• Russian President Vladimir Putin caps each year with an hours-long, choreographed Q&A session.
• Key moments on Thursday covered Russia's fragile economy, the invasion of Ukraine, and Donald Trump.
• Putin sought to project an image of a powerful, thriving Russia, despite heavy challenges before him.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his marathon annual press conference on Thursday.

During the event, Putin fielded questions from members of the Russian public and journalists on issues ranging from spiking food prices to the war in Ukraine and global instability.

Here are some telling moments.

1) He acknowledged that Russia's economy is in a bad place

Putin opened the phone-in to discuss Russia's economy, acknowledging the inflation and high interest rates pummeling the country.

Russia's key interest rate stands at 21%, while inflation is at 8.9%.

Putin sought to ready the Russian people for more pain, saying inflation could hit 9.5% in 2025.

He said price rises — especially for food — had been an "unpleasant and bad" outcome.

Soaring prices — particularly of eggs — prompted a rare apology from Putin last year.

2) He didn't take all the blame, though

Putin didn't take total responsibility for the economic situation.

Per Reuters, he said both the central bank and the Russian federal government — which is formally run not by Putin but by the Russian prime minister — could have done better to stop the economy overheating.

He denied Western sanctions were having a significant impact on the Russian economy.

"They are not a key factor," Putin claimed.

3) Putin couldn't say when he would retake captured Russian land

Putin was bullish on his invasion of Ukraine, boasting of recent territorial gains by Russian forces there.

But, unlike last year, he also had to contend with the reality of Ukrainian troops continuing to occupy Russian soil in the Kursk region.

The Kursk attack was the first foreign military incursion into Russia since World War II, and a huge embarrassment for the Kremlin.

One caller to Putin asked when she could return home to Kursk — and Putin couldn't answer.

"For sure, we will get rid of them" Putin said. He declined to give a date, saying that it would put Russian soldiers at risk.

Troops would "try to deliver on that without regard for their own lives," he said of what would follow if he gave specifics.

4) He boasted about Russia's new missile

The Russian president once again claimed that Russia had developed a new ballistic missile that Western defenses were incapable of intercepting.

Russia fired the powerful Oreshnik missile last month at Dnipro, Ukraine. Analysts saw the attack as a thinly disguised threat to the West after the US and its allies allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles.

Ukrainian officials said at the time that the missile was unusually powerful, and Putin claimed Thursday it travels at Mach 10, or ten times the speed of sound.

Western air defenses "stands no chance" of intercepting it, Putin said.

Some analysts were more measured in their assessment of the strike. The UK's Royal United Services Institute wrote in a recent analysis that the deployment of the Oreshnik was "more about political signalling than military utility in the war."

5) Putin was on the back foot over Syria's collapse

In response to a question by NBC News, Putin lengthily sought to rebut the idea that the collapse of the government in Syria leaves Russia weakened.

Putin had been a major international backer of the ousted Syrian president Bashar Assad, who fled to Moscow in the face of a rebel advance.

Business Insider reported that the swift collapse had caught Russia off guard, as well as Iran, Assad's other major supporter.

Putin defended Russia's support for Assad, claiming that its interventions there succeeded in preventing Syria from becoming a "terroristic enclave" like Afghanistan.

6) He left the door open for Trump

Putin said he was willing to meet President-elect Donald Trump but had not been contacted by Trump's team about a meeting.

"I am ready to meet him if he wants it," he says.

Trump has claimed he'll bring peace to Ukraine by forcing Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate.

It remains unclear what concessions either Ukraine or Russia might be willing to make to end the war.

7) Putin loved touting his friendship with China

The Russian president said that relations between Russia and China have never been better.

"We'll do nothing that will undermine the confidence" China has in Russia, said Putin. He described China's leader, Xi Jinping, as his friend.

Putin went on to describe how Russia fought alongside Chinese forces during World War II against Japan invaded.

"We stood side by side with China then and we stand side by side them now," Putin said.

Xi has spoken similarly warmly of Putin. But beneath the bromance vibes there are significant tensions.

China has provided key diplomatic and economic support to Russia in its Ukraine invasion.

But analysts say Putin likely resents being a junior partner to Xi, which vastly outstrips Russia in its population and economy.

• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Trump's decision to invite China's Xi Jinping to his inauguration surprised many observers.
• China is the US' main geopolitical rival, jostling for dominance across a range of trade and diplomatic issues.
• Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, balancing confrontational China policies with praise.

When President-elect Donald Trump invited China's President Xi Jinping, the leader of the US' biggest geopolitical rival, to his January inauguration on Thursday, it came as somewhat of a surprise.

The sight of Xi, China's authoritarian strongman, seated alongside top US political and military officials in DC would be incongruous, to say the least.

But Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, and has often balanced his confrontational China policies with years of lavishing praise for Xi.

Some see Trump's invitation as the latest power play designed to imbalance Xi and reset US-China relations.

"I think it's a gimmick. It would be impossible for Xi to attend without giving the sort of sign that he's almost like a vassal," Kerry Brown, an associate of the Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, told Business Insider.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the invitation also reflects Trump's faith in the personal, transactional relationships he's formed with strongman leaders.

"Trump's invitation reflects his desire to rebuild a rapport with President Xi, which he believes will be the decisive dynamic in shaping US-China relations during his second administration," Wyne told BI.

Reports on Thursday said that Xi would not attend the inauguration, and would instead send a top government official as envoy as an apparent gesture of goodwill.

If he did attend, it could be seen as an act of tribute to the democratic system China has sought to challenge, and the power of a state whose dominance it seeks to corrode.

"Going to Trump's inauguration makes Xi Jinping look like a supplicant to Trump, because this is a ceremony honoring Trump," Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told ABC News.

Thomas added: "Xi would be attending to honor Trump's victory, I don't think that sits well with Xi's self-image and his political reputation in China as a nationalist strongman."

A tough road ahead

Even so, Trump's invitation is likely an audacious opening gambit as he eyes new discussions with Xi, and China is fortifying itself diplomatically and economically in anticipation, analysts told Reuters.

Trump has long championed policies that aggressively confront China, and is threatening to ratchet up tariffs further when he takes office again next year.

Future negotiations will likely be tough, with the US and China at loggerheads over a range of trade and diplomatic issues.

China has backed Russia in its war with Ukraine, is forming closer ties with an axis of authoritarian powers, and is menacing Taiwan.

"Trump is performing politics," said Brown. "This is going to be a hard, difficult, technical negotiation with the Chinese if they're going to get the things they want: better market access, better balance."

China is also in a different position to when Trump first took office in 2017. Back then, the US and Chinese economies were highly interlinked.

Although close ties remain, partly in response to Trump's first-term tariffs China has moved to diversify its exports away from the US and has spent billions on research and development.

It has become the world leader in solar-panel and electric-vehicle technologies, as well as quantum computing and AI.

The US-China rivalry is also intensifying over sophisticated chip and satellite technologies, as well as rare Earth metals.

This month, China launched an antimonopoly probe into US chip giant Nvidia, and it is imposing restrictions on the export of drone parts vital for Ukraine in combatting Russia's invasion.

"It's all part of what's going to be a great, big performance next year about Trump trying to say that he's going to deliver this fantastic new deal with China. And the Chinese are well prepared for this," said Brown.

Analysts told Bloomberg that the Nvidia probe and other trade moves are bargaining chips China can use in future discussions.

All of this makes it highly unlikely that Xi will want to come to the US to clap as Trump is sworn in as president.

• The Kremlin restricted access to the global internet in some parts of Russia, reports said.
• Residents were unable to access websites including YouTube, Amazon, and Telegram.
• Russia is testing its own sovereign internet that it can have full control over.

The Kremlin is believed to have cut off access to the internet in some areas of Russia as it continues to build its own sovereign network.

Russia's federal internet regulation agency, Roskomnadzor, restricted global internet access for a day in several regions so that VPNs couldn't bypass it, reports said.

According to local news reports, cited by the US think tank The Institute for the Study of War, Roskomnadzor has been conducting tests to more closely control internet access in Dagestan, a Muslim-majority region in the country's south.

Dagestani news site Chernovik reported that people in the impacted regions, which also included Chechnya and Ingushetiya, were unable to access websites including YouTube, Amazon, and Telegram, even with virtual private networks or VPNs, that use encryption to bypass public internet platforms.

In a statement to Kommersant in November, Roskomnadzor said that the purpose of the tests was to ensure that Russia's internet, RuNet, could be cut off from the global internet.

Russia has long sought to restrict the country's access to the internet, with some websites, including global news websites, inaccessible to normal users.

The Kremlin wants to tightly manage the flow of information available to Russians, with subjects including the war in Ukraine heavily censored.

Some citizens have used VPNs to overcome the restrictions and access information and services on the global web.

Demand for VPNs spiked after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when tougher internet restrictions were enforced, Business Insider reported in 2022.

The ISW said the recent tests appeared to be focused on regions with a history of unrest against authorities in Moscow.

"Roskomnadzor likely intended in part to test its ability to successfully disconnect Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia — Russian federal subjects with Muslim-majority populations and recent histories of instability — from services like Telegram in order to control the information space in the event of instability in the future," it noted.

It said the tests were likely part of a plan to more broadly restrict access to the global internet in Russia.

• Biden commuted the sentences of 1,500 people who were placed in home confinement.
• He also pardoned 39 Americans convicted of nonviolent crimes.
• Biden will continue to look at clemency petitions in the weeks ahead.

President Joe Biden on Thursday commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 people and pardoned 39 in the biggest single-day act of clemency in modern history.

The commutations applied to around 1,500 prisoners who were transferred to home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic and who have successfully reintegrated into society.

They have "shown that they deserve a second chance," Biden said.

Biden also pardoned 39 people convicted of nonviolent crimes, The White House said.

It did not give the names of the people involved but said those granted clemency include a decorated military veteran who helped church members, a nurse who helped COVID-19 vaccine rollout efforts, and an addiction counselor.

"The President has issued more sentence commutations at this point in his presidency than any of his recent predecessors at the same point in their first terms," it added.

Barack Obama set the previously single-day record on his last day in office in 2017, after commuting the sentences of 330 inmates.

President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, issued 237 clemency orders during his first term in office, which the Pew Research Center said was among the lowest numbers of recent presidents. He issued 80% in his last months in office.

The orders announced Thursday, the White House said, "help reunite families, strengthen communities, and reintegrate individuals back into society."

Biden said he would continue to look at clemency petitions in the weeks ahead.

The move comes after Biden's decision to issue a full and unconditional pardon of his son Hunter.

Biden had previously insisted he would not use his pardon power to protect Hunter Biden from the verdicts in his cases. He addressed his change of heart in a statement, saying that politics has "infected" the justice system.

• China is limiting the sale of key drone components to the West, Bloomberg reported.
• The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January.
• It comes amid China's escalating trade dispute with the US.

China is limiting the export of critical components used in drones by Ukraine in its war against Russia's invasion, Bloomberg reported.

Multiple people with knowledge of the development told the publication that China is curbing the sale of drone parts to the US and Europe.

The report said Chinese manufacturers have limited the delivery of parts such as motors, batteries, and flight controllers, or stopped shipments completely.

The curbs may form part of a wider ban on drone components that could be announced in January, Bloomberg added.

The moves come amid escalating diplomatic and trade disputes with the US.

The US has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's campaign in Ukraine, and last week restricted the sale of sophisticated chips to China used in military technology and AI.

Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump has threatened a new trade war with China when he takes office in January.

In response, China has halted exports to the US of items relating to minerals and metals that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.

"The US has broadened the concept of national security, politicizing, and weaponizing trade and technology issues, and abused export control measures," China's commerce ministry said in a statement at the time, adding that the measures are effective immediately and are being implemented to "safeguard national security."

Flying drones, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), have been time crucial to Ukraine in holding back the Russian invasion, with cheap models made in Ukraine used for surveillance or fitted with explosives and used as bombs.

China's export restrictions are reportedly impacting Ukraine's capacity to make cheap drone domestically, as well as restricting the production of more sophisticated drones for firms in Europe and the US.

China is the dominant player in the global drone market, controlling around 70% of global drone markets, according to reports.

The restrictions could lead to intensified competition from Japan, Korea, and other economic rivals over the drone market, Keegan McBride, a researcher at the Oxford Internet Institute who studies tech policy, told Bloomberg.

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK did not immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.

• Rebels toppled the Assad regime in Syria after a brutal 13-year civil war.
• Once again, the region's power dynamics have been dramatically reshaped.
• And there are risks and opportunities for the US.

In a lightning two-week campaign that shocked the world, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group deposed Bashar Assad, the longtime ruler of Syria.

President Joe Biden cautiously welcomed Assad's removal on Sunday, calling it a "moment of historic opportunity."

With Assad gone, there is a lot at stake for the US, and analysts warn that it must work carefully to further its goals in the region, and avoid the country collapsing into chaos.

Burcu Ozcelik a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the UK's Royal United Services Institute think tank, said Assad's defeat presents the US with an opportunity to further its longtime goal of denting Iranian regional power.

"With the overthrow of Assad, Iran has been dealt a strategic blow, meeting overarching US objectives to diminish and dismantle Iran's so-called axis of resistance," she said.

But Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding, said that since the Arab Spring of 2011, the US has had no diplomatic relations with Syria, and its role in the country in recent years has largely been limited to defeating ISIS.

This means it is still figuring out how to handle the situation.

"All of a sudden, I think they're dusting down documents," he said of the US.

A divided country

When the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, it quickly became a brutal struggle for power between rebel militias, government forces, and their powerful foreign backers, including the US, Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

The US provided training and support for some rebel groups, notably Kurdish militias and moderate groups, but stopped short of direct involvement in the conflict.

When Islamic State militia seized swaths of northeastern Syria in 2014, and used it as a base for terror attacks in the West, the US led an international campaign to destroy the group.

But it's played a largely limited role in the country since, and has around 900 troops in the northeast, whose task is to quash IS operations and defend the US' Kurdish allies.

This could limit its ability to play a larger role now.

Developing ties

Andreas Krieg, a Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London, told BI that the US will likely limit its role to a "low-level campaign" fighting ISIS until a new authority is in place in Syria.

One key goal for the US will be to help restore order, defend its allies, and prevent another brutal power struggle among rival militias and religious groups that could spill over into neighboring countries.

According to Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, the end of Assad's rule has led to a "significant security vacuum" that extremist groups could exploit to regroup and expand.

Against that backdrop, the "caretaker government may struggle to deliver basic services," worsening the already dire humanitarian situation, he said.

On top of that, he said the US will likely have to contend with Iran and Russia as they seek to rebuild influence. Both countries will likely act "swiftly" to strike favorable deals with emerging power brokers in Syria, he said.

"Without effective coordination, this could spiral into another civil war."

Iran's power damaged

For years, Iran helped prop up the Assad regime, providing vital economic and military support during the civil war.

With Assad gone, Iran's "Axis of resistance" of states and militias whose mission is to eradicate US regional influence and destroy Israel looks much weaker, according to the Royal United Services Institute's Ozcelik.

She added: "As the dust settles, Iran will seek to carve out a reformed role for itself in a post-Assad Syria in the months and years to come, but for now, Tehran is weakened in its foreign policy adventurism and reputation in the Middle East."

Russia has also suffered a defeat with the overthrow of Assad.

Russian forces played a key role in rolling back advances by rebels when Russia entered the conflict in 2015. According to reports, Assad and his family have taken refuge in Moscow.

With Assad gone, Russia may have lost access to strategically vital military bases in Syria.

Who will take over?

Speculation is swirling on who will take power in the vacuum left by Assad's deposal.

Among the key contenders is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia that played a central role in defeating Assad, and who fought alongside an Al Qaeda affiliate during the US occupation of Iraq.

The HTS — a militant group designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the United Nations — has controlled Syria's northwestern Idlib Province, where analysts say it worked to consolidate power and transform its image while pursuing its ultimate goal of toppling Assad.

But the group's roots as an affiliate of the terrorist group al Qaeda will likely be of concern in Washington, which has a $10 million bounty on the head of al-Jolani that US officials are now reportedly discussing removing.

"The terrorist designation of HTS and al-Jolani's own violent legacy in Iraq against American troops makes him far from an ideal partner for peace from the perspective of Western policymakers," said Ozcelik.

In a post on Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump said the US should stay out of the conflict.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project, an international organization formed to combat the threat from extremist ideologies, said the main US concerns revolve around whether the HTS would seek stable governance, or continued insurgency.

"Some aspects of their rule in Idlib have been exclusionary and tyrannical," he said, "yet they claim to have cut ties with Al-Qaeda and to embrace diversity (Christians, Kurds, etc.) as part of Syria's identity."

Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Kent, meanwhile, said he struggles to see how Washington could work with al-Jolani directly unless he completely abandons his jihadist rhetoric and animosity toward Israel.

"Jolani is associated with al Qaeda and throughout much of his 'career' has expressed staunch anti-American and anti-Western views," he said.

However, he said another risk is that Syria breaks into territories controlled by competing militias and warlords, which he said would turn Syria into a potential base for terrorist activities.

From a US perspective, that would arguably be far worse.

• Russia last month suffered record casualties, according to UK intelligence.
• A US think tank said replacing the dead and injured with new recruits is not sustainable.
• It added that Western military support remains vital to Ukraine's war effort.

Russia will struggle to replace the increasing numbers of troops lost to death and injury on the frontline if the West continues to back Ukraine, a US think tank said.

The Russian military in November suffered record casualties, with around 1,500 troops killed or injured daily, as it pushed back the Ukrainian military in east Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, according to UK military intelligence.

The figures from the UK's Ministry of Defence said that Russia suffered 45,690 casualties in November, the fourth consecutive month in which its casualties have increased.

The Institute for the Study of War said on Thursday that the staggeringly high cost of deaths and injuries isn't sustainable.

"Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate," said the analysts in their daily update on the progress of the war.

Petro Chernyk, a Ukrainian military observer, told ArmyInform on December 3 that Russia has boosted its recruitment rates to around 42,000 a month.

However, it will need to increase that to 50,000 a month if it is to continue its advances in Donetsk sustaining its current casualty rates.

At the same time, Russia is suffering an acute domestic workforce shortage. Reuters reported in November that increasing numbers of workers are being pulled into Russia's growing defense sector, meaning that swaths of the economy are struggling to find staff.

High inflation and sanctions are compounding Russia's economic woes.

The Kremlin is offsetting its high losses in Ukraine by offering recruits relatively lucrative contracts and boosting ranks with prisoners and foreign fighters.

But Russia can't both replace its troops lost in Ukraine, and solve its workforce crisis, said the ISW.

"Russians can either serve in uniform in Ukraine, or work in Russia's domestic economy, but they cannot do both simultaneously," its analysts said.

Weapons from Western allies have been vital in enabling Ukraine to inflict massive casualty rates on Russia, even as severe manpower shortages of its own mean that it's struggling to hold off intensifying Russian attacks.

Russia has also been sending troops into head-on, high-casualty attacks, known as human wave or "meat grinder" attacks, which have contributed to a high casualty count.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to bring peace to Ukraine and has been critical of US support for Ukraine. His new Ukraine envoy nominee, Keith Kellogg, has previously suggested that US aid to Ukraine could be cut if Kyiv didn't enter into peace talks with Moscow.

President Joe Biden is seeking to divert as much of the remainder of US aid to Ukraine as possible before Trump takes power in January.

"The continued, regular provision of Western military assistance to Ukraine remains crucial to Ukraine's ability to continue defending against Russian offensive operations and inflicting unsustainable losses on the Russian military in 2025," the ISW said.

• China is flooding the developing world with cheap goods.
• Governments say the imports are undermining domestic industries.
• This could impact China's bid to lead the so-called "global South" of rising non-Western economies.

China is seeking to portray itself as the champion of the world's so-called "Global South" of non-Western rising economies.

But in its quest for influence, it's running up against an obstacle — a rising backlash to its trade practices.

From Indonesia to Brazil, cheap Chinese goods, including electronic vehicles, textiles, and steel, are flooding markets and, critics say, submerging local industries still seeking to recover from the economic downturn linked to COVID-19.

China's exports, meanwhile, are growing at a rate of around 12% in dollar terms year-on-year, according to October trade data, with 50% being sent to the developing world.

"There is significant backlash across the developing world to Chinese trade, lending, and investment practices, a trend that has only been accelerating in post-COVID," Charles Austin Jordan, a senior research analyst on Rhodium Group's China Projects team in Brussels, told Business Insider.

So far this year, Brazil has slapped 35% tariffs on Chinese fiber optic cable, as well as 25% on steel and iron imports, while Indonesia has imposed 200% tariffs on Chinese textile imports.

Thailand, for its part, has established a special government committee to clamp down on Chinese imports after the closure of hundreds of domestic factories, while Peru and Mexico are also imposing anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel.

China brokers trade ties in the developing world

In recent decades, wealthy Western economies have been accused of neglecting their economic and diplomatic ties with the developing world, and China has happily stepped into the gap.

As part of its "Belt and Road" economic initiative, China has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects in Africa, South America, and Asia, growing its political and economic influence.

Meanwhile, consumers in the developing world have benefited from the influx of affordable Chinese goods.

"Undoubtedly, this has been a huge boon to these countries in the short run," said Jordan.

Yet closer integration with the Chinese economy is coming at a cost.

As the economies of developing nations become woven more tightly with China's, the volume of cheap Chinese imports has increased.

And the flood of imports is holding back local industries, some of which are seeking to occupy parts of the global economy they expected China to vacate as it became more advanced, according to a recent report by the Rhodium Group.

The report pointed to areas such as textile and steel manufacturing.

Mingda Qiu, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI that developing countries would prefer promises from China to invest and build up domestic supply chains, rather than simply "flooding their markets with cheap goods."

"China's practices are depriving these countries of benefiting from the very model China used to ascend global value chains," said Jordan. "Industries simply can't compete with the deluge of subsidized Chinese products."

At the same time, critics of Beijing's 'Belt and Road' project are calling on developing nations to resist Chinese influence.

Jonathan Ward, a senior fellow at the Hudson Center in Washington, DC told BI that "developing nations still have the opportunity to retain their sovereignty, economic freedom, and future prosperity — if they push back against the Chinese Communist Party in concert with the United States and if other major economic centers and alternative partners in growth rise across the developing world."

China's dilemma

China has shown no sign of reducing the size of its manufacturing base, or of relinquishing its dominance of global export markets.

Partly, this is because of its own domestic economic woes.

As such, China is counting on its manufacturing and export base, which has long been the core of its economic power. In recent years, it has also been expanding to dominate green technology markets such as solar panels and electronic vehicles.

"China views its position as the center of global value chains as a strategic advantage, and the massive export-oriented manufacturing base provides immense economic benefits in terms of stable employment and technological upgrading," said Jordan.

He added that China believes it can withstand pressure from the West and "thwart retaliation from the developing world" by leveraging its economic and political heft. "There is a high degree of confidence that exports will continue to be a reliable source of growth," he said.

In the meantime, the growing rift with advanced Western economies has made China's exporters more dependent on developing markets.

"The linchpin of China's efforts to offset growing pushback from advanced industrial democracies is increased economic engagement with developing countries," said Ali Wyne, a senior researcher with the Crisis Group in Washington, DC.

He added: "As such, it will face growing pressure to ensure that its exports do not become more of an irritant in its relations across Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia."

There are signs that China is seeking to adapt, emphasizing "small but beautiful" infrastructure projects focused on sustainability and boosting local economies, as well as showcasing a zero-tariff trade policy with some African nations during a summit in September.

Yet the importance it places on its status as a manufacturing powerhouse, and the relative weakness of domestic Chinese demand, means the flow of cheap Chinese goods abroad is unlikely to let up anytime soon.

"Domestic underconsumption and mounting trade tensions with developed countries mean that there is no self-evident solution to its present challenge," said Wyne.

• UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot Wednesday in New York City.
• The words "deny," "defend," and "depose" were found on shell casings at the scene, reports said.
• Officials are investigating whether the words are related to a motive.

Police found the words "deny," "defend," and "depose" on casings from bullets used to kill the UnitedHealthcare executive Brian Thompson on Wednesday in New York City, reports said.

The words were found on casings at the scene in Manhattan, and police are investigating whether they indicate that the motive for the crime was the insurance company's response to a claim, ABC News first reported.

Thompson's wife, Paulette, told NBC on Wednesday that he had spoken to her about receiving death threats she believed were related to a "lack of coverage."

"There have been some threats," she told the network. "Basically, I don't know, a lack of coverage? I don't know details. I just know that he said there were some people that had been threatening him."

A spokesperson for UnitedHealthcare did not immediately respond to requests for comment on a potential link between the shooting and a coverage-denial issue. Paulette Thompson couldn't be reached by BI for comment.

The words on the cases are similar to the title of a 2010 book, "Delay Deny Defend," which is subtitled, "Why Insurance Companies Don't Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It."

The author of the book, Jay M. Feinman, a legal professor who specializes in insurance law, torts, and contract law, declined a request for comment.

Police are still searching for the shooter. Authorities have described the killing as a "targeted attack."

Thompson was gunned down at about 6:45 a.m. outside the Hilton hotel in midtown Manhattan. The shooter fled the scene before police arrived.

UnitedHealthcare is the largest private insurer in the US, and Thompson was in New York for an investor meeting when he was killed.

The "investor day" event was then canceled.

• South Korea was in chaos on Tuesday after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
• Yoon reversed course hours after invoking the law and now faces being impeached.
• South Korea's foe, North Korea, could seek to exploit the turmoil.

Kim Jong Un, North Korea's emboldened leader, is likely watching the events in South Korea closely and may use the turmoil to his benefit.

"We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea's democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul," Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford to CNN.

"We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise," he added.

It comes after South Korea, long one of the US' most important Asian allies, was tipped into political chaos on Tuesday when its president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law.

Yoon reversed course six hours later after lawmakers blocked the declaration. Calls for the president's resignation are now growing.

All six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea's longtime enemy, but it's likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.

How North Korea may respond

North Korea may decide it's "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation," Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US National Intelligence Council, told VOA.

The unrest comes at a time of heightened tensions in East Asia.

South Korea has long been backed by the US, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the republic, in its decadeslong frozen war with North Korea.

But North Korea, fuelled by Russian money and goods after backing the Kremlin's Ukraine invasion, is becoming more assertive and more aggressive.

It's escalating its threats toward South Korea, while ally China menaces US ally Taiwan with invasion.

Meanwhile, the US is seeking to bolster its democratic allies in the region to deter aggression by the axis of authoritarian states. It was reportedly caught off guard by Yoon's declaration on Tuesday but sought to project unwavering support for South Korean security as the turmoil unfolded.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday said the US commitment to South Korean security remained "ironclad."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea] with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Kim could use the crisis to intimidate and undermine its neighbor, and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US, say analysts.

Seiler told VOA that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

It could also take the form of propaganda designed to erode trust in democracy and government stability in South Korea.

US support may act as a deterrent

Not everyone agrees that there will be much action from North Korea, however. For one thing, US support for South Korea may act as a significant deterrent.

"North Korea is very likely to seek to capitalize politically. But the South Korea-US alliance is robust, with the two main political parties and 90% of South Koreans supporting it," Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of Department of European and International Studies at SOAS, told Business Insider.

David Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, told Newsweek that Kim is likely "rubbing his hands with glee" but said he was not in a good position to respond.

"I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea's political system, but not much else," he said.

• Damage to two internet cables caused outages in Finland, GlobalConnect said.
• The overland cables both linked Finland and Sweden, reports said.
• They are the latest cuts to cables in the Baltic region that power the internet.

The severance of two overland fibreoptic cables that carry internet data between Sweden and Finland has raised fears of sabotage.

The damage caused widespread outages in Finland, affecting thousands of households.

Finnish Minister of Transport and Communications, Lulu Ranne, said Tuesday that authorities were investigating the incidents alongside telecomms company GlobalConnect.

"We take the situation seriously," said Ranne.

Niklas Ekström, a spokesman for GlobalConnect, said diggers cutting cables by accident may be to blame.

However, after the recent severance of subsea cables in the Baltic, Sweden said it suspected foul play.

In a statement cited by Reuters, Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said: "Due to the circumstances surrounding what happened, sabotage is suspected."

One of the breaches to cables connecting Finland and Sweden was found in Espoo just west of the capital, Helsinki, while another was found in Vista, northwest of the city, reports said. 

GlobalConnect said one of the breaches was likely caused by excavation, and it's investigating the second, reported Reuters. It said one of the severances had been repaired.

It comes after two subsea cables, one carrying data between Germany and Finland and another between Sweden and Lithuania, were severed in late November. 

At the time, Finnish and German officials said at the time that they suspected the damage was caused by sabotage.

Geopolitical tensions, a lack of clear ownership, and outdated efforts to protect the infrastructure have all led to fears that they could be intentionally damaged by the likes of Russia or China, creating social and economic chaos.

Experts say that as the West has come to rely on the cables as a crucial part of its infrastructure, efforts to safeguard them have not kept pace.

Sweden, which is leading the inquiry into the subsea cable incidents, is investigating a Chinese ship that was near the cables when they were severed. 

• Putin ordered the assassination of Sergei Skripal in the UK in 2018, a UK intelligence chief said.
• Skripal reportedly knew about the Russian president's secret wealth.
• The attempted assassination of Skripal sparked a diplomatic crisis.

Vladimir Putin likely ordered the assassination of former spy Sergei Skripal because he knew about sources of the Russian president's illicit wealth, according to UK officials.

In 2018, Skripal and his daughter Yulia fell ill in Salisbury, UK, after being poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok in an attack the UK government blamed on Russia. Moscow denied any involvement.

The Skripals narrowly survived the poisoning. Police said that Dawn Sturgess and her partner Charlie Rowley in nearby Amesbury became ill after handling a perfume container with traces of Novichok. Sturgess survived while Rowley died.

Speaking at the Dawn Sturgess Inquiry in London, Jonathan Allen, the director general of defense and intelligence at the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, said the order to poison Skripal and his daughter "would have gone to President Putin," according to Politico.

Allen also told the inquiry that he took at "face value" Skripal's claim that he was likely targeted because he knew about the Russian president's sources of wealth, according to the Guardian.

Skripal, a former official with the Russian military intelligence agency the GRU, had reportedly told UK officials that he had information about Putin's involvement in illegal activity regarding the disposal of rare metals and embezzlement of funds from aluminium sales.

"It makes sense that if he [Skripal] was working as a senior member of the GRU he would have access to secret information," Allen said, according to the report.

"There have been numerous open-source works which link senior figures in the government, including the president, to control of natural resources, to control of the sources of Russian wealth and suggestions they profited from those," he added.

Representatives for the Kremlin not immediately respond to a request for comment by Business Insider.

Skripal turned double agent in 1995 when he was recruited by the UK's Secret Intelligence Service, MI6.

A Moscow military court said that he passed information to MI6 agents between 1995 and December 2004. It sentenced him to 13 years in prison for spying for Britain.

He was released in 2010 as part of a spy exchange between Russia and the US, and was granted asylum in the UK, where he lived in Salisbury under his real name.

His poisoning in 2018 sparked a diplomatic crisis, with the UK and 28 other countries expelling hundreds of Russian diplomats, and Russia responding by expelling British diplomats.

Putin's wealth has long been the source of rumor, with reports stating that the Russian president owns vast palaces by the Black Sea and in northern Russia, luxury yachts, and expensive foreign properties.

• Rebels in northern Syria have scored remarkable victories in recent days.
• The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group now controls Syria's largest city, Aleppo.
• It comes as Syria's powerful allies, Iran and Russia, are distracted with other conflicts.

With Russia and Iran distracted by regional conflicts, a stagnant 13-year-long civil war in Syria has exploded into renewed violence.

In a lightning offensive launched last week, rebel groups led by the militant Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by surprise.

They seized control of the city of Aleppo — the first time rebels have controlled the city since 2016 — and pushed further south toward the city of Hama.

It's the most intense outbreak of fighting in the war since Syrian government forces, backed by Iran and Russia, drove rebels back to their strongholds in the north eight years ago, and a stalemate developed.

Syrian government forces and their Russian allies are battling to hold back the offensive, with Russia launching airstrikes on Aleppo and the western city of Idlib on Sunday as Syrian government forces regroup, according to monitoring group The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The offensive comes with the powerful allies who've helped prop up Assad's government for years distracted and embroiled in costly wars of their own.

"He [Assad] was able to survive the civil war because of all the assistance he got, and that's gone," Joshua Landis, head of the Middle East studies program at the University of Oklahoma, told The New York Times.

"Israel has changed the balance of power in the region by going on this all-out war on the axis of resistance."

"Now Assad is all alone," he said.

There have long been signs that violence may erupt. Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, wrote this month that the "frozen" conflict in Syria was fraying at the seams.

"Assad's regime is arguably weaker and more vulnerable than ever before — with a broken economy, a destroyed infrastructure, a divided nation, a security apparatus ruled by organized crime, and no light at the end of the tunnel," he said.

Iran and its powerful Lebanese proxy Hezbollah provided Syrian government forces with crucial financial and military support as the rebellion that swept Syria in 2011 erupted into a brutal civil war.

It came as part of the "Arab Spring" rebellions that overthrew governments in Tunisia and Egypt in the early 2010s and appeared poised to depose the Assad regime.

The Iranian government has long seen Syria as one of its crucial regional allies and has been determined not to let rebel groups, some backed by rivals Turkey and the Gulf states, topple it.

But Iran is now embroiled in a costly confrontation with Israel, its longtime regional foe.

In the wake of the October 7, 2023, attack by Iranian proxy Hamas, Israel has devastated the militant group in its enclave in Gaza and badly weakened Hezbollah in attacks in Lebanon, where a fragile truce was recently brokered.

Israel has also launched direct attacks on Iran in October, reportedly striking sites connected to Iran's nuclear program, in response to massive Iranian missile attacks on Israel.

It's a situation that has placed the region on the brink of an all-out war and means that Tehran can little afford to become embroiled in another costly conflict in Syria.

Meanwhile, Russia, whose 2015 entry into the Syrian Civil War was crucial in propping up the Assad regime, has problems of its own.

Its four-year invasion of Ukraine has come at a vast cost in manpower, military equipment, and economic prosperity.

International sanctions have dented the oil and gas exports the country relies on, and it's also unlikely to desire the distraction of another Syrian campaign.

As rebels seek to exploit Assad's weaknesses, it may not be a conflict they have the luxury of ignoring.

• Donald Trump has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine.
• However, analysts say it relies on Ukraine being in a position of strength.
• Trump allies have questioned US support for Ukraine.

Donald Trump may be more likely to get a peace deal from Russia if he places Ukraine in a position of strength, according to analysts.

The President-elect has said his priority is to end the war in Ukraine and stop what he believes is a drain on US military resources.

On Wednesday, he selected retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, where he'll likely lead the drive to broker peace talks.

It's a move that may concern the US' European allies, with Kellogg previously having suggested handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Military and political leaders in Europe are warning that a deal that hands too much to Russia will likely just be a prelude to further conflict.

Analysts told Business Insider that a meaningful peace deal can only be brokered by backing Ukraine and ensuring it can negotiate from a position of strength.

John Lough, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said abandoning Ukraine could make Trump appear weak and embolden the US's main global competitors.

"If he abandons Ukraine and says, 'I'm not going to fund this anymore, the US doesn't need this,' and as a consequence, the Russians make a strategic advance in Europe, and take a further step to dismantle the US-led security order in Europe, that would undoubtedly look weak," said Lough.

Instead, say experts, Ukraine must be placed in a position to deter Russia.

In recent months, Russia has exploited Ukraine's lack of manpower and artillery, making significant advances in east Ukraine.

At the same time, it's intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's cities and infrastructure, with one million civilians without power after strikes this week.

Kellogg's position is more complex than that of President Joe Biden, who backed arming Ukraine to push Russia back and left it up to Kyiv to decide when to negotiate.

Instead, Kellogg argues that Ukraine's aid should be cut if it refuses to negotiate with the Kremlin, but US aid to Ukraine should be boosted if Russia won't take part in talks.

Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute in Washington, DC, in an interview with CNN Wednesday warned that Putin has little incentive to seek peace with Ukraine if he believes support for Kyiv is weakening.

"If President Trump is credible in basically threatening to provide Ukraine with what it needs to retake territory and to hold on to the Russian territory, then that puts pressure on Putin because this war is not popular in Russia," said Farkas.

"So every day he has to wait, and if he thinks that Ukraine now has time on its side, meaning President Trump will back Ukraine, he will then be more motivated to seek a deal."

Ultimately, achieving a lasting peace deal in Ukraine will depend on deterring Russia, not on walking away.

"Any deal is still going to involve US support in some form to keep the peace. Ukraine needs to maintain effective armed forces to deter further Russian aggression," said Lough.

• Trump has boasted about his chemistry with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
• The President-elect likely believes he can cajole and pressurize the dictator again.
• But this time North Korea's more powerful, and Kim has options.

Donald Trump has long reminisced about the unlikely bromance he formed with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un while president.

On the campaign trail, he claimed the North Korean leader missed him and said that relations would improve once he returned to power.

Kim hasn't been so enthusiastic. At a defense expo in Pyongyang this week, he accused the US of an "unchanging aggressive and hostile policy" toward North Korea that has placed the world in the "most chaotic and violent" state since World War II.

His comments suggest that Trump will find Kim a much tougher and more emboldened character to deal with this time around.

The stakes couldn't be higher, with North Korea providing Russia with vital support for its war in Ukraine, and menacing its neighbors with rhetoric and weapons tests.

"Trump comes into his second term with a weaker hand than he had in 2017," Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with the Eurasia Group, focused on China and northeastern Asia, told Business Insider.

A relationship gone sour 

Trump is seeking to gear up his relationship with Kim again, with Reuters reporting Wednesday that he will likely seek new direct talks when he takes office.

However, Kim has long harbored a grudge against the President-elect, according to Bruce Bennet, an analyst with the RAND Corporation.

The grudge goes back to the 2019 Hanoi conference with Trump, where the pair engaged in one of the first face-to-face meetings between a North Korean leader and US president in history. There, Kim overplayed his hand, and Trump walked out.

"Kim was furious and many of his people who had helped arrange the meeting paid severe prices," said Bennet.

"I think it is unlikely that Kim Jong-un will meet with Trump, even if Trump pursues that possibility unless Trump is prepared to offer some serious concessions before the meeting."

Kim breaks North Korea's isolation

As Trump returns to power, the world is a more complex and dangerous place, and Kim has profited.

Back in 2017, when Trump took office, North Korea faced almost total international isolation as the UN imposed sweeping sanctions to pressure the state to dismantle its nuclear program. 

Sanctions were a powerful tool as Trump sought to place further "maximum pressure" on Kim. 

That's no longer the case. Kim has leveraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine to break North Korea's isolation, brokering a deal with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

In exchange for thousands of North Korean troops and millions of artillery rounds for his Ukraine invasion, Putin has provided North Korea with food, oil, and technology.

Meanwhile, Russia has used its permanent place on the UN Security Council to stymie the sanctions enforcement program.

Since Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion, Kim has also been taking bigger risks, said Chan, aggressively confronting longtime foe South Korea and menacing the US and its allies with long-range missile tests.

Trump has pledged to end the Ukraine war, possibly by handing Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Critics say a lenient position on Russian aggression further emboldens North Korea.

"It will be interesting to see how the new administration reconciles a more lenient position on Russian aggression —now enabled by North Korean troops and material — with continued efforts toward the rollback of the North Korean nuclear program," said Daniel Salisbury, a visiting research fellow at the Centre for Science & Security Studies at King's College London.

Trump's gambit 

The President-elect does have some advantages in dealing with North Korea's leader — not least his oft boasted of "chemistry."

"Trump is more likely to use carrots than sticks to achieve his strategic goals on the Korean Peninsula. This means resuming direct leader-to-leader diplomacy with Kim, with whom he has always enjoyed a strong rapport," said Chan. 

Trump's pledge to end the Ukraine war could work to his advantage, reducing Russian dependence on North Korea and leading the state to find itself once again isolated. 

A deal between Trump and Kim appears to be a long shot, but it's just about possible, said Chan.

Trump could stop short of demanding the denuclearization of North and instead broker a "freeze" on nuclear development and weapons tests. 

In return, Trump could offer Kim sanctions relief and a reduction of US troops in South Korea.

"Kim likely sees in Trump a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to remake his country's relationship with the US, and thereby the wider world," said Chan.

"The potential to achieve his strategic goal of winning recognition as a nuclear state while coming in from the international cold will likely be too great for Kim to pass up, particularly as the Ukraine war winds down."

The nuclear option

Others remain skeptical of Kim's willingness to do business with Trump after the 2019 humiliation.

Trump may have to abandon the flattery and return to the threats and pressure.

For Bennet, the realistic options available to Trump could come down to military pressure and information warfare. 

One option is to modernize the nuclear weapons facilities in South Korea the US abandoned in 1991. Another is to launch an information warfare campaign inside North Korea.

Ultimately, events in Ukraine will determine whether Kim wants a new rapprochement.

Neither maximum pressure nor flattery "may not work until the Ukraine war comes to an end," Ellen Kim, a senior fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI.

"We have to see how North Korea's relationship with Russia evolves."

• Russia is intensifying its use of drone attacks against Ukraine.
• It's using decoy drones to outwit Ukrainian defenses, according to the ISW.
• Around half the drones used to attack Ukraine are decoy drones, a report said.

Russia is stepping up its use of decoy drones to distract Ukrainian air defenses in mass aerial attacks, according to The Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It comes as both Ukraine and Russia ratchet up their drone and missile strikes.

In the latest attack, Russia launched a record 188 Shahed drones at Ukraine on Monday night and early Tuesday, Ukraine said.

The ISW, a Washington, DC-based think tank that monitors the conflict, said that Ukraine reported around half of the drones used in the attack had gotten lost.

This, said the ISW's analysts, suggests that "Russian forces likely used a large number of decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses."

It said that Russia "will likely continue to use decoy drones and experiment with varying strike packages to increase the effectiveness of long-range strikes against Ukraine ahead of and during the winter."

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its aerial attacks on Ukraine, likely with the goal of debilitating Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the cold winter months.

Ukraine uses a mixture of air defense missile systems and electronic warfare technology to counter the attacks.

But Russia has used a variety of tactics to overcome Ukrainian air defenses, striking Ukraine with a variety of drones and missiles at the same time and using decoys to create holes to exploit.

The Associated Press in November found that Russia was using swarms of fake drones to surround deadly thermobaric drones, which are highly destructive.

A source, described as familiar with a secret Russian munitions factory where the drones are made, told the outlet that around half the drones now targeting Ukraine are decoys.

The thermobaric drones create a high-pressure vortex capable of penetrating thick walls and causing injuries including collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, and brain damage, the AP said.

It's unclear if thermobaric drones were among the weapons used in the strikes on November 25-26.

• Western allies are reported to be adopting the "Danish model" to fund Ukraine's arms industry.
• Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Lithuania have provided money in this way, The Wall Street Journal said.
• Those in favor say it will help make Ukraine self-sufficient in the long term.

Ukraine's European allies, hampered by low military production capacity, have been struggling to produce the weapons needed for Kyiv to fight against Russia.

An increasing number are now financing Ukrainian government contracts with Ukrainian weapons manufacturers to make up the shortfall, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The move has been termed the "Danish Model" after Denmark began giving Ukraine aid to boost its defense manufacturing capacity earlier this year.

Those in favor of the model say Ukraine is able to create weapons better suited to its needs at a lower cost than Western countries, the Journal reported.

Ukraine already has a strong weapons manufacturing industry. An Institute for the Study of War report said Ukraine's defense industry employed 300,000 workers within about 500 different companies in 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last month that the country's defense companies could now produce 4 million drones annually.

By contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this year that Moscow intended to ramp up drone production tenfold to about 1.4 million a year.

"Ukraine was the heart of the Soviet defense industrial base, so they have a lot of know-how when it comes to manufacturing complex systems," Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment's Russia and Eurasia program, told the Journal.

Supporting Ukraine's defense industry lets the West help ensure Ukraine is self-sufficient, he added.

Last week, Denmark made a new donation of $138 million for the development of Ukraine's arms industry, Reuters reported.

Sweden, Lithuania, and Norway have also recently provided money in this way, and other nations could soon follow, the Journal reported.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed frustration with delays in military aid from Ukraine's Western allies, on whom it's dependent for advanced weapons such as Patriot and Storm Shadow missiles.

"Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year," he told Reuters in May.

As Business Insider's Sinéad Baker reported earlier this week, the West has focused on the quality of military equipment over stockpiles, prioritizing high-tech and specialized gear over volume.

But the Ukraine war has shown that both are needed. That has prompted a surge in weaponry manufacturing that some experts fear will still fall short.

Russia has also sourced weapons, troops, and ammunition from allies, with North Korea having provided about 8 million artillery shells and about 10,000 soldiers.

The US has meanwhile accused China of providing dual-use goods for Russia's military industry to overcome sanctions. Reuters reported in September that Russia also had a drone factory in China for the war.

Russia's advantages in manpower and equipment have enabled it to make slow but important gains in east Ukraine in recent weeks.

• The comments were made by Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state.
• China may fear the alliance could bring US allies in East Asia closer together.
• North Korea is providing crucial support to Russia in Ukraine, and is getting favors in return.

China is increasingly concerned about the alliance between Kim Jong Un's North Korea and Vladimir Putin's Russia, according to Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state.

The US believes that more than 11,000 North Korean troops have deployed to Kursk in Russia, where Putin is attempting to take back territory that Ukrainian forces captured.

Meanwhile, Russia is providing North Korea with economic and diplomatic support.

"The topic that is becoming increasingly uncomfortable for Chinese interlocutors is the DPRK [North Korea] engagement with Russia," Campbell said at a talk for the Center for Strategic and International Studies last week, according to The Guardian.

"In some of the discussions we have had, it seems we are informing them of things that they were unaware of with regard to DPRK pursuits, and they are concerned that Russian encouragement might lead the DPRK to contemplate either actions or military actions that might not be in China's interests."

He added that China has not directly criticized Russia, "but we do believe that the increasing coordination between Pyongyang and Moscow is unnerving them," he said.

Russia and North Korea are among China's closest international allies, but analysts say Beijing is wary of the potential impact of an alliance between the authoritarian powers.

The support Russia is giving North Korea could upset the delicate balance of power on the Korean peninsula, where North and South Korea have for decades been locked in a frozen conflict.

South Korea has already threatened to hand weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea's support for Russia, and the tensions could spill into East Asia.

The Russia-North Korea alliance could weaken China's influence in East Asia, and draw US allies in the region closer together.

Some observers also believe that President-elect Donald Trump could seek to drive a wedge between China and Russia, the US' two most powerful rivals, when he takes office in January.

"China likely regards deepening ties between Russia and North Korea with some wariness," Ali Wyne, an analyst with the Crisis Group, told Business Insider in June.

"It worries about the possibility of Russia's providing military assistance that could advance North Korea's nuclear and missile programs."

However, China has considerable leverage over both Russia and North Korea. It provided the Kremlin with crucial economic and diplomatic support in the Ukraine war and has maintained close economic and political ties with North Korea for decades.

If it chose, it could likely use that leverage to restrain the North Korea-Russia alliance, say experts.

Others believe that the alliance benefits China. "Officially, they might not really welcome it; they might see it as an alarming situation," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, previously told BI.

"But the Chinese are waiting for an opportunity where North Korea, Russia, and China can come stronger together, and I think North Korea sending the troops to Russia is a testimony to that."

Panda said that China's strategic goal is to build an authoritarian nexus that would undermine the current world order. The growing alliance between North Korea and Russia, he said, is a step toward that.

• President-elect Trump said he can bring peace to Ukraine.
• But a deal is unlikely to last unless Ukraine gets security guarantees.
• It's unclear what, if any, guarantees Trump would back.

In the wake of Donald Trump's election victory, momentum is building behind the president-elect's pledge to end Russia's two-year war in Ukraine once he takes office.

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week indicated he's willing to take part in negotiations.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also sounding more receptive to talks. Last week, he said that Ukraine must do all it can to end the conflict next year through diplomacy.

However, experts are warning that a deal could be fragile unless Trump backs it with guarantees for Ukrainian security.

"Given its own track record in Ukraine, Russia has a history of taking 'a crunch at a time,'" Paul Cormarie, a policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, told BI.

In 2014, Russia annexed swaths of east Ukraine and the Crimea peninsula. In 2022, it launched its campaign to conquer even more of the country. It now occupies around 20% of Ukraine's territory. 

"A lasting agreement would necessarily have to include reinforcing and sustaining Ukraine's posture in order to credibly deter Russia from taking another crunch," said Cormarie. 

Ukraine NATO deal in doubt 

The details of a prospective Trump peace deal in Ukraine are unclear, but they don't appear likely to include support for Ukraine joining the NATO alliance that could best guarantee its security.

Putin has said that as a condition of any peace deal, Ukraine must agree to remain neutral.

And comments before the election by JD Vance, Trump's running mate, suggested that Trump might agree to the demand, with Vance remarking that Russia would get a "guarantee of neutrality" from Ukraine as part of a likely deal.  

The plan may appear to neatly sidestep the issue that some claim lies behind Russia's Ukraine invasion: Preventing the eastward expansion of NATO. 

Critics, however, say that such a deal could further embolden Putin and ignores the fact that the Russian president's real motive is imperialist conquest.

In the Kyiv Independent in October, Timothy Ash, a fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, said Ukraine was effectively neutral until Russia's first invasion in 2014. 

"Its military weakness and neutrality were a green light for Russian President Vladimir Putin to annex and invade Ukrainian territory," he wrote.

"It's hard to imagine such a status would deter Putin from attacking again. The only assurance against further Russian aggression is a strong defense, ideally in alliance with Western partners."

What would a security deal look like? 

If Trump takes Ukrainian NATO membership off the table, a different type of security deal could still be negotiated, said Cormarie. 

Ukraine's European allies could take a leading role in helping defend the country.

Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's foreign minister, told the Financial Times this week that troops from Ukraine's European allies could be deployed to the country to deter Russian attacks as part of a Trump-brokered deal. 

Cormarie said another option would be to massively boost Ukraine's capacity to defend itself from attack through a US foreign military financing program. 

Since 2014, Ukraine has overhauled its military, and now has an expanding military industrial sector, producing equipment ranging from missiles to sophisticated drones. 

But it's a weak substitute for support from the world's most powerful military alliance.

A truce containing a watered-down security deal for Ukraine would likely only mean a pause in the war while Russia regathers its strength. 

"The less strong these commitments are, the more likely this agreement would only be a truce before Moscow takes another 'bite' in the eyes of Kyiv," Cormarie added.