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- The Dow Broke a Half-Century-Old RecordβHere's What It could Mean for Your Money in 2025
- Finance & Market News - Investopedia
- The Dow Broke a Half-Century-Old RecordβHere's What It could Mean for Your Money in 2025
Here's What It could Mean for Your Money in 2025
2024 was the year America started to bet on everything
If it feels like everybody's betting nowadays, it's because a whole lot of people are. 2024 was the year companies from sportsbooks to prediction markets to trading apps asked, "Wanna bet?" And Americans responded with a resounding yes.
The ground has shifted on gambling in the US in recent years as it's become easier than ever to try your luck at, well, a lot of things. In a survey conducted in July and August for the American Gaming Association, 55% of surveyed adults said they had participated in some sort of gambling over the past year, up from 49% in 2023. Americans are expected to wager some $150 billion on sports this year, up from about $120 billion in 2023. People bet tens of millions of dollars on the 2024 election, with companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi raking in big bucks. The trading platform Robinhood got into presidential-election betting, and it says it's looking into sports gambling now, too.
It's not just explicit betting, either. A lot of "investing" looks very much like gambling nowadays. There's an increasing acknowledgment that the point of bitcoin is really "number go up" (and down), that it's a speculative investment without much of a use case. Small-time investors doing options trading on platforms such as Robinhood aren't banking on a stock's underlying value; they're just guessing at where it's headed over the next little while. And the meme coins are just complete casinolike chaos, full of pump and dumps and rug pulls and meteoric rises and falls.
Even if you're not putting money on the line, it's almost impossible to escape the proliferation of gambling. There are unceasing commercials during sports games and a deluge of ads on our phones. Culturally, the broader acceptance of gambling is on the upswing β betting's positioned as cool and exciting and fun. There's not so much focus on the downsides yet. Betting is in its Marlboro Man era, and a lot of people are dealt in.
"There's definitely a younger cohort that is trying to β I don't want to say get rich fast, but they're looking for ways to get around the system," Chad Beynon, an equity analyst at Macquarie, said.
That can take a lot of formats β betting on a football game or piling into a meme coin because some guy on X said it was the next big thing. It sounds more appealing, though not more realistic, than a traditional 9-to-5 job. That's especially pertinent in an economy where people don't feel particularly optimistic about their prospects. Instead of a "vibecession," maybe what's happening is a "vibe-screw-it."
The most novel β and notable β gambling story in the US remains the explosion of sports betting. Since the Supreme Court in 2018 struck down a federal law prohibiting it, 38 states plus Washington, DC, have legalized wagering on games. The past few years have been a land grab of sorts, with companies such as DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, MGM, and even Disney (via ESPN) trying to get a piece of what they hope will be a very lucrative pie.
"That's the one that opened the floodgates in terms of creating a large addressable market and throwing a spotlight on the scale of the US online-gambling opportunity," Chris Grove, a sports-gambling-industry investor at Acies Investments, said.
The top two operators β DraftKings and FanDuel β have managed to amass a lot of market share and start to venture into other arenas, such as lotteries and iGaming, the industry term for online blackjack, roulette, and slot machines, which is thus far legal in only a handful of states. Adjacent products around daily fantasy sports, such as PrizePicks, have taken hold as well. It "just shows that consumers are clamoring for something," Grove said.
The takeoff of sports gambling has many businesses looking around and wondering just what else people are willing to bet on.
There's still room for growth in sports betting, though it's increasingly limited. There are some big holdout markets, such as Texas and California, and only about one-fifth of the population has bet on a sport in the past year, according to the AGA. But the holdout states are holding out for a reason, and at least some aren't likely to change course. Companies sort of have to look elsewhere to get people to open their wallets.
"For the business model to work, you probably need to cross-sell to other areas," Beynon said.
The takeoff of sports gambling has many businesses looking around and wondering just what else people are willing to bet on β and, in many cases, guessing correctly that the list of possibilities is long. Maybe sports betting isn't for you. That's fine, but what about an online lottery? Or sweepstakes casinos? Or a slot machine on your phone? Or the next Treasury secretary of the United States?
"The minute that you got widespread regulated online gambling in the US, it was inevitable that nontraditional stakeholders were going to look at getting in on the action," Grove said. "Robinhood is one example of that, and prediction markets are one of the most likely vectors for that expansion, but they're far from the only brand or the only vector that we're going to see explore online gambling in years ahead."
Beyond sports betting, 2024 was a monumental year for prediction markets and crypto. People spent millions of dollars betting on the election, despite the legal gray area around political gambling. On Polymarket, players β though not Americans β can bet whether the US will confirm aliens exist or if Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare's CEO, will plead guilty. In Cryptoland, bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, and despite constant scams, the meme-coin market is as alive as ever. These are not legitimate investments; they're bets people are making that they can get out before everyone else. (Sometimes, in the pump and dump, you think you're the dumper when you're really the dumpee.) Given Donald Trump's election, it doesn't look like tough regulation is coming for the crypto space anytime soon, so hold on to your hats.
Broadly, gambling has been normalized across American culture. Sports leagues used to be anxious about sports betting and worry it would turn off fans. Now they've seen the dollar signs and embraced it. The vibe around elections betting is that it's kind of cool and smart, a wisdom-of-the-crowds way to prove your political chops. With crypto, the hope is everybody's going to get their bag sooner or later, or if not, at least they think they're in on the joke.
"Every consumer has different motivations for why they're doing it," said Steve Ruddock, a gambling-industry analyst and consultant and the author of Straight to the Point, a newsletter about gambling. "Some are doing it purely for entertainment. Some are doing it as a time sink. Some small percentage are doing it because they're addicted."
It's easy β and responsible β to worry about the harms of gambling culture. There's evidence to suggest sports betting in the US is getting people into trouble with debt collectors, leading to missed car payments, and may even cause a spike in bankruptcies. When people are betting on a baseball game, they're not putting money into long-term investments, and households that are already under financial strain are harder hit. And whatever negative impacts occur aren't limited to gamblers themselves.
"The harms radiate out into families, into the economy, into many sectors of social and cultural life," said Rachel Volberg, a professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who researches gambling. Most research suggests about 1% of adults develop a gambling disorder. But just because you don't meet the clinical criteria for a disorder doesn't mean all is fine and dandy, Volberg said. "To only talk about the tip of the iceberg means you miss 90% of the impacts," she told me.
Gambling companies have mechanisms in place to ensure responsible gambling. (Not to mention that some companies offering crypto and high-flying stock trading say this is not gambling at all.) Reasonable minds can question how effective those are. In the US, there's a lot of impetus placed on individual gamblers to police themselves and set their own limits, and even if you do reach your limit, you can move on to another app.
The harms radiate out into families, into the economy, into many sectors of social and cultural life.
The sudden boom has pushed public health experts in the US and worldwide to sound the alarm on gambling. A recent report from The Lancet Public Health commission on gambling found that nearly 450 million people around the globe have experienced at least one behavioral symptom or negative consequence from gambling.
"The answer, globally, that the commission puts forth is, 'Come on, guys, wake up,'" said Malcolm Sparrow, a professor of the practice of public management at Harvard and one of the members of the commission. "We are in a very rapid growth period. The assumption is that legalization, which is already running a pace, is going to just continue until it's ubiquitous. And we are not paying enough attention to gambling-related harms."
Here is the thing, though: Gambling is fun. Generally, people do have a right to use their money how they please, and most can gamble responsibly. Exactly how to regulate and where to draw lines is complicated, whether you're talking about an in-game bet or an obscure penny stock or a meme coin that makes zero sense. But public health experts say it's important to figure out where to draw it.
"On many other public health issues, we are, to a degree, paternalistic," Sparrow said. "You must wear a seatbelt. We don't sell alcohol to kids."
Perhaps the weird thing about the current moment is once you start to notice the prevalence of gambling in a few places, you start to see it everywhere β I see it in my own life. I was at a New York Rangers game the other weekend, and not one but two betting apps were advertising on the ice. On a recent trip to New Jersey, I took advantage of an online casino, which is legal in the state. I lost $10 on blackjack in a matter of minutes. Beyond sports, many of my friends and family are at least dabbling in crypto and have taken note of prediction markets. One group I know is talking about organizing a party-bus trip to Atlantic City, New Jersey, just because.
It's hard not to wonder what's going on in culture now that gambling has gone from a no-no to out in the open and even hip. What's getting its claws in us, and why is it working right now in particular?
Natasha SchΓΌll, a cultural anthropologist at New York University and the author of "Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas," told me she'd identified four shared criteria of products that hook and hold us, from betting apps to dating apps, which are a little bit like gambling. They're antisocial and solitary, so you can get lost in your own flow. They offer continuous, fast feedback, which serves as reinforcement. They're unpredictable, so you can't be exactly sure when a reward will come. And they never come to a close or resolve β you just keep going. The result is that people get pulled into what she describes as a gambling "machine zone," where the world sort of falls away, and people fall into a rhythm of go, then again, then again.
"There certainly is a cultural story to tell here too, where we're living in a context of uncertainty in the world, whether politically or environmental or economic uncertainty," SchΓΌll said. When you gamble, you're diving into uncertainty and chance, but also in an ordered, calm, digital environment that's cordoned off from the outside world. "It might start being about thrill and suspense and imagining a big win or imagining that you're having an encounter with chance," she said. "But once you put yourself in the seat, so to speak, and start having the interaction, the formatting of it and the flow of it gives you this other thing. It gives you this way to modulate your affect and go into a zone that allows you to avoid life."
It could be the case that in 10 years, we'll look back at the current moment and realize this was all fine β it was OK that people were gambling a bunch, that even major athletes were getting caught up in it. Hey, maybe even the meme-coin stuff will work out. The likelier scenario is that we wonder what we were even doing. Or we realize we probably should've done things a little differently.
Volberg, from UMass Amherst, has been studying gambling for 40 years and has seen this story play out before in other countries. Some form of gambling gets the go-ahead, it takes off, and there's a lag in realizing the consequences and getting guardrails in place appropriately.
"It's a pattern I've seen over and over again where it's after the fact," she said. "And if you don't start monitoring impacts before the actual new form of gambling is being used, you really have no idea what the baseline looked like."
The argument many companies will make is that people will gamble anyway β on sports, on elections, on whatever β and that making it legal brings that activity into the light, gets it some oversight, and generates tax revenue for the states. That's true, but also, once the government greenlights it, people who otherwise wouldn't gamble start. It's impossible to argue everyone on FanDuel right now was betting on sports on some offshore account 10 years ago. If it were that easy, sportsbooks wouldn't be investing so much in advertising to draw people in. On the meme coins, I mean, if you got bamboozled by the "Hawk Tuah" girl's crypto shenanigans, that's at least a little bit on you. But also, you probably deserve some protection next time. (But seriously, next time, maybe think that one over a bit more.)
In the meantime, may the odds be ever in your favor, because we're not getting out of gambling-palooza anytime soon.
Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.
Costco says it's seeing a shift in how much people eat at home vs. at restaurants
- Costco said it's seeing a boost in meat and produce sales.
- Costco's finance chief said in the Q1 2025 earnings call that there was a shift toward "food at home."
- The retailer posted strong growth this quarter, with sales increasing 7.5% from the year before.
Americans are swapping dinners out for nights in, Costco said in its 2025 first-quarter results.
"I would say that we are seeing what we think is a little bit of a shift from food away from home to food at home," Costco's finance chief, Gary Millerchip, said in the company's Q1 2025 earnings call on Thursday.
He said the trend was "certainly reflected in strong meat and produce sales."
Customers showed a "gravitation towards those lower price per pound items across categories like poultry cuts of beef and pork as well," he said.
He added that international food items, such as "Synear pork soup dumplings, Sona Masoori Rice, and Hot Pot Beef Sliced Rolls," were also seeing "strong momentum."
The wholesale chain, which operates on a membership model, reported a strong quarter. It reported $60.99 billion in sales, an increase of 7.5% from the previous year.
Membership numbers increased by 7.2% compared to last year, with Costco ending the quarter with almost 139 million membership cardholders.
The company's stock is up nearly 50% since the start of the year.
Costco's comments on Americans' dining habits echo those made by other fast food chains and grocery retailers this year. They come as inflation and high food prices leave Americans looking for ways to save on costs.
"Consumers are choosing to stay at home or look for cheaper alternatives than more expensive sit-down restaurants," Jefferies analysts wrote in a July note.
The CFO of McDonald's told analysts at the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference in March that lower-income consumers "are just choosing to eat at home more often."
In June, the fast food chain launched a $5 value meal to try to win back some customers. Its rivals, Taco Bell and Burger King, quickly followed suit.
And the country's largest grocer, Walmart, told CNBC in May that the rising price of eating out has pushed more people into its stores to buy groceries.
"It's roughly 4.3 times more expensive to eat out than it is to eat at home," Walmart's finance chief, John David Rainey, told CNBC. "And that's benefiting our business."
Costco didn't respond to a request for comment.
South Korea's economy would boom if its president is impeached, research firm says
- South Korea's President Yoon faces likely impeachment after a "botched coup" attempt, TS Lombard said.
- The firm predicts a new election could boost South Korea's economy and lead to friendlier relations with China.
- A Democratic People's Party win may also increase fiscal spending and improve GDP growth, TS Lombard said.
A knock-on effect of South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol's "botched coup" attempt earlier this week could be a stronger economy, according to GlobalData TS Lombard.
In a Wednesday note, research analyst Rory Green said the martial law episode that unraveled earlier this week suggests President Yoon will be impeached and replaced soon.
"We think Yoon's position is untenable: impeachment (if not this week then soon) followed by fresh presidential elections is highly likely," Green said
President Yoon is on track to be the least popular president in Korean history, according to data from Gallup, cited by Green.
If Green's prediction proves accurate, the center-left Democratic People's Party (DPP) will likely field a presidential candidate who would win an imminent election.
And that could usher in a new wave of economic growth for South Korea, in part driven by the potential for friendlier relations between South Korea and China.
"A DPP president would increase fiscal expenditure boosting H2/25 activity and likely tilt foreign policy towards closer ties with Beijing and Pyongyang," Green explained.
Green said there is headroom for South Korea's economy to grow from its current GDP rate of an estimated 2.2%, which is below its average post-pandemic growth rate of 2.75%.
"A relatively quick political resolution would enable an emergency budget. More expansive fiscal spending in conjunction with another 50bps of policy rate cuts in H1/25 nudges up our GDP forecast to 2.1%," Green said.
Alternatively, Green said South Korea's economic growth rate would nudge lower if a presidential election is delayed past April.
According to the note, South Korea's parliament needs just nine more votes to secure the president's impeachment, assuming all 192 members of President Yoon's opposition party vote for impeachment.
- Latest News
- BlackRock is buying HPS for $12 billion. Here's what's behind Larry Fink's year of blockbuster deals.
BlackRock is buying HPS for $12 billion. Here's what's behind Larry Fink's year of blockbuster deals.
- BlackRock has agreed to buy private credit firm HPS Investment Partners.
- HPS is another major private markets deal for the $11.5 trillion money manager.
- BlackRock, known for its ETFs, is hoping a shift to private markets will drive growth.
Larry Fink is looking to close 2024 as he started it β by announcing a big acquisition that brings BlackRock closer to dominating private market investing.
BlackRock is set to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit behemoth managing $148 billion, in an all-stock deal worth around $12 billion, the firms announced Tuesday.
Fink, BlackRock's chief executive and cofounder, who built the world's largest asset manager with $11.5 trillion in assets by packaging public markets into cheap funds for the masses, has been very vocal about the firm's push into the profitable private markets.
This shift in strategy could lead to a more valuable BlackRock, which might just be enough for Fink, who turned 72 last month, to finally pass on the reins to his yet-to-be-named successor.
In January, the firm announced that it would buy private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners, with about $170 billion in assets, for about $12.5 billion in cash and stock. The deal, its biggest one since it bought Barclays's asset management business in 2009, closed in October. In June it agreed to buy data giant Preqin, which it hopes will help bring some of these more complex private strategies to a broader audience.
In addition to the HPS talks, the FT has reported that BlackRock is eyeing a stake in Izzy Englander's $70 billion hedge fund Millennium Management.
BlackRock is not new to reshaping itself through acquisition. The Barclays deal gave the firm iShares and helped it become the passive investing giant it now is.
"I do not want us to be comfortable in our business model," Fink said during the firm's investor day last summer. "I want to make sure we're questioning our business model and we are focusing on how to best serve our clients, and if we truly believe there is some great need that we need to do, we are going to reimagine who we are in our business model."
Acquiring HPS could be another "transformational" deal for the company, helping it reach the same scale it has public equities and bonds in private markets. HPS will push its alternative assets to more than $600 billion.
BlackRock's private credit business will now have a combined $220 billion in client assets. The deal is expected to increase private market fee-paying assets under management by 40% and management fees by 35%, BlackRock said.
Meet HPS Investment
HPS was founded by CEO Scott Kapnick, Goldman Sachs' former head of investment banking, along with Scot French and Michael Patterson in 2007 as a unit within JPMorgan called Highbridge Capital Management. Principals from the firm bought it out in 2016 after the bank's appetite for high-risk loans waned.
The three will now join BlackRock's global executive committee and lead a new unit combining HPS and BlackRock's existing private credit business.
The secretive firm has been at the forefront of the private credit boom, which resulted from the 2008 financial crisis and banks' withdrawal from risky lending. Private players moved in to make loans to companies when Wall Street giants were reluctant to.
"Our competitors refer to us as the nerds of private credit and we take no offense," French told Bloomberg in an interview last November.
The firm, which was previously working toward an initial public offering, caters to mostly institutional investors and has more than 760 employees in offices around the world, according to its website.
How it fits with BlackRock's ambitions
BlackRock brought in more assets in the third quarter than ever before, mostly down to its index funds, but in its October earnings call the firm's leaders were already focused on its future growth engine β GIP.
GIP is expected to add $250 million in management fees in the fourth quarter alone.
"This is a revenue growth story," Martin Small, BlackRock's chief financial officer said during that call." Private equity and credit investments are much more expensive than BlackRock's usual roster of funds and are in high demand from institutions like pensions and endowments as well as ultra-wealthy investors.
While BlackRock has long had an alternatives investing unit, until recently, its private markets assets were meaningfully smaller than those of the main players in the space, such as Apollo and KKR.
It's tried growing through acquisition in this space in the past. In 2018, BlackRock bought a small credit manager, Tennenbaum Capital Partners, which at that time had about $9 billion in committed client capital, but saw a number of investment professionals exit.
BlackRock expects the private debt market to more than double to $4.5 trillion by 2030.
While private credit's high yields and returns have increasingly attracted wealth managers and institutions alike, the deal will likely strengthen relationships with insurance firms, which have a longer investing horizon.
Ana Arsov, Moody's Ratings global head of private credit said the acquisition is "catapulting" BlackRock into the ranks of the top 5 private credit managers and significantly advances its private-market growth goals.
"Blackrock's large installed base of insurance client assets offers a prime opportunity to cross-sell HPS's capabilities, Arsov said. "Additionally, BlackRock's extensive distribution network of institutional investors and wealth managers opens new markets for HPS."
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- Chinese consumers are on a health kick — and Lululemon is reaping the rewards
Chinese consumers are on a health kick — and Lululemon is reaping the rewards
- Lululemon has seen sales slide in North America, but it's thriving in China.
- Stiff competition and product mishaps hampered consumer demand for Lululemon in the US and Canada.
- But in China, changing health habits and a struggling luxury sector are helping to boost sales.
China is in its health and wellness era, offering Lululemon a ray of hope as the brand struggles to engage consumers back in the US and Canada, where it was founded.
In its most recent earnings release in August, Lululemon reported that same-store sales in North America fell by 3% during the second quarter versus the year before. The region's share of the company's net revenue during the quarter also dropped to 73% from 78% in 2023.
The results came a month after the company saw its shares slide following its decision to pause sales of its new leggings line after the products were criticized by some shoppers for being poorly designed and unflattering.
Yet, over in China, Lululemon is on the up and up.
The brand, known for selling $100 yoga pants, reported that same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21% in the second quarter, generating a net revenue of $314.2 million β up from 34% from Q2 in 2023. The brand is due to release Q3 earnings later this week.
Lululemon, a premium activewear brand founded in Canada in 1998, seemingly found respite in a Chinese retail ecosystem that has, for the most part, been sluggish as the real estate crisis and rising youth unemployment dampen consumer spending this year.
While China's economic slowdown is throwing many brands off their game β particularly those in the luxury sector β the conditions are ripe for a brand like Lululemon to thrive.
As luxury takes a hit, health and wellness is taking priority in China
Martin Roll, a global business strategist and senior advisor at consulting giant McKinsey said Luluemon's success in China speaks to a trend of consumers focusing on health and wellness in tough economic times.
Roll said it's natural for consumers to realign their focus on their well-being when the economy takes a hit. And while health as a concept is nothing new in China, modern industries built around it are, he added.
"China is kind of waking up in terms of health," Roll said, adding that Chinese consumers are catching up with health habits like yoga, gym, and physical welfare that North American consumers have followed for the last 20 years.
Moreover, in the US and Canada, the company faces increased competition from lower-cost rivals such as Athleta and Fabletics but competition is less steep in China.
Lululemon might also be hitting the spot for Chinese consumers who are shying away from luxury spending but still want to indulge themselves occasionally.
"It's a premium brand, but it's accessible; it's not a Birkin bag," Roll said.
Hooking Chinese Gen Zers and millennials
Olivia Plotnick, founder of Wai Social, an advertising and social media firm in Shanghai, said Lululemon's strategy and positioning in China are yielding positive results as younger generations redefine their spending habits.
As BI previously reported, trend forecaster WGSN said an emerging "rural revival" trend among young people in the Asia Pacific region, predominantly China, placing greater value on a slower-paced lifestyle, sustainability, and health and wellness.
The trend might present a challenge for some companies, but Lululemon has put in the work to be in a prime position, Plotnick said.
"Lululemon entered China with a long-term goal and has invested in a strategic approach to innovation, lifestyle resonance, brand ambassadorship, social media engagement, and global resource integration," she said.
Through in-store activities and nationwide events promoted by influencers, the brand focused on "community building" in China, she added.
The efforts are now paying off, she said, as the health and wellness industry continues to grow β despite the economic slowdown.
"They have done an excellent job at making wellness aspirational yet approachable for younger consumers who tend to consider brand story, quality, craftsmanship, and environmental impact in their purchase decision," she said.
- Latest Tech News From Engadget
- Bang & Olufsen reveals its latest premium earbuds, the $499 Beoplay Eleven
Bang & Olufsen reveals its latest premium earbuds, the $499 Beoplay Eleven
Bang & Olufsen has unveiled its latest set of premium earbuds. The Beoplay Eleven earphones are the successor to the Beoplay EX from 2022. The brand says the latest model is inspired by its new Beoplay H100 headphones as well as fine jewelry, as it has a "gem-like shine."
The earbuds retain the AirPods-style stem design of their predecessors and they're available in two colorways, Natural Aluminium and Copper Tone. They feature B&O's signature polished aluminium. The charging case is said to be durable and light, while it supports Qi wireless charging.
According to B&O, the Beoplay Eleven has the most advanced active noise cancellation tech in any earbuds to date. It says this model delivers double the level of noise reduction at low frequencies compared with the Beoplay EX, along with more optimization for various ear sizes and shapes. The brand claims that the earbuds have a "natural" transparency mode aided by an upgraded array of six microphones that are said to have significantly reduced hiss.
B&O added extra holes to the stem and fine mesh padding to ease wind pressure and offer more open sound. Using the accompanying app, you can activate a wind guard feature to filter out wind noise and help you remain more aware of your surroundings. The earphones have an IP57 rating for water resistance too.
The earbuds are slated to run for up to eight hours on a single charge with ANC off and six hours with the feature on. The charging case adds up to 14 or 20 hours of listening time respectively for each mode, per B&O. It claims that charging for 20 minutes will add about 1.75 hours of listening time.Β
Meanwhile, the batteries are replaceable. That's a welcome touch, though it's to make the Beoplay Eleven compliant with EU sustainability regulations that will come into force in 2027.
Of course, since they're from B&O, the earbuds won't come cheap. The Beoplay Eleven earphones cost $499. The Natural Aluminum model is available today, while the Copper Tone variant is expected to be in stock by late December.
- Latest News
- Fears of trade wars, volatility, and higher inflation: What analysts are saying about Trump's tariff plans
Fears of trade wars, volatility, and higher inflation: What analysts are saying about Trump's tariff plans
- Donald Trump's latest tariff threats have set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street.
- The president-elect said he would impose tariffs on exports from Mexico and Canada, as well as China.
- Analysts warned of a trade war, volatility, steeper inflation, and a flight to safety in markets.
Donald Trump rattled financial markets late Monday by warning he would slap 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian exports to the US until the flow of illicit drugs and illegal migrants into America stops. He also said he'd impose another 10% tariff on imports from China until the drug problem is resolved, in addition to the 60% he proposed during the election campaign.
Analysts said the president-elect's latest threats could presage tariffs on other countries' exports and escalate into a full-scale trade war. They also said it could fuel volatile trading and a flight to haven assets in markets. There's also the threat of stoking inflation, meaning interest rates stay higher for longer.
Here's what analysts and commentators are saying:
George Saravelos, global cohead of FX research at Deutsche Bank
"Free trade agreements are not safe. Canada and Mexico are part of the USMCA which was negotiated by Trump himself. It is clear that even countries with existing agreements with the US can be subject to tariffs.
"The softer the market reaction, the greater the likelihood of more tariffs. The equity market reaction has so far been very benign, we would argue likely on the back of the transactional interpretation. That US domestic small-caps have been leading the recent market rally also helps reduce the impact. The first Trump administration showed that the more benign the market reaction, the greater the likelihood of further escalation."
Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell
"If those tariffs are at the top of his agenda, there is now an elevated risk they will be closely followed by punishing tariffs on other countries. Trump clearly wants to make his mark and show he's the boss.
"There has been a view among some investors that Trump's tariff talk was a negotiating tactic, a threat rather than a promise. That might still end up the case, but it's clear that the president-elect has no intention of backing down for now."
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown
"European equity markets braced for a sharp drop on Tuesday as Trump's tariff threats against China, Mexico, and Canada sent shockwaves through global sentiment.
"The president-elect's scorched-earth approach has stoked fears of a trade war, with investors increasingly wary that Europe could be next in his crosshairs."
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group
"These tariffs will not only drive up costs for companies but also fuel inflation, which could lead to further tightening of monetary policy.
"Markets hate uncertainty, and the prospect of a full-blown trade war will send investors scrambling to reassess their exposure."
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management
"While investors are once again on edge following Trump's latest tariff threats, we think markets also recognize that the risks of higher inflation and interest rates are implicit constraints on his policy agenda, with eventual policy outcomes potentially less inflationary than some investors previously feared.
"We see further volatility ahead, but we also expect US Treasury yields to fall in the year ahead following a 65-basis-point rise over the past two months."
Ruben Ferreira, FlowCommunity
"The medium to long-term outlook could shift if trade tensions escalate, potentially disrupting international trade relations.
"Such developments may heighten market uncertainty, driving increased demand for safe-haven assets such as gold as investors seek protection against market risks and economic instability."