The country's defense ministry has said it is able to spot 12,000 Russian pieces of equipment a week using AI identification tools.

• North Korean troops are engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces, the White House said.
• They've had a rough start, and seem to lack experience with drones and working with Russians.
• This has led to reported losses, but analysts said they should be able to learn to adapt.

North Korean troops have engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, with media and intelligence reports suggesting they're off to a rough start.

Footage obtained by Radio Liberty on Monday showed Ukraine striking a group of soldiers, with sources telling the outlet that North Koreans were among them.

The same day, Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops were operating in big groups out in the open, and were getting killed by drones they didn't realize were dangerous.

A senior US military official said this week that North Korea's dead and wounded could now be counted in the hundreds.

Military analysts told BI that, while the limited number of early reports makes it difficult to give a definitive assessment, they're not surprised by the reports.

"The North Koreans are taking apparently unnecessary casualties as they are rushed into combat without a period of training on the unique threats here," said Wallace Gregson, a former US Marine Corps officer and former assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.

Uncharted territory

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

Evans Revere, a senior advisor with Albright Stonebridge Group, said that while North Korean troops seemed "disciplined" and "tough," their lack of experience in ground combat and unfamiliarity with drone warfare was taking its toll.

He said that the reported casualty numbers suggest that North Korean forces are in the "thick of heavy fighting" and that "if the North Koreans continue to suffer casualties at this rate, they will very soon require fresh forces."

Revere also said their lack of Russian language and absence of experience in training and operating jointly with Russian forces seemed to be a problem.

On Saturday, Ukrainian intelligence said North Korean troops opened fire on Russian military vehicles, killing eight soldiers, due to a language barrier between the two forces.

Too early, too inexperienced

The last time North Korean troops really fought was during the Korean War, where fighting ended in 1953.

Gregson said that this time around, Russia may have thrown North Korean troops to the front in earlier waves of attacks, which he said usually include the "least-trained" soldiers.

He told BI that "high casualties" weren't unexpected, given their light infantry capabilities and the likely language barrier.

However, he said you needed to respect their "apparent courage and determination — and sacrifice — in a conflict not of their choosing far from their home."

Military analysts also said that the North Korean troops could soon adapt to the new battlefield conditions.

Revere said it won't be long before the North Koreans learn how to operate in this environment.

However, he said it's "still not clear" how well Russian and North Korean troops are operating in tandem, or whether Russian commanders are providing good leadership and guidance.

The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Thursday that Russian and North Korean forces were "almost certainly" experiencing difficulties, with North Korean troops struggling to integrate into Russia's command and control structure.

Another major issue is their unfamiliarity with modern battlefield warfare.

John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the evidence so far suggests North Korean troops were unprepared for the drone threat.

But, he said, "I suspect they'll adapt with time and may have started doing so already."

Covering up deaths

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia has been trying to conceal North Korean deaths. In a nightly address on Monday, he claimed that Russian forces were burning the faces of killed soldiers to conceal their identity.

Revere said attempts to cover up the deaths were likely part of Russia's effort to avoid admitting to the Russian people that the country lacks the ability to defeat Ukraine by itself.

North Korea has also often been the object of ridicule in Russia, he added, "so for the Russians to have to admit their need for DPRK support would be embarrassing."

For North Korea, the stakes are also high.

Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, said that Kim Jong Un is taking risks by sending troops to support Russia, especially potential elite-class military personnel.

He said that Kim is unlikely to want to return the bodies of those killed to their families, fearing potential instability inside North Korea.

"Kim will likely prefer that the soldiers who are killed simply disappear," he said.

• Trump and his team have signaled opposition to some of Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian soil.
• Trump's Ukraine envoy said this week that the killing of a Russian general was outside the rules of war.
• Trump has also criticized Biden's decision to allow strikes on Russia using US-supplied missiles.

In a worrying sign for Ukraine, the incoming Trump administration has signaled its disapproval of recent attacks on Russian soil, including long-range strikes and the assassination of a top general in Moscow using a scooter bomb.

President-elect Donald Trump's envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, said on Wednesday that Ukraine's claimed killing of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov this week was contrary to the rules of war.

Kirillov, who headed up Russia's chemical, nuclear, and biological protection troops, was killed by a bomb planted on a scooter in Moscow on Tuesday. Ukraine has claimed responsibility.

Speaking on Fox Business, Kellogg said, "There are rules of warfare and there are certain things you just kind of don't do."

He added: "When you're killing flag officers, general officers, admirals or generals in their hometown, it's kind of like you've extended it, and I don't think it's really smart to do it."

Russia said it had arrested a man in connection with the killing, saying he was suspected of a "terrorist attack," the BBC reported.

Kellogg said the events wouldn't be a setback for any peace talks.

The US State Department said it was unaware of the plot, with an unnamed official saying the US doesn't support this kind of action, according to Agence France-Presse.

Kellogg's remarks come after President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that the decision to allow Ukraine to make long-range strikes on Russia with US-supplied missiles was "stupid," and that he might reverse it once in office.

"I don't think they should have allowed missiles to be shot 200 miles into Russia," he said. "I think that was a bad thing."

Trump claimed that the decision prompted North Korea to send troops to fight alongside Russia, though intelligence agencies said that North Korean troops were being deployed at least two weeks before the Biden administration's decision.

He also said that the Biden administration should have asked for his opinion "weeks before I take over."

"Why would they do that without asking me what I thought?" he added.

Trump has repeatedly stated he would end the war in Ukraine, without publicly saying how he would achieve it.

Plans under discussion have included establishing a demilitarized zone in the areas occupied by Russia and requiring a pledge from Ukraine not to join NATO, The Wall Street Journal reported in November.

In an interview with Le Parisien on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his stance that ceding territory to Russia in any talks would be unacceptable, along with any promise not to join NATO.

Founded during the pandemic and forged amid an ongoing war with Russia, Ukrainian agency Bickerstaff.734 has been through a lot since its launch in Kyiv four years ago. As the war broke out and staff scattered across Europe, the agency put out lauded work for its clients while fighting Russian aggression with creativity. Still staunchly...

• Ukraine said it stopped a Russian spy group gathering information on its F-16 fighter jets.
• The group wanted to find out details on the airfields F-16s may be using, it said.
• Ukraine said the group's leader was detained and other members indicted.

Ukraine said it disrupted a Russian spy ring that was collecting information on the F-16 fighter jets it was given by its Western allies.

The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, said on Tuesday that it had neutralized a network of Russian spies that was gathering information about military targets, including its F-16s.

According to the SBU, the group was tasked with trying to discover the locations of military airfields where F-16 fighter jets might be kept, as well as the locations of Ukraine's air-defense systems and companies that make electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones.

It said the group was working across five regions in Ukraine and was deployed by Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU.

It is not clear how much information, if any, the group was able to gather.

The SBU said its operation exposed 12 Russian agents and their informants.

Some of them were deserters who had left Ukraine's military and were recruited by Russia while hiding from punishment, it said, adding that they used their contacts, like Ukrainian soldiers in front-line areas, to try to gather intelligence.

Ukraine's Prosecutor's Office said one deceitfully recruited three soldiers he knew by pretending to work for Ukrainian intelligence, Pravda reported.

The SBU said agents who received the information would then go to the area of potential targets to gather extra intelligence.

According to Radio Free Europe, the group's organizer was detained and prominent members were indicted on charges related to state treason and the unauthorized disclosure of military information about the movement and location of Ukrainian forces.

Other members of the group could also face charges, the report said.

The SBU said suspects could face sentences ranging from eight years to life in prison, with their property confiscated.

The F-16s are the most powerful jets in Ukraine's arsenal, making them a major military and propaganda target for Russia.

Ukraine began receiving F-16s this summer, after repeated requests for the planes. Air warfare experts say the jets are a major boost to Ukraine's defenses, helping it protect cities and other targets from Russian drone and missile attacks.

Russia began targeting Ukrainian bases where F-16s could be kept before the first ones arrived, but there have been no reports of it successfully hitting bases when the jets have been present.

Despite their perceived importance, experts say Ukraine is not receiving enough F-16s to make a major difference, and it can't use them to launch raids or go on the attack unless it gets more.

The F-16s being given to Ukraine are also decades old — and are less powerful than Russia's best jets and the most advanced planes deployed by Ukraine's allies.

• Trump's return to power comes as Ukraine struggles to stop Russia's advance.
• Trump says he'll move quickly to end the war, but Russia may be disinclined to negotiate now.
• Here are four scenarios for how the war could play out.

With the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its fourth year, attention is turning to President-elect Donald Trump and how his return to power may affect the conflict.

Trump looms as a distressing question mark for Ukraine, which has leaned into personal diplomacy to make its case in the weeks since his election. As a candidate, Trump called the war "a loser" and vowed to end it in 24 hours without saying how he would do so.

The US has provided the bulk of international security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing more than $60 billion so far. Drastic cuts or zeroing of this could enable Russia to achieve the decisive breakthrough it has so far been denied.

As both Kyiv and Moscow scramble to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of any changes Trump's administration may bring, Business Insider has taken a look at four ways the war could play out.

A cease-fire deal and frozen lines

The possibility of a temporary halt to the fighting has received renewed attention with Trump's reelection.

Trump, who has pledged to bring the war to a swift end when he returns to office, took to Truth Social on December 8 to call for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he said, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war, suggested such a deal could be achieved if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."

John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told Business Insider that Ukraine was seemingly moving away from its "maximal position" of getting back all its occupied territory but that it would want "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western nations reluctant to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome was the war being "frozen" roughly where it is now, he continued, adding that a "settlement is just too ambitious at this stage."

Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by force before launching a broader invasion in 2022. Putin, furthermore, has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictional, and many observers worry a pause of a few years will allow Russia to train more troops and stockpile more weapons ahead of another offensive.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that any peace deal brokered by Trump would likely involve some form of territorial concession.

"It's hard to imagine that it would be stable," Cancian said. "It's easy to imagine another war in a couple of years."

Long-term war

Another possibility is that Russia refuses to compromise and the fighting continues. War experts with the Institute for the Study of War think tank, for example, have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are not likely to seriously pursue negotiations while that continues.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant levels of continued Western aid, which could be a hard sell for Kyiv. Both Trump and the vice president-elect, JD Vance, have been openly skeptical of US support for Ukraine under the Biden administration.

It would also put further strain on Ukraine's manpower as well as its economy, which is already facing "intensifying" headwinds, as the International Monetary Fund said in a September update.

While Russia, too, is facing its own economic issues — the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% in October in an effort to combat high inflation — some analysts have said Moscow could go for years before it has to confront its overspending.

"For Ukraine, the long war is nothing short of disastrous," James Nixey, the director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in February. "The country cannot recruit anything like the numbers Russia can press into service. It also places greater value on human life than its opponent, meaning it inevitably suffers more from a protracted war of attrition."

However, a long war is likely to strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at what may be an unsustainable pace, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing its troop losses.

Russian victory

Putin wanted a swift military victory when his forces launched the full-scale invasion.

Almost three years later, that goal has been well and truly quashed, but Moscow could still claim victory — which would likely mean occupying more of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyy in favor of a deferential head-of-state.

For Kyiv, a worst-case scenario would see its forces' frontlines collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support, Cancian said.

In such an instance, Ukraine would likely be forced into ceding large chunks of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnipro potentially coming under Russian control through either annexation or effective oversight, he added.

Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine in recent months, straining Ukrainian defenses and compounding Kyiv's much-reported manpower shortage.

While Russia itself continues to suffer high casualties, it has been able to draw on vastly superior numbers while also adding extra recruits from North Korea to support its offensives.

Moscow has also appeared intent on avoiding distractions and keeping its focus on events in Ukraine, putting up little support to help its ally Bashar Assad as his regime collapsed in Syria — despite Russia's important military bases in the country.

In addition, Kyiv is now facing serious uncertainty in the form of Trump's imminent return, with some fearing he could cut aid to the country.

In a recent interview with Time Magazine, the president-elect said he wanted to "reach an agreement" rather than abandon Ukraine, but he added that he strongly disagreed with Biden's decision in November to allow the use of US-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russia, which Kyiv had long coveted.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia," Trump said. "Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse."

Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat

Ukrainians had harbored hope of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets said.

And while Putin's grip on power seems strong, the conflict has exposed some of the largest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries and protests over mobilization.

Russia's government is "authoritarian and it has control over the media, but it's still sensitive to public opinion," Cancian said, adding that it had likely avoided another round of mobilization as it did not want to "stir up domestic opposition," despite needing the manpower.

Washington has also pointed to North Korea's involvement in the war as a sign of the Kremlin's "desperation" and "weakness."

But with Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to the fighting, Russia's continued gains in the east, and Kyiv facing dwindling resources and drooping morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems off the cards for now.

Seth Jones, the president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, previously told BI that as long as Putin is in charge, it would be highly improbable that Russia's forces would retreat entirely. A Russian defeat, however, may threaten Putin's hold on power.

• FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash over a map it showed of Ukraine.
• The map appeared to show Ukraine without Crimea as part of it.
• A spokesperson for Ukraine's Foreign Ministry demanded a public apology from FIFA.

FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash after showing a map that appeared to omit Crimea from Ukrainian territory.

The map, which was shown during a 2026 World Cup qualifying draw earlier this week, was designed to show countries that cannot be drawn to play against each other for geopolitical reasons, such as Ukraine and Belarus.

However, the graphic appeared to highlight Ukraine but without Crimea as part of it.

In response, Heorhii Tykhyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote on X: "Are you OK, @FIFAcom?"

"By redrawing international borders in yesterday's broadcast, you not only acted against international law, but also supported Russian propaganda, war crimes, and the crime of aggression against Ukraine," he continued, adding that Ukraine expected "a public apology."

He said they had also "fixed" the map for FIFA and shared another version of it with Crimea highlighted.

In a statement to Business Insider, FIFA said it was "aware of an issue, which affected one of the graphics displayed during the draw and addressed the situation with the federation."

"The segment has been removed," it added.

The Ukrainian Association of Football (UAF) said it had written to FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafström and UEFA Secretary General Theodore Theodoridis about the matter.

"We are writing to express our deep concern regarding the infographic map of Europe shown during the TV broadcast of the European Qualifiers draw," the letter reads.

"We emphasize that the version of the map presented by FIFA during the global broadcast to a multi-million audience is unacceptable," it continues. "It appears as an inconsistent stance by FIFA and UEFA on this crucial issue, especially in light of the ongoing destructive invasion initiated by Russia against Ukraine in the 21st century, in the heart of Europe."

Business Insider contacted the UAF for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long vowed to end Russia's occupation of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

The peninsula — the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet — holds great strategic importance for the Kremlin, and it has been a major target for Kyiv since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.

The 2026 World Cup is set to take place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Ukraine is in qualifying group D, where it is set to face off against Iceland, Azerbaijan, and the winners of the France vs. Croatia Nations League quarter-final.

FIFA this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup.

• Russia is dispatching four ships to its bases in Syria, per Ukraine's main intelligence directorate.
• They will evacuate weapons and military equipment from its key base in Tartus, they said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

Russia is sending four ships to its bases in Syria to evacuate weapons and military equipment, according to Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

In a Telegram post on Thursday, the GUR said that Russia was moving its Ivan Gren-class large landing ship and the Ropucha-class tank landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Norwegian Sea to Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Their mission, it said, is to evacuate weapons and equipment.

It also said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships left Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast, and St Petersburg, respectively, and are heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base.

The trips are long voyages, requiring the ships to sail long stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russia was a close ally of Syria's recently-toppled ruler Bashar Assad. It struck a 49-year lease with his government for two bases in Syria — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

However, these bases have come under threat after Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Assad on Sunday and formed a transitional government.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

The TASS state news agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying that Russia established direct contact with HTS in Damascus.

Sources familiar with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday that talks were taking place for Russian forces to stay at the bases and that Russia was nearing a deal with Syria's new leadership.

Images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider on Tuesday showed Russian aircraft still present at the Hmeimim Air Base, but warships no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Videos captured by The Times of London's Middle East correspondent on Friday showed Russian trucks entering the Hmeimim Air Base.

On Thursday, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia's ships may be on the move as a precaution in case it needs more comprehensive evacuations.

They also said that it would probably take weeks for the Russian ships to get to Tartus.

• Ukraine is making videos and dropping leaflets on North Korean troops to get them to surrender.
• North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, per sources.
• "Many see it as a chance to escape the regime," the project's spokesman told Euronews.

Ukraine is trying to persuade North Korean soldiers to surrender rather than fight alongside Russia.

Ukrainian intelligence services have been distributing leaflets via drones and projectiles, and making videos urging North Korean troops to desert, according to Euronews.

Vitality Matvienko, spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" project, told Euronews that "of course, not everyone wants to fight."

"We know very well the living conditions in North Korea," he said. "Therefore, many see it as a chance to escape the regime and go to another country."

Ukraine is carrying out its efforts under "I Want to Live," a service that has facilitated Russian soldiers' surrender. In October 2022, Russia blocked access to its hotline and chatbot, though it is still accessible in the country via VPN.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months, with a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers serving in Russia within a year.

Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project told Business Insider the leaflets state that Kim Il Sung — North Korea's founder — does not want North Korean soldiers to fight for Russian "imperialists."

The leaflets also contain step-by-step instructions on how to surrender, with guarantees and benefits for those prisoners of war, it said.

It declined to disclose other methods being used to convince North Korean troops to surrender.

"I Want to Live" posted a video on its Telegram channel earlier this month showing a North Korean volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces calling on his countrymen to take their chance.

"We will not just welcome you but help you start a new life," he said. "Support, work, and the opportunity to live a decent life are waiting for you here. Even money, so you can start your way with a clean slate."

The text accompanying the video said Ukraine guaranteed all prisoners humane treatment. "Far away from 'Big Brother,' who watches over all the inhabitants of North Korea, it is a sin not to take advantage of this unique opportunity," it said.

In October, Ukraine's military intelligence agency put out a statement with the promise of providing comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korean soldiers who surrendered.

It also published a Korean-language video showcasing its prisoner-of-war camps, as well as the meals served there.

Last month, South Korean intelligence estimated that Russia was paying about $2,000 a month for each soldier.

But Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, told BI that he suspects the money is going directly to North Korea's ruling elite.

"Perhaps only a small amount or even nothing" will go to the soldiers themselves, he said.

• A Russian drone and missile designer was assassinated near Moscow, reports say.
• Multiple Ukrainian media outlets reported that Ukraine was involved, citing security sources.
• One source said anyone who develops Russia's military power "is a legitimate target" for Ukraine.

A senior Russian official who worked at a company that designs drones and missiles was killed in a Ukrainian operation near Moscow, according to reports.

A source in Ukraine's security services told Ukrainian outlet Pravda that Mikhail Shatsky was assassinated in a special operation by Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the country's military intelligence service.

A source told the Kyiv Independent that Shatsky was shot dead near Moscow in an attack that was likely orchestrated by Ukraine's military intelligence agency.

Ukraine has not taken responsibility for the attack.

Shatsky's body was reportedly found in the southeastern Moscow suburb of Kotelniki earlier this week.

According to Ukrainian outlet Hromadske, Shatsky was the deputy general director of Mars, a company that's part of Russia's state-owned nuclear agency Rosatom.

The outlet said he worked on the modernization of Russia's Kh-59 and Kh-69 guided aircraft missiles and helped develop new drones.

He also worked on introducing AI into Russian drones and spacecraft, Hromadske reported.

The Moscow Times and the Kyiv Independent both reported that Shatsky was a designer at Mars and head of software there.

A source told Kyiv Independent that Shatsky was seen as the main proponent of incorporating AI into Russian drones, aircraft, and spacecraft.

A security forces source told Hromadske that "anyone in any way involved in developing Russia's military-industrial complex and thus supporting Russian aggression against Ukraine is a legitimate target," according to a translation by The Moscow Times.

Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and military assets have been devastating throughout the war, and Russia has also used Kh-59 and Kh-69 cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets.

Ukraine has in the past been linked to the deaths of multiple pro-war figures but has commented on few of them, though a Ukrainian official said the country was behind the death of a Russia-backed lawmaker in a car bomb explosion in eastern Ukraine last year, in a rare response to such an event.

Ukrainian military intelligence didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

The Biden administration announced a new $500 million military aid package to Ukraine Thursday, weeks before President-elect Trump takes office. 

"The United States is providing another significant package of urgently needed weapons and equipment to our Ukrainian partners as they defend against Russia's ongoing attacks," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

The package announced Thursday includes drones; High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) artillery and ammunition; armored vehicles; nuclear, chemical and radiological protective equipment; and other equipment. 

ZELENSKYY FEARS DANGER IF UKRAINE LOSES UNITY, DEFEAT IF US CUTS FUNDS, 1,000 DAYS AFTER WAR BEGAN 

The newest round of aid follows Biden's announcement of a $988 million military aid package to Ukraine earlier this week. 

TRIUMPHANT TRUMP AT NOTRE DAME SIGNALS AMERICA AND THE WEST ARE BACK

Trump's election victory has raised questions about whether he will continue to aid Ukraine with billions in assistance. 

Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance criticized the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine, and the former president said on the campaign trial he would bring an end to the war before even entering office.

Vance made headlines this year after he suggested the best way to end the war was for Ukraine to cede the land Russia has seized and for a demilitarized zone to be established, a proposal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flatly rejected. 

During his visit to Paris last weekend, Trump met with Zelenskyy, where the pair were expected to discuss the ongoing conflict. 

Fox News Digital's Caitlin McFall contributed to this report.  

• NATO may raise defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, according to the FT.
• Trump has threatened to leave NATO if it does not spend more on defense.
• Mark Rutte, NATO's head, said that Europe understands it must do more on shared security.

NATO members may increase their defense spending to 3% of GDP, in part due to pressure by President-elect Donald Trump.

Three people involved in the preliminary talks told the Financial Times that NATO intends to make a short-term pledge to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, moving to 3% by 2030.

NATO countries are committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defense but several, including Italy and Spain, have fallen short.

This year, Poland has led the alliance on defense, spending 4.12% of GDP followed by Estonia at 3.43%, and the US at 3.38%, according to Reuters.

The talks are in the preliminary stages, according to people speaking to the FT, and will be formally agreed upon at the NATO summit in June.

The discussions to increase spending come in the wake of Trump's impending return to the White House.

Trump has long been skeptical of the alliance, and threatened to withdraw from NATO during his first term if members did not start spending more on defense.

Last month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Europe understands it must do more to ensure shared security. "That starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities," he said.

When asked about NATO's defense spending, Rutte told the FT earlier this month that he had a number in mind but did not clarify what it would be. "But clearly, when you look at the capability targets, [when] you look at the gaps still there … It is clear that, with 2%, you cannot get there," he said.

Rutte was appointed NATO head earlier this year and has gained a reputation as a "Trump whisperer" after successfully pacifying the President-elect's threat to leave the alliance in 2018.

NATO defense spending has accelerated in recent years, but experts told BI earlier this year that that has little to do with Trump.

"Pretty much all of the increases, I would say, since 2014 are a response to Russia," said Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former NATO official.

William Alberque, a former NATO arms control expert and now director of strategy, technology, and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BI's Mia Jankowicz early this year that some officials may be quietly pleased with the external pressure from Trump, allowing them to scapegoat him for their already-planned spending decisions.

Representatives for NATO did not immediately reply to a request by BI for comment.

• Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to Syrian rebel forces, The Washington Post reported.
• Groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Bashar Assad's decades-old rule on Sunday.
• The Ukrainian aid played a modest role in toppling him, Western intel sources told the outlet.

Ukrainian intelligence supplied Syrian rebels with about 150 drones and 20 drone operators last month, shortly before the offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, The Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities.

Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives as part of efforts to weaken Russia and its Syrian allies in the region, sources familiar with Ukraine's operations abroad told the Post.

Business Insider was unable to independently verify the report.

The military aid played a modest role in ousting Assad, Western intelligence sources told the outlet.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Assad after a lightning two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and ended Assad's 24-year rule.

The Post's report would be in keeping with Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's influence abroad.

Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.

A source within Ukraine's military intelligence agency told the outlet in June that since the start of the year, Ukrainian operatives had supported Syrian rebels in inflicting "numerous" strikes on Russian military facilities in the region.

In September, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Ukrainian intelligence emissaries in Idlib, in Syria's northwest, were conducting "new dirty operations" and recruiting rebel fighters there.

Last month, Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence was arming "terrorists" in Idlib and that Ukrainian specialists were present there.

Ukraine's intelligence services didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.

Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that if Ukraine is confirmed to have sent drones and drone operators to Syria, it would be surprising given how "problematic" the situation is in eastern Ukraine.

"I am not sure Ukraine can gain a lot by engaging in these types of operations," Libman said. "Rather, it will simply waste resources it needs to fight the war on Ukrainian soil itself."

The collapse of Assad, however, could jeopardize Russia's military footprint in Syria, where it could lose control over the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Russia has used those bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

Satellite images taken earlier this week by Maxar Technologies, obtained by BI, show Russian aircraft still present at Hmeimim, but Russian warships no longer present at Tartus.

It’s very hard to shoot a small moving target.

• China is limiting the sale of key drone components to the West, Bloomberg reported.
• The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January.
• It comes amid China's escalating trade dispute with the US.

China is limiting the export of critical components used in drones by Ukraine in its war against Russia's invasion, Bloomberg reported.

Multiple people with knowledge of the development told the publication that China is curbing the sale of drone parts to the US and Europe.

The report said Chinese manufacturers have limited the delivery of parts such as motors, batteries, and flight controllers, or stopped shipments completely.

The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January, Bloomberg added.

The moves come amid escalating diplomatic and trade disputes with the US.

The US has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's campaign in Ukraine, and last week restricted the sale of sophisticated chips to China used in military technology and AI.

Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a new trade war with China when he takes office in January.

In response, China has halted exports to the US of items relating to minerals and metals that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.

"The US has broadened the concept of national security, politicizing, and weaponizing trade and technology issues, and abused export control measures," China's commerce ministry said in a statement at the time, adding that the measures are effective immediately and are being implemented to "safeguard national security."

Flying drones, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), have been time crucial to Ukraine in holding back the Russian invasion, with cheap models made in Ukraine used for surveillance or fitted with explosives and used as bombs.

China's export restrictions are reportedly impacting Ukraine's capacity to make cheap drone domestically, as well as restricting the production of more sophisticated drones for firms in Europe and the US.

China is the dominant player in the global drone market, controlling around 70% of global drone markets, according to reports.

The restrictions could lead to intensified competition from Japan, Korea, and other economic rivals over the drone market, Keegan McBride, a researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute who studies tech policy, told Bloomberg.

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.

• Zelenskyy rejected US pressure to lower the draft age from 25 to 18.
• The US had suggested the reduction to address manpower shortages in the conflict.
• Zelenskyy emphasized the need for military aid instead.

Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has rejected US calls to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to help increase the number of soldiers fighting against Russia.

"We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers," Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Monday.

"The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia's military potential, not Ukraine's draft age," continued the post.

"The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages."

The post was in response to US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller's comment on Monday that the US was ready to train and arm new soldiers if Ukraine changed its conscription policy. The current minimum conscription age is 25.

"What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle," said Miller in a press briefing.

Zelenskyy previously resisted the idea in November when an anonymous US administration official told reporters that reducing the draft age would help Ukraine keep up with Russia's military.

"The simple truth is that Ukraine is not currently mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace their battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia's growing military," the senior official had said, according to The Financial Times.

In a speech to the parliament, Zelenskyy said: "Let there be no speculation — our state is not preparing to lower the mobilization age."

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed frustration with delays in military aid from Ukraine's Western allies, on whom it is dependent for advanced weapons such as Patriot and Storm Shadow missiles.

However, manpower shortages on the battlefield remain a key problem for the Ukrainians.

War analyst Michael Kofman told BI earlier this year that Ukraine's "manning situation is the kind of thing that's probably going to get worse before it gets better."

Earlier this year, a Ukrainian service member told The Washington Post that the companies in his battalion were staffed at 35% of normal levels.

• Ukraine just showed off new modifications to its fleet of naval drones.
• They appear to have been outfitted with machine guns and given the ability to carry small flying drones.
• It marks Ukraine's latest innovation for these systems, which have battered Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine appears to be operating modified naval drones in the Black Sea, sending its crewless boats into battle against Russian helicopters and patrol boats and combat against strategic gas platforms.

The naval drones used in these recent engagements were said to have been equipped with new weapons and strike capabilities, highlighting Ukraine's innovation in this space.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian Navy shared footage of it using naval drones to carry out an operation against oil platforms held by Moscow off the coast of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula. Kyiv said the mission targeted surveillance systems at the facility.

Ukraine typically loads its naval drones with explosives and drives them directly into targets; they detonate on impact. Footage of the oil platform operation showed the drones being used in this capacity, but the drone boats also served as a launching platform for smaller first-person view (FPV) drones.

This strategy depicted in the video essentially saw the naval systems converted into drone-carrying motherships. At one point, the FPV drones can even be seen chasing after multiple individuals on the oil platform. It's unclear when, exactly, this operation took place.

A few days later, on Monday, the Security Service of Ukraine shared footage of its "Sea Baby" naval drones engaging in a firefight with Russian helicopters, aircraft, and patrol boats that tried to intercept them in the Kerch Bay off the coast of Crimea.

The SBU said that its newly modified Sea Baby drones had been equipped with large-caliber machine guns and automatic target acquisition. "The Russian pilots considered themselves hunters and counted on easy hunting, but they became the prey, because the naval drones opened fire in return," it said.

Ukraine said the drones struck a barge that was transporting military equipment during the operation, which took place Thursday night.

Business Insider could not immediately verify the reported details of the footage of the recent naval drone engagements.

The two recent engagements appear to be the first public showcasing of their new capabilities. It is not, however, the first time Ukraine has innovated with its naval drones; Kyiv also equipped them with rocket and missile launchers earlier this year.

Ukraine fields several different variants of its domestically produced naval drones, including the Sea Baby platforms used by the SBU last week. These systems have allowed Kyiv, which lacks a traditional navy, to wage an asymmetrical warfare campaign against Russia and its Black Sea Fleet.

This campaign has been a major area of success for Ukraine, which has sunk, destroyed, or damaged at least 32 medium and large Russian naval vessels since the war started. Kyiv has also driven the Black Sea Fleet away from its long-held headquarters in Crimea and forced it to relocate across the waterway to the port of Novorossiysk in southwestern Russia.

Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) said in a report published over the weekend that a hacking group has been targeting the country’s defense and military companies with phishing attacks.  The CERT identified the hacking group as UAC-0185 — also known as UNC4221 — without saying who was behind the group. Earlier this year, however, […]

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• Russia launched more than 6,000 drones and missiles this fall, per The Wall Street Journal.
• Ukraine has used a combination of air defense systems and electronic warfare to counter the attacks.
• To overcome these tactics, Russia is increasing its use of decoy drones against Ukraine.

Russia fired four times as many drones and missiles at Ukraine in the past three months compared to the same time a year ago, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

Using data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the report said that Russia launched more than 6,000 drones and missiles in the war during September, October, and November.

Ukraine has used a combination of air defense missile systems and electronic warfare technology to counter Russia's attacks.

However, Russia has used a variety of tactics to overcome Ukrainian air defenses, including hitting Ukraine with a variety of drones and missiles at the same time.

It has also been using unarmed, fake drones in swarm attacks, Kyiv's military intelligence agency, also known as the HUR, wrote in a statement shared to the Telegram messaging app in November.

These drones are smaller and cheaper than the Iranian-made Shahed-136 one-way attack drone that is often used by Russia against Ukraine.

Named "Parody" by the Ukrainians, the decoy drones apparently mimic the radar signature of a Shahed to mislead Kyiv's air defenses.

Analysts believe the record drone strikes may be designed to damage Ukraine's air defenses ahead of a major attack on the country's energy infrastructure.

"The Ukrainians are going to have a difficult winter," George Barros, team lead for Russia and geospatial intelligence at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) told Sky News.

"They're very resilient and they've found ways to mitigate the effect of Russian attacks, but at the same time the Russians have also learnt — they've managed to find more effective and creative ways of penetrating Ukraine's air defense."

On Sunday, the Ukrainian air force said it shot down 28 out of 74 drones launched by Russia in a night attack targeting Ukraine. A further 46 drones were "lost," the air force said.

Russia has also been stepping up its use of missiles. Late last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced more details of the'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile, days after it was first used to strike a munitions factory in Ukraine's Dnipro region.

He said the destructive elements of the missile reach over 7,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and that it had been used as a response to Ukraine's Western allies allowing their long-range missiles to be used against Russia.

The Biden administration on Saturday announced a $988 million aid package to Ukraine to ensure it "has the tools it needs to prevail in its fight against Russian aggression." 

"This administration has made its choice. And so has a bipartisan coalition in Congress. The next administration must make its own choice," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California. "But, from this library, from this podium, I am confident that President Reagan would have stood on the side of Ukraine, American security and human freedom." 

The aid package is provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and "will provide Ukraine with munitions for rocket systems and unmanned aerial systems," a release from the administration said. "This package also includes support for maintenance and repair programs to help Ukraine reconstitute its forces and build and sustain combat power." 

The announcement came as President-elect Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while at a ceremony commemorating the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris on Saturday after a devastating fire there in 2019. 

ZELENSKYY FEARS DANGER IF UKRAINE LOSES UNITY, DEFEAT IF US CUTS FUNDS, 1,000 DAYS AFTER WAR BEGAN 

During the campaign, Trump and running mate JD Vance heavily criticized the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, and Trump said he would end the war before even entering office without offering further details. 

Vance also suggested earlier this year that the best way to end the war was for Ukraine to cede the land Russia has seized and for a demilitarized zone to be established, a proposal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flatly rejected. 

FLORIDA REP CALLS OUT DEMOCRATS FOR ‘ESCALATING’ CONFLICT IN UKRAINE

Recently, Zelenskyy has said he is more open to negotiations in the war and has called for Ukraine to be allowed to join NATO. 

The Biden administration has committed to giving Ukraine as much aid as possible before Trump takes office in January. 

"In September, the president announced a surge in security assistance for Ukraine to put Ukrainian forces in the strongest possible position before he leaves office," National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement Monday while announcing $725 million in aid to Ukraine. 

"Between now and mid-January, we will deliver hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of additional rockets and other critical capabilities to help Ukraine defend its freedom and independence." 

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, "President Biden has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and Jan. 20." 

Saturday’s announcement marks the administration’s 22nd aid package through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. 

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This week, House Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a request by the administration for Congress to authorize $24 billion in additional funding.

"It is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision now," Johnson said. "We have a newly elected president, and we’re going to wait and take the new commander in chief’s direction on all that. So, I don’t expect any Ukraine funding to come up now."