President-elect Trump tangled with a reporter who asked him Monday if he would entertain the idea of preemptive strikes on Iran.
Trump, following remarks at Mar-a-Lago, took questions from the media, and one reporter asked if he would target Iran’s nuclear facilities,
"Well I can’t tell you that. I mean, it's a wonderful question, but how can I – am I going to do preemptive strikes? Why would I say that?" the president-elect responded.
"Can you imagine if I said yes or no? You would say, ‘That was strange that he answered that way.’ Am I going to do preemptive strikes on Iran? Is that a serious question? How could I answer a question like that?" Trump continued.
"How could I tell you a thing like that now?" Trump responded. "You don't talk about that before something may or may not happen. I don't want to insult you, I just think it's just not something that I would ever answer. Having to do with there or any other place in the world."
"We're trying to help very strongly and getting the hostages back, as you know, with Israel and the Middle East," Trump added Monday.
"We're working very much on that. We're trying to get the war stopped, that horrible, horrible war that's going on in Ukraine with Russia. We're going to, we've got a little progress. It's a tough one. It's a nasty one. It's nasty," he also said.
Hezbollah lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, the group’s chief admitted Sunday.
It was the first public acknowledgment of how upheaval in Syria had hurt the Iranian proxy, which had propped up Assad and is now fighting a war in Lebanon with Israel. Weapons to counter the Israeli campaign flowed from Iran through Syria and into Lebanon for Hezbollah.
"Yes, Hezbollah lost in this phase its military supply line through Syria, but this loss is merely a detail in the overall of the resistance," said Naim Qassem in a televised address.
"The supply line might come back normally with the new regime, and we can always look for other ways, the resistance is flexible and can adapt," he added.
Assad’s ousting jeopardized Syria’s close ties to Iran. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the overthrow of Assad, had lamented that Syria had become a "playground for Iran." Hezbollah had fought off the rebel groups on Assad’s behalf.
As it became clear Assad’s grip on power was coming undone, Hezbollah and Iran’s military forces made their exit from Syria.
Qassem took over as Hezbollah’s secretary general in October after its leader for three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli airstrikes south of Beirut. Hezbollah and Iran had long intervened on behalf of Assad in Syria’s 13-year civil war, but depleted by war with Israel, refused to come to his defense during the swift takeover of Damascus.
Israel has also used the chaos of Assad’s fall to destroy the Syrian army’s strategic and chemical weapons in more than 350 airstrikes across the country. And it has moved into the buffer zone that separates it from Syria – the first time the Golan buffer zone has seen Israeli forces since 1973.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is not interested in meddling in Syria’s domestic politics but is looking to protect Israel’s borders. "We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground," he said Sunday, adding Israel would continue to strike "as necessary, in every arena and at all times" to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah.
HTS, a former al Qaeda affiliate, has sought to portray itself as a moderating force in Syria, and the U.S. has been in direct contact with the leading rebel group. But Israel is leery of the group’s long-term intentions.
"The immediate risks to the country have not disappeared, and the latest developments in Syria are increasing the intensity of the threat – despite the moderate appearance rebel leaders are pretending to portray," Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday.
Hezbollah kicked up its cross-border attacks on Israel after Oct. 7, 2023, in support of Hamas, another Iranian proxy. Since late November, the cease-fire has mostly held, despite some Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives.
Qassem defended his decision to stick to the cease-fire, saying it did not mean the end of Hezbollah's "resistance," but was necessary to "stop the aggression" of Israel in Lebanon.
With the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad over the weekend and a new White House on the horizon, Iranian resistance leaders and U.S. lawmakers alike have begun expressing hope that Iran will topple its own leadership in a similar fashion, with U.S. help.
"There’s a real chance for regime change right now, that’s the only way you’re going to stop a nuclear weapon," Sam Brownback, former U.S. ambassador for International Religious Freedom, told Fox News Digital at a Senate panel on Iran on Wednesday.
"It’s not just now or never, it's now or nuclear," he said, as Iran enriches uranium to near-nuclear-capable levels.
A bipartisan group of senators spoke in support of toppling the Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khameini – both through a return to former President Trump’s "maximum pressure" campaign through sanctions and supporting the Iranian resistance movement – a piece that was missing during the first Trump administration.
"We have an obligation to stand together with allies in making sure this regime’s suppression will come to an end," said Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., at the event, which was hosted by the Organization for Iranian American Communities.
"Iran is projecting only weakness," said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. "Now is the time to think about how we invest more in the core values that we all share: democracy, human rights, justice for everyone."
"I have, for a long time, been willing to call quite unequivocally for regime change in Iran," said Sen. Ted Cruz, R–Texas.
It was a stronger message than has often recently been heard in Washington, D.C. circles, where there has been little appetite for getting further involved in the Middle East.
"The ayatollah will fall, the mullahs will fall, and we will see free and democratic elections in Iran. Change is coming and it’s coming very soon," the Texas Republican predicted.
"We will return to a maximum pressure policy," he added, "cut the cruel regime from resources from every direction possible – we are going to shut down nuclear research facilities, we are going to cut off their oil."
"There is a cottage industry in Washington to promote the goals and objectives of this regime," said Marc Ginsberg, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco. "You saw here there were Democratic senators to say to you, ‘We don’t buy this. We can make this a bipartisan effort.'"
The Biden administration has issued Iran sanctions waivers in hopes of future nuclear negotiations, and has expressed no interest in helping to topple the ayatollah. On Wednesday, Biden renewed a sanctions waiver granting Iran access to $10 billion in payments for energy from Iraq.
And asked if he would like to see Iran change its ruling system, Trump told Iranian American producer Patrick Bet David in October: "We can't get totally involved in all that. We can't run ourselves, let's face it."
"I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can't have a nuclear weapon," he also said.
But Brownback, a Trump appointee, insisted the U.S. must involve itself in regime change through supporting Iran’s opposition.
"I think we need to support politically the opposition inside of Iran," he said. "Provide them equipment, provide them information… the regime is not just going to walk away. You’ve got to force them out."
And Iran watchers believe the fall of Assad, who was heavily backed by Iran and its proxy force Hezbollah, is the perfect moment to do that.
"The tectonic shift in the Syrian government… should mean to the people of Iran that change is in fact possible in the Middle East," said Gen. James Jones, former White House national security adviser and supreme allied commander of Europe.
"The change in administration has already caused tectonic shifts in geographic alignments," he went on. "Appeasement does not work. Iranian regime does not do nuance."
Maryam Rajavi is president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the main resistance group in Iran.
"The people, who are deeply discontented and angry, along with the resistance units, who are part of the Army of Freedom and the main force of change in Iran, they are preparing an organized uprising," she told the panel.
Rajavi and her political group have a 10-point plan for regime change that calls for rebuilding an Iranian government based on separation of religion and state, gender equality, abolition of the death penalty and denuclearization.
"Our goal is not to seize power but to restore it to its rightful owners, the people of Iran and their vote."
Unlike the first Trump administration, Iran is now facing military attacks on other fronts through its proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It's unclear whether this weakened position would prompt them to bow to U.S. pressure or lash out even further. But one thing is clear: U.S. support for regime change would be a massive escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran with unknown consequences.
President-elect Donald Trump described Richard "Ric" Grenell, his former acting director of National Intelligence, as a "fabulous person" and "A STAR" in response to a news report about him potentially serving as a special envoy for Iran.
Reuters reported that Trump is considering appointing Grenell to the position, citing "two people familiar with the transition plans."
"He's definitely in the running," a person familiar with deliberations told the outlet under conditions of anonymity. Grenell, however, said the report is "made up."
Trump shared the Reuters report on Truth Social Wednesday night. While he did not confirm or deny the information in the article, he wrote, "Richard Grenell is a fabulous person, A STAR. He will be someplace, high up!"
Grenell shared a link to the Reuters article on his X account on Wednesday evening and denied the information presented.
"Wrong. Again," he wrote. "I hope there’s an actual editor somewhere at @Reuters who is doing journalism. This is made up."
Grenell was previously rumored to be a candidate for various spots in Trump's second term, including Secretary of State before Sen. Marco Rubio was appointed and special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict before retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg was selected.
Whoever is chosen for the Iran position would be responsible for "developing, coordinating, and implementing the State Department's Iran policy," per the job description.
The person would report directly to Rubio – assuming the Senate approves his nomination.
Grenell has been a loyal ally to Trump since his first presidential term and often appeared on the 2024 campaign trail to show his support for the now president-elect.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Reuters for comment.
The Biden administration has renewed a controversial sanctions waiver that will allow Iran access to some $10 billion in payments from Iraq – an action that came just two days after President-elect Trump emerged victorious on Election Day.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken again extended the waiver for humanitarian trade, which permits Iran to access accounts in Iraq and Oman. However, Republican critics have said that allowing the Iranian regime access to these funds frees up money Iran can use to support terrorism in the Middle East or advance its nuclear program.
"On November 7th, the department did renew Iraq's electricity waiver for the 23rd time since 2018. It was done so for an additional 120 days," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed last week.
"We remain committed to reducing Iran's malign influence in the region. Our viewpoint is that a stable, sovereign and secure Iraq is critical to these efforts," he added, pointing out that this sanctions waiver began in 2018 during the first Trump administration.
Congress has passed several sanctions targeting Iran that give the president authority to temporarily suspend, or "waive" the sanctions if the president determines doing so is in the interests of U.S. national security.
The waiver is set to expire after Trump takes office in January. It is unclear whether the Trump administration would again extend the sanctions relief. The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, argued Tuesday that the sanctions waiver allows Iran to fund proxy terror groups that have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East.
"The House voted to eliminate these waiver authorities — twice. But the Biden administration is still waiving the sanctions, putting more money in the Iranian regime’s pockets to fund its terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons program," McCaul posted on X.
"The U.S. should not be subsidizing Iran’s malign activities."
FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is looking for answers from the FBI after a selection by President-elect Donald Trump to lead the bureau was reportedly targeted by Iranian hackers.
"For an Iranian-backed group to have targeted the potential next Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is extremely alarming. Also alarming is the speed at which sensitive and potentially classified information about this attack spread to the news media," the North Carolina senator penned in a Monday letter to FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate.
It was reported by several outlets last week that Kash Patel, who Trump has chosen to be his nominee for FBI director in his new administration, was the target of an Iranian hacking attempt.
In response to reports of the hack attempt, Trump Transition spokesperson Alex Pfeiffer told Fox News Digital, "Kash Patel was a key part of the first Trump administration's efforts against the terrorist Iranian regime and will implement President Trump’s policies to protect America from adversaries as the FBI Director."
In his letter, Tillis pointed to various law enforcement sources that apparently communicated with news publications.
"As you know, it is imperative that the FBI and other intelligence agencies maintain confidentiality to ensure the American people are safe from enemies at home and abroad. The release of this information raises major national security and personal safety concerns," he wrote.
The Republican asked Abbate a series of questions, including whether FBI employees shared information about the cyberattack with either media or with third parties that could've given it to media.
The FBI told Fox News Digital that it received the letter but had no further comment.
Patel has been making the rounds on Capitol Hill and meeting with senators as he looks to shore up support before Trump is inaugurated in January.
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the culmination of years of civil war, has given way to a power vacuum with different factions protecting their own interests – and vying for power in the Middle Eastern nation.
The U.S., worried about the resurgence of an ISIS stronghold, has struck targets associated with the Islamic State in central Syria.
Turkey, which controls a zone of Syria on its northern border, has continued to attack U.S.-backed Kurdish forces.
Both work with different proxy groups.
Here’s a look at the different forces vying for control in the region:
HTS was the key faction behind the fall of Damascus and the fleeing of Assad, and now controls the capital city. But the Islamist militant group is far from a U.S. ally – its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head and has been designated a terrorist since 2013. The group governed just a sliver of northwest Syria in Idlib.
The group, founded as an al Qaeda affiliate, still remains largely aligned with al Qaeda but focuses on establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than a global caliphate.
The U.N., U.S. and Turkey all designate HTS as a terrorist organization. The group, in recent years, has worked to soften its image and lobbied to be delisted as a terrorist group, highlighting its government services in Idlib and promising to protect religious and cultural sites, even churches, in Aleppo.
Experts believe Turkey, which has long looked to topple Assad, may have been at play in HTS’ offensive.
Syria’s forces loyal to Assad have staved off coup attempts since 2011, often through violent crackdowns on protests and rebellion.
By 2020, government troops backed by Iran, Russia and Lebanese Hezbollah had pushed rebel forces back to the northwest corner of Syria.
In the waning days of November, rebel factions swiftly overpowered government troops, seizing control of Aleppo – a city previously reclaimed by Assad's forces in 2016. Eight days later, the insurgents successfully captured not only Aleppo, but also Hama, Homs and Damascus.
On Monday, HTS granted Assad’s forces "a general amnesty for all military personnel conscripted under compulsory service."
"Their lives are safe and no one may assault them," the group said in a statement.
The SNA is a loosely bound coalition of Turkish-backed forces primarily intent on fighting Kurdish forces. But the coalition, which carries out Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s anti-Assad efforts, was also involved in the fall of Damascus. The groups have – in the past – also battled HTS and other Islamic State terrorists.
The SNA coalition believes U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria to be linked to Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group that has launched Kurdish nationalist attacks in Turkey.
SDF is a coalition of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, centered in northeastern Syria. They have long worked alongside the U.S. in battling Islamic State forces in Syria.
In addition to fighting the Islamic State, they’ve been fending off attacks from Turkish-backed fighters.
Kurdish forces were not involved in the offensive that toppled Assad, but they hailed the offensive campaign.
"In Syria, we are living through historic moments as we witness the fall of the authoritarian regime in Damascus. This change presents an opportunity to build a new Syria based on democracy and justice that guarantees the rights of all Syrians," said Mazlum Abdi, the commander of the SDF, on Sunday morning.
After relatively friendly relations with Syria throughout the early 2000s, Turkey condemned Assad over the violent 2011 crackdown on protesters.
While Turkey and the U.S. are allies – bound to protect each other through NATO – they are on opposing sides in Syria, even as both celebrated Assad's downfall. The Turkish military fired on U.S.-backed forces in Syria over the weekend, where fighting erupted between rebel groups in Manbij, a Kurdish-controlled city near Syria's border with Turkey. Turkey has long had a goal of pushing the Kurds away from its border, and is looking to use the current turmoil to capture control along the border and decimate the Kurdish population there.
Kurdish separatists have fought Turkey for years, looking to carve out their own autonomous nation.
Since 2015, Russia has effectively acted as Assad’s air force, but its capacity to intervene on the dictator’s behalf has diminished since resources were needed for the war with Ukraine.
Iran was Assad’s biggest supporter, providing arms and military advice and directing its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah to fight the insurgents. But Hezbollah had to direct its troops back to Lebanon to fight Israel, leaving Assad’s forces in a weakened position.
HTS leader al-Golani lamented in a speech on Sunday that Syria had become "a playground for Iranian ambitions."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu credited his forces’ weakening of Hezbollah for playing a key role in the fall of Assad. Israel has consistently launched strikes against Syria with the strategic aim of disrupting the channels Iran uses to supply arms to Hezbollah.
After Assad’s fall, Israel, on Sunday, struck Assad’s chemical weapons facilities within Syria, for fear of what hands they may fall into in his absence.
Israel also captured control of a buffer zone within the Golan Heights, the first time they’ve captured territory in Syria since the war in 1973.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved in on Sunday and told residents to remain in their homes until further notice. They said they needed to capture the territory to ensure border security.
They also captured Mount Hermon – the highest point on the border between the two countries and a blind spot in their defenses that Iran had been exploiting to send low-flying drones.
Some 900 U.S. troops remain in Syria, where they are partnered with the SDF to fight ISIS.
On Sunday, President Biden said U.S. troops would remain there to "ensure stability."
The U.S. carried out dozens of precision strikes on more than 75 ISIS targets in central Syria over the weekend to prevent the terrorist group from exploiting the unrest to rebuild.
"We're clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to re-establish its capability to create a safe haven," Biden said. "We will not let that happen."
Biden said the U.S. would support Syria's neighbors – Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel – "should any threat arise from Syria during this transition."
The president added that the fall of Assad created a "historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria on Sunday and argued that it was a "direct result" of Israeli attacks on Iran and Hezbollah.
Netanyahu made the remarks in a public address shortly after news broke that Assad had fled Damascus on Saturday night with his family. Islamist rebels took over the city on Sunday. Netanyahu cautioned that the fall of the Assad regime is nevertheless "fraught with significant dangers."
"This is a historic day for the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers. This collapse is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad's main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression," Netanyahu said.
The Israeli leader also noted that the fall of the Syrian regime also prompted action by the Israel Defense Forces, who were forced to take positions abandoned by the Syrian Army near the border with Israel.
"But it also means that we have to take action against possible threats. One of them is the collapse of the Separation of Forces Agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria. This agreement held for 50 years. Last night, it collapsed," he continued. "The Syrian army abandoned its positions. We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel. This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found."
Netanyahu closed by offering a "hand of peace" to people in Syria, including to "Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel."
"Equally, we send a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria: to the Druze, to the Kurds, to the Christians, and to the Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel. We're going to follow events very carefully. If we can establish neighborly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," Netanyahu finished.
Being a federal official in any country would naturally open oneself up to the possibility of foreign threats. Threats against heads of state generally get the most attention, but even being a member of Congress has its risks – for some more than others.
"The FBI came in and gave me a defensive briefing, and told me that there were just a couple members that were going to be targets in a disinformation campaign," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told Fox News Digital. "And, you know, to sort of be aware of it."
That threat was specifically coming from China, which had been watching McCaul since he was a federal prosecutor in 1997, according to the Texas Republican. China sanctioned him in 2023 after his first visit to Taiwan during the 118th Congress.
The New York Times reported last month that several lawmakers, including McCaul, Rep. Barry Moore, R-Ala., and Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., were targeted by a disinformation campaign over their anti-China policies.
"I think every one of us, certainly on the China committee, is aware of the fact that China knows exactly who we are. And they don't like the committee," Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., a member of the House select committee on countering the Chinese Communist Party, told Fox News Digital. "It’s something that's an example of something that we have to be careful of."
Asked what it was like living with the day-to-day knowledge that a hostile foreign power was trying to surveil him and his colleagues, Moulton said, "I’m a Marine. Feels fine."
Other senior lawmakers who spoke with Fox News Digital, like Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., acknowledged they have faced foreign threats but declined to go into detail.
But it’s not just China that’s targeting U.S. lawmakers – McCaul also recounted overt surveillance efforts from Russia during past congressional delegations. And he also mentioned another FBI defensive briefing he received, this time about threats from Iran.
"The FBI brought me in, in a classified space, and they said, ‘We just want to let you know that you're now under indictment in Iran… we want to let you know for your own self-awareness,’" McCaul said.
The reason, McCaul said he was told, was because he had been one of the people who advised then-President Trump to move forward with his successful operation to kill top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
"It’s interesting because, you know, the discussion at that time was, ‘My God, we killed Soleimani. Just think of the blowback and the backlash.’ And it was kind of radio silence from Iran. They were just stunned," he said.
McCaul said living under threat from multiple foreign governments was "a little unsettling," adding, "You’ve gotta have a little more self-awareness" in his situation.
He also did not expect those threats to let up despite his tenure as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee ending, nor did he expect his diplomatic work to stop.
"I think if anything, you know, as I step down… I see a greater role in being a bit of an emissary, you know, just kind of going back and forth with the administration," McCaul said.
President-elect Trump will take office just as Iran has the potential to become the world’s 10th nuclear-armed state, and it’s unclear if either side knows how it will approach the other.
Judging by Trump’s last time in office, it would suggest he would come out the gate with a combative tone — having instituted a "maximum pressure" campaign to "bankrupt" the regime. His secretary of state pick, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has been an unyielding Iran hawk in the Senate.
After the regime fired 200 missiles toward Tel Aviv last month, Rubio said: "Only threatening the survival of the regime through maximum pressure and direct and disproportionate measures has a chance to influence and alter their criminal activities."
That could reinstate — and eliminate — any waivers for oil sanctions. It could mean threatening not to conduct business with countries that buy Iranian fuel products.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick for national security adviser, is of a similar mind.
Last month, when the Biden administration urged Israel to keep its counterstrikes "proportional," Waltz slammed President Biden for pressuring Israel "once again to do less than it should."
He suggested Israel strike oil facilities on Kharg Island and Iran’s nuclear plants in Natanz, a move the Biden team feared Iran would deem escalatory.
Last month, Trump appeared to rule out the U.S. getting involved in any effort to take out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and his government. "We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it," he said.
"I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can't have a nuclear weapon."
Trump has said he does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but has not laid out how he would stop it from doing so.
"I'm not looking to be bad to Iran, we're going to be friendly, I hope, with Iran, maybe, but maybe not. But we're going to be friendly, I hope, we're going to be friendly, but they can't have a nuclear weapon," he said at a New Jersey press conference in August.
Last month, Trump suggested Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Following the Iranian missile attacks, he suggested Israel should "hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later."
On Thursday, Iran said it was activating "advanced" centrifuges after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors censured it for failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Without cooperation, the world is in the dark about how quickly Iran is advancing its technological capabilities to use its uranium fuel for a bomb.
"We will significantly increase enrichment capacity," Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran's atomic energy organization spokesman, said after the censure.
What’s standing between Iran and a fully formed nuclear weapon is both a political and a technological question.
While the nation has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the process of turning that into a warhead could take anywhere from six to 12 months, according to Nicole Grajewski, nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"That’s when Iran would be most vulnerable to attack," she said. "Iran could probably make a dirty bomb from its current stockpile."
Over the years, Iran’s nuclear progress has been set back by international sanctions, COVID-19, high-profile assassinations of its nuclear scientists and attacks and sabotage on its nuclear facilities led by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.
And announcing they have a nuclear weapon could threaten Iran’s longtime goal of regional hegemony.
"Iran is less isolated than it was four years ago, but it’s still pretty isolated. Announcing they are nuclear would trigger an arms race in the Middle East," predicted Simone Leeden, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East.
"Saudi Arabia and the UAE would decide they will pursue nuclear weapons the minute Iran declares it has its own. Another action they could and would take is deepening ties with Israel."
Iran also understands that producing a nuclear bomb would likely evoke a military response from Israel and the U.S. under Trump.
After years of trying to assassinate Trump, the Iranians don’t seem to have figured out whether to approach the U.S. relationship under Trump with a combative or diplomatic tone. Just last month, they told President Biden they would not make any efforts to kill the president-elect going forward.
"I think that there's been a lot of mixed signaling from the kind of Trump transition team is, you know, you see Brian Hook being appointed, who was behind this maximum pressure and sanctions," said Grajewski. But then, on the other hand, Trump envoy Elon Musk reportedly met with Iranian officials to discuss how the two nations could dial back tensions.
"I think that he is being opaque on purpose," said Leeden. "I don't think he wants to show his cards as a negotiator."
"In all likelihood, maximum pressure is going to be restored," said Behnam Taleblu, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "U.S. partners are asking now, to what end? Is it towards regime collapse? Is it towards a deal? What if the Iranians don't negotiate in good faith?"
Former Israeli officials have suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be emboldened to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with the go-ahead from the Trump administration. But a lot of Iran’s centrifuge and enrichment facilities are deep underground, complicating a bombing campaign against them.
To get to them, Israel would need the U.S.' Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), or "bunkbuster bombs."
"It would require U.S. involvement — either the direct transfer of this, which is currently not really discussed — that would be pretty escalatory — or Israel getting the United States to also conduct this mission," said Grajewski.
The Trump team will also place a high priority on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, solidifying the Sunni Muslim alliance against Iran. But the Saudis have insisted the U.S. and Israel must recognize a Palestinian state for such a deal to get done.
"The incoming administration wants to quiet down this kinetic energy in the Middle East quickly, because we have bigger fish to fry as a country," said Leeden.
The U.S. has long looked to pivot its military focus away from the Middle East and toward the Indo-Pacific. The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas after Oct. 7 tore that focus back to the Arab world.
Iran has increased its nearly weapons-grade uranium, a United Nations watchdog found, defying international demands to rein in its nuclear program.
Iran now has enough uranium at 60% purity, just below the 90% purity needed for a weapon, to produce about four nuclear bombs, an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report said.
The report found Iran had about 400 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% as of Oct. 26, up 40 pounds from August.
Around 92 pounds of uranium, enriched at 90%, is needed to make an atomic weapon.
Iran’s overall stockpile of uranium enriched at any level reached about 14,560 pounds, up 1,880 pounds from August.
It comes as Iran has offered to cease enriching uranium beyond 60% – but only if the European Union and the United Kingdom cease their efforts to slap new sanctions on Iran and the IAEA drops a censure resolution it is pursuing.
During a meeting between IAEA general director Rafael Grossi and high-level Iranian diplomats, "the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 was discussed, including technical verification measures necessary for the Agency to confirm this, if implemented," Grossi said.
He added that Iran said it would consider accepting agency inspectors to conduct oversight of its nuclear materials.
Experts say there is no credible use of 60% uranium at the civilian level.
Concerns have swelled among Western nations that Iran could decide pursuing a nuclear bomb is its best deterrent, after Israel hollowed out Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s biggest proxies. U.S. intelligence suggests they've improved their manufacturing capabilities for doing so over the past year.
It's not yet clear whether President-elect Trump will come in with a combative or diplomatic tone toward Iran, but he's promised to crack down on sanctions on the regime that he claims President Biden failed to enforce.
The European Union on Monday widened sanctions against Iran for its alleged support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, including targeting the national seafaring company and ships used to transfer drones and missiles. Acting in tandem, the U.K. froze the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was aiding Russia and warned the sanctions would prompt Iran to retaliate.
"There is no legal, logical or moral basis for such behavior. If anything, it will only compel what it ostensibly seeks to prevent," Araghchi wrote on X.
"Freedom of navigation is a basic principle of the law of the sea. When selectively applied by some, such shortsightedness usually tends to boomerang," Araghchi wrote.
The IAEA board is expected to move forward with a European-backed censure resolution, which could lead to the issue being escalated to the U.N. Security Council for possible measures against Tehran.
That resolution would condemn Tehran's lack of responsiveness and call for creating a comprehensive report of all open questions about Iran's nuclear work.
Iran has not formally decided whether to build a nuclear bomb, according to the latest available U.S. intelligence. But as of September 2024, Iran could produce weapons-grade uranium in about seven days and have enough for six to nine nuclear bombs within a month if it wanted to, according to David Albright at the Institute for Science and International Security.
