• Germany's center-right alliance looks set to win the country's latest federal election.
• The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are set to win about 29% of the vote, exit polls say.
• The far-right Alternative for Germany party is set to take second place.

Germany's center-right alliance looks set to win the country's latest federal election, which comes at a critical moment for Europe's largest economy.

Early exit polls show the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, at about 29%, with the Elon Musk-backed Alternative for Germany in second at about 19.5%.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party is set to come in third, the polls showed.

Single parties rarely win majorities in German elections, so Friedrich Merz's CDU will need the support of one or more parties to secure a majority in government. His most likely options are the SDP and/or the Green Party.

The snap election followed the collapse of Germany's governing three-party coalition in November after Scholz fired then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the chair of the Free Democratic Party, after Lindner rejected Scholz's demand to suspend Germany's debt brake, which requires the federal government to limit annual net borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.

Scholz called a vote of confidence which he then lost in December, paving the way for early national elections.

The CDU/CSU bloc had been projected to win the vote, polling at around 30% in the run-up to the election.

The CDU's popularity seems to have been boosted by its harder line on major policy issues such as migration, pledging to enforce stricter border controls and accelerate asylum proceedings.

It also wants to retain Germany's debt brake, cut corporate tax rates to a maximum of 25%, and "eliminate unnecessary red tape."

The CDU has also pledged continued support to Ukraine.

The vote comes at a pivotal time for Berlin, which faces an increasingly assertive Trump administration that has threatened tariffs on the EU and looked to sideline Europe on negotiations with Russia over the Ukraine war.

Germany is a leading NATO member and a key provider of military aid to Ukraine — and it will play an important role in carving out Europe's future relations with the Trump administration.

After several historic regional election results and strong support from Musk, the AfD came into the elections in a jubilant mood.

Musk — who appeared virtually at a party campaign event alongside AfD leader Alice Weidel in January — has praised the group's staunchly anti-immigration stance.

"Only the AfD can save Germany," Musk posted on X in December.

• Investors have been piling cash into cricket in recent years.
• They are targeting the sport's global appeal and new short-format competitions.
• Investors include Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and India's billionaire Ambani family.

Cricket has never quite captured the American audience, but it is fast becoming one of the hottest investments in the US.

Billionaires and tech executives are just some of the investors spending big on the game as they eye up its huge global appeal and new tournaments designed to appeal to younger audiences.

A recent auction of franchises in the UK's The Hundred — a short-format cricket league launched in 2021 — saw investors from Silicon Valley, New York, and India pile cash into the competition.

Business Insider has taken a look at some of the big names investing in the sport.

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO

The Microsoft CEO was part of a consortium of 11 tech executives who agreed to a reported £145 million (roughly $180 million) deal for a 49% stake in The Hundred's London Spirit team.

It's not the first time Nadella has put money into the sport. He was among the lead investors in the US's Major League Cricket and co-owns the league's Seattle Orcas team.

Speaking ahead of the 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup, Nadella told Bloomberg that cricket was a "big deal" for him.

"I love the sport, and I'm glad that it's now being played even in the United States," he said.

Sundar Pichai, Google CEO

Pichai was another member of the elite consortium that made headlines with its investment in the Spirit.

The Google exec is also a long-time fan of the sport and has said he dreamed of being a cricketer when he was growing up. In an interview with the BBC in 2021, he put his skills to the test and took up both bat and ball against the outlet's Amol Rajan on the Google campus.

Shantanu Narayen, Adobe CEO

Like Nadella, Narayen was a member of the tech consortium and also previously invested in Major League Cricket. He is part of the MLC's San Francisco Unicorn team, which is owned by Rocketship.vc partners Venky Harinarayan and Anand Rajaraman.

Speaking with CNBC-TV18 in June, Narayen said he was continuing to try to build the sport in the US.

"The question is how do you encourage that farm system?" he said. "Whether it's Satya or me, we love cricket, and we'll continue to champion it."

Nikesh Arora, CEO of Palo Alto Networks

Arora led the group that purchased the Spirit.

In a post on LinkedIn following the deal, the CEO said he was excited to partner with Lord's — known as "The Home of Cricket" — and his fellow techies to support The Hundred.

"A strong passion for sports brings us all together, Cricket is the second most popular sport in the world. Time to put the hundreds on the map," he wrote.

In an interview with The Times of London, Arora called it a "one-of-a-kind asset."

"We might have paid higher than we thought but we were keen to get the asset and I talked to many of my passionate consortium members and we all figured we'd keep stretching until it became uncomfortable," he added.

The consortium also includes Indian media tycoon Satyan Gajwani and Sequoia's Jim Goetz, per Arora.

India's billionaire Ambani family

Mukesh Ambani, the chairman of the multinational conglomerate Reliance Industries, is India's richest person, with a net worth of nearly $90 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

His company reportedly purchased a 49% stake in the Oval Invincibles team worth £60 million (around $74 million).

Reliance Industries also owns the Indian Premier League's Mumbai Indians, one of the league's most successful franchises.

The Ambani's cricket empire also includes the MLC's MI New York team, which won the first edition of the competition.

Egon Durban, co-CEO of Silver Lake Partners

Durban, co-CEO of the tech-focused private equity firm Silver Lake, was also part of Arora's tech consortium.

It's not Silver Lake's first foray into sports. In 2022, the company invested NZ$200 million (around $113 million as of today) in New Zealand Rugby Commercial, an entity that manages the commercial aspects of the All Blacks. Silver Lake increased its stake in NZR Commercial from 5.71% to 7.5% in 2023.

NFL legend Tom Brady

Outside tech execs and billionaires, Tom Brady-backed investment firm Knighthead Capital Management was announced this week as the preferred private investor for a minority stake in another Hundred team, the Birmingham Phoenix.

Subject to the deal's completion, Knighthead will acquire a 49% stake in the team, at a reported value of £40 million (almost $50 million).

The former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback entered into a partnership with the company in 2023 to become a minority owner of Birmingham City Football Club.

• A federal judge has temporarily blocked Elon Musk's DOGE from accessing Treasury Department material.
• The judge cited the risk of "irreparable harm" from the government's access policy.
• The order follows a lawsuit filed by 19 attorneys general seeking injunctive relief.

A federal judge has temporarily blocked Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency from accessing Treasury Department payment systems, citing the risk of "irreparable harm."

After attorneys general from 19 states filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US District Judge Paul Engelmayer issued an order early Saturday halting access to Treasury payment material for political appointees, "special government employees," and government employees not assigned by the Treasury Department.

"That is both because of the risk that the new policy presents of the disclosure of sensitive and confidential information and the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking," Engelmayer said.

The judge also ordered such officials granted access to the systems since January 20 "to immediately destroy any and all copies of material downloaded from the Treasury Department's records and systems."

The order is in place until Friday, February 14, when Engelmayer said the defendants, Trump and Bessent, should present arguments to Judge Jeannette Vargas.

Attorneys general from 19 states filed a lawsuit seeking to end what they called the government's "new and dangerous expanded access policy" and prevent Musk's DOGE program — which aims to slash government spending and regulations — from handling files containing personal and financial data.

New York Attorney General Letitia James, who filed the lawsuit, said in a video posted on X Friday that Musk's DOGE had "accessed the personal private information of tens of millions of Americans" over the past week.

"This unelected group, led by the world's richest man, is not authorized to have this information, and they explicitly sought this unauthorized access to illegally block payments that millions of Americans rely on, payments for healthcare, childcare and other essential programs," James said.

DOGE did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

• Industry and business leaders are reacting to President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.
• The Trump administration said Saturday it had imposed new levies on Canada, Mexico, and China.
• All three countries vowed to retaliate, threatening a trade war.

Billionaires, industry leaders, and executives are reacting to President Donald Trump's tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China.

The Trump administration said Saturday it had imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China.

The announcement sparked swift responses from all three countries. Canada and Mexico promised retaliatory tariffs, and China vowed "corresponding countermeasures."

Trump says the tariffs are necessary to pressure Mexico, Canada, and China to do more to stem the flow of illegal fentanyl into the United States. Addiction and overdoses related to fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, have gripped the United States for years, hollowing out towns and city neighborhoods all over the country. The drug is often produced in China and smuggled over US borders.

"Trump is taking bold action to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable to their promises of halting illegal immigration and stopping poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country," the White House said in a statement on Saturday.

Business leaders, however, are urging Trump to reconsider, fearing a global trade war that could wreak havoc on American industries.

Mark Cuban, billionaire entrepreneur

In a post on Bluesky, Cuban warned that the new levies would cost people money and hurt businesses.

"I'm going to put my rich guy hat on and say I hope that Mexico and Canada issue equal, retaliatory tariffs and stick to them for an extended period," Cuban wrote.

"I apologize to all the people it will cost money and the businesses it will hurt. But it's the only way for tariffs to be seen for what they are."

Tobi Lütke, Shopify CEO

In a post on X, Lütke, the CEO of the Canadian firm Shopify, said he was disappointed with the US tariffs and Canada's government's response.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday that Canada would impose 25% tariffs on C$155 billion (around $106 billion) of US goods following the Trump administration's decision.

But Lütke said hitting back would "not lead to anything good."

"Canada thrives when it works with America together. Win by helping America win," he wrote. "These tariffs are going to be devastating to so many people's lives and small businesses."

Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Mexican billionaire

Pliego, the chairman of the retail and banking conglomerate Grupo Elektra, slammed the tariffs in a series of posts on X but said Mexico should not retaliate.

"As things stand, there is nothing to do but endure this misfortune imposed on us," he wrote. "Perhaps, with the passage of time, more prepared and sensible minds will prevail in the USA and things will change, but that is not in our hands."

"What we definitely SHOULD NOT DO is play the 'Boy Hero' and throw ourselves into the void, by putting MORE taxes on Mexican citizens, who are already screwed by Trump's actions," he added.

Aluminum Association

The Aluminum Association has urged Trump to exempt Canada from the tariffs, saying it was vital to help protect jobs and local manufacturers.

In a statement on Saturday, Charles Johnson, the president and CEO of the association, which represents aluminum production and jobs in the United States, welcomed Trump's efforts to "support American manufacturing" but said the industry's strength relied on imports from the north.

"Thanks to robust domestic demand and coming investment, the US aluminum industry needs a steady and predictable supply of primary, secondary and scrap aluminum," Johnson said. "Today, much of that metal comes from North American trading partners, especially Canada."

United Steelworkers

The USW, representing 850,000 workers in metals, mining, and other industries, has also called for Trump to reconsider tariffs on Canada.

In a statement, USW International President David McCall said the union had "long called for systemic reform of our broken trade system, but lashing out at key allies like Canada is not the way forward."

"Canada has proven itself time and again to be one of our strongest partners when it comes to national security, and our economies are deeply integrated," the statement continued.

National Association of Manufacturers

NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said manufacturers were already facing increasing cost pressures and that the latest tariffs on Canada and Mexico threatened "to upend the very supply chains that have made US manufacturing more competitive globally."

"The ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers," Timmons added. "Ultimately, manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs, undermining our ability to sell our products at a competitive price and putting American jobs at risk."

National Association of Home Builders

The NAHB said the tariffs on Canada and Mexico could increase construction costs and ultimately lead to higher home prices.

"More than 70% of the imports of two essential materials that home builders rely on—softwood lumber and gypsum (used for drywall)—come from Canada and Mexico, respectively," NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said in a statement.

"NAHB urges the administration to reconsider this action on tariffs."

National Retail Federation

David French, the executive vice president of government relations for the National Retail Federation, said in a statement the trade association backs Trump's push to solidify trade ties and ensure that the US has favorable trade conditions.

However, French called the tariffs on the three countries a "serious step."

"We strongly encourage all parties to continue negotiating to find solutions that will strengthen trade relationships and avoid shifting the costs of shared policy failures onto the backs of American families, workers and small businesses," he said in a statement.

"The retail industry is committed to working with President Trump and his administration to achieve his campaign promises, including strengthening the US economy, extending his successful Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and ensuring that American families are protected from higher costs," he added.

Distilled Spirits Council of the US, the Mexican Chamber of the Tequila Industry, and Spirits Canada

In a joint statement, the Distilled Spirits Council of the US, the Mexican Chamber of the Tequila Industry, and Spirits Canada, said the implementation of tariffs threatens the growth of trade in spirits across the three countries, a major issue given setbacks related to COVID-19 and inflation.

"Our associations are committed to working collaboratively with all stakeholders to explore solutions that prevent potential tariffs on distilled spirits," the groups said in their statement. "We are deeply concerned that US tariffs on imported spirits from Canada and Mexico will significantly harm all three countries and lead to a cycle of retaliatory tariffs that negatively impacts our shared industry."

"Maintaining fair and reciprocal duty-free access for all distilled spirits is crucial for supporting jobs and shared growth across North America," they added.

American Automotive Policy Council

Matt Blunt, former governor of Missouri and president of the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents Ford Motor, General Motors, and Stellantis, told BI that he doesn't believe that vehicles and parts that meet the USMCA's requirements — agreed upon by the US, Canada, and Mexico in 2020 — should be subject to increased tariffs.

"Our American automakers, who invested billions in the US to meet these requirements, should not have their competitiveness undermined by tariffs that will raise the cost of building vehicles in the United States and stymie investment in the American workforce," Blunt said.

Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, representing more than 200,000 businesses, called Trump's tariffs "self-defeating" and "profoundly disturbing" in a statement.

"Our supply chains are so deeply integrated that you can't unwind them overnight," wrote Laing, "Which is why if President Trump truly wanted to bring down costs for Americans, he would be looking at strengthening our trade ties, not tearing them apart."

Laing recounted how the US relies on Canadian imports, such as crude oil and critical minerals, and said that Canada's "job number one" right now is to build resilience and provide security to Canadian families and businesses that are "rightly scared" by the tariffs.

"If we can't trade south, let's diversify our trading partners and dismantle unnecessary internal trade barriers to keep goods and services flowing north, east, and west," she added, "A strong, united, and competitive Canadian economy will thrive no matter what gets thrown our way."

American Petroleum Institute

Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, with some 600 members that produce and distribute the majority of the nation's energy, called energy markets "highly integrated" and Canadian crude oil "critical" for American consumers in a statement.

"The US is the largest market for Canadian crude oil exports and Mexico is the No. 1 destination for US refined product exports," said Sommers, "We will continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs."

United Auto Workers Union

Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers Union, said in a statement on Saturday that his union "supports aggressive tariff action to protect American manufacturing jobs as a good first step to undoing decades of anti-worker trade policy."

According to the UAW website, the union has over 400,000 active members and more than 580,000 retired members in the US, Canada, and Puerto Rico.

"If Trump is serious about bringing back good blue collar jobs destroyed by NAFTA, the USMCA, and the WTO, he should go a step further and immediately seek to renegotiate our broken trade deals," Fain added.

• The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, took place this week.
• The event saw world leaders, executives, and celebrities come together for a week of networking and parties.
• Business Insider has put together some photos from the event.

With the curtain drawn on yet another World Economic Forum in Davos, the picturesque Swiss town will once again slink back out of the limelight.

But this year's event — which coincided with Donald Trump's return to the White House — will likely linger in the memory.

2025's forum saw a host of world leaders, executives, and celebrities come together in the Alpine town to discuss some of the hottest global topics, including AI, the workplace, DOGE, and social media.

It also saw protests, parties, and a virtual address from Trump himself.

Business Insider's editor in chief Jamie Heller was on the ground alongside BI's international editor Spriha Srivastava, deputy editor Dan DeFrancesco, and senior correspondent Hugh Langley.

Here's a look at the week through their eyes.

The Alpine town, which doubles as a ski resort, has hosted the WEF since 1971.

This year's event saw Donald Trump back in the White House. He made a virtual address to a packed out room.

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi was among the many execs to make the trip to Switzerland.

Other famous faces included Bill Nye, who spoke with Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis.

AI was once again high on the agenda.

BI's Spriha Srivastava moderated a number of panels at this year's forum.

Security was tight at the event, which included world leaders like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Protesters made their voices heard on issues like the climate crisis.

Some of the latest tech was on display throughout the week, including the Apple Vision Pro.

Robotic dogs also got a runout.

• Diageo has denied reports that it is considering selling Guinness or its stake in Moët Hennessy.
• Bloomberg had reported that the company was reviewing its portfolio.
• Diageo said in a statement on Sunday that it had "no intention to sell either."

Drinks giant Diageo has denied reports that it is considering selling Guinness or its stake in Moët Hennessy.

In a statement on Sunday, the company responded to "recent media speculation" and said that it had "no intention to sell either."

Bloomberg reported on Friday that Diageo was reviewing its portfolio and weighing up spinning off or selling Guinness. The report said Diageo's stake in Moët Hennessy was also being reviewed.

"We will next update the market with Interim results on 4 February 2025 and we look forward to hosting our Guinness investor and analyst day on 19/20 May 2025," Diageo said in its statement.

The company's share price surged by around 4% on Friday following the reports that it was considering a sale.

Diageo is a global leader in alcoholic beverages. Its portfolio also includes brands such as Johnnie Walker, Captain Morgan, and Don Julio.

Guinness has enjoyed increasing popularity in recent years and has captured younger generations of drinkers. Celebrities have also boosted its profile, with stars like Kim Kardashian posting photos with the beverage. Singer Olivia Rodrigo also wore a "Guinness is good 4 U" T-shirt while performing in Dublin last year.

Trends like "splitting the G," a game in which drinkers aim to take a big sip so that the drink comes to halfway down the "G" on the glass, have also helped boost its popularity.

Guinness saw a spike in demand in the run-up to the holiday period — leading to Diageo rationing supplies.

Last year, the company sold its majority stake in Guinness Nigeria to the Singapore-headquartered company Tolaram.

• TikTok says it is "restoring service" in the United States.
• The company had turned off its app for its 170 million US users on Saturday.
• President-elect Donald Trump said he will issue an executive order on Monday to delay a TikTok ban.

TikTok said on Sunday it is "restoring service" after shutting down its app in the United States to comply with a divest-or-ban law.

The app began coming back online for US users first through web browsers and later on the mobile app.

The company told advertising partners on Sunday that it would soon become available for the majority of US users, but they should expect "some temporary service instability," according to a memo obtained by Business Insider.

"In agreement with our service providers, TikTok is in the process of restoring service," TikTok wrote in a statement to BI. "We thank President Trump for providing the necessary clarity and assurance to our service providers that they will face no penalties providing TikTok to over 170 million Americans and allowing over 7 million small businesses to thrive."

President-elect Donald Trump said on social media on Sunday morning he would issue an executive order to extend the time before "the law's prohibitions take effect," adding that "there will be no liability for any company that helped keep TikTok from going dark" before the order.

The company said it will work with President Trump on a "long-term solution that keeps TikTok in the United States."

A message appearing on TikTok on Sunday after the app came back online said that TikTok is back "as a result of President Trump's efforts."

TikTok switched off its app for its 170 million US users on Saturday, shortly before a legally imposed deadline for owner ByteDance to sell the US version of the app or effectively cease operating in the country. Apple and Google have both removed TikTok from their stores.

The TikTok shutdown followed a drawn-out legal battle over the ban-or-divest law, which was passed by Congress last year. The law required TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app's US operations by January 19 or be banned.

As the deadline neared, a message on the app popped up at around 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday: "Sorry, TikTok isn't available right now."

"A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the US. Unfortunately, that means you can't use TikTok for now. We are fortunate that President Trump has indicated that he will work with us on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. Please stay tuned!"

• Meta has begun laying people off, after saying it would cut jobs by targeting "low performers."
• Microsoft also made performance-related cuts in January.
• Layoffs can be traumatic for workers, and the added tag of "low performer" can make it worse.

"Low performers" are in the firing line.

Meta began laying people off Monday after saying it would target its lowest performers. Microsoft also sent termination letters last month, telling people their performance had "not met minimum performance standards."

Both companies' announcements in January about the layoffs triggered an online debate. Targeting the lowest performers may be logical for the companies' bottom lines, but the publicity surrounding layoffs can give those a negative label that can compound the difficulties of being laid off.

After Meta's January announcement about laying off "low performers," Jan Tegze, a Czech Republic-based tech recruiter, wrote in a post on LinkedIn that "a low performer' at Meta could be a rockstar anywhere else."

But now, these "people have to job hunt with this label hanging over them. Every recruiter, every hiring manager will see these headlines," he added.

Jennifer Dulski, the founder and CEO of Rising Team and a management lecturer at Stanford Graduate School of Business, said on LinkedIn that it was "reasonable to let people go for lower performance than others on the team, and to share that reasoning with them."

"However, publicly branding employees as low performers serves no one — not the individuals, not the remaining team, and not the company's reputation," she added.

"That will stick with and damage many people's careers. It's unnecessary and punitive," Jonathan Shottan, chief product and content officer at Tonal, said.

Previous research has suggested that finding a job may be more difficult for laid-off workers due to the stigma they may encounter among potential employers.

And with job seekers also facing a slowing job market and new hurdles such as the ever-expanding rollout of AI in workplaces, the added "low performer" tag may make the job search even trickier.

Others defended Meta and Microsoft's announcements, however.

"Who would you fire? Your top performers?" One LinkedIn user wrote in response to Tegze's post. "There isn't a company in the world who would let go of anyone that they didn't think was their lowest performers."

"What if.... they 'are' actually low performers," another said. "Stop jumping on the let's bash Zuk bandwagon," an apparent reference to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who announced the layoffs in an internal memo sent on January 14 and seen by Business Insider.

He told employees that he had "decided to raise the bar on performance management" and act quickly to "move out low-performers."

The memo said the cuts would affect 5% of the company's workforce, equivalent to about 3,600 roles.

Ethan Evans, a former Amazon vice president, had some tips for those caught in the layoffs to help ensure they give themselves the best chance of getting back to work.

Writing on X the day after Meta's announcement, he advised those hit by cuts targeting low performers to carefully and openly explain their situation to hiring managers.

Evans said it can be natural for recruiters to wonder if an interviewee has performance problems that they should avoid and that "your ability to respond calmly and confidently will matter just as much as the actual content of your answer."

"If your entire team or division was cut, this is the strongest story. Be clear about that and say, 'My entire team was cut.' Point them to a news story that verifies your claim if you can," he said.

He added: "Never badmouth your old boss or company."

"Just like dating, no one wants to start a relationship with someone who isn't over their ex."

Business Insider contacted Meta and Microsoft for comment.

• Israel's government approved a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas this week.
• The cease-fire began on Sunday as Hamas released its first few hostages.
• 3 hostages returned to Israel, where they were treated at a hospital near Tel Aviv.

A cease-fire in the war in Gaza went into effect on Sunday morning after an almost three-hour delay.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office announced that the cease-fire would commence at 11:15 a.m. local time.

The announcement came after Israel said it had received the names of hostages due to be released on Sunday.

Under the terms of the agreement, the cease-fire will last six weeks. During this period, 33 Israeli hostages are scheduled to be exchanged for 737 Palestinian prisoners.

The first three Israeli hostages — Emily Damari, Romi Gonen, and Doron Steinbrecher — were released on Sunday. Israel said the three women were returned to Israeli territory and underwent an initial medical assessment.

President Joe Biden had announced the deal in a farewell address earlier this week.

"After eight months of nonstop negotiation, my administration — by my administration, a ceasefire and a hostage deal has been reached by Israel and Hamas, the elements of which I laid out in great detail in May of this year," Biden said.

US officials helped broker the deal in Qatar.

In a statement on X on Saturday, Majed Al Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, confirmed that the cease-fire would begin on Sunday but advised caution to Gazans: "We advise the inhabitants to take precaution, exercise the utmost caution, and wait for directions from official sources."

How the cease-fire agreement could be implemented

The deal is set to include multiple phases.

The first stage is expected to include 33 hostages — most of whom are alive — released on "humanitarian" grounds, an Israeli spokesperson told reporters at a briefing. This will consist of women, children, older people, as well as hostages who are sick.

A second phase, which is still being worked out, would see a "permanent end" to the war, Biden has said.

The president added that this phase would include the release of the remainder of the living hostages, with the rest of the Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza.

In the third phase, any remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families, and a major reconstruction plan would be set in motion for Gaza.

So far, 117 hostages have been returned alive to Israel, including 105 freed as part of a prisoner exchange in November 2023.

The cease-fire deal intends to end the brutal conflict, which has seen large areas of Gaza destroyed and left the militant group severely battered. The Hamas-run health ministry says Israel's military offensive in the coastal enclave has killed more than 46,000 people. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Negotiations for a cease-fire deal have been ongoing for many months.

President-elect Donald Trump said his victory in November directly contributed to the deal coming to fruition. "We have achieved so much without even being in the White House," he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

• Donald Trump's suggestion for increased NATO defense spending has divided European countries.
• Trump called for NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.
• Many European NATO members have struggled to meet the current 2% defense spending goal.

Donald Trump's suggestion that NATO members should allocate 5% of their GDP on defense has prompted mixed reactions in Europe.

The president-elect floated the figure — which is more than double the current target — at a press conference on Tuesday.

"I think NATO should have 5%," he said. "They can all afford it, but they should be at 5%, not 2%."

Currently, no alliance member spends 5% of GDP on defense.

NATO estimates showed Poland was set to lead the alliance in defense spending as a percentage of GDP in 2024, with Warsaw investing more than 4% of its economic output on defense. Estonia and the US followed, spending 3.43% and 3.38% respectively.

Trump's remarks sparked dismay among some European officials.

Ralf Stegner, a member of Germany's Social Democratic Party, wrote in a Facebook post that Trump's comments were "delusional and truly insane."

"Where are the resources supposed to come from to solve the real-world problems?" he said. "We have too much poverty, environmental destruction, civil wars, migration, and too few resources to combat this more actively."

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto cast doubt on the feasibility of Trump's proposal: "I don't think it will be five, which at this time would be impossible for almost all nations in the world," he said, per Italian news agency Ansa.

But Crosetto added that he did expect the target to be raised above 2%.

Italy was on track to spend 1.49% of GDP on defense in 2024, while Germany — which is gearing up for a snap federal election in February — was set for 2.12%.

For nations closer to Russia and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, increasing defense expenditure may not seem like such a bad idea, however.

Warsaw has already signaled its support for Trump's demand, with the Polish defense minister telling the Financial Times that Poland "can be the transatlantic link between this challenge set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe."

In Estonia, the shared border with Russia has led to heightened tensions and an increasing focus on defense.

Reacting to Trump's comments, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told Politico that it was the "message that Estonia has been advocating for years."

"This is a clear signal to Putin that he should not dare to test NATO's nerves and that we are prepared for it," he said.

At a Northern Group partners' meeting last year, Estonia's defense minister urged allies to increase spending to 2.5% to counter the threat of Russian aggression.

Sweden, which has also increased defense spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, also backed the call for increased spending.

"There is a broad consensus in Sweden that we need to invest more in our defense," the country's foreign minister, Maria Malmer Stenergard, said, per Politico. "US governments have long urged European countries to increase their defense spending and to bear more of their own defense costs. We share this view."

Lithuania has also prioritized defense spending amid the growing Russian threat. Its president, Gitanas Nausėda, recently called on European countries to "show more support for the US global agenda" by increasing their share of the defense burden.

For his part, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said Europe knows it must spend more on defense.

During a trip to Warsaw in November, Rutte praised Poland for its defense spending efforts, saying it sent "a clear message not only to our adversaries but also to the United States. That Europe understands it must do more to ensure our shared security. And that starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities."

Nevertheless, analysts say Trump's 5% figure is unrealistic.

"Many European NATO countries are funding higher military spending through debt, cuts in other expenditure areas, and proposals to increase taxes," Nan Tian, a senior researcher and program director at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme, told Business Insider. "These existing increases would push military spending to a level about half of what Trump proposed of 5% of GDP, thus I don't think this is a realistic target."

"5% of GDP level would be higher than the same countries spent at the height of the Cold War," Tian added.

Ruther Deyermond, a senior lecturer at King's College London's Department of War Studies, went further, calling Trump's suggestion a "coercive tactic."

"It looks as if the point of the 5% demand is for it to be unachievable - the intention seems to be that states will fail," Deyermond wrote on X. "It's a coercive tactic (pay up or your country gets it) that also signals that NATO is no longer a meaningful alliance."

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers.
• Zelenskyy said the two soldiers were wounded and had been taken to Kyiv.
• South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has reportedly confirmed their capture.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has captured two wounded North Korean soldiers.

In a statement posted on X on Saturday, Zelenskyy said the soldiers had been captured in Russia's Kursk region and had been taken to Kyiv, where they were now "communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine." He added that they were receiving the "necessary medical assistance."

Zelenskyy also shared images of two injured men, but he did not provide evidence that they were North Korean.

"This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea's involvement in the war against Ukraine," Zelenskyy said, adding that he had instructed Ukraine's security service to allow journalists access to the captured soldiers.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has reportedly confirmed their capture.

The NIS told AFP that it had "confirmed that the Ukrainian military captured two North Korean soldiers on January 9 in the Kursk battlefield in Russia".

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has also shared some details from their questioning of the pair.

The SBU said the North Korean soldiers did not speak Ukrainian, English, or Russian, "so communication with them is carried out through interpreters of Korean," with help from the NIS.

The SBU said that one soldier told interrogators that he believed he had been sent for training, not to fight in the war against Ukraine.

It added that one of the soldiers was found with a Russian military ID card "issued in the name of another person," while the other had no documentation with him.

The soldier with the ID card stated that he was born in 2005 and that he had been serving as a rifleman in the North Korean military since 2021.

The other was born in 1999 and had been a scout sniper in the North Korean army since 2016, the SBU said, citing "preliminary information."

Pyongyang reportedly began sending troops to Russia in October.

White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said last month that Russia was using North Korean troops to carry out "human wave" assaults on Ukrainian positions, resulting in heavy casualties.

"It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses," Kirby said. "These North Korean soldiers appear to be highly indoctrinated, pushing attacks even when it is clear that those attacks are futile."

Zelenskyy said last month that preliminary estimates suggested that more than 3,000 of Pyongyang's soldiers had been killed or wounded in Kursk.

He previously said that Russian forces had been trying "to literally burn the faces of North Korean soldiers killed in battle" in an effort to "conceal" their losses.

In December, a North Korean soldier believed to be the first to be captured by Ukrainian forces died from his injuries, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said, per Yonhap news agency.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

• Wildfires are burning across Los Angeles County.
• Hundreds of thousands of people are under evacuation orders or warnings.
• Insured losses could top $20 billion, JPMorgan analysts estimated — the most-ever in California.

The Los Angeles area is battling a series of massive wildfires that continue to rip through its picturesque mountains and hillsides — creating a hellscape of burned-out neighborhoods and upended livelihoods that could ultimately be the most costly fire disaster in California history.

Authorities on Friday night expanded the evacuation zone related to the largest blaze, the Palisades Fire, east toward Santa Monica, less than 1.5 miles from the iconic Santa Monica Pier. The zone now encompasses the famous Getty Center, home of the Getty Museum.

Officials have now ordered over 153,000 residents to evacuate and warned another 166,000 to be ready to leave if the fires continue to spread. About 38,000 acres have burned. Officials have reported 13 deaths related to the fire as of Saturday.

At a press conference on Friday evening, officials managing the Eaton fire, which now spans over 14,000 acres and is one of the largest and deadliest, said they did not expect the blaze to spread significantly over the weekend due to more moderate wind conditions. However, officials said they are anticipating another high-wind event early next week. It was strong Santa Ana gusts of up to 90 miles per hour that first whipped the fires into a frenzy earlier this week.

JPMorgan analysts said the blazes tearing through the region could lead to over $20 billion in insured losses — and about $50 billion in total economic losses. That would make these conflagrations "significantly more severe" than the Camp Fires that struck the state in 2018 and racked up $10 billion in insured losses, the current record.

Los Angeles District Attorney Nathan Hochman described the scene in LA as apocalyptic, as thick bands of smoke surrounded the city. Los Angeles County is home to about 10 million people.

"Not since the 1990s, when Los Angeles was hit with the fires, the flood, the earthquake, and the riots, have I seen such disaster occur here in our city," Hochman said at a briefing, referring to the Northridge Earthquake and the disturbances in the wake of the Rodney King verdict.

Erroneous emergency alerts telling residents to evacuate areas unaffected by the fires further heightened panic in the region. Kevin McGowan, the director of the Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management, apologized for the messages at Friday's conference.

"There is an extreme amount of frustration, anger, fear, with regards to the erroneous messages that have been being sent out through the wireless emergency alert system. I can't express enough how sorry I am for this experience," he said.

He reassured residents that resolving the issue is his "top priority" and that he has technical specialists working to identify the root cause. "I implore everyone to not disable the messages on your phone," he said.

Late Thursday, the Federal Aviation Administration warned civilians against flying unauthorized drones in areas undergoing firefighting efforts, after a firefighting plane sustained wing damage from a civilian drone and had to be grounded.

Satellite images of the LA fires showed the destruction left in their wake.

Starlink, Elon Musk's SpaceX subsidiary that provides satellite internet service, said Thursday that people in the Los Angeles area can use the company's network to text loved ones, contact 911, and receive emergency alerts.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Saturday announced that he's doubling the number of California National Guard personnel on the ground to 1,680 members.

"The men and women of the California National Guard are working day and night to help Los Angeles residents during their greatest time of need," he said in a statement.

Here's a look at the latest happenings in the main fires spreading throughout the area:

Palisades Fire

The Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades area north of Santa Monica was the first fire to strike the region on Tuesday morning. It has spread to over 21,500 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Around 11% of the fire is contained, it says.

Five people have died in the Palisades fire, according to the medical examiner's office.

Los Angeles City's Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a press briefing earlier this week that the Palisades Fire had damaged or destroyed over 5,300 structures.

Crowley would not confirm reports that the fire started in a resident's garden, saying the origin is still under investigation.

Some celebrities have lost homes in the blaze, including Paris Hilton and Billy Crystal.

On Thursday, a drone hit the wing of one of two Super Scooper planes fighting the wildfires, Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said at a Friday press conference. He said the plane was under urgent repairs and set to be flying again by Monday. "If you fly a drone at one of these brush fires all aerial operations will be shut down," he said.

Eaton Fire

The second-largest fire in Los Angeles County is the Eaton Fire, which started on Tuesday evening in the Pasadena-Altadena area at the foothills of the Angeles National Forest.

Eight people have died in the Eaton fire, Los Angeles County Sheriff Commander Tania E. Plunkett said at a press conference on Saturday afternoon.

The blaze has spread to over 14,100 acres, Marrone said at the Saturday conference, adding that over 7,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed and 15% of the fire is contained.

The cause of the fire remains "unknown," Marrone previously said.

Hurst Fire

The Hurst Fire, which began late on Tuesday night in the northern part of the San Fernando Valley, spread to 799 acres and is 76% contained, per Cal Fire.

In an X post on Thursday afternoon, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said the mandatory evacuation order for the Hurst Fire had been lifted.

Kenneth Fire

On Thursday, a small brush fire erupted at the Victory Trailhead near the border of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Marrone said that the fire had been stopped. It burned just over 1,000 acres, but no structures were reported damaged. It is 80% contained, per Cal Fire.

A mandatory evacuation order was issued for several neighborhoods near the fire.

LAPD said it had detained a possible arson suspect but could not confirm any connection to the fire.

An evacuation notice intended for residents impacted by the Kenneth Fire was mistakenly sent out across LA County due to a "technical error," County Supervisor Janice Hahn said in an X post.

Sunset Fire and others

The Sunset Fire broke out in the Runyon Canyon area of the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday evening, quickly spreading to scorch over 40 acres and threaten major LA landmarks.

As of Thursday morning, firefighters were able to stop the fire's forward progress, Crowley said.

All evacuation orders related to the Sunset Fire were lifted as of 7:30 a.m. Thursday, she added.

A large structure fire consumed two large homes in the Studio City area but firefighters were able to stop its forward growth at just one acre and prevent another brushfire, Crowley said.

Yet another fire, the Lidia Fire, started Wednesday afternoon in Acton near the Antelope Valley, about 20 miles northeast of the San Fernando Valley. It consumed 395 acres but is now 100% contained, according to CalFire.

The Woodley Fire, which began Wednesday morning in the southern part of the San Fernando Valley, has been suppressed and there are no current threats, Crowley said.

Patrols were monitoring the area for any flare-ups, she added.

Events canceled and landmarks closed as smoke chokes LA

Major and minor events alike have been canceled or postponed across the Los Angeles area as the city battles the fires.

The 30th Annual Critics Choice Awards, set for Sunday night, were rescheduled for January 26. A National Hockey League game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames, scheduled for Wednesday night at Crypto.com arena, was postponed. The LA Lakers rescheduled Thursday night's game.

Music venues across the city were also canceling or postponing their shows, including The Troubadour, The Wiltern, The Echo, the Kia Forum, Walt Disney Concert Hall, and others.

Flights into and out of LAX, Hollywood Burbank Airport, Ontario International Airport, and Santa Ana's John Wayne Airport were also experiencing delays and cancellations. LAX, however, remains open.

The fires are also shuttering tourist destinations in and around Los Angeles, which attracts nearly 50 million visitors a year.

The fires forced some Los Angeles-area landmarks to close, including the Hollywood sign, the Los Angeles Zoo, the Broad Museum, the Norton Simon Museum, the Getty Villa and Getty Center, Universal Studios Hollywood and Universal CityWalk, and the Griffith Observatory.

Airbnb told CNN that it would be allowing refunds for bookings in areas affected by the wildfires, following a viral social media post from a customer who said the company refused to offer her a refund.

California already struggled with an insurance crisis

The devastating fires this week will likely only worsen California's ongoing insurance crisis, where many homebuyers already struggle to get approved for loans, home insurance, and fire insurance — even in areas outside the typical risk zones.

In recent years, some insurance companies, like State Farm, have stopped accepting new home insurance policies in the state entirely, as wildfire risks have only increased.

Experts told Business Insider that prices are likely to continue rising for those who can still get insurance.

"I've seen numbers go up 200%, 300%, even 500% in a year," Nick Ramirez, the owner of a California insurance agency, told BI.

And as the fires' estimated damages already climb into the billions of dollars, some homeowners will have to rebuild without the help of insurance payouts.

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made a surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago on Saturday.
• Meloni received a rapturous welcome to Trump's Florida resort, per videos circulating on social media.
• The pair reportedly discussed tariffs and the arrest of an Italian journalist in Iran.

Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made a surprise visit to President-elect Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort on Saturday, just days before she's scheduled to meet with President Joe Biden.

Photos shared by the Italian government show Trump greeting Meloni and the pair posing at the entrance to the president-elect's Florida base.

While no official details of the meeting have been shared, Meloni and Trump are said to have discussed tariffs and the arrest in Iran of Cecilia Sala, an Italian journalist, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed person familiar with the matter.

The visit is also reported to have included a dinner and a screening of a new film called "The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice."

"This is very exciting, I'm here with a fantastic woman, the prime minister of Italy," Trump reportedly told the crowd at Mar-a-Lago. "She's really taken Europe by storm, and everyone else, and we're just having dinner tonight."

It comes as Meloni — who received a rapturous welcome to the Palm Beach estate, according to videos circulating on social media — is set to welcome Biden to Rome for an official visit from January 9 to 12.

Meloni has been calling on EU members to carve out a positive relationship with Trump ahead of his return to office.

In a speech to the Italian parliament in December, Meloni said it was "essential to maintain a pragmatic, constructive and open approach with the new Trump administration, exploiting areas of potential and fruitful EU-U.S. cooperation and trying to prevent commercial disputes that would certainly not be good for anyone," per Politico.

She has also forged a growing bond with Elon Musk, who is set to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency under Trump's incoming administration.

Following Trump's election win in November, Meloni took to X to announce that her "friend" Musk had been in touch.

"I am convinced that his commitment and vision will be an important resource for the United States and Italy, in a spirit of collaboration aimed at addressing future challenges," she wrote.

In June 2023, Meloni hosted Musk at the Italian prime minister's official residence, the Palazzo Chigi.

Meloni and the Tesla CEO reportedly discussed AI, birth rates, innovation, and European market rules.

The prime minister called the meeting "fruitful" and a "moment of great cordiality" in a post on X.

In December 2023, Musk was also the guest of honor at Meloni's "Atreju" political festival in Rome.

The topic of birth rates was on the agenda again, as Musk urged Italians and other developed nations to have more children.

For his part, Musk has called Meloni a "precious genius" who was "even more beautiful on the inside than she is on the outside."

Since his election, Trump has also welcomed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Argentinian President Javier Milei, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Mar-a-Lago.

Business Insider has contacted Meloni's office for comment.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded to criticism from billionaire Elon Musk.
• Musk called Scholz an "incompetent fool" and signaled his support for Germany's AfD party.
• In a new interview, Scholz said he was concerned about Musk backing the AfD.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded to criticism from Elon Musk in a new interview with a German magazine.

In the interview published in Stern on Saturday, Scholz said there was "nothing new" about criticism from "rich media entrepreneurs who do not appreciate social democratic politics and do not hide their opinions."

The key, he said, is to "keep your cool."

"There are many people on social media who want to attract attention with strong slogans," he continued. "The rule is: Don't feed the troll."

He added that he found it "far more concerning" that Musk supported "a partly far-right party like the AfD, which advocates rapprochement with Putin's Russia and seeks to weaken transatlantic relations."

Musk has sparked debate in Germany in recent weeks by calling Scholz an "incompetent fool" and signaling his support for AfD, the Alternative for Germany party.

The AfD was founded in 2013 as an anti-European Union party. More recently, it has taken a hard line on immigration, earning it the label of far-right in some political corners.

Musk — who is set to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency under President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration — has rejected the far-right label and publicly supported the AfD in posts on X, his social media platform.

Musk reshared a video in December by the right-wing influencer Naomi Seibt in which she criticized Friedrich Merz — a leading candidate to become Germany's next chancellor.

"Only the AfD can save Germany," Musk wrote in his post. He later reaffirmed his support for the AfD in an op-ed for the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag. Welt am Sonntag and Business Insider are both owned by Axel Springer SE.

In the article, Musk wrote: "The AfD advocates a controlled immigration policy that gives priority to integration and the preservation of German culture and security. This is not about xenophobia, but about ensuring that Germany does not lose its identity in the pursuit of globalization."

A number of German politicians have spoken out against Musk's comments, which have come just weeks before Germany holds a snap election in February.

In a post on X last month, Germany's health minister, Karl Lauterbach, said Musk "should not interfere in our politics" and that his platform "profits from hate and incitement and radicalizes people."

Musk is now due to hold a live discussion on January 9 with Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD and the party's nominee for chancellor. The chat is set to be held on X.

Germany isn't the only country where Musk has shown his support for right-wing leaders in recent months.

Musk has criticized UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and teased donations to the Reform Party, a right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage.

Musk has also backed Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is also considered right-wing, calling her a "precious genius" who was "even more beautiful on the inside than she is on the outside."

• The personal finance website WalletHub has ranked the best places to celebrate New Year's Eve this year.
• The site compared 100 of the biggest US cities on entertainment, food, costs, safety, and accessibility.
• Check out the top five cities to count down to 2025 here.

For those looking to ring in the New Year in style, you may be wondering where to find the best festive bang for your buck.

The personal finance website WalletHub has ranked the best places to celebrate New Year's Eve this year, using 26 metrics to evaluate three key areas for prospective partiers — entertainment and food, costs, and safety and accessibility.

The study looked at factors such as the legality of fireworks, nightlife options, alcohol and taxi prices, and neighborhood security.

Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale (100 representing the best conditions for budding NYE revelers). WalletHub then gave each city an overall score by determining their weighted averages across all metrics.

Here are WalletHub's top five cities to count down to 2025.

5. Chicago

Entertainment and food rank: 8

Costs rank: 76

Safety and accessibility rank: 52

Total score: 64.50

4. Las Vegas

Entertainment and food rank: 4

Costs rank: 80

Safety and accessibility rank: 48

Total score: 67.45

3. San Diego

Entertainment and food rank: 11

Costs rank: 56

Safety and accessibility rank: 27

Total score: 67.58

2. Orlando

Entertainment and food rank: 1

Costs rank: 53

Safety and accessibility rank: 89

Total score: 68.03

1. New York City

Entertainment and food rank: 6

Costs rank: 95

Safety and accessibility rank: 18

Total score: 68.67

• Trump's return to power comes as Ukraine struggles to stop Russia's advance.
• Trump says he'll move quickly to end the war, but Russia may be disinclined to negotiate now.
• Here are four scenarios for how the war could play out.

With the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its fourth year, attention is turning to President-elect Donald Trump and how his return to power may affect the conflict.

Trump looms as a distressing question mark for Ukraine, which has leaned into personal diplomacy to make its case in the weeks since his election. As a candidate, Trump called the war "a loser" and vowed to end it in 24 hours without saying how he would do so.

The US has provided the bulk of international security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing more than $60 billion so far. Drastic cuts or zeroing of this could enable Russia to achieve the decisive breakthrough it has so far been denied.

As both Kyiv and Moscow scramble to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of any changes Trump's administration may bring, Business Insider has taken a look at four ways the war could play out.

A cease-fire deal and frozen lines

The possibility of a temporary halt to the fighting has received renewed attention with Trump's reelection.

Trump, who has pledged to bring the war to a swift end when he returns to office, took to Truth Social on December 8 to call for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he said, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war, suggested such a deal could be achieved if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."

John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told Business Insider that Ukraine was seemingly moving away from its "maximal position" of getting back all its occupied territory but that it would want "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western nations reluctant to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome was the war being "frozen" roughly where it is now, he continued, adding that a "settlement is just too ambitious at this stage."

Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by force before launching a broader invasion in 2022. Putin, furthermore, has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictional, and many observers worry a pause of a few years will allow Russia to train more troops and stockpile more weapons ahead of another offensive.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that any peace deal brokered by Trump would likely involve some form of territorial concession.

"It's hard to imagine that it would be stable," Cancian said. "It's easy to imagine another war in a couple of years."

Long-term war

Another possibility is that Russia refuses to compromise and the fighting continues. War experts with the Institute for the Study of War think tank, for example, have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are not likely to seriously pursue negotiations while that continues.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant levels of continued Western aid, which could be a hard sell for Kyiv. Both Trump and the vice president-elect, JD Vance, have been openly skeptical of US support for Ukraine under the Biden administration.

It would also put further strain on Ukraine's manpower as well as its economy, which is already facing "intensifying" headwinds, as the International Monetary Fund said in a September update.

While Russia, too, is facing its own economic issues — the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% in October in an effort to combat high inflation — some analysts have said Moscow could go for years before it has to confront its overspending.

"For Ukraine, the long war is nothing short of disastrous," James Nixey, the director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in February. "The country cannot recruit anything like the numbers Russia can press into service. It also places greater value on human life than its opponent, meaning it inevitably suffers more from a protracted war of attrition."

However, a long war is likely to strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at what may be an unsustainable pace, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing its troop losses.

Russian victory

Putin wanted a swift military victory when his forces launched the full-scale invasion.

Almost three years later, that goal has been well and truly quashed, but Moscow could still claim victory — which would likely mean occupying more of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyy in favor of a deferential head-of-state.

For Kyiv, a worst-case scenario would see its forces' frontlines collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support, Cancian said.

In such an instance, Ukraine would likely be forced into ceding large chunks of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnipro potentially coming under Russian control through either annexation or effective oversight, he added.

Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine in recent months, straining Ukrainian defenses and compounding Kyiv's much-reported manpower shortage.

While Russia itself continues to suffer high casualties, it has been able to draw on vastly superior numbers while also adding extra recruits from North Korea to support its offensives.

Moscow has also appeared intent on avoiding distractions and keeping its focus on events in Ukraine, putting up little support to help its ally Bashar Assad as his regime collapsed in Syria — despite Russia's important military bases in the country.

In addition, Kyiv is now facing serious uncertainty in the form of Trump's imminent return, with some fearing he could cut aid to the country.

In a recent interview with Time Magazine, the president-elect said he wanted to "reach an agreement" rather than abandon Ukraine, but he added that he strongly disagreed with Biden's decision in November to allow the use of US-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russia, which Kyiv had long coveted.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia," Trump said. "Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse."

Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat

Ukrainians had harbored hope of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets said.

And while Putin's grip on power seems strong, the conflict has exposed some of the largest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries and protests over mobilization.

Russia's government is "authoritarian and it has control over the media, but it's still sensitive to public opinion," Cancian said, adding that it had likely avoided another round of mobilization as it did not want to "stir up domestic opposition," despite needing the manpower.

Washington has also pointed to North Korea's involvement in the war as a sign of the Kremlin's "desperation" and "weakness."

But with Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to the fighting, Russia's continued gains in the east, and Kyiv facing dwindling resources and drooping morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems off the cards for now.

Seth Jones, the president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, previously told BI that as long as Putin is in charge, it would be highly improbable that Russia's forces would retreat entirely. A Russian defeat, however, may threaten Putin's hold on power.

• South Korea's parliament has voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, according to local media.
• It comes after Yoon's attempt to impose martial law in South Korea in early December.
• Yoon survived a first impeachment vote last week.

South Korea's National Assembly has voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his decision to impose a short-lived martial law on December 3, according to the country's Yonhap news agency.

South Korea's parliament reportedly passed the motion by 204 votes to 85, with three lawmakers abstaining and eight votes nullified.

Yoon's decision to implement martial law earlier this month led to widespread protests in Seoul and calls for his resignation.

He later apologized and survived a first impeachment vote last weekend, which members of his People Power Party boycotted.

This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

• Bashar Assad's government in Syria collapsed on Sunday, ending his 24 years in power.
• Rebel forces led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept through Syria, seizing Damascus.
• Here's what we know about HTS.

Bashar Assad's 24-year rule came to an end on Sunday as rebels swept into Damascus, the Syrian capital.

Shortly after insurgents declared the city "free," Russia's foreign ministry announced Assad had resigned his position and left the country. Russian state news later reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he was granted asylum.

The collapse of Assad's government came after a coalition of opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive, seizing control of major cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs in a matter of days.

Syrians around the world celebrated the end of Assad's rule, which was marked by brutal suppression. His violent crackdown on peaceful anti-government protests in 2011, part of the Arab Spring uprisings, sparked a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, straining neighboring countries like Turkey and Lebanon.

World leaders conveyed cautious optimism after news of Assad's ouster, but uncertainty remains around what kind of government and leader will replace him.

One major player will almost certainly be HTS, which is led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq alongside a branch of Al Qaeda.

Jolani later returned to Syria, his homeland, where he fought with Jabhat Al-Nusra — an Al Qaeda offshoot formed in 2012 — and other rebel groups against Assad's forces.

Jolani severed his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 and formed a new group, which eventually became HTS in 2017. Since then, Jolani has portrayed himself as a more moderate leader to gain international legitimacy. Both the United States and the United Nations still list HTS as a terrorist organization.

In one 2021 interview with PBS Frontline, Jolani called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."

"Through our 10-year journey in this revolution, we haven't posed any threat to Western or European society: no security threat, no economic threat, nothing. That's why this designation is politicized," he said.

In recent years, HTS has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.

In Idlib, Jolani established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government, which has acted as a showcase for what his leadership could bring to a wider area.

Speaking about the Salvation Government in the PBS interview, Jolani said that while the situation in Idlib was not ideal, there was "a self-asserting model that was capable of running the affairs of a whole country under an Islamic rule."

While some have remained doubtful that the group has fully cut its links with Al Qaeda, it has put forth a message of inclusiveness and unity in recent days, calling for a peaceful transition of power and reassuring religious and ethnic minorities in Syria.

"In the future Syria … diversity is our strength, not a weakness," the group said in a statement to the Kurdish minority in Aleppo.

Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told Sky News that while Jolani and his group had changed, they remained "pretty hardline."

"It's PR, but the fact they are engaging in this effort at all shows they are no longer as rigid as they once were," he said, referencing video footage showing Jolani forbidding fighters from entering homes and telling them to protect citizens. "Old-school Al Qaeda or the Islamic State would never have done that."

HTS is only one part of an ideologically diverse opposition, and it remains to be seen if the coalition can peacefully share power and extend unified control over the whole country.

"If not, intra-Syrian territorial fragmentation, and the potential emergence of regional warlords and fiefdoms, will quickly grow," Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, told Business Insider.

• Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has resigned and fled his country.
• Rebel forces said they seized control of the capital, Damascus.
• The collapse of Assad's government could have major global implications.

Syrians around the world celebrated as rebels, after more than a decadelong fight, finally toppled the country's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, on Sunday.

The Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday that Assad had resigned from his position as Syrian president and left the country. Russian state news reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he's been granted asylum.

Syrian anti-government forces announced early on Sunday morning that they had advanced into Damascus, Syria's capital.

In a post on social media, rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani said: "We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad."

"Today 8-12-2024 Syria is officially free," he added in a later post.

Hassan Akkad, who fled Syria in 2015 and is now based in the UK, posted to X, "Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free."

World leaders react

President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday that Assad had "fled his country" after losing Russia's support.

"Assad is gone," Trump wrote. "His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer."

In a press briefing on Sunday, President Joe Biden called the fall of Assad's government "a fundamental act of justice" and "a moment of opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country."

Biden said the US would support Syria's neighbors Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel "should any threat arise from Syria during this transition." Biden said the United States would also "maintain our mission against ISIS" inside the country, referring to the terrorist group operating in the region.

The US military conducted at least a dozen airstrikes inside Syria on Sunday, "targeting ISIS camps and ISIS operatives," Biden said.

The United States will also support Syria through the United Nations to create a new government through a process determined by the Syrian people, Biden said.

"The United States will do whatever we can to support them, including through humanitarian relief, to help restore Syria after more than a decade of war and generational brutality by the Assad family," Biden said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a Sunday statement, echoed the president's sentiment, saying the US "will support international efforts to hold the Assad regime and its backers accountable for atrocities and abuses perpetrated against the Syrian people, including the use of chemical weapons and the unjust detention of civilians such as Austin Tice."

The Syrian people, Blinken added, "finally have reason for hope."

Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called Assad's resignation "a positive and long-awaited development."

"It also shows the weakness of Assad's backers, Russia and Iran," Kallas said in a statement. "Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners in Syria and in the region."

Geir Pedersen, the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, said in a statement, "Today marks a watershed moment in Syria's history."

How rebels took control of Aleppo

In late November, the coalition of rebel groups launched a surprise offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which traces its origins to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. It has more recently promoted more moderate views.

The rebels quickly took control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities, Hama, and the strategic city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking Damascus to the coast.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, is a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq with Al Qaeda. He is believed to have cut ties with the terrorist organization in 2016 but is still designated a terrorist by the US, which has placed a $10 million bounty on his head.

Al-Jolani has sought to portray himself as a more moderate leader and promoted messages of religious and ethnic inclusivity as HTS pushed toward Damascus. Still, HTS has a reputation as a hardline Islamist faction.

"This victory, my brothers, is a victory for the entire Islamic nation," Al-Jolani said in a speech to his followers this weekend, per a translation by CNN. "This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region."

What Assad's ousting means for Russia and Iran

The collapse of Assad's government could have significant global implications, especially for Russia and Iran, which have been two of Assad's strongest allies.

Moscow operates two major military facilities in Syria — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — which have given its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a base to launch operations into Africa.

Losing access to these bases would scupper many of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans in the region, Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X: "Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse."

While Russia intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, its priorities have since shifted to the war in Ukraine, and it had appeared reluctant to divert any significant resources to help Assad this time around.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said there was no security threat to its military bases in Syria but that they were on high alert.

For Iran, Syria has been part of an important land corridor stretching from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, helping it support key regional proxies such as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.

But Tehran, too, has been distracted by its conflict with Israel, while Hezbollah has been left in disarray after Israel killed its longtime leader and wounded thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.

In a separate post on TruthSocial on Saturday, Trump called on the United States to stay out of the situation in Syria, writing: "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

This story is being updated as the situation unfolds.

• The Russian embassy in Syria has advised Russian citizens to leave the country.
• It cited the "difficult military and political situation in Syria," a Russian ally.
• The warning came as anti-government rebels advanced on the strategic city of Homs.

The Russian embassy in Syria has advised its citizens to leave the country "in the light of the difficult military and political situation."

In a post on Telegram, the embassy said Russian nationals should leave on commercial flights through operating airports, adding that the embassy continues to operate "as usual."

The announcement comes amid Russian airstrikes targeting rebel forces who launched a surprise offensive against Syrian President Bashar Assad's government forces late last month.

The rebels, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have already taken control of the key cities of Aleppo and Hama, and are continuing their advance toward the city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking the capital Damascus — the seat of Assad's power — to the coast.

Should Homs fall, there would be no major cities between the rebels and Damascus.

For Russia, the mounting pressure on Assad's government has significant implications.

Moscow operates two major military bases in Syria, the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base.

The bases have been crucial for Russia's regional interests, providing its forces with important access to the Mediterranean Sea and a "launching pad to move into Africa," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.

Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X that losing Syria would be a big blow for Putin, scuppering many of his plans across the region and damaging his reputation with African governments.

"Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua said.

Moscow intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, but analysts say the ongoing war in Ukraine means it's unlikely to have the resources to provide significant support this time around.

Assad will instead likely have to rely on help from Syria's longtime ally Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.

Iran also helped support Assad against rebel forces in 2015, and Iran-backed militiamen are reported to have begun entering Syria from Iraq to back the embattled president once again.

But this time, it may be difficult for Tehran to pull together sufficient forces, Aron Lund, a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told BI.

"Hezbollah, which was Tehran's primary instrument in Syria over the past decade, is now stuck in Lebanon, tending to its wounds and trying to get back on its feet after being mauled by Israel over the course of a two-month war," Lund said.

He added: "I'm not sure Iran can muster the numbers in time to turn this situation around."