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NATO turned to elite divers to test sabotage protections for critical undersea cables increasingly at risk

Special operators halfway submerged in water, with one holding a weapon up.
Special operators during the Bold Machina 2024 test.

Screenshot/NATO

  • NATO pit elite divers against new sensors to protect undersea cables from sabotage.
  • Foreign adversaries have increasingly targeted undersea cables and underwater infrastructure.
  • The training marks another shift in how NATO countries are preparing for future warfare.

NATO sent special operations divers to test new systems designed to help shield critical underwater infrastructure from damage and sabotage, growing problems.

Underwater cables and pipelines providing internet connectivity and energy have been damaged in a string of alarming incidents in recent years, with accusations of sabotage being thrown around about several just in the past couple of months.

These incidents highlight the vulnerability of these lines, but the NATO alliance is looking for answers.

Last fall, elite special operations divers from within the NATO alliance practiced bypassing underwater electronic detection sensors as part of an effort to boost protection for critical underwater infrastructure. NATO shared footage this week of the November training event — Exercise Bold Machina 2024 in La Spezia, Italy — as well as commentary from leadership.

The 13-nation event was the first of its kind, said US Navy Capt. Kurt Muhler, the maritime development director at the NATO Special Operations Headquarters, and was designed to test new sensors that could be used to defend against underwater sabotage attempts. This exercise, which Defense News first reported on, also tested allied special operations divers and their abilities to operate in increasingly transparent battlespaces.

Divers on offensive operations may not always be able to rely on dark, opaque waters to conceal their movements, Muhler, who has held SEAL team leadership positions, said, citing increased advancements in underwater detection system technologies.

A special operator right after putting on his dive gear riding in a boat.
Special operator after putting on dive gear.

Screenshot/NATO

"It's not knowing if somebody knows, or if you're being detected," Muhler told Defense News last fall. "It is understanding that there is a system that has the capability to detect you, but that you know nothing about it and don't know exactly what the capability is."

Undersea cables, pipelines, and other critical underwater infrastructure are at risk

The joint exercise in Italy came as damage to critical underwater infrastructure has become increasingly worrisome to Western officials who are scrambling to deter more damage to cables from vessels often quietly linked to Russian and Chinese governments.

Several underwater cables have been damaged in the past two months, including one telecommunications line linking Finland and Germany and another connecting Finland and Estonia.

Finnish officials said that they found a 60-mile seabed trail suggesting a tanker linked to Russia might be responsible for cutting cables. And around the same time, cables linking Germany and Finland and Sweden and Estonia were damaged with a Chinese vessel detected nearby when the damage occurred.

Such damage has spurred British defense officials to create a new joint operation with 10 European countries throughout the Baltic Sea area, using artificial intelligence to monitor potential threats from ships.

Special operations divers in the water, the mountains of Italy behind them.
Special operations divers.

Screenshot/NATO

Undersea cables are critical components of international telecommunication infrastructure and the global economy — around 745,000 miles of cables span global seabeds and help transmit 95% of international data, including around $10 trillion in financial transactions daily.

NATO officials highlighted growing threats to cables from Russia last year, noting surveillance activity from Russian units specializing in undersea sabotage. But the barrier to entry for sabotage isn't particularly high. Russia has submarine units known to specialize in underwater sabotage, but cables have also been damaged by commercial vessels simply dragging their anchors along the sea floor.

And the concerns about the risk of underwater cable and infrastructure damage are not limited to European waters. Damage just last week to cables off the coast of Taiwan left that island's officials suspecting intentional damage from China.

"The underwater domain is hard both to protect and hard to attack," said Alberto Tremori, a NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation scientist who helped oversee the November NATO exercise. "It's not easy to protect because it's a complex environment, it's a vast environment."

Read the original article on Business Insider

See the US military's special C-130 Hercules water bombers that are joining the LA wildfire fight

A Modular Airborne Fire Fighting Systems (MAFFS) equipped C-130 aircraft drops retardant on wildfires in Healdsburg, California.
A Modular Airborne Fire Fighting Systems (MAFFS) equipped C-130 aircraft drops fire retardant on wildfires in Healdsburg, California.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

  • The Pentagon deployed modified C-130 aircraft to aid in the fight against the Los Angeles wildfires.
  • The wildfires spread rapidly due to strong winds and dry conditions, scorching over 30,000 acres.
  • The C-130s can waterbomb wildfires with nearly 14 tons of fire retardant in less than five seconds.

The Department of Defense deployed modified C-130 aircraft and Navy helicopters to support efforts to contain the destructive wildfires burning in Los Angeles.

A wildfire started in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Tuesday and began to spread rapidly as strong offshore winds fanned the flames, setting over 30,000 acres ablaze and ruining neighborhoods in scenes reminiscent of war zones.

The C-130s are fitted with a firefighting unit that can drop thousands of gallons of water or fire retardant to suppress the blaze.

Most destructive wildfires on record
A pilot looks out at wildfires below from the cockpit of an MAFFS-equipped C-130.
A pilot looks out at wildfires below from the cockpit of an MAFFS-equipped C-130.

US Air Force photo/Lt. Col. Frank Wilde

At least 10 people have died and 10,000 properties have been damaged in the fires, and officials expect figures to grow as firefighters and first responders struggle to contain the flames.

The Santa Ana winds annually threaten to stoke the flames during California's wildfire season, but extreme drought combined with the powerful offshore winds catalyzed the record-breaking wildfires that continue to burn through Southern California.

Since California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in Los Angeles County, tens of thousands of residents have been impacted by evacuation orders.

Containing the blaze
A stream of fire retardant descends from an Air National Guard C-130 above a line of trees.
A stream of fire retardant descends from an Air National Guard C-130 above a line of trees.

Senior Master Sgt. Paula Macomber

More than 600 personnel, 10 rotary-wing aircraft, and two C-130 Hercules aircraft from the California National Guard were deployed to battle the blaze.

The Biden administration ordered the Pentagon to send eight MAFFS-equipped C-130s from Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado to support firefighting efforts in Los Angeles. Some were expected to start fire-suppression flights on Friday.

Hazardous weather conditions prevented the DoD from getting the planes in the air earlier and from sending additional assets to respond to the massive fires.

"We can surge assets, and the president has directed this department to bolster whatever California needs, but we have to work with California," Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said during a press conference Wednesday, "and right now, we can't even get assets up in the air because the fires are so bad and the winds are so bad."

"Until we can get more assets in the air, there's only so much we can provide," she continued. "So we're going to be standing by to support in every single way that we can."

In the meantime, the Defense Department is also sending 10 Navy helicopters with water delivery buckets for immediate aerial suppression, in addition to two firefighting teams and four military police groups on the ground.

From cargo plane to firefighting aircraft
An Air National Guard C-130 flys amid plums of smoke after dropping fire retardant on wildfires below.
An Air National Guard C-130 flies amid plums of smoke after dropping fire retardant on wildfires below.

Senior Master Sgt. Paula Macomber

The Lockheed C-130 Hercules is a versatile workhorse plane with a spacious cargo hold that can be equipped for a wide range of operations.

When deployed as a firefighting aircraft, the C-130 can be equipped with a Modular Airborne Fire Fighting System (MAFFS) unit to support other air tankers in aerial suppression.

The MAFFS units can be filled with water or a fire retardant called "slurry," which is mostly made of water with the addition of ammonium sulfate, a jelling agent, and red coloring to make it visible to pilots when dropped.

The US military has eight MAFFs units ready for use nationwide, operated by National Guardsmen stationed in California, Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado.

The MAFFS Program was launched by Congress in the 1970s after a massive wildfire in Long Beach, California, overwhelmed the responding civilian air tanker fleet and destroyed hundreds of homes.

Waterbombing process
An aircraft loadmaster directs an MAFFS loading trailer into the hold of a C-130 Hercules.
An aircraft loadmaster directs an MAFFS loading trailer into the hold of a C-130 Hercules.

US Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Frank Casciotta

The unit can fit inside the cargo hold with no structural modification to allow for quick loading on short notice, taking about four hours or less for a crew of five to set up, fill, and load the 11,000-pound unit.

The C-130 drops its contents through a discharge tube installed on the rear left side of the C-130 and through the open cargo bay door, releasing 3,000 gallons in less than five seconds and covering an area over 1,300 feet long and 100 feet wide.

Because the fire retardant slurry is released in a mist, it doesn't cause damage to buildings and structures while acting as a fertilizer, but it can be harmful to the environment and local wildlife if used in excess.

The unit can be refilled and airborne again in under 20 minutes.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Record-breaking Ukrainian F-16 pilot showed great skill gunning down Russian missiles 'without fragging himself,' veteran US fighter pilot says

A Ukrainian pilot abroad a F-16 fighter jet
A photo shared by Ukraine's Air Force Command when said that one of its F-16 pilots took out six Russian cruise missiles at once.

Facebook/@Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces

  • Ukraine said one of its pilots downed a record-breaking six cruise missiles in a single mission.
  • The pilot said he downed two of them with his gun, something experts said took great skill and risk.
  • Getting close enough to shoot down missiles requires skill to avoid getting hit with dangerous debris.

The Ukrainian F-16 pilot said to have shot down half a dozen Russian cruise missiles in a single mission showed remarkable skill, particularly during a risky gun battle, a former US Air Force pilot told Business Insider.

Ukraine's air force command said that an F-16 pilot took out six Russian cruise missiles during a single flight in December, calling it a first for the jet. It said that during the historic engagement, the pilot shot down two missiles with the F-16's M61A1 six-barrel 20 mm cannon.

Ret. Col. John Venable, a 25-year veteran of the US Air Force and a former F-16 pilot, told BI that the pilot's ability to gun down the Russian missiles without putting his own aircraft at risk required a lot of skill.

He said "the fact that he did that without fragging himself" says "a lot about his skill set."

Switching to guns raises risks

Ukraine's F-16s have been repeatedly seen flying with an air-defense loadout of two AIM-9 Sidewinders and two AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. The country's air force said the pilot had used up all of his missiles and was low on fuel after destroying four Russian missiles, but he then saw another Russian missile going toward Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.

He moved to intercept it, firing his gun at the missile that was traveling over 400 miles an hour, the air force said. There was more than one explosion, and the pilot realized that he had actually eliminated two Russian missiles.

The Ukrainian F-16 pilot, per a translation by RBC-Ukraine, said that there was a danger in doing that because "shooting down cruise missiles with a cannon is very risky because of the high speed of the target and the danger of detonation. But I did what the instructors in the US taught me, and I managed to hit it."

Venable said the risk of debris makes this kind of engagement more dangerous for the pilot. He said that pilots must get close to missiles to get a good shot.

He said that if the intercepting aircraft is behind the target and it explodes when hit, "you're going to be what we call fragged," meaning that the aircraft absorbs some of the explosive debris. Pilots have to come in at an angle. Venable said that there being two missiles meant the situation required greater skill.

An F-16 fighter jet flies in the air against a gray sky.
Ukrainian Air Force's F-16 fighter jet flies in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File

Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, likewise said that fighter pilots using guns must get "pretty close" to their target. That brings danger, with cruise missiles "packed with explosives."

"If you're firing at something and it's at close range and that thing goes off — you've got to be pretty aggressive and pretty brave to be doing that," he said.

It takes skill to fly this mission

Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, the former deputy assistant secretary-general for NATO's defense-investment division, told BI "shooting two cruise missiles with aircraft guns is quite impressive."

Venable said that pilots who are shooting at a missile but want to protect their aircraft must approach the missile like they are coming onto a highway from an off-ramp, "where you're at 90 degrees out, and then you start to actually align your car with the highway as that on-ramp turns onto the road."

"That's where you want to take the shot, not when you are right behind the aircraft." And doing that "takes skill," he said.

Ukraine has not commented on the aircraft's state but said the pilot landed at an airfield, indicating it was intact.

Ukraine's air force command said pilots learned to shoot missiles with aircraft cannons in US simulators but never tried it before in combat, the Kyiv Post reported.

The undersides of two F-16s flying against a gray sky.
Ukrainian Air Force's F-16 fighter jets fly in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky

Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer, told BI the gun kill was "good flying."

He said that it's "easier now with modern radars in fighters than in World War II, but the fighter still needs to close with the cruise missile and fire very accurately."

The jets are likely to continue to fight as missile shields

Battling Russian aircraft would be the better test because they shoot back, but Venable said the reported achievement, which he said was "more than plausible," says a lot "about how far Ukraine's air force has come" and the Ukrainian air force's capabilities.

Kyiv's new F-16s provide added air defense as Russia batters Ukraine with barrages of missiles, hitting major cities and energy infrastructure and killing civilians. The jets support already-strained ground-based air defenses.

This mission carries risks, and Ukraine has already lost at least one of its F-16s and one of its trained pilots.

Russia missile attacks in a residential area of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine reportedly killed two people and injured 15.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser on the International Security Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that Ukraine is facing threats Western pilots haven't.

"None have faced the numbers of simultaneous incoming missiles that the Ukrainians have," he said. "US and Western pilots have faced one or two incoming missiles at a time."

Ukraine has a limited F-16 fleet that arrived later than desired. Partner nations have pledged more than 85, far fewer than what the Ukrainians likely need. Many of the jets, older versions of what Western nations fly, still haven't been delivered.

Ukraine probably won't receive enough fighters to use them the way the West does, but it can use them to strengthen its air defenses.

Venable said Ukraine does not have enough aircraft, stealth platforms, and other assets to be able to really use its jets to press against Russia. He said partners had to be conscious of leaving enough jets in their own fleets.

Col. Yuriy Ihnat, the head of the Ukrainian air force command's public relations service, said Ukraine wants more powerful modifications and missiles for its F-16s to compete with Russia, but said the headline-making intercept showed the skill of Ukrainian pilots and how formidable Ukraine's air force could be with more powerful jets.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Ukraine says it blew up a warehouse full of Russian recon drones with a homemade rework of a Neptune anti-ship missile

A road-mobile launcher firing a Neptune missile in testing.
A test of a Neptune missile in April 2020.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

  • Ukraine attacked a Russian warehouse full of reconnaissance drones on Friday.
  • A security source said Ukraine targeted the facility with drones and a Neptune missile.
  • Russia uses its reconnaissance drones to support deep strikes, which have been a problem for Kyiv.

Ukraine says that its forces attacked a Russian warehouse facility full of reconnaissance drones on Friday, hitting it with a homemade missile not often mentioned in disclosures of Kyiv's combat operations.

The cross-border attack targeted a drone and ammunition storage facility in Russia's southwestern Rostov region, a Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) source told Business Insider Friday.

The source said that Ukraine first launched drones to overwhelm Russia's air defenses in the area before striking the site, located near the small village of Chaltyr, with a Neptune missile.

The R-360 Neptune is a subsonic, long-range cruise missile made by the Ukrainian defense manufacturer Luch Design Bureau. It was initially developed as an anti-ship missile, but the weapon has since been modified to strike land targets.

Neptune R-360 missile, Kyiv 2021.
A Neptune missile on display in Kyiv.

VoidWanderer / Wikimedia Commons

The modified Neptune missile doesn't get as much attention as some of the country's other weapons, especially those provided by Kyiv's Western partners, but Ukraine has used it to strike high-value Russian targets, including high-end air-defense batteries and, more recently, oil terminals. Friday's attack appeared to be its first confirmed combat use in quite some time.

Footage of the attack, which was shared with BI, captures the buzz of what appears to be drones. A massive fireball can be seen at one point, followed by a loud blast. Other videos show fires at the site and plumes of smoke. Since ammunition was stored at the facility, secondary explosions may have occurred.

The source said that the strike operation was carried out by the SBU and Ukraine's navy. "Now these Russian 'birds' in the sky will be reduced. Work on military facilities in the enemy's rear will continue," they said, according to a translation of their remarks shared with BI. BI was unable to independently verify the details of the operation.

A Russian soldier prepares an Orlan reconnaissance drone for launch at an undisclosed location in August 2022.
A Russian soldier prepares an Orlan reconnaissance drone for launch at an undisclosed location in August 2022.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service photo via AP

Russia uses its reconnaissance drones, like the Orlan, among other systems, to enable deep strikes on Ukraine by providing valuable intelligence, like targeting data on troop positions and critical equipment, from behind the front lines. Moscow then attacks these locations with guided tactical missiles.

Russia's reconnaissance strike complex has been a challenge for Ukraine, particularly amid strains on its air defenses.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have routinely pressed the US and its NATO allies for more air defenses and interceptor missiles to help defend against Russian strikes. The Ukrainians have also been increasingly looking to interceptor drones as cheap alternatives to costly missiles.

Taking targets out on the ground is another option. The strike on Friday marked Ukraine's latest cross-border attack in Russia. Earlier this month, Kyiv launched drones at a major port near the city of St. Petersburg, hundreds of miles away, in a bid to disrupt operations at the facility. These strikes have become a problem for Russia.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Russia's elites say they are tired of waiting for the war to end: report

Russia's President Vladimir Putin at a Security Council meeting via videoconference in Moscow on December 28, 2024.
High-ranking Russian officials are frustrated with President Vladimir Putin's war, sources told Meduza.

SERGEI ILYIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

  • Russia's elites are growing frustrated with Putin's efforts to wage war in Ukraine, per Meduza.
  • Sources told the outlet they're also concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions.
  • But Russian security officials appear to want Putin to intensify the war, a DC think tank said.

Russia's elites are growing tired of waiting for the war to end and are concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia's economy, according to a report by Meduza.

High-ranking sources told the independent Russian outlet that Russia's "elites" are disappointed that the war with Ukraine didn't end in 2024.

The sources included people close to and in the Russian presidential administration, two State Duma deputies, a senator, and three high-ranking officials in Russian regional governments.

One government source told the outlet that the overall emotions are "disappointment" and "fatigue."

"We were waiting for the war to end, for the fighting to end," they said. "We are tired of even waiting."

Two people close to the presidential administration said that the government doesn't have a clear postwar vision.

Meanwhile, another source said Russian elites, primarily high-ranking security officials, are growing irritated by the lack of manpower and material to wage the war, and believe Putin must launch a mobilization effort to further shift Russian society and economy to a war footing.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has significantly grown its military and war economy. However, the war has come at a considerable cost.

Russian troop losses have risen for six straight months, the UK Ministry of Defence said this week, citing Ukrainian data. It said Russia's costliest day came on December 19, when 2,200 of its troops were killed or wounded.

Russia's economy has also come under strain due to persistent high inflation, slowing economic growth, and Western sanctions.

Even so, the Institute for the Study of War, a DC think tank, said Meduza's report, published Thursday, suggests that high-ranking Russian military and security officials believe Putin should escalate the war rather than seek a diplomatic solution.

In an update on Thursday, the ISW said that Russian security and military officials don't appear ready to abandon the war, despite mounting battlefield losses.

Instead, it said, they are seemingly advocating for Putin to intensify Russia's war effort by calling for additional partial reserve call-ups and a formal decision to transition to a wartime footing.

But, according to the ISW, Putin is against further mobilizing the Russian economy or a partial involuntary reserve call-up because these measures would be extremely unpopular and would worsen the country's labor shortages.

Read the original article on Business Insider

China could devastate US airpower in the Pacific far more easily than the other way around, researchers warn

The rear of a grey fighter jet sitting on a runway with a cloudy blue sky in the distance.
US airfield expansions and fortification efforts in the Western Pacific have been modest compared to China's, a new report says.

US Air Force Photo by Tech. Sgt. Chris Hibben

  • China could destroy or neutralize US and allied airpower in a war with fewer shots than the other way around, a new report argues.
  • China has prioritized hardening and expanding its airfields in the region at a faster rate than the US and its allies.
  • The report's authors argue the US needs to prioritize defense, hardening airbases, and evolving its force.

In a war, China could suppress or destroy critical American airpower in the Indo-Pacific region with far fewer shots than it would take the US and its allies to do the same to Beijing's air forces, a new research report argues.

The report's authors note that China has been working faster than the US to harden its airbases and diversify its combat aircraft in the region, creating an imbalance in China's favor. American airfields are vulnerable to attack in a conflict, such as a fight over Taiwan.

A new Hudson Institute analysis from researchers Thomas Shugart and Timothy Walton highlights the serious threat facing US installations in the Pacific and echoes Department of Defense concerns about growing China's arsenal of missiles and those of US lawmakers about inadequate defenses.

In the report, Shugart and Walton write that China "has made major investments to defend, expand, and fortify" its airfields and more than doubled its hardened aircraft shelters and unhardened individual aircraft shelters over the past decade. China has also added to its taxiways and ramp areas. All of these efforts effectively give the Chinese military more places to protect and launch combat aircraft in a potential fight.

A photo showing a Chinese missile standing upright in a forest location at night, with some Chinese soldiers surrounding it.
US military officials have identified China's missile force as a premiere concern in a potential Pacific conflict.

Liu Mingsong/Xinhua via Getty Images

US efforts have been modest by comparison. And its military airfield capacity, including that of allies in the region, is roughly one-third of China's; without South Korea, that drops to one-quarter, and without the Philippines, it falls to just 15 percent.

The Air Force has been looking at dispersion and atypical runways as part of its Agile Combat Employment efforts, but there is still a notable shortfall that could be exploited.

This imbalance means it would take China far fewer missiles or airstrikes to neutralize US and allied airfields than it would the other way around, Shugart and Walton write. A preemptive strike, surprise being important in Chinese military doctrine, could catch the US and its allies off guard and give China an edge in air operations.

"Strategically, this destabilizing asymmetry risks incentivizing the PRC to exercise a first-mover advantage," the report says. "China could initiate a conflict if it sees an opportunity to nullify adversary airpower on the ramp."

Shugart wrote in 2017 that this is a real possibility, "particularly if China perceives that its attempts at deterrence of a major US intervention — say in a cross-strait Taiwan crisis or in a brewing dispute over the Senkaku Islands — have failed."

China has not been shy about its investments in being able to pull off such a strike, either. Beijing has invested heavily in its rocket force, with the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power documenting staggering growth in the number of stockpiled missiles and launchers, including the weapons it would need to hit US installations in the region. Satellite images have also documented mock American military assets, such as aircraft carriers, widely seen as missile targets.

A US bomber flies off into a sunrise with some clouds surrounding it.
The US' current approach to its airpower in the Pacific could spell trouble in a conflict with China.

U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Audree Campbell

For the conflicts and airpower operations in the Middle East, the US military enjoyed the ability to deploy to forward airfields uncontested, but the threat environment is different in the Pacific. A war with China would be very different.

But despite the significant concerns both within the Pentagon and Washington about vulnerabilities in US airbases, "the US military has devoted relatively little attention to countering these threats compared to its focus on developing modern aircraft," Shugart and Walton write. Older and newer aircraft differ in the air but are equally vulnerable on the ground.

The Ukraine war and ongoing fights in the Middle East have demonstrated that airfields are high-priority targets.

In order to counter the threat China poses, the Hudson report argues the US should invest further in active defenses for its air operations, harden its airfields to maintain resilience, and accelerate its efforts to field aircraft and unmanned systems that can operate from short or damaged runways or don't require runaways altogether, efforts fitting with ACE operations.

"Executing an effective campaign to enhance the resilience of US airfield operations will require informed decisions to prioritize projects — and sustained funding," Shugart and Walton write. "What is clear, however, is that US airfields do face the threat of attack, and the current DoD approach of largely ignoring this fact invites PRC aggression and risks losing a war." 

Read the original article on Business Insider

Russia's devastating glide-bomb attacks are down, but they remain a serious problem for Ukraine

A Russian Su-34 bomber drops a glide bomb to strike Ukrainian positions in August 2024.
A Russian Su-34 bomber drops a glide bomb to strike Ukrainian positions in August 2024.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

  • Russian glide-bomb attacks against Ukraine are down compared to a few months ago.
  • Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian airfields and ammunition depots helped to reduce the threat.
  • A Ukrainian soldier on the southern front said attacks are down by 70 percent compared to months ago.

Russia is carrying out fewer glide-bomb attacks on Ukraine compared to a few months ago, but the highly destructive weapons are still a severe threat to soldiers and civilians.

Factors behind the recent decrease in bombing runs include a string of Ukrainian drone strikes on airbases and ammunition storage facilities inside Russia during the summer and fall. Kyiv's forces are also getting better at defending against the glide bombs.

Russian aircraft have launched glide bombs at Ukraine throughout much of the war. The weapons are equipped with special kits converting dumb bombs into precision-guided munitions. They are quite difficult to intercept because they fly on non-ballistic trajectories, have small radar signatures, and have fairly short flight times.

Glide bombs come in various sizes, but among the larger is one weighing over 6,000 pounds that delivers tremendous destruction on impact.

A Ukrainian soldier fighting on the front lines in the south told Business Insider that glide bombs cause a lot of problems, but there has been a significant decrease in attacks since the summer.

A screenshot from a video FAB-3000 glide bomb mid-flight, surrounded by clouds, with the logo of the Russian defense ministry in the top-right corner.
A Russian glide bomb is seen mid-flight in July.

Russian Ministry of Defense/Screengrab via Telegram

Yuriy, a major in an electronic warfare unit of the Ukrainian National Guard, said that in his sector of the front, Russia has reduced the number of its attacks by around 70 percent compared to the summer.

He attributed the decrease to Ukraine's long-range strike campaign inside Russia. He also suggested that the presence of F-16 fighter jets, which made their combat debut for Kyiv last August, might be making Russian pilots hesitant to fly too close to the border.

The only way really for Ukraine to defeat glide bombs is to either shoot down the warplane before it releases the munition or strike the aircraft on the ground at its base. They can also destroy the ammunition stores.

During the summer and fall, Ukraine used domestically produced drones to carry out a string of high-profile attacks on Russian storage facilities where glide bombs were kept and airfields where the warplanes carrying them were based.

Ukraine has also benefitted from the Biden administration's decision to lift restrictions on Kyiv's use of American-made tactical ballistic missiles, known as ATACMS, in cross-border strikes. Ukrainian officials long argued more freedom in this space would allow them to threaten Russian airfields and reduce glide-bomb attacks.

Russian glide bombs are seen en route to their targets in August 2024.
Russian glide bombs are seen en route to their targets in August 2024.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, explained to BI that Kyiv's strikes on the airfields forced Russia to move its tactical aviation deeper into the country and away from the front lines.

This campaign has led to a decrease in sortie rate — how often Russia can get its warplanes in the air to conduct the bombing missions — and has increased the detection time that Ukrainian forces have since the aircraft are approaching from farther out.

Chernev said that Ukraine has also been chipping away at the number of glide bombs in Russia's arsenal by targeting its ammunition depots.

But these strikes aren't a "magic tool," he said. The Russians can always build another storage depot to replace one that has been destroyed. Chernev said that while glide-bomb attacks are ultimately down, "it's still a problem for us because we cannot intercept these guided bombs."

Ukraine can, however, take actions short of interception. George Barros, the geospatial-intelligence team lead and a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI that Ukraine has gotten better at using electronic warfare to interfere with the Russian glide bombs, reducing their efficacy.

Firefighters put out a fire at an apartment building that was struck by a glide bomb in Kharkiv in August 2024.
Firefighters put out a fire at an apartment building that was struck by a glide bomb in Kharkiv in August 2024.

AP Photo/Andrii Marienko

On the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region, Barros said that he's observed a correlation between the decrease in the glide-bomb attacks and the rate of Russian advances, which have slowed over the past month or two.

"The Russian forces there are very tired and very much attrited," he said, acknowledging that as a contributing factor.

But hindrances impacting Russia's ability to drop glide bombs on Ukraine, coupled with the decreased effectiveness of these weapons, "also tracks with the observation of the Russian rate of infantry advance," given that Moscow uses these munitions to support its ground forces, Barros said, adding that "these all sort of align in a mutually supporting way."

He emphasized that to prevent the glide-bomb threat from reemerging, the US and NATO need to continue arming Ukraine with long-range missiles so it can keep the pressure on Russia's airbases.

Despite an overall decrease in glide-bomb strikes, these weapons are still causing death and destruction across Ukraine. On Wednesday, Russia attacked the city of Zaporizhzhia with two munitions, killing over a dozen people and injuring more than 30, authorities said.

"This shows once again what Russia truly seeks," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said later that evening. "They want only war, and only victims."

Read the original article on Business Insider

New GOP senator tears into Dems 'seeking to delay' Pete Hegseth DOD confirmation

FIRST ON FOX: New Republican Sen. Jim Banks of Indiana laced into Democrats over what he said are attempts to delay confirmation hearings for Trump nominees, in particular that of the Department of Defense pick Pete Hegseth. 

Banks urged Senate Committee on Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss., to move forward with Hegseth's scheduled confirmation hearing on Jan. 14 as planned and not to be swayed by Democrats' requests. 

"As you are aware, Senators who are going to oppose the Hegseth nomination no matter what are seeking to delay and deny President Trump his Secretary of Defense being confirmed quickly. If they are successful, this will harm America’s national security during the crucial transition of power later this month," he wrote to Wicker on Wednesday. 

TRUMP DETAILS STRATEGY TO GET NECESSARY VOTES WITH ONE-BILL APPROACH TO BORDER, TAXES

The Republican's letter comes after fellow committee member, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., sent his own correspondence to Wicker, arguing the committee needs more information and documentation from the nominee to properly consider him. 

"I am deeply concerned that the Senate Armed Services Committee is considering the nomination of Pete Hegseth for this critically significant position without full information regarding his capacity and experience to lead our military and steward a budget of nearly $850 billion," Blumenthal said, referencing allegations that Hegseth mismanaged finances while leading a veterans' nonprofit. 

The Connecticut Democrat added, "I do not see how this committee can, in good conscience, consider Mr. Hegseth's nomination without a full review of his conduct while leading these organizations - the only civilian management experience of his career."

SENATE DEMS TO JOIN REPUBLICANS TO ADVANCE ANTI-ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION BILL NAMED AFTER LAKEN RILEY

Blumenthal said he requested additional documents of Hegseth's be reviewed, "including credit card transactions and other uses of resources." 

Additionally, the Democrat claimed Hegseth "refuses to make himself available to meet with me and my Democratic colleagues in advance of his nomination hearing." 

However, a source familiar told Fox News Digital that Hegseth reached out to Democrats in early to mid-December to meet. The only Democrat who was willing to was Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who sat down with him last month. 

BORDER STATE DEMOCRAT RUBEN GALLEGO BACKS GOP'S LAKEN RILEY ACT AHEAD OF SENATE VOTE

The others, the source said, waited until days before the scheduled Jan. 14 hearing to respond. As is the case for these types of nominees, Hegseth is scheduled to be in hearing preparation in the days leading up to it. 

In his letter to Wicker, Banks blasted Blumenthal's request. "Senator Blumenthal’s letter to you and the rest of the Committee is the latest attempt to accomplish their goal. In his letter, he raises unsubstantiated and anonymous accusations against Mr. Hegseth about his time as a leader of two organizations that advocated for America’s veterans. Senator Blumenthal’s letter purposely omits the fact that veterans who have worked with Mr. Hegseth professionally are on the record supporting his nomination," he wrote. 

RFK JR. TO MEET WITH SLEW OF DEMS INCLUDING ELIZABETH WARREN, BERNIE SANDERS

The Republican acknowledged that Blumenthal has the right to question Hegseth on the floor and ultimately oppose his confirmation. But, "He does not have the right to delay the Armed Services Committee’s important work for the national security of the United States," Banks said. 

An Armed Services committee aide told Fox News Digital they intend to have the Jan. 14 hearing as scheduled. 

North Korea's learning valuable lessons from fighting Ukraine, US warns

Putin and Kim in front of a Z symbol
 A file photo showing Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

Vladimir SMIRNOV / POOL / AFP

  • North Korea is learning combat lessons fighting Ukraine, a US official said.
  • It means the authoritarian state is more of a threat to its neighbors.
  • North Korea has dispatched around 12,000 troops to fight for Russia.

North Korea is learning valuable lessons from fighting against Ukraine, making it an increased threat to its neighbors, a US official said.

In recent months, North Korea has sent around 12,000 troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine as part of a new security pact between its leader, Kim Jong Un, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The fighting has been concentrated in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine has seized and held swaths of territory.

In exchange, North Korea is receiving economic and diplomatic backing from Russia, as well as valuable military technology.

Dorothy Camille Shea, the deputy US ambassador to the UN, discussed the arrangement at the UN Security Council, Reuters reported.

North Korea "is significantly benefiting from receiving Russian military equipment, technology and experience, rendering it more capable of waging war against its neighbors," she said.

"In turn, the DPRK will likely be eager to leverage these improvements to promote weapons sales and military training contracts globally," she said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

After brokering its alliance with Russia, North Korea has taken a defiant posture and on Monday tested a ballistic missile tipped with a hypersonic warhead.

The test came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea. The timing seemed intended to showcase North Korea's capacity to overcome the defenses of the US and its regional allies.

South Korea has watched North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war with growing concern. It said last year it could provide Ukraine with intensified support in response to the alliance with Russia.

The UN has long sought to constrain North Korea's military program, specifically its ability to deploy nuclear weapons, by imposing severe sanctions.

But Russia has used its place on the UN Security Council to stymie a committee formed to enforce them.

On Wednesday, Russia's UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, argued that North Korea's new missile tests were a defensive measure in response to military exercises by the US and its regional allies.

Under President Joe Biden, the US reaffirmed its commitment to help defend east Asian regional allies, including South Korea and Japan.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he may take a more transactional approach to broker a deal with Kim, a path he pursued in his first term.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Biden approves $500M Ukraine security package 11 days before Trump takes office

The Biden administration on Thursday announced an additional $500 million of military aid to Ukraine in a security package rushed out the door before President-elect Trump takes office.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the final time at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where he made the announcement. Both officials used the occasion to urge the incoming Trump administration to continue to support Kyiv's fight against Russia.

"If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow," Austin warned at the 25th meeting of about 50 member nations who have joined forces to support Ukraine with an estimated $122 billion in weapons and support.

"If autocrats conclude that democracies will lose their nerve, surrender their interests, and forget their principles, we will only see more land grabs. If tyrants learn that aggression pays, we will only invite even more aggression, chaos, and war."

INSIDE PUTIN'S MINDSET: WHAT TEAM TRUMP CAN EXPECT FROM MOSCOW WHEN NEGOTIATING OPTIONS ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

The latest U.S. security assistance to Ukraine includes missiles for fighter jets, support equipment for F-16s, armored bridging systems, small arms and ammunition and other spare parts and communications equipment.

The weapons package is funded by the presidential drawdown authority (PDA), meaning the weapons will come from U.S. stockpiles, expediting their delivery to Ukraine. 

ZELENSKYY SAYS TRUMP COULD BE ‘DECISIVE’ IN BRINGING AN END TO THE WAR

Officials noted this is the Biden administration's seventy-fourth tranche of equipment to be provided from Defense Department inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. 

This latest package leaves about $3.85 billion in funding to provide future arms shipments to Ukraine; if the Biden administration makes no further announcements, that balance will be available to Trump to send if he chooses.

Zelensky pleaded for the next administration to continue U.S. support for his country's defensive war against Russian invaders. 

UKRAINE RECEIVES US NATURAL GAS SHIPMENT FOR THE 1ST TIME AMID FRESH SUPPLY FEARS

"We’ve come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defense coalitions we’ve created," Zelenskyy said. "No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased of the map."

Member nations of the coalition supporting Kyiv, including the U.S., have ramped up weapons production since the Ukraine war exposed that stockpiles were inadequate for a major conventional land war.

The U.S. has provided about $66 billion of the total aid since February 2022 and has been able to deliver most of that total — between 80% and 90% — already to Ukraine.

"Retreat will only provide incentives for more imperial aggression," Austin said Thursday. "And if we flinch, you can count on Putin to push further and punch harder. Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is the security of Europe, the United States, and the world."

A top Iranian general said Russia was actually bombing the empty desert while saying it was attacking Syrian rebels

A composite image of Vladimir Putin holding a telephone to his ear and Bashar Assad smiling.
Iranian Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati, not pictured, partially blamed Russia for the fall of the Syrian government under Bashar Assad, pictured on the right.

ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images and Borna News/Matin Ghasemi/Aksonline ATPImages/Getty Images

  • Behrouz Esbati, an Iranian general, partially blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria.
  • In a speech in Tehran, Esbati accused Russia of bombing an empty desert instead of hitting Syrian rebels.
  • While difficult to verify, his frank remarks are notable since Russia is one of Iran's strongest allies.

A top Iranian general has accused Russia of lying to Tehran by saying its jets were attacking Syrian rebels while they were instead bombing the open desert.

In a rare break from Iran's diplomatic line on Syria, Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati partially blamed Moscow for the fall of Bashar Assad's government during a speech at a mosque in Tehran.

An audio recording of the speech was published on Tuesday by Abdullah Abdi, a journalist in Geneva who reports on Iran.

"We were defeated, and defeated very badly. We took a very big blow, and it's been very difficult," Esbati said of Assad's fall, according to a translation by The New York Times.

In the recording, Esbati, a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Russia told Tehran it was bombing the headquarters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group spearheading Assad's ousting.

But Moscow's forces were instead "targeting deserts," Esbati said.

Esbati further accused Russia of turning off radars when Israel launched strikes on Syria in 2024, allowing Tel Aviv's forces to attack more effectively.

The general also largely blamed internal corruption for Assad's fall, saying bribery was rife among Syria's top-ranking officials and generals.

He added that relations between Damascus and Tehran grew tense over the last year because Assad refused an Iranian request to facilitate attacks on Israel through Syria.

Business Insider couldn't independently verify Esbati's claims. But they represent an exceptionally frank assessment among Iran's top ranks of its position in Syria, where a new political leadership is still coalescing in Assad's absence.

Iran officially held a much milder tone as Assad's government fell, saying at the time that the fate of Syria would be up to its people and that it "will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria."

Assad, a longtime ally of both Iran and Russia, fled Damascus in early December as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces stormed toward the capital from the northwest. International observers believe the rebel advance largely happened as Moscow, a key source of military strength for Assad, found its resources stretched thin by the war in Ukraine.

The Russian defense ministry didn't respond to a request for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Esbati's remarks came as a former senior aide to Assad told the Saudi government-owned outlet Al Arabiya on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had stalled military assistance for Syria.

Kamel Saqr said that Assad had asked Putin to personally approve airlifting military aid to Syria — and that the Russian leader agreed.

The aid was to be transported via Iranian aircraft, but Saqr said Tehran told Assad it didn't receive any requests from Moscow.

Assad then asked Moscow about this, but "no answer came," Saqr said.

Assad's fall, which neither Moscow nor Tehran stepped up to prevent, has brought deep implications for Russia's forces in the region. Moscow had previously relied on an airbase and a naval base, which it maintained under a deal with Assad, for its operations in Africa and the Mediterranean.

It's unclear whether Russia will eventually be able to continue maintaining those two facilities, but reports show that it's preparing to move much of its equipment out of Syria. On Friday, Ukraine said Moscow was planning to move its assets to Libya.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Hundreds of veterans to descend on DC to march in support of Pete Hegseth's confirmation

FIRST ON FOX: Two former Navy SEALs are planning to bring hundreds of veterans to Washington, D.C., next week to march in support of Pete Hegseth’s confirmation for defense secretary.

Hegseth, a former Army National Guardsman, will take the hot seat before the Armed Services Committee for a hearing on Tuesday ahead of a confirmation vote.

The group, organized by Bill Brown and Rob Sweetman, are planning to pack "as many veterans into the hearing room" as possible. They plan to have veterans meet outside the Dirksen Senate Office Building at 4 a.m., before the building opens at 7 a.m. and the hearing kicks off at 9:30 a.m. 

The pair got to know Hegseth through his participation in the yearly New York City SEAL Swim in the Hudson River, organized by Brown. 

A group of veterans will also meet at the Vietnam Veterans Memorial at 9 a.m. to march in support of Hegseth. Brown is inviting all veterans to bring American flags and join their group. 

PETE HEGSETH SAYS HE HASN'T HEARD FROM WEST POINT SINCE EMPLOYEE 'ERROR' DENYING HIS ACCEPTANCE

"There's something really powerful about having a physical presence of support, other than just social media," said Sweetman. His organization, 62Romeo, helps veterans transitioning out of the military get their sleep back on track and is helping to sponsor the event. 

Sweetman expects at least 100 SEALs to join and hundreds of other veterans. 

Brown said he and others began organizing the march over the "total dismay that a lot of us in the military, a lot of us who served our country and war and overseas, have with the current leadership in the Pentagon."

Jurandir "J" Araujo, Hegseth’s first commander when he was stationed at Guantanamo Bay prison in 2004, who’s planning to help rally support, told Fox News Digital that back then he used to tell his colleagues that Hegseth would be president one day. 

"I immediately noticed his dedication and commitment to the mission, and not only to the mission but to his men."

"As a young second lieutenant and platoon leader, Pete cared about not only training and instructing his men, but being a part of their daily lives," said Araujo. "He was always very caring about his troops, and their satisfaction with what they were doing there. 

"I always saw something in him that was special," Araujo went on. "I gave him the call sign as a lieutenant of double-A, which means all-American."

"I made a point to tell the first sergeant, I said, you know, I said, "Lt. Hegseth, prepare yourself because this guy is gonna be president one day."

Hegseth’s nomination has been rocked by allegations that the former Army National Guardsman and Fox News host drank too much and behaved inappropriately with women.

A recently unearthed police report from 2017 revealed a sexual assault allegation against him that Hegseth thoroughly denies. Others have taken issue with his past comments arguing that women should not serve in combat roles.

Some still have said they don’t believe he has the experience for the job, having retired as a major. 

The veterans coming to support him in D.C. are not deterred by the allegations. 

"The Lt. Hegseth that I knew, and the Pete Hegseth that I know today is a man of integrity," said Araujo. "That's what I gauge my measurement on, as far as leadership and the ability to lead men and this country.

"His view on women in combat is the same as mine," said Brown. "The focus should be what’s going to make us the most lethal and combat-efficient force we can be." 

"We're not little guys, we're big muscly dudes. Most women are going to have a hard time, with my plates, with my gear, dragging me out of harm's way. It’s just the truth… Pete was speaking out of love."

Both Brown and Sweetman said they were infuriated over the Afghanistan withdrawal and spurred to action when the Pentagon failed its seventh audit in a row. They hope Hegseth will hold those responsible for the withdrawal accountable and cut out waste at the Pentagon. 

"There's gross corruption, fraud, wasting, abuse in the Pentagon," said Brown. "No one's been held accountable for the travesty in Afghanistan."

"We are hemorrhaging money with some of the defense contractor initiatives," said Sweetman. "There are no checks and balances on some of these large contracts, with some of the larger companies that are embedded with the government, and so we're looking at a huge budget that a lot of it is unaccounted for, specifically when we talk about the audits. How come you don't know where the money is going?"

Angelo Martinez served with Hegseth in Cuba, when he was a young soldier and Hegseth was his platoon commander. Martinez is now a staff sergeant, and has been in the Army for 21 years.

"I had the pleasure, or maybe not, of meeting many personalities or officers," he said. 

'GREATEST WARRIORS': HEGSETH RAILS AGAINST 'MISCONSTRUED' NARRATIVE THAT HE'S AGAINST WOMEN IN MILITARY

"The difference between him and other officers, and there's very few of them that treat other people, meaning the enlisted soldiers, as, not saying equal, but they will look at you as an equal person."

"A lot of officers kind of look above us as U.S. enlisted soldiers, and he's one of the few people that took the time to get to know the soldier, understand you, listen to you, listen to your viewpoints and stuff like that. He was one of the few that cared." 

"I'm actually on my way out of the military, and I joke that I hope one of the last few things I do here is I can take down the other secretary of defense and hang [Hegseth] up on my wall," Martinez said.

The NCO said he believed the fact that Hegseth didn’t retire as a colonel or a general was a plus, recalling times in Cuba when he and his platoon were on duty while the officers were off scuba diving on break. "He didn’t join them, he felt like he needed to be there with us."

"He's not that officer that would sit back and say, ‘You know what? I'm just gonna sit back and supervise and not have to deal with the grunt work.' Him not having the colonel rank or the star, it keeps him like among us still, rather than a distance, like someone above us looking down."

Martinez went on: "I have had people talk to me, asking about who he was, and how people had mixed feelings about him, what he did. And you know, a lot of people sometimes get a misunderstanding of who he is, but once you get to know him, you realize that he is the person for the job. Once you get to know him, you’ll probably be more comfortable with him being in that job."

US special operators are going back to their 'roots' with an eye on China and Russia, senior Pentagon official says

Two men wearing camouflage with their faces blurred out are kneeling in bright green grass against a green forest background.
With an eye on peer adversaries like China and Russia, the role of US special operations forces is changing, a senior Pentagon official said.

Republic of Korea Army photo by Cpl. Haon Park

  • US special operations forces are shifting their focus after decades of counterterrorism.
  • Competition with China and Russia is reshaping how SOF supports the joint force.
  • A senior Pentagon official said that special operations is also returning to its "roots."

A senior Pentagon official said this week that the role of US special operations is changing as the US faces increasing competition and challenges from China and Russia.

With the threat of a conflict against a powerful and advanced adversary looming, special operations forces are returning to their "roots," Christopher Maier, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, said.

The direction of special operations forces (SOF) is adapting to the largest challenges facing the US a rapidly growing Chinese military and Russian state set on expansion by force.

Maier said during a conversation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank on Tuesday that SOF is "still doing counterterrorism, crisis response, those have been the persistent missions," but the priority is shifting towards "increasingly where we can support other elements, largely in a support role, for those strategic competition elements."

That means playing a big role in solving challenges facing the joint force, like more modern adaptations to using artificial intelligence, as well as the traditional functions of SOF, such as "being that sensor out there and providing the necessary input to decision makers to better understand a situation," noted Maier, who previously led the Pentagon's Defeat-ISIS Task Force overseeing the campaign across Iraq and Syria that relied heavily on American special operators.

Special operators are the US military's most highly trained troops, the go-to teams for small raids and secretive missions, but they lack the numbers and firepower to go up against larger conventional forces for long.

Five men hang on a line in the blue sky with a cloud next to them.
US special operations forces are supporting the joint force as the US faces strategic competition with China and Russia.

US Air Force photo by Senior Airman Lauren Cobin

Much of the US' special operations presence in over 80 countries around the world is focused on working closely with foreign militaries, law enforcement, and embassies to keep a finger on the pulse. For the past 20 years, the US has relied on these forces for some the most unconventional and difficult missions, like teaming with partner forces to fight enemies or running shadowy helicopter assaults to kill or capture key leaders.

Maier said he views it as both a continuation of the counterterrorism and crisis response that SOF has been doing for decades and also a step back to its origins.

"We're going back to the proverbial roots of supporting the joint force with some of the hardest problems against peer adversaries," Maier said.

With the so-called War on Terror, SOF has spent over 20 years operating in counterterrorism and unconventional warfare roles, fighting quietly in a variety of environments across the world and maintaining relationships that provide the US with information on tactics of specific groups and deeper understandings of regional and security issues.

That role is now changing, albeit just as important. In a 2023 article for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, David Ucko, a professor and expert on irregular warfare, argues that leaders in Washington need to examine how to best use SOF for newer challenges against Russia and China. That includes irregular warfare, which is "highly relevant" to strategic competition with China.

But, Ucko notes, special operators fill a particular role in military operations and shouldn't be given missions that other US agencies or groups can also do.

One of the deepest challenges these secretive forces face is the widening surveillance by spy satellites and recon drones.

A group of men wearing camouflage and holding rifles stand in formation on a brown, dusty dirt terrain with a grayish blue sky behind them.
While special operations has often led the fight on counterterrorism, the shift towards peer adversary competition is changing that focus.

Master Sgt. Timothy Lawn/US Army Central

SOF missions often have multiple objectives like foreign internal defense and unconventional warfare; special operators can, for example, help boost a US ally's defense tactics against a foreign aggressor, such as Taiwan and China.

Allied special forces played critical roles in World War II, shaped by the need for specialization in unconventional missions and innovative tactics, such as sabotage behind enemy lines and disrupting German supply lines. In North Africa, British Special Air Services and Commonwealth Long Range Desert Group commandos aided in disrupting Axis troops deployments and airpower.

During the Cold War, special operators played a role in deterring the Soviet Union's influence, maintaining presence in and relationships with Western Europe and other areas.

The backs of various people wearing camouflage and helmets as they stand under a red light.
Special operations forces often focus on irregular or unconventional operations best suited for small units of highly trained operators.

US Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Steven D. Patzer

All of that historical context is informing SOF's priorities today, as the US faces similar challenges against China and Russia and their activities across the world, Maier said.

"The differences, I think, here are some of the fundamental changes in adversaries' ability to access technology," he added, and their ability to "use different types of techniques than maybe we saw in the Cold War."

Both China and Russia are actively engaged in bolstering their irregular warfare tactics, including reconnaissance, disinformation, electronic warfare, cyberspace and space efforts, and psychological warfare.

In its report on China's military growth over the course of 2023, the Pentagon noted that China is expanding its capabilities towards a vision of future conflict it calls "intelligentized warfare" focused on AI, data, and controlling information spaces.

Other elements, such as China's campaigns in Taiwan to influence domestic politics and opinions on unification, are also notable.

Read the original article on Business Insider

'Murder Hornet': The Navy's got a new nickname for the missile-packed F/A-18 fighter jets it flew into the Red Sea fight

An F/A-18E Super Hornet launches off the deck of the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea in April 2024.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet launches off the deck of the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea in April 2024.

US Navy photo

  • The US Navy is officially referring to F/A-18s armed with nine air-to-air missiles as "Murder Hornets."
  • This loadout was first observed during Red Sea combat operations last year.
  • The loadout consists of four AIM-9X and five AIM-120 missiles.

The US Navy is officially using the term "Murder Hornet" to describe F/A-18 fighter jets armed with nine air-to-air missiles, a munition configuration first spotted amid Red Sea combat operations last year.

The office of the Chief of Naval Operations highlighted the new term for these missile-packed Super Hornets in a document outlining the Navy's achievements over the past year. It said the configuration, which was used in combat as the sea service faced off against numerous airborne threats, involves arming the jets with four AIM-9X instead of two and five AIM-120 missiles.

This air-to-air loadout was first seen on a Boeing-made F/A-18 Super Hornet during flight operations aboard the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea last April. The Ike and the other ships in its strike group had deployed to the region for several months in response to repeated Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks on shipping lanes off the coast of Yemen.

The Navy took steps to boost the air-defense capabilities of its Super Hornets amid pressing threats in the Red Sea. Navy aircraft and warships have routinely shot down Houthi drones and missiles above the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since October 2023.

An F/A-18 with the Murder Hornet loadout launches from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea in April 2024.
An F/A-18 with the Murder Hornet loadout launches from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea in April 2024.

US Navy photo

The head of Naval Air Systems Command's Program Executive Office for Unmanned Aviation and Strike Weapons, Rear Adm. Stephen Tedford, said last year that the heavy air-to-air configuration, among other efforts, was brought about due to the need for "a lot more firepower and capability immediately in support of Red Sea operations and counter-UAS," The War Zone, which first reported the new nickname, previously reported.

The AIM-9X is the latest model in the decades-old Sidewinder family of short-range missiles, and the AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) is a beyond-visual-range missile capable of all-weather engagements. Both munitions are manufactured by US defense contractor Raytheon, now known as RTX Corporation.

The Eisenhower, where the Murder Hornet configuration was first showcased, is one of four carriers that, along with their strike groups, have participated in counter-Houthi operations. US forces are routinely tasked with intercepting rebel drones and missiles; the Navy said it has defended military and civilian ships from more than 180 attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Using a range of other munitions, the US military has also carried out airstrikes targeting the Houthis. Just on Wednesday, for instance, American forces bombed two underground weapons storage facilities in Yemen.

Despite a year of combat action, the Houthis still maintain the ability to launch attacks, which they claim are done out of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. In recent weeks, the rebels have stepped up drone and missile attacks on Israel, which has responded by bombing their facilities.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Ukraine said one of its F-16 pilots achieved a feat nobody flying the jet has managed before

A Ukrainian pilot abroad a F-16 fighter jet
Ukraine said one of its F-16 pilots took out six Russian cruise missiles in one flight in December 2024.

Facebook/@Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces

  • A Ukrainian F-16 pilot may have pulled off a feat no one flying the jet has achieved before.
  • Ukraine's Air Force Command said the pilots took out six Russian cruise missiles in a single flight.
  • Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said it was the first time this had been recorded in the jet's history.

Ukraine said one of its F-16 pilots achieved a feat nobody flying the jet has managed before.

In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Ukraine's Air Force Command said a pilot flying an F-16 took out six Russian cruise missiles during a single flight, using air-to-air missiles and an aircraft cannon.

This occurred during a "mass" missile and drone attack in December, it said.

On December 13, Russia fired almost 200 drones, Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, and 94 cruise missiles at Ukraine.

The pilot's main target was the cruise missiles, according to the post.

He used all four air-to-air missiles on board the F-16, two of which were short-range, forcing the jet to fly closer to the missiles — an "extremely dangerous" task, it said.

The pilot then struck two other missiles flying close to each other using an air cannon.

Business Insider was not able to verify the report.

Intercepting "such important targets is not an easy task for a pilot, but who, if not Ukrainian pilots, has the most experience in the world of winged missiles?" Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, head of the Ukrainian Air Force Command's public relations service, said.

Since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia has frequently launched large missile attacks on Ukraine, aimed at overwhelming Ukraine's air defense systems and hitting targets behind the front lines.

The pilot, who had recently undergone retraining for F-16s in the US, said in the post that Ukrainian F-16 pilots had never used an aviation cannon to shoot down targets.

However, he said he applied the lessons he learned in the US.

"I must have set a record that day," he said, adding, "I am convinced that this experience will be useful to colleagues."

Colonel Ihnat described it as the first-ever documented case.

He said that "based on objective control, we have one hundred percent confirmation that for the first time in history in anti-air combat, an American fighter F-16 shoots down six winged missiles."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Ukraine says it has a new type of river drone to spy on and take out Russian boats

Hard Cat's Black Widow 2 river drone.
Hard Cat's Black Widow 2 river drone.

Courtesy of Hard Cat

  • Ukraine says it's designed a new type of river drone to target Russian vessels.
  • The Black Widow 2 is also able to perform reconnaissance operations, it said.
  • Ukraine's military requested it to combat Russian forces and supply runs on the Dnipro River.

Ukraine says it has developed a new type of drone to target Russian vessels deployed on Ukrainian rivers.

Hard Cat, a Kyiv-based drone manufacturer, told Business Insider that the uncrewed river drone, the Black Widow 2, can take out surface targets, including small boats.

It can also carry out reconnaissance and patrolling operations, providing real-time situational awareness, it said, with a maximum speed of almost 25 miles an hour and a communication range of up to 6.2 miles.

And unlike sea drones, which operate in wider bodies of water, the one-meter-long drone's "compact size and high maneuverability allow it to operate effectively" in narrow waterways and river areas.

Hard Cat's Black Widow 2 river drone.
Hard Cat told BI the Black Widow 2 river drone has been successfully tested in rear-area conditions.

Courtesy of Hard Cat

Drones have been a hallmark of the war in Ukraine, with both sides using them to attack, surveil, and target more accurately.

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia's fleet in the Black Sea using sea drones, with notable effect.

Hard Cat unveiled the river drone's prototype at the Defense Tech Valley investment summit in Kyiv in October 2024.

It told BI the drone has now been successfully tested in rear-area conditions and is undergoing combat trials with two Ukrainian army brigades. It didn't say where those trials were taking place.

"Warfare on water is quite specific and comes with unique challenges, making such a small water drone potentially very useful," it added.

One of the developers, who requested anonymity for safety reasons, told BI that they began work on the drone in December 2023, at the request of the Ukrainian military, as a way to counter Russian motorboats used for personnel rotation, supply runs, and reconnaissance.

At the time, Ukrainian troops were fighting to hold out on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, against Russian forces that vastly outnumbered them.

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told BI that he expects Ukraine to use these new systems primarily on the Dnipro.

"They would probably be most useful in a defensive role, such as striking small vessels carrying Russian assault troops or supplies," he said, rather than working in conjunction with larger, longer-range naval drones to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Basil Germond, an expert in international security at Lancaster University in the UK, made a similar assessment.

"It is important to understand that Russia not only operates big warships and submarines but also a wide array of small boats that support land operations at the tactical level, especially in the wet areas such as the Dnipro Estuary and other rivers," he said.

Germond added: "River drones are likely to contribute to operations against these sorts of assets."

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Russian war losses in Ukraine have reached new daily highs for 5 months straight: UK MOD

A man in a Russian military uniform with an assault rifle and a pro-Kremlin military symbol "V" is displayed on a subway car of the metro train in Moscow.
December marked the sixth consecutive month that Russian monthly losses increased, and the fifth straight month that its average daily losses broke new records, the UK MOD said.

Contributor/Getty Images

  • Russian daily losses hit another record high in December, the UK MOD said.
  • The ministry said this marks the fifth straight month that Moscow's daily losses have climbed to new highs.
  • Russia's worst day for losses was on December 19, when 2,200 of its troops were killed or wounded, per the MOD.

December marked the fifth month in a row that Russian losses in Ukraine broke records for average daily highs, the UK's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

"The average daily Russian casualties reached a new monthly war high during December 2024," the ministry wrote in an intelligence update. "The daily average loss rate was 1,570, the fifth straight month that Russian Forces have sustained new war high average daily losses."

It said Russia suffered its highest daily loss in the war on December 19, saying that 2,200 of its troops were injured or killed that day.

Citing figures reported by Ukraine, the ministry said December was "likely the most costly month of the war for Russia," with a total of 48,670 dead or wounded.

The ministry added that December was the sixth straight month that Russia suffered an increase in its monthly losses.

It did not say if these numbers included losses taken by North Korean troops, of whom Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview on Sunday that 3,800 were killed or wounded.

The British ministry has regularly said over the last year that Russia has increasingly been suffering from high losses due to its reliance on mass infantry assaults aimed at wearing down Ukraine's defenses.

Ukrainian brigades, which say they are sometimes outnumbered one to five and often underequipped, have slowly yielded about 1,600 square miles of territory in 2024.

But the grinding assault has come at a high cost for Russia, with the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War estimating that Moscow lost about 40 troops for each square mile it seized.

The UK Defense Ministry added in its Tuesday update that Russian monthly losses would likely continue to worsen as the Kremlin fights on multiple fronts, often sending infantry on foot to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.

The strategy, while producing limited results, has heightened perceptions that the war hinges more than ever on either Ukraine or Russia's ability to sustain their resources on the battlefield.

Questions now hang over American aid to Kyiv, with President-elect Donald Trump, who repeatedly said he wants a swift resolution to the war, set to take office on January 20.

But a chief worry for both sides is also manpower. Ukraine has been struggling to replenish its ranks as the war drags on, pivoting in 2024 to a now much-criticized system of creating fresh brigades instead of reinforcing existing ones.

Meanwhile, Russia has been sticking to mass recruitment by offering large bonuses to new soldiers. In December, it announced that it was pouring $126 billion, or about 32.5% of its federal budget for 2025, into defense spending.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

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Trump threatens to tap allies for military shipbuilding if US can't produce

President-elect Donald Trump, fed up with the U.S.' lagging ship-building capabilities, offered an out-of-character solution to the problem: Outsource production if the U.S. can’t keep up. 

"We’re going to do something with ships. We need ships. And we may have to go a different route than you would normally go," the incoming president suggested to radio host Hugh Hewitt. 

"We don’t build ships anymore. We used to build a ship a day. We don’t build ships anymore. We want to get that started. And maybe we’ll use allies, also, in terms of building ships. We might have to." 

He noted China’s vast outpacing of American shipbuilding capabilities. 

"China’s building, from what I’m hearing, every four days, they’re knocking out a ship. We’re sitting back and watching, and we’ve suffered tremendously."

Trump’s stance is sure to put the domestic shipbuilding industry and labor groups on alert. But it comes as China’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 232 times greater than that of the U.S., and the Navy has for decades struggled to build ships on time. 

And it's a divergence from his campaign promise to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and trigger a blanket tariff on global imports into the U.S., along with a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China.

China’s navy is the largest in the world, with more than 370 ships and submarines. The U.S.' battle force includes 295 vessels, including 11 active aircraft carriers. In 2017, Congress passed a law requiring the Navy to keep and maintain 355 ships. 

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Without disclosing details, Trump hinted at a plan to grow the Navy's ship fleet. 

"We’re going to be announcing some things that are going to be very good having to do with the Navy. We need ships. We have to get ships. And you know, everybody said, ‘Oh, we’ll build them.’ We may have to go to others, bid them out, and it’s okay to do that. We’ll bid them out until we get ourselves ready," he said.

The U.S. also lags in nuclear submarines, according to military experts. The U.S.’ nuclear submarines reached a Cold War high of 140, according to Jerry Hendrix, retired Navy captain and senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute, in an op-ed for American Affairs. 

"The bottom line is that the American submarine force, the ‘point of the spear’ of American power, upon which so many military plans depend, is unprepared to meet the current threat environment, and there are no quick fixes. It has taken decades—and a sequence of bad assump­tions and poor decisions—to fall into the current state of unpreparedness," he wrote.

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The most recent figures show the U.S. submarine flight at 68, only 50 of which are classified in the hunter-killer "fast attack" category. 

Currently, China controls 46.59% of the global shipbuilding market. South Korea comes in second at 29.24%, and Japan third with 17.25%. The U.S. has a relatively insignificant control of the market at 0.13%. And it costs roughly twice as much to build a ship in the U.S. as it does elsewhere in the world. 

Congress' $895 billion annual defense policy bill authorized $33.5 billion for new ships and submarines. 

According to a Navy report last year, several key shipbuilding programs are years behind schedule, in large part due to a lack of workers. 

Trump also called out management of the Navy’s Constellation-class frigate program, blaming Biden-era officers for "playing around and tinkering," adding to costs. 

Speaking with Hewitt, Trump seemed to refer to a deal the Pentagon struck with the American arm of Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri for the new class of ships in 2020. 

"And they were going and really doing a good job, and the generals, you know, the Biden admirals and generals and all of the people that are involved, they started playing around and tinkering and changing the design, and this, you know, that costs. That costs a lot of money," Trump said.

"But the generals or the admirals went in, and they said, ‘Oh, why don’t we make it a little bit wider? Why don’t we do this? Why don’t we do that?’ And it was designed specifically for speed and other things. When you start making it wider, you start making it slower," Trump continued.

"We had it down, and they made changes. They always have to make changes. You know, these guys get in there, and they think they’re smart, and in many cases, unfortunately, they’re not smart, and they take something, and they make it worse for a lot more."

Then-President Ronald Reagan had a 600-ship goal for the Navy when he assumed office, dedicated to rebuilding the nation's fleet after the Vietnam War. But his administration also terminated a subsidy for shipbuilding that decimated the commercial market, meaning U.S. shipyards were solely dedicated to meeting the needs of the military.

Trump: Carter was a 'very fine' person but Panama Canal moves were 'a big mistake'

President-elect Trump said on Tuesday that negotiating away the Panama Canal was a "very big mistake" by former President Jimmy Carter – ahead of Carter's state funeral later this week.

Trump said at a press conference that he believes the canal, which he would like the the U.S. to reclaim, is why Carter lost the 1980 presidential election to Ronald Reagan, who also opposed the treaty Carter negotiated to hand over the canal.

"It's a bad part of the Carter legacy," Trump said.

"He was a good man. I knew him a little bit, and he was a very fine person. But that was a big mistake."

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"Giving the Panama Canal to Panama was a very big mistake. We lost 38,000 people. It cost us the equivalent of a trillion dollars, maybe more... They say it was the most expensive structure… ever built. And giving that away was a horrible thing. And I believe that's why Jimmy Carter lost the election, even more so than the hostages," he said.

Speaking in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump lamented the fact Carter purportedly "gave" the canal lands back to the Panamanians "for $1." According to reports, no part of the treaty mentioned a $1 sale.

"I thought [giving the canal back] was a terrible thing to do," Trump said.

When reporters pressed Trump on criticizing Carter on the day of his Washington wake, the president-elect said he was a "very fine person" but that his politics left something to be desired.

Trump has also sparred verbally with Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino about his plans for the canal.

However, more than a century ago, another Republican – Theodore Roosevelt – celebrated the way the United States spearheaded the canal project in part through some diplomatic maneuvering.

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In the early 1900s, as the Colombian Senate balked at a treaty favoring U.S. control, Panama was in the process of declaring its independence from Bogota – and America quickly recognized the new nation and effectively circumvented the Colombians.

In 1903, President Roosevelt boasted of the accomplishment.

"Fortunately, the crisis came at a period when I could act unhampered [by Congress]. Accordingly, I took the Isthmus, started the canal and then left Congress not to debate the canal, but to debate me," he said. 

Trump’s plans to retake the canal have earned him praise from otherwise regular critics.

Meghan McCain, daughter of the late Sen. John McCain – with whom Trump often sparred – backed the man she otherwise tends to critique.

"Trump is right about the Panama Canal. This is very personal – my dad was born in the Panama Canal Zone."

The elder McCain was born in 1936 at the then-Coco Solo U.S. Navy installation – as a U.S. citizen since the canal zone was controlled by Americans.

The late Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina also expressed reservations about canal negotiations in the 1970s.

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In a letter to then-President Ford, Thurmond warned the Panamanians were cozying up to the Communist Cuban government, and that "any action on the part of the United States that indicates the slightest position of weakness or a willingness to accommodate anti-American sentiment in Panama, would result in many other Latin American countries moving in the same leftward direction."

Thurmond led 35 senators in crafting a resolution opposing what he called the surrender of U.S. sovereignty in the PCZ.

"Any loss of control of the Canal would be extremely detrimental to our vital interests, especially in Latin America. We should make it clear that U.S. vital interests there are not negotiable."

Carter's negotiations led to Panama taking full control of the canal by 1999. His other major diplomatic negotation – peace accords between Egypt and Israel – also remain intact today.

Russia's naval base problems could be a big blow to its submarine force

A view of the Russian Kilo-class attack submarine Novorossiysk near Portugal last week.
A view of the Russian Kilo-class attack submarine Novorossiysk near Portugal last week.

NATO Maritime Command

  • A Russian attack submarine that was stationed in Syria has officially left the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The departure of the Kilo-class Novorossiysk leaves Russia without any known submarines in the region.
  • The uncertain fate of Russia's naval presence in Syria amid other setbacks could spell trouble for its submarine force.

Strategic Russian naval bases have been upended by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, creating headaches for the Kremlin's navy, including its submarine force.

Moscow no longer appears to have any attack submarines in the Mediterranean Sea after NATO forces spotted its last known submarine leaving the region last week.

Portugal's military said that it observed a Russian Kilo-class submarine moving through the country's continental exclusive economic zone near northern Spain on Friday. NATO Maritime Command later identified the vessel as the Novorossiysk.

The Novorossiysk was spotted several weeks earlier at Tartus, a naval base in Syria that Russia had used for years. The future of Moscow's military footprint at the facility — and in the country in general — was, however, thrown into uncertainty after the shocking collapse of the Assad regime last month.

There are indications that Russia is drawing down forces at its bases in Syria. Losing Tartus for good would be a significant blow to Moscow's navy — including its capable submarine force — which relies on the warm-water port to project power across the region and beyond.

Early December satellite imagery showed the Novorossiysk docked in Tartus, but by the middle of the month, it was gone, along with the rest of the Russian warships that had been there. Some of the Russian naval vessels have been spotted in recent weeks loitering off the Syrian coast, but the whereabouts of this submarine were less certain.

A black submarine sits in the water next to a dock. Sailors walk up a ramp to get into the submarine.
Russian crew members board the Novorossiysk in Saint Petersburg in August 2014.

OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP via Getty Images

Should Syria's new leadership decide Russia can no longer station its forces at Tartus, it would mark another setback for Moscow's navy, which has suffered a string of stunning losses in the nearby Black Sea since the start of the full-scale Ukraine war nearly three years ago.

Ukrainian forces have used missiles and naval drones to damage or destroy dozens of Russian naval vessels, including one of six improved Kilo-class submarines Moscow's Black Sea Fleet operates, during the conflict.

These attacks have forced Moscow to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from its long-held headquarters in Sevastopol, a major city in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula, across the region to the port of Novorossiysk along western Russia's coast. If Russia is unable to move back into Sevastopol, that creates complications.

For Russia, losing the ability to keep submarines at Sevastopol and Tartus is less than ideal.

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, said that the remainder of the Kilo-class vessels are based in St. Petersburg, where there is a large naval facility and dry docks for maintenance.

"The Russians are now having to redeploy their submarine force back up to the north" instead of relying on warm-water ports that "you could get in and out of them year-round," Clark told Business Insider. "St. Petersburg, you can't get in and out of year-round."

An overview of the naval facility at Tartus on January 6.
An overview of the naval facility at Tartus on January 6.

Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies.

Recent developments also seriously undermine Russia's military influence in the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Clark said.

The Novorossiysk is a newer improved Kilo sub. Submarines of this class are diesel-electric vessels and formidable long-range strike platforms that can attack ships and land targets, deploy for weeks on end, and stay relatively undetected. They are effectively Russia's most capable non-nuclear subs and can carry Kalibr missiles.

Russia has kept a Kilo-class vessel in the region for years. The boat's departure from the region, though Russia could ultimately opt to move another sub into the area later, may signal a broader decline in Russian naval might in the Mediterranean.

In four years, Russia appears to have gone "from being a pretty big player in the Med — in terms of naval forces — to now being a nonexistent player," Clark said.

Russia's basing challenges could ultimately hinder its ability to project power. The uncertainty with Tartus and nearby Hmeimim Air Base — underscores a broader issue for the Russian military.

Satellite imagery captured on Monday by Maxar Technologies, a commercial imaging company, shows no obvious signs of any major Russian naval vessels at Tartus, as has been the case for weeks. Ukraine's military intelligence agency has said Russia is withdrawing from the base.

Whether Moscow is able to negotiate an arrangement with the new Syrian leadership to stay in the country or is forced to relocate to a new hub in North Africa to sustain its operations remains to be seen.

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