• A report concludes that human error caused the deadly collision at Tokyo's Haneda Airport in January.
• The pilot of the Japan Coast Guard plane misinterpreted air traffic control instructions.
• Limited visibility and air traffic control oversight were additional factors in the collision.

A report released Wednesday from the Japan Transport Safety Board concluded that human error was the primary cause of a deadly collision at Tokyo's Haneda Airport.

The incident occurred on January 2, 2024, when a Japan Airlines (JAL) passenger plane arriving from New Chitose Airport in Sapporo barreled into a Japan Coast Guard plane waiting on the runway.

According to the report, the Coast Guard pilot mistakenly believed he had clearance to enter the runway. The air traffic controller told the coast guard plane that it was "No. 1," meaning it was first in line to take off and meant to stop and wait at a holding point. The pilot misinterpreted the instruction, believing it to be permission to enter the runway for takeoff.

In the final moments before the collision, the Coast Guard pilot ordered his co-pilot to go through a checklist that is typically performed once final takeoff clearance has been granted. The pilot, who survived, told investigators he thought he heard "cleared for takeoff" from the control tower.

The report noted that the pilot said he was in a hurry, which could have contributed to the misinterpretation. The Coast Guard plane was traveling to the city of Niigata to deliver emergency supplies after recent earthquakes on Japan's west coast, and the pilot said he was worried about his crew getting home late from the mission.

The report said that there were other contributing factors to the collision: Air traffic control failed to realize that the Coast Guard plane had entered the runway, despite the runway occupancy alert, and the JAL plane didn't see the other aircraft as it was descending due to limited visibility. The accident occurred around 5:47 p.m., after sunset.

Five of the six people aboard the Coast Guard aircraft died. The pilot survived but was seriously injured.

All 379 passengers and crew on the passenger plane escaped just before the jet erupted into flames.

• My mom made the holidays special.
• The first Christmas without her in 2018 I basically turned into The Grinch.
• I re-found joy in the holidays while also grieving my loss.

My mother had a penchant for making things special.

She knew how to grab joy where she could. She decorated our home for every holiday, donning earrings and sweaters that matched the occasion.

On Christmas, she'd watch with joy while we opened her thoughtful gifts and ate our favorite holiday dishes. I don't remember a lot about the first Christmas without her in 2018. But for the next few years, like The Grinch, I wanted Christmas gone. If I'd had energy that wasn't solely dedicated to staying upright amidst my grief, I might have even taken down a Christmas tree or two in the night.

Nothing could compare to what my mom did

At 20-years-old, I didn't know how to make things special myself. I wasn't really interested in trying, either, or welcoming anyone else's efforts.

Nothing could compare to the holiday scene she'd set. No one else could make the food, decorate the house, or wrap the presents right.

I couldn't accept this truth: that everything would change. So I put a wall up between Christmas and I, white-knuckling my way through December. I didn't want to watch holiday movies or listen to holiday music. I wanted to dismiss it as any other insignificant day.

I'd get together with my family and try to pretend I was happy to be there, but I felt guilty for pretending and resentful of having to. Yet I didn't think not pretending was an option.

The thing about grief, though, is that with each year, the tide rose, washed away more grit, and left me softer.

I had to find beauty in things again

From the spring of 2019 through the spring of 2020, I spent a year living in Denver. I needed to change my surroundings — and make a change that was in my control — to teach my brain that there could be beauty in newness. I needed to learn what the newness would make of me.

When I returned to Michigan at the start of the pandemic, I returned as someone who had made new memories in a new place. It helped me accept that things could look different and still be good. The holidays could still be special if I wanted them to be.

During the Christmas of 2020, my sister and her family had COVID-19, so I stood outside their window in the snow for 15 minutes before going back to my apartment alone. I noticed, with sad poignancy, how much I wanted to be inside with her, my brother-in-law, my nephews, and my dad.

In 2021, I met my now wife, and I had the delicious instinct to make things special together. To create our own traditions. She prioritizes fun, and it rubbed off on me. I came to love taking part in her family's traditions, too. It became clear that there was so much celebration to go around, no matter what it looked like.

I look forward to the holidays now

This year will be the seventh Christmas without my mother, and I look forward to the holiday now.

My wife and I put up our tree on November 3rd. To me, Christmas symbolizes coziness, a focus on joy, an excuse for good food and extra sugar and sitting around a table with people I love.

While there are traditions, new and old, that I cherish, it's less about the specifics and more about the feeling. And, grief is a part of that feeling. It's just not such a sharp ache anymore — more like a familiar smell that reminds me of a warm and nostalgic childhood memory.

Holiday grief (and any grief, for that matter) isn't a thing to be conquered and moved on from, but a thing to accept and learn how to live alongside. In those early years, much of my strife came from wishing I could prevent change and control my feelings. When I don't set rigid expectations of myself, and instead let the tide wash over and soften me, that softness allows space for grief and joy.

I've learned how to appreciate specialness any way it comes and grab joy where I can — even if it means putting the Christmas tree up before Thanksgiving.

• US home sales just ended a 39-month year-over-year decline, signaling the end of the bear market, NDR said.
• Affordability issues, driven by high mortgage rates, drove the 3-year decline in home sales activity.
• Investors could take advantage of the setup by buying the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF, NDR said.

The bear market in US home sales is finally over, according to a recent note from Ned Davis Research.

The firm highlighted that total single-family home sales finally turned positive year-over-year after 39 months of consecutive declines.

The 39-month decline in home sales was only outdone by the 43-month decline during the housing bubble from 2005 through 2009.

"But the recent affordability-driven pandemic bear could not be more different than the credit-driven housing bubble bear," Pat Tschosik, a strategist at Ned Davis Research, said.

The main difference between the two notable declines in home sales is affordability.

Whereas the affordability index rose 53 points from 2005 through 2009, it plunged 39 points from 2021 through 2024, driven by high mortgage rates and ever-rising home prices.

"Homeowners, locked into low rates and unwilling to move, added to low supply and higher prices," Tschosik said.

Additionally, the stocks of homebuilders outperformed over the past three years, compared to them underperforming during the 2005 through 2009 stretch.

The recent rebound in home sales activity suggests to Tschosik that the housing market should thaw in 2025, enabling a rebound in durable and home improvement spending.

For investors, that means the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF could be a worthy addition to portfolios for next year. The ticker symbol is "ITB."

"We are watching ITB for an upgrade. If inflation fears are overblown, the recent ITB correction could be a great buying opportunity," Tschosik said.

The ETF has declined by more than 15% since fears of a rebound in inflation gripped the market in late November.

The top holdings within the Home Construction ETF include home builders D.R. Horton, Lennar Corp, NVR, and Pulte Group, as well as home-improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe's.

• TikTok could be banned come January, but what are the other fascinating creator-economy stories?
• BI's media team rounded up the most intriguing stories for the year ahead.
• Our picks ranged from a battle between Spotify and YouTube to what will happen in "IRL social."

There are many fascinating stories popping up in the creator economy every day. So, which ones have really caught the eye of Business Insider's team of reporters and editors?

We're all closely tracking whether TikTok will be banned in the US in January. But that's not the only story that could shake up the industry.

As we head into 2025, BI's media team rounded up the creator-economy storylines we are most excited to dig into next year.

Dan's storyline to watch: Influencers look to become QVC-style live shopping hosts

Live shopping has really begun to catch on in the US. Next year, I'm watching to see if top influencers embrace live selling and become QVC-style hosts — or if its momentum fades.

US creators have always hawked goods on behalf of brands, but live selling hasn't been a popular approach. It makes sense, as it's much easier for a creator to make a quick sponsored post than to film a 2-hour live sellathon.

TikTok Shop sought to popularize live selling in the US by working with outside partners to train live-selling creators and aggressively promoting the practice. I expect that will continue next year (if TikTok isn't banned), alongside efforts to drive up livestreams among e-commerce competitors like Amazon, Whatnot, and TalkShopLive.

But will creators whose content has nothing to do with e-commerce choose to try out live selling in 2025? Will live shopping replace static brand deals as the predominant way US creators make money, as it has in other regions like Asia? We'll be watching.

-Dan Whateley, senior reporter

Amanda's storyline to watch: Spotify and YouTube battle over video podcasting

Creators are launching their own talk shows in the form of video podcasts.

As this growing trend of serialized long-form content takes over screen times, two tech giants — Spotify and YouTube — will continue to compete to be the best platform.

YouTube is already a strong leader in the creator economy and a go-to creator platform. Spotify has also had a good year, reporting increased profitability in its Q3 earnings.

As video podcasts rise in popularity, these two platforms will have to convince both creators and viewers why they're the best place to earn money, engage with fans, and reach new audiences.

The race has already begun. YouTube took a stand by releasing a suite of tools and features that creators can't get on other podcast platforms — including the ability to go live, respond to comments, and earn revenue from donations.

Meanwhile, Spotify invested heavily in video in 2024, developing its own tools and more ways to pay creators for video podcasts through subscription earnings and ad revenue.

So, how will these platforms compete in 2025, and who will ultimately win in the video podcast race?

-Amanda Perelli, senior reporter

Sydney's storyline to watch: The future of IRL social apps

Social-media platforms are great for entertainment ... but for making new friends and maintaining IRL relationships? Less so.

However, a wave of startups that have either launched or expanded in 2024 plans to fill that gap. From in-person dinners offered by apps (like 222 or Timeleft) to event platforms (like Partiful or Posh), some startup founders are finding product-market-fit amid a loneliness epidemic. The trend extends beyond mobile apps, too, with in-person clubs or groups growing in popularity, like reading groups or running clubs.

While some of these startups are already raising capital and dabbling with monetization, will these solutions to loneliness stick around in 2024? And if they do stick, who will be category winners and what will success be defined by?

-Sydney Bradley, senior reporter

Nathan's storyline to watch: Creators on TV

The walls between the TV and the creator worlds are being torn down brick by brick, particularly by YouTube.

In November, as it has been for a while, YouTube was the top streaming service on TVs in the US, coming in at 10.8% of viewing compared to Netflix's 7.7%, per Nielsen.

With the lines blurring, will we see more streamers and even traditional TV networks look to creator-style content, as ESPN has done with Pat McAfee?

Creator TV shows have had a muddled history, but I'd argue that their struggles often came from networks trying to parachute an influencer into a traditional "TV" format. What about meeting them halfway?

On that point, it's been interesting to see the convergence of podcasts and video. YouTube (hello again) is the top podcasting platform in the US, ahead of Spotify (which is also looking to beef up video) and Apple Podcasts.

What's stopping the likes of Netflix, or even CNN, from licensing podcasts as long as they get the video quality up to snuff? CNN+ wanted to give Scott Galloway a show once upon a time. Maybe they should just put one of his hit podcasts on the air. The cable TV business is in freefall. It's time to get creative.

-Nathan McAlone, deputy editor

• Mike Jeffries, the former CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch, likely has dementia, his lawyers say.
• Jeffries stands accused in an international sex-trafficking case.
• The illness means Jeffries won't be able to contribute to his own defense, his lawyers say.

Ex-Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries likely has dementia and possible Alzheimer's disease, casting doubt on his ability to stand trial in a sex-trafficking case, his lawyers have said.

According to court papers filed Monday and seen by Business Insider, a neuropsychologist has assessed that "the combination of Mr. Jeffries' cognitive impairments" means that he would be unable to contribute to his own defense.

Jeffries, 80, along with his partner Matthew Smith and a third man, were arrested in October on federal sex-trafficking charges.

Earlier this month, lawyers for Jeffries filed a motion to determine his competency to stand trial.

The neuropsychologist found "a significant neurological deficit" after examining him in October last year and said her "initial diagnostic impressions" were consistent with dementia, the latest filing states.

Follow-up tests this year gave further "diagnostic impressions" of dementia and "probable" late-onset Alzheimer's, it says.

A diagnostic impression is a preliminary assessment of a patient rather than a final diagnosis.

"The Michael Jeffries who presented himself did not even come close to resembling a Master's degree-educated individual," the filing said.

The issues include "impaired memory, diminished attention, processing speed slowness, and ease of confusion," it continued.

The doctor has deemed his disease to be "irreversible" and said it will worsen over time, the filing said.

A so-called competency hearing has been scheduled for June next year, the BBC reported.

Jeffries, who left Abercrombie & Fitch in 2014, has pleaded not guilty to the sex trafficking charges, as have Smith and the third accused man.

Prosecutors say that they ran an international sex trafficking and prostitution business, coercing vulnerable men connected to the company into taking part in "sex events."

Between about 2008 to 2015, the accused men used the "so-called casting couch system" in their scheme, Breon Peace, the US attorney for the Eastern District of New York, alleged in a news conference announcing the charges in October.

The indictment states that the men used Jeffries' power and wealth "to run a business that was dedicated to fulfilling their sexual desires and ensuring that their international sex trafficking and prostitution business was kept secret, thereby maintaining Jeffries' powerful reputation."

His arrest came after a high-profile BBC investigation cited a number of men who said they were exploited or abused as part of the events Jeffries is accused of.

Jeffries was hired as CEO in 1990, ushering in a period in which the brand relied heavily on sex appeal to sell its preppy outfits. Huge popularity came alongside a 2003 class-action lawsuit that alleged racialized and looks-based discrimination against staff and prospective employees, which was settled in 2004 without admission of wrongdoing.

• BNY CEO Robin Vince said the bank is currently in a "recharge period" until 2025.
• Employees at the finance giant are encouraged to focus on "core business activities." 
• The move is part of a larger push by the bank to provide mental health support to its workers.

The CEO of Bank of New York Mellon Corp. says it's OK to be more laid back at work during the last weeks of the year.

Robin Vince, who also serves as president of BNY, announced Monday that the bank is bringing back its end-of-year "recharge" period for its employees.

Beginning December 23, a spokesperson told Business Insider that BNY employees are encouraged to narrow their focus to client and core business activities, postponing more routine items until the New Year.

Non-essential activities, like internal meetings, work that isn't time-sensitive, and in-office requirements, will be paused until January 3, they told BI.

In a LinkedIn post, Vance said he's "missing the free Starbucks at our global HQ, but it's worth it to be able to spend more time with my family, all home together, while taking a break from the more routine work to really focus on what matters for clients and driving our company forward these next two weeks."

Vince told Fortune in June that BNY asks employees to be in the office "more days than you're not." BNY first introduced its two-week recharge in December 2023 to allow employees more time to focus on family than non-urgent work tasks.

It's part of a larger push by the bank to improve compensation and benefits for its employees. BNY announced Thursday that it'd increase the minimum hourly wage for US employees from $22.50 to $25, starting March 2025.

This year the company also partnered with Spring Health to bring more mental health services to employees and their families.

"We want talent to feel appropriately compensated and enjoy an industry-leading employee experience — and benefits are a part of that strategy," said Shannon Hobbs, chief people officer at BNY.

• Lyft sued San Francisco, saying it was unfairly charged $100 million in taxes from 2019 to 2023.
• Lyft argues the city's tax formula unfairly includes passenger payments as revenue.
• The lawsuit highlights global gig-economy debates over worker classification.

Lyft has accused the city of San Francisco in a lawsuit of overcharging it $100 million in taxes over five years, arguing that the city used a calculation that doesn't reflect the ride-hailing firm's business model.

The lawsuit, filed at the California Superior Court in San Francisco, says the city calculated Lyft's 2019 to 2023 taxes based on the total amount passengers paid for rides. But Lyft says it makes money from what drivers pay to Lyft, not what passengers pay to the drivers. Drivers make at least 70% of what the passenger pays, according to Lyft's website.

Lyft considers drivers as customers who use its service and not employees, the company said in the state court complaint. The city's formula is "distortive and will grossly overstate Lyft's gross receipts attributable to Lyft's business activities in the city," the filing says.

The filing says the US Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't consider driver's fees as part of Lyft's revenue. Driver fees are also not recognized as income for income-tax purposes on a state or federal level. Lyft is seeking a refund for the amount it overpaid.

Lyft and the San Francisco City Attorney's representatives didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

"Lyft doesn't take operating in San Francisco for granted and we love serving both riders and drivers in our hometown city," the company said in a statement to Bloomberg on Wednesday. "But, we believe the city is incorrect with how it calculated our gross receipts tax for the years 2019-2023."

The complaint is another example of ride-hailing and quick-delivery platforms such as Lyft, Uber, and DoorDash making it clear that drivers on their US platforms are gig workers, not employees. Having drivers on a payroll would mean paying employment benefits such as vacation and overtime pay, minimum-wage protection, and health insurance.

Last year, gig-economy companies scored a big win after a California appeals court upheld a law that classified gig workers as independent contractors, not employees. But that argument hasn't always worked out for these companies in other markets: In 2021, the UK ruled that Uber drivers must be treated as company employees and not independent workers after a five-year legal battle.

• Apple is exploring new headsets and smart-home devices to expand its lineup.
• Its plans don't always work out; it scrapped a car project and faces weak demand for the Vision Pro.
• Apple's future profits depend on the success of devices other than the iPhone.

Apple's possible future product lineup suggests the giant is entering a new era.

Many devices are reportedly in the works at the tech giant, and many of them are very different from its golden child, the iPhone. Apple followers including the Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman and the Taiwan-based supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo have said it's exploring new headsets, smart-home devices, and more.

The tech industry has long speculated about Apple's next big thing. The answer may lie in the slate that people have been reporting on for the past several months.

Creating a hit product isn't easy. The company in February scrapped plans for a car, and its $3,500 Vision Pro has gotten mixed reviews in the months since its release. On November 10, Gurman said Apple was focusing on smaller wins that could generate revenue on the same level as its iPads or wearable tech.

That requires Apple to tiptoe into new territory where competitors may already be making strides.

Bloomberg, also in November, reported on a wall-mounted smart-home tablet in Apple's production lineup that could operate home appliances, use Apple Intelligence, and access Apple apps.

The report said the project, code-named J490, could come as early as March, a month before new Apple Intelligence features are expected to roll out.

Though smart-home tech isn't a cash cow for Big Tech, another futuristic smart-home device is said to be on Apple's radar: a tabletop robot with an iPad-like display and a robotic arm.

Analysts from Morningstar, Deepwater Asset Management, and EMARKETER were skeptical about the device's profitability — or the probability of its existence — when Business Insider asked them about it in August.

Apple is also reportedly developing a smart lock and doorbell system, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. The device would allow a person to open their home's door by scanning their face, the report said. It's unclear whether the doorbell system would work with existing third-party locks or if the company would partner with a lock maker.

The technology could certainly introduce competition to Amazon's Ring and Google Nest. However, the report said it's unlikely the product would launch until the end of 2025 at the earliest.

Meanwhile, Kuo, known for his often accurate Apple product predictions, said in early November that the tech giant had delayed production of a cheaper Vision Pro to "beyond 2027" and would move ahead with a Vision Pro with its M5 processor and Apple Intelligence for 2025.

In the wearables category, Apple is said to be exploring AR glasses — perhaps inspired by the prototype Orion glasses Meta showed off in September — though they're far from production stages. The Morningstar analyst William Kerwin previously suggested that smart glasses are likely Apple's ultimate eyewear goal.

CEO Tim Cook, who's been in the role for 13 years, is guiding the company into a new future. The next line of products Apple launches could solidify his legacy.

• Paul Ollinger was Facebook's vice president of sales before he left the company.
• He grew up middle class with a scarcity mindset, he said.
• Today, he wants to teach his own kids about priorities and gratitude.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Paul Ollinger, author of "Reasonably Happy: The Skeptics Guide to Achievable Contentment." It has been edited for length and clarity.

I grew up one of six kids in Atlanta. When I was around 11, my dad was taking me to get my first cavity filled. I was super nervous, but my dad, it turns out, was thinking about money. As we walked in, he said, "Don't get the novocaine. It's $20."

That anecdote sums up everything about finances in my childhood home. My father worked for the power company, so he always had a job, but he was never rich. I had everything I needed, but scarcity was the subtext of our economic reality.

That's very different from how my own kids, who are 13 and 15, are being raised. I was one of the first 250 employees at Facebook. I left the company about 13 years ago, but due to good pay and stock options, I'll likely never need to work again as long as I make smart choices.

My son asked if we were hiring a private chef

That means my kids are growing up in a very different financial reality. When my son was 7, he came home from one of his even richer friend's house. He said, "When are we going to hire a chef?"

The reaction in my head is one I can't repeat here. I wanted to yell, "A chef? The only chef I grew up with was Chef Boyardee!" But I realized my son only knew what he sees.

I joked about sending my kids to middle-class camp at Grandpa's, where they had to face horrors like having a fan instead of air conditioning. I approach the difference between my upbringing and theirs with humor, but the truth is no one imagines raising kids in an economic situation that's so vastly different from how they were raised.

I want my kids to learn to prioritize financial decisions

One book that's helped me greatly is "The Opposite of Spoiled" by Ron Lieber. He talks about the importance of giving kids allowance, because that allows them to make mistakes with small amounts of money.

My wife and I give the kids a modest monthly allowance. That means we don't have to talk with them about money every day, and they weigh up whether they really want something, like a new soccer ball.

It's important to me that the kids know that money isn't in endless supply. If they buy X, they might not have enough money to buy Y. Although I have substantial wealth, I still prioritize my financial decisions.

For example, I could fly private, but that would require me to work in a traditional job to have more income coming in. Yet, it's more important to me to be able to do the type of work I enjoy, comedy, which happens to pay less. I value professional flexibility more than the status of flying private or the joys of getting to skip TSA, so I prioritize that.

Financial security has let me chase my dream

I've loved comedy since I first got onstage at Dartmouth College during grad school. My parents paid for college, but I had $80,000 in student loans for graduate school back in 1997. That financial reality meant that I had to take a traditional job in the tech world rather than chase my dream of being a comedian.

After working in tech for a few years and paying off my student loans, I quit to pursue comedy full time for two years. My standard of living was still good because I had a lot saved. But when I met my wife and knew we wanted kids, I returned to the tech world because I wanted more financial security than life as a standup comedian could give me.

Working at Facebook ended up being a bigger home run than I could have ever imagined. I remember saying to my wife, "This might be as big as MySpace one day." I couldn't even imagine how big Facebook would become or the changes it would bring to my life.

Now that I spend time writing jokes about my financial situation and talking about money on my podcast, I've realized that happiness comes from making a choice to be grateful, not from a number in your accounts.

• My mom and I have always been close.
• However, I didn't realize how much I still needed her until I had my own kids.
• Becoming a mother helped me understand her unconditional love for me.

I've always loved my mom dearly, but after I had kids, I found I felt even closer to her. I never thought that having a baby would change my relationship with my own mother, but it did.

Growing up, my mom was the warm, fun, cuddly sort of mom who was always heavily interested in us four kids. We always knew we were loved fiercely and unconditionally.

I vividly recall lying in bed as a child, waiting for her to come and say goodnight. She would appear at my bedside and smother me in hundreds of kisses while I giggled and said, "Stop, Momma."

When I was little, life was always a great adventure with my mom. There were spontaneous trips to the drive-in movies. Fun family barbecues and mud flights at the local lake.

I didn't realize how much I still needed my mom

In my 20s, I wanted to stretch my wings, so I moved overseas from Australia to Canada, and then to London. I didn't see my mom for several years, and while I missed her, I was busy doing my own thing and seeing the world.

When I returned to Australia at 29 and had my first child at age 30, she offered to come and help. I was living in Melbourne then, so she flew down from the Gold Coast, where I grew up, and stayed with my husband and me for seven weeks.

I realized during that time just how much I still needed her. Navigating parenthood for the first time really does rock your world, but having someone to support you who has walked that road before makes a world of difference.

In those first few weeks after our son was born, mom was a powerhouse of energy. She cooked us meals, rocked my son to sleep, and counseled me when I cried about my post-childbirth body.

When I felt completely shattered from sleep deprivation and like I couldn't cope, she would take the baby out for a walk and tell me to catch up on some sleep. On days that I needed cheering up, she'd say, "Get dressed, honey. I'm taking you to lunch."

I remember watching her burping my son over her knee one morning in our little flat, and feeling like I was seeing her through fresh eyes, almost as if for the first time. Suddenly, I felt like I understood her better.

Having my own child helped me understood her unconditional love for me

I could finally relate to the boundless love that comes with becoming a parent. My husband always says my mom is my greatest ally and will defend me to the death, even when I'm clearly in the wrong. Finally, I got it. She loved me unconditionally, just like I loved my son.

I thought about the many sacrifices mom had made for me and my siblings so that we could have a better life. Growing up, she never blew money on herself. She didn't wear name-brand clothes or have the flashiest furniture or cars. But somehow, she and my dad always found money for us kids, whether we needed it for orthodontics, acne treatments, or our many hobbies.

When it was finally time for Mom to head home and I was driving her to the airport, I felt terrified. I didn't know how I would manage without her.

"I don't want you to go," I said, tears streaming down my cheeks as I hugged her goodbye. "It's time, honey. I'm only a phone call away. You'll be OK," she said, and then she was gone.

Mom was right, of course. I was OK in the end. She'd held my hand through one of the most life-changing experiences there is, and she'd helped me find my way. Just as she did when I was a child.

• I was estranged from my mother for 11 years before she died.
• Our relationship always gave me feelings of sadness, but they often intensified over the holidays.
• Seeking therapy and embracing my emotions helped the me find joy amid holiday grief.

Tis' the season for joy, making holiday cookies in the comfort of your cozy kitchen, the smell of pine needles and sipping piping hot cocoa. But for many folks who are estranged from loved ones, including me, it's also the season for something a little less merry: grief.

My mother and I were estranged for eleven years. I say were because she is no longer earthside, but somewhere out in the ether, depending on who you ask. Of course, with that loss comes its own kind of bereavement. But before she died in 2019 after a methamphetamine overdose, our estrangement felt something like an eternal sadness, one that can't be taped over and wrapped with a bow — especially around the holiday season.

The months that mark the end of the year, a supposed-to-be-happy shift into a new year are, perhaps, the hardest months when you're estranged from a loved one, a friend or for many people, their entire family. For me, that was certainly the case. My mother, the person we all are connected to deeply in ways we can't always understand, wasn't around. She always loved Christmas time, but Halloween was her favorite, and as our eleven-year estrangement went on, I found myself a little melancholy as the spooky season approached. It went well into December, too.

We missed out on the wrapping of presents together, the jaunt to go look at the holiday lights or even watch silly movies about elves and St. Nick and those Hallmark movies she loved. And with every missed holiday together, it marked something we could never get back. Time. Memories. Joy. Sorrow. Love. This came and went every year.

Finding a way to cope

Amid our estrangement, around year three, I decided to find ways to cope with the sadness. I didn't want to stay stuck in this loop. After all, I wanted to enjoy the holidays, too. We all deserve that. So I set out to do what I knew would help me: I got a therapist booked out, every year, to talk to before the holiday season kicked in. Even if I didn't keep the sessions throughout the months, I found that having someone (a trained professional) to make a plan with — like what to do when I feel depression coming on or what I could do to help myself if I got angry messages from my mother — was a way to protect myself.

I always knew that, around the holidays, each of our feelings would be exacerbated. I'd feel the call to continue to protect myself, and she, a struggling addict, would feel the call to reach out to me and reconnect. I'd feel sad to not be able to hug her, and she'd, presumably, feel sad she couldn't hug me, too.

I used to imagine her sitting in her home that I'd never seen or been invited to before, and I'd wonder if she thought about me, or what we'd do if we were together. Over the years, I found that, instead of pushing these thoughts and feelings away, embracing them actually made things easier. We should feel all of our things, and even if they're hard, that is the reality of many folks who are estranged.

Living a joyful life

Making the decision to get professional help, and let myself notice and acknowledge how I felt, gave me permission to live in the duality: I could have complicated emotions and still live my joyful life. Of course, it also helped to confide in trusted friends, indulge in my Granny's Christmas cookies, head to the three-story mall with my little sister to shop for gifts and give myself restful days when I needed them.

Now, even after my mother has passed on, I think the process of grieving her while she was still alive, was somehow, more difficult than grieving her death. That's the thing about estrangement, it forces us to grieve a person who is still living, but who, in some ways, feels dead. Around the holidays, this always leaves me still with a sadness, that I suppose will always be there. But I can continue on.

A few years before my mother's passing, I got a card in the mail a week after Christmas. It was postmarked on December 24th. The address was one of a drug addiction treatment center, where she had checked herself in on Christmas Eve, a time when the holidays must have helped her reevaluate her life. The note simply read, "Merry Christmas, I love you." For the first time, I wholly knew, she felt the hardness of the holidays, too.

• Space junk has filled up so much of Earth's orbit that it's endangering satellites and astronauts.
• The company Kayhan Space issues roughly 1,000 space-collision warnings per day.
• Earth-orbit experts fear debris will cause an "unstoppable chain reaction" that cuts off launches.

So much junk is filling Earth's orbit that collision avoidance has become a busy business.

"We're talking about the dead satellites, the rocket bodies, the fairings, the wrenches, the gloves, and things like that that have been left up in orbit," physicist Thomas Berger said in a press briefing at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington DC on December 11.

Along with those recognizable objects, there are millions of bits of debris in orbit traveling faster than a bullet.

All that stuff is building up and increasing the risk of explosive space collisions, which is dangerous for astronauts and satellites.

Earth's orbit is so crowded with junk now that roughly 1,000 warnings about possible impending collisions go out to satellite operators each day, Berger said.

For example, Araz Feyzi, a co-founder of the orbital data company Kayhan Space, told BI in an email that some of its customer satellites get up to 800 alerts per day from the US Space Force.

Siamak Hesar, the company's other co-founder, later wrote in a SpaceNews editorial that the company tracks "more than 60,000 alerts per week for a constellation of around 100 satellites."

Most of those warnings come from one neighborhood of Earth's orbit, around 550 kilometers (340 miles) in altitude, where SpaceX's Starlink satellites live.

"It's getting difficult for satellite operators to determine which of these warnings is important and which they have to pay attention to," said Berger, who is the executive director of the Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Because trackers can't perfectly predict objects' positions in space, these collision warnings are triggered when objects are expected to pass each other at a close distance. Only a small fraction of warnings actually end in a collision.

When space objects do collide, they eject high-speed debris in multiple directions, creating a new zone of hazardous junk in orbit.

"It could generate a chain reaction, an unstoppable chain reaction of further collisions, ultimately resulting in a completely filled-up space environment," Berger said.

In the worst-case scenario, orbit could become so crowded that there's no safe space for new rocket launches.

That's a situation experts call Kessler syndrome, and "that we hope to prevent," Berger said.

Close calls and near-misses

While rare, major collisions and explosions have happened a few times.

In 2009, an American satellite and Russian satellite crashed together, ending in nearly 2,000 bits of debris large enough to detect — at least 4 inches wide — with thousands more smaller bits.

In 2021, a Chinese satellite and a Russian rocket chunk collided, creating at least 37 pieces of debris large enough for ground systems to track.

And anti-satellite missile tests by Russia, China, and India have blown up dead spacecraft in orbit, sending thousands of chunks flying.

Each of these events created its own field of hazardous debris which still rockets around the planet today with potentially dire consequences.

For example, several times a year, astronauts on the International Space Station get debris alerts and prepare to evacuate if the station is struck. When this happens, spaceships docked to the station will burn their engines to push it out of the way.

Satellite operators often respond to warnings by moving their satellites out of the way. SpaceX told the FCC in July that its satellites had conducted nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in just the first half of the year, Space.com reported.

Unfortunately, not all satellites are maneuverable.

In March, NASA had to sit on its hands and watch as a long-dead Russian spacecraft careened toward the agency's TIMED satellite, which was designed in the 1990s and doesn't have the ability to move on command.

Luckily, the two spacecraft missed each other by 17 meters (56 feet) — not very far by space standards.

"That would've been a hypervelocity impact creating thousands of pieces of debris," Berger said.

Daniel Baker, who directs the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at UC Boulder, urged the US Congress to pass the ORBITS Act. The legislation would require federal agencies like NASA and the FCC to support technologies that can remove junk from orbit.

"I believe that we are watching the tragedy of the commons play out in low-Earth orbit right before our eyes," Baker said in the briefing.

"We have to get serious about this and recognize that unless we do something, we are in imminent danger of making a whole part of our Earth environment unusable," he added.

• United Airlines' share price has more than doubled in 2024, outperforming competitors.
• The airline benefits from its hub airport structure and has been smart with deploying capacity.
• Strong finances and planned share buybacks have also helped.

United Airlines may be Boeing's biggest customer, but the two companies have had wildly different years.

A quality-control crisis and seven-week labor strike have led to layoffs, increased regulatory scrutiny, and — perhaps most problematically — production delays.

And despite massive headwinds across the entire airline industry, United has outperformed most of its peers, with its stock price up 148% in 2024.

Financial analysts and industry consultants say the airline's strong finances, share buybacks, broad network, and a coming fleet refresh are among the reasons it has been doing so well.

That's despite impacts from Boeing delivery delays, which forced United to offer pilots unpaid leave and rethink its flying this year. The airline coped by leasing planes and shrinking its domestic supply.

Clark Johns of Alton Aviation Consultancy told Business Insider that United's advantageous hub structure and hundreds of incoming narrow-body aircraft helped position the airline to better manage Boeing-related headwinds.

The carrier also benefited this year by refocusing on long-haul flying to boost business and revenue.

"Basic economy is still a major revenue stream for them, and they're expanding their premium seating," Johns said. "In some senses, they're kind of firing on all cylinders."

United flies to more overseas cities than any other US carrier

Among the biggest boons for United has been international flying.

Analysts at HSBC raised their price target for United in December to $116 —about 14% above current levels — citing its international network as a key driver.

"Its exposure to the international markets is well above its peers, and the international demand is quite strong," HSBC said, adding that United's 2024 transatlantic winter bookings — typically a slower period — are 30% higher compared to pre-Covid levels.

Johns said United "has done a good job with regards to the timing" of deploying its capacity amid delays to deliveries of new Boeing planes.

He said United had a strong performance in Europe — operating long-haul routes when demand was high but more modestly on domestic routes when overcapacity impacted US airline revenues.

United has also expanded its capacity on flights to Asia. Tokyo's Narita Airport has been a particularly key base for United, and Johns praised the airline as "tactical" in redeploying aircraft there from weaker routes out of its Guam base. In 2025, it plans to further expand in the region.

United's diverse hubs provide a strategic advantage

United benefits hub airport locations that create strong network opportunities across oceans and the Americas.

Large population centers, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington, DC, and Newark, New Jersey, act as strong international gateways.

Johns said these airports help United target high-yielding premium and business traffic.

The airline also feeds passengers through hubs in Chicago, Denver, and Houston, providing good connectivity across the interior US.

In an October report seen by BI, Deutsche Bank analysts said they anticipate 2025 will be a "strong year of regional growth" for the airline's network.

Johns said Delta and American don't have the same vast hub structure and have dominance in fewer places, like Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte for American and Atlanta and Detroit for Delta.

United is revamping its fleet with hundreds of new planes

A fleet renewal plan that includes 270 new Airbus and Boeing narrow-body planes, plus 150 widebody Boeing 787 Dreamliners, is powering United's expansion.

Data from the manufacturers show that as of November 30 this year, United had received 21 Airbus A321neos, 31 Boeing 737 Maxs, and one Dreamliner. The 737 deliveries are less than half of the 71 Max planes United received through November 2023.

As it shifts capacity, United has removed the yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 10 from its future fleet plan. It has 150 units on order.

United also has new planes from rival Airbus to look forward to in the coming years, including its first A321XLR in 2026.

United's SVP of global network planning and alliances, Patrick Quayle, previously told BI the airline plans to replace its aging Boeing 757s with the A321XLR and fly to new destinations, like northern Italy and West Africa.

This influx of narrow-body planes could help United lower costs and make the airline even more competitive.

United's fleet allows for diverse revenue streams, including basic economy and money-making premium cabins; the latter is especially lucrative as corporate travel remains on the rise.

Deutsche Bank analysts said United's adjusted pretax margin of 9.7% "reflects the company's advantage of having revenue diversification with premium customers, basic economy customers, and domestic road warriors."

United's third-quarter premium revenues, including Polaris business class and premium economy, were up 5% year over year.

Basic economy was up by a fifth, signaling United's discounted fare has likely poached some business from budget carriers struggling to maintain customers who prefer more perks when flying.

Share buyback signals strong finances

In its third-quarter earnings, United's adjusted earnings per share of $3.33 beat analysts' estimates. It also announced plans for a $1.5 billion share buyback.

"We intend this buyback to be the beginning of a consistent and disciplined return of capital that is paced by our ability to generate increasing levels of free cash," said CFO Michael Leskinen.

Johns told BI that this was another sign of United's progress toward becoming a dependable "blue-chip" stock as it works to reduce its debt-to-earnings ratio.

"I think that's probably the market broadly seeing the positive aspects in terms of how the airline is performing," he said.

In a recent earnings call, United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline has been confident for the past two years that the industry is evolving to produce higher margins.

Deutsche Bank analysts are also bullish, saying: "We believe the solid earnings momentum will continue into the next two years."

• Andy Palmer, the "godfather of EVs," explains how China took the lead in the electric-car race.
• Palmer got the moniker after developing the Nissan Leaf, the world's first mass-market EV.
• He said Chinese EVs offered "remarkable" value for money and better battery tech than Western rivals.

The man often known as the "godfather of EVs" has a warning for automakers thinking of ditching electric vehicles for hybrids.

Andy Palmer, a former Aston Martin CEO and Nissan exec, told Business Insider that delaying transitioning to EVs in favor of selling hybrids was a "fool's errand" and warned that automakers doing so risked falling even further behind Chinese EV companies.

Palmer's moniker comes from his time as chief operating officer at Nissan.

He led the development of the Nissan Leaf, the world's first mass-market electric car, which has sold more than half a million units since it launched in 2010.

"I wish I could say that it was driven by a motivation to better the world. But actually, it was driven by the Toyota Prius kicking our ass," Palmer told BI.

Rather than copying the success of the hybrid Prius, Palmer said, he pushed Nissan to build a fully electric vehicle, eventually securing the support of the CEO at the time, Carlos Ghosn.

Over a decade later, he's skeptical of automakers — including Aston Martin, the company Palmer ran as CEO from 2014 to 2020 — who have taken the opposite path and turned to hybrids as EV adoption has slowed.

"Hybrids are a road to hell. They are a transition strategy, and the longer you stay on that transition, the less quickly you ramp up into the new world," Palmer said.

"If you just delay transitioning to EVs by diluting it with hybrids then you are more uncompetitive for longer, and you allow the Chinese to continue to develop their market and their leadership. I honestly think it's a fool's errand," he added.

China races ahead

Over the past few years, the auto industry has been shaken by the booming growth of Chinese brands such as BYD, which have conquered their home market with a range of affordable and high-tech EVs and hybrids and are now rapidly expanding abroad.

"The Chinese cars are bloody good. The Chinese vehicles offer remarkable value for money for what they deliver," Palmer said.

"Their battery technology's class-leading, and they've concentrated very much on their software," he said.

Palmer told BI that the success of China's EV industry was down to the country's long-running industrial strategy.

One study found that the Chinese government had spent at least $230 billion on subsidies for EV makers since 2009.

Palmer, who previously served on the board of Dongfeng Motor Company, a joint venture between Nissan and the Chinese state-owned automaker Dongfeng, said he saw firsthand how aggressive China's EV strategy was.

"The edict [from the Chinese government] was to move to new energy vehicles," he said.

"It starts with an industrial strategy. That's the big thing to learn. For the best part of 14 years, we have not had an industrial strategy," Palmer added.

Both the US and Europe have responded to the rise of Chinese automakers by imposing tariffs aimed at protecting their own auto industries, but Palmer said tariffs would only harm Western companies' ability to compete with their Chinese rivals.

"My experience with tariffs is it just makes your indigenous industry lazy. The gap becomes even bigger," he said.

Instead, he argued that automakers should prepare for a "survival of the fittest" battle with Chinese automakers, especially in Europe, where the likes of BYD and Xpeng have ambitious expansion plans.

"I think the Chinese firms will learn from competing in Europe, because that's the toughest market in the world. If they can do that, then they're going to be unbeatable," Palmer said.

Japanese carmakers stumble

The surging growth of China's EV giants has put Palmer's former employer Nissan and its Japanese rivals Toyota and Honda under severe pressure.

Nissan announced it would lay off 9,000 workers in November, while both Toyota and Honda are facing declining sales in China and slumping profits. In December, it was reported that Nissan and Honda were in merger talks.

Palmer said that while Toyota's decision to focus on hybrids paid off initially, it had left it and other Japanese automakers exposed as key markets such as China transition quickly to EVs.

"Toyota took the Japanese industry down a cul-de-sac, which it is going to struggle to recover from," he said.

The former Nissan executive said his old company, meanwhile, had "shot itself in the foot" and squandered a promising lineup of electric vehicles and a 10-year lead in EV tech.

"My last board meeting in July 2014, I was under enormous attack from the bean counters who were saying; these things don't make money, we are going too fast. I managed to win the day in that meeting, but I left the company," Palmer said.

"Nissan finds itself now with a very poor lineup of products and without obvious leadership in EVs, and that's the direct result of poor management," he said.

How to get EVs moving again

The past year has been tough for electric vehicles. While sales are still growing, the pace of adoption has been slower than expected, causing automakers across the globe to roll back investments.

For Palmer, the reason some consumers have proven reluctant to go electric is simple: EVs are too expensive.

"Prices have got to align to those of internal combustion engines. And to make that happen, you've got to be able to offer cars with smaller batteries," Palmer said.

The average price of an electric vehicle in the US in October was $56,902, according to Kelley Blue Book, compared with $48,623 for gas-powered vehicles.

Palmer said selling cheaper vehicles with smaller batteries and less range would require governments to incentivize the rollout of charging networks to alleviate range anxiety.

He added that the West could learn from China's approach to industrial strategy — especially when it comes to batteries, an industry that China dominates.

"If the West wants to catch up, I would advocate copying the Chinese," Palmer said.

"The alternative is everything is Chinese at the moment — even if you were building your own battery cells, you've still got to get all the minerals from China," he said. "The whole supply chain is stuck."

• Russia attacked Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure on Wednesday, causing power outages.
• Zelenskyy called the Christmas Day missile and drone attack "inhumane."
• Mass attacks on Ukraine's energy have been a hallmark of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Russia launched an attack on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure on Christmas Day in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as an "inhumane" move, according to multiple reports.

Zelenskyy said in a Telegram message that more than 70 missiles, including ballistic missiles, and more than 100 attack drones were launched at Ukrainian energy targets.

"Every Russian massive strike takes time to prepare. It is never a spontaneous decision. It is a conscious choice not only of targets, but also of time and date," he said, according to the BBC's translation.

"Today, Putin deliberately chose Christmas for an attack. What could be more inhumane?" he continued.

In 2022, Ukraine's Orthodox Church allowed Christmas to be celebrated on December 25, in what was widely read as a snub to Russia, which largely celebrates on January 7. Much of Ukraine has followed suit since.

Russia claimed responsibility for the strikes, according to state-owned news agency RIA Novosti.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy shared several images of firefighters working to tackle the damage in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Ukraine's forces shot down at least 50 of the missiles and many of the drones, but there were still power outages in several regions as a result of hits, Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine's energy minister, German Galushchenko, also said in a Facebook post that the country's energy industry was under attack on a mass scale, forcing blackouts.

DTEK, Ukraine's largest energy company, called the attack "cynical," saying it had caused serious damage and forced energy systems to cut power to the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kyiv.

The northeastern city of Kharkiv — Ukraine's second largest city — was among the worst hit, according to its mayor, Ihor Terekhov, who said there had been a series of explosions amid massive rocket fire.

He said four people had been injured as of 11 a.m. local time, and a large part of the city was without heating.

Video shared on social media — which Business Insider couldn't independently verify — appeared to show air-raid sirens going off in Kyiv amid reports that people were sheltering in metro stations.

There were also explosions reported in Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, and Ivano-Frankivsk, The Kyiv Independent reported.

In a statement, Russia's Ministry of Defense said it targeted "critical energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex," per the BBC's translation.

"The strike's goal was achieved. All facilities were hit," it added.

Mass attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have been a hallmark of Russia's full-scale invasion. There have been mass strikes throughout the year, and as of November, an estimated two-thirds of the country's electrical generation capacity had been knocked out.

• Russia's economy will be under significant strain next year, economists told Business Insider.
• High inflation, slowing economic growth, energy prices, and sanctions could hurt its war machine.
• One expert told BI that stagnation was similar to the Soviet Union at the beginning of the 1980s.

Russia's economy is likely entering a year of pain in 2025.

Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has restructured its economy to prioritize its war efforts, imposing export bans, tapping its national wealth fund, and strengthening trade with non-Western countries.

But unprecedented defense spending, labor shortages, and Western sanctions have come at a cost, and some believe the country is reaching the limits of its capacity.

Economists told Business Insider that while they don't expect Russia's economy to collapse, they said it would face a tough 2025 if it keeps on fighting in Ukraine.

Persisting inflation

"Russia has set in motion processes that will continue to eat out its economy from within," Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University, told BI.

He said that if the war continues, "it will put a significant strain on the already bleeding Russian budget."

Russia has increasingly boosted its defense spending to sustain its war efforts, from $59 billion in 2022 to $109 billion in 2023, and $126.8 billion set aside in 2025, when defense will make up 32.5% of Russia's federal budget, up from 28.3% this year.

While soaring defense spending has fueled Russia's economy in recent years, it has also contributed to rising inflation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin said could hit 9.5% in 2025.

To rein this in, the country's central bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to 21% in October, a record high, which has eaten into companies' profit margins.

The bank was expected to raise the rate again in December, but held off, though it may need to increase it next year.

"The main question is how high the inflation will be and how the slowing down will materialize," Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told BI.

Putin has acknowledged that inflation is at "a relatively high level." Speaking at an investment forum in Moscow earlier this month, he urged his government and the central bank to curb it.

TsMAKP, a Russian think tank, warned last month that Russia's failure to tame inflation was driving the country toward stagflation, a scenario in which growth is low and inflation high, and which is harder to escape than a recession.

"The overall trend is pretty grim," said Kolyandr. "I would say it's overall stagnation akin to what the Soviet Union had at the beginning of the 1980s."

The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991.

Slowing economic growth

Russia is expected to experience lower-than-expected economic growth in 2025. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF dropped its GDP growth estimate for Russia from 1.5% to 1.3%.

"Overall growth will be quite slow," Iikka Korhonen, the head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, told BI.

However, he said the Kremlin will make sure that military production has enough resources.

But "many sectors will most likely contract," he said.

US sanctions on Gazprombank and other financial institutions in November caused the ruble to plummet, according to The Wall Street Journal, which also said that companies were slashing expansion plans.

It reported that more than 200 shopping centers in Russia are under threat of bankruptcy due to rising debt burdens and almost a third of Russian freight haulers say they fear bankruptcy in 2025.

Russia's largest mobile operator, MTS, also blamed an almost 90% drop in Q3 net profits on costs related to interest payments.

"The elites are fighting for survival, and while they remain loyal to Putin, they are increasingly discontent," Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told the Journal.

In fact, in recent months, Russian CEOs and business leaders have increased their vitriol against interest-rate hikes and Western sanctions.

Sergei Chemezov, CEO of defense conglomerate Roste, told Russian senators in late October that sky-high interest rates were leaving companies struggling to turn a profit.

Oil and gas prices

While Russia's share of oil and gas revenues has fluctuated in recent years, and dropped in 2023, Russia expects it to account for about 27% of the country's total budget revenue in 2025.

"As long as Russia can sell as much crude oil as it is now selling with the current prices, they will have enough tax revenue for the war well into 2025," Korhonen said.

Earlier this month, Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft agreed to a 10-year, $13 billion deal to supply crude oil to India, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal.

However, Center for European Policy Analysis' Kolyandr said he believes Russia's revenue outlook is "over-optimistic," since "global oil prices might be lower than the government thinks."

Traders expect global oil prices to fall from a projected $80 a barrel in 2024 to between $65 and $71 in 2025, due to sluggish demand, production from non-OPEC+ countries, and a shift toward cleaner energies.

While G7 countries have set a $60 price cap on Russian oil since December 2022, Russia has partly evaded the cap by using a shadow fleet, redirecting oil exports to countries like China and India, and inflating ancillary costs to obscure purchase prices.

But the tightening of Western sanctions could further reduce Russia's oil and gas revenues.

Reserves

Russia's economic performance in 2025 will ultimately come down to the availability of resources, said Korhonen.

"There will be a deficit, but it can initially be financed from the National Welfare Fund," he said.

Russia's National Warfare Fund has assets amounting to about $131.1 billion as of October, while the central bank has about $614.4 billion in international reserves.

Kolyandr, meanwhile, said that "whether Russia is going to face any crisis in 2025" would depend on everything that will happen in 2025, including oil prices, sanctions, President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies, and the Russian labor market.

"The Russian economy will continue to fall," said Weatherhead School of Management's Sheremeta, "which will restrict Russia's ability to wage war."

But he added: "Much will depend on the Western support of Ukraine."

• The world's wealthiest people have shuffled their ranks and seen their fortunes surge since 2000.
• Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Larry Ellison, and Steve Ballmer held top-20 spots then and still do.
• Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg didn't rank in the top 20 less than 25 years ago.

Compare the wealthiest people on the planet today to a quarter-century ago, and it's striking to see how the fortunes have grown, and most of the names have changed.

Bill Gates topped Forbes' rundown of the world's richest people in 2000, the earliest list accessible using the Wayback Machine. The Microsoft cofounder's net worth has grown from $60 billion then to $105 billion at Tuesday's close — good for 15th place in the real-time rankings.

Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett, Walmart heir Rob Walton, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, and LVMH founder and CEO Bernard Arnault also made the top 20 then and still do today.

But retaining a top 20 spot has required them to grow dramatically more wealthy since 2000. For example, Ellison's net worth has more than quadrupled from $47 billion to $217 billion.

Buffett's fortune has grown more than five-fold from about $26 billion to $143 billion, despite the investor gifting over half of his Berkshire shares to good causes since 2006.

Walton and Dell's fortunes have more than quintupled in size from roughly $20 billion to well above $100 billion.

Ballmer and Arnault have notched even larger gains, with their net worths growing from about $16 billion and $13 billion each to $128 billion and $168 billion, respectively.

Meanwhile, SoftBank founder and CEO Masayoshi Son's wealth has only grown from about $19 billion to $30 billion, dropping him from eighth place to 59th.

Several other people have fallen out of the top 10. They include Gates' late cofounder, Paul Allen; Theo and Karl Albrecht, the brothers who cofounded supermarket giant Aldi; Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Al Saud of Saudi Arabia; and newspaper tycoon Kenneth Thompson.

On the other hand, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Meta cofounder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alphabet cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang now rank in the top 10.

While a $20 billion fortune would have landed someone firmly in the top 10 in 2000, a net worth of that magnitude barely cracks the top 100 nowadays.

The top 10 wealthiest individuals were worth a combined $275 billion in 2000, or about one-seventh of their $2 trillion in total wealth at Tuesday's close. The 20 richest people were worth $406 billion then, a fraction of the $3 trillion they're worth today.

Musk alone is worth $454 billion today, exceeding the combined wealth of the top 20 in 2000.

The consistency between the two lists shows how companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway, Dell, and Walmart have gained value over the course of decades, enabling their largest shareholders to retain their top 10 spots almost a quarter-century later.

But it also underscores how businesses like Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia have skyrocketed in value and propelled their biggest backers into top 10 positions.

• Denmark plans to invest at least $1.5 billion to enhance Greenland's defense capabilities.
• The announcement follows Donald Trump's renewed interest in purchasing Greenland for strategic reasons.
• Greenland holds strategic value because of its location in the Arctic and its resources.

Denmark's government announced a defense package for Greenland worth at least $1.5 billion after President-elect Donald Trump reiterated that he wanted the US to purchase the Arctic territory.

The Danish defense minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, told a local media outlet that Denmark would invest "a double-digit billion amount" in kroner to buy two new inspection ships, two new long-range drones, and extra sled patrols in Greenland.

"It is ironic that it coincides with the announcement from the United States," Poulsen said, suggesting that the two events aren't necessarily related and that the investment was previously planned.

On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "for purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity." A 2019 report by The Wall Street Journal said that Trump had repeatedly expressed interest in buying Greenland.

Trump's Monday comments followed a separate post suggesting the US could take over the Panama Canal. He made the comments about Greenland in a post announcing the PayPal cofounder Ken Howery as his pick for US ambassador to Denmark.

Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, is between the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and has a population of roughly 56,000. The island is home to the US military's northernmost base and has strategic value because of natural resources and proximity to the Arctic, where Russia and China are already increasing activity. Denmark is a US ally and NATO member.

Greenland's prime minister, Mute Egede, responded to Trump's post on Monday by saying, "We are not for sale and will never be for sale." The Danish prime minister's office echoed Egede's statement, saying Greenland wasn't for sale but open for cooperation.

• Would you answer a late-night text message from a recruiter after a job interview?
• The message is a test to help determine whether someone is a good fit for a job or a culture.
• William Vanderbloemen said that not texting back isn't a dealbreaker, but a fast reply is a plus.

You go to a job interview at 1 p.m.

At about 10 p.m., you get this text: "Hey, Tim. This is Ben. I work at Vanderbloemen. I was out of the office today. I heard you were there. Heard that everyone was really impressed with you. I'm sorry I didn't get to meet you. I would love to connect with you sometime. Hope that can work."

Do you reply? If so, how long does it take you?

Your decision might affect whether you're hired.

The test's creator and occasional proctor is William Vanderbloemen. He runs an executive search firm in Houston. Vanderbloemen's company uses the text-message test after job interviews for certain roles at his own hard-charging firm or for jobs where clients expect workers to be super responsive.

Texting back quickly might up your chance of snagging the job, at least at Vanderbloemen's 45-person firm.

Sounds simple enough. But the text is also a reminder of the always-on pressure that's pushed some workers to ditch hustle culture. Trial by text message joins other offbeat quizzes meant to help determine whether a job candidate should get an offer letter. There's the spouse interview over dinner. And there's the coffee-cup test: A hiring manager shows those who come for interviews where the kitchen is, offers them a coffee, and then rejects those who don't bus their dishes afterward.

The text-message test is also a reminder of how it can be difficult to land a job even as the overall US unemployment rate is low. Yet in areas like tech that have been slow to hire, some workers are left sending out huge numbers of résumés. And when job seekers do get a bite, interviews can drag on for round after round.

Vanderbloemen was quick to note that how you respond — or don't — to an after-hours text from someone saying they're with his firm won't keep you from getting a job. And he said that even responding within 24 hours would put most candidates far ahead of their competition.

"We're just terrible as humans at responding," he said.

But text back within the one-minute response time his sales and marketing teams operate by? "Then we're like, 'Yeah, no, he might be the same kind of crazy that we are,'" Vanderbloemen said. "Is that normal for every job? No. Would it work for every company? No."

The test came about after Vanderbloemen hired some people who seemed promising but then didn't deliver on the company's fast turnaround time for clients, which he said is essential for some roles. That led Vanderbloemen to determine he had to measure for speed — before making a hire — for jobs in areas like sales and marketing.

So, about a decade ago, Vanderbloemen asked one of the people on his team to text someone who'd been great in an interview. The colleague sent the text at about 10:30 p.m., and the candidate responded right away. Bingo.

Vanderbloemen, the founder and CEO of Vanderbloemen Search Group, decided the text-message test could be a good measure of whether a candidate would mesh well with a client with a move-fast culture. He compared it to pulling off a successful organ transplant by finding tissue that matches.

"Oh, you do things the way they do," he said. "Doesn't make it normal. Doesn't make it right. But you guys match each other."

Switching the interview location

Vanderbloemen doesn't rely just on the text-message test. One time, in New York City, he got turned around and realized he didn't have time to make it to the coffee shop where he'd planned to meet a job candidate. So he contacted the man and asked whether they could meet somewhere else. The man responded: "No, I don't mind. I like change."

Vanderbloemen was impressed. Now, he sometimes changes the location of an interview 30 minutes before it's scheduled to take place to see how a candidate responds.

He said it's not something he does all the time. Some jobs don't require that kind of flexibility or speed. Even with the text message, he said, it's often someone at his firm, not him, who might send it. As the boss, he realizes it's more intimidating if it comes from him.

"It's not fair because I'm the guy with the name on the door, and now I am being kind of just abusive," he said.

Setting up some rules

Vanderbloemen, who has a degree in religion and philosophy, said his company has guidelines meant to protect its workers from needing to be on at all hours. After-hours emails should get a response within 24 hours, he said. Evening Slack messages are rare though they should get a response that night "because that's like Defcon 3," he said. "Defcon 2 would be if I text you after hours, I need an answer like now," he added. "And if I call you after hours, pick up."

Vanderbloemen said the firm enforced the rules. It meant he and some colleagues had to quit a group text about "Game of Thrones" on Sunday nights.

He said he's received "some pretty negative feedback" about the text-message test.

"My answer to that is, 'Hey, I'm glad to know you feel that way. I don't think you'd be happy working here,'" Vanderbloemen said.

He said the test still has its place in a world where some workers are trying to avoid being on call all the time.

"For our company, particularly certain teams within our company, it's a direct indicator to us of whether you are dysfunctional like us," he quipped.

An earlier version of this story appeared on October 12, 2023.

• The NYC townhouse where Bob Dylan lived quietly with his kids from the 1980s to 2005 is for sale.
• The enclave, with only 20 homes and a shared garden, remains a favorite haunt of actors and musicians.
• It's just a coincidence that the movie about his life is in theaters now, the listing agent said.

A New York City home where Bob Dylan lived quietly for years is for sale.

The legendary singer-songwriter rented the townhouse on East 49th Street in Manhattan in the 1980s — then loved it so much that he bought it under a business associate's name in 1990 for an undisclosed amount.

In 2005, he sold it to the current owners for $4.45 million; they have put it on the market with an asking price of $7.25 million.

The five-story home is in Turtle Bay Gardens, a landmarked enclave of 20 1860s-built townhouses on East 49th and East 48th whose backyards lead to a shared garden for residents only.

Dylan, one of the best-selling music artists of all time, had young kids at the time and liked the privacy, "Dylan's local fix-it man at the time" told real-estate news site Curbed.

Turtle Bay Gardens has long attracted creative types, including Hollywood and Broadway greats. Previous renters of Dylan's home, at 242 East 49th Street, included Mary Tyler Moore.

Broadway composer Stephen Sondheim called No. 244 home for 60 years until his death in 2021; it sold for $7 million in 2023, according to property records. Katharine Hepburn lived next door, at 244 East 49th Street. Child actor turned fashion designer Mary-Kate Olsen and her ex Olivier Sarkozy owned 226-228 East 49th Street from 2024 to 2022.

The current owners of Dylan's home used it as a pied-à-terre, according to Sotheby's International Realty agent Lisa Larson, who has the listing with her colleague Angela Wu.

"They just weren't coming to New York very often, so they rented it out, and now they've just decided to sell it," Larson told Business Insider.

It hit the market on December 5. The Bob Dylan biopic, "A Complete Unknown," with Timothy Chalamet as Dylan, is released in theaters on Christmas Day, December 25.

Larson said that the timing is a happy accident.

"I didn't even know there was a new Bob Dylan movie," Larson said. "It was totally coincidental, because we were just waiting for the last tenant to move out."

Take a look inside Dylan's former house, which has a mix of old-school features and modern amenities, and the secret garden on which it sits.

A house Bob Dylan lived in from the 1980s to 2005 is on the market for $7.25 million.

Starting in the 1980s, Dylan rented the home from a married couple: screenwriter Garson Kanin and his wife, actor Ruth Gordon.

He started out renting, then liked it so much he bought it.

The home is located in a somewhat hidden micro-neighborhood called Turtle Bay Gardens.

"It's got a pretty esteemed history," Larson said. "It has a lot of playwrights, writers, actors, and musicians who have lived in this enclave of 20 homes."

Owners of the 20 townhouses on East 49th and East 48th Streets can access a residents-only shared garden via their private backyards.

Turtle Bay Gardens was named a historic district by New York City's Landmarks Preservation Commission in 1966. It was built with a fountain modeled after the Villa Medici in Rome.

"It's got this unique feeling of being this special little enclave in the middle of a whole bunch of hustle and bustle and high rises," Larson said.

The current owners bought the home from Dylan for $4.45 million in 2005 and then renovated it.

"They did a more modern kitchen, they redid all the bathrooms — they did a lot of capital improvements," Larson said. "It's got all the conveniences of a modern house, but yet it still retains a lot of its old-world characteristics."

According to Larson, Dylan had installed a lot of mirrors around the townhouse that didn't survive the renovation.

The current owners used the home as a pied-à-terre and visited New York City less than five times a year.

The owners had rented out the townhouse for the last year, Larson said.

The ground floor features a patio and garden that lead to the shared garden.

The parlor level also has a terrace that leads to the lower level.

"It's not super unique to have necessarily a small terrace or a balcony on the parlor floor, but for you to be able to walk out onto it and then walk downstairs to access the garden below is pretty unique and pretty special," Larson said.

A unique feature of the home Dylan owned is the brick staircase from the private patio that leads to the shared garden.

"In my opinion, the backyard is one of the prettiest in all of Turtle Bay Gardens because it has that bi-level aspect to it, and just beautiful brickwork and stonework," Larson said.

The five-bedroom, 5½-bathroom home has around 5,400 square feet of interior space.

The library has a fireplace — one of seven in the home.

The archways throughout the five-story home are original. The elevator, though, was added on after Dylan sold.

Larson said the home is 19 feet wide.

"Some 19-footers have elevators and some don't," she added. "Having an elevator is huge."