• One of tech's biggest celebrities, Jensen Huang, spoke on Monday at a major industry show in Taiwan.
• Huang said Nvidia is building a new office in northern Taipei.
• He also introduced a new desktop system and talked about China's DeepSeek R1 model.

Taiwan's biggest tech celebrity — clad in his signature black leather jacket — ran onstage in Taipei on Monday morning with a lot to talk about.

Jensen Huang's 100-minute keynote at the tech show Computex featured Nvidia's usual assortment of high-tech videos, complete with a cute robot, and praise for semiconductor hub Taiwan.

The tech titan also outlined new products and a significant regional expansion. Business Insider was in the audience while Huang spoke — here are the top four takeaways from his speech.

1. Nvidia's new office

Speculation about Nvidia's new office in Taiwan has been brewing since Huang said in January that the company's current building was too small and that it was "looking for real estate."

On Monday, Taipei's mayor, Chiang Wan-an, generated buzz when he showed up at Huang's keynote. Huang went on to announce that Nvidia is eying the Beitou Shilin area — home to a science park — in northern Taipei for the tech giant's new Taiwan office, named "Nvidia Constellation."

The announcement was met with applause and cheers from the audience.

Chiang said in a media interview following Huang's keynote that the city government welcomes Nvidia's move and will provide any necessary assistance.

2. New computer systems

Huang introduced Nvidia's DGX systems, which are designed for users who want heavy-duty AI without dedicating significant storage space to a weighty server system.

The physical workstation can be used as a single computer or as a central node for multiple users.

"This computer is the most performance you can possibly get out of a wall socket. You could put this in your kitchen. But just barely, if you put this in your kitchen and then somebody runs the microwave, I think that's the limit," he joked.

Huang said the cloud-based system — DGX Spark — will be ready in a few weeks. Nvidia is working with companies including Dell and HP on the systems.

"I'll let all of our partners price it for themselves, but one thing's for sure: Everybody can have one for Christmas," Huang said.

3. DeepSeek praise

Huang talked software, too.

He praised the DeepSeek R1 model, saying that it's "genuinely a gift to the world's AI industry."

"The amount of computer science breakthroughs is really quite significant and has really opened up a lot of great research for researchers in the United States and around the world," Huang said.

He said DeepSeek R1 — owned by the Chinese hedge fund High-Flyer — has made a "real impact" in how people think about AI and that it has made a "great contribution to the industry and the world."

Shares of Nvidia and many of its peers were clobbered in January, as Wall Street grappled with how to price in the new, seemingly cheaper technology.

Huang said in February that investors got it wrong because the industry will still need computing power for post-training.

4. New AI supercomputer for Taiwan

Huang announced an Nvidia collaboration with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Foxconn — the world's largest electronics contract manufacturer — and the Taiwanese government to build an AI supercomputer for the island.

Nvidia's joint effort with the Taiwanese government and Taiwan's top tech giants highlights the Santa Clara-based company's close ties to the hub of global chipmaking.

Born in Tainan in southern Taiwan before he moved to the US as a child, Huang's meteoric rise to the top of tech royalty has captivated Taiwan and catapulted him to folk hero status.

In Taiwan, Huang is surrounded by local media and fans who ask for selfies and autographs. The celebrity factor has also rubbed off on Nvidia, the company he cofounded, at home and abroad. The chipmaker's stock is up nearly 43% in the last year.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang praised DeepSeek R1 for significant contributions to AI research.
• DeepSeek has made a "real impact" in how people think about inference and reasoning AI, Huang said.
• Nvidia's stock fell sharply amid January's DeepSeek selloff, but Huang said investors got it wrong.

Jensen Huang heaped praise on the Chinese AI model that briefly upended the tech world, calling DeepSeek's R1 "a great contribution to the industry and to the world" on Monday.

Shares of tech and semiconductor companies, including Nvidia, tumbled in January following the meteoric rise of DeepSeek R1, the Chinese AI model that investors viewed as being globally competitive and cost-effective.

But Huang has good things to say about DeepSeek, which he said on Monday was "genuinely a gift to the world's AI industry."

"The amount of computer science breakthroughs is really quite significant and has really opened up a lot of great research for researchers in the United States and around the world," Huang said at the opening keynote of the Computex Taipei tech conference in Taiwan.

In January, open-source chatbot DeepSeek R1 took the world by storm, raising questions about Silicon Valley's massive spending spree on the technology.

"Everywhere I go, DeepSeek R1 has made a real impact in how people think about AI and how to think about inference and how to think about reasoning AIs," Huang said.

US AI-related shares tanked across the board in the wake of DeepSeek's rise. Nvidia's stock lost as much as $600 billion in market capitalization, hitting 20% of Huang's personal net worth at one point. The stock has recovered most of these losses and is up nearly 43% in the last year.

Huang said in February that investors got it wrong because the industry will still need computing power for post-training.

At the time, Huang said that post-training is the "most important part of intelligence" and "where you learn to solve problems."

The tech titan also seemed upbeat about DeepSeek, saying the open-sourced model created "energy around the world."

• American importers are rushing to ship Chinese goods after the US's 90-day tariff truce with China.
• Bookings for China-to-US cargo surged after the tariff rollback agreement, said Hapag-Lloyd's CEO.
• However, the surge may be short-lived and would depend on future trade talks, said the CEO.

American importers have rushed to load up on Chinese goods this week after the US and China agreed to a temporary truce on tariffs, but a top shipping executive warned that the rebound may not last.

Bookings for cargo capacity from China to the US have shot up this week after the two economic giants agreed to roll back tariffs, said Rolf Habben Jansen, the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd. The company is the world's fifth-largest shipping firm by capacity.

"We have seen over the last couple of days that bookings have indeed been up more than 50% compared to what we saw the last four weeks," the CEO said during the company's first-quarter earnings call on Wednesday.

Habben Jansen said the rebound came after China-to-US container ship bookings crashed 20-30% in the last few weeks as Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese goods took hold.

This week's rapid turnaround followed the US slashing the combined tariff rate on Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days following the US and China's trade talks in Switzerland over the weekend. The new tariff rate took effect on Wednesday.

San Francisco-based container-tracking software provider Vizion said on Wednesday that US-China container bookings surged 277% in the week from May 5.

"We are definitely starting to see the bookings return now that this temporary pause is in effect," wrote Ben Tracy, Vizion's vice-president of strategic business development, in a LinkedIn post.

Hapag-Lloyd's Habben Jansen said it was unclear if the current booking euphoria could hold.

"Right now, we see a surge that could be very short-lived, but it could also last for 60 or 90 days, very much dependent on what comes out of those trade talks between China and the US," Habben Jansen said.

Last week, shipping giant Maersk said customers reacted "very, very fast on canceling orders or stopping orders" following Trump's tariff announcement on "Liberation Day."

Container volumes between the US and China plunged 30% to 40% in April, said Maersk's CEO, Vincent Clerc.

Earlier this month, logistics experts and shipping specialists told Business Insider that the US could face price hikes and empty shelves within weeks as Trump's tariffs hit supply chains.

• President Donald Trump is expected to receive a luxury jet from Qatar for use as the new Air Force One.
• The gift raises questions under the foreign emoluments clause of the Constitution.
• "A gift of this size from a foreign government is unprecedented in our nation's history," said Jessica Levison, a law professor.

Reports that President Donald Trump's administration is expected to receive a luxury jet as a gift from the Qatari royal family have drawn questions and criticism from legal experts.

At the core of the concern is the foreign emoluments clause of the Constitution, which prevents a person in a government office from accepting gifts or benefits from foreign parties without congressional consent.

"This definitely violates the foreign emoluments clause unless Congress gives consent," Richard Painter, the former chief White House ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration and a professor of corporate law at the University of Minnesota, told Business Insider.

"The fact that the plane goes to his presidential library after four years does not change that."

The gift from Qatar, a Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet, will be used as the new Air Force One, multiple outlets reported on Sunday, citing anonymous sources. It will be donated to Trump's presidential library when he leaves office. A new 747-8 costs about $400 million.

Trump appeared to confirm the reports in a Truth Social post on Sunday night.

"So the fact that the Defense Department is getting a GIFT, FREE OF CHARGE, of a 747 aircraft to replace the 40 year old Air Force One, temporarily, in a very public and transparent transaction, so bothers the Crooked Democrats that they insist we pay, TOP DOLLAR, for the plane," Trump wrote.

Ali Al-Ansari, Qatar's media attaché to the US, told BI in a statement that the transfer of an aircraft for temporary use as Air Force One is "currently under consideration." The matter "remains under review by the respective legal departments, and no decision has been made," Al-Ansari said.

Boeing did not respond to a request for comment from BI.

An 'unprecedented' gift

Jessica Levinson, a law professor and the director of the Public Service Institute at Loyola Law School, said that in addition to the foreign emoluments clause, federal statutes, such as the Foreign Gifts and Decorations Act and anti-bribery laws, may come into play.

"Outside of the legal context, it is fair to ask whether the acceptance of this gift could give rise to an apparent conflict of interest or corruption," she told BI.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told BI in a statement that any gift from a foreign government is "always accepted in full compliance with all applicable laws."

Levinson also pointed to the size of the gift.

"Perhaps the most important thing to remember is that the acceptance of a gift of this size from a foreign government is unprecedented in our nation's history," Levinson added. "Hence we do not have any direct historical analogs for this situation."

When asked about the legal mechanisms for addressing a violation of the foreign emoluments clause, Painter pointed to Congress.

"Investigation and possible impeachment is one remedy, but that's up to Congress," Painter said.

US politicians react

The reports drew criticism online from some leading US Democrats and at least one far-right activist with close ties to Trump.

"Nothing says 'America First' like Air Force One, brought to you by Qatar. It's not just bribery, it's premium foreign influence with extra legroom," Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer wrote on Facebook.

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff quoted part of the foreign emoluments clause in a post on X, and wrote, "Seems pretty clear that a $400 million 'air palace' from a foreign emir qualifies. The corruption is brazen."

Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin also took to X to criticize the gift.

"Trump must seek Congress' consent to take this $300 million gift from Qatar. The Constitution is perfectly clear: no present 'of any kind whatever' from a foreign state without Congressional permission. A gift you use for four years and then deposit in your library is still a gift (and a grift)," Raskin wrote.

Laura Loomer, a far-right activist with direct ties to Trump, also took to social media to criticize news of the gift.

"This is really going to be such a stain on the admin if this is true. And I say that as someone who would take a bullet for Trump," Loomer wrote on X.

Trump has been putting pressure on Boeing to deliver the next Air Force One, which is behind schedule and over budget.

Boeing was first tapped in 2015 to deliver the two new presidential planes. The delivery was initially set for 2024, then delayed until 2027 or 2028.

Last week, a US Air Force official said Boeing could deliver the new Air Force One jets by 2027, while Trump is still in office.

• The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days after trade talks in Geneva.
• The US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% during this period.
• China will lower tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10% in the same timeframe.

The US and China have agreed to slash some tariffs for 90 days.

"We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in Geneva on Monday following trade talks over the weekend.

The agreement will see the US slashing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days, he said.

China will lower its tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10% over the same period.

Bessent said the talks with China were "robust" and that both sides had shown "great respect."

The White House released a joint statement on the trade agreement reached by the two countries.

It said the US and China would "establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations" after the pause takes effect.

The statement also said the two countries recognized "the importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and the global economy."

Tariff uncertainty and an escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies roiled global markets. After President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" levies on April 2, stock markets were rocked by historic levels of volatility.

Stocks jumped following the news, with the three main indexes now recouping all their losses since Trump's tariffs first tanked markets, as investors welcoming the de-escalation.

Markets in Asia and Europe also made gains and the dollar rose against major currencies.

• US-China container volumes fell 30% to 40% in April due to tariffs, Maersk's CEO said.
• Maersk, a key global trade indicator, has noticed rapid order cancellations amid tariff impacts.
• Chinese exports to the US plunged about 20% in April from a year ago.

Container volumes between the US and China plunged 30% to 40% in April as President Donald Trump's tariffs took hold, the Danish shipping giant Maersk said on Thursday.

"It has gone very fast, so this is the result of customers reacting very, very fast on canceling orders or stopping orders, and waiting to see if this is going to resolve itself," Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said at the company's first quarter earnings call.

Often seen as a bellwether for global trade trends, Maersk — the world's second-largest shipper by capacity — is seeing the effects of a sharp pullback in transpacific activity.

US-China container volumes make up just 5% of Maersk's business, but Clerc's assessment of the sharp decline in trade between the world's top two economies aligns with the 35% drop in cargo volumes from Asia that the Port of Los Angeles expects.

The drop coincides with the US's 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, which went into effect in early April. Trade talks between Washington and Beijing are scheduled for this weekend, but uncertainty continues to ripple through supply chains.

Clerc said many companies are responding by drawing down existing inventory and postponing new orders until the policy outlook becomes clearer. Businesses are pulling stock not just from their own warehouses, but also from inventory held in Canada, Mexico, and across US-based distributors and vendors, as they wait for clarity on trade policy.

Clerc warned of potential shortages for some products, like solar panels and batteries, for which China dominates the supply chain, should the standoff between Washington and Beijing persist.

"Let's be clear, if we don't find something before the summer, it's going to start to hurt quite a lot across the board, because there are certain commodities and certain things where you can't really substitute some of these imports freely," he said.

Maersk previously projected a 4% growth in global container volumes for the year. It has now changed that outlook and expects the volume to range from a 1% decline to 4% growth.

Logistics experts and shipping specialists told Business Insider last week that the US could face price hikes and empty shelves within weeks as Trump's tariffs hit supply chains.

Despite the disruption, Maersk said it has been able to redeploy unused US-China capacity to other trade lanes where demand remains strong.

In April, Chinese exports rose 8.1% in dollar terms compared to a year ago, official customs data showed on Friday. Shipments to Southeast Asia jumped 21% while exports to the European Union rose 8%.

• President Donald Trump's tariffs will impact tech budgets, but AI investments will remain resilient, Goldman Sachs says.
• Spending on AI is protected due to competition, despite increased input costs from tariffs.
• Meta has raised capital expenditure guidance, emphasizing AI as a major focus amid tariff impacts.

President Donald Trump's tariffs are more likely to affect companies' head count than their investment in AI.

That's according to Eric Sheridan, a co-business unit leader for technology, media, and telecommunications at Goldman Sachs.

"I think the macro will end up with more volatility on operating expenses — that's head count, that's marketing spend, that's very, very long duration projects," Eric Sheridan, in a Goldman Sachs Exchange podcast episode released Wednesday.

In contrast, Sheridan said he expects companies' spending on AI to be more protected.

"I think given the sheer number of players investing both offensively and defensively at AI, I think this spend will get protected for a little longer than the macro environment might influence it," Sheridan said about AI.

Sheridan pointed to Meta's first-quarter earnings last week as an example.

The IT giant affirmed its commitment to AI data centers and infrastructure and raised full-year guidance for capital expenditure from a prior range of $60 to $65 billion to $64 to $72 billion now.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the company's earnings call that AI is "the major theme" for Meta right now.

However, the company lowered guidance for total expenses, which includes salaries and marketing spend, from the previous range of $114 to $119 billion to $113 to $118 billion.

"The messaging coming out of the company was, 'We continue to find ways to find efficiencies inside the organization, but we are not at a point where we want to sacrifice long-duration investments, mostly articulated through capex, just because the macro environment could look a certain way for three, six, or nine months,'" said Sheridan.

Following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, many companies have begun adjusting their business operations — raising prices, pausing product sales, and reevaluating supply chains.

The tariffs announced last month include a 10% baseline levy and a range of additional "reciprocal tariffs."

The Trump administration has paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days as it negotiates deals with trading partners. This pause excludes China, which faces a 145% tariff.

The US and China are set to meet for trade talks this weekend in Switzerland.

• President Donald Trump's trade policies may lead to recession due to tariff uncertainty, the economist Paul Krugman said.
• Unpredictable tariffs hinder business investment and consumer confidence, affecting demand.
• Recent market volatility reflects concerns over Trump's shifting tariff policies on trade partners.

US President Donald Trump's trade policies could contribute to a recession, not because of the tariffs themselves, but because of their unpredictability.

"A stable tariff rate would not cause a recession, but an unpredictable tariff rate that can change the next day is really a depressing effect on demand," the economist Paul Krugman said on an episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast uploaded on Wednesday. He called Trump's new trade tariffs the "biggest trade shock in history."

The Nobel Prize-winning economist said tariffs don't usually cause recessions. Levying tariffs on foreign products means that people will buy fewer imports and more domestic goods. This could have "unpleasant consequences" such as higher cost of living and lower efficiency, he said.

However, tariffs alone do not generally cause a collapse in demand.

The issue with Trump's tariffs is that they are "extremely uncertain," Krugman said. "Nobody knows what they will be. Nobody knows what comes next."

For businesses, that uncertainty is a stumbling block to investment decision-making, he said.

The sentiment could also flow through to consumer perception and morale, ultimately hitting that segment of demand too, he said.

"If consumer spending falls off a cliff, then it can become a severe recession," he said.

Krugman's comments follow weeks of market swings as investors and traders grapple with the Trump administration's new tariffs on trade partners and shifting positions on policies.

This week, Trump suggested that he could reduce the 145% tariff rate he has imposed on Chinese imports this year. On Tuesday, he told reporters that "145% is very high, and it won't be that high."

"It'll come down substantially, but it won't be zero," he said.

China has imposed a 125% tariff on US imports.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the current tariff levels between the two countries are unsustainable, but that the US wouldn't be cutting them unilaterally.

Some companies — including Alaska Air, Southwest Airlines, and recruitment firm PageGroup — have started withdrawing or withholding guidance for this year.

• US consumer spending remains strong despite economic uncertainty.
• Capital One reported a 5% rise in credit card purchase volume to $157.9 billion in the first quarter.
• Consumer debt repayment is also stable, with improving delinquency rates and payment rates.

The mighty US consumer is "in good shape" even in the face of economic uncertainty amid President Donald Trump's policy shifts, the boss of a credit card giant said on Tuesday.

"The US consumer remains a source of strength in the economy. That's true for almost any metric that we look at," Richard Fairbank, the chairman and CEO of Capital One, said at the bank's first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday.

Capital One reported that purchase volume on the bank's credit cards rose 5% to $157.9 billion in the first quarter.

Consumer spending was boosted in the first quarter as people snapped up goods ahead of Trump's new trade tariffs on trading partners.

In particular, there appears to be "a bit of a pull-forward in auto purchases, likely as consumers are trying to get ahead of tariff impacts," said Fairbank.

Despite inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, overall consumer debt repayment remains stable near pre-pandemic levels, Fairbank said.

"In our card portfolio, we're seeing improving delinquency rates and lower delinquency entries, and payment rates are improving on a year-over-year basis," he said.

There are worrying signs — the portion of customers making just the minimum payment was just above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting that "while the average customer is doing well, some customers at the margin are likely feeling stress from inflation and elevated interest rates," said Fairbank.

Capital One shares closed 3.1% higher at $170.20 apiece on Tuesday and extended gains by 2% in after-hours trading. The stock is down 4.6% so far this year.

• The US's new tariffs on China are raising concerns in Europe about overcapacity due to trade diversions.
• The EU has raised the issue with China recently. The two discussed ways to track trade diversions.
• The two economies are also in discussion about hefty tariffs on Chinese EV imports into the EU.

The US's new tariff regime is causing concerns in Europe, where Chinese goods may be redirected.

Europe has long worried about what it has deemed dumping from China — goods like solar panels that inundate the market, driving prices well below what European makers could compete against.

The European Union expressed that concern last week in a phone call between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

"President von der Leyen emphasized China's critical role in addressing possible trade diversion caused by tariffs, especially in sectors already affected by global overcapacity," according to the EU's official readout of the call.

The EU worries come as Chinese exports to the US are expected to fall sharply in the next few months.

China now faces a 145% tariff rate from the US that took effect this month.

Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China, wrote in a Monday note that he expects trade between the two countries to "crater."

Chinese exports surged 12.4% in March from a year ago, thanks to companies racing to get goods out ahead of the tariffs. But the export spike is unlikely to last, and President Donald Trump's trade war could quickly reshape global markets.

"If exports from Asia don't flow to the US, Asia may dump its excess products on Europe, inducing Europe to put up its own tariffs on imports from Asia. And so on," wrote Thierry Wizman, a global foreign exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie, last week.

The fallout has already started. Chinese shippers are reselling US energy products initially meant for China to Europe, wrote Henning Gloystein, the practice head of energy, climate, and resources at the Eurasia Group. US exporters of liquefied natural gas are redirecting cargoes initially meant for China to Europe.

"Watch a dumping debate coming to Europe's shores soon," wrote Gloystein on Friday.

The EU said last month that EU-China trade relations are "unbalanced, without level playing field and a deficit in trade in goods that has been widening over the last decade, fuelled by illegal subsidies."

Last year, the EU ran a record 304.5 billion euros, or $347 billion, trade deficit with China.

EU and China in negotiations

Despite these concerns, the EU appears to want to avoid a wider trade war.

Von der Leyen and Li discussed how to track trade diversions and address future developments in their phone call last week.

The EU does have leverage over China. Last year, the trade bloc announced hefty tariffs on Chinese EV imports. The two groups are negotiating the specifics.

Meanwhile, China is keen to have more friends on its side amid the global trade war.

On Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his first public comments on the tariffs during a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing.

Xi said China and the EU should "jointly reject unilateral and bullying actions" to safeguard economic globalization and the international trade environment, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

• President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on his tariff plan for most countries.
• Stock markets surged in response after several days of significant declines.
• Business leaders across the spectrum, from Bill Ackman to Mark Cuban, reacted disparately.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on his aggressive tariff plan against most countries, sending ripples through the business community.

The market, which had plummeted following news of the president's trade strategy, surged in response. Industry leaders from across the political spectrum gave their initial reactions:

Bill Ackman

The billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman wrote in a post on X: "This was brilliantly executed by @realDonaldTrump. Textbook, Art of the Deal."

Ackman had previously advocated for a pause in the tariffs' implementation, saying it would "enable negotiations to be completed without a major global economic disruption that will harm the most vulnerable companies and citizens of our country."

He called China a "bad actor." He wrote: "Advice for China: Pick up the phone and call the President. He is a tough but fair negotiator. The longer China holds out and retaliates, the worse the outcome for China."

David Sacks

The former PayPal executive David Sacks posted on X to declare Trump's reversal on tariffs a massive victory for the president.

"They did everything they could to create a panic," Sacks wrote. "They predicted a Black Monday that never came. They became jubilant over an intraday correction on Tuesday. They were rooting for Trump to fail even if it meant the market and economy crashed."

Now a White House advisor, Sacks added: "Fortunately their hopes have been dashed. Trump has been vindicated. China is isolated, and the rest of the world is lining up to negotiate new trade deals. Do you think this would have happened if Trump had asked nicely? Maybe if he had said pretty please? Never. This was the only way to rewrite the rules of global trade. Once again, Trump was right about everything!"

Diane Swonk

Diane Swonk, the chief economist of the professional services firm KPMG, wrote in a series of posts on X that despite the news of the implementation pause, the country had "not escaped the tariff problems."

"The effective tariff rate is actually HIGHER with the pause than it was as announced on April 2, due to the tariffs on China," Swonk wrote. "There will be some diversion through connector countries. However, the effective tariff rate now peaks at 30.5% during the pause. That is worse than our worst case scenarios."

She added: "The tariff pause is a moving target and it given the high level of tariffs on China and 10% across the board plus potentially more in the pipeline, takes the effective tariff rate to a RECORD. The market must be hoping told all goes away."

Spencer Hakimian

The founder of the hedge fund Tolou Capital Management was not too pleased with the recent back-and-forth over Trump's tariffs, writing in a series of posts on X that we're now "back to square one" after Trump's latest reversal.

"Nothing accomplished. Nothing changed. But somehow we won. Nice," Hakimian wrote.

In a separate post, Hakimian lamented the lack of clarity in Trump's tariff strategy, regardless of the economic outcome.

"Even if you support all of the past week," he said. "From the escalation to the walk back, although that's inherently contradictory to support both. Everyone admits that the rollout & rollback of all of this has been needlessly sloppy and unclear, correct? Or is that also some voodoo 8D chess strategy too?"

Chris Fralic

Chris Fralic, a partner at the venture capital firm First Round Capital, posted on X a screenshot of the tickers of several surging stocks, writing it's "Good to be liberated from Liberation Day."

"If your portfolio drops by X% and then rises by X%, you'll still be below your starting point," Fralic wrote in a separate post. "The bigger the drop, the more pronounced this effect becomes. A 20% drop followed by a 20% rise leaves you at 96% of your original value."

Mark Cuban

Over on Bluesky, the "Shark Tank" star Mark Cuban reposted a statement from the economist Paulo dos Santos, which described Trump's tariffs as "the Ivermectin of economic strategy," referencing the antiparasitic drug used by some to treat COVID-19 infections, despite reservations from the medical community.

In a separate post made just before Trump announced the tariff pause, Cuban wrote: "What some people aren't factoring into their analysis is the reality that companies were buying tons of inventory to beat the tariffs. That's cash taken from being able to invest or hire. In fact the probably cut costs and jobs as a result."

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio wrote on X that he hoped all parties would "reconsider their approaches."

"There are better and worse ways of handling our problems with unsustainable debt and imbalances, and President Trump's decision to step back from a worse way and negotiate how to deal with these imbalances is a much better way," he wrote.

The founder of Bridgewater Associates said he hoped Trump would do the same with China — which is excluded from the 90-day reprieve.

Dalio said a deal with China should include a way to strengthen the renminbi against the dollar while easing China's fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate Chinese demand: "This would be a win-win."

Richard Branson

"As I wrote earlier this week, this was a moment for the US administration to accept their mistake and change course," Richard Branson wrote in a post on X. "This reversal is a huge relief for the whole world."

Earlier this week, the Virgin Group founder called on the US government to "own up to a colossal mistake."

Kevin O'Leary

In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump wrote that he'd raised his tariffs on China to 125% "based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets."

But the "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary said Trump should have pressed China harder by raising the tariffs to 400%.

"China doesn't play fair, and it's time we stop letting them get away with it," O'Leary wrote on X hours after Trump's announcement.

Bill Gross

Bill Gross said investors should seriously think about whether to own a stock whose value relies on the whims of Trump.

"My portfolio of defensive stocks is green so I don't begrudge today's market," Gross, a cofounder of the global fixed-income investment company PIMCO, wrote Wednesday night on X.

He added: "But I ask you, would you want to own highly volatile US stocks whose price depends on whether POTUS had a good night's sleep and woke up the next morning to reverse yesterday's policies?"

Correction: April 10, 2025 — An earlier version of this story misstated David Sacks' role at PayPal. He's the company's former chief operating officer and product head, not its cofounder.

• China raised tariffs on US goods to 84% on Wednesday.
• The move follows President Donald Trump's decision to further increase tariffs on imports from China.
• The European Union announced its first retaliatory tariffs affecting US goods worth about $23 billion.

China imposed 84% tariffs on US imports and Europe made its first move on Wednesday as the global trade war escalated.

The measures follow President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs against trade partners, including imposing cumulative 104% charges on Chinese goods.

Beijing retaliated after the US tariffs took effect on Wednesday. Its charges will be imposed from Thursday, a government statement said.

"China urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices, cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China, and properly resolve differences with China through equal dialogue on the basis of mutual respect," the statement said.

The announcement pushed European stock markets lower, but the S&P 500 posted early gains.

The European Union announced its first retaliatory tariffs after the US imposed 25% levies on EU steel and aluminum exports last month.

The tariffs on US goods worth about $23 billion will take effect this month and target products such as soybeans, diamonds, and poultry.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said China had sent a "clear signal" that it intended to maintain its stance despite the higher US tariffs.

"China can afford to wait. I don't expect a quick and easy way out from the current trade conflict," Zhang said. "The damage to the two economies will become visible soon. The outlook for international trade and global economic growth is highly uncertain."

On Tuesday, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "China also wants to make a deal, badly, but they don't know how to get it started. We are waiting for their call."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Wednesday that China's reluctance to negotiate was "unfortunate" and said it had the "most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world."

Beijing vowed on Tuesday to "fight to the end."

"Judging from its actions, the US doesn't seem to be serious about having talks right now," said Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

"If the US truly wants to talk, it should let people see that they're ready to treat others with equality, respect and mutual benefit."

Narrow path

Analysts are bracing for a long standoff between the two mega economies.

"We see a narrow path to resolution for the ongoing tariff gridlock between the US and China as well," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

"Even if negotiations resume in the future, reaching a consensus may prove difficult, suggesting that trade tensions could persist for an extended period."

Marc Rowan, the CEO of Apollo, told CNBC he expected the Trump administration to reach agreements on tariffs with the "vast majority" of trading partners.

• The US-China trade war has escalated with sweeping new tariffs and fresh export bans from Beijing.
• President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs on top of the 54% he's already announced.
• Beijing called that "a mistake on top of a mistake," prompting Treasury head Scott Bessent to hit back.

The US and China could be heading for a long standoff in their trade war, risking collateral damage for economies and markets worldwide.

On Friday, China announced sweeping retaliatory tariffs of 34% tariff on all US imports — showing that Beijing isn't taking President Donald Trump's tariffs lying down. The world's second-largest economy also announced fresh export bans on rare earth materials.

On Monday, Trump hit back with a fresh threat of an additional 50% in tariffs on China — on top of a total 54% he announced since taking office — if Beijing doesn't withdraw its retaliatory tariffs.

On Tuesday, the row between the world's two largest economies intensified, with China's Commerce Ministry calling Trump's latest threat "a mistake on top of a mistake."

"If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end," a spokesperson said in a statement. The ministry vowed countermeasures if more US tariffs are put in place.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent responded on Tuesday, calling the escalation a "big mistake" in a CNBC interview.

"What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them."

Bessent described tariffs as a "melting ice cube" because they would generate revenues as factories are built in the US, which would then bring in payroll taxes.

The intensifying spat between the world's two largest economies contributed to a worsening market rout globally. European and Asian stocks made a partial recovery on Tuesday, with Wall Street set to open higher.

"Unlike the previous two rounds, in which the tit-for-tat tariff response was more restrained, targeting some specific categories of US imports, this time, Beijing announced a plain, simple, and blanket tariff hike," Nomura economists wrote on Monday.

Households hammered

The trade war will be painful for Americans — and for everyone else.

"Near-term pain all around (US included!) is guaranteed if the US does not dial-back on blanket tariffs as industries are hit by margin squeeze and households are hammered by acute affordability woes," Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho said in a Monday note.

Some consumers are already snapping up essential items to beat price inflation, which is likely to set in as importing companies pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers. Others are slowing purchases of luxury items, Business Insider reported last week.

Meanwhile, many are witnessing their investments slump because of a historic global stock rout as markets sound the alarm on a potential economic downturn.

"Needless devastation by way of collateral damage all around will be hard to avert as aggregate demand slumps accentuated by a sharp drop in demand for capital goods as uncertainty paralyzes investments," Varathan wrote.

Analysts are not expecting a quick resolution, with those from the Eurasia Group citing "mismatched negotiation styles" between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The "US and China are stuck in an unprecedented, and expensive, game of chicken, and it seems that both sides are unwilling to back down," economists at Nomura wrote in a Tuesday note, adding that "the worst might be yet to come" for the financial markets of both countries.

Beijing's cards

China's countermeasures — which exceeded expectations — likely reflect the country's perception that the US's latest tariff move is extreme. Beijing probably views Washington's efforts to target Chinese exports through third countries as "comprehensive and malicious," analysts at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy, wrote in a Friday note.

Nomura's economists expect tensions between the two mega economies to "worsen significantly," particularly as they're already competing in high-tech sectors including AI and robotics.

And there's no guarantee that Xi wants a deal under the current, poor state of negotiations.

"Strong, symmetric, tit-for-tat tariff retaliation is a precondition for Beijing to come to the negotiating table. President Xi Jinping cannot engage in talks from a position of relative weakness," the Eurasia Group analysts wrote.

Even though the US has significant leverage from its status as the world's largest economy and consuming market, China has its own cards.

"The bluff Beijing is calling is evident. Imports substitution is simply not an option for the US. Not right now," Varathan wrote.

Trump has made it clear that he wants manufacturing jobs back in the US.

That won't be an easy transition, with challenges including long lead times to construct manufacturing facilities and extensive supply chains located elsewhere.

Trump doubled down on his new tariffs on Sunday night, saying they are necessary to rectify America's trade deficits with other countries.

"I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," Trump told reporters.

April 8, 2025 — This story has been updated to include Trump's and Bessent's statements, the Chinese Commerce Ministry's latest responses, and new comments from Nomura.

• China will impose a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10.
• China had retaliated against earlier tariffs from Trump in recent months.
• Trump has imposed 54% tariffs on China since taking office in January.

China announced its own levies on US imports on Friday following President Donald Trump's tariffs decision.

Beijing will start charging a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, the official Xinhua news agency said on Friday.

That matches the 34% tariffs against China that Trump announced on Wednesday. They come on top of 20% levies against the country since he took office in January, bringing the total to 54%.

The announcement triggered further falls on stock markets, with Europe's STOXX 600 tumbling 4.5% in early afternoon trading. Dow Jones futures shed about 2.6% at 7 a.m. ET, indicating a fall at the open of about 1,100 points.

A statement from China's Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council hit out at the "reciprocal tariffs" being imposed on Chinese goods exported to the US.

"The US practice is inconsistent with international trade rules, seriously undermines China's legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice that not only undermines the interests of the United States itself, but also endangers global economic development and the stability of the production and supply chain," it read.

Guo Jiakun, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said on Thursday that the US move "gravely violates WTO rules, and undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system."

China had retaliated against earlier tariffs from Trump in recent months.

In February, Beijing retaliated against a 10% tariff Trump put on all Chinese goods. At the time, China's Ministry of Finance said the country would impose a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some vehicles.

In March, China hit back swiftly again after Trump doubled tariffs against the country to 20%. This time, Beijing targeted American agriculture, announcing 10% tariffs on US soybeans, pork, and beef imports and 15% tariffs on chicken and cotton imports.

Analysts had signaled more measures from China were likely after Trump's Wednesday announcement.

"Retaliation will likely follow a phased progression, leaving stronger actions in reserve for further escalation while also maintaining space for possible negotiations," Eurasia Group analysts in a Thursday note.

"However, each round of escalation and retaliation increases the likelihood of a breakdown in bilateral ties this year."

• A Fitch economist just issued a warning about recessions globally.
• He said many countries around the world could experience a recession due to new US import tariffs.
• US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new import tariffs on all countries ranging from 10% to 49%.

Many countries around the world are likely to face economic downturns following US President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imports, an economist said.

"This is a game changer, not only for the US economy but for the global economy. Many countries will likely end up in a recession," wrote Olu Sonola, the head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, in a note on Wednesday.

Sonolo's assessment came after Trump announced tariffs of 10% to 49% on imports from all countries with tariffs on US goods.

The new levies bring the US's tariff rate to around 22% — a level last seen around 1910, according to Fitch's analysis. It's also sharply higher than 2024's 2.5% rate.

"You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time," wrote Sonola.

It's unclear how long these tariffs could last. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg in a Wednesday interview that Wednesday's tariffs were "the high end of the number, barring retaliation."

"We'll see where it goes from here," Bessent said.

Asia is hit particularly hard. The region's largest economy, China, faces 54% levies, including 34% in reciprocal tariff announced on Wednesday and pre-existing duties of 20%.

US allies Japan and South Korea face 24% and 25% in reciprocal tariffs, respectively. India faces 26% duties.

Southeast Asian countries — many of which have become supply chain hubs for companies diversifying manufacturing activities from China — are some of the most impacted by the new US tariffs.

Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia face tariffs of 46%, 36%, 32%, and 24%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Trump hit the European Union, a key ally, with 20% in tariffs.

• Global markets plummeted after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on all trading partners.
• Wall Street is already hurting after its worst quarter since 2022 amid tariff whiplash.
• Gold hit new highs as investors looked for safe havens amid the uncertain impact of an escalating trade war.

Global markets tumbled Wednesday after President Donald Trump unveiled his long-anticipated tariffs in an address at the White House Rose Garden, sending shockwaves through stock indexes and hammering shares of companies reliant on global supply chains.

US stock futures, which indicate the direction of the market once regular trading commences on Thursday, reacted instantly. S&P 500 futures fell as much as 4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled more than 4.7%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average cratered over 1,000 points at one point.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, described the tariffs as a "major shock."

"Pre-announcement speculations pointed to a flat universal tariff in the 15-20% range, but the final outcome proved far more hawkish —while the universal tariff was set at 10%, many countries faced significantly steeper rates, which were out of market expectations," Yeap wrote in a Thursday note.

Asian markets also sold off following Trump's tariff announcements as the region is particularly hard hit by the new levies.

The region's largest economy, China, faces 54% levies, including 34% in reciprocal tariff announced on Wednesday and pre-existing duties of 20%.

This sent Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling as much as 2.4% while China's CSI 300 lost as much as 1.1%.

US allies Japan and South Korea face 24% and 25% in reciprocal tariffs, respectively. Japan's Nikkei 225 was 3% lower by 2 p.m. local time, while South Korea's Kospi was down 0.7%.

Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Stock Index tanked over 6% on Thursday while Thailand's SET Index was slightly lower.

The new set of tariffs could push countries around the world into recessions, wrote Olu Sonola, the head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, in a note on Wednesday.

Consumer-focused companies were walloped

Fueled by anxiety over Trump's often on-again, off-again tariff policy, Wall Street is already licking its wounds after wrapping up the worst quarter since 2022.

Share of companies reliant on global supply chains were hit hard.

In after-hours trading, shares of Apple, Walmart, and Nike dropped 7%, while Amazon fell 6%. Nvidia, which relies on overseas manufacturing for some of its advanced chips, was down almost 6%.

Speaking about the after-hours market reaction, CNBC host Jon Fortt said he had "never seen anything like it."

"This — I think, fair to say — is worse than the worst-case scenario of the tariffs that many in the market expected the president to impose," said Fortt.

Gold hit a fresh record of nearly $3,160 an ounce as bullion — one of the few commodities exempted from the tariffs, according to a White House factsheet — and rose as much as 0.8% at Thursday's open in Asia. Spot gold was last trading around $3,130 per ounce at 2:16 a.m. ET. Investors have flocked to the precious metal in 2025 in a flight to safety amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

Mexico and Canada were not hit with any fresh tariffs, though previous ones remain in place. Goods from Mexico and Canada that meet the requirements of the USMCA trade agreement will also generally still be exempt from tariffs, with the exception of auto imports, as well as steel and aluminum, which are subject to earlier tariffs implemented in March.

It's unclear how the administration calculated the tariffs other countries impose on the US, or if the tariffs are truly "reciprocal." There is no official record showing the European Union has a 39% tariff on US goods, or that Japan has a 46% duty on products from the US, among the dozens of other figures unveiled Wednesday.

• China is filling gaps left by the USAID shutdown in developing countries.
• The US pulled billions of dollars out of such countries in programs including health and education.
• China's development aid is likely to go toward regions and sectors that align with its interests.

The effective shutdown of the US Agency for International Development has already created openings for China to fill.

China appears to be launching new programs across several developing countries where USAID has left — as analysts forecast to Business Insider in February.

In Cambodia, one of the countries most hit by USAID's pullout, China has announced new funding programs for a variety of causes, including child healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and land mine clearing.

In Nepal, Chinese Communist Party officials have told the country's leaders that Beijing is willing to provide funding, according to The Annapurna Express.

Tai Wei Lim, a professor at Japan's Soka University, told BI that it's not surprising that China stepped in so fast to fill the US's shoes for specific projects.

President Donald Trump flagged his intention to shut USAID well in advance, so China — a strategic competitor — had time to strategize, said Lim, who specializes in the political economy of Northeast Asia.

"As China is an economic superpower with a unique highly centralized state, it can mobilize its enormous resources relatively easily to spaces where it sees opportunities in furthering its goals and objectives aligned with national interests," Lim said.

China has long focused on infrastructure and construction projects in other countries. Beijing could also look to other sectors that China already leads, like agriculture and public health. That could boost the country's bottom line and its publicity efforts, said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst on the China and Northeast Asia team at the risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Beijing is also likely to target locations in its sphere of influence, including Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia.

Chan said even though China was opportunistically filling in the gaps in some USAID programs, there's no broader trend yet of Beijing stepping into the US's big shoes.

Chinese media has not reported higher foreign aid plans, "or the triumphalist propaganda that we would expect to accompany a broader strategic shift in Beijing's approach to development assistance," Chan said.

He said that it's unlikely China would be able to fill most of the void left by USAID's withdrawal and that other countries from Northeast Asia and Europe would step up their funding where doing so would suit their interests.

USAID spent $32.5 billion in the 2024 fiscal year. Exact figures for China's foreign aid spending aren't fully public, but estimates from Japanese academics put the country's 2022 spend as high as $7.9 billion.

"The world has crumbled around us," Phil Robertson, the director of the nonprofit Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates, said last week at a panel discussion in Bangkok, "at least as far as foreign assistance to development in Southeast Asia goes."

• Ray Dalio is joining Indonesia's Danantara sovereign wealth fund as a special advisor.
• Danantara aims to manage over $900 billion, focusing on national industrialization.
• Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, is known for his insights on the US and Chinese economies.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is joining Indonesia's new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, as a special advisor.

The fund announced on Monday that Dalio is part of a "dream team" of advisors that includes economist Jeffrey Sachs and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Last month, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto launched Danantara to manage national investments and consolidate several state-owned companies.

The fund is focused on "high-impact projects that will create significant added value for our nation, will create real benefits, create quality jobs, and bring long-term prosperity to the people of Indonesia," Prabowo said.

He said Danantara would start with a $20 billion initial investment budget and eventually manage assets worth more than $900 billion. The fund plans to invest in national industrialization and projects focusing on processing natural resources.

A sovereign wealth fund is a government-owned investment fund made of money generated by the government. They typically invest in a variety of assets like stocks, bonds, startups, and real estate. Singaporean state-owned investment fund Temasek has a net portfolio value of $290 billion, while Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, is valued at approximately $1.79 trillion.

Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, in 1975. He has written several books on financial and economic history and has spoken frequently about the soaring debt problems in the US and China.

He is worth $16.2 billion, per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. His representative did not respond to a request for comment.

Indonesian sovereign wealth fund under scrutiny

Dalio joins Danantara at a time when the sovereign wealth fund is under scrutiny about transparency and governance.

This month, Prabowo's administration started transferring ownership of 40 state-owned companies to Danatara. The sovereign wealth fund reports directly to the Indonesian president.

Investor concerns over Prabowo's grip on power have contributed to a slump in Indonesia's stock market — the largest by market cap in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is one of the world's worst performers this year. It's down 12% in 2025 as foreign investors flee, pulling over $2 billion from the market, according to Bloomberg estimates.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah is also one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year. On Tuesday, the rupiah hit its lowest level since June 1998 amid the Asian Financial Crisis.

• China's economy is showing signs of recovery, with better-than-expected data in January and February.
• Although economic activity remained soft, many indicators appear to have stopped deteriorating, per Goldman Sachs.
• China's economy is dogged by a property crisis, deflation, and challenges in the employment landscape.

China's economy and markets have been battered over the last few years due to an epic property crisis and post-pandemic scarring — but it may now be turning the corner.

Data from the world's second-largest economy for the first two months of the year beat expectations and real GDP growth is tracking slightly over 5%, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Friday note. This is higher than the firm's 4.9% forecast.

"The narrative shifted notably in early 2025. Although economic activity remained soft, many indicators appear to have stopped deteriorating," wrote the analysts at Goldman Sachs.

The analysts' assessment of China's economy came just days before April 2, when US President Donald Trump's administration is planning to impose new reciprocal tariffs.

Goldman Sachs' analysis showed that despite a 20 percentage-point increase in US tariffs in the past two months, an index for Chinese trader uncertainty hasn't risen much, "implying that the tariff drag to domestic investment might be smaller than we currently expect."

Credit growth is also accelerating — a sign of potential growth as businesses and people borrow — and on-the-ground signs from Goldman Sachs' research teams indicate stability or marginal improvements in several key sectors, including property.

Meanwhile, stock markets have been buoyed by a tech-led rally prompted by the rise of the cost-efficient AI model DeepSeek and Chinese leader Xi Jinping's meeting with private sector entrepreneurs last month as a sign of endorsement.

To be sure, much of China's current economic fundamentals have not changed. Industrial activity and investment in manufacturing are still outperforming, while property activity remains depressed. Inflation also remains "too low" and employment remains challenging, wrote the Goldman Sachs analysts.

Despite government initiatives, including a trade-in program to incentivize new purchases, consumption is still slow — although there are bright spots.

"While there has been no meaningful rebound in overall consumption, our consumer analysts note signs of bottoming out: the seasonal consumption pull-back after the Lunar New Year holiday was better than feared; pricing and promotion trends appeared to be more stable and less aggressive than before," wrote Goldman Sachs's analysts.

Lynn Song, the chief economist of Greater China at ING, wrote in a note last week that China's consumption is on a "gradual recovery momentum" as retail sales in the first two months of the year beat expectations. The growth was boosted by items under the trade-in program, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones.

Even spending on discretionary items that did not benefit from government trade-in programs got off to a "decent start" this year, said Song, citing growth rates of 5.4%, 4.4%, and 3.3% in retail spending for gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and apparel, respectively.

Such budding positive signs could help drive even more positivity.

"Just like in 2023 and 2024 when various negative forces amplified one another and yielded outsized headwinds to growth, positive catalysts in early 2025 have the potential to reinforce each other and generate a more virtuous cycle," wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Still, nearly all economists and analysts are cautious about calling for a full-on recovery for China's economy. It could be weighed down by issues such as Trump's trade war and the prolonged property downturn.

As Nomura economists wrote in a note last week, better-than-expected Chinese economic data "mask serious underlying challenges."

• No Western companies have applied to return to Russia, a top Russian official said.
• He signaled tough negotiations for returning Western firms.
• Trump's Moscow talks have spurred speculation about a corporate return to Russia.

No Western companies have applied to return to Russia, a top Russian official said on Thursday — a contrast against recent active speculation about a corporate return to the market.

"No one has officially applied yet, only informally testing the waters so to say," said Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, according to TASS state news agency.

The Trump administration has been seeking a cease-fire deal with Moscow, spurring discussions about a return of Western businesses to Russia.

Western brands "will be waiting for their management to give a signal," Medvedev said.

Companies that left Russia include fast-food giant McDonald's and coffee chain Starbucks.

Medvedev indicated it wouldn't be easy for the foreign companies — who he said left on their own accord — to return to Russia, as the country's businesses have filled their shoes.

"Our companies have taken many niches by now, well done to them. New expertise, new production sites, and even whole sectors appearing amid sanctions have emerged. They fairly earned their place in the sun, and they are ours, Russian," Medvedev said on Thursday.

Medvedev's comments echo those made by Anton Alikhanov, the Russian industry and trade minister, who said last month that Russia was "not waiting for anyone with open arms" and that there would be "a price to pay for past decisions."

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on his officials' stance, per TASS.

"To prevent cases when the owners sold their business in Russia at a bargain price essentially left it to its fate, and now they want to buy the asset back for the same peanuts. It shouldn't be like that, that's not the way it works," Putin said. "The market situation has changed, the companies have become stronger, increased their capitalization and are valued differently."

Caution ahead

More than three years into the war in Ukraine, 483 foreign companies have left the Russian market completely, according to the Leave Russia database from the Kyiv School of Economics.

The exit of foreign businesses created winners at home in Russia, some of whom picked up assets at fire sale prices. They would likely need to be compensated to give up their businesses.

"Freely allowing foreign companies back in is going to diminish their profit streams and make life a lot more competitive, so if that is going to happen, Russia wants some kind of compensation for liberalizing its market," said David Szakonyi, a specialist in Russia's political economy at George Washington University, told Business Insider last month.

Avtovaz, the former Russian partner of Renault, said last month that the French carmaker would need to pay about $1.3 billion if it wishes to return after the war.

Despite the lure of the large Russian market, analysts have recently said that businesses are likely to be cautious about a return to the country, even if sanctions are lifted.

Russia's wartime economy is facing multiple issues, including high inflation, currency volatility, and sky-high interest rates. Putin's ironclad reign also presents concerns about the rule of law and safety.

Investors are likely to remain cautious after corporate nationalization and asset seizures in the past few years that redistributed international corporate wealth to the Russian state and oligarchs.