Ukraine could lose its most powerful US weapons. What can Europe offer instead?
Anthony Sweeney/US Army
- Future US aid deliveries to Ukraine are under threat.
- Some of Ukraine's key weaponry has come from the US.
- Europe has vowed to step up and needs to find weaponry to replace what the US halts.
Many of the most powerful and important weapons Ukraine has received since the start of the war come from the US, or are US-made β like Javelin anti-tank missiles, F-16 fighter jets, and Patriot interceptor missiles.
However, Trump's recent announcements have made Ukraine's future access to these critical weapons anything but clear.
Europe can provide a lot, and many analysts say that what matters most is the quantity and total picture of Ukraine's capabilities.
"It's the total amount of military equipment flow that is important," Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI.
Even so, Europe's arsenals are stretched, and in many cases lack weaponry that can directly replace the US-made weapons that have helped Ukraine the most.
Recent estimates suggest only 20% of total military hardware supplied to Ukrainian forces is now from the US β 55% is Ukrainian-produced and 25% is from Europe and the rest of the world, Malcolm Chalmers, RUSI's Deputy Director-General, said. But he called that 20% "the most lethal and important."
"Ukraine will not collapse β they already experienced an aid cutoff last year, but the effect will be cumulative," he added.
Ukraine is also set to receive more arms this year directly from US manufacturers that were approved during the Biden administration, and it's unclear if President Donald Trump's administration will attempt to block them.
Here's the key US weaponry that Ukraine is using and what Europe has to offer in its place:
Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
The 2022 arrival of US-made HIMARS rocket launchers, made by Lockheed Martin, was celebrated as a huge moment for Ukraine, as one of the first major pieces of Western weaponry that Ukraine was trusted with.
The system's GPS-guided rockets, with a range of 50 miles, have been used by Ukraine to hit behind Russian lines, destroy columns of Russian troops and also ammunition depots. The US has given Ukraine at least 40 of them.
Justin Bronk, a leading airpower expert at RUSI, told BI that HIMARS were "widely effective" when they first arrived and were "absolutely crucial" to Ukraine's fightback, as they targeted command centers and ammo depots, constraining the huge logistics Russia's frontline forces require.
HIMARS has become less effective over time as Russia's electronic warfare abilities have grown, and there are global shortages of its ammunition type. Still, Bronk said they were "still an important part of the Ukrainian's capabilities" and "Europe doesn't have anything to replace it with."
There is, however, a new European alternative being developed.
EuroPULS is a collaboration between French-German defense company KNDS and Israeli company Elbit Systems, and some European governments have already placed orders. But few have been delivered, and some of the weapon's specifications are unclear.
Elbit Systems said it could use the GMLRS rockets that are launched by HIMARS, but that suggestion was shut down by Lockheed Martin.
Other European rocket launchers are also an option. Germany's MARS II is already present in Ukraine, but it is less mobile than HIMARS, making it slower to deploy and an easier target.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general, told BI that "there's not a lot out there that would immediately step into the gap" if HIMARS were no longer available.
Sean Gallup/Getty Images
HIMARS can fire a six-pack of GLMRS rockets or one ATACMS ballistic missile β one of the foremost weapons in Ukraine's hands.
ATACMS, a tactical missile made by Lockheed Martin with a nearly 190-mile range, allowed Ukraine toΒ finally make the fight more evenΒ after the US in 2024Β granted permission for them to be used against targets on Russian soil.
The US-made MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system is another of Ukraine's top weapons. The Patriot, made by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, has helped to protect Ukrainian cities and shoot down Russian planes, and its performance in Ukraine has boosted the weapon's reputation and given the US critical information that will increase the Patriot's accuracy.
If both weapons are no longer available, Europe can't directly replace them.
"Europe has no direct equivalent to Patriot," said RUSI's Bronk, adding that the closest equivalent is the SAMP/T, a French-made air defense system that is also in Ukraine.
But the "crucial" thing the Patriot offers, Bronk said, is "its ability to shoot down ballistic missiles."
The SAMP/T has "a degree of ballistic missile capability, but it's not as capable as Patriot," and there are not as many, Bronk added.
Many of Ukraine's allies, notably in Europe, have Patriots, but whether or not those allies can give them will likely depend on US permission. Ukraine is working on its own air defense system to rival the Patriot, but it's far from operational.
Ukraine does have other long-range strike missiles, like the Storm Shadow/SCALP from the UK and France, that it uses to hit targets well beyond the battlefield and even into Russia. But ATACMS travel faster than those and other cruise missiles, and its cluster warhead can be more effective at destroying targets, Bronk said.
47th Mechanized Brigade via Telegram
The US has provided Ukraine with dozens of US-made Abrams main battle tanks and hundreds of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
Better than the Soviet-era tanks Kyiv fielded at the start of the war, the M1 Abrams has not proven as effective in Ukraine's positional fighting as once thought, which, like all armored vehicles, has shown high vulnerability to mines, anti-tank missiles, and drones, resulting in substantial losses.
The Bradley fighting vehicle, meanwhile, has been praised by Ukrainian soldiers for its mobility, firepower, and ability to maneuver in complex terrain, especially against Russian armored vehicles. It faces the same battlefield challenges as the Abrams but can better sustain losses because Ukraine has received over 300 from the US.
The most commonly cited European tank to potentially replace the Abrams and Bradley is Germany's Leopard 2.
Some military analysts consider the German-made tank to be on par with the M1 Abrams, as both have similar armor protection and a 120mm smoothbore main gun.
The UK, meanwhile, has sent Ukraine the Challenger 1 main battle tank, which Ukrainian soldiers have praised for its armor, accuracy, and firepower.
The lack of tank-on-tank combat has limited Ukraine's need for larger tank forces.
AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky
The long-awaited arrival of US-made F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine last year gave Ukraine its first Western jet, and its most powerful asset in the air. F-16s have protected Ukrainian cities and helped keep Russia's air force at bay.
The General Dynamics-built jet was largely considered one of the best fits for Ukraine, primarily because it is so prolific: As the world's most common fixed-wing aircraft in military service, finding spares and more jets, as well as training for Ukraine's pilots, is relatively easy.
In fact, all of the F-16s in Ukraine have come from European nations, and not the US, but those countries had to wait months for the US to agree to let them send the planes.
The F-16 was never expected to be a game changer in Ukraine and the small number given means it can't field a large, powerful air force.
The only other Western aircraft Ukraine currently has is the French-made Mirage, which is not too different from the F-16 but has more limited weapons available and is far less plentiful.
Sweden's Gripen jet is seen by many as a better fit for Ukraine, but none have been committed to date. There are also far fewer of the Saab jets in the world to give.
Changing to a new jet type would also put more stress, delays, and costs on Ukraine: the infrastructure and training was set up with F-16s in mind.
Other Ukrainian allies have F-16s and parts they could keep on giving, but that would likely require US permission.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Ukrainian troops have used the US-made Javelin missiles β shoulder-fired, anti-tank missiles with a 1.5-mile range β to devastating effect throughout the war, especially in the first two years.
Three military experts told BI in mid-2023 that it was one of the five deadliest weapons Ukraine was using at the time to fight back against Russia.
Ukraine has also made use of the Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon (NLAW) designed by Britain and Sweden. While the NLAW is a lighter anti-tank missile, it has just a third of the range of the Javelin, meaning it is better suited to urban combat than open terrain and longer-distance anti-tank operations.
Another option is the French Akeron missile, which has a longer range of up to 5 miles when launched from the ground. During a government hearing in November 2023, Lionel Royer-Perreaut, a member of the French National Assembly, said France had sent an unspecified number to Ukraine since the start of the war.
US Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Sean Potter
The US sent Ukraine an unspecified number of AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOW) in September 2024 for use by its F-16 fighter jets to improve the country's long-range strike capabilities.
The air-launched glide bomb has a range of more than 70 miles, smaller than the 155-mile range provided by both Britain's Storm Shadow and France's SCALP-EG cruise missiles.
The European missiles are the closest comparable weapons to JSOW, as they are also designed to be launched from aircraft at a standoff distance. The European missiles' longer range also allows for strikes from further away.
Ukraine has other glide bombs in its arsenal, including the French AASM Hammer, formally known as the Armement Air-Sol Modulaire, which has a range of about 43 miles β shorter than the JSOW.
REUTERS/Alina Smutko
As of March 2024, the UK, Norway, France, and Germany had sent around 34 US-made M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to Ukraine. The US, under President Joe Biden's administration, was initially reluctant to send them to Ukraine due to fears of escalation.
The MLRS can fire 12 to 18 guided rockets in under a minute and be set up, fired, and moved to another position quickly before enemy artillery can pinpoint its location.
European armies have already sent multiple European-made launch rocket systems to Ukraine, including France's Lance-Roquette Unitaire (LRU) and Germany's MARS2.
The LRU can carry 12 rockets and fire at a range of about 43 miles, while Germany's MARS2 can fire 12 rockets per minute and has a combat range of about 43 miles, making them both good alternatives to the US M270 MLRS.
