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Rate cuts, strong employment, and lower prices: 5 bullish predictions for 2025 from Goldman Sachs

31 December 2024 at 10:34
Green arrow and stock trader pointing up.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images; Bryan Erickson/Business Insider

  • There are a handful of bullish forces headed for markets and the economy next year.
  • Goldman Sachs said there are five factors providing a tailwind for the market next year.
  • Those include stronger growth, more rate cuts, and lower inflation.

Investors feeling nervous about markets and the economy have a number of reasons to cheer up, with several bullish factors set to keep the rally going next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Economists at the bank made several predictions for markets and the economy in 2025, some of which buck current expectations.

Some investors are starting to sour on next year's outlook, with over 34% of traders saying they were bearish on stocks over the next six months, according to the AAII's latest investor Sentiment Survey.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Expectations Index, a measure of how consumers feel about various parts of the economy, dropped to near-recessionary levels in December.

Yet, a handful of factors could keep the economy going strong or even stronger in 2025.

Here are five bullish calls the bank has made for the coming year.

1. The economy could grow more than expected

The US economy could expand even faster than investors are currently expecting. Goldman Sachs forecast GDP to grow 2.4% year-over-year by the fourth quarter of 2025, above the consensus estimate of 2% growth.

That increase will largely be fueled by strong consumer spending. Americans, bolstered by a strong job market and increased wealth from holding stocks, will likely ramp up their spending by 2.3% on a yearly basis in 2025, Goldman predicted, on par with consumer spending growth seen over the last two years.

2. Business investment will take off

Investment by businesses will probably far surpass expectations, Goldman said. The bank predicted that private investment in the economy would climb 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, above consensus estimates of around 3% growth.

Graph showing private investment increase expected in 2025
Private investment growth is expected to solidly beat expectations next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

"While the factory-building boom subsidized by the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act will slow, spending on equipment for those new factories and for artificial intelligence, the reinstatement of tax incentives, rising confidence, and lower short-term borrowing rates for small businesses should fuel roughly 5% growth in business investment," economists said.

3. The job market will strengthen

The employment picture could look a lot stronger in 2025. Unemployment will likely fall back to around 4% by the end of 2025, Goldman predicted, slightly lower than the 4.2% jobless rate recorded in November.

"Job openings remain high and strong final demand growth should keep labor demand growing robustly. Meanwhile, the surge in immigrant labor supply that the labor market struggled to fully absorb this year has already slowed sharply and will fade further," the note added.

4. The Fed will cut rates more than expected

Goldman Sachs is expecting the Fed to cut rates three times next year, with decreases to the fed funds rate coming in March, June, and September. That reflects a slightly more aggressive pace of easing than what investors and Fed officials themselves are expecting, with the latest projections showing the central bank eyeing two rate cuts for 2025.

"Both our baseline and probability-weighted Fed forecasts are more dovish than market pricing, which reflects both our confidence that the underlying inflation trend will continue to decline and our view that the risks for interest rates from policy changes under the second Trump administration are more two-sided than widely assumed," the bank said.

Economists have said that some of Trump's proposed policies, like his plan to levy steep tariffs, could cause inflation to spike and interest rates to rise. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term as president without a significant price increase, but his tariff plan this time around is much broader, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

5. Inflation will keep cooling

Price growth, though, will likely continue to decline, Goldman predicted. The bank forecast core personal expenditures inflation β€”the Fed's preferred measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices β€” to fall to 2.1% by the end of next year, down from the 2.8% growth recorded in November.

The decline will be partly driven by "catch-up inflation" ending next year, the bank said, referring to how real inflation in the economy often lags behind the official statistics. Areas that typically lag, like car insurance and rent prices, have started to cool in recent months.

Graph showing real time rent prices vs. pce housing data
Official rent inflation figures have started to catch up with real-time rent data.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Department of Commerce

Wage growth, another factor that influences inflation, is also starting to cool, which should help lower price growth. Wages grew just 3.9% over the last year, down from the recorded 4.7% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs data.

Goldman remains solidly bullish on stocks going into the new year. Previously, the bank's strategists predicted the S&P 500 could rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025, implying 10% upside from current levels.

Read the original article on Business Insider

5 real-estate investors and agents share their 2025 market predictions and advice on how to capitalize

31 December 2024 at 01:00
A row of brick townhomes

ferrantraite/Getty Images

  • Real-estate investors shared their predictions for 2025 and top advice.
  • One investor says to think long-term and don't expect interest rates to drop.
  • Another says to spot opportunities by looking at 'days on market' on a listing.

Experienced real-estate investors don't expect mortgage rates to drop significantly in 2025, but they tend to agree that it could be an excellent year to invest in a property.

Arguably, any year is a good time to dip your toe in if you're financially prepared.

"Some of the best advice I can give somebody is just understand that you can never perfectly time anything," said Matt Laricy, a Chicago-based investor and agent who has done over $1 billion in sales and closed thousands of deals.

His advice applies to prospective homeowners, as well: "You have to live somewhere, so is it really worth waiting one or two years to maybe get it for 10% less, but in the meantime, you spend 20% more on rent? Are you really winning?

"Just know that the best time is when you're financially ready."

Here's what Laricy and other veteran investors and agents predict will happen in the real estate game in 2025.

Dana Bull says to think long-term and not wait for rates to drop

dana bull
Dana Bull is a real-estate agent, investor, and consultant.

Courtesy of Dana Bull

If you're looking to buy a home or invest in real estate in 2025, don't wait for rates to drop before making a move.

"I wouldn't base my whole plan around, 'Well, I keep hearing rates are supposed to drop,'" said Massachusetts-based investor and agent Dana Bull, noting that current rates are in line with the historical average. "This is kind of where rates sit. So, if they were to drop, that would be great, but I wouldn't be banking on it."

Instead, figure out how to make the numbers work in a high-rate environment. That'll mean getting creative.

"Look at some alternative leasing approaches. Usually, they're more lucrative if they're shorter," said Bull, who has always done long-term rentals but is experimenting with mid-term in 2025 to improve her cash flow. "One idea would be to start with something like an Airbnb, with the goal of transitioning after two or three years into something more passive, like a long-term rental."

Real estate is a long-term game, she added: "You have to look beyond year one β€” the numbers are always going to be tight year one, no matter what the market conditions are β€” so, what are your projections going to be by year five?

"And then, what can you do in the interim to maybe make this property work? That would be focusing on neighborhoods and communities where you can balance both of these plays: It's going to attract a short-term rental tenant but, down the road, you can pivot into a longer-term tenant."

Matt Laricy predicts the market will 'take off like a rocket ship'

matt laricy
Matt Laricy, the managing broker of Laricy, is a top real-estate agent in Chicago.

Courtesy of Matt Laricy

"I expect 2025 to be the best market since 2022. I think the market is going to take off like a rocket ship," said the top Chicago real-estate agent, adding that, "obviously, every market is extremely local."

In his market, rents are very high, and, "it's almost cheaper, when you factor out your down payment on a monthly basis, to buy than it is to rent," he explained. "So, you are getting a lot of people who are going to buy just as a result of that." Plus, employees should have more certainty around their company's return-to-office plan, which could promote settling down and buying: "A lot of people rented because they were uncertain of their future."

Laricy also predicts that prospective buyers will adjust their rate expectations: "I think people have now realized that 2 and 3% are never going to happen, and are like, 'At a certain point, I either have to continue to be a renter for the rest of my life, or I have to be a buyer.'"

His advice for navigating a competitive market is, first and foremost, understand the basics: where you want to buy, what type of property you want to buy, and a realistic budget.

"It sounds easy. But for buyers, it's really hard," he said.

Regarding your budget, Laricy said to assume a home will sell for higher than what it's listed at. Study your market to see how much homes typically go over the asking price and factor that in. If it's $50,000, for example, and your budget is $500,000, look at homes listed for $450,000.

If you know exactly what you want and what you can afford, you'll be able to move quickly, which is essential in a competitive market.

"Know that you have to do things on their time, not your time," said Laricy, referring to the seller. "When something comes on the market, you need to move, and you need to move fast."

Mike Zuber says it'll be a good market for investors and to focus on 'days on market'

mike zuber
Real estate investor Mike Zuber and his wife Olivia.

Courtesy of Mike Zuber

California-based investor Mike Zuber expects 2025 to be a "unique" opportunity for investors.

"I think there are some people that will just have to sell β€” life events, death, divorce, all of that," he said. "And unless the house is perfect, no owner is going to buy it. The general public is basically out of the housing market. So if you have a house that's a little dated, a little old, a little bit too close to busy streets, you're going to eventually have to sell to an investor β€” and we're going to write offers that make sense at a high cost of capital, call it 7, 8%."

His advice is to pay attention to the number of days a property has been on the market to land the best deals.

"Go on the general MLS, Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin, and just look for homes that have been on the market for 50 days, 60 days, 90 days, 100 days," he said. "We're seeing days on market explode, and that just tells you that that seller is eventually going to be motivated or they're going to just take it off the market. So, do they need to sell or do they want to sell?"

If they need to sell, you'll be in a better position to negotiate.

As for what number to look for exactly, start by understanding the average 'days on market' in your area. Then, look for listings where that number is double, said Zuber: "Anything that's two X the average days on market is a good sign to go fishing."

Nyasia Casey says to know the laws in your area and understand seasonality

nyasia casey
Real-estate agent and investor Nyasia Casey.

Courtesy of Nyasia Casey

Rules and regulations that may affect real-estate investors are constantly shifting. In New York City, where investor Nyasia Casey lives, a new law going into effect in June 2025 shifts the burden of broker fees from renters to landlords.

"Essentially, landlords have to pay broker fees now β€” not the tenants. So, if you're a landlord, you have to factor in that cost now," said Casey, who rents in NYC but invests in Baltimore. "A lot of landlord and tenant laws are changing in certain areas that you need to be mindful of because it will affect how much money you're putting in and how much money you have to set aside."

She also emphasized that seasonality matters, whether you're buying and holding or buying and flipping.

She said that as a general rule of thumb, "buy in the winter, sell in the spring."

Whether you're listing a rental or trying to sell a flip, you want to find a tenant or a buyer in the summer.

"Once you get past October, you're going to have a difficult time, and you may lose money, whether it be you have to lower your price for a flip, or you have to lower your rental price just to get someone in there so that you don't bleed money," she said. "So just be mindful of when you're putting that house on the market, when you're buying it, and when it's going to be finished."

Ludomir Wanot encourages investors to save up to make a move

ludomir wanot
Ludomir Wanot is a Seattle-based real estate investor and entrepreneur.

Courtest of Ludomir Wanot

"As of October, we're seeing about a 29% year-over-year increase in homes for sale, so what I'm seeing is the market is showing signs of balancing and the conditions are becoming more favorable for buyers compared to the last five years," said Seattle-based investor Ludomir Wanot, who built his wealth wholesaling and now runs an AI company that helps lenders communicate with their clients. "And so the best thing right now we could do is save our money for opportunities that arise."

He doesn't expect rates to drop significantly in 2025, "so learning and utilizing creative financing is going to be your go-to," he said, recommending strategies such as seller financing, subject-to agreements, and private lending could help investors lock in better terms and avoid excessive borrowing costs.

Wanot's top advice heading into the new year, however, is to actually implement what you learn about online. Taking action could be as small as joining a real-estate community and networking.

"People are buying programs, they're going to the events, they're watching people come up onstage and talk about how wealthy they got through a particular strategy. But very few people actually implement anything they're being taught," he said.

"The day we actually stop listening to and reading all these stories, podcasts, and YouTube videos and actually apply ourselves is the day we're finally going to start seeing progress in our lives."

Read the original article on Business Insider

A self-made millionaire who 'hates real estate' shares the investment strategy he used to get in without having to manage property

21 December 2024 at 03:52
brennan Schlagbaum
Brennan Schlagbaum quit his CPA job in 2021 to run his business, Budgetdog, full-time.

Courtesy of Brennan Schlagbaum

  • Brennan Schlagbaum has zero interest in managing properties but wants exposure to real estate.
  • His solution is to invest in real estate syndications, which are completely hands-off.
  • This is when a group of investors pool capital to purchase a single investment.

Brennan Schlagbaum recognizes the advantages of real estate β€” from the tax benefits to portfolio diversification β€” but he's not willing to buy and manage an investment property.

He says he has his hands full with simply maintaining a primary residence: "I hate real estate with a passion. If something breaks in my house, I call somebody."

To benefit from real estate without having to actually own and operate properties, he invests in real estate syndications.

"I think it's one of the best ways for somebody that hates real estate but understands the tax benefits of real estate to get in because you don't have to do anything," the self-made millionaire and founder of Budgetdog, who built his wealth primarily investing in low-cost index funds, told Business Insider.

How real-estate syndications work

In real-estate syndication deals, a group of investors pools together their capital to purchase a single property managed by the syndicator.

Once the investor contributes capital, their role in the deal becomes completely passive. The real-estate syndicator is responsible for finding the deal, executing the transaction, and, ultimately, delivering returns to the investors.

"You lose control from that aspect. You don't really have control over how that performs," said Schlagbaum, who said he invests in five multi-family syndications. But if you work with a syndicator with a good track record that you trust, "it's essentially an index fund."

He invests with a syndicator that specializes in multi-family properties.

"They go in, upgrade the units, increase rent prices in a really high-demand area that's underpriced, own and operate that building for a couple of years, and then typically sell it after a three- to five-year period, sometimes up to seven," he explained. "And you don't do anything as an investor; you're just an equity partner. So you literally send some capital their way and hope they do their job."

A good option for established investors looking for hands-off strategies

BI has spoken to a variety of established investors who, after building wealth by acquiring rental properties, are turning to syndication deals for a more passive experience.

"You hear that real-estate investing is passive, and that's certainly not been my experience," said self-made millionaire Tess Waresmith, who owns five units across three properties. "I still think it's a wonderful way to invest, but it's not passive like investing in the stock market is."

She invested in her first syndication in 2023 and likes that it opens the door to bigger investment opportunities.

"I check out the deal and make sure it's something that feels good to me, and then when I invest the money, I'm hands-off. I'm not involved in the day-to-day decision-making of the property," she said. "But as an investor, I get to benefit from investing in the larger unit properties."

Carl and Mindy Jensen, a financially independent couple who have started shifting toward passive-investing strategies, including real estate syndication, also appreciate the hands-off nature of these deals. But it's hard to know what your returns will look like, Carl told BI: "The people running these syndications will tell you they're expecting numbers, and it's infrequently accurate."

It's important to remember that the syndicator is "probably using their best, sunny-day scenarios." That said, "every syndication we've had has actually outperformed the original numbers."

To participate in this type of partnership, you typically have to be an accredited investor, meaning you either must have a net worth of over $1 million or an income of over $200,000 (individually) over the past two years. There's also typically a minimum investment requirement, depending on the syndicator.

But there are workarounds, said Schlagbaum, especially if you're part of a real-estate community or network.

Investors who are part of the community he's built, for example, don't necessarily have to be accredited to participate, since "the SEC deems pre-existing relationships allowable," he said. "They just get access to the deal because they know me."

Sometimes, "Getting around those hurdles is just knowing the right people."

Read the original article on Business Insider

My wife and I used our military benefits to buy a $1M property in San Diego. It kickstarted my real-estate business.

18 December 2024 at 02:05
a man in a black shirt smiles for a photo outside
Erwin Jacob Miciano.

Theressa Miciano

  • Erwin Jacob Miciano left the Navy in 2021 to focus on his real estate business full-time.
  • Miciano and his wife used VA loans to buy a triplex and start their business, Semi Homes.
  • Semi Homes helps homeowners avoid foreclosure and launched Miciano's real estate career.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Erwin Jacob Miciano, a 27-year-old real-estate investor and the owner of Semi Homes in South El Monte, California. It has been edited for length and clarity.

I'm a dedicated dad, a committed husband, a real-estate investor, and the co-owner of Semi Homes, a real-estate company specializing in direct-to-seller transactions and marketing strategies. I co-own the company with my wife, Theressa.

I don't have a college degree. I graduated from high school in 2015 and first worked at Wetzel's Pretzels. I decided to join the Navy to support my family abroad in the Philippines and my mom and brother in the US.

In March 2016, after three months of boot camp, I completed the basic training to become a photojournalist. Until September 2021, I served as a mass communication specialist, with most of my overseas years based in Japan, stationed on the USS Ronald Reagan.

I separated from the military in 2021 to pursue real estate full-time

My Navy job included writing press releases, aerial photography, videography, and printing. In later years, I was stationed at the Naval Hospital Balboa in San Diego, where we covered COVID-19, and I was deployed with USNS Mercy to San Pedro in Los Angeles during the pandemic.

I was presented with an "early out" program because of overmanning in my job, and it allowed me to complete my contract a couple of years early. I had already started my business, but leaving the military allowed me to pursue it full-time.

I also wanted to spend more time with my young family. My eldest was born in January 2020.

My wife and I met on the day I arrived on the USS Ronald Reagan in 2016

We became friends through the first-response/firefighting team, where she worked as an electrician. We also noticed each other at church services, and she invited me to her baptism ceremony, where she was baptized inside an open jet fuel tank.

Early in our relationship, we lived together in a small Japanese apartment. Then, we spent about a year doing long-distance, with me still deploying on the carrier and her based in San Diego.

After a year of dating, we got married, and soon after some vacation in the US, we discovered we were expecting our first child. During most of her pregnancy, Theressa lived alone until I got stationed in San Diego around her seventh month.

That same year, I became deeply interested in personal finance and real-estate investing, inspired by stories of blue-collar workers achieving financial freedom through real estate. I learned the most from the BiggerPockets podcasts.

We were motivated to become first-time homebuyers

We were eager to apply what we had learned and planned to use the VA loan entitlement from our military service. VA entitlement is how much lenders can lend to a veteran or active duty member without providing a down payment.

We aimed to buy a multifamily property β€” ideally a duplex, triplex, or fourplex β€” so we could live in one unit and rent the others to offset our mortgage. Today, this strategy is known as house hacking.

Being stationed in San Diego gave us a few key advantages

The housing allowance we received as military members was higher than in most US locations, boosting our household income to about $10,000-$12,000 monthly. This allowance was discontinued once we both left the military. Theressa left the Navy almost a year before I did at the end of 2020.

Second, the VA loan allowed us to buy a multifamily property with zero down payment.

Third, we included 75% of the gross rental income from the property in our loan application, increasing our approved loan amount. On paper, our monthly gross increased to $15,000-$17,000.

Finally, new legislation removed local VA loan limits for first-time users, giving us more purchasing power.

After months of searching, we found a triplex listed for $1.2 million

We offered $1 million and settled at $1.1 million. By March 2020, we had moved into a three-bedroom unit while renting out the other two for about $4,000 a month, reducing our housing costs to less than what one-bedroom rentals were going for at the time. This was the start of Semi Homes.

After living in the triplex for two years, we moved in with my mom and brother in September 2021 in the San Gabriel Valley. The triplex is now fully a rental property generating $1,500 to $2,000 monthly profit.

My day-to-day work involves meeting with homeowners who are looking for support in selling their properties

We now buy properties and resell them for a profit. We also help sellers in deep foreclosure and save them from it. My role is to get my team in front of our target audience and guide clients through the entire process, all the way to the closing table.

There are also late-night administrative hours and business-building, which I work on three to four nights a week. The biggest change from my Navy days is that I'm no longer away from my family for long periods β€” a small freedom I cherish.

I feel both fulfilled and successful

While Semi Homes started as a way to build wealth and achieve financial freedom for my family, it's grown into something more.

We stay in this tough business because we truly believe in the value we provide to the individuals we work with. I'm focused on building our online presence and spreading the word that foreclosing is not the only option.

I see myself in real estate for the rest of my life.

Want to share your story about getting on the property ladder? Email Lauryn Haas at [email protected].

Read the original article on Business Insider

Construction trade group leaders look forward to new leadership under Trump: 'Relief on the horizon'

26 November 2024 at 13:01

Leaders from two of the nation's top construction trade groups told Fox News Digital they are looking forward to the new Trump administration with hopes their industry will be burdened by fewer regulations and policies enacted under President Biden that they said stymied additional growth in their sector.

On Monday, the Biden administration touted the addition of 1.6 million new construction and manufacturing jobs. However, Ben Brubeck, vice president of regulatory affairs for the Associated Builders and Contractors, cautioned that beneath this seemingly big announcement, "the growth can be much better if we're in the right economic and policy environment."Β 

Brubeck said his association's members have broadly indicated disappointment at the opportunities available to them under various Biden administration programs, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IJA), the CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA).Β 

"We survey our members on a pretty regular basis, and the number of members who reported participation in the IJA- and CHIPS- and IRA- and ARPA-funded projects has been pretty β€” it's been low," Brubeck said. "It's been less than expected."

WHITE HOUSE INSISTS BIDEN, HARRIS HAVE β€˜ONE OF MOST SUCCESSFUL ADMINISTRATIONS IN HISTORY’ DESPITE 2024 LOSS

Brubeck pointed to the fact that it has taken a long time for the money from these programs to be disbursed due to burdensome regulations, such as permitting requirements. He also pointed to oppressive labor policies, such as project labor agreements and increased borrowing costs as other elements that have added to less growth than could have been seen otherwise under President Biden.Β 

Brian Turmail, the vice president of public affairs and workforce for the Associated General Contractors of America, also noted the failure of Biden's major construction investments due to regulations and review processes.Β 

BIDEN ADMIN AIMS TO PUSH TOWNS, CITIES TO ADOPT GREEN ENERGY BUILDING CODES: β€˜VERY SUSPICIOUS’

"Our analysis is [the Biden administration] kind of got in their own way affecting the market, because they couldn't help themselves but to put in so many kinds of social and environmental rules on top of their funding that they slowed down the progress they so desperately wanted to see," Turmail said. He also pointed out that the administration "put a lot of new strings" on semiconductor plant construction that has stymied growth.

Turmail and Brubeck said they have hopes growth in the construction sector will ramp up under the Trump administration as companies manage their way through federal requirements enacted under Biden and see others potentially rolled back.Β 

I HAD A JOB ON THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE UNTIL BIDEN FIRED ME TO SATISFY CLIMATE EXTREMISTS

"The irony is that, by the time President Trump comes back into office, we do anticipate a big bump up in infrastructure construction," Turmail said. "Because all those projects where they've announced funding over the last two to three years will finally clear their environmental hurdle and begin construction."

"Our federal contractors are completely on the sidelines right now for these large-scale projects, and this all started at the beginning of the year in January," Brubeck added. "So, they're really excited for the potential of regulatory relief on the horizon as a result of the Trump administration coming in."Β 

The White House did not provide Fox News Digital with an on-the-record comment in time for publication.

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