American consumers are not feeling the holiday cheer: concerns about what's ahead for the economy shot up as tariffs loom, according to a barometer of consumer confidence released on Monday.

Why it matters: The post-election bump in consumer confidence in November now looks like a blip, at least by one measure.

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• Long-running economic pessimism lives on despite solid economic conditions — a sign the next administration might see consumer moods at odds with economic indicators.

What they're saying: "Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes," says Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, the group that has measured consumer confidence for decades.

By the numbers: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell by 8.1 points this month, reversing the prior two months' gains and remaining at the somewhat depressed level that has prevailed in the past two years.

• December's drop was overwhelmingly a result of more pessimism about income, business and labor market prospects in the months ahead.
• A sub-index that measures consumer expectations fell almost 13 points last month alone, "just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead," the Conference Board said in a release.

The intrigue: It's more likely now than ever before that politics will skew measures of confidence. That is why Republicans' economic outlook surged after the election and Democrats' view soured, with little change in the actual economic backdrop.

• The Conference Board does not report consumer confidence by political party. But the group said consumers mentioned politics more often this month as the key factor affecting how they view the economy.
• Mentions of tariffs, the centerpiece of Trump's agenda, continued to rise. Roughly 45% of consumers expected tariffs to raise the cost of living, while 21% said it would create more jobs.

Between the lines: Worries about the inflationary fallout from potential tariffs has not translated into diminished buying plans for cars, the group said — among the items that could be most impacted by Trump's tariff plans.

• Plus, the average inflation expectation in the year ahead in the survey was steady at 5%, the lowest since March 2020.
• Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with little progress in recent months toward dropping further — the reason why the Federal Reserve does not expect to reduce interest rates in 2025 nearly as much as it did earlier this year.

• Russia's railway industry is in the midst of a big downturn, according to one Russian research firm.
• Investment in Russia's railways is being slashed by nearly a third next year, TASS reported.
• It complicates Russia's trade with China, which has relied partly on rail transport.

One of Russia's key trading channels with China is facing serious snags. That's a result of burdens stemming from Russia's war-driven economy, which have fueled a big slowdown in the nation's rail industry — a vital means of trade between Moscow and Beijing.

Russia's rail industry is in its worst slowdown since the Great Financial Crisis, with the downtrend "still going strong," according to an analysis from the Russian research firm MMI Research. Freight volume transported by Russian Railways, Russia's state-owned rail system, slumped 5% in the first 11 months of 2024 compared with the same period last year, according to MMI data cited by Bloomberg.

The slowdown is driven in part by Russia's need to ship war-related materials, which have worsened supply bottlenecks and slowed the trade of key commodities, like coal and aluminum, the outlet reported.

Investment in Russia's railroads is also being slashed, partly due to high interest rates in the nation, according to a report from the state-owned news agency TASS. Russian Railways said it would earmark just 890 billion rubles, or $8.5 billion, for its investment program next year, a 30% cut from investment in 2024, TASS reported.

The firm is mulling whether it should cut investment by another third through the end of the decade, the Russian outlet Kommersant reported. Russian Railways did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

The changes spell bad news for Russia's trade with China, which has leaned on railway transport amid Western sanctions. Russia poured billions into its railways earlier this year partly to accommodate its increased trade with China.

The changes also speak to the growing costs of Russia's war against Ukraine, which have produced myriad economic problems for Moscow.

Russia's central bank raised interest rates to a record 21% earlier this year in an effort to lower sky-high inflation. The bank kept interest rates level in their policy decision last week, due to concerns about "excessive cooling" in Russia's wartime economy, according to the nation's top central banker.

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• Russia sent a ship to evacuate soldiers from its bases in Syria, per Ukrainian intelligence.
• But it broke down en route in the open sea near Portugal, Ukraine said.
• Russia is trying to secure a deal with Syria's new leadership to keep the bases, per reports.

A ship sent to evacuate Russian troops and equipment from Syria broke down while in the open sea off Portugal, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

In a Telegram post on Monday, Ukraine's main intelligence directorate said that the Sparta cargo ship's engine failed and that the crew was trying to fix the problem while the ship was drifting in the high seas.

Since the fall of Bashar Assad, Syria's longtime ruler, earlier this month, the fate of Russia's two military bases in the country — the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base — has been under threat.

Russia struck a 49-year lease with Assad's government for the bases, which it has used since 2017 to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa.

But Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, overthrew Assad earlier this month, after a rapid two-week campaign.

Last week, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there were "no final decisions" about Russia's bases in Syria but that Moscow is in contact with "representatives of the forces that currently control the situation" in the country.

Earlier this month, Ukraine said the Russian Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships had left Russia and were heading to Tartus to transport military equipment from the Russian base on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

The journeys required the ships to sail along stretches of European coastline to access the Mediterranean.

Russian state media said earlier this month that Syrian rebel forces now controlled Latakia province, where the Russian bases are located.

Images taken in mid-December by Maxar Technologies showed Russian aircraft still present at the base in Hmeimim, but warships no longer stationed at the nearby naval facility in Tartus.

Last week, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia was probably taking this "tentative" stance and removing some assets in case HTS decided to deny Russia a sustained military presence in Syria.

Obeida Arnaout, the spokesman for Syria's new transitional government, told the Associated Press last week that Russia should reconsider its presence and interests in Syria.

"Their interests were linked to the criminal Assad regime," he said.

"They can reconsider and take the initiatives to reach out to the new administration to show that they have no animosity with the Syrian people, and that the era of Assad regime is finally over," he added.

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