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Good morning. President Donald Trump's "big beautiful bill" is heading for a final vote in the US House of Representatives. BI has broken down how it could affect your wallet, if it passes, from an increase in the child tax credit to a repeal of student loan forgiveness.

In today's big story, Sean "Diddy" Combs may have dodged a possible sentence of life in prison, but he's not a free man yet.

What's on deck

Markets: A new report attempts to answer one question hanging over everyone on Wall Street.

Tech: Amazon's performance review process is getting a new key metric.

Business: What media and politics insiders are saying about Paramount's settlement with Trump.

But first, the jury has reached a verdict.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here.

The big story

Diddy's empire on the line

Cheers erupted in the courtroom as the verdicts were announced.

Sean "Diddy" Combs was found guilty on two felony counts of transporting people for prostitution. He avoided convictions on steeper charges: two counts of sex trafficking and one of racketeering.

"Love you!" Combs shouted to his family with a beaming smile after the verdict was read. "I'm gonna be home soon!"

Not as soon as he'd like. Combs was denied bail and ordered to remain in jail until his sentencing, with the judge citing his history of violence.

The verdict came after 14 hours of jury deliberations and more than six weeks of testimony from 34 government witnesses, including the R&B singer Cassie Ventura, who dated Combs for 11 years.

What does the verdict mean for the hip-hop mogul's business empire and his fortune?

Well — what's left of them, anyway.

As a result of the criminal indictment, emotionally-charged courtroom testimony, and the wave of civil sex abuse lawsuits against Combs, he's become persona non grata in the industries that once made him very wealthy, BI's Madeline Berg and Natalie Musumeci write.

His income streams and reputation have been dealt a blow.

For example, Diageo, Combs' partner in Cîroc vodka and DeLeón tequila, cut ties with him in 2023. The move officially ended a relationship that, according to the company, netted the music tycoon nearly $1 billion since he was named the face of Cîroc in 2007.

"Mr. Combs is well-aware that these lawsuits make it impossible for him to continue to be the 'face' of anything," Diageo lawyers wrote in 2023.

Beyond his criminal case, Combs is still facing more than 50 civil lawsuits accusing him of sexual assault, rape, drugging, and other forms of violence. And if any of the plaintiffs win, the financial impact could be steep.

3 things in markets

1. Tough times for Tesla. The EV maker's delivery numbers came in just as bad as Wall Street predicted, representing a 13.5% year-over-year decrease from Q2 2024. Early Tesla investor-turned-bear Ross Gerber called Elon Musk's latest spat with President Trump another "nail in the coffin" that could tank the stock as much as 50% if the market reevaluates it.

2. Why the economy is doing worse than we thought. The job market is tough, real GDP dropped more than initially thought, and consumer spending fell. These warning signs indicate there's trouble in the US economy, but that doesn't mean a recession is guaranteed.

3. A new report measures exactly how much AI will reshape banking. Unsurprisingly, the report found tech, engineering, and infrastructure would change the most, with a projection of 55% of the work being redefined by 2030. Front office functions are projected to see huge changes, too.

3 things in tech

1. Behind Microsoft's new AI-focused sales strategy. Microsoft's chief commercial officer Judson Althoff is revamping the sales unit to become "the frontier AI Firm," according to an internal memo viewed by BI. The memo was sent out a day before Microsoft cut less than 4% of its workforce, which affected many salespeople.

2. Amazon's performance reviews are getting stricter. Employee evaluations will now formally include the company's long-standing "Leadership Principles." Managers will use a new three-tiered system to evaluate how well employees reflect the company's values, according to an internal document BI obtained.

3. How much Meta pays top talent across its broader workforce. Software engineers at Meta can make up to $480,000, and even product designers and researchers can make $200,000, according to federal filings. Here's what Meta pays employees across various key roles.

3 things in business

1. More layoffs at TikTok. The company notified some e-commerce workers that their roles were being cut as part of "organizational and personnel changes," according to two employees and an internal email viewed by BI. US e-commerce sales performance has been mixed this year amid new tariffs on China.

2. Paramount's settlement with Trump sets a new media precedent. The media giant is paying $16 million to settle a lawsuit Trump brought over a "60 Minutes" segment that aired last fall. Here's what top people in media and politics, from Sen. Bernie Sanders to veteran White House reporter John Harwood, are saying about the agreement.

3. Corona beer is losing a key group of drinkers. Constellation Brands, the parent company, said first-quarter spending was soft in areas with "larger Hispanic populations." CEO Bill Newlands said this demographic makes up about 50% of the beer's consumer base.

In other news

• How Meta is training its chatbots to message you first, remember your chats, and keep you talking, according to internal documents obtained by BI.
• Citadel hires a chief medical officer as Ken Griffin's empire adds investment bank-like benefits.
• Tesla competitor BYD axes Mexico factory plans.
• KPMG partners share how to turn your Big Four summer internship into a job offer.
• National security-focused VC firm America's Frontier Fund is raising $315 million for its debut fund.
• Over 900 ETFs were launched in the last year. Here are nine of the most innovative.
• Four reasons forecasters are bullish on the market's smallest stocks after years of underperformance.
• What Babbel's new CEO has learned about leadership from his previous roles.
• Why a famed financial advisor thinks crypto should be up to 40% of your portfolio.
• Elon Musk is threatening their political careers. Republicans say they aren't sweating it.

What's happening today

• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly employment report.

• US financial markets close early ahead of Independence Day.

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  Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Meghan Morris, deputy bureau chief, in Singapore. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave).

• Trivago CEO Johannes Thomas tries to keep his mornings free from meetings.
• Thomas's routine involves blocks of 90 minutes to two hours to enhance focus and efficiency.
• Trivago tells workers to limit morning meetings so there can be "shared flow time."

Johannes Thomas, CEO of the hotel-search company Trivago, tries to keep his mornings free so he has time to chew on big ideas.

Thomas wakes early and tries not to take meetings before 11 a.m. so that he can structure the start of his workdays around blocks of time lasting 90 minutes to two hours.

The idea, he said, is to create time for "undivided attention" that can lead to high levels of productivity. It's what Thomas and others often refer to as "flow."

"I just focus on a problem, think it through, and really go into deep thinking," he told Business Insider.

That way, Thomas said, by lunch he's already accomplished a good deal of work. After that, he makes time for meetings. Thomas said the afternoon is generally more structured because that's the part of the day when "cognitive function goes down for most people."

Finding ways to squeeze more productivity out of workdays overrun by calendar reminders, email pings, and DMs can be a challenge for many workers. Yet, corralling meetings to certain days or times can boost productivity.

'Shared flow time'

Thomas said the 30-minute meetings that often punctuate corporate calendars can make things worse, "taking you out of these deep thinking modes that are extremely important for productivity."

That's why Trivago recommends that employees at the company, based in Düsseldorf, Germany, rely on the morning-afternoon split by trying to keep their calendars free from meetings before 11 a.m.

"We call it shared flow time," Thomas said, who returned in 2023 to the company where he'd started as an intern in 2011.

Thomas, 38, said having the routine also helps prime his brain for how he'll use those blocks of time when he starts his day. He tends to reserve one block for learning, which might involve getting his head around some aspect of artificial intelligence. Other times, it's going in-depth on some aspect of the company.

"Everything that demands cognitive function — it comes into these sessions," Thomas said.

In the afternoon, he'll make time to respond to emails "because that's usually not hard cognitive function," he said. If an email requires more dedicated attention, Thomas said, he'll slot it into his focus time.

Learning from the boss

Employees often take cues from leadership, so when those in charge model ways of working that might limit distractions, that can benefit organizations broadly, Kate Walker, a human resources consultant and executive coach in California, told BI.

The reverse can also be true, she said, if workers observe constant fire drills.

"If you see a leader at the top who's scattered and running around and reactive, then maybe you're more inclined to be operating in that way," Walker said.

She often recommends to her clients that they block time on their calendars for focusing and taking breaks. Walker also said workers can ask their bosses which meetings they might not need to attend.

Having too many meetings on the books can be a sign of cultural dysfunction within an organization, Nir Eyal, author of the book "Indistractable: How to Control Your Attention and Choose Your Life," previously told BI. In essence, he said, it can indicate that leaders and others don't value workers' time properly.

Ultimately, Trivago's Thomas said, having a good time management strategy gives him peace of mind. While he has a plan and strong intentions, Thomas estimates that his morning setup works about 70% of the time. So, he tries to be flexible when necessary.

"I have three kids," he said. "The world is a bit chaotic. Things happen."

• Utilities are using AI to modernize the aging grid with tools to manage growing energy demands.
• Predictive maintenance and genAI assistants are predicting grid risk and reducing repair time.
• This article is part of "How AI Is Changing Everything," a series on AI adoption across industries.

After decades of wear and tear, the US energy grid is starting to reach its breaking point.

The traditional grid system was designed for a time when electricity demand was steady and less intense. Today, the grid faces a mountain of unprecedented stressors. Accelerating electrification, a surge in energy-hungry AI infrastructure like data centers, and the intensifying impacts of extreme weather fueled by climate change are pushing grid infrastructure to its limits, destabilizing the already vulnerable energy system.

These disruptions could result in blackouts that could cost American businesses up to $150 billion each year, according to the US Department of Energy, potentially leaving millions of consumers without reliable electricity.

In response, utilities are cautiously starting to embrace artificial intelligence as a tool to help stabilize grid operations. Once seen as just a budding technology, AI is emerging as one part of utilities' strategies to anticipate disruptions, protect the grid's equipment, and better serve a rapidly changing energy landscape.

AI is enhancing predictive maintenance

AI is sharpening the tried-and-tested tools utilities have been using to prevent failures across the energy grid.

One is predictive maintenance, where sensors and software are used to monitor the condition of grid equipment, like transformers and power lines, and spot issues to fix before they cause outages.

Predictive maintenance isn't new. But integrating machine learning into the process has made detecting faulty equipment faster and more precise, according to Somjyoti Mukherjee, a consulting partner at Cognizant, an IT consulting firm.

Sensors embedded in circuit breakers, switch gears, and transmission lines feed real-time data into AI systems, which then analyze patterns to forecast when components are likely to fail.

"Predictive maintenance is delivering the fastest returns," Mukherjee, who leads grid modernization efforts for North America's utilities sector, told Business Insider.

Murkherjee pointed to one utility client with outdated systems that left field-technician crews wasting hours daily because they couldn't catch issues in time. After switching to an AI-driven maintenance system, the software recommended tools, suggested equipment replacements, and located defects in real time, allowing crews to work "smarter and faster," Murkherjee said.

Duke Energy, an American energy provider, is also tapping into AI to identify grid vulnerabilities. The Fortune 500 utility provider developed a hybrid AI system that blends machine learning with expert diagnostics to flag high-risk equipment. The tool is designed to monitor the health of Duke's transformer fleet, a connected web of circuits that transmit electricity from one board to another.

Duke's hybrid approach combining human expertise with AI-powered insights has led to "more consistent identification of problematic equipment" and "improved planning decisions," said Matt Carrara, the president of Doble Engineering.

Some startups are pushing AI's capabilities even further.

Rhizome is working with Seattle City Light, Vermont Electric Power Company, and other US grid operators to map out climate-driven risks before they strike. Co-founded by CEO Mishal Thadani, the platform uses AI to analyze historical grid data, outage causes, and environmental threats, such as wildfires, storms, and vegetation growth, down to the level of individual poles and wires.

The result is a digital risk map that guides where to invest in upgrades and maintenance for the biggest impact per dollar. One utility in Texas, for example, used Rhizome's predictive model to identify which circuits in its energy system were at high risk of impact by storm activity so the utility could invest capital into improving vulnerable equipment. In doing so, the Texas utility reduced storm-induced outages by 72%, according to Rhizome.

As utilities face tighter budgets, rising insurance costs, and increasing pressure from climate change and power-hungry data centers, Thadani said platforms like Rhizome can help them make more strategic investments into grid improvements.

"More utilities need to be very conscious about the investments they're making," Thadani told BI, adding that big capital decisions must be "justified with data and evidence to show that ratepayer value."

Energy providers are exploring new AI tools

Beyond maintenance, utilities are adopting new AI tools to better understand and manage physical equipment in the field.

Peter Nearing, a principal advisor at Stantec, an engineering consulting group, pointed to one of his firm's utility clients that deployed cameras with image recognition to automatically capture, identify, and digitize equipment data. Doing so improved the quality and speed of data collection, leading to less time spent gathering intel, better decision-making on equipment fleets, and, in turn, fewer manual site visits.

Implementing computer vision technology into the grid is part of a larger shift toward using AI for pattern recognition and data-heavy tasks, such as forecasting demand, mapping outages, and streamlining upgrades.

"This is where AI shines," Nearing told BI regarding the technology's data-handling capabilities.

Some utilities are now turning to generative AI to make fieldwork easier, too. In March, Avangrid, a US renewable energy supplier, launched "First Time Right Autopilot," a genAI tool trained on the company's internal manuals, troubleshooting guides, and other internal documents. Accessible on mobile devices through voice or text, the chatbot can answer technicians' repair questions in real time.

For instance, if a wind turbine goes offline, a technician can ask the AI assistant how to fix it. The tool analyzes the issue using contextual data on the turbine's equipment and provides step-by-step instructions.

Since implementing the AI tool, Avangrid has seen faster repairs and reduced downtime, according to Avangrid's chief information officer Nelly Jefferson.

"It empowers our workforce by providing field technicians with real-time access to expert-level support," Jefferson told BI.

Still, managing energy demand — especially during peak hours — remains a tough feat for AI to address, given the grid's outdated infrastructure. It's why most utilities are still in pilot mode when it comes to AI-driven load management, according to Vivian Lee, a Boston Consulting Group managing director with expertise in the energy sector.

Lee says that some are experimenting with short-term load forecasting, using real-time data like weather, usage trends, and local events to predict electricity demand hours or days in advance. Others are testing AI to control distributed energy resources like smart thermostats, EV chargers, and home batteries to slightly reduce or shift energy use during high-demand periods, easing strain on the grid.

These tools remain largely rule-based, where they only work when given instructions for specific use cases, limiting their widespread applications. But Lee sees long-term potential in AI to manage energy loads.

"Broad adoption of AI in load management is still in its early days," Lee told BI.

Roadblocks stand in the way of AI adoption

Despite rising optimism, the energy experts who spoke to BI said utilities companies are still finding it tough to adopt AI.

Many are still working with legacy IT and operational systems that don't integrate easily, making it hard to pull together clean, usable data for AI to draw insights.

"Data quality and availability remain major hurdles," said Lee.

Talent shortages add more friction. A lack of AI literacy across the workforce could make an organization more resistant to embracing new technologies, according to Nearing.

Regulatory bottlenecks make that transition even harder. The absence of clear guidelines on AI deployment in the energy sector creates hesitation among utilities, and utilities are required to navigate legal frameworks to ensure AI applications comply with data protection laws.

The Trump administration's tariffs on imported components like transformers and metals have also spiked costs, further complicating project timelines, Carrara said.

Utilities turn to AI with caution

Still, many of these obstacles are no longer deal-breakers. Mukherjee says that utilities are making progress by migrating to the cloud, training employees how to use AI, and engaging with regulators to encourage technological change.

"Regulators are responding," Mukherjee said, pointing to agencies like the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that are hiring technical experts and "leaning into innovation."

Building trust is also key. Mukherjee, Nearing, and Lee emphasized starting small, focusing on low-risk, explainable use cases to build internal momentum, and involving frontline workers from day one.

Looking ahead, utility experts say energy providers are eager to continue exploring AI's potential to modernize the grid to reduce strain.

But they have a long way to go before they can fully embrace AI with open arms.

"AI won't replace core grid functions," Lee said. "But it will increasingly act as an accelerant."

• Less than a year after we got married, my husband and I moved in with my parents.
• We spent five months there, and enjoyed quality time watching TV and playing games.
• I'm grateful for our time together and the opportunity to see my hometown in a new light.

Six years after I moved out, I never imagined I'd be back in my hometown, watching "Golden Girls" reruns with my mom and my new husband, but that was my reality at the start of 2024.

Just eight months after we tied the knot, my husband and I moved over six hours across Texas to Midland. My parents agreed to let us stay with them while he completed an internship at a local art gallery to fulfill a degree requirement for Texas A&M University.

We weren't exactly thrilled at first — I mean, who wants to move back in with their parents right after getting married? But it ended up being one of the sweetest seasons of our lives.

My family and I spent valuable quality time together

As an adult returning to my childhood home, I realized I hadn't experienced day-to-day life with my parents in more than six years.

It was refreshing — meditative even — to watch my mom come home from work, set her purse on the kitchen counter, and take off her shoes every day.

Being with my family for an extended stay also meant creating a new routine with them.

My husband and I played a nightly round of dominoes with my dad, spent quality time with my grandparents nearby, and yes, watched many "Golden Girls" reruns with my mom.

My husband is naturally introverted, so it was great to watch him and my parents grow their relationship. By the end of the semester, my dad and husband were exchanging their favorite books and frequenting their now-shared favorite bookstore.

Meanwhile, I appreciated having time with my parents so they could bond with me as an adult, instead of as a child living under their roof.

Moving home strengthened my husband and I's relationship, too

To say this move was out of our comfort zone would be a severe understatement, and there were definitely challenging times mixed in with all the good moments.

For one, sharing a space with parents is difficult. My husband needed alone time, but often didn't have much of an opportunity to get it. I also missed my independence and longed to have control over my environment.

When it's not your living space, and you don't have a dedicated space for remote work, it's easy to feel like you're just floating in the in-between.

However, my husband and I came out of this experience as a stronger couple. He caught a glimpse of how I grew up and was able to get to know me on an even deeper level.

Plus, after living in the same college town for years, it was so fun for us to explore a "new" place together. It turns out my hometown wasn't as boring as I thought it was as a high-school senior in 2018.

Sure, some things stayed the same, but we discovered lots of fun things to do, from visiting my hometown's drive-in movie theater to going on reading dates at the local coffee shop.

I never thought I'd return to my hometown, but I'm so grateful for that time in my life

After about five months at home, my husband and I moved out of my parents' house on our first wedding anniversary.

Now, just over a year later, my parents are selling my childhood home. We visited again a few weeks ago to take care of their dog while they were on vacation.

As I walked the street I grew up on, a few tears filled my eyes at the thought of never returning to the home that watched me grow up and return as a new version of myself: married, in love, and optimistic for the future.

• Steve Jobs was "one of the most disagreeable people in the history of humankind," Marc Andreessen said.
• But he added this was part of why Jobs was a "genius" because he took nothing for granted.
• Andreessen got to know Jobs in the 1990s as a young founder.

Steve Jobs was "one of the most disagreeable people in the history of humankind," and that was part of his genius, billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen said.

Speaking on the "A16z" podcast produced by his investment firm, Andreessen Horowitz, Andreessen said the late Apple CEO would "disagree with you over the shape of a glass on the table in front of you, he was going to argue about everything."

"It was where a lot of the genius came from," Andreessen added. "He was just not going to take the status quo for granted under any circumstances."

Andreessen got to know Jobs in the 1990s when he was a young entrepreneur in Silicon Valley, having cofounded Mosaic Communications Corporation, which later became Netscape.

Andreessen said Jobs and Elon Musk shared an approach to "first principles thinking," where difficult problems are broken down into their most basic elements and then rebuilt.

The Tesla CEO previously told workers to employ a first principles philosophy to improve performance.

Andreessen said there seemed to be two types of stories about Jobs in the books about him: that he was a "saint," and that he was a "screaming lunatic," who would yell and fire staff in meetings.

Andreessen said that, from what he saw and speaking to people who worked with Jobs, "I think the reality was in the middle."

"If you brought him first-class work, and if you were topping your field and super diligent, and on top of everything, and had all the details figured out, and knew what you were doing, and really good, he was like the best manager you were ever going to work with, and the best CEO you were ever going to work with" Andreessen said.

He said many people who worked with Jobs said they did their best work under him.

"His approach to performance management was 'everybody is going to be doing top-end work, if not, they're not going to be here. As a consequence, the best people in the world are going to love being here because they're surrounded by the best people in the world,'" Andreessen said.

• "The Social Network Part II" is going forward at Sony.
• It will be written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, who wrote the original movie.
• Here's our dream cast for the film.

Whether Mark Zuckerberg likes it or not, the story of Facebook is heading back to the big screen.

After years of speculation, in June, it was officially announced that Aaron Sorkin, the screenwriter of David Fincher's 2010 Oscar-winning hit "The Social Network," will write and direct a sequel for Sony titled "The Social Network Part II."

The original found huge acclaim upon its release and has since become a classic thanks to its intimate examination of how Zuckerberg, played by Jesse Eisenberg, created Facebook and changed the tech landscape.

The sequel will touch on just how impactful Facebook and its parent company, Meta, have been on society.

For years, Sorkin has said he wanted to write a sequel. In a 2020 interview for the "Happy Sad Confused" podcast, he noted that what fascinated him was "the dark side of Facebook."

A year later, The Wall Street Journal released its expansive investigative series The Facebook Files, which delved into the social network's impact on youth mental health, misinformation, and the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

Sorkin will use this reporting as inspiration for developing the sequel.

Meta did not respond to BI's request for comment about the sequel.

Zuckerberg has not commented on the sequel, but he has previously spoken out against the first movie.

"They got all these very specific details of what I was wearing, or these specific things correct, but then the whole narrative arc around my motivations and all this stuff were like, completely wrong," Zuckerberg said on the podcast "The Colin and Samir Show" in March, noting that the Zuckerberg character in the movie being "motivated by trying to find a girlfriend" was inaccurate as he was dating his now-wife Priscilla Chan before he started the company.

Outside of using The Facebook Files as a guide, there's little else known about the sequel, including if Eisenberg will return to play Zuckerberg (it's likely stars of the first movie like Andrew Garfield, who played Eduardo Saverin, Armie Hammer, who played the Winklevoss twins, and Justin Timberlake, who played Sean Parker, will not return as the story being told no longer involves them).

So we thought it was the perfect time to come up with our dream cast for "The Social Network Part II."

Jesse Eisenberg needs to return as Mark Zuckerberg.

Don't be shocked if Sorkin puts the focus on others in the Facebook/Meta world in the sequel. Sorkin is likely looking to show Facebook's evolution, which means introducing players who found their way into Zuckerberg's orbit after the early days of the company.

Also, going on Sorkin's past work (creator of "The West Wing," screenwriter of "A Few Good Men," director of "The Trial of the Chicago 7"), he loves a good ensemble cast.

But it would be a mistake for Zuckerberg to never make an appearance. And if Zuck does show up, it has to be Eisenberg playing him. He captivated us in the role, for which he was Oscar-nominated, so Sorkin trying to go another way would be disastrous.

Eisenberg did say in an interview with the BBC in February that he no longer wants to be "associated" with Zuckerberg. But feelings can change … especially when Sorkin wants you to do something.

"Past Lives" star Greta Lee would be perfect casting as Zuckerberg's wife, Priscilla Chan.

Chan never shows up in "The Social Network," but if Sorkin wants to continue the theme from the first movie of Zuckerberg's desire to find a special someone — however much the real Zuck says that's inaccurate — this would be the way to close that loop.

Regardless of how much of a role Chan actually plays in the movie, casting Greta Lee in the part would make a lot of sense.

After being lauded with attention for her work in the 2023 movie "Past Lives" and her continued Emmy-nominated work on the Apple TV+ series "The Morning Show" (not to mention her fantastic cameo in "The Studio"), this would be a part that could further heighten her exposure. And she certainly can handle Sorkin's heavy dialogue roles.

"The Bear" star Abby Elliott taking the role of whistleblower Frances Haugen could be a breakthrough.

The Facebook Files is heavily based on the thousands of pages of internal documents leaked by whistleblower Frances Haugen, who was a product manager at Facebook.

If Sorkin is going to heavily lean into The Facebook Files, Haugen could be a major character in the sequel. After it was revealed she was the whistleblower, Haugen did a "60 Minutes" interview and testified at a Senate hearing that Facebook knew it could be harmful to young people. (Shortly after, Zuckerberg announced on an earnings call that Meta was hiring 40,000 people to work in safety and security because, he said, "we care about getting this right." Facebook has long said it endorses establishing rules for online platforms.)

These are all elements that Sorkin can lean in on to create a meaty role. We see Abby Elliott as a perfect candidate to take it on.

The star of "The Bear" is on the cusp of major stardom, and under Sorkin's care, this has all the makings of an awards-bait leading lady performance.

Veteran actor Hugh Laurie could play Meta's former president of global affairs, Nick Clegg, in his sleep.

If Sorkin keeps Zuckerberg in the background, he may pull his focus to Nick Clegg as the face of the Facebook/Meta hierarchy in the movie.

When The Facebook Files were released, Clegg, who was Meta's president of global affairs until resigning this year, was front and center doing damage control. He even penned a memo titled "What the Wall Street Journal Got Wrong."

You need someone with a sense of authority to play this role (Clegg was the UK's deputy prime minister from 2010 to 2015). We can't think of anyone better than Hugh Laurie.

The veteran English actor has done everything from playing a sarcastic doctor in the long-running Fox series "House" to playing a senator trying to become vice president on HBO's "Veep."

Justin Theroux already has the look down to play Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri.

The Facebook Files reported that there was knowledge internally at Facebook/Meta that Instagram, which Meta owns, can be toxic to youth.

We're betting Sorkin will address that topic in some form. And one way to tackle it is to feature Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri getting heat for it.

Months after The Facebook Files were released, Mosseri was grilled at a Senate hearing investigating Instagram's harmful effects. Mosseri took the criticisms and told the lawmakers, "It is critical that we address youth online safety as an industry challenge and develop industry-wide solutions and standards."

We believe Justin Theroux has the perfect talents and look to turn the Instagram CEO part into a scene-stealing role.

Robert Redford has the gravitas to play Senator Richard Blumenthal, who chaired the subcommittee that investigated Facebook.

The Democratic senator chaired the United States Senate Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, and Data Security in 2021 and brought in Haugen, Mosseri, and others to testify following the release of The Facebook Files.

We're not implying that Sorkin should do a courtroom drama, but using the subcommittee would be a way to address misinformation and youth mental health. If he does go down that road, you'd need a recognizable face playing Blumenthal, and we've got the guy.

Legendary actor Robert Redford would bring not just the authority needed for the role but name recognition as well.

"The Life of Chuck" star Benjamin Pajak would be perfect for a key role.

Sorkin could choose to develop a fictional character to represent the toxicity that teens can experience on social media.

Teenage actor Benjamin Pajak, who recently wowed audiences in the movie "The Life of Chuck," would be our choice for that role.

He has the talent to showcase the struggles that teens go through.

Donald Trump should be featured in archival footage.

Sorkin also has to address the misinformation on Facebook and its connection to recent elections and the January 6 attacks.

The best way to do this is to feature Donald Trump in some way.

We suggest not casting him but using archival footage. Attempting to cast such a polarizing figure could become the story and distract from the movie — we saw what happened with the release of "The Apprentice" (though it earned Sebastian Stan, who portrayed Trump, an Oscar nomination).

• After going through a tough breakup, I quit my job to travel the world.
• At first, I loved spending time in places like Spain, Italy, Thailand, and Taiwan.
• But the lifestyle became tough, and after 18 months I returned home to find stability.

At the end of 2022, after a year of living together, my boyfriend broke up with me. I'd built my life around him, even taking a marketing job in Colorado to move in together. I was shattered.

I was stuck at a job I wasn't excited about and found myself with nowhere to go. I knew I needed a change, but I wasn't sure what that could look like.

Shortly after the breakup, I called my best friend, Megan, an English teacher in Madrid. We'd always dreamed of backpacking together, but the timing had never worked out — until now.

She had the summer off, and I was suddenly untethered. So, I saved every penny, quit my job, and set off for Madrid in June 2023.

At first, the trip was everything I could have dreamed of

The first few months were magical, as my "Eat, Pray, Love" fantasy came to life.

We spent our days savoring tapas in Madrid, biking through Copenhagen, and hiking the Path of the Gods on the Amalfi Coast.

I rarely thought about the breakup, but when I did, the pain was buried beneath the next breathtaking view or plate of paella.

After Europe, we headed to Asia — meditating with monks in Thailand, riding mopeds through Vietnam's mountains, and dancing with strangers in Japanese nightclubs.

Eventually, though, Megan returned to Europe, and I stayed behind in Taiwan to live with relatives.

I ended up staying another six months to take care of my sick grandma. She was in need of constant attention, and I was determined to help support my family and soak in what could be our last moments together.

Though I was grateful to be of service, caretaking was emotionally draining. It was clear I was no longer on summer vacation — I was drowning in diapers and desperation.

In February 2024, I left Taiwan, ready to end my journey abroad, and bought a plane ticket from Bangkok to Chicago. I wanted to make one final stop at Koh Phangan, a small Thai island, to visit a friend. From there, I'd fly back home.

Arriving on the island was a whirlwind. Every day, I met backpackers on the beach, swam in the sea, and wrote in coffee shops. For the first time in a while, I felt free, confident, and joyful.

Daily activities included singing with friends, savoring mango sticky rice, and dancing in the jungle. I ended up falling in love with the lifestyle. I flew back home only to pack up my stuff and move back to Koh Phangan.

But money quickly became tight. I picked up odd jobs — verifying votes for the Associated Press and even acting as an extra on "The White Lotus."

I tried to become a freelance travel writer as a means to support myself, but I had no idea where to start. Soon, I felt burned out and was spending more time on Netflix than at the beach.

As my income dwindled, so did my mental health. I felt like a failure, unable to accomplish my big dreams of living abroad. By fall, I sank into a depression, worsened by watching tourists relaxing on their dream getaways. I was a ghost of the person I was when I first arrived.

By winter, I finally accepted that the adventure had run its course. On Christmas Eve 2024, I landed at O'Hare International Airport, where my parents picked me up for a cozy night of board games and karaoke.

Coming back home was healing for me

What began as an escape from heartache became a transformative 18-month journey.

I reconnected with family, made friends around the world, and found a new sense of independence. Moving back home was a culture shock — but it gave me space to process everything I'd been through.

At times, I felt embarrassed for coming back, but as my mental health improved, I realized it was for the best.

I found a stable job, rebuilt a support network — from old and new connections — and developed a routine that integrates everything I learned: meditating, writing, dancing, and practicing yoga.

At home, I've found joy in the comfort of everyday life — in quiet walks with my parents, picnics with my best friends, and working on my writing every day. I thrive when I have a stable routine filled with moments of creativity.

I'll never stop traveling, but instead of constantly moving, I now take shorter trips. It's nice to enjoy each destination without the stress of a daily grind.

Now, after a few months of being settled, I'm in a much better place for growth than I ever was on the road. And little by little, I'm facing the grief I once tried to outrun.

• The US added 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the expected 111,000.
• Economists expected an uptick in unemployment, but it dropped to 4.1%.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in June that job market conditions have been solid.

The US added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations, and unemployment unexpectedly cooled to 4.1%.

Economists expected job growth of 111,000 and for unemployment to increase from 4.2%, which it had been for three consecutive months, to 4.3%.

May's job growth was revised from 139,000 to 144,000, and April's job growth was revised from 147,000 to 158,000. That means there were 16,000 more jobs created than previously thought.

Wage growth was still fairly strong, but has cooled down. Average earnings increased from $35.00 an hour in June 2024 to $36.30 an hour a year later, a 3.7% rise following recent 3.8% and 3.9% increases. Average earnings rose by 0.2% over the month, from $36.22 an hour.

Labor force participation edged down from 62.4% in May to 62.3% in June. Employment increased in government, with a 63,500 increase in state and local government education. Employment dropped in private educational services but increased in healthcare and social assistance. Employment fell in manufacturing and the professional and business services sector.

While the unemployment rate fell, long-term unemployment, or people who have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks, increased.

The Fed decided about two weeks ago to hold interest rates steady again. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on June 18, after the rate announcement, that the job market is solid, with low unemployment and moderating wage growth that exceeds inflation.

The next rate decision will be toward the end of July. New inflation data and other measures will be released before the members determine what to do next with interest rates. CME FedWatch, which shows the chance of a rate outcome based on market moves, indicated after Thursday's release a 95% chance that rates will be held steady again, up from a 75% chance before the report. Powell has repeatedly said President Donald Trump's tariffs have been one reason rates haven't come down yet.

"We went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs, and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs," Powell said at a European Central Bank panel earlier this week.

He added that the "prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be" before reacting, as long as the economy is solid.

While the job market has shown some strength, it has been unfavorable for job seekers, and it can be tough for recent college graduates to get hired easily. Just 29% of consumers surveyed by The Conference Board said jobs were "plentiful" in June.

"So far, layoffs have not surged wildly, but hiring has cooled," Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate, told Business Insider toward the end of June. "The outlook is for more of this in the coming months."

Softer spending and a worse-than-expected real GDP reading show there are economic headwinds, but the US isn't officially in a recession.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

• Tech leaders and some economists have warned that AI could trigger mass unemployment.
• Economist David Autor believes AI won't kill jobs and could instead create a "Mad Max" scenario.
• It could make your skills less valuable and your paycheck smaller, the MIT professor said.

As AI reshapes the labor market, the real threat may not be unemployment — it could be something subtler and more corrosive: the collapse in what skills are worth.

That's according to MIT economist David Autor, who made the comments in an interview released Wednesday on the "Possible" podcast, hosted by LinkedIn cofounder Reed Hoffman.

Autor warned that rapid automation could usher in what he calls a "Mad Max" scenario — a world where jobs still exist, but the skills that once generated wages become cheap and commoditized.

"The more likely scenario to me looks much more like Mad Max: Fury Road, where everybody is competing over a few remaining resources that aren't controlled by some warlord somewhere," he said.

The reference, drawn from the dystopian film series set in a post-collapse world of scarcity and inequality, captures Autor's fear that AI could concentrate wealth and power at the top while leaving most workers to fight over what's left.

While several economists and some tech CEOs worry AI could displace millions of workers, Autor argued that the damage may play out differently, through the devaluation of once-valuable skills.

"The threat that rapid automation poses — to the degree it poses as a threat — is not running out of work, but making the valuable skills that people have highly abundant so they're no longer valuable," he said.

He pointed to roles like touch typists, factory technicians, and even taxi drivers as examples — all skilled, well-paying jobs that technology has downgraded or, in some cases, replaced.

"It used to be that touch typing was a very valuable skill. Not so much anymore," he said.

This doesn't mean people will be unemployed, he added. Instead, many are likely to shift into lower-paid service jobs — in food service, cleaning, security — that require little training and offer minimal pay.

"Automation can either increase the expertise of your work by eliminating the supporting tasks and allowing you to focus on what you're really good at," he said.

"Or, it can descale your work by automating the expert parts and just leaving you with a sort of last mile."

Autor's concern is increasingly reflected in the corporate world.

A May Salesforce study projected that 23% of workers will be redeployed over the next two years as AI adoption surges, and even employees who stay in their current roles will see them evolve.

Tech executives, meanwhile, are placing a growing premium on adaptability, creativity, and the ability to work with AI tools, not just technical specialization.

To avoid a future where technology widens inequality, Autor said we must intentionally design AI to support workers.

"As my friend Josh Cohen, a philosopher, likes to say, 'The future is not a forecasting exercise — it's a design exercise, you're building it.'"

"And so, breaking our way is not just a matter of luck. It's a matter of making good collective choices, and that's extremely hard to do."

For Autor, the best place to start is by focusing AI where it can do the most good: expanding access to healthcare, education, and meaningful work.

"Healthcare and education — two activities that in the United States has 20% GDP, a lot of it public money, actually — this is where there's such a great opportunity where AI could be a tool that could be so helpful to us in a way that other tools have not been."

"Many of these things are feasible," he continued. "If we think we're not going to do them, it's not because we couldn't do them. It's because we're somehow not delivering on what is feasible."

• Microsoft's latest round of layoffs takes place as the company revises its strategy for selling AI tools.
• The layoffs target traditional sales roles, some of which will be replaced by technical salespeople.
• Microsoft faces competition from OpenAI and Google, prompting the sales strategy overhaul.

Microsoft's latest round of layoffs come as the company revises its strategy for selling artificial intelligence tools amid increasing competition from OpenAI and Google, according to sources familiar with the plans and internal documents.

The company's recent job cuts included thousands of salespeople, the people said, and largely targeted traditional salespeople that the company intends to replace with more technical salespeople to better sell AI tools.

Microsoft on July 2 said it plans to lay off less than 4% of its workforce, which would be around 9,000 people. The company typically makes changes to its workforce around this time of year as July 1 marks a new fiscal year, but this year's layoffs are significant as the company cuts costs to make up for massive spending on AI.

Microsoft plans to replace many traditional salespeople, often called "specialists" internally, and replace them with "solutions engineers," who can show customers actual demos earlier on in the sales process, the people said.

Microsoft confirmed the company is replacing some specialist roles with solutions engineers to increase the technical and industry understanding among its salesforce, and plans to hire more salespeople outside its headquarters to get more sellers out in the field.

The company has received feedback from customers that they had to engage with too many salespeople before getting down to the technical details and demos. "The customer wants Microsoft to bring their technical people in front of them quickly," one of the people said. "We need someone who is more technical, much earlier in the cycle."

The changes come as Microsoft faces increasing competition for enterprise customers in AI. Microsoft has an advantage in that many large companies already use its other tools, but many of those companies' employees want the more well-known ChatGPT.

The sales cuts are tied to a plan to simplify how Microsoft sells AI, detailed internally earlier this year.

In a memo to the sales organization the day before the layoffs were announced, Microsoft sales chief Judson Althoff laid out a vision to revamp the organization.

Althoff called for "continued agility" and "reinventing Microsoft and MCAPS" to become "the Frontier AI Firm," and outlined the five priorities of the sales organization, including to "establish a Copilot on every device and across every role."

Althoff also internally unveiled plans in April to slash the number of the sales team's "solutions areas" by half during the next fiscal year, which starts July 1. BI obtained copies of slides from his presentation.

Microsoft previously had six solutions areas: Modern work, Business Applications, Digital & App Innovation, Data & AI, Azure Infrastructure, and Security. Beginning July 1, these areas were set to be combined into three: AI Business Solutions, Cloud & AI Platforms, and Security, according to those slides.

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• I'm an avid traveler, but I always used to avoid cruises — until I went on one with 12 relatives.
• The cruise helped us travel at varying paces, spend time together, and easily eat meals as a family.
• Even though I was a skeptic, I'll probably book another cruise again.

When the Royal Princess pulled away from the port in Seattle with me, my husband, and my extended family on board, I wondered what the next week would hold.

My mother and my sister had conspired to plan a family trip in honor of my dad's 80th birthday, deciding on an Alaskan cruise as the setting for our first group vacation.

I'm an avid traveler, but I'd previously had reservations about cruises. I typically prefer to navigate a new place myself for more than just a handful of hours in port.

Not to mention my extended family of 13 hadn't spent more than a day together … well, ever. We generally get along, but eight days traveling together is a different story than eight hours together in someone's living room on Christmas.

This cruise from Seattle to Alaska's Inside Passage, however, turned out to be an ideal vacation for a multigenerational group of people with different abilities, travel styles, and interests.

On a cruise, we could stray but easily find one another again.

It was established pretty early on that no one expected us to roll as a group of 13 at all times.

Upon boarding, we split up based on our various priorities: checking out the pool, finding drinks, or securing premium dining reservations. This helped set the tone for the rest of the trip.

But because we were all effectively in the same place and had cabins in the same corridor, we never had to worry that anyone would be lost or left behind.

We each got to choose our own adventure — literally.

The variety of activities offered on off-shore excursions meant that everyone got to spend time experiencing Alaska's port towns in a way that most appealed to them.

We quickly learned how important this was on a trip with so many family members, including people of varying ages. With so many activity options, older relatives with more limited mobility were spared from having to keep pace with the younger ones.

My husband and I chose a foodie walking tour and whale-watching excursions, and we also checked out some local distilleries in each port. Others went kayaking, hiking, or dog-sledding.

I got to connect with different relatives over different activities.

Even on board, we could all choose our preferred activities, whether line dancing, playing games, or tasting wine.

Some of my favorite moments on the trip happened when nuclear family units got reshuffled for various activities. For example, my husband and I loved to go for an early-morning swim before breakfast when the deck was empty, and various family members joined us throughout the week.

This isn't to say we didn't spend time together as a group, though.

The activities we chose to do together were appropriate for everyone's interests and abilities: a scenic train ride, for instance, or an after-dinner show on board. We also ate dinner together as a family.

Cruising made it easy to plan dinner with such a large group.

Having a standing reservation at the same time and table every night meant we never wasted time or energy trying to figure out where we could go as a large group.

I also appreciated that our cruise's menu was clearly designed to fit many diets and palates.

I'm a food writer with a fine-dining background, but my youngest relatives? Not so much. Fortunately, dining room menus on cruise ships tend to have options for everyone.

Because we'd often spent at least part of the day doing different activities, dinner was a nice opportunity to share stories and catch up. We were split between two tables next to each other, but made an effort to shuffle seating arrangements each night.

The leaders and planners in our family got to relax with the rest of us.

Every family has members who tend to take charge when it comes to meals and activities. Among friends, I am typically that person; in my family, however, I am usually outplanned by other members.

I could appreciate, though, that those in my family who typically took on these responsibilities were relieved of the pressure to plan and keep everyone entertained, and could lean into the organized activities that cruising offered.

Despite my prior cruise skepticism, I'd do it again. It may not be my first choice for certain destinations, but the ease of travel and variety of activities were appealing — and it turned out to be a great option for a large group trip.

Before long, I may even end up taking a cruise with just my husband.

• Christina Starmer's son wanted to move out of the house after graduating from high school.
• She and her husband converted their garage into a studio apartment where he could live rent-free.
• Their son focused on his startup while he lived there, and the Starmers can now rent out the space.

Many parents go above and beyond to support their kids — but Christina and Jeff Starmer took it to another level when their son wanted to launch a startup just after graduating from high school.

They decided to turn their garage into a studio apartment, giving him a free place to live while he focused on his work.

The project was a boon to the young founder — and allowed the Starmers to stumble into a lucrative side hustle.

In the fall of 2022, the Starmer family was on the cusp of transition.

Christina and Jeff Starmer live in Jacksonville, Florida, where they own CenterBeam Construction, a company that renovates historic homes. They have two kids, Chloe Starmer, 29, and Lyman Starmer, 21.

In the fall of 2022, Lyman was on the cusp of graduating from high school. He planned to move out of his parents' home after graduation and devote himself to launching his startup, Deli, which uses AI to help people with the house-hunting process.

But Christina, 55, was concerned her son couldn't afford to live on his own and start his company, particularly because rent was high in their area in the wake of the pandemic.

"He was having to figure out how to get programmers and stuff like that, and I was like, 'You don't have any money and any money that people do put into your company, you don't want to spend that on housing,'" she told Business Insider.

The family's garage offered the perfect solution.

The Starmers have lived in their home for 19 years. During that time, they added a separate garage to the property.

The partially finished, 378-square-foot garage mostly served as a storage space for the family, housing things like bikes, workout equipment, and a second refrigerator, though it had electric and plumbing capabilities that had yet to be hooked up.

Since they were no strangers to construction and home renovation, Christina suggested turning the space into an apartment where Lyman could live rent-free. She and Jeff could also list it on Airbnb when their son moved out, giving them another income source.

"He was working so hard," Christina said. "We started a business, and I know what it takes to start a business, so I'm like, 'I would give my kids all the opportunity in the world.'"

It was a no-brainer for the whole family.

The Starmers started working on the renovation in November 2022.

Christina told BI she initially set a budget of $48,000 for the remodel.

She and Jeff were able to serve as their own contractors for the project and do most of the labor themselves, only outsourcing work for changes to the electricity and plumbing.

Their daughter Chloe helped her parents with the design and layout of the space, visiting them on weekends to help with the renovation, and Lyman contributed to physical work like tiling and framing.

The structure originally had two garage doors, and the renovation kicked off with closing up one of them.

"The other garage door remains today," Christina said. "That way, if somebody else ever wanted to convert it back, they could have a garage that they could drive in."

The completed space functions like a cozy studio apartment.

When you enter the apartment, you walk right into the kitchen, which has a small island with bar seating, a refrigerator, a stove, and a dishwasher.

Maximizing space was a top priority as they renovated. For instance, the kitchen was designed with a built-in pantry.

"While we were framing, I was like, 'I know it's a 2-by-4 wall, but I think I can make a pantry out of this 2-by-4 stud here,'" Christina said. "So instead of just drywalling it up, we made a large, long box and put some doors in the front."

"I put wallpaper in the back and a couple of shelves, and now all of a sudden, you have a pantry for canned foods," she added.

Bringing light into the living area was a challenge.

A small living area sits across from the kitchen, and it includes an air conditioning unit.

Christina said the biggest challenge with designing the living area was the limited natural light in the room, as the whole apartment had only one glass door and one window. The glass door was in the bedroom, which was separated from the living area by a wall, so the Starmers decided to add an internal window to the space.

"We went to one of those old salvage yards and got a glass door from like the 1900s, turned it sideways, and it became a window in between the two rooms," Christina told BI.

High ceilings make the space feel bigger than it is.

"The garage was originally built with a hip roof, which makes the ceiling higher," Christina said.

The ceilings are closer to 11 feet instead of the typical 8 feet. Plus, there are some exposed beams for a touch of character.

"It feels so much bigger," she added.

The apartment even has a washer and dryer, though Christina has one regret about it.

The apartment's bathroom is across from the bedroom, and it sits a step above the rest of the space.

"The plumbing was already stubbed out there, so we didn't want to have to jack up concrete and stuff," Christina said of why there was a step.

Instead, they just raised the whole bathroom by about 7 inches, which saved the Starmers money and allowed them to create separation between the bathroom and bedroom.

They also put a full-size washer and dryer in the mini hallway between the bedroom and bathroom, stacking them atop each other just across from a closet.

Christina put a drawer beneath the machines for storing detergent and other laundry supplies, which she said still "bugs" her to this day because it made the dryer a little too high to reach easily. A step ladder easily solves the problem, though.

Designing the small space wasn't an easy task.

Christina said designing the layout for the apartment was the biggest hurdle of the project, as she wanted it to feel like a true studio despite the limited square footage.

"We wanted a really good flow in a super tiny space and for someone to not feel boxed in," she said.

She tried to avoid some of the pitfalls of mini spaces, like creating a bunk bed that was too small to stand up in or ultra-slim stairs.

Instead, she focused on creating a one-story space that felt spacious and inviting.

The renovation ended up costing about $69,000 and took about four months.

Christina and Jeff wrapped the project in March 2023, creating a space that worked for their son while he finished high school and launched his career.

It will also be easy to rent out eventually. "We haven't put it on Airbnb yet, but that's coming," Christina said.

Although the project was over budget, the Starmers still saved tens of thousands of dollars by working as their own contractors.

"If you do hire a contractor and you are paying all of that labor, which comes with trim out, framing, installing cabinetry, and all that stuff that we did ourselves, you will definitely be in that $120,000-ish range of today's market," Christina told BI.

Lyman moved into the apartment when it was finished and lived there until he relocated to New York City in 2025.

"My parents turning their garage into a studio apartment gave me the one thing first-time founders never have enough of — runway," Lyman told BI. "Skipping roughly $1,500 in monthly rent for almost two years meant I could funnel every spare dollar into Deli, the AI home-search platform I was building — hiring contract devs, covering cloud bills, and stretching our early runway instead of a landlord's pocket."

"I had a door I could close for all-night coding marathons and investor Zooms, yet I was still close enough to step inside for dinner or a quick pep talk," he added. "That mix of independence and family support turned a simple remodel into the launchpad for my startup."

Christina said the transition to her son living in the apartment went smoothly, and she was grateful she could make things a bit easier for him.

"When he started living outside, in the mornings, he would come in and have coffee before he went to school, even though he had a coffee pot out there," she said. "Then in the evenings, by the time he got home and showered and worked a little bit, he would be back in and we would all eat dinner together."

"I thought it was lovely," she added.

Now, the rest of the Starmer family is helping others transform their garages.

The Starmers shared videos about the apartment project on their social media platforms, and the videos went viral, amassing millions of views on TikTok.

Because of the interest in their videos, Christina, Jeff, and Chloe decided to share what they learned about renovating small spaces online. They sell plans for garage conversions on their website, Her Home Reno. In June, they also launched an online course to teach novices how to take on a project like theirs.

Christina said they have sold hundreds of plans so far, and she hopes their knowledge can help others make the most of their spaces.

• Tesla reported its second quarter of underwhelming sales in a row on Wednesday.
• Elon Musk's automaker could really use its long-promised affordable EV right now.
• Tesla said it would start making cheaper models in the first half of 2025, but there's still no sign of them.

Tesla could really use the affordable EV it's been promising, but the timeline keeps slipping.

As recently as April, Tesla said it would begin production of its mysterious new "affordable" EVs in the first half of 2025. But the deadline came and went on Tuesday with no word, and Wednesday saw the automaker report its second consecutive year-over-year decline in deliveries.

When Tesla announced similarly bad delivery numbers in April, an analyst told Business Insider it made making an affordable EV even more crucial.

In addition to brand damage from CEO Elon Musk's political interventions, Tesla faces pressure from cheaper rivals in China like BYD, and rising competition from Western manufacturers expanding their EV lineups, like Cadillac.

A more affordably priced model is all the more compelling as the automaker simultaneously grapples with an overall slowdown in EV adoption.

Musk first mentioned launching a cheap EV in 2020, but since then, concrete details on what the car might actually look like, and when it might be coming, have been scant. Here's what's been said about the long-awaited model:

September 2020

"We're confident that long term, we can design and manufacture a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle" — Elon Musk

At Tesla's "Battery Day" presentation, Musk said he was confident the company would be able to ship a "fully autonomous" $25,000 electric car "about three years from now," adding that such a vehicle had "always been our dream."

January 2022

"We're not currently working on the $25,000 car. At some point we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate frankly," — Elon Musk

Asked about the status of the $25,000 EV in an investor call in 2022, Musk said Tesla's affordable electric car had taken a back seat to other projects.

January 2024

"They should be taken with a grain of salt, since I'm often optimistic," — Elon Musk

In a January 2024 earnings call, Musk said Tesla would start production of a next-generation mass-market EV near the end of 2025, but admitted that he was "often optimistic" regarding timelines.

April 2024

"Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker," — Reuters

A Reuters report, citing anonymous sources, said it had seen internal messages and notes from meetings about the project being scrapped. Musk quickly fired back, denying the report in a post on his X.

"Reuters is lying (again)," — Elon Musk

Reuters said at the time that Tesla had not responded to a request for comment, and noted Musk had not shared any specific inaccuracies about the story.

"If you have a great product at a great price, the sales will be excellent," — Elon Musk

After Tesla's stock price dropped following the Reuters report, the company said in an investor call later in April that it would accelerate plans for more affordable models. Musk said they could go into production in late 2024 or early 2025.

October 2024

"I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. It would be silly. It would be completely at odds with what we believe," — Elon Musk.

Asked about when Tesla investors could expect a "$25,000 non-robotaxi regular car model" in an earnings call, Musk made it clear that Tesla was going all in on robotaxis and autonomous vehicles.

January 2025

"Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025," — Tesla.

After a glitzy robotaxi launch in October fell flat with shareholders, Tesla stuck to Musk's timeline but provided no further details about the automaker's affordable models in its January 2025 earnings report.

April 2025

"Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States," — Reuters.

Reuters reported that the planned affordable model would be a stripped-down version of Tesla's best-selling Model Y, and that production had been delayed by several months. It cited three sources "with knowledge of the matter."

The company did not respond to a request for comment on the reported delay.

"As with all launches, we're working through the last-minute issues that pop up," — Lars Moravy.

During its Q1 earnings call, Tesla reiterated that production of the affordable models would start in the first half of the year and said it had retooled its factories to prepare to launch the new models.

Tesla's vehicle engineering VP, Lars Moravy, said the production ramp might be "a little slower" than the company had previously hoped, but added Tesla still expected to meet the deadline.

July 2025

Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on the status of the company's affordable models.

• ChatGPT almost had a different name.
• OpenAI changed the chatbot's name in a "late-night decision," ChatGPT head Nick Turley said.
• The 2022 launch made ChatGPT a viral hit and helped push OpenAI's valuation higher.

"Chat with GPT-3.5" doesn't really roll off the tongue, but it's almost what OpenAI named ChatGPT.

On the latest episode of the OpenAI podcast, two leaders involved with the chatbot's development, research chief Mark Chen and head of ChatGPT Nick Turley, spoke about the days leading up to the launch that made the tool go viral.

"It was going to be Chat with GPT-3.5, and we had a late-night decision to simplify" the name, Turley said on the podcast published July 1. The team made the name change the day before the version's late 2022 launch, he said.

"We realized that that would be hard to pronounce and came up with a great name instead," Turley said.

They settled on ChatGPT, short for "generative pre-trained transformer."

Since then, ChatGPT has gained millions of users who turn to the chatbot for everything from routine web searches to guidance on how to give a friend career advice. Rivals, including Meta AI, Google's Gemini, and DeepSeek, have also sprung up.

Before ChatGPT's launch, few within OpenAI expected the name to be so consequential, said Andrew Mayne, the podcast host and OpenAI's former science communicator.

He said the chatbot's capabilities were largely similar to those of previous versions. The main differences included a more user-friendly interface and, of course, the name.

"It's the same thing, but we just put the interface in here and made it so you didn't have to prompt as much," Mayne said on the podcast.

After OpenAI launched ChatGPT, though, the chatbot took off, with Reddit users as far away as Japan experimenting with it, Turley said. It soon became clear that ChatGPT's popularity wasn't going to fade quickly and that the tool was "going to change the world," he said.

"We've had so many launches, so many previews over time, and this one really was something else," Chen said on the podcast.

ChatGPT's success represented another kind of milestone for Chen: "My parents just stopped asking me to go work for Google," he said.

• I bought a 40-foot Morgan ketch for $1. I'm at least the third person to buy it for this amount.
• Some say there's nothing more expensive than a free boat, but I've been pleasantly surprised.
• My husband and I recently sailed for over four months and traveled over 1,000 miles on this boat.

"Simon! Lara!" shouted Bill the bartender as we entered the town brewery. "You know anyone who wants a free 40-foot boat?"

Simon, my husband, began frantically shaking his head no. The adage in the boating community is that there's nothing as expensive as a free boat, but I asked Bill to tell me more.

Bill was friends with a couple who had aged out of sailing and needed to get rid of their 1970 40-foot Morgan ketch, and I happened to be in the right place at the right time.

I bought a boat for $1

The boat wasn't actually free — when I spoke to the sellers, they wanted $1 for it. Turns out, I'm not the first person to buy this boat for a dollar. In fact, I'm at least the third.

One former owner sailed it almost from the North Carolina coast to Bermuda before experiencing issues that caused it to partially sink.

The owner before us bought it with severe damage and restored it. He kept the dollar tradition because the boat was too old to insure and needed too much cosmetic work to list it with a broker.

The dated interiors and worn surfaces were just right for us, though. The boat even had the tiny cast-iron wood stove I'd been coveting.

We love the adventures we've had

We set to scrubbing off a few years of dust and grime. We repainted the interior in sunny golds and oranges, leaning into the 1970s vibe.

After changing the oil and replacing some filters, she was ready to sail. All in all, we didn't have to spend too much fixing her up — our biggest cost was a few cans of paint.

We cast off the lines three months after purchase, setting sail from our home port in Oriental, North Carolina — a lovely small town of about 800 people, known as the sailing capital of the state.

One of our first stops was Georgetown, South Carolina, where we ate perlau fritters. A few weeks later, we were enjoying lionfish sushi in the Keys.

Our wood stove kept us warm through a freak winter snowstorm. We spent entire days watching nurse sharks and parrotfish by the seawalls in Marathon, Florida.

Because we could anchor for free or just a few dollars in most places, we had all the time to ourselves and didn't need to toil away at jobs for financing.

We sailed over 1,000 miles from North Carolina to the Florida Keys. In all, we spent over four months traveling, spending little to do it.

We made friends in anchorages whom we would never have met otherwise. Buying this boat has truly been a game changer for us.

I got into boating because housing was too expensive

When Simon and I got married, we started looking for a house in Dunedin, Florida. However, the few houses we found in our price range were less than appealing.

One home tour left us scratching flea bites after; another had a plant room built into the garage that had grown very moldy.

With a mortgage preapproval expiring, we were getting discouraged. One day, Simon showed me his laptop screen and said: "Alternate plan?"

It was a Craigslist ad for a 25-foot sailboat. That was the beginning.

10 extra feet doesn't sound like a lot, but it changes everything

We bought the 25-foot sailboat for $3,000. Since then, I've purchased several boats, each one a bit bigger and less expensive than the last.

Before buying the $1 boat, Simon and I were living on a 30-foot boat I'd purchased for $1,000. Anyone who's done the tiny home thing can tell you about the cluttered surfaces and the utter lack of time alone.

When you live on a boat that small, you don't get to sail it very much, either. Items on counters need to be stowed, and maintenance goes undone because you don't have the room to work.

The 10 extra feet that came with the 40-foot Morgan ketch were a welcome relief. We now have room to stow all our gear, so we spend time sailing instead of sitting at the dock. There's also less tension between us because we have enough space to do our own thing.

Our 1,000-mile shakedown cruise showed us this $1 boat is sturdy enough for any seas and comfortably equipped enough for us to live here without climbing the walls. Next winter, we'll take her to the Caribbean. After that? Only the wind knows.

• China's first passenger jet, the Comac C909, celebrated nine years since its maiden flight.
• Air China launched its first international service with the type on Tuesday.
• It's another sign of Comac's growing ambitions to cut into the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.

Chinese homegrown planemaker Comac is one step closer to challenging Boeing and Airbus.

Comac's C909, the planemaker's first jet, is designed for regional journeys, with a capacity between 78 and 90 seats.

That makes it smaller than any jet currently produced by Airbus or Boeing, instead likelier to compete with those built by the Brazilian manufacturer Embraer.

It attracts less attention than the larger C919 — a similar model to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 — but is still a key part of Comac's ambitions.

As Saturday marked nine years since the C909's maiden flight, China's official state news agency Xinhua interviewed the jet's chief designer, Chen Yong.

He called it "a pioneer in my country's commercial aircraft field," adding that it achieved "a breakthrough" by being China's first commercial aircraft.

Tuesday then saw flag carrier Air China launch its first international service with the C909. A water-cannon salute greeted the plane as it landed in the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar after a 90-minute journey from Hohhot, in China's north.

"We look forward to it continuing to write the pride of domestic aircraft in the future," the airline said in a post on Weibo.

That came after Lao Airlines, the flag carrier of Laos, leased two C909s from Comac and started operations in April, Xinhua reported. Later that month, Vietnam's VietJet also leased two of the jets from Chengdu Airlines, launching daily flights between Ho Chi Minh City and the nearby Con Dao archipelago.

These are promising developments for the small jet, which Comac renamed from the ARJ21 last November, unifying its brand in a sign of growing ambitions.

However, only 166 such planes have been delivered, Chen said.

The plane also looks very similar to the McDonnell Douglas MD-80. One of Comac's predecessor companies partnered with the American planemaker in the 1980s.

Meanwhile, Comac has faced allegations of corporate espionage over the C919.

In 2022, a Chinese intelligence officer, Yanjun Xu, was sentenced to 20 years in prison after a US jury found him guilty of trying to steal technology related to GE Aviation's engines.

The aviation industry remains divided on Comac's chances of competing with the likes of Boeing and Airbus.

"Comac is years away from being certified outside China … It's going to be a very limited market for quite some time," John Schmidt, Accenture's aerospace and defense lead, told Business Insider in an interview at last month's Paris Air Show.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said in February that the sector could go "from a duopoly to a potential triopoly."

He added that Comac was more likely to succeed thanks to its "privileged access" to the Chinese market, which accounts for a fifth of global aircraft demand.

• President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that leaves tariffs on the major exporter at 20%.
• The US imports about 10 times more goods in value from Vietnam than it exports each month.
• Apparel brands like Nike could soon hike prices due to a large number of suppliers in Vietnam.

From Lululemon leggings to Nike sneakers, your favorite apparel may soon get pricier.

With less than a week left for the US to strike deals before additional higher tariffs imposed on April 2 come back, Wednesday morning started with President Donald Trump announcing a deal with Vietnam, saying that details of the deal would follow.

Apparel stocks like Lululemon, Nike, and Columbia Sportswear immediately spiked following his announcement.

The shares, however, tumbled within the next hour when Trump announced that not only would a 20% tariff apply to Vietnam, which is higher than the 10% baseline tariff currently on all imports, the tariff would be 40% if the companies reroute products from a different country through Vietnam, known as "transshipping."

Nike and Columbia Sportswear eventually recovered their gains, and Lululemon broke even at the end of the day.

In exchange, Trump said that Vietnam has agreed to zero tariffs on all US exports to the Asian country. According to data from the US Census Bureau, the US imports more than 10 times of goods in value from Vietnam each month compared to what Vietnam absorbs from the US.

Popular apparel makers remain vulnerable to a 20% tariff on Vietnam.

According to Lululemon's latest active supplier list from April, 38 out of 144 of their suppliers are located in Vietnam. Based on Nike's sustainability interactive map, the company works with more than 130 factories in Vietnam, which make up around 25% of all its factories. In comparison, only 5% of Nike factories are in the US.

Similarly, according to Columbia Sportswear's "corporate transparency map" more than 230 out of the 1017 suppliers the company works with are located in Vietnam.

Since April 9, when Trump announced a 90-day pause on some of the highest tariffs imposed on 75 trading partners, there have been talks of negotiations with Japan, Thailand, and the EU. But the talks have thus far only yielded one completed deal with the UK aside from the new agreement with Vietnam.

Over the past week, Trump had said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures" that he would be sending out tariff letters on July 9 when the tariff pause expires, signaling that there may not be an extension of the same scale.

"Congratulations, we're allowing you to shop in the United States of America, you're going to pay a 25% tariff, or a 35% or a 50% or 10%," Trump said of what would happen.

"We'll look at how a country treats us — are they good, are they not so good — some countries we don't care, we'll just send a high number out," Trump added.

• Banking could be "redefined" by as much as 40% by 2030, a new report predicts.
• The report says AI will fundamentally reshape many aspects of what banks do.
• It was prepared by ThoughtLinks, led by veteran banking exec Sumeet Chabria.

A new report attempts to put hard numbers on a question hanging over every Wall Street corner office: just how much of banking work will AI actually change?

Artificial intelligence is on track to redefine 44% of the work done at banks by 2030, according to ThoughtLinks, an independent consulting firm.

ThoughtLinks — which is led by founder and CEO Sumeet Chabria, a former tech and operations COO at Bank of America and a Wall Street veteran — mapped nearly 5,000 individual banking "processes" to see which roles or units at banks will experience the most upheaval in their roles.

ThoughtLinks found that tech, engineering, and infrastructure—collectively considered one sector — would be most susceptible to transformation, with a projection of 55% of the work involved in that sector being redefined by 2030. It's a logical outcome, considering how many of the tasks in these fields are precisely the kinds that automation is best suited to handle.

Front office, client-facing sectors are hardly immune. Commercial banking could be redefined by as much as 49% by 2030, wealth management to the tune of 42%, and investment banking by as much as 33%, according to the report.

Wall Street banks are investing heavily to compete. JPMorgan has deployed a large language model suite to its 200,000 employees, while Goldman Sachs has rolled out its own ChatGPT-like sidekick, GS AI Assistant. Citigroup also last week announced a new leadership team to drive AI strategy for its nearly quarter-million workers worldwide.

It's important to note that these numbers do not reflect ThoughtLinks' predictions about how many jobs could be lost or created as a result of AI — rather, they look at how much of the work done by those who work in banks could be done differently thanks to the implementation of artificial intelligence.

To assess how much each banking process could be redefined, ThoughtLinks developed a framework that maps what bank employees do to nearly 5,000 individual "processes." "'Redefined' reflects substantial AI-enabled, process-level change via automation, resequencing, elimination, or redesign," the firm wrote in its report.

In an interview, Chabria said that breaking finance jobs down to their most basic components would be critical to understanding how to retrain workers in the face of the AI revolution. "Clearly, you've got to keep the level of agility," he said, "because things are going to change."

Chabria shared three examples with Business Insider of how he anticipates sectors to respond to AI-driven changes. We got a look at snapshots for commercial banking, investment banking, and wealth management. Take a look at what's already transforming, what will be adapted by 2030, and the parts of the job that may stay mostly in the hands of humans for now.

Commercial banking: 49% redefined by 2030

What's already being automated:

• First-generation banking advisor copilot services are now live, helping bankers obtain insights on clients, quickly summarize notes or files, draft basic memos, or flag policy exceptions.
• Some manual workflows — like creating spreadsheets, drafting emails, and navigating legacy systems — are being replaced. This reduces time doing manual work, as well as human error.
• Customers have access to virtual AI-enabled assistants on corporate banking systems that give them personalized insights and enable them to do routine transactions more quickly.

What is expected to be redefined by 2030:

• Client onboarding: GenAI will help guide client onboarding conversations and tailor explanations, while the next iteration of AI will likely be able to verify forms and assess risks.
• Banks will leverage AI to assess small business creditworthiness to expand credit access.
• Banks will use AI to adjust loan pricing, fee structures, and product terms based on clients' behavior, financial patterns, and market conditions.
• AI tools will help detect some breaches and generate internal alerts in real time, increasing security 24/7.

What is likely to resist being redefined by AI:

• Large corporate lending will still require human credit judgment and board oversight.
• Banks will need to rely on legal, tax, risk, and structuring teams.

Investment Banking: 33% redefined by 2030

What's already being automated:

• Drafting documents like prospectuses or pitchbooks is being digitized. Generative AI tools can now pull in some market data, past deals, financial comps, and company-branded slides to build draft pitchbooks in minutes.
• Internal AI copilots are accelerating deal prep. Bankers can now use GPT-based tools to instantly summarize earnings calls, analyst reports, and client financials.
• Generative AI tools can now review documents, flag missing disclosures, and summarize new regulatory changes.

What is expected to be redefined by 2030:

• Banks will leverage AI to simulate investor demand or model pricing scenarios for equity and debt offerings. (Final allocation will remain human-led.)
• AI will help bankers test thousands of ways to structure a deal by adjusting debt, equity, pricing, and covenants to find the right balance for clients.

What is likely to resist being redefined by AI:

• Final IPO and syndicate pricing will remain human-led. Setting the price for a new issuance will require banker judgment, market feel, and live investor feedback.
• Winning mandates and advising the C-suite will remain relationship-driven and led by humans, who will use AI to enhance their knowledge or judgment and land new mandates.

Wealth Management: 42% redefined by 2030

What's already being automated:

• AI copilots can now answer questions, generate meeting prep docs, and summarize client portfolios — in seconds.
• Financial planning is faster and becoming more scalable. Tools powered by generative AI can aid advisors in building personalized plans that simulate life events, goals, and risk tolerance without starting from scratch.
• Client reporting is now becoming personalized with custom commentary on investment performance, market moves, and risk tailored to each client's portfolio.

What is expected to be redefined by 2030:

• Tax management will become more automated and timely.
• AI will help tailor advice and investment strategies to reflect individual preferences, financial behavior, and goals.
• On the flip side, clients may use AI to manage their wealth in their own portfolio with smart triggers.

What is likely to resist being redefined by AI:

• Client engagement and coaching will remain human. During market downturns or personal events, clients still want empathy, reassurance, and value judgment that only a trusted advisor can provide.

• Regulators will ensure that advisors remain responsible for advice, not AI.

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• "28 Years Later" introduces a cult leader inspired by Jimmy Savile, a BBC star outed as a prolific abuser.
• Chi Lewis-Parry, who played an infected Alpha in the film, called the character "masterful."
• "It's hard to come up with something original," he told BI.

Fans of "28 Years Later" were divided by the ending that introduces Sir Jimmy Crystal (Jack O'Connell), a cult leader who bears more than a passing resemblance to Jimmy Savile, the BBC presenter outed as a prolific sexual abuser after his death in 2011.

In an interview with Business Insider in June, the film's respective director and producer, Danny Boyle and Alex Garland, confirmed that the character is based on Savile.

Chi Lewis-Parry, who plays Samson, a new, super-strong type of the infected called an Alpha, told BI that he thinks introducing Crystal was a bold decision but said "you have to test the boundaries."

Boyle has always challenged audiences with his films, including "28 Days Later" and "Trainspotting," a dark comedy about people in Glasgow addicted to heroin. In the world of "28 Years Later," the Rage Virus would have broken out before Savile's crimes could be unearthed. It seems likely the sequel, "The Bone Temple," will explore this further.

Lewis-Parry said: "It's hard to come up with something original" in the horror genre.

"Introducing that character is a different type of horror. It's taking real horror and sticking it in a fantasy horror scenario. I think that's masterful because you're not just relying on the jump scares and the stereotypical gore.

"You are kind of teasing the psyche of an audience with a real-life horror that has been discovered," he added. "For me, it's almost scarier because that really happened. Whatever you attach to that character is the fear element. I think it's brilliant, personally."

Boyle and Garland told BI how Crystal's scenes in "28 Years Later" set up the sequel. Garland said the bizarre cult leader taps into bigger themes of a "misremembered past" and "how selective memory is."

O'Connell will no doubt have a larger presence in the second film as Crystal, while Lewis-Parry will reprise his role as Samson.

BI previously reported how Lewis-Parry said he scared Boyle into casting him in the role during his audition.

Lewis-Parry teased that fans "might fall in love with Samson," but didn't reveal any plot points, adding: "it's magical when you watch something and know nothing about any surprises."

• Military officials and experts warn that air superiority may not be possible in modern warfare.
• Israel, however, was able to quickly achieve it against Iran.
• Iran, though capable, isn't bringing the same fight that a foe like Russia or China could.

Israel swiftly seized air superiority over parts of Iran during the latest fight, showing that it's still possible in modern, higher-end warfare to heavily dominate an enemy's skies.

But there's a risk in taking the wrong lesson from that win. Iran isn't Russia or China, and as the West readies for potential near-peer conflict, it really can't afford to forget that, officials and experts have cautioned.

Western military officials and warfare experts have repeatedly warned in recent years that achieving air superiority against those countries would be a daunting task.

Russia and China, especially the latter, boast sophisticated, integrated air defense networks with ground-based interceptors well supported by capable air forces, electronic warfare, and reliable space-based and airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

Air superiority in a limited theater is not the same as breaking through a complex anti-access, area-denial setup.

Israel's victory in the air war over Iran shows that air superiority is "not impossible" in modern warfare, former Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, a warfare strategist, explained. That said, he continued, a Western conflict with Russia or China would be "very different."

A victory in the air for Israel

Israel attacked nuclear and military sites in Iran in bombing runs and eliminated dozens of Iranian air defense batteries.

Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said it "highlights what you can do with a modern air force against some, on paper, fairly impressive defenses."

Iran maintained a capable layered air defense network featuring domestic systems, foreign-supplied defenses, and some modernized older systems. Though only semi-integrated compared to fully networked air defenses, it presented an obstacle.

Israel dismantled Iranian defenses over multiple engagements through extensive planning, detailed intelligence, and the employment of combat-proven airpower, specifically fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighters built for penetration and suppression of enemy air defenses and fourth-generation F-15s and F-16s, which can also support that mission.

Important to Israel's success in the latest fight with Iran were the engagements last year that substantially weakened Iranian air defense capabilities, as well as Israel's skills in this mission. Failures and aircraft losses in the 1973 Yom Kippur War led it to reevaluate how it approached enemy air defenses, in many ways leading to the emergence of the kind of missions used against Iran.

Ed Arnold, a security expert at RUSI, said that Israel reporting no aircraft losses "was significant, and it just showed that, yeah, you can get air supremacy very quickly." The caveat there is that doing so requires the right tactics, weapons, and intelligence, but even then, it is not guaranteed.

Retired Air Commodore Andrew Curtis, an airfare expert with a 35-year career in the Royal Air Force, told BI "the situation that everybody's been used to over the last 30 years is air supremacy," but when it comes to high-intensity war against a near-peer adverary, realistically, "those days are long gone."

Russia and China

Iran had air defenses, but not airpower. It's air force is largely made up of obsolete Western, Soviet, and Chinese aircraft. The ground-based surface-to-air missile batteries are more capable, but that's only one part of the defensive picture.

Curtis explained that Iran has "very little in the way of air defense aircraft, whereas of course Russia, and especially China, has stacks of them." Both Russia and China field fourth-generation-plus aircraft, as well as fifth-generation fighters.

China, in particular, has multiple fifth-gen fighters in various stages of development, and there are indications it's working on sixth-generation prototypes. By comparison, Iran's air force looks a lot like a plane museum.

But they also boast more advanced and more effective air defenses. Bronk said Russia's defenses are "better networked, more capable, more numerous, and more densely layered than Iran's." He said that if the West rolled back the SAM threat, it would likely be able to overcome Russia's air force, but China is a different story.

China has a complex integrated air defense network supported by ground-based air defenses, naval air defenses, and what Bronk characterized as "an increasingly very capable modern air force," among other capabilities. And China also has a "far greater and more sophisticated missile arsenal for striking bases" to hamstring an enemy's airpower. Additionally, it holds a strong economic position with an industrial base that is turning out high-end weapons.

China has also been tremendously increasing its number of interceptors without really expending any, unlike the US, which has been burning through interceptors in Middle Eastern conflicts.

Not all of China has the same protections, but breaking through defenses would likely represent a substantial challenge in a conflict, especially in something like a Taiwan contingency.

A conflict between the West and China could look like "a more traditional air war" — something not seen in a long time, Curtis said, explaining that air-to-air combat could make a comeback, with pilots again shooting down enemy planes. "In a peer-on-peer conflict, certainly with China, you would see a lot of that, because China has got a lot of air assets."

Future air battles

Achieving air superiority, as Israel did recently and as the US did in the Gulf War in the 1990s and in the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, has been crucial to the Western way of war, often serving as a tool to enable ground maneuvers.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which failed to knock out Ukraine's air defenses, now far more robust than at the start of the war, has shown what a conflict looks like when it isn't achieved. Aircraft are shot out of the sky, and ground forces are locked in grinding slogs. Devastating long-range attacks are still possible, but quick victory is generally not.

It has resulted in some stark warnings for future warfare.

Speaking on air superiority, Gen. James Hecker, the commander of NATO's air command, warned last year that "it's not a given." He added that "if we can't get air superiority, we're going to be doing the fight that's going on in Russia and Ukraine right now."

Other military leaders have said that air superiority may only be achieved in short bursts. War is full of surprises, but evidence indicates that's a real possibility. Achieving

Curtis said air planners now have to focus on specific priorities, like protecting air bases, and figuring out how to achieve a "localized time-bound air superiority or air supremacy in support of a short-term mission or operation."

"It's a different mindset," he said.

The key in future wars will be to seize control of as much of the aerial battlespace as possible to do what's necessary in the moment, all while holding firm defensively, as Israel did against Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile strikes, experts said. That means maintaining a strong air force and strong air defenses.

"Nothing in Ukraine or Israel has shown that air superiority isn't needed in the future," Ryan shared. "I think they've both shown that having air superiority is an extraordinarily important part of warfare and remains so.