• Vladimir Putin has been quiet about Syria since the end of Bashir Assad's rule.
• Rebels deposed Russia's longtime ally earlier this month, jeopardizing its military presence there.
• Any discussion about Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny, one expert told BI.

During an annual televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Russia's top military officials on Monday, Putin was keen to keep the focus firmly on incremental successes in Ukraine.

But he was conspicuously silent about recent events in Syria — where longtime Kremlin ally Bashar Assad was deposed by rebels earlier this month.

Russia had long provided military support to prop up Assad's government, but a lightning offensive by rebel groups that Russian intelligence failed to predict toppled Assad in just two weeks.

It also exposed the limits of Putin's ambition to reestablish Russia as a great power, according to analysts.

"The fall of the Assad regime is perceived as a sign of Russia's weakness in supporting its allies," Yaniv Voller, a senior lecturer in Middle East politics at the University of Kent, told BI.

He added that under such circumstances, "any discussion of the situation in Syria may expose Moscow to further scrutiny about its capabilities."

The loss of Assad also leaves the status of Russia's crucial Syrian military bases in doubt — and means Putin needs victories in Ukraine more than ever.

Russia's slow response to Syria

Putin has long boasted of Russia's success in Syria. In 2015, it launched its first foreign military mission since the end of the Cold War, and successfully achieved its core goal of keeping Assad in power.

The Kremlin used the campaign to mock the US and its allies over their failed Middle Eastern policies. It also used its military bases granted by Assad to project Russian power into Africa and beyond.

Yet, with Russia's military stretched by its costly war in Ukraine, Putin appeared unwilling or unable to divert forces to save Assad.

In the face of events unfolding in Syria, the Kremlin's early comments were limited to confirming it had provided asylum to Assad and his family, who fled on a Russian plane as rebels approached Damascus.

Russian media, which is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, was also muted in its coverage of events, according to RFE/RL, while military bloggers blamed Russian military leaders for the debacle and the ineptness of Assad's forces.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, sought to shift the blame to a familiar geopolitical foe: the US and its allies.

"All this is a repetition of the old, very old habit of creating some havoc, some mess, and then fishing in the muddy waters," he said.

What has Russia lost?

The collapse of Assad's government could have wider implications for Russia's global military footprint, which might help explain Putin's silence on the matter.

Nikolay Kozhanov, a research associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar University, argued in a piece for Chatham House last week that it has damaged Russia's reputation as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the survival of its partners.

Stefan Wolff, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, went further.

In a piece for The Conversation, Wolff said that Russia's failure to save a key partner like Assad highlights serious flaws in its capacity to act like a great power.

And four former US officials and military researchers even predicted that countries in Russia's sphere of influence could break away in the coming weeks, as many did in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed.

"The house of cards that Vladimir Putin has so carefully stacked over more than two decades is folding before our eyes," they wrote in Time Magazine.

Other analysts, however, are more circumspect.

Mohammed Albasha, founder of Basha Report, a Virginia-based consultancy specializing in Middle East affairs, told BI that "withdrawing from Syria would primarily impact Russia's influence in the Middle East."

He said that it might prompt governments in Armenia or those in the Sahel region, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their alliances with Moscow, and shift focus toward building closer ties with the West or China.

But when it comes to countries bordering Russia — such as Georgia, Tajikistan, and Belarus — he said those were likely to remain due to their deep economic ties and Russia's national security mandate to protect its borders.

Putin stays silent

Some analysts believe that Putin's silence on Syria may not just be about wanting to divert attention from an embarrassing defeat, but also about brokering a deal with Syria's new government to enable it to retain at least some of its military assets in the country.

Reports indicate that Russia has withdrawn naval vessels from the Tartus base, but has kept planes and other air force assets in Hmeimim.

"Even if Russia withdraws its forces from Syria, Moscow will still try to negotiate so that this withdrawal will not be perceived as a flight," Voller told BI.

Even so, Putin's focus on Ukraine on Monday underscores, now more than ever, that the Russian president needs a win.

A victory in Ukraine, where Russia has been making incremental but important progress in recent months, would enable Russia to buffer its reputation as a military power, despite recent setbacks and losses.

"There should be no expectation of anything but Russia doubling down in Ukraine," wrote Wolff in last week's blog post. "Putin needs a success that restores domestic and international confidence in him — and fast."

• Israel launched widespread strikes on Syria to wipe out the remnants of the Assad regime's military.
• The strikes targeted Syrian weapon stockpiles after a rebel offensive ousted President Bashar Assad.
• Israeli warplanes and missile ships destroyed Syrian aircraft, naval ships, and weapon depots.

The Israel Defense Forces launched widespread strikes across Syria over the past two days to wipe out what remained of the Assad regime's military arsenal.

The Israeli Air Force carried out about 480 strikes targeting most of the country's strategic weapon stockpiles left behind after rebels forced Syrian leader Bashar Assad to flee the country.

About 350 of the strikes were crewed aircraft targeting Syrian military assets, including aircraft, ammunition depots, storage facilities, and missile and radar systems. The Israeli Navy also destroyed several military vessels docked at two Syrian naval ports. The Israeli army seized strategic positions in the Golan Heights abandoned by Syrian troops.

Israeli officials said the extensive strikes on Syria were intended to prevent the Assad government's military infrastructure and weapons from being used by extremists and potential foes. Israel is exploiting the Assad regime's fall to enhance its security in the long term as it uses blistering force to cripple Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The fall of Assad

After a decadeslong dictatorship, rebel forces seized control of the Syrian capital of Damascus over the weekend, forcing Assad to relinquish power and flee the country.

"We declare Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," Hassan Abdul-Ghani, commander of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, wrote in a post on social media. "To the displaced people around the world, free Syria awaits you."

Former Syrian prime minister Ghazi al-Jalali remained in the country after the collapse of the Assad regime, saying the government is willing to cooperate and support "any leadership chosen by the Syrian people."

Creating a 'sterile defense zone'

While Israel supported ousting Assad, a staunch ally of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the situation in Syria is still "fraught with significant dangers" from the extremists now governing the country.

In the days after the dayslong rebel offensive ousted the Syrian dictator, Israel launched hundreds of strikes targeting Syrian military assets over 48 hours to prevent them "from falling into the hands of terrorist elements." HTS publicly split with the Al Qaeda affiliate from which it formed, but US officials believe it may still have links to Al Qaeda leaders.

"We have no intention of interfering in Syria's internal affairs, but we clearly intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security," Netanyahu said.

"I authorized the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists," he said, adding that Israel "would like to form relations with the new regime in Syria."

The IDF said the strikes were part of a larger-scale mission known as Operation Bashan Arrow, intended to create a "sterile defense zone" by neutralizing potential threats from the neighboring country.

Sinking Syrian warships

Israeli forces attacked key Syrian naval facilities in the port cities of Al-Bayda and Latakia late Tuesday, where more than a dozen Syrian naval vessels were docked.

Photos of the decimated port showed half-submerged Syrian warships. Some of the damaged vessels were Osa-class missile boats, Soviet-era vessels whose 30mm turrets and mounted missile launchers could be seen in the wreckage.

The Syrian navy, the smallest branch of the country's armed forces, operated over a dozen of the high-speed — albeit outdated — vessels developed by the Soviet Union in the 1960s.

Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz said Israeli Navy missile ships "destroyed Syria's navy overnight and with great success." It's not clear how many Syrian vessels were destroyed by Israeli warships in the overnight attack.

Satellite images of Latakia, a former stronghold of Assad, showed the charred wreckage of the naval ships. The IDF wrote in a post on X that "dozens of sea-to-sea missiles" with "significant explosive payloads" were also destroyed.

Destroying Syrian military aircraft

The IAF carried out an airstrike on the Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus, once a key stronghold of the Assad regime's air force.

At least three major Syrian army air bases were attacked by Israeli warplanes, damaging dozens of helicopters and fighter jets, The Times of Israel reported. Locals living near the bases said they heard several explosions after the Israeli strikes appeared to ignite the ammunition stored there, the Associated Press reported.

Dismantling Syrian military infrastructure

In addition to decimating Syria's aerial and naval fleet, the IDF said it carried out strikes on 130 military assets, such as firing positions, antiaircraft batteries, missile and radar systems, and weapons production sites.

Crippling Syria's chemical weapons infrastructure

Israeli forces also destroyed the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus, a key facility thought to be testing and operating the country's covert chemical and biological weapons programs under the Assad regime.

The Barzeh facility was previously bombarded in 2018 by US, UK, and French forces in response to a poison sarin gas attack in Douma, Syria. The US found Assad's government responsible for the April 2018 chemical warfare attack that killed at least 40 people and injured over 100.

However, the head of the center's polymers department told Reuters at the time that the facility, now reduced to rubble, was used to research medicinal components that couldn't be imported, such as anti-venom and cancer treatments.

'Changing the face of the Middle East'

The fall of the Syrian regime weakens Iran's regional influence and could pose logistical and strategic challenges to Iran's regional proxies like the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

"The collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of the severe blows with which we have struck Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran," Netanyahu said during a Monday press conference. "The axis has not yet disappeared, but as I promised — we are changing the face of the Middle East."

Despite the widespread strikes across Syria, Israeli military officials said the country's armed forces were operating beyond the Israeli-occupied demilitarized buffer zone in Golan Heights but not toward the Syrian capital.

"IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said at a briefing. "We are not involved in what's happening in Syria internally, we are not a side in this conflict, and we do not have any interest other than protecting our borders and the security of our citizens."

Katz, Israel's defense minister, said the country was advancing beyond Golan Heights to impose a "security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures" in southern Syria.

"With regard to what will be in the future, I'm not a prophet," Katz said. "It is important right now to take all necessary steps in the context of the security of Israel."

• Ukraine sent drones and drone operators to Syrian rebel forces, The Washington Post reported.
• Groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Bashar Assad's decades-old rule on Sunday.
• The Ukrainian aid played a modest role in toppling him, Western intel sources told the outlet.

Ukrainian intelligence supplied Syrian rebels with about 150 drones and 20 drone operators last month, shortly before the offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week, The Washington Post reported, citing sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities.

Ukraine's aid was sent four to five weeks ago by Ukrainian intelligence operatives as part of efforts to weaken Russia and its Syrian allies in the region, sources familiar with Ukraine's operations abroad told the Post.

Business Insider was unable to independently verify the report.

The military aid played a modest role in ousting Assad, Western intelligence sources told the outlet.

On Sunday, Syrian rebels led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew Assad after a lightning two-week campaign that caught the world off guard and ended Assad's 24-year rule.

The Post's report would be in keeping with Ukraine's efforts to undermine Russia's influence abroad.

Earlier this year, The Kyiv Post published videos that it said showed Ukrainian special forces interrogating Russian mercenaries in Sudan, and special forces fighting side by side with Syrian rebels against Russian mercenaries and Assad's forces.

A source within Ukraine's military intelligence agency told the outlet in June that since the start of the year, Ukrainian operatives had supported Syrian rebels in inflicting "numerous" strikes on Russian military facilities in the region.

In September, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said Ukrainian intelligence emissaries in Idlib, in Syria's northwest, were conducting "new dirty operations" and recruiting rebel fighters there.

Last month, Alexander Lavrentyev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, told Russian state news agency TASS that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence was arming "terrorists" in Idlib and that Ukrainian specialists were present there.

Ukraine's intelligence services didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI.

Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, told BI that if Ukraine is confirmed to have sent drones and drone operators to Syria, it would be surprising given how "problematic" the situation is in eastern Ukraine.

"I am not sure Ukraine can gain a lot by engaging in these types of operations," Libman said. "Rather, it will simply waste resources it needs to fight the war on Ukrainian soil itself."

The collapse of Assad, however, could jeopardize Russia's military footprint in Syria, where it could lose control over the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Russia has used those bases to project power in the Mediterranean and into Africa, and as a counter to NATO's southern flank.

Satellite images taken earlier this week by Maxar Technologies, obtained by BI, show Russian aircraft still present at Hmeimim, but Russian warships no longer present at Tartus.

• US troops remain in Syria to counter ISIS and patrol oil fields in the region.
• Trump's return raises uncertainties about the status of these troops in this highly volatile region.
• Both Turkey and the Kurdish-led officials hope to sway the incoming Trump administration.

For almost a decade, US troops have been on the ground in Syria to assist Kurdish-led forces in the defeat of the infamous Islamic State. These forces tamp down on the ISIS remnants in the northern and eastern regions they presently control, where tens of thousands of captured ISIS fighters, their families and suspected affiliates remain in open-air camps and prisons.

But there's a new wrinkle of uncertainty in this highly volatile and contested region: US President-elect Donald Trump.

During his first term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces after ISIS' territorial defeat. Trump did this following a phone call with the president of Turkey, a staunch rival of the SDF, resulting in an immediate cross-border Turkish operation against those US-allied forces. Trump then backtracked and kept 900 US troops in Syria.

His imminent return to the Oval Office once again raises the specter that the US could pull out, leaving a power vacuum that Turkey, the Syrian regime, and Russia may move to fill at the SDF's expense. The resulting instability could be an opening for ISIS to regroup. Turkish officials want the US to leave, with the incumbent defense minister stating, "Trump will strongly focus on this." But the Kurds hope they can persuade him otherwise.

"We formed a successful alliance with the United States in combating terrorism," Sinam Mohamad, the representative of the Syrian Democratic Council mission to the United States and a top diplomat of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, told Business Insider.

"We may have felt frustrated during Trump's first term due to his decision to withdraw American forces from Syria in 2019," Mohamad said. "But today, as a result of the political circumstances in the Middle East and the world, we see that President Trump will have a different outlook than before."

The AANES administrates large swathes of north and east Syria under the SDF's control.

The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which is backed by Russia, does not recognize the AANES. Turkey vehemently opposes it, claiming the SDF has inextricable ties to its main adversary, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. Turkish strikes against AANES infrastructure have cut off water and electricity to over a million people, leading to charges that Turkey is violating international law.

"The incoming Trump administration has an opportunity to reconfigure the entire US strategy in Syria, maintain its minimal but high-rewards troops presence in Syria, and proceed with a bold vision to mend fences between Syrian Kurds and Ankara," Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told BI.

"The focus should be on a win-win outcome for all sides, America, Kurds, and Turkey."

Some called for a US withdrawal after the January drone attack against a US base in Jordan that supports operations in Syria, killing three Americans and injuring 47.

The specific timing of any American withdrawal will also be a critical factor.

"The American withdrawal from Syria may take place in 2026 or before that, but what will be different are the circumstances that will accompany this withdrawal," the SDC's Mohamad said. "It may take into account the dangers facing the areas of the autonomous administration and Washington's allies in the fight against terrorism, and at that time, it is necessary to ensure the withdrawal with political security for the region."

The official underlined the continued importance of the American presence for ensuring "the continuation of the fight against terrorism" and that the SDF can continue securing the "large number of prisoners of the terrorist organizations languishing" in AANES detention.

The Kurds have thousands of former ISIS fighters in its camps and detention centers. The sprawling Al-Hol camp has a population of over 40,000, including thousands of ISIS women and children, a number of whom remain radicalized. It has warned that another Turkish invasion would divert SDF fighters and resources away from securing these facilities.

"The Syrian Democratic Forces have the qualifications to secure these facilities," said Mohamad, the Kurdish diplomat. "But they will not be able to perform their duty to the fullest extent if the withdrawal occurs without political security for the region's situation."

Mohamad stressed that AANES and SDF would want American guarantees that Turkey will not invade after a US withdrawal.

"A sudden troop withdrawal could probably result in even more disastrous outcomes than in Afghanistan, given the presence of various regional and global powers in Syria and the resurgence of ISIS and other jihadi groups there," said Salih, the FPRI regional expert.

"In all likelihood, the situation will be highly chaotic in the event of a withdrawal with serious consequences that could witness the mass escaping of ISIS prisoners, likely more radicalized and resentful as a result of their prison experience," Salih added.

While weakened from years of war, ISIS has already demonstrated its capability to regroup and threaten their adversaries. A coordinated ISIS jailbreak attempt in 2022 led to almost two weeks of heavy fighting with the SDF.

A rapid US withdrawal tips the uneasy balance of powers. Salih anticipates this could lead to "a hectic race" between Iran, Russia, the Syrian regime, and Turkey for the resource-rich AANES regions.

"All the problems we suffer from in the regions of North and East Syria are related to the necessity of placing our region within the international solution platforms related to Syria, political support, and finding a solution to the Syrian crisis with the participation of the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Council in the political process," Mohamad said.

"This will have a major impact in changing the shape of the region, reducing hotbeds of tension, and ensuring global security and peace."

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.