The cause of a deadly plane crash in southwestern Kazakhstan is being investigated, and some officials are claiming Russian involvement.
Issa Tazhenbayev/Anadolu via Getty Images
A preliminary investigation pointed to Russian air defenses as the cause of an Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, Azerbaijani sources said.
Russia's civil aviation authority quickly pointed to a bird strike as a possible cause of the crash-landing, which killed 38 of the 67 people on board, including both pilots.
Aviation experts had been skeptical of the Russian government's bird crash explanation due to the plane's erratic course and the holes in the plane's fuselage and tail section.
Azerbaijani sources confirmed that the investigation found an air defense missile fired by Russian Pantsir-S struck the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft, the New York Times and the Euronews TV network reported Thursday.
Ukraine was quick to put the blame on Russia.
On Wednesday, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said in an X post that the plane was "shot down by a Russian air defense system."
Others have also suggested that Russian air defenses likely played a role as images of the crash and the plane's flight track emerged.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, said in a critical alert sent to its clients and shared with Business Insider that the flight was "likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system of unspecified type/variant over the North Caucasus Federal District."
The firm cited video of the wreckage, Ukraine's official statement, and the "circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia."
It also said that "incidents of civilian airliners being misidentified and shot down by air-defence systems are not unprecedented in the region."
It pointed to examples such as Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, which crashed in eastern Ukraine in 2014 after reportedly being hit by a Russian-made missile.
Matthew Borie, Osprey's chief intelligence officer, told BI that the firm was in the process of raising its risk ratings for that portion of Russian airspace to its highest level.
"We have a portion of Russian airspace within 300 kilometers of the Ukrainian border, we have at extreme, we'll be expanding that out to about 600 kilometers from the Russian border now," he said, equivalent to 373 miles.
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight was en route to Grozny, which Ukrainian drones have targeted in recent attacks.
The governor of the Russian region of North Ossetia said in a Telegram post that there were Ukrainian drone attacks carried out on Wednesday in a number of regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, which includes Grozny and the surrounding area.
The governor's post specifically mentioned a drone being taken down in Vladikavkas, which is about 70 miles away from Grozny.
Sources familiar with Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash told The Wall Street Journal that Russia redirected the Embraer-made aircraft from its airspace and jammed the GPS system.
Flightradar24, a live flight tracking website, said in a post on X that the plane was "exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny."
Oliver Alexander, an independent OSINT analyst, told BI that "all the evidence I have seen points to the aircraft being hit by shrapnel from an air defense missile, which severely damaged the elevator and rudder controls."
In a thread on X, which cited post-crash footage, he wrote that "every single piece of debris that hit the aircraft had enough kinetic to punch through the skin and not just dent it."
Alexander also dismissed the preliminary information from Russia's civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, which suggested that the plane diverted after a bird strike, causing an onboard emergency.
He told BI that a bird strike would produce "a lot of blood" and "a lot of denting," neither of which seemed apparent in footage and images from the crash site.
"The location of the damage is all focused around the tail section," he added, "which would be very unlikely for a bird strike."
Subkhonkul Rakhimov, one of the surviving passengers, told RT, the Russian state-owned news network, that he had heard an explosion in the tail of the aircraft.
He also told TASS state news agency that he had seen the plane make three attempts to land the plane in Grozny.
Russia has cautioned against drawing conclusions.
On Thursday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it "would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses" until the investigation into the crash is concluded.
"We, of course, will not do this, and no-one should do this," he added, per a translation by the BBC.
Azerbaijan Airline's president, Samir Rzayev, told reporters Wednesday that the plane's black box had been recovered and its analysis was being "conducted in line with international aviation standards."
The country's president, Ilham Aliyev, said in a statement that while there are videos of the crash online, the cause was still unknown.
However, on Thursday, unnamed Azerbaijani government sources told Euronews that a preliminary investigation had found that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the crash.
According to Euronews, the sources said that shrapnel from the missile hit the plane after it exploded during drone activity above Grozny.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Affairs department did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Issa Tazhenbayev/Anadolu via Getty Images
The president of Azerbaijan Airlines praised the pilots of flight J2-8243 after the plane, carrying 67 people, crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday.
Although both pilots were among the 38 fatalities reported by Kazakh authorities, nearly half the passengersβ 29 people βsurvived.
Samir Rzayev, who heads up the airline, also known as AZAL, told reporters on Wednesday that the two pilot's "heroism will never be forgotten."
"While this tragic accident brought a significant loss to our nation, the crew's valiant dedication to their duties until the last moment and their prioritization of human life have immortalized their names in history," Rzayev said, according to the Azerbaijani news agency Report.
Rzayev said the pilots collectively had over 15,000 flight hours and that the plane had recently passed a technical inspection.
"Despite these measures, the causes of the incident are still under investigation," Rzayev added.
The Associated Press posted a video of the crash showing some passengers being pulled from the aft section of the aircraft, an area which is traditionally safer in a crash.
Per a 2015 analysis byΒ Time Magazine of US federal data from 1985 to 2000, the seats in the back of the plane had a fatality rate of 32%, compared to 39% in the middle and 38% in the front. The back middle seats had the lowest fatality rate, at 28%.
Still, the circumstances of the crash play a bigger role, like how a jet lands and the actions of its pilots.
The Embraer 190 jet had departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, early Wednesday, bound for Grozny, Russia.
Adverse weather conditions led to a diversion, the airline told BBC News. The flight-tracking website Flightradar24 shows that the plane made a crash-landing at about 06:28 local time near Aktau, Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan's Senate Chairman Ashimbayev Maulen told Reuters on Thursday that the cause of the crash remains unknown.
Preliminary information from Russia's civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, suggested that the plane diverted after a bird strike caused an onboard emergency, according to AP.
And Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cautioned against speculating on the cause of the crash before the completion of an investigation, per the Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti.
However, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, put the blame on Russia. On Wednesday evening, he claimed in an X post that the commercial airline was "shot down by a Russian air defense system."
In the post, he said there is video footage from inside the plane, showing "punctured life vests and other damage."
Others have also suggested Russian involvement.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that the plane may have been damaged by a Russian anti-missile system. The firm cited footage of the crash, the apparent damage to the aircraft, and recent military activity in the area.
"Incidents of civilian airliners being misidentified and shot down by air-defence systems are not unprecedented in the region," a critical alert issued by Osprey and provided to Business Insider said.
Oliver Alexander, an OSINT analyst, said in a message to BI that "at this point, I don't think there is enough available evidence to conclusively say what exactly happened (type of missile etc)."
But he added that "all the evidence I have seen points to the aircraft being hit by shrapnel from an air defense missile which severely damaged the elevator and rudder controls."
Ukrainian drones have targeted Grozny in recent weeks, and the governor of the Russian region of North Ossetia said in a Telegram post on Wednesday that there were Ukrainian drone attacks carried out in a number of regions of the North Caucasus Federal District that day.
The district includes Grozny and the surrounding area.
The post specifically mentioned a drone being taken down in Vladikavkas, about 70 miles west of Grozny.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a statement: "There are videos of the plane crash available in the media and on social networks, and everyone can watch them. However, the reasons for the crash are not yet known to us."
This wouldn't be the first time Russia was blamed for the shooting down of a passenger aircraft.
In 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was hit by a Russian-made surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people onboard. Investigators said the missile system used originated in Russia and was launched from a part of Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed forces.
Russia has denied involvement in the MH17 crash.
Azerbaijan Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Rzayev, the airline's president, told reporters that the plane's black box had been recovered and that "its analysis is being conducted in line with international aviation standards."
Embraer, which built the aircraft that crashed Wednesday, said in a statement that it was "deeply saddened" by the crash and was working closely with relevant authorities to support the investigation.
