• Russia's economy will be under significant strain next year, economists told Business Insider.
• High inflation, slowing economic growth, energy prices, and sanctions could hurt its war machine.
• One expert told BI that stagnation was similar to the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1980s.

Russia's economy is likely entering a year of pain in 2025.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has restructured its economy to prioritize its war efforts, imposing export bans, tapping its national wealth fund, and strengthening trade with non-Western countries.

But unprecedented defense spending, labor shortages, and Western sanctions have come at a cost, and some believe the country is reaching the limits of its capacity.

Economists told Business Insider that while they don't expect Russia's economy to collapse, they said it would face a tough 2025 if it keeps on fighting in Ukraine.

Persisting inflation

"Russia has set in motion processes that will continue to eat out its economy from within," Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University, told BI.

He said that if the war continues, "it will put a significant strain on the already bleeding Russian budget."

Russia has increasingly boosted its defense spending to sustain its war efforts, from $59 billion in 2022 to $109 billion in 2023, and $126.8 billion set aside in 2025, when defense will make up 32.5% of Russia's federal budget, up from 28.3% this year.

While soaring defense spending has fueled Russia's economy in recent years, it has also contributed to rising inflation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin said could hit 9.5% in 2025.

To rein this in, the country's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to 21% in October, a record high, which has eaten into companies' profit margins.

The bank was expected to raise the rate again in December, but held off, though it may need to increase it next year.

"The main question is how high the inflation will be and how the slowing down will materialize," Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told BI.

Putin has acknowledged that inflation is at "a relatively high level." Speaking at an investment forum in Moscow earlier this month, he urged his government and the central bank to curb it.

TsMAKP, a Russian think tank, warned last month that Russia's failure to tame inflation was driving the country toward stagflation, a scenario in which growth is low and inflation high, and which is harder to escape than a recession.

"The overall trend is pretty grim," said Kolyandr. "I would say it's overall stagnation akin to what the Soviet Union had at the beginning of the 1980s."

The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991.

Slowing economic growth

Russia is expected to experience lower-than-expected economic growth in 2025. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF dropped its GDP growth estimate for Russia from 1.5% to 1.3%.

"Overall growth will be quite slow," Iikka Korhonen, the head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, told BI.

However, he said the Kremlin will make sure that military production has enough resources.

But "many sectors will most likely contract," he said.

US sanctions on Gazprombank and other financial institutions in November caused the ruble to plummet, according to The Wall Street Journal, which also said that companies were slashing expansion plans.

It reported that more than 200 shopping centers in Russia are under threat of bankruptcy due to rising debt burdens and almost a third of Russian freight haulers say they fear bankruptcy in 2025.

Russia's largest mobile operator, MTS, also blamed an almost 90% drop in Q3 net profits on costs related to interest payments.

"The elites are fighting for survival, and while they remain loyal to Putin, they are increasingly discontent," Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the Journal.

In fact, in recent months, Russian CEOs and business leaders have increased their vitriol against interest-rate hikes and Western sanctions.

Sergei Chemezov, CEO of defense conglomerate Roste, told Russian senators in late October that sky-high interest rates were leaving companies struggling to turn a profit.

Oil and gas prices

While Russia's share of oil and gas revenues has fluctuated in recent years, and dropped in 2023, Russia expects it to account for about 27% of the country's total budget revenue in 2025.

"As long as Russia can sell as much crude oil as it is now selling with the current prices, they will have enough tax revenue for the war well into 2025," Korhonen said.

Earlier this month, Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft agreed to a 10-year, $13 billion deal to supply crude oil to India, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal.

However, Center for European Policy Analysis' Kolyandr said he believes Russia's revenue outlook is "over-optimistic," since "global oil prices might be lower than the government thinks."

Traders expect global oil prices to fall from a projected $80 a barrel in 2024 to between $65 and $71 in 2025, due to sluggish demand, production from non-OPEC+ countries, and a shift toward cleaner energies.

While G7 countries have set a $60 price cap on Russian oil since December 2022, Russia has partly evaded the cap by using a shadow fleet, redirecting oil exports to countries like China and India, and inflating ancillary costs to obscure purchase prices.

But the tightening of Western sanctions could further reduce Russia's oil and gas revenues.

Reserves

Russia's economic performance in 2025 will ultimately come down to the availability of resources, said Korhonen.

"There will be a deficit, but it can initially be financed from the National Welfare Fund," he said.

Russia's National Warfare Fund has assets amounting to about $131.1 billion as of October, while the central bank has about $614.4 billion in international reserves.

Kolyandr, meanwhile, said that "whether Russia is going to face any crisis in 2025" would depend on everything that will happen in 2025, including oil prices, sanctions, President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies, and the Russian labor market.

"The Russian economy will continue to fall," said Weatherhead School of Management's Sheremeta, "which will restrict Russia's ability to wage war."

But he added: "Much will depend on the Western support of Ukraine."

• Multiple prohibited items were found in a woman's bag at Los Angeles International Airport, per the TSA.
• A TSA officer flagged the bag after spotting the items in an X-ray image.
• Jason Pantages, LAX TSA Federal Security Director, said the incident was "extremely concerning."

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said one of its officers found fireworks, knives, and other prohibited items in a woman's carry-on bag as she attempted to catch a flight at Los Angeles International Airport earlier this month.

In a recent press release, the TSA said one of its officers flagged the bag after spotting the items in an X-ray image.

"When the bag was opened with the passenger present, the TSA officer was shocked at its contents," the TSA said.

The bag, which belonged to a female passenger set to travel to Philadelphia, contained 82 consumer-grade fireworks, three knives, two replica firearms, and one canister of pepper spray, it added.

The incident occurred at LAX's Terminal 4 at around 10 p.m. local time on December 15.

The TSA said it informed the Los Angeles World Airport (LAWA) police department and that officers went to the security checkpoint and interrogated the traveler while a bomb squad confiscated the fireworks.

Jason Pantages, LAX TSA Federal Security Director, described the find as "extremely concerning."

"This traveler should have followed TSA's tried and true advice - unpack your bag before you pack it to ensure you don't bring any prohibited items to the security checkpoint," he said. "We are in the midst of the holiday travel season when security checkpoints will be busy everywhere."

The TSA reminded travelers that fireworks are not allowed on board an aircraft in carry-on or checked luggage and that knives and replica firearms should travel in checked baggage.

It also said that one four-ounce container of pepper spray is permitted in checked luggage as long as it has a safety mechanism to avoid "accidental discharge."

It comes as airports across the US brace for a busy festive season.

More than 3.2 million people are expected to pass through Los Angeles International Airport during the holidays, the Los Angeles Times reported.

The TSA, meanwhile, said it expected to screen nearly 40 million people from December 19 to January 2, up 6.2% from last year. It forecasts the busiest days as December 20, 27, and 30.

TSA and LAWA didn't immediately respond to requests for comments made outside working hours.

• A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea, per Russia's foreign ministry.
• The Ursa Major ship went down after an explosion in the engine room, the ministry said.
• It comes after Ukraine said Moscow had sent four ships to Russian military bases in Syria.

A Russian-flagged cargo vessel has sunk in the Mediterranean Sea after an explosion in its engine room, Russia's foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

Fourteen crew members were rescued, but two were missing, the ministry's situation and crisis unit said in a Telegram post.

The ministry said the vessel, the Ursa Major, was owned by SK-YUG LLC, a Russian shipping company also known as SC South that has been sanctioned by the US.

Spain's Maritime Rescue agency told Business Insider that it had received a distress alert call from the Ursa Major last night.

It said the ship was 57 nautical miles off the coast of Almeria in southern Spain in bad weather conditions. This prompted the maritime rescue centers of Almeria, Cartagena, and Madrid to coordinate a rescue effort, it added.

The 14 people rescued were transferred to the Spanish port city of Cartagena, the agency said, adding that another Russian ship later arrived in the area and took over the rescue operations.

Ship tracking data said the 466-foot Ursa Major, built in 2009, last departed from St. Petersburg on December 11.

It comes after Ukraine's intelligence directorate reported on Monday that a Russian cargo ship called Sparta had broken down near Portugal after the engine failed.

The GUR said the ship had been sent to evacuate Russian weapons and equipment from Syria.

The crew was able to fix the vessel, and it continued on through the Strait of Gibraltar, the GUR said.

It remains unclear whether the Sparta and the Ursa Major are the same ship. Maritime tracking data shows that the Ursa Major was previously named Sparta III.

Moscow has operated two military facilities in Syria, the Hmeimin airbase and the Tartus naval base. Both have been crucial for projecting Russia's influence across the Middle East and Africa.

The fall of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad earlier this month has called the future of the bases into question.

Ukraine's GUR said earlier this month that Russia had deployed four ships to help evacuate equipment in Syria, including ships named the Sparta and Sparta II.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

• Russia sent a ship to evacuate soldiers from its bases in Syria, per Ukrainian intelligence.
• But it broke down en route in the open sea near Portugal, Ukraine said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

A ship sent to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria broke down while in the open sea off Portugal, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

In a Telegram post on Monday, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate said that the Sparta cargo ship's engine failed and that the crew was trying to fix the problem while the ship was drifting in the high seas.

Since the fall of Bashar Assad, Syria's longtime ruler, earlier this month, the fate of Russia's two military bases in the country — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — has been under threat.

Russia struck a 49-year lease with Assad's government for the bases, which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

But Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, overthrew Assad earlier this month, after a rapid two-week campaign.

Last week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there were "no final decisions" about Russia's bases in Syria but that Moscow is in contact with "representatives of the forces that currently control the situation" in the country.

Earlier this month, Ukraine said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships had left Russia and were heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

The journeys required the ships to sail along stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russian state media said earlier this month that Syrian rebel forces now controlled Latakia province, where the Russian bases are located.

Images taken in mid-December by Maxar Technologies showed Russian aircraft still present at the base in Hmeimim, but warships no longer stationed at the nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Last week, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia was probably taking this "tentative" stance and removing some assets in case HTS decided to deny Russia a sustained military presence in Syria.

Obeida Arnaout, the spokesman for Syria's new transitional government, told the Associated Press last week that Russia should reconsider its presence and interests in Syria.

"Their interests were linked to the criminal Assad regime," he said.

"They can reconsider and take the initiatives to reach out to the new administration to show that they have no animosity with the Syrian people, and that the era of Assad regime is finally over," he added.

• Javier Milei, the Argentine leader who has inspired Elon Musk, says he plans to cut how many taxes there are.
• He said he was planning to "eliminate 90% of taxes — not revenue, but the number of taxes."
• Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, co-heads of DOGE, are looking to radically trim the US federal government.

Argentina's President Javier Milei says he will reform the Argentine tax system to have no more than 6 taxes.

In a clip from an interview with Forbes Argentina, published on Sunday, Milei said: "We'll advance privatization, deepen labor reforms, and eliminate 90% of taxes — not revenue, but the number of taxes — moving to a simplified system with no more than six taxes at most."

It would be the latest sweeping move by a firebrand president who has inspired members of the incoming Trump administration.

Since taking power on December 10, 2023, Milei has presided over sweeping cuts. He fired tens of thousands of public employees, shut down half the country's 18 ministries, and reduced state spending by an estimated 31% in his first 10 months alone — making good on his pledge to take a "chainsaw" to the state.

Milei's actions caught the attention of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the men now charged with a similar task under President-elect Donald Trump.

Last month, Musk said Argentina had made "impressive progress,'" while Ramaswamy said that the US needed "Milei-style cuts on steroids."

In the interview, Milei said his administration had only accomplished the "first step" of its plan, and that what was coming next was the "deep chainsaw."

"It is not only a question of deregulating and removing these obstacles, but it also implies a new reform of the state to make it even smaller," he said.

Milei added that his administration has so far only implemented a quarter of the reforms it wants to pursue.

Argentina's latest economic figures suggest the country may be turning a corner after struggling economically.

Argentina's inflation dropped from 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.4% in November 2024. However, unemployment rose to 6.9% in Q3, from 5.7% in the same period last year.

Economic activity, meanwhile, grew 3.9% in Q3, compared to Q2.

According to BBVA projections, Argentina will achieve a fiscal balance in 2024 for the first time in 15 years. It also said that it expects Argentina's GDP to rebound strongly next year, from a 3.8% deficit in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, driven by investments and private consumption.

However, Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, a political consultancy firm, told Reuters this month that Milei's cuts had ignited a "major" recession, and according to Argentina's statistics agency, the country's poverty rate rose to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, the highest rate in 30 years.

Speaking at an event at Argentina's Chamber of Commerce and Services last month, Milei said the recession was "over," after the country had gone through "a difficult period of effort and pain."

And in an episode of the Lex Fridman podcast last month, Milei advised Musk and Ramaswamy to go "all the way" in cutting US federal spending.

Reacting to Milei's latest interview on X, where he talked about eliminating the taxes, Musk wrote one word: "Impressive."

• Elon Musk tried to play down his role in tanking a government spending bill on Thursday.
• Democrats have started calling him "President Musk," in a move likely to frustrate Donald Trump.
• "Trump must absolutely hate the whole President Musk thing," one commentator said.

Elon Musk has tried to downplay his influence in helping tank a government funding bill, and after Democrats started referring to him as "President Musk."

In a series of X posts on Thursday night, Musk tried to distance himself from Democrats' claims that he is now the de facto leader of the Republican Party.

Musk, who will co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency under President-elect Donald Trump, had criticized the first version of the spending bill earlier this week, calling for it to be "killed."

A revised spending bill that he helped usher in then failed to get enough votes, potentially setting the stage for a government shutdown.

"Objectively, the vast majority of Republican House members voted for the spending bill, but only 2 Democrats did," Musk wrote in response. "Therefore, if the government shuts down, it is obviously the fault of @RepJeffries and the Democratic Party."

Before the vote, Musk had posted: "First of all, I'm not the author of this proposal. Credit to @realDonaldTrump, @JDVance & @SpeakerJohnson."

All but 38 House Republicans voted for the revised bill, but it fell short of the two-thirds majority required to extend government funding until March.

Democrats seized on the opportunity to embarrass Trump by portraying him as a subordinate of Musk.

Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania said, "The leader of the GOP is Elon Musk," adding, "He's now calling the shots."

Rep. Greg Casar of Texas asked if Musk was "kind of cosplaying co-President here," adding, "I don't know why Trump doesn't just hand him the Oval Office."

Meanwhile, Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democratic member on the House Appropriations Committee, said Republicans "got scared" because "President Musk said: 'Don't do it — shut the government down.'"

Others also weighed in.

"Welcome to the Elon Musk presidency," Rep. Robert Garcia of California said in a post on Thursday.

"It's clear who's in charge, and it's not President-elect Donald Trump," Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington added.

After Thursday's vote, Musk reacted favorably to a post that said the reason Democrats keep saying "President" Elon Musk was to "drive a wedge" between him and Trump.

Charlie Sykes, a political commentator and author of "How the Right Lost Its Mind," wrote that Musk had committed two cardinal sins: "upstaging" Trump and being responsible for an "embarrassing defeat."

"Trump must absolutely hate the whole President Musk thing," he added.

• North Korean troops are engaged in combat against Ukrainian forces, the White House said.
• They've had a rough start, and seem to lack experience with drones and working with Russians.
• This has led to reported losses, but analysts said they should be able to learn to adapt.

North Korean troops have engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, with media and intelligence reports suggesting they're off to a rough start.

Footage obtained by Radio Liberty on Monday showed Ukraine striking a group of soldiers, with sources telling the outlet that North Koreans were among them.

The same day, Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops were operating in big groups out in the open, and were getting killed by drones they didn't realize were dangerous.

A senior US military official said this week that North Korea's dead and wounded could now be counted in the hundreds.

Military analysts told BI that, while the limited number of early reports makes it difficult to give a definitive assessment, they're not surprised by the reports.

"The North Koreans are taking apparently unnecessary casualties as they are rushed into combat without a period of training on the unique threats here," said Wallace Gregson, a former US Marine Corps officer and former assistant defense secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.

Uncharted territory

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

Evans Revere, a senior advisor with Albright Stonebridge Group, said that while North Korean troops seemed "disciplined" and "tough," their lack of experience in ground combat and unfamiliarity with drone warfare was taking its toll.

He said that the reported casualty numbers suggest that North Korean forces are in the "thick of heavy fighting" and that "if the North Koreans continue to suffer casualties at this rate, they will very soon require fresh forces."

Revere also said their lack of Russian language and absence of experience in training and operating jointly with Russian forces seemed to be a problem.

On Saturday, Ukrainian intelligence said North Korean troops opened fire on Russian military vehicles, killing eight soldiers, due to a language barrier between the two forces.

Too early, too inexperienced

The last time North Korean troops really fought was during the Korean War, where fighting ended in 1953.

Gregson said that this time around, Russia may have thrown North Korean troops to the front in earlier waves of attacks, which he said usually include the "least-trained" soldiers.

He told BI that "high casualties" weren't unexpected, given their light infantry capabilities and the likely language barrier.

However, he said you needed to respect their "apparent courage and determination — and sacrifice — in a conflict not of their choosing far from their home."

Military analysts also said that the North Korean troops could soon adapt to the new battlefield conditions.

Revere said it won't be long before the North Koreans learn how to operate in this environment.

However, he said it's "still not clear" how well Russian and North Korean troops are operating in tandem, or whether Russian commanders are providing good leadership and guidance.

The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Thursday that Russian and North Korean forces were "almost certainly" experiencing difficulties, with North Korean troops struggling to integrate into Russia's command and control structure.

Another major issue is their unfamiliarity with modern battlefield warfare.

John Hardie, the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the evidence so far suggests North Korean troops were unprepared for the drone threat.

But, he said, "I suspect they'll adapt with time and may have started doing so already."

Covering up deaths

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia has been trying to conceal North Korean deaths. In a nightly address on Monday, he claimed that Russian forces were burning the faces of killed soldiers to conceal their identity.

Revere said attempts to cover up the deaths were likely part of Russia's effort to avoid admitting to the Russian people that the country lacks the ability to defeat Ukraine by itself.

North Korea has also often been the object of ridicule in Russia, he added, "so for the Russians to have to admit their need for DPRK support would be embarrassing."

For North Korea, the stakes are also high.

Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, said that Kim Jong Un is taking risks by sending troops to support Russia, especially potential elite-class military personnel.

He said that Kim is unlikely to want to return the bodies of those killed to their families, fearing potential instability inside North Korea.

"Kim will likely prefer that the soldiers who are killed simply disappear," he said.

• North Korean troops don't realize drones are dangerous and are sitting ducks, Ukraine troops said.
• They have engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk, per US and Ukraine officials.
• A couple hundred were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a US official said.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops are frequently getting killed by drones they don't seem to consider dangerous.

The accounts point to an apparent gap in the knowledge of the troops sent by Kim Jong Un to support Russia's invasion.

The prevalence and effectiveness of drones is a defining feature of the war in Ukraine, and experienced soldiers there have described to Business Insider a widespread fear of them.

But North Korea's troops are new to the war, separated by a language barrier, and appear not to have the same approach.

Three Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region of Russia told the Post that waves of what seemed to be North Korean forces advanced directly at Ukrainian positions defended by drones and other weapons.

"We were very surprised; we had never seen anything like it — 40 to 50 people running across a field," one drone commander told the Post.

"FPV drones, artillery, and other weapons struck them because they were moving in the open field," he said. "You can imagine the result."

Another drone operator, Artem, told the outlet that instead of running away from the drones, the North Korean troops shot at them "indiscriminately," while others just kept moving. Many were killed, he said.

During a nighttime drone operation, Artem said he recognized three soldiers based on their heat signatures on a thermal camera and anticipated killing only one — but when the other two failed to react fast enough, he and his comrades struck all three.

He described the experience as "bizarre," adding, "It was the first time it felt like playing a computer simulator on easy mode."

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

During a press briefing that same day, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said they had indications that North Korean soldiers engaged in combat in Kursk had suffered losses.

At least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded during assault operations near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka in or near the Kursk region last weekend, Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) said on Monday.

A couple hundred North Korean troops were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a senior military official told the Associated Press on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the GUR said North Korean troops had set up extra observation posts, fearing Ukrainian drone attacks after suffering serious losses.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Russia's head of chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday when a scooter bomb exploded in Moscow.
• Ukraine was behind the attack, a Ukrainian Security Service source told BI.
• Igor Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia invaded Ukraine.

A high-ranking Russian general responsible for Russia's chemical weapons was killed on Tuesday by a bomb placed in a scooter on a Moscow street.

A source inside Ukraine's Security Service with knowledge of the attack told Business Insider the agency was behind the death of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov.

The Wall Street Journal also reported Ukrainian officials as saying the killing was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine.

Kirillov, the head of Russia's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed by a bomb planted in a scooter parked on a street in Moscow, Russia's investigative committee said in a statement on Telegram on Tuesday.

"According to the investigation, on the morning of December 17, an explosive device was detonated in a scooter parked next to the entrance of a residential building on Ryazansky Prospekt in Moscow," the statement said.

"As a result of the incident, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Kirillov and his assistant were killed," it added.

The committee said it had opened a criminal case and that investigators and forensic experts were working at the scene.

The Russian investigations committee didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

According to the Ukrainian source, the bomb on the scooter was detonated when Kirillov and his assistant were entering a nearby house on Ryazansky Prospekt. BI couldn't independently verify the claim.

"Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target," they said, accusing Kirillov of giving orders to use banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces.

"Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable," they added.

Kirillov is the most prominent military official to be killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Financial Times.

He was sanctioned by the UK in October for the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, including the choking agent chloropicrin.

Kirillov's death follows a string of similar attacks, some of which sources said were the work of Ukraine's Security Service or other agencies.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council and a former Russian president, described Kirillov's killing as a terrorist attack, and offered his condolences to Kirillov's family, per the TASS news agency.

He also said that Ukraine would pay for its actions.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

• 6 tourists were hospitalized after drinking piña coladas at a resort in Fiji.
• The patients were four Australians, an American, and two others, per Fiji's health ministry.
• Officials said the Fiji case was isolated, though it resembles a recent spate of tourist deaths in Laos.

A group of tourists was taken to the hospital after drinking cocktails at a five-star resort in Fiji.

Fiji's health ministry said there were seven tourists aged 18 to 56: four Australians, one American, and two of unspecified nationality.

They were taken to Sigatoka Hospital after suffering nausea, vomiting, and "neurological symptoms" after drinking piña coladas at the Warwick Fiji Hotel, per The Fiji Times.

In a Facebook post on Monday, Fiji officials said the patients were transferred to Lautoka Hospital for additional medical attention.

Six were admitted for treatment there, an official said. It was unclear what happened to the seventh.

Viliame Gavoka, Fiji's deputy prime minister, said that as of Monday evening, four had been discharged, while two were in stable condition in the ICU.

The incident comes after six tourists died in Laos in a similar case. Media reports said Laotian authorities suspect they drank bootleg liquor that contained methanol.

Brent Hill, CEO of Fiji's national tourist office, told Radio New Zealand on Monday that the country's authorities took the case "very seriously" but that what happened was "a long way" from the Laos case.

He said they did not suspect anything "malicious", and were awaiting toxicology results.

Asked whether methanol was to blame, Jemesa Tudravu, permanent secretary for Fiji's health ministry, said authorities don't yet know, per local media.

David Sandoe, an Australian whose daughter and granddaughter were among those treated, told Australia's ABC on Monday his relatives were discharged from the hospital and were scheduled to fly home Monday night.

He said they are doing "very well considering what they've been through."

Viliame Gavoka, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation, described the case as a "very isolated" incident with no parallel he could recall.

The Warwick Fiji Hotel told the BBC it was "conducting a thorough investigation" to "gather all necessary information" while waiting for test results.

Methanol, a flavorless, colorless alcohol common in cleaning products, adhesives, and paints, can cause drowsiness, a reduced level of consciousness, confusion, headache, dizziness, and the inability to coordinate muscle movement.

It can also cause nausea, vomiting, and heart and respiratory failure, which usually appear after 1 to 72 hours, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

According to Médecins Sans Frontières, Asia has the highest incidence of methanol poisoning in the world, with Indonesia topping the list.

Fiji's authorities and the Warwick Fiji Hotel didn't immediately respond to requests for comments made outside working hours.

• Russia is dispatching four ships to its bases in Syria, per Ukraine's main intelligence directorate.
• They will evacuate weapons and military equipment from its key base in Tartus, they said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

Russia is sending four ships to its bases in Syria to evacuate weapons and military equipment, according to Ukraine's main intelligence directorate (GUR).

In a Telegram post on Thursday, the GUR said that Russia was moving its Ivan Gren-class large landing ship and the Ropucha-class tank landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Norwegian Sea to Tartus on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

Their mission, it said, is to evacuate weapons and equipment.

It also said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships left Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast, and St Petersburg, respectively, and are heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base.

The trips are long voyages, requiring the ships to sail long stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russia was a close ally of Syria's recently-toppled ruler Bashar Assad. It struck a 49-year lease with his government for two bases in Syria — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

However, these bases have come under threat after Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Assad on Sunday and formed a transitional government.

On Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

The TASS state news agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying that Russia established direct contact with HTS in Damascus.

Sources familiar with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Thursday that talks were taking place for Russian forces to stay at the bases and that Russia was nearing a deal with Syria's new leadership.

Images taken this week by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider on Tuesday showed Russian aircraft still present at the Hmeimim Air Base, but warships no longer stationed at its nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Videos captured by The Times of London's Middle East correspondent on Friday showed Russian trucks entering the Hmeimim Air Base.

On Thursday, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia's ships may be on the move as a precaution in case it needs more comprehensive evacuations.

They also said that it would probably take weeks for the Russian ships to get to Tartus.

• Ukraine is making videos and dropping leaflets on North Korean troops to get them to surrender.
• North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, per sources.
• "Many see it as a chance to escape the regime," the project's spokesman told Euronews.

Ukraine is trying to persuade North Korean soldiers to surrender rather than fight alongside Russia.

Ukrainian intelligence services have been distributing leaflets via drones and projectiles, and making videos urging North Korean troops to desert, according to Euronews.

Vitality Matvienko, spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" project, told Euronews that "of course, not everyone wants to fight."

"We know very well the living conditions in North Korea," he said. "Therefore, many see it as a chance to escape the regime and go to another country."

Ukraine is carrying out its efforts under "I Want to Live," a service that has facilitated Russian soldiers' surrender. In October 2022, Russia blocked access to its hotline and chatbot, though it is still accessible in the country via VPN.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months, with a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers serving in Russia within a year.

Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project told Business Insider the leaflets state that Kim Il Sung — North Korea's founder — does not want North Korean soldiers to fight for Russian "imperialists."

The leaflets also contain step-by-step instructions on how to surrender, with guarantees and benefits for those prisoners of war, it said.

It declined to disclose other methods being used to convince North Korean troops to surrender.

"I Want to Live" posted a video on its Telegram channel earlier this month showing a North Korean volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces calling on his countrymen to take their chance.

"We will not just welcome you but help you start a new life," he said. "Support, work, and the opportunity to live a decent life are waiting for you here. Even money, so you can start your way with a clean slate."

The text accompanying the video said Ukraine guaranteed all prisoners humane treatment. "Far away from 'Big Brother,' who watches over all the inhabitants of North Korea, it is a sin not to take advantage of this unique opportunity," it said.

In October, Ukraine's military intelligence agency put out a statement with the promise of providing comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korean soldiers who surrendered.

It also published a Korean-language video showcasing its prisoner-of-war camps, as well as the meals served there.

Last month, South Korean intelligence estimated that Russia was paying about $2,000 a month for each soldier.

But Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, told BI that he suspects the money is going directly to North Korea's ruling elite.

"Perhaps only a small amount or even nothing" will go to the soldiers themselves, he said.

• The Pentagon denied the claim that drones hovering over New Jersey were from an Iranian mothership.
• Rep. Jeff Van Drew made the claim to Fox News on Wednesday, citing "very qualified" sources.
• Federal, state, and local officials have been probing unexplained drone activity over the state.

The mysterious drones spotted hovering over New Jersey did not come from an "Iranian mothership," according to the Pentagon.

The statement was issued after dozens of drones were spotted across sensitive military locations across New Jersey.

Drones have also been seen over President-elect Donald Trump's New Jersey golf course.

Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew told Fox News on Wednesday that "very qualified" and "reliable" sources had indicated they came from an "Iranian mothership" in the Atlantic.

"They've launched drones into everything that we can see or hear," Van Drew said, adding that the drones should be "shot down."

Van Drew sits on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the Aviation Subcommittee.

However, at a press briefing on Wednesday, Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon's deputy press secretary, said: "There is not any truth to that."

"There is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States, and there's no so-called mothership launching drones toward the United States," she said, adding that at this time, there is no evidence that these activities are coming from a "foreign entity or the work of an adversary."

The state police said on November 19 that officers had witnessed "drone activity" the night before over Morris County after rumors were "spreading on social media."

The officers' sightings prompted the FBI to open an investigation and the Federal Aviation Administration to impose flight restrictions.

Last week, Phil Murphy, governor of New Jersey, said he convened a briefing with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and senior officials from the DHS, the state's Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness, and the state's police to discuss reported drone activity.

On Monday, he told reporters they didn't have answers about where the drones were coming from or what they were doing but that he took the sightings "deadly seriously."

He said that 49 drone sightings were reported on Sunday alone, but the DHS, the FBI, the Secret Service, the state police, and authorities at all levels of government didn't have any concerns for public safety.

However, on Wednesday, Assemblywoman Dawn Fantasia dismissed the claim that there is no known or credible threat as "incredibly misleading."

In an X post, Fantasia described the drones as six feet large in diameter, operating in a coordinated manner, with lights turned off, appearing to avoid detection by traditional methods, and not identified as hobbyist drones or related to DHS.

"At this point, I believe military intervention is the only path forward," she said, adding: "There will be no answers in the absence of proactivity."

More than 20 mayors across New Jersey signed a letter on Monday calling for "transparency" about the investigations.

"Either higher-level officials know what's going on and are not concerned, or they are negligent for not apprehending and identifying one of these drones," they wrote, per reports.

The FAA told BI that it continues to support interagency partners to assess the situation and the reported sightings.

The FBI, the New Jersey State Police, and the Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness didn't immediately respond to requests for comments from Business Insider.

• Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to Syrian rebel forces, The Washington Post reported.
• Groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Bashar Assad's decades-old rule on Sunday.
• The Ukrainian aid played a modest role in toppling him, Western intel sources told the outlet.

Ukrainian intelligence supplied Syrian rebels with about 150 drones and 20 drone operators last month, shortly before the offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, The Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities.

Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives as part of efforts to weaken Russia and its Syrian allies in the region, sources familiar with Ukraine's operations abroad told the Post.

Business Insider was unable to independently verify the report.

The military aid played a modest role in ousting Assad, Western intelligence sources told the outlet.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Assad after a lightning two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and ended Assad's 24-year rule.

The Post's report would be in keeping with Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's influence abroad.

Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.

A source within Ukraine's military intelligence agency told the outlet in June that since the start of the year, Ukrainian operatives had supported Syrian rebels in inflicting "numerous" strikes on Russian military facilities in the region.

In September, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Ukrainian intelligence emissaries in Idlib, in Syria's northwest, were conducting "new dirty operations" and recruiting rebel fighters there.

Last month, Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence was arming "terrorists" in Idlib and that Ukrainian specialists were present there.

Ukraine's intelligence services didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.

Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that if Ukraine is confirmed to have sent drones and drone operators to Syria, it would be surprising given how "problematic" the situation is in eastern Ukraine.

"I am not sure Ukraine can gain a lot by engaging in these types of operations," Libman said. "Rather, it will simply waste resources it needs to fight the war on Ukrainian soil itself."

The collapse of Assad, however, could jeopardize Russia's military footprint in Syria, where it could lose control over the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Russia has used those bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

Satellite images taken earlier this week by Maxar Technologies, obtained by BI, show Russian aircraft still present at Hmeimim, but Russian warships no longer present at Tartus.

• Javier Milei became Argentina's president a year ago, partly on a pledge to slash the state.
• Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, co-heads of DOGE, have expressed admiration for Milei's policies.
• While his government brought inflation down, his approaches have also triggered a recession.

When Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, the firebrand Argentine president inherited an economy in meltdown. Milei promised to take a "chainsaw" to the state.

Since then, he has presided over sweeping spending cuts, fired tens of thousands of public employees, shut down half the country's 18 ministries, and devalued the peso against the dollar by over 50%. He cut state spending by an estimated 31% in his first 10 months alone.

The measures caught the attention of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the men now charged with a similar task under President-elect Donald Trump.

Last month, Musk said Argentina had made "impressive progress,'" while Ramaswamy said that the US needed "Milei-style cuts on steroids."

Falling inflation

A year into Milei's term in office, BI took a look at the figures.

When Milei took over in December 2023, Argentina's inflation stood at 25.5%, while economic activity had fallen 4.5% year over year.

Argentina's inflation rate dropped to 2.7% this October — the lowest level in three years, according to the predicting market website Kalshi.

Ignacio Labaqui, a senior analyst at Medley Global Advisors, a leading macro policy research service, called this a "success" for Milei.

He said that Milei "managed to bring inflation down faster than expected despite starting his term with a 100% increase in the exchange rate and hiking longtime frozen utilities' tariffs — two measures that have an inflationary impact."

However, Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, a political consultancy firm, told Reuters that Milei's cuts have ignited a "major" recession.

Unemployment up

According to BBVA projections, Argentina's GDP contracted by 3.4% in the first half of 2024, and it is expected to decline by 4% for the full year.

The country's unemployment rate also rose to 7.6% in Q2, up from 6.2% in the same period last year, according to Argentina's statistics agency.

Maria Victoria Murillo, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, told BI last month that the "deep" recession, while "very painful," has been accepted by Argentinians because inflation was "terrible" and people "do not want to go back."

Meanwhile, according to Argentina's statistics agency, the country's poverty rate rose to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, up from 41.7% in the second half of 2023.

This was the highest rate in 30 years, per a research team at the Observatory of the Argentine Social Debt, which keeps track of key economic indicators.

While acknowledging declining inflation, it said growing poverty was a result of Milei's "shock" economic plan and structural issues, including the devaluation of the peso.

Falling inflation "does not yet translate into a greater capacity for household consumption," it said.

Fiscal balance

There are, however, some signs of recovery.

In the first five months of 2024, Argentina's government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP — its first in 12 years.

This is Milei's "most remarkable achievement," said Labaqui of Medley Global Advisors, who said the fiscal surplus, together with the exchange rate anchor, brought inflation down faster than expected.

BBVA Research, for its part, said that it expects Argentina's GDP to rebound strongly next year, from a 4% deficit in 2024 to 6% in 2025, driven by investments, exports, and private consumption.

Juan Cruz Díaz, managing director at Cefeidas Group, an international advisory firm, told BI that "one year later, it can be argued that the economic landscape has certainly improved, although there is still a long way to go."

He said that Argentina is still expected to end 2024 with an accumulated inflation of 120%, one of the highest in the world, but a sharp decline from 2023's 211%.

"In addition, Milei has promoted a regime to attract large foreign investments in certain sectors of the economy, with some initiatives already underway," he said.

Cruz Díaz added that one of the surprising aspects of the last year has been Milei's ability to "keep his public image relatively stable throughout the year, despite having implemented deep cuts in public spending, along with other measures generally considered unpopular and politically costly, such as the elimination of subsidies for energy and other essential services."

This is something that could be of particular interest to Musk and Ramaswamy, as they look at sweeping federal budget cuts in the US.

Labaqui, for his part, said keeping Argentina's current trajectory will depend on whether Milei's party performs "strongly" in next year's legislative elections.

"Inflation certainly is falling at a faster-than-anticipated pace," he said, "and there is an incipient economic rebound, but there is still a lot to do to bring the economy back on track."

• The downfall of Assad has threatened Russia's military presence in Syria along with its wider strategic objectives.
• Russia's bases in Syria made it a major diplomatic player in the Middle East.
• The bases were also crucial for its activities in Africa.

The fall of Bashar Assad has thrown Russia's military presence in Syria into question. It also poses a threat to Russia's ability to project power throughout the Middle East and beyond.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, overthrew Syria's longtime autocratic ruler.

It followed a dizzying two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and many are now trying to work out what will come next for the country.

Russia has been a close ally of Syria and has leases on two military bases in the country, giving it a strategic foothold in the Middle East.

"It hits them hard," Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, said of Russia.

He added: "Syria has been their most reliable Arab ally."

A springboard to power

In 2017, Syria granted Russia a 49-year lease on the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base, in return for military assistance.

Russia has used the bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

"These bases are the most important bases outside the direct sphere of Russian influence," Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told Business Insider.

Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND, told BI that despite its massive landmass, Russia "doesn't have great geography for power projection."

"It doesn't have warm water ports that have direct access to the oceans," she added. "And so having a port in the Mediterranean is incredibly strategically useful."

Hmeimim, meanwhile, gives Russia a refueling base and overflight access throughout the Middle East and on to Africa, she said.

On Sunday, Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia had pulled two ships from Tartus, and had transferred weapons from Hmeimim.

BI was unable to independently verify the report.

But satellite images captured by Planet Labs PBC show Russian warships that had been seen in Tartus earlier this month were gone as of Monday.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia intended to have serious discussions with future Syrian authorities about access to the bases, but that it is too soon for now.

The potential loss of influence in Syria is not just about state power. The bases have also allowed support for the activities of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.

"If you look at the Wagner footprint in Africa, you can tell that it's been enabled by the fact that they have that access in Syria to support those operations," said Dailey.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, losing the bases in Syria will "immediately" interrupt Wagner's rotation and resupply efforts.

Russia's ambitions for global leadership

Russia's involvement in Syria is a legacy of the Soviet era when the USSR traditionally maintained strong ties with other socialist states.

Russia propped up the Assad regime for more than a decade, notably sending aid during the 2011 Arab Spring, and troops and weapons to help counter the uprising in 2015.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had many reasons to stick his neck out for Assad.

"By backing Assad, Russia positioned itself as an indispensable player in regional politics, thereby increasing its diplomatic leverage," said Ali Bilgic, a professor in international relations and Middle East politics at the UK's Loughborough University.

But the huge cost of invading Ukraine appears to have forced Russia to choose between the two.

It "really speaks to how stretched thin Russian forces are," according to Dailey.

Putin has based Russia's international stature on the idea it can play a major role in different parts of the world, said Cristian Nitoiu, a Russia-focused lecturer in diplomacy and foreign affairs, also at Loughborough University.

Yet Putin's refusal to help Assad this time "basically shows that Russia was unable to support one of its long-lasting friends," Nitoiu said.

"The events in Syria can be seen as a sort of strategic failure on the part of Russia, and the optics look really bad," he added.

An uncertain future

In a statement on Sunday, Russia's foreign ministry said it was maintaining contact with "all" Syrian opposition groups, adding that while Russia's Syrian bases are on high alert, there's no serious threat to their security at the moment.

Russia has called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham a terror group — so the fact that they are communicating with rebel groups now "demonstrates the importance of these bases," Dailey said.

HTS is also designated a terror group by the US and the UN.

What the US does regarding events in Syria will also be pivotal to what sort of foothold Russia can maintain, Loughborough University's Bilgic said.

On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

Should the US withdraw all involvement, Russia could exploit any ensuing power vacuum. But "this scenario appears improbable," Bilgic said.

In fact, diminishing Russian influence in Syria is a huge strategic draw for the US, he said, adding that there is also a concern that a new Russia-backed government could give room to ISIS, as well as threats to Israeli security.

Russia's presence in Syria has also helped it shape its objectives in energy markets, Bilgic said.

"Economically, the Tartus base played a role in Russia's energy strategy, helping to counter competing projects like the Qatar-Turkey pipeline," he said.

A grim reminder

What has happened in Syria in recent days may lead to some sleepless nights in Russia.

"I think it will rattle some folks in the Kremlin to see just how quickly Russia's military had to withdraw," Dailey said.

Assad's fall may also be a grim reminder for those in power in Russia of the necessity of crushing domestic resistance quickly, she said.

"Anyone in the Kremlin, because they've studied Russian history, knows that an autocratic regime can crumble very quickly."

• Rebels toppled the Assad regime in Syria after a brutal 13-year civil war.
• Once again, the region's power dynamics have been dramatically reshaped.
• And there are risks and opportunities for the US.

In a lightning two-week campaign that shocked the world, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group deposed Bashar Assad, the longtime ruler of Syria.

President Joe Biden cautiously welcomed Assad's removal on Sunday, calling it a "moment of historic opportunity."

With Assad gone, there is a lot at stake for the US, and analysts warn that it must work carefully to further its goals in the region, and avoid the country collapsing into chaos.

Burcu Ozcelik a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the UK's Royal United Services Institute think tank, said Assad's defeat presents the US with an opportunity to further its longtime goal of denting Iranian regional power.

"With the overthrow of Assad, Iran has been dealt a strategic blow, meeting overarching US objectives to diminish and dismantle Iran's so-called axis of resistance," she said.

But Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding, said that since the Arab Spring of 2011, the US has had no diplomatic relations with Syria, and its role in the country in recent years has largely been limited to defeating ISIS.

This means it is still figuring out how to handle the situation.

"All of a sudden, I think they're dusting down documents," he said of the US.

A divided country

When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, it quickly became a brutal struggle for power between rebel militias, government forces, and their powerful foreign backers, including the US, Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

The US provided training and support for some rebel groups, notably Kurdish militias and moderate groups, but stopped short of direct involvement in the conflict.

When Islamic State militia seized swaths of northeastern Syria in 2014, and used it as a base for terror attacks in the West, the US led an international campaign to destroy the group.

But it's played a largely limited role in the country since, and has around 900 troops in the northeast, whose task is to quash IS operations and defend the US' Kurdish allies.

This could limit its ability to play a larger role now.

Developing ties

Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told BI that the US will likely limit its role to a "low-level campaign" fighting ISIS until a new authority is in place in Syria.

One key goal for the US will be to help restore order, defend its allies, and prevent another brutal power struggle among rival militias and religious groups that could spill over into neighboring countries.

According to Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, the end of Assad's rule has led to a "significant security vacuum" that extremist groups could exploit to regroup and expand.

Against that backdrop, the "caretaker government may struggle to deliver basic services," worsening the already dire humanitarian situation, he said.

On top of that, he said the US will likely have to contend with Iran and Russia as they seek to rebuild influence. Both countries will likely act "swiftly" to strike favorable deals with emerging power brokers in Syria, he said.

"Without effective coordination, this could spiral into another civil war."

Iran's power damaged

For years, Iran helped prop up the Assad regime, providing vital economic and military support during the civil war.

With Assad gone, Iran's "Axis of resistance" of states and militias whose mission is to eradicate US regional influence and destroy Israel looks much weaker, according to the Royal United Services Institute's Ozcelik.

She added: "As the dust settles, Iran will seek to carve out a reformed role for itself in a post-Assad Syria in the months and years to come, but for now, Tehran is weakened in its foreign policy adventurism and reputation in the Middle East."

Russia has also suffered a defeat with the overthrow of Assad.

Russian forces played a key role in rolling back advances by rebels when Russia entered the conflict in 2015. According to reports, Assad and his family have taken refuge in Moscow.

With Assad gone, Russia may have lost access to strategically vital military bases in Syria.

Who will take over?

Speculation is swirling on who will take power in the vacuum left by Assad's deposal.

Among the key contenders is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia that played a central role in defeating Assad, and who fought alongside an Al Qaeda affiliate during the US occupation of Iraq.

The HTS — a militant group designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the United Nations — has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.

But the group's roots as an affiliate of the terrorist group al Qaeda will likely be of concern in Washington, which has a $10 million bounty on the head of al-Jolani that US officials are now reportedly discussing removing.

"The terrorist designation of HTS and al-Jolani's own violent legacy in Iraq against American troops makes him far from an ideal partner for peace from the perspective of Western policymakers," said Ozcelik.

In a post on Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump said the US should stay out of the conflict.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, an international organization formed to combat the threat from extremist ideologies, said the main US concerns revolve around whether the HTS would seek stable governance, or continued insurgency.

"Some aspects of their rule in Idlib have been exclusionary and tyrannical," he said, "yet they claim to have cut ties with Al-Qaeda and to embrace diversity (Christians, Kurds, etc.) as part of Syria's identity."

Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Kent, meanwhile, said he struggles to see how Washington could work with al-Jolani directly unless he completely abandons his jihadist rhetoric and animosity toward Israel.

"Jolani is associated with al Qaeda and throughout much of his 'career' has expressed staunch anti-American and anti-Western views," he said.

However, he said another risk is that Syria breaks into territories controlled by competing militias and warlords, which he said would turn Syria into a potential base for terrorist activities.

From a US perspective, that would arguably be far worse.

• Russia is firing 1.5x more shells than Ukraine, Western officials said, down from 10x earlier this year.
• While its artillery advantage is shrinking, glide bombs are compensating, officials told Sky News.
• Russian advances on the front lines have come at a terrible cost, they said.

Russia's artillery advantage over Ukraine is shrinking fast.

Russia's advantage is now down to 1.5 rounds for every shell Ukraine fires back, Sky News reported, citing Western officials. Previous Ukrainian estimates put its artillery advantage at 10 to 1 earlier this year, and as high as 15 to 1 in the early months of its full-scale invasion in 2022.

The unnamed Western officials said a "wide variety of factors " were behind the drop, including constraints on Russia's production lines, challenges transferring rounds to the frontline via rail, drone strikes against major Russian and North Korean ammunition depots, and Western ammunition supplies to Ukraine.

But they told the outlet that Russia seems to be compensating by dropping huge amounts of glide bombs on the front lines.

One official said Russia's "massive" increase in glide bomb use was having a "devastating effect."

Since the start of the war, Russia has frequently targeted Ukraine with glide bombs — cheap but highly destructive weapons that are notoriously difficult to intercept.

Warfare and airpower analysts have said that Ukraine's ability to counter these threats is limited, as moving its best air-defense systems closer to the front lines makes them vulnerable to attack.

Until last month, Ukraine was not given permission to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike bases inside Russia, from which many of the attacks originate.

Ukraine has responded by making its own glide bombs, using Western-provided bombs and fitting them to its F-16 fighter jets. It dropped some inside Kursk during its surprise cross-border raid into the region in August.

Ukrainian forces have also targeted Russian aircraft capable of dropping glide bombs, and have used drones to strike military bases storing the weapons.

But the glide bombs have wreaked havoc on Ukraine's infrastructure.

Russia dropped more than 900 glide bombs on Ukraine in just a single week at the end of October and early November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the time.

Russia also continues its incremental advance in Ukraine.

Late last month, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces were advancing at their fastest rate in Ukraine's east since the early months of the conflict.

But this has come at a terrible cost, the Western officials told Sky News, with one comparing Russia's front-line losses to those seen at the Battle of the Somme, one of the largest and bloodiest battles of World War I.

November saw Russia experience a new record for the average number of dead and wounded per day in the war, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, which said in an intelligence update this week that the losses were "likely reflective of the higher tempo of Russian operations" against Ukraine.

It was the third month in a row that Russia suffered record-breaking daily losses, it said.

• NATO is planning to launch a fleet of uncrewed naval ships, a military commander said.
• Pierre Vandier told Defense News they will monitor and protect critical underwater infrastructure.
• Gas pipelines and undersea cables have been damaged in recent years, with some suspecting sabotage.

NATO is planning to roll out a fleet of uncrewed naval ships to protect critical underwater infrastructure.

Adm. Pierre Vandier, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, shared the development with Defense News on Tuesday.

He told the outlet his team was in the early stages of establishing the drone fleet, but aimed to launch it before a NATO summit next June.

Vandier compared the concept to police CCTV cameras that are mounted on streetlights in high-crime areas to capture evidence of criminal activity.

"The technology is there to make this streetlighting with USVs," he said, using the acronym for uncrewed surface vessels.

Vandier added that the goal was that "NATO can see and monitor its environment daily," especially across the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.

The development comes after several incidents of critical underwater infrastructure being damaged or severed over the last three years, with Russia sometimes suspected of being behind it.

In September 2022, a series of underwater explosions in the Baltic Sea rendered two Nord Stream gas pipelines, designed to transport gas from Russia to Germany, inoperable.

Danish, Swedish, and German authorities launched investigations and concluded that the incident was an act of sabotage. Denmark and Sweden closed their investigations due to a lack of evidence or jurisdiction, while Germany is continuing its probe and says it has identified two suspects.

Last month, two undersea fiber-optic communication cables were also damaged in the Baltic Sea, in a suspected act of sabotage.

The cables included a 135-mile internet link between Lithuania and Sweden's Gotland Island, and a 730-mile cable carrying data between Germany and Finland.

A NATO official told Business Insider in September that threats to subsea infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines and data cables, had increased since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

NATO has since taken steps to strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure and prepare for any disruptions.

It created a NATO-EU task force on the resilience of critical infrastructure in January 2023, established an infrastructure coordination cell in February 2023 to map vulnerabilities, and set up the Maritime Center for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure this May.

NATO is also "stepping up patrols," Commander Arlo Abrahamson, a spokesperson for NATO's Allied Maritime Command, told Reuters this month.

Regarding the drone fleet, Vandier didn't specify the types of USVs or their overall number, but said that the US is already using a similar concept.

The US Navy established Task Group 59.1 in January to test and deploy uncrewed systems to improve maritime security in the Middle East.

"So somehow it's not very risky," Vandier said, adding that "everything is known and sold, so it is much more a matter of adoption than technology."

NATO's Allied Command Transformation's Public Affairs Office didn't respond to a request for comment.