The Biden administration has renewed a controversial sanctions waiver that will allow Iran access to some $10 billion in payments from Iraq – an action that came just two days after President-elect Trump emerged victorious on Election Day.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken again extended the waiver for humanitarian trade, which permits Iran to access accounts in Iraq and Oman. However, Republican critics have said that allowing the Iranian regime access to these funds frees up money Iran can use to support terrorism in the Middle East or advance its nuclear program.
"On November 7th, the department did renew Iraq's electricity waiver for the 23rd time since 2018. It was done so for an additional 120 days," State Department spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed last week.
"We remain committed to reducing Iran's malign influence in the region. Our viewpoint is that a stable, sovereign and secure Iraq is critical to these efforts," he added, pointing out that this sanctions waiver began in 2018 during the first Trump administration.
Congress has passed several sanctions targeting Iran that give the president authority to temporarily suspend, or "waive" the sanctions if the president determines doing so is in the interests of U.S. national security.
The waiver is set to expire after Trump takes office in January. It is unclear whether the Trump administration would again extend the sanctions relief. The Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, argued Tuesday that the sanctions waiver allows Iran to fund proxy terror groups that have attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East.
"The House voted to eliminate these waiver authorities — twice. But the Biden administration is still waiving the sanctions, putting more money in the Iranian regime’s pockets to fund its terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons program," McCaul posted on X.
"The U.S. should not be subsidizing Iran’s malign activities."
President-elect Trump promised there would be "all hell to pay" if the hostages being held captive by Hamas are not released prior to when he takes office on Jan. 20.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said nothing was being done to free those being held by the Iran-backed terror group since Oct. 7, 2023, after Hamas attacked Israel and killed at least 1,200 people and kidnapped at least 250 others.
"Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!" Trump wrote.
"Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity," Trump added.
On Saturday, Hamas released a video of an Israeli-American hostage pleading for his release.
The footage shows Edan Alexander, 20, covering his face and crying. He was abducted by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023.
Alexander explained that he had been a prisoner for over 420 days and delivered forced messages to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump. Netanyahu spoke with Alexander's family and is determined "to take every action to bring them back home," his office said Monday.
Trump said those responsible for taking the hostages "will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America."
More than a year after the attacks, a permanent cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas remains elusive. Israeli forces continue to conduct military operations in Gaza.
A cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon was reached in November following a year of attacks targeting Israel's north by Hezbollah. On Monday, Israel said Hezbollah broke the cease-fire by launching two projectiles. No one was harmed.
"We are determined to continue to enforce the cease-fire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah – minor or serious," Netanyahu said.
President-elect Trump tapped his daughter Tiffany Trump's father-in-law, Lebanese-American businessman Dr. Massad Boulos, to join his Cabinet as senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs.
"I am proud to announce that Massad Boulos will serve as Senior Advisor to the President on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs," the president-elect wrote on TRUTHSocial. "Massad is an accomplished lawyer and a highly respected leader in the business world, with extensive experience on the International scene. He has been a longtime proponent of Republican and Conservative values, an asset to my Campaign, and was instrumental in building tremendous new coalitions with the Arab American Community. Massad is a dealmaker, and an unwavering supporter of PEACE in the Middle East. He will be a strong advocate for the United States, and its interests, and I am pleased to have him on our team!"
Boulos led efforts to engage the Arab American community, organizing dozens of meetings across Michigan and other areas with large Arab populations.
Some sessions also featured Richard Grenell, former acting director of national intelligence, who was well-regarded by those who met with him.
Trump campaign officials and supporters told Reuters that Boulos helped flip some of the 300,000 Arab Americans and Muslims in Michigan who largely backed Biden in 2020 but later grew frustrated with Biden's policies in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.
Boulos' son, Michael, and Tiffany Trump were married in November 2022 at Mar-a-Lago. Trump revealed during a speech to the Detroit Economic Club in October that Tiffany is pregnant.
Boulos is a billionaire with extensive business connections to Nigeria. He was born in Lebanon but moved to Texas as a teenager. He attended the University of Houston and later became a U.S. citizen.
According to Reuters, Boulos' father and grandfather were involved in Lebanese politics, and his father-in-law backed the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian party affiliated with Hezbollah.
Three sources told Reuters that Boulos' appeal centers on his ability to engage with different factions within Lebanese politics, as he's even maintained relations with Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shi'ite Muslim party and terrorist group that largely controls the parliament. Boulos is friends with Suleiman Frangieh, a Christian politician backed by Hezbollah for the presidency, and has been in communication with the Lebanese Forces Party, a Christian faction that staunchly opposes Hezbollah.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
President-elect Trump will take office just as Iran has the potential to become the world’s 10th nuclear-armed state, and it’s unclear if either side knows how it will approach the other.
Judging by Trump’s last time in office, it would suggest he would come out the gate with a combative tone — having instituted a "maximum pressure" campaign to "bankrupt" the regime. His secretary of state pick, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has been an unyielding Iran hawk in the Senate.
After the regime fired 200 missiles toward Tel Aviv last month, Rubio said: "Only threatening the survival of the regime through maximum pressure and direct and disproportionate measures has a chance to influence and alter their criminal activities."
That could reinstate — and eliminate — any waivers for oil sanctions. It could mean threatening not to conduct business with countries that buy Iranian fuel products.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick for national security adviser, is of a similar mind.
Last month, when the Biden administration urged Israel to keep its counterstrikes "proportional," Waltz slammed President Biden for pressuring Israel "once again to do less than it should."
He suggested Israel strike oil facilities on Kharg Island and Iran’s nuclear plants in Natanz, a move the Biden team feared Iran would deem escalatory.
Last month, Trump appeared to rule out the U.S. getting involved in any effort to take out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and his government. "We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it," he said.
"I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can't have a nuclear weapon."
Trump has said he does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but has not laid out how he would stop it from doing so.
"I'm not looking to be bad to Iran, we're going to be friendly, I hope, with Iran, maybe, but maybe not. But we're going to be friendly, I hope, we're going to be friendly, but they can't have a nuclear weapon," he said at a New Jersey press conference in August.
Last month, Trump suggested Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Following the Iranian missile attacks, he suggested Israel should "hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later."
On Thursday, Iran said it was activating "advanced" centrifuges after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors censured it for failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Without cooperation, the world is in the dark about how quickly Iran is advancing its technological capabilities to use its uranium fuel for a bomb.
"We will significantly increase enrichment capacity," Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran's atomic energy organization spokesman, said after the censure.
What’s standing between Iran and a fully formed nuclear weapon is both a political and a technological question.
While the nation has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the process of turning that into a warhead could take anywhere from six to 12 months, according to Nicole Grajewski, nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"That’s when Iran would be most vulnerable to attack," she said. "Iran could probably make a dirty bomb from its current stockpile."
Over the years, Iran’s nuclear progress has been set back by international sanctions, COVID-19, high-profile assassinations of its nuclear scientists and attacks and sabotage on its nuclear facilities led by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.
And announcing they have a nuclear weapon could threaten Iran’s longtime goal of regional hegemony.
"Iran is less isolated than it was four years ago, but it’s still pretty isolated. Announcing they are nuclear would trigger an arms race in the Middle East," predicted Simone Leeden, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East.
"Saudi Arabia and the UAE would decide they will pursue nuclear weapons the minute Iran declares it has its own. Another action they could and would take is deepening ties with Israel."
Iran also understands that producing a nuclear bomb would likely evoke a military response from Israel and the U.S. under Trump.
After years of trying to assassinate Trump, the Iranians don’t seem to have figured out whether to approach the U.S. relationship under Trump with a combative or diplomatic tone. Just last month, they told President Biden they would not make any efforts to kill the president-elect going forward.
"I think that there's been a lot of mixed signaling from the kind of Trump transition team is, you know, you see Brian Hook being appointed, who was behind this maximum pressure and sanctions," said Grajewski. But then, on the other hand, Trump envoy Elon Musk reportedly met with Iranian officials to discuss how the two nations could dial back tensions.
"I think that he is being opaque on purpose," said Leeden. "I don't think he wants to show his cards as a negotiator."
"In all likelihood, maximum pressure is going to be restored," said Behnam Taleblu, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "U.S. partners are asking now, to what end? Is it towards regime collapse? Is it towards a deal? What if the Iranians don't negotiate in good faith?"
Former Israeli officials have suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be emboldened to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with the go-ahead from the Trump administration. But a lot of Iran’s centrifuge and enrichment facilities are deep underground, complicating a bombing campaign against them.
To get to them, Israel would need the U.S.' Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), or "bunkbuster bombs."
"It would require U.S. involvement — either the direct transfer of this, which is currently not really discussed — that would be pretty escalatory — or Israel getting the United States to also conduct this mission," said Grajewski.
The Trump team will also place a high priority on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, solidifying the Sunni Muslim alliance against Iran. But the Saudis have insisted the U.S. and Israel must recognize a Palestinian state for such a deal to get done.
"The incoming administration wants to quiet down this kinetic energy in the Middle East quickly, because we have bigger fish to fry as a country," said Leeden.
The U.S. has long looked to pivot its military focus away from the Middle East and toward the Indo-Pacific. The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas after Oct. 7 tore that focus back to the Arab world.
