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• North Korean troops are engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces, the White House said.
• They've had a rough start, and seem to lack experience with drones and working with Russians.
• This has led to reported losses, but analysts said they should be able to learn to adapt.

North Korean troops have engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, with media and intelligence reports suggesting they're off to a rough start.

Footage obtained by Radio Liberty on Monday showed Ukraine striking a group of soldiers, with sources telling the outlet that North Koreans were among them.

The same day, Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops were operating in big groups out in the open, and were getting killed by drones they didn't realize were dangerous.

A senior US military official said this week that North Korea's dead and wounded could now be counted in the hundreds.

Military analysts told BI that, while the limited number of early reports makes it difficult to give a definitive assessment, they're not surprised by the reports.

"The North Koreans are taking apparently unnecessary casualties as they are rushed into combat without a period of training on the unique threats here," said Wallace Gregson, a former US Marine Corps officer and former assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.

Uncharted territory

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

Evans Revere, a senior advisor with Albright Stonebridge Group, said that while North Korean troops seemed "disciplined" and "tough," their lack of experience in ground combat and unfamiliarity with drone warfare was taking its toll.

He said that the reported casualty numbers suggest that North Korean forces are in the "thick of heavy fighting" and that "if the North Koreans continue to suffer casualties at this rate, they will very soon require fresh forces."

Revere also said their lack of Russian language and absence of experience in training and operating jointly with Russian forces seemed to be a problem.

On Saturday, Ukrainian intelligence said North Korean troops opened fire on Russian military vehicles, killing eight soldiers, due to a language barrier between the two forces.

Too early, too inexperienced

The last time North Korean troops really fought was during the Korean War, where fighting ended in 1953.

Gregson said that this time around, Russia may have thrown North Korean troops to the front in earlier waves of attacks, which he said usually include the "least-trained" soldiers.

He told BI that "high casualties" weren't unexpected, given their light infantry capabilities and the likely language barrier.

However, he said you needed to respect their "apparent courage and determination — and sacrifice — in a conflict not of their choosing far from their home."

Military analysts also said that the North Korean troops could soon adapt to the new battlefield conditions.

Revere said it won't be long before the North Koreans learn how to operate in this environment.

However, he said it's "still not clear" how well Russian and North Korean troops are operating in tandem, or whether Russian commanders are providing good leadership and guidance.

The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Thursday that Russian and North Korean forces were "almost certainly" experiencing difficulties, with North Korean troops struggling to integrate into Russia's command and control structure.

Another major issue is their unfamiliarity with modern battlefield warfare.

John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the evidence so far suggests North Korean troops were unprepared for the drone threat.

But, he said, "I suspect they'll adapt with time and may have started doing so already."

Covering up deaths

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia has been trying to conceal North Korean deaths. In a nightly address on Monday, he claimed that Russian forces were burning the faces of killed soldiers to conceal their identity.

Revere said attempts to cover up the deaths were likely part of Russia's effort to avoid admitting to the Russian people that the country lacks the ability to defeat Ukraine by itself.

North Korea has also often been the object of ridicule in Russia, he added, "so for the Russians to have to admit their need for DPRK support would be embarrassing."

For North Korea, the stakes are also high.

Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, said that Kim Jong Un is taking risks by sending troops to support Russia, especially potential elite-class military personnel.

He said that Kim is unlikely to want to return the bodies of those killed to their families, fearing potential instability inside North Korea.

"Kim will likely prefer that the soldiers who are killed simply disappear," he said.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin caps each year with an hours-long, choreographed Q&A session.
• Key moments on Thursday covered Russia's fragile economy, the invasion of Ukraine, and Donald Trump.
• Putin sought to project an image of a powerful, thriving Russia, despite heavy challenges before him.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his marathon annual press conference on Thursday.

During the event, Putin fielded questions from members of the Russian public and journalists on issues ranging from spiking food prices to the war in Ukraine and global instability.

Here are some telling moments.

1) He acknowledged that Russia's economy is in a bad place

Putin opened the phone-in to discuss Russia's economy, acknowledging the inflation and high interest rates pummeling the country.

Russia's key interest rate stands at 21%, while inflation is at 8.9%.

Putin sought to ready the Russian people for more pain, saying inflation could hit 9.5% in 2025.

He said price rises — especially for food — had been an "unpleasant and bad" outcome.

Soaring prices — particularly of eggs — prompted a rare apology from Putin last year.

2) He didn't take all the blame, though

Putin didn't take total responsibility for the economic situation.

Per Reuters, he said both the central bank and the Russian federal government — which is formally run not by Putin but by the Russian prime minister — could have done better to stop the economy overheating.

He denied Western sanctions were having a significant impact on the Russian economy.

"They are not a key factor," Putin claimed.

3) Putin couldn't say when he would retake captured Russian land

Putin was bullish on his invasion of Ukraine, boasting of recent territorial gains by Russian forces there.

But, unlike last year, he also had to contend with the reality of Ukrainian troops continuing to occupy Russian soil in the Kursk region.

The Kursk attack was the first foreign military incursion into Russia since World War II, and a huge embarrassment for the Kremlin.

One caller to Putin asked when she could return home to Kursk — and Putin couldn't answer.

"For sure, we will get rid of them" Putin said. He declined to give a date, saying that it would put Russian soldiers at risk.

Troops would "try to deliver on that without regard for their own lives," he said of what would follow if he gave specifics.

4) He boasted about Russia's new missile

The Russian president once again claimed that Russia had developed a new ballistic missile that Western defenses were incapable of intercepting.

Russia fired the powerful Oreshnik missile last month at Dnipro, Ukraine. Analysts saw the attack as a thinly disguised threat to the West after the US and its allies allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Ukrainian officials said at the time that the missile was unusually powerful, and Putin claimed Thursday it travels at Mach 10, or ten times the speed of sound.

Western air defenses "stands no chance" of intercepting it, Putin said.

Some analysts were more measured in their assessment of the strike. The UK's Royal United Services Institute wrote in a recent analysis that the deployment of the Oreshnik was "more about political signalling than military utility in the war."

5) Putin was on the back foot over Syria's collapse

In response to a question by NBC News, Putin lengthily sought to rebut the idea that the collapse of the government in Syria leaves Russia weakened.

Putin had been a major international backer of the ousted Syrian president Bashar Assad, who fled to Moscow in the face of a rebel advance.

Business Insider reported that the swift collapse had caught Russia off guard, as well as Iran, Assad's other major supporter.

Putin defended Russia's support for Assad, claiming that its interventions there succeeded in preventing Syria from becoming a "terroristic enclave" like Afghanistan.

6) He left the door open for Trump

Putin said he was willing to meet President-elect Donald Trump but had not been contacted by Trump's team about a meeting.

"I am ready to meet him if he wants it," he says.

Trump has claimed he'll bring peace to Ukraine by forcing Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate.

It remains unclear what concessions either Ukraine or Russia might be willing to make to end the war.

7) Putin loved touting his friendship with China

The Russian president said that relations between Russia and China have never been better.

"We'll do nothing that will undermine the confidence" China has in Russia, said Putin. He described China's leader, Xi Jinping, as his friend.

Putin went on to describe how Russia fought alongside Chinese forces during World War II against Japan invaded.

"We stood side by side with China then and we stand side by side them now," Putin said.

Xi has spoken similarly warmly of Putin. But beneath the bromance vibes there are significant tensions.

China has provided key diplomatic and economic support to Russia in its Ukraine invasion.

But analysts say Putin likely resents being a junior partner to Xi, which vastly outstrips Russia in its population and economy.

• Russia may deploy its navy to protect its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil.
• The West has increased sanctions on Russia's oil industry and is zooming in on its shadow fleet.
• Russia's economy faces challenges like inflation, a weak ruble, and high interest rates.

Russia may ratchet up "risky and threatening behavior" against NATO countries, including by using the Russian navy to escort its shadow fleet through Danish waters, Denmark said on Wednesday.

The Danish Defense Intelligence Service made the assessment in its annual security outlook published on Wednesday.

"If this happens, it will increase the level of tension," said the Danish intelligence agency.

Denmark's assessment came as the West turns up sanctions against Russia's important oil industry, a key contributor to its war chest.

On Monday, the European Union sanctioned more Russian dark fleet vessels — designated as such because they dodge the G7's oil price cap by either submitting falsified financial statements or not having proper insurance coverage. A day later, the UK also broadened its sanctions against these vessels.

On Tuesday, a dozen Western countries, including Denmark, the UK, Germany, Finland, and Estonia, agreed to step up checks on the insurance coverage of suspected shadow tankers transporting Russian oil.

Russia's shadow fleet of mostly aging oil tankers grew after the G7 imposed an oil price cap on Russian oil in December 2022. The shadow fleet has helped Russia circumvent Western restrictions and allowed it to continue trading its oil at market prices, according to the EU.

Energy accounts for about one-fifth of Russia's GDP. The country's oil revenue fell 24% last year on the back of sanctions.

Oil revenues continue to be under pressure this year. Russia exported an average of 70,000 barrels of crude a day so far — 2% lower than the 2023 average, Bloomberg reported.

Russian economy under strain

The West's increasing pressure on Russia's energy trade is aimed at further straining the country's finances after nearly three years of war.

While Russia's economy has helped build strong financial buffers in the past years as war raged on, the economy faces "increasingly large unsustainable burdens," wrote Mark Sobel, the US chair of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a think tank, this week.

The energy giant's lucrative oil industry is also under pressure from global energy market dynamics, including an abundance of supply and slowing demand.

Russia faces numerous economic challenges, including soaring inflation, the plummeting ruble, record-high interest rates of 21%, and capital controls.

"Even if sanctions and blocked Russian assets are not going to bring Russia's economy to its knees in one fell swoop, they remain powerful leverage and can be used more forcefully in any agreement to end the fighting and secure Ukraine's future," wrote Sobel.

The U.S. on Wednesday issued fresh sanctions against several Russian-linked entities and individuals involved in the building of Nord Stream 2, the massive undersea gas pipeline linking Russia to Germany.

The State Department said it has re-imposed financial penalties against entities and individuals involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2, including project operator, Nord Stream 2 AG, and a Russian-based insurer that worked with companies involved in the pipeline's construction. 

Others included in the sanctions were a Russian-owned maritime rescue service, a Russian-based water transport logistics company, and more than a dozen vessel owners that were either formerly under sanctions designations or were being sanctioned for the first time.

State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters Wednesday that the U.S. remains opposed to Nord Stream 2 as well as any efforts to revive it.

'WRONG-HEADED': ENERGY INDUSTRY LEADERS BLAST BIDEN ADMIN REPORT ON NATURAL GAS EXPORTS

Officials also cited Russia’s ongoing efforts to weaponize its energy resources, including throttling its piped gas supplies to Europe shortly after the start of its war in Ukraine in 2022.

"We're going to continue to work and ensure that Russia is never able to weaponize its energy resources and its energy positioning for political gain," Patel said of the new sanctions.

News of the new sanctions designations comes after both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe were hit by a series of explosions in late September 2022. 

To date, no one has taken responsibility for the blasts, which U.S. and other Western leaders have described as an act of potential "sabotage." 

Russia has dismissed suggestions that it would blow up its own pipeline, with Russian President Vladimir Putin describing such a move as "idiotic."

PENTAGON ANNOUNCES NEW COUNTER-DRONE STRATEGY AS UNMANNED ATTACKS ON US INTERESTS SKYROCKET

Though neither pipeline was operational at the time, both lines were filled with gas under pressure.

Prior to Russia's war in Ukraine, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline had supplied roughly 35% of the European Union’s total Russian gas imports before Moscow halted supplies indefinitely citing "maintenance" needs. Nord Stream 2 was expected to double that capacity.

In the years since Russia’s war in Ukraine began, the EU has scrambled to offset its reliance on Russian energy supplies, including by purchasing more liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and other suppliers, by devoting more resources toward nuclear power and by building more regasification terminals, among other things.

• Gazprom's share price hit a 15-year low amid ongoing export challenges to Europe.
• It comes after the company posted its first annual loss since 1999 in May.
• The EU is pushing to phase out its use of Russian gas, impacting Gazprom's European market share.

Gazprom's share price tumbled to a new low on Wednesday, the latest episode in a calamitous year for the Russian state-owned energy juggernaut.

According to Russian outlet RBC, Gazprom's 106.1-ruble share price on Tuesday represented its lowest value since January 2009. As of Wednesday, the share price had dropped further to 105.75 rubles.

In comparison, just before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Gazprom's share price hovered around 300 rubles.

Analysts speaking to RBC attributed the slide to broader market factors as well as roadblocks in Gazprom's ability to export gas to Europe, as the continent doubles down on its commitment to end its dependence on Russian energy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In May, Gazprom posted its first annual loss since 1999, and its share price immediately dropped by 4.4%. It continued to tumble through June, to a then-low of around 113 rubles.

The dreary May report reflected Gazprom's "loss of a significant share of the European gas market," Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Business Insider.

Impact of Russia's war

Prior to 2022, Europe sourced around 40% of its natural gas from Russia. In June, a Gazprom report seen by the Financial Times said that it would take a decade for the company to recoup losses caused by the war in Ukraine.

Compounding the concerns, an agreement to transit Russian gas via Ukraine is set to end on January 1, 2025.

In September, European Commissioner Kadri Simson said that the EU is "fully committed" to phasing out Russian gas via the Ukraine pipeline. "We started preparing two years ago," she said.

The move away from Russian gas is not without its headaches for EU countries, and Slovakia is leading efforts from some affected countries to stop this flow running out.

On Monday, following a meeting with Slovakia's prime minister, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reiterated what the country had been signaling for some time: that it has no interest in renewing the deal.

He added, however, that Ukraine is open to the transit of gas from other sources.

Yafimava told BI that "the transit question is still hanging in the balance," but a recent decision by Austrian energy company OMV to cut ties with Gazprom amid a thorny contract dispute has "arguably weakened" its chances of continuing.

OMV's decision earlier this month was a historic blow to Gazprom, with the company among the first in Western Europe to import and invest in Russian gas during the Soviet era.

Industry experts told Business Insider this month that the end of the OMV deal was a significant indicator of Europe's success in weaning itself off Russian energy, one that would have been unthinkable before the invasion of Ukraine.

Even so, Gazprom's problems in Europe are not a death knell for the company, Yafimava said.

Gazprom can stay afloat thanks to the large domestic gas market in Russia, she said, adding that the blow had been cushioned by sharply increased gas prices.

Gazprom needs to find new markets "while the cushion lasts," she added.

One option ahead for it is an agreement over Power of Siberia 2, a Russia-China pipeline that would sharply increase exports to China. "In my view, this will eventually happen," Yafimava said.

In a wide-ranging interview with a Russian television station, the chief executive of Russia's main space corporation said the country is now planning to participate in the International Space Station project all the way to NASA's desired goal of 2030.

"In coordination with our American colleagues, we plan to de-orbit the station sometime around the beginning of 2030," the country's chief space official, Yuri Borisov, said during the interview. "The final scenario will probably be specified after the transition to a new NASA administration."

While the documents for such an extension have not been signed, these comments appear to represent a change in tone from Russia. When he first became head of Roscosmos in 2022, Borisov said Russia would leave the station partnership "after" 2024, which was interpreted as shortly thereafter. Later, Russia committed to working with NASA to keep the orbital outpost flying only through 2028. The US space agency has expressed a consistent desire to keep flying the station until 2030, after which point it hopes that private space station operators can provide one or more replacement facilities.

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• Ukraine said it stopped a Russian spy group gathering information on its F-16 fighter jets.
• The group wanted to find out details on the airfields F-16s may be using, it said.
• Ukraine said the group's leader was detained and other members indicted.

Ukraine said it disrupted a Russian spy ring that was collecting information on the F-16 fighter jets it was given by its Western allies.

The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, said on Tuesday that it had neutralized a network of Russian spies that was gathering information about military targets, including its F-16s.

According to the SBU, the group was tasked with trying to discover the locations of military airfields where F-16 fighter jets might be kept, as well as the locations of Ukraine's air-defense systems and companies that make electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones.

It said the group was working across five regions in Ukraine and was deployed by Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU.

It is not clear how much information, if any, the group was able to gather.

The SBU said its operation exposed 12 Russian agents and their informants.

Some of them were deserters who had left Ukraine's military and were recruited by Russia while hiding from punishment, it said, adding that they used their contacts, like Ukrainian soldiers in front-line areas, to try to gather intelligence.

Ukraine's Prosecutor's Office said one deceitfully recruited three soldiers he knew by pretending to work for Ukrainian intelligence, Pravda reported.

The SBU said agents who received the information would then go to the area of potential targets to gather extra intelligence.

According to Radio Free Europe, the group's organizer was detained and prominent members were indicted on charges related to state treason and the unauthorized disclosure of military information about the movement and location of Ukrainian forces.

Other members of the group could also face charges, the report said.

The SBU said suspects could face sentences ranging from eight years to life in prison, with their property confiscated.

The F-16s are the most powerful jets in Ukraine's arsenal, making them a major military and propaganda target for Russia.

Ukraine began receiving F-16s this summer, after repeated requests for the planes. Air warfare experts say the jets are a major boost to Ukraine's defenses, helping it protect cities and other targets from Russian drone and missile attacks.

Russia began targeting Ukrainian bases where F-16s could be kept before the first ones arrived, but there have been no reports of it successfully hitting bases when the jets have been present.

Despite their perceived importance, experts say Ukraine is not receiving enough F-16s to make a major difference, and it can't use them to launch raids or go on the attack unless it gets more.

The F-16s being given to Ukraine are also decades old — and are less powerful than Russia's best jets and the most advanced planes deployed by Ukraine's allies.

• North Korean troops don't realize drones are dangerous and are sitting ducks, Ukraine troops said.
• They have engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk, per US and Ukraine officials.
• A couple hundred were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a US official said.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops are frequently getting killed by drones they don't seem to consider dangerous.

The accounts point to an apparent gap in the knowledge of the troops sent by Kim Jong Un to support Russia's invasion.

The prevalence and effectiveness of drones is a defining feature of the war in Ukraine, and experienced soldiers there have described to Business Insider a widespread fear of them.

But North Korea's troops are new to the war, separated by a language barrier, and appear not to have the same approach.

Three Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region of Russia told the Post that waves of what seemed to be North Korean forces advanced directly at Ukrainian positions defended by drones and other weapons.

"We were very surprised; we had never seen anything like it — 40 to 50 people running across a field," one drone commander told the Post.

"FPV drones, artillery, and other weapons struck them because they were moving in the open field," he said. "You can imagine the result."

Another drone operator, Artem, told the outlet that instead of running away from the drones, the North Korean troops shot at them "indiscriminately," while others just kept moving. Many were killed, he said.

During a nighttime drone operation, Artem said he recognized three soldiers based on their heat signatures on a thermal camera and anticipated killing only one — but when the other two failed to react fast enough, he and his comrades struck all three.

He described the experience as "bizarre," adding, "It was the first time it felt like playing a computer simulator on easy mode."

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

During a press briefing that same day, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said they had indications that North Korean soldiers engaged in combat in Kursk had suffered losses.

At least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded during assault operations near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka in or near the Kursk region last weekend, Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) said on Monday.

A couple hundred North Korean troops were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a senior military official told the Associated Press on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the GUR said North Korean troops had set up extra observation posts, fearing Ukrainian drone attacks after suffering serious losses.

• Trump's return to power comes as Ukraine struggles to stop Russia's advance.
• Trump says he'll move quickly to end the war, but Russia may be disinclined to negotiate now.
• Here are four scenarios for how the war could play out.

With the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its fourth year, attention is turning to President-elect Donald Trump and how his return to power may affect the conflict.

Trump looms as a distressing question mark for Ukraine, which has leaned into personal diplomacy to make its case in the weeks since his election. As a candidate, Trump called the war "a loser" and vowed to end it in 24 hours without saying how he would do so.

The US has provided the bulk of international security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing more than $60 billion so far. Drastic cuts or zeroing of this could enable Russia to achieve the decisive breakthrough it has so far been denied.

As both Kyiv and Moscow scramble to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of any changes Trump's administration may bring, Business Insider has taken a look at four ways the war could play out.

A cease-fire deal and frozen lines

The possibility of a temporary halt to the fighting has received renewed attention with Trump's reelection.

Trump, who has pledged to bring the war to a swift end when he returns to office, took to Truth Social on December 8 to call for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he said, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war, suggested such a deal could be achieved if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."

John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told Business Insider that Ukraine was seemingly moving away from its "maximal position" of getting back all its occupied territory but that it would want "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western nations reluctant to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome was the war being "frozen" roughly where it is now, he continued, adding that a "settlement is just too ambitious at this stage."

Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by force before launching a broader invasion in 2022. Putin, furthermore, has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictional, and many observers worry a pause of a few years will allow Russia to train more troops and stockpile more weapons ahead of another offensive.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that any peace deal brokered by Trump would likely involve some form of territorial concession.

"It's hard to imagine that it would be stable," Cancian said. "It's easy to imagine another war in a couple of years."

Long-term war

Another possibility is that Russia refuses to compromise and the fighting continues. War experts with the Institute for the Study of War think tank, for example, have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are not likely to seriously pursue negotiations while that continues.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant levels of continued Western aid, which could be a hard sell for Kyiv. Both Trump and the vice president-elect, JD Vance, have been openly skeptical of US support for Ukraine under the Biden administration.

It would also put further strain on Ukraine's manpower as well as its economy, which is already facing "intensifying" headwinds, as the International Monetary Fund said in a September update.

While Russia, too, is facing its own economic issues — the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% in October in an effort to combat high inflation — some analysts have said Moscow could go for years before it has to confront its overspending.

"For Ukraine, the long war is nothing short of disastrous," James Nixey, the director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in February. "The country cannot recruit anything like the numbers Russia can press into service. It also places greater value on human life than its opponent, meaning it inevitably suffers more from a protracted war of attrition."

However, a long war is likely to strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at what may be an unsustainable pace, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing its troop losses.

Russian victory

Putin wanted a swift military victory when his forces launched the full-scale invasion.

Almost three years later, that goal has been well and truly quashed, but Moscow could still claim victory — which would likely mean occupying more of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyy in favor of a deferential head-of-state.

For Kyiv, a worst-case scenario would see its forces' frontlines collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support, Cancian said.

In such an instance, Ukraine would likely be forced into ceding large chunks of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnipro potentially coming under Russian control through either annexation or effective oversight, he added.

Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine in recent months, straining Ukrainian defenses and compounding Kyiv's much-reported manpower shortage.

While Russia itself continues to suffer high casualties, it has been able to draw on vastly superior numbers while also adding extra recruits from North Korea to support its offensives.

Moscow has also appeared intent on avoiding distractions and keeping its focus on events in Ukraine, putting up little support to help its ally Bashar Assad as his regime collapsed in Syria — despite Russia's important military bases in the country.

In addition, Kyiv is now facing serious uncertainty in the form of Trump's imminent return, with some fearing he could cut aid to the country.

In a recent interview with Time Magazine, the president-elect said he wanted to "reach an agreement" rather than abandon Ukraine, but he added that he strongly disagreed with Biden's decision in November to allow the use of US-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russia, which Kyiv had long coveted.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia," Trump said. "Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse."

Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat

Ukrainians had harbored hope of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets said.

And while Putin's grip on power seems strong, the conflict has exposed some of the largest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries and protests over mobilization.

Russia's government is "authoritarian and it has control over the media, but it's still sensitive to public opinion," Cancian said, adding that it had likely avoided another round of mobilization as it did not want to "stir up domestic opposition," despite needing the manpower.

Washington has also pointed to North Korea's involvement in the war as a sign of the Kremlin's "desperation" and "weakness."

But with Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to the fighting, Russia's continued gains in the east, and Kyiv facing dwindling resources and drooping morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems off the cards for now.

Seth Jones, the president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, previously told BI that as long as Putin is in charge, it would be highly improbable that Russia's forces would retreat entirely. A Russian defeat, however, may threaten Putin's hold on power.

• New satellite images show activity at Russia's Hmeimim Air Base in Syria.
• The images appear to show the movement of military equipment over the past few days.
• Russia's long-held military footprint in Syria has been in question since the Assad regime collapsed.

Newly captured satellite imagery seems to show the Russians moving military equipment out of a strategic airbase in Syria as its long-standing presence in the country remains in limbo.

The images, captured by BlackSky and obtained by Business Insider, show new activity at the Hmeimim Air Base over the past few days and suggest that Russia is scaling down its military footprint in Syria following the shocking collapse of the Assad regime earlier this month.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the satellite imagery identified four Russian Il-76 strategic cargo planes — one of which is being loaded up with equipment — and a Yak-40 regional jet parked on the eastern flight line at Hmeimim on Sunday. Four S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers can be seen on the southern end of the apron.

The analyst also spotted three An-32 transport aircraft parked in the northwest corner of the airbase, a heavy equipment staging area on the western apron, and a disassembled Ka-52 attack helicopter being prepared for transport.

An image captured on Tuesday shows that much of the heavy equipment, including three of the S-400 launchers, is now missing from the base. One of the AN-32s is also gone, while a single AN-124 heavy transport aircraft is present.

The aircraft and equipment spotted in images on Sunday and Tuesday differ slightly from what was seen in satellite imagery last week. The analyst said three Il-76s, three An-32s, one Yak-40, and two S-400 launchers were present at the base on Friday. Two An-124s, one being loaded with cargo, could also be seen there.

The recent developments at Hmeimim appear to highlight a significant uptick in activity at the base compared to a week ago, just two days after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar Assad.

The fall of the regime brought new uncertainty for Russia's military footprint at Hmeimim and Tartus, a nearby naval facility on the Mediterranean Sea that has been emptied of warships.

Although there is evidence of Russia withdrawing some of its assets from Syria, it remains unclear at this time to what extent it may be pulling back and whether it is permanent or temporary. While some assets may be returning to Russia, others may simply be being relocated to nearby Tartus. Regardless, a drawdown of sorts appears to be underway.

Russia long supported Assad in Syria's devastating civil war, but the rebels now have the upper hand; they control the province where Hmeimim and Tartus are located. The Kremlin is said to be engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its bases with the new Syrian leadership.

The European Union's top diplomat said on Monday that some of the bloc's foreign ministers believe Russia's expulsion from Syria should be a condition for the country's new leadership because Moscow uses its bases there to facilitate activities to the south and in Africa.

"This is definitely of the worry of European security as well," Kaja Kallas, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters this week. "We will raise this issue with the leadership when we have the meetings on different levels."

The US and Ukraine have both confirmed the movement of Russian forces out of Syria, though the two governments have provided varying assessments on the scale of the withdrawal.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency said Monday that Russia was pulling troops from locations around Syria and consolidating them at Hmeimim and Tartus, "control over which the Kremlin seeks and hopes to maintain."

The HUR said that Moscow was using transport aircraft, including the Il-76 and An-124, to shuttle troops, weapons, and military equipment from Syria to Russia. Kyiv's aircraft identification is consistent with the planes spotted in satellite imagery of Hmeimim, although Business Insider could not independently confirm the reported activity.

The Kremlin relies heavily on Hmeimim and Tartus to project power across the region. Hmeimim is used to move military forces in and out of Africa, while Tartus is Russia's main naval base overseas and provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Losing access to both these bases, which are strategically valuable, would be a major setback for Moscow.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Two Russian vessels were damaged during a heavy storm on Sunday, causing a massive oil spill.
• The tankers, both over 50 years old, carried nearly 9,000 metric tons of oil products.
• On Monday, the EU sanctioned 52 dark fleet ships.

A massive oil spill involving two Russian tankers is underscoring the dangers of the dark fleet of ships that's been boosting President Vladimir Putin's war chest.

On Sunday, the Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft 239 vessels were damaged during a heavy storm, discharging 3,700 tons of low-grade fuel oil into the Kerch Strait between the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula and Russia.

Both ships are over 50 years old and were carrying nearly 9,000 metric tons of oil products in total, reported TASS state news agency.

One crewmember died, and 12 were rescued from the Volgoneft 212, which split in half. All 14 crew aboard the Volgoneft 239 were rescued.

Greenpeace Ukraine has warned of an "environmental catastrophe" in the Kerch Strait.

While the extent of damage depends on the product involved, the region already experienced "severe damage to the environment" in 2007 when 1,200 to 1,600 tons of oil was spilled," Greenpeace said.

Aging ships are transporting Russian energy

The problem is more than environmental.

The G7 imposed an oil price cap on Russian oil in December 2022, prompting Russia to grow its shadow network of mostly aging ships.

Using that shadow fleet of ships has helped Russia circumvent Western restrictions and allowed it to continue trading its oil at market prices, according to the European Union.

However, because many of those ships are old, they are also more prone to accidents. Should the ships not have adequate insurance, the burden of clean-up and salvage costs could fall on coastal countries.

Last month, 206 out of the 369 vessels that exported Russian crude oil and oil products were shadow tankers, according to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think-tank.

About 30% of the shadow tankers carrying Russian oil were at least 20 years old, according to CREA. Major Western oil companies generally do not use ships above 15 years old.

Europe to step up checks on tanker insurance

The European Union is already cracking down on Russia's dark fleet.

On Monday, the EU sanctioned 52 dark fleet ships. That's in addition to the 27 ships it had previously sanctioned. These vessels will not be able to access EU ports and services.

"These ships have been found to be engaged in high-risk shipping practices when transporting Russian oil or petroleum products, in arms deliveries, grain theft, or supporting the Russian energy sector," the European Commission said in its announcement.

A group of European countries — including Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Sweden — is also planning to increase checks on the insurance coverage of tankers carrying Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Bloomberg's sources said they expect no consequences for ships that are short on their coverage in the immediate term, although the information collected could help with the crafting of such measures in the future.

• Russia's head of chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday when a scooter bomb exploded in Moscow.
• Ukraine was behind the attack, a Ukrainian Security Service source told BI.
• Igor Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia invaded Ukraine.

A high-ranking Russian general responsible for Russia's chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday by a bomb placed in a scooter on a Moscow street.

A source inside Ukraine's Security Service with knowledge of the attack told Business Insider the agency was behind the death of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov.

The Wall Street Journal also reported Ukrainian officials as saying the killing was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine.

Kirillov, the head of Russia's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed by a bomb planted in a scooter parked on a street in Moscow, Russia's investigative committee said in a statement on Telegram on Tuesday.

"According to the investigation, on the morning of December 17, an explosive device was detonated in a scooter parked next to the entrance of a residential building on Ryazansky Prospekt in Moscow," the statement said.

"As a result of the incident, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Kirillov and his assistant were killed," it added.

The committee said it had opened a criminal case and that investigators and forensic experts were working at the scene.

The Russian investigations committee didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

According to the Ukrainian source, the bomb on the scooter was detonated when Kirillov and his assistant were entering a nearby house on Ryazansky Prospekt. BI couldn't independently verify the claim.

"Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target," they said, accusing Kirillov of giving orders to use banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces.

"Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable," they added.

Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Financial Times.

He was sanctioned by the UK in October for the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, including the choking agent chloropicrin.

Kirillov's death follows a string of similar attacks, some of which sources said were the work of Ukraine's Security Service or other agencies.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council and a former Russian president, described Kirillov's killing as a terrorist attack, and offered his condolences to Kirillov's family, per the TASS news agency.

He also said that Ukraine would pay for its actions.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

• FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash over a map it showed of Ukraine.
• The map appeared to show Ukraine without Crimea as part of it.
• A spokesperson for Ukraine's Foreign Ministry demanded a public apology from FIFA.

FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash after showing a map that appeared to omit Crimea from Ukrainian territory.

The map, which was shown during a 2026 World Cup qualifying draw earlier this week, was designed to show countries that cannot be drawn to play against each other for geopolitical reasons, such as Ukraine and Belarus.

However, the graphic appeared to highlight Ukraine but without Crimea as part of it.

In response, Heorhii Tykhyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote on X: "Are you OK, @FIFAcom?"

"By redrawing international borders in yesterday's broadcast, you not only acted against international law, but also supported Russian propaganda, war crimes, and the crime of aggression against Ukraine," he continued, adding that Ukraine expected "a public apology."

He said they had also "fixed" the map for FIFA and shared another version of it with Crimea highlighted.

In a statement to Business Insider, FIFA said it was "aware of an issue, which affected one of the graphics displayed during the draw and addressed the situation with the federation."

"The segment has been removed," it added.

The Ukrainian Association of Football (UAF) said it had written to FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafström and UEFA Secretary General Theodore Theodoridis about the matter.

"We are writing to express our deep concern regarding the infographic map of Europe shown during the TV broadcast of the European Qualifiers draw," the letter reads.

"We emphasize that the version of the map presented by FIFA during the global broadcast to a multi-million audience is unacceptable," it continues. "It appears as an inconsistent stance by FIFA and UEFA on this crucial issue, especially in light of the ongoing destructive invasion initiated by Russia against Ukraine in the 21st century, in the heart of Europe."

Business Insider contacted the UAF for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long vowed to end Russia's occupation of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

The peninsula — the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet — holds great strategic importance for the Kremlin, and it has been a major target for Kyiv since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.

The 2026 World Cup is set to take place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Ukraine is in qualifying group D, where it is set to face off against Iceland, Azerbaijan, and the winners of the France vs. Croatia Nations League quarter-final.

FIFA this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup.

• Undersea cables between Finland-Germany and Lithuania-Sweden were cut, potentially sabotaged.
• The incident is one of a number of similar incidents in recent years, highlighting the vulnerability of these lines.
• NATO is enhancing surveillance and coordination to protect critical underwater infrastructure.

Last month, an underwater data cable between Finland and Germany and another between Lithuania and Sweden were discovered cut within a day of each other. The damage to the cables, which European officials said appeared deliberate, highlights just how vulnerable these critical undersea lines are.

Yi Peng 3, a Chinese-flagged cargo ship that had departed from Russia's Ust-Luga port in the Gulf of Finland three days before and was tracked loitering near the two locations, is suspected in connection with the incident. It is said to have dragged an anchor over 100 miles, damaging the cables.

"No one believes that these cables were accidentally cut," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in November. "We have to assume it is sabotage," he added.

In a joint statement with his Finnish counterpart, Pistorius said the damage comes at a time when "our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors."

As Russia received added scrutiny, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russian involvement in the incident, saying that "it is quite absurd to continue to blame Russia for everything without any reason."

Critical but vulnerable

In recent years, a string of incidents involving damage to underwater infrastructure has occurred, many of them in the same region.

Last year, Newnew Polar Bear, another Chinese cargo ship, damaged a gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland. China's investigation concluded the damage was accidental; however, Estonia and Finland's investigation is still ongoing.

In 2022, a Norwegian underwater data cable was damaged, and there were indications of human involvement in that incident. In 2021, a 2.5-mile-long section of another data cable disappeared from waters north of Norway.

The incident that received the most attention, though, was the sabotage of the Nord Steam gas pipelines between Russia and Germany in September 2022. There have been indications that Ukrainian elements might have been behind the sabotage, but this has not been confirmed.

Underwater infrastructure is increasingly critical to modern life. The vast majority of internet traffic passes through underwater fiber-optics cables, and underwater energy pipelines are common in many regions. But protecting this infrastructure, which can stretch for hundreds or thousands of miles, is difficult.

"There's no way that we can have NATO presence alone all these thousands of kilometers of undersea, offshore infrastructure," then-NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg said in 2023. Yet, NATO can be better at collecting and sharing information and intelligence "and connecting the dots," he added.

Indeed, NATO and the European Union are trying to do that.

In May this year, NATO held its first Critical Undersea Infrastructure Network meeting and launched its Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure to better coordinate the capabilities of its members and increase collaboration between them.

Further, the EU is funding several initiatives to develop uncrewed surface and underwater systems to surveil critical areas and detect threats early.

But there are also legal difficulties to protecting underwater infrastructure, as it usually traverses the territorial waters of several countries and can also pass through international waters.

The usual suspects

Although it can often be difficult to establish a culprit whenever such infrastructure is damaged, officials have pointed out that Russian activity near underwater cables has intensified.

In 2017, the US admiral in charge of NATO's submarine forces said the alliance was "seeing Russian underwater activity in the vicinity of undersea cables that I don't believe we have ever seen."

The war in Ukraine has added another dimension to this matter.

"There are heightened concerns that Russia may target undersea cables and other critical infrastructure in an effort to disrupt Western life, to gain leverage against those nations that are providing security to Ukraine," David Cattler, NATO's intelligence chief, said last year.

Russia has developed a number of underwater capabilities and has a specialized unit, the Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, committed to the task.

GUGI, as the operation is also known, is an elite Russian unit that employs specialized surface and underwater vessels capable of underwater sabotage and surveillance. Yantar, one of GUGI's special-purpose spy vessels, which nominally acts as a survey vessel, has often been spotted near underwater cables.

Furthermore, a joint investigation released in 2023 by the public broadcasters of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland discovered that Russia, over the past decade, employed a fleet of 50 boats — masking as research or commercial vessels — to gather intelligence on allied underwater cables and wind farms in the Nordic region.

"When you look at the evidence of their activities now, the places they are doing surveys, overlaid with this critical undersea infrastructure … you can see that they are at least signaling that they have the intent and the capability to take action in this domain if they choose," Cattler said.

• A series of NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen F-35 and Rafale jets called into action.
• French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian IL-18 aircraft off Estonia's coast on Friday.
• Dutch F-35s intercepted three Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

A series of recent NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen Dutch and French fighter jets called into action to intercept Russian aircraft.

Two French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian Ilyushin Il-18 airliner off the coast of Estonia on Friday, the General Staff of the French Armed Forces said in a post on X.

NATO Air Command said the mission was the Rafale's first scramble since it began an air policing mission based out of Šiauliai, Lithuania.

It comes after Dutch F-35 fighter jets intercepted a number of Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

The Dutch defense ministry said two F-35s stationed in Estonia were scrambled after three Russian planes — an Antonov An-72, a Su-24, and an Ilyushin Il-20 — were identified in the region.

Dutch F-35s have been keeping a watch over NATO airspace on the alliance's eastern flank since the start of December, the ministry said.

It's not the first time such an incident has occurred in recent months.

Norwegian F-35s were called into action in November in response to Russian aircraft "not adhering to international norms" off the coast of Norway, NATO's Air Command said at the time.

Italy's air force also intercepted a Russian Coot-A plane flying over the Baltic Sea on the same day.

The Rafale

The Dassault Rafale is a French twin-jet fighter aircraft that can operate from both an aircraft carrier and a land base.

It entered service with the French Navy in 2004 and with the French Air Force in 2006.

It is used to carry out a variety of missions, including air policing, deep strikes, and reconnaissance, according to the manufacturer.

The F-35

The F-35, which is billed as the "most advanced fighter jet in the world" by manufacturer Lockheed Martin, has faced criticism from Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO said on X in late November that the jet's design "was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people."

"This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes," Musk wrote, adding: "And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed."

Some reports have suggested that Musk may be eyeing the F-35 program, and possibly other fighter jets, for potential spending cuts through his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.

Although he would likely face an uphill battle to do so, as Business Insider previously reported.

• In new satellite imagery, Russia's military appears to be packing up equipment at a key airbase in Syria.
• The images show transport aircraft ready to load cargo at the Hmeimim Air Base on Friday.
• Russia's military footprint in Syria fell into uncertainty after rebel forces ousted Bashar Assad.

Russia appears to be packing up military equipment at one of its bases in Syria, new satellite images show. They are the latest indication that Moscow is scaling down, if not withdrawing, its footprint from the country following the stunning collapse of the Assad regime.

Images captured Friday by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at Russia's Hmeimim Air Base. The front of the planes are lifted, indicating that they are ready to load equipment or cargo.

In another image of the Hmeimim base, a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter is seen being taken apart and likely prepared for transport, according to Maxar. The company said elements of an S-400 air-defense unit are also being prepared for departure from the weapon's previous deployment site near the coastal city of Latakia.

Additional imagery collected Friday shows Russia's warships are still missing from its base in Tartus, a port city south of Hmeimim on the Mediterranean Sea. Several frigates, replenishment oilers, and a submarine could be seen at the facility earlier in the month, but they were all gone by Monday.

Some of the vessels have been spotted several miles off the coast. It's unclear whether the warships will return to Tartus; their presence at sea could be for safety reasons rather than a full evacuation.

The US has not confirmed any major Russian military withdrawal from Syria but has pointed out that some forces are, in fact, departing.

"What we're seeing is a consolidation of assets, including some Russian forces leaving Syria," Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters Wednesday. "What they're doing with their facilities and bases, that's for them to speak to."

Analysts, likewise, have called attention to the latest activity.

"A larger number of Russian transport aircraft can now be seen at Khmeimim," Michael Kofman, a Russia expert and senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a social media post.

"The S-400 battery is packing up for transport. While tactical aviation is still there, RF appears to be consolidating at Khmeimim and Tartus," he said. "In short, a withdrawal is under way."

Even if Russia is moving forces out of its bases in Syria, it may only be a partial military withdrawal and not a complete evacuation.

The new satellite imagery comes a day after Ukraine's military intelligence agency, known as the HUR, said Moscow was evacuating its bases in Syria and has been flying multiple military transport aircraft between Hmeimim and Russia every day.

BI was unable to independently verify Kyiv's assessment.

Russia's military presence in Syria became tenuous last weekend as rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Bashar Assad, the country's longtime dictator. Assad has since fled to Moscow with his family.

Russia supported Assad in Syria's civil war for years, in return securing a foothold in the country, but the rebels now have the upper hand. They control the province where Tartus and Hmeimim are located. The Kremlin is engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its facilities with the new Syrian leadership, but it's unclear if any arrangements are official.

Losing both Tartus and Hmeimim would be a setback for the Kremlin, which relies heavily on the bases to project its power across the region and beyond. Tartus is Russia's main naval base overseas, providing the country with critical access to a warm-water port. Moscow uses Hmeimim to move military forces in and out of Africa. That makes these bases strategically valuable.

War analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, wrote on Thursday that Russia "is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria."

• Russia is dispatching four ships to its bases in Syria, per Ukraine's main intelligence directorate.
• They will evacuate weapons and military equipment from its key base in Tartus, they said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

Russia is sending four ships to its bases in Syria to evacuate weapons and military equipment, according to Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

In a Telegram post on Thursday, the GUR said that Russia was moving its Ivan Gren-class large landing ship and the Ropucha-class tank landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Norwegian Sea to Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Their mission, it said, is to evacuate weapons and equipment.

It also said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships left Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast, and St Petersburg, respectively, and are heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base.

The trips are long voyages, requiring the ships to sail long stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russia was a close ally of Syria's recently-toppled ruler Bashar Assad. It struck a 49-year lease with his government for two bases in Syria — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

However, these bases have come under threat after Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Assad on Sunday and formed a transitional government.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

The TASS state news agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying that Russia established direct contact with HTS in Damascus.

Sources familiar with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday that talks were taking place for Russian forces to stay at the bases and that Russia was nearing a deal with Syria's new leadership.

Images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider on Tuesday showed Russian aircraft still present at the Hmeimim Air Base, but warships no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Videos captured by The Times of London's Middle East correspondent on Friday showed Russian trucks entering the Hmeimim Air Base.

On Thursday, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia's ships may be on the move as a precaution in case it needs more comprehensive evacuations.

They also said that it would probably take weeks for the Russian ships to get to Tartus.

• Ukraine is making videos and dropping leaflets on North Korean troops to get them to surrender.
• North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, per sources.
• "Many see it as a chance to escape the regime," the project's spokesman told Euronews.

Ukraine is trying to persuade North Korean soldiers to surrender rather than fight alongside Russia.

Ukrainian intelligence services have been distributing leaflets via drones and projectiles, and making videos urging North Korean troops to desert, according to Euronews.

Vitality Matvienko, spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" project, told Euronews that "of course, not everyone wants to fight."

"We know very well the living conditions in North Korea," he said. "Therefore, many see it as a chance to escape the regime and go to another country."

Ukraine is carrying out its efforts under "I Want to Live," a service that has facilitated Russian soldiers' surrender. In October 2022, Russia blocked access to its hotline and chatbot, though it is still accessible in the country via VPN.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months, with a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers serving in Russia within a year.

Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project told Business Insider the leaflets state that Kim Il Sung — North Korea's founder — does not want North Korean soldiers to fight for Russian "imperialists."

The leaflets also contain step-by-step instructions on how to surrender, with guarantees and benefits for those prisoners of war, it said.

It declined to disclose other methods being used to convince North Korean troops to surrender.

"I Want to Live" posted a video on its Telegram channel earlier this month showing a North Korean volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces calling on his countrymen to take their chance.

"We will not just welcome you but help you start a new life," he said. "Support, work, and the opportunity to live a decent life are waiting for you here. Even money, so you can start your way with a clean slate."

The text accompanying the video said Ukraine guaranteed all prisoners humane treatment. "Far away from 'Big Brother,' who watches over all the inhabitants of North Korea, it is a sin not to take advantage of this unique opportunity," it said.

In October, Ukraine's military intelligence agency put out a statement with the promise of providing comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korean soldiers who surrendered.

It also published a Korean-language video showcasing its prisoner-of-war camps, as well as the meals served there.

Last month, South Korean intelligence estimated that Russia was paying about $2,000 a month for each soldier.

But Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, told BI that he suspects the money is going directly to North Korea's ruling elite.

"Perhaps only a small amount or even nothing" will go to the soldiers themselves, he said.