Barbara Leaf, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, made the announcement in an online briefing on Friday while discussing a diplomatic trip to Damascus where US representatives met with Jolani.
Leaf said the US delegation "welcomed positive messages" from the leader β who now goes by his birthname Ahmed al-Sharaa β and that he assured them that terrorist groups would not be allowed to pose a threat in Syria.
"And so based on our discussion, I told him we would not be pursuing the Rewards for Justice reward offer that has been in effect for some years," she said.
Pressed for more information on why the US had decided to lift the bounty, Leaf said it was a "policy decision" that "aligned with the fact that we are beginning a discussion with HTS," adding that it would be "a little incoherent then to have a bounty on the guy's head" while sitting down for discussions on regional interests.
HTS, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both the US and the United Nations, traces its origins to Al Qaeda.
Jolani cut his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 to form a new group, which became HTS the following year.
He has worked for years to portray himself as a more moderate leader to the West and has called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."
While stressing that the US would "judge by deeds" rather than words, Leaf said Jolani appeared "pragmatic" and noted that he had previously issued "moderate statements" on issues such as women's rights and the protection of equal rights for all communities.
The US delegation, which included Roger Carstens, the special envoy for hostage affairs, also used the Damascus trip to explore leads on the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who disappeared in Syria in 2012.
Carstens said that they had had "a lot of information coming in" but that it remained unclear whether Tice was alive. "The bottom line is the information that we have right now doesn't confirm either in one way or the other."
A banner showing Syrian President Bashar Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Damascus in 2022.
LOUAI BESHARA / AFP
Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.
During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.
But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria β where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.
Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.
It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.
"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.
He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."
The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt β and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.
Russia's slow response to Syria
Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.
The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.
Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.
In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.
Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.
Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.
"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.
What has Russia lost?
The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.
Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.
Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.
In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.
And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.
"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.
Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.
Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."
He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.
But when it comes to countries bordering Russia β such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus β he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.
Putin stays silent
Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.
Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.
"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.
Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.
A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.
"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him β and fast."
The Israeli Air Force carried out about 480 strikes targeting most of the country's strategic weapon stockpiles left behind after rebels forced Syrian leader Bashar Assad to flee the country.
About 350 of the strikes were crewed aircraft targeting Syrian military assets, including aircraft, ammunition depots, storage facilities, and missile and radar systems. The Israeli Navy also destroyed several military vessels docked at two Syrian naval ports. The Israeli army seized strategic positions in the Golan Heights abandoned by Syrian troops.
Israeli officials said the extensive strikes on Syria were intended to prevent the Assad government's military infrastructure and weapons from being used by extremists and potential foes. Israel is exploiting the Assad regime's fall to enhance its security in the long term as it uses blistering force to cripple Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The fall of Assad
An opposition fighter celebrated as rebels burn down a military court in Damascus, Syria.
Hussein Malla/AP
After a decadeslong dictatorship, rebel forces seized control of the Syrian capital of Damascus over the weekend, forcing Assad to relinquish power and flee the country.
"We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," Hassan Abdul-Ghani, commander of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, wrote in a post on social media. "To the displaced people around the world, free Syria awaits you."
Former Syrian prime minister Ghazi al-Jalali remained in the country after the collapse of the Assad regime, saying the government is willing to cooperate and support "any leadership chosen by the Syrian people."
Creating a 'sterile defense zone'
A boy carried an unexploded Rocket Propelled Grenade (RPG) at the site of the Israeli airstrike that targeted Syrian weapon shipments.
DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images
While Israel supported ousting Assad, a staunch ally of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the situation in Syria is still "fraught with significant dangers" from the extremists now governing the country.
In the days after the dayslong rebel offensive ousted the Syrian dictator, Israel launched hundreds of strikes targeting Syrian military assets over 48 hours to prevent them "from falling into the hands of terrorist elements." HTS publicly split with the Al Qaeda affiliate from which it formed, but US officials believe it may still have links to Al Qaeda leaders.
"We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security," Netanyahu said.
"I authorized the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists," he said, adding that Israel "would like to form relations with the new regime in Syria."
The IDF said the strikes were part of a larger-scale mission known as Operation Bashan Arrow, intended to create a "sterile defense zone" by neutralizing potential threats from the neighboring country.
Sinking Syrian warships
Smoke billows around the charred hull of a destroyed Syrian naval ship after Israeli forces attacked Latakia port.
AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images
Israeli forces attacked key Syrian naval facilities in the port cities of Al-Bayda and Latakia late Tuesday, where more than a dozen Syrian naval vessels were docked.
Photos of the decimated port showed half-submerged Syrian warships. Some of the damaged vessels were Osa-class missile boats, Soviet-era vessels whose 30mm turrets and mounted missile launchers could be seen in the wreckage.
The Syrian navy, the smallest branch of the country's armed forces, operated over a dozen of the high-speed β albeit outdated β vessels developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s.
Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz said Israeli Navy missile ships "destroyed Syria's navy overnight and with great success." It's not clear how many Syrian vessels were destroyed by Israeli warships in the overnight attack.
Satellite images of Latakia, a former stronghold of Assad, showed the charred wreckage of the naval ships. The IDF wrote in a post on X that "dozens of sea-to-sea missiles" with "significant explosive payloads" were also destroyed.
Destroying Syrian military aircraft
Military aircraft were damaged by Israeli airstrikes at Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, Syria.
Bekir Kasim /Anadolu via Getty Images
The IAF carried out an airstrike on the Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, once a key stronghold of the Assad regime's air force.
At least three major Syrian army air bases were attacked by Israeli warplanes, damaging dozens of helicopters and fighter jets, The Times of Israel reported. Locals living near the bases said they heard several explosions after the Israeli strikes appeared to ignite the ammunition stored there, the Associated Press reported.
Dismantling Syrian military infrastructure
An air defense radar was set ablaze after Israeli airstrikes target Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, Syria.
Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images
In addition to decimating Syria's aerial and naval fleet, the IDF said it carried out strikes on 130 military assets, such as firing positions, antiaircraft batteries, missile and radar systems, and weapons production sites.
Crippling Syria's chemical weapons infrastructure
A military research center affiliated with the Syrian defense ministry was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike.
OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images
Israeli forces also destroyed the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus, a key facility thought to be testing and operating the country's covert chemical and biological weapons programs under the Assad regime.
The Barzeh facility was previously bombarded in 2018 by US, UK, and French forces in response to a poison sarin gas attack in Douma, Syria. The US found Assad's government responsible for the April 2018 chemical warfare attack that killed at least 40 people and injured over 100.
However, the head of the center's polymers department told Reuters at the time that the facility, now reduced to rubble, was used to research medicinal components that couldn't be imported, such as anti-venom and cancer treatments.
'Changing the face of the Middle East'
Israeli military forces crossed the fence from the buffer zone with Syria in Golan Heights.
JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images
The fall of the Syrian regime weakens Iran's regional influence and could pose logistical and strategic challenges to Iran's regional proxies like the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
"The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran," Netanyahu said during a Monday press conference. "The axis has not yet disappeared, but as I promised β we are changing the face of the Middle East."
Despite the widespread strikes across Syria, Israeli military officials said the country's armed forces were operating beyond the Israeli-occupied demilitarized buffer zone in Golan Heights but not toward the Syrian capital.
"IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said at a briefing. "We are not involved in what's happening in Syria internally, we are not a side in this conflict, and we do not have any interest other than protecting our borders and the security of our citizens."
Katz, Israel's defense minister, said the country was advancing beyond Golan Heights to impose a "security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures" in southern Syria.
"With regard to what will be in the future, I'm not a prophet," Katz said. "It is important right now to take all necessary steps in the context of the security of Israel."
Syrian naval ships destroyed during an overnight Israeli attack on the port city of Latakia.
AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images
Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syria since Bashar Assad's ouster.
Its forces have also advanced into the Golan Heights, a previously demilitarized zone in southwestern Syria.
Israel's defense minister said it intended to create a "defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria."
Israel says it has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syria in the days since Bashar Assad's regime collapsed.
On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said it had "struck most of the strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria" in 48 hours as part of a push to stop the weapons "falling into the hands of terrorist elements."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday welcomed the toppling of Assad but said the moment is "fraught with significant dangers."
Assad's downfall followed a surprise rebel offensive led by the Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which traces its roots to Al-Qaeda.
Per Tuesday's IDF statement, the Israeli military had conducted strikes on targets including antiaircraft batteries, Syrian Air Force airfields, and weapons production sites.
It said the strikes took out "numerous" strategic assets, including cruise and Scud missiles, tanks, radars, and attack helicopters.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which gathers data from on-the-ground sources in Syria, said on Tuesday that it had documented nearly 310 Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory since Assad's government collapsed on December 8.
The Israeli navy also hit two ports, one in Al-Bayda and one in Latakia, the IDF said.
The IDF did not say how many ships were struck, but Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the mission had been a "great success" and that the navy had destroyed the Syrian fleet overnight, CNN reported.
A still from a video shared by Israel Defense Forces.
Israel Defense Forces
The IDF declined to clarify what proportion of Syria's military capability had been taken out when approached by Business Insider for comment.
Katz said that Israel intended to create a "sterile defense zone free of weapons and terrorist threats in southern Syria," adding that it's "in order to prevent terrorism in Syria from taking root," per The Guardian's translation.
The US and Turkey have also been reported to be carrying out airstrikes in Syria since Assad's fall.
Washington has targeted ISIS camps and operatives in Syria with precision strikes, President Joe Biden saidon Sunday.
Jonathan Lord, a former political-military analyst at the Pentagon, previously told Business Insider the US military was hitting as many targets as possible as it was "rightly worried that ISIS could slip through the cracks in the chaos."
For its part, Ankara has reportedly launched a drone strike on a military site in an area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Force, which it views as a terror group.
Troops on the ground
The strikes come as Netanyahu announced that he had sent forces into the Golan Heights, a formerly demilitarized buffer zone in southwestern Syria.
In a video address on Sunday, Netanyahu described this as a "temporary defensive position" designed "to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel."
Israel has denied reports that its forces have advanced beyond the buffer zone.
An anonymous Syrian source previously told Reuters that troops had reached Qatana, a town close to the Syrian capital Damascus.
Business Insider could not independently confirm the report. The IDF declined to comment.
Israeli tanks in the Golan Heights.
AP Photo/Matias Delacroix
Several Arab countries have criticized the move into the Golan Heights.
Egypt's foreign ministry said on Monday that it constituted "an exploitation of the state of fluidity and vacuum in Syria to occupy more Syrian territories," the Egypt Independent reported.
The Arab League said that Israel was "taking advantage of the developments in the internal situation in Syria," per CNN.
Dujarric said that peacekeepers at the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force had told Israel that such actions would violate the 1974 disengagement agreement and that there should be no military forces or activities in the area.
Netanyahu said that the agreement had "collapsed" and that "the Syrian army abandoned its positions."
Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to Syrian rebel forces, The Washington Post reported.
Groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Bashar Assad's decades-old rule on Sunday.
The Ukrainian aid played a modest role in toppling him, Western intel sources told the outlet.
Ukrainian intelligence supplied Syrian rebels with about 150 drones and 20 drone operators last month, shortly before the offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, The Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities.
Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives as part of efforts to weaken Russia and its Syrian allies in the region, sources familiar with Ukraine's operations abroad told the Post.
Business Insider was unable to independently verify the report.
The military aid played a modest role in ousting Assad, Western intelligence sources told the outlet.
On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Assad after a lightning two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and ended Assad's 24-year rule.
The Post's report would be in keeping with Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's influence abroad.
Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.
A source within Ukraine's military intelligence agency told the outlet in June that since the start of the year, Ukrainian operatives had supported Syrian rebels in inflicting "numerous" strikes on Russian military facilities in the region.
In September, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Ukrainian intelligence emissaries in Idlib, in Syria's northwest, were conducting "new dirty operations" and recruiting rebel fighters there.
Last month, Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence was arming "terrorists" in Idlib and that Ukrainian specialists were present there.
Ukraine's intelligence services didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.
Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that if Ukraine is confirmed to have sent drones and drone operators to Syria, it would be surprising given how "problematic" the situation is in eastern Ukraine.
"I am not sure Ukraine can gain a lot by engaging in these types of operations," Libman said. "Rather, it will simply waste resources it needs to fight the war on Ukrainian soil itself."
The collapse of Assad, however, could jeopardize Russia's military footprint in Syria, where it could lose control over the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.
Russia has used those bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.
Satellite images taken earlier this week by Maxar Technologies, obtained by BI, show Russian aircraft still present at Hmeimim, but Russian warships no longer present at Tartus.
Russian forces at Khmeimim air base, pictured here in a 2017 photo with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, are likely still maintaining a presence in Syria.
Anadolu/Getty Images
Russia hasn't mass-evacuated troops and gear out of its key bases in Syria.
A senior analyst said the signs would be clear β such a retreat would be difficult to hide.
Russia said it's trying to work out a deal for its bases with the new Syrian government.
The Russian military is still stationed at its Syrian bases after the fall of Bashar Assad's government, and analysts say an evacuation will be easy to spot.
The Kremlin has two major facilities in the country that were hosted by Assad β the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base β which are crucial to Russian access to the Mediterranean and Africa.
According to Russian state media, rebel forces now control the Latakia province, where these bases are located.
With Moscow's long-term access to those bases now under question, satellite images show that its warships have vacated Tartus since Monday. Several were spotted holding positions about 15 km from the coast.
It's unclear if these vessels will return.
But satellite images also show that a full evacuation of Tartus hasn't happened, Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times.
"And if they have to leave Tartus, you'd actually see more ships show up to help move things out," she told the outlet.
It's possible that Russia moved its ships temporarily out to sea to protect them while conditions in Syria remain uncertain.
At Khmeimim, which Russia uses as its primary channel for flying troops into Africa, satellite images this week showed that much of the Kremlin's equipment, including fighter jets and helicopters, remained on-site.
Russian aircraft are spotted at the Khmeimim airbase on Monday.
Massicot wrote in a thread on X that an evacuation of the airbase "will be obvious."
"An air evacuation would take hundreds of sorties of IL-76 and An-124, not the handful identified yesterday at Khmeimim," she wrote, referring to several Ilyushin and Antonov freight airliners spotted at Khmeimim earlier this week.
"When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion," Massicot added.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that Russia is likely delaying a total evacuation as it tries to suss out a deal with a new Syrian government.
They said Russia is still maintaining its assets in Khmeimim, and that a "lack of a coherent Russian response" indicates Moscow is still watching the situation.
"The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria," the analysts wrote.
The Kremlin hopes it won't have to evacuate
Russia is also publicly signaling that it isn't giving up on its vital bases.
Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, told reporters that Russia has been in contact with "those capable of ensuring the security of military bases."
Meanwhile, Russian state media outlet TASS cited an unnamed source in the Kremlin saying that Syrian opposition leaders had guaranteed the safety of Tartus and Khmeimim.
On the other hand, Ukraine's intelligence divisionΒ said on Tuesday that Russia has a plan to evacuate Khmeimim with Antonovs and Ilyushins, and that Russian troops have begun dismantling equipment at Tartus under the supervision of special forces. It did not say how it sourced this information.
Russia's future in Syria unclear
Despite those forecasts, it's unclear how a post-Assad Syria will take shape. Rebel forces in the country were largely splintered, consisting of various separate factions sharing the common cause of toppling Assad.
Mohammed al-Bashir, who ran rebel-held pockets of northern Syria, said on Tuesday that he had been named interim prime minister.
The Islamist group at the helm of the rebel victory, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former Al Qaeda-affiliated fighter who's said to have cut ties with the terrorist organization.
But he is still listed as a terrorist by the US, with a $10 million bounty on his head. Though he has been a prominent contender for leadership, he has not taken an official leadership position as of press time.
President Vladimir Putin's strategic objectives in Syria are under threat.
Contributor via Getty Images
The downfall of Assad has threatened Russia's military presence in Syria along with its wider strategic objectives.
Russia's bases in Syria made it a major diplomatic player in the Middle East.
The bases were also crucial for its activities in Africa.
The fall of Bashar Assad has thrown Russia's military presence in Syria into question. It also poses a threat to Russia's ability to project power throughout the Middle East and beyond.
Russia has used the bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.
"These bases are the most important bases outside the direct sphere of Russian influence," Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told Business Insider.
Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND, told BI that despite its massive landmass, Russia "doesn't have great geography for power projection."
"It doesn't have warm water ports that have direct access to the oceans," she added. "And so having a port in the Mediterranean is incredibly strategically useful."
Hmeimim, meanwhile, gives Russia a refueling base and overflight access throughout the Middle East and on to Africa, she said.
On Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia had pulled two ships from Tartus, and had transferred weapons from Hmeimim.
BI was unable to independently verify the report.
But satellite images captured by Planet Labs PBC show Russian warships that had been seen in Tartus earlier this month were gone as of Monday.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia intended to have serious discussions with future Syrian authorities about access to the bases, but that it is too soon for now.
The potential loss of influence in Syria is not just about state power. The bases have also allowed support for the activities of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.
"If you look at the Wagner footprint in Africa, you can tell that it's been enabled by the fact that they have that access in Syria to support those operations," said Dailey.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, losing the bases in Syria will "immediately" interrupt Wagner's rotation and resupply efforts.
Russia's ambitions for global leadership
Russia's involvement in Syria is a legacy of the Soviet era when the USSR traditionally maintained strong ties with other socialist states.
Russia propped up the Assad regime for more than a decade, notably sending aid during the 2011 Arab Spring, and troops and weapons to help counter the uprising in 2015.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had many reasons to stick his neck out for Assad.
"By backing Assad, Russia positioned itself as an indispensable player in regional politics, thereby increasing its diplomatic leverage," said Ali Bilgic, a professor in international relations and Middle East politics at the UK's Loughborough University.
But the huge cost of invading Ukraine appears to have forced Russia to choose between the two.
It "really speaks to how stretched thin Russian forces are," according to Dailey.
Putin has based Russia's international stature on the idea it can play a major role in different parts of the world, said Cristian Nitoiu, a Russia-focused lecturer in diplomacy and foreign affairs, also at Loughborough University.
Yet Putin's refusal to help Assad this time "basically shows that Russia was unable to support one of its long-lasting friends," Nitoiu said.
"The events in Syria can be seen as a sort of strategic failure on the part of Russia, and the optics look really bad," he added.
An uncertain future
In a statement on Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.
Russia has called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham a terror group β so the fact that they are communicating with rebel groups now "demonstrates the importance of these bases," Dailey said.
HTS is also designated a terror group by the US and the UN.
What the US does regarding events in Syria will also be pivotal to what sort of foothold Russia can maintain, Loughborough University's Bilgic said.
On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
Should the US withdraw all involvement, Russia could exploit any ensuing power vacuum. But "this scenario appears improbable," Bilgic said.
In fact, diminishing Russian influence in Syria is a huge strategic draw for the US, he said, adding that there is also a concern that a new Russia-backed government could give room to ISIS, as well as threats to Israeli security.
Russia's presence in Syria has also helped it shape its objectives in energy markets, Bilgic said.
"Economically, the Tartus base played a role in Russia's energy strategy, helping to counter competing projects like the Qatar-Turkey pipeline," he said.
A grim reminder
What has happened in Syria in recent days may lead to some sleepless nights in Russia.
"I think it will rattle some folks in the Kremlin to see just how quickly Russia's military had to withdraw," Dailey said.
Assad's fall may also be a grim reminder for those in power in Russia of the necessity of crushing domestic resistance quickly, she said.
"Anyone in the Kremlin, because they've studied Russian history, knows that an autocratic regime can crumble very quickly."
Syrians around the world celebrated as news of Assad's fall broke.
Fadel Dawod/Getty Images
Western leaders have welcomed the fall of Bashar Assad but warned of uncertainty about what's next.
Biden warned of "a moment of risk" over Syria's future.
Assad was ousted by a coalition that included Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose leader fought the US in Iraq.
World leaders are warning the downfall of Syria's dictator Bashar Assad leaves the country's future uncertain, as most of them celebrate his toppling.
Assad had, for more than a decade, faced a loose coalition of rebel groups, including the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. But it was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that traces its roots to Al Qaeda, that stormed from city to city in days, prompting Assad to flee to Russia, which had helped keep him in power.
Questions remain about what sort of government may form under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Though he has broken ties with Al Qaeda and is projecting messages of religious tolerance, the US designates him a terrorist and has a $10 million bounty on his head.
Here's how the world's been reacting to Assad's fall.
US: President Joe Biden
"At long last, the Assad regime has fallen," Biden said on Sunday during a press briefing in the Roosevelt Room.
Biden called the Assad government's expulsion a "fundamental act of justice" and a "moment of opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country."
"It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty," the president added. "As we all turn to the question of what comes next."
The US has been conducting airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, Biden said.
US: President-Elect Donald Trump
Trump, who is to succeed Biden on January 20, referenced the war in Ukraine as a key reason for Russia's waning military support for Assad.
"Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer," he wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.
In a post on Saturday, Trump wrote that the US should avoid any involvement in Syria.
"THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!" he wrote.
EU: European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen
In a statement on Sunday, Von der Leyen wrote that Europe hoped to support Damascus in "rebuilding a Syrian state that protects all minorities."
"This historic change in the region offers opportunities but is not without risks," Von der Leyen wrote.
The majority of the nation's population is Sunni Muslim, but among them are Alawites, Christians, Shiite Muslims, Druze, and other ethnicities and religious movements.
UK: Prime Minister Keir Starmer
Starmer cautioned on Sunday that Syria's new political situation is still in its "early days," but said Assad's fall was a "very good thing for the Syrian people."
"The Syrian people have suffered under Assad's barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure," Starmer said. "Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored."
Starmer called for a "rejection of terrorism and violence" and for civilians to be protected.
Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Scholz posted identical statements on Sunday in German, Arabic, and English.
"Today, we stand with all Syrians who are full of hope for a free, just, and safe Syria," the chancellor said.
"A political solution to the conflict in Syria is possible. With international partners and on the basis of the resolutions of the UN Security Council, Germany will make its contribution," he added.
A few hours earlier, Scholz said that the end of Assad's rule was "good news." He also urged that civilians and minorities be protected.
France: President Emmanuel Macron
"The barbaric state has fallen. At last," Macron said in identical statements in Arabic, French, and English.
He called the current situation a "moment of uncertainty" and said he wished Syrians "peace, freedom, and unity."
"France will remain committed to the security of all in the Middle East," Macron added.
Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Trudeau also celebrated Assad's fall as the end of decades of dictatorship in Syria, and said Canada was "monitoring this transition closely."
"A new chapter for Syria can begin here β one free of terrorism and suffering for the Syrian people," he said.
China: Foreign Ministry
The Chinese foreign ministry's initial response focused on the status of its citizens in Syria.
"We urge relevant parties in Syria to ensure the safety and security of the Chinese institutions and personnel in Syria," they added.
On Monday, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, Mao Ning, said Beijing was "closely watching developments."
"We hope all relevant parties will proceed on the basis of the Syrian people's fundamental interests and find a political resolution as soon as possible to restore stability in the country," she said.
Iran: Foreign Ministry
Iran, which backed Assad for over a decade, indicated that it hopes to continue to establish a presence in the region.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasizing Syria's role as an important and influential country in West Asia, will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria," its foreign ministry said in a statement.
Despite its past support for Assad, it added that "determining Syria's future and making decisions about its destiny are solely the responsibility of the Syrian people, without any destructive interference or external imposition."
Turkey: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan
Fidan said Assad's fall paves the way for millions of Syrian refugees in neighboring Turkey to potentially return home.
"As of this morning, the Syrian people have started a new day in which they will determine the future of their country," Fidan said in a statement.
Turkey is home to some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, and Ankara has been actively supporting some rebel forces in the north with troops, drone strikes, and artillery.
Fidan added that Turkey would "assume responsibility for whatever needs to be done to heal Syria's wounds and ensure its unity, integrity, and security."
Russia: Foreign Ministry
In a statement on Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was monitoring Syria "with extreme concern."
The ministry said Assad had resigned after discussing with "a number of participants" in the civil war, and that Moscow was not involved in the negotiations.
"However, we call on all the parties involved to renounce the use of violence and resolve all governance issues through political efforts," it said.
"In this regard, the Russian Federation maintains contact with all Syrian opposition groups," the ministry added.
Russia has said for years that it's supported Assad to protect Syria's legitimacy and to fight terrorism.
It fields two major military bases in Syria, the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base, which provide Russia with access to Africa and the Mediterranean.
"Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is no serious threat to their security at the moment," the foreign ministry said.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Shortly after insurgents declared the city "free," Russia's foreign ministry announced Assad had resigned his position and left the country. Russian state news later reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he was granted asylum.
The collapse of Assad's government came after a coalition of opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a surprise offensive, seizing control of major cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs in a matter of days.
Syrians around the world celebrated the end of Assad's rule, which was marked by brutal suppression. His violent crackdown on peaceful anti-government protests in 2011, part of the Arab Spring uprisings, sparked a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, straining neighboring countries like Turkey and Lebanon.
World leaders conveyed cautious optimism after news of Assad's ouster, but uncertainty remains around what kind of government and leader will replace him.
One major player will almost certainly be HTS, which is led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq alongside a branch of Al Qaeda.
Jolani later returned to Syria, his homeland, where he fought with Jabhat Al-Nusra β an Al Qaeda offshoot formed in 2012 β and other rebel groups against Assad's forces.
Jolani severed his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 and formed a new group, which eventually became HTS in 2017. Since then, Jolani has portrayed himself as a more moderate leader to gain international legitimacy. Both the United States and the United Nations still list HTS as a terrorist organization.
In one 2021 interview with PBS Frontline, Jolani called the group's terrorist designation a "political label that carries no truth or credibility."
"Through our 10-year journey in this revolution, we haven't posed any threat to Western or European society: no security threat, no economic threat, nothing. That's why this designation is politicized," he said.
In recent years, HTS has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.
In Idlib, Jolani established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government, which has acted as a showcase for what his leadership could bring to a wider area.
Speaking about the Salvation Government in the PBS interview, Jolani said that while the situation in Idlib was not ideal, there was "a self-asserting model that was capable of running the affairs of a whole country under an Islamic rule."
While some have remained doubtful that the group has fully cut its links with Al Qaeda, it has put forth a message of inclusiveness and unity in recent days, calling for a peaceful transition of power and reassuring religious and ethnic minorities in Syria.
"In the future Syria β¦ diversity is our strength, not a weakness," the group said in a statement to the Kurdish minority in Aleppo.
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told Sky News that while Jolani and his group had changed, they remained "pretty hardline."
"It's PR, but the fact they are engaging in this effort at all shows they are no longer as rigid as they once were," he said, referencing video footage showing Jolani forbidding fighters from entering homes and telling them to protect citizens. "Old-school Al Qaeda or the Islamic State would never have done that."
HTS is only one part of an ideologically diverse opposition, and it remains to be seen if the coalition can peacefully share power and extend unified control over the whole country.
"If not, intra-Syrian territorial fragmentation, and the potential emergence of regional warlords and fiefdoms, will quickly grow," Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program, told Business Insider.
Syrians around the world celebrated as news of Assad's fall broke.
Fadel Dawod/Getty Images
Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has resigned and fled his country.
Rebel forces said they seized control of the capital, Damascus.
The collapse of Assad's government could have major global implications.
Syrians around the world celebrated as rebels, after more than a decadelong fight, finally toppled the country's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, on Sunday.
The Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday that Assad had resigned from his position as Syrian president and left the country. Russian state news reported that Assad had arrived in Moscow, where he's been granted asylum.
Syrian anti-government forces announced early on Sunday morning that they had advanced into Damascus, Syria's capital.
In a post on social media, rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani said: "We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad."
"Today 8-12-2024 Syria is officially free," he added in a later post.
Hassan Akkad, who fled Syria in 2015 and is now based in the UK, posted to X, "Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free. Syria is free."
President-elect Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday that Assad had "fled his country" after losing Russia's support.
"Assad is gone," Trump wrote. "His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer."
In a press briefing on Sunday, President Joe Biden called the fall of Assad's government "a fundamental act of justice" and "a moment of opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country."
Biden said the US would support Syria's neighbors Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel "should any threat arise from Syria during this transition." Biden said the United States would also "maintain our mission against ISIS" inside the country, referring to the terrorist group operating in the region.
The US military conducted at least a dozen airstrikes inside Syria on Sunday, "targeting ISIS camps and ISIS operatives," Biden said.
The United States will also support Syria through the United Nations to create a new government through a process determined by the Syrian people, Biden said.
"The United States will do whatever we can to support them, including through humanitarian relief, to help restore Syria after more than a decade of war and generational brutality by the Assad family," Biden said.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a Sunday statement, echoed the president's sentiment, saying the US "will support international efforts to hold the Assad regime and its backers accountable for atrocities and abuses perpetrated against the Syrian people, including the use of chemical weapons and the unjust detention of civilians such as Austin Tice."
The Syrian people, Blinken added, "finally have reason for hope."
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called Assad's resignation "a positive and long-awaited development."
"It also shows the weakness of Assad's backers, Russia and Iran," Kallas said in a statement. "Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners in Syria and in the region."
Geir Pedersen, the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, said in a statement, "Today marks a watershed moment in Syria's history."
How rebels took control of Aleppo
In late November, the coalition of rebel groups launched a surprise offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which traces its origins to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. It has more recently promoted more moderate views.
The rebels quickly took control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities, Hama, and the strategic city of Homs, which sits at an important crossroads linking Damascus to the coast.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, is a Syrian who fought against US occupation in Iraq with Al Qaeda. He is believed to have cut ties with the terrorist organization in 2016 but is still designated a terrorist by the US, which has placed a $10 million bounty on his head.
Al-Jolani has sought to portray himself as a more moderate leader and promoted messages of religious and ethnic inclusivity as HTS pushed toward Damascus. Still, HTS has a reputation as a hardline Islamist faction.
"This victory, my brothers, is a victory for the entire Islamic nation," Al-Jolani said in a speech to his followers this weekend, per a translation by CNN. "This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region."
What Assad's ousting means for Russia and Iran
The collapse of Assad's government could have significant global implications, especially for Russia and Iran, which have been two of Assad's strongest allies.
Moscow operates two major military facilities in Syria β the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base β which have given its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a base to launch operations into Africa.
Losing access to these bases would scupper many of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans in the region, Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, wrote on X: "Without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse."
While Russia intervened to prop up Assad in 2015, its priorities have since shifted to the war in Ukraine, and it had appeared reluctant to divert any significant resources to help Assad this time around.
On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said there was no security threat to its military bases in Syria but that they were on high alert.
For Iran, Syria has been part of an important land corridor stretching from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, helping it support key regional proxies such as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, previously told Business Insider.
In a separate post on TruthSocial on Saturday, Trump called on the United States to stay out of the situation in Syria, writing: "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
This story is being updated as the situation unfolds.
Iran may have few options or appetite to bolster Syrian leader Bashar Assad against a rebel offensive that took Aleppo.
Abdulfettah Huseyin/Anadolu via Getty Images
Syria's embattled president is losing ground to advancing rebels after years of stalemate.
In the past, Iran orchestrated the interventions that stopped the opposition forces' momentum.
"I'm not sure Iran can muster the numbers in time to turn this situation around," an analyst said.
Since the early stages of Syria's bloody civil war that began in 2011, Iran has supported Syria's strongman president, Bashar Assad. Now with the loss of Syria's second city, Aleppo, to Assad's opponents, Tehran has vowed to continue this support β but it almost certainly has less to offer than a decade ago.
Syrian rebel forces spearheaded by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group seized Aleppo in a shock offensive last week, surprising the world and returning the Syrian conflict to the headlines for the first time in years. The rebels did not stop there. Advancing in the face of Russian and Syrian airstrikes, they overran Syria's fourth-largest city, Hama, on Thursday.
"The Syrian government has lost a lot of terrain, including the city of Aleppo. You can't really overstate the seriousness of that," Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told Business Insider. "Aleppo is a huge city, a really large urban area that will be difficult to retake once lost if Assad is unable to move on it before the insurgents dig in."
Earlier in the Syrian conflict, Iran helped orchestrate interventions on Assad's side by its powerful Lebanese proxy Hezbollah in 2013, and Russia in 2015.
These decisive interventions helped him turn the tide, culminating in a ferocious, scorched-earth campaign against opposition groups in east Aleppo in 2016.
The latest offensive has prompted some outside intervention. Hundreds of Iran-backed militiamen in Iraq are entering Syria. Russia has carried out airstrikes to impede the opposition's advance. However, these are small-scale compared to past interventions. And Hezbollah isn't intervening for now.
"I'm not sure Iran can muster the numbers in time to turn this situation around," Lund said. "Hezbollah, which was Tehran's primary instrument in Syria over the past decade, is now stuck in Lebanon, tending to its wounds and trying to get back on its feet after being mauled by Israel over the course of a two-month war."
Hezbollah is estimated to have upwards of 100,000 fighters and a vast missile arsenal, but those have been battered by Israel's airstrikes and occupation of southern Lebanon.
"The Lebanon ceasefire is really brittle, and as long as conflict could re-erupt at any moment, I don't think Hezbollah has the manpower to spare," Lund said. "Even if they're able to send some men Assad's way, I doubt it would be a game-changing number."
Iran's other options are mobilizing more Iraqi militias or sending personnel from its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary or its regular army.
"It's possible that Iran will try to send more arms and ammunition," Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and founder and former director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told BI.
"It is also probably counting on Russian airstrikes to stall the HTS offensive and it is clearly having back-channel talks with Turkey," Slavin said. "The Turks may be angling to get Iran to turn a blind eye to new attacks on the Kurds in return for urging HTS to hit pause."
Rebel groups captured tanks and military vehicles belonging to the Assad regime on the Idlib-Hama road in Hama, Syria on December 4, 2024.
Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images
HTS is not a Turkish-controlled proxy like the self-styled Syrian National Army coalition of opposition militias that is also advancing across Aleppo province. However, Turkey has closely coordinated its army's deployment in Syria's Idlib with HTS, which has been the predominant power in that northwestern Syrian province for years now.
"Iran is also looking to cultivate a relationship with Trump, which further limits its freedom of maneuver in the region," Slavin said.
"Iran is in a terrible situation currently without the necessary military, economic, and political capacity to spare," Arash Azizi, senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University, told BI.
"Its myriad of problems includes the fact that many Iraqis are reluctant to get involved in a renewed war in Syria."
While Iran will undoubtedly remain committed to supporting Assad, it's unlikely to prove capable of organizing a 2016-style counteroffensive to recapture Aleppo.
"That would require a lot of planning and a lot of diplomatic bargaining with Turkey and other powers," Azizi said.
Century's Lund recalled that the last time Iran intervened to help Assad recapture Aleppo, it did so in close collaboration with Russia.
"If they're going to replicate that success now, the Russians would probably need to bring the air component," Lund said. "Iran has no air force to speak of and if Iranian jets were to show up in Syria, Israel would go after them immediately."
Russian jets and air defenses afford Iran some protection since Israel is more hesitant to clash with Russian forces than they are with Syrian or Iranian ones.
But it remains to be seen how much airpower Russia can spare with its fighters and bombers engaged in the invasion of Ukraine.
"It's worth noting that the Syrian conflict is so small-scale compared to Ukraine that even a relatively small contribution of assets could have an impact there," Lund said.
The Iraqi militiamen entering Syria are more likely to serve as a holding force to help Assad avoid losing more territory.
"Assad needs to hold onto the capital and its immediate environs if he has a chance to survive as Syrian leader," Stimson's Slavin said.
Since Syria doesn't have a sizable Shia minority like Lebanon, Iran has been unable to stand up a local proxy as effective or powerful as Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.
Any efforts Iran may take to help Assad coincide with its own priorities to seek an acceptable deal with President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. "Iran also wants to at least try for a deal with Trump, so a more aggressive regional posture will not work as regional issues will be on the table this time along with the nuclear file," Slavin said.
As this crisis unfolds, it's striking how "unimportant and absent" the US has been, Azizi noted.
"The US has forces on the ground and also airpower that it has used to attack certain forces on Syrian territory," Azizi said. "But it's clearly not a main player and doesn't seem to have a clear, strategic goal or any particular focus on Syria."
"As with most other matters, President Trump remains unpredictable," Azizi said.
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government.
Russia and Iran have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad for years.
Here's why Syria is so important for both Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has been carrying out airstrikes on Syrian rebel fighters who are advancing through the country as part of an offensive that has seen them seize control of Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities.
Syria holds strategic importance for Moscow and Tehran, which have both supported Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled regime.
For Russia, which operates two major military bases in the country β the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartus naval base β Syria offers a key foothold in the region, giving its forces crucial access to the Mediterranean Sea and a launching pad for operations in Africa.
Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford to lose a Russia-friendly government in Syria for fear of losing the airbase and warm water port crucial to maintaining its influence in the region.
"It's used that port and the base as a launching pad to move into Africa," Hall said. "At one point, there were at least 30 Russian warships in the Mediterranean, whereas just a few years prior, there were none."
Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, said losing Syria would be "a big deal for Russia."
"Most of its plans in the Sahel and Libya revolve around supporting Russia's access to the Mediterranean, without a strong Russian military base in Syria, all of Putin's plans collapse," Riboua wrote on X.
Putin's support for Assad helped boost his popularity in Africa, Riboua continued, adding that losing Syria would "make Putin not just look weak, but look unreliable to many African countries that rely today on Wagner."
Iran's network of proxies
Syria also provides Iran with access to the Mediterranean via a land corridor that extends from Tehran through to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, connecting its proxies in the region.
"For Iran, Syria is absolutely essential in order to maintain its proxy network," Hall said. "It now has this unimpeded route from Tehran all the way to Lebanon."
Syria is particularly important for Iran's ability to support the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which for over a year has been embroiled in conflict with Israel. Israel has recently thrown this top Iranian ally into disarray, killing its longtime leader and wounding thousands of its fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies. A cease-fire agreement was reached between Israel and Hezbollah last week.
"Iran is deeply invested in Syria with dozens of military bases and other facilities because the country is critical to Tehran's support for Hezbollah," wrote Steven Cook, the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Syria provides Tehran with a place to manufacture weapons and a route to transport them, as well as a command post for Iranian commanders who work with Hezbollah, Cook said.
Tehran may, therefore, see the Syrian conflict as a way to reimpose itself in the region, Riboua said in another post on X.
"Weakened in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran now views the conflict in Syria as an opportunity to reassert its influence by joining the Assad regime against its opposition," Riboua said. "Tehran likely sees this renewed involvement as a chance to restore its legitimacy and strengthen its control over its proxies."
Latest conflict is 'no surprise'
Russian ties with Syria trace back to the Cold War-era when Moscow supplied arms to the country.
The two countries grew closer under the leadership of Putin and Assad, as the former sought to expand and defend Russian interests in the Middle East.
In 2015, this resulted in Russia directly intervening in the country's civil war, which began in 2011, to prop up Assad.
Over the following years, Moscow steadily built up its military presence in Syria, and by 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that more than 63,000 Russian troops had "received combat experience" in the country.
But following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow's Syrian operations were put on the back burner, and it reportedly redeployed some troops, mercenaries, and military equipment from Syria to Ukraine.
Iran and Syria, meanwhile, have had strong relations since the 1979 Iranian revolution.
Iranian troops are also reported to have fought alongside Syrian government forces in 2015.
But like Russia, Iran's priorities have shifted in recent months, with Tehran locked with Israel in a series of escalating long-range strikes.
For the US, that meant the latest offensive seemingly came as no great shock.
Speaking to NBC News, national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that Assad's three key backers, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, had all "been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere."
"So it's no surprise that you see actors in Syria, including the rebels, try to take advantage of that," he added.
For Russia and Iran, the fall of Aleppo will nevertheless come as a humiliating blow, Hall said.
It shows "how weak their ally is, even after 13 years of war," she added.
The US has around 900 troops in Syria that are part of an anti-jihadist coalition and protects oil fields in the country's northeast.
DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images
US troops remain in Syria to counter ISIS and patrol oil fields in the region.
Trump's return raises uncertainties about the status of these troops in this highly volatile region.
Both Turkey and the Kurdish-led officials hope to sway the incoming Trump administration.
For almost a decade, US troops have been on the ground in Syria to assist Kurdish-led forces in the defeat of the infamous Islamic State. These forces tamp down on the ISIS remnants in the northern and eastern regions they presently control, where tens of thousands of captured ISIS fighters, their families and suspected affiliates remain in open-air camps and prisons.
But there's a new wrinkle of uncertainty in this highly volatile and contested region: US President-elect Donald Trump.
During his first term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces after ISIS' territorial defeat. Trump did this following a phone call with the president of Turkey, a staunch rival of the SDF, resulting in an immediate cross-border Turkish operation against those US-allied forces. Trump then backtracked and kept 900 US troops in Syria.
His imminent return to the Oval Office once again raises the specter that the US could pull out, leaving a power vacuum that Turkey, the Syrian regime, and Russia may move to fill at the SDF's expense. The resulting instability could be an opening for ISIS to regroup. Turkish officials want the US to leave, with the incumbent defense minister stating, "Trump will strongly focus on this." But the Kurds hope they can persuade him otherwise.
"We formed a successful alliance with the United States in combating terrorism," Sinam Mohamad, the representative of the Syrian Democratic Council mission to the United States and a top diplomat of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, told Business Insider.
"We may have felt frustrated during Trump's first term due to his decision to withdraw American forces from Syria in 2019," Mohamad said. "But today, as a result of the political circumstances in the Middle East and the world, we see that President Trump will have a different outlook than before."
The AANES administrates large swathes of north and east Syria under the SDF's control.
The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which is backed by Russia, does not recognize the AANES. Turkey vehemently opposes it, claiming the SDF has inextricable ties to its main adversary, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Turkish strikes against AANES infrastructure have cut off water and electricity to over a million people, leading to charges that Turkey is violating international law.
"The incoming Trump administration has an opportunity to reconfigure the entire US strategy in Syria, maintain its minimal but high-rewards troops presence in Syria, and proceed with a bold vision to mend fences between Syrian Kurds and Ankara," Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told BI.
"The focus should be on a win-win outcome for all sides, America, Kurds, and Turkey."
Some called for a US withdrawal after the January drone attack against a US base in Jordan that supports operations in Syria, killing three Americans and injuring 47.
The Syrian Democratic Forces oversee the sprawling Al Hol detention camp for ISIS fighters and their families, and worry a rapid US pullout from the region could lead to large prison breaks.
Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP
The specific timing of any American withdrawal will also be a critical factor.
"The American withdrawal from Syria may take place in 2026 or before that, but what will be different are the circumstances that will accompany this withdrawal," the SDC's Mohamad said. "It may take into account the dangers facing the areas of the autonomous administration and Washington's allies in the fight against terrorism, and at that time, it is necessary to ensure the withdrawal with political security for the region."
The official underlined the continued importance of the American presence for ensuring "the continuation of the fight against terrorism" and that the SDF can continue securing the "large number of prisoners of the terrorist organizations languishing" in AANES detention.
The Kurds have thousands of former ISIS fighters in its camps and detention centers. The sprawling Al-Hol camp has a population of over 40,000, including thousands of ISIS women and children, a number of whom remain radicalized. It has warned that another Turkish invasion would divert SDF fighters and resources away from securing these facilities.
"The Syrian Democratic Forces have the qualifications to secure these facilities," said Mohamad, the Kurdish diplomat. "But they will not be able to perform their duty to the fullest extent if the withdrawal occurs without political security for the region's situation."
Mohamad stressed that AANES and SDF would want American guarantees that Turkey will not invade after a US withdrawal.
"A sudden troop withdrawal could probably result in even more disastrous outcomes than in Afghanistan, given the presence of various regional and global powers in Syria and the resurgence of ISIS and other jihadi groups there," said Salih, the FPRI regional expert.
"In all likelihood, the situation will be highly chaotic in the event of a withdrawal with serious consequences that could witness the mass escaping of ISIS prisoners, likely more radicalized and resentful as a result of their prison experience," Salih added.
While weakened from years of war, ISIS has already demonstrated its capability to regroup and threaten their adversaries. A coordinated ISIS jailbreak attempt in 2022 led to almost two weeks of heavy fighting with the SDF.
A rapid US withdrawal tips the uneasy balance of powers. Salih anticipates this could lead to "a hectic race" between Iran, Russia, the Syrian regime, and Turkey for the resource-rich AANES regions.
"All the problems we suffer from in the regions of North and East Syria are related to the necessity of placing our region within the international solution platforms related to Syria, political support, and finding a solution to the Syrian crisis with the participation of the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Council in the political process," Mohamad said.
"This will have a major impact in changing the shape of the region, reducing hotbeds of tension, and ensuring global security and peace."
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
