Barbara Leaf, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, made the announcement in an online briefing on Friday while discussing a diplomatic trip to Damascus where US representatives met with Jolani.
Leaf said the US delegation "welcomed positive messages" from the leader — who now goes by his birthname Ahmed al-Sharaa — and that he assured them that terrorist groups would not be allowed to pose a threat in Syria.
"And so based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years," she said.
Pressed for more information on why the US had decided to lift the bounty, Leaf said it was a "policy decision" that "aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," adding that it would be "a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy's head" while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.
HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations, traces its origins to Al Qaeda.
Jolani cut his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 to form a new group, which became HTS the following year.
He has worked for years to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West and has called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."
While stressing that the US would "judge by deeds" rather than words, Leaf said Jolani appeared "pragmatic" and noted that he had previously issued "moderate statements" on issues such as women's rights and the protection of equal rights for all communities.
The US delegation, which included Roger Carstens, the special envoy for hostage affairs, also used the Damascus trip to explore leads on the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.
Carstens said that they had had "a lot of information coming in" but that it remained unclear whether Tice was alive. "The bottom line is the information that we have right now doesn't confirm either in one way or the other."
A top aide on Vice President Harris' failed presidential campaign recently called for more cultural voices like the vocal anti-America and anti-Israel Twitch star, Hasan Piker, who previously faced backlash for saying that "America deserved 9/11."
Harris' former deputy campaign manager, Rob Flaherty, said during a recent interview that Democrats are "losing hold of culture" and laid out a strategy for them to develop a "whole thriving system" ahead of future elections.
"We need a whole thriving ecosystem," Flaherty told Semafor. "It’s not just Pod Save America, though I think we should have more of them. It’s not just Hasan Piker. We should have more Hasan Pikers. It’s also the cultural creators, the folks who are one rung out who influence the nonpartisan audience. Those things all need to happen together."
"The reality is it’s not going to be big media organizations. It’s going to be a network and a constellation of individual personalities, because that’s how people get their information now," he added.
Flaherty, who previously served as the director of digital strategy for the Biden White House, is likely to face backlash for calling for "more Hasan Pikers" due to Piker's past controversial comments. Piker, who previously raised more than $1 million for Palestinian aid, has used his platform with millions of followers to downplay and justify terrorist attacks such as Oct. 7 and 9/11 as acts of resistance in recent years.
During a 2019 livestream, Piker praised the "brave f---ing soldier" who wounded conservative U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, while he was deployed to Afghanistan as a Navy SEAL, asking, "Didn't he go to war and, like, literally lose his eye because some mujahideen, a brave f---ing soldier, f---ed his eyehole with their d---?"
He went on to say that "America deserved 9/11, I’m saying it," before later walking it back and saying it was "inappropriate." However, in another stream this year, Piker joked about 9/11 again, saying, "Oh my god, 9/11 2 is going to be so sick" and "give Saudi Arabia a nuke so they can do 9/11 2."
In another stream, Piker broadcast propaganda from the Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen that has been designated by the U.S. as a terrorist group. Instead of explicitly addressing the materials as questionable propaganda, the streamer instead expressed sympathy and admiration for the group.
"They do musicals about, like, their f---ing actions all the time," Piker said of the terrorist propaganda. "They love walking over like the American flag and the Israeli flag, side by side."
"They do not care about the heavy missiles … they will literally take the war to them no matter what. … For them, it's an act of resistance. You know what I mean?" he added.
"It doesn't matter if f---ing rapes happened on Oct. 7," Piker said in a May 22 stream. "It doesn't change the dynamic [of Palestinians and Israelis] for me."
During an April 18 stream, Piker also expressed that Hamas was the "lesser evil" next to the Israeli military.
While Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and others have been on Piker's platform, Dem Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York wrote a letter this year to top executives at Twitch and Amazon expressing "alarm about the amplification of antisemitism on Twitch at the hands of Hasan Piker" and said Piker has "emerged as the poster child for the post-October 7th outbreak of antisemitism in America."
"Outside the context of October 7th, Mr. Piker has even joked and mused about men date-raping women on a college campus and has posted an image of a handgun on top of a United States Senator in what appears to be open invitation to gun violence against a sitting elected official," Torres said. "Inviting one’s followers to shoot an elected official, whether it be done in earnest or in jest, is the kind of threat that warrants serious attention from federal law enforcement."
Piker’s Twitch streams regularly hit more than a million views and often have as many as 30,000 viewers at a given time.
Fox News Digital reached out to Flaherty for comment but did not receive a response.
President-elect Trump tangled with a reporter who asked him Monday if he would entertain the idea of preemptive strikes on Iran.
Trump, following remarks at Mar-a-Lago, took questions from the media, and one reporter asked if he would target Iran’s nuclear facilities,
"Well I can’t tell you that. I mean, it's a wonderful question, but how can I – am I going to do preemptive strikes? Why would I say that?" the president-elect responded.
"Can you imagine if I said yes or no? You would say, ‘That was strange that he answered that way.’ Am I going to do preemptive strikes on Iran? Is that a serious question? How could I answer a question like that?" Trump continued.
"How could I tell you a thing like that now?" Trump responded. "You don't talk about that before something may or may not happen. I don't want to insult you, I just think it's just not something that I would ever answer. Having to do with there or any other place in the world."
"We're trying to help very strongly and getting the hostages back, as you know, with Israel and the Middle East," Trump added Monday.
"We're working very much on that. We're trying to get the war stopped, that horrible, horrible war that's going on in Ukraine with Russia. We're going to, we've got a little progress. It's a tough one. It's a nasty one. It's nasty," he also said.
Hezbollah lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, the group’s chief admitted Sunday.
It was the first public acknowledgment of how upheaval in Syria had hurt the Iranian proxy, which had propped up Assad and is now fighting a war in Lebanon with Israel. Weapons to counter the Israeli campaign flowed from Iran through Syria and into Lebanon for Hezbollah.
"Yes, Hezbollah lost in this phase its military supply line through Syria, but this loss is merely a detail in the overall of the resistance," said Naim Qassem in a televised address.
"The supply line might come back normally with the new regime, and we can always look for other ways, the resistance is flexible and can adapt," he added.
Assad’s ousting jeopardized Syria’s close ties to Iran. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the overthrow of Assad, had lamented that Syria had become a "playground for Iran." Hezbollah had fought off the rebel groups on Assad’s behalf.
As it became clear Assad’s grip on power was coming undone, Hezbollah and Iran’s military forces made their exit from Syria.
Qassem took over as Hezbollah’s secretary general in October after its leader for three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli airstrikes south of Beirut. Hezbollah and Iran had long intervened on behalf of Assad in Syria’s 13-year civil war, but depleted by war with Israel, refused to come to his defense during the swift takeover of Damascus.
Israel has also used the chaos of Assad’s fall to destroy the Syrian army’s strategic and chemical weapons in more than 350 airstrikes across the country. And it has moved into the buffer zone that separates it from Syria – the first time the Golan buffer zone has seen Israeli forces since 1973.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is not interested in meddling in Syria’s domestic politics but is looking to protect Israel’s borders. "We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground," he said Sunday, adding Israel would continue to strike "as necessary, in every arena and at all times" to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah.
HTS, a former al Qaeda affiliate, has sought to portray itself as a moderating force in Syria, and the U.S. has been in direct contact with the leading rebel group. But Israel is leery of the group’s long-term intentions.
"The immediate risks to the country have not disappeared, and the latest developments in Syria are increasing the intensity of the threat – despite the moderate appearance rebel leaders are pretending to portray," Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday.
Hezbollah kicked up its cross-border attacks on Israel after Oct. 7, 2023, in support of Hamas, another Iranian proxy. Since late November, the cease-fire has mostly held, despite some Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives.
Qassem defended his decision to stick to the cease-fire, saying it did not mean the end of Hezbollah's "resistance," but was necessary to "stop the aggression" of Israel in Lebanon.
Qatar hosted the tournament last year, which was won by Argentina, and the country was dogged by years-long allegations of rights abuses of migrant workers needed to build its stadiums.
However, FIFA and Saudi officials have said hosting the 2034 tournament can accelerate change, including more freedoms and rights for women, with FIFA President Gianni Infantino on Wednesday calling the World Cup a "unique catalyst for positive social change and unity."
The win will kick off a decade of scrutiny on Saudi labor laws and treatment of workers needed to help build and upgrade 15 stadiums, hotels and transportation networks ahead of the 104-game tournament.
During the bid campaign, FIFA has accepted limited scrutiny of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record that was widely criticized this year at the United Nations.
Saudi and international rights groups and activists warned FIFA it has not learned the lessons of Qatar’s much-criticized preparations to host the 2022 World Cup.
"At every stage of this bidding process, FIFA has shown its commitment to human rights to be a sham," said Steve Cockburn, Amnesty International’s head of labor rights and sport, who added that it is "reckless" to have Saudi Arabia host. Cockburn also said "many lives" will be "at risk."
The Saudis have dipped into the sports world with the Public Investment Fund financially backing LIV Golf. Cristiano Ronaldo, who said in an X post he expects the 2034 Cup to be "the best … ever," also joined a league in Saudi Arabia in 2022, making $75 million annually.
The Biden administration has renewed a controversial sanctions waiver that will allow Iran access to some $10 billion in payments from Iraq – an action that came just two days after President-elect Trump emerged victorious on Election Day.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken again extended the waiver for humanitarian trade, which permits Iran to access accounts in Iraq and Oman. However, Republican critics have said that allowing the Iranian regime access to these funds frees up money Iran can use to support terrorism in the Middle East or advance its nuclear program.
"On November 7th, the department did renew Iraq's electricity waiver for the 23rd time since 2018. It was done so for an additional 120 days," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed last week.
"We remain committed to reducing Iran's malign influence in the region. Our viewpoint is that a stable, sovereign and secure Iraq is critical to these efforts," he added, pointing out that this sanctions waiver began in 2018 during the first Trump administration.
Congress has passed several sanctions targeting Iran that give the president authority to temporarily suspend, or "waive" the sanctions if the president determines doing so is in the interests of U.S. national security.
The waiver is set to expire after Trump takes office in January. It is unclear whether the Trump administration would again extend the sanctions relief. The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, argued Tuesday that the sanctions waiver allows Iran to fund proxy terror groups that have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East.
"The House voted to eliminate these waiver authorities — twice. But the Biden administration is still waiving the sanctions, putting more money in the Iranian regime’s pockets to fund its terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons program," McCaul posted on X.
"The U.S. should not be subsidizing Iran’s malign activities."
Before the war, Hamada Shaqoura was a food blogger. Now, he spends his days cooking to feed children and displaced people in Gaza. And he figured out a way to reach millions on social media without saying a word. His intense stare at the camera as he cooks various dishes has been easy for many to understand. Hamada finally opens up and shares his story with Business Insider. He told us why he sees food as a symbol of resistance and why it's important for him to cook food people had before the war, like chicken wings, tacos, croissants and popsicles.
A top Israeli diplomat insisted his nation is "not getting involved" in Syria’s domestic politics after the nation launched an aggressive campaign of airstrikes and seized control of a buffer zone in Syria.
"We are not getting involved in what's happening domestically inside Syria. But we have concerns about our border," Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News Digital.
"It’s been a quiet border, relatively, but we hope it will continue to be the same."
Israel has launched an assault on military and chemical weapons sites within Syria, fearing they could fall into the wrong hands after the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad and his government over the weekend.
The ouster left a power vacuum that leaves Israel and the U.S. to wonder which forces may seize dominance in the nation and how friendly they might be.
In that vacuum, Israel moved troops into the Golan buffer zone for the first time since it was established after the 1973 Mideast war.
Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have condemned the Israeli incursion, accusing it of exploiting the situation.
Danon seemed hopeful the next Syrian government would not be under the thumb of Iran but warned "bad actors" had been involved in the overthrow of Assad.
"Iran was heavily invested in Syria. And I'm sure that today it will change, and the Iranians will not be welcome anymore in Syria. So, on that front, I think it's an achievement. But, at the same day, we have to look what's happening on other fronts," said Danon.
"We have to remember that it's not like a peaceful revolution. You know, they walked with al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. So, we have to pay attention to that."
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was the key faction behind the fall of Damascus and the fleeing of Assad and now controls the capital city. But the Islamist militant group was founded as an offshoot of al Qaeda, and its leader has a $10 million bounty on his head.
The group in recent years has worked to soften its image and lobbied to be delisted as a terrorist organization by the U.S.
Israel has also taken control of Mount Hermon, the highest point on the border between the two countries and a blind spot in its defenses that Iran had been exploiting to send low-flying drones.
"That was a defensive, temporary act," said Danon. "We want to see what’s happening there."
The ambassador said Israel hopes Syria will have a "better future," but its only goal is to "not allow terrorists to be on the fence."
"For more than 50 years, the Assad family tortured the Syrian people, massacred hundreds of thousands of civilians. So, we are the one humanitarian point of view. We do hope that they will have a better life."
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the culmination of years of civil war, has given way to a power vacuum with different factions protecting their own interests – and vying for power in the Middle Eastern nation.
The U.S., worried about the resurgence of an ISIS stronghold, has struck targets associated with the Islamic State in central Syria.
Turkey, which controls a zone of Syria on its northern border, has continued to attack U.S.-backed Kurdish forces.
Both work with different proxy groups.
Here’s a look at the different forces vying for control in the region:
HTS was the key faction behind the fall of Damascus and the fleeing of Assad, and now controls the capital city. But the Islamist militant group is far from a U.S. ally – its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head and has been designated a terrorist since 2013. The group governed just a sliver of northwest Syria in Idlib.
The group, founded as an al Qaeda affiliate, still remains largely aligned with al Qaeda but focuses on establishing fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than a global caliphate.
The U.N., U.S. and Turkey all designate HTS as a terrorist organization. The group, in recent years, has worked to soften its image and lobbied to be delisted as a terrorist group, highlighting its government services in Idlib and promising to protect religious and cultural sites, even churches, in Aleppo.
Experts believe Turkey, which has long looked to topple Assad, may have been at play in HTS’ offensive.
Syria’s forces loyal to Assad have staved off coup attempts since 2011, often through violent crackdowns on protests and rebellion.
By 2020, government troops backed by Iran, Russia and Lebanese Hezbollah had pushed rebel forces back to the northwest corner of Syria.
In the waning days of November, rebel factions swiftly overpowered government troops, seizing control of Aleppo – a city previously reclaimed by Assad's forces in 2016. Eight days later, the insurgents successfully captured not only Aleppo, but also Hama, Homs and Damascus.
On Monday, HTS granted Assad’s forces "a general amnesty for all military personnel conscripted under compulsory service."
"Their lives are safe and no one may assault them," the group said in a statement.
The SNA is a loosely bound coalition of Turkish-backed forces primarily intent on fighting Kurdish forces. But the coalition, which carries out Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s anti-Assad efforts, was also involved in the fall of Damascus. The groups have – in the past – also battled HTS and other Islamic State terrorists.
The SNA coalition believes U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria to be linked to Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group that has launched Kurdish nationalist attacks in Turkey.
SDF is a coalition of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, centered in northeastern Syria. They have long worked alongside the U.S. in battling Islamic State forces in Syria.
In addition to fighting the Islamic State, they’ve been fending off attacks from Turkish-backed fighters.
Kurdish forces were not involved in the offensive that toppled Assad, but they hailed the offensive campaign.
"In Syria, we are living through historic moments as we witness the fall of the authoritarian regime in Damascus. This change presents an opportunity to build a new Syria based on democracy and justice that guarantees the rights of all Syrians," said Mazlum Abdi, the commander of the SDF, on Sunday morning.
After relatively friendly relations with Syria throughout the early 2000s, Turkey condemned Assad over the violent 2011 crackdown on protesters.
While Turkey and the U.S. are allies – bound to protect each other through NATO – they are on opposing sides in Syria, even as both celebrated Assad's downfall. The Turkish military fired on U.S.-backed forces in Syria over the weekend, where fighting erupted between rebel groups in Manbij, a Kurdish-controlled city near Syria's border with Turkey. Turkey has long had a goal of pushing the Kurds away from its border, and is looking to use the current turmoil to capture control along the border and decimate the Kurdish population there.
Kurdish separatists have fought Turkey for years, looking to carve out their own autonomous nation.
Since 2015, Russia has effectively acted as Assad’s air force, but its capacity to intervene on the dictator’s behalf has diminished since resources were needed for the war with Ukraine.
Iran was Assad’s biggest supporter, providing arms and military advice and directing its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah to fight the insurgents. But Hezbollah had to direct its troops back to Lebanon to fight Israel, leaving Assad’s forces in a weakened position.
HTS leader al-Golani lamented in a speech on Sunday that Syria had become "a playground for Iranian ambitions."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu credited his forces’ weakening of Hezbollah for playing a key role in the fall of Assad. Israel has consistently launched strikes against Syria with the strategic aim of disrupting the channels Iran uses to supply arms to Hezbollah.
After Assad’s fall, Israel, on Sunday, struck Assad’s chemical weapons facilities within Syria, for fear of what hands they may fall into in his absence.
Israel also captured control of a buffer zone within the Golan Heights, the first time they’ve captured territory in Syria since the war in 1973.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved in on Sunday and told residents to remain in their homes until further notice. They said they needed to capture the territory to ensure border security.
They also captured Mount Hermon – the highest point on the border between the two countries and a blind spot in their defenses that Iran had been exploiting to send low-flying drones.
Some 900 U.S. troops remain in Syria, where they are partnered with the SDF to fight ISIS.
On Sunday, President Biden said U.S. troops would remain there to "ensure stability."
The U.S. carried out dozens of precision strikes on more than 75 ISIS targets in central Syria over the weekend to prevent the terrorist group from exploiting the unrest to rebuild.
"We're clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to re-establish its capability to create a safe haven," Biden said. "We will not let that happen."
Biden said the U.S. would support Syria's neighbors – Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel – "should any threat arise from Syria during this transition."
The president added that the fall of Assad created a "historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria."
The Pentagon unveiled a new counter-drone strategy after a spate of incursions near U.S. bases prompted concerns over a lack of an action plan for the increasing threat of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Though much of the strategy remains classified, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will implement a new counter-drone office within the Pentagon – Joint Counter-Small UAS Office – and a new Warfighter Senior Integration Group, according to a new memo.
The Pentagon will also begin work on a second Replicator initiative, but it will be up to the incoming Trump administration to decide whether to fund this plan. The first Replicator initiative worked to field inexpensive, dispensable drones to thwart drone attacks by adversarial groups across the Middle East and elsewhere.
The memo warned that the increased use of unmanned systems must reshape U.S. tactics, as they make it easier for adversaries to "surveil, disrupt and attack our forces … potentially without attribution."
The plan outlines a five-pronged approach: deepening understanding of enemy drones, launching offensive campaigns to thwart their ability to build such systems, improving "active and passive" defenses to such attacks, rapid increase of production of counter-drone systems and making counter-drone focus a top priority for future force development.
For the past year, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been using small, one-way unmanned aerial systems to strike western shipping routes in the Red Sea.
That has led to perilous waters along a trade route that typically sees some $1 trillion in goods pass through it, as well as shipments of aid to war-torn Sudan and the Yemeni people.
Additionally, the cost of U.S. response to such attacks is disproportionate. While the Houthi drones are estimated to cost around $2,000 each, the naval missiles the U.S. fires back can run around $2 million a shot.
In September, Houthis took out two U.S. Reaper drones in a week, machinery that costs around $30 million a piece.
Deadly drone strikes have also been launched by both sides in Russia's war on Ukraine.
"Unmanned systems pose both an urgent and enduring threat to U.S. personnel, facilities, and assets overseas," the Pentagon said in a statement on Thursday announcing the strategy.
"By producing a singular Strategy for Countering Unmanned Systems, the Secretary and the Department are orienting around a common understanding of the challenge and a shared approach to addressing it."
Three U.S. service members were killed in a drone strike in January in Jordan. Experts warned the U.S. lacks a clear counter-drone procedure after 17 unmanned vehicles traipsed into restricted airspace over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia last December.
The mystery drones swarmed for more than two weeks. Lack of a standard protocol for such incursions left Langley officials unsure of what to do – other than allow the 20-foot-long drones to hover near their classified facilities.
Langley is home to some of the nation’s most vital top secret facilities and the F-22 Raptor stealth fighters.
Two months prior to Langley, in October 2023, five drones flew over the Energy Department’s Nevada National Security Site, used for nuclear weapons experiments. U.S. authorities were not sure who was behind those drones either.
The Air Force’s Plant 42 in California, home to highly classified aerospace development, has also seen a slew of unidentified drone incursions in 2024, prompting flight restrictions around the facility.
Islamist leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who led a lightning offensive through Syria, has a long history of extremism despite a recent appeal to moderate policies.
"Golani is a specially designated global terrorist," Bill Roggio, managing editor of Long War Journal, told Fox News Digital. "He was a member of al Qaeda… the U.S. keeps him on the list for a reason."
Roggio’s comments come after Islamist rebels led by Golani’s organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led an offensive throughout Syria that resulted in the capture of the country’s capital, Damascus, and the overthrow of the regime of Bashar Assad, who fled the country Saturday as rebels closed in on the city.
Golani was first drawn to jihadi thinking following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S., according to a report from the Guardian.
He left Syria and joined al Qaeda in Iraq, only to return to his home country in 2011 during a revolt against Assad’s regime, eventually joining the side of al Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2013.
Golani would cut ties with al Qaeda in 2016 and lead a merger between HTS and other Islamist groups in northwest Syria in 2017, bringing him control of territory that had fallen out of government hands during the country’s long civil war.
The U.S. Department of State designated Geolani as a specially designated global terrorist in May 2013, citing his leadership in multiple terrorist attacks throughout Syria that often targeted civilians.
But the terrorist leader has attempted to strike a more moderate tone in recent years, a trend that continued as rebels began their sweeping offensive across Syria.
"No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them," Golani said in regard to Syria’s religious minority groups in an interview with CNN Friday.
But Roggio said there is little evidence that moderate tone would continue as rebels take charge of Syria, arguing Golani plays a good political game.
"He plays the moderate game very well, but he’s a global jihadist. He’s an expert at manipulating," Roggio said.
While Roggio acknowledged there is legitimate justification for Syrians to cheer for the fall of Assad, the worry now turns to what comes next for the long-suffering population.
"It’s understandable that many Syrians are ecstatic over the fall of Assad’s regime, he was a monster," Roggio said. "But I think they’re going to find that what replaces him isn’t going to be much better."
The aftermath of a Russian airstrike on Aleppo, Syria.
Hatip Idlibi/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Russian embassy in Syria has advised Russian citizens to leave the country.
It cited the "difficult military and political situation in Syria," a Russian ally.
The warning came as anti-government rebels advanced on the strategic city of Homs.
The Russian embassy in Syria has advised its citizens to leave the country "in the light of the difficult military and political situation."
In a post on Telegram, the embassy said Russian nationals should leave on commercial flights through operating airports, adding that the embassy continues to operate "as usual."
The announcement comes amid Russian airstrikes targeting rebel forces who launched a surprise offensive against Syrian President Bashar Assad's government forces late last month.
The rebels, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have already taken control of the key cities of Aleppo and Hama, and are continuing their advance toward the city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking the capital Damascus — the seat of Assad's power — to the coast.
Should Homs fall, there would be no major cities between the rebels and Damascus.
Moscow operates two major military bases in Syria, the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base.
The bases have been crucial for Russia's regional interests, providing its forces with important access to the Mediterranean Sea and a "launching pad to move into Africa," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.
Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X that losing Syria would be a big blow for Putin, scuppering many of his plans across the region and damaging his reputation with African governments.
"Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua said.
Moscow intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, but analysts say the ongoing war in Ukraine means it's unlikely to have the resources to provide significant support this time around.
Assad will instead likely have to rely on help from Syria's longtime ally Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.
Iran also helped support Assad against rebel forces in 2015, and Iran-backed militiamen are reported to have begun entering Syria from Iraq to back the embattled president once again.
But this time, it may be difficult for Tehran to pull together sufficient forces, Aron Lund, a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told BI.
"Hezbollah, which was Tehran's primary instrument in Syria over the past decade, is now stuck in Lebanon, tending to its wounds and trying to get back on its feet after being mauled by Israel over the course of a two-month war," Lund said.
He added: "I'm not sure Iran can muster the numbers in time to turn this situation around."
Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government.
Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years.
Here's why Syria is so important for both Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has been carrying out airstrikes on Syrian rebel fighters who are advancing through the country as part of an offensive that has seen them seize control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities.
Syria holds strategic importance for Moscow and Tehran, which have both supported Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled regime.
For Russia, which operates two major military bases in the country — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — Syria offers a key foothold in the region, giving its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a launching pad for operations in Africa.
Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose a Russia-friendly government in Syria for fear of losing the airbase and warm water port crucial to maintaining its influence in the region.
"It's used that port and the base as a launching pad to move into Africa," Hall said. "At one point, there were at least 30 Russian warships in the Mediterranean, whereas just a few years prior, there were none."
Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, said losing Syria would be "a big deal for Russia."
"Most of its plans in the Sahel and Libya revolve around supporting Russia's access to the Mediterranean, without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua wrote on X.
Putin's support for Assad helped boost his popularity in Africa, Riboua continued, adding that losing Syria would "make Putin not just look weak, but look unreliable to many African countries that rely today on Wagner."
Iran's network of proxies
Syria also provides Iran with access to the Mediterranean via a land corridor that extends from Tehran through to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, connecting its proxies in the region.
"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Hall said. "It now has this unimpeded route from Tehran all the way to Lebanon."
Syria is particularly important for Iran's ability to support the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which for over a year has been embroiled in conflict with Israel. Israel has recently thrown this top Iranian ally into disarray, killing its longtime leader and wounding thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. A cease-fire agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah last week.
"Iran is deeply invested in Syria with dozens of military bases and other facilities because the country is critical to Tehran's support for Hezbollah," wrote Steven Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Syria provides Tehran with a place to manufacture weapons and a route to transport them, as well as a command post for Iranian commanders who work with Hezbollah, Cook said.
Tehran may, therefore, see the Syrian conflict as a way to reimpose itself in the region, Riboua said in another post on X.
"Weakened in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran now views the conflict in Syria as an opportunity to reassert its influence by joining the Assad regime against its opposition," Riboua said. "Tehran likely sees this renewed involvement as a chance to restore its legitimacy and strengthen its control over its proxies."
Latest conflict is 'no surprise'
Russian ties with Syria trace back to the Cold War-era when Moscow supplied arms to the country.
The two countries grew closer under the leadership of Putin and Assad, as the former sought to expand and defend Russian interests in the Middle East.
In 2015, this resulted in Russia directly intervening in the country's civil war, which began in 2011, to prop up Assad.
Over the following years, Moscow steadily built up its military presence in Syria, and by 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that more than 63,000 Russian troops had "received combat experience" in the country.
But following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow's Syrian operations were put on the back burner, and it reportedly redeployed some troops, mercenaries, and military equipment from Syria to Ukraine.
Iran and Syria, meanwhile, have had strong relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution.
Iranian troops are also reported to have fought alongside Syrian government forces in 2015.
But like Russia, Iran's priorities have shifted in recent months, with Tehran locked with Israel in a series of escalating long-range strikes.
For the US, that meant the latest offensive seemingly came as no great shock.
Speaking to NBC News, national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that Assad's three key backers, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, had all "been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere."
"So it's no surprise that you see actors in Syria, including the rebels, try to take advantage of that," he added.
For Russia and Iran, the fall of Aleppo will nevertheless come as a humiliating blow, Hall said.
It shows "how weak their ally is, even after 13 years of war," she added.
President-elect Trump promised there would be "all hell to pay" if the hostages being held captive by Hamas are not released prior to when he takes office on Jan. 20.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said nothing was being done to free those being held by the Iran-backed terror group since Oct. 7, 2023, after Hamas attacked Israel and killed at least 1,200 people and kidnapped at least 250 others.
"Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!" Trump wrote.
"Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity," Trump added.
On Saturday, Hamas released a video of an Israeli-American hostage pleading for his release.
The footage shows Edan Alexander, 20, covering his face and crying. He was abducted by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023.
Alexander explained that he had been a prisoner for over 420 days and delivered forced messages to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump. Netanyahu spoke with Alexander's family and is determined "to take every action to bring them back home," his office said Monday.
Trump said those responsible for taking the hostages "will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America."
More than a year after the attacks, a permanent cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas remains elusive. Israeli forces continue to conduct military operations in Gaza.
A cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon was reached in November following a year of attacks targeting Israel's north by Hezbollah. On Monday, Israel said Hezbollah broke the cease-fire by launching two projectiles. No one was harmed.
"We are determined to continue to enforce the cease-fire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah – minor or serious," Netanyahu said.
Massad Boulos worked to boost Donald Trump in Michigan ahead of the general election.
Jeenah Moon for The Washington Post via Getty Images
President-elect Trump has picked Massad Boulos to be his advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs.
Boulos' son, Michael, is married to Donald Trump's youngest daughter, Tiffany Trump.
The announcement comes as Trump aims to reshape Middle East diplomacy in his second term.
As President-elect Donald Trump continues to craft his second-term agenda, he announced a key advisor on Sunday that could impact his handling of affairs in the Middle East.
By tapping Lebanese American businessman Massad Boulos as his senior advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs, Trump is bringing on board a key campaign surrogate whose son Michael is also married to his daughter Tiffany.
The president-elect — who was able to exploit Democratic divisions over the war in Gaza and pry away some Muslim and Arab American voters from Vice President Kamala Harris in the general election — reaffirmed on Sunday that he wants to form "tremendous new coalitions" with Arab Americans.
"Massad is a dealmaker, and an unwavering supporter of PEACE in the Middle East," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. "He will be a strong advocate for the United States, and its interests, and I am pleased to have him on our team!"
Trump's selection of Boulos is a signal that he'll seek his own diplomatic imprint in the Middle East, which for over a year has seen the war in Gaza become one of the most devastating and polarizing ongoing conflicts in the world, reverberating in Lebanon, Yemen, and now Syria.
Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to The Associated Press.
President Joe Biden's handling of the conflict was a significant issue in the US presidential race, with Harris pledging that she and the president were working hard for a cease-fire agreement. But the conflict likely chipped away at Harris' Arab American support, as well as that of some progressive Democrats who had long opposed both the war and American military aid to Israel.
During the 2024 campaign, Boulos traveled throughout Michigan to promote Trump's candidacy among Arab American and Muslim voters, The New York Times reported.
"We don't have to win over everybody," Boulos told the newspaper shortly before the election. "There are some that strongly believe that they wouldn't vote for either of the major candidates. That's fine with us."
Trump went on to flip Michigan, part of the Democratic Party's all-important "blue wall," by a narrow margin — which cut off Harris' clearest path to the White House.
Boulos isn't the only family member who'll have a role in the administration beginning next year.
Trump on Saturday announced that he had selected Charles Kushner, the real estate developer and father of son-in-law Jared Kushner, as his next US ambassador to France.
Ivanka Trump, a senior advisor in Trump's first term, is not expected to be a part of the second administration.
President-elect Trump tapped his daughter Tiffany Trump's father-in-law, Lebanese-American businessman Dr. Massad Boulos, to join his Cabinet as senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs.
"I am proud to announce that Massad Boulos will serve as Senior Advisor to the President on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs," the president-elect wrote on TRUTHSocial. "Massad is an accomplished lawyer and a highly respected leader in the business world, with extensive experience on the International scene. He has been a longtime proponent of Republican and Conservative values, an asset to my Campaign, and was instrumental in building tremendous new coalitions with the Arab American Community. Massad is a dealmaker, and an unwavering supporter of PEACE in the Middle East. He will be a strong advocate for the United States, and its interests, and I am pleased to have him on our team!"
Boulos led efforts to engage the Arab American community, organizing dozens of meetings across Michigan and other areas with large Arab populations.
Some sessions also featured Richard Grenell, former acting director of national intelligence, who was well-regarded by those who met with him.
Trump campaign officials and supporters told Reuters that Boulos helped flip some of the 300,000 Arab Americans and Muslims in Michigan who largely backed Biden in 2020 but later grew frustrated with Biden's policies in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.
Boulos' son, Michael, and Tiffany Trump were married in November 2022 at Mar-a-Lago. Trump revealed during a speech to the Detroit Economic Club in October that Tiffany is pregnant.
Boulos is a billionaire with extensive business connections to Nigeria. He was born in Lebanon but moved to Texas as a teenager. He attended the University of Houston and later became a U.S. citizen.
According to Reuters, Boulos' father and grandfather were involved in Lebanese politics, and his father-in-law backed the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian party affiliated with Hezbollah.
Three sources told Reuters that Boulos' appeal centers on his ability to engage with different factions within Lebanese politics, as he's even maintained relations with Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shi'ite Muslim party and terrorist group that largely controls the parliament. Boulos is friends with Suleiman Frangieh, a Christian politician backed by Hezbollah for the presidency, and has been in communication with the Lebanese Forces Party, a Christian faction that staunchly opposes Hezbollah.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Internal AWS documents obtained by BI lay out the cloud giant's growth priorities next year.
The company is focusing on at least 7 areas with codenames such as "ACDC" and "T2K."
AWS faces competition from Microsoft and Google, though it leads the cloud market.
Amazon Web Services recently laid out new growth initiatives that include a focus on healthcare, business applications, generative AI, and the Middle East region, according to internal documents obtained by Business Insider.
These are part of the AWS sales team's priorities for next year and Amazon refers to them internally as "AGIs," short for "AWS growth initiatives," one of the internal documents shows.
Greg Pearson, AWS's VP of global sales, recently told employees that these AGIs are designed to drive "needle-moving, incremental revenue" and bring an "array of customers, faster than ever," a separate internal email seen by BI showed.
For AWS, the success of these initiatives is consequential. Competition from Microsoft and Google keeps growing and the rise of generative AI has put more pressure on AWS, particularly its sales team, BI previously reported. The company may share more details on these initiatives next week, when it hosts its annual re:Invent conference.
AWS revenue continued to reaccelerate in the most recent quarter, jumping 19% to $27.5 billion. That was slower than Microsoft's and Google's cloud business, on a percentage basis.
Amazon regularly adds more cloud revenue than its rivals, in absolute dollar terms. And the company still accounts for 30% of the global cloud infrastructure market, ahead of Microsoft's 20% and Google's 12% share, according to Synergy Research Group.
"We obsess over our customers and are proud of the many tailored programs we have in place to help them take advantage of the reliability, scale, and innovative services that AWS has to offer," AWS spokesperson Patrick Neighorn wrote in an email to BI.
Amazon Web Services' CEO Matt Garman
Frederic J. BROWN / AFP/ Getty Images
Here are 7 of the "AGIs" for 2025 that AWS described in the internal document:
Accelerate to the Cloud from Data Centers (ACDC)
Amazon wants to fast-track customers to AWS's cloud-computing services. Ideal customers are companies that run their own data centers, have strong senior-level relationships with AWS, or have experience with AWS or other cloud-computing services, the document explained.
It added that AWS is "uniquely positioned" to win because it has longer experience in the cloud than competitors and can offer potential customers the right structure and incentives.
AWS Top 2000 (T2K)
AWS is targeting the world's largest companies with multiple billions of dollars in revenue, starting with those on the Forbes Global 2000 list, the document stated. It breaks down customers by contract size and growth stage.
These companies have very large, highly complex technical architectures requiring significant investment and time. AWS wants to customize solutions based on each company and industry, and speed up deals by using external consultants and partners, it added.
Business Applications Acceleration
AWS is focused on "winning the largest Business Application providers" in the enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM) markets.
Many companies still use their own data centers to run business applications from providers such as Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow.
Amazon wants to drive growth by getting more of these applications running on AWS's cloud, the document said.
Long-Range Plan: Middle East
The document lists the Middle East market as one of the top business opportunities. In March, for example, AWS announced plans to invest more than $5 billion in Saudi Arabia.
AWS also launched in Bahrain, the UAE, and Israel in 2019, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
IDC estimates the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, to have a cloud infrastructure market opportunity of $2.8 billion in 2024 and $15.5 billion by 2030.
Generative AI Innovation Center
Last year, AWS launched a $100 million program called Generative AI Innovation Center, which connects customers with AWS's AI scientists and experts to help launch generative AI solutions.
AWS plans to lean on this program to help customers build proofs of concept with generative AI and deploy new products, the document said. AWS's spokesperson told BI that more than 50% of the proof-of-concept solutions developed through this program are now in production.
AWS thinks generative AI is still in its "infancy," where customers are caught between "embracing innovation while also needing to play it safe," the document added. But the potential keeps growing, and its customers understand they need to "act fast," it explained.
IT & Application Outsourcing
AWS plans to expand its work external partners, including Accenture and Tata Consultancy, that can sell AWS services to hundreds of their existing customers, the document explained. AWS sees an untapped market worth $250 billion and thousands of contracts up for renewal, it added.
AWS will prioritize these partners' existing customers and proactively reach out to them before contract-renewal time, and help the partners become "cloud-first," the document said.
Epic Growth Initiative
AWS wants to onboard more customers to Epic System's electronic medical record software, hosted on AWS's cloud infrastructure, the document said. AWS and Epic have been close partners for years.
AWS wants to target hundreds of medical providers that use Epic's own data center services, and work with industry partners to "accelerate proactive moves to Epic on AWS," it added.
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President Biden announced Tuesday that Israel has reached a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon that would end nearly 14 months of fighting, and while some U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle congratulated efforts to reach a stop to the conflict, others suggest this is nothing but a political football.
While speaking from the White House Rose Garden, Biden said Israel and Lebanon agreed to the deal, adding that Israel retains the right to defend itself should Hezbollah break the pact.
"Let's be clear. Israel did not launch this war. The Lebanese people did not seek that war either. Nor did the United States," Biden said. "Security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield. And that's why I directed my team to work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon, to forge a cease-fire, to bring a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to a close."
Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder was asked about a potential cease-fire deal during a press briefing on Tuesday and said the Department of Defense (DoD) was "very supportive" of the ceasefire. He also said the DoD plays an important role in working with partners in the Middle East region to prevent a wider conflict.
Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., who serves as the chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence called the agreement "a welcome development for the region."
"This agreement to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people, is a welcome development for the region and should increase pressure on Hamas to reach a ceasefire agreement to end the fighting and destruction in the Gaza Strip, which has already claimed so many innocent lives," Warner said. "I applaud diplomatic efforts by the Biden administration and other international partners over many months in helping to reach this point."
Also weighing in on the deal was Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who said he was pleased to hear the agreement between Israel and Hezbollah had been reached.
"Well done to all those involved in reaching this agreement," he said. "I appreciate the hard work of the Biden Administration, supported by President Trump, to make this ceasefire a reality. This ceasefire will protect Israel from another October 7th and will give the people of Lebanon a break from the fighting.
"My hope is that we can soon achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and allow peaceful solutions to replace endless conflict," he added.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on the other hand, was not so quick to congratulate the Biden administration’s efforts in reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
He said Israeli allies accomplished enormous military successes over the past year against Hezbollah, resulting in the death of thousands of Hezbollah terrorists and eliminating the entire command of the Iranian-backed terrorist group.
"These actions have directly contributed to vital American national security interests, including directly by liquidating terrorist leaders who had the blood of hundreds of American on their hands," Cruz said. "Indeed, the U.S.-Israel relationship is at the core of U.S. interests in the Middle East, and American policy should be to provide unequivocal military and diplomatic support to our Israeli allies to fully ensure their security."
He then turned to the Biden administration’s tactics and timing in conjunction with President-elect Trump’s return to the White House.
"The Biden administration has spent the last four years pathologically obsessed with undermining Israel and boosting Iran, including by coercing our Israeli allies to cede maritime territory to Hezbollah," Cruz noted. "They are now using the transition period to the Trump administration and a Republican Congress to try to lock in those efforts — and to constrain the incoming administration — by establishing what they believe to be irreversible diplomatic, legal, and military policies. However, these and similar international policies are not irreversible."
Cruz and 10 other senators signed a letter saying the U.S. will re-evaluate its relationship with the United Nations and with Palestinians if Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas fulfills a pledge he made to secure the expulsion of Israel from the U.N. General Assembly.
Cruz also said he joined his colleagues in vowing to act against the International Criminal Court for undermining American and Israeli interests by issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and said everyone involved in the decision should face American sanctions.
He then accused Obama-Biden officials for pressuring Israeli allies into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons necessary to defend themselves against Hezbollah, while also threatening to facilitate a binding international arms embargo through the U.N.
"Obama-Biden officials are already trying to use Israel's acceptance of this cease-fire to ensure that Hezbollah and other Iranian terrorist groups remain intact across Lebanon, and to limit Israel's future freedom of action and self-defense," Cruz claimed. "Administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, today even downplayed Israel's right under the cease-fire to strike terrorist groups in Lebanon when those groups pose imminent threats.
"These constraints have been rejected by our Israeli allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that under the cease-fire Israel retains full freedom of action to counter Hezbollah if the group attacks Israel or tries to rebuild its terrorist infrastructure," he added. "The United States should allow and assist Israel in doing so, and I am committed to working closely with the Trump administration and my colleagues in the incoming Congress to ensure they are able to do."
Fox News Digital’s Luis Casiano contributed to this report.
President-elect Trump will take office just as Iran has the potential to become the world’s 10th nuclear-armed state, and it’s unclear if either side knows how it will approach the other.
Judging by Trump’s last time in office, it would suggest he would come out the gate with a combative tone — having instituted a "maximum pressure" campaign to "bankrupt" the regime. His secretary of state pick, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has been an unyielding Iran hawk in the Senate.
After the regime fired 200 missiles toward Tel Aviv last month, Rubio said: "Only threatening the survival of the regime through maximum pressure and direct and disproportionate measures has a chance to influence and alter their criminal activities."
That could reinstate — and eliminate — any waivers for oil sanctions. It could mean threatening not to conduct business with countries that buy Iranian fuel products.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick for national security adviser, is of a similar mind.
Last month, when the Biden administration urged Israel to keep its counterstrikes "proportional," Waltz slammed President Biden for pressuring Israel "once again to do less than it should."
He suggested Israel strike oil facilities on Kharg Island and Iran’s nuclear plants in Natanz, a move the Biden team feared Iran would deem escalatory.
Last month, Trump appeared to rule out the U.S. getting involved in any effort to take out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and his government. "We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it," he said.
"I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can't have a nuclear weapon."
Trump has said he does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but has not laid out how he would stop it from doing so.
"I'm not looking to be bad to Iran, we're going to be friendly, I hope, with Iran, maybe, but maybe not. But we're going to be friendly, I hope, we're going to be friendly, but they can't have a nuclear weapon," he said at a New Jersey press conference in August.
Last month, Trump suggested Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Following the Iranian missile attacks, he suggested Israel should "hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later."
On Thursday, Iran said it was activating "advanced" centrifuges after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors censured it for failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Without cooperation, the world is in the dark about how quickly Iran is advancing its technological capabilities to use its uranium fuel for a bomb.
"We will significantly increase enrichment capacity," Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran's atomic energy organization spokesman, said after the censure.
What’s standing between Iran and a fully formed nuclear weapon is both a political and a technological question.
While the nation has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the process of turning that into a warhead could take anywhere from six to 12 months, according to Nicole Grajewski, nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"That’s when Iran would be most vulnerable to attack," she said. "Iran could probably make a dirty bomb from its current stockpile."
Over the years, Iran’s nuclear progress has been set back by international sanctions, COVID-19, high-profile assassinations of its nuclear scientists and attacks and sabotage on its nuclear facilities led by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.
And announcing they have a nuclear weapon could threaten Iran’s longtime goal of regional hegemony.
"Iran is less isolated than it was four years ago, but it’s still pretty isolated. Announcing they are nuclear would trigger an arms race in the Middle East," predicted Simone Leeden, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East.
"Saudi Arabia and the UAE would decide they will pursue nuclear weapons the minute Iran declares it has its own. Another action they could and would take is deepening ties with Israel."
Iran also understands that producing a nuclear bomb would likely evoke a military response from Israel and the U.S. under Trump.
After years of trying to assassinate Trump, the Iranians don’t seem to have figured out whether to approach the U.S. relationship under Trump with a combative or diplomatic tone. Just last month, they told President Biden they would not make any efforts to kill the president-elect going forward.
"I think that there's been a lot of mixed signaling from the kind of Trump transition team is, you know, you see Brian Hook being appointed, who was behind this maximum pressure and sanctions," said Grajewski. But then, on the other hand, Trump envoy Elon Musk reportedly met with Iranian officials to discuss how the two nations could dial back tensions.
"I think that he is being opaque on purpose," said Leeden. "I don't think he wants to show his cards as a negotiator."
"In all likelihood, maximum pressure is going to be restored," said Behnam Taleblu, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "U.S. partners are asking now, to what end? Is it towards regime collapse? Is it towards a deal? What if the Iranians don't negotiate in good faith?"
Former Israeli officials have suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be emboldened to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with the go-ahead from the Trump administration. But a lot of Iran’s centrifuge and enrichment facilities are deep underground, complicating a bombing campaign against them.
To get to them, Israel would need the U.S.' Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), or "bunkbuster bombs."
"It would require U.S. involvement — either the direct transfer of this, which is currently not really discussed — that would be pretty escalatory — or Israel getting the United States to also conduct this mission," said Grajewski.
The Trump team will also place a high priority on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, solidifying the Sunni Muslim alliance against Iran. But the Saudis have insisted the U.S. and Israel must recognize a Palestinian state for such a deal to get done.
"The incoming administration wants to quiet down this kinetic energy in the Middle East quickly, because we have bigger fish to fry as a country," said Leeden.
The U.S. has long looked to pivot its military focus away from the Middle East and toward the Indo-Pacific. The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas after Oct. 7 tore that focus back to the Arab world.
An effort by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to block certain U.S. weapons sales to Israel was overwhelmingly rejected by the U.S. Senate Wednesday evening.
Sanders' joint resolution of disapproval, which was supported by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.; and Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., intended to stop the White House's latest arms sales to the Israeli military. An effort to block the sales of tank rounds to Israel was voted down 79-18, and a measure intending to block mortar round shipments was rejected 78-19.
Speaking on the Senate floor, Sanders claimed the Israeli government is controlled "not only by right-wing extremists, but by religious zealots."
"It is time to tell the Netanyahu government that they cannot use U.S. taxpayer dollars and American weapons in violation of U.S. and international law and our moral values despite receiving $18 billion from U.S. taxpayers in the last year," Sanders said.
"And being the largest historical recipient of U.S. foreign aid, the Netanyahu government has completely ignored the repeated requests of President Biden and the U.S. government."
The 83-year-old politician also decried living conditions in Gaza during his speech.
"Right now, there is raw sewage running through the streets of Gaza, and it is very difficult for the people there to obtain clean drinking water," Sanders said. "Every one of Gaza's 12 universities has been bombed … as have many hundreds of schools. For 13 months, there has been no electricity in Gaza.
"As I have said many, many times, Israel had the absolute right to respond to that horrific Hamas attack as any other country would," Sanders concluded. "I don't think anybody here in the United States Senate disagrees with that. But Prime Minister Netanyahu's extremist government has not simply waged war against Hamas. It has waged an all-out war against the Palestinian people."
Despite the vote, Sanders' effort was not wholly unpopular. Earlier this week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., signaled support for the Vermont Independent's proposal.
"The failure by the Biden administration to follow U.S. law and to suspend arms shipments is a grave mistake that undermines American credibility worldwide," Warren said in a statement to The Guardian.
"If this administration will not act, Congress must step up to enforce U.S. law and hold the Netanyahu government accountable through a joint resolution of disapproval."
Fox News Digital's Jessica Sonkin and Alec Schemmel contributed to this report.
