❌

Normal view

There are new articles available, click to refresh the page.
Before yesterdayMain stream

Mark Zuckerberg says Meta will have 1.3M GPUs for AI by year-end

24 January 2025 at 07:39

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that the company plans to significantly up its capital expenditures this year as it aims to keep pace with rivals in the cutthroat AI space. In a Facebook post Friday, Zuckerberg said that Meta expects to spend $60 billion-$80 billion on CapEx in 2025, primarily on data centers and growing […]

Β© 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.

African fintech Moniepoint gets Visa backing, plans to work on contactless payments

23 January 2025 at 04:01

Visa has joined African fintech Moniepoint as a new investor. The business banking and payments platform confirmed to TechCrunch that it received a β€œstrategic investment” from the global payments giant as both companies look to drive financial inclusion and support the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Africa. Sources close to the deal […]

Β© 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only.

Michael Shvo says his glitzy Miami Beach condo project is just getting started

22 January 2025 at 13:09
Michael Shvo and Peter Marino
Michael Shvo and Peter Marino at the Raleigh.

Alexander Tamargo/Getty Images for SHVO

  • Michael Shvo and investors bought the Raleigh Hotel in 2019 as part of a luxury condo development plan.
  • Now, the sales firm Newmark is pitching the development.
  • Shvo says the effort is to buy out an investor in the luxury project.

The developer Michael Shvo has built a $3 billion collection of trophy real estate in a wager that luxury assets would outperform.

His most ambitious ground-up development project to date, a condo and hotel planned for Miami Beach, is now getting underway, Shvo told Business Insider.

"In the last three months, we've put a hundred million dollars of new money into the deal," he said.

At the oceanfront site, called the Raleigh, Shvo plans a luxury hotel, an exclusive beach club, and a condo tower designed by the star architect Peter Marino.

One of the investors in the development, however, is seeking to pull out, Shvo said, declining to identify that investor.

The commercial real-estate sales and services firm Newmark has been hired to shop the investor's stake. In recent weeks, Newmark has begun to distribute marketing materials to prospective buyers that describe details of the planned development.

Two Miami-based developers who were familiar with the offering said they believed it was a signal that the entire project could come up for sale.

Shvo denied that.

"There's no sale of the Raleigh," he said. "It's a recapitalization of one of the equity partners."

Shvo declined to say how large the partner's ownership interest was or how much it was seeking to recoup in the potential sale.

He said that the project was on strong financial footing and was moving forward.

"We just literally just started major construction on the site," Shvo said.

Newmark was previously hired by Shvo in September to find a buyer for a block of 44 unsold apartments at a recently finished Mandarin Oriental branded condo building that Shvo erected on Wilshire Boulevard in Beverly Hills after a tepid response from condo buyers.

A spokeswoman for Newmark declined to comment.

An appetite for glitzy trophy properties

Shvo, a 52-year-old former luxury residential broker turned developer, made a splash in recent years in the commercial real estate business by acquiring billions of dollars of pricey property assets across the country. The purchases included the Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco and 711 Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.

An investment group led by Shvo bought three adjacent historic Art Deco hotels, the Raleigh, the Richmond, and the South Seas, along the Miami Beach waterfront in 2019 to amass the current development site. He paid roughly $243 million for the properties.

Shvo planned to renovate and redevelop the sites and tapped Rosewood, an upscale Hong Kong-based hospitality operator, to manage the new hotel and residences.

To help publicize the project, Shvo installed an elaborate temporary garden of lush plantings and fanciful animal sculptures by the late French artists Claude and François-Xavier Lalanne. And he held upscale dinner parties catered by the renowned Italian restaurant Langosteria, which has said it will open its first American outpost at the project.

Despite early buzz and luxury pedigree, preliminary site work had never progressed into full-bore construction.

One hurdle Shvo has appeared to face are pre-sales at the sky-high values he has sought to achieve at the planned condo β€” a prerequisite to securing a loan large enough to fund construction.

The developer has said publicly that he has secured roughly $250 million of pre-sales at the condo building and had locked more than a dozen of the project's 42 planned apartments into contract.

But financial information being distributed by Newmark and reviewed by Business Insider state that as of December, Shvo had pre-sold 5 apartments totaling $67 million. According to Newmark, the sales were at an average price per square foot of roughly $4,400 β€” a lofty figure, but still short of the roughly $6,000 that Shvo had boasted the project would achieve.

A person who has access to a recent financial report prepared by the auditing firm Deloitte for Shvo and his partners in the Raleigh said that the document showed that the ownership group has had to pay enormous sums to carry the property for the past five years, including millions of dollars spent on taxes, insurance, and other costs annually.

In 2023, nearly $20 million was paid in interest on the property's current $190 million mortgage alone, which is held by the Miami based lender BH3, according to the person, whose identity is known to Business Insider. The person did not want to be named because the financial information being shared was considered confidential.

That debt on the property was due to expire on January 16, but Shvo and his partners extended it for another six-month term, according to BH3.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Anthropic chief says AI could surpass β€œalmost all humans at almost everything” shortly after 2027

On Tuesday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that AI models may surpass human capabilities "in almost everything" within two to three years, according to a Wall Street Journal interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Speaking at Journal House in Davos, Amodei said, "I don't know exactly when it'll come, I don't know if it'll be 2027. I think it's plausible it could be longer than that. I don't think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything. Better than almost all humans at almost everything. And then eventually better than all humans at everything, even robotics."

Amodei co-founded Anthropic in 2021 with his sister, Daniela Amodei, and five other former OpenAI employees. Not long after, Anthropic emerged as a strong technological competitor to OpenAI's AI products (such as GPT-4 and ChatGPT). Most recently, its Claude 3.5 Sonnet model has remained highly regarded among some AI users and highly ranked among AI benchmarks.

Read full article

Comments

Β© Chesnot via Getty Images

A financially independent real-estate investor shares his 'recession-proof' strategy and the renovation that improved his cash flow by hundreds of dollars a month

19 January 2025 at 04:15
kent he
Real estate investor Kent He and his family.

Courtesy of Kent He

  • Kent He increased rent by $550 a month by adding a bedroom to his affordable housing unit.
  • His 'recession-proof' investment strategy involves operating Airbnbs and affordable housing units.
  • Benefits to investing in affordable housing include predictable, reliable income.

When Kent He's Section 8 tenant moved out of his single-family home in Fairfield, Alabama in 2024, the investor saw an opportunity to improve his property.

He decided to add a room and convert the three-bedroom into a four-bedroom β€” and spent about $41,000 doing so, he said.

The investment has already started to pay off.

He told Business Insider that the three-bedroom was bringing in $700 a month in rent. Thanks mainly to the additional bedroom, the Birmingham Housing Authority determined that the property can now be rented for $1,257. BI confirmed these details by viewing the certification He received from the housing authority.

That's about a $550 increase in monthly rent β€” or, an extra $6,600 a year.

Just because his cash flow increases doesn't mean his tenant's payment does, he noted: "For housing choice vouchers, a tenant is responsible for paying 30-40% of their income toward the rent. If they lose their job or rents continue to go up, their portion on a percentage basis stays the same; the government will come in and fill the rest."

The full-time investor, who lives in San Diego and owns two Airbnb units in Scottsdale, said that he often thinks through, "What are your value-add strategies? How can you provide a good experience to your tenant while also generating some additional cash flow by being creative with the square footage?"

He's learned that "the housing choice vouchers typically pay based on the bedroom count. And, two bathrooms β€” houses with two toilets β€” rent out easier than homes with one toilet. We knew we had a good property and thought, let's take advantage of the space that we have and create a better product."

Owning an affordable housing unit is part of his greater "recession-proof" investment strategy.

A 'recession-proof strategy': Short-term rentals for cash flow + affordable housing units for stability

After graduating from Bentley University in 2011, He worked as a consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers for nearly four years. He left PwC to help a family member turn their restaurant business around and re-entered corporate America in 2017 when he got a job at a major insurance company.

Eager to exit the corporate world, he decided to try real-estate investing on the side. Specifically, he wanted to set up short-term vacation rentals, which, according to his research, seemed to be higher-risk but the most lucrative real-estate strategy.

He was right: After purchasing two properties in Scottsdale in 2021 and 2022 and turning them into bachelorette-themed Airbnbs, he started earning enough from his short-term rental units to cover his family's expenses and quit his day job.

kent he bach
Kent He owns two Airbnb properties in Scottsdale designed specifically for bachelorette trips.

Courtesy of Kent He

Despite his success on Airbnb β€” in 2023, his two units brought in more than $240,000 β€” he didn't want to rely on the short-term rental strategy, which has proven to be volatile. Early in the pandemic, when travel was halted and some state and local governments banned short-term rentals to stop the spread of COVID-19, Airbnb hosts saw their calendars wiped clean.

"For peace of mind, I want to know that there's always other cash flow coming in from another asset class," said He.

That's where the second part of his strategy comes into play: buying affordable housing units.

"It's a great diversification approach," said He. "You have short-term rentals with a higher risk and more active approach to managing. And then you have the long-term rental which might be a little bit passive, lower cash flow, but much more predictable and stable income coming from the government that's paying your rent every single month."

The benefits of providing affordable housing: Diversification, predictable income

There are a handful of misconceptions about affordable housing, said He, who has built a YouTube channel dedicated to the topic: "A lot of folks, when they think about affordable housing they associate it with the projects, with guns, drugs, and drama; when, in reality, it's really hardworking folks, like my parents, who just needed a stable roof over their heads."

His parents immigrated to the US from China "with about $1,000," he said, and raised him in an affordable housing unit.

kent he family
Kent He and his family reside in San Diego.

Courtesy of Kent He

In addition to providing families in need with a nice roof over their heads, buying affordable housing has unique benefits for the investor.

As a Section 8 landlord, you can collect rent reliably, said He: "Even if the Section 8 tenant loses their job, the government will come in and pay the rest of the rent. That is what I'm calling a recession-proof investment because the government will always pay their rent on time for your voucher holders."

Plus, "there's some kind of accountability on the tenant side because the tenant doesn't want to lose their voucher," said He, who explained that in some counties the waitlist for a housing choice voucher can be 12 to 15 years. "There are going to be exceptions β€” there are still going to be bad apples here and there β€” but for the most part, folks that desperately need housing for their families value the vouchers very much so, because it's essentially hitting a jackpot."

Another aspect of the program is a housing inspection every one to two years, he said: "The local housing authority will come and inspect the home just to make sure it's in good condition."

With a traditional rental, if you have a long-term tenant, "you might wait five, 10 years and you never know what's happening inside your home. It's a great accountability mechanism to make sure you are providing a great living experience for the tenant. But as a landlord, you're also understanding what's happening inside your home, so that if anything needs to be fixed, you're taking care of it right away instead of deferring that maintenance and potentially causing more issues for you down the road."

Read the original article on Business Insider

New set of bills would counter CCP's Belt and Road initiative: 'we can mute China's siren song'

17 January 2025 at 07:45

FIRST ON FOX: The Monroe Doctrine is back in full swing – both with President-elect Donald Trump’s push for a takeover of the Panama Canal and new legislation from Rep. Mark Green to encourage investment in Latin America.

The Homeland Security chairman and Tennessee Republican put forth a pair of bills on Friday – one to use tariffs to create a low-interest loan program for companies to relocate from China to Latin America.

Another would use tariffs collected on Chinese goods to offer a tax incentive to offset moving costs for U.S. companies to bring their operations back to U.S. soil.Β 

TheΒ Western Hemisphere Nearshoring Act would institute a program through the International Development Finance Corporation to buy down interest rates with tariff money.Β 

'SAFER, STRONGER, AND FREER': SECURING THE BORDER SET TO FEATURE LARGE IN NOEM'S OPENING REMARKS TO SENATE

Under the Bring American Companies Home Act, amounts paid to move inventory, equipment or supplies used in a trade or business from China to the U.S. would be allowed as a deduction on taxes. The program would be funded through a trust fund of tariffs collected.Β 

"Communist China's malign influence continues to spread throughout the Western Hemisphere. It's time for us to take a stand. By rebuilding infrastructure and manufacturing jobs in this region, we can mute China's siren song," Green told Fox News Digital.Β 

The U.S. has long invested heavily in Latin America and the Carribean, but China is South America’s biggest trading partner and benefactor. As part of its Belt and Road initiative, it is increasingly flexing its muscle with grants and loans across the continent. China in November unveiled a megaport in Peru.Β 

Lawmakers have begun to float ideas to "reshore" supply chains from China and reassert hegemony in the western hemisphere with trade partnerships throughout the Americas.Β 

CHINA ATTACKED US WITH HACKERS. WE NEED TO HIT BACK HARD

Vice President Kamala Harris, tapped to lead the border response, focused on the "root causes" of immigration by attempting to bring investment to Latin America to improve conditions for locals so they would not make the dangerous trek to the U.S. border.Β 

Trump has signaled that he will re-prioritize the western hemisphere, a priority dating back to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, through calls for the U.S. to take back the Panama Canal.Β 

Over the past few weeks, Trump has insisted that China is in control of the canal and that Panama is "ripping off" the U.S.Β 

"Look, the Panama Canal is vital to our country," Trump said. "It's being operated by China β€” China! β€” and we gave the Panama Canal toΒ Panama, we didn't give it to China. They've abused that gift."

China is the second-largest user of the canal after the U.S. and aΒ major investor in the country. Two of the canal’s ports of entry are owned byΒ a subsidiary of a Hong Kong-based company, CK Hutchison. Beijing also helped finance a new bridge over the waterway.

5 popular sneakers you should invest in and 2 that feel like a passing trend, according to sneakerheads

9 January 2025 at 08:35
shoe rack full of sneakers and slides
Many sneakerheads know if a pair of sneakers is valuable are not.

Muhammad Sidik Vasni/Shutterstock

  • Business Insider spoke to sneakerheads about which pairs to invest in versus styles you can skip.
  • Runners like Asics and New Balance are back and have taken advantage of collaborations.
  • Nike Dunks are too mass-produced and aren't worth the purchase.

Whether you're buying your second or 20th pair of sneakers, it's important to know what you're spending your money on.

Michael Portone, the founder of Chicago-based shoe business Endless Supply, says sneakers are like stocks. Just as the stock market has peaks and valleys, the sneaker industry uses the laws of supply and demand to determine a shoe's value. That also means designs, colorways, and brands are always coming in and out of style.

Business Insider spoke with three sneaker enthusiasts β€” also called "sneakerheads" β€” about which pairs they think are worth investing in and what styles they'd skip right now.

Here's what they said.

Asics is acing the sneaker industry

pair of asics sneakers displayed on to of the shoe box
You can't go wrong with a pair of Asics Gel-Kayano sneakers.

monicalo/Shutterstock

Portone, who has 14 years of experience in the sneaker industry, told BI that there's been a recent resurgence in running shoes, especially from Asics. Based on past and current trends, he sees the brand as a good investment.

If you want something unique that still has staying power, collaboration lines like GD x Asics are a good place to start.

"Collaboration is really key in today's day and age," Roberto Ansani, a manager at one of Portone's Endless Supply locations who's been in the sneakerhead community for 12 years, said.

However, if you're all about the classics, he said the brand's Gel-Kayano and Gel 1130 lines are rising in popularity β€” particularly because they have aesthetic similarities to Balenciaga's sneaker but for a far lower price.

New Balance is back in a big way

hand holiding up a new balance 9060 sneaker in front of the show box
New Balance's 9060s have gotten popular.

LUCKY4UU/Shutterstock

New Balance has been around since the early 20th century and is a staple in many sneakerheads' closets.

Although it's probably best known for its "dad shoes," the brand has successfully made a name for itself in the modern sneaker game largely thanks to collaborations, like its JJJJound line.

"We're just seeing the demand go up," Ansani told BI.

He named 9060 and 2002r as some of the most high-demand models in New Balance's arsenal.

Reebok's Club C is a flexible design

person wearing white reebok club c sneakers
You can dress a Reebok Cluc C up or down.

Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock

Kevin Woods, who founded the curated Chicago vintage shop The Pop Up with his wife in 2019, has been invested in sneakers since his adolescence in the 1980s.

If you're looking for a more affordable (under $100) sneaker that pairs well with items across your wardrobe, he recommends Reebok's Club C design.

"That's a shoe where I don't have to baby it," Woods told BI. "I can wear it and wear it and wear it, and then once they get messed up, I can get another pair of C's."

Saucony is keeping its fans happy

Saucony's runners aesthetic attracts a wide base of shoppers.

"Certain brands have really leaned into comfort and stability β€” things that shoes are meant to do anyway," Woods said of the classic brand.

The sneakerhead highlighted the Starcow X Saucony ProGrid Omni 9 as particularly valuable. The mustard-color sneaker has a retro vibe with all the modern comforts of a running shoe.

If you're looking for a similar style outside of the collab, try the original ProGrid Omni 9, which has the same silhouette in different colorways.

Supreme Air Force 1s remain in high demand

supreme air force one sneakers in black
Supreme has a collaboration with Nike Air Force 1.

Christophe Decaix/Shutterstock

It's hard to ignore Supreme when discussing trends worth investing in. The streetwear brand has become famous for its exclusive releases, minimalist aesthetic, and frequent collaborations, which attract a wide audience of customers.

Ansani said the Supreme Air Force 1 collab is consistently popular, even when the supply of it is high.

The sleek, black design makes them well-suited for a "going out" sneaker β€” if you're not looking to keep them in pristine condition for your at-home display.

On the other hand, America's Cup by Prada may have been a passing fad

Ansani told BI that some high-end brands are falling behind when it comes to updating their models.

"Certain designer brands are sticking to their heritage too much," he said. "It's them being stuck in their ways and unable to adapt with the market."

One of the best examples may be America's Cup by Prada. The sneaker was once well-loved, but it no longer holds that same value in today's market β€” especially with its original price hovering close to $1,000 a pair.

This follows the broader theme in the fashion world of high-end brands losing out to the "quiet luxury" aesthetic. Consumers just aren't looking for shoes that scream their price tags with flashy logos and easy-to-spot designs.

Nike Dunks are too mass-produced

someone wearing red, white, and black ike dunks sneakers
Nike Dunks are pretty much ubiquitous in the sneaker world.

phil_berry/Shutterstock

Low-top Nike Dunks brought a new aesthetic to the sneaker world in the 1980s. The brand gave its skateboarding clientele β€” who had been chopping off the top of the brand's Jordan sneakers β€” exactly what they wanted.

Although Portone said the shoe had been trendy for a few recent years, Nike responded by mass-producing it in almost every color.

Unfortunately, that high supply with a dwindling demand quickly tanked the sneaker.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Quant hedge funds — led by industry stalwarts like Renaissance Technologies — had a strong 2024

8 January 2025 at 09:33
wealth management and tech 1 2x1

Samantha Lee/Business Insider

  • 2024 was a good year for many of the industry's biggest quant names.
  • Players like Renaissance Technologies and Marshall Wace returned more than 20%.
  • Cliff Asness's AQR also had a big year, with its multistrategy Apex fund returning more than 15%.

Much like their peers in the multistrategy world, quant hedge funds had a strong 2024.

Algorithm-driven trading firms mostly delivered double-digit returns across different quant strategy types, including "quantamental" funds that blend systematic and human-run qualities into one and trend-following offerings. However, most of these funds failed to match the S&P 500's 23% gain.

In 2024, the biggest and oldest names in computer-run hedge funds led the way, such as Renaissance Technologies, the firm founded by the late billionaire Jim Simons.

The firm's two main funds available to investors β€” Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund and Renaissance Institutional Diversified Alpha β€” were up 22.7% and 15.6%, a person close to the manager told Business Insider. Of course, the manager's legendary Medallion fund, which now runs around $12 billion of internal capital, performed even better with a 30% return, Simons' biographer and Wall Street Journal reporter Gregory Zuckerman said in a Linkedin post.

In the UK, longtime strategies for $70.9 billion Marshall Wace and $13.1 billion Winton Group had good years. Marshall Wace's TOPS fund, an alpha-capture pioneer that systematically evaluates ideas and research from humans to create its portfolio, made 22.7%, according to a person close to the London-based firm. The all-quant multistrategy Winton Fund was up 10.3% last year, a person familiar with the firm told BI.

French quant firm Capital Fund Management, which is expanding its US presence, made 14.2% in its Stratus fund, which manages roughly $11.8 billion. The firm overall runs $16.7 billion across its half-dozen strategies, all of which were up double-digits in 2024, a person close to the firm said.

Cliff Asness's AQR meanwhile made 17.9% in its $2.5 billion trend-following Helix fund, a firm spokesperson told BI. The manager's $2.3 billion multistrategy fund, Apex, returned 15.1% on the year.

Graham Management was also up, returning 11.9% in its quantamental fund known as Proprietary Matrix while its trend-following option returned 6.7%, according to a person close to the Connecticut-based manager with $20 billion in assets.

But these managers have no time to rest. Artificial intelligence advancements have firms racing to build out systems and teams to better their processes. A new fund from OpenAI alum Leopold Aschenbrenner has the backing of Stripe's founders and former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman and is "focused on" a type of AI that would match human intelligence.

"The industry is experiencing an information arms race with respect to how much information can be gathered and how quickly it can be processed," a new release from Don Steinbrugge, an industry consultant who runs Agecroft Partners, reads.

"Information advantages are often short-lived, and many managers will continue investing in a host of new technologies."

More firms' performance figures will be added as they are learned.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Rate cuts, strong employment, and lower prices: 5 bullish predictions for 2025 from Goldman Sachs

31 December 2024 at 10:34
Green arrow and stock trader pointing up.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images; Bryan Erickson/Business Insider

  • There are a handful of bullish forces headed for markets and the economy next year.
  • Goldman Sachs said there are five factors providing a tailwind for the market next year.
  • Those include stronger growth, more rate cuts, and lower inflation.

Investors feeling nervous about markets and the economy have a number of reasons to cheer up, with several bullish factors set to keep the rally going next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Economists at the bank made several predictions for markets and the economy in 2025, some of which buck current expectations.

Some investors are starting to sour on next year's outlook, with over 34% of traders saying they were bearish on stocks over the next six months, according to the AAII's latest investor Sentiment Survey.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Expectations Index, a measure of how consumers feel about various parts of the economy, dropped to near-recessionary levels in December.

Yet, a handful of factors could keep the economy going strong or even stronger in 2025.

Here are five bullish calls the bank has made for the coming year.

1. The economy could grow more than expected

The US economy could expand even faster than investors are currently expecting. Goldman Sachs forecast GDP to grow 2.4% year-over-year by the fourth quarter of 2025, above the consensus estimate of 2% growth.

That increase will largely be fueled by strong consumer spending. Americans, bolstered by a strong job market and increased wealth from holding stocks, will likely ramp up their spending by 2.3% on a yearly basis in 2025, Goldman predicted, on par with consumer spending growth seen over the last two years.

2. Business investment will take off

Investment by businesses will probably far surpass expectations, Goldman said. The bank predicted that private investment in the economy would climb 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, above consensus estimates of around 3% growth.

Graph showing private investment increase expected in 2025
Private investment growth is expected to solidly beat expectations next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg

"While the factory-building boom subsidized by the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act will slow, spending on equipment for those new factories and for artificial intelligence, the reinstatement of tax incentives, rising confidence, and lower short-term borrowing rates for small businesses should fuel roughly 5% growth in business investment," economists said.

3. The job market will strengthen

The employment picture could look a lot stronger in 2025. Unemployment will likely fall back to around 4% by the end of 2025, Goldman predicted, slightly lower than the 4.2% jobless rate recorded in November.

"Job openings remain high and strong final demand growth should keep labor demand growing robustly. Meanwhile, the surge in immigrant labor supply that the labor market struggled to fully absorb this year has already slowed sharply and will fade further," the note added.

4. The Fed will cut rates more than expected

Goldman Sachs is expecting the Fed to cut rates three times next year, with decreases to the fed funds rate coming in March, June, and September. That reflects a slightly more aggressive pace of easing than what investors and Fed officials themselves are expecting, with the latest projections showing the central bank eyeing two rate cuts for 2025.

"Both our baseline and probability-weighted Fed forecasts are more dovish than market pricing, which reflects both our confidence that the underlying inflation trend will continue to decline and our view that the risks for interest rates from policy changes under the second Trump administration are more two-sided than widely assumed," the bank said.

Economists have said that some of Trump's proposed policies, like his plan to levy steep tariffs, could cause inflation to spike and interest rates to rise. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term as president without a significant price increase, but his tariff plan this time around is much broader, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

5. Inflation will keep cooling

Price growth, though, will likely continue to decline, Goldman predicted. The bank forecast core personal expenditures inflation β€”the Fed's preferred measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices β€” to fall to 2.1% by the end of next year, down from the 2.8% growth recorded in November.

The decline will be partly driven by "catch-up inflation" ending next year, the bank said, referring to how real inflation in the economy often lags behind the official statistics. Areas that typically lag, like car insurance and rent prices, have started to cool in recent months.

Graph showing real time rent prices vs. pce housing data
Official rent inflation figures have started to catch up with real-time rent data.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Department of Commerce

Wage growth, another factor that influences inflation, is also starting to cool, which should help lower price growth. Wages grew just 3.9% over the last year, down from the recorded 4.7% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs data.

Goldman remains solidly bullish on stocks going into the new year. Previously, the bank's strategists predicted the S&P 500 could rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025, implying 10% upside from current levels.

Read the original article on Business Insider

5 real-estate investors and agents share their 2025 market predictions and advice on how to capitalize

31 December 2024 at 01:00
A row of brick townhomes

ferrantraite/Getty Images

  • Real-estate investors shared their predictions for 2025 and top advice.
  • One investor says to think long-term and don't expect interest rates to drop.
  • Another says to spot opportunities by looking at 'days on market' on a listing.

Experienced real-estate investors don't expect mortgage rates to drop significantly in 2025, but they tend to agree that it could be an excellent year to invest in a property.

Arguably, any year is a good time to dip your toe in if you're financially prepared.

"Some of the best advice I can give somebody is just understand that you can never perfectly time anything," said Matt Laricy, a Chicago-based investor and agent who has done over $1 billion in sales and closed thousands of deals.

His advice applies to prospective homeowners, as well: "You have to live somewhere, so is it really worth waiting one or two years to maybe get it for 10% less, but in the meantime, you spend 20% more on rent? Are you really winning?

"Just know that the best time is when you're financially ready."

Here's what Laricy and other veteran investors and agents predict will happen in the real estate game in 2025.

Dana Bull says to think long-term and not wait for rates to drop

dana bull
Dana Bull is a real-estate agent, investor, and consultant.

Courtesy of Dana Bull

If you're looking to buy a home or invest in real estate in 2025, don't wait for rates to drop before making a move.

"I wouldn't base my whole plan around, 'Well, I keep hearing rates are supposed to drop,'" said Massachusetts-based investor and agent Dana Bull, noting that current rates are in line with the historical average. "This is kind of where rates sit. So, if they were to drop, that would be great, but I wouldn't be banking on it."

Instead, figure out how to make the numbers work in a high-rate environment. That'll mean getting creative.

"Look at some alternative leasing approaches. Usually, they're more lucrative if they're shorter," said Bull, who has always done long-term rentals but is experimenting with mid-term in 2025 to improve her cash flow. "One idea would be to start with something like an Airbnb, with the goal of transitioning after two or three years into something more passive, like a long-term rental."

Real estate is a long-term game, she added: "You have to look beyond year one β€” the numbers are always going to be tight year one, no matter what the market conditions are β€” so, what are your projections going to be by year five?

"And then, what can you do in the interim to maybe make this property work? That would be focusing on neighborhoods and communities where you can balance both of these plays: It's going to attract a short-term rental tenant but, down the road, you can pivot into a longer-term tenant."

Matt Laricy predicts the market will 'take off like a rocket ship'

matt laricy
Matt Laricy, the managing broker of Laricy, is a top real-estate agent in Chicago.

Courtesy of Matt Laricy

"I expect 2025 to be the best market since 2022. I think the market is going to take off like a rocket ship," said the top Chicago real-estate agent, adding that, "obviously, every market is extremely local."

In his market, rents are very high, and, "it's almost cheaper, when you factor out your down payment on a monthly basis, to buy than it is to rent," he explained. "So, you are getting a lot of people who are going to buy just as a result of that." Plus, employees should have more certainty around their company's return-to-office plan, which could promote settling down and buying: "A lot of people rented because they were uncertain of their future."

Laricy also predicts that prospective buyers will adjust their rate expectations: "I think people have now realized that 2 and 3% are never going to happen, and are like, 'At a certain point, I either have to continue to be a renter for the rest of my life, or I have to be a buyer.'"

His advice for navigating a competitive market is, first and foremost, understand the basics: where you want to buy, what type of property you want to buy, and a realistic budget.

"It sounds easy. But for buyers, it's really hard," he said.

Regarding your budget, Laricy said to assume a home will sell for higher than what it's listed at. Study your market to see how much homes typically go over the asking price and factor that in. If it's $50,000, for example, and your budget is $500,000, look at homes listed for $450,000.

If you know exactly what you want and what you can afford, you'll be able to move quickly, which is essential in a competitive market.

"Know that you have to do things on their time, not your time," said Laricy, referring to the seller. "When something comes on the market, you need to move, and you need to move fast."

Mike Zuber says it'll be a good market for investors and to focus on 'days on market'

mike zuber
Real estate investor Mike Zuber and his wife Olivia.

Courtesy of Mike Zuber

California-based investor Mike Zuber expects 2025 to be a "unique" opportunity for investors.

"I think there are some people that will just have to sell β€” life events, death, divorce, all of that," he said. "And unless the house is perfect, no owner is going to buy it. The general public is basically out of the housing market. So if you have a house that's a little dated, a little old, a little bit too close to busy streets, you're going to eventually have to sell to an investor β€” and we're going to write offers that make sense at a high cost of capital, call it 7, 8%."

His advice is to pay attention to the number of days a property has been on the market to land the best deals.

"Go on the general MLS, Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin, and just look for homes that have been on the market for 50 days, 60 days, 90 days, 100 days," he said. "We're seeing days on market explode, and that just tells you that that seller is eventually going to be motivated or they're going to just take it off the market. So, do they need to sell or do they want to sell?"

If they need to sell, you'll be in a better position to negotiate.

As for what number to look for exactly, start by understanding the average 'days on market' in your area. Then, look for listings where that number is double, said Zuber: "Anything that's two X the average days on market is a good sign to go fishing."

Nyasia Casey says to know the laws in your area and understand seasonality

nyasia casey
Real-estate agent and investor Nyasia Casey.

Courtesy of Nyasia Casey

Rules and regulations that may affect real-estate investors are constantly shifting. In New York City, where investor Nyasia Casey lives, a new law going into effect in June 2025 shifts the burden of broker fees from renters to landlords.

"Essentially, landlords have to pay broker fees now β€” not the tenants. So, if you're a landlord, you have to factor in that cost now," said Casey, who rents in NYC but invests in Baltimore. "A lot of landlord and tenant laws are changing in certain areas that you need to be mindful of because it will affect how much money you're putting in and how much money you have to set aside."

She also emphasized that seasonality matters, whether you're buying and holding or buying and flipping.

She said that as a general rule of thumb, "buy in the winter, sell in the spring."

Whether you're listing a rental or trying to sell a flip, you want to find a tenant or a buyer in the summer.

"Once you get past October, you're going to have a difficult time, and you may lose money, whether it be you have to lower your price for a flip, or you have to lower your rental price just to get someone in there so that you don't bleed money," she said. "So just be mindful of when you're putting that house on the market, when you're buying it, and when it's going to be finished."

Ludomir Wanot encourages investors to save up to make a move

ludomir wanot
Ludomir Wanot is a Seattle-based real estate investor and entrepreneur.

Courtest of Ludomir Wanot

"As of October, we're seeing about a 29% year-over-year increase in homes for sale, so what I'm seeing is the market is showing signs of balancing and the conditions are becoming more favorable for buyers compared to the last five years," said Seattle-based investor Ludomir Wanot, who built his wealth wholesaling and now runs an AI company that helps lenders communicate with their clients. "And so the best thing right now we could do is save our money for opportunities that arise."

He doesn't expect rates to drop significantly in 2025, "so learning and utilizing creative financing is going to be your go-to," he said, recommending strategies such as seller financing, subject-to agreements, and private lending could help investors lock in better terms and avoid excessive borrowing costs.

Wanot's top advice heading into the new year, however, is to actually implement what you learn about online. Taking action could be as small as joining a real-estate community and networking.

"People are buying programs, they're going to the events, they're watching people come up onstage and talk about how wealthy they got through a particular strategy. But very few people actually implement anything they're being taught," he said.

"The day we actually stop listening to and reading all these stories, podcasts, and YouTube videos and actually apply ourselves is the day we're finally going to start seeing progress in our lives."

Read the original article on Business Insider

A self-made millionaire who 'hates real estate' shares the investment strategy he used to get in without having to manage property

21 December 2024 at 03:52
brennan Schlagbaum
Brennan Schlagbaum quit his CPA job in 2021 to run his business, Budgetdog, full-time.

Courtesy of Brennan Schlagbaum

  • Brennan Schlagbaum has zero interest in managing properties but wants exposure to real estate.
  • His solution is to invest in real estate syndications, which are completely hands-off.
  • This is when a group of investors pool capital to purchase a single investment.

Brennan Schlagbaum recognizes the advantages of real estate β€” from the tax benefits to portfolio diversification β€” but he's not willing to buy and manage an investment property.

He says he has his hands full with simply maintaining a primary residence: "I hate real estate with a passion. If something breaks in my house, I call somebody."

To benefit from real estate without having to actually own and operate properties, he invests in real estate syndications.

"I think it's one of the best ways for somebody that hates real estate but understands the tax benefits of real estate to get in because you don't have to do anything," the self-made millionaire and founder of Budgetdog, who built his wealth primarily investing in low-cost index funds, told Business Insider.

How real-estate syndications work

In real-estate syndication deals, a group of investors pools together their capital to purchase a single property managed by the syndicator.

Once the investor contributes capital, their role in the deal becomes completely passive. The real-estate syndicator is responsible for finding the deal, executing the transaction, and, ultimately, delivering returns to the investors.

"You lose control from that aspect. You don't really have control over how that performs," said Schlagbaum, who said he invests in five multi-family syndications. But if you work with a syndicator with a good track record that you trust, "it's essentially an index fund."

He invests with a syndicator that specializes in multi-family properties.

"They go in, upgrade the units, increase rent prices in a really high-demand area that's underpriced, own and operate that building for a couple of years, and then typically sell it after a three- to five-year period, sometimes up to seven," he explained. "And you don't do anything as an investor; you're just an equity partner. So you literally send some capital their way and hope they do their job."

A good option for established investors looking for hands-off strategies

BI has spoken to a variety of established investors who, after building wealth by acquiring rental properties, are turning to syndication deals for a more passive experience.

"You hear that real-estate investing is passive, and that's certainly not been my experience," said self-made millionaire Tess Waresmith, who owns five units across three properties. "I still think it's a wonderful way to invest, but it's not passive like investing in the stock market is."

She invested in her first syndication in 2023 and likes that it opens the door to bigger investment opportunities.

"I check out the deal and make sure it's something that feels good to me, and then when I invest the money, I'm hands-off. I'm not involved in the day-to-day decision-making of the property," she said. "But as an investor, I get to benefit from investing in the larger unit properties."

Carl and Mindy Jensen, a financially independent couple who have started shifting toward passive-investing strategies, including real estate syndication, also appreciate the hands-off nature of these deals. But it's hard to know what your returns will look like, Carl told BI: "The people running these syndications will tell you they're expecting numbers, and it's infrequently accurate."

It's important to remember that the syndicator is "probably using their best, sunny-day scenarios." That said, "every syndication we've had has actually outperformed the original numbers."

To participate in this type of partnership, you typically have to be an accredited investor, meaning you either must have a net worth of over $1 million or an income of over $200,000 (individually) over the past two years. There's also typically a minimum investment requirement, depending on the syndicator.

But there are workarounds, said Schlagbaum, especially if you're part of a real-estate community or network.

Investors who are part of the community he's built, for example, don't necessarily have to be accredited to participate, since "the SEC deems pre-existing relationships allowable," he said. "They just get access to the deal because they know me."

Sometimes, "Getting around those hurdles is just knowing the right people."

Read the original article on Business Insider

My wife and I used our military benefits to buy a $1M property in San Diego. It kickstarted my real-estate business.

18 December 2024 at 02:05
a man in a black shirt smiles for a photo outside
Erwin Jacob Miciano.

Theressa Miciano

  • Erwin Jacob Miciano left the Navy in 2021 to focus on his real estate business full-time.
  • Miciano and his wife used VA loans to buy a triplex and start their business, Semi Homes.
  • Semi Homes helps homeowners avoid foreclosure and launched Miciano's real estate career.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Erwin Jacob Miciano, a 27-year-old real-estate investor and the owner of Semi Homes in South El Monte, California. It has been edited for length and clarity.

I'm a dedicated dad, a committed husband, a real-estate investor, and the co-owner of Semi Homes, a real-estate company specializing in direct-to-seller transactions and marketing strategies. I co-own the company with my wife, Theressa.

I don't have a college degree. I graduated from high school in 2015 and first worked at Wetzel's Pretzels. I decided to join the Navy to support my family abroad in the Philippines and my mom and brother in the US.

In March 2016, after three months of boot camp, I completed the basic training to become a photojournalist. Until September 2021, I served as a mass communication specialist, with most of my overseas years based in Japan, stationed on the USS Ronald Reagan.

I separated from the military in 2021 to pursue real estate full-time

My Navy job included writing press releases, aerial photography, videography, and printing. In later years, I was stationed at the Naval Hospital Balboa in San Diego, where we covered COVID-19, and I was deployed with USNS Mercy to San Pedro in Los Angeles during the pandemic.

I was presented with an "early out" program because of overmanning in my job, and it allowed me to complete my contract a couple of years early. I had already started my business, but leaving the military allowed me to pursue it full-time.

I also wanted to spend more time with my young family. My eldest was born in January 2020.

My wife and I met on the day I arrived on the USS Ronald Reagan in 2016

We became friends through the first-response/firefighting team, where she worked as an electrician. We also noticed each other at church services, and she invited me to her baptism ceremony, where she was baptized inside an open jet fuel tank.

Early in our relationship, we lived together in a small Japanese apartment. Then, we spent about a year doing long-distance, with me still deploying on the carrier and her based in San Diego.

After a year of dating, we got married, and soon after some vacation in the US, we discovered we were expecting our first child. During most of her pregnancy, Theressa lived alone until I got stationed in San Diego around her seventh month.

That same year, I became deeply interested in personal finance and real-estate investing, inspired by stories of blue-collar workers achieving financial freedom through real estate. I learned the most from the BiggerPockets podcasts.

We were motivated to become first-time homebuyers

We were eager to apply what we had learned and planned to use the VA loan entitlement from our military service. VA entitlement is how much lenders can lend to a veteran or active duty member without providing a down payment.

We aimed to buy a multifamily property β€” ideally a duplex, triplex, or fourplex β€” so we could live in one unit and rent the others to offset our mortgage. Today, this strategy is known as house hacking.

Being stationed in San Diego gave us a few key advantages

The housing allowance we received as military members was higher than in most US locations, boosting our household income to about $10,000-$12,000 monthly. This allowance was discontinued once we both left the military. Theressa left the Navy almost a year before I did at the end of 2020.

Second, the VA loan allowed us to buy a multifamily property with zero down payment.

Third, we included 75% of the gross rental income from the property in our loan application, increasing our approved loan amount. On paper, our monthly gross increased to $15,000-$17,000.

Finally, new legislation removed local VA loan limits for first-time users, giving us more purchasing power.

After months of searching, we found a triplex listed for $1.2 million

We offered $1 million and settled at $1.1 million. By March 2020, we had moved into a three-bedroom unit while renting out the other two for about $4,000 a month, reducing our housing costs to less than what one-bedroom rentals were going for at the time. This was the start of Semi Homes.

After living in the triplex for two years, we moved in with my mom and brother in September 2021 in the San Gabriel Valley. The triplex is now fully a rental property generating $1,500 to $2,000 monthly profit.

My day-to-day work involves meeting with homeowners who are looking for support in selling their properties

We now buy properties and resell them for a profit. We also help sellers in deep foreclosure and save them from it. My role is to get my team in front of our target audience and guide clients through the entire process, all the way to the closing table.

There are also late-night administrative hours and business-building, which I work on three to four nights a week. The biggest change from my Navy days is that I'm no longer away from my family for long periods β€” a small freedom I cherish.

I feel both fulfilled and successful

While Semi Homes started as a way to build wealth and achieve financial freedom for my family, it's grown into something more.

We stay in this tough business because we truly believe in the value we provide to the individuals we work with. I'm focused on building our online presence and spreading the word that foreclosing is not the only option.

I see myself in real estate for the rest of my life.

Want to share your story about getting on the property ladder? Email Lauryn Haas at [email protected].

Read the original article on Business Insider

Construction trade group leaders look forward to new leadership under Trump: 'Relief on the horizon'

26 November 2024 at 13:01

Leaders from two of the nation's top construction trade groups told Fox News Digital they are looking forward to the new Trump administration with hopes their industry will be burdened by fewer regulations and policies enacted under President Biden that they said stymied additional growth in their sector.

On Monday, the Biden administration touted the addition of 1.6 million new construction and manufacturing jobs. However, Ben Brubeck, vice president of regulatory affairs for the Associated Builders and Contractors, cautioned that beneath this seemingly big announcement, "the growth can be much better if we're in the right economic and policy environment."Β 

Brubeck said his association's members have broadly indicated disappointment at the opportunities available to them under various Biden administration programs, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IJA), the CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA).Β 

"We survey our members on a pretty regular basis, and the number of members who reported participation in the IJA- and CHIPS- and IRA- and ARPA-funded projects has been pretty β€” it's been low," Brubeck said. "It's been less than expected."

WHITE HOUSE INSISTS BIDEN, HARRIS HAVE β€˜ONE OF MOST SUCCESSFUL ADMINISTRATIONS IN HISTORY’ DESPITE 2024 LOSS

Brubeck pointed to the fact that it has taken a long time for the money from these programs to be disbursed due to burdensome regulations, such as permitting requirements. He also pointed to oppressive labor policies, such as project labor agreements and increased borrowing costs as other elements that have added to less growth than could have been seen otherwise under President Biden.Β 

Brian Turmail, the vice president of public affairs and workforce for the Associated General Contractors of America, also noted the failure of Biden's major construction investments due to regulations and review processes.Β 

BIDEN ADMIN AIMS TO PUSH TOWNS, CITIES TO ADOPT GREEN ENERGY BUILDING CODES: β€˜VERY SUSPICIOUS’

"Our analysis is [the Biden administration] kind of got in their own way affecting the market, because they couldn't help themselves but to put in so many kinds of social and environmental rules on top of their funding that they slowed down the progress they so desperately wanted to see," Turmail said. He also pointed out that the administration "put a lot of new strings" on semiconductor plant construction that has stymied growth.

Turmail and Brubeck said they have hopes growth in the construction sector will ramp up under the Trump administration as companies manage their way through federal requirements enacted under Biden and see others potentially rolled back.Β 

I HAD A JOB ON THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE UNTIL BIDEN FIRED ME TO SATISFY CLIMATE EXTREMISTS

"The irony is that, by the time President Trump comes back into office, we do anticipate a big bump up in infrastructure construction," Turmail said. "Because all those projects where they've announced funding over the last two to three years will finally clear their environmental hurdle and begin construction."

"Our federal contractors are completely on the sidelines right now for these large-scale projects, and this all started at the beginning of the year in January," Brubeck added. "So, they're really excited for the potential of regulatory relief on the horizon as a result of the Trump administration coming in."Β 

The White House did not provide Fox News Digital with an on-the-record comment in time for publication.

❌
❌