• Firestorms in Los Angeles have burned over 5,000 acres, destroying homes and killing two people.
• One of the two biggest blazes, the Palisades Fire, could be the costliest in US history.
• The fires have spread so fast in part because of a windstorm and flood-drought whiplash.

All was well in Los Angeles at around 10 a.m. on Tuesday.

Less than 24 hours later, 2,925 acres of the Pacific Palisades were ablaze in what is being called the worst wildfire in Southern California since 2011.

Three more blazes have ignited in the area, with one, the Eaton Fire, engulfing another 2,000-plus acres.

Firefighters had not contained the blazes as of Wednesday morning, the Los Angeles Fire Department said.

More than 1,000 structures have burned, at least two people have died, and the fires could get even worse in the coming hours.

California is no stranger to fires, but this situation is different and especially dangerous for a few reasons.

An 'urban firestorm' that could be the costliest in history

Few brush fires in California history have intruded into such vast areas of dense, urban housing.

The UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain called it an "urban firestorm" as he assessed live images of the developing Eaton Fire on Tuesday morning.

Perhaps the best historical comparison is the 1991 Tunnel Fire, which raged through more than 1,500 acres of Oakland, but it was smaller than either of the two giant blazes in Los Angeles. It killed 25 people and injured 150, and ranks as the third-deadliest and third-most-destructive fire in California history.

The true toll of this week's fires won't be clear until later.

Swain said that he and several colleagues have estimated that the Palisades Fire could be the costliest on record in the US because of the number of structures burning and the fact that those homes are some of the most expensive in the world.

"We are looking at what is, I think, likely to become the costliest wildfire disaster in California, if not national history, along with a number of other superlatives," Swain said.

A historic windstorm spread the fire fast

A powerful windstorm buffeted the flames throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, with gusts of wind reaching up to 90 miles an hour, according to the National Weather Service.

During a 2 ½ hour period overnight, the Palisades Fire's size more than doubled, per the fire service's reports.

The winds were so powerful on Tuesday evening that water- and retardant-dropping aircraft could not fly.

It's a phenomenon that scientists have warned about: a deadly combination of high winds and dry, open land — such as the brushland now being swept by flames in Los Angeles — amounting to fires that move faster than emergency responders can keep up with.

"It's certainly unusual how fast it's grown," Douglas Kelley, a researcher at the UK's Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, told Business Insider. "It's definitely a lot faster than I guess a lot of people were expecting in the area at the time."

A study published in Science in October found that while only about 3% of US fires over a nearly two-decade period could be considered "fast fires," they caused disproportionate damage.

"The most destructive and deadly wildfires in US history were also fast," wrote the study's authors, led by University of Colorado Boulder's Jennifer Balch.

Between 2001 and 2020, fast fires accounted for 78% of fire-destroyed buildings and a full 61% of suppression costs — or $18.9 billion, the scientists wrote. And they are getting more frequent, the study said.

The windstorm was bad luck. But the other primary factor in the fires' rapid explosions — the fuel — is strongly linked to the climate crisis.

Weather whiplash made abundant fire fuel

Southern California has experienced heavy rainfall and flooding the past two winters — which is a huge part of the problem.

Abundant rainfall spurred an explosion of grasses and brush, the primary fire fuel in Southern California. Then, with very little rainfall in the past few months, all that vegetation was flash-dried.

Kelley said those dry conditions made the Palisades especially susceptible to a fast-spreading fire.

This is part of a growing phenomenon that Swain calls "hydroclimate whiplash," or weather whiplash. As global temperatures rise, many parts of the world, especially California, are seeing more violent swings between extreme wet and extreme dry conditions.

The same confluence of weather whiplash and extreme winds was behind the Camp Fire, Swain said. That November 2018 blaze in Paradise, California, was the deadliest and most destructive in the state's history, destroying 18,804 structures and killing 85 people.

• A Ukrainian F-16 pilot may have pulled off a feat no one flying the jet has achieved before.
• Ukraine's Air Force Command said the pilots took out six Russian cruise missiles in a single flight.
• Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said it was the first time this had been recorded in the jet's history.

Ukraine said one of its F-16 pilots achieved a feat nobody flying the jet has managed before.

In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Ukraine's Air Force Command said a pilot flying an F-16 took out six Russian cruise missiles during a single flight, using air-to-air missiles and an aircraft cannon.

This occurred during a "mass" missile and drone attack in December, it said.

On December 13, Russia fired almost 200 drones, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, and 94 cruise missiles at Ukraine.

The pilot's main target was the cruise missiles, according to the post.

He used all four air-to-air missiles on board the F-16, two of which were short-range, forcing the jet to fly closer to the missiles — an "extremely dangerous" task, it said.

The pilot then struck two other missiles flying close to each other using an air cannon.

Business Insider was not able to verify the report.

Intercepting "such important targets is not an easy task for a pilot, but who, if not Ukrainian pilots, has the most experience in the world of winged missiles?" Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, head of the Ukrainian Air Force Command's public relations service, said.

Since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has frequently launched large missile attacks on Ukraine, aimed at overwhelming Ukraine's air defense systems and hitting targets behind the front lines.

The pilot, who had recently undergone retraining for F-16s in the US, said in the post that Ukrainian F-16 pilots had never used an aviation cannon to shoot down targets.

However, he said he applied the lessons he learned in the US.

"I must have set a record that day," he said, adding, "I am convinced that this experience will be useful to colleagues."

Colonel Ihnat described it as the first-ever documented case.

He said that "based on objective control, we have one hundred percent confirmation that for the first time in history in anti-air combat, an American fighter F-16 shoots down six winged missiles."

• Ukraine says it's designed a new type of river drone to target Russian vessels.
• The Black Widow 2 is also able to perform reconnaissance operations, it said.
• Ukraine's military requested it to combat Russian forces and supply runs on the Dnipro River.

Ukraine says it has developed a new type of drone to target Russian vessels deployed on Ukrainian rivers.

Hard Cat, a Kyiv-based drone manufacturer, told Business Insider that the uncrewed river drone, the Black Widow 2, can take out surface targets, including small boats.

It can also carry out reconnaissance and patrolling operations, providing real-time situational awareness, it said, with a maximum speed of almost 25 miles an hour and a communication range of up to 6.2 miles.

And unlike sea drones, which operate in wider bodies of water, the one-meter-long drone's "compact size and high maneuverability allow it to operate effectively" in narrow waterways and river areas.

Drones have been a hallmark of the war in Ukraine, with both sides using them to attack, surveil, and target more accurately.

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia's fleet in the Black Sea using sea drones, with notable effect.

Hard Cat unveiled the river drone's prototype at the Defense Tech Valley investment summit in Kyiv in October 2024.

It told BI the drone has now been successfully tested in rear-area conditions and is undergoing combat trials with two Ukrainian army brigades. It didn't say where those trials were taking place.

"Warfare on water is quite specific and comes with unique challenges, making such a small water drone potentially very useful," it added.

One of the developers, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told BI that they began work on the drone in December 2023, at the request of the Ukrainian military, as a way to counter Russian motorboats used for personnel rotation, supply runs, and reconnaissance.

At the time, Ukrainian troops were fighting to hold out on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, against Russian forces that vastly outnumbered them.

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI that he expects Ukraine to use these new systems primarily on the Dnipro.

"They would probably be most useful in a defensive role, such as striking small vessels carrying Russian assault troops or supplies," he said, rather than working in conjunction with larger, longer-range naval drones to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Basil Germond, an expert in international security at Lancaster University in the UK, made a similar assessment.

"It is important to understand that Russia not only operates big warships and submarines but also a wide array of small boats that support land operations at the tactical level, especially in the wet areas such as the Dnipro Estuary and other rivers," he said.

Germond added: "River drones are likely to contribute to operations against these sorts of assets."

• A UK-led coalition is using AI to track Russia's shadow fleet, the British Ministry of Defence said.
• The operation, involving 10 countries, comes after damage to major undersea cables in the Baltic.
• Finland said evidence suggests a Russia-linked ship dragged its anchor to sever the cables.

A UK-led coalition of European countries has deployed AI to track Russia's shadow fleet and detect possible threats to underwater cables, after suspected sabotage incidents in recent months.

On Monday, the UK's Ministry of Defence said that the Joint Expeditionary Force's operation, dubbed Nordic Warden, has been using AI to evaluate data from several sources, including the Automatic Identification System, which ships use to share their real-time locations.

In the event of a potential threat, it said the system would monitor the suspect vessel in real time and issue a warning, which will be communicated to both NATO allies and participating countries.

The UK's Defense Secretary John Healey said AI would allow them to monitor "large" sea areas using a "comparatively" small number of resources.

"Nordic Warden will help protect against both deliberate acts of sabotage as well as cases of extreme negligence which we have seen cause damage to underwater cable," Healey added.

The UK MOD didn't respond to a request for comment, but in its news release said that there were 22 areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, the North Sea, the Kattegat Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

It said the operation's launch came after reported damage to a major undersea cable in the Baltic.

Over the past two months, several undersea cables in the Baltic Sea have been damaged, including the BCS East-West Interlink cable, the C-Lion1 telecommunications cable linking Finland and Germany, and the Estlink 2 electricity cable connecting Estonia and Finland.

Last week, Finnish officials said they found a 60-mile trail on the seabed that suggested the Eagle S — a Russia-linked tanker — could have been responsible for slicing a cluster of valuable data and power cables.

Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former NATO official, told BI that AI will help NATO identify suspicious ships among the vast majority of legitimate commercial activity in the region.

Neither Russia's shadow fleet nor any other country for that matter, "even the Chinese," can afford to lose ship after ship trying to damage cables, he said, pointing to Finland's seizure of a Russian-linked vessel last week.

"Russia needs its shadow fleet," he added, "that's how it earns its oil export revenues."

• North Korea could get Russian satellite tech, the US Secretary of State has warned.
• The tech would be in exchange for it sending troops to fight Ukraine, Antony Blinken said on Monday.
• The US and its allies have accused Russia and North Korea of trading arms and military technology.

Russia could share satellite technology with North Korea in exchange for the troops it sent to fight Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned.

Blinken said the US had reason to believe that "Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with Pyongyang," during a press conference in Seoul on Monday.

North Korea "is already receiving Russian military equipment and training," he added.

If confirmed, it would add to Russia's reported ongoing efforts to help North Korea advance its satellite launch program.

Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, has repeatedly tried and often failed to launch satellites into space. The country said it had successfully launched a military spy satellite in November 2023. The most recent failure was when a rocket exploded during the first stage of flight in May last year.

At the time, the South Korean news agency Yonhap reported, citing an unnamed senior defense official, that a "large number" of Russian technicians had entered North Korea to guide the country's space program ahead of the failed launch.

In September 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Russia would help North Korea build satellites.

Having a satellite network would allow North Korea to identify targets to strike with its missiles and strengthen its ability to launch a preemptive strike against the US or its allies, giving them only a few minutes to respond.

However, "brazen acts of unprovoked military violence" are not in North Korea's best interest, said Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracker and lecturer in optical space situational awareness at The Netherlands' Delft Technical University.

"If anything, North Korea improving its intelligence position through a better reconnaissance satellite program with Russian help could help ease some of the North Korean paranoia regarding US and Allied activities in the region and avoid things getting out of hand by mistake," he added.

Russia and North Korea's relationship has come under scrutiny in the past year after both countries signed a strategic partnership agreement in June, which requires the countries to defend each other in the event of aggression.

The US and its allies had previously accused Moscow of sending raw materials, food, and technical expertise to Pyongyang in exchange for shipments of artillery ammunition and missiles that Ukraine has reported seeing on the battlefield.

North Korea has also sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US have said.

Blinken suggested Russia-North Korea's relations could go deeper as Putin may be "close" to formally accepting North Korea's status as a nuclear power.

He also described North Korea's deployment of artillery, ammunition, and troops as one of the "biggest ongoing drivers" that enabled Russia's war against Ukraine.

• Parts of the US are being battered by Winter Storm Blair, with states of emergency declared.
• The frigid conditions are impacting travel, with icy Midwest roads and flights and trains canceled.
• Snow hit Washington, DC, on Monday as the area prepares for the Trump administration transition.

Ice-storm warnings and unpleasantly cold conditions are expected to continue in much of the northern US.

The Arctic outbreak, dubbed Winter Storm Blair by the Weather Channel, has disrupted travel and resulted in at least five deaths.

The storm is bringing heavy snow to areas in the mid-Atlantic region that haven't seen such weather in a decade, the National Weather Service warned.

Heavy snowfall has occurred in places such as Kansas City, Missouri, where local media reported 10 inches of snow on Sunday night, and Louisville, Kentucky, which saw its largest single-day snowfall in about 25 years.

On Tuesday, snow is expected to dwindle in most of the areas blanketed by it as the storm moves south.

Two people have died in a weather-related crash in Wichita, Kansas, a Missouri public works employee was fatally injured during snow removal operations, and a person in Houston, Texas, died due to cold weather, NBC reported on Monday afternoon.

As of 3 a.m. ET Tuesday, about 207,063 utility customers were without power across Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Virginia, Illinois, and Missouri, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks power outages across the US. That was down from about 254,000 customers on Monday afternoon.

Travel delays and cancellations

More than 2,900 flights were canceled and over 9,300 flights within, into, or out of the US were delayed on Monday, according to FlightAware.

More than half of Monday flights were canceled at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, while the nearby Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport saw 125 flights, or 43% of those scheduled Monday, canceled.

Chicago O'Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airports are leading the country in delays.

Amtrak, the US national rail operator, also announced a series of cancellations in the Northeast and the Midwest on Monday.

The numbers of impacted flights are expected to continue to rise.

Airlines including American, Delta, Southwest, and United have said they're waiving change fees for flights impacted by the storm.

Meanwhile, freezing temperatures led to icy roads and dangerous driving conditions in the Midwest on Sunday. The Missouri State Highway Patrol reported 436 crashes and 1,788 stranded motorists by 3 p.m. on Monday.

Heavy snow and cold to continue

The NWS Weather Prediction Center said Monday that the adverse weather would move toward the mid-Atlantic throughout the day, bringing up to 12 inches of snow and dangerously cold temperatures.

Snow — possibly mixed with sleet and freezing rain — reached about 8 inches in Washington, DC, where preparations are underway for Donald Trump's incoming administration.

Additional cold weather warnings have also been issued in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Louisville, and St. Louis, with officials warning to limit travel in the impacted areas, The Weather Channel reported.

The Baltimore-Washington National Weather Service said on Monday afternoon that heavy snow would continue through 11 p.m., dropping up to 3 more inches before the snow system exits the area.

On Monday night, it predicted light snow to continue into the night with an extra 1 to 2 inches near urban areas and in the mountains, and low temperatures in the single digits in the west to upper teens elsewhere.

In an X post in the early hours of Tuesday, the mayor of Washington, DC, Muriel Bowser, said more than 200 snow plows would work through the night, and that school would be closed Tuesday.

Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and Arkansas have declared states of emergency, with Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey declaring a state of emergency for several counties.

In all, about half the US population is expected to experience freezing temperatures over the next week, Axios reported.

• China is readying forces that could seize Taiwan in a future attack, analysts and officials say.
• Any military operation is likely to rely partly on China's militarized police.
• The People's Armed Police has been training in a wide range of conditions, including water.

China is preparing its militarized police for kinds of combat that would play a key role in any invasion of Taiwan.

A September report from China Central Television shows what appears to be the People's Armed Police Force, or PAP, simulating attacks from inflatable boats.

Footage and pictures from Chinese state-run outlets show the extent of the combat training and battlefield simulation — blockade breakthroughs, grenade throwing, battlefield rescue, and group tactics in cold, hot, and high-altitude conditions.

This training indicates PAP soldiers "are getting ready" for a takeover of Taiwan, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, DC.

Clandestine movement by water would be an essential capability to quell resistance in Taiwan's populated areas near the coast and rivers.

"From my observation, they train hard; they are well equipped and disciplined, and they're given stringent ideological training for the reason that they are probably, in my view, the primary reserve force for section invasion," Goldstein said.

"If they went forward with a full-up invasion, I think an amphibious assault is not just conceivable but is quite a possibility," he added.

Urban training

Since its founding in 1982, China's PAP has been firmly placed under the country's military.

These armed police are a shock force in China's vast state security apparatus. The force plays a key internal security role, mostly in law enforcement, counterterrorism, disaster response, and maritime rights protection.

Beijing also regularly uses them for propaganda. One likely goal of publicizing the recent training was to intimidate Taiwan and its backers.

Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King's College London, said the PAP's inclusion in any takeover of Taiwan would make sense given their urban training.

He told BI the PAP keeps "highly skilled" special forces at hand who are involved in surgical operations to capture strategic goals where mobility, speed, and familiarity with operating in urban areas are key.

PAP special forces maintained security at Beijing Olympic venues in 2008, conducted drills in Shenzhen near Hong Kong in 2019, and have engaged in multiple counter-terrorism operations in China's Xinjiang region over the years, according to Chinese state-run media.

"To that extent, whether in decapitation scenarios or early stages of operations to seize key port and airport infrastructures, the use of PAP should be regarded as a viable, if not preferable, option," Patalano said.

A supporting role

It's unlikely that the PAP would participate in the first stages of any island landing.

"That is the purview of the PLA," said Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University in DC. The PLA is China's main military — the People's Liberation Army.

He said that the PAP would instead initially participate in operations to firm up internal security in mainland China, including suppressing signs of social unrest, protecting critical infrastructure, and clearing out national highways to facilitate the delivery of supplies to regions near Taiwan.

Any attempt to seize Taiwan, a self-ruled island of 23 million that Beijing views as a breakaway province, would require warships, armored vehicles, and heavy firepower, to answer Taiwan's advanced missiles, tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.

However, if PLA's operations in Taiwan didn't go according to plan, and it faced a protracted campaign, Wuthnow said the PAP's Special Operation Forces could be mobilized to institute military governance through missions in urban areas like Taipei.

Another aspect of the PAP's response could involve China's Coast Guard, which it oversees.

The coast guard is already "very much" on the front lines of China's "coercive" campaign against Taiwan, Wuthnow said, and its role seems to be increasing.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's mountainous terrain, as well as its few major land routes and numerous river crossings, would make it difficult for any invading forces to move.

"If the population of Taiwan were not compliant with a PRC-led occupation authority, the period where the PRC would need to rely on their own police might be quite prolonged," said Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior research fellow in the International Security team at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, using the acronym for the People's Republic of China.

The more PAP forces can take over the "public order" task, the more it frees up combat troops, he added.

An imminent invasion

Military experts and defense officials see signs — like China's rapid modernization of its armed forces over the past two decades and drills around Taiwan — that suggest that China could take action within a few years.

But the form of that action is a matter of debate, from a blockade to a full-scale invasion.

During a 2021 hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, said Taiwan was "clearly" one of China's "ambitions" and that he believed the threat would be "manifest" within the next six years.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in October, as part of the country's anniversary celebrations, that reunification with Taiwan was "where the greater national interest lies, and it is what the people desire."

"The wheel of history will not be stopped by any individual or any force," he added.

Goldstein of Defense Priorities, who described himself as a bit of an outlier, said he believes China is ready to take over Taiwan now "if they choose to," and that the PAP's Special Operation Forces would likely play a significant role.

They "will be in very high demand in a Taiwan scenario," he said.

He added that China regards Taiwan as internal security. "So, for them, the use of these forces is entirely legitimate."

• An Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed after sustaining damage over Russia, killing 38.
• The plane was likely hit by Russian air defense before the crash, BI reported Thursday.
• Several airlines are canceling flights to Russia, citing passenger safety and risks.

Airlines are avoiding Russian airspace after an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed on Wednesday, killing 38 passengers.

The Embraer 190 jet was bound for Russia from Azerbaijan — but veered off course after sustaining some kind of damage over Russia.

It managed to reach Aktau airport in Kazakhstan before crash-landing. 29 passengers survived.

The reason for the crash remains unknown. Business Insider reported Thursday, citing reports from Euronews and The New York Times, that Azerbaijani investigators believed Russia shot the plane down, a view supported by many analysts.

Several airlines suspended flights to Russia since the crash.

Azerbaijan Airlines said it would suspend flights to 10 Russian cities starting Saturday, citing "physical and technical external interference."

"The suspension will remain in effect until the completion of the final investigation," it said.

El Al, Israel's flagship carrier, said in a Telegram post on Thursday that it was suspending all flights on the Tel Aviv-Moscow route for this week due to the events in Russia's airspace.

It said it would carry out a new assessment next week on whether the route would be resumed.

Flydubai, an Emirati low-cost carrier, said it would suspend flights from Sochi in Russia until January 2 inclusive and from Mineralnye Vody until January 3, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia reported on Friday.

Qazaq Air, a Kazakh air carrier, said it was temporarily suspending flights from Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, to Yekaterinburg, Russia, from Saturday until January 27, 2025.

Western airlines generally have not operated in Russia's airspace since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, meaning they have no services to divert or cancel.

Peter Frankopan, an expert on Russian and Balkans history at Oxford University, told Business Insider that if Moscow is determined to be at fault, it will "make people nervous about ever flying over Russian airspace."

"That has significance during the war and after it is over — including for Russian revenues from overflights," he said, referring to fees paid to countries for the right to cross their airspace.

According to a Reuters analysis, Russia had spent over $12 billion in state subsidies and loans as of December 2023 to sustain its civil aviation industry since Western sanctions took effect.

• An Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38.
• An oxygen tank exploded before the crash, Kazakhstan's transport minister said.
• The plane was likely hit by Russian air defense before the crash, BI reported Thursday.

An oxygen tank on the Azerbaijan Airlines flight exploded before the plane crash, Kazakhstan's transport minister said.

It adds a little more detail to the series of events leading to the fiery crash landing of the Embraer 190 on Christmas Day that killed 38.

The minister, Marat Karabayev, did not say definitively that the oxygen-tank explosion was a direct cause of the crash.

He also did not say why it exploded. Analysts have blamed Russia, saying it likely fired an air-defense missile at the plane by mistake.

The plane was bound for Russia from Azerbaijan — but veered off course after sustaining some kind of damage, crossing the Caspian Sea to crash-land at the airport in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

At a press briefing Thursday, Karabayev said Kazakh authorities heard of the disaster from a Russian air-traffic controller. They said an oxygen cylinder had exploded in the passenger cabin of the aircraft, and that some passengers were losing consciousness.

Karabayev said this triggered an emergency response in Aktau. Rescuers were quickly on the scene and managed to rescue 29 of the 67 passengers.

The plane departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, early Wednesday, heading for Grozny, Russia.

Business Insider reported Thursday, citing reports from Euronews and The New York Times, that Azerbaijani investigators believed Russia shot the plane down.

Those sources pointed to a Russian Pantsir-S air-defense system.

Russia has said the plane diverted after a bird strike, and denied playing a role — an explanation analysts were swift to dismiss.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, said in an alert sent to its clients and shared with BI that the flight was "likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system of unspecified type/variant over the North Caucasus Federal District."

Kazakhstan's transport ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comments.

• Russia's economy will be under significant strain next year, economists told Business Insider.
• High inflation, slowing economic growth, energy prices, and sanctions could hurt its war machine.
• One expert told BI that stagnation was similar to the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1980s.

Russia's economy is likely entering a year of pain in 2025.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has restructured its economy to prioritize its war efforts, imposing export bans, tapping its national wealth fund, and strengthening trade with non-Western countries.

But unprecedented defense spending, labor shortages, and Western sanctions have come at a cost, and some believe the country is reaching the limits of its capacity.

Economists told Business Insider that while they don't expect Russia's economy to collapse, they said it would face a tough 2025 if it keeps on fighting in Ukraine.

Persisting inflation

"Russia has set in motion processes that will continue to eat out its economy from within," Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University, told BI.

He said that if the war continues, "it will put a significant strain on the already bleeding Russian budget."

Russia has increasingly boosted its defense spending to sustain its war efforts, from $59 billion in 2022 to $109 billion in 2023, and $126.8 billion set aside in 2025, when defense will make up 32.5% of Russia's federal budget, up from 28.3% this year.

While soaring defense spending has fueled Russia's economy in recent years, it has also contributed to rising inflation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin said could hit 9.5% in 2025.

To rein this in, the country's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to 21% in October, a record high, which has eaten into companies' profit margins.

The bank was expected to raise the rate again in December, but held off, though it may need to increase it next year.

"The main question is how high the inflation will be and how the slowing down will materialize," Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told BI.

Putin has acknowledged that inflation is at "a relatively high level." Speaking at an investment forum in Moscow earlier this month, he urged his government and the central bank to curb it.

TsMAKP, a Russian think tank, warned last month that Russia's failure to tame inflation was driving the country toward stagflation, a scenario in which growth is low and inflation high, and which is harder to escape than a recession.

"The overall trend is pretty grim," said Kolyandr. "I would say it's overall stagnation akin to what the Soviet Union had at the beginning of the 1980s."

The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991.

Slowing economic growth

Russia is expected to experience lower-than-expected economic growth in 2025. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF dropped its GDP growth estimate for Russia from 1.5% to 1.3%.

"Overall growth will be quite slow," Iikka Korhonen, the head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, told BI.

However, he said the Kremlin will make sure that military production has enough resources.

But "many sectors will most likely contract," he said.

US sanctions on Gazprombank and other financial institutions in November caused the ruble to plummet, according to The Wall Street Journal, which also said that companies were slashing expansion plans.

It reported that more than 200 shopping centers in Russia are under threat of bankruptcy due to rising debt burdens and almost a third of Russian freight haulers say they fear bankruptcy in 2025.

Russia's largest mobile operator, MTS, also blamed an almost 90% drop in Q3 net profits on costs related to interest payments.

"The elites are fighting for survival, and while they remain loyal to Putin, they are increasingly discontent," Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the Journal.

In fact, in recent months, Russian CEOs and business leaders have increased their vitriol against interest-rate hikes and Western sanctions.

Sergei Chemezov, CEO of defense conglomerate Roste, told Russian senators in late October that sky-high interest rates were leaving companies struggling to turn a profit.

Oil and gas prices

While Russia's share of oil and gas revenues has fluctuated in recent years, and dropped in 2023, Russia expects it to account for about 27% of the country's total budget revenue in 2025.

"As long as Russia can sell as much crude oil as it is now selling with the current prices, they will have enough tax revenue for the war well into 2025," Korhonen said.

Earlier this month, Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft agreed to a 10-year, $13 billion deal to supply crude oil to India, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal.

However, Center for European Policy Analysis' Kolyandr said he believes Russia's revenue outlook is "over-optimistic," since "global oil prices might be lower than the government thinks."

Traders expect global oil prices to fall from a projected $80 a barrel in 2024 to between $65 and $71 in 2025, due to sluggish demand, production from non-OPEC+ countries, and a shift toward cleaner energies.

While G7 countries have set a $60 price cap on Russian oil since December 2022, Russia has partly evaded the cap by using a shadow fleet, redirecting oil exports to countries like China and India, and inflating ancillary costs to obscure purchase prices.

But the tightening of Western sanctions could further reduce Russia's oil and gas revenues.

Reserves

Russia's economic performance in 2025 will ultimately come down to the availability of resources, said Korhonen.

"There will be a deficit, but it can initially be financed from the National Welfare Fund," he said.

Russia's National Warfare Fund has assets amounting to about $131.1 billion as of October, while the central bank has about $614.4 billion in international reserves.

Kolyandr, meanwhile, said that "whether Russia is going to face any crisis in 2025" would depend on everything that will happen in 2025, including oil prices, sanctions, President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies, and the Russian labor market.

"The Russian economy will continue to fall," said Weatherhead School of Management's Sheremeta, "which will restrict Russia's ability to wage war."

But he added: "Much will depend on the Western support of Ukraine."

• Multiple prohibited items were found in a woman's bag at Los Angeles International Airport, per the TSA.
• A TSA officer flagged the bag after spotting the items in an X-ray image.
• Jason Pantages, LAX TSA Federal Security Director, said the incident was "extremely concerning."

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said one of its officers found fireworks, knives, and other prohibited items in a woman's carry-on bag as she attempted to catch a flight at Los Angeles International Airport earlier this month.

In a recent press release, the TSA said one of its officers flagged the bag after spotting the items in an X-ray image.

"When the bag was opened with the passenger present, the TSA officer was shocked at its contents," the TSA said.

The bag, which belonged to a female passenger set to travel to Philadelphia, contained 82 consumer-grade fireworks, three knives, two replica firearms, and one canister of pepper spray, it added.

The incident occurred at LAX's Terminal 4 at around 10 p.m. local time on December 15.

The TSA said it informed the Los Angeles World Airport (LAWA) police department and that officers went to the security checkpoint and interrogated the traveler while a bomb squad confiscated the fireworks.

Jason Pantages, LAX TSA Federal Security Director, described the find as "extremely concerning."

"This traveler should have followed TSA's tried and true advice - unpack your bag before you pack it to ensure you don't bring any prohibited items to the security checkpoint," he said. "We are in the midst of the holiday travel season when security checkpoints will be busy everywhere."

The TSA reminded travelers that fireworks are not allowed on board an aircraft in carry-on or checked luggage and that knives and replica firearms should travel in checked baggage.

It also said that one four-ounce container of pepper spray is permitted in checked luggage as long as it has a safety mechanism to avoid "accidental discharge."

It comes as airports across the US brace for a busy festive season.

More than 3.2 million people are expected to pass through Los Angeles International Airport during the holidays, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The TSA, meanwhile, said it expected to screen nearly 40 million people from December 19 to January 2, up 6.2% from last year. It forecasts the busiest days as December 20, 27, and 30.

TSA and LAWA didn't immediately respond to requests for comments made outside working hours.

• A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea, per Russia's foreign ministry.
• The Ursa Major ship went down after an explosion in the engine room, the ministry said.
• It comes after Ukraine said Moscow had sent four ships to Russian military bases in Syria.

A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion in its engine room, Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

Fourteen crew members were rescued, but two were missing, the ministry's situation and crisis unit said in a Telegram post.

The ministry said the vessel, the Ursa Major, was owned by SK-YUG LLC, a Russian shipping company also known as SC South that has been sanctioned by the US.

Spain's Maritime Rescue agency told Business Insider that it had received a distress alert call from the Ursa Major last night.

It said the ship was 57 nautical miles off the coast of Almeria in southern Spain in bad weather conditions. This prompted the maritime rescue centers of Almeria, Cartagena, and Madrid to coordinate a rescue effort, it added.

The 14 people rescued were transferred to the Spanish port city of Cartagena, the agency said, adding that another Russian ship later arrived in the area and took over the rescue operations.

Ship tracking data said the 466-foot Ursa Major, built in 2009, last departed from St. Petersburg on December 11.

It comes after Ukraine's intelligence directorate reported on Monday that a Russian cargo ship called Sparta had broken down near Portugal after the engine failed.

The GUR said the ship had been sent to evacuate Russian weapons and equipment from Syria.

The crew was able to fix the vessel, and it continued on through the Strait of Gibraltar, the GUR said.

It remains unclear whether the Sparta and the Ursa Major are the same ship. Maritime tracking data shows that the Ursa Major was previously named Sparta III.

Moscow has operated two military facilities in Syria, the Hmeimin airbase and the Tartus naval base. Both have been crucial for projecting Russia's influence across the Middle East and Africa.

The fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad earlier this month has called the future of the bases into question.

Ukraine's GUR said earlier this month that Russia had deployed four ships to help evacuate equipment in Syria, including ships named the Sparta and Sparta II.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

• Russia sent a ship to evacuate soldiers from its bases in Syria, per Ukrainian intelligence.
• But it broke down en route in the open sea near Portugal, Ukraine said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

A ship sent to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria broke down while in the open sea off Portugal, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

In a Telegram post on Monday, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate said that the Sparta cargo ship's engine failed and that the crew was trying to fix the problem while the ship was drifting in the high seas.

Since the fall of Bashar Assad, Syria's longtime ruler, earlier this month, the fate of Russia's two military bases in the country — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — has been under threat.

Russia struck a 49-year lease with Assad's government for the bases, which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

But Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, overthrew Assad earlier this month, after a rapid two-week campaign.

Last week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there were "no final decisions" about Russia's bases in Syria but that Moscow is in contact with "representatives of the forces that currently control the situation" in the country.

Earlier this month, Ukraine said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships had left Russia and were heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

The journeys required the ships to sail along stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russian state media said earlier this month that Syrian rebel forces now controlled Latakia province, where the Russian bases are located.

Images taken in mid-December by Maxar Technologies showed Russian aircraft still present at the base in Hmeimim, but warships no longer stationed at the nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Last week, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia was probably taking this "tentative" stance and removing some assets in case HTS decided to deny Russia a sustained military presence in Syria.

Obeida Arnaout, the spokesman for Syria's new transitional government, told the Associated Press last week that Russia should reconsider its presence and interests in Syria.

"Their interests were linked to the criminal Assad regime," he said.

"They can reconsider and take the initiatives to reach out to the new administration to show that they have no animosity with the Syrian people, and that the era of Assad regime is finally over," he added.

• Javier Milei, the Argentine leader who has inspired Elon Musk, says he plans to cut how many taxes there are.
• He said he was planning to "eliminate 90% of taxes — not revenue, but the number of taxes."
• Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, co-heads of DOGE, are looking to radically trim the US federal government.

Argentina's President Javier Milei says he will reform the Argentine tax system to have no more than 6 taxes.

In a clip from an interview with Forbes Argentina, published on Sunday, Milei said: "We'll advance privatization, deepen labor reforms, and eliminate 90% of taxes — not revenue, but the number of taxes — moving to a simplified system with no more than six taxes at most."

It would be the latest sweeping move by a firebrand president who has inspired members of the incoming Trump administration.

Since taking power on December 10, 2023, Milei has presided over sweeping cuts. He fired tens of thousands of public employees, shut down half the country's 18 ministries, and reduced state spending by an estimated 31% in his first 10 months alone — making good on his pledge to take a "chainsaw" to the state.

Milei's actions caught the attention of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the men now charged with a similar task under President-elect Donald Trump.

Last month, Musk said Argentina had made "impressive progress,'" while Ramaswamy said that the US needed "Milei-style cuts on steroids."

In the interview, Milei said his administration had only accomplished the "first step" of its plan, and that what was coming next was the "deep chainsaw."

"It is not only a question of deregulating and removing these obstacles, but it also implies a new reform of the state to make it even smaller," he said.

Milei added that his administration has so far only implemented a quarter of the reforms it wants to pursue.

Argentina's latest economic figures suggest the country may be turning a corner after struggling economically.

Argentina's inflation dropped from 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.4% in November 2024. However, unemployment rose to 6.9% in Q3, from 5.7% in the same period last year.

Economic activity, meanwhile, grew 3.9% in Q3, compared to Q2.

According to BBVA projections, Argentina will achieve a fiscal balance in 2024 for the first time in 15 years. It also said that it expects Argentina's GDP to rebound strongly next year, from a 3.8% deficit in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, driven by investments and private consumption.

However, Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, a political consultancy firm, told Reuters this month that Milei's cuts had ignited a "major" recession, and according to Argentina's statistics agency, the country's poverty rate rose to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, the highest rate in 30 years.

Speaking at an event at Argentina's Chamber of Commerce and Services last month, Milei said the recession was "over," after the country had gone through "a difficult period of effort and pain."

And in an episode of the Lex Fridman podcast last month, Milei advised Musk and Ramaswamy to go "all the way" in cutting US federal spending.

Reacting to Milei's latest interview on X, where he talked about eliminating the taxes, Musk wrote one word: "Impressive."

• Elon Musk tried to play down his role in tanking a government spending bill on Thursday.
• Democrats have started calling him "President Musk," in a move likely to frustrate Donald Trump.
• "Trump must absolutely hate the whole President Musk thing," one commentator said.

Elon Musk has tried to downplay his influence in helping tank a government funding bill, and after Democrats started referring to him as "President Musk."

In a series of X posts on Thursday night, Musk tried to distance himself from Democrats' claims that he is now the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

Musk, who will co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency under President-elect Donald Trump, had criticized the first version of the spending bill earlier this week, calling for it to be "killed."

A revised spending bill that he helped usher in then failed to get enough votes, potentially setting the stage for a government shutdown.

"Objectively, the vast majority of Republican House members voted for the spending bill, but only 2 Democrats did," Musk wrote in response. "Therefore, if the government shuts down, it is obviously the fault of @RepJeffries and the Democratic Party."

Before the vote, Musk had posted: "First of all, I'm not the author of this proposal. Credit to @realDonaldTrump, @JDVance & @SpeakerJohnson."

All but 38 House Republicans voted for the revised bill, but it fell short of the two-thirds majority required to extend government funding until March.

Democrats seized on the opportunity to embarrass Trump by portraying him as a subordinate of Musk.

Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania said, "The leader of the GOP is Elon Musk," adding, "He's now calling the shots."

Rep. Greg Casar of Texas asked if Musk was "kind of cosplaying co-President here," adding, "I don't know why Trump doesn't just hand him the Oval Office."

Meanwhile, Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democratic member on the House Appropriations Committee, said Republicans "got scared" because "President Musk said: 'Don't do it — shut the government down.'"

Others also weighed in.

"Welcome to the Elon Musk presidency," Rep. Robert Garcia of California said in a post on Thursday.

"It's clear who's in charge, and it's not President-elect Donald Trump," Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington added.

After Thursday's vote, Musk reacted favorably to a post that said the reason Democrats keep saying "President" Elon Musk was to "drive a wedge" between him and Trump.

Charlie Sykes, a political commentator and author of "How the Right Lost Its Mind," wrote that Musk had committed two cardinal sins: "upstaging" Trump and being responsible for an "embarrassing defeat."

"Trump must absolutely hate the whole President Musk thing," he added.

• North Korean troops are engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces, the White House said.
• They've had a rough start, and seem to lack experience with drones and working with Russians.
• This has led to reported losses, but analysts said they should be able to learn to adapt.

North Korean troops have engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, with media and intelligence reports suggesting they're off to a rough start.

Footage obtained by Radio Liberty on Monday showed Ukraine striking a group of soldiers, with sources telling the outlet that North Koreans were among them.

The same day, Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops were operating in big groups out in the open, and were getting killed by drones they didn't realize were dangerous.

A senior US military official said this week that North Korea's dead and wounded could now be counted in the hundreds.

Military analysts told BI that, while the limited number of early reports makes it difficult to give a definitive assessment, they're not surprised by the reports.

"The North Koreans are taking apparently unnecessary casualties as they are rushed into combat without a period of training on the unique threats here," said Wallace Gregson, a former US Marine Corps officer and former assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.

Uncharted territory

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

Evans Revere, a senior advisor with Albright Stonebridge Group, said that while North Korean troops seemed "disciplined" and "tough," their lack of experience in ground combat and unfamiliarity with drone warfare was taking its toll.

He said that the reported casualty numbers suggest that North Korean forces are in the "thick of heavy fighting" and that "if the North Koreans continue to suffer casualties at this rate, they will very soon require fresh forces."

Revere also said their lack of Russian language and absence of experience in training and operating jointly with Russian forces seemed to be a problem.

On Saturday, Ukrainian intelligence said North Korean troops opened fire on Russian military vehicles, killing eight soldiers, due to a language barrier between the two forces.

Too early, too inexperienced

The last time North Korean troops really fought was during the Korean War, where fighting ended in 1953.

Gregson said that this time around, Russia may have thrown North Korean troops to the front in earlier waves of attacks, which he said usually include the "least-trained" soldiers.

He told BI that "high casualties" weren't unexpected, given their light infantry capabilities and the likely language barrier.

However, he said you needed to respect their "apparent courage and determination — and sacrifice — in a conflict not of their choosing far from their home."

Military analysts also said that the North Korean troops could soon adapt to the new battlefield conditions.

Revere said it won't be long before the North Koreans learn how to operate in this environment.

However, he said it's "still not clear" how well Russian and North Korean troops are operating in tandem, or whether Russian commanders are providing good leadership and guidance.

The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Thursday that Russian and North Korean forces were "almost certainly" experiencing difficulties, with North Korean troops struggling to integrate into Russia's command and control structure.

Another major issue is their unfamiliarity with modern battlefield warfare.

John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the evidence so far suggests North Korean troops were unprepared for the drone threat.

But, he said, "I suspect they'll adapt with time and may have started doing so already."

Covering up deaths

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia has been trying to conceal North Korean deaths. In a nightly address on Monday, he claimed that Russian forces were burning the faces of killed soldiers to conceal their identity.

Revere said attempts to cover up the deaths were likely part of Russia's effort to avoid admitting to the Russian people that the country lacks the ability to defeat Ukraine by itself.

North Korea has also often been the object of ridicule in Russia, he added, "so for the Russians to have to admit their need for DPRK support would be embarrassing."

For North Korea, the stakes are also high.

Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, said that Kim Jong Un is taking risks by sending troops to support Russia, especially potential elite-class military personnel.

He said that Kim is unlikely to want to return the bodies of those killed to their families, fearing potential instability inside North Korea.

"Kim will likely prefer that the soldiers who are killed simply disappear," he said.

• North Korean troops don't realize drones are dangerous and are sitting ducks, Ukraine troops said.
• They have engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk, per US and Ukraine officials.
• A couple hundred were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a US official said.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops are frequently getting killed by drones they don't seem to consider dangerous.

The accounts point to an apparent gap in the knowledge of the troops sent by Kim Jong Un to support Russia's invasion.

The prevalence and effectiveness of drones is a defining feature of the war in Ukraine, and experienced soldiers there have described to Business Insider a widespread fear of them.

But North Korea's troops are new to the war, separated by a language barrier, and appear not to have the same approach.

Three Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region of Russia told the Post that waves of what seemed to be North Korean forces advanced directly at Ukrainian positions defended by drones and other weapons.

"We were very surprised; we had never seen anything like it — 40 to 50 people running across a field," one drone commander told the Post.

"FPV drones, artillery, and other weapons struck them because they were moving in the open field," he said. "You can imagine the result."

Another drone operator, Artem, told the outlet that instead of running away from the drones, the North Korean troops shot at them "indiscriminately," while others just kept moving. Many were killed, he said.

During a nighttime drone operation, Artem said he recognized three soldiers based on their heat signatures on a thermal camera and anticipated killing only one — but when the other two failed to react fast enough, he and his comrades struck all three.

He described the experience as "bizarre," adding, "It was the first time it felt like playing a computer simulator on easy mode."

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

During a press briefing that same day, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said they had indications that North Korean soldiers engaged in combat in Kursk had suffered losses.

At least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded during assault operations near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka in or near the Kursk region last weekend, Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) said on Monday.

A couple hundred North Korean troops were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a senior military official told the Associated Press on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the GUR said North Korean troops had set up extra observation posts, fearing Ukrainian drone attacks after suffering serious losses.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Russia's head of chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday when a scooter bomb exploded in Moscow.
• Ukraine was behind the attack, a Ukrainian Security Service source told BI.
• Igor Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia invaded Ukraine.

A high-ranking Russian general responsible for Russia's chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday by a bomb placed in a scooter on a Moscow street.

A source inside Ukraine's Security Service with knowledge of the attack told Business Insider the agency was behind the death of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov.

The Wall Street Journal also reported Ukrainian officials as saying the killing was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine.

Kirillov, the head of Russia's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed by a bomb planted in a scooter parked on a street in Moscow, Russia's investigative committee said in a statement on Telegram on Tuesday.

"According to the investigation, on the morning of December 17, an explosive device was detonated in a scooter parked next to the entrance of a residential building on Ryazansky Prospekt in Moscow," the statement said.

"As a result of the incident, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Kirillov and his assistant were killed," it added.

The committee said it had opened a criminal case and that investigators and forensic experts were working at the scene.

The Russian investigations committee didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

According to the Ukrainian source, the bomb on the scooter was detonated when Kirillov and his assistant were entering a nearby house on Ryazansky Prospekt. BI couldn't independently verify the claim.

"Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target," they said, accusing Kirillov of giving orders to use banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces.

"Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable," they added.

Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Financial Times.

He was sanctioned by the UK in October for the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, including the choking agent chloropicrin.

Kirillov's death follows a string of similar attacks, some of which sources said were the work of Ukraine's Security Service or other agencies.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council and a former Russian president, described Kirillov's killing as a terrorist attack, and offered his condolences to Kirillov's family, per the TASS news agency.

He also said that Ukraine would pay for its actions.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

• 6 tourists were hospitalized after drinking piña coladas at a resort in Fiji.
• The patients were four Australians, an American, and two others, per Fiji's health ministry.
• Officials said the Fiji case was isolated, though it resembles a recent spate of tourist deaths in Laos.

A group of tourists was taken to the hospital after drinking cocktails at a five-star resort in Fiji.

Fiji's health ministry said there were seven tourists aged 18 to 56: four Australians, one American, and two of unspecified nationality.

They were taken to Sigatoka Hospital after suffering nausea, vomiting, and "neurological symptoms" after drinking piña coladas at the Warwick Fiji Hotel, per The Fiji Times.

In a Facebook post on Monday, Fiji officials said the patients were transferred to Lautoka Hospital for additional medical attention.

Six were admitted for treatment there, an official said. It was unclear what happened to the seventh.

Viliame Gavoka, Fiji's deputy prime minister, said that as of Monday evening, four had been discharged, while two were in stable condition in the ICU.

The incident comes after six tourists died in Laos in a similar case. Media reports said Laotian authorities suspect they drank bootleg liquor that contained methanol.

Brent Hill, CEO of Fiji's national tourist office, told Radio New Zealand on Monday that the country's authorities took the case "very seriously" but that what happened was "a long way" from the Laos case.

He said they did not suspect anything "malicious", and were awaiting toxicology results.

Asked whether methanol was to blame, Jemesa Tudravu, permanent secretary for Fiji's health ministry, said authorities don't yet know, per local media.

David Sandoe, an Australian whose daughter and granddaughter were among those treated, told Australia's ABC on Monday his relatives were discharged from the hospital and were scheduled to fly home Monday night.

He said they are doing "very well considering what they've been through."

Viliame Gavoka, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation, described the case as a "very isolated" incident with no parallel he could recall.

The Warwick Fiji Hotel told the BBC it was "conducting a thorough investigation" to "gather all necessary information" while waiting for test results.

Methanol, a flavorless, colorless alcohol common in cleaning products, adhesives, and paints, can cause drowsiness, a reduced level of consciousness, confusion, headache, dizziness, and the inability to coordinate muscle movement.

It can also cause nausea, vomiting, and heart and respiratory failure, which usually appear after 1 to 72 hours, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

According to Médecins Sans Frontières, Asia has the highest incidence of methanol poisoning in the world, with Indonesia topping the list.

Fiji's authorities and the Warwick Fiji Hotel didn't immediately respond to requests for comments made outside working hours.