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Newly ignited L.A. fire triggers evacuation orders for over 100,000 in Hollywood

A fresh Los Angeles wildfire that ignited in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday night is threatening homes and iconic L.A. landmarks, and it's prompted authorities to issue expanding evacuation orders.

The big picture: The rapidly growing Sunset Fire that's threatening Hollywood landmarks along with homes was one of multiple fires burning out of control across Los Angeles County on Wednesday night.


  • Five deaths were confirmed in one of the blazes which have razed at least 1,000 structures, including the homes of Hollywood actor Billy Crystal and media personality Paris Hilton, and forced tens of thousands of resients to evacuate.

State of play: The fire started at 5:57pm local time and by 9:25pm had grown to an estimated 60 acres near Runyon Canyon, only a few miles from the Hollywood Boulevard and the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

  • There were reports of heavily congested roads in the densely populated area as residents raced to flee the out-of-control Sunset Fire and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass said on X she's "deploying LAPD officers to respond to Hollywood to help alleviate evacuation traffic."
  • Officials were "working urgently to close roads, redirect traffic and expand access for LAFD vehicles to respond to the growing fire," she added.
  • The number of those affected by evacuation orders is estimated to be over 100,000.
  • The Hollywood Bowl confirmed on X that the iconic amphitheater and public park was among those impacted by evacuation orders.
Screenshot: Hollywood Bowl/X

Go deeper: LA's wildfires sparked by rare collision of climate factors

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Here's the one question that Accenture's CEO asks potential staff to see if they make the cut

Accenture CEO Julie Sweet attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Accenture CEO Julie Sweet said that when it comes to hiring, she looks for candidates who are interested in learning new things.

Halil Sagirkaya/Anadolu via Getty Images

  • Accenture CEO Julie Sweet said she looks for candidates who love to learn new things.
  • Sweet said in a podcast interview that she would ask people what they have learned recently.
  • The former lawyer said it didn't matter even if people just said they learned how to bake a cake.

Accenture CEO Julie Sweet said there's one key question she poses to people who want to work for her.

"There's one question that we ask everyone, regardless of you're a consultant or you're working in technology or whatever you do," Sweet said in an interview with Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen on his "In Good Company" podcast, which aired Wednesday.

"We say, 'What have you learned in the last six months?'" she added.

Asking this question, Sweet told Tangen, is a practical way for her to determine if candidates are interested in learning new things.

"If someone can't answer that question, and by the way, we don't care if it's 'I learned to bake a cake,' if they can't answer that question, then we know that they're not a learner," Sweet said.

This wouldn't be the first time Sweet has talked about her expectations for new hires at Accenture. The consulting firm said on its website that it employs around 799,000 employees and operates in more than 200 cities.

The former lawyer said in a 2019 interview with The New York Times that she looks for candidates who demonstrate two main traits.

"The first is curiosity. The new normal is continuous learning, and we look for people who demonstrate lots of different interests and really demonstrate curiosity," Sweet told The Times.

"The second piece is leadership. I don't care what level you are, there is the need to offer straight talk when you're working with clients. You have to have the courage to deliver tough messages," she added.

Representatives for Sweet at Accenture did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Sweet isn't the only C-suite executive who places a premium on learning.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that students should devote their time to learning and reading, and less time on social-media platforms like TikTok and Facebook.

Dimon was speaking at the Georgetown Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy's annual Financial Markets Quality Conference in September when he was asked if he had any advice for the students in attendance.

"My advice to students: Learn, learn, learn, learn, learn, learn, learn. If you're Democrat, read the Republican opinion, the good ones. If you're Republican, read the Democrat ones," Dimon said.

"Read history books. You can't make it up. Nelson Mandela, Abe Lincoln, Sam Walton. You only learn by reading and talking to other people. There's no other way," he continued.

Read the original article on Business Insider

A top Iranian general said Russia was actually bombing the empty desert while saying it was attacking Syrian rebels

Russian leader Vladimir Putin holds a telephone to his ear, former Syrian leader Bashar Assad smiles during a visit from Iranian leadership in 2023.
Iranian Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati partially blamed Russia for the fall of the Syrian government under Bashar Assad, pictured on the right.

ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images and Borna News/Matin Ghasemi/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images

  • Behrouz Esbati, an Iranian general, partially blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria.
  • In a speech in Tehran, Esbati accused Russia of bombing an empty desert instead of hitting Syrian rebels.
  • While difficult to verify, his frank remarks are notable since Russia is one of Iran's strongest allies.

A top Iranian general has accused Russia of lying to Tehran by saying its jets were attacking Syrian rebels while they were instead bombing the open desert.

In a rare break from Iran's diplomatic line on Syria, Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati partially blamed Moscow for the fall of Bashar Assad's government during a speech at a mosque in Tehran.

An audio recording of the speech was published on Tuesday by Abdullah Abdi, a Geneva-based journalist who reports on Iran.

"We were defeated, and defeated very badly, we took a very big blow and it's been very difficult," Esbati said of Assad's fall, per a translation by The New York Times.

In the recording, Esbati, a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Russia told Tehran it was bombing the headquarters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group spearheading Assad's ousting.

But Moscow's forces were instead "targeting deserts," Esbati said.

Esbati further accused Russia of turning off radars when Israel launched strikes on Syria in 2024, allowing Tel Aviv's forces to attack more effectively.

The general also largely blamed internal corruption for Assad's fall, saying that bribery was rife among Syria's top-ranking officials and generals.

He added that relations between Damascus and Tehran grew tense over the last year because Assad refused an Iranian request to facilitate attacks on Israel through Syria.

Business Insider could not independently verify Esbati's claims. But they represent an exceptionally frank assessment among Iran's top ranks of its position in Syria, where a new political leadership is still coalescing in Assad's absence.

Iran officially held a much milder tone as Assad's government fell, saying at the time that the fate of Syria would be up to its people and that it "will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria."

Assad, a longtime ally of both Iran and Russia, fled Damascus in early December as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces stormed toward the capital from the northwest. International observers believe that the rebel advance largely happened as Moscow, a key source of military strength for Assad, found its resources stretched thin by the war in Ukraine.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

Esbati's remarks came as a former senior aide to Assad told the Saudi government-owned outlet Al Arabiya on Monday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had stalled military assistance for Syria.

Kamel Saqr said that Assad had asked Putin to personally approve airlifting military aid to Syria β€” and that the Russian leader agreed.

The aid was to be transported via Iranian aircraft, but Saqr said that Tehran told Assad it did not receive any requests from Moscow.

Assad then asked Moscow about this, but "no answer came," Saqr said.

Assad's fall, which neither Moscow nor Tehran stepped up to prevent, has brought deep implications for Russia's forces in the region. Moscow had previously relied on an airbase and a naval base, which it maintained under a deal with Assad, for its operations in Africa and the Mediterranean.

It's unclear if Russia will eventually be able to continue maintaining those two facilities, but reports show that it's preparing to move much of its equipment out of Syria. On January 3, Ukraine said that Moscow was planning to move its assets to Libya.

Read the original article on Business Insider

LA fires could hit $50 billion or more in damages. They're shaping up to be the most expensive in state history.

A house is on fire from the Eaton Fire in the Altadena neighborhood in January
The LA wildfires may cost up to $57 billion in damages and losses, Accuweather said in an early estimate.

Nick Ut/Getty Images

  • The Los Angeles wildfires could cause up to $57 billion in damage, Accuweather estimates.
  • The fires are destroying expensive real estate in Santa Monica, Malibu, and other neighborhoods.
  • Insurance providers like State Farm pulled new coverage before the fire due to catastrophe risks.

The Los Angeles wildfires could cost between $52 billion and $57 billion in damages and economic losses, according to a preliminary estimate from weather forecasting service Accuweather.

The wildfires tearing through Santa Monica and Malibu, among other areas, are destroying some of the country's most expensive real estate, where median home values exceed $2 million, Accuweather said in a release on Wednesday. Wildfires in the Los Angeles Pacific Palisades neighborhood have destroyed the homes of celebrities including Paris Hilton and have evacuated actors Mark Hamill and James Woods.

The cost estimates include damages to homes and businesses, as well as negative impacts on tourism and health from smoke inhalation, Accuweather said. Property that has not been destroyed by the fire may also have smoke or water damage.

The company said that the estimate is early and may change as some areas have not reported damages and injuries.

"This is likely to end up being one of the most expensive wildfires in modern California history and it will also be one of the most damaging in terms of the numbers of structures that have been destroyed,"Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist, said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the company declined further comment.

The last major disaster was the Camp Fire, which destroyed Paradise, Califronia in 2018. German insurance company Munich Re estimated it caused overall losses of $16.5 billion.

"These fires will likely be the costliest in history, not the deadliest, and that is the only silver lining right now," Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA told LAList.

Five people have been reported dead and 100,000 were told to evacuate.

Health costs could stem from the inhalation of hazardous air from the burning of homes, vehicles, chemicals, and fuels.

Property insurance providers, such as State Farm, pulled new California homeowners' insurance services in 2023, citing risks from catastrophes. Last year, the company said it would end coverage for 72,000 homes and apartments in the state for the same reason.

Five separate fires hit the city and its region in recent days. High winds have hampered emergency services' responses.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Justice Alito spoke with Trump hours before Supreme Court filing on hush-money sentencing

Justice Samuel Alito spoke with President-elect Trump the day before the Republican leader's lawyers asked the Supreme Court to halt Friday's sentencing in his New York hush money case, the judge confirmed Wednesday.

What they're saying: Alito said in a statement first reported by ABC News that he agreed to take the call from Trump on Tuesday afternoon after his former clerk William Levi asked him to recommend him for a job in the incoming administration.


  • "We did not discuss the emergency application he filed today, and indeed, I was not even aware at the time of our conversation that such an application would be filed," Alito said.
  • "We also did not discuss any other matter that is pending or might in the future come before the Supreme Court or any past Supreme Court decisions involving the President-elect."

Why it matters: It's not unusual for justices to give job recommendations for former clerks, but the timing of the call, hours before the filing of an appeal against the conviction of what would be the first-ever criminal sentencing of a living president, drew criticism from advocates who've campaigned for more transparency in courts and raised ethics concerns.

What they're saying: Gabe Roth, executive director of the advocacy group Fix the Court, called the call "an unmistakable breach of protocol," per AP.

  • "No person, no matter who they are, should engage in out-of-court communication with a judge or justice who's considering that person's case."
  • Roth told the New York Times what made the call particularly problematic was recent ethical issues concerning the Supreme Court and especially Alito.

The other side: Carrie Severino, president of the conservative advocacy group JCN, on X called the reaction to Alito's call "the newest manufactured 'ethics' scandal over a simple reference check."

  • She added, "The Left is once again making up fake ethics rules as a way to smear a justice who they despise for authoring the Dobbs opinion and faithfully following the Constitution" β€”Β  in reference to the Supreme Court's majority decision to overturn Roe v Wade and end federal abortion protections.
  • Representatives for Trump and the Supreme Court did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Supreme Court adopts code of conduct for justices amid ethical scrutiny

Two powerful labor groups joining up ahead of the incoming Trump administration

Two of the most powerful labor groups in the country are teaming up, with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) rejoining the AFL-CIO after nearly 20 years apart.

Why it matters: Organized labor is consolidating power ahead of Donald Trump's return to office.


Where it stands: SEIU's 2 million workers will join 12.5 million represented by the AFL-CIO.

  • "We think we will be more powerful than ever as joint forces," AFL-CIO president Liz Shuler told Axios Wednesday afternoon.
  • This reunion has been in the works for nearly two years, SEIU president April Verrett said. The aim was to build enough power to organize workers and push for pro-labor policies.
  • "It's not a reaction to, or a statement about, Trump," she added. But with his return to the White House it is "an affirmation that we're doing the right thing and that now is the time."

Zoom in: SEIU represents many low-wage workers across its three branches β€”Β public sector employees, healthcare workers and those in building services (like janitors).

  • Many are immigrants, including some who are undocumented and at risk under Trump's proposed deportation policies.
  • "It's not just our undocumented or our immigrant workers that are worried about what a Trump administration can bring," says Verrett.
  • There are other issues. About half the union's members depend on Medicaid, she said. Republicans have reportedly been considering cuts to the health insurance program to pay for an extension of the 2017 tax cuts.

Zoom out: The AFL-CIO is a huge federation of unions that includes all kinds of workers, from screen actors to teachers to miners. The organization provides policy and politics support to its affiliates β€”Β so they can focus on organizing and bargaining.

Flashback: SEIU split off from the group 20 years ago, as the service sector was becoming a bigger part of the economy. The unions' leaders had a pretty tense break-up. (The Teamsters also left the AFL-CIO at the time and haven't come back.)

  • At the time, Democrats and union officials worried the schism would weaken the labor movement.
  • Though unions have seen a resurgence recently β€”Β and SEIU has had some big success, with Fight for 15 in particularΒ β€”Β organized labor's power has diminished over the decades.
  • The share of the workforce that is unionized is at historic lows.
  • "This [reunion] means a more unified labor movement," says Patricia Campos-Medina, a former union organizer who is now executive director at Cornell's Worker Institute.

The big picture: During his campaign, Trump positioned himself as an ally to workers. Teamsters president Sean O'Brien spoke at the Republican National Convention, andΒ he's had some influence on the transition team.

  • But both Shuler and Verrett were vocal supporters of vice president Kamala Harris.
  • "SEIU would probably have benefitted from a Harris victory, and probably feels more threatened by a Trump administration than most other unions," says John Logan, a labor historian at San Francisco State University.
  • Most union observers worry that the second Trump administration will follow the same sort of anti-labor roadmap as the first.

What's next: The unions will formally announce the move on Thursday afternoon in advance of a civil rights event in Austin.

Editor's Note: The headlines of this story have been updated to reflect details on the combination.

What to know about Microsoft Azure, the cloud computing platform and computing, networking, and storage services

Four people cluster around a table of laptops in front of several screens displaying Microsoft Azure AI features.
Microsoft Azure is Microsoft's cloud computing competitor to Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud Platform.

Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty Images

  • Microsoft Azure is Microsoft's vaunted cloud computing platform.
  • Azure offers a range of cloud-based solutions for the creation and management of applications.
  • Most Azure products use a pay-as-you-go pricing model, but some products can also be used for free.

Microsoft Azure is Microsoft's cloud computing platform that offers a range of cloud-based computing, networking, and data storage services.

Microsoft Azure boasts "solutions that enable organizations to build, deploy, and manage applications and services through Microsoft's global network of data centers."

Crystal clear, right? Don't worry, we'll break it down for you, but first just to clarify, Azure is indeed a computing platform, not just a storage platform.

In short, Azure lets you do things that require much more processing power than your computer has because the computing is done far from your desk, couch, or that coffee shop table. Now for the longer view.

When was Microsoft Azure created?

The same company that brought you PowerPoint, Word, and more, launched Azure as Windows Azure back in 2010, rebranding it to Microsoft Azure in 2014. With the launch of the company's AI interface Copilot in 2023, using Azure became easier than ever, as the smart chat interface can help less tech-savvy users take advantage of Azure's many uses.

Azure is now used by a plethora of small and large businesses and organizations. Indeed, Azure has become such a valuable platform and suite of services that Microsoft offers certifications in dozens of different Azure features and softwares to help IT professionals, developers, and engineers learn the intricacies.

Azure has become a critical component of Microsoft's business model since its 2010 launch, with executives often boasting of Azure's revenues in earnings calls.

However, Azure has not been immune from the turbulence within the tech industry in the post-pandemic era. Large rounds of Microsoft layoffs tend to be a "when" and not an "if" sort of thing, so it was hardly a great shock when hundreds of Azure employees were laid off in early summer 2024.

The large round of job cuts specifically targeted workers in the Azure for Operators and Mission Engineering departments, and were part of a pattern of layoffs begun in 2023 and expanded in 2024.

Microsoft Azure Services

Azure allows you to use an already immense and ever-growing catalog of services; it would be way too heavy of a lift to cover them all here, so we will showcase a few of the things you can do via this cloud computing platform.

Azure AI Search: This service allows you to conduct advanced, tailored smart searches and build up a vectored database of relevant retrieved information.

Azure Open Datasets: Host and share curated datasets that are honed and refined through machine learning, growing more accurate over time.

Speaker Recognition: This service allows for the ever-improving recognition of speech and integrates spoken words into programming, documents, and more. It is multilingual, of course.

Azure AI Content Safety: Azure can automatically watch out for images, text, and video content that might be inappropriate β€” or simply irrelevant β€” and filter them out of your content.

How much does Microsoft Azure cost?

Most Azure products use a pay-as-you-go model rather than fixed rates for different products or a flat monthly fee. Your costs could be as low as pennies each month for basic cloud storage or the managed hosting of a simple website or well into the thousands of dollars for enterprise-level use of myriad AI-enabled products.

Many Azure products can also be used for free. New users can enjoy 25 services free for 12 months, while others remain free at all times to all people. These include API management, the Azure AI Bot Service, and the Azure AI Metrics Advisor, to name just a few.

Microsoft Azure vs. AWS and Google Cloud

Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the heavy hitter in cloud computing and storage, arguably leading the way in networking, cloud storage, mobile development, and cybersecurity.

Google Cloud Platform GCP is big on data analysis and arguably allows the easiest user experience and more seamless interaction with products created by other brands.

Microsoft Azure, for its part, provides vastly scalable and efficient software products, and it's usually cheaper than Google Cloud or AWS.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Dems' 2024 losses fuel new openness to GOP bills

Fresh off their bruising 2024 losses, Democrats seem to more willing to engage with Republican legislation on issues like immigration and Israel.

Why it matters: The dynamic is putting some "messaging bills" that House Republicans passed in the previous Congress on a path to actually becoming law.


  • The Laken Riley Act is picking up votes from Senate Democrats needed to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
  • The bill would require the detention of undocumented immigrants arrested on theft-related charges and allow states to sue the federal government over crimes committed by immigrants.
  • The legislation received 48 Democratic votes in the House on Wednesday, up from 37 when it was voted on last year. Seven Democrats who previously voted against it flipped to voting for it this week.

What they're saying: "You know, some of us have been talking about this for years," Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) told Axios. He's a centrist, border-district Democrat who voted both times for the bill.

  • "I think after people saw what happened with the election, you definitely are seeing more people realize that what happens at the border is very important to the voters," Cuellar said.
  • Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who is co-sponsoring the bill in the Senate, said Wednesday in a Fox News interview that if the bill can't get the seven Democratic votes it needs to pass the Senate, "that's a reason why we lost."

Yes, but: The election results were not the only factor that drove increased Democratic support for the bill.

  • One House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said some votes flipped because it "was not the same bill as last year" with the removal of language hammering the Biden administration for its immigration policy.
  • Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), a staunch Biden ally, cited that as the reason for him changing his vote.
  • Still, the lawmaker who spoke anonymously also acknowledged: "Clearly the election will have some impact on how members see the world."

Zoom in: That dynamic could play out with a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court for issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

  • Several House Democrats told Axios it is possible the bill could get more Democratic votes than the 42 it received when it passed the House last June.
  • Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said there are "similar learning lessons for the Democratic Party" with each bill, noting that Democrats took a beating on Israel last year.
  • "I think there will be Democrats that will look at it differently now," he said. "If you're asking people to take a side between Israel and the ICC, I think there will be more people than maybe previously that will vote for this."

The bottom line: "These message bills are hard, because the people at home believe the title and don't understand what's in them," said one senior House Democrat.

  • "These are wedge issues, and we've got to really think about them ... it's all very complicated."

Scoop: Schumer's plan to fire back at Trump's Senate nominees

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is privately pressing his senators to create fireworks when they question President-elect Trump's nominees in the coming weeks, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: "Republicans spent four years attacking the Democratic brand and we need to use the hearings to begin returning the favor," Schumer told his top committee Democrats in a meeting on Wednesday afternoon.


  • Schumer told the Democratic caucus in a lunch on Tuesday that they should grill Trump nominees on the MAGA agenda, and what they say it means for the American people.

The big picture: Schumer reminded senators that they have an opportunity to seize the narrative from a GOP that is convinced the public is on its side on the economy, the border and cultural issues.

  • The combative strategy is also an indication that Schumer has decided that there's more political upside in challenging the MAGA movement than finding common ground with it.

What to watch: Expect Democrats to zero in on some of Trump's most high profile nominees as they come through the Senate over the next few weeks.

  • That includes the likes of Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick to lead the Pentagon, and RFK Jr., the GOP nominee for HHS.

US dockworkers struck a deal with their employers, averting a strike that could have crippled shipping

Shipping containers
The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance have struck a deal to avoid a strike.

NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

  • The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance have struck a deal.
  • This deal averted a potential strike involving thousands of dockworkers.
  • The strike would have crippled shipping lines along the East and Gulf Coasts.

The International Longshoremen's Association and the US Maritime Alliance said Wednesday they had agreed on a new six-year master contract.

The two sides said in a joint statement that this will allow them to avoid any work stoppages on January 15.

"This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coast ports β€” making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong," the joint statement read, adding that the deal was a "win-win agreement."

The ILA and USMX said they would get their members to review and approve the agreement before it is released publicly. For now, both sides will continue to operate under their current contract until the terms of the new agreement are ratified via a vote.

The strike would have potentially paralyzed shipping lines along the East and Gulf Coasts.

Details of the agreement were not made public, but the joint statement said dockworkers received some protections against having their jobs replaced by automation, which was one of the union's key concerns.

The ILA had the support of President-elect Donald Trump, who said in a Truth Social post in December that the amount of money saved by automation on US docks was "nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen."

Members of the ILA previously went on strike in October for three days. The strike ended when the union secured higher pay, while other contract negotiations continued, and members returned to work. That agreement provided a 62% pay increase over the next six years.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Inside Trump's closed-door meeting with Senate Republicans

President-elect Trump is leaving the rest of his GOP trifecta hanging on their reconciliation stalemate.

Why it matters: Republican leaders on both sides of the Capitol have no interest in going against Trump. He has the power to quickly end this debate, but that's no closer after Wednesday's meeting with the Senate GOP.


  • Trump pitched the idea of a single "beautiful bill," Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told reporters after the meeting. That's where the momentum is headed, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said.
  • "[H]e heard from us that and from our leader that a two-bill strategy is very much still very interested in," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) told reporters.

But Trump keeps making it clear: He really doesn't care about the process.

  • That apparent indifference on this key question will force the House and Senate to attempt to resolve their differences among themselves.

Inside the room: Trump went over some of his early executive order plans, two sources in the room told Axios.

  • Stephen Miller walked through the Day 1 immigration orders in detail, three sources told Axios. On his list is reimplementing Title 42, the pandemic-era rule that allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border.
  • About a dozen senators spoke during the meeting, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) giving the most passionate defense of the two-bill strategy, two sources told Axios.
  • Trump invited the senators and their spouses to Mar-a-Lago, but didn't name a date, two sources told us. Axios scooped his plans for a Senate bash last night.

The bottom line: If the one bill versus two question is hard, agreeing to a topline number should be a real treat.

P.S. Top Trump campaign staffer Alex Latcham will be executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, with former Sen. Cory Gardner serving as CEO and chairman of the board, Axios scooped on Wednesday.

The bond market is sending a warning to Trump and Congress

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Axios Visuals

The multitrillion-dollar bond market is sending a message to President-elect Trump and the new Congress: There is no fiscal free lunch to be had.

Why it matters: A surge in longer-term borrowing costs over the last couple of months may reflect deepening concern about high fiscal deficits among global investors who buy U.S. government debt.


  • Regardless of the cause, it implies that as Republicans seek to extend Trump's tax cuts beyond this year, markets will pressure them to find spending cuts or other deficit-reducing offsets.

Driving the news: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes reached 4.71% Wednesday morning, up from 3.62% in mid-September.

  • Bloomberg cites evidence from futures markets that traders are positioning themselves for protection if rates were to rise further, to north of 5%.

The intrigue: This upward shift in longer-term rates has come despite a full percentage point of Fed interest rate cuts since September β€” with most Fed officials expecting a couple more rate cuts this year.

  • It is a reminder that while the Fed controls short-term interest rates, longer-term rates are set in the bond market based on the outlook for inflation, growth, deficits and more.
  • The details of why long-term rates are on the rise are important. This surge in rates has mostly not been driven by a changing inflation outlook, at least based on the relative prices of inflation-protected bonds.
  • What appears to be happening is a rise in the "term premium," the compensation investors demand for the risk of buying longer-term debt.

State of play: It is impossible to know for sure why the term premium moves as it does, and technical factors around supply and demand for bonds are likely in play. But investor wariness of looming deficits is a textbook reason.

  • Asked about the rise in yields at an event in Paris this morning, Fed governor Christopher Waller noted "more and more attention, concern about fiscal deficits."
  • Waller also affirmed that he expects further Fed rate cuts to be justified this year, and said he doesn't expect tariffs to have a "significant or persistent effect on inflation."

What they're saying: "The market is telling us something, and it is very important for investors to have a view on why long rates are going up when the Fed is cutting," writes Apollo's Torsten Slok, noting it is a "highly unusual" situation.

Between the lines: Regardless of exactly why yields have surged, the fact that they have points to a very different macroeconomic environment than the nation faced eight years ago, when Republicans passed sweeping tax cuts in the first Trump term.

  • In January 2017, the 10-year yield was a mere 2.4%.
  • Borrowing costs are now meaningfully higher than forecast in the Congressional Budget Office's most recent projections. CBO's June budget forecasts assumed the 10-year yield would be 4.1% in 2025 and lower thereafter.

The bottom line: With rates higher, any given deficit-expanding policy will come at a higher cost β€” in terms of interest expense and higher rates β€” than it did when Trump was last in the Oval Office.

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