• Small-business optimism may rise after Trump's election win, potentially boosting hiring intentions.
• Optimism surged post-2016 election, with small businesses planning to hire more employees.
• Improved labor market conditions could enhance consumer sentiment and boost wages.

Welcome to the vibe-spansion.

Yes, that's a portmanteau of vibes and expansion, and it's the upbeat version of its better-known cousin, the vibecession.

The term vibecession, a play on the word recession coined by content creator Kyla Scanlon, has been used to describe how people have felt about the economy for the last few years. While the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't declared an official recession during that time, as there's been no significant decline in employment and consumer spending, inflation and a floundering job market have left consumers feeling downcast about the economy.

That could be about to shift.

That's because the optimism of small-business owners, and their intentions to hire more employees, are probably set to rise after Donald Trump's win in the presidential election earlier this month, with the president-elect promising to cut taxes and regulations.

"Small business owners lean Republican," said Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a November 12 note.

Numbers from the National Federation of Independent Businesses' November survey aren't in yet, but the 2016 election period saw a substantial shift in small-business optimism. Even with higher interest rates and a slightly slowing economy, one would expect some sort of positive jolt to outlooks, experts say.

"After Donald Trump was elected the 45th President in November 2016, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) small business optimism index skyrocketed. It was truly a reflection of 'animal spirits' coming to life and this behavior is likely to be repeated," Goldman Sachs' Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin wrote in a November 18 client note. "We expect an improving small business operating environment will boost the sentiment and spending of SMBs in 2025 and lift the earnings and valuation of stocks with revenues tied to that spending."

Admir Kolaj, an economist at TD Economics, agrees.

"Although the economy is on different footing now and facing a different set of challenges, we anticipate we're likely to see an improved mood among small business owners to cap off the year," he said in a November 12 note.

NFIB data shows that optimism bleeds through to concrete actions. Hiring intentions also jumped after the 2016 election, and they have tracked closely with actual job openings.

Of course, job openings had already been on the rise in the years leading up to 2016, while they are falling today. But the expected jump in optimism, and the presumptive knock-on effect in hiring intentions, could turn that around.

With inflation having cooled off and interest rates starting to fall, more job opportunities flooding the market could be what consumers need to feel better about the economy.

When there are more jobs available, the labor market becomes more employee-friendly, and workers are able to command higher wages. Higher pay could help consumers feel like they're finally able to get ahead, assuming it doesn't fuel higher inflation again with many of the pandemic supply chain hurdles now out of the way.

Workers will also feel less trapped in their current jobs when openings are more abundant, according to Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor. About two-thirds of workers feel "stuck," he said. With openings falling since 2022, the number of quits has dropped dramatically.

"Once the job market heats up again, that will open a relief valve to release the bottled up pressure, by giving workers the option to quit in favor of better options on the market," Zhao wrote in a November 19 report. "For the time being, employers may be benefiting from unusually low turnover rates, but they shouldn't be complacent—a wave of revenge quitting is on the horizon."

The turnaround may not be easy. Unemployment has been trending upward, and the tough credit environment for small businesses may mean that continues. Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff proposals could also hamper hiring and business investment.

But the idea that a rosier outlook from small-business owners could boost labor conditions is plausible. The past data is there to support it. Whether the post-election bump in optimism will be enough to spark a hiring spree and improve consumers' attitudes this time around will become evident in the months ahead.

The vibe-spansion could be upon us.

• As many Americans struggle with a high cost of living, Gen X is in a particularly tight spot.
• Aged 44-59, the generation hasn't experienced millennials' wealth spike or baby boomers' pensions.
• Gen X has the highest income of all, but also the highest debt.

America's generational middle child is feeling the squeeze.

A growing subset of Gen Xers — who were born between 1965 and 1980, and are 44 to 59 years old — are struggling to pay their bills, picking up additional work, and cutting down spending on necessities, a new Philadelphia Fed survey shows.

That doesn't leave much space for discretionary spending, which could be adding to their lagging sentiment.

Meanwhile, the generations on either side are faring well. Millennials have seen a wealth boom in recent years driven by real estate and stock market returns, and baby boomers also have their pensions.

While Gen X saw their own gains from stock and real estate booms, they're also still stuck in an expensive middle-age phase, dealing with their own debts, preparing for retirement, and shouldering the burden of their children and parents.

Gen Xers have the highest income and highest debt as they navigate the 'sandwich' phase of life

Gen Xers are struggling with their personal finances across a variety of measures, a survey of around 5,000 respondents from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found.

As of October 2024, a quarter of Americans 46 to 55 were skipping some debts or monthly bills.

For some Gen Xers, that might mean skipping out on spending on some of life's more enjoyable things. Since the Philadelphia Fed's LIFE survey first began, the share of 46 to 55-year-olds cutting back on discretionary spending has grown. As of October 2024, over half of that surveyed age group said they were cutting back on discretionary spending.

"I rarely go out or buy new things or nice things. I usually shop for clothes secondhand, and the expenses that I'm really worried about — and they're just increasing — are my medical expenses," Wendy Graham, a Gen Xer in Philadelphia who works in the nonprofit sector, told BI.

Barbara Lose, a 57-year-old Gen Xer in Florida, said that she is struggling to pay rent; she lost her job over the summer.

"I just want to go through life and have a job where I can make enough money to go out to dinner and have a couple glasses of wine once a week. That's all I want out of life," Lose said. "I want to be able to pay my bills and take myself out to dinner once a week. I don't think that's asking too much, but apparently, it is these days."

Of course, cutting back on discretionary spending may not be all bad. As a Bank of America Institute research note finds, Gen X has seen its discretionary spending drop the most of all generations. The analysis attributes that, in part, to Gen Xers trying to sock away more for retirement and investing more.

Gen Xers do have the highest income of the generations, raking in a mean of $136,776 annually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Surveys found. They also have, on average, $157,556 in total debt — the highest among the generations.

"I'm still to this day paying off student loans," Graham said.

But as Bank of America notes, Gen X is in the "sandwich" phase of life: Some are juggling supporting adult children and elderly relatives. Their sandwich stage comes as more parents are also supporting their young adult children.

"I know a lot of people that are in this situation that are my age, they're really getting squished between having to take care of their children and having to take care of their parents," Graham said. That could be putting pressure on spending on necessities. Nearly a third of Americans ages 46 to 55 were cutting back on essential spending as of October 2024, the Philadelphia Fed's survey found.

"I had to have some dental care done last year. I owe about $800 for that," Graham said. "So there just isn't enough. There's not enough extra to go around, and healthcare costs are just continuing to increase. I don't see any relief from that in the future."

All of those factors taken together might explain another Gen X phenomenon: taking on more work. While 18- to 35-year-olds were still the most likely to say that they took on an additional job as a form of financial coping, the share of 46- to 55-year-olds doing the same has increased by a little over half since January 2023.

"We're still a very adaptable generation," Lose, who's on the hunt for work, said. "I still have a lot of great ideas and energy and willingness to work in this body of mine."

It's no wonder, then, that Gen X's vibes are not so great. Elder millennials' and Gen Xers' consumer sentiment is the lowest among the different age cohorts captured by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey.

Are you a Gen Xer struggling to make ends meet or feeling forgotten? Contact this reporter at [email protected].