• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was called out by a fellow Republican for recent stock trades.
• He said those trades were "just another reason why" lawmakers should be banned from trading stocks.
• Greene has attracted scrutiny for well-timed trades made around Trump's tariff moves.

First, it was Democrats who made a big deal out of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's stock trading habits. Now, a fellow Republican is joining in.

"Just another reason why stock trading by members of Congress or their spouses should be banned," Rep. Mike Lawler of New York wrote on X in response to a post showing that one of the Georgia congresswoman's recent stock purchases had paid off.

Lawler, who does not own any individual stocks, is a co-sponsor of the TRUST in Congress Act, a bill to require lawmakers and their spouses to divest from stocks or place them in a blind trust.

Greene has attracted scrutiny in recent weeks for a series of well-timed trades she made around President Donald Trump's tariff moves in early April.

When stock prices began to fall after the April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement, Greene began investing tens of thousands of dollars into a variety of stocks, continuing to do so right up until stock prices shot back up after Trump announced that most of those tariffs would be paused for 90 days.

The congresswoman has said that her stock portfolio is managed by an outside financial advisor.

"All of my investments are reported with full transparency. I refuse to hide my stock trades in a blind trust like many others do," the congressman said in a statement previously shared with BI. "Since my portfolio manager makes my trades for me, I usually find out about them when the media asks."

She's not the only lawmaker who bought the dip: Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida did as well.

But Democrats have suggested that Greene, a close Trump ally, may have been aware of Trump's tariff moves ahead of time. The congresswoman has denied that.

Lawler's post came on the heels of a feud between the two lawmakers that began on Wednesday, when Greene denounced the New York congressman for opposing Republicans' "Big Beautiful Bill" over a tax provision.

• President Donald Trump's first 100 days have been full of economic activity, from tariffs to federal firings.
• While much of this hasn't yet shown up in job numbers or inflation measures, several other measures are flashing red.
• BI looked back at how stocks, consumer confidence, and business optimism have changed.

It's the 100th day of President Donald Trump's second term, and it's been full of economic changes.

He's signed over 100 executive orders, could push the average effective tariff rate to the highest in over a century, and has cut large swaths of the federal government.

Hard economic data doesn't reflect much of Trump's new policies just yet: The job market is still on the same cooling but strong trajectory it's been on, and inflation was still marching down toward the Federal Reserve's target before the bulk of new tariffs kicked in.

However, that could all change in the coming months. Implementing tariffs could result in a surge in inflation and more stock sell-offs. More reorganization in the federal government could mean more job seekers for fewer positions, sending unemployment higher.

"While we believe that there are policy agenda items that will ultimately be positive for growth — namely, tax and deregulation — uncertainty from potential implications of tariff policy on the labor market and direction of inflation has dampened sentiment," Michael Hans, chief investment officer for Citizens Wealth, told Business Insider.

Sentiment data, chaos in the markets, and interviews with small business owners, consumers, and economists suggest Americans are worried.

"Within 100 days of President Trump's second term in office, Americans saw the first monthly price drop in years in the March inflation report, while industry leaders ranging from Apple to Hyundai to Nvidia have made trillions in historic investment commitments to reshore manufacturing back to the United States," said White House spokesman Kush Desai. "President Trump delivered a historic economy in his first term, and he's running back the success in his second term."

Here's how people feel, how markets have changed, and what tariffs could mean.

Consumer sentiment has sunk

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has fallen each month this year. Sentiment was better at the start of 2017, when Trump was first in office, despite higher unemployment rates and comparable inflation.

Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said it's reasonable to think sentiment could drop further once the "material effects" of tariffs and other policies kick in. Some consumers have already started panic-buying cars and electronics, and a handful of companies have already announced price increases.

"I do think hard data is going to converge with soft data and we're going to start to see a much more slowly growing economy," Colyar said.

The S&P 500 is looking better than earlier this month, but short of the year's start

Colyar said this year's ups and downs in stock prices have been driven by reactions to tariff announcements and their potential impacts.

The S&P 500 plunged after Trump announced new tariffs on April 2. The index had somewhat recovered, but dipped after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's comments on tariffs and inflation on April 16.

"The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated," Powell said. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, told Business Insider many consumers use the market to gauge the economy. She added with its volatility and recent losses, "it's possible that consumers can internalize that and have even worse expectations for the economy, their finances, their jobs."

People are willing to accept less money to get a job

The unemployment rate is low, but people are taking a while to find work. This has been the case since before Trump's second presidency. Expectations of finding a new role have been flat this year.

However, how much money people would accept for a job fell in March from the New York Fed's previous survey in November, suggesting that prospective job seekers are feeling more anxious about finding work and are less choosy with their options.

Business optimism has cooled from a postelection high

Small business optimism spiked when Trump was elected, peaking in December. Since then, the National Federation of Independent Business's small business optimism index has cooled. The index is still higher than readings in the past few years, suggesting some optimism remains.

Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said business owners "have scaled back expectations on sales growth" as they determine how policies would affect them.

The Conference Board's Peterson said that the tariffs would affect some industries more than others. Some small businesses have been stocking up ahead of tariffs or holding off on business plans.

"Oftentimes, when businesses and consumers are concerned about the future because of uncertainty, they will stop their activity," Peterson said. "Businesses won't invest or they won't hire, consumers won't spend, they'll just kind of sit there and wait and see what happens."

The effective tariff rate could be the highest in more than a century

Trump has made several announcements about tariffs, including during what he called "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he announced broad tariffs with rates of over 40% on some countries. Many of these plans have been paused for now. China has retaliated, imposing tariffs on the US.

The Budget Lab at Yale projects the average effective tariff rate could hit 28%, the highest since 1901, assuming that businesses and consumers keep buying their current mix of imports. Even after factoring in likely spending shifts to less-tariffed imports, The Budget Lab estimates it would be 18%, the highest rate since 1934.

The Budget Lab found leather products, apparel, and electrical equipment could especially see higher prices. The increase could be small for food.

Confidence in the economy has dropped

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which is based on opinions of current and future economic conditions, has declined.

Peterson said that people are worried about inflation and job prospects. She said there's also uncertainty about taxes.

"If they continue to remain low, there's no impact on the economy really, but if these taxes suddenly spike back up, then that's a real weight on the economy," she said.

The dollar index has fallen to its lowest since 2022

The dollar index has plunged during Trump's 100 days, recently falling to its lowest since 2022.

"Typically, you impose tariffs, the dollar would appreciate, but I think the dollar is depreciating right now because there's a lot of nervousness," Peterson said.

Analysts said Trump's recent comments about Powell, including wanting Powell to cut interest rates immediately and saying he doesn't intend to fire him, have contributed. Investor Louis Navellier thinks the dollar will rebound because "alternative currencies like the British Pound and the euro are also in the midst of their own recessions."

Uncertainty has skyrocketed

In March, the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, based on media stories about the economy, expiring federal tax code provisions, and forecasters, has about doubled its level from January. Many Americans are feeling uncertain about what policies mean for them or the outlook of the economy.

One person told BI she panic bought a laptop because of announced tariffs, a business owner said he's holding off expanding, and a long-term unemployed person hopes he can find a job that fits soon because he's worried about a recession.

The 10-year Treasury has fluctuated

The bond market has also been very sensitive to Trump's tariff moves, which sparked sharp losses for investors.

The 10-year US Treasury yield soared as much as 50 basis points to 4.49% after Trump's tariff announcements on April 2. The swift move in yields sent bond prices plunging, which especially hurt retirees who typically invest the bulk of their assets in fixed-income securities.

The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index dropped as much as 4% in a week as investors reassessed the direction of interest rates under Trump's tariff regime. The new import duties sparked fears of resurging inflation that the Fed could be compelled to fight with higher rates in the future.

The higher interest rates also caught the Trump administration off guard, as they are laser-focused on refinancing government debt at a lower interest rate.

The ups and downs of the bond market in response to policy moves "will likely be a focal point and may help guide policymakers within the administration," Hans of Citizens Wealth said.

• A hedge fund disclosed a net short position in Trump Media & Technology Group.
• QRT's bet represents 2.5% of the Truth Social owner's outstanding shares, valued at $105 million.
• TMTG shares plunged this month after a filing signaled that President Donald Trump could cash out.

A hedge fund has revealed it's betting against President Donald Trump's media company.

Qube Research & Technologies disclosed a net short position in Trump Media & Technology Group — representing 2.5% of the Truth Social owner's outstanding shares — in Germany's Federal Gazette on Monday. The wager is valued at about $105 million, based on TMTG's market value of about $4.2 billion.

Breakout Point, the research firm that first spotted the filing, said in a note emailed to Business Insider that this was the first short wager against TMTG to be disclosed to regulators, and QRT's second-biggest short in percentage terms. Other short sellers have targeted the stock in the past.

This filing was likely made to comply with Germany's short-selling regulations, intended to increase market transparency.

QRT's press team said in an emailed statement to BI that the firm operated a diversified, quantitative long/short portfolio and did not comment on its positions.

"Our positions are model-driven and do not reflect a specific view on the fundamental of the company," they said.

TMTG shares tumbled to a six-month low this month after the company registered for sale shares belonging to Trump — who owns 53% of the business — and several other shareholders. TMTG didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Usually, an investor who is "long" on a stock has bought it expecting it to rise, while one who is "short" is betting that it will fall.

Short sellers borrow shares of their target company and then sell them, hoping they can buy back the shares at a lower price, return them to the lender, and pocket the difference as profit.

TMTG went public in March last year via a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. The meme stock has tanked 44% this year and trades more than 80% below its peak price.

Total short interest was 4.9% on Monday, Nasdaq data shows.

• The US tech elite are down sharply in wealth this year while their Chinese rivals are up strongly.
• Elon Musk's net worth has tanked by $121 billion, while Bytedance's CEO is up nearly $14 billion.
• Their contrasting fortunes are one result of the global trade turmoil sparked by President Donald Trump.

America's tech titans have lost billions this year while their Chinese rivals have racked up large wealth gains amid President Donald Trump's tariff-induced trade war.

The tariffs have reignited fears of inflation and recession in the US, spurring investors to dump high-flying tech stocks in favor of safer holdings such as gold and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

The sell-off has hammered the net worths of most of the richest Americans, whose stakes in tech companies make up the vast majority of their wealth.

Trump has aimed some of the highest duties at imports from China, putting the world's second-largest economy under more pressure. Nevertheless, Chinese tech stocks have rallied strongly this year at the prospect of friendlier regulation and fresh government stimulus, boosting the fortunes of China's tech elite.

As of Friday's close, the 20 biggest gainers on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index have grown their combined wealth by $139 billion this year — more than BlackRock is worth.

Meanwhile, the 20 largest wealth losers have seen $450 billion vaporized, a figure greater than Exxon Mobil's market value.

It's striking that nine of the top 20 gainers are Chinese and only four are American, while 15 of the 20 biggest losers are American and none are Chinese. That trend may speak to how their companies' outlooks have changed, at least in the eyes of the global investment community, and how the US and China are expected to fare in the trade war.

The Chinese executives racking up wealth this year include Bytedance founder Zhang Yiming, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun, and BYD founder Wang Chuanfu. They've jointly added a combined $26 billion, with Zhang gaining $13.6 billion, or 31%, to $57 billion — putting him in 24th place on the rich list.

The US bosses hit hardest are Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. They've lost a collective $193 billion, with Musk shedding $121 billion or 28%.

The richest Americans have lost far more than the Chinese elite have gained for a few reasons. Their fortunes are larger, so a 10% swing in their net worth is a bigger move in dollar terms. US stocks as a whole are more richly valued than Chinese equities, making them more vulnerable to steeper declines.

It's also worth underscoring the greater role of the Chinese government in shoring up its markets and supporting domestic champions, which can help to limit declines in Chinese stocks.

Trouble for Tesla

Chinese billionaires' wealth gains also reflect their companies' strong progress. For example, BYD's sales of electric and hybrid vehicles surged by 40% to a record $107 billion last year, surpassing Tesla's revenues of $98 billion, as the Chinese EV maker made inroads into foreign markets.

Meanwhile, Tesla stock is under pressure not only because of Musk's proximity to Trump and leading role in cutting government spending and workers, but also because of concerns about tariffs and competition.

Politics aside, Tesla has "struggled with an ageing line up, recalls of its much-vaunted Cybertruck and increased competition, especially from Chinese players like BYD," said Danni Hewson of AJ Bell in a recent note.

If Chinese executives scale the global wealth ladder while American titans slide down the rungs, it could signal a sea change in market sentiment — and an upheaval of the global economic order.

• Goldman Sachs reported earnings for the first quarter of 2025 on Monday.
• Goldman generated record trading revenue, but market volatility hurt its corporate dealmaking arm.
• CEO David Solomon addressed anxious feelings from clients, and explained how he's counseling them.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is advising clients to closely monitor how policy shifts from Washington impact the global business landscape, adding that he's hopeful for a resurgence in M&A volumes later this year.

"When you get outside of the US and I listen to CEOs, I hear a greater sense of short-term concern, but everyone would like less uncertainty and more clarity," Solomon told analysts and shareholders in a Monday morning conference call to break down the firm's first-quarter performance. "My guess is, over time, this level of uncertainty will come down, and my general message to people is to go slow and take a pause here until we have more clarity around a lot of these issues."

Solomon was referring to the recent political uncertainty and a global markets frenzy spawned by White House policy decisions to impose, and then back off from, aggressive tariff measures on foreign trading partners. The resulting markets volatility left Wall Street facing down a conundrum in the first quarter: Traders rode the wave to record revenues, while the momentum that bankers hoped would enable corporate dealmaking to flourish again was all but eviscerated.

Still, Goldman reported robust earnings for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst expectations. The firm said it had generated net revenue of $15.06 billion during the first quarter, up about 8.6% from $13.9 billion in the previous quarter, which concluded at the end of 2024; and also up about 6% from the same quarter one year ago.

"Ongoing policy uncertainty and market volatility drove many clients to reposition their portfolios," lifting trading volumes in the firm's global banking and markets business line, Solomon said on the conference call, according to a transcript by the investment research platform AlphaSense. "In investment banking, the volatile backdrop led to more muted activity relative to the levels we had expected coming into this year."

Washington whiplash helps traders, hurts bankers

Solomon added later that some clients overseas had grown jittery as they watched the whiplash play out from Washington.

Since the start of the year, Wall Street has been strapped in for a bumpy ride as it has tried to make sense of the convulsive policy changes from Washington. Global indexes were thrashed last week as a result of President Donald Trump's policy announcements tied to tariffs and renegotiations with international trading partners.

"What we're hearing from clients — particularly it applies in Europe and other places around the world — is they don't like the level of uncertainty, and they don't like the fact that certain constructs for how they interact with the US economic system and the global economic system are potentially changing," he continued. "It's early to call heads or tails or direction of travel on how this will play out."

Traders have reaped the rewards of the selloff, which rattled economists, provoked fears of a bear market, and inflamed recessionary anxieties. Take Goldman's global banking and markets business line, where traders reported net revenue of $10.71 billion in the first quarter, 10% higher than the previous quarter and up 26% versus the same period last year. Record net revenue in equities — trading revenue was $4.19 billion, up 27% from the first quarter last year — was the big driver of success in this business line.

Investment banking faces 'a risk'

Overall investment banking fees were $1.91 billion, down 8% from the first quarter of 2024, citing softer performance in advisory. In recent weeks, bankers have turned to trying to drum up new business in a challenging environment, and keeping clients abreast of the seemingly hour-by-hour developments.

Investment banking advisory revenue dropped 22% from the same period last year, amounting to $792 billion this quarter. That's also down 18% from the nearly $1 billion Goldman generated in the prior quarter. The bank successfully defended its leading position on the M&A league tables.

Solomon offered a few reasons to be hopeful about the precarious investment banking landscape, saying that the pipeline of deals the bank was juggling was growing.

"As we stand today, our client dialogues remain elevated, and our backlog is up for the fourth consecutive quarter," the CEO said. "That being said, our ability to executive on these transactions will of course be dependent on market conditions."

In fact, he's vowing to win an all-important slice of the M&A pie — if it ever materializes.

"There's no question there's been a pickup in activity and monetization" from financial sponsors who hold billions in liquidity, but have been trepidatious about pulling the trigger on leveraged buyouts amid uncomfortably high interest rates. Solomon said "there's no firm better positioned to capitalize on that than Goldman Sachs" when the dam finally breaks under "enormous pressure" from investors to see returns on their capital commitments to various funds.

"For a period of time, there'll be some uncertainty around how certain things that were close proceed forward," he later told another bank analyst on the call. "But I would expect a significant amount of M&A activity through the rest of the year. But obviously, if the landscape got more constrained, there's a risk of it slowing."

Reed Alexander is a Wall Street correspondent at Business Insider. He can be reached via email at [email protected], or SMSthe encrypted app Signal at (561) 247-5758.

• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway issued $628 million of so-called samurai bonds on Friday.
• Several Japanese companies postponed similar bond sales as Trump's tariffs rocked markets.
• Strategist Larry McDonald suggested Buffett was raising fresh funds to go on an epic buying spree.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold yen-denominated debt worth $628 million on Friday, even as Japanese companies delayed bond issues amid roiling markets and a burgeoning trade war.

The famed investor's conglomerate issued six tranches of bonds ranging from three to 30 years, and offered higher premiums than its last yen note issue in October, per a term sheet viewed by Reuters.

Beverage makers Asahi and Suntory and Cup Noodle owner Nissin Foods postponed yen-bond issues they had planned for this week as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs and threats of retaliatory duties tanked stocks and rattled bond markets worldwide.

Buffett, famous for keeping his cool when others panic, forged ahead.

The Berkshire CEO nearly doubled his company's stash of cash and Treasurys to more than $320 billion last year, as he pared key holdings such as Apple and Bank of America and halted stock buybacks. This latest fundraising fueled fresh speculation on social media that the bargain hunter is preparing to pounce as stock prices reel.

"Just wow," Larry McDonald, the author of "The Bear Traps Report" and former head of US macro strategy at Société Générale, posted on X. "Buffett is loaded with cash and he's reaching into the margin account (borrowing) in yen. Next 12 months - he's going to buy this puke festival with both hands."

Betting on Japan

Berkshire has been issuing so-called samurai bonds since 2019 to finance its investments in five Japanese trading houses: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo. Friday's yen deal was its smallest so far, which could reflect limited investor appetite given all the market turmoil.

Buffett's company raised its stakes in the five largest "sogo shosha" in March, after he disclosed in his annual shareholder letter in February that the quintet had agreed to let Berkshire increase its ownership of each of them to more than 10%.

The billionaire investor wrote that he and his team originally piled in because they were "amazed" at the companies' cheap valuations.

Buffett also praised their use of capital, quality of management, and shareholder-friendly policies. He pointed to their responsible stock buybacks and dividend increases, and their more modest executive compensation compared to US counterparts.

The famously long-term investor said he expected his planned successor Greg Abel and Abel's successors to keep Berkshire invested in the five companies for "many decades" to come. He also boasted that Berkshire had spent $13.8 billion on the positions, which were worth $23.5 billion, or 70%, more at the end of 2024.

Moreover, Buffett said the five bets were poised to yield $812 million in dividends this year, dwarfing the $135 million of interest on yen bonds that Berkshire expected to pay.

'Like having God just opening a chest'

Buffett's late business partner, Charlie Munger, sang the Japan bet's praises on a podcast in 2023.

"If you're as smart as Warren Buffett, maybe two, three times a century, you get an idea like that," he said. "It was like having God just opening a chest and just pouring money into it."

Munger explained that Berkshire was able to borrow money for 10 years at 0.5% a year and use it to purchase stocks yielding roughly 5% in dividends annually, a type of investment known as a carry trade.

Shares of all five Japanese trading houses have fallen this year with Mitsubishi down about 5%, Marubeni and Sumitomo down about 7%, Itochu down 16%, and Mitsui down 20%. They now trade close to where they did early last year, which could make them appealing targets to an investor with deep pockets and a love for deals.

• Market volatility and trading volumes are sky-high, but the systems have so far handled the stress.
• Regulators and government officials in the US and UK say everything is working as it should.
• There are fears of knock-on effects in stock and bond markets if funds are forced to sell.

The house is on fire, but the pipes still work.

The rollout of President Donald Trump's tariffs has slammed equity and bond markets, as volatility and trading volumes have skyrocketed.

Despite this chaos, the infrastructure allowing asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and others to trade, redeem, and liquidate assets has held steady. As one investor said, "Everything's withstood a massive stress test."

The basis trade — a hedge-fund bet used by big-name managers like Millennium, Citadel, and ExodusPoint — takes advantage of a slight mispricing in Treasury futures contracts and cash Treasurys, a nearly risk-free trade that nets a tiny profit. Hedge funds have amplified this trade with borrowed money, given the relative lack of danger, making the recent moves in Treasury markets a potentially calamitous and wide-ranging event.

In March 2020, at the height of market volatility at the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve ended up buying $1 trillion worth of bonds to keep everything running. That experience has had regulators and central banks keeping a closer eye on the trade, which has only grown in assets since the pandemic.

Now, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hedge funds currently are experiencing an "uncomfortable but normal" deleveraging of their positions, and the most important market in the world — US government debt — is sound.

There were worries that the market jitters might bring about an Archegos-like crash of a major asset manager that couldn't meet its margin calls. Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note that there are indications of selling of so-called defensive stocks, which are supposed to do well in a market downturn and could be a sign of managers cashing out to meet prime broker demands.

But minutes released on Wednesday from the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee state that hedge funds have met margin calls since the tariffs were announced "without taking actions which would further amplify the market volatility."

Even equity markets haven't yet hit circuit breaker halts in trading despite the VIX — Wall Street's so-called fear gauge — being at its highest mark since March 2020.

"We don't know what we don't know, but at least it's all worked so far," said one veteran quant trader.

• President Donald Trump's tariff policies have vaporized trillions of dollars from the stock market.
• Those most affected are huge stockholders like billionaires, many of whom once supported the president.
• They are now turning on him, as stocks are down close to 10% in April already.

Maybe the animal spirits need to be leashed.

The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump last week have tanked global stock markets, hitting the world's richest the hardest.

Billionaires, including big supporters of Trump, have seen their net worths and investment portfolios plummet during the market sell-off.

Hedge fund managers such as Third Point's Dan Loeb and Pershing Square's Bill Ackman have been critical of the tariffs, with Ackman pushing for a 90-day pause on X.

Months after saying that people who are worried about the economic impacts of tariffs should "get over it," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his annual letter published Monday that "America First is fine, as long as it doesn't end up being America alone," and warned that tariffs will slow the economy down.

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, whom Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent worked under, posted on X in November that his former employee "is innovative in a calm, thoughtful way that will be disruptive but not rattle markets." On Sunday, as recession predictions became commonplace among economists, Druckenmiller made clear he differs from his former protégé, writing that he does not "support tariffs exceeding 10%."

A pair of Republican billionaires named Ken — Langone and Griffin, founders of Home Depot and Citadel, respectively — are frustrated with the rollout.

Langone told the Financial Times that he doesn't "understand the goddamn formula" used to create the specific rates for each country, while Griffin — whose vaunted flagship fund has lost money the last two months — called them a "huge policy mistake" in a talk at the University of Miami Monday night.

The reversal of opinion of the world's wealthiest is no shock. Former President Joe Biden, for example, enjoyed the support of big names in Wall Street and Silicon Valley before the relationship soured, thanks in part to the policies and focuses of former SEC chair Gary Gensler and former FTC chair Lina Khan.

Trump himself has veered between love and hate with the elite of his hometown during his decade in politics, with the most recent lull paling in comparison to how companies and donors fled from him following the January 6 insurrection attempt four years ago.

But this feels different because, according to six different investors trying (and mostly failing) to trade these markets, they're all powerless. A company's fundamentals do not matter now, only whatever comes out of Washington, which led to one trader "getting my face ripped off" by their short bet today.

This individual's bet backfired because the market briefly spiked at a false rumor of a reprieve from the tariffs. The White House denied any pause was coming, with Trump instead threatening even higher tariffs against China, which has shown no sign of yielding.

The Chinese Communist Party's mouthpiece, the People's Daily, wrote on Sunday that "the more pressure we get, the stronger we become," and some investors are starting to bet on them over the US.

Speaking on "Liberation Day" at a conference put on by technology lobbying group Information Technology Industry Council, David McCormick, the junior senator from Pennsylvania and one-time CEO of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said he has spoken to many in his old line of work who are "long China and short America."

Following the release of Chinese AI darling DeepSeek's models in January, McCormick, a Republican who is married to former Trump advisor and Goldman Sachs alum Dina Powell, said some of the so-called smart money is betting on the US losing the AI race — but he isn't.

"I'm long America, and I'm short China," he said, "but it depends on what we do. It's in our hands, and we can mess it up."

Emmalyse Brownstein contributed reporting.

• President Donald Trump's tariffs could have consequences for the current world order, Deutsche Bank said.
• The bank's researchers said US stocks are deeply exposed to a global trade war.
• If Trump doubles down there will be "immense global implications" for years to come, they said.

The stock market, the economy, and the entire world order are at risk if President Donald Trump forges ahead with his tariff plans, Deutsche Bank says.

Trump's announcement last week of at least 10% tariffs on goods from almost all foreign nations — and duties exceeding 50% in some cases — sent shockwaves through global markets.

The president has stood by his plan to improve America's trading terms with its partners despite broad backlash and threats of retaliation from other world leaders. The result has been the fourth-worst two-day decline for stocks since World War II, the bank's researchers said in a note published Monday, when global stocks were deep in the red again.

Jim Reid, Deutsche's global head of macro and thematic research, and his coauthors described Trump's tariff rollout as the "biggest shock to the global trading system" since the 1970s and the "largest tax increase for the US consumer" since the Vietnam War.

They underscored that the existing trade regime has correlated with ballooning US wealth, as companies and their shareholders have benefited from better supply chains, a broader marketplace, and access to cheaper labor in emerging countries. Ending it could raise costs for companies and narrow their profit margins, weighing on their stock prices.

"US equities have arguably been the ultimate beneficiary of this era and as such have a disproportionate amount to lose by its unravelling, especially when starting valuations have been so high," they said.

Deutsche Bank's economists most recently forecast less than 1% growth this year, unemployment approaching 5%, and a spike in core inflation toward 4%.

"Given the market moves and monumental uncertainty in recent days, this could well prove to be too optimistic," the bank's researchers said, adding that Trump's intransigence has paved the way for further market chaos.

They added that if Trump doesn't find an "elegant off-ramp" but instead "doubles down," that would have "immense global implications for 2025 and the years and decades ahead."

That's because if international trade deals fall apart, it will affect America's relationships with respect to "defense, geopolitics and the multi-lateral rules-based world order," they said.

UBS economists also sounded the alarm on Monday. Assuming the tariffs aren't negotiated down, they now expect real US GDP growth of 0.4% this year — down from 1.6% — and 2.2% price growth with core inflation at 4.6% by the end of this year.

They also predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 1 percentage point this year to shore up economic growth.