• NATO pit elite divers against new sensors to protect undersea cables from sabotage.
• Foreign adversaries have increasingly targeted undersea cables and underwater infrastructure.
• The training marks another shift in how NATO countries are preparing for future warfare.

NATO sent special operations divers to test new systems designed to help shield critical underwater infrastructure from damage and sabotage, growing problems.

Underwater cables and pipelines providing internet connectivity and energy have been damaged in a string of alarming incidents in recent years, with accusations of sabotage being thrown around about several just in the past couple of months.

These incidents highlight the vulnerability of these lines, but the NATO alliance is looking for answers.

Last fall, elite special operations divers from within the NATO alliance practiced bypassing underwater electronic detection sensors as part of an effort to boost protection for critical underwater infrastructure. NATO shared footage this week of the November training event — Exercise Bold Machina 2024 in La Spezia, Italy — as well as commentary from leadership.

The 13-nation event was the first of its kind, said US Navy Capt. Kurt Muhler, the maritime development director at the NATO Special Operations Headquarters, and was designed to test new sensors that could be used to defend against underwater sabotage attempts. This exercise, which Defense News first reported on, also tested allied special operations divers and their abilities to operate in increasingly transparent battlespaces.

Divers on offensive operations may not always be able to rely on dark, opaque waters to conceal their movements, Muhler, who has held SEAL team leadership positions, said, citing increased advancements in underwater detection system technologies.

"It's not knowing if somebody knows, or if you're being detected," Muhler told Defense News last fall. "It is understanding that there is a system that has the capability to detect you, but that you know nothing about it and don't know exactly what the capability is."

Undersea cables, pipelines, and other critical underwater infrastructure are at risk

The joint exercise in Italy came as damage to critical underwater infrastructure has become increasingly worrisome to Western officials who are scrambling to deter more damage to cables from vessels often quietly linked to Russian and Chinese governments.

Several underwater cables have been damaged in the past two months, including one telecommunications line linking Finland and Germany and another connecting Finland and Estonia.

Finnish officials said that they found a 60-mile seabed trail suggesting a tanker linked to Russia might be responsible for cutting cables. And around the same time, cables linking Germany and Finland and Sweden and Estonia were damaged with a Chinese vessel detected nearby when the damage occurred.

Such damage has spurred British defense officials to create a new joint operation with 10 European countries throughout the Baltic Sea area, using artificial intelligence to monitor potential threats from ships.

Undersea cables are critical components of international telecommunication infrastructure and the global economy — around 745,000 miles of cables span global seabeds and help transmit 95% of international data, including around $10 trillion in financial transactions daily.

NATO officials highlighted growing threats to cables from Russia last year, noting surveillance activity from Russian units specializing in undersea sabotage. But the barrier to entry for sabotage isn't particularly high. Russia has submarine units known to specialize in underwater sabotage, but cables have also been damaged by commercial vessels simply dragging their anchors along the sea floor.

And the concerns about the risk of underwater cable and infrastructure damage are not limited to European waters. Damage just last week to cables off the coast of Taiwan left that island's officials suspecting intentional damage from China.

"The underwater domain is hard both to protect and hard to attack," said Alberto Tremori, a NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation scientist who helped oversee the November NATO exercise. "It's not easy to protect because it's a complex environment, it's a vast environment."

• The Pentagon deployed modified C-130 aircraft to aid in the fight against the Los Angeles wildfires.
• The wildfires spread rapidly due to strong winds and dry conditions, scorching over 30,000 acres.
• The C-130s can waterbomb wildfires with nearly 14 tons of fire retardant in less than five seconds.

The Department of Defense deployed modified C-130 aircraft and Navy helicopters to support efforts to contain the destructive wildfires burning in Los Angeles.

A wildfire started in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Tuesday and began to spread rapidly as strong offshore winds fanned the flames, setting over 30,000 acres ablaze and ruining neighborhoods in scenes reminiscent of war zones.

The C-130s are fitted with a firefighting unit that can drop thousands of gallons of water or fire retardant to suppress the blaze.

Most destructive wildfires on record

At least 10 people have died and 10,000 properties have been damaged in the fires, and officials expect figures to grow as firefighters and first responders struggle to contain the flames.

The Santa Ana winds annually threaten to stoke the flames during California's wildfire season, but extreme drought combined with the powerful offshore winds catalyzed the record-breaking wildfires that continue to burn through Southern California.

Since California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles County, tens of thousands of residents have been impacted by evacuation orders.

Containing the blaze

More than 600 personnel, 10 rotary-wing aircraft, and two C-130 Hercules aircraft from the California National Guard were deployed to battle the blaze.

The Biden administration ordered the Pentagon to send eight MAFFS-equipped C-130s from Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado to support firefighting efforts in Los Angeles. Some were expected to start fire-suppression flights on Friday.

Hazardous weather conditions prevented the DoD from getting the planes in the air earlier and from sending additional assets to respond to the massive fires.

"We can surge assets, and the president has directed this department to bolster whatever California needs, but we have to work with California," Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said during a press conference Wednesday, "and right now, we can't even get assets up in the air because the fires are so bad and the winds are so bad."

"Until we can get more assets in the air, there's only so much we can provide," she continued. "So we're going to be standing by to support in every single way that we can."

In the meantime, the Defense Department is also sending 10 Navy helicopters with water delivery buckets for immediate aerial suppression, in addition to two firefighting teams and four military police groups on the ground.

From cargo plane to firefighting aircraft

The Lockheed C-130 Hercules is a versatile workhorse plane with a spacious cargo hold that can be equipped for a wide range of operations.

When deployed as a firefighting aircraft, the C-130 can be equipped with a Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) unit to support other air tankers in aerial suppression.

The MAFFS units can be filled with water or a fire retardant called "slurry," which is mostly made of water with the addition of ammonium sulfate, a jelling agent, and red coloring to make it visible to pilots when dropped.

The US military has eight MAFFs units ready for use nationwide, operated by National Guardsmen stationed in California, Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado.

The MAFFS Program was launched by Congress in the 1970s after a massive wildfire in Long Beach, California, overwhelmed the responding civilian air tanker fleet and destroyed hundreds of homes.

Waterbombing process

The unit can fit inside the cargo hold with no structural modification to allow for quick loading on short notice, taking about four hours or less for a crew of five to set up, fill, and load the 11,000-pound unit.

The C-130 drops its contents through a discharge tube installed on the rear left side of the C-130 and through the open cargo bay door, releasing 3,000 gallons in less than five seconds and covering an area over 1,300 feet long and 100 feet wide.

Because the fire retardant slurry is released in a mist, it doesn't cause damage to buildings and structures while acting as a fertilizer, but it can be harmful to the environment and local wildlife if used in excess.

The unit can be refilled and airborne again in under 20 minutes.

• Ukraine said one of its pilots downed a record-breaking six cruise missiles in a single mission.
• The pilot said he downed two of them with his gun, something experts said took great skill and risk.
• Getting close enough to shoot down missiles requires skill to avoid getting hit with dangerous debris.

The Ukrainian F-16 pilot said to have shot down half a dozen Russian cruise missiles in a single mission showed remarkable skill, particularly during a risky gun battle, a former US Air Force pilot told Business Insider.

Ukraine's air force command said that an F-16 pilot took out six Russian cruise missiles during a single flight in December, calling it a first for the jet. It said that during the historic engagement, the pilot shot down two missiles with the F-16's M61A1 six-barrel 20 mm cannon.

Ret. Col. John Venable, a 25-year veteran of the US Air Force and a former F-16 pilot, told BI that the pilot's ability to gun down the Russian missiles without putting his own aircraft at risk required a lot of skill.

He said "the fact that he did that without fragging himself" says "a lot about his skill set."

Switching to guns raises risks

Ukraine's F-16s have been repeatedly seen flying with an air-defense loadout of two AIM-9 Sidewinders and two AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. The country's air force said the pilot had used up all of his missiles and was low on fuel after destroying four Russian missiles, but he then saw another Russian missile going toward Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.

He moved to intercept it, firing his gun at the missile that was traveling over 400 miles an hour, the air force said. There was more than one explosion, and the pilot realized that he had actually eliminated two Russian missiles.

The Ukrainian F-16 pilot, per a translation by RBC-Ukraine, said that there was a danger in doing that because "shooting down cruise missiles with a cannon is very risky because of the high speed of the target and the danger of detonation. But I did what the instructors in the US taught me, and I managed to hit it."

Venable said the risk of debris makes this kind of engagement more dangerous for the pilot. He said that pilots must get close to missiles to get a good shot.

He said that if the intercepting aircraft is behind the target and it explodes when hit, "you're going to be what we call fragged," meaning that the aircraft absorbs some of the explosive debris. Pilots have to come in at an angle. Venable said that there being two missiles meant the situation required greater skill.

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, likewise said that fighter pilots using guns must get "pretty close" to their target. That brings danger, with cruise missiles "packed with explosives."

"If you're firing at something and it's at close range and that thing goes off — you've got to be pretty aggressive and pretty brave to be doing that," he said.

It takes skill to fly this mission

Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, the former deputy assistant secretary-general for NATO's defense-investment division, told BI "shooting two cruise missiles with aircraft guns is quite impressive."

Venable said that pilots who are shooting at a missile but want to protect their aircraft must approach the missile like they are coming onto a highway from an off-ramp, "where you're at 90 degrees out, and then you start to actually align your car with the highway as that on-ramp turns onto the road."

"That's where you want to take the shot, not when you are right behind the aircraft." And doing that "takes skill," he said.

Ukraine has not commented on the aircraft's state but said the pilot landed at an airfield, indicating it was intact.

Ukraine's air force command said pilots learned to shoot missiles with aircraft cannons in US simulators but never tried it before in combat, the Kyiv Post reported.

Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, told BI the gun kill was "good flying."

He said that it's "easier now with modern radars in fighters than in World War II, but the fighter still needs to close with the cruise missile and fire very accurately."

The jets are likely to continue to fight as missile shields

Battling Russian aircraft would be the better test because they shoot back, but Venable said the reported achievement, which he said was "more than plausible," says a lot "about how far Ukraine's air force has come" and the Ukrainian air force's capabilities.

Kyiv's new F-16s provide added air defense as Russia batters Ukraine with barrages of missiles, hitting major cities and energy infrastructure and killing civilians. The jets support already-strained ground-based air defenses.

This mission carries risks, and Ukraine has already lost at least one of its F-16s and one of its trained pilots.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser on the International Security Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that Ukraine is facing threats Western pilots haven't.

"None have faced the numbers of simultaneous incoming missiles that the Ukrainians have," he said. "US and Western pilots have faced one or two incoming missiles at a time."

Ukraine has a limited F-16 fleet that arrived later than desired. Partner nations have pledged more than 85, far fewer than what the Ukrainians likely need. Many of the jets, older versions of what Western nations fly, still haven't been delivered.

Ukraine probably won't receive enough fighters to use them the way the West does, but it can use them to strengthen its air defenses.

Venable said Ukraine does not have enough aircraft, stealth platforms, and other assets to be able to really use its jets to press against Russia. He said partners had to be conscious of leaving enough jets in their own fleets.

Col. Yuriy Ihnat, the head of the Ukrainian air force command's public relations service, said Ukraine wants more powerful modifications and missiles for its F-16s to compete with Russia, but said the headline-making intercept showed the skill of Ukrainian pilots and how formidable Ukraine's air force could be with more powerful jets.

• Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse full of reconnaissance drones on Friday.
• A security source said Ukraine targeted the facility with drones and a Neptune missile.
• Russia uses its reconnaissance drones to support deep strikes, which have been a problem for Kyiv.

Ukraine says that its forces attacked a Russian warehouse facility full of reconnaissance drones on Friday, hitting it with a homemade missile not often mentioned in disclosures of Kyiv's combat operations.

The cross-border attack targeted a drone and ammunition storage facility in Russia's southwestern Rostov region, a Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) source told Business Insider Friday.

The source said that Ukraine first launched drones to overwhelm Russia's air defenses in the area before striking the site, located near the small village of Chaltyr, with a Neptune missile.

The R-360 Neptune is a subsonic, long-range cruise missile made by the Ukrainian defense manufacturer Luch Design Bureau. It was initially developed as an anti-ship missile, but the weapon has since been modified to strike land targets.

The modified Neptune missile doesn't get as much attention as some of the country's other weapons, especially those provided by Kyiv's Western partners, but Ukraine has used it to strike high-value Russian targets, including high-end air-defense batteries and, more recently, oil terminals. Friday's attack appeared to be its first confirmed combat use in quite some time.

Footage of the attack, which was shared with BI, captures the buzz of what appears to be drones. A massive fireball can be seen at one point, followed by a loud blast. Other videos show fires at the site and plumes of smoke. Since ammunition was stored at the facility, secondary explosions may have occurred.

The source said that the strike operation was carried out by the SBU and Ukraine's navy. "Now these Russian 'birds' in the sky will be reduced. Work on military facilities in the enemy's rear will continue," they said, according to a translation of their remarks shared with BI. BI was unable to independently verify the details of the operation.

Russia uses its reconnaissance drones, like the Orlan, among other systems, to enable deep strikes on Ukraine by providing valuable intelligence, like targeting data on troop positions and critical equipment, from behind the front lines. Moscow then attacks these locations with guided tactical missiles.

Russia's reconnaissance strike complex has been a challenge for Ukraine, particularly amid strains on its air defenses.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have routinely pressed the US and its NATO allies for more air defenses and interceptor missiles to help defend against Russian strikes. The Ukrainians have also been increasingly looking to interceptor drones as cheap alternatives to costly missiles.

Taking targets out on the ground is another option. The strike on Friday marked Ukraine's latest cross-border attack in Russia. Earlier this month, Kyiv launched drones at a major port near the city of St. Petersburg, hundreds of miles away, in a bid to disrupt operations at the facility. These strikes have become a problem for Russia.

• Russia's elites are growing frustrated with Putin's efforts to wage war in Ukraine, per Meduza.
• Sources told the outlet they're also concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions.
• But Russian security officials appear to want Putin to intensify the war, a DC think tank said.

Russia's elites are growing tired of waiting for the war to end and are concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy, according to a report by Meduza.

High-ranking sources told the independent Russian outlet that Russia's "elites" are disappointed that the war with Ukraine didn't end in 2024.

The sources included people close to and in the Russian presidential administration, two State Duma deputies, a senator, and three high-ranking officials in Russian regional governments.

One government source told the outlet that the overall emotions are "disappointment" and "fatigue."

"We were waiting for the war to end, for the fighting to end," they said. "We are tired of even waiting."

Two people close to the presidential administration said that the government doesn't have a clear postwar vision.

Meanwhile, another source said Russian elites, primarily high-ranking security officials, are growing irritated by the lack of manpower and material to wage the war, and believe Putin must launch a mobilization effort to further shift Russian society and economy to a war footing.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has significantly grown its military and war economy. However, the war has come at a considerable cost.

Russian troop losses have risen for six straight months, the UK Ministry of Defence said this week, citing Ukrainian data. It said Russia's costliest day came on December 19, when 2,200 of its troops were killed or wounded.

Russia's economy has also come under strain due to persistent high inflation, slowing economic growth, and Western sanctions.

Even so, the Institute for the Study of War, a DC think tank, said Meduza's report, published Thursday, suggests that high-ranking Russian military and security officials believe Putin should escalate the war rather than seek a diplomatic solution.

In an update on Thursday, the ISW said that Russian security and military officials don't appear ready to abandon the war, despite mounting battlefield losses.

Instead, it said, they are seemingly advocating for Putin to intensify Russia's war effort by calling for additional partial reserve call-ups and a formal decision to transition to a wartime footing.

But, according to the ISW, Putin is against further mobilizing the Russian economy or a partial involuntary reserve call-up because these measures would be extremely unpopular and would worsen the country's labor shortages.

• China could destroy or neutralize US and allied airpower in a war with fewer shots than the other way around, a new report argues.
• China has prioritized hardening and expanding its airfields in the region at a faster rate than the US and its allies.
• The report's authors argue the US needs to prioritize defense, hardening airbases, and evolving its force.

In a war, China could suppress or destroy critical American airpower in the Indo-Pacific region with far fewer shots than it would take the US and its allies to do the same to Beijing's air forces, a new research report argues.

The report's authors note that China has been working faster than the US to harden its airbases and diversify its combat aircraft in the region, creating an imbalance in China's favor. American airfields are vulnerable to attack in a conflict, such as a fight over Taiwan.

A new Hudson Institute analysis from researchers Thomas Shugart and Timothy Walton highlights the serious threat facing US installations in the Pacific and echoes Department of Defense concerns about growing China's arsenal of missiles and those of US lawmakers about inadequate defenses.

In the report, Shugart and Walton write that China "has made major investments to defend, expand, and fortify" its airfields and more than doubled its hardened aircraft shelters and unhardened individual aircraft shelters over the past decade. China has also added to its taxiways and ramp areas. All of these efforts effectively give the Chinese military more places to protect and launch combat aircraft in a potential fight.

US efforts have been modest by comparison. And its military airfield capacity, including that of allies in the region, is roughly one-third of China's; without South Korea, that drops to one-quarter, and without the Philippines, it falls to just 15 percent.

The Air Force has been looking at dispersion and atypical runways as part of its Agile Combat Employment efforts, but there is still a notable shortfall that could be exploited.

This imbalance means it would take China far fewer missiles or airstrikes to neutralize US and allied airfields than it would the other way around, Shugart and Walton write. A preemptive strike, surprise being important in Chinese military doctrine, could catch the US and its allies off guard and give China an edge in air operations.

"Strategically, this destabilizing asymmetry risks incentivizing the PRC to exercise a first-mover advantage," the report says. "China could initiate a conflict if it sees an opportunity to nullify adversary airpower on the ramp."

Shugart wrote in 2017 that this is a real possibility, "particularly if China perceives that its attempts at deterrence of a major US intervention — say in a cross-strait Taiwan crisis or in a brewing dispute over the Senkaku Islands — have failed."

China has not been shy about its investments in being able to pull off such a strike, either. Beijing has invested heavily in its rocket force, with the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power documenting staggering growth in the number of stockpiled missiles and launchers, including the weapons it would need to hit US installations in the region. Satellite images have also documented mock American military assets, such as aircraft carriers, widely seen as missile targets.

For the conflicts and airpower operations in the Middle East, the US military enjoyed the ability to deploy to forward airfields uncontested, but the threat environment is different in the Pacific. A war with China would be very different.

But despite the significant concerns both within the Pentagon and Washington about vulnerabilities in US airbases, "the US military has devoted relatively little attention to countering these threats compared to its focus on developing modern aircraft," Shugart and Walton write. Older and newer aircraft differ in the air but are equally vulnerable on the ground.

The Ukraine war and ongoing fights in the Middle East have demonstrated that airfields are high-priority targets.

In order to counter the threat China poses, the Hudson report argues the US should invest further in active defenses for its air operations, harden its airfields to maintain resilience, and accelerate its efforts to field aircraft and unmanned systems that can operate from short or damaged runways or don't require runaways altogether, efforts fitting with ACE operations.

"Executing an effective campaign to enhance the resilience of US airfield operations will require informed decisions to prioritize projects — and sustained funding," Shugart and Walton write. "What is clear, however, is that US airfields do face the threat of attack, and the current DoD approach of largely ignoring this fact invites PRC aggression and risks losing a war." 

• Russian glide-bomb attacks against Ukraine are down compared to a few months ago.
• Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian airfields and ammunition depots helped to reduce the threat.
• A Ukrainian soldier on the southern front said attacks are down by 70 percent compared to months ago.

Russia is carrying out fewer glide-bomb attacks on Ukraine compared to a few months ago, but the highly destructive weapons are still a severe threat to soldiers and civilians.

Factors behind the recent decrease in bombing runs include a string of Ukrainian drone strikes on airbases and ammunition storage facilities inside Russia during the summer and fall. Kyiv's forces are also getting better at defending against the glide bombs.

Russian aircraft have launched glide bombs at Ukraine throughout much of the war. The weapons are equipped with special kits converting dumb bombs into precision-guided munitions. They are quite difficult to intercept because they fly on non-ballistic trajectories, have small radar signatures, and have fairly short flight times.

Glide bombs come in various sizes, but among the larger is one weighing over 6,000 pounds that delivers tremendous destruction on impact.

A Ukrainian soldier fighting on the front lines in the south told Business Insider that glide bombs cause a lot of problems, but there has been a significant decrease in attacks since the summer.

Yuriy, a major in an electronic warfare unit of the Ukrainian National Guard, said that in his sector of the front, Russia has reduced the number of its attacks by around 70 percent compared to the summer.

He attributed the decrease to Ukraine's long-range strike campaign inside Russia. He also suggested that the presence of F-16 fighter jets, which made their combat debut for Kyiv last August, might be making Russian pilots hesitant to fly too close to the border.

The only way really for Ukraine to defeat glide bombs is to either shoot down the warplane before it releases the munition or strike the aircraft on the ground at its base. They can also destroy the ammunition stores.

During the summer and fall, Ukraine used domestically produced drones to carry out a string of high-profile attacks on Russian storage facilities where glide bombs were kept and airfields where the warplanes carrying them were based.

Ukraine has also benefitted from the Biden administration's decision to lift restrictions on Kyiv's use of American-made tactical ballistic missiles, known as ATACMS, in cross-border strikes. Ukrainian officials long argued more freedom in this space would allow them to threaten Russian airfields and reduce glide-bomb attacks.

Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, explained to BI that Kyiv's strikes on the airfields forced Russia to move its tactical aviation deeper into the country and away from the front lines.

This campaign has led to a decrease in sortie rate — how often Russia can get its warplanes in the air to conduct the bombing missions — and has increased the detection time that Ukrainian forces have since the aircraft are approaching from farther out.

Chernev said that Ukraine has also been chipping away at the number of glide bombs in Russia's arsenal by targeting its ammunition depots.

But these strikes aren't a "magic tool," he said. The Russians can always build another storage depot to replace one that has been destroyed. Chernev said that while glide-bomb attacks are ultimately down, "it's still a problem for us because we cannot intercept these guided bombs."

Ukraine can, however, take actions short of interception. George Barros, the geospatial-intelligence team lead and a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI that Ukraine has gotten better at using electronic warfare to interfere with the Russian glide bombs, reducing their efficacy.

On the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region, Barros said that he's observed a correlation between the decrease in the glide-bomb attacks and the rate of Russian advances, which have slowed over the past month or two.

"The Russian forces there are very tired and very much attrited," he said, acknowledging that as a contributing factor.

But hindrances impacting Russia's ability to drop glide bombs on Ukraine, coupled with the decreased effectiveness of these weapons, "also tracks with the observation of the Russian rate of infantry advance," given that Moscow uses these munitions to support its ground forces, Barros said, adding that "these all sort of align in a mutually supporting way."

He emphasized that to prevent the glide-bomb threat from reemerging, the US and NATO need to continue arming Ukraine with long-range missiles so it can keep the pressure on Russia's airbases.

Despite an overall decrease in glide-bomb strikes, these weapons are still causing death and destruction across Ukraine. On Wednesday, Russia attacked the city of Zaporizhzhia with two munitions, killing over a dozen people and injuring more than 30, authorities said.

"This shows once again what Russia truly seeks," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said later that evening. "They want only war, and only victims."

• North Korea is learning combat lessons fighting Ukraine, a US official said.
• It means the authoritarian state is more of a threat to its neighbors.
• North Korea has dispatched around 12,000 troops to fight for Russia.

North Korea is learning valuable lessons from fighting against Ukraine, making it an increased threat to its neighbors, a US official said.

In recent months, North Korea has sent around 12,000 troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine as part of a new security pact between its leader, Kim Jong Un, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The fighting has been concentrated in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine has seized and held swaths of territory.

In exchange, North Korea is receiving economic and diplomatic backing from Russia, as well as valuable military technology.

Dorothy Camille Shea, the deputy US ambassador to the UN, discussed the arrangement at the UN Security Council, Reuters reported.

North Korea "is significantly benefiting from receiving Russian military equipment, technology and experience, rendering it more capable of waging war against its neighbors," she said.

"In turn, the DPRK will likely be eager to leverage these improvements to promote weapons sales and military training contracts globally," she said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

After brokering its alliance with Russia, North Korea has taken a defiant posture and on Monday tested a ballistic missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead.

The test came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea. The timing seemed intended to showcase North Korea's capacity to overcome the defenses of the US and its regional allies.

South Korea has watched North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war with growing concern. It said last year it could provide Ukraine with intensified support in response to the alliance with Russia.

The UN has long sought to constrain North Korea's military program, specifically its ability to deploy nuclear weapons, by imposing severe sanctions.

But Russia has used its place on the UN Security Council to stymie a committee formed to enforce them.

On Wednesday, Russia's UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, argued that North Korea's new missile tests were a defensive measure in response to military exercises by the US and its regional allies.

Under President Joe Biden, the US reaffirmed its commitment to help defend east Asian regional allies, including South Korea and Japan.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he may take a more transactional approach to broker a deal with Kim, a path he pursued in his first term.

• Behrouz Esbati, an Iranian general, partially blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria.
• In a speech in Tehran, Esbati accused Russia of bombing an empty desert instead of hitting Syrian rebels.
• While difficult to verify, his frank remarks are notable since Russia is one of Iran's strongest allies.

A top Iranian general has accused Russia of lying to Tehran by saying its jets were attacking Syrian rebels while they were instead bombing the open desert.

In a rare break from Iran's diplomatic line on Syria, Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati partially blamed Moscow for the fall of Bashar Assad's government during a speech at a mosque in Tehran.

An audio recording of the speech was published on Tuesday by Abdullah Abdi, a journalist in Geneva who reports on Iran.

"We were defeated, and defeated very badly. We took a very big blow, and it's been very difficult," Esbati said of Assad's fall, according to a translation by The New York Times.

In the recording, Esbati, a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Russia told Tehran it was bombing the headquarters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group spearheading Assad's ousting.

But Moscow's forces were instead "targeting deserts," Esbati said.

Esbati further accused Russia of turning off radars when Israel launched strikes on Syria in 2024, allowing Tel Aviv's forces to attack more effectively.

The general also largely blamed internal corruption for Assad's fall, saying bribery was rife among Syria's top-ranking officials and generals.

He added that relations between Damascus and Tehran grew tense over the last year because Assad refused an Iranian request to facilitate attacks on Israel through Syria.

Business Insider couldn't independently verify Esbati's claims. But they represent an exceptionally frank assessment among Iran's top ranks of its position in Syria, where a new political leadership is still coalescing in Assad's absence.

Iran officially held a much milder tone as Assad's government fell, saying at the time that the fate of Syria would be up to its people and that it "will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria."

Assad, a longtime ally of both Iran and Russia, fled Damascus in early December as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces stormed toward the capital from the northwest. International observers believe the rebel advance largely happened as Moscow, a key source of military strength for Assad, found its resources stretched thin by the war in Ukraine.

The Russian defense ministry didn't respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Esbati's remarks came as a former senior aide to Assad told the Saudi government-owned outlet Al Arabiya on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had stalled military assistance for Syria.

Kamel Saqr said that Assad had asked Putin to personally approve airlifting military aid to Syria — and that the Russian leader agreed.

The aid was to be transported via Iranian aircraft, but Saqr said Tehran told Assad it didn't receive any requests from Moscow.

Assad then asked Moscow about this, but "no answer came," Saqr said.

Assad's fall, which neither Moscow nor Tehran stepped up to prevent, has brought deep implications for Russia's forces in the region. Moscow had previously relied on an airbase and a naval base, which it maintained under a deal with Assad, for its operations in Africa and the Mediterranean.

It's unclear whether Russia will eventually be able to continue maintaining those two facilities, but reports show that it's preparing to move much of its equipment out of Syria. On Friday, Ukraine said Moscow was planning to move its assets to Libya.

• US special operations forces are shifting their focus after decades of counterterrorism.
• Competition with China and Russia is reshaping how SOF supports the joint force.
• A senior Pentagon official said that special operations is also returning to its "roots."

A senior Pentagon official said this week that the role of US special operations is changing as the US faces increasing competition and challenges from China and Russia.

With the threat of a conflict against a powerful and advanced adversary looming, special operations forces are returning to their "roots," Christopher Maier, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, said.

The direction of special operations forces (SOF) is adapting to the largest challenges facing the US — a rapidly growing Chinese military and Russian state set on expansion by force.

Maier said during a conversation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank on Tuesday that SOF is "still doing counterterrorism, crisis response, those have been the persistent missions," but the priority is shifting towards "increasingly where we can support other elements, largely in a support role, for those strategic competition elements."

That means playing a big role in solving challenges facing the joint force, like more modern adaptations to using artificial intelligence, as well as the traditional functions of SOF, such as "being that sensor out there and providing the necessary input to decision makers to better understand a situation," noted Maier, who previously led the Pentagon's Defeat-ISIS Task Force overseeing the campaign across Iraq and Syria that relied heavily on American special operators.

Special operators are the US military's most highly trained troops, the go-to teams for small raids and secretive missions, but they lack the numbers and firepower to go up against larger conventional forces for long.

Much of the US' special operations presence in over 80 countries around the world is focused on working closely with foreign militaries, law enforcement, and embassies to keep a finger on the pulse. For the past 20 years, the US has relied on these forces for some the most unconventional and difficult missions, like teaming with partner forces to fight enemies or running shadowy helicopter assaults to kill or capture key leaders.

Maier said he views it as both a continuation of the counterterrorism and crisis response that SOF has been doing for decades and also a step back to its origins.

"We're going back to the proverbial roots of supporting the joint force with some of the hardest problems against peer adversaries," Maier said.

With the so-called War on Terror, SOF has spent over 20 years operating in counterterrorism and unconventional warfare roles, fighting quietly in a variety of environments across the world and maintaining relationships that provide the US with information on tactics of specific groups and deeper understandings of regional and security issues.

That role is now changing, albeit just as important. In a 2023 article for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, David Ucko, a professor and expert on irregular warfare, argues that leaders in Washington need to examine how to best use SOF for newer challenges against Russia and China. That includes irregular warfare, which is "highly relevant" to strategic competition with China.

But, Ucko notes, special operators fill a particular role in military operations and shouldn't be given missions that other US agencies or groups can also do.

One of the deepest challenges these secretive forces face is the widening surveillance by spy satellites and recon drones.

SOF missions often have multiple objectives like foreign internal defense and unconventional warfare; special operators can, for example, help boost a US ally's defense tactics against a foreign aggressor, such as Taiwan and China.

Allied special forces played critical roles in World War II, shaped by the need for specialization in unconventional missions and innovative tactics, such as sabotage behind enemy lines and disrupting German supply lines. In North Africa, British Special Air Services and Commonwealth Long Range Desert Group commandos aided in disrupting Axis troops deployments and airpower.

During the Cold War, special operators played a role in deterring the Soviet Union's influence, maintaining presence in and relationships with Western Europe and other areas.

All of that historical context is informing SOF's priorities today, as the US faces similar challenges against China and Russia and their activities across the world, Maier said.

"The differences, I think, here are some of the fundamental changes in adversaries' ability to access technology," he added, and their ability to "use different types of techniques than maybe we saw in the Cold War."

Both China and Russia are actively engaged in bolstering their irregular warfare tactics, including reconnaissance, disinformation, electronic warfare, cyberspace and space efforts, and psychological warfare.

In its report on China's military growth over the course of 2023, the Pentagon noted that China is expanding its capabilities towards a vision of future conflict it calls "intelligentized warfare" focused on AI, data, and controlling information spaces.

Other elements, such as China's campaigns in Taiwan to influence domestic politics and opinions on unification, are also notable.

• The US Navy is officially referring to F/A-18s armed with nine air-to-air missiles as "Murder Hornets."
• This loadout was first observed during Red Sea combat operations last year.
• The loadout consists of four AIM-9X and five AIM-120 missiles.

The US Navy is officially using the term "Murder Hornet" to describe F/A-18 fighter jets armed with nine air-to-air missiles, a munition configuration first spotted amid Red Sea combat operations last year.

The office of the Chief of Naval Operations highlighted the new term for these missile-packed Super Hornets in a document outlining the Navy's achievements over the past year. It said the configuration, which was used in combat as the sea service faced off against numerous airborne threats, involves arming the jets with four AIM-9X instead of two and five AIM-120 missiles.

This air-to-air loadout was first seen on a Boeing-made F/A-18 Super Hornet during flight operations aboard the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea last April. The Ike and the other ships in its strike group had deployed to the region for several months in response to repeated Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on shipping lanes off the coast of Yemen.

The Navy took steps to boost the air-defense capabilities of its Super Hornets amid pressing threats in the Red Sea. Navy aircraft and warships have routinely shot down Houthi drones and missiles above the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since October 2023.

The head of Naval Air Systems Command's Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aviation and Strike Weapons, Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, said last year that the heavy air-to-air configuration, among other efforts, was brought about due to the need for "a lot more firepower and capability immediately in support of Red Sea operations and counter-UAS," The War Zone, which first reported the new nickname, previously reported.

The AIM-9X is the latest model in the decades-old Sidewinder family of short-range missiles, and the AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) is a beyond-visual-range missile capable of all-weather engagements. Both munitions are manufactured by US defense contractor Raytheon, now known as RTX Corporation.

The Eisenhower, where the Murder Hornet configuration was first showcased, is one of four carriers that, along with their strike groups, have participated in counter-Houthi operations. US forces are routinely tasked with intercepting rebel drones and missiles; the Navy said it has defended military and civilian ships from more than 180 attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Using a range of other munitions, the US military has also carried out airstrikes targeting the Houthis. Just on Wednesday, for instance, American forces bombed two underground weapons storage facilities in Yemen.

Despite a year of combat action, the Houthis still maintain the ability to launch attacks, which they claim are done out of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. In recent weeks, the rebels have stepped up drone and missile attacks on Israel, which has responded by bombing their facilities.

• A Ukrainian F-16 pilot may have pulled off a feat no one flying the jet has achieved before.
• Ukraine's Air Force Command said the pilots took out six Russian cruise missiles in a single flight.
• Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said it was the first time this had been recorded in the jet's history.

Ukraine said one of its F-16 pilots achieved a feat nobody flying the jet has managed before.

In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Ukraine's Air Force Command said a pilot flying an F-16 took out six Russian cruise missiles during a single flight, using air-to-air missiles and an aircraft cannon.

This occurred during a "mass" missile and drone attack in December, it said.

On December 13, Russia fired almost 200 drones, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, and 94 cruise missiles at Ukraine.

The pilot's main target was the cruise missiles, according to the post.

He used all four air-to-air missiles on board the F-16, two of which were short-range, forcing the jet to fly closer to the missiles — an "extremely dangerous" task, it said.

The pilot then struck two other missiles flying close to each other using an air cannon.

Business Insider was not able to verify the report.

Intercepting "such important targets is not an easy task for a pilot, but who, if not Ukrainian pilots, has the most experience in the world of winged missiles?" Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, head of the Ukrainian Air Force Command's public relations service, said.

Since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has frequently launched large missile attacks on Ukraine, aimed at overwhelming Ukraine's air defense systems and hitting targets behind the front lines.

The pilot, who had recently undergone retraining for F-16s in the US, said in the post that Ukrainian F-16 pilots had never used an aviation cannon to shoot down targets.

However, he said he applied the lessons he learned in the US.

"I must have set a record that day," he said, adding, "I am convinced that this experience will be useful to colleagues."

Colonel Ihnat described it as the first-ever documented case.

He said that "based on objective control, we have one hundred percent confirmation that for the first time in history in anti-air combat, an American fighter F-16 shoots down six winged missiles."

• Ukraine says it's designed a new type of river drone to target Russian vessels.
• The Black Widow 2 is also able to perform reconnaissance operations, it said.
• Ukraine's military requested it to combat Russian forces and supply runs on the Dnipro River.

Ukraine says it has developed a new type of drone to target Russian vessels deployed on Ukrainian rivers.

Hard Cat, a Kyiv-based drone manufacturer, told Business Insider that the uncrewed river drone, the Black Widow 2, can take out surface targets, including small boats.

It can also carry out reconnaissance and patrolling operations, providing real-time situational awareness, it said, with a maximum speed of almost 25 miles an hour and a communication range of up to 6.2 miles.

And unlike sea drones, which operate in wider bodies of water, the one-meter-long drone's "compact size and high maneuverability allow it to operate effectively" in narrow waterways and river areas.

Drones have been a hallmark of the war in Ukraine, with both sides using them to attack, surveil, and target more accurately.

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia's fleet in the Black Sea using sea drones, with notable effect.

Hard Cat unveiled the river drone's prototype at the Defense Tech Valley investment summit in Kyiv in October 2024.

It told BI the drone has now been successfully tested in rear-area conditions and is undergoing combat trials with two Ukrainian army brigades. It didn't say where those trials were taking place.

"Warfare on water is quite specific and comes with unique challenges, making such a small water drone potentially very useful," it added.

One of the developers, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told BI that they began work on the drone in December 2023, at the request of the Ukrainian military, as a way to counter Russian motorboats used for personnel rotation, supply runs, and reconnaissance.

At the time, Ukrainian troops were fighting to hold out on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, against Russian forces that vastly outnumbered them.

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI that he expects Ukraine to use these new systems primarily on the Dnipro.

"They would probably be most useful in a defensive role, such as striking small vessels carrying Russian assault troops or supplies," he said, rather than working in conjunction with larger, longer-range naval drones to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Basil Germond, an expert in international security at Lancaster University in the UK, made a similar assessment.

"It is important to understand that Russia not only operates big warships and submarines but also a wide array of small boats that support land operations at the tactical level, especially in the wet areas such as the Dnipro Estuary and other rivers," he said.

Germond added: "River drones are likely to contribute to operations against these sorts of assets."

• Russian daily losses hit another record high in December, the UK MOD said.
• The ministry said this marks the fifth straight month that Moscow's daily losses have climbed to new highs.
• Russia's worst day for losses was on December 19, when 2,200 of its troops were killed or wounded, per the MOD.

December marked the fifth month in a row that Russian losses in Ukraine broke records for average daily highs, the UK's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

"The average daily Russian casualties reached a new monthly war high during December 2024," the ministry wrote in an intelligence update. "The daily average loss rate was 1,570, the fifth straight month that Russian Forces have sustained new war high average daily losses."

It said Russia suffered its highest daily loss in the war on December 19, saying that 2,200 of its troops were injured or killed that day.

Citing figures reported by Ukraine, the ministry said December was "likely the most costly month of the war for Russia," with a total of 48,670 dead or wounded.

The ministry added that December was the sixth straight month that Russia suffered an increase in its monthly losses.

It did not say if these numbers included losses taken by North Korean troops, of whom Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview on Sunday that 3,800 were killed or wounded.

The British ministry has regularly said over the last year that Russia has increasingly been suffering from high losses due to its reliance on mass infantry assaults aimed at wearing down Ukraine's defenses.

Ukrainian brigades, which say they are sometimes outnumbered one to five and often underequipped, have slowly yielded about 1,600 square miles of territory in 2024.

But the grinding assault has come at a high cost for Russia, with the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War estimating that Moscow lost about 40 troops for each square mile it seized.

The UK Defense Ministry added in its Tuesday update that Russian monthly losses would likely continue to worsen as the Kremlin fights on multiple fronts, often sending infantry on foot to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.

The strategy, while producing limited results, has heightened perceptions that the war hinges more than ever on either Ukraine or Russia's ability to sustain their resources on the battlefield.

Questions now hang over American aid to Kyiv, with President-elect Donald Trump, who repeatedly said he wants a swift resolution to the war, set to take office on January 20.

But a chief worry for both sides is also manpower. Ukraine has been struggling to replenish its ranks as the war drags on, pivoting in 2024 to a now much-criticized system of creating fresh brigades instead of reinforcing existing ones.

Meanwhile, Russia has been sticking to mass recruitment by offering large bonuses to new soldiers. In December, it announced that it was pouring $126 billion, or about 32.5% of its federal budget for 2025, into defense spending.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

• A Russian attack submarine that was stationed in Syria has officially left the Mediterranean Sea.
• The departure of the Kilo-class Novorossiysk leaves Russia without any known submarines in the region.
• The uncertain fate of Russia's naval presence in Syria amid other setbacks could spell trouble for its submarine force.

Strategic Russian naval bases have been upended by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, creating headaches for the Kremlin's navy, including its submarine force.

Moscow no longer appears to have any attack submarines in the Mediterranean Sea after NATO forces spotted its last known submarine leaving the region last week.

Portugal's military said that it observed a Russian Kilo-class submarine moving through the country's continental exclusive economic zone near northern Spain on Friday. NATO Maritime Command later identified the vessel as the Novorossiysk.

The Novorossiysk was spotted several weeks earlier at Tartus, a naval base in Syria that Russia had used for years. The future of Moscow's military footprint at the facility — and in the country in general — was, however, thrown into uncertainty after the shocking collapse of the Assad regime last month.

There are indications that Russia is drawing down forces at its bases in Syria. Losing Tartus for good would be a significant blow to Moscow's navy — including its capable submarine force — which relies on the warm-water port to project power across the region and beyond.

Early December satellite imagery showed the Novorossiysk docked in Tartus, but by the middle of the month, it was gone, along with the rest of the Russian warships that had been there. Some of the Russian naval vessels have been spotted in recent weeks loitering off the Syrian coast, but the whereabouts of this submarine were less certain.

Should Syria's new leadership decide Russia can no longer station its forces at Tartus, it would mark another setback for Moscow's navy, which has suffered a string of stunning losses in the nearby Black Sea since the start of the full-scale Ukraine war nearly three years ago.

Ukrainian forces have used missiles and naval drones to damage or destroy dozens of Russian naval vessels, including one of six improved Kilo-class submarines Moscow's Black Sea Fleet operates, during the conflict.

These attacks have forced Moscow to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from its long-held headquarters in Sevastopol, a major city in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula, across the region to the port of Novorossiysk along western Russia's coast. If Russia is unable to move back into Sevastopol, that creates complications.

For Russia, losing the ability to keep submarines at Sevastopol and Tartus is less than ideal.

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, said that the remainder of the Kilo-class vessels are based in St. Petersburg, where there is a large naval facility and dry docks for maintenance.

"The Russians are now having to redeploy their submarine force back up to the north" instead of relying on warm-water ports that "you could get in and out of them year-round," Clark told Business Insider. "St. Petersburg, you can't get in and out of year-round."

Recent developments also seriously undermine Russia's military influence in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Clark said.

The Novorossiysk is a newer improved Kilo sub. Submarines of this class are diesel-electric vessels and formidable long-range strike platforms that can attack ships and land targets, deploy for weeks on end, and stay relatively undetected. They are effectively Russia's most capable non-nuclear subs and can carry Kalibr missiles.

Russia has kept a Kilo-class vessel in the region for years. The boat's departure from the region, though Russia could ultimately opt to move another sub into the area later, may signal a broader decline in Russian naval might in the Mediterranean.

In four years, Russia appears to have gone "from being a pretty big player in the Med — in terms of naval forces — to now being a nonexistent player," Clark said.

Russia's basing challenges could ultimately hinder its ability to project power. The uncertainty with Tartus and nearby Hmeimim Air Base — underscores a broader issue for the Russian military.

Satellite imagery captured on Monday by Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, shows no obvious signs of any major Russian naval vessels at Tartus, as has been the case for weeks. Ukraine's military intelligence agency has said Russia is withdrawing from the base.

Whether Moscow is able to negotiate an arrangement with the new Syrian leadership to stay in the country or is forced to relocate to a new hub in North Africa to sustain its operations remains to be seen.

• Trump wouldn't rule out using military force to take Greenland and retake the Panama Canal.
• The president-elect made the remarks during a major press conference just days before his 2nd term.
• Denmark has emphatically stated that Greenland isn't for sale.

President-elect Donald Trump isn't ruling out using military force in an effort to gain control of Greenland and retake control of the Panama Canal.

During a Tuesday press conference, Trump was asked if he'd assure the world that he wouldn't use military or economic coercion to secure the sovereign territory and the vital waterway, respectively.

The president-elect in his response reinforced the critical economic importance that he sees in Greenland and the Panama Canal.

"I can't assure you," he said. "I'm not going to commit to that. It might be that you'll have to do something."

"We need Greenland for national security purposes," he continued. "People don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it. But if they do, they should give it up."

Late last year, Trump spoke about possibly taking back control of the Panama Canal from Panama as well as his wish to secure Greenland from Denmark. He also floated buying Greenland in 2019.

Trump during Tuesday's press conference also threatened to "tariff Denmark at a very high level" if the country didn't give up control of Greenland.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark earlier on Tuesday said that "Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders," adding that the strategic Arctic island is "not for sale."

Greenland is a Danish colony, though it has had self-rule since 1979. Greenland could declare its independence but would need to hold a formal vote first. Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede said recently that it was "time to take the next step for our country," hinting at the possibility of a referendum this year.

As for the Panama Canal, the Carter Administration signed a treaty in 1977 that began a process that led to Panama taking full control of the canal in 1999. Last month, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino said in a statement that his nation controls "every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area."

Shortly after, Trump responded on Truth Social by stating, "We'll see about that," and then posted a photo with the caption, "Welcome to the United States Canal!"

Business Insider has reached out to representatives of Trump for comment.

• A UK-led coalition is using AI to track Russia's shadow fleet, the British Ministry of Defence said.
• The operation, involving 10 countries, comes after damage to major undersea cables in the Baltic.
• Finland said evidence suggests a Russia-linked ship dragged its anchor to sever the cables.

A UK-led coalition of European countries has deployed AI to track Russia's shadow fleet and detect possible threats to underwater cables, after suspected sabotage incidents in recent months.

On Monday, the UK's Ministry of Defence said that the Joint Expeditionary Force's operation, dubbed Nordic Warden, has been using AI to evaluate data from several sources, including the Automatic Identification System, which ships use to share their real-time locations.

In the event of a potential threat, it said the system would monitor the suspect vessel in real time and issue a warning, which will be communicated to both NATO allies and participating countries.

The UK's Defense Secretary John Healey said AI would allow them to monitor "large" sea areas using a "comparatively" small number of resources.

"Nordic Warden will help protect against both deliberate acts of sabotage as well as cases of extreme negligence which we have seen cause damage to underwater cable," Healey added.

The UK MOD didn't respond to a request for comment, but in its news release said that there were 22 areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, the North Sea, the Kattegat Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

It said the operation's launch came after reported damage to a major undersea cable in the Baltic.

Over the past two months, several undersea cables in the Baltic Sea have been damaged, including the BCS East-West Interlink cable, the C-Lion1 telecommunications cable linking Finland and Germany, and the Estlink 2 electricity cable connecting Estonia and Finland.

Last week, Finnish officials said they found a 60-mile trail on the seabed that suggested the Eagle S — a Russia-linked tanker — could have been responsible for slicing a cluster of valuable data and power cables.

Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former NATO official, told BI that AI will help NATO identify suspicious ships among the vast majority of legitimate commercial activity in the region.

Neither Russia's shadow fleet nor any other country for that matter, "even the Chinese," can afford to lose ship after ship trying to damage cables, he said, pointing to Finland's seizure of a Russian-linked vessel last week.

"Russia needs its shadow fleet," he added, "that's how it earns its oil export revenues."

• Iran's military power and influence has been badly weakened in recent months.
• Clashes with Israel and the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria have left it reeling.
• Yet Iran retains the ability to hurt the US and its allies.

Last May, Iran's then-president took a victory lap during the first visit by an Iranian leader to Syria since 2010.

Ebrahim Raisi praised key ally Bashar Assad for his "victory," having beaten back rebel forces with Iranian and Russian help, and for defying sanctions to hold on to power.

Less than a year later, the picture looks much grimmer for Iran's foreign influence, not just in Syria but across the wider region.

Assad was deposed after a lightning campaign by rebels in December, and Western officials on Tuesday told The Wall Street Journal that Syria had withdrawn most of its troops from the country that was once at the heart of its strategy to project power across the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Syria's most powerful regional proxies, the Hamas militia in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have also been decimated in their clashes with Israel in the wake of the October 7, 2023, terror attacks.

Israel also inflicted serious damage on Iran's air defenses in strikes last October.

As a result, President-elect Donald Trump looks set to face off against an Iran, a longtime US adversary, that's weaker than it's been in decades.

A weaker Iran

"Iran has had a number of setbacks in the last year," Jon Alterman, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, told BI.

"Its network of regional proxies is in shambles, with its most important — Hezbollah — the hardest hit. The billions of dollars that Iran invested in Syria over several decades went up in smoke," he added.

In fact, "it is hard to point to a single trend that has been moving in their direction for months," Alterman said.

For decades, Iran has pursued its core goals of damaging US influence, challenging Saudi Arabian power, and encircling Israel by building a network of militias and allies across the region.

These groups, which also include the Houthi militia in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq, were dubbed by Iran the "Axis of Resistance."

But across the region, they're on the back foot in the wake of attacks by Israel and its allies. Most recently, Israel and the US have struck Houthi targets in Yemen.

"Instead of surrounding Israel, Tehran probably feels surrounded by countries hostile to it," Mathew Burrows, Counselor in the Executive Office at the Stimson Center, Washington, DC, told BI.

"Iran's containment strategy against Israel is in tatters," he added.

Troubles at home

Domestically, things are not much better.

Iran's economy has been crippled by punishing international sanctions, not least those imposed by Trump in his first term in office as part of his "maximum pressure" campaign.

Sanctions were linked to Iran's decision to turn off energy supplies across vast swaths of the country in December.

The value of Iran's currency, the Riyal, has also plunged, and inflation is running at 30%.

Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, Iran faces a host of issues.

Its most powerful international allies, Russia and China, are unable or unwilling to help, said Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at Birmingham University in the UK.

"Russia has a much-diminished stature in the region now," he said.

Russia was considered a key backer of Assad, but stretched by its war in Ukraine, it seemed unable to help, beyond flying him and his family out of the country.

China, though it's playing a more assertive role in the Middle East, also appears unwilling to get directly embroiled in Iran's conflicts.

"Over a relatively short period, Iran's losses have been substantial," Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at London's RUSI think tank, told BI.

And now it has to contend with a new Trump administration.

The return of Trump

Trump imposed waves of sanctions on Iran during his first term in office.

He also ordered the assassination of Iranian military commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in 2020, and under the Abraham Accords sought to normalize ties between Israel and Gulf Arab states.

In his second term, Trump could seek to tighten his maximum pressure strategy by undermining Iranian influence in Iraq, where it controls a network of militias.

"With Hamas and Hezbollah downgraded, and the Houthi movement in Yemen under pressure, it makes sense that next in line will be Iraq," said Ozcelik.

"This could empower Iraqi institutions and sovereignty in the face of exponentially expanding Iranian influence," she added.

But while Iran may be down, it's far from out.

Its allies, including the Houthi and Hezbollah, though weakened, will likely rebuild. Iran may also seek to stoke conflict to destabilize the new government in Syria, and it continues to have a sophisticated military and intelligence apparatus.

And, according to analysts, it retains the capacity to develop the most dangerous weapons of all — a nuclear bomb.

After the Obama administration's nuclear deal was abandoned by Trump, Iran quietly began gearing up its nuclear program again, and some experts believe it could develop enough material for a weapon in a matter of months.

"Some analysts think Iran's weakness will push it to accelerate efforts to develop a nuclear weapon to compensate, or at least to threaten doing so to improve Iran's leverage in negotiations," said Alterman.

"The only real weapon in the short term is the nuclear one," said Burrows.

A major challenge for Trump will be figuring out how to stop it getting one.

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Alexander Lukashenko apologized in a call for helping Russia invade Ukraine.
• "I am not in charge," Zelenskyy quoted the Belarusian leader as saying in early 2022.
• Lukashenko's spokesperson denied that an apology took place but confirmed that a call happened.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Belarus' leader, Alexander Lukashenko, apologized over the phone in early 2022 for his country's role in allowing Russia to invade Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview with the podcaster Lex Fridman published on Sunday, Zelenskyy recalled the war's first moments, saying that he and his wife were woken up by missile strikes at 4 a.m. local time.

"My children were asleep, but my wife was awake. There were strikes. Missile strikes, we heard them," Zelenskyy said, according to a translation provided by Fridman.

"And later, by the way, a few days after, after the first days of the war, I spoke with Lukashenko on the phone," Zelenskyy added.

Zelenskyy recounted the conversation, in his words, proceeding in this fashion:

And he apologized. And he said that: "It was not me. Missiles were launched from my territory, and Putin was the one launching them."

These are his words. I have witnesses.

"And I apologize," he said. "But believe me. Volodya, this is not me. I am not in charge. I am not in charge," he told me. "These are just missiles. This is Putin. I told him don't do that. This was done without me."

I told him that I believed him. I told him, "You are a murderer too, I'm just saying."

And he told me, "You must understand, you can't fight the Russians."

I told him that we never fought them. I said: "It's war, the missiles came from your land, from Belarus. How did you allow this?"

Zelenskyy also said Lukashenko suggested in his apology that Ukraine should strike an oil refinery in Belarus in retaliation.

"Hit the refinery, you know how much I care about it," Zelenskyy quoted Lukashenko as saying.

Lukashenko's spokesperson denied on Monday that the Belarusian leader apologized to Zelenskyy.

"The President of Belarus did not apologize to Zelensky for the simple reason that we have nothing to apologize for," Natalia Eismont, Lukashenko's press secretary, told the pro-Kremlin Russian outlet RBC News.

Eismont confirmed that a phone call between Zelenskyy and Lukashenko took place days after the war began. She added, however, that the Belarusian leader had instead admonished Zelenskyy and blamed the latter's policies for the conflict during the call.

Eismont said Lukashenko's youngest son connected the two leaders for the call because he'd saved Zelenskyy's personal contact information on his mobile phone.

Belarus has maintained close ties to Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and Lukashenko, its leader since 1994, has long been a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Lukashenko hosted some 30,000 Russian troops, as well as weapons and armored vehicles, in early 2022. The Russian forces massed on Belarus' border with Ukraine and eventually invaded the Kyiv region from the north.

Belarus, a transit country for Russian energy to European countries, is heavily reliant on trade with Moscow, especially after Western sanctions in 2022 stifled about 70% of Minsk's exports to the European Union.

Lukashenko's government has said Russia contributes to more than half of Belarus' trade, while German researchers estimated in the first year of the Ukraine war that the Russian share of Belarusian trade had surpassed 60%.

Lukashenko's press service didn't respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

• Perceptions of weakness dogged Jimmy Carter's presidency and legacy.
• Carter inherited a struggling economy and a US military adrift after Vietnam.
• But his administration played key parts in countering the Soviets and rising extremism.

When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, the man who received the most credit was Ronald Reagan. The Republican president's bellicose policies and tough rhetoric — he called it an "evil empire" — were seen as ultimately forcing the Soviets into an arms race they couldn't afford. And Reagan seemed particularly strong compared to his predecessor, Jimmy Carter.

Almost from the start of his Democratic administration in 1977, Carter was criticized for being weak on national security. Never mind that he was an Annapolis graduate who served as a US Navy submarine officer, including being selected for duty on new nuclear-powered submarines. But these perceptions of his supposed weakness bear revisiting after his December 29 death, as Carter played key roles in countering the Soviets and Islamist extremists in the Middle East.

Carter — along with his predecessor Gerald Ford — had the misfortune of inheriting a national security mess. The US military of the late 1970s was called the "hollow force:" Strong on paper but crippled by poor readiness, racial tensions, and unmotivated recruits who dabbled in drugs as the armed forces shifted to an all-volunteer force.

Battered by inflation, soaring gas prices, and the lingering trauma of Vietnam, the American public was not inclined toward more war or defense spending. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union appeared to be at the height of its power, as Moscow fielded new missiles and tanks, and Soviet and Cuban forces intervened in the Angolan Civil War.

Carter entered the White House with a moralist vision of foreign policy, the polar opposite of Richard Nixon's and Henry Kissinger's realpolitik. He wanted to emphasize human rights and international cooperation. But like previous high-minded presidents such as Harry S. Truman, he evolved into more of a hawk.

Though he had campaigned in 1976 on a pledge to cut the defense budget, Carter oversaw a defense buildup that by 1980 called for a 14% annual budget increase (actually closer to 5% after inflation). This included new M1 tanks, cargo planes, a new ICBM (the MX, which was eventually canceled), and higher pay for military personnel.

He also canceled what he saw as boondoggles, such as the B-1 bomber. He also ended the controversial neutron bomb project, a small nuclear weapon that produced more radiation than blast, and which detractors saw as the ultimate capitalist weapon (it "seems desirable to those who worry about property and hold life cheap," warned science-fiction author Isaac Asimov).

In the pre-green energy days of the 1970s, securing the West's oil supply was paramount. Worried that 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan created a springboard for a Soviet invasion through Iran and Afghanistan to the oil-rich Persian Gulf, Carter laid down the "Carter Doctrine."

"Let our position be absolutely clear," Carter warned in his State of the Union address on Jan. 23, 1980. "An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."

The Carter administration created the Rapid Deployment Force, which could be dispatched to any crisis zone in the world (though it was really aimed at the Persian Gulf). On paper, it seemed a powerful force: the 82nd Airborne and 101st Airmobile Divisions, a Marine division and "light" Army divisions, all backed by Navy carriers and Air Force fighter wings. Yet critics questioned how rapid the RDF could be given limited transport capacity, and wondered how lightly armed paratroopers and Marines would fare in the desert against Soviet armor.

Carter sought strategic arms control through the SALT II treaty with the Soviet Union (he asked the Senate not to ratify the treaty after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan). Yet after Moscow deployed SS-20 intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Eastern Europe, Carter responded by calling for both diplomacy — and US Pershing II missiles to be stationed in Western Europe.

Carter's critics lambasted his emphasis on human rights, such as the Helsinki Accords, as hopelessly naive. Yet a focus on human rights spurred dissidents, such as the Solidarity movement in Poland, that ultimately weakened the Soviet empire. The Camp David Accords, which brokered peace between Israel and Egypt, dampened Soviet influence in the Middle East and turned Moscow's former client Egypt into an American ally.

In the end, Carter fell victim to the perception that he was a weak president. His biggest albatross was Iran's 444-day seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran: even when Carter authorized a risky rescue mission, the botched operation to free 52 Americans failed.

Against a vigorous and masterful communicator like Ronald Reagan, who touted military strength and confrontation with the Soviet Union as more than a necessity but a virtue, Carter appeared lacking. He was defeated by a landslide in the 1980 election.

There were many reasons why the Soviet Union collapsed. The biggest cause was the decrepit Soviet economy; Mikhail Gorbachev and the new generation of Soviet leaders recognized it was not sustainable, but failed to reform it in time.

To say that Jimmy Carter — or Ronald Reagan — were instrumental by themselves in defeating the Soviet Union would be an exaggeration. It is more accurate to say that Carter continued a tradition — dating back to Truman and the early days of the Cold War — of confronting the Soviet threat. Carter doesn't deserve all the credit, but he deserves his share.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.