• Behrouz Esbati, an Iranian general, partially blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria.
• In a speech in Tehran, Esbati accused Russia of bombing an empty desert instead of hitting Syrian rebels.
• While difficult to verify, his frank remarks are notable since Russia is one of Iran's strongest allies.

A top Iranian general has accused Russia of lying to Tehran by saying its jets were attacking Syrian rebels while they were instead bombing the open desert.

In a rare break from Iran's diplomatic line on Syria, Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati partially blamed Moscow for the fall of Bashar Assad's government during a speech at a mosque in Tehran.

An audio recording of the speech was published on Tuesday by Abdullah Abdi, a journalist in Geneva who reports on Iran.

"We were defeated, and defeated very badly. We took a very big blow, and it's been very difficult," Esbati said of Assad's fall, according to a translation by The New York Times.

In the recording, Esbati, a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Russia told Tehran it was bombing the headquarters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group spearheading Assad's ousting.

But Moscow's forces were instead "targeting deserts," Esbati said.

Esbati further accused Russia of turning off radars when Israel launched strikes on Syria in 2024, allowing Tel Aviv's forces to attack more effectively.

The general also largely blamed internal corruption for Assad's fall, saying bribery was rife among Syria's top-ranking officials and generals.

He added that relations between Damascus and Tehran grew tense over the last year because Assad refused an Iranian request to facilitate attacks on Israel through Syria.

Business Insider couldn't independently verify Esbati's claims. But they represent an exceptionally frank assessment among Iran's top ranks of its position in Syria, where a new political leadership is still coalescing in Assad's absence.

Iran officially held a much milder tone as Assad's government fell, saying at the time that the fate of Syria would be up to its people and that it "will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria."

Assad, a longtime ally of both Iran and Russia, fled Damascus in early December as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces stormed toward the capital from the northwest. International observers believe the rebel advance largely happened as Moscow, a key source of military strength for Assad, found its resources stretched thin by the war in Ukraine.

The Russian defense ministry didn't respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Esbati's remarks came as a former senior aide to Assad told the Saudi government-owned outlet Al Arabiya on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had stalled military assistance for Syria.

Kamel Saqr said that Assad had asked Putin to personally approve airlifting military aid to Syria — and that the Russian leader agreed.

The aid was to be transported via Iranian aircraft, but Saqr said Tehran told Assad it didn't receive any requests from Moscow.

Assad then asked Moscow about this, but "no answer came," Saqr said.

Assad's fall, which neither Moscow nor Tehran stepped up to prevent, has brought deep implications for Russia's forces in the region. Moscow had previously relied on an airbase and a naval base, which it maintained under a deal with Assad, for its operations in Africa and the Mediterranean.

It's unclear whether Russia will eventually be able to continue maintaining those two facilities, but reports show that it's preparing to move much of its equipment out of Syria. On Friday, Ukraine said Moscow was planning to move its assets to Libya.

• A former aide to Bashar Assad discussed the recent collapse of the Syrian government.
• He pointed to a "trick" by Russia's Vladimir Putin in an interview with Saudi media.
• Russia was unwilling to come to Assad's rescue as rebels advanced.

A former aide to Syria's deposed President Bashar Assad described how he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed to the country's collapse.

Speaking to Al Arabiya, a news outlet owned by the government of Saudi Arabia, Kamel Saqr said Putin stalled on a high-stakes effort to broker military help to Assad's forces.

That, he said, left them too weak to repel the rebels who ultimately overthrew Assad in December.

Assad had long relied on support from Russia and also from Iran to maintain power through Syria's long civil war.

Per Saqr's telling, both allies looked the other way as collapse loomed.

Assad was in Moscow as rebels seized control of Syria's second-biggest city, Aleppo, on November 29.

Saqr said in the interview that, during the trip, Assad asked Putin to help transport weapons from Iran via a Russian-occupied base in Syria.

"Bashar al-Assad's request to Putin was for him to personally handle the secure aerial transportation necessary to deliver military aid to support or stop the advance of the Syrian opposition," Saqr said.

His description of behind-the-scenes events could not be verified by Business Insider.

According to Saqr, Putin agreed to the request for arms to be transported using Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria.

"But what happened," he said, "was that the Iranians told Bashar al-Assad, 'we did not receive any signals to proceed with moving Iranian aircraft to the Hmeimim base [or to] fly through Iraqi airspace to land at the base.'"

"The question was relayed to Moscow, but no answer came."

The Al Arabiya interviewer asked whether the failed maneuver was down to a "trick" by Putin, and replied that there was "no other explanation."

The Kremlin at the time would not confirm reports Assad was in Moscow as rebels advanced. Saqr told Al Arabiya that he started to believe something was off after the Kremlin refused to release a joint press statement after the leaders met.

Russia and Iran were Assad's two chief international allies, but as rebels began driving back government forces in a lightning advance, neither stepped up to help.

Analysts say that Russia was too distracted by its invasion of Ukraine to offer significant support. Iran and its ally Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militia, were both badly weakened in their clashes with Israel.

As rebels advanced on the capital, Damascus, Russia flew Assad and his family out of the country, providing them refuge in Moscow.

Saqr, in the interview, said Assad had waited several hours on December 8 at Russia's Hmeimim base for his flight out, ending the Assad family's five decades in power.

"My information suggests that he stayed at the base for several hours until the plane was secured, prepared, and its takeoff and flight to Moscow were ensured," Saqr said.

• A Russian attack submarine that was stationed in Syria has officially left the Mediterranean Sea.
• The departure of the Kilo-class Novorossiysk leaves Russia without any known submarines in the region.
• The uncertain fate of Russia's naval presence in Syria amid other setbacks could spell trouble for its submarine force.

Strategic Russian naval bases have been upended by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, creating headaches for the Kremlin's navy, including its submarine force.

Moscow no longer appears to have any attack submarines in the Mediterranean Sea after NATO forces spotted its last known submarine leaving the region last week.

Portugal's military said that it observed a Russian Kilo-class submarine moving through the country's continental exclusive economic zone near northern Spain on Friday. NATO Maritime Command later identified the vessel as the Novorossiysk.

The Novorossiysk was spotted several weeks earlier at Tartus, a naval base in Syria that Russia had used for years. The future of Moscow's military footprint at the facility — and in the country in general — was, however, thrown into uncertainty after the shocking collapse of the Assad regime last month.

There are indications that Russia is drawing down forces at its bases in Syria. Losing Tartus for good would be a significant blow to Moscow's navy — including its capable submarine force — which relies on the warm-water port to project power across the region and beyond.

Early December satellite imagery showed the Novorossiysk docked in Tartus, but by the middle of the month, it was gone, along with the rest of the Russian warships that had been there. Some of the Russian naval vessels have been spotted in recent weeks loitering off the Syrian coast, but the whereabouts of this submarine were less certain.

Should Syria's new leadership decide Russia can no longer station its forces at Tartus, it would mark another setback for Moscow's navy, which has suffered a string of stunning losses in the nearby Black Sea since the start of the full-scale Ukraine war nearly three years ago.

Ukrainian forces have used missiles and naval drones to damage or destroy dozens of Russian naval vessels, including one of six improved Kilo-class submarines Moscow's Black Sea Fleet operates, during the conflict.

These attacks have forced Moscow to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from its long-held headquarters in Sevastopol, a major city in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula, across the region to the port of Novorossiysk along western Russia's coast. If Russia is unable to move back into Sevastopol, that creates complications.

For Russia, losing the ability to keep submarines at Sevastopol and Tartus is less than ideal.

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, said that the remainder of the Kilo-class vessels are based in St. Petersburg, where there is a large naval facility and dry docks for maintenance.

"The Russians are now having to redeploy their submarine force back up to the north" instead of relying on warm-water ports that "you could get in and out of them year-round," Clark told Business Insider. "St. Petersburg, you can't get in and out of year-round."

Recent developments also seriously undermine Russia's military influence in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Clark said.

The Novorossiysk is a newer improved Kilo sub. Submarines of this class are diesel-electric vessels and formidable long-range strike platforms that can attack ships and land targets, deploy for weeks on end, and stay relatively undetected. They are effectively Russia's most capable non-nuclear subs and can carry Kalibr missiles.

Russia has kept a Kilo-class vessel in the region for years. The boat's departure from the region, though Russia could ultimately opt to move another sub into the area later, may signal a broader decline in Russian naval might in the Mediterranean.

In four years, Russia appears to have gone "from being a pretty big player in the Med — in terms of naval forces — to now being a nonexistent player," Clark said.

Russia's basing challenges could ultimately hinder its ability to project power. The uncertainty with Tartus and nearby Hmeimim Air Base — underscores a broader issue for the Russian military.

Satellite imagery captured on Monday by Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, shows no obvious signs of any major Russian naval vessels at Tartus, as has been the case for weeks. Ukraine's military intelligence agency has said Russia is withdrawing from the base.

Whether Moscow is able to negotiate an arrangement with the new Syrian leadership to stay in the country or is forced to relocate to a new hub in North Africa to sustain its operations remains to be seen.

• Russia is planning to move military gear from its naval base in Syria, Ukrainian intelligence says.
• It comes amid uncertainty around Russia's role in Syria following the fall of Bashar Assad.
• Ukraine said the military equipment was headed for Libya, where Russia has a strong influence.

Russian ships are preparing to transport military equipment from a naval base in Syria to Libya after the fall of Bashar Assad late last year, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Defense Intelligence of Ukraine wrote on Telegram on Friday that two cargo ships, the Sparta and the Sparta II, were headed toward the Syrian port of Tartus, with the first set to arrive on January 5.

It said they will be used to transport military equipment and weapons to Libya.

DI Ukraine also said that three other ships — the Alexander Otrakovsky, an Ivan Gren-class large landing ship, and the tanker Ivan Skobelev — are scheduled to arrive in Tartus in the coming days.

Ukraine did not say how it obtained the information, which Business Insider was unable to independently verify.

The flurry of movement comes around a month after the fall of Bashar Assad, the longtime ruler of Syria who was considered a close Russian ally.

Assad's ousting, following a rapid two-week campaign by rebel groups, was seen as a sign of the weakening of Russia's grip on the region.

Last month, Ukraine said that Russia was sending vessels to evacuate weapons and military equipment from Tartus.

Russia's lease on the Syrian naval base, as well as its air base at Hmeimim, gave it sweeping abilities to conduct military activity across Africa and the Mediterranean.

Its hold on those bases is now unclear, although in a recent interview Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, said, "We don't want Russia to exit Syria in a way that undermines its relationship with our country," Radio Free Europe reported.

In its Telegram post, Ukraine said that Africa Corps troops — Russian mercenaries previously under the control of the now-defunct Wagner Group — were also gathered at Tartus.

It added that a Russian naval brigade commander, Davityan Yuriy Albertovich, was reportedly on board one of the ships.

Russia's Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Libya, where Russian equipment is said to be headed, is a major hub for Russian activities in Africa, according to a July 2024 Atlantic Council report.

"Strategically positioned at the crossroads of Africa and Europe, it provides Russia with a gateway to its operations in Sudan, Chad, Niger, and other Sahel and Central Africa countries, eventually projecting power and influence across these regions," it said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine said it is readying to increase its involvement with Syria, which is under the effective control of rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he planned to re-establish diplomatic relations with the country "after years of Russian interference," adding that "I really hope that post-Assad Syria will respect international law."

He also said he is readying to supply Syria with grain, according to RBC-Ukraine.

• The New Orleans attack suspect carried an ISIS flag and pledged fealty to the group, officials said.
• The group, best known for global mass killings in 2015-2017, has again been gathering strength.
• The group was damaged but not defeated by a US-led campaign.

Back in 2017, the ISIS militant group's reign of terror appeared to be coming to an end.

A US-led coalition ousted its fighters from strongholds in Iraq and Syria, where they had ruled with brutality and inspired a series of harrowing attacks on Western cities.

The loss of its bases and the assassination of many of its leaders badly dented its power, and its prominence faded.

The attack in New Orleans on Wednesday brought the group back into stark prominence.

Fifteen people were killed when the driver of a truck slammed into New Year crowds on Bourbon Street — authorities said the suspect pledged allegiance to ISIS and flew its flag.

Experts and security officials have in recent months issued increasingly urgent warnings of ISIS gathering strength.

ISIS has "remained a continuing threat," said Jessica White, a terrorism analyst at London's Royal United Services Institute, even though it "had to adapt after its territorial defeat."

"They are a diffuse and networked organisation that has alliances and branches that continue to wield influence, cause terror, and further their goals," she told Business Insider on Thursday.

The FBI said it is investigating what ties the suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, may have had with the group. Authorities at first said Jabbar likely did not act alone, though in a press briefing on Thursday the agency said it no longer believes anyone else was involved.

ISIS renews itself

ISIS was little-known in 2015, when it shocked the world by seizing swaths of Syria and Iraq and putting them under a severe form of Islamic law.

The group became known for atrocities, staging theatrical beheadings of hostages, seizing thousands as slaves, and orchestrating waves of terror attacks.

Its adherents cumulatively killed hundreds of people in attacks on Western cities, including Paris and San Bernardino in 2015, Berlin, Brussels, Nice, and Orlando in 2016, and London and Barcelona in 2017.

Attacks in Iraq, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia killed many hundreds more.

A US-led military response, launched under President Barack Obama and continued under President Donald Trump, gradually eroded the group with airstrikes supported by allied militias on the ground. 

It culminated with the assassination of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, by US special forces in 2019.

Trump has since boasted of destroying the group, claiming at last year's Republican National Convention that in his first term "we defeated 100% of ISIS."

Since then, the US has maintained a small military presence in northern Syria meant to monitor and extinguish potential resurgence by the group.

Analysts say the group has seized on instability in Afghanistan, where the Taliban regained power after the 2021 US withdrawal, and ongoing chaos in Syria to quietly rebuild its strength.

The group's Afghan affiliate, ISIS-K, presents a particularly potent threat, wrote Colin Clarke, Director of Policy and Research at The Soufan Group, for Foreign Policy in August.

"It is both pushing its propaganda to a more global audience and threatening attacks farther afield," he wrote.

ISIS-K was linked to the March 2024 attack on a music venue in Moscow where 145 people were killed, as well as an attack on a procession in Kerman, Iran, in January 2024 where 95 were killed.

In August, officials foiled a planned ISIS attack at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria. The CIA's deputy director said extremists planned to kill "a huge number" there. 

Tactics to spread terror 

One of the main challenges for investigators will be to establish whether the New Orleans attacker took direct instruction from ISIS or was acting on his own volition, Sajjan J. Gohel, International Security Director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, told CNN. 

The group mostly does not directly train extremists at its bases to carry out attacks, unlike the terror group Al-Qaida.

Instead, it largely remotely recruits and directs followers to carry out attacks that don't require much training, such as vehicle ramming or knife attacks.

Clarke, the ISIS expert, described this approach in his August article, called it a "virtual entrepreneur" model.

"Operatives in Afghanistan or Pakistan make contact with would-be ISIS-K supporters abroad to try to convince them to carry out attacks in the countries where they reside," wrote Clarke. 

Attacks following that model include the 2016 beheading of a Catholic priest in a church in France, according to reports at the time. 

The group is now less concerned with recruiting members in Syria and Iraq, and more on inciting attacks, said White, the RUSI expert.

"While the focus has shifted away from gathering followers to a centralised physical Caliphate, this has transformed the messaging to encouraging devotees to commit attacks whenever, wherever, and by whatever means they can," she said.

The New Orleans attack had "several strategic and symbolic considerations as potentially textbook ISIS," Gohel said.

Vehicle-rammings have been a feature of many deadly, ISIS-linked attacks.

The group's sophisticated propaganda is another powerful tool, enabling it to exploit grievances and attract supporters anywhere where there is internet access.

In some cases, followers with no direct links to the group have carried out attacks in its name. The 2017 Westminster Bridge attack in London seemed to fit that pattern.

The group's use of the internet, and success in radicalising those with no previous extremist links, make it particularly difficult to tackle.

"None of this is new. They just continue to throw it out every single day," Aaron Zelin, an expert on jihadist groups at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told NBC News of the group's methods. "And from their perspective, the hope is that it sticks with somebody,"

• Turkey offered to rebuild Syria's demolished military.
• It's an opening to grow its influence with its southern neighbor and counter Iran.
• "Turkey will likely try to fill Russia's role," a Middle East analyst told BI.

Turkey offered to help rebuild the Syrian military shattered by the fall of the long-ruling Assad regime and Israeli airstrikes, potentially filling a void left by Russia's diminishing forces.

Limited Turkish arms are inroads to bolstering the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Islamist movement in Syria, but Turkey will likely need financial support to pay for more extensive military rebuilding that could allow it to become the dominant foreign power in Syria, regional experts said.

"Turkey will likely try to fill Russia's role, including in relation to Israel," said Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. "A Turkish contingent in the Golan Heights, or even just a military liaison of some sort, could back up UN missions and serve as a buffer and facilitator between Israeli and Syrian leaders."

"It's exactly the kind of role Turkey would want. It would institutionalize Ankara's role not just in Syria, but in Arab-Israeli peacemaking."

Russia and the former Soviet Union were long the leading suppliers of military hardware to Syria under the rule of recently deposed President Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez, who died in 2000. Much of the former regime's remaining military stockpiles were destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in December.

"While Turkey may play an important role in providing military hardware, it is unlikely to fully become the primary supplier of the new Syrian Army," Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, told Business Insider.

"With Western reluctance to arm HTS's military and Turkey's limited capacity, Syria will likely need to diversify its sources of heavy weaponry, potentially increasing its dependence on Gulf Cooperation Council countries" — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These countries share an interest in countering Iran's influence.

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa recently said it could take up to four years before holding elections. Turkey may have an opportunity to extend its influence in Syria by backing a viable government whose immediate needs are likely to center on guns, vehicles and drones to consolidate internal control.

"Syria is awash in arms, ministries and state agencies are largely staffed by people appointed under Assad's rule, and there's no apparent economic base for any of this," Lund told BI. "So, I would caution that Syria's next government is still pretty much a hypothetical thing."

"The new government will need military support and equipment," Lund said. "The old military, or what was left of it, imploded when Assad's regime collapsed."

Turkey is well-positioned to fulfill the new regime's likely needs. In Libya, in the wake of the Gaddafi regime's 2011 collapse, it equipped the UN-recognized government in Tripoli with Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones and Kipri armored vehicles, replacing the former regime's destroyed arsenal. The TB2 drones played a decisive role in pushing back the militia forces of General Khalifa Haftar in 2020 after they had besieged Tripoli.

Building up a large conventional army to compete with foreign rivals will not likely be a priority for Damascus anytime soon, and a ground-up rebuilding will take years and large expenditures.

"The primary needs of Syria's next government won't be to wage major conventional wars. Rather, they'll need the kind of stuff that helps them overwhelm local rivals, keep order in the chaotic rural periphery, hunt down Islamic State remnants, and patrol the borders," Lund said.

Despite having the second-largest army in NATO and a formidable domestic arms industry, Turkey could still struggle to build a conventional Syrian military from the ground up.

"In so far as that can't already be found in Syria, Turkey seems well placed to provide it," Lund said. "The question, of course, is who would pay for it. Qatar might be willing to step in to fund some purchases."

Turkey could train Syria's new military, host its officers for military studies in Turkey, and eventually hold joint exercises that could pave the way for a deeper alliance, Lund said.

But standing up a military in a devastated country may prove more challenging than fueling an insurgency.

"Turkey will likely pursue defense and security agreements with Syria while carefully navigating its relationships with Arab states to avoid diplomatic isolation," Ozeren said. "However, creating an army is very much different than supporting or creating a proxy force which could risk long-term instability in the region."

"Ultimately, the question remains whether Turkey has the capacity to provide the necessary training and hardware to establish a fully functioning standard army in Syria," Ozeren added. "The experiences in Libya and with the [Syria National Army opposition group] do not provide a definitive answer to this challenge."

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.

• It's been a rough year for Iran and its friends in the Middle East.
• Israel has degraded Tehran's proxy forces and delivered punishing airstrikes against Iran itself.
• And Iran just lost one of its most important allies in the region: the Assad regime.

From Gaza to Beirut, Damascus to Tehran, it's been a rough year for Iran and its allies and proxy forces across the Middle East.

Israel's wars against Hamas and Hezbollah have severely degraded these two Iranian proxies, while its military confrontations with Iran itself have left the country short on critical defenses. Tehran's key ally — Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar Assad — was just ousted by rebel forces.

A senior Biden administration official said earlier this month that Assad's fall can be traced to US support for Israel in its conflicts with Iran and its proxies and Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

"Hamas is on its back; its leaders are dead," the US official told reporters. "Iran is on its back. Hezbollah is on its back. Russia is on its back. It's just abandoned its only ally in the Middle East."

"Now, the Assad regime — Russia and Iran's main ally in the Middle East — has just collapsed," they said.

The Iranian proxies

Hamas' October 7, 2023, massacre, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel, sent shockwaves through the Middle East and triggered an immediate — and devastating — military response.

What began as an aerial bombardment later turned into an Israeli invasion of Gaza. After more than a year, Israel has eliminated Hamas' military leadership, including Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 attacks, in a scorched-earth campaign that local authorities in Gaza say has killed over 45,000 Palestinians and drawn international condemnation.

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said after Sinwar's killing that Israel has "decimated" the military structure of Hamas, although he acknowledged the group is still a threat in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Lebanese Hezbollah started attacking Israel shortly after October 7, and the two longtime enemies regularly exchanged cross-border fire for nearly a year, displacing tens of thousands of people as fighting steadily escalated.

In September, Israel sharply increased the pressure with its audacious pager attacks, followed by a new campaign of strikes that wiped out Hezbollah's senior leadership and weaponry. Israeli forces then invaded Lebanon before a late-November cease-fire ended the fighting, which left thousands of people dead across the country.

Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, said earlier this month that the "Israeli operations in Lebanon have defeated Hezbollah and compelled the group to end its involvement in the October 7 War."

Iran itself

In early April, an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus killed multiple senior Iranian military officials, escalating what had long been a shadow war between Israel and Tehran.

Iran responded later that month by launching over 300 missiles and drones at Israel, but nearly all the projectiles were shot down in what was the first-ever direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil. Israel then struck Iran in retaliation.

In July, Iran accused Israel of executing the daring assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing. Haniyeh was killed at a guesthouse in Tehran — a tremendous security breach and a blow to Iran.

Iran waited months to retaliate over the killing of Haniyeh and other proxy leaders, but on October 1, it launched some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel — the second direct confrontation between the two bitter foes. Officials said a majority of the Iranian missiles were intercepted.

Israel then responded later that month, carrying out widespread airstrikes that nearly wiped out all of Iran's air-defense systems and degraded its ability to produce missiles. An Israeli security official told BI in the aftermath that the strikes were "powerful" and put Tehran at a "disadvantage," as they left the country vulnerable to follow-on military action.

The Assad regime

Iran long supported the Assad regime because it viewed Damascus as a crucial pillar for keeping weapons flowing to Hezbollah and projecting its influence across the region to Lebanon along the Mediterranean Sea.

But earlier this month, Syria's yearslong civil war ended in shocking fashion when rebel forces suddenly swept across the country in a lightning offensive that lasted just days and ended with their capture of Damascus. Assad and his family fled to Moscow.

US officials attributed the sudden collapse of the Assad regime to the fact that its main allies — Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia — were much weaker than in years past and simply couldn't intervene militarily as they had done earlier in the civil war.

President Joe Biden said after the rebels captured Damascus that the military setbacks Iran and Hezbollah have suffered fighting against Israel this year essentially made it "impossible" for them to continue to support the Assad regime.

The Houthis

One Iranian ally that has stood out among the others is the Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen that has spent over a year attacking civilian and military ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Armed with a large, diverse stockpile of missiles and attack drones, the Houthis have launched more than 130 attacks on vessels transiting shipping lanes off the coast of Yemen. They have struck a number of merchant ships, sinking two of them and hijacking one. Four sailors have been killed during the campaign.

The Houthis have said their campaign is in support of Palestinians in Gaza, although US officials often dismiss this claim since the rebels have targeted vessels sailing under many different flags. These attacks have caused a significant decline in activity along a key global trade route, forcing shipping companies to make longer and more costly trips around Africa.

A Western naval coalition, led by the US Navy, has so far been unable to defeat or deter the Houthis. American forces routinely intercept inbound missiles and drones and carry out strikes against the rebels in Yemen.

Though degraded, the Houthis still retain the ability to attack ships. Just this month alone, the rebels have targeted US warships and commercial ships with missiles and drones on multiple occasions. The vessels all emerged unscathed after the attacks, but the incidents underscore the enduring threat that shows no signs of stopping.

A hostage rescue operator in Syria offered a glimmer of holiday hope in the case of a missing U.S. journalist, telling Fox News Digital he believes Austin Tice is alive and is hopeful that he will be found soon. 

While refusing to divulge sensitive details, Grey Bull Rescue’s Bryan Stern asserted that he has intelligence that leads him to believe the 43-year-old Marine veteran and reporter who was kidnapped in Syria in 2012 is alive, or at least was up until recently. 

"I would say 100%, I would bet that he is alive, or at least was as of two weeks ago," Stern told Fox News Digital from his hotel room in Syria. "I would bet that he's being cared for and tended to," he went on. 

"I further submit that, he's findable," he went on. "We don’t recover dead bodies. Not to say that we wouldn’t, but we’re a nonprofit, we wouldn’t be putting resources toward that, freezing to death, missing my fourth Christmas with my family, if I didn’t believe he was alive and findable." 

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Stern has led high-level rescue missions in some of the most dangerous corners of the world, including Ukraine, Russia, Sudan, Israel, Haiti, Lebanon and the U.S. during natural disasters. 

"We have done 12 jailbreaks from Russia," said Stern. "That is 12 more than the CIA."

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad and subsequent takeover of Syria by HTS has offered the Biden administration and Tice’s family a renewed sense of hope that the journalist could be found. 

"He could have died of a stomach bug three years ago. And we just don't know. I don't think that that's the case," said Stern. "I have no reason to believe that that's the case. There's not a single piece of information, circumstantial or otherwise, that indicate anything near that. In fact, everything I have is counter to that."

The Syrian government for more than a decade refused to negotiate the release of Tice, who was abducted while reporting on the uprising against the Assad regime during the early stages of the Syrian civil war, which ultimately ended earlier this month after the Syrian president was ousted and fled to Moscow. 

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The mood in Syria is "cautiously happy" after decades of brutal oppression, according to Stern, and while the new governing force HTS is "not standing in the way" of finding Tice, they’re more preoccupied with learning how to govern than assisting in the search efforts. 

The most likely scenario, according to Stern, is that Tice is being detained in a home in a neighborhood, looked after by Assad-friendly Alawites, the same branch of Islam as the former leader. Many of the country's prisons have now been searched or emptied and he doesn't believe President Vladimir Putin would hold Tice in Russia.

"The relationship between Assad and Putin is significantly overblown. [Assad] has been there over two weeks and they haven't even seen each other," said Stern. 

"The Russians are like we don't need this problem, that is a great way to p--- off soon-to-be-President Trump, I mean who was obsessed with the Austin Tice case years ago." 

Investigators believe Tice escaped years ago but was found in just such a neighborhood in Damascus and thrown back in detainment. 

The State Department’s Rewards for Justice office is offering a $10 million reward for any information leading to the finding of Tice, but Stern said he believes anyone with information is more driven by tribal loyalty than monetary reward. 

"Assad is living the good life in the tower in Moscow. But make no mistake, he still has reach inside of Syria," said Stern. "Half of the new government were Assad guys last week." 

"That tribal nexus plus the fear of Bashar Assad being able to reach out and touch people still in Syria, why would they come forward?" 

Another group working with Grey Bull asserted this week that they believe Tice is alive. 

"We have data that Austin is alive till January 2024, but the president of the U.S. said in August that he is alive, and we are sure that he is alive today," Nizar Zakka, president of Hostage Aid Worldwide, said Tuesday, according to multiple reports.

"We are trying to be as transparent as possible and to share as much information as possible."

Zakka offered little evidence to back up its statements made from a press conference in Damascus, though he reportedly used an image to demonstrate the locations where Tice was held from November 2017 to February 2024.

U.S. Hostage Aid Worldwide has engaged with Tice’s family and U.S. authorities in the hunt for Tice, and the Biden administration has echoed a message of hope that Tice is alive, despite months of little word about his whereabouts. 

• A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea, per Russia's foreign ministry.
• The Ursa Major ship went down after an explosion in the engine room, the ministry said.
• It comes after Ukraine said Moscow had sent four ships to Russian military bases in Syria.

A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion in its engine room, Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

Fourteen crew members were rescued, but two were missing, the ministry's situation and crisis unit said in a Telegram post.

The ministry said the vessel, the Ursa Major, was owned by SK-YUG LLC, a Russian shipping company also known as SC South that has been sanctioned by the US.

Spain's Maritime Rescue agency told Business Insider that it had received a distress alert call from the Ursa Major last night.

It said the ship was 57 nautical miles off the coast of Almeria in southern Spain in bad weather conditions. This prompted the maritime rescue centers of Almeria, Cartagena, and Madrid to coordinate a rescue effort, it added.

The 14 people rescued were transferred to the Spanish port city of Cartagena, the agency said, adding that another Russian ship later arrived in the area and took over the rescue operations.

Ship tracking data said the 466-foot Ursa Major, built in 2009, last departed from St. Petersburg on December 11.

It comes after Ukraine's intelligence directorate reported on Monday that a Russian cargo ship called Sparta had broken down near Portugal after the engine failed.

The GUR said the ship had been sent to evacuate Russian weapons and equipment from Syria.

The crew was able to fix the vessel, and it continued on through the Strait of Gibraltar, the GUR said.

It remains unclear whether the Sparta and the Ursa Major are the same ship. Maritime tracking data shows that the Ursa Major was previously named Sparta III.

Moscow has operated two military facilities in Syria, the Hmeimin airbase and the Tartus naval base. Both have been crucial for projecting Russia's influence across the Middle East and Africa.

The fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad earlier this month has called the future of the bases into question.

Ukraine's GUR said earlier this month that Russia had deployed four ships to help evacuate equipment in Syria, including ships named the Sparta and Sparta II.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

• Russia sent a ship to evacuate soldiers from its bases in Syria, per Ukrainian intelligence.
• But it broke down en route in the open sea near Portugal, Ukraine said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

A ship sent to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria broke down while in the open sea off Portugal, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

In a Telegram post on Monday, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate said that the Sparta cargo ship's engine failed and that the crew was trying to fix the problem while the ship was drifting in the high seas.

Since the fall of Bashar Assad, Syria's longtime ruler, earlier this month, the fate of Russia's two military bases in the country — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — has been under threat.

Russia struck a 49-year lease with Assad's government for the bases, which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

But Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, overthrew Assad earlier this month, after a rapid two-week campaign.

Last week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there were "no final decisions" about Russia's bases in Syria but that Moscow is in contact with "representatives of the forces that currently control the situation" in the country.

Earlier this month, Ukraine said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships had left Russia and were heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

The journeys required the ships to sail along stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russian state media said earlier this month that Syrian rebel forces now controlled Latakia province, where the Russian bases are located.

Images taken in mid-December by Maxar Technologies showed Russian aircraft still present at the base in Hmeimim, but warships no longer stationed at the nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Last week, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia was probably taking this "tentative" stance and removing some assets in case HTS decided to deny Russia a sustained military presence in Syria.

Obeida Arnaout, the spokesman for Syria's new transitional government, told the Associated Press last week that Russia should reconsider its presence and interests in Syria.

"Their interests were linked to the criminal Assad regime," he said.

"They can reconsider and take the initiatives to reach out to the new administration to show that they have no animosity with the Syrian people, and that the era of Assad regime is finally over," he added.

The Biden administration has lifted a $10 million bounty on the head of Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the group that overthrew Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

In exchange, al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, agreed to a U.S. demand not to allow terrorism groups in Syria to threaten the U.S. or Syria’s neighbors. 

"We had a good, thoroughgoing discussion on a range of regional issues," Barbara Leaf, the U.S.’s top envoy to the Middle East, told reporters of her Friday meeting with al-Sharaa. 

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) drove Assad out of Damascus earlier this month. While other rebel factions remain throughout the country, HTS has amassed control over much of Syria. 

HTS was founded as an offshoot of al Qaeda but broke away from the group in 2016. It evolved from the Nusrah Front, which was designated as a terrorist group in 2012, and in 2018 the U.S. added HTS’ terrorism designation. 

FALL OF ASSAD, RISE OF TRUMP: WHY 2024 WAS A VERY BAD YEAR FOR IRAN

"It was a policy decision… aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," Leaf explained. 

"So if I’m sitting with the HTS leader and having a lengthy detailed discussion about the interests of the US, interests of Syria, maybe interests of the region, it's suffice to say a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy’s head."

The group has been trying to shake its extremist reputation and the designation, with al-Sharaa claiming he does not want Syria to become the next Afghanistan and he believes in education for women.

"We've had universities in Idlib for more than eight years," Sharaa told BBC, referring to Syria's northwestern province that HTS has held since 2011. 

"I think the percentage of women in universities is more than 60%." 

"He came across as pragmatic," Leaf said. "It was a good first meeting. We will judge by deeds, not just by words."

U.S. officials have visited Syria to push for a pragmatic government and to find information on the whereabouts of detained U.S. journalist Austin Tice. 

TENSIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND TURKEY ESCALATE OVER SYRIA: 'IT’S TIME TO PAY ATTENTION'

The U.S. has had a mixed relationship with HTS due to its militant Islamist roots. 

Al-Sharaa has said HTS is not a terrorist group because it does not target civilians or civilian areas, and they consider themselves to be the victims of the crime of Assad's regime. 

The U.S. has launched an aggressive campaign of airstrikes in northeastern Syria to take out ISIS militants, fearing a resurgence amid the upheaval in Syria which could lead to the release of more than 8,000 IS prisoners, "a significant security concern," according to the Pentagon.

The Pentagon revealed on Thursday that the U.S. doubled the number of its forces from 900 to roughly 2,000 to fight IS before Assad’s fall. 

The fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was the crescendo of a remarkably bad year for the Iranian regime. 

The Islamic Republic suffered major blows in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, diminishing the power of its so-called Axis of Resistance. Its currency officially became the lowest valued in the world and when Israel decimated its proxy forces, the U.S. elected a president whom Iran so despises that it spent years trying to assassinate him. 

Here’s a look back at blows suffered by Ayatollah Ali Khameini and his regime over the past year: 

In April, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria, prompting Iran to strike back with more than 300 drones and missiles aimed into Israel. But Israel worked with the U.S., Jordan and Saudi Arabia to shoot down nearly every missile and drone. 

The late Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash while visiting a remote area. Iran has blamed the crash on dense fog. Raisi was a protégé and potential successor of Iran’s supreme leader, Khameini. 

While Iran inaugurated a new president this summer, Israel infiltrated to take out Hamas commander Ismail Haniyeh while he was visiting Tehran for the inauguration. While Haniyeh was staying in a VIP government guest house, Israel detonated a remote-controlled bomb. 

TRUMP TANGLES WITH REPORTER ON IRAN PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE: 'IS THAT A SERIOUS QUESTION?'

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took out Hamas head Yahya Sinwar after encountering him on a routine patrol in the Gaza city of Rafah. Sinwar was the mastermind behind the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel and was one of the most wanted men of the war. 

Hamas has lost thousands of fighters and much of its leadership ranks to Israel’s attacks and is nowhere near the threatening force on Israel’s borders Iran hoped it would be. 

Iran’s currency tanked to an all-time low upon news of the Trump election, and the expectation that he might bring back a "maximum pressure" policy. 

The Iranian rial is down 46% this year, making it officially the least-valuable currency in the world.

Iran has long vowed revenge for Trump approving the 2019 killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani – and U.S. intelligence revealed Tehran plots to kill the president-elect. 

After the Trump administration pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, it imposed harsh sanctions on the regime to stop its funding of proxies abroad, banning U.S. citizens from trading with Iran or handling Iranian money. 

It also punished entities in other countries that did business with Iran, by cutting them off from the dollar. 

TENSIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND TURKEY ESCALATE OVER SYRIA: 'IT’S TIME TO PAY ATTENTION'

President Joe Biden often waived enforcement of such sanctions, keen to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons and fearful of driving up global oil prices. 

Iran gained access to more than $10 billion through a State Department sanctions waiver that allowed Iraq to continue buying energy from Iran, which the Biden administration argues is necessary to keep lights on in Baghdad.  

In the fall, Israel reoriented much of its efforts toward pummeling Hezbollah after a series of cross-border attacks from the Lebanese militant group. Israel targeted Hezbollah’s leadership and detonated hundreds of pagers the group had been using to communicate. At the end of November, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire where it and Israel must both end their armed presences in southern Lebanon. 

Both sides have claimed the other has broken the fragile truce, but it has ostensibly held for weeks.  

Syrian rebels sent Iran's Quds forces, an extension of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, running as they captured Damascus and pushed out President Bashar al-Assad. Iran's forces had been in Syria propping up Assad since civil war broke out in 2011, but had been diminished since the outbreak of war elsewhere in the Middle East. 

Syria's new government is set to be run by Sunni Muslims, hostile to Iran's Shiite government. And Iran lost a key supply line through Syria it had used to arm Hezbollah in its fight against Israel. 

• The US plans to remove a $10 million bounty on HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
• It follows a meeting between US diplomats and the Syrian rebel leader earlier this week.
• Jolani has worked to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West.

The US is set to remove a $10 million bounty on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the opposition group that spearheaded an offensive against Bashar Assad's Syrian government forces.

Barbara Leaf, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, made the announcement in an online briefing on Friday while discussing a diplomatic trip to Damascus where US representatives met with Jolani.

Leaf said the US delegation "welcomed positive messages" from the leader — who now goes by his birthname Ahmed al-Sharaa — and that he assured them that terrorist groups would not be allowed to pose a threat in Syria.

"And so based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years," she said.

Pressed for more information on why the US had decided to lift the bounty, Leaf said it was a "policy decision" that "aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," adding that it would be "a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy's head" while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.

HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations, traces its origins to Al Qaeda.

Jolani cut his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 to form a new group, which became HTS the following year.

He has worked for years to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West and has called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."

While stressing that the US would "judge by deeds" rather than words, Leaf said Jolani appeared "pragmatic" and noted that he had previously issued "moderate statements" on issues such as women's rights and the protection of equal rights for all communities.

The US delegation, which included Roger Carstens, the special envoy for hostage affairs, also used the Damascus trip to explore leads on the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.

Carstens said that they had had "a lot of information coming in" but that it remained unclear whether Tice was alive. "The bottom line is the information that we have right now doesn't confirm either in one way or the other."

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces had conducted an airstrike that killed ISIS leader Abu Yusif in eastern Syria.

One other ISIS operative was also killed in the strike that occurred on Thursday, the agency said in a release on Friday morning.

"As stated before, the United States — working with allies and partners in the region — will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute," CENTCOM Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla said. "ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria."

"We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria," he said.

US GROUP LOOKS FOR KIDNAPPED AMERICANS IN SYRIA AFTER FALL OF ASSAD REGIME

The agency said they carried out the targeted airstrike in the eastern province of Deir ez Zor in Syria, noting that it's part of their ongoing commitment to "disrupt and degrade efforts" by terrorists.

ISRAEL'S UN AMBASSADOR INSISTS NATION IS 'NOT GETTING INVOLVED' IN SYRIAN REGIME CHANGE

They said the area was previously controlled by the Syrian regime and Russian forces before the recent fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

Al-Assad fled to Russia earlier this month and ended a nearly 14-year struggle to maintain power in his country.

Attacks by the Turkish military on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have increased since the Syrian president fled to Russia on Dec. 8.

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Ryder said that in light of the instability in the region, as well as al-Assad's departure, there are 2,000 U.S. troops deployed in Syria.

Fox News Digital's Greg Wehner contributed to this report.

• New satellite images show activity at Russia's Hmeimim Air Base in Syria.
• The images appear to show the movement of military equipment over the past few days.
• Russia's long-held military footprint in Syria has been in question since the Assad regime collapsed.

Newly captured satellite imagery seems to show the Russians moving military equipment out of a strategic airbase in Syria as its long-standing presence in the country remains in limbo.

The images, captured by BlackSky and obtained by Business Insider, show new activity at the Hmeimim Air Base over the past few days and suggest that Russia is scaling down its military footprint in Syria following the shocking collapse of the Assad regime earlier this month.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the satellite imagery identified four Russian Il-76 strategic cargo planes — one of which is being loaded up with equipment — and a Yak-40 regional jet parked on the eastern flight line at Hmeimim on Sunday. Four S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers can be seen on the southern end of the apron.

The analyst also spotted three An-32 transport aircraft parked in the northwest corner of the airbase, a heavy equipment staging area on the western apron, and a disassembled Ka-52 attack helicopter being prepared for transport.

An image captured on Tuesday shows that much of the heavy equipment, including three of the S-400 launchers, is now missing from the base. One of the AN-32s is also gone, while a single AN-124 heavy transport aircraft is present.

The aircraft and equipment spotted in images on Sunday and Tuesday differ slightly from what was seen in satellite imagery last week. The analyst said three Il-76s, three An-32s, one Yak-40, and two S-400 launchers were present at the base on Friday. Two An-124s, one being loaded with cargo, could also be seen there.

The recent developments at Hmeimim appear to highlight a significant uptick in activity at the base compared to a week ago, just two days after rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Syria's longtime dictator, Bashar Assad.

The fall of the regime brought new uncertainty for Russia's military footprint at Hmeimim and Tartus, a nearby naval facility on the Mediterranean Sea that has been emptied of warships.

Although there is evidence of Russia withdrawing some of its assets from Syria, it remains unclear at this time to what extent it may be pulling back and whether it is permanent or temporary. While some assets may be returning to Russia, others may simply be being relocated to nearby Tartus. Regardless, a drawdown of sorts appears to be underway.

Russia long supported Assad in Syria's devastating civil war, but the rebels now have the upper hand; they control the province where Hmeimim and Tartus are located. The Kremlin is said to be engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its bases with the new Syrian leadership.

The European Union's top diplomat said on Monday that some of the bloc's foreign ministers believe Russia's expulsion from Syria should be a condition for the country's new leadership because Moscow uses its bases there to facilitate activities to the south and in Africa.

"This is definitely of the worry of European security as well," Kaja Kallas, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters this week. "We will raise this issue with the leadership when we have the meetings on different levels."

The US and Ukraine have both confirmed the movement of Russian forces out of Syria, though the two governments have provided varying assessments on the scale of the withdrawal.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency said Monday that Russia was pulling troops from locations around Syria and consolidating them at Hmeimim and Tartus, "control over which the Kremlin seeks and hopes to maintain."

The HUR said that Moscow was using transport aircraft, including the Il-76 and An-124, to shuttle troops, weapons, and military equipment from Syria to Russia. Kyiv's aircraft identification is consistent with the planes spotted in satellite imagery of Hmeimim, although Business Insider could not independently confirm the reported activity.

The Kremlin relies heavily on Hmeimim and Tartus to project power across the region. Hmeimim is used to move military forces in and out of Africa, while Tartus is Russia's main naval base overseas and provides the country with crucial access to a warm-water port. Losing access to both these bases, which are strategically valuable, would be a major setback for Moscow.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

Hezbollah lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, the group’s chief admitted Sunday. 

It was the first public acknowledgment of how upheaval in Syria had hurt the Iranian proxy, which had propped up Assad and is now fighting a war in Lebanon with Israel. Weapons to counter the Israeli campaign flowed from Iran through Syria and into Lebanon for Hezbollah. 

"Yes, Hezbollah lost in this phase its military supply line through Syria, but this loss is merely a detail in the overall of the resistance," said Naim Qassem in a televised address.

"The supply line might come back normally with the new regime, and we can always look for other ways, the resistance is flexible and can adapt," he added.

Assad’s ousting jeopardized Syria’s close ties to Iran. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the overthrow of Assad, had lamented that Syria had become a "playground for Iran." Hezbollah had fought off the rebel groups on Assad’s behalf. 

TURKEY SEEKS TO PURGE PRO-US KURDISH FORCE THAT HELPED DEFEAT ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA

As it became clear Assad’s grip on power was coming undone, Hezbollah and Iran’s military forces made their exit from Syria. 

Qassem took over as Hezbollah’s secretary general in October after its leader for three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli airstrikes south of Beirut. Hezbollah and Iran had long intervened on behalf of Assad in Syria’s 13-year civil war, but depleted by war with Israel, refused to come to his defense during the swift takeover of Damascus. 

Israel has also used the chaos of Assad’s fall to destroy the Syrian army’s strategic and chemical weapons in more than 350 airstrikes across the country. And it has moved into the buffer zone that separates it from Syria – the first time the Golan buffer zone has seen Israeli forces since 1973. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is not interested in meddling in Syria’s domestic politics but is looking to protect Israel’s borders. "We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground," he said Sunday, adding Israel would continue to strike "as necessary, in every arena and at all times" to prevent the rebuilding of Hezbollah. 

SYRIAN DICTATOR BASHAR ASSAD FLEES INTO EXILE AS ISLAMIST REBELS CONQUER COUNTRY 

HTS, a former al Qaeda affiliate, has sought to portray itself as a moderating force in Syria, and the U.S. has been in direct contact with the leading rebel group. But Israel is leery of the group’s long-term intentions. 

"The immediate risks to the country have not disappeared, and the latest developments in Syria are increasing the intensity of the threat – despite the moderate appearance rebel leaders are pretending to portray," Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday.

Hezbollah kicked up its cross-border attacks on Israel after Oct. 7, 2023, in support of Hamas, another Iranian proxy. Since late November, the cease-fire has mostly held, despite some Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah operatives. 

Qassem defended his decision to stick to the cease-fire, saying it did not mean the end of Hezbollah's "resistance," but was necessary to "stop the aggression" of Israel in Lebanon. 

• Israel invoked a WWII precedent in trying to justify its pre-emptive strikes in Syria.
• During WWII, the Royal Navy attacked the fleet of its former ally to keep it from Nazi control.
• Both operations were borne in atmospheres of fear and crisis.

When Israel sank six Syrian warships at the port of Latakia this week amid larger attacks on the military remnants of the ousted Assad regime, Israel's leader invoked a precedent from World War II.

"This is similar to what the British Air Force did when it bombed the fleet of the Vichy regime, which was cooperating with the Nazis, so that it would not fall into the Nazis' hands," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Though Netanyahu's history was faulty — it was the Royal Navy rather than the RAF that struck the French fleet — his analogy was revealing. The attack on the port of Mers-el-Kebir on July 3, 1940, has gone down as either a courageous decision that saved Britain — or a treacherous and needless backstab of an ally.

At the least, it is one of Britain's most controversial decisions of the Second World War. Like Israel today, the British acted amid an atmosphere of crisis, haste and uncertainty. The Israeli goal is to keep the now-deposed Syrian government's huge arsenal — which includes chemical weapons and ballistic missiles — from falling into the hands of rebel groups, which are dominated by Islamic militants. For Britain, the goal was to keep Adolf Hitler's hands off the French fleet, the fourth-largest navy in the world in 1940.

In that chaotic summer of 1940, the situation looked grim. The German blitzkrieg had just conquered France and Western Europe, while the cream of the British Army had barely been evacuated — minus their equipment — from Dunkirk. If the Germans could launch an amphibious assault across the English Channel, the British Army was in no condition to repel them.

However, Operation Sealion — the Nazi German plan to invade Britain — had its own problems. The Kriegsmarine — the German Navy — was a fraction of the size of the Royal Navy, and thus too small to escort vulnerable troop transports. But Britain's Prime Minister Winston Churchill had to contemplate a situation he had never expected: a combined German-French battlefleet.

Technically, France had only agreed to an armistice — a permanent cease-fire — with Germany rather than surrender. France would be divided between German-occupied northern zone, and a nominally independent rump state of Vichy comprising southern France and the colonies of the French Empire. Vichy France would be allowed a meager army, and the French Navy would be confined to its home ports.

The British didn't trust French promises that its ships would be scuttled if the Germans tried to seize them. Why had France signed a separate peace with Germany after earlier pledging not to? Why didn't the French government choose to go into exile, and continue the war from its North African colonies as the British urged? London was well aware that the right-wing Vichy government — under Field Marshal Philippe Pétain, hero of the First World War — had more affection for the Third Reich than it did for Britain. With Germany master of Europe, Pétain sneered that Britain would soon "have its neck wrung like a chicken."

After Vichy rebuffed pleas to send the fleet to British ports, Churchill and his ministers decided the risk was too great. In late June 1940, the Royal Navy received orders for Operation Catapult. A task force — including the aircraft carrier Ark Royal and three battleships and battlecruisers — would be dispatched to the French naval base at Mers-el-Kebir, near the Algerian port of Oran. A powerful French squadron of four battleships and six destroyers were docked there, including the new battleships Dunkerque and Strasbourg.

The French were to be given six hours to respond to an ultimatum: sail their ships to British ports and fight the Germans, sail them to French Caribbean ports and sit out the war, demilitarize their ships at Mers-el-Kebir, or scuttle their vessels. When the local French commander tried to delay while summoning reinforcements, the British opened fire.

The ensuing battle was not the Royal Navy's most glorious. Caught in every admiral's nightmare — unprepared ships anchored in port — the French were simply smothered by British gunfire. The battleship Bretagne and two destroyers were sunk, two other battleships damaged, and 1,297 French sailors perished. The British suffered two dead.

This was no repeat of the Battle of Trafalgar, when the Royal Navy smashed a Franco-Spanish fleet off Spain in 1805. Most ships at Mers-el-Kebir were damaged rather than sunk, and the French fleet quickly relocated its scattered vessels to the heavily defended French port at Toulon (where they were scuttled in November 1942 when German troops occupied Vichy). Though Vichy didn't declare war on Britain — and only retaliated with a few minor attacks on British bases — it confirmed old French prejudices about British treachery and "perfidious Albion."

Britain's attack on Mers-el-Kebir was political as much as military. In the summer of 1940, many people — including some in the United States — believed that the British would be conquered or compelled to make peace with a victorious Germany. Churchill argued that Britain had to show its resolve to keep on fighting, not least if it hoped to persuade America to send tanks, ships and war materials via a Lend-Lease deal. Attacking a former ally may have been a demonstration of British resolve.

Israel's situation does not resemble that of Britain in 1940. Syria has never been an ally of Israel. The two nations have had an armistice since 1949, punctuated by multiple wars and clashes over the years. Britain acted out of a sense of weakness, while Israel is confident enough of its strength to hit targets in Syria.

Yet by citing Mers-el-Kebir as a precedent, Netanyahu proved a golden rule of international relations that applied in 1940 and still applies today: Nations always act in their own interests. Faced with a choice between respecting a former ally and defending Britain from invasion, Churchill chose the latter. Netanyahu didn't hesitate to do the same.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

• Israel launched widespread strikes on Syria to wipe out the remnants of the Assad regime's military.
• The strikes targeted Syrian weapon stockpiles after a rebel offensive ousted President Bashar Assad.
• Israeli warplanes and missile ships destroyed Syrian aircraft, naval ships, and weapon depots.

The Israel Defense Forces launched widespread strikes across Syria over the past two days to wipe out what remained of the Assad regime's military arsenal.

The Israeli Air Force carried out about 480 strikes targeting most of the country's strategic weapon stockpiles left behind after rebels forced Syrian leader Bashar Assad to flee the country.

About 350 of the strikes were crewed aircraft targeting Syrian military assets, including aircraft, ammunition depots, storage facilities, and missile and radar systems. The Israeli Navy also destroyed several military vessels docked at two Syrian naval ports. The Israeli army seized strategic positions in the Golan Heights abandoned by Syrian troops.

Israeli officials said the extensive strikes on Syria were intended to prevent the Assad government's military infrastructure and weapons from being used by extremists and potential foes. Israel is exploiting the Assad regime's fall to enhance its security in the long term as it uses blistering force to cripple Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The fall of Assad

After a decadeslong dictatorship, rebel forces seized control of the Syrian capital of Damascus over the weekend, forcing Assad to relinquish power and flee the country.

"We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," Hassan Abdul-Ghani, commander of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, wrote in a post on social media. "To the displaced people around the world, free Syria awaits you."

Former Syrian prime minister Ghazi al-Jalali remained in the country after the collapse of the Assad regime, saying the government is willing to cooperate and support "any leadership chosen by the Syrian people."

Creating a 'sterile defense zone'

While Israel supported ousting Assad, a staunch ally of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the situation in Syria is still "fraught with significant dangers" from the extremists now governing the country.

In the days after the dayslong rebel offensive ousted the Syrian dictator, Israel launched hundreds of strikes targeting Syrian military assets over 48 hours to prevent them "from falling into the hands of terrorist elements." HTS publicly split with the Al Qaeda affiliate from which it formed, but US officials believe it may still have links to Al Qaeda leaders.

"We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security," Netanyahu said.

"I authorized the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists," he said, adding that Israel "would like to form relations with the new regime in Syria."

The IDF said the strikes were part of a larger-scale mission known as Operation Bashan Arrow, intended to create a "sterile defense zone" by neutralizing potential threats from the neighboring country.

Sinking Syrian warships

Israeli forces attacked key Syrian naval facilities in the port cities of Al-Bayda and Latakia late Tuesday, where more than a dozen Syrian naval vessels were docked.

Photos of the decimated port showed half-submerged Syrian warships. Some of the damaged vessels were Osa-class missile boats, Soviet-era vessels whose 30mm turrets and mounted missile launchers could be seen in the wreckage.

The Syrian navy, the smallest branch of the country's armed forces, operated over a dozen of the high-speed — albeit outdated — vessels developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s.

Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz said Israeli Navy missile ships "destroyed Syria's navy overnight and with great success." It's not clear how many Syrian vessels were destroyed by Israeli warships in the overnight attack.

Satellite images of Latakia, a former stronghold of Assad, showed the charred wreckage of the naval ships. The IDF wrote in a post on X that "dozens of sea-to-sea missiles" with "significant explosive payloads" were also destroyed.

Destroying Syrian military aircraft

The IAF carried out an airstrike on the Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, once a key stronghold of the Assad regime's air force.

At least three major Syrian army air bases were attacked by Israeli warplanes, damaging dozens of helicopters and fighter jets, The Times of Israel reported. Locals living near the bases said they heard several explosions after the Israeli strikes appeared to ignite the ammunition stored there, the Associated Press reported.

Dismantling Syrian military infrastructure

In addition to decimating Syria's aerial and naval fleet, the IDF said it carried out strikes on 130 military assets, such as firing positions, antiaircraft batteries, missile and radar systems, and weapons production sites.

Crippling Syria's chemical weapons infrastructure

Israeli forces also destroyed the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus, a key facility thought to be testing and operating the country's covert chemical and biological weapons programs under the Assad regime.

The Barzeh facility was previously bombarded in 2018 by US, UK, and French forces in response to a poison sarin gas attack in Douma, Syria. The US found Assad's government responsible for the April 2018 chemical warfare attack that killed at least 40 people and injured over 100.

However, the head of the center's polymers department told Reuters at the time that the facility, now reduced to rubble, was used to research medicinal components that couldn't be imported, such as anti-venom and cancer treatments.

'Changing the face of the Middle East'

The fall of the Syrian regime weakens Iran's regional influence and could pose logistical and strategic challenges to Iran's regional proxies like the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran," Netanyahu said during a Monday press conference. "The axis has not yet disappeared, but as I promised — we are changing the face of the Middle East."

Despite the widespread strikes across Syria, Israeli military officials said the country's armed forces were operating beyond the Israeli-occupied demilitarized buffer zone in Golan Heights but not toward the Syrian capital.

"IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said at a briefing. "We are not involved in what's happening in Syria internally, we are not a side in this conflict, and we do not have any interest other than protecting our borders and the security of our citizens."

Katz, Israel's defense minister, said the country was advancing beyond Golan Heights to impose a "security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures" in southern Syria.

"With regard to what will be in the future, I'm not a prophet," Katz said. "It is important right now to take all necessary steps in the context of the security of Israel."

Countries in Europe are slamming the brakes on asylum cases filed by Syrian migrants in the wake of the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, but it is not yet clear whether the U.S. will take similar action.

The U.K. and Norway, along with E.U. countries of Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Finland, Ireland and Sweden, have suspended applications from Syrians after the fall of the Assad regime.

While it does not necessarily mean those people will be returned to Syria, it puts those applications in limbo in a continent that saw a massive surge of Syrian migration during the 2015 European migration crisis.

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The European Union has also said that conditions are not currently in place for the safe return of nationals to Syria.

While Europe has seen a considerably more sizeable influx of migrants from Syria than the U.S., it is not clear how those cases in the U.S. will change, if at all, given the changing political dynamics in the Middle Eastern country.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services handle asylum cases, and asylum officers are instructed to consider changes in circumstances when considering those cases. So, if an applicant’s country becomes more stable, then the consideration of that case changes dynamically. Therefore, if Syria stabilizes, it may make it harder for Syrians to receive a positive ruling on their cases.

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But so far, there have been no pauses of Syrian asylum cases announced by the Biden administration. The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the matter.

One factor that could change in the next year is Temporary Protected Status, which grants deportation protection and work permits for nationals of countries deemed unsafe. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas extended and redesignated Syria for TPS in January, and that lasts until September 2025.

Should the Trump administration choose not to extend or redesignate Syria for TPS, it would require those who are no longer protected from deportation and who do not have another legal status to leave the U.S. or face deportation.

However, the number of Syrians protected under TPS is relatively few, compared to other nationalities and the situation in Europe. DHS estimated that around 8,000 Syrians were eligible for TPS in January.

The Center for Immigration Studies cited statistics showing that the number of Syrians granted asylum between 2011 and 2023 was just over 7,000. Meanwhile, data obtained by Fox News Digital this week shows that there are 741 Syrians with deportation orders on Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) non-detained docket. In Europe, around 183,000 Syrians applied for asylum in 2023, according to the Associated Press.

The U.N. refugee agency has called for "patience and vigilance" for Syrian migrants, arguing that much will depend on whether Syria's new government is respectful of law and order.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.