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Today β€” 9 March 2025News

Who will die on 'The White Lotus' season 3? Buddhist ethics give a clue — and Greg should watch out

9 March 2025 at 08:23
Natasha Rothwell as Belinda in season three of "The White Lotus."
Natasha Rothwell as Belinda in season three of "The White Lotus."

Fabio Lovino/HBO

  • Season three of 'The White Lotus' explores themes of identity and spirituality in Thailand.
  • Creator Mike White is interested in Buddhist principles, which influenced the character's arcs this season.
  • Greg's storyline continues from season two, hinting at karmic consequences for his past actions.

Identity is a prison. That's the operating thesis of season three of Mike White's hit HBO satire "The White Lotus." To be on the nose for this season's Thailand-set exploration of privilege and hijinks, the line is uttered by a Buddhist monk in the premiere episode.

White has used each season's location and its meaning in the American consciousness to draw out the mess of interpersonal relationships among the hotel's staff and guests. In the first season, the colonial afterlife of Hawaii set the scene for exploring wealthy, predominantly white tourists' extractive relationships with the locals who serve them. The romance of Italy in season two formed the backdrop for the passions, affairs, familial and marital drama of the group who visited Sicily.

In season three, the spirituality of Thailand rattles the cages of identity The White Lotus' Western tourists lock themselves in. It's a location that allows the show to examine Eastern spirituality and satirize the way Western tourists appropriate it for their own self-help vacations.

"They're all in some kind of hurt," White said of his Thailand White Lotus visitors in an interview with Time. The dramatic irony is that the suffering they've come to cleanse themselves of is caused by the very thing that allowed them to be there in the first place β€” the exorbitant wealth and privilege they wield.

That irony likely isn't lost on White, who takes special pleasure in making sure his characters β€” even the lovable ones β€” get what's coming to them. You could call it karma, which just so happens to be a key principle of Buddhism, Thailand's dominant religion.

So who's due for some karmic repayment this season? Here's how the major tenets of Buddhist philosophy could offer some clues.

Prisons of identity

White has personal experience with Thailand and Buddhism.

"I had a Buddhist self-help phase when I had a nervous breakdown in my 30s," he told Time in January. "I use Buddhist concepts as a way to sort of organize my ideas."

Time in Buddhist philosophy doesn't work the same as time in Western philosophy. In the West, time is linear. Our lives have a fixed start date β€” birth β€” and end date β€” death.

In Buddhism, time is circular. Life is a cycle of death and rebirth. Identity isn't as fixed within a cycle of reincarnation, since you could be reborn into a higher or lower caste in the next life, depending on the karma you make in this one.

To be caught up in the material circumstances of the present creates the "prison of identity" discussed on the show. Each group of Western tourists is struggling with the prisons of their own identities in some way or another.

For the Southern Ratliff family, particularly the parents, pill-popping Victoria (Parker Posey) and stressed Duke dad Tim (Jason Isaacs), their identities are defined by having good values and by being successful. All that is about to come crashing down, though, since Tim's office is being scrutinized by the feds for a money laundering scheme he participated in years ago.

Jason Isaacs as Timothy Ratliff in season three of "The White Lotus."
Jason Isaacs as Timothy Ratliff in season three of "The White Lotus."

Fabio Lovino/HBO

Rick (Walton Goggins) is clearly tormented by the prison of his own identity, which has led him on a heavily implied revenge tour to Thailand to track down the person responsible for his father's death. The fixation on his father, his origin story, and the emptiness it's left him with is what the Buddhists would call attachment (derogatory) β€” the kind that only causes you suffering.

The trio of women on a girls' trip are trapped by the competition they've built up with one another. They're constantly vying for power over one another, to be seen as the most successful of the three. "It's not a midlife crisis; it's a victory lap," Southern housewife Kate (Leslie Bibb) insists in episode one.

Karmic repayment

"The White Lotus" is ostensibly an anthology, but if you've seen more than one season, you know that isn't exactly true. In Italy, Tanya McQuoid (Jennifer Coolidge) was the throughline from the first season in Hawaii, and you could say she met her karmic end in the Mediterranean for the false promises she made Belinda (Natasha Rothwell) in Hawaii.

In Thailand, Greg (Jon Gries) is the throughline from the previous season. When we encounter him on Koh Samui, he's assumed an alias "Gary" and denies having ever been to the White Lotus in Hawaii, where he met Tanya and Belinda. If you think of each season as one cycle of reincarnation, then Thailand is Greg's next life after the one he left in Italy, which effectively concluded with Tanya's death.

Of course, the audience knows all about the bad karma Greg stirred up in Sicily by organizing his wife's hit. Since the episode four teaser shows Belinda closing in on Greg with a little bit of internet sleuthing, it's fair to expect his old life to come flooding back.

In Buddhism, you can't enter a new life without balancing the karma, good and bad, that you've made in your previous one. Greg, responsible for the demise of Tanya at the end of last season, still managed to escape unscathed.

It's fair to expect he'll be getting some cosmic payback at the end of this one, whether it comes in the form of a snake bite, a poisoned seed, or a watery demise on the resort grounds. If Thailand has anything to teach him, it's that you can't start over without a little karmic justice.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump sees "period of transition," Lutnick says "no chance" of recession

9 March 2025 at 08:37

The U.S. economy will experience a "period of transition" as new trade and other policies take effect, President Trump said Sunday, though he hesitated to predict a full-blown recession.

Why it matters: While the president may not be forecasting it, markets suggest a recession is at least more possible now than it was even a few weeks ago.


What they're saying: Trump was asked about recession risks in an interview with Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures."

  • "I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big, we're bringing wealth back to America, that's a big thing," Trump said.
  • "There are always periods of ... it takes a little time, it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us, I mean I think it should be great."

Between the lines: As Axios' Neil Irwin writes, the administration appears to be shrugging off the specter of inflation or recession in pursuit of its long-term goals.

  • That has, itself, emerged as the economy's biggest near-term risk.

The intrigue: The administration has delivered mixed messaging on whether there's been a recession, or if one is coming.

  • In late February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the private sector has already been in a recession, with government spending keeping the economy as a whole from tipping over.
  • But on "Meet the Press" Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argued against a pullback.
  • "There's going to be no recession in America," Lutnick said, later adding "I would never bet on recession. No chance."

Trump insists CEOs have "plenty of clarity" on his tariff policy

9 March 2025 at 08:24

Corporate CEOs have "plenty of clarity" on U.S. tariff policy, despite all the on-off-on changes of recent weeks, President Trump said Sunday.

Why it matters: Markets are falling, consumer confidence is declining, and executives say the uncertainty about tariffs is freezing up their businesses.


What they're saying: Trump, in an interview with Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures," was asked if CEOs will get clarity on tariffs in coming weeks, especially with an April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline looming.

  • "You'll have a lot, but we may go up with some tariffs, it depends, we may go up β€” I don't think we'll go down, but we may go up," he said.
  • "They have plenty of clarity, they just use that, that's like almost a soundbite, they always say that, 'we want clarity.'"

Catch up quick: Over the last five weeks Trump said he'd impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then paused them for a month, then put them into effect, then exempted cars, then exempted almost all other imports (but only until early April), then threatened new tariffs against Canada on dairy and lumber.

  • He's also imposed new tariffs on China, launched tariff investigations into copper and lumber, and promised to go ahead this week with fresh levies on steel and aluminum.
  • U.S. stocks have underperformed almost all the other large global markets during that time. (The administration has made clear, however, that stock market performance is not its primary focus.)

What to watch: What actually gets imposed, or not, in the coming weeks, and for how long.

  • Trump, Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, and others have all insisted the April 2 reciprocal tariffs will be the most important β€” and lastingβ€” ones yet.

Go deeper: How American CEOs are reacting to Trump tariffs

Elon Musk suggests the US should leave NATO, saying it 'doesn't make sense' for the US to pay for Europe's defense

9 March 2025 at 07:47
Musk
Elon Musk at an AI event in London in the UK in 2023.

AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, Pool

  • Elon Musk has called for the US to exit NATO.
  • In a post on X, Musk said it "doesn't make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe."
  • Trump has repeatedly criticized European defense spending and threatened to leave NATO if allies didn't pay more.

Billionaire Elon Musk has suggested the US should leave NATO, as tensions between the US and its European allies continue to build.

Musk, the CEO of Tesla and head of the Department of Government Efficiency, reshared a post on X Sunday that read "Exit NATO now!"

"We really should," Musk wrote. "Doesn't make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe."

The current White House administration has had an increasingly strained relationship with its European NATO partners, with President Donald Trump repeatedly criticizing Europe's defense spending.

Trump has called on European members of the alliance to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP β€”significantly more than any member, including the US, currently spends. In his first term in office, Trump also threatened to withdraw from the alliance if allies did not boost spending.

While a number of countries have since pledged to make such changes, Trump has remained skeptical, saying earlier this month that the US would not defend NATO members who don't pay enough for their own defense.

It comes at a pivotal time for Europe as it seeks to step up support for Ukraine while the US appears to be pulling away from Kyiv. Trump announced that he would pause military aid to the country earlier this month following his dramatic clash with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the Oval Office.

Musk has taken on an influential role in the Trump administration.

In his position as head of DOGE, he has pushed for mass layoffs of federal workers and canceled federal contracts in a bid to cut government spending.

Read the original article on Business Insider

U.S. "not an agent of Israel," envoy says amid objections to Hamas talks

9 March 2025 at 08:14

U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler said Sunday that while he understands Israel's concerns over direct talks with Hamas, the U.S. is "not an agent of Israel."

The big picture: Hours after Boehler met with a senior Hamas political official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-hand man Ron Dermer condemned the U.S. making proposals without Israel's consent in an intense call last week, Axios' Barak Ravid scooped.


  • Boehler assured that he was not close to a deal with Hamas after the meetings in Doha, which were largely centered around securing the release of American hostage Edan Alexander and the bodies of four deceased American hostages, sources told Axios.

Driving the news: But on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday, Boehler described the conversations with Hamas as "very helpful," later saying he thinks "something could come together within weeks."

  • He added, "I think there is a deal where they can get all of the prisoners out, not just the Americans."

Friction point: Boehler said he's "sympathetic" to top Israeli leaders' disapproval of his meetings, but he emphasized the U.S. is "not an agent of Israel" with "specific interests at play."

  • Boehler said he wanted to ascertain the vision of a "realistic" end-game for Hamas during the talks.
  • "The reality is what I wanted to do is jump start some negotiations that were in a very fragile place," he said.
  • On "Fox News Sunday," Boehler emphasized that dialogue "does not mean giving things." He continued, "Dialogue ... means sitting -- hearing what someone wants and then identifying, does it fit with what we want or not and then how can you get somewhere in the middle and not have a war?"

Zoom out: The 42-day ceasefire that was part of the first phase of the Gaza deal expired just over a week ago after the parties could not agree on an extension.

  • A day after the agreement ended, Israel announced it would halt all humanitarian aid and fuel deliveries into Gaza, where some 90% of the population has been displaced amid war.
  • Hamas is still holding 59 hostages, 35 of whom the Israel Defense Forces have confirmed are dead.

What's next: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is now expected to travel to Doha Tuesday to push for a new hostage-release and ceasefire deal.

  • The administration is advocating for a deal that would see all remaining hostages released, extend the ceasefire until after the holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover and possibly lead to a long-term truce, Axios previously reported.

Go deeper: Trump issues new ultimatum for Hamas to release Israeli hostages

We scouted 2 popular vacation spots in Mexico as possible retirement destinations, and both left us feeling impressed

9 March 2025 at 07:35
La Isla Shopping Mall in CancΓΊn Mexico
There's much more to CancΓΊn, Mexico, than just shops and beaches.

Roberto Machado Noa/Getty Images

  • My husband and I retired to Cuenca, Ecuador, but always wondered what other options were out there.
  • We spent time in CancΓΊn and Playa del Carmen to see why many American expats retire in Mexico.
  • We were pleasantly surprised and impressed by the weather, shops, and more in each place.

In 2010, we left the United States and retired abroad to Cuenca, Ecuador.

Although we're fortunate to enjoy a fabulous retirement life abroad, we've always wondered if there's an even better place for us out there.

So, over a decade later, we set off on an adventure that lasted more than two years to explore other potential retirement spots around the globe to find out.

Our journey started in Mexico, a popular spot for American retirees in part due to its proximity to the US, generally lower cost of living, and its warm weather.

While there, we spent two weeks each in CancΓΊn and Playa del Carmen, two of the country's popular Caribbean vacation spots.

Although we chose tourist-heavy cities, we tried to get a taste of daily life by staying in neighborhoods outside the main vacation and hotel areas.

We were pleasantly surprised by CancΓΊn

Sunset over Cancun buildings
CancΓΊn is more than hotels and tourist spots.

WisKay/Getty Images

Located on the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, CancΓΊn is a major tourist destination in Mexico. That said, CancΓΊn has a "hotel zone" along the beach that's miles away from the city itself.

Most visitors (like us on an anniversary trip years ago) arrive at the airport, take a shuttle to their hotel, and never leave the vicinity before departing for home.

On this trip, though, we rented an Airbnb in a residential section of downtown to attempt to see what it might be like to live there.

We found downtown CancΓΊn to be quite different from the miles of fancy resorts, boutiques, and eateries in the hotel zone.

As we walked around, we passed numerous modest single-family homes and locally owned shops and restaurants. We liked that the downtown had everything we could need for daily life within walking distance.

In addition, the area had some popular American chains, like Walmart, which had a surprisingly impressive selection of affordable products and produce.

Plus, there's a major international airport just 20 to 30 minutes away from downtown β€” ideal for American expats who want to visit family back home.

Our apartment was miles from the beach, but an inexpensive bus ride made getting there a snap. However, once we got to the miles of public beaches, we were disappointed to find very few designated access points.

It was harder to enter the beach than we expected, especially since we'd been used to walking from an oceanfront hotel directly onto the sand when we'd stayed in CancΓΊn as tourists. This was definitely a drawback, but not an insurmountable one.

Overall, though, we were pleasantly surprised at how similar downtown CancΓΊn felt to our current neighborhood.

Playa del Carmen seemed to offer the best of both worlds for American expats

Aerial view of water by Playa del Carmen
Playa del Carmen has beaches, businesses, shops, and more.

Arturo PeΓ±a Romano Medina/Getty Images

Located about an hour south of CancΓΊn is the coastal town of Playa Del Carmen. Unlike CancΓΊn, Playa del Carmen doesn't have an isolated hotel zone separate from its residential areas.

This city has beaches, the famous 5th Avenue a couple of blocks away, and then local housing and businesses all the way to the major highway that runs from CancΓΊn past Tulum.

I liked that nearby neighborhoods could easily access the beach and popular spots like 5th Avenue. The lively area felt like Mexico's version of Bourbon Street in New Orleans, filled with tourists, vendors, and live music. This was fun, though I worried it could eventually be annoying to navigate while trying to do chores and run errands on a daily basis.

Even so, the area felt overflowing with outstanding food and shopping options.

In addition to local offerings, we found popular American chains like Walmart, Sam's Club, Office Depot, and many familiar chain restaurants in the area that US expats missing home would surely enjoy.

Although Playa del Carmen doesn't have its own international airport, the one in CancΓΊn is only about an hour away.

Overall, we can see why retirees would choose either place

It was exciting to see what else is out there for other Americans looking to retire abroad.

We appreciated how Playa del Carmen and CancΓΊn both felt beautiful and walkable, with fairly easy access to airports, which is great for retirees moving away from family.

We can definitely understand why the warm weather, beaches, and other perks would bring expats to either place.

That said, we also realized the area's generally hotter temperatures weren't quite an ideal fit for us. For now, we still call Cuenca home.

Read the original article on Business Insider

I'm a Lisbon local and tour guide. I see first-time visitors to Portugal make the same mistakes every year.

9 March 2025 at 06:53
Aerial view of red-roof buildings in Lisbon
Many first-time visitors to Lisbon make common mistakes.

no_limit_pictures/Getty Images

  • I'm a Lisbon local and tour guide, which means I see visitors make many of the same mistakes.
  • Some wrongfully assume Portugal's weather will be sunny all year and don't pack comfortable shoes.
  • We generally appreciate it when tourists leave tips and try to speak Portuguese.

Portugal's capital city, Lisbon, is high on many must-visit lists for a good reason. After all, it is a historical and gastronomic paradise.

I was born and raised in Lisbon, and I'm now a tour guide there, so I've seen visitors make a lot of missteps and errors while visiting my beautiful city and the areas beyond it.

Here are five mistakes I wish tourists would stop making when they come here.

Assuming the weather is always pleasant and sunny
Lisbon, Portugal. Belem Tower.
Portugal doesn't always have great weather.

Β© Marco Bottigelli/Getty Images

Many picture tons of year-round sunshine when they think of Portugal β€” I can tell by the way many tourists fail to dress properly when the weather is anything else.

Before you visit, know that our Mediterranean soil comes with all four seasons.

Summer is indeed hot and sunny, a great time for sunset cocktails on the Tagus River and outdoor diner parties with grilled sardines and small cold beers in the Alfama quarter. Winter can be a bit chilly.

In spring and autumn, temperatures tend to be more mild, making these great times of year to hike across Lisbon's seven hills and go on day trips around the city.

However, you'll want to pack carefully because the weather can also be the most unpredictable during these months. Definitely do some research before packing for your trip.

Wearing flip-flops or high heels around the city
Streetcar on cobblestone street in Lisbon
It can be tricky to walk uphill on the cobblestones in heels.

Alexander Spatari/Getty Images

Like many other Portuguese cities, Lisbon has an array of beautiful cobblestone patterns in its squares and sidewalks. However, these stones can get slippery and sometimes be uncomfortable to walk on.

So, pack sensible, comfortable footwear. The Portuguese pavement can be challenging enough to navigate without high heels and flip-flops.

Not even trying to speak the local language
Rua Augusta Arch in Lisbon Portugal around Sunset
You may want to at least try to speak Portuguese when greeting others.

Allard1/Getty Images

Although many of us locals enjoy practicing our English with tourists, we still appreciate it when visitors try to speak Portuguese.

Making an effort to use our language is a nice tribute to local culture β€” and there's a good chance you'll get better service just for trying.

At the very least, it's polite to know and use basic phrases, like hello (olΓ‘) and please (por favor).

Drinking strong Portuguese coffee as if it's the same as what you usually have back home
Table with tray of pastries and small coffee cup in Portugal
Portuguese coffee isn't the same as what many are used to drinking in the US.

Daniel Balakov/Getty Images

In Portugal, most of our coffee blends are made with robusta beans. If this is what you're used to back home, you should be fine.

However, robusta beans have way more caffeine than arabica ones, which are the more common offering in the United States (and much of the world).

To avoid caffeine overload, be mindful of this difference when getting drinks here. If you want a bigger cup of coffee that's less intense, order an abatanado (basically an Americano).

Also, keep in mind that we typically consume our coffee at a leisurely pace β€” it's meant for sipping while sitting at a cafΓ©. It's rare to see locals drinking coffee out of plastic or paper cups on the go.

Thinking the Portuguese don't like to be tipped
Open cafΓ© tarrace with view at Alfama  in Lisbon
When in Portugal, feel free to tip whenever you feel impressed with your service.

Rrrainbow/Getty Images

Tipping culture varies around the world, but that doesn't mean service workers here don't appreciate an extra bit of change.

In Lisbon, tipping isn't considered as essential as it is in the US, as our service workers are usually paid a living wage. However, tips should still be used to reward good service, especially at tourist-friendly activities and restaurants.

As a tour guide, I know firsthand just how much we appreciate them.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Sometimes talking to teen girls can be a minefield — that's why I've started exercising with mine

9 March 2025 at 06:31
Mom and daughter working out
The author found that working out with her teen was a way to connect.

Courtesy of the author

  • My eldest is 14 and a half, and it's not unusual for me to be ignored, insulted, or shouted at.
  • I try not to take it personally, but I still need my teen to know I'm there for her.
  • Recently, we've discovered we enjoy working out together.

As a mother of four girls, ages 7 to 14, I thought I'd be prepared for the teen years.

I was so naive.

Having a teen daughter is wonderful, funny, messy, eye-opening, and joyful but can also be scary.

Unlike all the previous parenting stages, you can no longer kid yourself that you have control over anything. Not when your adorable, cooing baby is your height, slamming a door in your face, ignoring everything you say, or informing you that our outfit makes you "look like a potato."

I never wanted to be my child's "best friend." However, it was shocking how different our relationship became (seemingly overnight), though every teen parenting book warned me this would happen.

Initially, I took it personally: the insults, the eye-rolling, the mumbled, monosyllabic answers. Now, I look for ways to keep channels of communication open between us.

Like exercising together, which has become one love language we both enjoy.

Connecting through shared passions

One of the challenges in my relationship with my eldest daughter is how similar we are, from our physical features to our personality traits.

I understand why she needs to push me away. I behaved identically as a teen.

While we can connect over a shopping excursion (teen girls tend to be nice once a Sephora purchase has been made, at least for a little while), our shared passion for fitness and sport has really brought us together.

Moving together

As a teen, I wanted to become a professional ballerina, spending my days training at the School of American Ballet in Manhattan.

My daughter is a junior county-level cricketer, not a dancer (we live in London), so we both understand the importance of having a passion for something that you want to live and breathe all the time.

Not everyone will understand the focus, discipline, commitment, and sacrifice required, but my daughter reminds me of myself at her age.

Last year, my teen started circuit training as part of her school sports program; I'd begun lifting weights to build strength during perimenopause. We'd work out in the living room, or my daughter would ask me to throw balls in the backyard. Slowly, we found ourselves doing spontaneous fitness sessions, like going for the odd run or heading to the hotel gym together on vacation.

Instead of exploding into a screaming match, we'd often giggle during these gym sessions. My daughter would give me training tips; I'd usually beg her to switch to lighter weights (and she'd ignore me). But somehow, it felt effortless β€” and fun.

These workouts are never about "improving" appearance, though my daughter enjoys hitting a new speed or endurance milestone. We discuss the merits of being strong rather than thin, but we also know that we don't exercise solely for our bodies. With our busy minds, exercise is our happy place β€” calming but energizing, motivating, and grounding.

Learning a new language together

Teenage girlhood often involves rejecting your mother in some way. I'm OK with that, but no matter how many doors get slammed in my face, I want to make sure my kids always know mine is open.

Communication can look different from what we expect. When we work out, my teen and I are mostly silent. Occasionally, I'll ask my daughter what song she's listening to; she'll wonder if she can "borrow" the workout top I'm wearing for our next session.

Sometimes, she'll catch my eye and smile at me in the mirror behind her. Like she knows I'm there to spot her, cheer her, support her β€” in life, as well as in the gym.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump's economic shock therapy

9 March 2025 at 06:37

President Trump believes it's worth risking pain to achieve his medium-term goal of rewiring the U.S. economy. He is attempting a form of economic shock therapy, while accepting there could be collateral damage.

Why it matters: That willingness to shrug off risks of inflation or recession is now rattling financial markets and confidence β€” and has itself emerged as the biggest near-term economic risk.


The administration has embraced that the economic disruption it envisions could be painful.

  • That adds to the risk that if the economy starts to falter β€” and it hasn't so far, at least according to the high-level data β€” no cavalry will be coming from Washington to contain the damage.

The big picture: Trump is seeking to rapidly undo a global economic order that has been decades in the making. Americans enjoyed the fruits of cheap goods made around the world, at the cost of a diminished domestic manufacturing base.

  • He envisions an economy with many fewer bureaucratic paper-pushers and much more factory work.
  • He seeks to bring down the deficit while keeping taxes low β€” which only pencils out if there are major cuts to America's social welfare programs.

Coming "detox": "Could we be seeing this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

  • "There's going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending," Bessent added. "The market and the economy have just become hooked ... We've become addicted to this government spending and there's going to be a detox period."

Context: The mainstream view among Wall Street economists and Fed officials is that Trump inherited an economy that was in basically sound shape.

  • The unemployment rate was low (4% in January). Inflation was far below its recent highs (2.5% for the 12 months ended January).

The Trump team rejects that view completely, arguing that Biden handed over an economy so terrible that it demands a wholesale rebuild. "Biden left him a pile of poop," as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick put it on Bloomberg TV last week.

  • Trump, in this view, inherited an economy in which a seemingly healthy job market is, in fact, illusory.
  • It's true that the federal government has been running budget deficits that are higher β€” 6 to 7% of GDP β€” than ever before seen outside of wars or economic crises.
  • And job growth in recent months has indeed been fueled by hiring in state government employment and health care. The private sector has been in "recession," Bessent has argued.

State of play: Administration officials are increasingly acknowledging the potential costs of the adjustment.

  • If trade wars mean U.S. farmers get shut out of foreign markets they've spent decades building, well, there "may be a little bit of an adjustment period" as Trump said this in this week's Congressional address.
  • What if the stock market drops, hitting Americans' retirement accounts? "I'm not even looking at the market, because long term the United States will be very strong," Trump said this week.

Reality check: Economic change is often painful; just ask the U.S. manufacturing workers who lost their livelihoods amid the China shock of the early 2000s. Trump wants to make changes to the fabric of the global economy at hyperspeed β€” which comes with political peril.

  • Americans really like cheap stuff (though Bessent says that's not the American Dream). Witness the outpour of anger at the inflation and shortages that erupted in the aftermath of the pandemic.
  • It will likely take time for laid off government workers to find their way into new work in growing sector, during which time they are on the jobless rolls.

The bottom line: Americans who voted for Trump seeking a return to the low-inflation, steady-eddy conditions the prevailed in 2019 may be in for a rude awakening.

  • But the president and his advisers believe they have a mandate for big-time change, whatever the costs.

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