• The yield on US 30-year Treasurys rose above 5% on Monday.
• The increase follows Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating on Friday.
• Stock futures are down in premarket trading.

The US lost its last remaining top-tier credit rating on Friday, and investors responded on Monday by reviving the "sell America" trade.

Everything from bonds to stocks to the US dollar ticked lower to start the week, with markets assessing the impact of Moody's decision to downgrade the US debt rating from Aaaa to Aa1.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up as much as 12 basis points to 5.02%, the highest level since late 2023.

The 10-year yield also rose about 10 basis points to surpass 4.5%. Bond yields rise when prices decline.

"If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day," Jim Reid, managing director and head of global macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note on Monday.

The previous triple-A rating signifies top-tier creditworthiness, with the US at minimal risk of not being able to meet its obligations to debt investors. Other countries with the top rating include the European Union, Canada, and Germany.

Aa1 is the second-highest rating and still indicates a very low credit risk of a borrower.

The ratings agency's decision highlights a growing concern in the bond market. Market pros tell Business Insider that any fiscal package that adds substantially to the deficit could be met with protest from "bond vigilantes" and send yields spiking to painful levels.

"The combination of diminished appetite to buy US assets and the rigidity of a US fiscal process that locks in very high deficits is what is making the market very nervous," George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's head of FX research, said in a note on Monday.

He added that a key problem for the US was bond and currency markets failing to properly price in fiscal risks.

Here's how other assets were moving on Monday.

US stocks

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 285 points.

"The US credit rating downgrade adds to a long list of uncertainties that the stock market is weighing right now, including tariff, fiscal, inflation and economic ones," Clark Geranen, the chief market strategist at CalBay investments, wrote in a note.

"US-related stocks and investment trusts dominated the list of losers on Monday morning in London, while precious metals miners were higher as gold and silver prices moved up and the dollar weakened," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a Monday note.

"Significantly, the US 30-year Treasury yield flashed a warning signal as it hit the 5% mark for the first time since April, with the proposed tax cuts making their way through Congress, expected in some quarters to increase the US deficit."

The dollar

The US dollar continued to decline amid the sell-off in US assets. The US dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of other currencies, traded around 100 on Monday, nearly 1% lower than its intraday peak on Friday. The index is down 7% since the start of the year.

In the past, US credit downgrades have had a "short-lived" impact on the value of the dollar, according to Kit Juckes, a chief FX strategist at Societe Generale.

"At most, it's something else to nibble away at the confidence of foreign holders of US assets," Juckes said of the downgrade in a note on Monday. "For now, the economic data is just about keeping the idea of US exceptionalism alive, but if the economy does weaken in the coming months as higher tariffs finally arrive, hindsight geniuses will look back at days like today and say it was obvious the dollar was setting itself up for a sizeable fall."

• Trump took to Truth Social Friday morning to again call on the Fed to cut rates.
• Trump claimed there's "no inflation," but prices are still rising.
• Consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in March, per the latest inflation data.

President Donald Trump says there's "no inflation," but the latest data shows the battle against rising prices is still going on, and they're rising faster than the Federal Reserve would like.

In a post on Truth Social on Friday morning, the president pointed to inflation, gas prices, and mortgage rates all being down, and reiterated calls for the Fed to cut interest rates.

"Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, lowest in years, groceries (and eggs!) down, energy down, mortgage rates down, employment strong, and much more good news, as Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs," Trump wrote, emphasizing that the economy was only in a "TRANSITION STAGE" after he rolled out his slate of tariffs last month. "Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!," he added.

Trump's comments came shortly after the April jobs report, which showed that hiring was better than expected last month. His post nodded to cooling prices, but consumer prices have still been rising, and were up 2.4% year-over-year in March. That's above the Fed's 2% target.

• Apple releases earnings quarterly.
• On calls with investors, CEO Tim Cook addresses Apple's results and trajectory.
• The Q1 2025 call was dominated by discussions about Apple Intelligence.

Apple, the tech powerhouse behind the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and more, and services like Apple TV+, Apple Music, and the App Store, releases its earnings quarterly.

Typically, Apple CEO Tim Cook joins the calls to reflect on the results and discuss the company's future trajectory. Cook and Apple's CFO field questions from analysts to keep investors in the know about the company's financial standing.

The calls usually cover topics like the revenue of Apple products. The iPhone almost always makes up most of the company's overall sales, but it fell in the most recent quarter from the year prior.

Apple's Q2 earnings will be reported on May 1, 2025.

Here's a breakdown of Apple's recent earnings.

Apple Q1 earnings 2025

Apple reported its fiscal first-quarter results on January 30, 2025, beating earnings and revenue estimates. The firm pulled a record $124.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 4% year-over-year. Earnings-per-share came in at $2.40, above estimates of $2.35.

Revenue in China, though, missed estimates. The iPhone maker pulled $18.51 billion in revenue from its business in China, lower than the expected $21.57 billion.

The firm has yet to roll out Apple Intelligence in the region, which has contributed to the decline in sales, Cook told CNBC ahead of the earnings call.

On the earnings call, Cook added that he was optimistic about new products Apple has in the pipeline, like newer versions of the iPhone.

He also expressed optimism about AI.

"I do believe it will go mainstream," Cook said about artificial intelligence. "I'm getting feedback from people using different features today. Keep in mind that on the iPhone side of our business, you either have to have an iPhone 15 Pro or iPhone 16 to use Apple Intelligence. As that base grows, the usage will continue to grow."

Apple Q4 earnings 2024

Apple reported its fourth-quarter earnings in October 2024, beating revenue and profit estimates. Revenue for the quarter came in at $94.9 billion, slightly above the expected $94.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.64, above the estimated $1.60.

The company missed its targets for Greater China. Revenue in the region came in at $15.03 billion, below the estimated $15.8 billion.

On the earnings call, Cook said Apple planned to roll out more AI features in the "coming months," adding that he believed Apple Intelligence was creating a "new era" for the company.

He dodged a question about the impact of the presidential election and potential tariffs on Apple, adding that he didn't want to speculate.

Apple Q3 earnings 2024

Apple held its earnings call for its fiscal Q3 in August 2024, beating estimates. Revenue for the quarter came in at $85.7 billion, above the expected $84.4 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.40, above the expected $1.35.

iPhone sales may have slowed in Q3, but services soared, and the iPad lineup launched in May received shoutouts from Apple execs. iPad revenue was up 24% year-over-year in the quarter.

Apple Intelligence, announced at the Worldwide Developers Conference in June, was a big talking point during the call. Cook said that its rollout would begin in 2024 and continue in 2025.

Cook said the company was "optimistic" about AI.

Apple Q2 earnings 2024

Apple held its earnings call for its fiscal Q2 in May 2024. Revenue came in at $90.7 billion, slightly above estimates of $90.3 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.53, above the expected $1.50.

Sales in Greater China were better than expected, but overall iPhone sales fell 10% from the year prior. Apple also announced its biggest stock buyback ever at $110 billion.

Cook praised the Vision Pro headset, which was released on February 2, and said that Apple was "off to a good start" with the device, which was its first major new product line since the Apple Watch.

Apple earnings history

Apple's net revenue for the 2024 fiscal year totaled $391 billion, up 2% year-over-year. Its net income fell slightly to $93.7 billion, down 3% year-over-year.

Apple currently pays a dividend of $0.25 per share.

Jacqui Kenyon contributed to an earlier version of this report.

• Amazon's earnings came in stronger than expected for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• But the company's guidance for the upcoming quarter was slightly light.
• The retail giant says it expects to spend over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.

Amazon, the massive tech company that provides e-commerce, cloud, streaming and digital advertising services, releases its earnings quarterly.

Andy Jassy, the Amazon CEO, joins the calls to report results and answer questions.

Amazon's Q1 2025 earnings will be reported on April 28, 2025.

Here's a breakdown of Amazon's earnings from the last year.

Amazon Q4 earnings 2024

Amazon reported fourth-quarter earnings in February 2025, beating analysts' expectations. Net sales for the quarter came in at $187.7 billion, slightly above the expected $187.3 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.86, compared to the expected $1.50.

The company's guidance for the upcoming quarter was slightly light. It forecast revenue to come in between $151 billion and $155.5 billion for the next reporting period, lower than the expected guidance of $158.6 billion.

CFO Brian Olsavsky said the company expected to spend around $105 billion on capital expenditures in 2025. Most of the spending was expected to "support demand for our AI services, as well as tech infrastructure to support our North America and international segments, Olsavsky said on the company's earnings call.

Amazon's stock price slid after the report. As of April 2025, shares were down 18% year-to-date.

Amazon Q3 earnings 2024

Amazon reported its third-quarter earnings in October 2024, beating revenue forecasts and delivering strong guidance for the fourth quarter. Net sales came in at $158.9 billion, north of the expected $157.3 billion.

The retail giant forecast sales for the next quarter to come in between $181.5 billion to $188.5 billion, compared to the expected guidance of $186.3 billion.

Olsavksy attributed the company's growth to rising Amazon Prime memberships as well as "faster delivery speeds," which helped fuel sales of everyday items, he said on the earnings call.

Amazon Q2 earnings 2024

Amazon reported second-quarter earnings in August 2024 that largely missed analysts' expectations. Net sales for the quarter came in slightly lower than expected, as did the company's third-quarter forecast for sales and operating income.

Amazon shoppers were looking for good deals and being more "cautious," Olsavsky said on the company's earnings call. That weighed on Amazon, especially during the company's Prime Day sales event in July.

Over the summer, a variety of retailers reported that people were reducing their budgets for fast food, home decor, and other nice-to-have items.

Strong demand pushed Amazon Web Services' sales and operating income higher during the quarter, though Olsavsky said that its profit margins would "fluctuate over time" as the company invests in AI-driven technology.

Amazon's stock price slid after the report.

Amazon Q1 earnings 2024

Amazon beat analysts' estimates for net sales and earnings per share when it reported first-quarter results in April 2024. 

AWS customers signed up "for longer deals" and made "bigger commitments" during the quarter, Jassy said on a call after Amazon reported its results. AWS net revenue was $25 billion during the quarter, beating expectations.

On the e-commerce side of the business, customers bought "a lot more consumables and everyday essentials," Olsavsky said on a call with reporters. Many of those items, such as sunscreen and pantry staples, are less profitable for Amazon than discretionary items, he said.

Amazon earnings history

Amazon's net sales totaled $673.9 billion in 2024, up 10% from the $574.7 billion in net sales in 2023.

Net income for the year rose to $59.2 billion, up 94% from 2023's net income of $30.4. In 2022, the company reported a net loss of $2.7 billion.

Amazon does not pay a dividend.

Jacqui Kenyon contributed to a previous version of this story.

Earlier this month, standing on the White House driveway, President Donald Trump hawked a fleet of gleaming Teslas with the kind of gusto normally reserved for his campaign rallies. Clutching handwritten notes about prices and models, he said, "I'm going to buy one because it's a great product, as good as it gets." Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO and a key figure in the administration, stood nearby.

Many assumed Musk's proximity to Trump would be a net positive. But his involvement with the DOGE office and its efforts to shrink the federal government have triggered an identity crisis within Tesla. Musk has been quietly shifting rightward for years. Public sentiment, analysts, and owners didn't turn until it became clear that DOGE was more than just a passing fancy — one with the power to affect millions of Americans.

To understand how Musk's foray into the federal government has threatened to upend Tesla's position as the world's most valuable automaker, Business Insider spoke with more than two dozen employees, investors, analysts, and customers.

As one former Tesla sales manager put it, "it feels like he's supporting someone that goes against Tesla's original mission."

Musk appears to have recognized the stakes. On Thursday, Tesla held a surprise after-hours all-hands that was livestreamed to the public from its Texas Gigafactory. It caught employees and investors off guard, and it appeared to be an attempt at damage control. Musk implored employees not to sell their stock and admitted that he had been "stretched pretty thin."

Tesla and Musk are used to dire predictions. Musk has said the company nearly collapsed during Model 3 "production hell," and critics have repeatedly declared the electric-car maker doomed over the past decade. Each time, Tesla has defied expectations and emerged stronger.

For some employees, analysts, and investors, Musk's political entanglements now represent a different challenge as the company's increasingly unpopular CEO becomes the face of government downsizing.

Tesla is at a tipping point.

Tesla's stock falls off a cliff

For the better part of a decade, Tesla has been a Wall Street phenomenon. Its stock surged over 1,000% in a five-year period as employees, investors, and customers remained loyal to one of the few successful green car companies. They were willing to overlook provocative tweets and missed deadlines in exchange for explosive growth.

Then came February.

What began as a gentle slide became a stock slump that JPMorgan analysts called the worst they had seen in the history of the auto industry. Its stock is down 31% year-to-date, despite a recent rebound following Musk's all-hands meeting. Howard Lutnick, Trump's commerce secretary, tried to stanch the bleeding, imploring Americans to invest in the company because "it'll never be this cheap again." Musk's net worth has also fallen by $129 billion since Trump's inauguration, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Tesla and Musk did not respond to requests for comment.

Musk has previously spoken out against the protests at Tesla facilities, and he told employees during the all-hands that investors needed to think long-term when it came to investing in Tesla. He touted the carmaker's future in robotics and self-driving technology and predicted that "Tesla will probably be the most valuable company in the world."

Last month, the Tesla investor Ross Gerber told BI that Tesla stock could fall as much as 50% in 2025, in part because the company was unlikely to reach its goal of launching a robotaxi service in Austin by June. Since then, the stock has fallen as much as 28%.

Even the longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives had a moment of concern. Musk "needs to take a step back, balance, and become CEO of Tesla again," the Wall Street analyst said. "Leaders need to lead." (Later, in a note to investors, Ives described Musk's surprise town hall as a "big step forward.")

Musk's commitment to DOGE — his private jets have landed near Tesla locations a handful of times since January 20, according to the plane-tracking site JetSpy, and he hasn't sent one of his signature companywide emails since June of last year — has been a particular source of angst for investors.

Several of the carmaker's key projects — including the robotaxi, its Optimus robot, and a $25,000 new car — are also major question marks.

At the same time, Tesla is facing more competition than ever before. Chinese manufacturers like BYD are undercutting Tesla on price while outpacing them in innovation. BYD on Monday said its sales topped $100 billion last year, outpacing Tesla. Last week it unveiled a charging station that it says is faster than Tesla's.

'People are on edge'

While Wall Street may be in a twist, many Tesla employees don't seem quite as worried — at least when it comes to the stock price. Others have expressed concerns about Musk's involvement in politics and its impact on Tesla.

"For anyone who's worked at Tesla this isn't anything new," one longtime Tesla employee said. "There's been so many ups and downs at Tesla, you get desensitized at a certain point." (Like several other people who spoke with BI for this story, the employee asked to remain anonymous.)

Elsewhere, cracks have started to appear.

In February, The New York Times reported that a Tesla manager, Jared Ottmann, was terminated after he criticized a social media post from Musk that referenced Nazi Germany. (In a statement, Ottmann directed BI to his attorney Jana Moser. Moser did not respond to a request for comment.)

BI spoke with two Tesla workers who left the company in recent weeks and five other employees who said they were looking for opportunities elsewhere. They all pointed to Musk's role in politics and what they felt was a move away from Tesla's original mission of building sustainable transportation.

"Morally, I'm not sure how much longer I can work for somebody like that," one engineer said.

Thomas Temme, a Tesla software engineer in Germany, told BI he and other German workers had talked among themselves about Musk's new political focus, both in the US and in his promotion of the AfD, a German right-wing political party.

In Europe, where workers have more protections than in the US, employees are still concerned they could face repercussions for speaking up to management against Musk.

"They don't speak up because they fear if they speak up, Elon might fire them or get rid of our whole department," Temme said.

One California-based worker described the internal corporate environment as "unsettling." More than a dozen workers have told BI over the past few months that there's been little conversation internally about Musk's role in government or the public outcry since Musk began campaigning for Trump last year.

"I think people are on edge and aren't quite sure who they can trust," one worker said. "We have a high prevalence of people on visas, and I think people are generally anxious about retribution."

Molotov cocktails and gunshots

Tesla salespeople and owners, it seems, are bearing the brunt of the public anger.

The carmaker reported several incidents of vandalism at its sales and service centers, including gunshots that blew out store windows, Superchargers that were set alight, and Molotov cocktails thrown at vehicles.

Three sales workers told BI they'd dealt with disgruntled customers and prank callers in recent weeks. They said they'd been encouraged by local management to avoid engaging with the protesters but hadn't received companywide communication about the protests.

"They're exercising their right to peaceful protest," one salesperson said. "As long as it doesn't cross into anything more we'll let them be."

Multiple Cybertruck owners also said they'd face growing hostility and harassment, from their cars getting hit by paintball guns and tagged with crude graffiti to being yelled at by other drivers. Recently, a webpage doxxed Tesla owners and said it would remove their personal information only if they agreed to sell their vehicles.

For those who want to sell, there's also bad news. Resale values for Teslas have fallen and are about $10,000 less than their non-Tesla EV counterparts, according to data from CarGurus. Kevin Roberts, the firm's director of economic and market intelligence, said there's also pressure on used Tesla prices because the market has been flooded with used electric cars after rental companies like Hertz have moved away from EVs.

New car sales aren't a bright spot, either. Key indicators show sales are slumping in multiple markets, including the US, where new Tesla registrations fell by 11% in January, based on data from S&P Global Mobility. In Europe, registrations fell across 25 European markets by an average of 44% in February, according to JATO Dynamics data.

Some Tesla owners told BI the protests had strengthened their support for Musk — one analyst suggested recently that red states could help salvage the company's sales. Many other owners are choosing to add anti-Elon stickers to their vehicles or ditch them entirely.

Scott Oran, a real estate developer from the Boston area, said he sold his Tesla in February "as a protest" against Musk and his work at DOGE. Another Tesla Model 3 owner, who asked to remain anonymous, said they decided to sell for fear that Musk's political activities could cause Tesla's plummeting resale values to drop even further.

Daniel Cavanaugh, an EV owner in Los Angeles, told BI he paid $4,000 in March to end the lease of his Model 3 five months early after becoming concerned about Musk's behavior and the possibility that EV subsidies might end under the Trump administration.

"I was actually considering getting another Tesla before the subsidies ended. But Elon's behavior was so vile I decided to shop around," Cavanaugh said. "Tesla's sales slump isn't temporary. Elon is driving away customers like me and driving us to discover his competitors — and we are not coming back."

'Underestimate him at your peril'

Since its founding, Tesla has teetered on the brink of extinction more than once.

"Musk has this sort of innate, though sometimes tardy, ability to course correct," Nancy Tengler, a Tesla shareholder, told Business Insider. After selling off her shares following Musk's pot-smoking appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast, Tengler said she learned her lesson when the stock surged in 2022.

"You underestimate him at your peril," she said.

The company's recent market performance hasn't scared everyone off. Ives is still bullish on the stock, as is Fabian Varcianna, a shareholder who still views Tesla's technology as revolutionary. He said he invested more during the March sell-off and plans to purchase an Optimus bot. Retail traders have been gobbling the stock up as it craters.

Alexandra Merz, a Tesla investor and influencer more commonly known by her X handle @TeslaBoomerMama, told BI she thought the stock might have hit its low point last week but could dip further. She sees it as an excellent buying opportunity because of Tesla's "milestones in the next five years."

Merz says she advises prospective investors to look beyond short-term volatility. "For Tesla, in particular, you really need a horizon," she said.

Even with the recent crash, Tesla stock is up 63% compared with this time last year. It's still the most valuable automotive company in the world. Musk's status as "first buddy" could still pay off. Lutnick and Trump's sales pitches and the surprise Austin all-hands seemed to calm the waters.

The moment, though, is perilous. Musk's popularity has fallen in tandem with his status as a target for public vitriol toward the administration.

"It's never been a political symbol, and that's what Teslas have become," Ives said. "It's become a brand crisis."

Even Musk seems surprised.

"Listen, I understand if you don't want to buy our product, but you don't have to burn it down. That's a bit unreasonable," Musk said during the all-hands.

"If you read the news, it feels like Armageddon. I can't walk past the TV without seeing a Tesla on fire," he said. "What's going on?"

Do you work for Tesla or have a tip? Reach out to Grace Kay at [email protected] or via the encrypted messaging platform Signal at 248-894-6012. Use a personal email address and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely.

• There's a growing problem for older Americans: doctors who specialize in geriatric care are dwindling.
• More than 80 million Americans are expected to be older than 65 by 2050, according to the US Census Bureau.
• However, geriatricians are in short supply, which could complicate access to care.

Jerry Gurwitz, a 68-year-old geriatrician based in Massachusetts, is at a tricky point in his career.

He's spent decades taking care of older Americans, but now, as Gurwitz approaches the age of some of his own patients, he sees a brewing problem with his profession: there aren't many people willing to take his job, and he has serious doubts over whether there will be enough doctors to properly take care of people as they get older, he told Business Insider.

Gurwitz, who graduated medical school in 1983, said he saw this problem brewing decades ago as he was completing his medical education. Part of the reason he chose to specialize in geriatric medicine was because practically comparatively few people were interested in the field, he said, a trend that hasn't improved more than forty years later.

"These people are going to be retiring. There's not substantial interest on the part of trainees to go into the field," he said of the supply of geriatricians today. "I can't see how the healthcare system isn't going to be overwhelmed over the next decade. It'll be too much, and too many people to take care of."

Medical professionals say the problem has been in the making for years, with the supply of doctors trained specifically to treat older adults nowhere near keeping pace with a quickly aging US population.

There's no clear path to addressing the shortage, Gurwitz said. He and other medical professionals told BI the influx of older patients could lead to a quality-of-care crisis.

The problem is visible in the numbers.

According to an estimate from the American Geriatrics Society, the US will need some 30,000 geriatricians by the end of the decade. Yet, the total number of board-certified geriatricians declined to around 7,400 in 2022, according to the American Board of Medical Specialities, down from around 10,000 at the start of the century —and the US population is quickly getting older.

According to the latest projections, the number of Americans aged 65 and older is expected to soar to 82 million by 2050, up 47% from 2022 levels.

Timothy Farrell, a geriatrician and a professor of medicine at the University of Utah, says the signs of strain on the profession have been increasing for years, but have become more severe recently.

Across the board, wait times have gotten longer, with the average wait for a physician appointment rising to 26 days, according to one 2022 survey, up 8% in five years.

"We could probably double our space, and we would very quickly fill," Farrell said, adding that he believed stress in the geriatric unit could be higher than in other areas of the hospital.

R. Sean Morrison, a geriatrician at Mount Sinai, says he knows others in the industry who say they have waiting lists that stretch for six months.

The strain of caring for older adults is particularly evident in nursing homes. A survey of over 400 nursing homes conducted by the American Health Care Association found that 72% had fewer employees in 2024 than they did prior to the pandemic.

The survey also showed that 57% of nursing homes said they had a waiting list, 46% said they began to limit their intake of residents, and 7% said they were turning away patients on a daily basis.

"We don't have right now, nor will we unfortunately ever have enough people who are trained," Morrison said. "That's evidenced by the amount of time it takes for an appointment within our geriatric practices. It's evidenced by the number of older adults that need to be taken into the hospital that the inpatient services don't have the capacity to see. And it's just the tip of the iceberg."

A dwindling medical profession

Gurwitz says he had always wanted to be a geriatrician, but the sentiment is rare among medical professionals. Data from the National Resident Matching Program showed that only 174 out of 419 available positions in geriatric specialty programs were filled in 2023, making it one of the most unfilled programs the organization tracks.

Convincing people to specialize in the field isn't easy.

For one, the profession doesn't pay as much as some specializations. According to data from Salary.com, the median salary for a geriatric physician in New York hovered around $264,163. That's less than half the median salary of a cardiologist in New York, which stood at $573,498 a year as of March 1.

There is also a perception that geriatrics medicine is a less distinguishing field than other areas, Gurwitz said.

"I think there are certain fields of medicine that are more prestigious in which they are more respected than others. Geriatrics, for one reason or another, is not among those," he added.

Farrell said he thinks that the complexity of treating older patients could be another factor turning professionals away from the trade. Geriatricians treat older adults who typically have overlapping health conditions, with some patients taking as many as 20 medications, he said.

"How do you prevent falls? How do you manage multiple chronic conditions for the same person?" he said. "I think there's people in primary care who have more or less comfort with the complexity taking care of complicated, older adults, and that's what geriatrician is trained to do."

• Donald Trump on Monday said tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods are coming.
• The US previously worked out a pause with its neighbors but the time has run out, he said.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 848 points and the S&P 500 was down more than 2%.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the White House will forge ahead with imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

"No room left for Mexico or Canada," Trump told reporters during an unrelated White House event. "The tariffs are all set, they go into effect tomorrow."

Trump's comments deepened a sell-off in the stock market during Monday's trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 848 points and the benchmark S&P 500 was down more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3%, with the tech-heavy index extending its decline after a sharp drop in Nvidia stock during the day.

Earlier in the day, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had left the door open that the president might change his mind. Trump already paused the tariffs for a month based on both countries pledging to do more to stem illegal immigration.

Trump on Monday reiterated his view that the tariffs are punishment for Mexico and Canada for failing to do enough to prevent fentanyl from entering the US.

Both nations have already said how they would retaliate with their own tariffs. Canada published an extensive list of targeted American products, ranging from agricultural products to alcoholic beverages. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau previously called on his citizens to prepare to forgo American-made goods.

"It might mean checking the labels at the supermarket and picking Canadian-made products," Trudeau said last month. "It might mean opting for Canadian rye over Kentucky bourbon, or foregoing Florida orange juice altogether. It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada."

The US imports a range of key goods from the two countries, including crude oil, car parts, and electronics, and trade policy experts previously told BI that new tariffs are likely to increase the prices of those goods.

Trump previously said that Americans would feel "some pain" with tariffs, but the price would be worth it in the end. Still, some companies have started to prepare for price increases caused by the tariffs. Real estate consultants previously told BI that Trump's 25% steel tariff will likely make rent and condo prices surge.

It's unclear how long these tariffs will last. Trump's initial executive order from February said that they would remain in effect until the affected countries cracked down on their drug and border policy.

• Real estate is attracting more young people to the profession.
• The share of realtors under the age of 30 quadrupled in 2024, NAR data shows.
• The trend has been helped by record-high home prices and the allure of being one's own boss.

Young, fresh-faced 20-somethings are taking the housing market by storm — not by buying homes, but by selling them.

After dipping in 2023, the share of realtors under the age of 30 quadrupled in 2024, rising from 1% to 4% last year, according to registration data from the National Association of Realtors.

Meanwhile, the median age of the average real estate agent dropped from 60 to 55 last year, the lowest since 2021.

It's a lucrative time to get into the business. While new rules have affected how realtors' commissions work, real estate agents and brokers still made a collective $48 billion in revenue in the third quarter of last year, about double what they made 10 years ago.

Paydays are being boosted by soaring home prices. The median sale price of a home was about $419,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 — up 27% since the start of 2020.

Business Insider spoke to three realtors who dove into the property business early, with some obtaining their license as soon as they turned 18, or pausing college studies to do so.

Many described themselves as especially entrepreneurial and seeking an alternative to a typical desk job — and said they found the work rewarding, both on a financial and a personal level.

Marios Milonas, a real-estate agent based in New York, started in the business when he was 19 and looking for direction in his career. He wanted nothing to do with a regular 9-to-5, and, in an effort to steer clear of student loans, was taking classes at his local community college.

"I just felt like I wanted to be able to experience financial freedom," he said, adding that he shied away from the idea of being forced into a job just to pay of student debt.

His girlfriend's father, who had worked in real estate for more than 20 years, recommended he try it out. After a few weeks of coursework, he got his license and soon after dropped out of community college.

The market was tough, at first. Milanos didn't sell a single home for his first year in the business, he said, pointing to the pandemic.

His "baby face" also held him back, he said, recalling offhand comments from other professionals in the business.

"One person came in and said, 'Oh, I thought you were 13 years old," Milanos said.

The comments began to subside as he began to grow more confident and worked on appearing more knowledgeable in front of his clients. Once the housing market began to heat back up, he felt things finally coming together.

"When that housing market opened up, it was crazy," he said, adding that he began making a six-figure salary when he was 21 years old. Milonas made over $300,000 in commission in 2024, according to financial statements viewed by BI.

Chloe De Verrier, a 26-year-old realtor based in Los Angeles, also began working on getting her real estate license when she was 19. At the time, she was attending UCLA and felt unsure about her career path. She did, though, know that she wanted to run her own business, and have full control over her schedule. Real estate seemed like the right fit.

"I was kind of having that, I guess, quarter-life crisis of, 'I don't know what I want to do,'" she said. "I kind of just decided to take a leap of faith."

She decided to temporarily drop out of college and pursue real estate full-time. Her first official day in business was her 21st birthday.

It also took De Verrier eight months to sell her first home, which she attributes to the pandemic and the fact that she was just starting out in the industry. In the meantime, she lived off her savings and moonlighted as a restaurant hostess for extra cash.

"It was just a complete shit show," she said. "I would do real estate all day during the day, go to my night shift. And it would be funny because clients would call me when I was on shift, and so I would make some excuse to go to the bathroom or step into the alleyway to negotiate deals."

At times, she also doubted herself because of her age.

"Who's going to trust a 20-something-year-old to buy or sell their biggest asset?" De Verrier said.

But for the most part, people don't seem to care about how young she was. De Verrier says clients typically trust her because she's knowledgeable and does her best to come across as professional.

"To this day, people are like, you look 23, but you act [older]," she said. "Looking back, I don't think it was as big of a deal as I made it out to be in my head."

De Verrier made over $100,000 last year, according to documents viewed by BI.

Joseph Khateri, a 21-year-old real-estate agent in Virginia, said he got his real estate license when he was 18, but he was dabbling in real estate long before that. Khateri helped his immigrant parents read documents and sell their home twice when he was younger.

The last time Khateri helped his parents move, the realtor who sold them their house in Virginia told him to think about getting into the real estate business. Afer obtaining his license, he plunged into the real estate business full-time, working as many as 80 hours a week his first few years.

Khateri described his approach to real-estate as a kind of game, adding that he worked doggedly to bring up his hourly rate, or what his salary would be if he were paid by the hour.

It was tough going, though. It took Khateri around six months to sell his first home. His commission, when subtracting fees from his brokerage and other work-related expenses, came out to a rate of around $2 an hour.

"I was just losing money every month," he said. "My parents were like, 'Joseph, what are you doing?'"

He, too, said he had trouble doing deals because of his age. "Ageism is a very big thing with real estate," he said.

Since then, things have picked up. Last year, Khateri made around $70,000 from his real estate business alone, which includes his income from commission, referrals to clients, and consulting, statements viewed by BI show.

The Gen Z realtors who spoke to BI said they all want to stick with real estate, even if its just as a side hustle.

Milonas, who grew up in a working-class family in Queens, said he planned on scaling his business and building generational wealth through his real estate ventures.

Khateri picked up a full-time job as a software engineer last year and said he would continue to work in real estate on the side. Money is part of the reason why, he admits, as he's a close follower of the Financial Independence, Retire Early movement. He said expects to make $200,000 in income this year. But for the most part, he just finds real estate fun.

"I'm a huge money guy, numbers guy, heavily into finance. I simply just like helping people with their investments. It's honestly fun for me," he said.

De Verrier said she would also stay in the industry, with plans to potentially build her own team of agents one day.

"I don't know what else I would do, honestly," she said.

• Bosses are increasingly watching what their employees are doing during the workday.
• Demand for employee surveillance software rose 54% from March 2020 to June 2023, a study found.
• Pressure is on for bosses to cut costs and root out unproductive workers, sources say.

If you're reading this during your workday, there are pretty good odds that your boss knows.

Employers have monitored workers for a long time, but companies now have more sophisticated ways to watch what employees do while on the clock.

Bosses are increasingly deploying tools that can track screen time, log keystrokes, and take videos and screenshots to keep tabs throughout the day.

These gadgets, which exploded in use when remote work took off during the pandemic, are part of a broader workplace trend aimed at cutting costs and reducing head count, something execs think can be done more effectively by rooting out less productive workers, sources told Business Insider.

Between March 2020 and June 2023, demand for employee surveillance software grew 54%, according to research from Top10VPN, a virtual private network comparison site.

Meanwhile, 73% of employers said they used recordings of calls, emails, or other messages as a factor in performance reviews, while 37% said they used a recording to fire an employee, a separate survey from ExpressVPN study found.

Five employee monitoring software providers told Business Insider they had seen significant growth in the last year, with four of them reporting that they had scaled their clientele by more than 25% in 2024.

Insightful, which makes monitoring software that allows employers to keep tabs on worker productivity through features like screenshotting, says it saw a 45% increase in customers last year. The firm is already on track to see its client base jump by 70% this year, Alexandra Alexin, Insightful's head of demand generation, said.

Alexin attributed the increased interest to employers wanting to keep workers accountable, adding that some companies said they were looking to enforce certain policies.

"It's been fantastic from a business perspective," Alexin told BI, noting that 2024 marked the company's best year on record. "I think that the real focus they have is, if those policies are being enforced, are they seeing more productivity and more efficiency from their workforce or not?"

Time Doctor, another performance-tracking software firm that assigns productivity ratings and alerts employers of worker inactivity, said client interest increased by around 50% in 2024. Based on numbers over the last several quarters, the firm expects to see a similar increase in 2025.

Liam Martin, the co-founder of Time Doctor, told BI he attributes the uptick in interest in employee monitoring tools to the rise of remote work, though cost-cutting has also come up in conversations with customers.

"Every single employer that I've spoken to, and I've asked them, 'is your head count going to go down due to AI?' Pretty much everyone has said yes," Martin said, adding that he believed workers who were able to become more productive by using AI were not going to be let go.

Controlio, an employee monitoring tool that can rank employees on a scale from "Very Productive" to "Very Distracted" through features like keylogging, video recording, and surveying file activity, says it's seen a 30% increase in clients using its platform.

Moath Galeb, an account manager at Controlio, said employers using Controlio are frequently shocked by how unproductive some employees are. He added that some employers have used the technology to determine which employees to let go.

"A lot of our customers use it solely to have the ability to make decisions," he said.

Layoff announcements by companies rose 28% in January, according to a report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

Meanwhile, a third of business leaders said that reducing costs was their top priority in 2025, according to a survey conducted by Boston Consulting Group. Approximately 86% of executives said they planned on investing in AI or advanced analytics in 2025, BCG found.

While employers may be flocking to such tools, workers are less enthused about the prospect of being monitored at work.

About 56% of workers who are monitored at work said they felt tense or stressed out, according to the American Psychological Association.

Time Doctor's Martin says fewer employees push back against the technology once they understand how it works, adding that he believes the heightened transparency is necessary for remote work to succeed.

• The alcohol industry faces a handful of risks that could spark a prolonged downturn, BofA says.
• Analysts at the bank expect alcohol consumption to drop for a fourth year in a row in 2025.
• Things like weight loss drugs and alcohol alternatives are factors that could drive the decline.

America's alcohol industry could be heading for a long-running decline, according to Bank of America.

Analysts at the bank see a growing risk that the alcoholic beverages sector could sink into a secular decline thanks to a handful of trends that are causing Americans to lay off the booze.

The bank estimates that alcohol consumption per capita is on track to fall 1% year-over-year in 2025. That would mark the fourth-straight year of declines for alcohol consumption in the US, analysts said in a note on Friday.

"We are assuming per capital consumption reverts to historical levels. There is, however, risk that per capita consumption continues to recede," the bank wrote, pointing to four headwinds that could weigh on the industry for some time.

Younger people, for one, appear to be turning away from alcohol. In the 10 years leading up to 2023, the number of binge drinkers aged 21-34 declined by around 3 million, Bank of America said, citing data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health.

Younger Americans also appear to be more conscious of the health consequences of drinking too much. 65% of 18- to 34 year-olds said they believed drinking in moderation was bad for health last year. That's more than double the share of 18- to 34-year-olds who believed drinking in moderation was bad for health eight years ago, according to a 2024 Gallup poll.

90% of those in the age group said they believed the best health advice for the average drinker would be to reduce the amount of alcohol or stop drinking altogether, the poll found.

"Suggesting younger people are drinking less vs. history while older people are drinking more. In our view, this dynamic will be a critical component to overall consumption trends over the next 5 years, especially if younger consumers continue to be more moderate consumers vs. previous generations," BofA analysts said.

Second, alcohol consumption could be challenged by the rising interest in preventing obesity, as well as weight loss drugs growing more popular. One study published this week found that people taking Ozempic were able to "significantly" reduce the amount they drink in a day.

Third, consumers also appear to be choosier when spending on food and beverages. Retail and food sales dropped 0.9% in January, according to preliminary estimates from the Census Bureau.

Meanwhile, 83% of US consumers said they weren't planning to splurge on alcoholic beverages over the next three months, according to a survey conducted by McKinsey & Company in the fourth quarter.

Lastly, psychoactive alternatives to alcohol are growing. 8 million Americans were estimated to use psilocybin, the substance found in psychedelic mushrooms, in 2023, according to a study from the research organization RAND.

Alcoholic beverage companies are already off to a rocky start to 2025, especially after the US surgeon general warned of cancer risks from drinking and Americans kicked off the year with Dry January.

Constellation Brands, one of the largest liquor companies in the US, has seen its stock price drop 27% year-to-date, and Brown-Forman Corporation, one of the world's top wine and spirit companies, has seen its stock price drop 18% this year. Diageo stock has dropped almost 14% and is hovering around five-year lows.

• There are signals coming from employers that hint that layoffs could accelerate this year.
• Layoff announcements rose 28% in January from the prior month, according to Challenger data.
• Business filings of mass layoff plans have also been elevated in recent months.

The resilient US job market could weaken this year, with employers showing early signs that they're readying more job cuts in 2025.

Job cut announcements continued to rise in January, even as the labor market remained on solid footing overall. Layoff announcements swelled to 49,795 over the month of January, according to data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas. That marks a 28% increase from the prior month, though it was the quietest January for layoff announcements since 2022, the career outplacement firm said in a report.

That number looks poised to increase in the coming months, given recent mass layoff announcements, the firm added. Since the start of February, ADM has said it was planning to cut up to 700 workers in its latest cost-cutting measures, while Salesforce and Workday also made plans to cut 1,000 and 1,750 workers, respectively.

"January was relatively quiet in terms of job cut announcements. However, we've already seen major announcements in the early days of February, so it seems this quiet is unlikely to last," Andrew Challenger, the senior vice president of Challenger, wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, WARN filings — regulatory filings businesses with more than 100 workers must submit if they're planning to lay off more than 50 people at a worksite — have also increased in recent months. Companies filed 253 layoff notices in December, with plans to cut 21,873 jobs, according to public records accessed by WARNTracker.com. That's up from the prior month, when firms filed 217 notices, with plans to cut 20,105 workers.

"The number of positions covered by a WARN filing jumped in November and remained relatively high in December. As a result, we still think the trend in claims will rise to about 250K by the end of Q1, reflecting a fading drag from residual seasonability and deterioration in the underlying trend," Samuel Tombs, a chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote.

Hiring was robust in December. The economy added 256,000 jobs that month, well above the expected 164,000. The jobless rate, meanwhile, remained near a record low, slipping to 4.1%.

Economic forecasters, though, have been observing weaker labor market conditions in the past year, with the unemployment rate climbing 30 basis points throughout 2024.

Friday's jobs report is expected to show that hiring decelerated but continued to grow in January. Economists expect US employers to have added 170,000 jobs, according to FactSet.

• Russia's economic outlook won't brighten if the war in Ukraine ends, according to CEPA.
• The research center thinks Russia has grown too reliant on military spending to keep its economy going without it.
• A huge 2025 defense budget shows how dependent Moscow become on the war.

Pressure has steadily been building on Russia's economy in the three years since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, but things could continue to get worse for Moscow even after the war stops, a think said this week.

According to the Center of European Policy Action, a public policy research group based in Washington, DC, the economic outlook in Russia could darken further once the Ukraine war comes to an end. That's partly because Russia has become "addicted" to military spending to prop up its economy, and partly because Moscow is weighed down by a range of economic issues that could take a while to resolve even after the fighting is over, the center said in a new report.

"Even without any ongoing fighting military spending would need to remain high," Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at CEPA, said.

According to Russia's latest federal budget, the country will spend a record 13.5 trillion rubles on its military in 2025, up from around 10.8 trillion rubles last year. Economists have said that stimulus is largely responsible for Russia's recent economic growth, with GDP rising around 4% last year.

But other indicators of Russia's long-term prospects look weaker.

Russia's labor market is slammed with a severe shortage of workers, thanks partly to the exodus of Russians who fled the country when Russia first began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The nation was short around five million workers in 2023, according to estimates from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics.

"The labor market dislocation will remain unless Russia faces a severe contraction. A combination of the demographic trough, brain drain, and high demand from the defense industry and the army will pressure the market, forcing the Kremlin to choose between importing foreign workers at the risk of social discontent and a constant labor shortage," Kolyandr said.

The flight of Russia's most educated workers has also caused Russia to fall behind in the tech space, another issue that economists have said could impact Moscow's long-term growth.

Patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, while patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the Russian Patent Office.

"Russia remains technologically backward and dependent on high-tech imports," Kolyandr added. "The 2025 budget, which sacrifices spending on science, education, and health in favor of defense, illustrates the problem."

Russia is also under continued pressure from Western sanctions, which have restricted the nation's access to financing and crimped revenues from some of its most important exports, like oil and gas.

Russia's total energy revenues plunged by nearly a quarter in 2023. The Kremlin, meanwhile, expects oil and gas revenue to keep shrinking until 2027, according to a draft budget viewed by Bloomberg.

"It would not be accurate to say that the sanctions did not work. While they have failed to prevent Russia's aggression and to change Russia's political course since 2022, they have helped to distort the country's growth, possibly planting the seed for another 1980s Soviet-style crisis," Kolyandr added.

• The economy will probably head into a recession in a few years, Kenneth Rogoff says.
• The Harvard economist thinks a slowdown is coming in the second half of Trump's term.
• The downturn will be influenced by factors like a slowing business cycle and tariffs, he suggested.

President Donald Trump's plan to engineer America's next economic boom will probably come up short in the coming years, according to Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff.

The Harvard professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist said he believed the US economy would likely slow and enter a downturn in the second half of Trump's term as president. That outcome will be influenced by a number of policies Trump suggested he would implement, Rogoff said, speaking to Yahoo! Finance on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum on Tuesday.

"I think the most likely scenario, with what I think are the most likely policies being passed, are strong, and then a slowdown into recession the second half of his term," Rogoff said. "It's just tough within the cycle not to do that."

Rogoff highlighted some of Trump's policies that could weigh on the economy. The president has promised to loosen regulation in the financial sector, a move that could potentially lead to "trouble down the road," Rogoff said.

"And also, when you goose up the economy with these policies, most of which are not structural, they're really demand policies, you're going to get that effect," he added of the potential for an economic slowdown.

Rogoff pointed to Trump's tariff plan, with the president promising to levy tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico as soon as February 1.

Economists have said the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, an idea Trump has pushed back on. Trump levied tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation increase. However, his proposals for tariff policy in his second term are more expansive, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts.

Rogoff said the inflationary impact of the tariffs could be minor, though he believed the tariffs themselves would make markets nervous and could harm growth.

"The inflationary impact is not a big deal, quantitatively," Rogoff said. "More worrisome is that it's chaotic, it hurts these animal spirits that he's benefiting from. It actually leads to slower growth."

Trump has promised to "reignite explosive economic growth" over his four years in office, adding in his inauguration speech that tariffs could lead to "massive amounts of money" pouring into the US.

Wall Street is bullish that Trump's push to loosen regulation for businesses could boost growth. But any pro-growth policies from Trump will likely still be outweighed by "counterproductive" policies, Rogoff said, speaking in a separate interview with Bloomberg at the event.

Interest rates are also much higher than they were when Trump first took office in 2017, which is a wrinkle in any plans to juice the economy beyond already fairly robust levels of growth.

"Every campaign promise practically is something counterproductive — I mean, you can go to the tariffs, social security being not taxed, and on and on and on," Rogoff said. "He has a lot of constraints that he didn't face the first time. So I don't think you can expect quite the boom we got the last time," he later added.

Other forecasters have also issued downbeat outlooks for what could happen during Trump's presidency. Steve Hanke, another top economist, said the US could slip into a recession as soon as Trump's first year in office.

• America's credit card debt has surged, and distress could peak this year.
• Banks could write off the largest share of credit card loans since 2011, finance experts predict.
• Debt distress will be driven by weaker consumer finances, thanks to elevated inflation and interest rates.

Benton McClintock, 27, had been running away from his credit card bill for nearly a decade before deciding to pay it off. When McClintock was in college, he began paying for big trips to Milan, Paris, and other getaways with his credit card, and—until his balance had ballooned to $40,000—thought nothing of it.

When his American Express Platinum card, which doesn't have a traditional credit limit, began running into a hard borrowing cap, he realized he was in trouble. McClintock spent the last year paying off the debt aggressively, a Sisyphean task that involved him putting 90% of his income toward his credit card bill and living on thin margins.

"Every day," he said when asked if he was stressed about his finances. "You just become numb to it, I think."

Today, McClintock is debt-free, but many others are still struggling. Americans have been digging themselves deeper into a hole of credit card debt over the last several years, and some financial experts think debt pain will peak this year, with more banks writing off loans and consumers making even deeper sacrifices to pay their credit card bills, personal finance pros told BI.

They added that consumer finances will weaken, leaving many ill-equipped to deal with the fallout from pandemic spending binges. Sticky inflation and elevated borrowing rates will also contribute to distress.

Measures of debt distress are already on the rise. More credit card balances are shifting into late payment status, with the delinquency rate on credit card loans climbing 3.23% in the third quarter, the highest level since 2011, according to Federal Reserve data.

Meanwhile, the charge-off rate on credit card loans — another measure of debt distress that refers to the percentage of card balances banks have written off their balance sheet — rose to 4.69% in the third quarter, the highest level in 13 years.

The charge-off rate on credit card loans is expected to peak around 5% by the middle of this year, according to a projection from Fitch Ratings. That would represent the largest percentage of distressed credit card loans banks have written off since the years following the Great Financial Crisis, Fed data shows.

The National Foundation for Credit Card Counseling is also expecting consumer credit card distress to worsen in the near term. The foundation estimated its average client reached "Stage 6" on its Debt Burden Scale over the fourth quarter, a severe form of debt distress where consumers are cutting back on essentials, like food, to service their credit card payments.

The trend of higher debt distress looks poised to continue through 2025, the firm said in its latest Financial Stress Forecast.

Bruce McClary, senior vice president of membership and communications at the NFCC, said that he was seeing more people make sacrifices to service their credit card loans, such as by borrowing against their home or their 401(k).

In particular, he's expecting a surge of debt-distressed consumers to come in for help in the next three months, as Americans face bills coming due from the holidays.

"We're expecting these levels of stress to reach a level significantly higher than anything we've seen over the past four years," he said. "l think it would be also true to say that we're expecting it to go beyond what we saw pre-pandemic."

Credit card nation

Americans are leaning on credit cards to get by more than ever. Household credit card balances surged to a record $1.17 trillion as of the third quarter of 2024, up $360 billion from the third quarter of 2020, New York Fed data shows.

That increase was driven by a perfect storm of factors, McClary said, pointing to how credit card companies loosened lending standards during the pandemic, as well as the accumulated effects of higher inflation. The higher cost of living, combined with the post-pandemic shopping boom, made consumers more likely to carry a balance from month to month.

But those consumers are looking far worse than they did several years ago. Households likely depleted their excess savings from the pandemic by the first quarter of 2024, according to an analysis from the San Francisco Fed.

Meanwhile, credit card companies began rolling up their emergency forbearance programs in 2022, which were implemented to provide debt forgiveness during the pandemic.

Nearly half of all credit card users said they carried a balance month-to-month, according to a 2024 Bankrate survey, up from 39% of users who carried a balance in 2021.

Of those who held credit card debt, 29% of users said they believed it would take them more than 5 years to pay off their loans, while 6% said they believed they would never be able to pay their dues.

Heather Hunt, the director of Fitch Ratings, says she largely expects debt distress to rise as consumer finances continue to weaken in 2025, especially if the job market deteriorates.

"The short story is that if unemployment is rising, then your charge-offs are going to rise. And that just signals consumers are under more and more distress," she said.

Interest rates on credit card plans charged by commercial banks soared past 21% in 2024, the highest in at least three decades, according to Fed data dating back to 1994.

Meanwhile, 28% of credit card debt holders said day-to-day expenses, like groceries, were the largest reason they carried their balances month to month, according to Bankrate's survey.

McClary says he advises people struggling with credit card debt to speak to a nonprofit credit counselor as soon as possible.

"If you're falling behind on your payments, the delinquency interest rates, the penalty interest rates combined with the fees, could be the death blow," McClary said. "And that's just unsustainable for people who are already financially struggling and are living paycheck to paycheck."

Are you struggling with credit card loans, a mortgage, or other forms of personal debt? Email this reporter to share your story: [email protected].

• Scott Bessent's confirmation hearing this week held a number of clues as to what markets can expect from Trump 2.0.
• The long-time investor and hedge fund exec is Trump's pick to lead the US Treasury.
• Bessent said Trump would "unleash a new economic golden age" during his testimony.

Scott Bessent's nomination hearing gave markets a handful of hints as to what the next four years could look like.

The investor and hedge fund executive sat this week for his confirmation hearing as Donald Trump's pick to lead the US Treasury Department. Economists at Deutsche Bank noted that his remarks held a few important clues for investors.

In his testimony, Bessent said he believed Trump's presidency would help "unleash a new economic golden age," which could include more jobs and increased wealth for Americans. He also suggested the US was "barreling towards an economic crisis" at the end of the year.

If confirmed, Bessent will be in charge of Trump's plan to create the "Greatest Economic Boom," and will oversee the President-elect's plans to cut taxes, deploy tariffs, and curtail the national debt.

Here's what Deutsche Bank economists think were the top takeaways of Bessent's testimony.

1. Nothing has been taken off the table in Trump's tariff plan

Bessent didn't have firm guidance on what Trump's tariff plan could look like. In his testimony, the Treasury Secretary nominee said the tariffs would aim to even out unfair trade practices by other countries, raise federal revenue, and potentially give the US more bargaining power in negotiations. He didn't specify if the tariffs would be slowly implemented over time.

Bessent also pushed back against the idea that Trump's tariff plan was inflationary. Trump levied tariffs during his first term as president without a significant inflation increase, but economists say that his plan this time around is more expansive, explaining the difference in inflation outlooks for the coming years.

"Besesnt's comments on tariffs were notable in that they left everything on the table," the Deutsche Bank economists said.

2. Trump's 2017 tax cuts could be extended

Bessent doubled-down on his support for extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts. If the US doesn't extend the tax cuts, Americans could face $4 trillion tax hike when the 2017 package expires this year, he said.

"We must make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and implement new pro-growth policies to reduce the tax burden on American manufacturers, service workers, and seniors. I have already spoken with several members of this Committee, as well as leaders in the House about the best approach to achieving these important goals together," he added.

3. Bessent could crack down on government spending

Bessent emphasized his resolve to get the national debt and the widening deficit under control. He's been a vocal proponent of reducing the federal debt balance in the past, attributing rising debt levels to the government's "significant spending problem" in his testimony.

The total federal debt balance clocked in at $36.17 trillion as of Friday, according to US Treasury data.

"On the debt limit, Bessent provided reassurance that the US would not default on its debt if he were to be confirmed as Treasury Secretary," Deutsche Bank wrote.

Bessent also appeared "hesitant" to support removing the national debt limit, the Deutsche Bank economists noted, referring to an idea that Trump floated late last year. But, when questioned, Bessent said he would work with Trump to remove the debt limit, if Trump wished to do so

4. Trump will support the Fed's independence

Bessent pushed back against the notion that Trump would try to exert power over the Federal Reserve. Media reports that have suggested Trump would infringe on the independence of the Fed are "highly inaccurate," he added.

Bessent also did not speak about the potential for a "shadow Fed Chair," something he spoke about last year.

"Trump would make his views on monetary policy known, as Bessent noted Senators often do, but he does not support undermining Fed independence," the economists said.

5. Sanctions could get stronger

Bessent voiced support for intensifying sanctions on Russia and Iran. Sanctions on Russia, in particular, have not been "fulsome," Bessent said, suggesting he would tolerate higher oil prices in favor of increasing restrictions on Russia.

"If any officials in the Russian Federation are watching this confirmation hearing, they should know that if I'm confirmed and if President Trump requests it as part of his strategy to end the Ukraine war, I will be 100% on board from taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table," Bessent said during the hearing.

"This statement could indicate that such sanctions may be near-term priorities for the Trump administration," Deutsche added.

• The growing population of older Americans is facing unaffordable long-term care.
• These costs will also burden many younger people caring for older relatives and kin.
• Government incentives and public insurance could help address care affordability, experts say.

As the population of older Americans balloons, the financial costs associated with aging are, too.

Many millennials and Gen Xers are facing a stark reality: their parents and grandparents don't have the means to pay for long-term care — and they'll need to help foot the bill, especially since government aid often doesn't cover large parts of this care.

Many younger people end up leaving their jobs or working less in order to care for their aging family members — and that sacrifice can hurt them financially both today and in the future, including by shrinking their income and Social Security benefits, experts say.

"The bigger issue is you can create almost a cycle of poverty," Marc Cohen, a professor of gerontology at the University of Massachusetts Boston, told Business Insider. "It's not something that just sticks with one generation. The costs are borne communally."

Unprepared for a predictable crisis

Much like other forms of care — from emergency rooms to daycares — the labor and facilities needed for long-term care don't come cheap. A shortage of long-term care workers, coupled with inflation, has sent prices up in recent years. As the oldest members of the baby boomer generation near 80, the demand for these services is expected to rise sharply — putting upward pressure on costs.

Privately-provided long-term care — including assisted living communities and home healthcare — is largely out of reach for the broad middle class. Fewer than 15% of people 75 and over living alone in major US cities could afford to pay for assisted living or daily home health aide visits without dipping into their assets, per a 2023 report from Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

"It's the affordability issue, particularly in the middle market, that concerns us the most," Lisa McCracken, head of research and analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care told Business Insider.

Retirees and their families may not be able to rely on the government to help. Medicare, the government's health insurance program for older people, doesn't cover most long-term care, including assisted living, home healthcare, and nursing homes. Medicaid largely doesn't cover assisted living and home healthcare, and there are often long waitlists for the nursing home care it does cover. Some assisted living residents have been evicted after they spent down their savings and were forced to rely on Medicaid.

"A lot of people thought, 'Oh, well, doesn't Medicare pay for this?' and it does not," Cohen said. "And so people find out late in life that they don't have any protection against these costs."

That's what happened to Erika Gilles and her family. After Gilles' 78-year-old mother, Karen Proctor, was hospitalized for her chronic kidney disease last year, she quickly realized her mother's Medicare coverage wouldn't be enough to cover her long-term care. Overnight, her mother went from living independently in the house she's long owned to requiring dialysis treatment and constant care. But Gilles couldn't purchase private long-term care insurance because of her mother's pre-existing conditions.

Gilles, 57, found a group assisted living facility for her mother, who applied for a state subsidy to help cover the cost. If the subsidy doesn't come through, Gilles is worried they'll have to sell her mother's house in Sun City, Arizona.

"It's totally turned my life upside down. It's absorbed all of my time," Gilles said. "I don't think I'm ever going to retire."

It's not just a boomer problem

Gen X, many of whom are sandwiched between caring for their aging parents and dependent children, has fallen behind in their financial savings. A study conducted by Nationwide showed that 56% of Gen Xers were financially supporting either their parents or their kids. About a fifth of Gen Xers taking care of a parent said they had a significant amount of debt, and a similar portion said they were unable to save for retirement, the study found.

The number of US adults who care for a spouse, older parent or relative, or child with special needs has grown from 43.5 million in 2015 to 53 million in 2021, per a report from the insurance provider Guardian.

A separate survey of 35- to 60-year-olds conducted by Carewell found that 75% of those taking care of both a parent and a child said they struggled to save for retirement, while 63% said they lived paycheck to paycheck. Meanwhile, adult caregivers provided around $600 billion worth of unpaid labor last year, noted a separate report from the AARP.

Brandon Goldstein, a financial planner at Prudential, said he frequently works with clients struggling to care for their parents as they get older. In some cases, his clients are experiencing financial stress as a result of caretaking and have been forced to cut back on saving.

Some of them may need to bank on their own children taking care of them in the future, he suggested, given how much they've sacrificed in their own retirement savings.

"Having to reduce what you put towards retirement is going to put you in a situation where you might not have assets now, and you could — I don't want to call it a burden — but you might become this responsibility if you don't have assets to cover a facility," he told BI, adding that some may need to consider working for longer than they originally expected.

Ultimately, through ballooning Medicaid costs, taxpayers may be on the hook for the growing long-term care crisis. An increasing number of older people don't have kids or spouses to take care of them as they age, and those that end up needing long-term care may have to rely on Medicaid. About a fifth of baby boomer women don't have any children, and those who do have kids have fewer, on average, than previous generations.

A government-aided solution for long-term care?

Cohen argues that the private long-term insurance market is suffering from "a clear market failure" and policymakers need to step in to create a public option for middle-income people and their families.

McCracken said that in order to scale some of the most effective models of assisted living and other long-term care, private providers will need more government incentives and partnerships.

Cohen argued that public long-term care insurance would work well if most people paid into it because a relatively small number of older people require the most expensive care, like 24/7 nursing.

That option could resemble an earned benefit, like Social Security and Medicare, funded by a mandatory tax that people pay throughout their lives and collect when they retire. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a New York Democrat, has proposed legislation that would create a public insurance program for catastrophic long-term care funded by a payroll tax.

Some states have begun to address the issue. Washington State recently passed a 0.6% payroll tax to fund a new universal long-term care insurance program called WA Cares, which provides $36,500 in care per person, and will increase with inflation in future years.

Gilles said she wants to see the government or care providers figure out a way to lower costs.

"They've got to provide more support to families going through this," she said. "They've got to either make it more affordable, or they need to provide more resources, or not make it so expensive so that it's attainable for anybody at any income level."

Are you or someone you care for struggling with long-term care costs? Email this reporter to share your story: [email protected].

This story was originally published in January 2025.

• The US is cracking down on Russia's oil industry, with broader sanctions introduced on Friday.
• The US and UK are blocking two Russian energy giants and other entities in the nation's oil trade.
• Russia's energy revenue is expected to account for more than a quarter of the nation's budget in 2025.

The US is tightening the screws on one of the key pillars of Russia's wartime economy: its energy business.

The US said it would join the United Kingdom in imposing wider-sweeping sanctions against Russia's oil industry on Friday, which include blocking Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, two of Russia's largest oil producers.

Sanctions will also be imposed on the producers' subsidiaries, as well as 183 tankers associated with Russia's oil trade, according to a statement from the Treasury Department. Some of the sanctioned tankers were part of Russia's shadow fleet, a group of ships Russia is known to rely on to trade oil under the radar.

The new sanctions also targeted several "opaque traders" involved in Russia's oil business, as well as oilfield service providers and prominent executives at Russian energy companies, the statement added.

"The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia's key source of revenue for funding its brutal and illegal war against Ukraine," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement. "With today's actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia's oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia's oil exports," she later added.

Western nations have targeted Russia's energy trade since the early days of the Ukraine war, given that Russia's energy revenue makes up a big chunk of the nation's war budget. Oil and gas revenue is expected to account for around 27% of Russia's federal revenue in 2025, according to a draft budget viewed by Reuters in September.

Consequences from existing measures, like the ban and $60 price cap on Russian oil, have already started to hit Moscow's cash flow. Russia's total energy revenue plummeted by nearly a quarter in 2023, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.

The nation's oil and gas revenue is also expected to decline through 2027, the draft budget showed.

Economists share a grim outlook for Russia's economy, with some experts expecting the nation to soon undergo a stagnation that could mirror the decline of the Soviet Union. The nation is now likely feeling the full impact of international sanctions, which could produce enough strain to bring an end to the war this year, according to one Washington, D.C.-based think-tank.

• Corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level in over a decade in 2024, according to S&P Global.
• There were 694 bankruptcy filings in 2024, S&P said.
• Delinquency rates on business and personal loans also climbed last year, Fed data shows.

Corporate bankruptcies rose to a 14-year peak in 2024, jumping to the highest level seen since the years following the Great Financial Crisis, according to data from S&P Global.

A total of 694 US companies filed for bankruptcy last year, the intelligence firm said in a report on Monday. It represents the highest number of bankruptcies in the corporate world since 2010, when 828 firms filed for bankruptcy.

Filings for the year were up 9% compared to levels in 2023, and up 86% compared to levels in 2022, when just 372 firms filed for bankruptcy protection.

Consumer discretionary was the most distressed sector in 2024, with 108 companies filing for bankruptcy. That was followed by industrials and healthcare industries, where 88 and 65 firms filed for bankruptcy, respectively.

"The consumer discretionary sector has been particularly susceptible to economic headwinds, even with strong overall US retail sales activity, as consumer buying trends have shifted and budgets have tightened due to inflation," the report said.

Higher levels of debt distress also reflected the strain of high debt balances, as well as higher rates in the economy broadly, the report said.

Over 30 companies that filed for bankruptcy last year had more than $1 billion in liabilities at the time they filed, according to a list compiled by S&P Global. Companies on the list included high-profile bankruptcies like Party City, Spirit Airlines, and Red Lobster.

Meanwhile, credit-rated nonfinancial US firms held a record $8.45 trillion worth of debt in the third quarter of 2024, the firm said.

Central bankers have lowered interest rates in recent years, but borrowing costs for many consumer and business loans remain elevated.

The average yield on seasoned AAA-rated corporate bonds was 5.2% in December, about double the rate in December 2020, according to Moody's data.

Signs of debt distress have increased in recent years as the impact of higher rates continues to work through the economy.

The delinquency rate on business loans held by commercial banks rose to 1.16% in the third quarter of 2024, the highest level since the pandemic. The delinquency rate on consumer loans, meanwhile, rose to 2.73% in the third quarter, the highest level in 12 years.

• Gen X may be even less prepared for retirement than boomers, wealth advisors say.
• A large cohort of adults in their mid-50s have less than $50,000 in retirement savings.
• Many expect to work part-time or receive family help after retiring, a Prudential survey shows.

Jim Thomas, a 52-year-old who works in a lumber mill, is well aware of how far behind he's fallen in saving for retirement. His job pays "good money," he says, but he's still trying to plug the hole in his finances after a layoff, a divorce, and several legal disputes emptied his wallet in the last decade.

Those expenses have dug a hole so deep in his savings that Thomas is only now starting up his 401k from scratch. Currently, he estimates he has around $100,000 in savings, well below the goal that is traditionally recommended by financial advisors, who say you should have around eight times your annual salary saved by the time you're 60.

"I know I won't be able to retire at 65 unless I win the lottery," Thomas told Business Insider. "I expect that I will either need help from my daughter when I can no longer work, or I will need government assistance greater than Social Security."

He's not alone. Thomas is among what retirement experts are calling "silver squatters" — adults in their mid-50s who are even more woefully unprepared than some boomers, despite being about a decade away from retirement. "Squatters" refers to the possibility that many will have to rely on family for housing in later years.

As far as silver squatters go, Thomas's story is fairly common. According to surveys conducted by Prudential Financial, the median retirement savings for those in their mid-50s is just under $48,000, with 35% of 55-year-olds having less than $10,000 saved and 18% having saved nothing at all in 2023.

Two-thirds of 55-year-olds say they're afraid of outliving their savings. That's the highest level of fear among any age group of Prudential's 2024 survey, with 59% of 65-year-olds saying they worried they would outlive their savings.

"As a whole, they are not as prepared as the boomers and actually are doing less well than the millennials," Pete Welsh, managing director of retirement and wealth at Inspira Financial, told BI, though he noted that the youngest Gen Xers still had time to catch up on their savings.

The lack of preparation among the cohort could be due to late planning and the unique economic circumstances of the mid-50s crowd, in addition to less financial literacy among the generation, wealth advisors say.

René, a 50-year-old based in Austin, Texas, has anxiety over whether she and her husband will have enough to live comfortably once they retire. Their life savings — around $380,000 between the two of them — dwindled to next to nothing after a medical diagnosis put her out of work and through a string of surgeries over the course of two years, she told BI.

The couple, who have fallen behind on some of their bills, don't know if they'll be able to get extra financial assistance once they retire, besides their expected pension payments. They have no external family, and they don't want to rely on their daughter for help.

"I was like, oh God, how did we get here?" René said, describing a plea she made with their mortgage provider not to foreclose on their home. "We're just going to have to work and 401k-it, and that's just how it's going to have to be now."

A forgotten generation

Silver squatters share some common characteristics, despite the unique circumstances affecting their retirement readiness. This group of Gen Xers — the generation of Americans aged 43 to 59 — largely expects to postpone or work past their retirement. 47% of Gen Xers think they'll have to retire later than they initially expected, while 40% expect to work part-time after they retire, per Prudential's survey.

A majority also don't expect to receive any inheritance, despite their boomer predecessors holding onto trillions in wealth. Only 12% of the 55-year-old group expect to get money passed down from their family members, Prudential's survey found.

They do, however, largely expect to be reliant on family for support once they retire. Around 24% of 55-year-olds say they expect financial support from their family members, with 21% adding they also needing housing support, the report said.

That compares to just 12% of 65-year-olds who say they will need that kind of help from family.

The gap in retirement readiness could be due to the "unique" challenges of Gen Xers, according to Dylan Tyson, the head of retirement strategies at Prudential. He notes that all of the generation was in their prime working years during the 2008 financial crisis, which could have set them back financially.

Gen Xers could also be in a tenuous stage of life, where a number of surprise expenses have popped up to drain their savings. Think of those who have had to fund their child's college education or are paying for a living facility for their own parents, Inspira's Welsh said.

"You're trying to help out here, you're trying to help out there, and then at the end of the day, there's just not enough on the table to really think about what you're going to do for yourself," Welsh said, adding that some of Inspira's Gen X clients had expressed frustration over their financial responsibilities to their family. "They're just in a very tough, tough spot that, for whatever reason, I guess maybe the boomers didn't have to deal with."

Low rates of financial literacy — which is a widespread issue among every generation in the US, according to a study from the World Economic Forum — doesn't help the situation, Welsh and Tyson say. Around half of Gen Xers are saving without a general plan for retirement, Prudential found.

Most also don't appear to be accounting for major expenses into retirement, with 48% not factoring in healthcare costs and 75% not factoring in assisted living expenses.

Many Prudential clients don't even know how much they need to save, Tyson said, adding that many of the firm's Gen X clients are simply guessing how long they will live. He said he believes many of them are guessing incorrectly due to rising life expectancies in the US.

"If you don't have the cushion — again, this is the group we're talking about, the 60-year-old, undersaved — they really need to be watching every penny and thinking about that," Welsh said.

This article was originally published in August 2024.

• Putin told Russia the nation would be fine in his New Year's address.
• He refrained from giving a concrete outlook for the Ukraine war or Russia's economy.
• The nation is facing growing costs from its invasion, from rising casualties to soaring inflation.

Vladimir Putin assured Russia he was "certain that everything will be fine" in his New Year's Eve address on Tuesday, as the nation heads toward its fourth year of war in Ukraine in 2025.

In his speech, the Russian president said the nation was overcoming various challenges and would continue to move on. He also referred to 2025 as the "year of the Defender of the Motherland," and gave respect to Russia's "fighters and commanders," The New York Times reported.

Still, Putin refrained from giving a concrete outlook on the war in Ukraine, or the path of the Russian economy going forward. He also did not mention Russia's inflation struggles, one of the nation's key economic problems.

The comments come amid swirling military and economic uncertainty in Russia, which is under increasing strain as its war against Ukraine is set to turn three years old in February.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War said that Russia suffered about 427,000 casualties in 2024 while gaining about 1,600 square miles of territory. Russia's military slowed its advances last month, with forces gaining around seven square miles of land a day in December.

On the economic front, the costs of Russia's invasion continue to mount. The nation has earmarked 13.5 trillion rubles for its defense spending next year, amounting to around a third of Russia's total federal budget.

Private business activity has also been hindered by the flight of capital and younger workers who fled the nation at the start of the war. An analysis from S&P Global showed that private equity or venture capital-backed deals and investments plunged 39% from 2022 to 2023.

Inflation, meanwhile, remains well above the central bank's 4% target, while interest rates have risen to 21%.

Putin has generally brushed off concerns about the Russian economy, but acknowledged the nation's struggle with inflation in a recent address. In December, he acknowledged that Russia's inflation rate was "alarming" and the economy was "overheating."

At the end of 2023, Putin apologized for the soaring price of eggs, adding the rapid price increase was a "failure of the government's work."

Economists expect 2025 to be another difficult year for the country, and some predict that its economy could be headed for a period of stagnation similar to the Soviet Union in the early 1980s.

TsMAKP, a think-tank tied to the Russian government, said the nation was at risk at stagflation, a dire economic scenario that typically involves spiraling inflation, sluggish growth, and rising unemployment.