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Where the 200,000 federal employees most vulnerable to DOGE's latest firing sweep live and work

14 February 2025 at 13:15
A sign for the U.S. Office of Personnel Management
Many federal probationary workers have been fired this week, including at the Office of Personnel Management.

J. David Ake/Getty Images

  • Many federal probationary employees have been let go, such as some OPM and Forest Service workers.
  • BI looked at which states and agencies have the most federal workers who have been on the job for less than a year.
  • Many work at the Department of Veterans Affairs and military departments.

The latest wave of federal government firings is focused on recent hires β€” thousands of whom work for military offices or live in California.

Workers are generally considered "probationary" if they have less than one year of experience in their current role; for some agencies the probationary period can be longer. These workers typically lack the ability to appeal their removal and have fewer protections.

As of May 2024, data from the Office of Personnel Management showed the government has more than 200,000 people in cabinet-level and independent agencies who have been working for less than a year.

Business Insider looked at the latest employment data from the Office of Personnel Management to get a rough sense of how many workers could be affected. As of May 2024, the OPM data showed the Department of Veterans Affairs had over 56,000 workers with less than a year of service, though the department has said many recent hires are exempt from the current cuts. Many other people work for military departments, with over 19,500 civilian workers in the Department of the Army.

The following chart shows departments and agencies with more than 1,000 civilian workers who had been there for under a year.

California and Washington, DC, are home to many federal workers with less than a year of service. OPM data showed that California had more than 15,000 people as of May 2024, DC had nearly 12,500 people, and Virginia had about 12,400.

While exemptions exist, including for many positions deemed critical, many people could be potentially susceptible. Some employees have been targeted for underperforming, though some have told BI they were fired even with strong performance reviews.

To be sure, agencies are handling probationary employees differently, and not all agencies have alerted staff of changes yet. Some agencies are preserving the overwhelming majority of their probationary workers, while others are letting go of larger shares.

"The probationary period is a continuation of the job application process, not an entitlement for permanent employment," an OPM spokesperson said in a statement. "Agencies are taking independent action in light of the recent hiring freeze and in support of the President's broader efforts to restructure and streamline the federal government to better serve the American people at the highest possible standard."

Some congressional representatives have argued that though federal law permits probationary employees to be fired due to performance, it doesn't permit mass firings without individualized performance reviews.

A statement from Everett Kelley, President of the American Federation of Government Employees, a federal workers union, said, "This administration has abused the probationary period to conduct a politically driven mass firing spree, targeting employees not because of performance, but because they were hired before Trump took office."

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Who has already been affected

As of Friday afternoon, departments and agencies such as the Department of Education, US Forest Service, and General Services Administration have begun firing probationary employees.

The Department of Veterans Affairs said on Thursday the department let over 1,000 workers go. The department argued the cuts would save over $98 million annually, though the vast majority of probationary employees kept their jobs.

"Those dismissed today include non-bargaining unit probationary employees who have served less than a year in a competitive service appointment or who have served less than two years in an excepted service appointment," a news release said, adding that a majority of the probationary workers were exempt because "they serve in mission-critical positions."

A few dozen probationary OPM employees were laid off Thursday afternoon and instructed to leave the building within half an hour. One OPM worker who had been working there for under a year and was let go this week said they thought they would be building a longer-term career at OPM.

"I always heard that federal jobs were good, the benefits were good, the pay was good," they said.

Firings of probationary employees have also rocked the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, Department of Energy, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dennis Lapcewich, the vice president of the Forest Service Council of the National Federation of Federal Employees union, told BI the jobs of about 3,400 probationary workers were cut.

Are you a federal employee who has been let go? Reach out to these reporters to share at mhoff@businessinsider.com and nsheidlower@businessinsider.com.

Read the original article on Business Insider

2 maps show the highest marriage and birth rates are in red states. They could get more funding for infrastructure under Trump.

14 February 2025 at 01:02
Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy takes the podium from U.S. President Donald Trump in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy aims to prioritize funding to communities with higher-than-average marriage and birth rates.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

  • Some red states might see a federal funding bump due to their higher birth and marriage rates.
  • Trump's transportation secretary suggested pushing more infrastructure money to such places.
  • More conservative states like Utah and the Dakotas could benefit from that plan.

Red states with high marriage and birth rates could see a big funding bump from President Donald Trump's new administration.

The day after Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was confirmed, he released a memo with an unusual provision: Federal transportation grants and loans should give preference to projects in "communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average."

If implemented, the directive would likely redistribute federal funds to more conservative parts of the country, which tend to have higher fertility and marriage rates.

Utah, North Dakota, and South Dakota, which are red states, had some of the country's highest birth rates in 2022. Vermont, Oregon, and Rhode Island, which are blue states, as well as Washington, DC, had the lowest fertility rates that year.

Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, all of which are red states, had the highest marriage rates in 2023 based on the share of each state's 15-year-old and older population who are married and not separated. Blue states New York and New Mexico were among the places with the lowest rates of married residents.

A DOT spokesperson said in a statement to Business Insider that "strong population growth" would be a factor in prioritizing funding. While birth rates contribute to population growth, internal migration and immigration tend to be larger factors. The department didn't say how it's measuring birth or marriage rates.

In a statement released alongside the memo, Duffy said his directive would restore "merit-based policies" at DOT. "The American people deserve an efficient, safe, and pro-growth transportation system based on sound decision-making, not political ideologies," he added.

The DOT memo appears in line with a desire for higher birth rates expressed by Trump administration leaders, including Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk. Vance and Musk have for years voiced concerns over the US' falling birth rate, and Vance has denigrated political opponents who don't have children. Vance has also lamented the rise in divorce and the decline in marriage rates.

There's precedent for the federal government to leverage transportation funds to pressure local governments to take certain policy actions. The National Minimum Drinking Age Act, signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1984, required all states to set their drinking age for alcohol to 21 or risk losing some amount of federal funding for highway construction.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Leaving a job to become an unpaid caregiver can be difficult. Trying to get your job or salary back could be even harder.

An old man in a wheelchair is getting a haircut
Some older Americans said they struggled to reenter the workforce after becoming full-time caregivers.

Ute Grabowsky/Getty Images

  • Older Americans are facing career setbacks due to caregiving for aging parents, impacting finances.
  • Many quit jobs or reduced their hours, unable to afford nursing homes for their loved ones.
  • Some told Business Insider they weren't able to land back on their feet after taking years off.

Many older Americans are facing a difficult choice: leave behind a career they've built for decades to care for their parents, or stay at their job and cover the high cost of care.

In the late 1990s, Maylia Tsen's parents moved from New York to live with her in Southern California. Tsen said her mother was facing several health issues and that her area offered better access to healthcare. Tsen continued to work full-time as a VP of sales and marketing, but eventually, it became too difficult to balance the role with her caregiving responsibilities. Around 2005, she left the job she'd spent years working toward, which she said paid more than $150,000 annually.

"I couldn't take full-time hours," said Tsen, 63. "I couldn't make that commitment because I never knew what was going to happen with them."

About two dozen older Americans told Business Insider in responses to reader surveys about work and retirement that they moved, quit their jobs, or switched to a part-time work schedule to care for their parents. Many made the decision because taking on caregiving themselves was the most economical option, as they couldn't afford the high costs of nursing homes or other long-term care for their parents.

They're now earning less since they reentered the labor market or are struggling to get hired in the industries they worked in before stepping away.

Are you an older American who has struggled to secure work due to caring for parents? Have you struggled in general to find a job recently? To share your story, please fill out this form.

The most recent data on unpaid caregiving from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that over the combined years of 2021 and 2022, about 9 million or 21% of 55- to 64-year-olds provided eldercare, referring to unpaid care provided by family or friends to those 65 or older. This demographic did about four hours on average of eldercare each day.

A 2021 AARP report found, based on a survey of 2,380 caregivers, that they spent on average $7,242 annually of their own money. Among the 1,415 working caregivers in the survey, 29% had to take paid time off from work in the past year because of caregiving.

"It's been a real financial challenge and burden," said Tsen. "Caregiving has taken a toll on me, financially, physically, and mentally."

Tsen's mother died 11 years ago, but she still cares for her 97-year-old father. To facilitate her caregiving, she's turned down higher-paying work in favor of lower-paying jobs that offered her the flexibility she needed. To pay the bills, she's had to draw upon her savings and retirement funds.

Struggling to land work after a pause

Some people have continued to face career obstacles after scaling back their caregiving responsibilities. D. Peterson, 65, applied for jobs unsuccessfully for a year and a half after taking three years off to care for her mother.

Peterson, who lives in Georgia and asked to obscure her first name to protect her family's privacy, often switched jobs and worked as a leasing consultant, administrative assistant, and real-estate agent throughout her career. She made enough to live comfortably but called herself a "poor money manager" and said she didn't prepare well for retirement. Because of her financial situation and her mother's health, she moved in with her in 2010.

At the start of the pandemic, she quit her job where she was earning $40,000 annually to care full time for her mom, who was in her mid-80s. Once her siblings became more involved with caretaking in 2023, Peterson looked for work β€” only to realize that landing a role with a three-year gap and being close to retirement age would be challenging.

She wasn't familiar with the new hiring technology like online interviews, and there weren't many administrative assistant roles remotely or in her area. The available ones had hundreds of applicants. And because she switched industries during her career, she said she couldn't prove her authority in one field as easily.

Peterson landed a job at a library a month ago, which pays $11 an hour, but she injured her ankle two weeks in and said she's applying elsewhere. She doesn't foresee herself being able to retire as she relies on her $1,600 monthly Social Security checks.

"I'm trying to save as much as I can and finally put myself on a budget, but my main concern now is my mom, who's losing her memory and eyesight but doesn't want to go into assisted living," Peterson said. "It's hard to stay motivated when you feel like you don't have the skills or face age discrimination."

The labor market has been difficult for job seekers in general, including for older Americans, some of whom have taken huge pay cuts after a layoff or voluntary departure. Additionally, even though the unemployment rate is historically low, hiring rates have slipped from more than 4% a few years ago to 3.3% and 3.4% in recent months.

Rita Choula, senior director of caregiving for AARP Public Policy Institute, told BI that more companies should aim to support caregivers. This can look like offering leave for caregivers or changes to company culture to normalize caring for an older adult.

"It's great that you have vacation leave, but we really want caregivers who are under enough stress to be able to take that time for them to rest and reset," Choula said.

Only finding limited work options

Older Americans told BI that caregiving meant sacrificing career opportunities that didn't work with their schedules, often adversely affecting their finances.

"Many employed caregivers face strain in managing both caregiving and work responsibilities simultaneously," the AARP report said. "These consequences can lead to reduced job security, fewer employment opportunities, and ultimately, lower retirement savings."

In 2017, Robin, who asked to use her first name for fear of professional repercussions, sold her condo in the DC area and moved into a nearby one-bedroom apartment with her legally blind mother. She had just been laid off from her government relations job.

Robin, 62, said caring for her mother has had lasting effects on her career and earnings. To help pay the bills, Robin said she worked various retail jobs, including as a cashier at Walgreens. She said this income wasn't sufficient, and she had to deplete much of her savings and 401(k).

"During that time, I was unable to hold anything more than a part-time job," she said.

In 2022, Robin's mother died, which allowed her to pursue full-time government relations roles. But, despite her roughly 20 years of industry experience, she said she struggled to land a job.

"Employers just see the gap on your rΓ©sumΓ©, and they don't realize that your time was spent productively, but in a very different way," she said.

In September 2022, Robin enrolled in the Senior Community Service Enrollment program, which helps unemployed older people find work. She said the program helped her land a part-time data analytics role with the National Council on Aging β€” which she started in October 2023 β€” and that she's interviewing for a full-time position with the organization.

"I'm really hoping the job comes through," she said, adding, "I definitely have to recover my finances."

Read the original article on Business Insider

It's official: Egg prices are at all-time highs after the biggest spike in 10 years

12 February 2025 at 08:24
Scrambled eggs, breakfast potatoes, bacon, sausage links, toast, orange slices on a plate

Roberto Machado Noa/LightRocket via Getty Images

  • Americans haven't seen this big of a monthly increase in egg prices in 10 years.
  • The 15.2% jump brought egg prices to a record high in January.
  • Gas and housing were two other pain points in January's 3% year-over-year increase in inflation.

The last time egg prices spiked this much in one month, Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar's "Bad Blood" dominated the airwaves.

Egg prices rose by 15.2% from December to January, the biggest month-over-month increase since June 2015. The average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs hit an all-time high of $4.95.

Egg prices contributed to overall inflation rising to 3% year over year in January and were a major driver of a jump in grocery prices. Eggs weren't the only category with a price spike β€” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said rising housing costs were responsible for almost a third of total inflation last month, and gas and energy prices crept up as well.

Still, a worsening bird flu crisis continues to hit shoppers in the egg aisle.

"The H5N1 bird flu sweeping through the U.S. agriculture industry is forcing farmers to cull infected birds and sending egg prices soaring, a big supply-side shock to food prices," Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, said in a statement.

To prevent hoarding, some grocery stores are cracking down on how many eggs a shopper can purchase at once. A Trader Joe's spokesperson recently told Business Insider that its limit was one carton per customer per day.

"We hope these limits will help to ensure that as many of our customers who need eggs are able to purchase them when they visit Trader Joe's," the spokesperson said.

Restaurants are also struggling with high prices. Waffle House recently added a temporary surcharge for egg orders.

"The continuing egg shortage caused by HPAI (bird flu) has caused a dramatic increase in egg prices," Waffle House told CNN. "Customers and restaurants are being forced to make difficult decisions."

Fresh whole milk and white bread are also more expensive than they were before the pandemic. The average price of coffee is higher than it was just a few years ago, too.

In a statement to BI, Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst, described coffee and eggs as outliers that "can aggravate many consumers who sometimes mistakenly see the anecdotal cases of inflation as an indication of general inflation." He added that that's not always true.

"There are specific reasons why eggs and coffee have been moving up on their own, issues that are not easily resolved," Hamrick said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Inflation came in hotter than expected in January

12 February 2025 at 05:31
A person next to a grocery cart with some items in it at a store
Inflation accelerated in January, new consumer price index data showed.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

  • New CPI data showed inflation heated up at the start of the year.
  • CPI increased 3% in January from a year ago, higher than the 2.9% forecast.
  • On Tuesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the economy is strong and the US isn't in a recession.

In January, inflation unexpectedly accelerated.

The consumer price index rose 3% from a year ago, data published Wednesday showed. That's above December's rate and the consensus expectation, both of which were 2.9%.

The CPI increased 0.5% over the month in January from December, above the forecast of 0.3% and recent month-over-month increases.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.3% in January from a year ago, above the forecast of 3.1%. It also rose 0.4% over the month, greater than the forecast of 0.3%.

Egg prices soared 15.2% in January from just a month prior and 53% year over year.

Rising rents and home prices continue to be stubborn problems. Shelter prices were up 0.4% over the month β€” a tick up from the previous month's 0.3% increase β€” and 4.4% over the year. BLS noted that the increase in housing prices accounted for "nearly 30 percent of the monthly all items increase."

Energy prices were up 1.1% over the month, largely powered by a 1.8% increase in gas prices.

The new data means inflation has heated up for four straight months.

"We want to see inflation move down, not up," Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst, said in a statement to Business Insider before the new data was published.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday in his regular semiannual testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs that the economy is strong and the US isn't in a recession.

"Labor market conditions have cooled from their formerly overheated state and remain solid," Powell said. "Inflation has moved much closer to our 2% longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated."

CME FedWatch showed after the report a 97.5% chance of a hold in interest rates at the next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March, up from 95.5% before the report. The FOMC held rates steady at its first scheduled 2025 meeting in January.

US 10-year treasury yields were up after the report, and stock futures slid.

The jobs report on Friday showed cooler job growth in January than expected, but unemployment cooled from 4.1% in December to 4%, and wage growth held steady.

"We're seeing economic activity staying healthy, and as a result of that, it takes a little bit of the urgency off of the Federal Reserve," Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said after the jobs report was published on Friday.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Read the original article on Business Insider

MBA grads are struggling to find work. Here's why it's unlikely to get easier anytime soon.

11 February 2025 at 06:38
Graduation cap with careers section of newspaper rolled like a diploma and downward trending arrow.

Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI

  • Recent MBA graduates are having a harder time finding jobs than a couple of years ago.
  • A white-collar hiring slowdown has impacted MBA graduates at schools like Harvard, Yale, and Stanford.
  • We asked economists whether the hiring landscape could improve in the years to come.

The white-collar job market has gotten so competitive, that even MBA graduates β€” once thought of as having a leg up in hiring β€” are struggling to land jobs. Their troubles could stick around for a while.

Since July, Joshua has worked at Starbucks while he looks for a marketing job. In the fall of 2023, his contract position at PlayStation was cut and, despite working with a recruiting agency, he still hasn't landed a job in his chosen industry.

"I'm an MBA graduate in his 30s, living paycheck to paycheck, watching what feels like the rest of my colleagues and classmates move forward with their lives," said Joshua, who earned his business degree from Santa Clara University in 2021. His last name is known to BI but is being withheld due to fear of professional repercussions.

Job acceptance rates at some of the top business schools have declined in recent years. Much of it likely has to do with a slowdown in white-collar hiring overall, but other evidence suggests companies are hiring fewer MBAs. After all, they may require a higher salary than their peers at a time when companies are pivoting to invest in technology that promises to do the job cheaper than any human β€” no matter their degree level.

MBA graduates' job-acceptance rates are down in a slowing job market

Business Insider looked at the job acceptance rates three months post-graduation at the top 15 business schools from US News and World Report's 2024 ranking β€” and focused on the nine MBA programs with publicly available data going back eight years and Harvard, with data going back six years.

At eight of the 10 schools, the class of 2024's job acceptance rate was the lowest.

Economists told BI that elevated interest rates and companies' investments in artificial intelligence are among the factors that have led to slower hiring for MBA graduates.

Gracy Sarkissian, associate dean of Columbia University's career management center, said that while the three-month post-graduation job acceptance rate for the school's MBA graduates fell in 2023, employment reached pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.

Dartmouth, Yale, Stanford, MIT, Dartmouth, the University of Michigan, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Virginia didn't respond to requests for comment. Duke and Harvard declined to comment.

The usual suspects for MBA hiring β€” consulting firms and Big Tech β€” are hiring fewer of them, the Wall Street Journal reported in January.

It's all part of an overall hiring slowdown. US businesses are hiring at nearly the lowest rate since 2013, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

While the overall US unemployment rate remains low compared to historical levels, many people who need a job are dealing with a considerably tougher market than a few years ago.

Are you an MBA graduate looking for a job? Are you comfortable sharing your story with a reporter? Please fill out this form.

Higher interest rates and economic uncertainty have slowed hiring for white-collar roles

Elevated interest rates have contributed to slower hiring in industries such as finance, tech, and consulting β€” sectors that attract many MBA grads, Kory Kantenga, head of economics, Americas at LinkedIn, told BI. Instead, healthcare, government, and hospitality have been dominating hiring since 2023.

In addition to higher interest rates, uncertainty about Trump administration policies and the impacts of AI have led some businesses to be more cautious about expanding their workforces, said Audrey Guo, an assistant professor of economics at Santa Clara University. She added tech companies that hired workers in droves during the pandemic β€” only to lay off many workers in recent years β€” may be looking to avoid this cycle in the current climate.

Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, said some companies could be slowing hiring because they're waiting to see if the economy can stick a "soft landing" β€” in which inflation comes down, the unemployment rate doesn't spike, and a recession is avoided. She said job openings for finance and tech roles on Indeed have fallen considerably from their peaks in 2022, to below levels seen in February 2020.

"If I were looking for a job in banking and finance or software development, I would expect it to definitely take longer than it did in 2022," Shrivastava said.

Finding work can be challenging even in sectors with more job openings. This includes management roles, where openings listed on Indeed are roughly 9% higher than they were in February 2020.

Dan Trujillo is trying to find one of those management roles. He was laid off in January from his role as a director of customer experience at a manufacturing company. He earned his Executive MBA from the University of Colorado a year earlier and said he struggled to land his previous job. "I applied to somewhere between 25 and 30 positions without ever hearing anything back other than a rejection email," said Trujillo, who's in his mid-40s and based in the Denver area.

Guo said some employers could be slowing hiring as they monitor the potential of AI tools in the workplace. Additionally, some companies' significant investments in AI could also be leaving them with less money to put toward hiring workers.

"I think the roles where we're seeing the biggest declines in demand now tend to be the ones that have really high returns to using AI," said Lisa Simon, chief economist at the workforce analytics company Revelio Labs. She cited software engineers and data analysts as two examples.

Rate cuts and an uptick in retirements could help job seekers

Looking ahead, Kantenga said that future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could help improve labor market conditions for MBA graduates. CME FedWatch, which projects interest-rate changes based on market activity, forecasts a nearly 84% chance rates will be lower by the end of the year. However, Kantenga said uncertainties tied to the Trump administration could lead some employers to slow hiring until they have a clearer sense of what policies will be implemented.

Additionally, some changes to the current labor market could work in the favor of MBA graduates. Satyam Panday, chief US and Canada economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that an uptick in baby boomer retirements in the coming years could create a gap in the workforce that AI likely won't be able to fill β€” which could make it easier for some MBA graduates to find work. While some companies may be able to get by with fewer workers, Guo said they'll still need to invest in their leaders of the future.

"Companies will need to think about how to still preserve a pipeline of new workers so that, eventually, when the senior people retire or need to be replaced, there still is some pipeline of people with that experience," she said.

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Trump moves ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, escalating trade tensions

President Donald Trump
US President Donald Trump is escalating his trade war.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

  • The White House announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
  • The US is the world's top steel importer, sourcing mainly from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
  • Higher tariffs may increase US inflation, affecting industries reliant on these metals.

President Donald Trump on Monday ordered 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, escalating his trade moves against some of the nation's closest allies.

Trump told reporters on Monday that he would announce "reciprocal tariffs," likely on Tuesday or Wednesday, on countries that have placed tariffs on US goods.

"If they are charging us 130% and we're charging them nothing, it's not going to stay that way," Trump said.

Steel and aluminum were among the first products that Trump targeted during his first term. He imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum but later granted some duty-free exemptions for trade partners, including Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

This time, Trump said he is giving "great consideration" to an exemption for Australia β€” a country with which the US has a trade surplus.

"We have a surplus with Australia. One of the few. And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes. They're rather far away and they need lots of airplanes," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

Since companies tend to pass the higher price of tariffs on to their customers, the move could boost prices of construction, cars, and travel.

The US is the world's top importer of steel, which is used in a wide range of industries, from construction to automobile manufacturing.

Canada, Mexico, and Brazil were the US' largest steel and iron suppliers last year by dollar value, Census Bureau data showed.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in a Tuesday statement that tariffs hurt businesses and consumers.

"I deeply regret the US decision to impose tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports," she said. "Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered β€” they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures."

Canada and Mexico were also among the top countries for aluminum and bauxite imports. The United Arab Emirates ranked No. 2, based on 2024 Census Bureau data by dollar value. Aluminum is used for aircraft construction, consumer products like cans, and construction, among other industries.

Shortly after taking office, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico. He later announced that those tariffs would be delayed 30 days after he reached a deal with both countries to strengthen border security.

Trump also placed a 10% tariff on imports from China, and China quickly announced retaliatory tariffs on coal, crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some vehicles. The tariffs announced Monday come in addition to the 10% tariffs on other goods, Bloomberg reported.

Charles Johnson, the president of the US Aluminum Association, said in a February 1 statement: "To ensure that American aluminum wins the future, President Trump should exempt the aluminum metal supply needed for American manufacturers, while continuing to take every possible action at the US border against unfairly traded Chinese aluminum."

Steel inflation may damp demand

There are fears that higher US tariffs on imports from key trade partners could drive up inflation in the US β€” at least in the short term.

"Constructing and ramping up new smelters/mills can take three or more years," Morgan Stanley analysts Carlos De Alba and Justin Ferrer said in a January 29 report. "Hence, any import tariffs applied to metals or mined products are likely to result in higher domestic prices for local buyers of these materials."

However, high steel prices could weigh on demand that has already been sluggish from the second half of 2024 due to US election uncertainty and seasonality, wrote analysts from the research firm CreditSights in a Tuesday note.

Meanwhile, it's unclear how Pittsburgh-based aluminum company Alcoa would restart capacity after scaling back in the US for years, they wrote.

But Trump's tariffs are politically strategic, the analysts wrote. The levies also curb transshipment through Canada and Mexico.

"The steel industry seems to becoming quasi-government-owned," wrote analysts from research firm CreditSights in a Tuesday note, citing the tariffs and the US blocking Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump is set to order new tariffs on steel and aluminum. Here are the top countries that supply America's metal imports.

10 February 2025 at 10:33
A steel worker pours molten aluminum into molds for castings of birds and animals.
A 25% tariff on aluminum and steel would affect the US's top trade partners.

James L. Amos/ Getty Images

  • Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum on Monday.
  • Canada, Mexico, and Brazil are key US steel suppliers; Canada, the UAE, and Mexico lead in aluminum.
  • These tariffs would likely lead to higher consumer prices on cars, homebuilding, and household goods.

President Donald Trump is planning to double down on his tariff agenda with a 25% levy on all steel and aluminum imports β€” a move that would likely make building construction and car assembly more expensive.

"Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25% tariff," Trump told reporters on Sunday, adding the blanket tariff would also apply to aluminum. He said he would formally announce the tariffs on Monday but has yet to clarify when the measures would be imposed.

Census Bureau data showed Canada, Mexico, and Brazil were the main suppliers of steel and iron imports to the US in 2024 by dollar value. Iron can be used to produce steel.

In 2024, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, and Mexico were the main countries behind US imports of aluminum and bauxite β€” a material used to create aluminum β€” by dollar value.

One of Trump's main goals early in his second term has been limiting foreign trade with an eye toward bolstering domestic industries. Many economists have said the brunt of tariffs could fall on American consumers.

If the steel and aluminum tariff plan is implemented, Americans can expect various consumer goods, like pipes and cooking utensils, to become more expensive because of lower supply, higher demand, and steeper import costs. The travel and construction industries are also likely to be affected.

Aluminum is primarily used to manufacture automobiles, airplanes, kitchen appliances, cans, and electrical transmission lines, per the US Geological Survey. Steel is also used in automobile production, as well as in the construction of bridges, buildings, and homes.

The metals tariff proposal comes days after a set of new 10% tariffs were implemented on China, which quickly retaliated with a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some vehicles. Additionally, the White House delayed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico after Trump made a deal with the nations' leaders on border-protection measures.

Trump's plan for metal tariffs also follows other big news in the steel industry. Japan's Nippon Steel announced on Friday that it would drop its nearly $15 billion acquisition bid for US Steel, ending a yearslong battle over American steel production. Nippon Steel said it would instead "invest heavily" in US Steel.

The president's new focus on metals tariffs shouldn't come as a surprise. During his first term in office, he imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. He later granted some duty-free exemptions to top trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. It's not clear whether he will do the same this time around.

The Trump administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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How to prepare if you're asked to return to the office

8 February 2025 at 01:07
A person walking in an office and people working at office desks in the background
People who have to return to the office can prepare ahead of time.

Maskot/Getty Images

  • A growing number of Americans have been told to return to the office full time.
  • If you're not used to the daily commute or have never worked in person, you can prepare.
  • You can test out commuting options and ask questions to someone who has more in-office experience.

So you've been told to return to the office full-time.

Maybe you're looking forward to the in-person interaction. Or perhaps you're worried about the commute, aren't sure about the dress code, or want to know if the policy is flexible.

John Morgan, president of Career Transition & Mobility and Leadership Development at LHH, told Business Insider that being in the office can be important for people starting out their careers because it can help with onboarding, creating connections, and understanding the workplace's mission.

Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University professor and an economist, said being in the office can be helpful for innovation and mentoring opportunities, but many people like working from home because it gives them quiet time to focus.

Whatever your views on the policy, Business Insider spoke to experts to learn the biggest challenges of RTO and the immediate steps you can take to feel more prepared.

Plan out your commute and in-office schedule

If you're feeling hesitant about going back full time, Amanda Augustine, career expert for TopResume, suggested talking to your manager about whether you can gradually build up from one day a week to five days. She also suggested trying out commuting options to identify what works best for you.

"You may find you're a lot less miserable if you get to ride a train or take a bus or take some sort of mass transportation where you could take a nap or listen to a podcast or read a book or zone out or put your makeup on, whatever it might be so that you kind of have your own time and you don't have to worry about being on the road," Augustine said.

Brian Elliott, author of "How the Future Works" and CEO of Work Forward, said to discuss with your team which meetings everyone is required to attend.

"If you can at least adjust the commute times, that can be really beneficial," Elliott said. "Meaning, if I don't have to commute during rush hour both directions, my commute may cut from being an hour to an hour and a half to being half an hour long, and that's a huge benefit."

Kyle M.K., Indeed's talent strategy advisor, said to find out what resources are available, including commuter benefits at your workplace.

Ask about appropriate office attire

An Indeed survey about returning to the office, conducted by The Harris Poll from January 30 to February 3, found that 28% of remote or hybrid workers said the need to buy clothes would be a large barrier to fully returning to the office.

Your casual working-from-home clothes might not be appropriate in the office.

Augustine said it's OK to ask what you are expected to wear when working from the office.

"In some companies, jeans are fine, and in other companies, khakis and a blazer are as underdressed as you're going to get," she said.

Talk to your boss and coworkers about expectations

You should get clarity about the exact expectations for time in the office and your responsibilities.

Elliott suggested asking, "Hey, what results am I expected to achieve? And as long as I'm achieving those, can I have some degree of flexibility back in return for continuing to perform on a very high level?"

Some people, such as those who graduated from college during the pandemic, have only ever worked remotely. Augustine's advice for them is to seek out someone respected at their company who has had more in-office experience. She said you can ask this person what the typical attire was like before employees worked remotely, suggestions on concentrating while working from the office, and rules for decorating office space.

"The questions you ask this individual can really run the gamut, but the idea is to leverage their experience so your transition back to the office goes smoothly," she said.

She added you should also talk to your manager about the office, including how they prefer to communicate while working in person β€” over a messaging platform or face to face.

What to do if you don't want to return to the office

If you're frustrated by the new work policy but don't want to leave your job, Augustine said try viewing this as an opportunity.

"If you really love what you're doing and you don't want to leave, but you're upset about this, and it's pretty hard that there's not going to be any flexibility, then you're going to have to bite the bullet," Augustine said. "You're going to have to accept it."

If you still want to leave, be prepared for a competitive remote job market. Recent Indeed data showed a lower share of job postings advertising remote or hybrid options recently compared to 2022.

Elliott said job seekers are more marketable when they're holding a job.

Plus, there may be less enforcement of the mandate over time. "If it were me I would comply initially to see if the new mandate is going to be enforced," Bloom said in an email. "Often the enforcement is initially high but wanes over time. It also provides some time to actively search for another job."

Augustine suggested waiting to quit until you're financially secure unless the job damages your health. She said in the meantime to take inventory of your skills and strengths while considering your non-negotiables for your next job.

While many US workers are returning to an office after being remote for the past few years, Kyle M.K. of Indeed thinks this return-to-office trend will be short-lived, and employers will give employees some flexibility again.

"I think eventually employers are going to recognize that the well-being of their employees is far more important than any other assumption that they might have about what it takes to have a great workforce, and listening to their employees is probably going to be their best strategy moving forward," he said.

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The US economy added 143,000 jobs in January, fewer than expected

7 February 2025 at 05:32
People in line for a job fair
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published January employment data on Friday.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

  • The US economy added 143,000 jobs in January, missing the forecast of 169,000.
  • Unemployment unexpectedly fell from 4.1% in December to 4%.
  • The new jobs report included revisions to past job growth figures.

The US had disappointing job growth in January but a welcome drop in unemployment.

The economy added 143,000 jobs, below the forecast of 169,000. However, unemployment was expected to be 4.1% again but declined to 4%.

"Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance," a Bureau of Labor Statistics news release said on Friday. "Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry."

Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, described the labor market as tight and job growth as uneven.

She pointed out that goods-producing industries added no net jobs overall. Employment dropped by 7,000 in mining and logging but increased by 3,000 in manufacturing and 4,000 in construction.

"It is really struggling under the weight of high interest rates," Pollak said. "That pesky 10-year yield is killing investment in production."

December's job growth was revised from 256,000 to 307,000. November's gain was also revised, from 212,000 to 261,000.

It is typical for the monthly jobs report to include revisions for the previous two months of data.

The new jobs report brings in the BLS' annual revisions to previous job creation figures based on updated data from businesses. That includes revisions for 2024 and other recent years.

A majority of months in 2024 saw smaller job gains than previously reported.

The labor force participation rate ticked up from 62.5% to 62.6%. The employment-population ratio also ticked up from 60% to 60.1%.

Year-over-year wage growth was steady. Average earnings increased from $34.47 an hour in January 2024 to $35.87 an hour this past January. That's a 4.1% increase, same as December's increase.

Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that job seeking can be tough depending on someone's industry.

"The labor market is solid, but for workers who are in a field like tech or marketing or some of these other areas where hiring has been lower, it maybe isn't going to feel like that," Stahle said.

He added that's not the same case for healthcare workers and people landing state and local government jobs. Healthcare in particular has had robust monthly job growth compared to other major areas of the job market.

Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, said earlier this week that "labor market momentum in 2025 will depend on two key trends β€” lower labor costs for employers and higher confidence among employees."

Yosif added that "labor costs remain much too high for employers, and this week's quits numbers show that employees are still not confident in their prospects of finding a new position." Quits have been fairly steady and low compared to the Great Resignation, data up to December showed.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at which members will decide what to do with interest rates, is scheduled for mid-March. After the new jobs report, CME FedWatch showed a 91.5% chance of a hold in March, slightly up from the 85.5% chance earlier Friday morning. More economic data will be published before the meeting.

"With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance," Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the January FOMC meeting.

Markets were largely unaffected after the report. Stock futures barely moved, and bond yields ticked slightly up, suggesting that investors don't see the report as having too much of an impact on the Fed's plans for the rest of the year.

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Why Friday's jobs report could cause widespread confusion

7 February 2025 at 01:00
blur of employees walking to work
Recalibrations in government population data could impact Friday's jobs report.

AzmanL/Getty Images

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics revises employment estimates annually with new data.
  • This year's revisions could show much lower job growth in 2024 than previously reported.
  • It's part of the BLS making employment estimates more accurate.

Friday's job numbers may not be what you expect.

The report is likely to show slower job growth from last year due to a regular update to the government's data β€” likely among the biggest payroll adjustments in years. But, if the numbers come as a surprise, they shouldn't raise alarm bells.

TL;DR: In the January jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the previous year's jobs figures with more complete numbers. This year, revisions are expected to show a double whammy of fewer jobs than previously measured and a larger overall population due to updates in Census Bureau numbers. It could all look like a weaker 2024 job market than previously measured.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics undertakes its benchmark revisions each year in the January employment report. The government recalibrates its basic estimates of job growth over the previous few years based on more complete data reported from businesses. This year's revisions are expected to show smaller job gains in 2024 than were previously reported.

The BLS has already provided an idea of how its new calibration will impact payroll data. A report released by the BLS in August showed that there were around 800,000 fewer jobs across the US economy in March 2024 than previously reported, a larger-than-usual decline relative to the earlier figure.

The headline monthly job growth numbers are based on a monthly survey of business establishments across the US. Any such survey measure represents an approximation of the underlying reality. The annual revisions recalibrate those surveys to more detailed but less timely measures of the full workforce based on administrative data like unemployment insurance records.

It's a bit like searching around for something in a dark room, versus turning on a light. While the initial jobs report gives the best and most timely estimate for employment across the world's biggest economy based on a relatively small sample of businesses, the revisions reflect additional and more complete information that takes a longer time to gather.

While these revisions happen every year, they've recently been relatively small. The below chart shows BLS payroll growth revisions for 2022 as reported in February 2023 and for 2023 as reported in February 2024. The revisions showed most months had larger job gains than reported earlier.

The household survey, which makes up the other half of the monthly jobs report, is also set to receive a major update.

That survey β€” which gathers information on Americans' socioeconomic health and provides the headline unemployment rate β€” will also be adjusted based on the Census Bureau's latest population estimates.

Updated Census estimates will likely result in a dramatic apparent uptick in population and employment after the Census Bureau improved how it measures immigration to the US, leading to a larger-than-usual adjustment to the underlying count of how many people live in the country. An apparent increase in employment between December and January would have more to do with those changes in the way the Census calculates population, not any real spike in the workforce. This also makes it difficult to compare household survey data accurately over time.

The likely upward jump in employment from the household survey and downward revision to payroll figures from the business survey could actually bring the two more in line with each other. For much of 2024, the business-derived employment figures suggested a rosier view of the labor market than those from the survey of workers. Combining the revisions together, we're likely to get a more coherent picture of a cooling but still decent job market.

Still, any substantial jumps in job numbers are likely a result of normal, regularly scheduled data recalibrations instead of unexpected economic conditions. Over time, recalibrations allow the Census and BLS to more accurately represent changes in America's workforce.

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One of the solutions to NYC's housing shortage is already running into regulatory hurdles

1 February 2025 at 01:07
A general view looking across the buildings and construction of downtown Brooklyn, looking toward Manhattan.
New York City recently legalized accessory dwelling units in certain low-density neighborhoods across the five boroughs.

Getty Images

  • New York City recently made it legal to add a housing unit to certain one- and two-family homes.
  • But both city and state regulations will drastically limit construction, experts say.
  • A state law severely restricts the addition of ADUs to two-family buildings.

One of the solutions to New York City's housing shortage β€” adding extra units in attics, basements, and backyards β€” is already running into a slew of regulatory hurdles.

Under the city's zoning reforms, certain one- and two-family building owners will be allowed to add a so-called "accessory dwelling unit" to rent out, house a family member, or live in themselves. Homeowners could boost the value of their property and bring in extra income while creating more homes in a city facing a dire housing shortage. The change would also help bring many of the city's tens of thousands of existing basement units into compliance with health and safety codes.

But the city's new law restricts ADUs in several ways, including by banning ADUs on lots with attached rowhomes or townhouses and on lots more than half a mile from a mass transit station. The law also prohibits ground-floor and basement ADUs in areas prone to coastal flooding and inland flooding during heavy rain. A backyard ADU can cover no more than a third of the yard and can't be added in historic districts.

A state law that could block a lot of building

ADUs aren't just subject to city regulations. New York State's Multiple Dwelling Law (MDL) requires that buildings with three or more units have features one might associate with a large apartment building. For example, the law requires sprinklers in every unit and a certain ceiling height in basements, both of which can be prohibitively costly to add to an existing building.

"A lot of the sites that might be able to add an ADU would trigger the MDL and, therefore, wouldn't really be viable from a design perspective," said Marcel Negret, the director of land-use planning at the Regional Plan Association, a pro-housing nonprofit focused on the tri-state area.

Casey Berkovitz, the press secretary for the Department of City Planning, said the City is still examining how the MDL will apply to ADU construction, but agrees it would make it harder to add basement and attic ADUs in existing two-family homes.

There are exceptions. Building a new detached ADU wouldn't implicate the MDL because it's not part of an existing building, Berkovitz noted. And certain neighborhoods across the city are part of a new basement legalization effort that exempts them from certain MDL restrictions.

The state legislature could amend the MDL to reduce barriers for ADUs in New York City β€” something the City has asked it to do, said Eric Kober, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and former planner with the City. But he's not optimistic state lawmakers will get on board, adding, "There's no indication that it's on their radar or something that they're interested in doing."

Kober argued that the City's requirement that homeowners live on the lot they add an ADU is the most counter-productive of the regulations because it would prevent private developers from building ADUs.

The NYC government last fall said it expected that fewer than one in 200 eligible homeowners would choose to add an ADU to their property in a given year.

Negret estimated just a few thousand of the 82,000 additional homes the city is expected to add over the next 15 years under City of Yes will be ADUs. That's down from between 26,000 and 40,000 ADUs the city expected to add under the original version of its reforms, which were significantly reined in by the city council.

"My conclusion is, yes, ADUs are technically legal, but there's still a long, long way to go before they could be a much more significant share of a growing housing stock," Negret told Business Insider.

Legalization is just the first step

The city is still developing new rules that will impact ADU construction. This includes creating updated flood maps, which will likely further restrict where ADUs are allowed. It's unclear when the City will finalize the rulemaking process.

Eventually, the City says it will create a "one-stop shop" website to guide homeowners through the ADU construction process, including a set of pre-approved designs.

New York is following in the footsteps of cities such as Los Angeles and Seattle that view ADUs as low-hanging fruit in the quest for more affordable housing. After California loosened its restrictions on ADUs, the extra units made up nearly 20% of new homes built in 2023.

But progress tends to be slow. ADU legalization alone isn't usually enough to prompt lots of new construction. In some cities and towns, local land-use laws, permitting, and other regulations have stood in the way. Owner-occupancy requirements, off-street parking mandates, and discretionary permit reviews are among the most burdensome rules.

Just over a year ago, the NYC government rolled out a pilot grant program β€” called "Plus One ADU" β€” that awarded 15 homeowners with up to nearly $400,000 in funding per household to build an extra dwelling in their backyard, basement, or attic. The city has since expanded that program, but it applies only to lots that are already zoned to accommodate another unit.

"ADUs are a proven tool in cities across the country to support working families with extra space, additional income, and the opportunity to age in place," Dan Garodnick, the director of the New York City Department of City Planning, told Business Insider in a December statement.

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New tariffs are coming. 2 maps show the top trade partners for every state.

31 January 2025 at 12:16
Donald Trump
President Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

  • President Donald Trump wants to impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
  • Many states had one of those three countries as their biggest trade partner in 2023.
  • The expected tariffs may raise prices and lead to retaliatory trade moves.

President Donald Trump is planning to levy new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Those countries are big international trade partners for many US states.

Trump said on Thursday the "massive subsidies that we're giving to Canada and to Mexico in the form of deficits" were one of the reasons for the tariffs.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said on Friday that Trump would implement 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as Saturday.

Canada was the largest goods import trade partner for nearly half of the 50 states in 2023, according to Census Bureau data. You can hover over the map below to see more about the top import trade partners for each state.

Trump talked about tariff plans before his second presidency started. One of Trump's Truth Social posts from November said the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be in effect "until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

If Trump does implement his tariff plans, it could lead to retaliatory tariffs from the targeted countries, which could harm US exports. Canada was the largest export trade partner for 36 states in 2023, while Mexico was the main export trade partner for several other states.

The new tariffs would likely affect US consumers.

"We'll see businesses deciding whether they're going to absorb those extra costs or they're going to pass them through to consumers," Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, previously told Business Insider. "Given that consumer spending has been fairly buoyant and that the economy is doing well, we would expect them to pass a lot of it through to consumers."

Tiff Macklem, the governor of the Bank of Canada, recently talked about the economic effects of a trade conflict between the US and Canada.

"A long-lasting and broad-based trade conflict would badly hurt economic activity in Canada," Macklem said this week. "At the same time, the higher cost of imported goods will put direct upward pressure on inflation."

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The US economy ended 2024 with cooler growth than expected in the fourth quarter

30 January 2025 at 05:34
A person in a grocery store
The Bureau of Economic Analysis published new data on Thursday that indicates how the US economy has been doing.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

  • The US economy grew more slowly in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.3%, below the forecast of 2.7%.
  • Economists think the economy was strong in 2024 and the chance of a recession in 2025 is low.

US real gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, well below the forecast of 2.7%.

That growth indicates a cooler economy than in the second and third quarters of the year.

"Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports," the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.

Gross private domestic investment fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6% in the fourth quarter after rising by 0.8% in the third quarter.

Consumer spending largely accounted for the overall real GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption expenditures increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2%, compared with 3.7% in the third quarter.

While the overall growth in the fourth quarter was cooler than in the second and third quarters of 2024, the 2.3% figure is an advance estimate, so it could change.

Real GDP growth for the full year was on par with the previous year's increase. Real GDP rose by 2.8% in 2024, compared with 2.9% in 2023.

Scott Helfstein, the head of investment strategy at Global X, said the GDP figures "provide further justification for the Fed pause." The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week after several consecutive rate cuts in 2024.

"The economy continues to grow at a healthy rate despite higher interest rates," Helfstein said. "While investment cooled a little, that was offset by a pickup in consumption around the holidays. Seems like a good time to ride the wave."

Matt Colyar, an economist for Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider before the publication of the new GDP data that the 2024 economy was strong.

"Inflation is still above the Fed's target but moderated throughout the year, and this happened without any meaningful increase in joblessness," Colyar said. "The increase in the unemployment rate was driven by an increase in labor supply. This helped ease some of the inflationary pressure coming from the labor market via wage growth."

Average monthly job growth was 186,000 in 2024, personal spending continued to climb, and a recession was avoided.

While it's still early in the year and President Donald Trump's second term has just begun, Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, argued that the risk of a recession this year is low.

"The issue is there is much we don't know right now about how the year will unfold," Renter said in a statement to BI. "Some potential policies, such as tariffs, stand to be inflationary. Others, such as those that could reduce the workforce, may slow economic growth. Most potential economic policies will take time to implement, and even more time to influence the economy, so my outlook for the 2025 economy remains on solid footing."

Colyar said Moody's Analytics expected cooler GDP growth this year.

"We expect growth slows closer to 2% in 2025 and is a little bit stronger than that in the first quarter," Colyar said. "That's not a concerning number. Consumers have grappled with higher inflation, and there are some budding signs that people are pulling back."

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Federal employees are ping-ponging between outrage, despair, and confusion as Trump's payout offer hits inboxes

Commuters sit on the bus as they pass the capitol building in Washington D.C.

Kevin Carter/Getty Images

  • The White House told federal workers they could voluntarily resign by February 6 and be paid through September.
  • The offer follows the Trump Administration's efforts to overhaul the federal workforce.
  • Many workers BI talked to were defiant, but some are moving on, or taking a wait-and-see approach.

Shock and outrage. Hopelessness, suspicion, and defiance.

Federal workers say they feel a mix of all of the above and more after payout offers landed in their inboxes late Tuesday. The Trump administration says workers can either return to the office full-time and face likely downsizing, or quit now and keep getting paid for the next eight months.

"I voted for Donald Trump twice, and on January 20th, I had hope that he would fulfill his promises," one federal employee told Business Insider. "However, when I received this email at 5:35 pm EST, that hope disappeared."

A Social Security Administration employee said that workers aren't the only ones at risk. "The public will suffer the most and the only group they can blame is the current one."

Or, as a 15-year veteran of the State Department put it: "They can fuck off and we won't be intimidated."

Business Insider spoke with more than a dozen workers at departments across the government in the hours after the email was sent. They requested anonymity to speak openly about their jobs. Their identities are known to BI.

Some are digging in their heels.

"I have no intention of quitting," one employee wrote in a text message.

According to a "deferred resignation offer" email sent by a White House office, workers have until February 6 to say whether they will voluntarily resign.

If they decide to leave, they will be exempt from in-person work, according to the email, and will receive pay and benefits through September unless they decide to leave earlier.

"I certainly won't be accepting a buyout," another employee said, adding that their teammates likely wouldn't either. "It's unpatriotic that he's trying to put people out of work or provide incentives for people to leave their stable jobs."

"I'm so sick of these stupid harassing emails," they added.

Deepening distrust

Others worry the administration won't stick to its word of steady pay and benefits through September β€” and aren't even sure the offer is actually a buyout, despite the language used in some media coverage.

"Suffice it to say the people I've been talking to don't trust how this will play out," one Department of Justice worker said, adding that they didn't see a budgetary or legal mechanism that would guarantee continued compensation.

The spotlight has encouraged at least one federal to look at the private sector.

"I will be seeking employment outside of government," the worker said, though they caveated they might also look for a job in the Department of Defense or the Department of Homeland Security. "I have no desire to work for an unappreciative organization."

Administration officials previously told CBS they believe up to 10% of federal workers would depart due to the new directives.

Meanwhile, another is in wait-and-see mode. Trump's second term has only just started, the employee told BI, and they want to give the administration the benefit of the doubt.

A break from historical precedent

The government has previously offered incentives for employees to leave as attempts to trim the federal workforce. In the 1990s, former President Clinton presented tens of thousands of workers with the option to leave their jobs.

A lawyer who works for the federal government questioned why it didn't follow the precedent set by previous administrations.

"In the federal government, reductions in force are covered by a litany of laws and regulations," said the lawyer, who specializes in employment issues. "Workers get severance pay, career transition assistance or job search help, and preference for other positions in federal government. This veiled threat about being laid off β€” it's illegal, indefensible, and incorrect."

The American Federation of Government Employees, the biggest union for federal workers, published a FAQ on Wednesday telling members to not take the email "at face value." It was "riddled with inconsistencies and uncertainties," the union said, and it was unclear if the office that issued the memo had the legal authority or budget to make good on its promises.

The National Treasury Employees Union President Doreen Greenwald urged federal workers to reject the "request to voluntarily quit their jobs. It is a bad deal for employees and the American people they serve."

The latest in a string of chaotic moves

The Tuesday email β€” which carries the same "Fork in the road" subject line as an Elon Musk memo sent to employees at X, then Twitter, in 2022 β€” is the latest in a string of chaos-causing, high-impact directives.

On Monday, the Trump administration announced that it was putting a "temporary pause" on federal grants and loans. A federal judge halted the freeze from taking effect before the administration itself rescinded the memo, BI reported.

"It's kind of like Whac-A-Mole. What do you respond to? Personally, I think I'm a little bit numb to it," said one federal employee who has worked in facilities management for more than a decade.

Federal workers have been a particular focus for the administration. Trump issued a return-to-work order for all federal employees on January 20, and has also put forth an executive order to reclassify certain civil servants, removing legal protections and making it easier to fire them.

According to a FAQ posted Tuesday, several categories of employees are ineligible for deferred resignation, including military personnel, USPS staff, and those working in immigration enforcement and national security roles.

The remaining federal workers will have six working days to weigh their options. If the initial offer had been more generous, the federal government lawyer said they may have taken it.

"If they were offering me a guaranteed check for seven months that I could take to the bank, I might consider it," they said. "But it's difficult to trust promises that aren't legally binding."

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Despite Trump's pressure campaign, you probably won't be seeing interest rate cuts this week

28 January 2025 at 01:03
Side by side images of Donald Trump and Jeremy Powell
Donald Trump and Jerome Powell.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP

  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in its first meeting of 2025.
  • Trump has said that he'll "demand" the Fed continue cutting rates.
  • Trump's tariff plans could complicate the Fed's decision-making this year.

The nation's central bank is likely to hold interest rates steady this week following President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision. After a series of rate cuts to close out 2024, markets expect the Federal Reserve to hit pause. CME FedWatch, which estimates interest-rate changes based on market predictions, forecasts a nearly 100% chance as of Monday afternoon the Fed will hold rates where they are.

If the central bank holds this week, it could set up a conflict with Trump, who has repeatedly stated his desire for interest rates to continue falling.

"I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world," Trump said at the World Economic Forum's annual event in Davos this past week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated that the central bank makes its decisions independently of politics and acts primarily based on data.

The Fed meeting follows data showing a robust US job market in late 2024. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above economists' expectations, and unemployment dropped to 4.1%.

"In the first half of 2024, we saw unemployment start rising, and it was a pretty good cause for concern," Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said. "But then in the back half of the year, we've seen that the unemployment rate has really stabilized."

That still-healthy labor market means the Fed likely won't feel pressure to rush more rate cuts to boost economic activity. Stahle told Business Insider after the jobs report was published earlier this month that "as long as the labor market is solid, it gives the Federal Reserve some time to work."

Inflation largely slowed in 2024 but closed out the year showing mixed signals, which may also give the Fed a reason to pause rate cuts. Overall CPI increased 2.9% over the year in December, higher than the 2.7% rate in November. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.2% over the year in December, a slowdown from the 3.3% rate the previous three months.

"The Fed is going to need to see a succession of inflation data that would make them feel that the progress toward the 2% target has resumed," Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst for Bankrate, told BI after the release of CPI data earlier this month. "There isn't a whole lot to latch onto to feel that way at this point."

It's unclear how the Fed will act on interest rates over the course of the year, and Trump's trade plans could complicate the central bank's decision-making. The president has threatened tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Russia, and the BRICS nations, and while he has so far used those threats as leverage to achieve policy goals, Trump indicated he is considering placing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1.

Many economists have argued that large and broad tariff increases could fuel a new round of price increases.

The Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections released in December penciled in two interest-rate cuts for 2025, but Powell said during a press conference that month that Trump's trade policies present too much uncertainty to clearly forecast what the Fed will do.

"We just don't know really very much at all about the actual policy, so it's very premature to try to make any kind of conclusion," Powell said in December. "We don't know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size. We don't know whether there'll be retaliatory tariffs. We don't know what the transmission of any of that will be into consumer prices."

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6 things to keep in mind to boost your chances of getting a promotion or a raise

26 January 2025 at 01:06
A man sits in front of a computer, and a man standing next to him, supervising, oversees his screen in a warehouse.
 If you're looking for a raise or promotion this year, make a strong plan with your boss.

alvarez/Getty Images

  • A raise or a promotion typically doesn't just happen on its own.
  • You should meet with your boss in advance to discuss a plan and where improvement is needed.
  • Share your wins with your boss and ensure the achievements highlight their impact on the company.

If you're hoping to get a promotion or raise later this year, you can do a few things now to make the most of your odds.

"Showing your work, communicating effectively, building rapport with people," Amy Lentz, the founder of Hack Your HR and chief people officer of footwear company Toms, said. "It's not just about doing good work. It's about building good connections to make sure that the work that you're doing is visible and truly valuable, not just to you and your goals."

Before you potentially land an increase in pay or move up the career ladder, you would likely want to talk to your boss about a plan, talk to colleagues who have grown at the organization, consider your achievements, and work on important projects.

Timing could also work in your favor. Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said the career site's latest annual employer survey from late 2024 showed a majority of businesses do expect to raise their workers' pay this year.

Recent labor actions "show that workers still have plenty of leverage in many industries and that employers still have reason to be quite spooked and feel substantial wage growth pressure," Pollak told BI.

Pollak said with different efficiency improvements in the workplace, employers can "afford to reward workers for their increased productivity."

Here's what to know about raises and promotions.

Timing is important

Jenny Wood, author of the career and advice newsletter Big Small Things, said not to ask for a promotion the week before the promotion cycle and not to quickly bring it up in your usual one-on-one meeting with your boss. Instead, she said to have a 30- or 45-minute meeting where career development is the focus. That meeting should also be long before the promotion cycle at your company, so there's time to develop a strategy.

"The onus is on you to go in there and be an advocate for yourself and twice a year to have a career development conversation with your boss," Wood said.

Lentz said to wisely consider when you advocate for a raise or promotion, such as after working on a big project or ahead of when budgets are set at your organization.

You may also need to consider whether you still need to build up more experience before asking for a promotion or a pay bump.

"Be mindful that the idea is to seek significance once you've done something significant," Wood said.

Prep before meeting with your manager

Wood suggested ranking yourself in a spreadsheet on a range of characteristics before the dedicated career development meeting. That includes self-evaluating your teamwork, problem-solving, or other areas important to your company and how you've grown over the last year.

You can ask your boss to add their input to the spreadsheet before the meeting or talk about it during the chat, ask about which areas are important in order to progress at the company, and you can provide examples that demonstrate improvement during your conversation.

Wood also suggested sharing a document with your boss 24 hours before the dedicated meeting with five questions that have already been answered, which can help guide the meeting. Those questions could cover skills, people you should talk to in the organization, or projects that could help you be more successful in your career.

What to do during the meeting

Wood said to create a plan with your boss during the career-development meeting.

As the meeting is happening, you can also look for warning signs that the meeting isn't going well, such as if your manager is multitasking during it, Wood said. Your boss's body language may also indicate how it's going.

"Are they leaned into what you're saying, or are they pushing back? Are they pushing back with their words?" Wood said, adding, "You want your boss to be a participant in the creation. That's why you're having this dedicated meeting versus sending them an email."

Wood thinks enthusiasm is important during career development conversations.

"If there's one asset in any organization that is critical, it is enthusiasm, and it can overcompensate for so much skill, talent, and experience," Wood said. "So I always lead with enthusiasm in any kind of promotion or salary negotiation."

Show off your wins to your boss

Lentz suggested sharing your achievements with your boss every quarter or twice a year and including numbers. She also said to be aware of your manager's communication style when talking about accomplishments.

"If they're data-driven, bring metrics. If they value collaboration, you can highlight teamwork," Lentz said.

Wood said to write a list of your achievements. Each accomplishment on the list should detail your role, objective, and impact.

In your documentation of accomplishments, Lentz said to articulate the outcome of your time spent rather than simply talking about what you're doing. She also said wins should be measurable.

"Because what you're asking for is the most measurable thing of all, which is more money," Lentz said about raises. "So if you're going to ask for 15% more, well, what have you done that qualifies that?"

Consider who else is involved in these decisions and who you can ask for advice

Lentz suggested seeking clarity on the norms of promotions and raises at the company. That can include asking others how leadership responds to self-advocacy and asking about what timing looks like between promotions.

She said if you haven't been at the company long, look for people who have grown internally and ask them if they have some time to advise on investing in your growth at the company. Lentz said you can also contact human resources.

She gave some example questions for HR: "I am really curious to understand the inner workings. I know it's not a good time to ask for a raise, but when the timing is right, I would love to be prepared. Could we go over just leadership structure and the org review and understanding how positions are filled versus externally versus internally?"

Wood also said your boss's peers or managers are typically involved in raise and promotion decisions.

What questions you could ask your boss

Even if you don't want a promotion, you may think it's time for a raise. That conversation can be somewhat different than the promotion talk with your boss. Wood said instead of asking, "Can I get a raise?" you can ask one of the following questions:

  • What would it take for you to feel comfortable giving me a raise?
  • How else can I show my impact so that I am an easy candidate for a raise next year?
  • How can I meet other stakeholders to help you feel more comfortable giving me a raise?

Wood said your boss should also give the number for the raise β€” not you β€” since they might know what a typical raise at the company looks like for your tenure and position.

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Trump's RTO order sparks both backlash and acceptance from federal workers: 'Everybody's trying to figure it out'

Commuters wait for metro train in Washington DC
Commuters wait for the metro in Washington DC.

John Greim/LightRocket via Getty Images

  • President Trump issued an executive order requiring federal workers to return to the office full-time.
  • Some workers told BI that it will be a major strain on commutes and family life.
  • Others say they're willing to return to the office full-time, and see the value in the mandate.

President Donald Trump has officially ordered federal workers to come into the office full-time. It has some employees rethinking their careers, while others see value in the new mandate.

The return-to-office requirement is one of Trump's first moves, and it could reshape the federal workforce. In late November, Elon Musk β€” the head of Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency β€” and former DOGE co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy proposed the RTO mandate as a cost-cutting measure. They argued that it would effectively weed out employees who didn't want to go back.

Now that federal RTO is set to become reality, Business Insider spoke to a collection of federal workers who offered split perspectives on the order. Employees were granted anonymity to allow them to speak freely about their work situations. Their identities have been verified.

Detailed below are some of the main issues highlighted by frustrated federal workers, as well as the reasoning behind those in support of RTO.

More demanding commutes

One employee at the Department of Justice told Business Insider that one reason they took the job was because of the flexibility offered by telework. Now that they're facing a potential five-days-a-week requirement, their total weekly commute time could increase to 15 hours, up from six hours a week.

"You work for the government, it's supposed to be the best place to work, and suddenly you're seeing that you're not getting the same flexibilities that you've been living with and adjusting your life for, for the last couple years," the employee said.

An employee named Tyra, who works in the Health Resources and Services Administration, said the flexibility of remote work has allowed her to work out regularly after her shift ends. She now faces a 90-minute commute each way into Washington DC, something that could cut into her training to become a Pilates instructor.

"A lot of people live a little bit further away," Tyra said. "It's just a lot to consider and change abruptly."

Another federal worker said having to work in the office every day would mean "at least 10 stressful hours a week wasted in traffic," in addition to the time spent making lunch and other elements associated with getting ready for work.

"It will cost more money in gas, car wear and tear, parking fees, and business attire," they told BI.

Family-life complications

A veteran and four-year federal employee is trying to figure out how to restructure their family's life within the RTO mandate. They told BI that they had been teleworking since they started their job, which allowed flexibility for childcare. They haven't received any formal guidance yet from their agency, but they're starting to look at other career opportunities outside the federal government.

"Everybody's trying to figure it out, and we're trying to do it with limited time and on the fly," the worker said.

A clinical psychologist for a federal entity said they won't be able to work their job if it's not remote. As a military spouse, the employee is required to move around often, making it impossible to commute five days a week to a single location far from where they're stationed.

"It honestly makes me consider just leaving entirely in the first place," they said. "I can't be working for anyone where there's this much uncertainty when I have to support my family and when I have small children."

Those who support RTO

But not everyone is opposed to the RTO mandate. One federal employee says that while they're only required to work in the office two days a week, they would be willing to expand that.

"You need us to come in five days, we'll come in five days," the employee said. "We're adapting as we go along."

The employee added that they expect to see some workers retire earlier than planned due to this mandate. While they recognize the challenges it could bring, they're grateful for the employment and willing to work with it.

"There's a majority of Americans who probably would kill to have that opportunity, and they probably don't want to hear somebody complaining about, 'Well, I got to return to the office,'" the employee said.

Another worker in the Department of Homeland Security, who has already been going to work in-person the majority of the time, told BI being in the office "really enhances collaboration," adding that "decisions often happen more quickly." They also said working in the office can create clearer "boundaries between work and home life."

"I think it's overall a positive change in our work environment," the employee said.

Depleted morale and 'brain drain'

A Social Security Administration employee who works from home twice a week said the new RTO mandate will hurt organizational culture by deepening existing worker dissatisfaction.

"Morale is so low right now in this agency," they said, adding, "we'll have even more people wanting to leave."

In addition, one Treasury employee said the RTO order would lead to losing staff, including pushing some people into retirement.

There's going to be a possible "brain drain of senior, knowledgeable employees," they said.

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Trump's administration is looking to slash the federal workforce. Here's where the most people are employed and what they make.

22 January 2025 at 09:58
Donald Trump
President Donald Trump is looking to slash the federal workforce.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

  • Trump's administration asked federal agencies to compile lists of workers they could easily fire.
  • It reflects Trump's goals to reduce government spending and reduce the federal workforce.
  • Millions of Americans are employed by the US government. Here's how the agencies break down and what workers make.

President Donald Trump's administration is targeting federal workers' jobs.

On Trump's first day in the White House, his Office of Personnel Management asked agencies to compile lists of federal workers they could easily fire. Trump also signed an executive order on Monday establishing a hiring freeze on new workers to federal agencies.

It reflects the early priorities of the Department of Government Efficiency, which Tesla CEO Elon Musk is leading to cut government waste. Trump signed an executive order on Monday establishing DOGE as part of the White House with a mission of updating the government's technology systems.

While DOGE's stated goals in the executive order are narrower than originally proposed, Musk and Trump have previously voiced support for firing federal workers and eliminating federal agencies.

More than 2 million Americans collect their paychecks from the federal government, so Business Insider looked into which agencies employ the most people and what they pay on average.

The Trump press team and OPM did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

The US government is the largest employer in the country

The US Office of Personnel Management showed eight cabinet-level agencies, which are at the center of the executive branch and have heads that report directly to the president, had more than 100,000 civilian employees as of March.

Almost half a million people were employed in the Department of Veterans Affairs, while the Department of Education had just over 4,000. The Treasury Department had more than 100,000 employees as of March. The overwhelming majority of those β€” about 94,000 β€” were employed in the Internal Revenue Service.

Most departments had six-figure average salaries, with the Department of Education and the Department of Energy having the highest averages.

It's still unclear if DOGE or the Trump administration will focus on cuts at specific agencies. In the past, however, Trump has targeted the Department of Education, saying in 2023: "One other thing I'll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, DC, and sending all education and education work and needs back to the states."

Musk said during October remarks that while the commission's goal was to cut spending by reducing head count, he'd consider giving impacted workers "very long severances" that could amount to two years' pay.

"The point is not to be cruel or to have people not be able to pay their mortgage or anything," Musk said during his October remarks, adding, "We just have too many people in the government sector, and they could be more productive elsewhere."

The US Office of Personnel Management says on its website that "severance pay is authorized for full-time and part-time employees who are involuntarily separated from Federal service and who meet other conditions of eligibility." A spokesperson for the office told BI that the severance policy was up to date and that it "cannot comment on the actions of future administrations."

DOGE's goals could also still change, and it's unclear which spending cuts Congress would approve. BI previously reported that the US spent $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024. With Social Security, health programs, and Medicare topping the spending list, they could be on the commission's chopping block. But Medicare and Social Security are forms of mandatory spending that would require legislation to change.

Are you employed by the federal government and have a story to share? Reach out to these reporters at asheffey@businessinsider.com and mhoff@businessinsider.com.

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President Trump targets DEI mandates for federal employees

Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump
Donald and Melania Trump leave prayer services before the inauguration ceremony on Monday.

Jeenah Moon/REUTERS

  • President Trump took aim at federal DEI policies in his inaugural address on Monday.
  • He pledged to reverse executive orders from Biden, in favor of a "merit-based" society.
  • On Tuesday, the White House issued a presidential action ending DEI-based hiring in the FAA.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday ending diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in the federal government.

Federal agencies and departments have 60 days from the signing of the order to end DEI-related practices.

The executive order will be carried out by the US Office of Personnel Management and the Attorney General, who will review all existing federal employment practices, union contracts, and training policies to ensure compliance with the DEI termination order.

"Federal employment practices, including Federal employee performance reviews, shall reward individual initiative, skills, performance, and hard work and shall not under any circumstances consider DEI or DEIA factors, goals, policies, mandates, or requirements," the order read.

A separate order for the FAA

On Tuesday, Trump issued a separate presidential action ending DEI-based hiring in the Federal Aviation Agency.

All DEI initiatives in the FAA, the order said, will be replaced with practices of "hiring, promoting, and otherwise treating employees on the basis of individual capability, competence, achievement, and dedication."

As of Tuesday night, the contents of at least two web pages detailing DEI initiatives and DEI hiring at the FAA have been taken down.

The FAA and its overseeing body, the Department of Transportation, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Targeting DEI

Trump also used his inaugural address Monday to target DEI initiatives in the federal government.

"This week, I will also end the government policy of trying to socially engineer race and gender into every aspect of public and private life," he said Monday. "We will forge a society that is colorblind and merit-based."

He said it will be official US policy that "there are only two genders: male and female."

The remarks echoed his statements during a rally a day earlier when he pledged to end DEI mandates in government and the private sector.

Like many orders Trump signed on his first day, the move aims to undo several orders issued by Joe Biden during his presidency.

In one executive action from June 2021, Biden said the federal government is the largest employer in the nation and, thus, "must be a model for diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility, where all employees are treated with dignity and respect."

In response, the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) Talent Sourcing for America initiative was launched in September of 2022.

A 2022 report from the Office of Personnel Management said the government-wide DEIA initiative included a plan to prioritize equity for LGBTQI+ employees by "expanding the usage of gender markers and pronouns that respect transgender, gender non-conforming, and non-binary employees; and working to create a more inclusive workplace."

The report showed minimal changes in the federal workforce's demographics between fiscal years 2017 and 2021, which encompassed most of Trump's first term. This included "minor" changes in the shares of the federal workforce by race and gender.

A 2024 report from OPM found minor increases in federal staffing diversity under the Biden administration after the DEIA objectives were announced, but indicated the office's targets for diversity and equity initiatives were not met.

Though there had been only slight workforce demographic changes under the Biden administration, the Trump administration's first official statement released Monday reiterated his plans to "freeze bureaucrat hiring except in essential areas to end the onslaught of useless and overpaid DEI activists buried into the federal workforce," and "establish male and female as biological reality and protect women from radical gender ideology."

Meanwhile, several companies β€” including the nation's largest private employer, Walmart β€” have been reversing course on DEI initiatives in the weeks following Trump's election in November.

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