• Bosses are increasingly watching what their employees are doing during the workday.
• Demand for employee surveillance software rose 54% from March 2020 to June 2023, a study found.
• Pressure is on for bosses to cut costs and root out unproductive workers, sources say.

If you're reading this during your workday, there are pretty good odds that your boss knows.

Employers have monitored workers for a long time, but companies now have more sophisticated ways to watch what employees do while on the clock.

Bosses are increasingly deploying tools that can track screen time, log keystrokes, and take videos and screenshots to keep tabs throughout the day.

These gadgets, which exploded in use when remote work took off during the pandemic, are part of a broader workplace trend aimed at cutting costs and reducing head count, something execs think can be done more effectively by rooting out less productive workers, sources told Business Insider.

Between March 2020 and June 2023, demand for employee surveillance software grew 54%, according to research from Top10VPN, a virtual private network comparison site.

Meanwhile, 73% of employers said they used recordings of calls, emails, or other messages as a factor in performance reviews, while 37% said they used a recording to fire an employee, a separate survey from ExpressVPN study found.

Five employee monitoring software providers told Business Insider they had seen significant growth in the last year, with four of them reporting that they had scaled their clientele by more than 25% in 2024.

Insightful, which makes monitoring software that allows employers to keep tabs on worker productivity through features like screenshotting, says it saw a 45% increase in customers last year. The firm is already on track to see its client base jump by 70% this year, Alexandra Alexin, Insightful's head of demand generation, said.

Alexin attributed the increased interest to employers wanting to keep workers accountable, adding that some companies said they were looking to enforce certain policies.

"It's been fantastic from a business perspective," Alexin told BI, noting that 2024 marked the company's best year on record. "I think that the real focus they have is, if those policies are being enforced, are they seeing more productivity and more efficiency from their workforce or not?"

Time Doctor, another performance-tracking software firm that assigns productivity ratings and alerts employers of worker inactivity, said client interest increased by around 50% in 2024. Based on numbers over the last several quarters, the firm expects to see a similar increase in 2025.

Liam Martin, the co-founder of Time Doctor, told BI he attributes the uptick in interest in employee monitoring tools to the rise of remote work, though cost-cutting has also come up in conversations with customers.

"Every single employer that I've spoken to, and I've asked them, 'is your head count going to go down due to AI?' Pretty much everyone has said yes," Martin said, adding that he believed workers who were able to become more productive by using AI were not going to be let go.

Controlio, an employee monitoring tool that can rank employees on a scale from "Very Productive" to "Very Distracted" through features like keylogging, video recording, and surveying file activity, says it's seen a 30% increase in clients using its platform.

Moath Galeb, an account manager at Controlio, said employers using Controlio are frequently shocked by how unproductive some employees are. He added that some employers have used the technology to determine which employees to let go.

"A lot of our customers use it solely to have the ability to make decisions," he said.

Layoff announcements by companies rose 28% in January, according to a report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

Meanwhile, a third of business leaders said that reducing costs was their top priority in 2025, according to a survey conducted by Boston Consulting Group. Approximately 86% of executives said they planned on investing in AI or advanced analytics in 2025, BCG found.

While employers may be flocking to such tools, workers are less enthused about the prospect of being monitored at work.

About 56% of workers who are monitored at work said they felt tense or stressed out, according to the American Psychological Association.

Time Doctor's Martin says fewer employees push back against the technology once they understand how it works, adding that he believes the heightened transparency is necessary for remote work to succeed.

• The alcohol industry faces a handful of risks that could spark a prolonged downturn, BofA says.
• Analysts at the bank expect alcohol consumption to drop for a fourth year in a row in 2025.
• Things like weight loss drugs and alcohol alternatives are factors that could drive the decline.

America's alcohol industry could be heading for a long-running decline, according to Bank of America.

Analysts at the bank see a growing risk that the alcoholic beverages sector could sink into a secular decline thanks to a handful of trends that are causing Americans to lay off the booze.

The bank estimates that alcohol consumption per capita is on track to fall 1% year-over-year in 2025. That would mark the fourth-straight year of declines for alcohol consumption in the US, analysts said in a note on Friday.

"We are assuming per capital consumption reverts to historical levels. There is, however, risk that per capita consumption continues to recede," the bank wrote, pointing to four headwinds that could weigh on the industry for some time.

Younger people, for one, appear to be turning away from alcohol. In the 10 years leading up to 2023, the number of binge drinkers aged 21-34 declined by around 3 million, Bank of America said, citing data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health.

Younger Americans also appear to be more conscious of the health consequences of drinking too much. 65% of 18- to 34 year-olds said they believed drinking in moderation was bad for health last year. That's more than double the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who believed drinking in moderation was bad for health eight years ago, according to a 2024 Gallup poll.

90% of those in the age group said they believed the best health advice for the average drinker would be to reduce the amount of alcohol or stop drinking altogether, the poll found.

"Suggesting younger people are drinking less vs. history while older people are drinking more. In our view, this dynamic will be a critical component to overall consumption trends over the next 5 years, especially if younger consumers continue to be more moderate consumers vs. previous generations," BofA analysts said.

Second, alcohol consumption could be challenged by the rising interest in preventing obesity, as well as weight loss drugs growing more popular. One study published this week found that people taking Ozempic were able to "significantly" reduce the amount they drink in a day.

Third, consumers also appear to be choosier when spending on food and beverages. Retail and food sales dropped 0.9% in January, according to preliminary estimates from the Census Bureau.

Meanwhile, 83% of US consumers said they weren't planning to splurge on alcoholic beverages over the next three months, according to a survey conducted by McKinsey & Company in the fourth quarter.

Lastly, psychoactive alternatives to alcohol are growing. 8 million Americans were estimated to use psilocybin, the substance found in psychedelic mushrooms, in 2023, according to a study from the research organization RAND.

Alcoholic beverage companies are already off to a rocky start to 2025, especially after the US surgeon general warned of cancer risks from drinking and Americans kicked off the year with Dry January.

Constellation Brands, one of the largest liquor companies in the US, has seen its stock price drop 27% year-to-date, and Brown-Forman Corporation, one of the world's top wine and spirit companies, has seen its stock price drop 18% this year. Diageo stock has dropped almost 14% and is hovering around five-year lows.

• There are signals coming from employers that hint that layoffs could accelerate this year.
• Layoff announcements rose 28% in January from the prior month, according to Challenger data.
• Business filings of mass layoff plans have also been elevated in recent months.

The resilient US job market could weaken this year, with employers showing early signs that they're readying more job cuts in 2025.

Job cut announcements continued to rise in January, even as the labor market remained on solid footing overall. Layoff announcements swelled to 49,795 over the month of January, according to data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas. That marks a 28% increase from the prior month, though it was the quietest January for layoff announcements since 2022, the career outplacement firm said in a report.

That number looks poised to increase in the coming months, given recent mass layoff announcements, the firm added. Since the start of February, ADM has said it was planning to cut up to 700 workers in its latest cost-cutting measures, while Salesforce and Workday also made plans to cut 1,000 and 1,750 workers, respectively.

"January was relatively quiet in terms of job cut announcements. However, we've already seen major announcements in the early days of February, so it seems this quiet is unlikely to last," Andrew Challenger, the senior vice president of Challenger, wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, WARN filings — regulatory filings businesses with more than 100 workers must submit if they're planning to lay off more than 50 people at a worksite — have also increased in recent months. Companies filed 253 layoff notices in December, with plans to cut 21,873 jobs, according to public records accessed by WARNTracker.com. That's up from the prior month, when firms filed 217 notices, with plans to cut 20,105 workers.

"The number of positions covered by a WARN filing jumped in November and remained relatively high in December. As a result, we still think the trend in claims will rise to about 250K by the end of Q1, reflecting a fading drag from residual seasonability and deterioration in the underlying trend," Samuel Tombs, a chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote.

Hiring was robust in December. The economy added 256,000 jobs that month, well above the expected 164,000. The jobless rate, meanwhile, remained near a record low, slipping to 4.1%.

Economic forecasters, though, have been observing weaker labor market conditions in the past year, with the unemployment rate climbing 30 basis points throughout 2024.

Friday's jobs report is expected to show that hiring decelerated but continued to grow in January. Economists expect US employers to have added 170,000 jobs, according to FactSet.

• Russia's economic outlook won't brighten if the war in Ukraine ends, according to CEPA.
• The research center thinks Russia has grown too reliant on military spending to keep its economy going without it.
• A huge 2025 defense budget shows how dependent Moscow become on the war.

Pressure has steadily been building on Russia's economy in the three years since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, but things could continue to get worse for Moscow even after the war stops, a think said this week.

According to the Center of European Policy Action, a public policy research group based in Washington, DC, the economic outlook in Russia could darken further once the Ukraine war comes to an end. That's partly because Russia has become "addicted" to military spending to prop up its economy, and partly because Moscow is weighed down by a range of economic issues that could take a while to resolve even after the fighting is over, the center said in a new report.

"Even without any ongoing fighting military spending would need to remain high," Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at CEPA, said.

According to Russia's latest federal budget, the country will spend a record 13.5 trillion rubles on its military in 2025, up from around 10.8 trillion rubles last year. Economists have said that stimulus is largely responsible for Russia's recent economic growth, with GDP rising around 4% last year.

But other indicators of Russia's long-term prospects look weaker.

Russia's labor market is slammed with a severe shortage of workers, thanks partly to the exodus of Russians who fled the country when Russia first began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The nation was short around five million workers in 2023, according to estimates from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics.

"The labor market dislocation will remain unless Russia faces a severe contraction. A combination of the demographic trough, brain drain, and high demand from the defense industry and the army will pressure the market, forcing the Kremlin to choose between importing foreign workers at the risk of social discontent and a constant labor shortage," Kolyandr said.

The flight of Russia's most educated workers has also caused Russia to fall behind in the tech space, another issue that economists have said could impact Moscow's long-term growth.

Patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, while patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the Russian Patent Office.

"Russia remains technologically backward and dependent on high-tech imports," Kolyandr added. "The 2025 budget, which sacrifices spending on science, education, and health in favor of defense, illustrates the problem."

Russia is also under continued pressure from Western sanctions, which have restricted the nation's access to financing and crimped revenues from some of its most important exports, like oil and gas.

Russia's total energy revenues plunged by nearly a quarter in 2023. The Kremlin, meanwhile, expects oil and gas revenue to keep shrinking until 2027, according to a draft budget viewed by Bloomberg.

"It would not be accurate to say that the sanctions did not work. While they have failed to prevent Russia's aggression and to change Russia's political course since 2022, they have helped to distort the country's growth, possibly planting the seed for another 1980s Soviet-style crisis," Kolyandr added.

• The economy will probably head into a recession in a few years, Kenneth Rogoff says.
• The Harvard economist thinks a slowdown is coming in the second half of Trump's term.
• The downturn will be influenced by factors like a slowing business cycle and tariffs, he suggested.

President Donald Trump's plan to engineer America's next economic boom will probably come up short in the coming years, according to Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff.

The Harvard professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist said he believed the US economy would likely slow and enter a downturn in the second half of Trump's term as president. That outcome will be influenced by a number of policies Trump suggested he would implement, Rogoff said, speaking to Yahoo! Finance on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum on Tuesday.

"I think the most likely scenario, with what I think are the most likely policies being passed, are strong, and then a slowdown into recession the second half of his term," Rogoff said. "It's just tough within the cycle not to do that."

Rogoff highlighted some of Trump's policies that could weigh on the economy. The president has promised to loosen regulation in the financial sector, a move that could potentially lead to "trouble down the road," Rogoff said.

"And also, when you goose up the economy with these policies, most of which are not structural, they're really demand policies, you're going to get that effect," he added of the potential for an economic slowdown.

Rogoff pointed to Trump's tariff plan, with the president promising to levy tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico as soon as February 1.

Economists have said the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, an idea Trump has pushed back on. Trump levied tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation increase. However, his proposals for tariff policy in his second term are more expansive, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

Rogoff said the inflationary impact of the tariffs could be minor, though he believed the tariffs themselves would make markets nervous and could harm growth.

"The inflationary impact is not a big deal, quantitatively," Rogoff said. "More worrisome is that it's chaotic, it hurts these animal spirits that he's benefiting from. It actually leads to slower growth."

Trump has promised to "reignite explosive economic growth" over his four years in office, adding in his inauguration speech that tariffs could lead to "massive amounts of money" pouring into the US.

Wall Street is bullish that Trump's push to loosen regulation for businesses could boost growth. But any pro-growth policies from Trump will likely still be outweighed by "counterproductive" policies, Rogoff said, speaking in a separate interview with Bloomberg at the event.

Interest rates are also much higher than they were when Trump first took office in 2017, which is a wrinkle in any plans to juice the economy beyond already fairly robust levels of growth.

"Every campaign promise practically is something counterproductive — I mean, you can go to the tariffs, social security being not taxed, and on and on and on," Rogoff said. "He has a lot of constraints that he didn't face the first time. So I don't think you can expect quite the boom we got the last time," he later added.

Other forecasters have also issued downbeat outlooks for what could happen during Trump's presidency. Steve Hanke, another top economist, said the US could slip into a recession as soon as Trump's first year in office.

• America's credit card debt has surged, and distress could peak this year.
• Banks could write off the largest share of credit card loans since 2011, finance experts predict.
• Debt distress will be driven by weaker consumer finances, thanks to elevated inflation and interest rates.

Benton McClintock, 27, had been running away from his credit card bill for nearly a decade before deciding to pay it off. When McClintock was in college, he began paying for big trips to Milan, Paris, and other getaways with his credit card, and—until his balance had ballooned to $40,000—thought nothing of it.

When his American Express Platinum card, which doesn't have a traditional credit limit, began running into a hard borrowing cap, he realized he was in trouble. McClintock spent the last year paying off the debt aggressively, a Sisyphean task that involved him putting 90% of his income toward his credit card bill and living on thin margins.

"Every day," he said when asked if he was stressed about his finances. "You just become numb to it, I think."

Today, McClintock is debt-free, but many others are still struggling. Americans have been digging themselves deeper into a hole of credit card debt over the last several years, and some financial experts think debt pain will peak this year, with more banks writing off loans and consumers making even deeper sacrifices to pay their credit card bills, personal finance pros told BI.

They added that consumer finances will weaken, leaving many ill-equipped to deal with the fallout from pandemic spending binges. Sticky inflation and elevated borrowing rates will also contribute to distress.

Measures of debt distress are already on the rise. More credit card balances are shifting into late payment status, with the delinquency rate on credit card loans climbing 3.23% in the third quarter, the highest level since 2011, according to Federal Reserve data.

Meanwhile, the charge-off rate on credit card loans — another measure of debt distress that refers to the percentage of card balances banks have written off their balance sheet — rose to 4.69% in the third quarter, the highest level in 13 years.

The charge-off rate on credit card loans is expected to peak around 5% by the middle of this year, according to a projection from Fitch Ratings. That would represent the largest percentage of distressed credit card loans banks have written off since the years following the Great Financial Crisis, Fed data shows.

The National Foundation for Credit Card Counseling is also expecting consumer credit card distress to worsen in the near term. The foundation estimated its average client reached "Stage 6" on its Debt Burden Scale over the fourth quarter, a severe form of debt distress where consumers are cutting back on essentials, like food, to service their credit card payments.

The trend of higher debt distress looks poised to continue through 2025, the firm said in its latest Financial Stress Forecast.

Bruce McClary, senior vice president of membership and communications at the NFCC, said that he was seeing more people make sacrifices to service their credit card loans, such as by borrowing against their home or their 401(k).

In particular, he's expecting a surge of debt-distressed consumers to come in for help in the next three months, as Americans face bills coming due from the holidays.

"We're expecting these levels of stress to reach a level significantly higher than anything we've seen over the past four years," he said. "l think it would be also true to say that we're expecting it to go beyond what we saw pre-pandemic."

Credit card nation

Americans are leaning on credit cards to get by more than ever. Household credit card balances surged to a record $1.17 trillion as of the third quarter of 2024, up $360 billion from the third quarter of 2020, New York Fed data shows.

That increase was driven by a perfect storm of factors, McClary said, pointing to how credit card companies loosened lending standards during the pandemic, as well as the accumulated effects of higher inflation. The higher cost of living, combined with the post-pandemic shopping boom, made consumers more likely to carry a balance from month to month.

But those consumers are looking far worse than they did several years ago. Households likely depleted their excess savings from the pandemic by the first quarter of 2024, according to an analysis from the San Francisco Fed.

Meanwhile, credit card companies began rolling up their emergency forbearance programs in 2022, which were implemented to provide debt forgiveness during the pandemic.

Nearly half of all credit card users said they carried a balance month-to-month, according to a 2024 Bankrate survey, up from 39% of users who carried a balance in 2021.

Of those who held credit card debt, 29% of users said they believed it would take them more than 5 years to pay off their loans, while 6% said they believed they would never be able to pay their dues.

Heather Hunt, the director of Fitch Ratings, says she largely expects debt distress to rise as consumer finances continue to weaken in 2025, especially if the job market deteriorates.

"The short story is that if unemployment is rising, then your charge-offs are going to rise. And that just signals consumers are under more and more distress," she said.

Interest rates on credit card plans charged by commercial banks soared past 21% in 2024, the highest in at least three decades, according to Fed data dating back to 1994.

Meanwhile, 28% of credit card debt holders said day-to-day expenses, like groceries, were the largest reason they carried their balances month to month, according to Bankrate's survey.

McClary says he advises people struggling with credit card debt to speak to a nonprofit credit counselor as soon as possible.

"If you're falling behind on your payments, the delinquency interest rates, the penalty interest rates combined with the fees, could be the death blow," McClary said. "And that's just unsustainable for people who are already financially struggling and are living paycheck to paycheck."

Are you struggling with credit card loans, a mortgage, or other forms of personal debt? Email this reporter to share your story: [email protected].

• Scott Bessent's confirmation hearing this week held a number of clues as to what markets can expect from Trump 2.0.
• The long-time investor and hedge fund exec is Trump's pick to lead the US Treasury.
• Bessent said Trump would "unleash a new economic golden age" during his testimony.

Scott Bessent's nomination hearing gave markets a handful of hints as to what the next four years could look like.

The investor and hedge fund executive sat this week for his confirmation hearing as Donald Trump's pick to lead the US Treasury Department. Economists at Deutsche Bank noted that his remarks held a few important clues for investors.

In his testimony, Bessent said he believed Trump's presidency would help "unleash a new economic golden age," which could include more jobs and increased wealth for Americans. He also suggested the US was "barreling towards an economic crisis" at the end of the year.

If confirmed, Bessent will be in charge of Trump's plan to create the "Greatest Economic Boom," and will oversee the President-elect's plans to cut taxes, deploy tariffs, and curtail the national debt.

Here's what Deutsche Bank economists think were the top takeaways of Bessent's testimony.

1. Nothing has been taken off the table in Trump's tariff plan

Bessent didn't have firm guidance on what Trump's tariff plan could look like. In his testimony, the Treasury Secretary nominee said the tariffs would aim to even out unfair trade practices by other countries, raise federal revenue, and potentially give the US more bargaining power in negotiations. He didn't specify if the tariffs would be slowly implemented over time.

Bessent also pushed back against the idea that Trump's tariff plan was inflationary. Trump levied tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation increase, but economists say that his plan this time around is more expansive, explaining the difference in inflation outlooks for the coming years.

"Besesnt's comments on tariffs were notable in that they left everything on the table," the Deutsche Bank economists said.

2. Trump's 2017 tax cuts could be extended

Bessent doubled-down on his support for extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts. If the US doesn't extend the tax cuts, Americans could face $4 trillion tax hike when the 2017 package expires this year, he said.

"We must make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and implement new pro-growth policies to reduce the tax burden on American manufacturers, service workers, and seniors. I have already spoken with several members of this Committee, as well as leaders in the House about the best approach to achieving these important goals together," he added.

3. Bessent could crack down on government spending

Bessent emphasized his resolve to get the national debt and the widening deficit under control. He's been a vocal proponent of reducing the federal debt balance in the past, attributing rising debt levels to the government's "significant spending problem" in his testimony.

The total federal debt balance clocked in at $36.17 trillion as of Friday, according to US Treasury data.

"On the debt limit, Bessent provided reassurance that the US would not default on its debt if he were to be confirmed as Treasury Secretary," Deutsche Bank wrote.

Bessent also appeared "hesitant" to support removing the national debt limit, the Deutsche Bank economists noted, referring to an idea that Trump floated late last year. But, when questioned, Bessent said he would work with Trump to remove the debt limit, if Trump wished to do so

4. Trump will support the Fed's independence

Bessent pushed back against the notion that Trump would try to exert power over the Federal Reserve. Media reports that have suggested Trump would infringe on the independence of the Fed are "highly inaccurate," he added.

Bessent also did not speak about the potential for a "shadow Fed Chair," something he spoke about last year.

"Trump would make his views on monetary policy known, as Bessent noted Senators often do, but he does not support undermining Fed independence," the economists said.

5. Sanctions could get stronger

Bessent voiced support for intensifying sanctions on Russia and Iran. Sanctions on Russia, in particular, have not been "fulsome," Bessent said, suggesting he would tolerate higher oil prices in favor of increasing restrictions on Russia.

"If any officials in the Russian Federation are watching this confirmation hearing, they should know that if I'm confirmed and if President Trump requests it as part of his strategy to end the Ukraine war, I will be 100% on board from taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table," Bessent said during the hearing.

"This statement could indicate that such sanctions may be near-term priorities for the Trump administration," Deutsche added.

• The growing population of older Americans is facing unaffordable long-term care.
• These costs will also burden many younger people caring for older relatives and kin.
• Government incentives and public insurance could help address care affordability, experts say.

As the population of older Americans balloons, the financial costs associated with aging are, too.

Many millennials and Gen Xers are facing a stark reality: their parents and grandparents don't have the means to pay for long-term care — and they'll need to help foot the bill, especially since government aid often doesn't cover large parts of this care.

Many younger people end up leaving their jobs or working less in order to care for their aging family members — and that sacrifice can hurt them financially both today and in the future, including by shrinking their income and Social Security benefits, experts say.

"The bigger issue is you can create almost a cycle of poverty," Marc Cohen, a professor of gerontology at the University of Massachusetts Boston, told Business Insider. "It's not something that just sticks with one generation. The costs are borne communally."

Unprepared for a predictable crisis

Much like other forms of care — from emergency rooms to daycares — the labor and facilities needed for long-term care don't come cheap. A shortage of long-term care workers, coupled with inflation, has sent prices up in recent years. As the oldest members of the baby boomer generation near 80, the demand for these services is expected to rise sharply — putting upward pressure on costs.

Privately-provided long-term care — including assisted living communities and home healthcare — is largely out of reach for the broad middle class. Fewer than 15% of people 75 and over living alone in major US cities could afford to pay for assisted living or daily home health aide visits without dipping into their assets, per a 2023 report from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

"It's the affordability issue, particularly in the middle market, that concerns us the most," Lisa McCracken, head of research and analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care told Business Insider.

Retirees and their families may not be able to rely on the government to help. Medicare, the government's health insurance program for older people, doesn't cover most long-term care, including assisted living, home healthcare, and nursing homes. Medicaid largely doesn't cover assisted living and home healthcare, and there are often long waitlists for the nursing home care it does cover. Some assisted living residents have been evicted after they spent down their savings and were forced to rely on Medicaid.

"A lot of people thought, 'Oh, well, doesn't Medicare pay for this?' and it does not," Cohen said. "And so people find out late in life that they don't have any protection against these costs."

That's what happened to Erika Gilles and her family. After Gilles' 78-year-old mother, Karen Proctor, was hospitalized for her chronic kidney disease last year, she quickly realized her mother's Medicare coverage wouldn't be enough to cover her long-term care. Overnight, her mother went from living independently in the house she's long owned to requiring dialysis treatment and constant care. But Gilles couldn't purchase private long-term care insurance because of her mother's pre-existing conditions.

Gilles, 57, found a group assisted living facility for her mother, who applied for a state subsidy to help cover the cost. If the subsidy doesn't come through, Gilles is worried they'll have to sell her mother's house in Sun City, Arizona.

"It's totally turned my life upside down. It's absorbed all of my time," Gilles said. "I don't think I'm ever going to retire."

It's not just a boomer problem

Gen X, many of whom are sandwiched between caring for their aging parents and dependent children, has fallen behind in their financial savings. A study conducted by Nationwide showed that 56% of Gen Xers were financially supporting either their parents or their kids. About a fifth of Gen Xers taking care of a parent said they had a significant amount of debt, and a similar portion said they were unable to save for retirement, the study found.

The number of US adults who care for a spouse, older parent or relative, or child with special needs has grown from 43.5 million in 2015 to 53 million in 2021, per a report from the insurance provider Guardian.

A separate survey of 35- to 60-year-olds conducted by Carewell found that 75% of those taking care of both a parent and a child said they struggled to save for retirement, while 63% said they lived paycheck to paycheck. Meanwhile, adult caregivers provided around $600 billion worth of unpaid labor last year, noted a separate report from the AARP.

Brandon Goldstein, a financial planner at Prudential, said he frequently works with clients struggling to care for their parents as they get older. In some cases, his clients are experiencing financial stress as a result of caretaking and have been forced to cut back on saving.

Some of them may need to bank on their own children taking care of them in the future, he suggested, given how much they've sacrificed in their own retirement savings.

"Having to reduce what you put towards retirement is going to put you in a situation where you might not have assets now, and you could — I don't want to call it a burden — but you might become this responsibility if you don't have assets to cover a facility," he told BI, adding that some may need to consider working for longer than they originally expected.

Ultimately, through ballooning Medicaid costs, taxpayers may be on the hook for the growing long-term care crisis. An increasing number of older people don't have kids or spouses to take care of them as they age, and those that end up needing long-term care may have to rely on Medicaid. About a fifth of baby boomer women don't have any children, and those who do have kids have fewer, on average, than previous generations.

A government-aided solution for long-term care?

Cohen argues that the private long-term insurance market is suffering from "a clear market failure" and policymakers need to step in to create a public option for middle-income people and their families.

McCracken said that in order to scale some of the most effective models of assisted living and other long-term care, private providers will need more government incentives and partnerships.

Cohen argued that public long-term care insurance would work well if most people paid into it because a relatively small number of older people require the most expensive care, like 24/7 nursing.

That option could resemble an earned benefit, like Social Security and Medicare, funded by a mandatory tax that people pay throughout their lives and collect when they retire. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat, has proposed legislation that would create a public insurance program for catastrophic long-term care funded by a payroll tax.

Some states have begun to address the issue. Washington State recently passed a 0.6% payroll tax to fund a new universal long-term care insurance program called WA Cares, which provides $36,500 in care per person, and will increase with inflation in future years.

Gilles said she wants to see the government or care providers figure out a way to lower costs.

"They've got to provide more support to families going through this," she said. "They've got to either make it more affordable, or they need to provide more resources, or not make it so expensive so that it's attainable for anybody at any income level."

Are you or someone you care for struggling with long-term care costs? Email this reporter to share your story: [email protected].

• The US is cracking down on Russia's oil industry, with broader sanctions introduced on Friday.
• The US and UK are blocking two Russian energy giants and other entities in the nation's oil trade.
• Russia's energy revenue is expected to account for more than a quarter of the nation's budget in 2025.

The US is tightening the screws on one of the key pillars of Russia's wartime economy: its energy business.

The US said it would join the United Kingdom in imposing wider-sweeping sanctions against Russia's oil industry on Friday, which include blocking Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, two of Russia's largest oil producers.

Sanctions will also be imposed on the producers' subsidiaries, as well as 183 tankers associated with Russia's oil trade, according to a statement from the Treasury Department. Some of the sanctioned tankers were part of Russia's shadow fleet, a group of ships Russia is known to rely on to trade oil under the radar.

The new sanctions also targeted several "opaque traders" involved in Russia's oil business, as well as oilfield service providers and prominent executives at Russian energy companies, the statement added.

"The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia's key source of revenue for funding its brutal and illegal war against Ukraine," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement. "With today's actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia's oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia's oil exports," she later added.

Western nations have targeted Russia's energy trade since the early days of the Ukraine war, given that Russia's energy revenue makes up a big chunk of the nation's war budget. Oil and gas revenue is expected to account for around 27% of Russia's federal revenue in 2025, according to a draft budget viewed by Reuters in September.

Consequences from existing measures, like the ban and $60 price cap on Russian oil, have already started to hit Moscow's cash flow. Russia's total energy revenue plummeted by nearly a quarter in 2023, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.

The nation's oil and gas revenue is also expected to decline through 2027, the draft budget showed.

Economists share a grim outlook for Russia's economy, with some experts expecting the nation to soon undergo a stagnation that could mirror the decline of the Soviet Union. The nation is now likely feeling the full impact of international sanctions, which could produce enough strain to bring an end to the war this year, according to one Washington, D.C.-based think-tank.

• Corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level in over a decade in 2024, according to S&P Global.
• There were 694 bankruptcy filings in 2024, S&P said.
• Delinquency rates on business and personal loans also climbed last year, Fed data shows.

Corporate bankruptcies rose to a 14-year peak in 2024, jumping to the highest level seen since the years following the Great Financial Crisis, according to data from S&P Global.

A total of 694 US companies filed for bankruptcy last year, the intelligence firm said in a report on Monday. It represents the highest number of bankruptcies in the corporate world since 2010, when 828 firms filed for bankruptcy.

Filings for the year were up 9% compared to levels in 2023, and up 86% compared to levels in 2022, when just 372 firms filed for bankruptcy protection.

Consumer discretionary was the most distressed sector in 2024, with 108 companies filing for bankruptcy. That was followed by industrials and healthcare industries, where 88 and 65 firms filed for bankruptcy, respectively.

"The consumer discretionary sector has been particularly susceptible to economic headwinds, even with strong overall US retail sales activity, as consumer buying trends have shifted and budgets have tightened due to inflation," the report said.

Higher levels of debt distress also reflected the strain of high debt balances, as well as higher rates in the economy broadly, the report said.

Over 30 companies that filed for bankruptcy last year had more than $1 billion in liabilities at the time they filed, according to a list compiled by S&P Global. Companies on the list included high-profile bankruptcies like Party City, Spirit Airlines, and Red Lobster.

Meanwhile, credit-rated nonfinancial US firms held a record $8.45 trillion worth of debt in the third quarter of 2024, the firm said.

Central bankers have lowered interest rates in recent years, but borrowing costs for many consumer and business loans remain elevated.

The average yield on seasoned AAA-rated corporate bonds was 5.2% in December, about double the rate in December 2020, according to Moody's data.

Signs of debt distress have increased in recent years as the impact of higher rates continues to work through the economy.

The delinquency rate on business loans held by commercial banks rose to 1.16% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest level since the pandemic. The delinquency rate on consumer loans, meanwhile, rose to 2.73% in the third quarter, the highest level in 12 years.

• Gen X may be even less prepared for retirement than boomers, wealth advisors say.
• A large cohort of adults in their mid-50s have less than $50,000 in retirement savings.
• Many expect to work part-time or receive family help after retiring, a Prudential survey shows.

Jim Thomas, a 52-year-old who works in a lumber mill, is well aware of how far behind he's fallen in saving for retirement. His job pays "good money," he says, but he's still trying to plug the hole in his finances after a layoff, a divorce, and several legal disputes emptied his wallet in the last decade.

Those expenses have dug a hole so deep in his savings that Thomas is only now starting up his 401k from scratch. Currently, he estimates he has around $100,000 in savings, well below the goal that is traditionally recommended by financial advisors, who say you should have around eight times your annual salary saved by the time you're 60.

"I know I won't be able to retire at 65 unless I win the lottery," Thomas told Business Insider. "I expect that I will either need help from my daughter when I can no longer work, or I will need government assistance greater than Social Security."

He's not alone. Thomas is among what retirement experts are calling "silver squatters" — adults in their mid-50s who are even more woefully unprepared than some boomers, despite being about a decade away from retirement. "Squatters" refers to the possibility that many will have to rely on family for housing in later years.

As far as silver squatters go, Thomas's story is fairly common. According to surveys conducted by Prudential Financial, the median retirement savings for those in their mid-50s is just under $48,000, with 35% of 55-year-olds having less than $10,000 saved and 18% having saved nothing at all in 2023.

Two-thirds of 55-year-olds say they're afraid of outliving their savings. That's the highest level of fear among any age group of Prudential's 2024 survey, with 59% of 65-year-olds saying they worried they would outlive their savings.

"As a whole, they are not as prepared as the boomers and actually are doing less well than the millennials," Pete Welsh, managing director of retirement and wealth at Inspira Financial, told BI, though he noted that the youngest Gen Xers still had time to catch up on their savings.

The lack of preparation among the cohort could be due to late planning and the unique economic circumstances of the mid-50s crowd, in addition to less financial literacy among the generation, wealth advisors say.

René, a 50-year-old based in Austin, Texas, has anxiety over whether she and her husband will have enough to live comfortably once they retire. Their life savings — around $380,000 between the two of them — dwindled to next to nothing after a medical diagnosis put her out of work and through a string of surgeries over the course of two years, she told BI.

The couple, who have fallen behind on some of their bills, don't know if they'll be able to get extra financial assistance once they retire, besides their expected pension payments. They have no external family, and they don't want to rely on their daughter for help.

"I was like, oh God, how did we get here?" René said, describing a plea she made with their mortgage provider not to foreclose on their home. "We're just going to have to work and 401k-it, and that's just how it's going to have to be now."

A forgotten generation

Silver squatters share some common characteristics, despite the unique circumstances affecting their retirement readiness. This group of Gen Xers — the generation of Americans aged 43 to 59 — largely expects to postpone or work past their retirement. 47% of Gen Xers think they'll have to retire later than they initially expected, while 40% expect to work part-time after they retire, per Prudential's survey.

A majority also don't expect to receive any inheritance, despite their boomer predecessors holding onto trillions in wealth. Only 12% of the 55-year-old group expect to get money passed down from their family members, Prudential's survey found.

They do, however, largely expect to be reliant on family for support once they retire. Around 24% of 55-year-olds say they expect financial support from their family members, with 21% adding they also needing housing support, the report said.

That compares to just 12% of 65-year-olds who say they will need that kind of help from family.

The gap in retirement readiness could be due to the "unique" challenges of Gen Xers, according to Dylan Tyson, the head of retirement strategies at Prudential. He notes that all of the generation was in their prime working years during the 2008 financial crisis, which could have set them back financially.

Gen Xers could also be in a tenuous stage of life, where a number of surprise expenses have popped up to drain their savings. Think of those who have had to fund their child's college education or are paying for a living facility for their own parents, Inspira's Welsh said.

"You're trying to help out here, you're trying to help out there, and then at the end of the day, there's just not enough on the table to really think about what you're going to do for yourself," Welsh said, adding that some of Inspira's Gen X clients had expressed frustration over their financial responsibilities to their family. "They're just in a very tough, tough spot that, for whatever reason, I guess maybe the boomers didn't have to deal with."

Low rates of financial literacy — which is a widespread issue among every generation in the US, according to a study from the World Economic Forum — doesn't help the situation, Welsh and Tyson say. Around half of Gen Xers are saving without a general plan for retirement, Prudential found.

Most also don't appear to be accounting for major expenses into retirement, with 48% not factoring in healthcare costs and 75% not factoring in assisted living expenses.

Many Prudential clients don't even know how much they need to save, Tyson said, adding that many of the firm's Gen X clients are simply guessing how long they will live. He said he believes many of them are guessing incorrectly due to rising life expectancies in the US.

"If you don't have the cushion — again, this is the group we're talking about, the 60-year-old, undersaved — they really need to be watching every penny and thinking about that," Welsh said.

This article was originally published in August 2024.

• Putin told Russia the nation would be fine in his New Year's address.
• He refrained from giving a concrete outlook for the Ukraine war or Russia's economy.
• The nation is facing growing costs from its invasion, from rising casualties to soaring inflation.

Vladimir Putin assured Russia he was "certain that everything will be fine" in his New Year's Eve address on Tuesday, as the nation heads toward its fourth year of war in Ukraine in 2025.

In his speech, the Russian president said the nation was overcoming various challenges and would continue to move on. He also referred to 2025 as the "year of the Defender of the Motherland," and gave respect to Russia's "fighters and commanders," The New York Times reported.

Still, Putin refrained from giving a concrete outlook on the war in Ukraine, or the path of the Russian economy going forward. He also did not mention Russia's inflation struggles, one of the nation's key economic problems.

The comments come amid swirling military and economic uncertainty in Russia, which is under increasing strain as its war against Ukraine is set to turn three years old in February.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War said that Russia suffered about 427,000 casualties in 2024 while gaining about 1,600 square miles of territory. Russia's military slowed its advances last month, with forces gaining around seven square miles of land a day in December.

On the economic front, the costs of Russia's invasion continue to mount. The nation has earmarked 13.5 trillion rubles for its defense spending next year, amounting to around a third of Russia's total federal budget.

Private business activity has also been hindered by the flight of capital and younger workers who fled the nation at the start of the war. An analysis from S&P Global showed that private equity or venture capital-backed deals and investments plunged 39% from 2022 to 2023.

Inflation, meanwhile, remains well above the central bank's 4% target, while interest rates have risen to 21%.

Putin has generally brushed off concerns about the Russian economy, but acknowledged the nation's struggle with inflation in a recent address. In December, he acknowledged that Russia's inflation rate was "alarming" and the economy was "overheating."

At the end of 2023, Putin apologized for the soaring price of eggs, adding the rapid price increase was a "failure of the government's work."

Economists expect 2025 to be another difficult year for the country, and some predict that its economy could be headed for a period of stagnation similar to the Soviet Union in the early 1980s.

TsMAKP, a think-tank tied to the Russian government, said the nation was at risk at stagflation, a dire economic scenario that typically involves spiraling inflation, sluggish growth, and rising unemployment.

• Authorities say a driver deliberately plowed into a crowd of people in New Orleans early Wednesday.
• 15 people were killed, and at least 35 more were injured.
• The suspect is a 42-year-old named Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, the FBI now says.

The man accused of plowing into a crowd in the heart of New Orleans in an ISIS-inspired attack that killed 15 people acted alone, an FBI official said Thursday.

Law enforcement officials identified the suspect in the attack as Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar, a 42-year-old US Army veteran, and have described it as a premeditated act of terrorism.

Officials say he killed 14 people and injured at least 35 more others after driving into the crowd with a rented truck early on New Year's Day and started shooting before being killed in a shootout with police.

At a press conference Thursday, Christopher Raia, an FBI counterterrorism official involved in the investigation, walked back earlier claims that other people may have assisted Jabbar with the attack.

He said officials have since reviewed hundreds of hours of surveillance footage and other records, and believe Jabbar acted alone.

"We do not assess, at this point, that anyone else has been involved in this attack except for Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar," Raia said at the New Orleans press conference.

Raia also said investigators have not found any links between the New Orleans attack and a Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas outside a Trump hotel, while cautioning the investigations into each event were still in their early stages. Both trucks were rented through the vehicle-sharing app Turo, and officials say the perpetrator in the Las Vegas attack was an active-duty Army soldier.

"At this point, there's is no definitive link between the attack here in New Orleans and the one in Las Vegas," Raia said.

The truck slammed through Bourbon Street

New Orleans was still reeling Thursday after the driver, later identified as Jabbar, drove a rented Ford pickup truck through the crowd on Bourbon Street at about 3:15 a.m. on New Year's Day.

Several improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, were also found near the scene of the attack. An ISIS flag was found in the vehicle's trunk, according to Raia.

Raia said that authorities initially believed other people may have been involved in the attack because of witnesses who said they saw people setting down coolers containing the IEDs.

But surveillance footage showed that Jabbar set down coolers containing two IEDs himself, Raia said. According to Raia, footage showed other people later "checking out" the coolers, but they did not seem to have any role in the attack. Reports of additional IEDs could not be substantiated, Raia said.

Officials had also earlier said that a fire in a New Orleans house, which was rented from Airbnb, may have been where the IEDs were assembled. But authorities said at Thursday's press conference that they now believe the fire is likely unrelated to the attack.

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said "information changes" as the investigation continues.

"No one dumps a thousand-piece jigsaw puzzle and solves it in five seconds," he said at the press conference Thursday.

Jabbar's criminal record, obtained from the Texas Department of Public Safety and viewed by Business Insider, shows two prior arrests in 2002 and 2005. The first was for theft, while the other was for driving with an invalid license. Both were classified as misdemeanors.

Support for ISIS posted on Facebook

At Thursday's press conference, Raia said Jabbar rented the Ford truck in Houston on December 30 and headed to New Orleans on December 31.

He said Jabbar made a series of Facebook posts during his journey expressing support for ISIS and posting a last will and testament.

Raia also said that investigators believe Jabbar joined ISIS before this past summer.

In a statement to Business Insider, the car-sharing app Turo said Jabbar used its service to rent the truck.

"We are heartbroken to learn that one of our host's vehicles was involved in this awful incident," the statement reads. "We are actively partnering with the FBI. We are not currently aware of anything in this guest's background that would have identified him as a trust and safety threat to us at the time of the reservation."

Starting Wednesday evening, Texas authorities performed a search of a location in Houston believed to be linked to Jabbar, the FBI said.

At Thursday's press conference, officials said they had obtained two laptops and three phones connected to Jabbar, which they have been examining.

The agency said it's made no arrests but had deployed specialized personnel, including a SWAT team, crisis negotiators, and a bomb squad, to the Houston location.

The search finished early Thursday, with the agency saying that it could not release more information, but that "there is no threat to residents in that area."

Superintendent Anne E. Kirkpatrick of the New Orleans Police Department said during an earlier press conference that a man drove a pickup truck down Bourbon Street "at a very fast pace." Kirkpatrick said the man drove into the crowd intentionally.

She also said the driver shot two police officers, who she said were in stable condition.

Kirkpatrick said it appeared that most of those injured were locals rather than tourists.

Eyewitness accounts

NOLA Ready, the city's emergency preparedness campaign, had initially said there was "a mass casualty incident involving a vehicle that drove into a large crowd on Canal and Bourbon Street."

Kevin Garcia, a 22-year-old who was present at the time, told CNN, "All I seen was a truck slamming into everyone on the left side of Bourbon sidewalk."

He said that "a body came flying at me," and that he heard gunshots.

One witness told CBS that a driver plowed into the crowd on Bourbon Street at high speed and that the driver got out and started firing a weapon, with the police firing back.

Gov. Jeff Landry of Louisiana said on X on Wednesday that a "horrific act of violence took place on Bourbon Street earlier this morning."

"Please join Sharon and I in praying for all the victims and first responders on scene," he wrote, referring to his wife. "I urge all near the scene to avoid the area."

Bourbon Street, in the city's French Quarter, is a famous party destination.

Some streets in and around the French Quarter were due to be closed for New Year's celebrations, with Canal Street expected to stay open unless traffic got too bad, the local outlet Fox 8 WVUE-TV reported.

As a result of the attack, the Sugar Bowl football game between the University of Georgia and the University of Notre Dame was postponed from Wednesday night to Thursday afternoon.

Local officials tried to assure the public that the city was now safe, with additional law enforcement deployed everywhere.

"The city of New Orleans is not only ready for game day today but also to host large-scale events," New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell said Thursday.

• There are a handful of bullish forces headed for markets and the economy next year.
• Goldman Sachs said there are five factors providing a tailwind for the market next year.
• Those include stronger growth, more rate cuts, and lower inflation.

Investors feeling nervous about markets and the economy have a number of reasons to cheer up, with several bullish factors set to keep the rally going next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Economists at the bank made several predictions for markets and the economy in 2025, some of which buck current expectations.

Some investors are starting to sour on next year's outlook, with over 34% of traders saying they were bearish on stocks over the next six months, according to the AAII's latest investor Sentiment Survey.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Expectations Index, a measure of how consumers feel about various parts of the economy, dropped to near-recessionary levels in December.

Yet, a handful of factors could keep the economy going strong or even stronger in 2025.

Here are five bullish calls the bank has made for the coming year.

1. The economy could grow more than expected

The US economy could expand even faster than investors are currently expecting. Goldman Sachs forecast GDP to grow 2.4% year-over-year by the fourth quarter of 2025, above the consensus estimate of 2% growth.

That increase will largely be fueled by strong consumer spending. Americans, bolstered by a strong job market and increased wealth from holding stocks, will likely ramp up their spending by 2.3% on a yearly basis in 2025, Goldman predicted, on par with consumer spending growth seen over the last two years.

2. Business investment will take off

Investment by businesses will probably far surpass expectations, Goldman said. The bank predicted that private investment in the economy would climb 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, above consensus estimates of around 3% growth.

"While the factory-building boom subsidized by the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act will slow, spending on equipment for those new factories and for artificial intelligence, the reinstatement of tax incentives, rising confidence, and lower short-term borrowing rates for small businesses should fuel roughly 5% growth in business investment," economists said.

3. The job market will strengthen

The employment picture could look a lot stronger in 2025. Unemployment will likely fall back to around 4% by the end of 2025, Goldman predicted, slightly lower than the 4.2% jobless rate recorded in November.

"Job openings remain high and strong final demand growth should keep labor demand growing robustly. Meanwhile, the surge in immigrant labor supply that the labor market struggled to fully absorb this year has already slowed sharply and will fade further," the note added.

4. The Fed will cut rates more than expected

Goldman Sachs is expecting the Fed to cut rates three times next year, with decreases to the fed funds rate coming in March, June, and September. That reflects a slightly more aggressive pace of easing than what investors and Fed officials themselves are expecting, with the latest projections showing the central bank eyeing two rate cuts for 2025.

"Both our baseline and probability-weighted Fed forecasts are more dovish than market pricing, which reflects both our confidence that the underlying inflation trend will continue to decline and our view that the risks for interest rates from policy changes under the second Trump administration are more two-sided than widely assumed," the bank said.

Economists have said that some of Trump's proposed policies, like his plan to levy steep tariffs, could cause inflation to spike and interest rates to rise. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term as president without a significant price increase, but his tariff plan this time around is much broader, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

5. Inflation will keep cooling

Price growth, though, will likely continue to decline, Goldman predicted. The bank forecast core personal expenditures inflation —the Fed's preferred measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices — to fall to 2.1% by the end of next year, down from the 2.8% growth recorded in November.

The decline will be partly driven by "catch-up inflation" ending next year, the bank said, referring to how real inflation in the economy often lags behind the official statistics. Areas that typically lag, like car insurance and rent prices, have started to cool in recent months.

Wage growth, another factor that influences inflation, is also starting to cool, which should help lower price growth. Wages grew just 3.9% over the last year, down from the recorded 4.7% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs data.

Goldman remains solidly bullish on stocks going into the new year. Previously, the bank's strategists predicted the S&P 500 could rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025, implying 10% upside from current levels.

• Russia's railway industry is in the midst of a big downturn, according to one Russian research firm.
• Investment in Russia's railways is being slashed by nearly a third next year, TASS reported.
• It complicates Russia's trade with China, which has relied partly on rail transport.

One of Russia's key trading channels with China is facing serious snags. That's a result of burdens stemming from Russia's war-driven economy, which have fueled a big slowdown in the nation's rail industry — a vital means of trade between Moscow and Beijing.

Russia's rail industry is in its worst slowdown since the Great Financial Crisis, with the downtrend "still going strong," according to an analysis from the Russian research firm MMI Research. Freight volume transported by Russian Railways, Russia's state-owned rail system, slumped 5% in the first 11 months of 2024 compared with the same period last year, according to MMI data cited by Bloomberg.

The slowdown is driven in part by Russia's need to ship war-related materials, which have worsened supply bottlenecks and slowed the trade of key commodities, like coal and aluminum, the outlet reported.

Investment in Russia's railroads is also being slashed, partly due to high interest rates in the nation, according to a report from the state-owned news agency TASS. Russian Railways said it would earmark just 890 billion rubles, or $8.5 billion, for its investment program next year, a 30% cut from investment in 2024, TASS reported.

The firm is mulling whether it should cut investment by another third through the end of the decade, the Russian outlet Kommersant reported. Russian Railways did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The changes spell bad news for Russia's trade with China, which has leaned on railway transport amid Western sanctions. Russia poured billions into its railways earlier this year partly to accommodate its increased trade with China.

The changes also speak to the growing costs of Russia's war against Ukraine, which have produced myriad economic problems for Moscow.

Russia's central bank raised interest rates to a record 21% earlier this year in an effort to lower sky-high inflation. The bank kept interest rates level in their policy decision last week, due to concerns about "excessive cooling" in Russia's wartime economy, according to the nation's top central banker.

• Companies are cracking down on job applicants trying to use AI to boost their prospects.
• 72% of leaders said they were raising their standards for hiring a candidate, a Workday report found.
• Recruiters say standards will tighten further as firms themselves use AI to weed out candidates.

AI was supposed to make the job hunt easier, but job seekers should expect landing a new gig harder in the coming years, thanks to companies growing increasingly suspicious of candidates using bots to get their foot in the door.

Hiring managers, keen to sniff out picture-perfect candidates that have used AI to augment their applications, are beginning to tighten their standards to interview and ultimately hire new employees, labor market sources told Business Insider.

Recruiters said that has already made the job market more competitive — and the selection will get even tighter as more companies adopt their own AI tools to sift through applicants.

In the first half of the year, 72% of business leaders said they were raising their standards for hiring applicants, according to a report from Workday. Meanwhile, 77% of companies said they intended to scale their use of AI in the recruiting process over the next year.

63% of recruiters and hiring decision makers said they already used AI as part of the recruiting process, up from 58% last year, a separate survey by Employ found.

Jeff Hyman, a veteran recruiter and the CEO of Recruit Rockstars, says AI software is growing more popular among hiring managers to weed through stacks of seemingly ideal candidates.

"Ironically, big companies are using AI to go through that stack, that AI has brought first place, and it's becoming this ridiculous tit-for-tat battle," Hyman told BI in an interview. "I would say human judgment … is what rules the day, but certainly, we use a lot of software to reduce a stack from 500 to 50, because you got to start somewhere," he later added.

Tim Sackett, the president of the tech staffing firm HRU Technical Resources, says some firms are beta-testing AI software that can allow companies to detect fraud on résumés — a development he thinks will make the job market significantly more competitive. That technology could become mainstream as soon as mid-2025, he speculated, given how fast AI tech is accelerating.

"It's just going to get worse," Sackett said of companies being more selective of new hires. "I mean, if more candidates become really used to utilizing AI to help them match a job better, to network better, it's just going to happen."

The interview-to-offer ratio at enterprise companies declined to 64% in July of this year, according to Employ's survey, which indicates companies are interviewing fewer candidates before making a hiring decision.

"Recruiters are scrutinizing candidates more closely," Hyman adds. "My candidate interviews have become longer and more in-depth, designed to truly test a candidate's abilities beyond a polished résumé."

Inundated by AI

Employers aren't big fans of AI as a tool for candidates to get a leg up. That's partly because it's led to hiring systems being flooded with applications sent using AI, Sackett and Hyman said, which has made hiring decisions way harder.

Workday found that job applications grew at four times the pace of job openings in the first half of this year, with recruiters processing 173 million applications, while there were just 19 million job requisitions.

Having too many candidates for a position was the third most common problem recruiters faced in 2024, Employ added.

Hyman estimates the number of applications he reviews has doubled over the last year. Some of the more lucrative job postings are seeing close to 1,000 applications, he said, whereas they would have attracted 100-200 applications before the pandemic.

"I mean, a stack so big, that you can't even go through it, it's just not even possible to spend that kind of time," he said.

Candidates sending in applications spruced up with AI has also made it harder to determine who can actually do the job.

Sackett says he's seen an increase in "false positive" hiring, where a worker is hired and is quickly let go of their position when it becomes clear they're unable to do the job.

"I think what hiring managers are concerned about: Is this CV real when I'm talking to this person? Am I talking to the real person or are they using AI in the background?" Sackett said. He recalled one client he worked with who realized multiple candidates responded to interview questions in the same way, likely because they were using AI to write their responses. "So I think people just want to know that I'm getting what I think I'm getting."

• Many Gen Xers are caring for both their children and parents, and it's hurting retirement savings.
• 56% of Gen X investors were financially supporting either their parents or their kids, Nationwide found.
• The financial burden of supporting two groups has some Gen Xers doubting if they'll retire at all.

Steve Mullen, 54, is being pulled three ways.

On the one hand, he and his wife are caregivers for each of their mothers, which has required them to pitch in up to 40 hours of caregiving a week and tens of thousands of dollars over the course of decades. On the other hand, they are still supporting their college-age son, who needs help with housing and $25,000 for tuition every year. All the while, he runs his own PR business, in which making more money is a "constant" concern.

At times, he said, the burden is extraordinary.

"It's incredibly stressful," he told Business Insider, adding that money was always a back-of-mind worry, despite being relatively financially stable. "I just pray we don't go into another one of these periods where my mother's in the hospital."

His situation is becoming increasingly common among Gen Xers — a generation sandwiched between their retiring parents and still-dependent children — and, more frequently, needing to support both groups at once. It is a dilemma that has put Gen X further behind in saving for retirement compared to other groups, financial planning experts told BI.

There are signs that the dual burden of needing to support kids and parents is becoming more common. A 2020 study from the AARP and the National Alliance for Caregiving found that among Gen Xers who are taking care of a parent, around 50% also have a child under the age of 18. A study conducted by Nationwide showed that 56% are financially supporting either their parents or their kids.

Gen Xers in caretaking roles are more likely to show signs of financial strain. Of those who were taking care of a child or a parent, 21% said they had taken out significant amounts of debt, and 20% said they were unable to save for retirement, per the Nationwide study.

According to a separate survey of 35- to 60-year-olds conducted by Carewell, 75% of those taking care of both a parent and a child said they struggled to save for retirement, while 63% said they lived paycheck to paycheck.

Gen Xers speaking with BI said they doubted if they would ever retire, mostly because they were set back by financial obligations related to caregiving.

40% of Gen Xers also expect to work part-time after they retire, a Prudential Financial survey found.

Julie, a woman in her fifties based in Ohio, said she had spent over $100,000 taking care of her mother over the course of 15 years. She has less than $70,000 saved for retirement, well below what's recommended by financial advisors, who say you should have around six times your annual salary saved by the time you hit 50.

"I'm exhausted financially, and, frankly, I didn't consider growing up I'd be the financial rock of my family," she said.

The sandwiched generation

By some measures, Gen Xers are even more ill-prepared for retirement than baby boomers. According to surveys conducted by Prudential Financial, the median retirement savings for 55-year-olds is just under $48,000, with 18% having saved nothing at all as of last year.

Meanwhile, two-thirds of 55-year-olds said they were afraid of outliving their savings. That's the highest level among any age group of Prudential's 2024 survey, with 59% of 65-year-olds saying they worried they would outlive their savings.

Joe Wadford, a Bank of America economist, thinks Gen Xers are uniquely burdened by taking care of their parents and children at the same time, largely because more children are living at home than in previous generations.

Around 57% of men and 55% of women between the ages of 18 and 24 lived at home with their parents in 2022, according to US Census data published this year. That compares to 52% of men and 35% of women in that age range who were living with their parents in 1960.

Satayan Mahajan, the CEO of the financial advisory firm Datalign Advisory, said that caring for parents and children simultaneously was one reason his Gen X clients commonly cited for falling behind in preparing for retirement.

Market crashes during formative times in their career, such as during the early 2000s and the Great Financial Crisis, are another reason why many have less saved up.

"This sandwiched portion of Gen Xers are really in a lot of trouble. I mean, I have to say — and I don't want to sound so negative — but I think they're in a tough spot and they have a bunch of things that hit them pretty hard," Mahajan said.

And the outlook remains uncertain for Gen X. While boomers are estimated to pass on around $80 trillion in wealth, most of that money looks primed to head to millennials, not Gen X, Mahajan said.

"They're kind of in an awkward spot," he added. "And so there's a large swath of Gen Xers who may be in a bit of a lurch."

Uncertainty is also swirling around the availability of government retirement funds. Social Security could be depleted as soon as 2033, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, when most Gen Xers are already retired or in their final decade of work.

Brandon Goldstein, a financial planner at Prudential, said many Gen Xers still have time to catch up on their retirement savings, though he believes many will have to work longer than may want to.

More older Americans are already deciding to postpone their retirement. 19% of adults 65 and over were still employed in 2023, according to a Pew Research analysis.

"For someone to be completely in a spot where they don't need to work again or they feel very comfortable, they're probably going to still have to work a little bit," Goldstein said.

• Russia's labor shortage has businesses turning to teens and retirees to fill positions.
• Openings for workers as young as 14 or older than 55 have jumped.
• The nation was short around 5 million workers last year, Russia's Academy of Sciences estimated.

Russia's wartime economy is dealing with a difficult labor shortage, and the problem is pushing companies to broaden the age range of new hires as they look to fill their ranks.

An analysis cited by the Russian news site Nakanune showed that job openings tailored to "young applicants" — as young as 14 — soared 119% year-over-year in the first quarter. That adds to last year's 289% increase, with openings for young workers rising from 14,500 to 42,000, the analysis found.

In catering and retail, the demand for workers between the ages of 16 and 18 has doubled, Bloomberg reported, citing an analysis from the Russian ad agency Avito.

Demand is also growing for older workers. Openings for specialists over the age of 55 climbed 65% in the culture and education sectors in the third quarter, while openings for specialists in the services sector rose 12%, according to a study viewed by the Russian state-owned news agency TASS.

The average age of specialists has also climbed by three to six years since 2022, per Bloomberg, citing an analysis from the Russian recruiting agency SuperJob.

Russia has also dialed back rules to allow younger people to work, or to allow retirement-age people to continue working.

Last year, Putin approved the employment of workers as young as 14 in some circumstances, though Russia's legal working age is still technically set at 16 years old.

In 2018, Russia raised the retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 63 for women. The nation also plans on raising pension payments for working retirees early next year, with retirement-age people who choose to work potentially receiving an average minimum increase of 1.3 million rubles a year, or $12,264, according to estimates from Russia's Deputy Prime Minister.

Russia's working-age population took a hit in 2022, when millions of Russians fled the nation after the start of the war in Ukraine. The nation is short around 2 million workers, Bloomberg reported, citing an analysis from FinExpertiza, one of the nation's largest auditors. Last year, the Russian Academy of Sciences estimated the nation was short around 5 million workers.

Meanwhile, around 73% of businesses are experiencing a staffing shortage, according to polls conducted by Russia's central bank.

• Nouriel Roubini thinks higher inflation and slower growth are coming on the back of Trump's policies.
• He pointed to Trump's plans to levy steep tariffs and deport millions, which could stoke price growth.
• The pace of inflation could nearly double to 5% in the coming years, Roubini speculated.

Trump's policies are raising the risk for a handful of troubling economic consequences, according to one of Wall Street's most pessimistic forecasters.

Nouriel Roubini — also known as "Dr. Doom" for his bombastic and frequently bearish takes on the economy — said he believes some of Trump's policies could raise prices and slow growth in the US. That could involve inflation rising as high as 5% in the coming years,

he said speaking to Bloomberg on Wednesday, about double the current pace of price growth in the US.

Roubini said interest rates could also rise due to Trump's economic agenda. He predicted that long-end bond yields, which partly reflect interest rate expectations in the economy, could reach as high as 8%.

"Some of the economic policies may lead to higher economic growth," Roubini said, pointing to Trump's push to loosen regulation and slash the corporate tax rate. "But unfortunately, many of the other policies have the implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth."

Roubini pointed in particular to Trump's tariff plan, with the president-elect vowing to levy steep tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, and a 10%-20% blanket tariff on most US imports. Experts have said the cost of tariffs could be passed onto buyers, with some businesses already floating future price increases.

Trump has also promised to slash corporate taxes and eliminate taxes in other areas, such as income from tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. Roubini suggested that could spell trouble given the overarching picture of the US debt, as debt is inherently inflationary.

Trump's agenda could raise the national debt by as much as $15.5 trillion from 2026 through 2035, according to an analysis from the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget.

Trump's plan to carry out mass deportations could also impact the outlook for inflation and growth, Roubini noted, given that immigration has bolstered the workforce and helped tame inflation.

"So definitely mass deportation is stagflationary," he added.

Roubini has repeatedly warned that Trump's second term in office could raise the risk of stagflation, a scenario involving stubborn prices, sluggish economic growth, and steep unemployment. Some analysts describe the situation as even worse than a recession due to the chaos that unfolded the last time the US was in the midst of a stagflationary crisis.

Other forecasters have also warned of the potential for higher inflation in Trump's second term. Deutsche Bank analysts floated a potential inflation increase in 2025, adding it was possible the Fed may not lower interest rates to keep high prices in check.

Trump, though, has repeatedly disputed the idea that his policies are inflationary and said he would lower prices for Americans. He enacted tariffs in his first term as president without a significant inflation increase, but experts say that his policies this time around are far more wide-reaching, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

"Trump will once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods when we send him back to the White House," Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson from the Republican National Committee, previously told BI.