• Taiwan said it believes China was behind damage to one of its undersea cables.
• It said a Cameron-flagged vessel damaged a cable in the Taiwan Strait.
• It comes after similar incidents involving cables in the Baltic Sea were also linked to sabotage.

Taiwan suspects China of being behind damage to a crucial subsea communications cable just off its northern coast.

The damage occurred on Friday near Keelung, according to The Taipei Times, with Taiwanese coast guard officials believing a Cameroon-flagged vessel, the Shunxin 39, was responsible.

Despite being Cameroon-flagged, the ship is reportedly owned by a Hong Kong firm.

According to reports, the Taiwanese coast guard ordered the vessel to stop so it could be investigated, but because of rough weather conditions officials were unable to board the tanker, which continued on to its destination in South Korea.

"This is another case of a very worrying global trend of sabotage against subsea cables," a senior Taiwanese national security official told The Financial Times.

Marco Ho Cheng-hui, CEO of Taiwanese civil defense organization Kuma Academy, told The Taipei Times that China was testing the limits of international tolerance through escalating "grey zone" attacks, or covert attacks to undermine its security.

"This is not an isolated event," he said.

As an island, Taiwan is highly vulnerable to subsea cable disruptions, and analysts have warned that it's a weakness China could target as tensions escalate further.

The cable damaged Friday was the $500 million Trans-Pacific Express cable linking Taiwan and other parts of East Asia with the US West Coast, according to reports. The cables run for thousands of miles under the sea.

Chunghwa Telecom, one of the companies that operates the cable, said that the damage didn't cause major disruptions as it was able to divert data.

The incident is the latest possible attack on underwater cables.

In the Baltic Sea, there's been a series of mysterious cable severances in recent months, which European officials said could have been caused by Russian sabotage.

On Christmas Day, energy and telecoms cables were severed near Finland, with Finnish officials saying a tanker likely used by Russia to evade oil sanctions was responsible.

A Chinese vessel, NewNew Polar Bear, was also linked by European officials to damage to subsea cables in the Baltic in November.

Analysts told Business Insider last year that China and Russia see undersea cables as potential targets amid growing tensions with the US and its allies.

China has long menaced Taiwan, and the US has signaled that it could help Taiwan defend itself if it was attacked.

• Elon Musk made a string of bold posts on UK politics, calling for the prime minister to be removed.
• Some UK politicians embraced parts of his campaign, including a renewed focus on a rape-gang scandal.
• Others did not. Few joined the calls to remove PM Keir Starmer, who won an election in July.

Elon Musk on Friday deepened his feud with the government of the UK, calling for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to be removed from office.

The messages continued a trend of increasingly forthright political interventions by Musk, whose attention has moved beyond the US after his endorsement and support of President-elect Donald Trump.

In the past week, Musk has called for the removal of the government of Germany in forthcoming elections, as well as gradually escalating attacks on the UK's Labour government, which took power in July.

"Starmer must go," wrote Musk on Friday in a post viewed some 16 million times in less than six hours.

His argument was that Starmer did too little in an earlier role as Britain's chief prosecutor to combat the organized rape of girls.

The crimes began coming to light in 2002, with prominent cases in the English towns of Rochdale, Oldham, and Huddersfield.

They've resulted in scores of convictions, and been the subject of several inquiries, including a 2022 national inquiry.

Some critics of the original investigations have argued that the identity of the perpetrators — many of whom have Pakistani heritage — led to an inadequate response by authorities fearful of being called racist.

Musk's intervention prompted a mixed response among UK politicians. Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, said she agreed with Musk that there should be a formal inquiry into the issue, with a wider scope than the 2022 inquiry.

Reform UK, a smaller right-wing party led by Nigel Fararge, had already called for an inquiry as well. Musk has previously endorsed the party.

While the systemic rapes have been a part of public discourse for years, they were not an animating issue in the 2024 election, which Starmer's Labour Party won by a landslide.

UK politicians have generally not followed Musk in arguing that Starmer is unsuitable for office because of his role in leading prosecutions during his tenure from 2008 to 2013.

Starmer told The Times of London in 2012 that victims of grooming gangs had faced a "lack of understanding" and said he would order a restructuring of the way such cases are treated.

Wes Streeting, a Labour MP and member of Starmer's cabinet, pushed back at Musk's claims in a BBC interview on Friday.

"Some of the criticisms Elon Musk has made I think are misjudged and certainly misinformed," he said.

"But we're willing to work with Elon Musk who I think has got a big role to play with his social media platform to help us and other countries tackle these serious issues."

Alicia Kearns, a member of Badenoch's top team, told the BBC that Musk had "fallen prone" to sharing things on his X platform "without critically assessing them."

Bloomberg reported that UK right-wing politicians had privately contacted Trump's circle to warn against joining Musk in his support for Tommy Robinson, an imprisoned right-wing activist whom Musk has championed in his recent flurry of tweets.

Correction: January 3, 2025 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Kemi Badenoch's team member. She's Alicia Kearns, not Alicia Kears.

• Fisherman found a Chinese spy drone near the Philippines, officials said.
• The drone is yellow, torpedo-shaped, and labeled HY-119.
• China is clashing with the Philippines as it seeks to expand its influence in the South China Sea.

Fishermen found a Chinese underwater spy drone off the coast of the Philippines, police said.

The drone was discovered Thursday around six miles off the coast of a small island in the Masbate province, per a news release from the Philippines National Police.

Officers published photos of a yellow, torpedo-shaped device with fins.

The machine, they said, was marked "HY-119." They said they used that label to establish it was used for communication and navigation.

The site of the pickup was in the internal waters of the Philippines, relatively far from the open sea.

The device was handed over to the Philippines Navy for inspection, the news release said.

Philippine Navy sources told local media that the device appears to be a device for transmitting, recording, and monitoring data.

"The recovery of the HY-119 system has significant implications, as it provides insights into advanced underwater technology and naval capabilities," the police said in the statement.

Regional police director Andre Dizon told the AFP news agency that the drone has an "antenna and an eye that can be used for viewing."

"Based on our research, this can be used for monitoring and reconnaissance."

China has developed a sophisticated underwater drone program, which it uses to map underseas territory, and which can be used to surveil vessels and potentially attack them, according to an article by Lt. General P.C. Katoch, a former Indian naval officer, in 2021.

The discovery comes as China seeks to expand its influence in the South China Sea, to the west of the Philippines.

It has clashed with other countries near the sea, including the Philippines, over Beijing's disputed claims that it has the sole right to thousands of square miles of the sea.

China's intensified its naval presence in the region, and its vessels have been accused of harassing Philippines vessels. A recent clash, on December 4, saw a China Coast Guard vessel fired a water cannon at and "sideswipe" a Philippines government boat, reports said.

The South China Sea is the site of important shipping routes, and is believed to contain reserves of natural gas and oil as well as minerals.

In response, the US and its regional allies have increased their patrols in the South China Sea and warned China against escalating its aggression, saying it would help defend the Philippines if it were attacked.

• From 1932 to 1977 US presidents had a private yacht named USS Sequoia at their disposal.
• Aboard the Sequoia, presidents hosted foreign leaders and held glamorous parties.
• The boat was sold by the government by order of President Jimmy Carter in 1977.

From Air Force One to armored cars like "the Beast," the president of the United States tends to travel with a degree of style and fanfare.

Until the 1970s, perhaps the ultimate option was the US presidential yacht, a ship maintained for their exclusive use and known as the "floating White House."

On board, presidents hosted foreign leaders, held glamorous parties, and escaped the cares and clamor of Washington, DC.

President Jimmy Carter sold the yacht at auction in 1977 as part of his efforts to rein in the opulence of the presidency.

Take a look inside the last-ever presidential yacht, the USS Sequoia.

The USS Sequoia was designed in 1925 by Norwegian John Trumpy, who at the time made the most sought-after luxury yachts in the world.

The yacht, named after Sequoyah, a leader of the Cherokee Nation, measured 104 feet long. In its heyday, it had elegant cabins of mahogany and teak with brass finishings.

The US government bought it from a Texas oil tycoon in 1931 for $200,000, and it was soon reserved for use by presidents.

The vessel was berthed at Washington Navy Yard, a short drive from the White House.

Herbert Hoover was the first president to use the vessel, embarking for Florida coast fishing expeditions on the boat.

Hoover was so enamored of the Sequoia he even used a picture of it on his 1932 Christmas card.

However, at a time when many Americans were suffering from unemployment and poverty due to the Great Depression, the card drew criticism from political opponents.

The Sequoia has ample crew quarters and could sleep around eight people in her three double and two single state rooms.

In the president's bedroom cabin, the presidential seal decorated the wall above the bed and the bedspread.

The vessel had a spacious aft-deck, where about 40 guests could gather.

It was ideal for hosting family gatherings, or meetings with foreign leaders and their staff.

Up to 22 guests were able to dine on the vessel.

President Harry Truman added the piano to the salon after becoming president in 1945.

Lyndon Baines Johnson later added a drinks bar.

Different presidents made their own adjustments to the vessel.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who used a wheelchair for much of his presidency, had an elevator installed so he could access each deck.

According to legend, he also decommissioned the vessel so he and Prime Minister Winston Churchill could enjoy alcoholic drinks on deck while they planned their strategy in World War II.

At the time, no alcohol was permitted on US Navy vessels.

The vessel was intended as a place presidents could use as a private retreat, and there are no official records of its guests. As a result, rumors have long circulated about what took place on board.

The vessel was ideal for hosting foreign dignitaries, far from the glare of the media.

In June 1973, President Richard Nixon hosted Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev on the Sequoia, where the two negotiated the SALT-1 nuclear arms treaty.

It was Nixon who embarked on more trips on the boat than any other president, taking more than 100 in total.

During the Watergate crisis, he used the boat as a refuge.

Nixon told his family of his intention to resign the presidency over dinner on the Sequoia before retiring to the boat's saloon to drink scotch and play "God Bless America" on Truman's piano, CBS News reported.

Presidents also used the yacht on private trips, where they hosted friends and family.

On May 29, 1963, President John F Kennedy celebrated his 46th birthday aboard the Sequoia.

Among the guests for the dinner-party cruise were actors David Niven and Rat Pack member Peter Lawford, who was married to Kennedy's sister.

His brother Bobby Kennedy, the attorney general, was among the family who attended, alongside select members of Washington high society.

Guests described the event to The Washington Post as a raucous party, with French cuisine, flowing Champagne, and the president even making a pass at the wife of a party guest, a prominent journalist.

The birthday party was to be his last. Seven months later, Kennedy was assassinated on an official visit to Dallas.

President Lyndon Baines Johnson used to project movies on the main deck.

Johnson would use a projector to watch Western films on board the ship.

He also used the Sequoia as a retreat to cajole potential allies and formulate policy.

On board, he hosted members of Congress whom he lobbied over his landmark civil rights bill and strategized with officials as the US became further mired in the Vietnam War.

Nixon's secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, said the Sequoia allowed the president to "remove himself from the machinery of the White House."

"Of course, he can get on a plane and go to Florida or anywhere else, but that requires throwing the machinery into motion," Kissinger told Newsweek in 2012. "But here, he just can say at 5 o'clock: 'I'm going to the boat, I'm taking four or five people. And you don't have to call it a meeting and you don't have to prepare the papers.'"

Vowing a more modest presidency, Jimmy Carter sold the Sequoia in 1977.

When Carter took office in 1977, he sought to make good on his election pledge to strip the White House of the trappings of an "imperial presidency."

With running costs totaling $800,000 a year, the Sequoia had to go.

The New York Times reported it sold to a private buyer, Thomas Malloy, for $286,000, or almost $1.5 million in today's money, when adjusted for inflation. Malloy turned the boat into a tourist attraction.

Later, Carter revealed that selling the vessel was a decision he came to regret.

"People thought I was not being reverent enough to the office I was holding, that I was too much of a peanut farmer, not enough of an aristocrat, or something like that. So I think that shows that the American people want something of, an element of, image of monarchy in the White House," he told the JFK presidential library in a 2011 interview.

After sitting in disrepair for years, the presidential yacht is undergoing restoration work.

After its sale, the presidential yacht had a succession of owners.

It was designated a National Historic Landmark in 1987, spent the '90s in a shipyard, and ran chartered cruises until 2014.

However, the Sequoia fell into disrepair in subsequent years amid a legal battle over its ownership. It sat decaying in a Virginia dry dock, overrun by raccoons.

Its current owner, investor Michael Cantor, began restoring the vessel in 2019 and plans to house it at the Richardson Maritime Centre in Maryland when the work is complete, Boat International reported.

• The New Orleans attack suspect carried an ISIS flag and pledged fealty to the group, officials said.
• The group, best known for global mass killings in 2015-2017, has again been gathering strength.
• The group was damaged but not defeated by a US-led campaign.

Back in 2017, the ISIS militant group's reign of terror appeared to be coming to an end.

A US-led coalition ousted its fighters from strongholds in Iraq and Syria, where they had ruled with brutality and inspired a series of harrowing attacks on Western cities.

The loss of its bases and the assassination of many of its leaders badly dented its power, and its prominence faded.

The attack in New Orleans on Wednesday brought the group back into stark prominence.

Fifteen people were killed when the driver of a truck slammed into New Year crowds on Bourbon Street — authorities said the suspect pledged allegiance to ISIS and flew its flag.

Experts and security officials have in recent months issued increasingly urgent warnings of ISIS gathering strength.

ISIS has "remained a continuing threat," said Jessica White, a terrorism analyst at London's Royal United Services Institute, even though it "had to adapt after its territorial defeat."

"They are a diffuse and networked organisation that has alliances and branches that continue to wield influence, cause terror, and further their goals," she told Business Insider on Thursday.

The FBI said it is investigating what ties the suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, may have had with the group. Authorities at first said Jabbar likely did not act alone, though in a press briefing on Thursday the agency said it no longer believes anyone else was involved.

ISIS renews itself

ISIS was little-known in 2015, when it shocked the world by seizing swaths of Syria and Iraq and putting them under a severe form of Islamic law.

The group became known for atrocities, staging theatrical beheadings of hostages, seizing thousands as slaves, and orchestrating waves of terror attacks.

Its adherents cumulatively killed hundreds of people in attacks on Western cities, including Paris and San Bernardino in 2015, Berlin, Brussels, Nice, and Orlando in 2016, and London and Barcelona in 2017.

Attacks in Iraq, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia killed many hundreds more.

A US-led military response, launched under President Barack Obama and continued under President Donald Trump, gradually eroded the group with airstrikes supported by allied militias on the ground. 

It culminated with the assassination of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, by US special forces in 2019.

Trump has since boasted of destroying the group, claiming at last year's Republican National Convention that in his first term "we defeated 100% of ISIS."

Since then, the US has maintained a small military presence in northern Syria meant to monitor and extinguish potential resurgence by the group.

Analysts say the group has seized on instability in Afghanistan, where the Taliban regained power after the 2021 US withdrawal, and ongoing chaos in Syria to quietly rebuild its strength.

The group's Afghan affiliate, ISIS-K, presents a particularly potent threat, wrote Colin Clarke, Director of Policy and Research at The Soufan Group, for Foreign Policy in August.

"It is both pushing its propaganda to a more global audience and threatening attacks farther afield," he wrote.

ISIS-K was linked to the March 2024 attack on a music venue in Moscow where 145 people were killed, as well as an attack on a procession in Kerman, Iran, in January 2024 where 95 were killed.

In August, officials foiled a planned ISIS attack at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria. The CIA's deputy director said extremists planned to kill "a huge number" there. 

Tactics to spread terror 

One of the main challenges for investigators will be to establish whether the New Orleans attacker took direct instruction from ISIS or was acting on his own volition, Sajjan J. Gohel, International Security Director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation, told CNN. 

The group mostly does not directly train extremists at its bases to carry out attacks, unlike the terror group Al-Qaida.

Instead, it largely remotely recruits and directs followers to carry out attacks that don't require much training, such as vehicle ramming or knife attacks.

Clarke, the ISIS expert, described this approach in his August article, called it a "virtual entrepreneur" model.

"Operatives in Afghanistan or Pakistan make contact with would-be ISIS-K supporters abroad to try to convince them to carry out attacks in the countries where they reside," wrote Clarke. 

Attacks following that model include the 2016 beheading of a Catholic priest in a church in France, according to reports at the time. 

The group is now less concerned with recruiting members in Syria and Iraq, and more on inciting attacks, said White, the RUSI expert.

"While the focus has shifted away from gathering followers to a centralised physical Caliphate, this has transformed the messaging to encouraging devotees to commit attacks whenever, wherever, and by whatever means they can," she said.

The New Orleans attack had "several strategic and symbolic considerations as potentially textbook ISIS," Gohel said.

Vehicle-rammings have been a feature of many deadly, ISIS-linked attacks.

The group's sophisticated propaganda is another powerful tool, enabling it to exploit grievances and attract supporters anywhere where there is internet access.

In some cases, followers with no direct links to the group have carried out attacks in its name. The 2017 Westminster Bridge attack in London seemed to fit that pattern.

The group's use of the internet, and success in radicalising those with no previous extremist links, make it particularly difficult to tackle.

"None of this is new. They just continue to throw it out every single day," Aaron Zelin, an expert on jihadist groups at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told NBC News of the group's methods. "And from their perspective, the hope is that it sticks with somebody,"

• The subsea cables that underpin the internet are at risk of Russian attack.
• The West is seeking to defend the cables, but it's a tough task.
• NATO has a backup plan — to reroute some data through space.

For decades, a vast network of largely undefended subsea cables has underpinned the internet. It's looking more and more vulnerable.

A series of recent mysterious cases of cables severed in the Baltic Sea, blamed by Western officials on Russian sabotage, has highlighted their exposure to attack.

On Christmas Day, a Baltic undersea power cable and several telecommunications cables were severed underscoring the threat.

Officials in Finland are investigating a Russia-linked tanker, that they say may have severed the cables by dragging its anchor for dozens of miles across the seabed.

The incidents have sparked a race to safeguard the infrastructure, whose security many analysts say has been neglected.

Planning a HEIST

At the forefront is a NATO-funded project: the Hybrid Space/Submarine Architecture Ensuring Information Security of Telecommunications, or HEIST.

The initial test project is due to cost some $2 million, including $400,000 from NATO. It is being developed by academics alongside the satellite broadband firms Viasat and SpaceX.

If tests are successful, countries and companies would then buy into the network to fund a much wider rollout.

'Redefine the backbone of the internet'

The core idea is simple: To use satellites to transmit some data, making the West less reliant on undersea cables.

"Our ultimate ambition is to redefine the backbone of the internet," said Gregory Falco, an engineering professor at Cornell University working on HEIST.

"Instead of requiring all of our data to flow through subsea cables (of which 95% of the internet is reliant on) we would like to enable an ecosystem of options," he said.

"While one may argue that submarine communication cables are very efficient, they are not very resilient to natural or human-made threats."

"Overall, any measures to increase the resilience of our communications architecture is fundamentally needed. The multilayered approach of the HEIST program is a good start," Melanie Garson, Associate Professor in Conflict Resolution & International Security at University College London told BI.

Backup and deterrent

The plan works by fitting existing cables with sensors to detect disruptions, either from sabotage or natural events and accidents.

In an outage, they would automatically re-route the data via a network of satellites.

It could act as a deterrent, giving hostile vessels less incentive to approach the cables in the first place.

Falco said the tech would be tested in January. From there, the plan is to have "end-to-end functional capability" by December 2026, he said.

SpaceX already has its vast network of Starlink satellites beaming internet around the world to commercial customers and some militaries. But the service doesn't feature the rerouting concept HEIST is investigating.

Neither SpaceX or Viasat responded to requests for comment from Business Insider.

The threat to the cables is intensifying

In the meantime, Russia poses a threat to the cables, and has a motive to damage them.

Russia, analysts say, could seek to punish the West for its support for Ukraine by targeting crucial infrastructure like the cables.

Business Insider in August reported that a secret Russian undersea sabotage unit, the GUGI, had been surveilling the cables, which analysts warned that the West is ill-equipped to defend.

Space is dangerous, too

Though having two methods is better than one, satellites are hardly immune from disruption themselves.

Space weather events and collisions with debris (including manmade "space junk") can damage satellites — as well as attacks by rival powers like China.

Russia, for its part, would likely target satellites if direct fighting were ever to break out between it and the US, experts have warned.

In response, the race is on to defend satellite systems as well, with the Pentagon seeking to employ anti-jamming technology should they come under attack.

Falco told BI a key part of the HEIST project ensuring the backup satellites themselves were secure, too.

Priorities

And there are formidable technical challenges.

A combination of satellites and subsea cables has long been used for communicating highly sensitive data. However, figuring out how to reroute the data is a challenge on a different scale.

Falco said that, at first, HEIST would need to focus on the highest-priority data because it would be impossible to transfer everything.

Another computer science expert working on HEIST, Professor Henric Johnson of the Blekinge Institute of Technology, agreed that the challenge was substantial.

He cited the complexity of integrating the technology into existing infrastructure while staying ahead of quickly evolving threats.

"Adversaries are continuously developing new attack vectors, such as exploiting supply chain weaknesses or leveraging advanced AI tools, which require ongoing updates and refinements to the system," he said.

Johnson said that HEIST shouldn't be seen as a quick fix but as part of an ongoing process to secure Western infrastructure.

"It's important to acknowledge that security is a continuous process. HEIST is not a one-time solution but part of an evolving strategy to adapt to emerging risks," he said.

NATO did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

• Finland accused a Russian ship of dragging its anchor to sever undersea cables in the Baltic.
• Officials said the vessel, Eagle S, is part of a "shadow fleet" transporting sanctioned oil.
• The EU believes Russia is responsible for incidents that have disrupted power and internet service.

Western nations have long suspected that Russia has been deliberately severing vital underseas cables — but without much to prove it.

That may have changed after officials in Finland pointed to an unusually vivid piece of evidence tied to a Russia-linked ship.

Finnish officials on Sunday said they found miles and miles of tracks on the bed of the Baltic Sea that indicate a Russia-linked tanker could be responsible for slicing a cluster of valuable data and power cables.

Sami Paila, the detective chief inspector of Finland's National Bureau of Investigation, said "dragging marks" from an aging tanker's anchor had been found beneath the Baltic Sea near the cables, Reuters reported.

"The track is dozens of kilometers in length," Paila said.

Germany's foreign minister on Friday cited the incident as a "wake-up call," saying it would be naive to consider it an accident.

The minister, Annalena Baerbock, pushed for further European sanctions on the so-called "shadow fleet" of ships tied to Russia.

Finnish officials boarded the Eagle S after the Estlink 2 subsea cable carrying electricity and four other cables carrying data were damaged on Wednesday.

Estlink 2 is one of two cables carrying electricity between Finland and Estonia. Officials have said it might not be functional again until August, Reuters reported.

The Finnish telecommunications firm Cinia said the damage caused disruptions in internet communications between Rostock, Germany, and Helsinki and could take weeks to repair.

This is the latest in a series of similar incidents in the Baltic region.

The Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands, was carrying about 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline loaded in Russian ports. It was traveling to Egypt when the Finnish coast guard stopped it.

Finnish officials say it's likely part of a "shadow fleet," a network of vessels registered through complex ownership deals that carry fuel in an effort to circumvent international sanctions on Russia's oil trade.

This is the first time a part of the fleet has been accused of involvement in subsea cable sabotage.

"The suspected vessel is part of Russia's shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia's war budget," Kaja Kallas, the chief foreign affairs official for the EU, said.

"We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet," Kallas posted on X.

Russia has long denied any role in damaging subsea cables in the Baltic. The Russian embassy in the UK did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Internet cables between Germany and Finland and Sweden and Estonia were damaged in November. A Chinese vessel was detected in the vicinity when the damage occurred.

Estonia on Friday said it would be stepping up efforts to defend the undamaged Estlink 1 cable.

"We've decided to send our navy close to Estlink 1 to defend and secure our energy connection with Finland," Hanno Pevkur, Estonia's defense minister, said.

• Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, rejected Ukraine peace plans touted by Trump and his circle.
• "We are certainly not satisfied with the proposals," Lavrov said.
• Idea floating included posting European troops in a buffer zone, and distancing Ukraine from NATO.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected plans associated with President-elect Donald Trump to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

In an interview with Russian state news agency TASS published Monday, Lavrov criticized what he said he understood Trump's plane to be.

Here is how he phrased it, per an English translation of the interview posted by Russian's foreign ministry:

"…their idea is to suspend hostilities along the line of contact and transfer responsibility for confrontation with Russia to the Europeans. We are not happy, of course, with the proposals made by members of the Trump team to postpone Ukraine's admission to NATO for 20 years and to station British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine."

The plans have not officially been announced by Trump — they resemble a report by The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed people close to the president-elect.

Trump claimed on the campaign trail that he could bring the Ukraine war to an end within days, but said he would not describe how.

In a December 12 interview with Time magazine, also cited by Lavrov, Trump again said that he couldn't describe his plan in detail.

He said he wanted to "reach an agreement," and described the number of casualties from the war as intolerable.

It marks a significant shift from President Joe Biden's policy of providing Ukraine with open-ended support and leaving decisions on when to negotiate with Russia up to Kyiv.

Trump said in the Time interview that Biden was wrong to allow deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia, which he said escalated the conflict.

Lavrov's dismissal of the reported ideas follows Vladimir Putin on December 26 rejecting the possibility of freezing Ukraine's progress to NATO membership for 20 years.

Lavrov said Russia seeks an agreement "that would eliminate the root causes of the conflict and seal a mechanism precluding the possibility of their violation."

The Kremlin has long claimed that it launched the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine to halt the possible eastward expansion of NATO, the security treaty that's been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe.

Western countries, and Ukraine, contend that Ukraine did not pose a threat to Russia, and say Putin instead wants to conquer territory that used to be part of the Soviet Union.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said Lavrov's remarks indicate that Russia will likely refuse "to consider any compromises" to its demands for Ukraine to become permanently neutral and disband its military.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin caps each year with an hours-long, choreographed Q&A session.
• Key moments on Thursday covered Russia's fragile economy, the invasion of Ukraine, and Donald Trump.
• Putin sought to project an image of a powerful, thriving Russia, despite heavy challenges before him.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his marathon annual press conference on Thursday.

During the event, Putin fielded questions from members of the Russian public and journalists on issues ranging from spiking food prices to the war in Ukraine and global instability.

Here are some telling moments.

1) He acknowledged that Russia's economy is in a bad place

Putin opened the phone-in to discuss Russia's economy, acknowledging the inflation and high interest rates pummeling the country.

Russia's key interest rate stands at 21%, while inflation is at 8.9%.

Putin sought to ready the Russian people for more pain, saying inflation could hit 9.5% in 2025.

He said price rises — especially for food — had been an "unpleasant and bad" outcome.

Soaring prices — particularly of eggs — prompted a rare apology from Putin last year.

2) He didn't take all the blame, though

Putin didn't take total responsibility for the economic situation.

Per Reuters, he said both the central bank and the Russian federal government — which is formally run not by Putin but by the Russian prime minister — could have done better to stop the economy overheating.

He denied Western sanctions were having a significant impact on the Russian economy.

"They are not a key factor," Putin claimed.

3) Putin couldn't say when he would retake captured Russian land

Putin was bullish on his invasion of Ukraine, boasting of recent territorial gains by Russian forces there.

But, unlike last year, he also had to contend with the reality of Ukrainian troops continuing to occupy Russian soil in the Kursk region.

The Kursk attack was the first foreign military incursion into Russia since World War II, and a huge embarrassment for the Kremlin.

One caller to Putin asked when she could return home to Kursk — and Putin couldn't answer.

"For sure, we will get rid of them" Putin said. He declined to give a date, saying that it would put Russian soldiers at risk.

Troops would "try to deliver on that without regard for their own lives," he said of what would follow if he gave specifics.

4) He boasted about Russia's new missile

The Russian president once again claimed that Russia had developed a new ballistic missile that Western defenses were incapable of intercepting.

Russia fired the powerful Oreshnik missile last month at Dnipro, Ukraine. Analysts saw the attack as a thinly disguised threat to the West after the US and its allies allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Ukrainian officials said at the time that the missile was unusually powerful, and Putin claimed Thursday it travels at Mach 10, or ten times the speed of sound.

Western air defenses "stands no chance" of intercepting it, Putin said.

Some analysts were more measured in their assessment of the strike. The UK's Royal United Services Institute wrote in a recent analysis that the deployment of the Oreshnik was "more about political signalling than military utility in the war."

5) Putin was on the back foot over Syria's collapse

In response to a question by NBC News, Putin lengthily sought to rebut the idea that the collapse of the government in Syria leaves Russia weakened.

Putin had been a major international backer of the ousted Syrian president Bashar Assad, who fled to Moscow in the face of a rebel advance.

Business Insider reported that the swift collapse had caught Russia off guard, as well as Iran, Assad's other major supporter.

Putin defended Russia's support for Assad, claiming that its interventions there succeeded in preventing Syria from becoming a "terroristic enclave" like Afghanistan.

6) He left the door open for Trump

Putin said he was willing to meet President-elect Donald Trump but had not been contacted by Trump's team about a meeting.

"I am ready to meet him if he wants it," he says.

Trump has claimed he'll bring peace to Ukraine by forcing Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate.

It remains unclear what concessions either Ukraine or Russia might be willing to make to end the war.

7) Putin loved touting his friendship with China

The Russian president said that relations between Russia and China have never been better.

"We'll do nothing that will undermine the confidence" China has in Russia, said Putin. He described China's leader, Xi Jinping, as his friend.

Putin went on to describe how Russia fought alongside Chinese forces during World War II against Japan invaded.

"We stood side by side with China then and we stand side by side them now," Putin said.

Xi has spoken similarly warmly of Putin. But beneath the bromance vibes there are significant tensions.

China has provided key diplomatic and economic support to Russia in its Ukraine invasion.

But analysts say Putin likely resents being a junior partner to Xi, which vastly outstrips Russia in its population and economy.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Trump's decision to invite China's Xi Jinping to his inauguration surprised many observers.
• China is the US' main geopolitical rival, jostling for dominance across a range of trade and diplomatic issues.
• Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, balancing confrontational China policies with praise.

When President-elect Donald Trump invited China's President Xi Jinping, the leader of the US' biggest geopolitical rival, to his January inauguration on Thursday, it came as somewhat of a surprise.

The sight of Xi, China's authoritarian strongman, seated alongside top US political and military officials in DC would be incongruous, to say the least.

But Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, and has often balanced his confrontational China policies with years of lavishing praise for Xi.

Some see Trump's invitation as the latest power play designed to imbalance Xi and reset US-China relations.

"I think it's a gimmick. It would be impossible for Xi to attend without giving the sort of sign that he's almost like a vassal," Kerry Brown, an associate of the Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, told Business Insider.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the invitation also reflects Trump's faith in the personal, transactional relationships he's formed with strongman leaders.

"Trump's invitation reflects his desire to rebuild a rapport with President Xi, which he believes will be the decisive dynamic in shaping US-China relations during his second administration," Wyne told BI.

Reports on Thursday said that Xi would not attend the inauguration, and would instead send a top government official as envoy as an apparent gesture of goodwill.

If he did attend, it could be seen as an act of tribute to the democratic system China has sought to challenge, and the power of a state whose dominance it seeks to corrode.

"Going to Trump's inauguration makes Xi Jinping look like a supplicant to Trump, because this is a ceremony honoring Trump," Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told ABC News.

Thomas added: "Xi would be attending to honor Trump's victory, I don't think that sits well with Xi's self-image and his political reputation in China as a nationalist strongman."

A tough road ahead

Even so, Trump's invitation is likely an audacious opening gambit as he eyes new discussions with Xi, and China is fortifying itself diplomatically and economically in anticipation, analysts told Reuters.

Trump has long championed policies that aggressively confront China, and is threatening to ratchet up tariffs further when he takes office again next year.

Future negotiations will likely be tough, with the US and China at loggerheads over a range of trade and diplomatic issues.

China has backed Russia in its war with Ukraine, is forming closer ties with an axis of authoritarian powers, and is menacing Taiwan.

"Trump is performing politics," said Brown. "This is going to be a hard, difficult, technical negotiation with the Chinese if they're going to get the things they want: better market access, better balance."

China is also in a different position to when Trump first took office in 2017. Back then, the US and Chinese economies were highly interlinked.

Although close ties remain, partly in response to Trump's first-term tariffs China has moved to diversify its exports away from the US and has spent billions on research and development.

It has become the world leader in solar-panel and electric-vehicle technologies, as well as quantum computing and AI.

The US-China rivalry is also intensifying over sophisticated chip and satellite technologies, as well as rare Earth metals.

This month, China launched an antimonopoly probe into US chip giant Nvidia, and it is imposing restrictions on the export of drone parts vital for Ukraine in combatting Russia's invasion.

"It's all part of what's going to be a great, big performance next year about Trump trying to say that he's going to deliver this fantastic new deal with China. And the Chinese are well prepared for this," said Brown.

Analysts told Bloomberg that the Nvidia probe and other trade moves are bargaining chips China can use in future discussions.

All of this makes it highly unlikely that Xi will want to come to the US to clap as Trump is sworn in as president.

• The Kremlin restricted access to the global internet in some parts of Russia, reports said.
• Residents were unable to access websites including YouTube, Amazon, and Telegram.
• Russia is testing its own sovereign internet that it can have full control over.

The Kremlin is believed to have cut off access to the internet in some areas of Russia as it continues to build its own sovereign network.

Russia's federal internet regulation agency, Roskomnadzor, restricted global internet access for a day in several regions so that VPNs couldn't bypass it, reports said.

According to local news reports, cited by the US think tank The Institute for the Study of War, Roskomnadzor has been conducting tests to more closely control internet access in Dagestan, a Muslim-majority region in the country's south.

Dagestani news site Chernovik reported that people in the impacted regions, which also included Chechnya and Ingushetiya, were unable to access websites including YouTube, Amazon, and Telegram, even with virtual private networks or VPNs, that use encryption to bypass public internet platforms.

In a statement to Kommersant in November, Roskomnadzor said that the purpose of the tests was to ensure that Russia's internet, RuNet, could be cut off from the global internet.

Russia has long sought to restrict the country's access to the internet, with some websites, including global news websites, inaccessible to normal users.

The Kremlin wants to tightly manage the flow of information available to Russians, with subjects including the war in Ukraine heavily censored.

Some citizens have used VPNs to overcome the restrictions and access information and services on the global web.

Demand for VPNs spiked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when tougher internet restrictions were enforced, Business Insider reported in 2022.

The ISW said the recent tests appeared to be focused on regions with a history of unrest against authorities in Moscow.

"Roskomnadzor likely intended in part to test its ability to successfully disconnect Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia — Russian federal subjects with Muslim-majority populations and recent histories of instability — from services like Telegram in order to control the information space in the event of instability in the future," it noted.

It said the tests were likely part of a plan to more broadly restrict access to the global internet in Russia.

• Biden commuted the sentences of 1,500 people who were placed in home confinement.
• He also pardoned 39 Americans convicted of nonviolent crimes.
• Biden will continue to look at clemency petitions in the weeks ahead.

President Joe Biden on Thursday commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 people and pardoned 39 in the biggest single-day act of clemency in modern history.

The commutations applied to around 1,500 prisoners who were transferred to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic and who have successfully reintegrated into society.

They have "shown that they deserve a second chance," Biden said.

Biden also pardoned 39 people convicted of nonviolent crimes, The White House said.

It did not give the names of the people involved but said those granted clemency include a decorated military veteran who helped church members, a nurse who helped COVID-19 vaccine rollout efforts, and an addiction counselor.

"The President has issued more sentence commutations at this point in his presidency than any of his recent predecessors at the same point in their first terms," it added.

Barack Obama set the previously single-day record on his last day in office in 2017, after commuting the sentences of 330 inmates.

President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, issued 237 clemency orders during his first term in office, which the Pew Research Center said was among the lowest numbers of recent presidents. He issued 80% in his last months in office.

The orders announced Thursday, the White House said, "help reunite families, strengthen communities, and reintegrate individuals back into society."

Biden said he would continue to look at clemency petitions in the weeks ahead.

The move comes after Biden's decision to issue a full and unconditional pardon of his son Hunter.

Biden had previously insisted he would not use his pardon power to protect Hunter Biden from the verdicts in his cases. He addressed his change of heart in a statement, saying that politics has "infected" the justice system.

• China is limiting the sale of key drone components to the West, Bloomberg reported.
• The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January.
• It comes amid China's escalating trade dispute with the US.

China is limiting the export of critical components used in drones by Ukraine in its war against Russia's invasion, Bloomberg reported.

Multiple people with knowledge of the development told the publication that China is curbing the sale of drone parts to the US and Europe.

The report said Chinese manufacturers have limited the delivery of parts such as motors, batteries, and flight controllers, or stopped shipments completely.

The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January, Bloomberg added.

The moves come amid escalating diplomatic and trade disputes with the US.

The US has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's campaign in Ukraine, and last week restricted the sale of sophisticated chips to China used in military technology and AI.

Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a new trade war with China when he takes office in January.

In response, China has halted exports to the US of items relating to minerals and metals that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.

"The US has broadened the concept of national security, politicizing, and weaponizing trade and technology issues, and abused export control measures," China's commerce ministry said in a statement at the time, adding that the measures are effective immediately and are being implemented to "safeguard national security."

Flying drones, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), have been time crucial to Ukraine in holding back the Russian invasion, with cheap models made in Ukraine used for surveillance or fitted with explosives and used as bombs.

China's export restrictions are reportedly impacting Ukraine's capacity to make cheap drone domestically, as well as restricting the production of more sophisticated drones for firms in Europe and the US.

China is the dominant player in the global drone market, controlling around 70% of global drone markets, according to reports.

The restrictions could lead to intensified competition from Japan, Korea, and other economic rivals over the drone market, Keegan McBride, a researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute who studies tech policy, told Bloomberg.

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.

• Rebels toppled the Assad regime in Syria after a brutal 13-year civil war.
• Once again, the region's power dynamics have been dramatically reshaped.
• And there are risks and opportunities for the US.

In a lightning two-week campaign that shocked the world, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group deposed Bashar Assad, the longtime ruler of Syria.

President Joe Biden cautiously welcomed Assad's removal on Sunday, calling it a "moment of historic opportunity."

With Assad gone, there is a lot at stake for the US, and analysts warn that it must work carefully to further its goals in the region, and avoid the country collapsing into chaos.

Burcu Ozcelik a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the UK's Royal United Services Institute think tank, said Assad's defeat presents the US with an opportunity to further its longtime goal of denting Iranian regional power.

"With the overthrow of Assad, Iran has been dealt a strategic blow, meeting overarching US objectives to diminish and dismantle Iran's so-called axis of resistance," she said.

But Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding, said that since the Arab Spring of 2011, the US has had no diplomatic relations with Syria, and its role in the country in recent years has largely been limited to defeating ISIS.

This means it is still figuring out how to handle the situation.

"All of a sudden, I think they're dusting down documents," he said of the US.

A divided country

When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, it quickly became a brutal struggle for power between rebel militias, government forces, and their powerful foreign backers, including the US, Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

The US provided training and support for some rebel groups, notably Kurdish militias and moderate groups, but stopped short of direct involvement in the conflict.

When Islamic State militia seized swaths of northeastern Syria in 2014, and used it as a base for terror attacks in the West, the US led an international campaign to destroy the group.

But it's played a largely limited role in the country since, and has around 900 troops in the northeast, whose task is to quash IS operations and defend the US' Kurdish allies.

This could limit its ability to play a larger role now.

Developing ties

Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told BI that the US will likely limit its role to a "low-level campaign" fighting ISIS until a new authority is in place in Syria.

One key goal for the US will be to help restore order, defend its allies, and prevent another brutal power struggle among rival militias and religious groups that could spill over into neighboring countries.

According to Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, the end of Assad's rule has led to a "significant security vacuum" that extremist groups could exploit to regroup and expand.

Against that backdrop, the "caretaker government may struggle to deliver basic services," worsening the already dire humanitarian situation, he said.

On top of that, he said the US will likely have to contend with Iran and Russia as they seek to rebuild influence. Both countries will likely act "swiftly" to strike favorable deals with emerging power brokers in Syria, he said.

"Without effective coordination, this could spiral into another civil war."

Iran's power damaged

For years, Iran helped prop up the Assad regime, providing vital economic and military support during the civil war.

With Assad gone, Iran's "Axis of resistance" of states and militias whose mission is to eradicate US regional influence and destroy Israel looks much weaker, according to the Royal United Services Institute's Ozcelik.

She added: "As the dust settles, Iran will seek to carve out a reformed role for itself in a post-Assad Syria in the months and years to come, but for now, Tehran is weakened in its foreign policy adventurism and reputation in the Middle East."

Russia has also suffered a defeat with the overthrow of Assad.

Russian forces played a key role in rolling back advances by rebels when Russia entered the conflict in 2015. According to reports, Assad and his family have taken refuge in Moscow.

With Assad gone, Russia may have lost access to strategically vital military bases in Syria.

Who will take over?

Speculation is swirling on who will take power in the vacuum left by Assad's deposal.

Among the key contenders is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia that played a central role in defeating Assad, and who fought alongside an Al Qaeda affiliate during the US occupation of Iraq.

The HTS — a militant group designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the United Nations — has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.

But the group's roots as an affiliate of the terrorist group al Qaeda will likely be of concern in Washington, which has a $10 million bounty on the head of al-Jolani that US officials are now reportedly discussing removing.

"The terrorist designation of HTS and al-Jolani's own violent legacy in Iraq against American troops makes him far from an ideal partner for peace from the perspective of Western policymakers," said Ozcelik.

In a post on Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump said the US should stay out of the conflict.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, an international organization formed to combat the threat from extremist ideologies, said the main US concerns revolve around whether the HTS would seek stable governance, or continued insurgency.

"Some aspects of their rule in Idlib have been exclusionary and tyrannical," he said, "yet they claim to have cut ties with Al-Qaeda and to embrace diversity (Christians, Kurds, etc.) as part of Syria's identity."

Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Kent, meanwhile, said he struggles to see how Washington could work with al-Jolani directly unless he completely abandons his jihadist rhetoric and animosity toward Israel.

"Jolani is associated with al Qaeda and throughout much of his 'career' has expressed staunch anti-American and anti-Western views," he said.

However, he said another risk is that Syria breaks into territories controlled by competing militias and warlords, which he said would turn Syria into a potential base for terrorist activities.

From a US perspective, that would arguably be far worse.

• Russia last month suffered record casualties, according to UK intelligence.
• A US think tank said replacing the dead and injured with new recruits is not sustainable.
• It added that Western military support remains vital to Ukraine's war effort.

Russia will struggle to replace the increasing numbers of troops lost to death and injury on the frontline if the West continues to back Ukraine, a US think tank said.

The Russian military in November suffered record casualties, with around 1,500 troops killed or injured daily, as it pushed back the Ukrainian military in east Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, according to UK military intelligence.

The figures from the UK's Ministry of Defence said that Russia suffered 45,690 casualties in November, the fourth consecutive month in which its casualties have increased.

The Institute for the Study of War said on Thursday that the staggeringly high cost of deaths and injuries isn't sustainable.

"Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate," said the analysts in their daily update on the progress of the war.

Petro Chernyk, a Ukrainian military observer, told ArmyInform on December 3 that Russia has boosted its recruitment rates to around 42,000 a month.

However, it will need to increase that to 50,000 a month if it is to continue its advances in Donetsk sustaining its current casualty rates.

At the same time, Russia is suffering an acute domestic workforce shortage. Reuters reported in November that increasing numbers of workers are being pulled into Russia's growing defense sector, meaning that swaths of the economy are struggling to find staff.

High inflation and sanctions are compounding Russia's economic woes.

The Kremlin is offsetting its high losses in Ukraine by offering recruits relatively lucrative contracts and boosting ranks with prisoners and foreign fighters.

But Russia can't both replace its troops lost in Ukraine, and solve its workforce crisis, said the ISW.

"Russians can either serve in uniform in Ukraine, or work in Russia's domestic economy, but they cannot do both simultaneously," its analysts said.

Weapons from Western allies have been vital in enabling Ukraine to inflict massive casualty rates on Russia, even as severe manpower shortages of its own mean that it's struggling to hold off intensifying Russian attacks.

Russia has also been sending troops into head-on, high-casualty attacks, known as human wave or "meat grinder" attacks, which have contributed to a high casualty count.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to bring peace to Ukraine and has been critical of US support for Ukraine. His new Ukraine envoy nominee, Keith Kellogg, has previously suggested that US aid to Ukraine could be cut if Kyiv didn't enter into peace talks with Moscow.

President Joe Biden is seeking to divert as much of the remainder of US aid to Ukraine as possible before Trump takes power in January.

"The continued, regular provision of Western military assistance to Ukraine remains crucial to Ukraine's ability to continue defending against Russian offensive operations and inflicting unsustainable losses on the Russian military in 2025," the ISW said.

• China is flooding the developing world with cheap goods.
• Governments say the imports are undermining domestic industries.
• This could impact China's bid to lead the so-called "global South" of rising non-Western economies.

China is seeking to portray itself as the champion of the world's so-called "Global South" of non-Western rising economies.

But in its quest for influence, it's running up against an obstacle — a rising backlash to its trade practices.

From Indonesia to Brazil, cheap Chinese goods, including electronic vehicles, textiles, and steel, are flooding markets and, critics say, submerging local industries still seeking to recover from the economic downturn linked to COVID-19.

China's exports, meanwhile, are growing at a rate of around 12% in dollar terms year-on-year, according to October trade data, with 50% being sent to the developing world.

"There is significant backlash across the developing world to Chinese trade, lending, and investment practices, a trend that has only been accelerating in post-COVID," Charles Austin Jordan, a senior research analyst on Rhodium Group's China Projects team in Brussels, told Business Insider.

So far this year, Brazil has slapped 35% tariffs on Chinese fiber optic cable, as well as 25% on steel and iron imports, while Indonesia has imposed 200% tariffs on Chinese textile imports.

Thailand, for its part, has established a special government committee to clamp down on Chinese imports after the closure of hundreds of domestic factories, while Peru and Mexico are also imposing anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel.

China brokers trade ties in the developing world

In recent decades, wealthy Western economies have been accused of neglecting their economic and diplomatic ties with the developing world, and China has happily stepped into the gap.

As part of its "Belt and Road" economic initiative, China has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects in Africa, South America, and Asia, growing its political and economic influence.

Meanwhile, consumers in the developing world have benefited from the influx of affordable Chinese goods.

"Undoubtedly, this has been a huge boon to these countries in the short run," said Jordan.

Yet closer integration with the Chinese economy is coming at a cost.

As the economies of developing nations become woven more tightly with China's, the volume of cheap Chinese imports has increased.

And the flood of imports is holding back local industries, some of which are seeking to occupy parts of the global economy they expected China to vacate as it became more advanced, according to a recent report by the Rhodium Group.

The report pointed to areas such as textile and steel manufacturing.

Mingda Qiu, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI that developing countries would prefer promises from China to invest and build up domestic supply chains, rather than simply "flooding their markets with cheap goods."

"China's practices are depriving these countries of benefiting from the very model China used to ascend global value chains," said Jordan. "Industries simply can't compete with the deluge of subsidized Chinese products."

At the same time, critics of Beijing's 'Belt and Road' project are calling on developing nations to resist Chinese influence.

Jonathan Ward, a senior fellow at the Hudson Center in Washington, DC told BI that "developing nations still have the opportunity to retain their sovereignty, economic freedom, and future prosperity — if they push back against the Chinese Communist Party in concert with the United States and if other major economic centers and alternative partners in growth rise across the developing world."

China's dilemma

China has shown no sign of reducing the size of its manufacturing base, or of relinquishing its dominance of global export markets.

Partly, this is because of its own domestic economic woes.

As such, China is counting on its manufacturing and export base, which has long been the core of its economic power. In recent years, it has also been expanding to dominate green technology markets such as solar panels and electronic vehicles.

"China views its position as the center of global value chains as a strategic advantage, and the massive export-oriented manufacturing base provides immense economic benefits in terms of stable employment and technological upgrading," said Jordan.

He added that China believes it can withstand pressure from the West and "thwart retaliation from the developing world" by leveraging its economic and political heft. "There is a high degree of confidence that exports will continue to be a reliable source of growth," he said.

In the meantime, the growing rift with advanced Western economies has made China's exporters more dependent on developing markets.

"The linchpin of China's efforts to offset growing pushback from advanced industrial democracies is increased economic engagement with developing countries," said Ali Wyne, a senior researcher with the Crisis Group in Washington, DC.

He added: "As such, it will face growing pressure to ensure that its exports do not become more of an irritant in its relations across Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia."

There are signs that China is seeking to adapt, emphasizing "small but beautiful" infrastructure projects focused on sustainability and boosting local economies, as well as showcasing a zero-tariff trade policy with some African nations during a summit in September.

Yet the importance it places on its status as a manufacturing powerhouse, and the relative weakness of domestic Chinese demand, means the flow of cheap Chinese goods abroad is unlikely to let up anytime soon.

"Domestic underconsumption and mounting trade tensions with developed countries mean that there is no self-evident solution to its present challenge," said Wyne.

• UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot Wednesday in New York City.
• The words "deny," "defend," and "depose" were found on shell casings at the scene, reports said.
• Officials are investigating whether the words are related to a motive.

Police found the words "deny," "defend," and "depose" on casings from bullets used to kill the UnitedHealthcare executive Brian Thompson on Wednesday in New York City, reports said.

The words were found on casings at the scene in Manhattan, and police are investigating whether they indicate that the motive for the crime was the insurance company's response to a claim, ABC News first reported.

Thompson's wife, Paulette, told NBC on Wednesday that he had spoken to her about receiving death threats she believed were related to a "lack of coverage."

"There have been some threats," she told the network. "Basically, I don't know, a lack of coverage? I don't know details. I just know that he said there were some people that had been threatening him."

A spokesperson for UnitedHealthcare did not immediately respond to requests for comment on a potential link between the shooting and a coverage-denial issue. Paulette Thompson couldn't be reached by BI for comment.

The words on the cases are similar to the title of a 2010 book, "Delay Deny Defend," which is subtitled, "Why Insurance Companies Don't Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It."

The author of the book, Jay M. Feinman, a legal professor who specializes in insurance law, torts, and contract law, declined a request for comment.

Police are still searching for the shooter. Authorities have described the killing as a "targeted attack."

Thompson was gunned down at about 6:45 a.m. outside the Hilton hotel in midtown Manhattan. The shooter fled the scene before police arrived.

UnitedHealthcare is the largest private insurer in the US, and Thompson was in New York for an investor meeting when he was killed.

The "investor day" event was then canceled.

• South Korea was in chaos on Tuesday after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
• Yoon reversed course hours after invoking the law and now faces being impeached.
• South Korea's foe, North Korea, could seek to exploit the turmoil.

Kim Jong Un, North Korea's emboldened leader, is likely watching the events in South Korea closely and may use the turmoil to his benefit.

"We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea's democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul," Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford to CNN.

"We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise," he added.

It comes after South Korea, long one of the US' most important Asian allies, was tipped into political chaos on Tuesday when its president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law.

Yoon reversed course six hours later after lawmakers blocked the declaration. Calls for the president's resignation are now growing.

All six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea's longtime enemy, but it's likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.

How North Korea may respond

North Korea may decide it's "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation," Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US National Intelligence Council, told VOA.

The unrest comes at a time of heightened tensions in East Asia.

South Korea has long been backed by the US, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the republic, in its decadeslong frozen war with North Korea.

But North Korea, fuelled by Russian money and goods after backing the Kremlin's Ukraine invasion, is becoming more assertive and more aggressive.

It's escalating its threats toward South Korea, while ally China menaces US ally Taiwan with invasion.

Meanwhile, the US is seeking to bolster its democratic allies in the region to deter aggression by the axis of authoritarian states. It was reportedly caught off guard by Yoon's declaration on Tuesday but sought to project unwavering support for South Korean security as the turmoil unfolded.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday said the US commitment to South Korean security remained "ironclad."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea] with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Kim could use the crisis to intimidate and undermine its neighbor, and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US, say analysts.

Seiler told VOA that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

It could also take the form of propaganda designed to erode trust in democracy and government stability in South Korea.

US support may act as a deterrent

Not everyone agrees that there will be much action from North Korea, however. For one thing, US support for South Korea may act as a significant deterrent.

"North Korea is very likely to seek to capitalize politically. But the South Korea-US alliance is robust, with the two main political parties and 90% of South Koreans supporting it," Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of Department of European and International Studies at SOAS, told Business Insider.

David Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, told Newsweek that Kim is likely "rubbing his hands with glee" but said he was not in a good position to respond.

"I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea's political system, but not much else," he said.

• Damage to two internet cables caused outages in Finland, GlobalConnect said.
• The overland cables both linked Finland and Sweden, reports said.
• They are the latest cuts to cables in the Baltic region that power the internet.

The severance of two overland fibreoptic cables that carry internet data between Sweden and Finland has raised fears of sabotage.

The damage caused widespread outages in Finland, affecting thousands of households.

Finnish Minister of Transport and Communications, Lulu Ranne, said Tuesday that authorities were investigating the incidents alongside telecomms company GlobalConnect.

"We take the situation seriously," said Ranne.

Niklas Ekström, a spokesman for GlobalConnect, said diggers cutting cables by accident may be to blame.

However, after the recent severance of subsea cables in the Baltic, Sweden said it suspected foul play.

In a statement cited by Reuters, Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said: "Due to the circumstances surrounding what happened, sabotage is suspected."

One of the breaches to cables connecting Finland and Sweden was found in Espoo just west of the capital, Helsinki, while another was found in Vista, northwest of the city, reports said. 

GlobalConnect said one of the breaches was likely caused by excavation, and it's investigating the second, reported Reuters. It said one of the severances had been repaired.

It comes after two subsea cables, one carrying data between Germany and Finland and another between Sweden and Lithuania, were severed in late November. 

At the time, Finnish and German officials said at the time that they suspected the damage was caused by sabotage.

Geopolitical tensions, a lack of clear ownership, and outdated efforts to protect the infrastructure have all led to fears that they could be intentionally damaged by the likes of Russia or China, creating social and economic chaos.

Experts say that as the West has come to rely on the cables as a crucial part of its infrastructure, efforts to safeguard them have not kept pace.

Sweden, which is leading the inquiry into the subsea cable incidents, is investigating a Chinese ship that was near the cables when they were severed.