• Apple is exploring new headsets and smart-home devices to expand its lineup.
• Its plans don't always work out; it scrapped a car project and faces weak demand for the Vision Pro.
• Apple's future profits depend on the success of devices other than the iPhone.

Apple's possible future product lineup suggests the giant is entering a new era.

Many devices are reportedly in the works at the tech giant, and many of them are very different from its golden child, the iPhone. Apple followers including the Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman and the Taiwan-based supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo have said it's exploring new headsets, smart-home devices, and more.

The tech industry has long speculated about Apple's next big thing. The answer may lie in the slate that people have been reporting on for the past several months.

Creating a hit product isn't easy. The company in February scrapped plans for a car, and its $3,500 Vision Pro has gotten mixed reviews in the months since its release. On November 10, Gurman said Apple was focusing on smaller wins that could generate revenue on the same level as its iPads or wearable tech.

That requires Apple to tiptoe into new territory where competitors may already be making strides.

Bloomberg, also in November, reported on a wall-mounted smart-home tablet in Apple's production lineup that could operate home appliances, use Apple Intelligence, and access Apple apps.

The report said the project, code-named J490, could come as early as March, a month before new Apple Intelligence features are expected to roll out.

Though smart-home tech isn't a cash cow for Big Tech, another futuristic smart-home device is said to be on Apple's radar: a tabletop robot with an iPad-like display and a robotic arm.

Analysts from Morningstar, Deepwater Asset Management, and EMARKETER were skeptical about the device's profitability — or the probability of its existence — when Business Insider asked them about it in August.

Apple is also reportedly developing a smart lock and doorbell system, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. The device would allow a person to open their home's door by scanning their face, the report said. It's unclear whether the doorbell system would work with existing third-party locks or if the company would partner with a lock maker.

The technology could certainly introduce competition to Amazon's Ring and Google Nest. However, the report said it's unlikely the product would launch until the end of 2025 at the earliest.

Meanwhile, Kuo, known for his often accurate Apple product predictions, said in early November that the tech giant had delayed production of a cheaper Vision Pro to "beyond 2027" and would move ahead with a Vision Pro with its M5 processor and Apple Intelligence for 2025.

In the wearables category, Apple is said to be exploring AR glasses — perhaps inspired by the prototype Orion glasses Meta showed off in September — though they're far from production stages. The Morningstar analyst William Kerwin previously suggested that smart glasses are likely Apple's ultimate eyewear goal.

CEO Tim Cook, who's been in the role for 13 years, is guiding the company into a new future. The next line of products Apple launches could solidify his legacy.

• Paul Ollinger was Facebook's vice president of sales before he left the company.
• He grew up middle class with a scarcity mindset, he said.
• Today, he wants to teach his own kids about priorities and gratitude.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Paul Ollinger, author of "Reasonably Happy: The Skeptics Guide to Achievable Contentment." It has been edited for length and clarity.

I grew up one of six kids in Atlanta. When I was around 11, my dad was taking me to get my first cavity filled. I was super nervous, but my dad, it turns out, was thinking about money. As we walked in, he said, "Don't get the novocaine. It's $20."

That anecdote sums up everything about finances in my childhood home. My father worked for the power company, so he always had a job, but he was never rich. I had everything I needed, but scarcity was the subtext of our economic reality.

That's very different from how my own kids, who are 13 and 15, are being raised. I was one of the first 250 employees at Facebook. I left the company about 13 years ago, but due to good pay and stock options, I'll likely never need to work again as long as I make smart choices.

My son asked if we were hiring a private chef

That means my kids are growing up in a very different financial reality. When my son was 7, he came home from one of his even richer friend's house. He said, "When are we going to hire a chef?"

The reaction in my head is one I can't repeat here. I wanted to yell, "A chef? The only chef I grew up with was Chef Boyardee!" But I realized my son only knew what he sees.

I joked about sending my kids to middle-class camp at Grandpa's, where they had to face horrors like having a fan instead of air conditioning. I approach the difference between my upbringing and theirs with humor, but the truth is no one imagines raising kids in an economic situation that's so vastly different from how they were raised.

I want my kids to learn to prioritize financial decisions

One book that's helped me greatly is "The Opposite of Spoiled" by Ron Lieber. He talks about the importance of giving kids allowance, because that allows them to make mistakes with small amounts of money.

My wife and I give the kids a modest monthly allowance. That means we don't have to talk with them about money every day, and they weigh up whether they really want something, like a new soccer ball.

It's important to me that the kids know that money isn't in endless supply. If they buy X, they might not have enough money to buy Y. Although I have substantial wealth, I still prioritize my financial decisions.

For example, I could fly private, but that would require me to work in a traditional job to have more income coming in. Yet, it's more important to me to be able to do the type of work I enjoy, comedy, which happens to pay less. I value professional flexibility more than the status of flying private or the joys of getting to skip TSA, so I prioritize that.

Financial security has let me chase my dream

I've loved comedy since I first got onstage at Dartmouth College during grad school. My parents paid for college, but I had $80,000 in student loans for graduate school back in 1997. That financial reality meant that I had to take a traditional job in the tech world rather than chase my dream of being a comedian.

After working in tech for a few years and paying off my student loans, I quit to pursue comedy full time for two years. My standard of living was still good because I had a lot saved. But when I met my wife and knew we wanted kids, I returned to the tech world because I wanted more financial security than life as a standup comedian could give me.

Working at Facebook ended up being a bigger home run than I could have ever imagined. I remember saying to my wife, "This might be as big as MySpace one day." I couldn't even imagine how big Facebook would become or the changes it would bring to my life.

Now that I spend time writing jokes about my financial situation and talking about money on my podcast, I've realized that happiness comes from making a choice to be grateful, not from a number in your accounts.

• My mom and I have always been close.
• However, I didn't realize how much I still needed her until I had my own kids.
• Becoming a mother helped me understand her unconditional love for me.

I've always loved my mom dearly, but after I had kids, I found I felt even closer to her. I never thought that having a baby would change my relationship with my own mother, but it did.

Growing up, my mom was the warm, fun, cuddly sort of mom who was always heavily interested in us four kids. We always knew we were loved fiercely and unconditionally.

I vividly recall lying in bed as a child, waiting for her to come and say goodnight. She would appear at my bedside and smother me in hundreds of kisses while I giggled and said, "Stop, Momma."

When I was little, life was always a great adventure with my mom. There were spontaneous trips to the drive-in movies. Fun family barbecues and mud flights at the local lake.

I didn't realize how much I still needed my mom

In my 20s, I wanted to stretch my wings, so I moved overseas from Australia to Canada, and then to London. I didn't see my mom for several years, and while I missed her, I was busy doing my own thing and seeing the world.

When I returned to Australia at 29 and had my first child at age 30, she offered to come and help. I was living in Melbourne then, so she flew down from the Gold Coast, where I grew up, and stayed with my husband and me for seven weeks.

I realized during that time just how much I still needed her. Navigating parenthood for the first time really does rock your world, but having someone to support you who has walked that road before makes a world of difference.

In those first few weeks after our son was born, mom was a powerhouse of energy. She cooked us meals, rocked my son to sleep, and counseled me when I cried about my post-childbirth body.

When I felt completely shattered from sleep deprivation and like I couldn't cope, she would take the baby out for a walk and tell me to catch up on some sleep. On days that I needed cheering up, she'd say, "Get dressed, honey. I'm taking you to lunch."

I remember watching her burping my son over her knee one morning in our little flat, and feeling like I was seeing her through fresh eyes, almost as if for the first time. Suddenly, I felt like I understood her better.

Having my own child helped me understood her unconditional love for me

I could finally relate to the boundless love that comes with becoming a parent. My husband always says my mom is my greatest ally and will defend me to the death, even when I'm clearly in the wrong. Finally, I got it. She loved me unconditionally, just like I loved my son.

I thought about the many sacrifices mom had made for me and my siblings so that we could have a better life. Growing up, she never blew money on herself. She didn't wear name-brand clothes or have the flashiest furniture or cars. But somehow, she and my dad always found money for us kids, whether we needed it for orthodontics, acne treatments, or our many hobbies.

When it was finally time for Mom to head home and I was driving her to the airport, I felt terrified. I didn't know how I would manage without her.

"I don't want you to go," I said, tears streaming down my cheeks as I hugged her goodbye. "It's time, honey. I'm only a phone call away. You'll be OK," she said, and then she was gone.

Mom was right, of course. I was OK in the end. She'd held my hand through one of the most life-changing experiences there is, and she'd helped me find my way. Just as she did when I was a child.

• I was estranged from my mother for 11 years before she died.
• Our relationship always gave me feelings of sadness, but they often intensified over the holidays.
• Seeking therapy and embracing my emotions helped the me find joy amid holiday grief.

Tis' the season for joy, making holiday cookies in the comfort of your cozy kitchen, the smell of pine needles and sipping piping hot cocoa. But for many folks who are estranged from loved ones, including me, it's also the season for something a little less merry: grief.

My mother and I were estranged for eleven years. I say were because she is no longer earthside, but somewhere out in the ether, depending on who you ask. Of course, with that loss comes its own kind of bereavement. But before she died in 2019 after a methamphetamine overdose, our estrangement felt something like an eternal sadness, one that can't be taped over and wrapped with a bow — especially around the holiday season.

The months that mark the end of the year, a supposed-to-be-happy shift into a new year are, perhaps, the hardest months when you're estranged from a loved one, a friend or for many people, their entire family. For me, that was certainly the case. My mother, the person we all are connected to deeply in ways we can't always understand, wasn't around. She always loved Christmas time, but Halloween was her favorite, and as our eleven-year estrangement went on, I found myself a little melancholy as the spooky season approached. It went well into December, too.

We missed out on the wrapping of presents together, the jaunt to go look at the holiday lights or even watch silly movies about elves and St. Nick and those Hallmark movies she loved. And with every missed holiday together, it marked something we could never get back. Time. Memories. Joy. Sorrow. Love. This came and went every year.

Finding a way to cope

Amid our estrangement, around year three, I decided to find ways to cope with the sadness. I didn't want to stay stuck in this loop. After all, I wanted to enjoy the holidays, too. We all deserve that. So I set out to do what I knew would help me: I got a therapist booked out, every year, to talk to before the holiday season kicked in. Even if I didn't keep the sessions throughout the months, I found that having someone (a trained professional) to make a plan with — like what to do when I feel depression coming on or what I could do to help myself if I got angry messages from my mother — was a way to protect myself.

I always knew that, around the holidays, each of our feelings would be exacerbated. I'd feel the call to continue to protect myself, and she, a struggling addict, would feel the call to reach out to me and reconnect. I'd feel sad to not be able to hug her, and she'd, presumably, feel sad she couldn't hug me, too.

I used to imagine her sitting in her home that I'd never seen or been invited to before, and I'd wonder if she thought about me, or what we'd do if we were together. Over the years, I found that, instead of pushing these thoughts and feelings away, embracing them actually made things easier. We should feel all of our things, and even if they're hard, that is the reality of many folks who are estranged.

Living a joyful life

Making the decision to get professional help, and let myself notice and acknowledge how I felt, gave me permission to live in the duality: I could have complicated emotions and still live my joyful life. Of course, it also helped to confide in trusted friends, indulge in my Granny's Christmas cookies, head to the three-story mall with my little sister to shop for gifts and give myself restful days when I needed them.

Now, even after my mother has passed on, I think the process of grieving her while she was still alive, was somehow, more difficult than grieving her death. That's the thing about estrangement, it forces us to grieve a person who is still living, but who, in some ways, feels dead. Around the holidays, this always leaves me still with a sadness, that I suppose will always be there. But I can continue on.

A few years before my mother's passing, I got a card in the mail a week after Christmas. It was postmarked on December 24th. The address was one of a drug addiction treatment center, where she had checked herself in on Christmas Eve, a time when the holidays must have helped her reevaluate her life. The note simply read, "Merry Christmas, I love you." For the first time, I wholly knew, she felt the hardness of the holidays, too.

• Space junk has filled up so much of Earth's orbit that it's endangering satellites and astronauts.
• The company Kayhan Space issues roughly 1,000 space-collision warnings per day.
• Earth-orbit experts fear debris will cause an "unstoppable chain reaction" that cuts off launches.

So much junk is filling Earth's orbit that collision avoidance has become a busy business.

"We're talking about the dead satellites, the rocket bodies, the fairings, the wrenches, the gloves, and things like that that have been left up in orbit," physicist Thomas Berger said in a press briefing at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington DC on December 11.

Along with those recognizable objects, there are millions of bits of debris in orbit traveling faster than a bullet.

All that stuff is building up and increasing the risk of explosive space collisions, which is dangerous for astronauts and satellites.

Earth's orbit is so crowded with junk now that roughly 1,000 warnings about possible impending collisions go out to satellite operators each day, Berger said.

For example, Araz Feyzi, a co-founder of the orbital data company Kayhan Space, told BI in an email that some of its customer satellites get up to 800 alerts per day from the US Space Force.

Siamak Hesar, the company's other co-founder, later wrote in a SpaceNews editorial that the company tracks "more than 60,000 alerts per week for a constellation of around 100 satellites."

Most of those warnings come from one neighborhood of Earth's orbit, around 550 kilometers (340 miles) in altitude, where SpaceX's Starlink satellites live.

"It's getting difficult for satellite operators to determine which of these warnings is important and which they have to pay attention to," said Berger, who is the executive director of the Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Because trackers can't perfectly predict objects' positions in space, these collision warnings are triggered when objects are expected to pass each other at a close distance. Only a small fraction of warnings actually end in a collision.

When space objects do collide, they eject high-speed debris in multiple directions, creating a new zone of hazardous junk in orbit.

"It could generate a chain reaction, an unstoppable chain reaction of further collisions, ultimately resulting in a completely filled-up space environment," Berger said.

In the worst-case scenario, orbit could become so crowded that there's no safe space for new rocket launches.

That's a situation experts call Kessler syndrome, and "that we hope to prevent," Berger said.

Close calls and near-misses

While rare, major collisions and explosions have happened a few times.

In 2009, an American satellite and Russian satellite crashed together, ending in nearly 2,000 bits of debris large enough to detect — at least 4 inches wide — with thousands more smaller bits.

In 2021, a Chinese satellite and a Russian rocket chunk collided, creating at least 37 pieces of debris large enough for ground systems to track.

And anti-satellite missile tests by Russia, China, and India have blown up dead spacecraft in orbit, sending thousands of chunks flying.

Each of these events created its own field of hazardous debris which still rockets around the planet today with potentially dire consequences.

For example, several times a year, astronauts on the International Space Station get debris alerts and prepare to evacuate if the station is struck. When this happens, spaceships docked to the station will burn their engines to push it out of the way.

Satellite operators often respond to warnings by moving their satellites out of the way. SpaceX told the FCC in July that its satellites had conducted nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in just the first half of the year, Space.com reported.

Unfortunately, not all satellites are maneuverable.

In March, NASA had to sit on its hands and watch as a long-dead Russian spacecraft careened toward the agency's TIMED satellite, which was designed in the 1990s and doesn't have the ability to move on command.

Luckily, the two spacecraft missed each other by 17 meters (56 feet) — not very far by space standards.

"That would've been a hypervelocity impact creating thousands of pieces of debris," Berger said.

Daniel Baker, who directs the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at UC Boulder, urged the US Congress to pass the ORBITS Act. The legislation would require federal agencies like NASA and the FCC to support technologies that can remove junk from orbit.

"I believe that we are watching the tragedy of the commons play out in low-Earth orbit right before our eyes," Baker said in the briefing.

"We have to get serious about this and recognize that unless we do something, we are in imminent danger of making a whole part of our Earth environment unusable," he added.

• United Airlines' share price has more than doubled in 2024, outperforming competitors.
• The airline benefits from its hub airport structure and has been smart with deploying capacity.
• Strong finances and planned share buybacks have also helped.

United Airlines may be Boeing's biggest customer, but the two companies have had wildly different years.

A quality-control crisis and seven-week labor strike have led to layoffs, increased regulatory scrutiny, and — perhaps most problematically — production delays.

And despite massive headwinds across the entire airline industry, United has outperformed most of its peers, with its stock price up 148% in 2024.

Financial analysts and industry consultants say the airline's strong finances, share buybacks, broad network, and a coming fleet refresh are among the reasons it has been doing so well.

That's despite impacts from Boeing delivery delays, which forced United to offer pilots unpaid leave and rethink its flying this year. The airline coped by leasing planes and shrinking its domestic supply.

Clark Johns of Alton Aviation Consultancy told Business Insider that United's advantageous hub structure and hundreds of incoming narrow-body aircraft helped position the airline to better manage Boeing-related headwinds.

The carrier also benefited this year by refocusing on long-haul flying to boost business and revenue.

"Basic economy is still a major revenue stream for them, and they're expanding their premium seating," Johns said. "In some senses, they're kind of firing on all cylinders."

United flies to more overseas cities than any other US carrier

Among the biggest boons for United has been international flying.

Analysts at HSBC raised their price target for United in December to $116 —about 14% above current levels — citing its international network as a key driver.

"Its exposure to the international markets is well above its peers, and the international demand is quite strong," HSBC said, adding that United's 2024 transatlantic winter bookings — typically a slower period — are 30% higher compared to pre-Covid levels.

Johns said United "has done a good job with regards to the timing" of deploying its capacity amid delays to deliveries of new Boeing planes.

He said United had a strong performance in Europe — operating long-haul routes when demand was high but more modestly on domestic routes when overcapacity impacted US airline revenues.

United has also expanded its capacity on flights to Asia. Tokyo's Narita Airport has been a particularly key base for United, and Johns praised the airline as "tactical" in redeploying aircraft there from weaker routes out of its Guam base. In 2025, it plans to further expand in the region.

United's diverse hubs provide a strategic advantage

United benefits hub airport locations that create strong network opportunities across oceans and the Americas.

Large population centers, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, DC, and Newark, New Jersey, act as strong international gateways.

Johns said these airports help United target high-yielding premium and business traffic.

The airline also feeds passengers through hubs in Chicago, Denver, and Houston, providing good connectivity across the interior US.

In an October report seen by BI, Deutsche Bank analysts said they anticipate 2025 will be a "strong year of regional growth" for the airline's network.

Johns said Delta and American don't have the same vast hub structure and have dominance in fewer places, like Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte for American and Atlanta and Detroit for Delta.

United is revamping its fleet with hundreds of new planes

A fleet renewal plan that includes 270 new Airbus and Boeing narrow-body planes, plus 150 widebody Boeing 787 Dreamliners, is powering United's expansion.

Data from the manufacturers show that as of November 30 this year, United had received 21 Airbus A321neos, 31 Boeing 737 Maxs, and one Dreamliner. The 737 deliveries are less than half of the 71 Max planes United received through November 2023.

As it shifts capacity, United has removed the yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 10 from its future fleet plan. It has 150 units on order.

United also has new planes from rival Airbus to look forward to in the coming years, including its first A321XLR in 2026.

United's SVP of global network planning and alliances, Patrick Quayle, previously told BI the airline plans to replace its aging Boeing 757s with the A321XLR and fly to new destinations, like northern Italy and West Africa.

This influx of narrow-body planes could help United lower costs and make the airline even more competitive.

United's fleet allows for diverse revenue streams, including basic economy and money-making premium cabins; the latter is especially lucrative as corporate travel remains on the rise.

Deutsche Bank analysts said United's adjusted pretax margin of 9.7% "reflects the company's advantage of having revenue diversification with premium customers, basic economy customers, and domestic road warriors."

United's third-quarter premium revenues, including Polaris business class and premium economy, were up 5% year over year.

Basic economy was up by a fifth, signaling United's discounted fare has likely poached some business from budget carriers struggling to maintain customers who prefer more perks when flying.

Share buyback signals strong finances

In its third-quarter earnings, United's adjusted earnings per share of $3.33 beat analysts' estimates. It also announced plans for a $1.5 billion share buyback.

"We intend this buyback to be the beginning of a consistent and disciplined return of capital that is paced by our ability to generate increasing levels of free cash," said CFO Michael Leskinen.

Johns told BI that this was another sign of United's progress toward becoming a dependable "blue-chip" stock as it works to reduce its debt-to-earnings ratio.

"I think that's probably the market broadly seeing the positive aspects in terms of how the airline is performing," he said.

In a recent earnings call, United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline has been confident for the past two years that the industry is evolving to produce higher margins.

Deutsche Bank analysts are also bullish, saying: "We believe the solid earnings momentum will continue into the next two years."

• Andy Palmer, the "Godfather of EVs," explains how China took the lead in the electric car race.
• Ex-Nissan COO Palmer got the moniker after developing the Leaf, the world's first mass-market EV.
• He says Chinese EVs offer "remarkable" value for money and have better battery tech than their Western rivals.

The man often known as the "Godfather of EVs" has a warning for automakers thinking of ditching electric vehicles for hybrids.

Former Aston Martin CEO and Nissan exec Andy Palmer told Business Insider that delaying transitioning to EVs in favor of selling hybrids was a "fool's errand" and warned automakers doing so risk falling even further behind Chinese EV companies.

Palmer's moniker comes from his time as Chief Operating Officer at Nissan.

He led the development of the Nissan Leaf, the world's first mass-market electric car, which has sold over half a million units since it launched in 2010.

"I wish I could say that it was driven by a motivation to better the world. But actually, it was driven by the Toyota Prius kicking our ass," Palmer told BI.

Rather than copying the success of the hybrid Prius, Palmer says he pushed Nissan to build a fully electric vehicle, eventually securing the support of then-CEO Carlos Ghosn.

Over a decade later, he's skeptical of automakers — including Aston Martin, the company Palmer ran as CEO from 2014 to 2020 — who have taken the opposite path and turned to hybrids as EV adoption has slowed.

"Hybrids are a road to hell. They are a transition strategy, and the longer you stay on that transition, the less quickly you ramp up into the new world," said Palmer.

"If you just delay transitioning to EVs by diluting it with hybrids then you are more uncompetitive for longer, and you allow the Chinese to continue to develop their market and their leadership. I honestly think it's a fool's errand," he added.

China races ahead

Over the past few years, the auto industry has been shaken by the booming growth of Chinese brands such as BYD, which have conquered their home market with a range of affordable and high-tech EVs and hybrids and are now rapidly expanding abroad.

"The Chinese cars are bloody good. The Chinese vehicles offer remarkable value for money for what they deliver," said Palmer.

"Their battery technology's class-leading, and they've concentrated very much on their software," he said.

Palmer told BI that the success of China's EV industry was down to the country's long-running industrial strategy.

According to one study, the Chinese government has spent at least $230 billion on subsidies for electric vehicle makers since 2009.

Palmer, who previously served on the board of Dongfeng Motor Company, a joint venture between Nissan and Chinese state-owned automaker Dongfeng, says he saw firsthand how aggressive China's EV strategy was.

"The edict [from the Chinese government] was to move to new energy vehicles," he said.

"It starts with an industrial strategy. That's the big thing to learn. For the best part of 14 years, we have not had an industrial strategy," Palmer added.

Both the US and Europe have responded to the rise of Chinese automakers by imposing tariffs aimed at protecting their own auto industries, but Palmer said that tariffs would only harm Western companies' ability to compete with their Chinese rivals.

"My experience with tariffs is it just makes your indigenous industry lazy. The gap becomes even bigger," he said.

Instead, he argued that automakers should prepare for a "survival of the fittest" battle with Chinese automakers, especially in Europe, where the likes of BYD and Xpeng have ambitious expansion plans.

"I think the Chinese firms will learn from competing in Europe, because that's the toughest market in the world. If they can do that, then they're going to be unbeatable," Palmer said.

Japanese carmakers stumble

The surging growth of China's EV giants has put Palmer's former employer Nissan and its Japanese rivals Toyota and Honda under severe pressure.

Nissan announced it would lay off 9,000 workers in November, while both Toyota and Honda are facing declining sales in China and slumping profits. In December, it was reported that Nissan and Honda were in merger talks.

Palmer says while Toyota's decision to focus on hybrids paid off initially, it has left it and other Japanese automakers exposed as key markets like China transition quickly to EVs.

"Toyota took the Japanese industry down a cul-de-sac, which it is going to struggle to recover from," he said.

The former Nissan executive said his old company, meanwhile, had "shot itself in the foot" and squandered a promising lineup of electric vehicles and a 10-year lead in EV tech.

"My last board meeting in July 2014, I was under enormous attack from the bean counters who were saying; these things don't make money, we are going too fast. I managed to win the day in that meeting, but I left the company," said Palmer.

"Nissan finds itself now with a very poor lineup of products and without obvious leadership in EVs, and that's the direct result of poor management," he said.

How to get EVs moving again

The past year has been tough for electric vehicles. While sales are still growing, the pace of adoption has been slower than expected, causing automakers across the globe to roll back investments.

For Palmer, the reason some consumers have proven reluctant to go electric is simple: EVs are too expensive.

"Prices have got to align to those of internal combustion engines. And to make that happen, you've got to be able to offer cars with smaller batteries," said Palmer.

The average price of an electric vehicle in the US in October was $56,902, according to Kelley Blue Book, compared to $48,623 for gas-powered vehicles.

Palmer said that selling cheaper vehicles with smaller batteries and less range would require governments to incentivize the rollout of charging networks to alleviate range anxiety.

He added that the West could learn from China's approach to industrial strategy — especially when it comes to batteries, an industry that China dominates.

"If the West wants to catch up, I would advocate copying the Chinese," said Palmer.

"The alternative is everything is Chinese at the moment — even if you were building your own battery cells, you've still gotta get all the minerals from China. The whole supply chain is stuck," he said.

• Russia attacked Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure on Wednesday, causing power outages.
• Zelenskyy called the Christmas Day missile and drone attack "inhumane."
• Mass attacks on Ukraine's energy have been a hallmark of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Russia launched an attack on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure on Christmas Day in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as an "inhumane" move, according to multiple reports.

Zelenskyy said in a Telegram message that more than 70 missiles, including ballistic missiles, and more than 100 attack drones were launched at Ukrainian energy targets.

"Every Russian massive strike takes time to prepare. It is never a spontaneous decision. It is a conscious choice not only of targets, but also of time and date," he said, according to the BBC's translation.

"Today, Putin deliberately chose Christmas for an attack. What could be more inhumane?" he continued.

In 2022, Ukraine's Orthodox Church allowed Christmas to be celebrated on December 25, in what was widely read as a snub to Russia, which largely celebrates on January 7. Much of Ukraine has followed suit since.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy shared several images of firefighters working to tackle the damage in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Ukraine's forces shot down at least 50 of the missiles and many of the drones, but there were still power outages in several regions as a result of hits, Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine's energy minister, German Galushchenko, also said in a Facebook post that the country's energy industry was under attack on a mass scale, forcing blackouts.

DTEK, Ukraine's largest energy company, called the attack "cynical," saying it had caused serious damage and forced energy systems to cut power to the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kyiv.

The northeastern city of Kharkiv — Ukraine's second largest city — was among the worst hit, according to its mayor, Ihor Terekhov, who said there had been a series of explosions amid massive rocket fire.

He said four people had been injured as of 11 a.m. local time, and a large part of the city was without heating.

Video shared on social media — which Business Insider couldn't independently verify — appeared to show air-raid sirens going off in Kyiv amid reports that people were sheltering in metro stations.

There were also explosions reported in Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, and Ivano-Frankivsk, The Kyiv Independent reported.

Mass attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have been a hallmark of Russia's full-scale invasion. There have been mass strikes throughout the year, and as of November, an estimated two-thirds of the country's electrical generation capacity had been knocked out.

Representatives for Russia's Ministry of Defense didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

• Russia's economy will be under significant strain next year, economists told Business Insider.
• High inflation, slowing economic growth, energy prices, and sanctions could hurt its war machine.
• One expert told BI that stagnation was similar to the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1980s.

Russia's economy is likely entering a year of pain in 2025.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has restructured its economy to prioritize its war efforts, imposing export bans, tapping its national wealth fund, and strengthening trade with non-Western countries.

But unprecedented defense spending, labor shortages, and Western sanctions have come at a cost, and some believe the country is reaching the limits of its capacity.

Economists told Business Insider that while they don't expect Russia's economy to collapse, they said it would face a tough 2025 if it keeps on fighting in Ukraine.

Persisting inflation

"Russia has set in motion processes that will continue to eat out its economy from within," Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University, told BI.

He said that if the war continues, "it will put a significant strain on the already bleeding Russian budget."

Russia has increasingly boosted its defense spending to sustain its war efforts, from $59 billion in 2022 to $109 billion in 2023, and $126.8 billion set aside in 2025, when defense will make up 32.5% of Russia's federal budget, up from 28.3% this year.

While soaring defense spending has fueled Russia's economy in recent years, it has also contributed to rising inflation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin said could hit 9.5% in 2025.

To rein this in, the country's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to 21% in October, a record high, which has eaten into companies' profit margins.

The bank was expected to raise the rate again in December, but held off, though it may need to increase it next year.

"The main question is how high the inflation will be and how the slowing down will materialize," Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told BI.

Putin has acknowledged that inflation is at "a relatively high level." Speaking at an investment forum in Moscow earlier this month, he urged his government and the central bank to curb it.

TsMAKP, a Russian think tank, warned last month that Russia's failure to tame inflation was driving the country toward stagflation, a scenario in which growth is low and inflation high, and which is harder to escape than a recession.

"The overall trend is pretty grim," said Kolyandr. "I would say it's overall stagnation akin to what the Soviet Union had at the beginning of the 1980s."

The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991.

Slowing economic growth

Russia is expected to experience lower-than-expected economic growth in 2025. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF dropped its GDP growth estimate for Russia from 1.5% to 1.3%.

"Overall growth will be quite slow," Iikka Korhonen, the head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, told BI.

However, he said the Kremlin will make sure that military production has enough resources.

But "many sectors will most likely contract," he said.

US sanctions on Gazprombank and other financial institutions in November caused the ruble to plummet, according to The Wall Street Journal, which also said that companies were slashing expansion plans.

It reported that more than 200 shopping centers in Russia are under threat of bankruptcy due to rising debt burdens and almost a third of Russian freight haulers say they fear bankruptcy in 2025.

Russia's largest mobile operator, MTS, also blamed an almost 90% drop in Q3 net profits on costs related to interest payments.

"The elites are fighting for survival, and while they remain loyal to Putin, they are increasingly discontent," Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the Journal.

In fact, in recent months, Russian CEOs and business leaders have increased their vitriol against interest-rate hikes and Western sanctions.

Sergei Chemezov, CEO of defense conglomerate Roste, told Russian senators in late October that sky-high interest rates were leaving companies struggling to turn a profit.

Oil and gas prices

While Russia's share of oil and gas revenues has fluctuated in recent years, and dropped in 2023, Russia expects it to account for about 27% of the country's total budget revenue in 2025.

"As long as Russia can sell as much crude oil as it is now selling with the current prices, they will have enough tax revenue for the war well into 2025," Korhonen said.

Earlier this month, Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft agreed to a 10-year, $13 billion deal to supply crude oil to India, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal.

However, Center for European Policy Analysis' Kolyandr said he believes Russia's revenue outlook is "over-optimistic," since "global oil prices might be lower than the government thinks."

Traders expect global oil prices to fall from a projected $80 a barrel in 2024 to between $65 and $71 in 2025, due to sluggish demand, production from non-OPEC+ countries, and a shift toward cleaner energies.

While G7 countries have set a $60 price cap on Russian oil since December 2022, Russia has partly evaded the cap by using a shadow fleet, redirecting oil exports to countries like China and India, and inflating ancillary costs to obscure purchase prices.

But the tightening of Western sanctions could further reduce Russia's oil and gas revenues.

Reserves

Russia's economic performance in 2025 will ultimately come down to the availability of resources, said Korhonen.

"There will be a deficit, but it can initially be financed from the National Welfare Fund," he said.

Russia's National Warfare Fund has assets amounting to about $131.1 billion as of October, while the central bank has about $614.4 billion in international reserves.

Kolyandr, meanwhile, said that "whether Russia is going to face any crisis in 2025" would depend on everything that will happen in 2025, including oil prices, sanctions, President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies, and the Russian labor market.

"The Russian economy will continue to fall," said Weatherhead School of Management's Sheremeta, "which will restrict Russia's ability to wage war."

But he added: "Much will depend on the Western support of Ukraine."

• The world's wealthiest people have shuffled their ranks and seen their fortunes surge since 2000.
• Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison, and Steve Ballmer held top-20 spots then and still do.
• Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg didn't rank in the top 20 less than 25 years ago.

Compare the wealthiest people on the planet today to a quarter-century ago, and it's striking to see how the fortunes have grown, and most of the names have changed.

Bill Gates topped Forbes' rundown of the world's richest people in 2000, the earliest list accessible using the Wayback Machine. The Microsoft cofounder's net worth has grown from $60 billion then to $105 billion at Tuesday's close — good for 15th place in the real-time rankings.

Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, Walmart heir Rob Walton, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, and LVMH founder and CEO Bernard Arnault also made the top 20 then and still do today.

But retaining a top 20 spot has required them to grow dramatically more wealthy since 2000. For example, Ellison's net worth has more than quadrupled from $47 billion to $217 billion.

Buffett's fortune has grown more than five-fold from about $26 billion to $143 billion, despite the investor gifting over half of his Berkshire shares to good causes since 2006.

Walton and Dell's fortunes have more than quintupled in size from roughly $20 billion to well above $100 billion.

Ballmer and Arnault have notched even larger gains, with their net worths growing from about $16 billion and $13 billion each to $128 billion and $168 billion, respectively.

Meanwhile, SoftBank founder and CEO Masayoshi Son's wealth has only grown from about $19 billion to $30 billion, dropping him from eighth place to 59th.

Several other people have fallen out of the top 10. They include Gates' late cofounder, Paul Allen; Theo and Karl Albrecht, the brothers who cofounded supermarket giant Aldi; Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia; and newspaper tycoon Kenneth Thompson.

On the other hand, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Meta cofounder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alphabet cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang now rank in the top 10.

While a $20 billion fortune would have landed someone firmly in the top 10 in 2000, a net worth of that magnitude barely cracks the top 100 nowadays.

The top 10 wealthiest individuals were worth a combined $275 billion in 2000, or about one-seventh of their $2 trillion in total wealth at Tuesday's close. The 20 richest people were worth $406 billion then, a fraction of the $3 trillion they're worth today.

Musk alone is worth $454 billion today, exceeding the combined wealth of the top 20 in 2000.

The consistency between the two lists shows how companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway, Dell, and Walmart have gained value over the course of decades, enabling their largest shareholders to retain their top 10 spots almost a quarter-century later.

But it also underscores how businesses like Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia have skyrocketed in value and propelled their biggest backers into top 10 positions.

• Denmark plans to invest at least $1.5 billion to enhance Greenland's defense capabilities.
• The announcement follows Donald Trump's renewed interest in purchasing Greenland for strategic reasons.
• Greenland holds strategic value because of its location in the Arctic and its resources.

Denmark's government announced a defense package for Greenland worth at least $1.5 billion after President-elect Donald Trump reiterated that he wanted the US to purchase the Arctic territory.

The Danish defense minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, told a local media outlet that Denmark would invest "a double-digit billion amount" in kroner to buy two new inspection ships, two new long-range drones, and extra sled patrols in Greenland.

"It is ironic that it coincides with the announcement from the United States," Poulsen said, suggesting that the two events aren't necessarily related and that the investment was previously planned.

On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "for purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity." A 2019 report by The Wall Street Journal said that Trump had repeatedly expressed interest in buying Greenland.

Trump's Monday comments followed a separate post suggesting the US could take over the Panama Canal. He made the comments about Greenland in a post announcing the PayPal cofounder Ken Howery as his pick for US ambassador to Denmark.

Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, is between the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and has a population of roughly 56,000. The island is home to the US military's northernmost base and has strategic value because of natural resources and proximity to the Arctic, where Russia and China are already increasing activity. Denmark is a US ally and NATO member.

Greenland's prime minister, Mute Egede, responded to Trump's post on Monday by saying, "We are not for sale and will never be for sale." The Danish prime minister's office echoed Egede's statement, saying Greenland wasn't for sale but open for cooperation.

• Would you answer a late-night text message from a recruiter after a job interview?
• The message is a test to help determine whether someone is a good fit for a job or a culture.
• William Vanderbloemen said that not texting back isn't a dealbreaker, but a fast reply is a plus.

You go to a job interview at 1 p.m.

At about 10 p.m., you get this text: "Hey, Tim. This is Ben. I work at Vanderbloemen. I was out of the office today. I heard you were there. Heard that everyone was really impressed with you. I'm sorry I didn't get to meet you. I would love to connect with you sometime. Hope that can work."

Do you reply? If so, how long does it take you?

Your decision might affect whether you're hired.

The test's creator and occasional proctor is William Vanderbloemen. He runs an executive search firm in Houston. Vanderbloemen's company uses the text-message test after job interviews for certain roles at his own hard-charging firm or for jobs where clients expect workers to be super responsive.

Texting back quickly might up your chance of snagging the job, at least at Vanderbloemen's 45-person firm.

Sounds simple enough. But the text is also a reminder of the always-on pressure that's pushed some workers to ditch hustle culture. Trial by text message joins other offbeat quizzes meant to help determine whether a job candidate should get an offer letter. There's the spouse interview over dinner. And there's the coffee-cup test: A hiring manager shows those who come for interviews where the kitchen is, offers them a coffee, and then rejects those who don't bus their dishes afterward.

The text-message test is also a reminder of how it can be difficult to land a job even as the overall US unemployment rate is low. Yet in areas like tech that have been slow to hire, some workers are left sending out huge numbers of résumés. And when job seekers do get a bite, interviews can drag on for round after round.

Vanderbloemen was quick to note that how you respond — or don't — to an after-hours text from someone saying they're with his firm won't keep you from getting a job. And he said that even responding within 24 hours would put most candidates far ahead of their competition.

"We're just terrible as humans at responding," he said.

But text back within the one-minute response time his sales and marketing teams operate by? "Then we're like, 'Yeah, no, he might be the same kind of crazy that we are,'" Vanderbloemen said. "Is that normal for every job? No. Would it work for every company? No."

The test came about after Vanderbloemen hired some people who seemed promising but then didn't deliver on the company's fast turnaround time for clients, which he said is essential for some roles. That led Vanderbloemen to determine he had to measure for speed — before making a hire — for jobs in areas like sales and marketing.

So, about a decade ago, Vanderbloemen asked one of the people on his team to text someone who'd been great in an interview. The colleague sent the text at about 10:30 p.m., and the candidate responded right away. Bingo.

Vanderbloemen, the founder and CEO of Vanderbloemen Search Group, decided the text-message test could be a good measure of whether a candidate would mesh well with a client with a move-fast culture. He compared it to pulling off a successful organ transplant by finding tissue that matches.

"Oh, you do things the way they do," he said. "Doesn't make it normal. Doesn't make it right. But you guys match each other."

Switching the interview location

Vanderbloemen doesn't rely just on the text-message test. One time, in New York City, he got turned around and realized he didn't have time to make it to the coffee shop where he'd planned to meet a job candidate. So he contacted the man and asked whether they could meet somewhere else. The man responded: "No, I don't mind. I like change."

Vanderbloemen was impressed. Now, he sometimes changes the location of an interview 30 minutes before it's scheduled to take place to see how a candidate responds.

He said it's not something he does all the time. Some jobs don't require that kind of flexibility or speed. Even with the text message, he said, it's often someone at his firm, not him, who might send it. As the boss, he realizes it's more intimidating if it comes from him.

"It's not fair because I'm the guy with the name on the door, and now I am being kind of just abusive," he said.

Setting up some rules

Vanderbloemen, who has a degree in religion and philosophy, said his company has guidelines meant to protect its workers from needing to be on at all hours. After-hours emails should get a response within 24 hours, he said. Evening Slack messages are rare though they should get a response that night "because that's like Defcon 3," he said. "Defcon 2 would be if I text you after hours, I need an answer like now," he added. "And if I call you after hours, pick up."

Vanderbloemen said the firm enforced the rules. It meant he and some colleagues had to quit a group text about "Game of Thrones" on Sunday nights.

He said he's received "some pretty negative feedback" about the text-message test.

"My answer to that is, 'Hey, I'm glad to know you feel that way. I don't think you'd be happy working here,'" Vanderbloemen said.

He said the test still has its place in a world where some workers are trying to avoid being on call all the time.

"For our company, particularly certain teams within our company, it's a direct indicator to us of whether you are dysfunctional like us," he quipped.

An earlier version of this story appeared on October 12, 2023.

• The NYC townhouse where Bob Dylan lived quietly with his kids from the 1980s to 2005 is for sale.
• The enclave, with only 20 homes and a shared garden, remains a favorite haunt of actors and musicians.
• It's just a coincidence that the movie about his life is in theaters now, the listing agent said.

A New York City home where Bob Dylan lived quietly for years is for sale.

The legendary singer-songwriter rented the townhouse on East 49th Street in Manhattan in the 1980s — then loved it so much that he bought it under a business associate's name in 1990 for an undisclosed amount.

In 2005, he sold it to the current owners for $4.45 million; they have put it on the market with an asking price of $7.25 million.

The five-story home is in Turtle Bay Gardens, a landmarked enclave of 20 1860s-built townhouses on East 49th and East 48th whose backyards lead to a shared garden for residents only.

Dylan, one of the best-selling music artists of all time, had young kids at the time and liked the privacy, "Dylan's local fix-it man at the time" told real-estate news site Curbed.

Turtle Bay Gardens has long attracted creative types, including Hollywood and Broadway greats. Previous renters of Dylan's home, at 242 East 49th Street, included Mary Tyler Moore.

Broadway composer Stephen Sondheim called No. 244 home for 60 years until his death in 2021; it sold for $7 million in 2023, according to property records. Katharine Hepburn lived next door, at 244 East 49th Street. Child actor turned fashion designer Mary-Kate Olsen and her ex Olivier Sarkozy owned 226-228 East 49th Street from 2024 to 2022.

The current owners of Dylan's home used it as a pied-à-terre, according to Sotheby's International Realty agent Lisa Larson, who has the listing with her colleague Angela Wu.

"They just weren't coming to New York very often, so they rented it out, and now they've just decided to sell it," Larson told Business Insider.

It hit the market on December 5. The Bob Dylan biopic, "A Complete Unknown," with Timothy Chalamet as Dylan, is released in theaters on Christmas Day, December 25.

Larson said that the timing is a happy accident.

"I didn't even know there was a new Bob Dylan movie," Larson said. "It was totally coincidental, because we were just waiting for the last tenant to move out."

Take a look inside Dylan's former house, which has a mix of old-school features and modern amenities, and the secret garden on which it sits.

A house Bob Dylan lived in from the 1980s to 2005 is on the market for $7.25 million.

Starting in the 1980s, Dylan rented the home from a married couple: screenwriter Garson Kanin and his wife, actor Ruth Gordon.

He started out renting, then liked it so much he bought it.

The home is located in a somewhat hidden micro-neighborhood called Turtle Bay Gardens.

"It's got a pretty esteemed history," Larson said. "It has a lot of playwrights, writers, actors, and musicians who have lived in this enclave of 20 homes."

Owners of the 20 townhouses on East 49th and East 48th Streets can access a residents-only shared garden via their private backyards.

Turtle Bay Gardens was named a historic district by New York City's Landmarks Preservation Commission in 1966. It was built with a fountain modeled after the Villa Medici in Rome.

"It's got this unique feeling of being this special little enclave in the middle of a whole bunch of hustle and bustle and high rises," Larson said.

The current owners bought the home from Dylan for $4.45 million in 2005 and then renovated it.

"They did a more modern kitchen, they redid all the bathrooms — they did a lot of capital improvements," Larson said. "It's got all the conveniences of a modern house, but yet it still retains a lot of its old-world characteristics."

According to Larson, Dylan had installed a lot of mirrors around the townhouse that didn't survive the renovation.

The current owners used the home as a pied-à-terre and visited New York City less than five times a year.

The owners had rented out the townhouse for the last year, Larson said.

The ground floor features a patio and garden that lead to the shared garden.

The parlor level also has a terrace that leads to the lower level.

"It's not super unique to have necessarily a small terrace or a balcony on the parlor floor, but for you to be able to walk out onto it and then walk downstairs to access the garden below is pretty unique and pretty special," Larson said.

A unique feature of the home Dylan owned is the brick staircase from the private patio that leads to the shared garden.

"In my opinion, the backyard is one of the prettiest in all of Turtle Bay Gardens because it has that bi-level aspect to it, and just beautiful brickwork and stonework," Larson said.

The five-bedroom, 5½-bathroom home has around 5,400 square feet of interior space.

The library has a fireplace — one of seven in the home.

The archways throughout the five-story home are original. The elevator, though, was added on after Dylan sold.

Larson said the home is 19 feet wide.

"Some 19-footers have elevators and some don't," she added. "Having an elevator is huge."

• Lel Smits and her husband invest in stocks for their children as Christmas gifts to build wealth.
• Smits prioritizes financial literacy and chooses stocks from familiar companies for her kids.
• She also creates stock certificates and drawings to help her children visualize their investments.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Lel Smits, an entrepreneur, director, and mother of two in Sydney. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

I advocate for financial literacy, am the managing director of The Stock Network, and am a director of the Australian Shareholder's Association.

I've been investing for my children at Christmas every year since they were 1. My eldest boy is now almost 5, and I also have a 2-year-old girl.

As 'Santa' covers the Christmas presents, we tell them that the gift from their parents is this investment. Birthdays are acknowledged with gifts.

I'm not a professional investor, but by understanding the basics, such as choosing quality companies and diversification, I learned that consistent and disciplined investing can build wealth over time and provide financial security.

I invest about a day's salary for each child

Each year, my husband and I determine an appropriate amount to put toward an investment gift. It's similar to how my grandmother may have bought me some meaningful jewelry. I want to purchase something meaningful for my children that will hopefully stand the test of time.

I invest in companies my children recognize and interact with, such as Australia's largest bank and supermarket. I choose individual stocks over managed funds for my children because they represent tangible companies that are easier for them to understand and relate to.

While ETFs and managed funds are an essential part of my own diversified investment strategy, my focus for my children is to foster both financial literacy and investment growth. This approach helps them grasp the basics of investing.

I'm committed to making investing relatable, sparking their interest, teaching them how businesses work from an early age, and involving them in the process.

I have some key fundamentals that are important to me when selecting stocks

I was not raised with financial literacy. My parents didn't actively teach me, but they instilled basic concepts such as 'Don't spend more than you earn' and 'Interest works while you sleep.' My investing knowledge accelerated while I worked as a financial journalist.

I opened a share account for my children when they were born and linked my bank to a share trading account to manage their investments. This lets me buy shares directly on their behalf.

I focus on profitable companies with strong financials, consistent growth, and a proven track record. I also like to diversify across industries. I don't want my children to be in only one sector that I think is good. I've invested in consumer goods, technology, and healthcare sectors to reduce risk.

Since I'm a very active investor myself, I'm constantly researching and reading company reports.

I create stock certificates and pictures about the investments, so my kids can visualize the stocks

I print out a booklet that says 'my investment' for them and create a share certificate that looks like something you might've gotten 100 years ago.

I also draw pictures for them to accompany the investment, such as a supermarket or pizza shop. Visualizing it is my commitment to their learning and making money tangible.

I'm working on making a book called the "ABC of the ASX," which explains major companies for kids so they can start understanding investing.

We'll hand over the portfolio to the children when I have confidence it'll be managed with as much care as it has been established.

My five-year-old has started to engage and ask great questions

My children have never complained about the investment gift. Fortunately, Santa takes care of 'exciting' toys at Christmas, so investing is considered an extra.

My son has started to ask me, "How did I get this money?" and "How can I make more investments myself?" This raises the question of work, and we discuss what work is and how to earn money.

For a kid, the idea of ownership is amazing. Stepping into a supermarket, we talk about spending our money at a place where we have an investment. I think it has enhanced his worldview at a very early age.

My friends have started asking how they can do the same for their kids

My clearest message is that investing can be very simple if you focus on the basics.

Investing through trusted institutions and picking quality companies with profits can simplify what can be a very overwhelming process, even for adults.

• Uber is continuing to expand its ride options, and some might surprise you.
• The ride-hailing company launched Uber Shikara in India and Uber Shuttle in the US this year.
• It plans to bring more boat and flight options in 2025.

You might be hopping into an Uber at some point this holiday season — and depending on where you live, that ride could take many different forms.

Uber's ride-hailing services are currently available in more than 10,000 cities in over 70 countries on six continents, a company spokesperson said. And in many of those places, the company offers more than just car rides.

In some some parts of the world, you can take rides on an Uber Boat, Uber Shuttle, Uber rickshaw, or Uber Shikara, and in the past, the company has also offered more novel travel options like Uber Yacht and Uber Sleigh.

Even more options are coming in 2025.

Uber by air

Uber has been looking to the skies for years, and the US-based tech company has some big aerial plans for 2025.

In 2017, Uber offered helicopter rides, dubbed UberCHOPPER, in the United Arab Emirates, between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, for one day only to visitors of that year's Formula 1 Grand Prix race. The less-than 30-minute trip, which could accommodate up to six people, cost about $544 per person in today's dollars.

In 2019, Uber launched an ongoing helicopter ride-hailing service in New York City called Uber Copter. The offering allowed riders to request a copter ride from Manhattan, below 110th Street, to John F. Kennedy International Airport between the hours of 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. Monday through Friday.

For around $200, the service included a ride from your pickup location to the heliport, an 8-minute helicopter flight, and a ride from the heliport to your destination.

The service was short-lived, however, as the company discontinued it in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Uber isn't done with air travel just yet.

By late 2025, Uber plans to launch electric commercial "air taxis" in New York City and Los Angeles in partnership with Joby Aviation, which manufactures electric takeoff and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs.

Earlier this year, Business Insider's Taylor Rains toured one of the sleek new eVTOLs, which are much quieter and more eco-friendly than traditional aircraft.

"We're excited to continue exploring electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) partnerships in the Advanced Air Mobility space," an Uber spokesperson told BI. "This transformational technology will require connected mobility solutions on the ground and in the air to make this future a reality, especially for trips up to 100 miles."

Uber by boat

Uber offers a few different ways to glide across the water via river, sea, and lake.

One popular Uber Boat option is a water shuttle service on the River Thames in London, which launched in 2020 in partnership with boat operator Thames Clippers.

Riders can purchase a one- or two-day hop-on, hop-off pass for about $27 or buy Point A to Point B tickets, which can range in price depending on where you're going. An end-to-end single adult trip costs around $21, while shorter distances can be around $6.

Business Insider took a ride on an Uber Boat in 2021 and reported that it was much more fun than a traditional taxi ride.

And in 2025, Uber is expanding London's Uber Boat with the UK's first fully-electric cross-river passenger ferry, which will have capacity for 150 people and 100 bikes.

But if you're looking for a more upscale way to hit the waves, Uber launched a few higher-end European water transport services over the summer.

In August, travelers could book an Uber Yacht in Ibiza, Spain, to take up to eight passengers on an 8-hour private ride around the island, complete with Champagne, artisanal snacks, and land transportation to and from the skipper. The luxury adventure cost around $1,650.

Uber also started an on-demand "Limo Boat" service in Venice, Italy, in July for up to six people at about $124 per trip. The company also expanded its Uber Boat service in Greece from Mykonos to Athens, Corfu, and Santorini.

Though these higher-end options were seasonal offerings for the summer of 2024, Uber plans to announce more boat options in 2025, a company spokesperson told BI.

In December, the ride-hailing company launched Uber Shikara on Dal Lake in Srinagar, India.

Riders can book a one-hour ride on one of the traditional wooden boats, which are typically canopied and ornately painted, for up to four passengers. Uber says it will not collect any fees on the ride, and the entire amount of the fare will go directly to the Shikara driver.

Uber by land

Uber has also expanded on its original mode of transportation.

Aside from the traditional car options of UberX, UberXL, Uber Share, Uber Black, and others, the company now offers services like Uber Shuttle and Uber Auto.

In October, Uber announced its first-ever airport shuttle, which takes riders in New York City from Midtown Manhattan to LaGuardia Airport in Queens for $18.

Uber Shuttle also operates in cities throughout India, Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt.

You can also catch a ride on an Uber Auto, a three-wheeled motorized rickshaw, in over 60 cities in India. The service is so popular that Uber has expanded it into Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania, a company spokesperson said.

One of Uber's newest seasonal offerings is Uber Safari, available through the end of January, which takes up to four passengers on a day trip through the Aquila Private Game Reserve in Cape Town, South Africa for $200.

Or, if you want to take driving into your own hands, the Uber app also lets you book electric Lime bikes and scooters, or get a rental car from a local agency delivered to your doorstep.

In one of its most novel offerings, the company offered free Uber Sleigh rides — yes, on an actual reindeer-pulled sleigh in the snow — in Lapland, Finland for a week in December 2022.

What's next for Uber

Uber is continually expanding its offerings. And, in addition to bringing more flight and boat services to the app in 2025, Uber is also planning to push into the world of autonomous driving.

The company, which announced its first-ever full-year operating profit in February, is reviving its robotaxi dreams.

And on the business side of things, in 2024, the company's stock had gained around 6% by late-December, trailing the benchmark S&P 500 index, which had gained more than 27% over the same timeframe. (Main competitor Lyft was up only around 0.8%.)

• Jaymes O'Pheron is an entrepreneur who has lived all over the world.
• He and his wife moved from Washington state to Fargo, North Dakota, in 2021.
• O'Pheron said the Midwest locale is his favorite because of its strong community.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Jaymes O'Pheron, a 34-year-old entrepreneur who moved from Aberdeen, Washington, to Fargo, North Dakota, in 2021.

The Fargo-Moorhead area, home to about 261,000 people, has seen a significant population uptick in recent years and is expected to reach almost 340,000 people by 2045, a 35% growth rate, according to the Fargo-Moorhead Economic Development Corp.

My family is a bit odd. I'm the oldest of eight and grew up in a very sheltered, religiously-minded family. I spent most of my childhood in Washington state, outside Vancouver and across the river from Portland. When I was 17, my dad got a job in Texas, so we moved South.

After that, we deliberately decided as a family to leave America. We picked Ireland because, at the time, it was the last English-speaking nation that did not allow abortion. We wanted to support that.

I absolutely loved Ireland. The weather, the people, the history, the language, the food, the music, the pace of life, the cities, the way it's designed — it's very communal.

After four years in Ireland, though, some personal issues led me to move back to Washington in 2012. I met my wife in Aberdeen, and we got married in 2018.

But we knew we weren't going to stick around Washington forever. We had been experiencing some health issues that we eventually traced back to mold allergies. We realized we were biologically incompatible with mold and how damp and moldy the Northwest is. We couldn't live there.

We wanted to find a permanent home, so we started researching potential places to move in 2019.

We tried to be intentional about where we ended up. We narrowed it down to a few places with favorable economic and regulatory aspects and a positive culture.

Then, we visited Fargo, and we knew this was the place. We officially moved in May 2021.

Fargo is very friendly to startups

I'm a serial entrepreneur. I can't stop starting things, both nonprofit and for-profit. Right now, I'm primarily focusing on my nonprofit, which is focused on empowering people to be change-makers in their communities.

I'm also a freelance coach for career performance, communication, networking, and burnout prevention.

The community support here in Fargo is incredible. That was hugely important as I was trying to build up my coaching business. I needed a larger metro center to network, but I also needed a regulatory environment conducive to small business startups.

Fargo is a great place for small business startups, a huge part of which is due to the community. The people recognize that we need to support one another. Being an entrepreneur is emotionally difficult and risky. Having people around you cheering you on and having your back is incredibly valuable.

That community support is unique from all the other places I've lived. You can walk out onto the street and make friends with anyone.

We are definitely putting down roots here. We want our great-grandchildren to live here, so we started looking for a place to buy.

We found a beautiful home. I'm on the HOA board. There are a lot of benefits and assistance in North Dakota for people who are first-time home buyers.

In Washington, I was living in a studio apartment. We paid about the same rate here in Fargo for our two-bedroom apartment, which was twice the square footage, just outside downtown.

It's one of the best places in the country as far as the ratio between low cost of living and high-paying jobs goes. The quality of living is high. There are a lot of job opportunities here.

Fargo is my favorite place I've lived

I just love Fargo. It's my favorite of all the places I've lived because I have all my favorite people here. I have better friends here than I've had in my entire life. My favorite part is the community.

When we first drove to Fargo, it felt like we were driving home. There's something about the scale of the city that is very approachable. It is a downtown area with robust activity, but it also has that small-town feel. It feels very safe and welcoming.

We had new friends from church help us move into an apartment immediately. We had met the pastor when we first got to Fargo, and he put out a call to the parish, and they all showed up to help us.

Because it's a college town, there's a lot of youthful energy and idealism. It's also on the border of Minnesota, a blue state. So, Fargo is a true purple city. There's a lot of diversity of thought and opinions. People actually have conversations, which is cool.

The one thing we were anticipating having to adjust to was the weather. We made sure we did all the preparation. We changed our car battery and got the right kinds of tires.

We had a really hard winter our first year there. But it was fun. I shoveled snow from our patio into the bathtub and took an ice bath. The cold weather actually leads to the quality of the community here. People help one another because we're all in it together.

Fargo is growing quickly. One of the issues we're dealing with is where to put all the people. We don't want to create sky-high prices or spread out too far so people can't commute. The city is trying to strike that balance of small-town heart and big-town body that we love so much.

As a burnout coach, I know that the silver bullet is community. We need to be able to connect with people around us authentically. Loneliness is killing us. So, it's a luxury to have people here at Fargo whom I can rely on.

I think others who value community should look at Fargo. It's an amazing place to be.

• Russian interest rates on deposits and loans have risen faster than its central bank's key rate.
• A central-bank official said lending might have slowed too quickly in the battle to lower inflation.
• Russia's central bank has kept its interest rate at 21% to avoid excessive cooling in its economy.

Russia's central bank has been hiking rates consistently in the second half of this year in an attempt to cool high inflation — but it may be running ahead of the curve.

Bank lending has slowed, but there's a risk that it's "faster than necessary" in the fight to bring down inflation to Russia's target rate, a central-bank official told Interfax on Tuesday.

Andrey Gangan, the director of the Central Bank of Russia's Monetary Policy Department, told the news agency that bank interest rates on deposits and loans were rising faster than the central bank's benchmark rate, slowing lending activity.

The development prompted the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 21% on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected Russia's central bank to hike its key rate to 23%.

"Throughout December, we received increasing confirmation of tighter monetary conditions, culminating in Friday's decision," Gangan said.

Citing official data, Interfax reported that corporate bank lending grew 0.8% in November, down from 2.3% in October.

Lenders are planning to expand their loan portfolios at a lower level next year, Gangan said.

Putin called for a 'balanced' decision on interest rates

Gangan's comments followed speculation that Russia's central bank had been under pressure from President Vladimir Putin and the business community to hold back on rate hikes.

A day before the central bank's meeting, Putin called for a "balanced" decision about the interest rate.

Russia's top central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, said at a press conference following Friday's interest-rate announcement that she was worried about "excessive cooling" in the country's overheated economy.

Despite the slowdown in bank lending that prompted Russia's central bank to keep rates steady, inflation remains high, reflecting challenges in the country's sanctions-hit economy.

Russia's inflation rate hovered at about 8% in the year to November, compared with the target rate of about 4%, according to government figures.

Gangan told Interfax that full-year inflation was expected to be about 9.6% to 9.8%. Price raises are expected to peak in April 2025 before falling.

"The current price growth we are observing is the result of factors that have accumulated over most of this year," he said.

But the central bank still needs to keep rates steady this time so that the slowdown in bank lending — which leads to economic cooling — would not be "faster than necessary for bringing inflation back to the target," Gangan said.

• Tamara Ponzo Brattoli's retirement plans changed after her son's sudden death in 2018.
• Brattoli took a job at Costco to pay her bills, but she worries about her financial future.
• Many older Americans face financial struggles after losing loved ones, which affects their retirement.

Tamara Ponzo Brattoli, 57, was set on retiring comfortably in her 60s. She raised three children with her husband and worked as a professor at a community college in a Chicago suburb.

However, when her son died suddenly, she said, in addition to the grief, she became much more worried about her retirement.

Her son Anthony was a college student who died after working abroad in the summer before his senior year. His death hit the family hard, and Brattoli struggled to return to work. After taking a leave of absence to grieve and returning for a few semesters, she retired from teaching, took her pension early, and got a job as a warehouse manager at Costco to help her make ends meet.

She's proud of herself for lessening her financial burden and for getting back to work in a role she could handle, even though it was in a completely different industry.

Though she makes enough to live comfortably, she said she's worried her pension won't keep up with inflation, which could make her finances tighter down the line. She wishes she had more resources and guidance to solidify her finances after Anthony's death and had saved more money earlier in life in case tragedy struck.

"I regret not maximizing my options during that awful time," she told Business Insider. "I needed better help to make decisions but did not know where to turn, and I do not feel like my former employer, or my union, or my therapists really knew how to help me."

We want to hear from you. Do you have any regrets in life that you would be comfortable sharing with a reporter? Please fill out this quick form.

Brattoli is one of a few dozen older Americans who told BI through interviews and a voluntary survey in recent months that losing a loved one affected their finances and retirement plans. Some respondents said losing a spouse, a parent, or a child made them panic and make poor financial decisions. Others said they had to quit working or take lower-stress jobs to cope with the pain.

Read a letter Brattoli wrote to her younger self about what she would have done differently or kept the same. Her story continues below.

Raising a family as a college professor

Brattoli grew up in a middle-class family in Sacramento, California, and was the first in her family to graduate from college. She got a master's degree in English and found work teaching at a community college outside Chicago in 1993, where she also ran its study-abroad program.

She and her husband had three children and invested much of their money in them. She taught extra classes to keep their finances stable and fund vacations.

Brattoli supported her children's musical passions, including financially. Anthony played the tuba and enrolled at Brown University. He won the Brown University Orchestra Concerto Competition and had a concentration in English and Slavic studies. In 2018, he got a job in Prague translating Russian legal documents into English.

"I had this job that allowed me to be flexible during the day, but then so I would run around, take the kids to their appointments," Brattoli said. "And then at night, I was up grading papers until really late."

Grieving and working

While in Prague, Anthony suffered a brain hemorrhage and was in a vegetative state for a month. Brattoli traveled there and stayed with Anthony for three weeks, and they flew him back to the US, where he lived the last days of his life. The university's insurance paid for the flight back, though she regretted not investing in good travel insurance as a backup in case Brown didn't cover it in full.

Brattoli went on leave after Anthony's death but returned to work starting in spring 2019 — including remote teaching before and during the pandemic — to pay her bills.

"I was completely incapable of teaching, and I forced myself to get through it for a time, but I could not function," Brattoli said.

She said because of the grief, she did not prioritize long-term financial planning, adding that she didn't know where to turn for help beyond her therapists or employer. She wishes she would have spoken with a financial advisor or sought retirement resources to make her savings go further.

While winding down her teaching career at 54, she took a job at Costco, first as a seasonal clerk packing e-commerce orders, then in an administrative role handling accounts payable and scheduling truck routes. She was promoted to facilities supervisor at a distribution center, which paid about $65,000 annually. She said that she's still financially stable and that her Costco salary allowed her to somewhat comfortably pay her bills.

Her husband, who is a few years older than her, worked after Anthony's death but lost his job during the pandemic. He also pivoted to Costco, working at a warehouse.

Financial pains

Brattoli contributed to her public-school retirement plan, though she said she and her husband didn't save much. She didn't track how much she put into her retirement accounts and said it was cumbersome to increase her contributions. She wishes she had set aside much more of her earnings earlier so interest would compound on them.

In the years after Anthony's death, Brattoli said her grief and lack of direction led to some financial issues. Because she gave up teaching, she cashed out her state pension early and got paid less than if she continued teaching for more years.

Since she has a public pension, a Social Security provision cuts her benefits from her private-sector work.

"I'm now at a penalty, and that'll be for the rest of my life," Brattoli said. "Even though now I'm working for Costco and I'm putting into Social Security, my Social Security is going to be terrible."

She intends to work for Costco until she's 65, when she expects to have enough for retirement, fearing she won't be physically equipped to work there much later. Costco gives her health insurance, and with her children now financially stable adults, she said she could save more for her future, putting much of her earnings into her 401(k). She said her pension would help keep her afloat after retirement.

"I feel uncertain right now because inflation has messed up my pension already," Brattoli said. "I suffered with that because I took my pension, and then inflation jumped up, and it's not like Social Security where it automatically increases based on how much inflation goes up."

Brattoli said despite the pain of the last few years, the decision to work at Costco was the best choice. Her Costco income and pension brought her to about where she'd be if she still taught full-time, and the role helped her rebuild her confidence.

"It gave me a chance to focus on something completely different than teaching," Brattoli wrote in her letter. "Now, I wear steel-toed shoes. I learned how to drive a forklift. I climb into the backs of semi-trailers and onto the roof of the building."

Are you an older American with any life regrets that you would be comfortable sharing with a reporter? Please fill out this quick form.

• Spain has some of the oldest moms, with 11% of women having kids post-40, compared to 4% in the US.
• Financial insecurity and settling down later in life play a notable role.
• But Spain's accessible fertility treatments and excellent public healthcare are also factors.

Monica Cruz-Lemini, a 46-year-old obstetrician living in Spain, had her first child at 44.

While pregnancies after 35 are considered "advanced maternal age," Cruz-Lemini's experience is far from unusual in Spain, where more than 10% of all births involve mothers 40 or older.

"I think there's a growing pool of women in recent years — and I've seen it both professionally and personally — who are a bit like me," Cruz-Lemini told Business Insider.

Spanish moms are among the oldest

According to Eurostat's latest data, Spain had the second-highest average age of women at childbirth in Europe in 2022, at 32.6 years, as well as the second-oldest average age for first-time mothers, at 31.6 years.

Spain also ranked second for the share of births to women aged 40 or older; 11% of live births in the country were to mothers in their fifth decade or beyond.

In comparison, only about 4% of live births in the US were to women over 40, according to data from the US National Center for Health Statistics, compiled by nonprofit group March of Dimes.

(Comprehensive global data isn't readily available, but Ireland came top in the most recent European stats.)

Financial insecurity

Delaying motherhood is a growing trend across Europe and beyond, not just in Spain.

However, Juan García-Velasco, chief scientific officer for IVIRMA Global, which operates a network of fertility clinics, highlights "a combination of factors" that help explain Spain's particularly high ranking.

One key factor, he said, is financial insecurity.

Spain has the highest unemployment and youth unemployment rates in the EU, and García-Velasco said that this, combined with low wages and financial instability, leads many women to wait until they are more financially secure.

Sarah Richards, a Barcelona-born mother of two who had her second child at 40, said that people want to be financially secure and own their own house before starting a family, "so that's going to happen a lot later here than it would in the UK, where salaries certainly are higher."

Property prices in cities and coastal areas also make it harder for many to afford a home, with Spain having one of the highest average ages in Europe for young people leaving the family home — at just over 30.

"You can't buy there, and the rents are just out of control," Richards said. "You either have a very good job, or you have a rich family that can help you and help with childcare."

Fertility treatments

Waiting longer often leads to a growing reliance on treatments like IVF, and Spain is a leader in Europe in IVF success rates, according to the global fertility agency International Fertility Group.

While a like-for-like comparison between Spain and the US isn't available — as different countries and clinics measure success rates differently — Spain remains a popular destination for Americans exploring international fertility treatment options.

García-Velasco said this may be why it may feel less risky for some women in Spain to leave trying for kids until later in life. "As the outcome is good, this reduces the pressure and the fears," he said

IVF is also widely accessible in Spain and is free for women 40 and under, including those who are single or in same-sex relationships.

In comparison, the estimated average cost per IVF cycle in the US is about $12,000, according to the American Society for Reproductive Medicine.

Spain also has more IVF clinics than any other country in the EU, per the European IVF Monitoring Consortium.

"The more facilities that are offered to become a mother later in life, the easier it's going to be," said Pauline Bronkurst, who had her second child this year at the age of 43.

"In our case," Bronkurst added, "both of our babies were conceived through IVF, so that definitely played a role."

Genetic risks

Having kids later in life does increase the risk of genetic conditions.

But Bronkhurst emphasized the importance of Spain's public healthcare system, which was particularly beneficial after her second child was born with a genetic condition.

While getting pregnant at an older age can increase the likelihood of complications, Bronkhurst said that in countries with universal healthcare and a high standard of medical care, the perceived risk of advanced-age pregnancy is significantly lower.

"I think that plays into the whole thing of waiting longer," she told BI.

Slow to settle down

Another major factor contributing to delayed motherhood in Spain is that people are simply settling down later in life.

The average age of first marriage among men in Spain is 36.8, the highest in Europe, while for women it's 34.7, also the highest, according to the latest Eurostat data.

Stephanie Galavodas, who had her son three years ago aged 41, told BI she waited until her 40s to have a child because she was "saying yes to things in life when I didn't have the partner to build a family."

After years of pursuing degrees, traveling, and establishing her career, she eventually met her partner, with whom she had her child.

"I always knew that I would have kids someday," she said, "and so it felt fine to me to kind of go out in the world and experience things instead of rushing to have a child first."

Going it alone

A growing number of Spanish women are also going it alone.

García-Velasco said the fastest-growing group seeking fertility treatment at his clinics in Spain are single mothers who have decided to raise a child on their own.

This trend is not unique to Spain. A 2020 study published in Fertility and Sterility found a significant rise in the number of single women undergoing IVF in the US over the preceding 12 years.

In Spain, García-Velasco said that many single mothers pursuing fertility treatment cite a "lack of adequate partner" as their primary motivation for going solo.

For Cruz-Lemini, the doctor who had her child at 44, this was the reality. "I'm a single mom by choice," she told BI.

Cruz-Lemini was occupied with studies, training, and then work as a doctor, but, she said, "You get to be around 40 years old and then suddenly you realize that it might be your last chance or chances to have a child."

She found a sperm donor and pursued IVF. A little over two years ago, she gave birth to her daughter.

Sometimes, she said, "you have to do it by yourself because you don't have time to get into a relationship."

• Hurt by higher interest rates, commercial real estate should see a modest rebound in 2025.
• Lingering inflation, however, could complicate the recovery by pushing up long-term interest rates.
• Industrial warehouses, a star of the sector, is poised to stand out in 2025.

The commercial property sector has had a bruising few years as rising interest rates pushed down values, complicated refinancing deals for hundreds of billions of dollars of expiring mortgages, and stymied investment.

In the office market, the situation was even more severe as hundreds of millions of square feet of space across the nation face accelerated obsolescence. Employees have embraced hybrid and remote work as a permanent offshoot of the pandemic, sapping demand for lesser quality space.

In recent months, however, the industry has felt relief from three successive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that have shaved a percentage point off the fed funds rate — a benchmark for short-term lending rates. More cuts are expected in 2025. Resilient economic growth, meanwhile, has propelled demand for commercial space, including apartments, warehouses, retail stores, and hotel rooms. Some developers have even grown bullish on top-tier office projects as tenants flock to high end space.

In 2025, commercial real estate experts have signaled cautious optimism that the sector's rebound will continue, while also highlighting the challenges that could stymie growth.

Here are three trends for the industry to watch in 2025:

While the Fed has cut rates, relief hasn't arrived for the majority of loans

Of the roughly $4.7 trillion of total outstanding commercial real estate debt, about two-thirds is tied to long-term interest rates benchmarked against the 10-year Treasury yield, according to an estimate by the Mortgage Bankers Association. After dipping in the third quarter, long-term interest rates have jumped back up to the mid-4% range, close to where rates were before the Fed began cutting and far higher than where the 10-year was in recent years. The 10-year Treasury rate dipped below half a percentage point in 2020, its lowest level ever.

In 2025, observers expect long-term rates to hold steady, even if the Fed continues to trim short-term rates.

"The 10-year Treasury yield, that's really driven less now by anticipation of what the Fed might do and more by long-term expectations about economic growth and inflation and federal budget deficits," Jamie Woodwell, the MBA's head of commercial real estate research, said.

That could continue to complicate commercial real estate sales and refinancing deals.

The MBA projects that $570 billion of commercial real estate loans will mature in 2025, with banks holding about 38% of the overall inventory of outstanding debt in the sector.

Tomasz Piskorski a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, said that 14% of commercial loans overall are tied to distressed assets that are now worth less than their debt and that 43% of commercial real estate loans "may face significant cash flow and refinancing issues." He has warned there could be tens of billions of dollars of potential losses for the banking sector and other lenders.

The real estate services giant CBRE, meanwhile, has forecast a modest 7.5% increase in investment sales activity, predicting about $410 billion of transactions in 2025. More sales would help buyers and sellers discover asset pricing and is considered a positive sign for a market recovery.

Richard Barkham, CBRE's chief economic economist, warned of lingering higher long-term interest rates that could dampen the rebound.

"Over the next four or five years we're likely to get upside shocks in inflation," Barkham said. "That points to an era of interest rates higher for longer."

Incoming Trump administration has generated optimism

Some of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign promises to enact tariffs on foreign goods, pressure the Fed for lower short term interest rates, and deport undocumented immigrants from the labor supply could spur inflation, reigniting problems in the commercial real estate financing market.

Nonetheless, the industry has been largely positive on the incoming administration.

Investors "expect better tax issues, they expect less regulation, they expect some real estate specific stuff like opportunity zones will get a bit of a boost," said Jim Costello, the co-head of real assets research at the data firm MSCI, referencing the opportunity zone program from President Trump's first term in office. Opportunity zones allowed real estate investors the chance to defer and avoid capital gains taxes if they reinvested investment proceeds in property projects in designated zones around the country.

President Trump has also sought to hire real estate executives in his administration, meaning that top officials could have an familiarity with the real estate business and its priorities. Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street billionaire who is also chairman of the large commercial real estate services firm Newmark Group, for instance, has been picked by Trump to lead the Commerce Department.

After a rocky 2024, industrial is still a darling

Industrial warehouse space boomed during the pandemic as American shoppers migrated online, boosting the need for logistics spaces that served e-commerce and also to onshore storage for a disrupted global supply chain.

A record total of roughly a billion square feet of industrial space was absorbed on balance by occupiers in 2022 and 2023, according to Craig Meyer, president of JLL's industrial leasing group in the Americas. That activity was enough to fill a vast pipeline of new space that was being added to the market. In 2022 and 2023, 1.1 billion square feet of new industrial space was delivered, according to JLL — also a record.

In 2024, however, demand could no longer keep pace with surging supply – stalling rental growth and pushing up vacancy.

About 375 million square feet of new space was added to the industrial market in 2024 – the third highest year on record after 2022 and 2023. But only about 111.3 million square feet of space has been absorbed on net, the lowest year of absorption in more than a decade. Vacancy has jumped to 6.8% from 4.9% a year ago. In the second quarter of 2022, vacancy had fallen as low as 3.3%.

Meyer said that the first half of 2024 was the nadir of the dip and expects a resurgent 2025.

"We had a contentious election coming up," Meyer said. "People were uncertain where interest rates were going."

In 2025, Meyer and other experts, including Barkham, CBRE's economist, see a strengthening industrial market as new supply dwindles and demand picks back up.

"The sectors that are big and improving and likely to lead investor interest are multifamily and industrial," Barkham said.

Some 268.9 million square feet of industrial space is presently under construction, according to JLL, the smallest pipeline since 2019. E-commerce, one of the biggest drivers of warehouse demand, continues to grow. According to CBRE, online sales are expected to absorb 30% of consumer spending by the end of the decade, up from 23% today, adding tailwinds to the segment.