China has warned the U.S. that it is making "dangerous moves" by providing Taiwan with an additional $571 million in defense materials, which was authorized by President Biden on Saturday.
In addition to the $571 million approved by Biden, the U.S. Department of Defense announced Friday that $295 million in military sales had been approved for the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
The sales and assistance from the U.S. are intended to help Taiwan defend itself, and possibly deter China from launching an attack.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry released a statement urging the U.S. to stop arming Taiwan and to cease what it referred to as "dangerous moves that undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," according to a report from The Associated Press.
Bidenβs approved $571 million in military assistance includes DoD materials and services along with military education and training for Taiwan. The funds are in addition to another $567 million that the president approved for the same purposes in September.
The $295 million in military sales includes about $265 million for about 300 tactical radio systems and $30 million for 16 gun mounts.
Taiwanβs foreign ministry said in a post on X that the two sales reaffirmed the U.S. governmentβs "commitment to our defense."
Earlier this month, Taiwan defense officials raised concerns about a substantial deployment of Chinese naval ships and military planes, saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the region.
Officials said China had sent about a dozen ships and 47 military planes to regional waters around the Taiwan Strait, as the nation braced for military drills following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-teβs recent overseas trip that included visits to Hawaii and Guam, an American territory.
Lai, who has been in office since May, spoke with U.S. congressional leaders by phone while in Guam.Β
Laiβs visit came weeks after the U.S. approved a potential $2 billion arms sale package to Taiwan, including the delivery of an advanced air defense missile system battle tested in Ukraine and radar systems. The potential package included three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and related equipment valued at up to $1.16 billion, according to the State Departmentβs Bureau of Political-Military Affairs.
The Chinese communist government has pledged to annex Taiwan, through military force if necessary, and sends ships and military planes near the island almost daily.
The U.S. has repeatedly signaled its support for Taiwan through military deals, operations and diplomatic interactions with Taiwanese officials.
Fox News Digitalβs Michael Dorgan and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
While Taiwan has boosted its defense spending, with a record budget next yearΒ of $19.74 billion, China is far larger, both as a country and as a military force.
Chinese military journals "argue that the success or failure of an invasion of Taiwan likely would hinge on whether Chinese amphibious-landing forces are able to seize, hold, and exploit the island's large port facilities," naval analyst Ian Easton wrote in a new book published by the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College.
Chinese analysts worry that Taiwan will turn its ports into fortresses against sea assault.
China is also closely monitoring the effects of Western sanctions on Russia in order to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month, citing people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, Lin Jian, China's foreign ministry spokesman, urged the US on Monday to "stop arming Taiwan" and said the US should stop "supporting Taiwan independence forces," per AFP.
Taiwan's attempt "to seek independence through force and foreign help is doomed to fail," he said, adding: "China will firmly defend its national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity."
The Biden administration's efforts to boost US semiconductor manufacturing and employment could bear fruit during the Trump administration.
During his term, Biden secured commitments from five of the world's leading chip manufacturers βTSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix β to build factories in the US as part of an effort to shore up production of the critical technology.Semiconductor chips power a wide variety of products, including iPhones, pickup trucks, washing machines, and military equipment.
However, many of these factories are still in various stages of construction, and for some, it will be years before they're producing chips. Much of the hiring for manufacturing roles could come under president-elect Donald Trump or a future administration, experts told Business Insider.
Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told Business Insider that the current building of US chip factories has already created construction jobs. However, Koch said that the anticipated boost in semiconductor manufacturing employment hasn't materialized yet.
Koch and Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said manufacturing jobs would likely be realized during the Trump administration.
"The longer it takes to get the funds disbursed and the projects fully underway, then the longer it takes to get to full hiring for construction of the facilities and the operational staffing of them once they're complete," said Ezell, referring to CHIPS Act funding that the five leading chipmakers β in addition to other semiconductor companies β have been allocated from the Biden administration.
The chipmakersare expected to receive some of the $39 billion in manufacturing incentives tied to the CHIPS Act, which President Joe Biden signed into law in 2022. The Biden administration is trying to finalize funding agreements before Trump β who has criticized the CHIPS Act β takes office in January.
The US could see about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobsat chipmakers' suppliers, per a report published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association β a trade association and lobbying group β thatsaid a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US.
To be sure, it's not uncommon for the benefits of a president's policy initiative to see gainsafter the leader leaves office. This is a reality Biden understands.
"Much of the work we've done is already being felt by the American people, but the vast majority will not be felt, will be felt over the next 10 years," Biden said in November about his administration's policies.
Additionally, the construction of chip factories is particularly complicated, and it often takes years for these projects to be completed.
"This is the world's most complex technology," Jimmy Goodrich, senior advisor for technology analysis to the RAND Corporation, said of semiconductors. "You're talking about producing transistors β billions on a single chip β each of them is 20 to 30,000 times smaller than the human hair."
Business Insider reached out to TSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix to confirm the latest status of their US-based chip factories under construction. The table below shows where the chipmakers have committed to building factories in the US. Intel declined to provide estimated completion dates for its four factories.
When reached for comment, the Trump-Vance transition team didn't respond to a question about Trump's plans to boost US semiconductor manufacturing employment.
Building chip factories takes time
Koch said Taiwan-based TSMC began hiring over two years ago. The company is expected to begin full production levels β BI previously reported it already startedmaking chips for Apple β at its first Phoenix factory early next year after facing some delays.
TSMC is projecting that its second and third chip Phoenix-based factories will begin production in 2028 and by the end of the decade, respectively. The second factory was initially slated for a 2026 opening.
Micron, which is based in Boise, Idaho, has five factories in the works β four in Clay, New York, and one in Boise. The Boise factory is expected to begin production in 2026, the company told BI, but Micron's Clay factories have faced some delays.
SK Hynix, which is based in South Korea, expects to begin mass chip production at its West Lafayette, Indiana factory in the second half of 2028. Samsung is projecting that it will begin chip production at its chip factory in Taylor, Texas in 2026. In October, Reuters reported that Samsung has postponed taking deliveries of chipmaking equipment because it has yet to land any major customers for the project.
The Commerce Department said that TSMC, Intel, Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC are "five of the world's leading and most advanced leading-edge logic and leading-edge memory chip manufacturers." The Commerce Department added that building chip factories is a very intensive and complex construction project β and that it often takes three to five years before factories are fully constructed and operational.
While creating US semiconductor manufacturing jobs would be good news for the people who eventually land these roles, Chris Miller, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on semiconductors, told BI that he thinks the Biden administration's main goal was to boost US chip manufacturing. Doing so could help secure US supply chains and make the country less reliant on advanced chips made in Taiwan.
"The point is to have more chip manufacturing, which will mostly come over the next few years," he said.
Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at [email protected].
China's special forces have serious problems that would limit their effectiveness in a Taiwan war.
Chinese manuals suggest these forces would perform the most dangerous missions before landings.
China lacks units with the highest levels of training but their bigger challenge would be coordination.
If China invades Taiwan, China's special forces would be key to its success, the first forces ashore to clear obstacles for inbound troops and then to scout for command centers and air defenses for airstrikes.
China has expanded the ranks of its special operators, but they lack the combat experience and esprit de corps that defines the world's most elite operators β raising questions about their utility in a major operation. Indeed, some commando units have been brought to strength by conscripts.
Special operations forces, or SOF, "likely would play important supporting roles in an amphibious assault on Taiwan," according to analysts John Chen and Joel Wuthnow in a new book published by the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College.
Special forces have long been integral to amphibious warfare. In World War II, US Navy Underwater Demolition Teams scouted beaches and removed obstacles prior to an invasion. In the 1982 Falklands War, the main landing wasn't authorized until British special forces could assess Argentine defenses, even if this required the Royal Navy to sail into the teeth of Argentine air attacks to get within helicopter range of the islands.
China's SOF comprises 20,000 to 30,000 personnel, according to a 2023 U.S. Department of Defense report; US Special Operations Command, by contrast, has 70,000 active and reserve personnel. China's SOF includes 15 army brigades, as well as special operations units in the People Liberation Army Marine Corps, Airborne Corps, and Rocket Force. Even the People's Armed Police (PAP) β a paramilitary organization tasked with internal security β has counterterrorist special operations units that could be used to spearhead an invasion or suppress Taiwanese guerrillas afterwards.
Chinese military manuals suggest that these elite forces would perform the most dangerous missions that start before the main landings. These include "monitoring weather and hydrological conditions; scouting enemy positions and movements, as well as enemy obstructions in the main landing approaches; tracking high-value enemy targets; identifying and illuminating targets for conventional precision-guided missile strikes; and conducting battle-damage assessments," Chen and Wuthnow wrote.
Chinese special forces seem fairly well-trained and have better equipment than regular formations. They have "priority access to modern equipment, such as individual-soldier communications systems and night-vision equipment," wrote Chen and Wuthnow. "They also are likely to have access to special-mission equipment that would be vital in an amphibious assault on Taiwan," such as underwater transport vehicles.
While Western special forces would be horrified at the thought of being assigned conscripts, China does select the better draftees. "Their SOF units do use some conscripts to fill the enlisted ranks as with other parts of the PLA," Wuthnow told Business Insider. "That said, they use rigorous screening and selection procedures to weed out less capable troops. For the PLANMC SOF Brigade, their attrition rate is advertised at 50% or higher in the first three months due to the rigorous training. So it would be considered an honor in their system to be selected and make it through the initial onboarding."
But China's special forces have serious problems that would limit their effectiveness in an assault on Taiwan. Chinese SOF have many differences from their Western counterparts: some brigades converted from conventional formations into commando units as China expanded its special operations capabilities, which lack the elite teams that train for the most complex and difficult missions.
"PLA SOF brigades are similar to our Green Berets, who do conduct unconventional operations, such as direct raids or deep reconnaissance behind enemy lines," Wuthnow said. "What the PLA lacks is what we call Tier One SOF Forces such as Delta Force or Seal Team 6, which conduct exceptionally difficult operations abroad, often in very small or clandestine teams."
"I think they look on our ability to conduct those types of operations with a certain envy, especially because their troops have no similar experience," Wuthnow added.
Special forces units are also supposed to attract soldiers who can take initiative. But Chinese special forces suffer from the same rigid command and control, as well as political monitoring, that hampers China's regular military units, and Russian forces in Ukraine.
"Generally, there is a tension between the Leninist emphasis on centralization and the need to grant autonomy to lower-level PLA commanders," according to Chen and Wuthnow. "This could be especially problematic in special operations; centralized command could lead to poor performance if small units fail to act because of a lack of explicit authorization, or if they are forced to maintain radio communications and thus reveal their positions to the enemy."
Perhaps the biggest problem with Chinese special forces is lack of integration. A proper amphibious invasion is like a Hollywood musical: an intricate, coordinated mix of ground, naval and aerial forces, as well as missiles, drones and information operations. The US military emphasizes joint operations, and China has taken a step toward that by creating five multiservice theater commands.
But for lightly armed commandos infiltrating Taiwan before the main assault on the beaches, tactical integration is key. "The lack of permanent joint structures below the theater level could diminish the effectiveness of joint operations involving special forces, potentially leading to catastrophic results similar to the failed U.S. hostage-rescue attempt in Iran during Operation Eagle Claw," wrote Chen and Wuthnow.
Still, despite their limitations, Chinese special forces could disrupt Taiwanese defenses enough to enable an amphibious assault to succeed. "Even partly effective special operations could hamper Taiwan's defenses and thus should be addressed explicitly in defensive concepts," Chen and Wuthnow warned. The authors recommend that Taiwan "identify PLA weaknesses, such as a lack of technical proficiency, limited jointness, and potential overreliance on radio communications for command and control, and tailor responses accordingly."
"PLA SOF would be integral to any amphibious invasion of Taiwan," said Wuthnow. "They could also be employed in smaller-scale island seizure campaigns such as we might see in the South China Sea. That being said, it's also the case that these troops have essentially no real-world experience and as an untested force would face difficulties in these high-risk missions."
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Mercer's Quality of Living City Ranking 2024 looks at factors such as political stability and healthcare.
There were 12 Asian cities that made it into the top 100 in the rankings this year.
Singapore was the only Asian city to make the top 50.
If you're considering moving to Asia, a new report can help determine which city would be the top choice.
Mercer, a human resource consulting service, recently released its yearly Quality of Living City Ranking, which ranks 241 cities across five continents. The ranking process considers factors such as political stability, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and socio-cultural environment.
In an era of remote work, the ranking also considered the cost of living in different cities.
Mercer said that the most "successful destinations" were those that "blend flexible governance around mobile talent with a high quality of life and an affordable cost of living."
Although many European cities were featured high on the list, with Zurich maintaining its top spot, 12 Asian cities made the top 100 this year. Singapore was the only city in Asia to make the top 50, at 30th position.
Take a look at the top 10 cities in Asia:
10. Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (85th)
Abu Dhabi recently ranked second, with Dubai taking first place, among the most popular locations for executive nomads, according to the Executive Nomad Index by real estate firm Savills.
The capital of the UAE is known for its modern skyline and shopping megacenters. Expats make up more than 80% of its population, per InterNations, a Munich-based expat network.
9. Taipei, Taiwan (85th)
Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, is tied with Abu Dhabi at 85th. Between 2019 and 2021, Taiwan was ranked first out of 59 destinations in the InterNations Expat Insider survey for the job security expats enjoy and the state of the local economy.
"I live a 20-minute bike ride from my office β I never could have afforded anything remotely similar if I'd stayed in New York City," he said.
8. Dubai, UAE (83rd)
Known for its glitzy skyscrapers and modern architecture, Dubai is also an expat hotspot. According to the Dubai Statistics Center, 92% of its 3,655,000-person population are non-Emirati.
Expats in Dubai previously told BI that they liked the city for its convenience and ease of making friends. "There are so many interesting and new people to meet here with different perspectives than we're used to," said Kiran Ali, who relocated to the city with her family earlier this year.
7. Seoul, South Korea (81st)
Seoul, the capital of South Korea, clearly has more to offer than just K-pop. With a population of 9.4 million, the city is popular for expats seeking affordability and a rich culture.
Besides Seoul, Busan was the second city in South Korea to make the top 100, ranking 100th.
6. Hong Kong (76th)
Hong Kong is known for being a global financial center with a thriving food scene. It is also one of the most densely populated cities in the world, with an overall density of around 17,311 people per square mile.
Kaitlyn Cheung, who moved from California to Hong Kong, previously told BI that she was impressed by the country's efficient public transport system and found the city to be diverse. "I routinely made friends from all over the world, which allowed me to broaden my horizons and learn about different cultures," she said.
5. Nagoya, Japan (74th)
Located in the center of Japan, Nagoya is the capital of Japan's Aichi Prefecture with a population of 2.3 million people.
LaJuan, a content creator, moved to a shoebox apartment in the city and pays $230 a month in rent. He appreciates the city's slow and simple pace of life.
"Nagoya, to me, is a perfect balance of both city life and just having some space for yourself," he told BI.
4. Osaka-Kobe, Japan (68th)
Osaka is a port city known for its nightlife and history. It's Japan's second-largest metropolitan area after Tokyo. Kobe, a city known for beef, is 22 miles from Osaka, or just 12 minutes away by the Shinkansen bullet train.
Grace Cheng, who visited Japan 11 times, said Osaka is ideal for foodies. "Whenever I go there, my sole mission is to eat," she told BI, adding that she recommends the city's tonkatsu and takoyaki.
3. Yokohama, Japan (58th)
Located less than 20 miles south of Tokyo, Yokohama is a port city with skyscrapers and is home to Japan's biggest Chinatown.
The district around Yokohama Station earned the top spot for livability in the Greater Tokyo rankings by Recruit Co., a Toyko-based human resource service, for seven consecutive years, per local reports. The same survey found that reasons for wanting to live in the area include the availability of cultural facilities and large-scale shopping complexes.
"Yokohama was so safe that I took public buses by myself at 8 to meet friends in different parts of the city," Alicia Erickson, who moved to the city as a kid, told BI.
2. Tokyo, Japan (56th)
The capital of Japan is home to over 14 million residents and is easily recognized for its neon-lit skyscrapers and busy streets.
David McElhinney, who moved to Tokyo in 2018, was surprised by cultural differences. He added that knowing how to speak a little Japanese goes a long way in the city. "Big cities β especially ones as dynamic, complex, and multifaceted as the Japanese capital β always bring new surprises," he said.
1. Singapore (30th)
Singapore, a small island nation in Southeast Asia, was ranked the highest among Asian cities on the list. Widely hailed as the "most expensive city," Singapore's foreign workforce makes up around 30% of its population of 6 million.
Nick Burns, who transferred from San Francisco to Singapore, said he appreciates the city for its affordable healthcare, safety, and hawker food. "I can't see us leaving anytime soon," he said.
China is studying the effects of Western sanctions on Russia to prepare for any invasion of Taiwan.
Its officials have visited Russian agencies combating sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported.
It also set up an interagency group to provide reports on how to reduce the impact of sanctions.
China is closely monitoring the effects of Western sanctions on Russia in order to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Unnamed individuals told the outlet that China formed an interagency group in the months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Its aim was to provide regular reports on how to reduce the impact of sanctions should the US and its allies impose similar measures on China in the event of an armed conflict over Taiwan.
They also said that Chinese officials regularly travel to Moscow to meet with Russia's central bank, finance ministry, and other institutions involved in combating sanctions.
One unnamed person familiar with China's outreach on sanctions said that Beijing is "very interested in practically everything: from ways of circumventing them to all sorts of positive effects, such as incentives for the development of domestic production."
Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the Journal that Russia is serving as a "sandbox" for China for how sanctions operate and how they should handle them.
"They know that if there is a Taiwan contingency, the tool kit that will be applied against them will be similar," he said.
The US and its allies have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia since the start of the war.
Russia has managed to mitigate some of the effects by turning to intermediaries, bartering, and trading with non-sanctioning countries, including China, India, and Turkey.
Even so, Russia's economy has been heavily impacted by the ongoing conflict and the Western sanctions imposed on it.
Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to a record high of 21% in October to combat inflation, and last month the rubleΒ droppedΒ to a two-year low against the dollar.
Russiancompanies and defense firms have recently said they've scaled back their operations and struggled to turn a profit due to high interest rates and sanctions.
Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that it doesn't surprise him that China is trying to learn from Russia's experience.
"China has always tried to understand how it can avoid Russia's mistakes, at least since the collapse of the USSR, which was very carefully studied in Beijing," he said.
Libman added that China has probably already learned that its economy can adapt to "nuclear" Western sanctions through trading with other countries, adapting production facilities to quick and unpredictable changes of supply lines, and living without access to Western technology.
"Essentially, the experience of the last three years substantially reduced the fear of large authoritarian states with respect to Western sanctions, and this is very concerning," he said, adding that China-Russia economic cooperation would make any future Western sanctions against China less effective.
People close to China's decision-making process told the Journal that the existence of the research group does not suggest the country is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, but rather for the "extreme scenario" of an armed conflict and its economic consequences.
However, some military analysts and defense officials have predicted that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could happen within the next few years.
China's foreign ministry lashed out at the U.S. and Taiwan on Sunday after the U.S. State Department approved a $385 million arms sale to the island.
Chinese officials also criticized the U.S. for approving Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to visit Hawaii and Guam, a U.S. territory. China considers Taiwan to be its sovereign territory and routinely objects to any validation of the island's democratically-elected government.
The arms deal approved late last week sees Taiwan purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of spare parts for F-16 fighter jets as well as components for radars.
Chinese officials said the deal sent the "wrong signal" about relations in the Indo-Pacific. A separate statement said China "strongly condemns" Lai's travel to the U.S.
The U.S. has repeatedly signaled its support for Taiwan through military deals, operations and diplomatic interactions with Taiwanese officials.
Recent years have found a cadence of U.S. officials, such as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, meeting with Taiwanese officials only for Beijing to react with saber-rattling.
Pelosi made a rare trip to the island in 2021, and China reacted by holding live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan. Those drills occurred again in 2023 when then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
President-elect Trump has signaled that his administration will continue America's strong relationship with Taiwan. Trumpβs nominees to serve as United Nations ambassador, national security adviser, and most importantly, secretary of state are regarded by many as "China Hawks."
Trump nominated Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to be secretary of state last month. Rubio has been a leading voice in the Senate for cracking down on China and imposing sanctions.
Rubio has said he will work with Trump to "continue to support Taiwan." He is also allied with Trump on insisting Taiwan increase defense spending, a view shared by security experts, but not necessarily the majority of Taiwanese people.Β
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan must focus on seizing a port to bring in tanks and supplies.
Commercial or industrial ports are prime targets that would allow for rapid offloading.
Taiwan may have the weapons and obstacles to turn its ports into fortresses.
There are two requirements for a major amphibious invasion. The first is storming the beach.
The second is no less important β seizing a port. Without docks and cranes to unload reinforcements β especially armored vehicles β and supplies, everything has to be brought in over the open beach or flown in by helicopter. This can result in a race against time: can the invaders reinforce a large enough beachhead before the defenders try to push them into the sea?
As it contemplates an invasion of Taiwan, China is well aware of this problem. It knows full well that Taiwan will desperately defend its ports.
Chinese military journals "argue that the success or failure of an invasion of Taiwan likely would hinge on whether Chinese amphibious-landing forces are able to seize, hold, and exploit the island's large port facilities," naval analyst Ian Easton wrote in a new book published by the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College.
"By themselves, Taiwan's beaches and coastal airports are too small to land enough [People's Liberation Army] troops, tanks, and supplies to secure a solid lodgment ashore," Easton wrote. "Because these sites lack purpose-built infrastructure for unloading large transports and because they occupy inherently exposed positions, PLA researchers fear that Chinese landing forces could be encircled on the beaches, showered with defensive fires, and overrun by Taiwanese counterattacks."
Chinese analysts worry that Taiwan will turn its ports into fortresses against sea assault, including mines and obstacles, sink containerships to block shipping channels, and set the waters alight by pouring oil into them.
The People's Liberation Army, as China's military is officially known, sees six options for taking Taiwan's ports, all of which have disadvantages, according to Easton. A direct assault runs into the teeth of port defenses. Landing on either side of a port with armor in a pincer attack is time-consuming. Quick surprise attacks with troops in hovercraft and sea-skimming helicopters suffer from limited transport capacity. Large air assaults with helicopter-carrying troops are threatened by Taiwanese air defenses. Special operations forces may be too lightly armed to seize ports. And beach assaults like D-Day come with the risk that Taiwanese troops could bottle up the attackers.
Based on Chinese military writings, Chinese planners seem to be leaning towards a mix of these options, per Easton. An invasion would begin with heavy air, missile and naval bombardment, followed by commandos to knock out coastal defenses. "After beach obstacles and coastal fortifications have been destroyed using direct fires, large amphibious forces will make landings from the sea, supported by troops arriving by helicopters, hovercraft, and ultralights," Easton wrote. "Once ashore, amphibious-assault units will conduct pincer movements from the beaches, surrounding port zones and isolating defenders into pockets of resistance."
Once ashore, PLA troops will attack areas near the port from two sides at the same time as other assault units in low-flying helicopters and hovercraft strike at the port directly. Once it is captured, Chinese forces will dig in to resist a counterattack, while engineers repair the docks and clear the shipping lanes.
The ports most likely to be attacked are those "that could support the rapid off-loading of main battle tanks and other heavy equipment. The ideal candidates for attack would be well-developed commercial or industrial ports flanked by beaches and river deltas in relatively flat and lightly urbanized areas," wrote Easton. The port of Taichung on the west coast of Taiwan is the most probable candidate, followed by Kaohsiung, Mailiao, Anping and Taiwan's capital Taipei.
Would this Chinese strategy work? Historically, armies and navies have avoided attacking heavily defended ports directly ("A ship's a fool to fight a fort," said the legendary British admiral Horatio Nelson). The most infamous example is the disastrous raid on the port of Dieppe in northern France by 10,000 Allied troops (the majority of them Canadian) in August 1942. Intended as a test operation for D-Day, the attackers suffered 5,000 dead and wounded, or about the half of the assault force. The lesson was so stinging that the Allies opted to make the Normandy invasion over the beaches, and then go on to capture a port.
The challenge isn't just seizing a port, but also getting it in usable enough condition to allow tanks to be unloaded. As the Allies discovered while taking fortified ports such as Brest and Cherbourg in 1944, the Germans made such effective use of demolitions that the port facilities were inoperative for months.
Easton suggests that Taiwan can beef up its port defenses, including missiles and mines, as well as units specially trained in urban warfare. Easton also believes that a first step could be removing the Chinese presence from Taiwanese ports, despite China accounting for 40% of Taiwan's exports. "Taiwanese leaders could close [Chinese Communist Party]-controlled representative offices," Easton wrote. "They could remove and replace critical port infrastructure that is linked to the Chinese military."
In the end, the fate of an invasion of Taiwan turns on which side controls the ports. "The imagination-crushing dimensions of a PLA amphibious operation against Taiwan β the moving of millions of humans and machines β all rely on robust logistics lines," Easton wrote. "Without them, everything else quickly crumbles and falls apart."
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Experts told BI that TSMC's most advanced chips will likely continue to be produced in Taiwan.
Taiwan's central role in a crucial global industry could help it secure support from the US.
Some US businesses are likely to continue depending on TSMC chips made in Taiwan for the foreseeable future, even as the company builds factories in Arizona.
On November 15, the Biden administration announced that the Commerce Department had awarded TSMC β the world's leading chipmaker β with up to $6.6 billion in funding to aid the construction of three chip factories in Phoenix. The first factory is expected to begin full productionlevelsin early 2025.
In a press release, the Biden administration said the announcement was "among the most critical milestones yet" in the implementation of the CHIPS Act. Supportersof the law hope it will create US jobs, secure supply chains, and make the US less reliant on advanced chips from Taiwan β which faces the possible threat of a Chinese invasion. TSMC produces an estimated 90% of the world's advanced chips, which power everything from iPhones to cars.
While TSMC's Phoenix factories are expected to boost semiconductor chip production in the US, the company isn't making its most advanced chips stateside, industry experts told Business Insider.
Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that chips made in TSMC's US factories are expected to be one to two levels behind the company's more advanced Taiwan-made chips. For example, chips produced using 4 nanometer (nm) technology are expected to be made in the first Phoenix factory, while TSMC's Taiwan factories are already producing chips using 3nm technology. The smaller the nanometer number, the more transistors manufacturers can fit on a chip, making it more powerful and energy-efficient.
While 3nm chips are expected to be produced in TSMC's second Arizona factory β which is slated to begin full production in 2028 β Koch said this would likely come after the production of 2nm chips begins in Taiwan, which is estimated to happennext year, according to TSMC.
Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, told BI that by the time TSMC's Phoenix factory starts making 2nm chips, he'd expect the companyto be producing even more advancedchips in Taiwan.
"The United States will be dependent on chips from Taiwan for a long time to come," he said. "Even if the CHIPS Act is wildly successful, it'll barely get the US back to 17% to 20% of global chip production." The US currently produces about 10% of the world's chips.
The Department of Commerce told BI that as TSMC's Arizona fabs become operational, it expects to see the production of TSMC's most advanced chips transition into the US over the coming years.
TSMC declined to comment on whether the company's most advanced chips will continue to be produced in Taiwan.
Keeping TSMC's most advanced chips in Taiwan gives the island leverage
Companies that prefer to use the most cutting-edge technology β like Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, and AMD β will likely continue to source chips from Taiwan, said Chris Miller, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on semiconductors.
"I think TSMC's plants in Arizona are significant, but given current policies and investment trends, the US will be using large volumes of chips made in Taiwan for many years into the future," added Miller, who is the author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology,"
TSMC's most advanced chips are made first in Taiwan, in part, because that is where the company conducts its research and development β which makes it easier to roll out more sophisticated technologies. Additionally, keeping that level of production in Taiwan could help the island retain its essential role in the chipmaking industry, which is crucial to the global economy, Koch said.
He added that this dynamic could make the US more likely to provide Taiwan with military support if China invaded.
"It's very unlikely that the Taiwanese government would allow TSMC to build its most advanced fabs in the US without a few years' lag," he said, adding, "This is Taiwan's most valuable strategic capability. Without it, extracting a US security guarantee or support from the Trump administration goes from hard to impossible."
William Alan Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank, told BI the Biden administration's goal was to boost domestic chip production β not to completely erase US businesses' reliance on foreign-made chips.
What's more, efforts to develop and foster the US semiconductor industry could help protect America's supply chains from geopolitical events, even if some US businesses continue to source chips from Taiwan.
Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at [email protected].
Taiwan is planning to inject $1 billion a year into its AI industry, its technology minister said.
Wu Cheng-wen told Nikkei Asia that "AI sovereignty" is critical and benefits Taiwan's security.
The nation has been diversifying away from semiconductors and China to strengthen its economy.
Taiwan is planning to spend about $1 billion a year on artificial intelligence as part of its efforts to shift its economy away from semiconductors.
On Thursday, Taiwan's science and technology minister toldΒ Nikkei AsiaΒ that the government would spend $3 billion over 3 years to ramp up AI data centers and their computing ability.
"AI sovereignty is a critical issue," Wu Cheng-wen told the outlet, adding that it "benefits Taiwan's security."
He also said that the country aims to generate at least a "tenfold" return on its investments.
This is a significant development for the Taiwanese economy β the world's leading producer of advanced chips. Taiwan's semiconductor industry accounts for over 90% of the global market, and contributed roughly 13 to 15% of Taiwan's GDP in recent years.
The move comes as the country is not only trying to diversify its economy toward industries like AI, but also away from China.
Wu told Nikkei Asia that the pivot to AI could help his country secure better trade relations with other countries in what he termed the "democratic camp."
Earlier this month, multiple outlets, including the Financial Times, reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, notified its Chinese clients it would no longer be providing them with its cutting-edge AI chips and that the US would likely be involved in the approval process for any future supplies to Chinese businesses.
President-elect Donald Trump's victory earlier this month and the threat of 60% tariffs on US imports from China are also pushing Taiwan to help its companies relocate production away from China, Reuters reported.
The US overtook China as Taiwan's top export destination at the end of 2023, for the first time since 2003, Bloomberg reported in April, citing data from Taiwan's finance ministry.
Wu told Nikkei Asia that he is looking forward to cooperating with the US after Trump takes office in January.
He told the outlet that if TSMC's 2-nanometer chip plant enters "mass" production as scheduled next year, and matures successfully, "we can plan on building similar state-of-the-art 2-nanometer plants in allied nations."
TSMC announced in April it would build a third facility in Arizona to meet strong customer demand.
"The Taiwanese government and the US work very closely together," Wu said.
Taiwan's latest moves come amid growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and concerns about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which some military analysts and defense officials said could happen in the next few years.