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Trump names former El Salvador ambassador Ron Johnson as choice for Mexico envoy

10 December 2024 at 18:46

Former U.S. ambassador to El Salvador Ronald Johnson has been tapped by President-elect Trump to serve as ambassador to Mexico in his upcoming administration.

Like many of his picks, Trump announced the news on his Truth Social network.Β 

"Ron will work closely with our great Secretary of State Nominee, Marco Rubio, to promote our Nation’s security and prosperity through strong America First Foreign Policies," he wrote.Β 

TRUMP'S PROPOSED TARIFFS ON MEXICO, CANADA, CHINA WILL INCREASE INFLATION, GOLDMAN SACHS WARNS

"During my First Term, Ron served as the Ambassador to El Salvador, where he worked tirelessly with Salvadoran authorities and our team to reduce violent crime and illegal migration to the lowest levels in History," he added.Β 

Johnson, a former official with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and U.S. Army Green Beret, would serve in one of the high-profile diplomatic posts in the Trump administration.Β 

TRUMP TARIFFS WILL BRING MEXICO TO THE TABLE, TEXAS DEMOCRAT SAYS

Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs on Mexico if it doesn't do more to prevent the flow of illegal immigrants and illegal drugs across the southern border. He's also threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and China as well.Β 

In his announcement, Trump said Johnson would help put an end to "migrant crime, stop the illegal flow of Fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into our Country and, MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN!"

Six human smugglers arrested in connection to 2021 crash that killed dozens

10 December 2024 at 13:10

Authorities have arrested six Guatemalan human smugglers linked to a 2021 semi-truck crash that killed more than 50 migrants and injured more than 100, the Department of Justice announced this week.

This comes three years after the tragic accident that occurred in Chiapas, Mexico, which killed and maimed scores of migrants, including children.

Four of the Guatemalan nationals – Tomas Quino Canil, 36; Alberto Marcario Chitic, 31; Oswaldo Manuel Zavala Quino, 24; and Josefa Quino Canil De Zavala, 42 – were arrested by Guatemalan law enforcement and surrendered to U.S. authorities.

Another smuggler – Jorge Agapito Ventura, 32 – was taken into custody by U.S. law enforcement at his home in Cleveland, Texas. The name of the sixth smuggler was blacked out in court documents from the federal court in Texas.

According to Guatemalan Interior Minister Francisco JimΓ©nez, the smugglers are part of a Guatemalan criminal group called "Los Quinos." All six were indicted in connection with the crash in a federal court for the Southern District of Texas.Β 

INCOMING MISSOURI STATE LAWMAKER INTRODUCES BILL TO GIVE $1K TO ANYONE WHO TURNS IN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS

According to the indictment, all six smugglers conspired between October 2021 and February 2023 to facilitate the travel of migrants from Guatemala through Mexico with the United States as the intended destination.

The indictment alleges that the smugglers recruited Guatemalan migrants to enter the U.S. illegally, collected payments from them and even distributed written scripts to migrant children on what to say if apprehended by U.S. immigration authorities.

During the journey, the smugglers moved the migrants on foot and on buses, cattle trucks and trailers.

On Dec. 9, 2021, migrants being transported by the smugglers in a trailer crashed into a steel pedestrian bridge near a small town called Tuxtla Gutierrez, resulting in more than 50 deaths.

MIGRANT CRIME WAVE DURING BIDEN-HARRIS ADMIN UNDER SCRUTINY AMID SERIES OF ASSAULTS, MURDERS: A TIMELINE

Rescue workers discovered the crash with migrants inside the cargo trailer tossed and crushed in a pile of both the living and the dead. The trailer had been loaded with around 200 migrants.

In a statement released this week, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said: "Human smugglers should heed these charges and arrests as a warning: you will be held accountable for your deadly crimes."

"The Justice Department is holding accountable the individuals who we allege preyed on vulnerable migrants and are responsible for this heinous crime that resulted in the deaths of over 50 people and injured over 100 more," said Garland. "We will continue to work across agencies and across borders to stop the scourge of human smuggling."

MIGRANT ACCUSED OF SEX CRIMES AGAINST CHILD ARRESTED AFTER DETAINER REQUEST IGNORED, ICE SAYS

U.S. Attorney Alamdar Hamdani for the Southern District of Texas said that "while this crash transpired beyond our borders, it is imperative that the pursuit of justice transcends those boundaries."

"Today, we reiterate our commitment to ensuring that those allegedly responsible for exploiting the vulnerabilities of families seeking refuge and opportunity face the full force of the law," said Hamdani.

The six are being charged with conspiracy to bring undocumented aliens to the United States, placing life in jeopardy, causing serious bodily injuries and causing death. The penalties for these crimes include death or imprisonment up to life.Β 

A passenger on a Mexican domestic flight tried to force it to land in the US

By: Pete Syme
9 December 2024 at 04:19
A Volaris airlines
The incident occurred on a Volaris plane (not pictured).

AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images

  • A passenger on a Mexican domestic flight tried to force it to divert to the US on Sunday.
  • The incident occurred on a Volaris flight from El BajΓ­o to Tijuana.
  • A witness told Fox 5 San Diego he saw a man grab a flight attendant and hold a pen against her neck.

A passenger on a Mexican domestic flight tried to force the aircraft to divert to the US, the airline, Volaris, said.

Volaris said the incident occurred on Sunday morning on Flight 3041 from El BajΓ­o to Tijuana.

It added that the flight was diverted to Guadalajara in central Mexico, where the passenger was handed over to the authorities.

Flightradar24 shows the plane landed in Guadalajara 46 minutes after taking off from El BajΓ­o.

A passenger told Fox 5 San Diego that the man who was apprehended grabbed a flight attendant and held a pen against her neck before trying to open one of the plane's doors. Another passenger and crew members restrained him.

A Mexican government statement cited by Bloomberg said the man was a 31-year-old Mexican traveling with his wife and two children. The report added that the man told cabin crew members he had received death threats and would be in danger if he traveled to Tijuana.

Volaris said in a statement in Spanish that it regretted the inconvenience caused and that the safety of passengers and crew members was the airline's highest priority.

In a post on X, Volaris' CEO, Enrique Beltranena, apologized to the passengers on the flight and thanked them for their composure and support.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump says he doesn't 'believe' Americans will pay more under his tariff plan but 'can't guarantee anything'

8 December 2024 at 08:36
President-elect Donald Trump in France.
President-elect Donald Trump reiterated that he's a "big believer in tariffs" on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

Remon Haazen/Getty Images

  • Trump has proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, China, and Mexico.
  • Trump said he doesn't "believe" the tariffs would cause price increases at home.
  • But, he told Kristen Welker on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, "I can't guarantee anything."

President-elect Donald Trump, in an NBC News interview that aired on Sunday, said he doesn't "believe" his tariff proposal will raise consumer prices for American families but stopped short of making a promise.

"I can't guarantee anything," Trump told "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker in his first major network television interview since the November general election. "I can't guarantee tomorrow."

Trump then said that before the COVID-19 pandemic, he placed tariffs "on a lot of different countries."

"We took in hundreds of billions of dollars and we had no inflation," the president-elect told Welker. "In fact, when I handed it over, they didn't have inflation for a year and a half."

Trump in November floated 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, China, and Mexico, the top three trading partners of the United States. The president-elect has criticized what he says is the free flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the United States from the three countries.

Late last month, Trump also threatened economic sanctions against the BRICS group, a bloc of nine emerging market countries. He said he would institute "100% tariffs" if they sought to "move away" from the US dollar.

Trump, while on NBC, reiterated that he's a "big believer in tariffs" β€” calling them "beautiful" β€” and said the United States is subsidizing Canada and Mexico.

"If we're going to subsidize them, let them become a state," the president-elect said. "We're subsidizing Mexico, and we're subsidizing Canada, and we're subsidizing many countries all over the world. And all I want to do is have a level, fast, but fair playing field."

Late last month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada traveled to Mar-a-Lago to dine with Trump after his tariff threats. Trudeau later said he had an "excellent conversation" with the president-elect.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also described her recent conversation with Trump as "excellent," stating that the two discussed her country's plans for migration.

The economy was a top issue for voters in the November election, with Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris largely due to dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden's handling of inflation. Harris sought to define her economic plan β€” zeroing in on price gouging and tackling housing affordability β€” but she could not reverse Trump's advantage on the issue.

Across the United States, Trump cut into traditional Democratic advantages with working-class voters and minority groups, with many siding with him at the ballot box over his focus on inflation.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Ted Cruz, GOP lawmakers urge SCOTUS to end 'Mexico's assault on our Second Amendment'

4 December 2024 at 06:15

FIRST ON FOX: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, along with other Republican congressional members, filed an amicus brief in support of U.S. gun manufacturers, urging the Supreme Court "to uphold American sovereignty and the Second Amendment."

The case, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos, stems from a lawsuit filed in 2021 by the Mexican government, in which the government alleged U.S. gun manufacturers, like Smith & Wesson, Ruger and others, should be liable for gun violence carried out by cartels south of the border, because the companies were allegedly aware their firearms were being trafficked into the country.

"I am leading this amicus brief to uphold American sovereignty and our Second Amendment. The lawsuit filed by Mexico seeks to trample on our Constitution," Cruz told Fox News Digital. "I look forward to the Supreme Court ending this madness, putting an end to Mexico’s assault on our Second Amendment, and sending a clear message that American sovereignty will not be eroded by any country."

POPULAR GUN MANUFACTURER THANKS ELON MUSK AFTER BEING SUSPENDED BY FACEBOOK

Sens. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.; Mike Braun, R-Ind.; Bill Cassidy, R-La.; John Cornyn, R-Texas; and Rick Scott, R-Fla., are just several Senate members joining Cruz in filing the brief. Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Calif.; Clay Higgins, R-La.; Pete Sessions, R-Texas; and Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., have also joined Cruz's brief.Β 

"I joined Senator Cruz and my House GOP colleagues in this case because it was the right thing to do and the only choice to make," Issa said in a statement. "This lawsuit has unified our friends and allies almost as never before, including from the National Shooting Sports Foundation and the Firearms Regulatory Accountability Coalition, and now the Supreme Court will listen to our petitions to hear this case."

BIDEN-HARRIS POLICIES MAY BE BEHIND SURGE IN REPUBLICAN WOMEN OWNING GUNS, CONCEALED CARRY ADVOCATE SAYS

"This is a landmark legal question and weighs whether to allow foreign governments to violate American sovereignty, bankrupt our firearms industry with lawfare, and undermine our Second Amendment rights. Today, we reaffirm our commitment to our constitutional freedoms. Our causeΒ willΒ prevail," Issa continued.

The filing slams the lawsuit as a whole, calling it "an attempt to co-opt the power of the federal judiciary to both circumvent the role of Congress and usurp the role of the Executive." The filing continues on to say that the suit disregards the "respective roles" assigned by the Constitution to the federal branches and thus proves to be "an affront" to American sovereignty.Β 

JUDGE REJECTS 2ND AMENDMENT ARGUMENT FROM ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT LIVING IN OHIO CHARGED OVER POSSESSION OF 170 GUNS

The brief also says that the right to bear arms under the Second Amendment is "fundamental to our scheme of ordered liberty," quoting a separate Supreme Court case. Via the present lawsuit, the brief says Mexico is attempting to impose "massive costs and injunctive relief" against American gun manufacturers, something "no public body in the United States could do via legislation or regulation."

More than two dozen top Republican prosecutors had previously urged the Court to take up the case in May of this year. That amicus brief, filed by Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen along with other GOP colleagues, urged the high court to hear the case in order to stop "a foreign sovereign’s use of American courts to effectively limit the rights of American citizens."

Mexico's lawsuit was initially dismissed by a Massachusetts federal judge, but Mexico successfully appealed its case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, with the support of California and other Democrat-led states.

The high court set oral arguments for the case for February.Β 

Canada's Prime Minister argues Donald Trump's tariff plan will hurt Canadians and Americans

29 November 2024 at 15:45
Justin Trudeau
Justin Trudeau.

Neil Hall/Getty Images

  • Trump vowed to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on his first day in office.
  • Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau warned tariffs will harm both Canadian and American consumers and industries.
  • Trudeau said he and Trump will "work together as we previously did."

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to President-elect Donald Trump's Monday vow to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one in office.

Trudeau, who's been Canada's prime minister since 2015, told reporters in Prince Edward Island, Canada, that Trump's expected action will have consequences not just on Canadians but also on American consumers, according to the Associated Press.

"Our responsibility is to point out that he would not just be harming Canadians, who work so well with the United States, but he would actually be raising prices for Americans citizens as well and hurting American industry and business," Trudeau said.

After a phone call earlier in the week to discuss the plans, Trudeau also made his way to West Palm Beach on Friday to meet with Trump, sources told Bloomberg.

Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods coming from the northern and southern neighbors of the US. He said it's a direct response to the inflow of immigrants and narcotics coming into the country illegally from Canada and Mexico, he said.

Canada and the US worked together during Trump's first presidency when re-negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump threatened to use tariffs then as well. His threat of tariffs on imports from Mexico led to an expansion of the Migrant Protection Protocols program across the US-Mexico border.

Trudeau noted that the two have been able to come to an agreement in the past.

"We can work together as we did previously," Trudeau said.

While Canada has yet to impose any tariffs of its own, a senior official told AP that it is looking into introducing retaliatory tariffs on certain items from the US.

"We're going to work together to meet some of the concerns," Trudeau said. "But ultimately it is through lots of real constructive conversations with President Trump that I am going to have, that will keep us moving forward on the right track for all Canadians."

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has already said that her country would impose tariffs on the US if Trump goes through with his plan.

Sheinbaum said during a press conference this week that "one tariff will be followed by another, and so on, until we put joint ventures at risk."

As previously reported by Business Insider, Canada was the top export destination for 32 states in 2016. According to the Toronto Region Board of Trade, about 77% of Canada's exports go to the US.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump's tariffs could make your next car more expensive

29 November 2024 at 13:37
Cars in traffic on highway in Jacksonville
Donald Trump's tariffs on Mexico and Canada could hit major car manufacturers.

peeterv/Getty Images

  • Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could raise car prices, impacting US and European automakers.
  • Tariffs may cost carmakers 17% of annual earnings and lead to credit downgrades, per S&P Global.
  • General Motors, Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis, and Volvo could be hit the hardest.

President-elect Donald Trump's new tariff proposals could hit American and European carmakers hard β€” and could push prices up for your next car.

A Friday note by S&P Global estimates a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, coupled with a 20% tariff on light vehicle imports from the EU and UK, could cost some carmakers 17% of their annual earnings β€” and as high as over 30% β€” before factoring in interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

Higher tariffs could hit General Motors, Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis, and Volvo hardest, S&P Global said. Meanwhile, BMW, Ford, Hyundai, and Mercedes-Benz may be less impacted.

"Donald Trump's re-election will likely intensify the headwinds the global auto industry will face in an already challenging 2025," the authors wrote.

These tariffs could push car prices higher and lead Americans to dig deeper into their wallets for another vehicle. Wells Fargo estimated Wednesday that tariffs could raise the price of cars made in the US by an average of $2,100. For vehicles fully produced in Canada or Mexico, prices in the US may increase between $8,000 and $10,000 higher, Wells Fargo estimated.

Kelley Blue Book data from October shows the average new vehicle transaction price in the US was over $48,600.

Trump announced on Monday that on his first day in office, he would sign an executive order that would put a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico and would remain in effect until "drugs, in particular, fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country!"

The US relies heavily on its neighbors for its cars. Commerce Department data reveals that the US imports over 2.3 million cars annually from Mexico. Of all US trade over the first three quarters, Mexico accounts for nearly 16%, while Canada is 14.5%. Business Insider previously detailed the exact car brands and models that could be most heavily impacted.

Trump is also expected to cut the $7,500 tax credit for EV purchases included in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which would likely reduce EV sales.

Both Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have spoken against the tariff proposals.

Sheinbaum suggested Tuesday that Mexico may impose its own tariffs on the US, adding Mexico has been hurt by the smuggling of drugs and weapons from the US.

Trudeau on Friday said the tariffs would have negative impacts on both Canadians and Americans.

"Our responsibility is to point out that he would not just be harming Canadians, who work so well with the United States, but he would actually be raising prices for Americans citizens as well and hurting American industry and business," Trudeau said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

What are tariffs? How Trump's tariff plan would work, who pays them, and how they could affect prices

29 November 2024 at 02:15
Trump tariffs
Donald Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada as well as China.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

  • President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China.
  • Tariffs raise money but may also affect prices and employment, and they can lead to trade wars.
  • Here's a guide to tariffs, including who pays them, how they work, and how they affect the economy.

Tariffs are back in the spotlight after President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% duty on goods from China, unless those countries stop the flow of illegal immigration and narcotics into the US.

Trump's tariff threat could be a negotiating ploy to win better terms with America's three biggest trading partners. But if the tariffs are imposed, they could affect prices, employment, and the broader US economy β€” especially given the risk that China, Canada, and Mexico may retaliate with tariffs, triggering a trade war.

Here's what you should know about tariffs and why they matter.

What are tariffs?

A tariff is effectively a government tax specifically levied on foreign goods imported into a country.

Tariffs date back more than 200 years and were historically used by authorities to raise money. The US government collected most of its revenue from tariffs before introducing an income tax in the early 1900s.

Authorities now use tariffs primarily to protect domestic industries from foreign competition and punish trading partners for bad behavior.

There are four types of tariffs:

  • An ad valorem tariff is calculated based on the value of the good. If an imported product is worth $10 and the tariff is 10%, the importer has to pay $1.
  • A specific tariff is imposed on a per-unit basis, so the value of the item doesn't matter. An importer might have to pay $1 for every pound of cocoa beans it brings into the country, whether it brings in 10 bags or 1,000.
  • A compound tariff combines elements of ad valorem and specific tariffs. The tariff on an imported item could be $1 per pound or 5% of its value, depending on which generates more revenue.
  • A mixed tariff applies both an ad valorem and a specific tariff, meaning an importer might have to pay $5 a pound and 10% of its value as well.

Who pays tariffs? How do they work?

The news that Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, along with Mexico and China, has made it important to understand who pays tariffs and how they work.

In the US, the simple answer is that the person or business importing the tariffed product into the US pays the tariff, and the money is paid to the US Treasury.

For example, if General Motors imports parts from its factories in Mexico and assembles its cars in the US, it would have to pay tariffs to bring in those parts.

Customs and Border Protection agents collect tariffs at 328 ports of entry, including docks, airports, and border crossings.

Cargo trucks tractor trailer US Mexico border crossing Ciudad Juarez El Paso
Trade between Mexico and the US is likely to be affected by higher tariffs.

REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez

How do tariffs affect prices and the economy?

Tariffs raise costs for importers, and to protect their profit margins, importers typically pass on those costs by charging higher prices to their domestic customers β€” whether they're companies or consumers.

Those price hikes can benefit domestic producers because the hikes make their goods relatively cheaper to bring to market than imported alternatives. For example, they might make it easier for US apparel manufacturers to compete with Chinese fast-fashion companies such as Shein and Temu.

Tariffs can also spur foreign producers to drop their prices to try to keep their products competitive, hurting their domestic industry and their country's economy, and partly offsetting the upward pressure on prices from tariffs.

The countries involved may also trade lower volumes of the product if both supply and demand fall in response to the tariffs.

A 2019 research paper on the initial impact of Trump's first-term tariffs found they fully passed through into the domestic prices of imported goods β€” and hurt consumer choice by reducing the availability of imported varieties.

Tariffs are frequently pitched as a tool to protect domestic jobs. A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper published in January found that the 2018-2019 trade war did not affect employment in newly protected sectors. The study also found that retaliatory tariffs from other countries contributed to job losses in domestic sectors such as agriculture and were only partly mitigated by federal subsidies.

Advantages of tariffs can include stronger domestic industries, increased government revenue, and pressure on other countries to stop unfair trading practices and help address issues such as illegal immigration and the drug trade.

Disadvantages can include tariffs' effects on consumers in terms of higher prices and reduced choice, plus the risk of retaliatory tariffs that could lead to employment losses in some industries and a full-blown trade war.

Moreover, a study published in The Economic Journal in 2021 found that retaliatory tariffs "disproportionately targeted more Republican areas," suggesting they were aimed at Trump's base to try to maximize their political power.

How Trump's tariff plan would work

Trump is no stranger to using tariffs. He called himself "Tariff Man" during his first term for imposing tariffs on products such as steel and aluminum plus a wide range of Chinese goods.

He replaced the North American Free Trade AgreementΒ with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in his first term, allowing most goods to continue freely passing between those countries.

That would change if Trump goes ahead with sweeping tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods. Products passing into the US from its northern and southern borders would be subject to duties, and the money collected would flow to the US Treasury.

A key question is whether the tariffs would result in higher inflation. Inflation, or the annualized pace of price increases, hit a 40-year high of more than 9% in 2022, spurring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from nearly zero to above 5% in less than 18 months.

Inflation has dropped below 3% in recent months, freeing the Fed to begin cutting rates. The question is whether Trump's tariffs would cause price growth to accelerate again and delay further rate cuts β€” especially as people's deep concerns about higher living costs was a key reason they reelected him.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Biden cautions Trump over imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada: 'I hope he rethinks it'

28 November 2024 at 15:35
Donald Trump and Joe Biden met in the Oval Office following the 2024 election
President Joe Biden is nudging President-elect Donald Trump to reconsider his trade policy.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

  • President Joe Biden said that he hopes Donald Trump "rethinks" imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
  • Trump has said he may impose a 25% tariff on the two allies' imports after he retakes office.
  • The president-elect has long had protectionist trade views.

President Joe Biden on Thursday expressed hope that President-elect Donald Trump would back down on his plan to impose tariffs on two of the US' closest allies.

"I hope he rethinks it, I think it is a counterproductive thing to do," Biden told reporters on Thanksgiving.

Days before the holiday, Trump pledged to enact a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports until the two countries do more to address illegal drugs and immigration. He said the tariffs would be among his first actions upon taking office, reopening the door to a national security law that lets the president impose tariffs with few limitations.

Trump's vow threatens to roil relations between the US and its two neighbors and may call into question the USMCA, a rewriting of the North American Free Trade Agreement that stands as one of his biggest first-term achievements.

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris teed off on Trump and his tariff threats throughout the 2024 campaign. Trump never retreated from more protectionist policy, a break from traditional GOP policy.

The US, Biden said, can't afford to alienate its two North American neighbors.

"The last thing we need to do is screw up those relationships," the president said.

It remains to be seen what Trump will do. His first administration imposed various tariffs on US allies' imports, including on Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminum.

In May 2019, Trump threatened to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports with the chance for additional escalation if the nation failed to do more to stop illegal immigration. His threat briefly roiled financial markets, but such tariffs never came to fruition.

Mexico is mostly moving to de-escalate.

Trump spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum not long after he made the new tariff threat.

Both sides seem happy with the conversation.

"Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. "She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border."

Sheinbaum later said in a statement on X that she had not agreed to effectively close the border. She told reporters on Thursday that she was confident a trade war could be avoided.

"There will be no potential tariff war," Sheinbaum said, according to The Associated Press.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump tariffs would increase the price of cars made by US automakers by over $2K: Wells Fargo

28 November 2024 at 05:12
President-elect Donald Trump at a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on November 13, 2024.
President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could negatively impact the US automaking industry.

Allison Robbert-Pool/Getty Images

  • Donald Trump said he'd put in place 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports upon taking office.
  • This would push up prices for US-assembled cars by an average of $2,100, according to Wells Fargo.
  • Mexico's president said her country would retaliate in kind to tariffs, impacting joint ventures.

President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would drive up the price of cars assembled in the US by an average of $2,100, according to estimates made by analysts at Wells Fargo.

"Autos are stuck in the middle of Trump's geopolitics," the analysts said in a note on Wednesday, per Fortune.

On Monday, Trump said that he would sign an executive order on his first day back in office imposing a 25% tariff on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico.

He said the tariffs would "remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular, Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

However, the tariffs would have ramifications beyond just Mexico and Canada.

If enacted, the tariffs would have a strong impact on the US top three automakers β€” General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company β€” due to their reliance on foreign parts sourcing and Mexican imports, Wells Fargo said.

About 76% of the vehicles manufactured in Mexico are exported to the US, making nearshoring a key part of the US automaking industry.

Wells Fargo's estimates came a day after Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said her country would impose its own tariffs in response to any from the US.

During a press conference on Tuesday, Sheinbaum said that "one tariff will be followed by another, and so on, until we put joint ventures at risk."

She also pointed to General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford as Mexico's main exporters to the US and as businesses that tariffs could endanger.

Colin Lewis, emeritus professor of Latin American economic history at the London School of Economics, told BI that tariffs are part of Trump's strategy to "bring jobs back home."

However, he said doing so may be more difficult than Trump expects due to massive US investments in Mexico.

On Wednesday, Mexico's economic minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said tariffs would effectively double the taxes paid by US firms producing in Mexico, and lead to the loss of 400,000 jobs in the US.

Ebrard estimated the price of pickup trucks from the top three US car manufacturers β€” 88% of which are imported from Mexico β€” would rise by an average of $3,000, describing the move as a "shot in the foot."

The Wells Fargo analysts said that prices in the US from vehicles entirely produced in Canada and Mexico would increase by $8,000 to $10,000, potentially resulting in a big hit to the earnings of Detroit's big three automakers.

"All in, we see ~$5 billion to $9 billion in EBIT risk for the D3 before pricing or plant closures," they wrote.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Nissan is having a terrible time, and Trump might be about to make it a whole lot worse

28 November 2024 at 03:41
The 2025 Nissan Kicks
The Kicks is one of several models Nissan manufactures in Mexico.

Nora Naughton, Business Insider

  • Nissan is facing a fight to turn around its ailing business after sales and profits plunged.
  • Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico could make that difficult.
  • Nearly one in four Nissan vehicles were made in Mexico last month, the company said on Thursday.

Nissan has had a tough 2024, and proposed tariffs from the incoming Trump administration are yet another obstacle to its turnaround plans.

The Japanese automaker has slashed its workforce as sales and profits have plunged amid growing competition from Chinese rivals, and its latest production figures for October make for particularly difficult reading.

Figures released on Thursday showed that vehicle production has dropped dramatically in all of Nissan's major markets this year except Mexico, where it rose nearly 10% compared to 2023. Overall, global production was down 7.1% in the first 10 months of 2024 compared to the previous year.

Nearly one in four Nissan vehicles made globally last month were built in Mexico, meaning the Japanese manufacturer is highly exposed to the tariffs proposed by incoming US president Donald Trump.

The president-elect has said he would impose blanket import taxes ofΒ 25% on all goods entering the US from Mexico and CanadaΒ on his first day in office and floated the idea of imposingΒ 200% tariffs on vehicles imported from MexicoΒ on the campaign trail.

Experts previously told Business Insider that any tariffs on trade with Mexico would have a dire impact on the US auto industry and likely increase vehicle prices.

Nissan would be one of the automakers worst-hit by the tariffs. The company has four production sites in Mexico, where it makes models including the Sentra, Versa, and Kicks.

Nissan's global sales in October were down nearly 2.7% from the previous year. The carmaker recorded double-digit drops in both China and Europe but saw sales rise in the US for the first time in three months.

The looming threat of tariffs adds to Nissan's considerable list of problems.

The automaker announced earlier this month that it wouldΒ cut 9,000 jobs and 20% of its manufacturing capacity. Profit for the quarter ending in September fell to around $210 million, down from $1.4 billion over the same period last year.

Nissan is reportedly searching for extra investors after European partner Renault sold some of its holdings. A senior official close to the companyΒ told The Financial Times that Nissan has "12 or 14 months to survive."

Japan's automakers face a reckoning

Along with rivals Honda and Toyota, Nissan has come under pressure from Chinese automakers. These companies are eating into Nissan's market share in China with affordable EVs andΒ rapidly expanding intoΒ developing markets dominated by Japanese companies.

Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are also facing a reckoning over their handling of the transition to electric vehicles. The three automakers have prioritized hybrids over pure battery-electric vehicles, a strategy that has boosted sales in the US but left them lagging behind local rivals like BYD in China.

"At the end of the day, the hybrid strategy worked in Japan, worked in the US, and worked very well in Europe, but that's not the case in China," analyst Felipe Munoz previously told Business Insider.

Nissan did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, sent outside normal working hours.

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Trump says Mexico will stop flow of migrants after speaking with Mexican president following tariff threats

27 November 2024 at 16:58

President-elect Trump said he spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, saying she has agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States" following threats this week to significantly tariff goods from coming into the U.S. from its southern neighbor.Β 

Trump vowed to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada if both nations failed to do more to stop the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs into the U.S. Sheinbaum, who recently took office, said on Wednesday that Mexico would retaliate if Trump followed through on his promise.Β 

TRUMP LIKELY TO MAKE SEVERAL BORDER SECURITY MOVES ON FIRST DAY, SAYS EXPERT

"If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs," she said during a press conference.Β 

On Wednesday, Trump said he spoke with his Sheinbaum about the matter.Β 

"Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo," he wrote on Truth Social. "She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!"

MEXICAN PRESIDENT MIGHT BE CHANGING VIEW ON US AS TRUMP WIN SENDS WARNING TO RULING SOCIALISTSΒ 

In a subsequent post, he said that: "Mexico will stop people from going to our Southern Border, effective immediately. THIS WILL GO A LONG WAY TOWARD STOPPING THE ILLEGAL INVASION OF THE USA. Thank you!!!"

In a post on X, Sheinbaum said she spoke with Trump by phone and that the two discussed "strengthening collaboration on security issues" and that the conversation was "excellent," Reuters reported.Β 

Trump has long complained that Mexico has failed to do enough to stop the flow of migrants and illicit drugs on its side of the southern border. Β 

In a post on X, Sheinbaum said she explained the "comprehensive strategy" Mexico has employed to address the "the migration phenomenon, respecting human rights."

"Thanks to this, migrants and caravans are assisted before they reach the border," she wrote. "We reiterate that Mexico's position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples."

Trump also threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on China over the massive amounts of fentanyl coming into the U.S. from Mexico.Β 

U.S. officials have frequently said that illicit fentanyl is manufactured in Mexico using Chinese precursors and then smuggled across the border by drug cartels.

Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times stronger than heroin and can be fatal in small doses, has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans and is a factor in many drug overdose deaths.Β 

On Wednesday, Trump said he would be working on a large-scale ad campaign explaining the dangers of fentanyl.Β 

"Millions of lives being so needlessly destroyed. By the time the Campaign is over, everyone will know how really bad the horror of this Drug is," he said.

In response to the threat of more tariffs, the China Daily newspaper – which is run by the Chinese Communist Party – published an editorial Tuesday saying, "The excuse the president-elect has given to justify his threat of additional tariffs on imports from China is far-fetched," according to Reuters.

Fox News Digital's Greg Norman contributed to this report.Β Β 

Mexico vows to retaliate with its own trade barriers, putting US joint ventures at risk

27 November 2024 at 06:05
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Donald Trump
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said US tariffs would result in Mexico following suit.

MAURO PIMENTEL/AFP via Getty Images; Brandon Bell/Getty Images

  • Donald Trump said he'd put in place 25% tariffs on Mexican imports on his first day back in the White House.
  • Mexico's president said her country would retaliate, which she said would impact joint ventures.
  • In the first quarter of 2024, the US accounted for 82.7% of Mexico's exports.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said her country would go after the US with tariffs of its own if President-elect Donald Trump pushed ahead with new tariffs on goods from the country, which would damage joint venture partnerships.

On Monday, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to announce that he would sign an executive order on his first day back in office to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

He said the tariffs would "remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular, Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

During a press conference on Tuesday, Sheinbaum said that "one tariff will be followed by another, and so on, until we put joint ventures at risk."

She pointed to General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company as Mexico's main exporters to the US and as businesses that tariffs could endanger.

"Why tax them and put them at risk?" Sheinbaum said, adding that tariffs "would trigger inflation and job losses in the US and Mexico."

About 76% of the vehicles manufactured in Mexico are exported to the US.

On Tuesday, the Mexican peso hit itsΒ lowest levelΒ against the dollar since March 2022, dropping by more than 2% in one day.

Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at the financial group Banco Base, said Trump may have thrown the tariff threat out there in a similar offhand way he has in the past.

"But Mexico's response, that we're going to respond to you with tariffs, that will make Trump really impose them," she told the Associated Press.

Mexico is the world's largest exporter to the US, and its economy is heavily dependent on its northern neighbor.

In the first quarter of 2024, the US accounted for 82.7% of Mexico's exports, and trade between the two countries is expected to increase by 300% over the next 10 years.

As a result, Mexico's "ability to walk away from President-elect Trump's threats remains limited," Wendy Cutler, a vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former US trade official, told AFP.

The past as a guide

During the first Trump presidency, the USΒ imposedΒ 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from Mexico, before lifting them in 2019.

In 2019, the Trump administration also threatened to impose up to 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico, saying that they would remain in place until Mexico "substantially" stopped the "illegal" inflow of migrants coming through its territory.

Mexico retaliated by imposing tariffs ranging from 7% to 25% on an estimated $3 billion of US goods, including steel, pork, fresh cheese, and apples.

Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank, warned on Monday that targeting Mexico on top of China would "greatly increase" the inflationary risks.

While Trump promised to implement harsh tariffs throughout his presidential campaign, his first term suggests that the sweeping threats β€” which have reverberated throughout global markets and vulnerable sectors like the auto industry β€” might be a version of his long-favored "leverage," as BI previously reported.

Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for treasury secretary, has called tariffs a "negotiating tool."

Meanwhile, President Sheinbaum said that "dialogue is the best path to achieve understanding, peace, and prosperity for our two countries."

She added: "I hope our teams can meet soon."

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Trump tariffs will bring Mexico to the table, Texas Democrat says

27 November 2024 at 04:15

A Texas Democrat believes President-elect Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico will get the country to come to the table "so we can solve the problem about immigration and fentanyl."Β 

Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas’ 28th Congressional District – which borders Mexico in the southern part of the state – made the comment Tuesday during an interview on NewsNation.Β 

"If it means a 25 percent tariff to potentially fix the border, would you favor that?" Cuellar was asked.Β 

"Well, let me put it this way: Laredo’s the largest port; we handle 40 percent of all the trade between the U.S. and Mexico. I know this is a way to negotiate, get some leverage. I know that Mexico will come to the table," he responded.Β 

TRUMP LIKELY TO MAKE SEVERAL BORDER SECURITY MOVES ON FIRST DAY, SAYS EXPERT

"But nobody wants a 25 percent tariff on them, and the Mexicans are threatening to do the same thing, and we don’t want to get into that," Cuellar added. "But I think this will definitely get Mexico to the table so we can solve the problem about immigration and fentanyl."Β 

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on Mexico when he returns to the White House in January.Β 

"As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before," Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social. "Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border."

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" Trump continued.Β 

"Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem," he declared. "We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!"Β 

MEXICAN PRESIDENT MIGHT BE CHANGING VIEW ON US AS TRUMP WIN SENDS WARNING TO RULING SOCIALISTSΒ 

A source told Reuters that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had a "good discussion" with Trump regarding trade and border security following that Truth Social post.

Trump also said Monday, "I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail."

"Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America," he added.

In response to that, the China Daily newspaper – which is run by the Chinese Communist Party – published an editorial Tuesday saying, "The excuse the president-elect has given to justify his threat of additional tariffs on imports from China is far-fetched," according to Reuters.

The editorial added: "There are no winners in tariff wars. If the U.S. continues to politicize economic and trade issues by weaponizing tariffs, it will leave no party unscathed,"

Why Trump is threatening Canada with tariffs

27 November 2024 at 02:00
Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau focused on his country's long-standing trade relationship with the US when asked about President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats.

NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images

  • President-elect Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Canada.
  • In making his statement on Truth Social, Trump criticized Canada over immigration policy and drugs.
  • Roughly 77% of Canada's exports go directly to the US, per the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

President-elect Donald Trump has made waves this week with his vow to impose new tariffs on imported goods from Canada, China, and Mexico, which also happen to be the United States' top trading partners.

Trump's hard-line stance against China β€” a country that conservatives consider to be a threat to the US's economic and national security interests β€” is not a surprise. Neither are his threats regarding Mexico, whose border with the US has created contentious and high-profile immigration concerns.

But where does Canada, the US's northern neighbor, fit into the equation alongside China and Mexico?

In short, Trump says he has the same concerns over immigration, fentanyl, and crime from the Canadian border as he does Mexico's.

While it's possible the tariff threats are part of Trump's negotiation strategy, there has been a sharp increase in apprehensions at the US-Canada border over the past year. From October 2023 through September 2024, US Border Patrol made 23,721 arrests at the US-Canada border, compared with the 10,021 arrests that were made in the preceding 12-month period, according to Customs and Border Patrol data. The New York Times and NPR reported that Indian nationals in Canada on temporary visas made up a large portion of the surge of illegal border crossings into the US.

Few things animate Trump more than immigration, one of his defining issues and one that he's zeroed in on since his first presidential run in 2016. The president-elect's firm stance on border security has earned him enduring loyalty from the party's base.

Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister, immediately addressed the concerns within his country, telling reporters on Tuesday that he had a "good" conversation with Trump following the president-elect's pledge to target his country.

"We talked about how the intense and effective connections between our two countries flow back and forth," Trudeau said. "We talked about some of the challenges that we can work on together."

Trump on Monday criticized both Canada and Mexico over the issue on his Truth Social platform.

"On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

If enacted, the ramifications of such tariffs could be enormous, as about 77% of Canada's exports go directly to the US, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

And some trade experts have warned that if Trump actually imposes the tariffs, he'd be violating the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was brokered during his first term in office to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement β€” the 1990s-era free-trade pact Trump had long railed against.

Jake Colvin, the president of the National Foreign Trade Council, said Trump's proposed tariffs would trigger a "clear violation of the USMCA," according to Roll Call.

"While we're all familiar with the President-elect's fondness for tariffs as a negotiating tool, it's particularly troubling that he's threatening to aim them at America's closest allies and trading partners on the very first day of his administration," he said.

Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister of Canada, and Dominic LeBlanc, the country's public-safety minister, responded to Trump's remarks in a joint statement on Monday, touting the mutually beneficial alliance between the two countries.

"Canada and the United States have one of the strongest and closest relationships β€” particularly when it comes to trade and border security," the top officials wrote on X. "Canada places the highest priority on border security and the integrity of our shared border."

"In addition, the CBSA [Canada Border Services Agency] is continually strengthening its ability to detect opioids through enhanced inspections at ports of entry, detector dogs, and emerging technologies, preventing opioids from entering and leaving Canada," they added.

The officials then pledged to work with Trump's second-term administration in tackling the issues he raised.

Business Insider reached out to a representative of Trump for comment.

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Trump is directing the trade war even before he takes office. Surprise tariffs were just the start.

26 November 2024 at 23:44
Donald Trump's face in arrows going up and down

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images; Rebecca Zisser/BI

  • Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, rattling global markets.
  • The president-elect may be using threats as leverage to get other leaders to comply, analysts said.
  • Analysts see more tariffs and uncertainty, and say companies and investors should plan accordingly.

President-elect Donald Trump has two months until he takes office, but he's already dishing out orders β€” and shaking financial markets.

On Monday, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to announce that he would sign an executive order on his first day in office to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.

"This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" Trump wrote.

Economists and analysts are now bracing for more uncertainty as they await Trump's next moves. While Monday's tariffs announcement marked a new escalation, it's still unclear exactly when and how the incoming administration would enact these policies.

Trump jolted global markets, but the reaction was 'benign'

Trump's announcements surprised global markets, with the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso losing ground against the US dollar.

On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar weakened by 0.8% against the greenback, while the Mexican peso fell as much as 2.7% versus the buck to a two-year low.

As for stocks, the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF dropped by as much as 3%, while the iShares MSCI Canada ETF fell by about 1%. Major Asian markets were about 1% lower on Tuesday and mixed on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 closed 0.6% higher at a record level on Tuesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also gained. However, futures underlying the benchmark indexes were in the red on Wednesday.

"The equity market reaction has so far been very benign, we would argue likely on the back of the transactional interpretation," wrote George Saravelos, the global cohead of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, on Tuesday.

Saravelos was referring to market chatter that Trump's tariff threats are simply leverage to get what he wants β€” because that was how he wielded them in his first term.

However, the relatively muted market reaction could herald more aggressive warnings from Trump.

"The first Trump administration showed that the more benign the market reaction, the greater the likelihood of further escalation," wrote Saravelos.

Canada, Mexico, and China are just the "opening move" in Trump's "global negotiating game" in his second term, Dave Townsend, a partner in the government solutions and investigations practice group at law firm Dorsey & Whitney, told Business Insider.

"There will be many more moves involving many countries, including retaliatory action against US exports to trading partners," he added.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signaled her country was ready to hit back. She said at a press conference on Tuesday that "one tariff will be followed by another, and so on, until we put joint ventures at risk."

Companies are front-loading ahead of higher tariffs

Trump is likely to take a far more protectionist approach regarding tariffs β€” one of the few stances the president-elect reliably adopts, wrote Nick Marro, the principal economist for Asia and global trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"Trump changes his mind on many things, but tariffs β€” and tariffs on China, specifically β€” are one of the key areas of ideological consistency that we've seen from him over the past 10 years," he wrote.

Companies and investors should think about "how to prepare for the worst," Marro added.

Some companies are already thinking ahead and front-loading imports to the US to avoid potentially higher tariffs, wrote economists from Goldman Sachs in a Tuesday analysis of earnings calls and media reports.

"We see risks that the stockpiling boost to imports could be a bit larger and/or more prolonged given the sizable lead time between now and inauguration, particularly if the Trump administration follows precedent and exempts goods already in transit," they said.

Investors might be too blasΓ© about how escalating tariffs could hurt their portfolios, Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, wrote on Wednesday.

"I wonder if the market is a tad complacent about the nature of a trade war, but I do think it's going to be more heavily felt in the FX markets than in US equity indices," he said.

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The Art of the Tariff: Trump's latest threat is right out of his negotiating playbook

26 November 2024 at 13:26
Donald Trump in a MAGA hat
Β 

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

  • During his first term, Trump threatened tariffs while renegotiating trade with Mexico and Canada.
  • Now, his promise to slap a 25% tariff on all imports from the countries strikes a similar chord.
  • Scott Bessent, Trump's pick for treasury secretary, has called tariffs a "negotiating tool."

President-elect Donald Trump helped pen business advice in his 1987 book "The Art of the Deal" that's been reflected in his posture on tariffs, from his first term to today: "Leverage: don't make deals without it."

Trump announced on Monday that he planned to use an executive order on his first day in office to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He said in a post on Truth Social that the tariffs "will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

While Trump promised to implement harsh tariffs throughout the campaign, actions from his first term suggest that the sweeping threat β€” which has reverberated throughout global markets and vulnerable sectors like the auto industry β€” might be a version of his long-favored "leverage."

In June 2019, Trump threatened tariffs against Mexico if the country didn't alter its immigration system, which it eventually did.

"That was in a sense analogous to what he's doing now outside of economics when he's talking about fentanyl and he's demanding more control of people coming to the border," Robert Lawrence, a professor of international trade and investment and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Business Insider. "Were the tariffs the reason the Mexicans became more compliant? I don't know, but he certainly did use that as a threat."

Lawrence said that the threat of tariffs is effective rhetorically right now, particularly for those in the European Union who doubted Trump's willingness to follow through on his word.

Trump also used tariffs as "leverage" when renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mark Blyth, a political economist at Brown University, told BI.

Blyth said that Trump is notably unpredictable, and until he steps into the White House again on January 20, people can only speculate about what promises he'll follow through on.

"We're all shadowboxing. We're jumping at the show: 'Look, he's going to do this! He says he's going to do this!'" Blyth said. "He's still got to get in, he's still got to form his Cabinet. He's got to put in these people and then he can do stuff."

A Brookings Institute report said tariffs set important context for the NAFTA renegotiations, and Mexico and Canada likely wouldn't have come to the negotiating table without them. However, the report concluded that using tariffs as leverage does not necessarily result in significantly more favorable trade relations, though they do succeed in getting "other countries' attention."

While financial analysts are taking Trump's threats seriously, some banking leaders seem to think that Trump's most recent tariff threat is a continuation of his past negotiation tactics.

"This is President Trump's negotiating style: step one, punch in the face, step two, let's negotiate," Kieran Calder, the head of equity research for Asia at Union Bancaire PrivΓ©e, said, per Bloomberg.

In a report published Tuesday morning, UBS said that "the timing and narrow focus of the latest threat suggest scope for negotiation." By focusing on non-trade issues β€” immigration and drugs β€” Trump is suggesting that the tariffs are transactional, focused more on gaining the upper hand than implementing long-term tariffs, the authors argue.

Luis Costa, the global head of emerging markets strategy at Citi Bank, made a similar point on Squawk Box Europe Tuesday. "To us, it is absolutely obvious that the Trump administration will use tariffs as one important lever to negotiate with Sheinbaum's government," he said, referring to Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum. "It is probably something that is more about negotiation rather than about imposing tariffs."

And Trump's own nominee for treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, published an opinion piece earlier this month arguing that the president-elect uses "tariffs as a negotiating tool with our trading partners."

A spokesperson from the Trump transition team told BI in a statement that "in his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation."

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Trump said he'll charge up to an extra 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Here's what the US buys from them the most.

26 November 2024 at 10:50
Shopping bags with flags on them.
Β 

Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI

  • President-elect Donald Trump is expanding his plans for tariffs on Mexico, China, and Canada.
  • The US imports key goods from them that may increase in price, like electronics, oil, and gas.
  • Trump's tariff plans could face legal issues, and he may choose not to implement them.

President-elect Donald Trump's newly expanded proposal to increase tariffs on the US's three largest trading partners could raise prices on various goods Americans rely on.

Business Insider looked at what the US imports the most from Mexico, Canada, and China to determine the products most likely to increase in price if Trump's plans come to pass.

The biggest categories are oil, electronics, and vehicles.

On Monday night, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that on his first day in office, he would "sign all necessary documents" to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. He also threatened a 10% tariff on imports from China "above any additional" tariffs on that country.

While the feasibility and legality of Trump's proposal are still unknown, if implemented, the proposed tariffs could affect a wide variety of goods Americans use daily. The Census Bureau reported that in 2023, the US imported about $1.3 trillion in goods from China, Mexico, and Canada combined.

From Canada, the top 2023 imports included over $92 billion worth of crude oil, about $34 billion in passenger cars, and almost $9 billion in natural gas.

The US imported over $65 billion worth of car parts from Mexico in 2023, along with about $26 billion in computers, nearly $20 billion in crude oil, and almost $14 billion in medicinal equipment.

China, meanwhile, is a major supplier of electronics to the US. The census data showed that in 2023, the US imported nearly $67 billion in cellphones and other household goods from China, over $37 billion in computers, and more than $32 billion in games, toys, and sporting goods.

Some companies have already been preparing to increase prices as a result of Trump's tariff plans on the campaign trail. Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC on November 19 that price hikes are likely on the horizon if Trump implements his tariffs: "We never want to raise prices. Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers."

This is the most detailed tariff plan Trump has released to date. On the campaign trail, he did not detail tariffs on Canada and Mexico β€” he proposed a 60% tariff on all imports from China, along with a 10% to 20% tariff on goods imported from anywhere else.

Trump appears to be using this round of tariff threats to push for changes in migration and drug policy in the targeted nations. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" Trump wrote of the Mexico and Canada tariffs.

Some political leaders in Canada responded to Trump's threat on Monday night. François Legault, the premier of Quebec, wrote in a post on X that Trump's plan posed a huge risk to Quebec's and Canada's economies. Per a translation from X, he added: "We must do everything possible to avoid 25% tariffs on all products exported to the United States."

Additionally, Trump's plan could spark legal issues. Arturo SarukhΓ‘n, a former Mexican ambassador to the US, wrote in a post on X that the tariffs would violate the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, a free-trade agreement negotiated by Trump in his first term that went into effect in July 2020.

Companies and economists have said that Trump's tariff plans would increase consumer prices. BI previously reported that Trump's broad tariff proposals were likely to increase prices across the board, from clothes and footwear to computers and video games.

Trump has denied that would be the case. "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," Trump said in an August speech.

The tariffs implemented during Trump's first term did not significantly influence inflation, but his proposals for his second term are much broader and could have a larger impact on prices if implemented.

At this point, however, Trump's proposals could still change. During his first term in 2019, Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico with the aim of strengthening the border, but following criticism from lawmakers β€” including some Republicans β€” he withdrew the plan.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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