• The US plans to remove a $10 million bounty on HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
• It follows a meeting between US diplomats and the Syrian rebel leader earlier this week.
• Jolani has worked to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West.

The US is set to remove a $10 million bounty on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the opposition group that spearheaded an offensive against Bashar Assad's Syrian government forces.

Barbara Leaf, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, made the announcement in an online briefing on Friday while discussing a diplomatic trip to Damascus where US representatives met with Jolani.

Leaf said the US delegation "welcomed positive messages" from the leader — who now goes by his birthname Ahmed al-Sharaa — and that he assured them that terrorist groups would not be allowed to pose a threat in Syria.

"And so based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years," she said.

Pressed for more information on why the US had decided to lift the bounty, Leaf said it was a "policy decision" that "aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," adding that it would be "a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy's head" while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.

HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations, traces its origins to Al Qaeda.

Jolani cut his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 to form a new group, which became HTS the following year.

He has worked for years to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West and has called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."

While stressing that the US would "judge by deeds" rather than words, Leaf said Jolani appeared "pragmatic" and noted that he had previously issued "moderate statements" on issues such as women's rights and the protection of equal rights for all communities.

The US delegation, which included Roger Carstens, the special envoy for hostage affairs, also used the Damascus trip to explore leads on the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.

Carstens said that they had had "a lot of information coming in" but that it remained unclear whether Tice was alive. "The bottom line is the information that we have right now doesn't confirm either in one way or the other."

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces had conducted an airstrike that killed ISIS leader Abu Yusif in eastern Syria.

One other ISIS operative was also killed in the strike that occurred on Thursday, the agency said in a release on Friday morning.

"As stated before, the United States — working with allies and partners in the region — will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute," CENTCOM Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla said. "ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria."

"We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria," he said.

US GROUP LOOKS FOR KIDNAPPED AMERICANS IN SYRIA AFTER FALL OF ASSAD REGIME

The agency said they carried out the targeted airstrike in the eastern province of Deir ez Zor in Syria, noting that it's part of their ongoing commitment to "disrupt and degrade efforts" by terrorists.

ISRAEL'S UN AMBASSADOR INSISTS NATION IS 'NOT GETTING INVOLVED' IN SYRIAN REGIME CHANGE

They said the area was previously controlled by the Syrian regime and Russian forces before the recent fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

Al-Assad fled to Russia earlier this month and ended a nearly 14-year struggle to maintain power in his country.

Attacks by the Turkish military on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have increased since the Syrian president fled to Russia on Dec. 8.

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Ryder said that in light of the instability in the region, as well as al-Assad's departure, there are 2,000 U.S. troops deployed in Syria.

Fox News Digital's Greg Wehner contributed to this report.

• New satellite images show activity at Russia's Hmeimim Air Base in Syria.
• The images appear to show the movement of military equipment over the past few days.
• Russia's long-held military footprint in Syria has been in question since the Assad regime collapsed.

Newly captured satellite imagery seems to show the Russians moving military equipment out of a strategic airbase in Syria as its long-standing presence in the country remains in limbo.

The images, captured by BlackSky and obtained by Business Insider, show new activity at the Hmeimim Air Base over the past few days and suggest that Russia is scaling down its military footprint in Syria following the shocking collapse of the Assad regime earlier this month.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the satellite imagery identified four Russian Il-76 strategic cargo planes — one of which is being loaded up with equipment — and a Yak-40 regional jet parked on the eastern flight line at Hmeimim on Sunday. Four S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers can be seen on the southern end of the apron.

The analyst also spotted three An-32 transport aircraft parked in the northwest corner of the airbase, a heavy equipment staging area on the western apron, and a disassembled Ka-52 attack helicopter being prepared for transport.

An image captured on Tuesday shows that much of the heavy equipment, including three of the S-400 launchers, is now missing from the base. One of the AN-32s is also gone, while a single AN-124 heavy transport aircraft is present.

The aircraft and equipment spotted in images on Sunday and Tuesday differ slightly from what was seen in satellite imagery last week. The analyst said three Il-76s, three An-32s, one Yak-40, and two S-400 launchers were present at the base on Friday. Two An-124s, one being loaded with cargo, could also be seen there.

The recent developments at Hmeimim appear to highlight a significant uptick in activity at the base compared to a week ago, just two days after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar Assad.

The fall of the regime brought new uncertainty for Russia's military footprint at Hmeimim and Tartus, a nearby naval facility on the Mediterranean Sea that has been emptied of warships.

Although there is evidence of Russia withdrawing some of its assets from Syria, it remains unclear at this time to what extent it may be pulling back and whether it is permanent or temporary. While some assets may be returning to Russia, others may simply be being relocated to nearby Tartus. Regardless, a drawdown of sorts appears to be underway.

Russia long supported Assad in Syria's devastating civil war, but the rebels now have the upper hand; they control the province where Hmeimim and Tartus are located. The Kremlin is said to be engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its bases with the new Syrian leadership.

The European Union's top diplomat said on Monday that some of the bloc's foreign ministers believe Russia's expulsion from Syria should be a condition for the country's new leadership because Moscow uses its bases there to facilitate activities to the south and in Africa.

"This is definitely of the worry of European security as well," Kaja Kallas, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters this week. "We will raise this issue with the leadership when we have the meetings on different levels."

The US and Ukraine have both confirmed the movement of Russian forces out of Syria, though the two governments have provided varying assessments on the scale of the withdrawal.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency said Monday that Russia was pulling troops from locations around Syria and consolidating them at Hmeimim and Tartus, "control over which the Kremlin seeks and hopes to maintain."

The HUR said that Moscow was using transport aircraft, including the Il-76 and An-124, to shuttle troops, weapons, and military equipment from Syria to Russia. Kyiv's aircraft identification is consistent with the planes spotted in satellite imagery of Hmeimim, although Business Insider could not independently confirm the reported activity.

The Kremlin relies heavily on Hmeimim and Tartus to project power across the region. Hmeimim is used to move military forces in and out of Africa, while Tartus is Russia's main naval base overseas and provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Losing access to both these bases, which are strategically valuable, would be a major setback for Moscow.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

Hezbollah lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, the group’s chief admitted Sunday. 

It was the first public acknowledgment of how upheaval in Syria had hurt the Iranian proxy, which had propped up Assad and is now fighting a war in Lebanon with Israel. Weapons to counter the Israeli campaign flowed from Iran through Syria and into Lebanon for Hezbollah. 

"Yes, Hezbollah lost in this phase its military supply line through Syria, but this loss is merely a detail in the overall of the resistance," said Naim Qassem in a televised address.

"The supply line might come back normally with the new regime, and we can always look for other ways, the resistance is flexible and can adapt," he added.

Assad’s ousting jeopardized Syria’s close ties to Iran. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the overthrow of Assad, had lamented that Syria had become a "playground for Iran." Hezbollah had fought off the rebel groups on Assad’s behalf. 

TURKEY SEEKS TO PURGE PRO-US KURDISH FORCE THAT HELPED DEFEAT ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA

As it became clear Assad’s grip on power was coming undone, Hezbollah and Iran’s military forces made their exit from Syria. 

Qassem took over as Hezbollah’s secretary general in October after its leader for three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli airstrikes south of Beirut. Hezbollah and Iran had long intervened on behalf of Assad in Syria’s 13-year civil war, but depleted by war with Israel, refused to come to his defense during the swift takeover of Damascus. 

Israel has also used the chaos of Assad’s fall to destroy the Syrian army’s strategic and chemical weapons in more than 350 airstrikes across the country. And it has moved into the buffer zone that separates it from Syria – the first time the Golan buffer zone has seen Israeli forces since 1973. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is not interested in meddling in Syria’s domestic politics but is looking to protect Israel’s borders. "We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground," he said Sunday, adding Israel would continue to strike "as necessary, in every arena and at all times" to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah. 

SYRIAN DICTATOR BASHAR ASSAD FLEES INTO EXILE AS ISLAMIST REBELS CONQUER COUNTRY 

HTS, a former al Qaeda affiliate, has sought to portray itself as a moderating force in Syria, and the U.S. has been in direct contact with the leading rebel group. But Israel is leery of the group’s long-term intentions. 

"The immediate risks to the country have not disappeared, and the latest developments in Syria are increasing the intensity of the threat – despite the moderate appearance rebel leaders are pretending to portray," Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday.

Hezbollah kicked up its cross-border attacks on Israel after Oct. 7, 2023, in support of Hamas, another Iranian proxy. Since late November, the cease-fire has mostly held, despite some Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives. 

Qassem defended his decision to stick to the cease-fire, saying it did not mean the end of Hezbollah's "resistance," but was necessary to "stop the aggression" of Israel in Lebanon. 

• Israel invoked a WWII precedent in trying to justify its pre-emptive strikes in Syria.
• During WWII, the Royal Navy attacked the fleet of its former ally to keep it from Nazi control.
• Both operations were borne in atmospheres of fear and crisis.

When Israel sank six Syrian warships at the port of Latakia this week amid larger attacks on the military remnants of the ousted Assad regime, Israel's leader invoked a precedent from World War II.

"This is similar to what the British Air Force did when it bombed the fleet of the Vichy regime, which was cooperating with the Nazis, so that it would not fall into the Nazis' hands," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Though Netanyahu's history was faulty — it was the Royal Navy rather than the RAF that struck the French fleet — his analogy was revealing. The attack on the port of Mers-el-Kebir on July 3, 1940, has gone down as either a courageous decision that saved Britain — or a treacherous and needless backstab of an ally.

At the least, it is one of Britain's most controversial decisions of the Second World War. Like Israel today, the British acted amid an atmosphere of crisis, haste and uncertainty. The Israeli goal is to keep the now-deposed Syrian government's huge arsenal — which includes chemical weapons and ballistic missiles — from falling into the hands of rebel groups, which are dominated by Islamic militants. For Britain, the goal was to keep Adolf Hitler's hands off the French fleet, the fourth-largest navy in the world in 1940.

In that chaotic summer of 1940, the situation looked grim. The German blitzkrieg had just conquered France and Western Europe, while the cream of the British Army had barely been evacuated — minus their equipment — from Dunkirk. If the Germans could launch an amphibious assault across the English Channel, the British Army was in no condition to repel them.

However, Operation Sealion — the Nazi German plan to invade Britain — had its own problems. The Kriegsmarine — the German Navy — was a fraction of the size of the Royal Navy, and thus too small to escort vulnerable troop transports. But Britain's Prime Minister Winston Churchill had to contemplate a situation he had never expected: a combined German-French battlefleet.

Technically, France had only agreed to an armistice — a permanent cease-fire — with Germany rather than surrender. France would be divided between German-occupied northern zone, and a nominally independent rump state of Vichy comprising southern France and the colonies of the French Empire. Vichy France would be allowed a meager army, and the French Navy would be confined to its home ports.

The British didn't trust French promises that its ships would be scuttled if the Germans tried to seize them. Why had France signed a separate peace with Germany after earlier pledging not to? Why didn't the French government choose to go into exile, and continue the war from its North African colonies as the British urged? London was well aware that the right-wing Vichy government — under Field Marshal Philippe Pétain, hero of the First World War — had more affection for the Third Reich than it did for Britain. With Germany master of Europe, Pétain sneered that Britain would soon "have its neck wrung like a chicken."

After Vichy rebuffed pleas to send the fleet to British ports, Churchill and his ministers decided the risk was too great. In late June 1940, the Royal Navy received orders for Operation Catapult. A task force — including the aircraft carrier Ark Royal and three battleships and battlecruisers — would be dispatched to the French naval base at Mers-el-Kebir, near the Algerian port of Oran. A powerful French squadron of four battleships and six destroyers were docked there, including the new battleships Dunkerque and Strasbourg.

The French were to be given six hours to respond to an ultimatum: sail their ships to British ports and fight the Germans, sail them to French Caribbean ports and sit out the war, demilitarize their ships at Mers-el-Kebir, or scuttle their vessels. When the local French commander tried to delay while summoning reinforcements, the British opened fire.

The ensuing battle was not the Royal Navy's most glorious. Caught in every admiral's nightmare — unprepared ships anchored in port — the French were simply smothered by British gunfire. The battleship Bretagne and two destroyers were sunk, two other battleships damaged, and 1,297 French sailors perished. The British suffered two dead.

This was no repeat of the Battle of Trafalgar, when the Royal Navy smashed a Franco-Spanish fleet off Spain in 1805. Most ships at Mers-el-Kebir were damaged rather than sunk, and the French fleet quickly relocated its scattered vessels to the heavily defended French port at Toulon (where they were scuttled in November 1942 when German troops occupied Vichy). Though Vichy didn't declare war on Britain — and only retaliated with a few minor attacks on British bases — it confirmed old French prejudices about British treachery and "perfidious Albion."

Britain's attack on Mers-el-Kebir was political as much as military. In the summer of 1940, many people — including some in the United States — believed that the British would be conquered or compelled to make peace with a victorious Germany. Churchill argued that Britain had to show its resolve to keep on fighting, not least if it hoped to persuade America to send tanks, ships and war materials via a Lend-Lease deal. Attacking a former ally may have been a demonstration of British resolve.

Israel's situation does not resemble that of Britain in 1940. Syria has never been an ally of Israel. The two nations have had an armistice since 1949, punctuated by multiple wars and clashes over the years. Britain acted out of a sense of weakness, while Israel is confident enough of its strength to hit targets in Syria.

Yet by citing Mers-el-Kebir as a precedent, Netanyahu proved a golden rule of international relations that applied in 1940 and still applies today: Nations always act in their own interests. Faced with a choice between respecting a former ally and defending Britain from invasion, Churchill chose the latter. Netanyahu didn't hesitate to do the same.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

• Israel launched widespread strikes on Syria to wipe out the remnants of the Assad regime's military.
• The strikes targeted Syrian weapon stockpiles after a rebel offensive ousted President Bashar Assad.
• Israeli warplanes and missile ships destroyed Syrian aircraft, naval ships, and weapon depots.

The Israel Defense Forces launched widespread strikes across Syria over the past two days to wipe out what remained of the Assad regime's military arsenal.

The Israeli Air Force carried out about 480 strikes targeting most of the country's strategic weapon stockpiles left behind after rebels forced Syrian leader Bashar Assad to flee the country.

About 350 of the strikes were crewed aircraft targeting Syrian military assets, including aircraft, ammunition depots, storage facilities, and missile and radar systems. The Israeli Navy also destroyed several military vessels docked at two Syrian naval ports. The Israeli army seized strategic positions in the Golan Heights abandoned by Syrian troops.

Israeli officials said the extensive strikes on Syria were intended to prevent the Assad government's military infrastructure and weapons from being used by extremists and potential foes. Israel is exploiting the Assad regime's fall to enhance its security in the long term as it uses blistering force to cripple Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The fall of Assad

After a decadeslong dictatorship, rebel forces seized control of the Syrian capital of Damascus over the weekend, forcing Assad to relinquish power and flee the country.

"We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," Hassan Abdul-Ghani, commander of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, wrote in a post on social media. "To the displaced people around the world, free Syria awaits you."

Former Syrian prime minister Ghazi al-Jalali remained in the country after the collapse of the Assad regime, saying the government is willing to cooperate and support "any leadership chosen by the Syrian people."

Creating a 'sterile defense zone'

While Israel supported ousting Assad, a staunch ally of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the situation in Syria is still "fraught with significant dangers" from the extremists now governing the country.

In the days after the dayslong rebel offensive ousted the Syrian dictator, Israel launched hundreds of strikes targeting Syrian military assets over 48 hours to prevent them "from falling into the hands of terrorist elements." HTS publicly split with the Al Qaeda affiliate from which it formed, but US officials believe it may still have links to Al Qaeda leaders.

"We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security," Netanyahu said.

"I authorized the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists," he said, adding that Israel "would like to form relations with the new regime in Syria."

The IDF said the strikes were part of a larger-scale mission known as Operation Bashan Arrow, intended to create a "sterile defense zone" by neutralizing potential threats from the neighboring country.

Sinking Syrian warships

Israeli forces attacked key Syrian naval facilities in the port cities of Al-Bayda and Latakia late Tuesday, where more than a dozen Syrian naval vessels were docked.

Photos of the decimated port showed half-submerged Syrian warships. Some of the damaged vessels were Osa-class missile boats, Soviet-era vessels whose 30mm turrets and mounted missile launchers could be seen in the wreckage.

The Syrian navy, the smallest branch of the country's armed forces, operated over a dozen of the high-speed — albeit outdated — vessels developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s.

Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz said Israeli Navy missile ships "destroyed Syria's navy overnight and with great success." It's not clear how many Syrian vessels were destroyed by Israeli warships in the overnight attack.

Satellite images of Latakia, a former stronghold of Assad, showed the charred wreckage of the naval ships. The IDF wrote in a post on X that "dozens of sea-to-sea missiles" with "significant explosive payloads" were also destroyed.

Destroying Syrian military aircraft

The IAF carried out an airstrike on the Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, once a key stronghold of the Assad regime's air force.

At least three major Syrian army air bases were attacked by Israeli warplanes, damaging dozens of helicopters and fighter jets, The Times of Israel reported. Locals living near the bases said they heard several explosions after the Israeli strikes appeared to ignite the ammunition stored there, the Associated Press reported.

Dismantling Syrian military infrastructure

In addition to decimating Syria's aerial and naval fleet, the IDF said it carried out strikes on 130 military assets, such as firing positions, antiaircraft batteries, missile and radar systems, and weapons production sites.

Crippling Syria's chemical weapons infrastructure

Israeli forces also destroyed the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus, a key facility thought to be testing and operating the country's covert chemical and biological weapons programs under the Assad regime.

The Barzeh facility was previously bombarded in 2018 by US, UK, and French forces in response to a poison sarin gas attack in Douma, Syria. The US found Assad's government responsible for the April 2018 chemical warfare attack that killed at least 40 people and injured over 100.

However, the head of the center's polymers department told Reuters at the time that the facility, now reduced to rubble, was used to research medicinal components that couldn't be imported, such as anti-venom and cancer treatments.

'Changing the face of the Middle East'

The fall of the Syrian regime weakens Iran's regional influence and could pose logistical and strategic challenges to Iran's regional proxies like the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran," Netanyahu said during a Monday press conference. "The axis has not yet disappeared, but as I promised — we are changing the face of the Middle East."

Despite the widespread strikes across Syria, Israeli military officials said the country's armed forces were operating beyond the Israeli-occupied demilitarized buffer zone in Golan Heights but not toward the Syrian capital.

"IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said at a briefing. "We are not involved in what's happening in Syria internally, we are not a side in this conflict, and we do not have any interest other than protecting our borders and the security of our citizens."

Katz, Israel's defense minister, said the country was advancing beyond Golan Heights to impose a "security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures" in southern Syria.

"With regard to what will be in the future, I'm not a prophet," Katz said. "It is important right now to take all necessary steps in the context of the security of Israel."

Countries in Europe are slamming the brakes on asylum cases filed by Syrian migrants in the wake of the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, but it is not yet clear whether the U.S. will take similar action.

The U.K. and Norway, along with E.U. countries of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Finland, Ireland and Sweden, have suspended applications from Syrians after the fall of the Assad regime.

While it does not necessarily mean those people will be returned to Syria, it puts those applications in limbo in a continent that saw a massive surge of Syrian migration during the 2015 European migration crisis.

TRUMP'S PLEDGE AGAINST ‘FOREVER WARS’ COULD BE TESTED WITH SYRIA IN HANDS OF JIHADIST FACTIONS 

The European Union has also said that conditions are not currently in place for the safe return of nationals to Syria.

While Europe has seen a considerably more sizeable influx of migrants from Syria than the U.S., it is not clear how those cases in the U.S. will change, if at all, given the changing political dynamics in the Middle Eastern country.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services handle asylum cases, and asylum officers are instructed to consider changes in circumstances when considering those cases. So, if an applicant’s country becomes more stable, then the consideration of that case changes dynamically. Therefore, if Syria stabilizes, it may make it harder for Syrians to receive a positive ruling on their cases.

US GROUP LOOKS FOR KIDNAPPED AMERICANS IN SYRIA AFTER FALL OF ASSAD REGIME: WON'T ‘LEAVE A STONE UNTURNED' 

But so far, there have been no pauses of Syrian asylum cases announced by the Biden administration. The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the matter.

One factor that could change in the next year is Temporary Protected Status, which grants deportation protection and work permits for nationals of countries deemed unsafe. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas extended and redesignated Syria for TPS in January, and that lasts until September 2025.

Should the Trump administration choose not to extend or redesignate Syria for TPS, it would require those who are no longer protected from deportation and who do not have another legal status to leave the U.S. or face deportation.

However, the number of Syrians protected under TPS is relatively few, compared to other nationalities and the situation in Europe. DHS estimated that around 8,000 Syrians were eligible for TPS in January.

The Center for Immigration Studies cited statistics showing that the number of Syrians granted asylum between 2011 and 2023 was just over 7,000. Meanwhile, data obtained by Fox News Digital this week shows that there are 741 Syrians with deportation orders on Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) non-detained docket. In Europe, around 183,000 Syrians applied for asylum in 2023, according to the Associated Press.

The U.N. refugee agency has called for "patience and vigilance" for Syrian migrants, arguing that much will depend on whether Syria's new government is respectful of law and order.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

• In new satellite imagery, Russia's military appears to be packing up equipment at a key airbase in Syria.
• The images show transport aircraft ready to load cargo at the Hmeimim Air Base on Friday.
• Russia's military footprint in Syria fell into uncertainty after rebel forces ousted Bashar Assad.

Russia appears to be packing up military equipment at one of its bases in Syria, new satellite images show. They are the latest indication that Moscow is scaling down, if not withdrawing, its footprint from the country following the stunning collapse of the Assad regime.

Images captured Friday by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at Russia's Hmeimim Air Base. The front of the planes are lifted, indicating that they are ready to load equipment or cargo.

In another image of the Hmeimim base, a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter is seen being taken apart and likely prepared for transport, according to Maxar. The company said elements of an S-400 air-defense unit are also being prepared for departure from the weapon's previous deployment site near the coastal city of Latakia.

Additional imagery collected Friday shows Russia's warships are still missing from its base in Tartus, a port city south of Hmeimim on the Mediterranean Sea. Several frigates, replenishment oilers, and a submarine could be seen at the facility earlier in the month, but they were all gone by Monday.

Some of the vessels have been spotted several miles off the coast. It's unclear whether the warships will return to Tartus; their presence at sea could be for safety reasons rather than a full evacuation.

The US has not confirmed any major Russian military withdrawal from Syria but has pointed out that some forces are, in fact, departing.

"What we're seeing is a consolidation of assets, including some Russian forces leaving Syria," Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters Wednesday. "What they're doing with their facilities and bases, that's for them to speak to."

Analysts, likewise, have called attention to the latest activity.

"A larger number of Russian transport aircraft can now be seen at Khmeimim," Michael Kofman, a Russia expert and senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a social media post.

"The S-400 battery is packing up for transport. While tactical aviation is still there, RF appears to be consolidating at Khmeimim and Tartus," he said. "In short, a withdrawal is under way."

Even if Russia is moving forces out of its bases in Syria, it may only be a partial military withdrawal and not a complete evacuation.

The new satellite imagery comes a day after Ukraine's military intelligence agency, known as the HUR, said Moscow was evacuating its bases in Syria and has been flying multiple military transport aircraft between Hmeimim and Russia every day.

BI was unable to independently verify Kyiv's assessment.

Russia's military presence in Syria became tenuous last weekend as rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Bashar Assad, the country's longtime dictator. Assad has since fled to Moscow with his family.

Russia supported Assad in Syria's civil war for years, in return securing a foothold in the country, but the rebels now have the upper hand. They control the province where Tartus and Hmeimim are located. The Kremlin is engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its facilities with the new Syrian leadership, but it's unclear if any arrangements are official.

Losing both Tartus and Hmeimim would be a setback for the Kremlin, which relies heavily on the bases to project its power across the region and beyond. Tartus is Russia's main naval base overseas, providing the country with critical access to a warm-water port. Moscow uses Hmeimim to move military forces in and out of Africa. That makes these bases strategically valuable.

War analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, wrote on Thursday that Russia "is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria."

President-elect Donald Trump is gearing up for his second White House term just weeks after the abrupt toppling of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria— a pivotal moment that could test Trump's long-held promises to end U.S. involvement in so-called "forever wars" in the Middle East or putting more American boots on the ground in these countries.

With roughly six weeks to go before he takes office, Trump does not appear to be backing down on his promises of pursuing a foreign policy agenda directed toward prioritizing issues at home and avoiding entanglements overseas.

However, Trump's promises about ending U.S. military commitments abroad could be tested in Syria, where conditions in the country are now vastly different from Trump's first term — creating a government seen as ripe for exploitation by other foreign powers, including governments or terrorist groups.

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"This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved," Trump said on Truth Social over the weekend, as rebel-backed fighters advanced into Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to Moscow for safe haven. 

Trump, for his part, has acknowledged the foreign policy situation he stands to inherit in 2025 could be more complex than he saw in his first term, especially in the Middle East. 

It "certainly seems like the world is going a little crazy right now," Trump told leaders earlier this week in Paris, where he attended a grand reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral. 

Here is a rundown of what Trump did in Syria in 2019 and how his actions could be insufficient today.

In Syria, the speed at which rebel forces successfully wrested back control of major cities and forced Assad to flee to Moscow for safe haven took many by surprise, including analysts and diplomats with years of experience in the region. 

It is currently an "open question" who is currently in charge in Syria, White House National Security communications advisor John Kirby told reporters earlier this week. 

However, the rebel-led group that ousted Assad is currently designated as a terrorist organization in the U.S., raising fresh uncertainty over whether Trump might see their rise to power as a threat to U.S. national security and whether he might move to position U.S. troops in response.

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The conditions are also ripe for exploration by other governments and adversaries, which could seize on the many power vacuums created by the collapse of Assad's regime. 

In the days following Assad's flight to Moscow, senior Biden administration officials stressed that the U.S. will act only in a supporting capacity, telling reporters, "We are not coming up with a blueprint from Washington for the future of Syria."

"This is written by Syrians. The fall of Assad was delivered by Syrians," the administration official said. 

Still, this person added, "I think it’s very clear that the United States can provide a helping hand, and we are very much prepared to do so." It's unclear whether Trump will see the situation the same.

In October 2019, Trump announced the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northeastern Syria, news that came under sharp criticism by some diplomats and foreign policy analysts, who cited fears that the decision risked destabilizing one of the only remaining stable parts of Syria and injecting further volatility and uncertainty into the war-torn nation. 

However, at the time, that part of the country was stable. U.S. troops were stationed there alongside British and French troops, who worked alongside the Syrian Defense Force to protect against a resurgence of Islamic State activity. However, the situation is different now, something that Trump's team does not appear to be disputing, for its part.

Additionally, while seeking the presidency in 2024, Trump continued his "America first" posture that many believe helped him win the election in 2016 — vowing to crack down on border security, job creation, and U.S. oil and gas production, among other things — incoming Trump administration officials have stressed the degree to which they've worked alongside the Biden administration to ensure a smooth handover when it comes to geopolitical issues.

Unlike his first White House transition, Trump's preparations for a second presidential term have been remarkably detailed, efficient and policy oriented. That includes announcing nominations for most Cabinet positions and diplomats, and releasing policy blueprints for how the administration plans to govern over the next four years.  

"For our adversaries out there that think this is a time of opportunity that they can play one administration off the other, they’re wrong, and we… we are hand in glove," Trump's pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., told Fox News in an interview following Trump's election in November. "We are one team with the United States in this transition."

• Russia is dispatching four ships to its bases in Syria, per Ukraine's main intelligence directorate.
• They will evacuate weapons and military equipment from its key base in Tartus, they said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

Russia is sending four ships to its bases in Syria to evacuate weapons and military equipment, according to Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

In a Telegram post on Thursday, the GUR said that Russia was moving its Ivan Gren-class large landing ship and the Ropucha-class tank landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Norwegian Sea to Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Their mission, it said, is to evacuate weapons and equipment.

It also said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships left Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast, and St Petersburg, respectively, and are heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base.

The trips are long voyages, requiring the ships to sail long stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russia was a close ally of Syria's recently-toppled ruler Bashar Assad. It struck a 49-year lease with his government for two bases in Syria — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

However, these bases have come under threat after Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Assad on Sunday and formed a transitional government.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

The TASS state news agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying that Russia established direct contact with HTS in Damascus.

Sources familiar with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday that talks were taking place for Russian forces to stay at the bases and that Russia was nearing a deal with Syria's new leadership.

Images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider on Tuesday showed Russian aircraft still present at the Hmeimim Air Base, but warships no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Videos captured by The Times of London's Middle East correspondent on Friday showed Russian trucks entering the Hmeimim Air Base.

On Thursday, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia's ships may be on the move as a precaution in case it needs more comprehensive evacuations.

They also said that it would probably take weeks for the Russian ships to get to Tartus.

• Russia faces the prospect of losing key bases in Syria but still has moves left.
• Keeping its bases may come down to lucrative deals with the now victorious groups it had attacked.
• These bases are critical to Russian influence in the Middle East and would not be easily replaced.

Syria has been central to Russian plans to project power across the Middle East — as evidenced by the recent signing of a 49-year lease for Syrian bases.

But after the ouster of the ally it propped up, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Russian officials face the likelihood its days in Syria are numbered.

"Russia's certainly doing everything in its power to maintain a presence in Syria while preparing for the possibility that this is the end," Ben Dubow, a nonresident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Business Insider.

Moscow is doing so by "not only leaving their ships out at sea but, according to [Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's] official Telegram channel, disbursing weapons to local Alawite groups," Dubow said. "Reaching out to the new leadership is both an act of desperation and an acceptance of the new reality."

This is a look at the dimming options Russia now faces.

Reduced footprint

Shortly after Assad fled to Russia, a deal was reportedly reached with the interim authorities, led by the victorious Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Islamist movement, guaranteeing the security of these bases, and the armed opposition presently has no plans to attack them. Still, it's far from clear that the future leadership in Damascus is willing to tolerate a long-term Russian military presence.

For now, some Russian warships are anchored outside the Tartus base as a precaution, and there are other Russian military movements in Syria.

"There is quite a lot of military equipment that has been hastily withdrawn to the coastal region or is being withdrawn at the moment from various remote regions," Anton Mardasov, a nonresident scholar with the Middle East Institute's Syria program, told BI. "So, the ships that are going to Syria from the Baltic Fleet and the military transport planes that are coming to Hmeimim may be taking out this excess equipment."

Alongside its Tartus naval base, Russia also has a sizable airbase in Latakia named Hmeimim, which it has used as a launchpad to conduct airstrikes throughout Syria since intervening in the country's bloody civil war in 2015.

"It may not be a question of a complete evacuation of the bases right now," Mardasov said. "Rather, a new government, possibly appointed after March 2025, should issue a decree denouncing or legitimizing Damascus' past treaty with Moscow."

A bare minimum force in Syria would "deprive" Russia of its capacity to counter NATO on its southern flank, Mardasov said.

Renewed access

Russia signed an extendable 49-year lease agreement with Assad's regime in 2017 for these bases, seemingly entrenching its forces in the Middle Eastern country for generations to come. The treaty even granted the Russian military legal immunity for its personnel in the country, meaning they would not be held accountable for killing Syrians.

"I can't speak to whether the 2017 agreements are binding, but at this point, only Russia could enforce them, and there's no sign they have the will or capacity to do so," Dubow said. "If Damascus orders Russia to leave, Moscow would be hard-pressed to withstand a siege."

Russia's best hope may be to try to extend its access until new deals can be made with the new Syrian leaders. The offers will likely have to be very lucrative to win over a Syrian opposition inured to Russian airstrikes and ruthless mercenaries.

Russia would likely offer money and other economic incentives, such as discounted refined fuel products, in return for Syria's new rulers tolerating its military presence.

But these would likely be short-term arrangements.

"In the long run, it is unlikely Russia's use of the facilities can be preserved considering considerable antipathy to Russia among Syria's new authorities after Russia's years of support to the Assad regime," said Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE.

Syria's interim authorities could even benefit from a continued Russian presence in the short term, he said. That could counterbalance the US presence on the other side of the country and serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations with other powers.

Complete withdrawal

Russia's choices are stark if it can't reach a deal. It can try to guard bases in an uneasy stand-off with HTS-led forces, which comes with risks of its troops being harmed or captured and subjected to trials that would humiliate Russia. Or it can airlift out its forces and materiel.

Orr, the RANE analyst, doesn't anticipate a hasty Russian withdrawal from Syria. Instead, Russia is probably preparing "for an orderly withdrawal from the facilities, likely after failed attempts to negotiate their preservation in the coming months," Orr told BI.

"Their loss would harm Russia's power projection because they are crucial logistical points for Russian military operations in Africa, the Middle East, and Russia's global naval operations, and Russia does not have immediately available alternatives to the facilities."

Tartus remains Moscow's only naval facility in the Mediterranean, making it vital for any extended Russian Navy deployment south of the Black Sea and Turkish Straits. Along with Hmeimim, it serves as a hub for supporting Russian military and mercenary deployments in Africa.

Moscow has had access to Tartus since the Soviet era in the 1970s. Furthermore, Russia invested in its expansion in the 2010s, making its potential loss all the more painful.

One alternative Russian port outside of Syria could be Tobruk in eastern Libya, which is controlled by the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar. CEPA's Dubow is skeptical that the Libyan port near Egypt could be any substitute.

"Tobruk would not come close to making up for Tartus and Latakia," Dubow said. "It's both smaller and much further from Russia. Even a significant reduction of Russian presence in Syria would immensely damage Russia's power projection capacity."

In this case, could Russia's loss be Turkey's gain? Turkey is close to the HTS-led coalition, but it too may lack the cachet to win permanent bases.

"The Turkish Navy doesn't need the Tartus base, and the possibility will depend on security conditions on the ground, which are still unclear many months from now, so it doesn't seem likely in the near term," RANE's Orr said.

"But in general, the Tartus port is something that if there is a unified government in Syria, they will definitely try to leverage for security and economic ties with a great power, or remove the base as part of geopolitical balancing between powers."

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.

• Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syria since Bashar Assad's ouster.
• Its forces have also advanced into the Golan Heights, a previously demilitarized zone in southwestern Syria.
• Israel's defense minister said it intended to create a "defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria."

Israel says it has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syria in the days since Bashar Assad's regime collapsed.

On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said it had "struck most of the strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria" in 48 hours as part of a push to stop the weapons "falling into the hands of terrorist elements."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday welcomed the toppling of Assad but said the moment is "fraught with significant dangers."

Assad's downfall followed a surprise rebel offensive led by the Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which traces its roots to Al-Qaeda.

Per Tuesday's IDF statement, the Israeli military had conducted strikes on targets including antiaircraft batteries, Syrian Air Force airfields, and weapons production sites.

It said the strikes took out "numerous" strategic assets, including cruise and Scud missiles, tanks, radars, and attack helicopters.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which gathers data from on-the-ground sources in Syria, said on Tuesday that it had documented nearly 310 Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory since Assad's government collapsed on December 8.

The Israeli navy also hit two ports, one in Al-Bayda and one in Latakia, the IDF said.

The IDF did not say how many ships were struck, but Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the mission had been a "great success" and that the navy had destroyed the Syrian fleet overnight, CNN reported.

The IDF declined to clarify what proportion of Syria's military capability had been taken out when approached by Business Insider for comment.

Katz said that Israel intended to create a "sterile defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria," adding that it's "in order to prevent terrorism in Syria from taking root," per The Guardian's translation.

The US and Turkey have also been reported to be carrying out airstrikes in Syria since Assad's fall.

Washington has targeted ISIS camps and operatives in Syria with precision strikes, President Joe Biden said on Sunday.

Jonathan Lord, a former political-military analyst at the Pentagon, previously told Business Insider the US military was hitting as many targets as possible as it was "rightly worried that ISIS could slip through the cracks in the chaos."

For its part, Ankara has reportedly launched a drone strike on a military site in an area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force, which it views as a terror group.

Troops on the ground

The strikes come as Netanyahu announced that he had sent forces into the Golan Heights, a formerly demilitarized buffer zone in southwestern Syria.

In a video address on Sunday, Netanyahu described this as a "temporary defensive position" designed "to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel."

Israel has denied reports that its forces have advanced beyond the buffer zone.

An anonymous Syrian source previously told Reuters that troops had reached Qatana, a town close to the Syrian capital Damascus.

Business Insider could not independently confirm the report. The IDF declined to comment.

Several Arab countries have criticized the move into the Golan Heights.

Egypt's foreign ministry said on Monday that it constituted "an exploitation of the state of fluidity and vacuum in Syria to occupy more Syrian territories," the Egypt Independent reported.

The Arab League said that Israel was "taking advantage of the developments in the internal situation in Syria," per CNN.

Stéphane Dujarric, a spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, confirmed at a press briefing on Monday that the Israeli military had entered the Golan Heights and was stationed in at least three locations there.

Dujarric said that peacekeepers at the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force had told Israel that such actions would violate the 1974 disengagement agreement and that there should be no military forces or activities in the area.

Netanyahu said that the agreement had "collapsed" and that "the Syrian army abandoned its positions."

• Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to Syrian rebel forces, The Washington Post reported.
• Groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Bashar Assad's decades-old rule on Sunday.
• The Ukrainian aid played a modest role in toppling him, Western intel sources told the outlet.

Ukrainian intelligence supplied Syrian rebels with about 150 drones and 20 drone operators last month, shortly before the offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, The Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities.

Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives as part of efforts to weaken Russia and its Syrian allies in the region, sources familiar with Ukraine's operations abroad told the Post.

Business Insider was unable to independently verify the report.

The military aid played a modest role in ousting Assad, Western intelligence sources told the outlet.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Assad after a lightning two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and ended Assad's 24-year rule.

The Post's report would be in keeping with Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's influence abroad.

Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.

A source within Ukraine's military intelligence agency told the outlet in June that since the start of the year, Ukrainian operatives had supported Syrian rebels in inflicting "numerous" strikes on Russian military facilities in the region.

In September, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Ukrainian intelligence emissaries in Idlib, in Syria's northwest, were conducting "new dirty operations" and recruiting rebel fighters there.

Last month, Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence was arming "terrorists" in Idlib and that Ukrainian specialists were present there.

Ukraine's intelligence services didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.

Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that if Ukraine is confirmed to have sent drones and drone operators to Syria, it would be surprising given how "problematic" the situation is in eastern Ukraine.

"I am not sure Ukraine can gain a lot by engaging in these types of operations," Libman said. "Rather, it will simply waste resources it needs to fight the war on Ukrainian soil itself."

The collapse of Assad, however, could jeopardize Russia's military footprint in Syria, where it could lose control over the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Russia has used those bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

Satellite images taken earlier this week by Maxar Technologies, obtained by BI, show Russian aircraft still present at Hmeimim, but Russian warships no longer present at Tartus.

• Russia hasn't mass-evacuated troops and gear out of its key bases in Syria.
• A senior analyst said the signs would be clear — such a retreat would be difficult to hide.
• Russia said it's trying to work out a deal for its bases with the new Syrian government.

The Russian military is still stationed at its Syrian bases after the fall of Bashar Assad's government, and analysts say an evacuation will be easy to spot.

The Kremlin has two major facilities in the country that were hosted by Assad — the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base — which are crucial to Russian access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

According to Russian state media, rebel forces now control the Latakia province, where these bases are located.

With Moscow's long-term access to those bases now under question, satellite images show that its warships have vacated Tartus since Monday. Several were spotted holding positions about 15 km from the coast.

It's unclear if these vessels will return.

But satellite images also show that a full evacuation of Tartus hasn't happened, Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times.

"And if they have to leave Tartus, you'd actually see more ships show up to help move things out," she told the outlet.

It's possible that Russia moved its ships temporarily out to sea to protect them while conditions in Syria remain uncertain.

At Khmeimim, which Russia uses as its primary channel for flying troops into Africa, satellite images this week showed that much of the Kremlin's equipment, including fighter jets and helicopters, remained on-site.

Massicot wrote in a thread on X that an evacuation of the airbase "will be obvious."

"An air evacuation would take hundreds of sorties of IL-76 and An-124, not the handful identified yesterday at Khmeimim," she wrote, referring to several Ilyushin and Antonov freight airliners spotted at Khmeimim earlier this week.

"When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion," Massicot added.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that Russia is likely delaying a total evacuation as it tries to suss out a deal with a new Syrian government.

They said Russia is still maintaining its assets in Khmeimim, and that a "lack of a coherent Russian response" indicates Moscow is still watching the situation.

"The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria," the analysts wrote.

The Kremlin hopes it won't have to evacuate

Russia is also publicly signaling that it isn't giving up on its vital bases.

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters that Russia has been in contact with "those capable of ensuring the security of military bases."

Meanwhile, Russian state media outlet TASS cited an unnamed source in the Kremlin saying that Syrian opposition leaders had guaranteed the safety of Tartus and Khmeimim.

On the other hand, Ukraine's intelligence division said on Tuesday that Russia has a plan to evacuate Khmeimim with Antonovs and Ilyushins, and that Russian troops have begun dismantling equipment at Tartus under the supervision of special forces. It did not say how it sourced this information.

Russia's future in Syria unclear

Despite those forecasts, it's unclear how a post-Assad Syria will take shape. Rebel forces in the country were largely splintered, consisting of various separate factions sharing the common cause of toppling Assad.

Mohammed al-Bashir, who ran rebel-held pockets of northern Syria, said on Tuesday that he had been named interim prime minister.

The Islamist group at the helm of the rebel victory, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former Al Qaeda-affiliated fighter who's said to have cut ties with the terrorist organization.

But he is still listed as a terrorist by the US, with a $10 million bounty on his head. Though he has been a prominent contender for leadership, he has not taken an official leadership position as of press time.

• The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has raised questions about Russia's future in Syria.
• Russia has long enjoyed a military footprint at two key bases in the country.
• New satellite images show what Moscow's warships and aircraft are doing now.

Newly captured satellite imagery shows what the Russian military in Syria is doing following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show Russian aircraft are still present at the Khmeimim airbase, but Moscow's warships are no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Russia supported Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar Assad, in his brutal civil war. But Moscow's military footprint in the country fell into uncertainty over the weekend after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Assad following a rapid offensive that lasted just days. Assad has since fled to Moscow.

The Kremlin relies heavily on its bases in Syria to project its power, and losing them would be a major setback, not something that Russia needs amid its war in Ukraine. Tartus is Russia's main naval base abroad, and it provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Meanwhile, Moscow uses Khmeimim to move military forces in and out of Africa.

A satellite image captured on Monday shows Russian aircraft, helicopters, and military equipment at the Khmeimim airbase near the coastal city of Latakia. At the adjacent civilian Bassel Al-Assad International Airport, lots of activity was spotted.

It is unclear at this time if assets have already left and whether Russia will hold its position at this base.

Imagery captured on Tuesday shows Russia's warships are missing from its naval facility in Tartus, a port city located on the Mediterranean Sea. At least two frigates were spotted several miles off the coast.

Five Russian surface vessels — three frigates and two replenishment oilers — and a submarine were spotted at the Tartus base earlier in the week, but they had left the facility by Monday and were still gone the next day.

It's unclear if and when the warships will return to port; their presence out in the Mediterranean could be for safety reasons amid all the uncertainty on land rather than a full evacuation from Tartus.

The new imagery comes amid questions over Russia's future control of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases, which it has held for years. The country's defense ministry has not publicly signaled any major force posture changes.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency said that Moscow was withdrawing from its bases and evacuating its forces. BI was unable to confirm this independently. The ships are out of port, but the specific reason isn't certain.

The Kremlin said that it is taking steps to ensure the security of its bases through conversations with the new Syrian leadership as details of the transition government become clearer. Russian state media has said rebel forces control the province where its facilities are located.

If Russia is unable to retain access to these bases, it could spell trouble for Moscow in the region.

Conflict analysts with the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, wrote in an assessment on Monday that "the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia's ability to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO's southern flank, and operate in Africa."

• American warplanes pounded Syria with airstrikes as the Assad regime fell on Sunday.
• They hit dozens of targets in support of the anti-ISIS mission, which officials say will continue.
• The US isn't the only military conducting strikes amid the uncertain situation in Syria.

The US military has carried out extensive airstrikes in Syria since the Assad regime collapsed over the weekend, and it's not the only country on the hunt for targets in this uncertain moment.

American, Israeli, and Turkish forces have all been involved in bombing targets across Syria over the past few days in actions said to be in support of their respective national security interests.

For the US, this means continuing to go after the Islamic State, as it has done for years, but with an intensity to keep the group at bay. The Biden administration has stated that this mission will continue despite uncertainty about the future of Syria's leadership.

The US has repeatedly said that it is committed to the enduring defeat of ISIS. "We don't want to give ISIS an opportunity to exploit what's going on," White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday, adding, "They love nothing more than ungoverned space."

Widespread military action in Syria

As rebel forces reached Damascus on Sunday and Syrian President Bashar Assad fled the country, US Air Force B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets, and A-10 attack aircraft bombed ISIS targets in central Syria. The widespread strikes hit the terrorist group's leaders, operatives, and camps, said US Central Command, which oversees Middle East operations.

A senior administration official, speaking to reporters, described the combat operation as "significant" and said the American warplanes dropped around 140 munitions to hit 75 targets. The US military said the goal of the strikes was to prevent ISIS from reconstituting in central Syria.

Jonathan Lord, a former political-military analyst at the Pentagon, told Business Insider the US military is "rightly worried that ISIS could slip through the cracks in the chaos," so it is hitting as many targets as possible.

Retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw US military operations in the Middle East in the 2010s as the Centcom commander, told BI that it's "good" the US is sending a clear message and taking action to prevent ISIS from exploiting the void in central Syria.

He added that it's important for the US to maintain a small presence in eastern Syria, calling it "a very effective and efficient way to keep tabs on this threat."

The widespread bombing since Sunday has, however, not been limited to just US actions. Israel has carried out over 300 airstrikes across neighboring Syria, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor.

Israel has targeted the remnants of Assad's former military, including aircraft, ammunition depots, weapons storage facilities, warships, radar systems, and additional assets, the SOHR said. Israeli officials have said these strikes are intended to prevent weaponry from falling into the hands of potential foes.

"Israel is taking no chances with their security and not waiting to find out if the new Syrian government is friendly or hostile," said Lord, who is now the director of the Middle East Security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.

The Israeli military has also sent its ground forces across the Syrian border beyond a United Nations-monitored buffer zone that separates the two countries. The UN has criticized the move, which Israel said is a measure to protect its citizens amid the uncertainty in Damascus.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told BI that the actions are a "combined effort to try to minimize as much as possible the risk of growing military challenges following the current situation in Syria."

He said the Israeli approach likely includes diplomatic efforts to complement the airstrikes and buffer zone operation.

Meanwhile, a Turkish drone attacked a military site in an area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, the SOHR said on Tuesday. Ankara, which views the nearby SDF as a terror group, has targeted Kurdish forces for years. The US frequently works closely with the SDF on counter-ISIS operations.

"The Turks have a legitimate counter-terrorism threat that they, too, have a right to deal with," Kirby, the White House spokesperson, said in response to a reporter's question about action against Kurdish groups.

The widespread military actions come on the heels of the shock collapse of the Syrian Army amid a stunning, only dayslong rebel offensive that removed Assad from power. The longtime dictator had relied extensively on military support from Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah to keep opposition forces in check.

US officials are blaming the fall of the Assad regime on the reality that these three actors have been weakened and distracted lately by their respective conflicts with Ukraine and Israel. Russia, in particular, used to exercise significant control over Syrian airspace, but the future of Moscow's military footprint in the country is now unclear.

A top Israeli diplomat insisted his nation is "not getting involved" in Syria’s domestic politics after the nation launched an aggressive campaign of airstrikes and seized control of a buffer zone in Syria.

"We are not getting involved in what's happening domestically inside Syria. But we have concerns about our border," Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News Digital. 

"It’s been a quiet border, relatively, but we hope it will continue to be the same." 

Israel has launched an assault on military and chemical weapons sites within Syria, fearing they could fall into the wrong hands after the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad and his government over the weekend. 

The ouster left a power vacuum that leaves Israel and the U.S. to wonder which forces may seize dominance in the nation and how friendly they might be. 

HERE IS WHO IS VYING FOR POWER IN SYRIA AFTER THE FALL OF BASHAR AL-ASSAD

In that vacuum, Israel moved troops into the Golan buffer zone for the first time since it was established after the 1973 Mideast war. 

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have condemned the Israeli incursion, accusing it of exploiting the situation. 

Danon seemed hopeful the next Syrian government would not be under the thumb of Iran but warned "bad actors" had been involved in the overthrow of Assad.

"Iran was heavily invested in Syria. And I'm sure that today it will change, and the Iranians will not be welcome anymore in Syria. So, on that front, I think it's an achievement. But, at the same day, we have to look what's happening on other fronts," said Danon. 

"We have to remember that it's not like a peaceful revolution. You know, they walked with al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. So, we have to pay attention to that."

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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was the key faction behind the fall of Damascus and the fleeing of Assad and now controls the capital city. But the Islamist militant group was founded as an offshoot of al Qaeda, and its leader has a $10 million bounty on his head. 

The group in recent years has worked to soften its image and lobbied to be delisted as a terrorist organization by the U.S.

Israel has also taken control of Mount Hermon, the highest point on the border between the two countries and a blind spot in its defenses that Iran had been exploiting to send low-flying drones. 

"That was a defensive, temporary act," said Danon. "We want to see what’s happening there." 

The ambassador said Israel hopes Syria will have a "better future," but its only goal is to "not allow terrorists to be on the fence." 

"For more than 50 years, the Assad family tortured the Syrian people, massacred hundreds of thousands of civilians. So, we are the one humanitarian point of view. We do hope that they will have a better life."

After more than a decade of war in Syria, hundreds of inmates in one of the country's most notorious prisons are being reunited with their families.

• The downfall of Assad has threatened Russia's military presence in Syria along with its wider strategic objectives.
• Russia's bases in Syria made it a major diplomatic player in the Middle East.
• The bases were also crucial for its activities in Africa.

The fall of Bashar Assad has thrown Russia's military presence in Syria into question. It also poses a threat to Russia's ability to project power throughout the Middle East and beyond.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Syria's longtime autocratic ruler.

It followed a dizzying two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and many are now trying to work out what will come next for the country.

Russia has been a close ally of Syria and has leases on two military bases in the country, giving it a strategic foothold in the Middle East.

"It hits them hard," Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, said of Russia.

He added: "Syria has been their most reliable Arab ally."

A springboard to power

In 2017, Syria granted Russia a 49-year lease on the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base, in return for military assistance.

Russia has used the bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

"These bases are the most important bases outside the direct sphere of Russian influence," Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told Business Insider.

Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND, told BI that despite its massive landmass, Russia "doesn't have great geography for power projection."

"It doesn't have warm water ports that have direct access to the oceans," she added. "And so having a port in the Mediterranean is incredibly strategically useful."

Hmeimim, meanwhile, gives Russia a refueling base and overflight access throughout the Middle East and on to Africa, she said.

On Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia had pulled two ships from Tartus, and had transferred weapons from Hmeimim.

BI was unable to independently verify the report.

But satellite images captured by Planet Labs PBC show Russian warships that had been seen in Tartus earlier this month were gone as of Monday.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia intended to have serious discussions with future Syrian authorities about access to the bases, but that it is too soon for now.

The potential loss of influence in Syria is not just about state power. The bases have also allowed support for the activities of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.

"If you look at the Wagner footprint in Africa, you can tell that it's been enabled by the fact that they have that access in Syria to support those operations," said Dailey.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, losing the bases in Syria will "immediately" interrupt Wagner's rotation and resupply efforts.

Russia's ambitions for global leadership

Russia's involvement in Syria is a legacy of the Soviet era when the USSR traditionally maintained strong ties with other socialist states.

Russia propped up the Assad regime for more than a decade, notably sending aid during the 2011 Arab Spring, and troops and weapons to help counter the uprising in 2015.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had many reasons to stick his neck out for Assad.

"By backing Assad, Russia positioned itself as an indispensable player in regional politics, thereby increasing its diplomatic leverage," said Ali Bilgic, a professor in international relations and Middle East politics at the UK's Loughborough University.

But the huge cost of invading Ukraine appears to have forced Russia to choose between the two.

It "really speaks to how stretched thin Russian forces are," according to Dailey.

Putin has based Russia's international stature on the idea it can play a major role in different parts of the world, said Cristian Nitoiu, a Russia-focused lecturer in diplomacy and foreign affairs, also at Loughborough University.

Yet Putin's refusal to help Assad this time "basically shows that Russia was unable to support one of its long-lasting friends," Nitoiu said.

"The events in Syria can be seen as a sort of strategic failure on the part of Russia, and the optics look really bad," he added.

An uncertain future

In a statement on Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

Russia has called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham a terror group — so the fact that they are communicating with rebel groups now "demonstrates the importance of these bases," Dailey said.

HTS is also designated a terror group by the US and the UN.

What the US does regarding events in Syria will also be pivotal to what sort of foothold Russia can maintain, Loughborough University's Bilgic said.

On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

Should the US withdraw all involvement, Russia could exploit any ensuing power vacuum. But "this scenario appears improbable," Bilgic said.

In fact, diminishing Russian influence in Syria is a huge strategic draw for the US, he said, adding that there is also a concern that a new Russia-backed government could give room to ISIS, as well as threats to Israeli security.

Russia's presence in Syria has also helped it shape its objectives in energy markets, Bilgic said.

"Economically, the Tartus base played a role in Russia's energy strategy, helping to counter competing projects like the Qatar-Turkey pipeline," he said.

A grim reminder

What has happened in Syria in recent days may lead to some sleepless nights in Russia.

"I think it will rattle some folks in the Kremlin to see just how quickly Russia's military had to withdraw," Dailey said.

Assad's fall may also be a grim reminder for those in power in Russia of the necessity of crushing domestic resistance quickly, she said.

"Anyone in the Kremlin, because they've studied Russian history, knows that an autocratic regime can crumble very quickly."