• A North Korean soldier was captured by Ukraine, per South Korean intelligence.
• The soldier later died from his injuries, the National Intelligence Service said.
• It comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was trying to hide North Korean losses.

A North Korean soldier captured by Ukrainian forces has died from his injuries, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said on Friday, per Yonhap news agency.

The NIS had earlier confirmed reports that an injured North Korean soldier had been taken prisoner by Ukraine.

"Through real-time information sharing with a friendly nation's intelligence organization, (we) confirmed the capture of a wounded North Korean soldier and plans to thoroughly examine the subsequent development," the NIS said in a statement.

The incident marked the first reported case of a North Korean combatant being taken alive during the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The soldier was reportedly seized on December 26 in Russia's Kursk region, into which Ukraine launched an offensive in August.

It comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this month that Russia was trying to "conceal losses" of North Korean troops fighting against Ukraine.

"After first combats with our warriors, Russians are trying… to literally burn the faces of North Korean soldiers killed in battle," Zelenskyy wrote on X, sharing a video seemingly showing the alleged act.

"There is not a single reason for North Koreans to fight and die for Putin. And even after they do, Russia has only humiliation for them," he continued. "This madness must be stopped—stoped by a reliable and durable peace, as well as Russia's accountability for this cynical war."

Pyongyang reportedly began sending troops to Russia in October, with up to 11,000 thought to have arrived in Kursk so far.

North Korea's elite "Storm" Corps have reportedly been at the forefront of the fighting in the region.

The NIS said more than 100 "Storm" troops had been killed and 1,000 more injured in their first battles for Russia.

The agency reportedly told lawmakers earlier this month that the elite troops — thought to be Pyongyang's best-trained and most heavily indoctrinated — are ill-prepared for drone attacks and the local terrain.

Zelenskyy said in December that preliminary estimates suggested over 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded in Russia's Kursk region.

• President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to retake control of the Panama Canal.
• Trump blasted the "exorbitant" fees charged to US vessels using the canal.
• Panama's president responded on X, saying that "every square meter" of the canal belongs to Panama.

President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to retake control of the Panama Canal as he hit out at what he called the "exorbitant" fees charged to US ships traversing the passage.

Panama charges tariffs for vessels traveling through the iconic waterway, with fees varying by size and purpose.

"The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama by the US," Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding: "This complete 'rip-off' of our Country will immediately stop."

The US transferred control of the canal to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) in 1999 in accordance with the Torrijos-Carter Treaties.

"If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question," Trump continued in a separate post. "To the Officials of Panama, please be guided accordingly!"

Panama President José Raúl Mulino responded in a video statement on X, stating that "every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent zones" belongs to Panama.

The president held up a red book titled "Torrijos Carter Treaty" as he referenced the 1977 agreement that would lead to the dissolution of the Panama Canal Zone and hand over the canal to Panamanians on December 31, 1999.

The roughly 80-kilometer (around 50 miles) canal was officially opened in 1914, offering a new link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

According to the PCA's website, between 13,000 and 14,000 ships use the waterway each year, "connecting 1,920 ports across 170 countries." The United States is the largest user of the canal.

In 2023, a shipping company paid almost $4 million on top of regular fees to get through the Panama Canal following a logjam, Bloomberg reported.

Japan's Eneos Group paid $3.98 million in an auction to jump the queue after a drought caused congestion, the report said.

• Colleen Hoover has thrown her support behind Blake Lively after Lively filed a lawsuit against her costar Justin Baldoni.
• The "It Ends With Us" author said Lively had been "nothing but honest" since they first met.
• Lively sued Baldoni for sexual harassment. Baldoni's attorney said the claims were "categorically false."

Colleen Hoover, the bestselling author of "It Ends with Us," has thrown her support behind Blake Lively after Lively sued her costar, Justin Baldoni, for sexual harassment, retaliation, and coordinating attempts to damage her reputation.

In an Instagram Stories post, Hoover linked out to a New York Times report on the situation and wrote: "@blakelively, you have been nothing but honest, kind, supportive and patient since the day we met."

"Thank you for being exactly the human that you are. Never change. Never wilt," she added, possibly referencing Lively's character Lily Bloom's profession as a florist.

In the complaint, obtained by Business Insider, Lively said she had attended a meeting with Baldoni — who also directed the movie adaptation of Hoover's novel — and producer Jamey Heath during filming to address the "hostile work environment that had nearly derailed production of the Film."

The meeting is said to have resulted in all parties agreeing to a number of stipulations, including "no more showing nude videos or images of women, including the producer's wife," to Lively or her employees.

It also required "no more mention of Mr. Baldoni or Mr. Heath's previous 'pornography addiction' or BL's lack of pornography consumption to BL or to other crew members," the complaint said.

The suit goes on to accuse Baldoni and his team of running a smear campaign against Lively.

Lively faced backlash during the film's promotional tour, with many social media users criticizing her lighthearted marketing approach. Baldoni, on the other hand, received praise for highlighting the serious topics raised in the movie.

Bryan Freedman, an attorney for Baldoni and his company, Wayfarer Studios, said in a statement that the claims made in the complaint were "categorically false" and "intentionally salacious with an intent to publicly hurt and rehash a narrative in the media."

"It is shameful that Ms. Lively and her representatives would make such serious and categorically false accusations against Mr. Baldoni, Wayfarer Studios and its representatives, as yet another desperate attempt to 'fix' her negative reputation, which was garnered from her own remarks and actions during the campaign for the film; interviews and press activities that were observed publicly, in real time and unedited, which allowed for the internet to generate their own views and opinions," the statement said.

Reports in Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter said Baldoni has been dropped by his agency, WME, following Lively's complaint.

Business Insider has contacted Freedman and Wayfarer Studios for comment.

• The US plans to remove a $10 million bounty on HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
• It follows a meeting between US diplomats and the Syrian rebel leader earlier this week.
• Jolani has worked to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West.

The US is set to remove a $10 million bounty on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the opposition group that spearheaded an offensive against Bashar Assad's Syrian government forces.

Barbara Leaf, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, made the announcement in an online briefing on Friday while discussing a diplomatic trip to Damascus where US representatives met with Jolani.

Leaf said the US delegation "welcomed positive messages" from the leader — who now goes by his birthname Ahmed al-Sharaa — and that he assured them that terrorist groups would not be allowed to pose a threat in Syria.

"And so based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years," she said.

Pressed for more information on why the US had decided to lift the bounty, Leaf said it was a "policy decision" that "aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," adding that it would be "a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy's head" while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.

HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations, traces its origins to Al Qaeda.

Jolani cut his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 to form a new group, which became HTS the following year.

He has worked for years to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West and has called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."

While stressing that the US would "judge by deeds" rather than words, Leaf said Jolani appeared "pragmatic" and noted that he had previously issued "moderate statements" on issues such as women's rights and the protection of equal rights for all communities.

The US delegation, which included Roger Carstens, the special envoy for hostage affairs, also used the Damascus trip to explore leads on the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.

Carstens said that they had had "a lot of information coming in" but that it remained unclear whether Tice was alive. "The bottom line is the information that we have right now doesn't confirm either in one way or the other."

• Elon Musk has sparked backlash in Germany after calling for the chancellor to resign and backing the AfD.
• The German health minister said Musk "should not interfere in our politics."
• It comes as right-wing leaders in Europe seize on an attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany.

Elon Musk has stirred controversy in Germany after calling Chancellor Olaf Scholz an "incompetent fool" and backing the country's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

In a post on X, Musk first reshared a video by right-wing influencer Naomi Seibt in which she criticizes Friedrich Merz, one of the leading candidates to become Germany's next chancellor.

"Only the AfD can save Germany," Musk, who is the richest person in the world, wrote alongside the post.

Musk then weighed in on news of an attack on Friday on a Christmas market in the eastern German city of Magdeburg that killed at least five people.

Musk reshared a post purportedly showing an image of the suspect that said the attack was a "DIRECT RESULT of mass unchecked immigration."

"Scholz should resign immediately. Incompetent fool," Musk added in a separate post.

Leading right-wing figures across Europe have seized on the incident to promote anti-immigrant rhetoric and call for tighter border controls.

Musk's comments, which come just two months before Germany is set to hold a snap federal election, have sparked backlash in the country.

Scholz appeared to respond indirectly at a press conference in Berlin, saying, "We have freedom of speech here. That also applies to multimillionaires. Freedom of speech also means that you're able to say things that aren't right and do not contain good political advice," per the Guardian.

Karl Lauterbach, the German health minister, said on X that Musk "should not interfere in our politics, adding that "his platform profits from hate and incitement and radicalizes people."

The AfD party was established in 2013 as an anti-euro party, but it has since focused more on immigration and has been seen as increasingly far-right.

Musk, however, has previously questioned how far-right the party's policies are.

In a post on X in June, he wrote:"Why is there such a negative reaction from some about AfD?"

"They keep saying "far right", but the policies of AfD that I've read about don't sound extremist. Maybe I'm missing something," he added.

The Tesla CEO has shown growing support for right-wing leaders, including Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Nigel Farage, leader of the UK's Reform Party.

Earlier this week, Farage boasted that Musk was "right behind" him and hinted that the tech mogul might financially back his party.

• Trump's return to power comes as Ukraine struggles to stop Russia's advance.
• Trump says he'll move quickly to end the war, but Russia may be disinclined to negotiate now.
• Here are four scenarios for how the war could play out.

With the Russia-Ukraine war nearing its fourth year, attention is turning to President-elect Donald Trump and how his return to power may affect the conflict.

Trump looms as a distressing question mark for Ukraine, which has leaned into personal diplomacy to make its case in the weeks since his election. As a candidate, Trump called the war "a loser" and vowed to end it in 24 hours without saying how he would do so.

The US has provided the bulk of international security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, committing more than $60 billion so far. Drastic cuts or zeroing of this could enable Russia to achieve the decisive breakthrough it has so far been denied.

As both Kyiv and Moscow scramble to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of any changes Trump's administration may bring, Business Insider has taken a look at four ways the war could play out.

A cease-fire deal and frozen lines

The possibility of a temporary halt to the fighting has received renewed attention with Trump's reelection.

Trump, who has pledged to bring the war to a swift end when he returns to office, took to Truth Social on December 8 to call for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he said, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

In November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war, suggested such a deal could be achieved if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukraine could then "get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."

John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told Business Insider that Ukraine was seemingly moving away from its "maximal position" of getting back all its occupied territory but that it would want "credible security guarantees from the West."

However, with Western nations reluctant to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin with binding commitments to Ukraine, the most likely outcome was the war being "frozen" roughly where it is now, he continued, adding that a "settlement is just too ambitious at this stage."

Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 by force before launching a broader invasion in 2022. Putin, furthermore, has repeatedly called Ukraine's independence fictional, and many observers worry a pause of a few years will allow Russia to train more troops and stockpile more weapons ahead of another offensive.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told BI that any peace deal brokered by Trump would likely involve some form of territorial concession.

"It's hard to imagine that it would be stable," Cancian said. "It's easy to imagine another war in a couple of years."

Long-term war

Another possibility is that Russia refuses to compromise and the fighting continues. War experts with the Institute for the Study of War think tank, for example, have repeatedly argued that Russian leaders believe they are winning on the battlefield and are not likely to seriously pursue negotiations while that continues.

In such a scenario, Ukraine would require significant levels of continued Western aid, which could be a hard sell for Kyiv. Both Trump and the vice president-elect, JD Vance, have been openly skeptical of US support for Ukraine under the Biden administration.

It would also put further strain on Ukraine's manpower as well as its economy, which is already facing "intensifying" headwinds, as the International Monetary Fund said in a September update.

While Russia, too, is facing its own economic issues — the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 21% in October in an effort to combat high inflation — some analysts have said Moscow could go for years before it has to confront its overspending.

"For Ukraine, the long war is nothing short of disastrous," James Nixey, the director of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, wrote in February. "The country cannot recruit anything like the numbers Russia can press into service. It also places greater value on human life than its opponent, meaning it inevitably suffers more from a protracted war of attrition."

However, a long war is likely to strain Russia's military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at what may be an unsustainable pace, and it may need another round of mobilization to continue replacing its troop losses.

Russian victory

Putin wanted a swift military victory when his forces launched the full-scale invasion.

Almost three years later, that goal has been well and truly quashed, but Moscow could still claim victory — which would likely mean occupying more of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyy in favor of a deferential head-of-state.

For Kyiv, a worst-case scenario would see its forces' frontlines collapse due to a lack of resources or a shift in international support, Cancian said.

In such an instance, Ukraine would likely be forced into ceding large chunks of territory, with "everything east of" the Dnipro potentially coming under Russian control through either annexation or effective oversight, he added.

Russian forces have been advancing in eastern Ukraine in recent months, straining Ukrainian defenses and compounding Kyiv's much-reported manpower shortage.

While Russia itself continues to suffer high casualties, it has been able to draw on vastly superior numbers while also adding extra recruits from North Korea to support its offensives.

Moscow has also appeared intent on avoiding distractions and keeping its focus on events in Ukraine, putting up little support to help its ally Bashar Assad as his regime collapsed in Syria — despite Russia's important military bases in the country.

In addition, Kyiv is now facing serious uncertainty in the form of Trump's imminent return, with some fearing he could cut aid to the country.

In a recent interview with Time Magazine, the president-elect said he wanted to "reach an agreement" rather than abandon Ukraine, but he added that he strongly disagreed with Biden's decision in November to allow the use of US-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russia, which Kyiv had long coveted.

"I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia," Trump said. "Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse."

Ukrainian victory and Russian retreat

Ukrainians had harbored hope of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets said.

And while Putin's grip on power seems strong, the conflict has exposed some of the largest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries and protests over mobilization.

Russia's government is "authoritarian and it has control over the media, but it's still sensitive to public opinion," Cancian said, adding that it had likely avoided another round of mobilization as it did not want to "stir up domestic opposition," despite needing the manpower.

Washington has also pointed to North Korea's involvement in the war as a sign of the Kremlin's "desperation" and "weakness."

But with Trump's goal of achieving a quick end to the fighting, Russia's continued gains in the east, and Kyiv facing dwindling resources and drooping morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems off the cards for now.

Seth Jones, the president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, previously told BI that as long as Putin is in charge, it would be highly improbable that Russia's forces would retreat entirely. A Russian defeat, however, may threaten Putin's hold on power.

• FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash over a map it showed of Ukraine.
• The map appeared to show Ukraine without Crimea as part of it.
• A spokesperson for Ukraine's Foreign Ministry demanded a public apology from FIFA.

FIFA, soccer's world governing body, is facing backlash after showing a map that appeared to omit Crimea from Ukrainian territory.

The map, which was shown during a 2026 World Cup qualifying draw earlier this week, was designed to show countries that cannot be drawn to play against each other for geopolitical reasons, such as Ukraine and Belarus.

However, the graphic appeared to highlight Ukraine but without Crimea as part of it.

In response, Heorhii Tykhyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote on X: "Are you OK, @FIFAcom?"

"By redrawing international borders in yesterday's broadcast, you not only acted against international law, but also supported Russian propaganda, war crimes, and the crime of aggression against Ukraine," he continued, adding that Ukraine expected "a public apology."

He said they had also "fixed" the map for FIFA and shared another version of it with Crimea highlighted.

In a statement to Business Insider, FIFA said it was "aware of an issue, which affected one of the graphics displayed during the draw and addressed the situation with the federation."

"The segment has been removed," it added.

The Ukrainian Association of Football (UAF) said it had written to FIFA Secretary General Mattias Grafström and UEFA Secretary General Theodore Theodoridis about the matter.

"We are writing to express our deep concern regarding the infographic map of Europe shown during the TV broadcast of the European Qualifiers draw," the letter reads.

"We emphasize that the version of the map presented by FIFA during the global broadcast to a multi-million audience is unacceptable," it continues. "It appears as an inconsistent stance by FIFA and UEFA on this crucial issue, especially in light of the ongoing destructive invasion initiated by Russia against Ukraine in the 21st century, in the heart of Europe."

Business Insider contacted the UAF for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long vowed to end Russia's occupation of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.

The peninsula — the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet — holds great strategic importance for the Kremlin, and it has been a major target for Kyiv since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.

The 2026 World Cup is set to take place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Ukraine is in qualifying group D, where it is set to face off against Iceland, Azerbaijan, and the winners of the France vs. Croatia Nations League quarter-final.

FIFA this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup.

• A man from Northern Ireland looks set to spend Christmas in the UAE following his arrest.
• Authorities in Abu Dhabi arrested Craig Ballentine after he posted a negative Google review about his former UAE employer.
• Ballentine's family said the situation is "a living nightmare."

A man from Northern Ireland who was arrested after posting a negative review about his former employer in Dubai looks set to spend Christmas in the United Arab Emirates.

Craig Ballentine was arrested in Abu Dhabi's airport in October over a negative Google review he posted about his former workplace — a dog grooming salon in Dubai, according to Radha Stirling, an advocate who helps foreigners navigate legal trouble in the UAE.

Ballentine spent about six months working at the salon in 2023. He said he needed time off due to illness and presented his employer with medical certificates as proof of his condition.

But the employer reported him as "absconded" with UAE authorities after he missed work, and he was hit with a travel ban.

After getting the ban lifted, Ballentine returned to Northern Ireland, where he wrote a Google review detailing the issues with his former employer.

He was arrested after returning to the UAE for a holiday and now faces charges of slander.

Ballentine, who said he had paid a fine and was given a one-month social media ban, had hoped to get his travel ban lifted and return to Northern Ireland ahead of Christmas.

But he told the BBC that while on the way to a police station to get the ban lifted, he was told authorities wanted to appeal his case and had set a court date for February.

"While I was in the middle of the transit going there, I got the email that the court was not happy and they wanted to appeal again," he said. "I called friends and family and couldn't stop crying, because you're holding on to those emotions, you're just trying to focus on 'let's get out of here.'"

A GoFundMe set up by Ballentine's family has raised nearly $2,500 to help with his legal fees.

"What started out as a holiday to catch up with friends for Craig has turned out to be a living nightmare," the family says on the page.

"At present legal fees are crippling and any money raised will go to help clearing these costs," they added.

Ballentine has also appealed to politicians to support his case with the help of Radha Stirling, a representative from the campaign group "Detained in Dubai."

"The amount of support Craig has is quite incredible," Stirling said. "Charging someone for an online review is something everyone can imagine happening to them. We've received an influx of worried tourists contacting us to check their police status in Dubai and it's certainly a good idea."

Stirling has helped several tourists held up in the country on exaggerated charges and forced to pay costly fees as a resolution. She previously told Business Insider that it's relatively easy to file a complaint that can prevent someone from leaving the country.

"There's been a lot of cases in the past where people have been accused of road rage or flipping the middle finger and that kind of thing, even when they haven't," Stirling previously told BI. "Then someone goes down to the police station, and whatever they say is automatically believed. They don't need evidence."

In one case Stirling worked on, a female college student lightly nudged an airport security officer during a security screening search. They accused her of assault, and she was unable to leave the nation for months.

In another case, a woman was detained after she was accused of screaming, which her accusers said violated a vague law criminalizing "offensive behavior" like rudeness or swearing. She paid $1,000 to have the travel ban that prevented her from leaving lifted, though her accusers initially demanded $10,000.

"It's actually culturally widespread, and the police haven't done anything to clamp down on that sort of extortion," Stirling previously told BI.

• A series of NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen F-35 and Rafale jets called into action.
• French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian IL-18 aircraft off Estonia's coast on Friday.
• Dutch F-35s intercepted three Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

A series of recent NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen Dutch and French fighter jets called into action to intercept Russian aircraft.

Two French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian Ilyushin Il-18 airliner off the coast of Estonia on Friday, the General Staff of the French Armed Forces said in a post on X.

NATO Air Command said the mission was the Rafale's first scramble since it began an air policing mission based out of Šiauliai, Lithuania.

It comes after Dutch F-35 fighter jets intercepted a number of Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

The Dutch defense ministry said two F-35s stationed in Estonia were scrambled after three Russian planes — an Antonov An-72, a Su-24, and an Ilyushin Il-20 — were identified in the region.

Dutch F-35s have been keeping a watch over NATO airspace on the alliance's eastern flank since the start of December, the ministry said.

It's not the first time such an incident has occurred in recent months.

Norwegian F-35s were called into action in November in response to Russian aircraft "not adhering to international norms" off the coast of Norway, NATO's Air Command said at the time.

Italy's air force also intercepted a Russian Coot-A plane flying over the Baltic Sea on the same day.

The Rafale

The Dassault Rafale is a French twin-jet fighter aircraft that can operate from both an aircraft carrier and a land base.

It entered service with the French Navy in 2004 and with the French Air Force in 2006.

It is used to carry out a variety of missions, including air policing, deep strikes, and reconnaissance, according to the manufacturer.

The F-35

The F-35, which is billed as the "most advanced fighter jet in the world" by manufacturer Lockheed Martin, has faced criticism from Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO said on X in late November that the jet's design "was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people."

"This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes," Musk wrote, adding: "And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed."

Some reports have suggested that Musk may be eyeing the F-35 program, and possibly other fighter jets, for potential spending cuts through his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.

Although he would likely face an uphill battle to do so, as Business Insider previously reported.

• Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government.
• Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years.
• Here's why Syria is so important for both Moscow and Tehran.

Russia has been carrying out airstrikes on Syrian rebel fighters who are advancing through the country as part of an offensive that has seen them seize control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities.

The surprise offensive, led by Islamist militants from the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, marks the most significant escalation in the Syrian civil war in years — and the outcome has serious implications for both Russia and Iran.

Russia's gateway to the Mediterranean

Syria holds strategic importance for Moscow and Tehran, which have both supported Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled regime.

For Russia, which operates two major military bases in the country — the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base — Syria offers a key foothold in the region, giving its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a launching pad for operations in Africa.

Russia has sought to extend its influence across the Middle East and Africa in recent years as a counterweight to the US, forging closer ties with key Middle Eastern players like Iran and Saudi Arabia and reportedly providing African governments with security assistance through the Wagner mercenary group.

Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose a Russia-friendly government in Syria for fear of losing the airbase and warm water port crucial to maintaining its influence in the region.

"It's used that port and the base as a launching pad to move into Africa," Hall said. "At one point, there were at least 30 Russian warships in the Mediterranean, whereas just a few years prior, there were none."

Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, said losing Syria would be "a big deal for Russia."

"Most of its plans in the Sahel and Libya revolve around supporting Russia's access to the Mediterranean, without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua wrote on X.

Putin's support for Assad helped boost his popularity in Africa, Riboua continued, adding that losing Syria would "make Putin not just look weak, but look unreliable to many African countries that rely today on Wagner."

Iran's network of proxies

Syria also provides Iran with access to the Mediterranean via a land corridor that extends from Tehran through to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, connecting its proxies in the region.

"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Hall said. "It now has this unimpeded route from Tehran all the way to Lebanon."

Syria is particularly important for Iran's ability to support the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which for over a year has been embroiled in conflict with Israel. Israel has recently thrown this top Iranian ally into disarray, killing its longtime leader and wounding thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. A cease-fire agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah last week.

"Iran is deeply invested in Syria with dozens of military bases and other facilities because the country is critical to Tehran's support for Hezbollah," wrote Steven Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Syria provides Tehran with a place to manufacture weapons and a route to transport them, as well as a command post for Iranian commanders who work with Hezbollah, Cook said.

But Israeli strikes on the militant group have impacted Iran's corridor and put its position in the region under pressure.

Tehran may, therefore, see the Syrian conflict as a way to reimpose itself in the region, Riboua said in another post on X.

"Weakened in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran now views the conflict in Syria as an opportunity to reassert its influence by joining the Assad regime against its opposition," Riboua said. "Tehran likely sees this renewed involvement as a chance to restore its legitimacy and strengthen its control over its proxies."

Latest conflict is 'no surprise'

Russian ties with Syria trace back to the Cold War-era when Moscow supplied arms to the country.

The two countries grew closer under the leadership of Putin and Assad, as the former sought to expand and defend Russian interests in the Middle East.

In 2015, this resulted in Russia directly intervening in the country's civil war, which began in 2011, to prop up Assad.

Over the following years, Moscow steadily built up its military presence in Syria, and by 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that more than 63,000 Russian troops had "received combat experience" in the country.

But following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow's Syrian operations were put on the back burner, and it reportedly redeployed some troops, mercenaries, and military equipment from Syria to Ukraine.

Iran and Syria, meanwhile, have had strong relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Iranian troops are also reported to have fought alongside Syrian government forces in 2015.

But like Russia, Iran's priorities have shifted in recent months, with Tehran locked with Israel in a series of escalating long-range strikes.

For the US, that meant the latest offensive seemingly came as no great shock.

Speaking to NBC News, national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that Assad's three key backers, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, had all "been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere."

"So it's no surprise that you see actors in Syria, including the rebels, try to take advantage of that," he added.

For Russia and Iran, the fall of Aleppo will nevertheless come as a humiliating blow, Hall said.

It shows "how weak their ally is, even after 13 years of war," she added.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested a way the "hot phase" of the war in Ukraine could end.
• It would include unoccupied parts of Ukraine coming "under the NATO umbrella."
• Zelenskyy has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that the "hot phase" of the Russia-Ukraine war could end if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

In an interview with Sky News' chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay published on Friday, Zelenskyy said: "If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control."

"That's what we need to do fast. And then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically," he said, adding that no such offer had been made.

But Zelenskyy stressed that NATO membership would need to be offered to Ukraine as a whole, within its internationally recognized borders.

"You can't give invitation to just one part of a country," he said. "Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine is only that territory of Ukraine, and the other one is Russia."

He also said any cease-fire would need to guarantee that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not come back to try to take further Ukrainian land, which he said would happen if NATO did not "immediately" cover the parts of Ukraine that would remain under Kyiv's control in the proposed plan.

Zelenskyy has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war.

In October, he outlined a victory plan for the war that included a refusal to concede territory to Russia and an invitation to join NATO, which he called "the first and very important point."

Earlier in the year, Zelenskyy also dismissed Donald Trump's reported secret plan to end the war by ceding territory to Russia as "primitive."

"If the deal is that we just give up our territories, and that's the idea behind it, then it's a very primitive idea," Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axel Springer media outlets. "I think if he really has a formula and an approach on how to end the war quickly. I need very strong arguments. I don't need a fantastic idea. I need a real idea because people's lives are at stake."

Some reports have suggested that a "West German model" has been discussed as a means of offering NATO membership to Ukraine.

Such a plan could see NATO membership offered to a divided country.

No formal proposal has been made.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has provided more details on the "Oreshnik" missile.
• The hypersonic ballistic missile was first used by Russia in Ukraine in November.
• Putin said the missile's destructive elements hit temperatures of more than 7,000 degrees Fahrenheit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin shared more details on Russia's "Oreshnik" missile during a state visit to Kazakhstan.

Russia first used the Oreshnik missile in Ukraine last week, striking a munitions factory in Dnipro.

Putin said at the time that his forces had tested "a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile," named the Oreshnik, in response to Ukraine's use of US and UK-supplied long-range weapons.

Speaking to the media in Kazakhstan on Thursday, Putin detailed some more of the Oreshnik's characteristics.

Putin called the missile a "high-precision and high-power weapon" and said that it was "not equipped with a nuclear explosive device, thus they do not cause environmental contamination."

He added that the destructive elements inside the missile's warheads hit temperatures of over 4,000 degrees Celsius (more than 7,000 degrees Fahrenheit).

"The damage is substantial," he continued. "Everything at the centre is reduced to ash, breaking down into its elemental components, and objects located at a depth of three or four, possibly even more, floors below are affected."

Putin also reiterated that the Oreshnik could be as powerful as a nuclear strike if multiple were fired at once.

The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) said on Friday that the Oreshnik was likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile — a solid-fueled, road-mobile ballistic missile.

The ministry said that the missile's payload observed in the strike on Dnipro was "six groups of six warheads," which it said travel at hypersonic speeds before impact.

The missile's potential range is particularly important and has already attracted a great deal of expert commentary.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Missile Defense Project lists the Rubezh RS-26 as having a range of up to 5,800 km (around 3,600 miles), meaning it could strike targets across Europe and the UK.

Former Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan said Russia's use of a missile with such a potential range was a clear message to the West, writing on X: "Putin isn't only messaging Washington D.C. here."

"This is a message to Europe, not only about their support for Ukraine, but also about Russia's capacity and willingness to influence policy related to defence and security well beyond Ukraine," he said.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on debt forgiveness for certain recruits on Saturday.
• It allows for up to $96,000 in debt forgiveness for those who sign a minimum one-year contract to fight in Ukraine.
• It comes amid soaring Russian combat losses.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing debt forgiveness for certain troops who sign up to fight in Ukraine.

Putin on Saturday signed off on legislation that, from December 1, allows recruits who sign a minimum one-year contract to fight in the war forgiveness of up to 10 million rubles of debt arrears (around $96,000), Russia's Interfax news agency reported.

The legislation applies where debt collection proceedings were opened before December 1, 2024, the report says.

Russia's State Duma approved the bill earlier this week.

The new law, which also extends to the spouses of recruits, comes amid mounting Russian combat losses in Ukraine.

Responding to the news on X, Carl Bildt, cochair of the European Council on Foreign Relations Council and a former prime minister of Sweden, said that the move showed Russia's attempts to replenish its losses were evidently becoming "more and more difficult."

"In addition to huge lump sum of money offered there is now also debt write off not only for those enrolling but also for their families. It tells," he wrote.

As Bildt alluded to, it would not be the first time Russia has attempted to use financial incentives to increase its troop numbers.

In July, Russia began offering bonuses of $22,000 to military recruits in Moscow.

The UK's Chief of Defence Staff, Tony Radakin, said earlier this month that Russia had suffered a daily average of more than 1,500 killed or injured troops in October, its worth month of the conflict so far.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in late October that Russian forces had suffered more than 600,000 wounded or killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In a post on X on Saturday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense shared figures from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that put Russian combat losses since the start of the war at more than 729,000.

Russian forces were somewhat bolstered by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops in October.

The latest legislation follows President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with US-provided long-range missiles.

The US's major policy shift comes as Biden scrambles to provide Ukraine with increased support ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in January.

Ukraine also reportedly fired British-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time this week.

• Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs has fined five budget airlines a total of 179 million euros ($187 million).
• The fines affect Ryanair, Vueling, easyJet, Norwegian, and Volotea.
• The ministry accused the airlines of "abusive practices" including charging extra carry-on fees.

Airlines are fuming over a decision by Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs to fine budget carriers for what it called "abusive practices" such as charging extra carry-on luggage fees.

The fines, which affect Ryanair, Vueling, easyJet, Norwegian, and Volotea, total 179 million euros (around $187 million).

Ryanair faces the largest fine, at around 107.8 million euros ($112.3 million). Vueling was given a fine of 39.3 million euros ($40.9 million), easyJet 29.1 million euros ($30.3 million), Norwegian 1.6 million euros ($1.7 million), and Volotea 1.2 million euros ($1.3 million).

Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs said the fines had been calculated based on the "illicit profit" obtained by each airline from the sanctioned practices, which included charging extra fees for carry-on luggage and for reserving a seat near a dependent or minor.

It also criticized the carriers for a number of other alleged issues, including not allowing cash payments at Spanish airports and requiring passengers to pay "disproportionate" fees to print boarding passes at airports.

The ministry added that the airlines should cease carrying out the named practices.

The decision has led to significant pushback in the industry.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has condemned the move, saying it undermined freedom of pricing.

Willie Walsh, IATA's director general, called it "a slap in the face of travelers who want choice."

"Prohibiting all airlines from charging for cabin bags means that the cost will be automatically priced into all tickets," Walsh said.

In a statement to Business Insider, an easyJet spokesperson said the low-cost carrier would appeal the decision and found the proposed sanctions "outrageous."

"All of our customers can bring a small cabin bag for free which gives them the flexibility to only pay for what they want to," they added.

A Norwegian spokesperson said the company also strongly disagreed with the decision and that it would follow up with Spanish and EU authorities.

"Norwegian is committed to providing safe, affordable travel, and our baggage policy reflects that," they said.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary labeled the fines "illegal and baseless," adding that they "would destroy the ability of low-cost airlines to pass on cost savings to consumers via lower fares."

The company said it had instructed lawyers to immediately appeal the baggage fines.

Vueling referred further requests for comment to Spain's Association of Airlines (ALA). The ALA called the sanction for cabin luggage fees "manifestly illegal."

Javier Gándara, ALA's president, said: "The Consumer Affairs Ministry's resolution, if implemented, would cause irreparable harm to passengers by infringing on their freedom to customise their travel according to their needs, forcing them to pay for services they may not require."

Volotea did not immediately reply to a request for comment from BI.

The airlines have two months to appeal the decision, the ministry said.

• Elon Musk teased the idea of buying the TV network MSNBC.
• "How much does it cost?" Musk wrote on X.
• Comcast plans to spin off some of its cable channels, including MSNBC.

Elon Musk has teased the idea of buying the liberal TV network MSNBC.

Musk floated the idea on social media, responding to a post on X shared by Donald Trump Jr. that said Comcast was putting the network up for sale.

"Hey @elonmusk I have the funniest idea ever!!!" Trump Jr. wrote alongside the post.

"How much does it cost?" Musk replied.

Musk, the world's richest person, later added: "The most entertaining outcome, especially if ironic, is most likely," accompanied by a laughing emoji.

While he may have been joking, it's worth remembering that Musk made a similar comment years before acquiring X (then Twitter) in 2022.

In 2017, Musk took to the platform to declare his "love" for Twitter, to which someone replied: "You should buy it then."

"How much is it?" Musk asked.

While there's no formal indication that Musk intends to go ahead with an offer for MSNBC, the idea has already sparked some concerns.

Thomas Whalen, an associate professor of social sciences at Boston University, told The Telegraph that Musk's idea was "a bombshell on the broadcasting landscape."

"Musk's move seems like a hostile takeover and it bodes badly for the media moving forward," Whalen said. "I think how Vladimir Putin and oligarchs have been buying the free media in Russia."

It follows Comcast's announcement earlier this week that it would be spinning off some of its cable television networks, including MSNBC, into a separate company.

The new company, called "SpinCo," will provide news, sports, and entertainment content, Comcast said in a press release.

President-elect Donald Trump has dished out some strong criticism of MSNBC in the past, and the impending Trump era is adding to internal fears over the network's future.

In a Truth Social post in 2023, Trump called the network "the world's biggest political contribution to the Radical Left Democrats" and "nothing but a 24 hour hit job on Donald J. Trump."

"Our so-called 'government' should come down hard on them and make them pay for their illegal political activity," he wrote.

Business Insider has contacted MSNBC for comment.

• A drone maker received $74 million in a funding round involving NATO.
• Tekever's gear has been used in Ukraine, a vast proving ground for drone warfare.
• Its drones are not weapons, focusing on surveillance and intelligence.

A dronemaking startup whose equipment is being used by the Ukrainian military got a cash injection from NATO.

Tekever, a Portuguese firm, raised $74 million from a group of investors, including NATO's Innovation Fund.

The company has said its equipment is being used in Ukraine though not which of its models were sent.

Though its equipment has military uses, Tekever doesn't produce weapons: the drones are for intelligence-gathering.

The war in Ukraine has become a proving ground for drone warfare. Drones are used for surveillance, to carry light supplies, for targeting assistance, and as weapons.

The battlefield features drones from around the world, spanning cheap consumer drones, high-end military hardware, and improvised systems.

The UK Ministry of Defence posted an image of Tekever's AR3 drone in March while announcing a support package for Ukraine — perhaps giving a hint at what was sent.

Tekever's CEO, Ricardo Mendes, said an interview with City A.M. in May that the firm "started working with Ukrainian forces some time ago, after the war started."

Long range, resistant to jamming

"All our products are very prepared to fly to long distances, to cover fast areas, and do surveillance," Mendes said. "And that's basically the primary mission that our drones are doing in Ukraine."

"They're very resilient," said Mendes of the systems. "So they are very autonomous. They can fly even in situations where you don't have a GPS signal, or you don't have comms, and so they're very resistant to fly in very denied environments where there's jamming and all those military types of environments."

Tekever advertises the AR3 as launchable either from ships or on land. Ukraine doesn't have a conventional navy, so it would likely not be able to use the ship-borne functionality.

The company says it can fly for 16 hours, with a range of 62 miles. It weighs 55 pounds and has a wingspan of 11 feet.

Mothership

The company is working on its largest drone yet, the ARX, which can carry swarms of smaller drones to extend operational capabilities. Mendes calls this the "holy grail of surveillance," combining speed, payload capacity, and adaptability.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine since early 2022 has redefined drone warfare.

The key role of drones is fuelling a drone arms race between Russia and Ukraine, as well as their allies.

Business Insider reported in September that a command in Ukraine predicted that AI advances would lead to drone warfare becoming "truly unmanned" within months.

Tekever's drones have also been used by the British government to track migrant smugglers in the English Channel.

Tekever did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for an interview.