• Trump's return to power comes as Ukraine struggles to stop Russia's advance.
• Trump says he'll move quickly to end the war, but Russia may be disinclined to negotiate now.
• Here are four scenarios for how the war could play out.

With the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its fourth year, attention is turning to President-elect Donald Trump and how his return to power may affect the conflict.

Trump looms as a distressing question mark for Ukraine, which has leaned into personal diplomacy to make its case in the weeks since his election. As a candidate, Trump called the war "a loser" and vowed to end it in 24 hours without saying how he would do so.

The US has provided the bulk of international security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing more than $60 billion so far. Drastic cuts or zeroing of this could enable Russia to achieve the decisive breakthrough it has so far been denied.

As both Kyiv and Moscow scramble to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of any changes Trump's administration may bring, Business Insider has taken a look at four ways the war could play out.

A cease-fire deal and frozen lines

The possibility of a temporary halt to the fighting has received renewed attention with Trump's reelection.

Trump, who has pledged to bring the war to a swift end when he returns to office, took to Truth Social on December 8 to call for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he said, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war, suggested such a deal could be achieved if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."

John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told Business Insider that Ukraine was seemingly moving away from its "maximal position" of getting back all its occupied territory but that it would want "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western nations reluctant to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome was the war being "frozen" roughly where it is now, he continued, adding that a "settlement is just too ambitious at this stage."

Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by force before launching a broader invasion in 2022. Putin, furthermore, has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictional, and many observers worry a pause of a few years will allow Russia to train more troops and stockpile more weapons ahead of another offensive.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that any peace deal brokered by Trump would likely involve some form of territorial concession.

"It's hard to imagine that it would be stable," Cancian said. "It's easy to imagine another war in a couple of years."

Long-term war

Another possibility is that Russia refuses to compromise and the fighting continues. War experts with the Institute for the Study of War think tank, for example, have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are not likely to seriously pursue negotiations while that continues.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant levels of continued Western aid, which could be a hard sell for Kyiv. Both Trump and the vice president-elect, JD Vance, have been openly skeptical of US support for Ukraine under the Biden administration.

It would also put further strain on Ukraine's manpower as well as its economy, which is already facing "intensifying" headwinds, as the International Monetary Fund said in a September update.

While Russia, too, is facing its own economic issues — the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% in October in an effort to combat high inflation — some analysts have said Moscow could go for years before it has to confront its overspending.

"For Ukraine, the long war is nothing short of disastrous," James Nixey, the director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in February. "The country cannot recruit anything like the numbers Russia can press into service. It also places greater value on human life than its opponent, meaning it inevitably suffers more from a protracted war of attrition."

However, a long war is likely to strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at what may be an unsustainable pace, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing its troop losses.

Russian victory

Putin wanted a swift military victory when his forces launched the full-scale invasion.

Almost three years later, that goal has been well and truly quashed, but Moscow could still claim victory — which would likely mean occupying more of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyy in favor of a deferential head-of-state.

For Kyiv, a worst-case scenario would see its forces' frontlines collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support, Cancian said.

In such an instance, Ukraine would likely be forced into ceding large chunks of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnipro potentially coming under Russian control through either annexation or effective oversight, he added.

Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine in recent months, straining Ukrainian defenses and compounding Kyiv's much-reported manpower shortage.

While Russia itself continues to suffer high casualties, it has been able to draw on vastly superior numbers while also adding extra recruits from North Korea to support its offensives.

Moscow has also appeared intent on avoiding distractions and keeping its focus on events in Ukraine, putting up little support to help its ally Bashar Assad as his regime collapsed in Syria — despite Russia's important military bases in the country.

In addition, Kyiv is now facing serious uncertainty in the form of Trump's imminent return, with some fearing he could cut aid to the country.

In a recent interview with Time Magazine, the president-elect said he wanted to "reach an agreement" rather than abandon Ukraine, but he added that he strongly disagreed with Biden's decision in November to allow the use of US-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russia, which Kyiv had long coveted.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia," Trump said. "Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse."

Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat

Ukrainians had harbored hope of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets said.

And while Putin's grip on power seems strong, the conflict has exposed some of the largest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries and protests over mobilization.

Russia's government is "authoritarian and it has control over the media, but it's still sensitive to public opinion," Cancian said, adding that it had likely avoided another round of mobilization as it did not want to "stir up domestic opposition," despite needing the manpower.

Washington has also pointed to North Korea's involvement in the war as a sign of the Kremlin's "desperation" and "weakness."

But with Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to the fighting, Russia's continued gains in the east, and Kyiv facing dwindling resources and drooping morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems off the cards for now.

Seth Jones, the president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, previously told BI that as long as Putin is in charge, it would be highly improbable that Russia's forces would retreat entirely. A Russian defeat, however, may threaten Putin's hold on power.

• South Korea's parliament has voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, according to local media.
• It comes after Yoon's attempt to impose martial law in South Korea in early December.
• Yoon survived a first impeachment vote last week.

South Korea's National Assembly has voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his decision to impose a short-lived martial law on December 3, according to the country's Yonhap news agency.

South Korea's parliament reportedly passed the motion by 204 votes to 85, with three lawmakers abstaining and eight votes nullified.

Yoon's decision to implement martial law earlier this month led to widespread protests in Seoul and calls for his resignation.

He later apologized and survived a first impeachment vote last weekend, which members of his People Power Party boycotted.

This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

• Bashar Assad's government in Syria collapsed on Sunday, ending his 24 years in power.
• Rebel forces led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept through Syria, seizing Damascus.
• Here's what we know about HTS.

Bashar Assad's 24-year rule came to an end on Sunday as rebels swept into Damascus, the Syrian capital.

Shortly after insurgents declared the city "free," Russia's foreign ministry announced Assad had resigned his position and left the country. Russian state news later reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he was granted asylum.

The collapse of Assad's government came after a coalition of opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive, seizing control of major cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs in a matter of days.

Syrians around the world celebrated the end of Assad's rule, which was marked by brutal suppression. His violent crackdown on peaceful anti-government protests in 2011, part of the Arab Spring uprisings, sparked a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, straining neighboring countries like Turkey and Lebanon.

World leaders conveyed cautious optimism after news of Assad's ouster, but uncertainty remains around what kind of government and leader will replace him.

One major player will almost certainly be HTS, which is led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq alongside a branch of Al Qaeda.

Jolani later returned to Syria, his homeland, where he fought with Jabhat Al-Nusra — an Al Qaeda offshoot formed in 2012 — and other rebel groups against Assad's forces.

Jolani severed his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 and formed a new group, which eventually became HTS in 2017. Since then, Jolani has portrayed himself as a more moderate leader to gain international legitimacy. Both the United States and the United Nations still list HTS as a terrorist organization.

In one 2021 interview with PBS Frontline, Jolani called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."

"Through our 10-year journey in this revolution, we haven't posed any threat to Western or European society: no security threat, no economic threat, nothing. That's why this designation is politicized," he said.

In recent years, HTS has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.

In Idlib, Jolani established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government, which has acted as a showcase for what his leadership could bring to a wider area.

Speaking about the Salvation Government in the PBS interview, Jolani said that while the situation in Idlib was not ideal, there was "a self-asserting model that was capable of running the affairs of a whole country under an Islamic rule."

While some have remained doubtful that the group has fully cut its links with Al Qaeda, it has put forth a message of inclusiveness and unity in recent days, calling for a peaceful transition of power and reassuring religious and ethnic minorities in Syria.

"In the future Syria … diversity is our strength, not a weakness," the group said in a statement to the Kurdish minority in Aleppo.

Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told Sky News that while Jolani and his group had changed, they remained "pretty hardline."

"It's PR, but the fact they are engaging in this effort at all shows they are no longer as rigid as they once were," he said, referencing video footage showing Jolani forbidding fighters from entering homes and telling them to protect citizens. "Old-school Al Qaeda or the Islamic State would never have done that."

HTS is only one part of an ideologically diverse opposition, and it remains to be seen if the coalition can peacefully share power and extend unified control over the whole country.

"If not, intra-Syrian territorial fragmentation, and the potential emergence of regional warlords and fiefdoms, will quickly grow," Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, told Business Insider.

• Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has resigned and fled his country.
• Rebel forces said they seized control of the capital, Damascus.
• The collapse of Assad's government could have major global implications.

Syrians around the world celebrated as rebels, after more than a decadelong fight, finally toppled the country's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, on Sunday.

The Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday that Assad had resigned from his position as Syrian president and left the country. Russian state news reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he's been granted asylum.

Syrian anti-government forces announced early on Sunday morning that they had advanced into Damascus, Syria's capital.

In a post on social media, rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani said: "We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad."

"Today 8-12-2024 Syria is officially free," he added in a later post.

Hassan Akkad, who fled Syria in 2015 and is now based in the UK, posted to X, "Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free."

World leaders react

President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday that Assad had "fled his country" after losing Russia's support.

"Assad is gone," Trump wrote. "His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer."

In a press briefing on Sunday, President Joe Biden called the fall of Assad's government "a fundamental act of justice" and "a moment of opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country."

Biden said the US would support Syria's neighbors Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel "should any threat arise from Syria during this transition." Biden said the United States would also "maintain our mission against ISIS" inside the country, referring to the terrorist group operating in the region.

The US military conducted at least a dozen airstrikes inside Syria on Sunday, "targeting ISIS camps and ISIS operatives," Biden said.

The United States will also support Syria through the United Nations to create a new government through a process determined by the Syrian people, Biden said.

"The United States will do whatever we can to support them, including through humanitarian relief, to help restore Syria after more than a decade of war and generational brutality by the Assad family," Biden said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a Sunday statement, echoed the president's sentiment, saying the US "will support international efforts to hold the Assad regime and its backers accountable for atrocities and abuses perpetrated against the Syrian people, including the use of chemical weapons and the unjust detention of civilians such as Austin Tice."

The Syrian people, Blinken added, "finally have reason for hope."

Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called Assad's resignation "a positive and long-awaited development."

"It also shows the weakness of Assad's backers, Russia and Iran," Kallas said in a statement. "Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners in Syria and in the region."

Geir Pedersen, the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, said in a statement, "Today marks a watershed moment in Syria's history."

How rebels took control of Aleppo

In late November, the coalition of rebel groups launched a surprise offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which traces its origins to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. It has more recently promoted more moderate views.

The rebels quickly took control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities, Hama, and the strategic city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking Damascus to the coast.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, is a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq with Al Qaeda. He is believed to have cut ties with the terrorist organization in 2016 but is still designated a terrorist by the US, which has placed a $10 million bounty on his head.

Al-Jolani has sought to portray himself as a more moderate leader and promoted messages of religious and ethnic inclusivity as HTS pushed toward Damascus. Still, HTS has a reputation as a hardline Islamist faction.

"This victory, my brothers, is a victory for the entire Islamic nation," Al-Jolani said in a speech to his followers this weekend, per a translation by CNN. "This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region."

What Assad's ousting means for Russia and Iran

The collapse of Assad's government could have significant global implications, especially for Russia and Iran, which have been two of Assad's strongest allies.

Moscow operates two major military facilities in Syria — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — which have given its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a base to launch operations into Africa.

Losing access to these bases would scupper many of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans in the region, Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X: "Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse."

While Russia intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, its priorities have since shifted to the war in Ukraine, and it had appeared reluctant to divert any significant resources to help Assad this time around.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said there was no security threat to its military bases in Syria but that they were on high alert.

For Iran, Syria has been part of an important land corridor stretching from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, helping it support key regional proxies such as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.

But Tehran, too, has been distracted by its conflict with Israel, while Hezbollah has been left in disarray after Israel killed its longtime leader and wounded thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies.

In a separate post on TruthSocial on Saturday, Trump called on the United States to stay out of the situation in Syria, writing: "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

This story is being updated as the situation unfolds.

• The Russian embassy in Syria has advised Russian citizens to leave the country.
• It cited the "difficult military and political situation in Syria," a Russian ally.
• The warning came as anti-government rebels advanced on the strategic city of Homs.

The Russian embassy in Syria has advised its citizens to leave the country "in the light of the difficult military and political situation."

In a post on Telegram, the embassy said Russian nationals should leave on commercial flights through operating airports, adding that the embassy continues to operate "as usual."

The announcement comes amid Russian airstrikes targeting rebel forces who launched a surprise offensive against Syrian President Bashar Assad's government forces late last month.

The rebels, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have already taken control of the key cities of Aleppo and Hama, and are continuing their advance toward the city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking the capital Damascus — the seat of Assad's power — to the coast.

Should Homs fall, there would be no major cities between the rebels and Damascus.

For Russia, the mounting pressure on Assad's government has significant implications.

Moscow operates two major military bases in Syria, the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base.

The bases have been crucial for Russia's regional interests, providing its forces with important access to the Mediterranean Sea and a "launching pad to move into Africa," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.

Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X that losing Syria would be a big blow for Putin, scuppering many of his plans across the region and damaging his reputation with African governments.

"Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua said.

Moscow intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, but analysts say the ongoing war in Ukraine means it's unlikely to have the resources to provide significant support this time around.

Assad will instead likely have to rely on help from Syria's longtime ally Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah.

Iran also helped support Assad against rebel forces in 2015, and Iran-backed militiamen are reported to have begun entering Syria from Iraq to back the embattled president once again.

But this time, it may be difficult for Tehran to pull together sufficient forces, Aron Lund, a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told BI.

"Hezbollah, which was Tehran's primary instrument in Syria over the past decade, is now stuck in Lebanon, tending to its wounds and trying to get back on its feet after being mauled by Israel over the course of a two-month war," Lund said.

He added: "I'm not sure Iran can muster the numbers in time to turn this situation around."

• Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government.
• Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years.
• Here's why Syria is so important for both Moscow and Tehran.

Russia has been carrying out airstrikes on Syrian rebel fighters who are advancing through the country as part of an offensive that has seen them seize control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities.

The surprise offensive, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, marks the most significant escalation in the Syrian civil war in years — and the outcome has serious implications for both Russia and Iran.

Russia's gateway to the Mediterranean

Syria holds strategic importance for Moscow and Tehran, which have both supported Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled regime.

For Russia, which operates two major military bases in the country — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — Syria offers a key foothold in the region, giving its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a launching pad for operations in Africa.

Russia has sought to extend its influence across the Middle East and Africa in recent years as a counterweight to the US, forging closer ties with key Middle Eastern players like Iran and Saudi Arabia and reportedly providing African governments with security assistance through the Wagner mercenary group.

Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose a Russia-friendly government in Syria for fear of losing the airbase and warm water port crucial to maintaining its influence in the region.

"It's used that port and the base as a launching pad to move into Africa," Hall said. "At one point, there were at least 30 Russian warships in the Mediterranean, whereas just a few years prior, there were none."

Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, said losing Syria would be "a big deal for Russia."

"Most of its plans in the Sahel and Libya revolve around supporting Russia's access to the Mediterranean, without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua wrote on X.

Putin's support for Assad helped boost his popularity in Africa, Riboua continued, adding that losing Syria would "make Putin not just look weak, but look unreliable to many African countries that rely today on Wagner."

Iran's network of proxies

Syria also provides Iran with access to the Mediterranean via a land corridor that extends from Tehran through to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, connecting its proxies in the region.

"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Hall said. "It now has this unimpeded route from Tehran all the way to Lebanon."

Syria is particularly important for Iran's ability to support the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which for over a year has been embroiled in conflict with Israel. Israel has recently thrown this top Iranian ally into disarray, killing its longtime leader and wounding thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. A cease-fire agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah last week.

"Iran is deeply invested in Syria with dozens of military bases and other facilities because the country is critical to Tehran's support for Hezbollah," wrote Steven Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Syria provides Tehran with a place to manufacture weapons and a route to transport them, as well as a command post for Iranian commanders who work with Hezbollah, Cook said.

But Israeli strikes on the militant group have impacted Iran's corridor and put its position in the region under pressure.

Tehran may, therefore, see the Syrian conflict as a way to reimpose itself in the region, Riboua said in another post on X.

"Weakened in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran now views the conflict in Syria as an opportunity to reassert its influence by joining the Assad regime against its opposition," Riboua said. "Tehran likely sees this renewed involvement as a chance to restore its legitimacy and strengthen its control over its proxies."

Latest conflict is 'no surprise'

Russian ties with Syria trace back to the Cold War-era when Moscow supplied arms to the country.

The two countries grew closer under the leadership of Putin and Assad, as the former sought to expand and defend Russian interests in the Middle East.

In 2015, this resulted in Russia directly intervening in the country's civil war, which began in 2011, to prop up Assad.

Over the following years, Moscow steadily built up its military presence in Syria, and by 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that more than 63,000 Russian troops had "received combat experience" in the country.

But following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow's Syrian operations were put on the back burner, and it reportedly redeployed some troops, mercenaries, and military equipment from Syria to Ukraine.

Iran and Syria, meanwhile, have had strong relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Iranian troops are also reported to have fought alongside Syrian government forces in 2015.

But like Russia, Iran's priorities have shifted in recent months, with Tehran locked with Israel in a series of escalating long-range strikes.

For the US, that meant the latest offensive seemingly came as no great shock.

Speaking to NBC News, national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that Assad's three key backers, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, had all "been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere."

"So it's no surprise that you see actors in Syria, including the rebels, try to take advantage of that," he added.

For Russia and Iran, the fall of Aleppo will nevertheless come as a humiliating blow, Hall said.

It shows "how weak their ally is, even after 13 years of war," she added.

• UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in New York City on Wednesday, the police said.
• The NYPD said Thompson, 50, appeared to be killed in a targeted attack.
• Police on Monday arrested a "person of interest" identified as 26-year-old Luigi Mangione.

Police in Pennsylvania on Monday arrested a "person of interest" in connection to the fatal Midtown Manhattan shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

The 26-year-old man, identified as Luigi Mangione, was arrested in Altoona, Pennsylvania, and charged with local gun and forgery charges, New York Police Department officials said during a press conference.

Mangione was arraigned on Monday evening and charged on five counts, including two felonies: forgery, carrying a firearm without a license, tampering with records or identification, possessing instruments of crime, and false identification to law enforcement, according to a criminal complaint viewed by Business Insider. He was ordered held without bail.

Mangione was arrested after an employee at a McDonald's recognized him from the surveillance photos circulated by law enforcement and called the police. The complaint said Mangione was wearing a blue medical mask and looking at a laptop when Altoona police arrived.

Mangione had fake IDs, a US passport, and a gun and silencer "consistent with" the one thought to have been used by the gunman who killed Thompson, police said. The criminal complaint said the gun and silencer had been 3-D-printed.

NYPD officials said Mangione was also found with a three-page handwritten document that suggested "he has some ill will toward corporate America."

Mangione is expected to be extradited to New York to face additional charges, NYPD officials said.

The manhunt for Thompson's killer

The NYPD had released more than a half-dozen surveillance images of the man suspected to be the shooter in the December 4 attack in the hopes that tips from the public could help authorities track him down.

The latest photos of the man suspected of the shooting — which has been described by police as a targeted attack — included one showing him in the back of what appears to be a taxi, wearing a blue medical mask and a dark hood. Another image showed the man standing outside the vehicle's window wearing a mask, hood, and dark puffer jacket.

Moments after shooting Thompson dead in the heart of Manhattan Wednesday, police say the gunman fled the scene, first on foot and then on an electric bike, which he rode into Central Park. Police believe the shooter ultimately escaped New York City by bus.

Investigators believed the gunman caught a cab on Manhattan's Upper West Side and directed the driver to a bus station as he made his getaway following the shooting, Bloomberg reported.

Police officials told CNN they believed the man left New York City via the Port Authority's George Washington Bridge Bus Station in Washington Heights.

"We have video of him entering the Port Authority bus terminal. We don't have any video of him exiting, so we believe he may have gotten on a bus," NYPD Chief of Detectives Joseph Kenny said in a December 6 interview. "Those buses are interstate buses. That's why we believe he may have left New York City," Kenny said.

NYPD divers were seen over the weekend searching the waters in Central Park for any evidence in the shooting.

A law-enforcement source told CNN that investigators had found a backpack in Central Park that they believed belonged to the gunman. The backpack contained a Tommy Hilfiger jacket and Monopoly money, CNN reported, citing law-enforcement officials and sources.

It was not immediately clear if other items were found in the backpack.

Kenny said on December 6 that officials were investigating the possibility that the gunman may have used a veterinary gun, used on farms to euthanize large animals quietly, in the shooting, CNN reported.

A law-enforcement source previously told BI that the gun used by the shooter appeared to be equipped with a silencer, according to surveillance footage of the attack.

Most of the images that police have released of the man wanted in the shooting show him with a mask covering the bottom half of his face, except a set of two, which NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch called the "money shot," that showed the clearest images yet of the suspect unmasked.

"He's been traveling and walking around the streets of New York City largely in a mask, with his face covered. We had to go through lots of video evidence to get that one money shot with the mask down," Tisch told CNN in a December 6 interview.

Tisch said that police released the photos of the man not wearing a mask because they wanted a "wider audience to see the picture outside of New York City."

"We are right now processing a tremendous amount of evidence in this case," the NYPD commissioner told the news outlet, adding that authorities already have "lots of forensic evidence," including fingerprints and DNA evidence.

Police have called the killing of Thompson premeditated

Police have described Thompson's killing as "a brazen, targeted attack."

Thompson was set to speak at UnitedHealth Group's 8 a.m. investor conference on December 4 when a hooded gunman opened fire from behind, striking him at least once in the back and at least once in the right calf, the police said.

"Every indication is that this was a premeditated, pre-planned, targeted attack," Tisch told reporters at a press conference hours after the shooting.

"It appears the suspect was lying in wait for several minutes," Tisch added.

The NYPD offered a $10,000 reward for tips leading to the gunman's arrest, and the FBI said it was also offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the gunman's arrest and conviction.

Multiple reports said that authorities conducted forensic tests on a discarded cellphone, protein bar wrapper, and water bottle.

How the suspect arrived in New York is also becoming clearer.

Authorities believe he may have traveled to the city 10 days before the shooting on November 24 on a bus that originated in Atlanta and dropped him off at Manhattan's main bus depot, the Port Authority Bus Terminal. It was not yet clear where along the route he boarded the bus.

The Atlanta Police Department announced Friday that the NYPD contacted it and will provide assistance in the investigation as needed.

The unmasked images of the wanted man released by police were captured at a hostel on New York City's Upper West Side, a law enforcement official told CNN, when an employee asked the man to lower his face mask.

The Times, citing a senior law enforcement official, previously reported that the suspect in the shooting used a fake New Jersey ID to book a room at the hostel he was staying at in the days before the attack.

Retired NYPD homicide detective Salvatore Tudisco previously told BI that the photos showing the man's face were likely to speed up the manhunt.

Tudisco led the city's last big manhunt for a murdered CEO, Gokada founder Fahim Saleh, whose killer was captured in three days by traces on credit card, cellphone, and surveillance camera evidence.

"That's the best option — to send it across the country, and someone will know him," the ex-detective said of the latest images.

He added that a facial-recognition trace would be less of an option because the hostel surveillance images do not show the man's full face.

Investigators can still try to run the photo through state driver's license and arrest databases, Tudisco said. However, some states require a judge to issue a warrant before state driver's licenses can be used as evidence in an arrest and beyond.

Shooter was 'proficient in the use of firearms,' police said

Kenny said at the NYPD's press conference in the aftermath of the shooting that the gunman arrived on 6th Avenue about five minutes before Thompson. The shooter's weapon appeared to jam during the attack, he added.

"From watching the video, it does seem that he's proficient in the use of firearms, as he was able to clear the malfunctions pretty quickly," Kenny said.

Surveillance footage captured the incident, showing the gunman firing his weapon as Thompson, wearing a blue suit jacket, was walking several feet in front of him.

A law-enforcement source, who is not authorized to talk to the press, told Business Insider that the gun appeared to be equipped with a silencer. The source added that the gunman "definitely knew" where Thompson was going to be.

The police said officers found Thompson unconscious and unresponsive two minutes after the shooting. Emergency responders rushed him to Mount Sinai Hospital, where he was pronounced dead at 7:12 a.m.

Police have not identified a motive

The shooting occurred blocks from Midtown holiday tourism landmarks, including Radio City Music Hall and Rockefeller Center, whose Christmas tree lighting took place on December 4.

In the aftermath of the shooting, six evidence cups were visible on the taped-off section of the sidewalk where the attack occurred.

"That's covering the shell casings," an officer at the scene told BI, declining to give their name because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

UnitedHealth Group canceled its "investor day" conference shortly after reports of the shooting broke.

Investigators have not yet determined a motive for the killing.

Kenny said investigators were combing through Thompson's social media and interviewing employees and family members and would be talking to law enforcement in Minnesota, where Thompson lived and where UnitedHealth Group and UnitedHealthcare are based.

Thompson's wife, Paulette Thompson, previously told NBC News in an interview that her husband had been receiving threats.

"Basically, I don't know, a lack of coverage?" she said. "I don't know details. I just know that he said there were some people that had been threatening him."

The police department in his hometown of Maple Grove, Minnesota, told BI it hadn't been notified of any threats he might have received. Theresa Keehn, the Maple Grove police administrator, initially said Maple Grove had no record of calls for service to his house. Still, the department later said it had responded to a 2018 call from Paulette Thompson. An incident report said she had been walking to bed when she saw the front door deadbolt turn and grew afraid someone was inside the house. The police did not find anyone inside the home.

An unnamed senior law enforcement official told NBC News that shell cases found at the scene were inscribed with the words "deny," "defend," and "depose." BI has not independently confirmed the description of the evidence, and an NYPD spokesperson didn't return a request for comment.

Jay M. Feinman, an author and legal professor specializing in insurance law, torts, and contract law, wrote a similarly titled book "Delay Deny Defend: Why Insurance Companies Don't Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It."

The book is dubbed an exposé of insurance injustice and explains how people can be more careful when shopping for insurance policies and what to do when pursuing a disputed claim.

The NYPD said Thompson arrived in New York City on Monday and was staying at a hotel across the street from where he was shot.

Police in Maple Grove, Minnesota, told BI homes of Thompson and his wife in a suburb outside Minneapolis were targeted with fake bomb threats Wednesday evening, more than 13 hours after the shooting.

Thompson was remembered as a 'hardworking Midwest guy.'

Thompson spent 20 years at UnitedHealth Group and was CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the health-benefits unit, since April 2021.

While announcing his promotion, the company said Thompson would "drive continued growth across the global, employer, individual, specialty, and government benefits business while continuing the company's focus on ensuring access to high-quality, affordable healthcare."

Leaders in the healthcare industry shared their condolences in the hours after Thompson's death.

UnitedHealth's shares were broadly unchanged after the shooting. They've gained about 12% in the past 12 months, less than the 32% increase in the S&P 500, but outperforming competitors, including CVS Health, Humana, and Elevance Health. During its third-quarter results in October, it gave what UBS called a "more conservative than usual" outlook for fiscal 2025. Ahead of Wednesday's investor day, it gave more detailed guidance for next year, forecasting revenue of $450 billion to $455 billion and adjusted earnings of $29.50 to $30 a share. The company also suffered a ransomware attack that disrupted pharmacy deliveries earlier this year.

By the afternoon of the shooting, UnitedHealth Group had removed the names of its executives from its website, an archived version of its site shows. Some executives also appeared to have deleted their LinkedIn profiles, though it's unclear when.

Thompson had previously served as CEO of the group's government programs, running its programs for Medicare and Medicaid recipients.

Thompson's former brother-in-law, Bassel El-Kasaby, told Business Insider that Thompson was "a good guy, very successful and very humble — just a decent, hardworking Midwest guy."

"Whoever did this is a coward and a loser," El-Kasaby said.

Correction: December 4, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated Thompson's work history at United Health. He worked at the company for 20 years but was not an executive there for 20 years.

Update December 9, 2024: This story was updated with details on the arrest of a "person of interest" in the shooting.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has agreed to appear on Lex Fridman's podcast.
• Fridman is a computer scientist and academic who has attracted high-profile guests, including Trump.
• Elon Musk touted X's role in arranging the deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed on X to record an episode of Lex Fridman's podcast in Ukraine, much to Elon Musk's delight.

Fridman, who hosts the popular "Lex Fridman Podcast," said on X earlier this week that he would "love to do a 3 hour podcast" with Zelenskyy, adding that he would even travel to Kyiv to do it.

Zelenskyy responded on Saturday, writing: "Agreed. See you in Ukraine."

One X user was quick to point out the role the platform played in arranging the deal, saying: "The power of X on full display," to which Musk replied, "True."

"Where else can you just make a request and a leader of a country replies to you directly?" the user added.

Musk has long touted his social media platform as a means of bypassing legacy media outlets and allowing world and company leaders to "speak directly to the people."

President Joe Biden used X to announce his withdrawal from the US presidential race in July, while President-elect Donald Trump has used the site — along with his own platform, Truth Social — to announce his cabinet picks ahead of his inauguration.

Zelenskyy himself is a big social media user, sharing updates on the Russia-Ukraine war and details of meetings with other world leaders on X and Telegram.

Over the last few years, Fridman has gone from a little-known academic researcher to a social media celebrity, winning audiences with some of the world's leading figures, including Trump, Musk, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.

His offer to Zelenskyy came after fellow podcaster Joe Rogan, who recorded a three-hour episode with Trump ahead of the US election, said the Ukrainian president had also offered to appear on his show.

"Zelenskyy tried to come on," Rogan said, adding somewhat skeptically: "They tried to get Zelenskyy on, I was like, 'What are you talking about?'"

Rogan recently criticized Zelenskyy and Biden over the latter's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range weapons in Russia, saying they were "about to start World War III."

In an interview with Sky News published on Friday, Zelenskyy suggested that the "hot phase" of the Russia-Ukraine war could end if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"That's what we need to do fast. And then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically," he said, stressing that NATO membership would need to be offered to Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

Zelenskyy has previously rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war.

• Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris is set to reopen on December 7.
• It's been more than five years since a fire devastated parts of the historic building.
• Take a look at new images of the restored cathedral below.

Notre Dame Cathedral, one of Paris' most iconic buildings, is set to reopen its doors on December 7, more than five years on from the devastating fire that ravaged its roof and toppled its spire.

Ahead of the reopening service, which will be presided over by the Archbishop of Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron took a televised walking tour of the cathedral, offering glimpses of the restoration. In a post on X, Macron shared a photo, writing alongside it: "Achieving the impossible together. That's France."

Business Insider has compiled some images of the restored building below.

A fire broke out at Notre Dame Cathedral on April 15, 2019.

The blaze destroyed much of the building's roof and brought down its spire. Fortunately, the cathedral's bell towers and main structure survived.

The subsequent restoration project is estimated to have cost more than $700 million.

France's President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte, visited ahead of the official reopening.

Macron gave a speech to people who worked on the rebuild.

A reopening service is set to be held on December 7.

A Mass is then planned for December 8.

President-elect Donald Trump is set to attend the reopening ceremony on Saturday.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on debt forgiveness for certain recruits on Saturday.
• It allows for up to $96,000 in debt forgiveness for those who sign a minimum one-year contract to fight in Ukraine.
• It comes amid soaring Russian combat losses.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing debt forgiveness for certain troops who sign up to fight in Ukraine.

Putin on Saturday signed off on legislation that, from December 1, allows recruits who sign a minimum one-year contract to fight in the war forgiveness of up to 10 million rubles of debt arrears (around $96,000), Russia's Interfax news agency reported.

The legislation applies where debt collection proceedings were opened before December 1, 2024, the report says.

Russia's State Duma approved the bill earlier this week.

The new law, which also extends to the spouses of recruits, comes amid mounting Russian combat losses in Ukraine.

Responding to the news on X, Carl Bildt, cochair of the European Council on Foreign Relations Council and a former prime minister of Sweden, said that the move showed Russia's attempts to replenish its losses were evidently becoming "more and more difficult."

"In addition to huge lump sum of money offered there is now also debt write off not only for those enrolling but also for their families. It tells," he wrote.

As Bildt alluded to, it would not be the first time Russia has attempted to use financial incentives to increase its troop numbers.

In July, Russia began offering bonuses of $22,000 to military recruits in Moscow.

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Tony Radakin, said earlier this month that Russia had suffered a daily average of more than 1,500 killed or injured troops in October, its worth month of the conflict so far.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in late October that Russian forces had suffered more than 600,000 wounded or killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In a post on X on Saturday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense shared figures from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that put Russian combat losses since the start of the war at more than 729,000.

Russian forces were somewhat bolstered by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops in October.

The latest legislation follows President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with US-provided long-range missiles.

The US's major policy shift comes as Biden scrambles to provide Ukraine with increased support ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in January.

Ukraine also reportedly fired British-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time this week.