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Today โ€” 14 January 2025News

I just took my 2nd cruise with a multigenerational group of women. We've become so close and learned a lot from each other.

14 January 2025 at 02:34
The author, second from right, in a restaurant on the Disney cruise with her group of friends .
The author, second from right, has now gone on two cruises with her multigenerational group of friends.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

  • While my daughter was dating her first boyfriend, I made friends with his mother.
  • I wanted to go on a cruise and invited her, her mother, and her daughter. We had so much fun.
  • We recently took another cruise together even though my daughter and her ex have broken up.

While my 14-year-old daughter was with her first boyfriend, I became close friends with his mom. My teens aren't fans of cruise vacations, so when Disney Cruise Line opened its new private island, Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, and my family didn't want to go, I asked my newest mom friend to come along with me to check it out. We decided to go on a multigenerational cruise โ€” a stateroom made up of myself, my friend, her mother, and her 18-year-old daughter โ€” and it was the most fun cruise I've been on in my entire life, thanks to the company.

My daughter's foray into dating ended with a breakup, like most first relationships do. Thankfully, she and her ex have remained friends, and a few months after their relationship ended, when I wanted to sail on Disney's newest cruise ship, the Disney Treasure, and needed a few good travel buddies, I reached back out to my travel buddies. Again, we traveled as a multi-generational foursome and again, it was incredibly fun and relaxing.

Here's what I love so much about multigenerational travel with girlfriends, and why I'm hoping we cruise many, many more times together in the future.

The best way to get to know others is through travel โ€” and shared interests

The author and her friends aboard the Disney Magic with Captain Mickey.
The author and her friends all love Disney.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

On our first cruise together, I'd never traveled with my friend, her daughter, or her mom and had no idea how the trip would go. Thankfully, we got along great, and I fit right into their family dynamic. We instantly bonded and spent the entirety of the cruise talking, laughing, and getting to know each other better. We left our first cruise with so many great memories that I felt instantly bonded to each of them.

Not only did we travel well together, we had shared interests. I'm someone who's fine with being labeled a "Disney adult," and I appreciate other grown-ups who share my love of Disney magic. As with anything you're passionate about, traveling with a group of people who also value a specific type of experience is pure joy.

From sipping lattes with Disney art aboard the ship to dancing to a Junkanoo show on Lookout Cay with Mickey and his pals, there's something extra enjoyable about experiencing time on a vacation with people who appreciate it instead of teenagers who complain. Disney cruises can be pricey, and enjoying one with a group of people who were genuinely thrilled to be there made everything feel worth it.

I don't have a relationship with my own mother, so borrowing my friend's mom was special

The author and her friends at port before boarding the Disney Magic.
The author and her friends recently took their second cruise together.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

I haven't had a relationship with my own mom for many years, and long ago a therapist told me the best way to deal with the sadness an estrangement sometimes brings is to spend time with other moms you look up to. My friend's mom is one-in-a-million, and getting to take a vacation with her felt really special since I rarely spend time with adult women who are the age of someone who could be my mom. I've learned it's OK to borrow other people's moms as people who I look up to, and traveling twice with this special woman has been a delight.

I laughed so much my stomach hurt

The author and her friends making faces in the haunted mansion.
The author enjoyed being silly with her friends while they traveled together.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

One of my favorite parts of traveling with this group of women was meal time, when we'd sit at a restaurant and talk, sharing stories, giving each other advice, and discussing where we each were at this time in our lives.

In addition to some amazing conversations, we had so many things to laugh about, from silly photos captured by the ship's photographers to inside jokes we'd come up with during our days on the ship. Laughter really is the best medicine, and I left both trips feeling so much joy after cracking up with my friends for several days on end.

We both acted like kids and enjoyed the adults-only areas

The author and her friends in front of the ocean.
They traveled well together and enjoyed acting like kids again.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

While we definitely took advantage of spaces like adults-only pools or restaurants where no kids were allowed while on our Disney cruises, we also made sure to experience the more childlike aspects as well. From watching Disney's Broadway-quality shows each night to seeing fireworks on the ship's upper decks to standing in line to meet characters like Captain Minnie Mouse, my travel party wasn't afraid to embrace their inner children, which made the trip all the more fun. Something I tell my teenage daughter often is that she should find friends who aren't afraid to be silly and who don't take themselves too seriously, so being able to model that for her with my own friendships is important to me.

These women remain some of my closest friends

The author, center, with the women she traveled with and their families, dressed up for the holidays.
The author is still close with the women she traveled with and their families spend time together.

Courtesy of Terri Peters

With two cruises under our belts, I feel more connected than ever to these amazing women, something that's a dream come true for someone like me, who set out recently to make friends who would add more meaning to my life and challenge me to become the best version of myself.

Sailing the seas with three generations of women has taught me a lot about myself, showed me how far I've come in life, and given me things to strive for as I continue to age. In my friend's 18-year-old daughter, I see so much drive and determination, qualities that remind me to keep setting goals for myself and dreaming big, even at age 44.

My friend's mom teaches me bits of wisdom about everything from her secrets to a nearly 50-year marriage to stories about what she learned during her career years. And my friend who's my age? Traveling together has made us even closer and bonded us in a pretty unique way.

What's more, all breakups aside, our families remain close, and the three of them remain some of my dearest friends, so much so that we spend holidays together and are planning more trips as a quartet.

Read the original article on Business Insider

My daughter is in the college search phase. I'm trying to balance helping her without being overbearing.

14 January 2025 at 02:17
mother and daughter looking at a computer
The author's daughter (not pictured) is searching for her perfect college.

Lorado/Getty Images

  • My daughter is in her senior year of high school and in the middle of the college search phase.
  • As her mom, I'm trying to be helpful while letting her lead the way to finding the ideal school.
  • I'm only suggesting schools to visit and reminding her that I'm always here to help.

My daughter is currently in the midst of the college search phase, and with so many college and university options, you might imagine that this journey is both complex and exciting.

As a parent, I want to help make my child's senior year as stress-free as possible by assisting her during the process, but I also want to step back a bit as she begins the transition to adulthood. With this in mind, finding a way to be just the right amount of helpful is so important.

As my second child who's heading to college โ€” her older brother is in his junior year โ€” this isn't my first experience in the college search phase. However, as parents know, each kid in the family is different and has their own distinct style as to how they proceed with tasks and achieve their goals.

During her brother's college search, it was a new experience for all of us โ€” including the path to finding the ideal university plus all of the other important parts of the process, including the application procedures, financial aid steps, and the final step of him narrowing down the options to his chosen school. This time, we have the experience and can pursue the college search phase with a bit more confidence. With that said, it's so important for me to take a step back and let my daughter find a school that works best for her.

I'm letting her apply to schools without setting too many restrictions

The first way I've taken a step back during this college search phase is by letting her apply to a wide array of schools without setting too many restrictions.

Of course, this doesn't mean that every school will be a top choice for her or that we'll be able to afford it. It just gives her more freedom to explore potential schools that may meet her personal requirements for a good fit and gives her peace of mind knowing she's considered different options.

From that point onward, we can discuss the finer details of each school, including the pros and cons and feasibility factors.

I'm suggesting on-campus visits, but enabling her to choose the must-see options

College visits have expanded in options compared to years ago when I went to school. In the past, you could visit the school in person or take a chance that it may be a good fit simply by reading the brochures.

Fast-forward to today, where prospective students have many exploration options, from virtual college visitation sessions to social media.

These are all excellent research options; however, I feel that it's always good to visit the school in person when able to do so. Therefore, I tell my daughter that we should visit as many schools in person as possible, especially if she's really interested in a few specific universities.

That said, she can pick the ones that really interest her, and then we'll go explore those colleges.

I'm still providing feedback with negotiable viewpoints

Although I'll stand back and let my daughter form her own opinions as to the individual schools, I'll always provide feedback.

This doesn't mean my view is the right one or that my feedback contains non-negotiable terms. I just think it's important to provide her with details she may not have thought of and also let her know my thoughts due to my experience and having gone through the college search process on my own โ€” albeit many years ago.

The feedback will also revolve around cost and location. For example, even with access to scholarships and grants, attending certain schools may not be possible due to financial reasons.

I may also want to provide insight into the pros and cons of schools within driving distance versus colleges that require airline travel. In addition, safety factors may also be discussed when comparing different schools. However, I don't want this feedback to be a definitive response but instead talking points to discuss when deciding which universities and colleges may be right for her.

I'm reminding my daughter I'm always here for her

Most importantly, I make it a point to let her know that although she will take the lead in finding her ideal university, I'm always here for her when she needs advice, information, or simply a parent's loving guidance.

As a mom, I'm going into this college search process, hoping to provide the best possible guidance for my daughter as she takes the initial steps toward adulthood while giving her the space to find her way and make her own decisions.

Ultimately, I know that she will choose the college or university that is right for her as she embarks on this new and exciting journey.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Read: Full text of Pete Hegseth's opening statement

14 January 2025 at 02:29

Pete Hegseth, President-elect Trump's controversial pick for secretary of Defense, will have his confirmation hearing Tuesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Why it matters: The former Fox News host and Army combat veteran likely faces a tough hearing due to allegations against him ranging from sexual assault to excessive drinking. Axios has obtained a prepared text of his opening statement.

Read the statement in full:

Thank you Chairman Wicker, Ranking Member Reed, and all members of this Committee for the opportunity today. I am grateful for, and learned a great deal from, this "advise and consent" process. Should I be confirmed, I look forward to working with this Committee โ€” Senators from both parties โ€” to secure our nation.

I want to thank the former Senator from Minnesota, Norm Coleman, for his mentorship and friendship in this process. And the incoming National Security Advisor, Congressman โ€” and more importantlyโ€”Colonel Mike Waltz, for his powerful words. I am grateful for you both.

Thank you to my incredible wife Jennifer, who has changed my life and been with me throughout this entire process. I love you, sweetheart, and I thank God for you. And as Jenny and I pray together each morning, all glory โ€” regardless of the outcome โ€” belongs to our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. His grace and mercy abound each day. May His will be done.

Thank you to my father, Brian, and mother, Penny, as well as my entire family โ€” including our seven wonderful kids: Gunner, Jackson, Peter Boone, Kenzie, Luke, Rex & Gwendolyn. Their future safety and security is in all our hands.

And to all the troops and veterans watching, and in this room โ€” Navy SEALs, Green Berets, Pilots, Sailors, Marines, Gold Stars and more. Too many friends to name. Officers and Enlisted. Black and White. Young and Old. Men and Women. All Americans. All warriors. This hearing is for you. Thank you for figuratively, and literally, having my back. I pledge to do the same for you. All of you.

It is an honor to come before this Committee as President Donald Trump's nominee for the office of Secretary of Defense. Two months ago, 77 million Americans gave President Trump a powerful mandate for change. To put America First โ€” at home and abroad.

I want to thank President Trump for his faith in me, and his selfless leadership of our great Republic. The troops could have no better Commander-in-Chief than Donald Trump.

As I've said to many of you in our private meetings, when President Trump chose me for this position, the primary charge he gave me was โ€” to bring the warrior culture back to the Department of Defense. He, like me, wants a Pentagon laser-focused on warfighting, lethality, meritocracy, standards, and readiness. That's it. That is my job.

To that end, if confirmed, I'm going to work with President Trump โ€” and this committee โ€” to:

  1. Restore the Warrior Ethos to the Pentagon and throughout our fighting force; in doing so, we will reestablish trust in our military โ€” and address the recruiting, retention and readiness crisis in our ranks. The strength of our military is our unity โ€” our shared purpose โ€” not our differences.
  2. Rebuild our Military, always matching threats to capabilities; this includes reviving our defense industrial base, reforming the acquisition process (no more "Valley of Death" for new defense companies), modernizing our nuclear triad, ensuring the Pentagon can pass an audit, and rapidly fielding emerging technologies.
  3. Reestablish Deterrence. First and foremost, we will defend our homeland โ€” our borders and our skies. Second, we will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the communist Chinese. Finally, we will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources โ€” and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on "reputational deterrence" โ€” we need real deterrence.

The Defense Department under Donald Trump will achieve Peace Through Strength. And in pursuing these America First national security goals, we will remain patriotically a-political and stridently Constitutional. Unlike the current administration, politics should play no part in military matters. We are not Republicans or Democrats โ€” we are American warriors. Our standards will be high, and they will be equal (not equitable, that is a very different word).

We need to make sure every warrior is fully qualified on their assigned weapon system, every pilot is fully qualified and current on the aircraft they are flying, and every general or flag officer is selected for leadership based purely on performance, readiness, and merit.

Leaders โ€” at all levels โ€” will be held accountable. And warfighting and lethality โ€” and the readiness of the troops and their families โ€” will be our only focus.

That has been my focus ever since I first put on the uniform as a young Army ROTC cadet at Princeton University in 2001. I joined the military because I love my country and felt an obligation to defend it. I served with incredible Americans in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan and in the streets of Washington, D.C. โ€” many of which are here today. This includes enlisted soldiers I helped become American citizens, and Muslim allies I helped immigrate from Iraq and Afghanistan. And when I took off the uniform, my mission never stopped.

It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense Secretaries of the last 30 years. But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly "the right credentials" โ€” whether they are retired generals, academics, or defense contractor executives โ€” and where has it gotten us? He believes, and I humbly agree, that it's time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm. A change agent. Someone with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives.

My only special interest is โ€” the warfighter. Deterring wars, and if called upon, winning wars โ€” by ensuring our warriors never enter a fair fight. We let them win and then bring them home. Like many of my generation, I've been there. I've led troops in combatโ€ฆbeen on patrol for days โ€ฆ pulled a trigger downrange โ€ฆ heard bullets whiz by โ€ฆ flex-cuffed insurgents โ€ฆ called in close air support โ€ฆ led medevacs โ€ฆ dodged IEDs โ€ฆ pulled out dead bodies โ€ฆ and knelt before a battlefield cross. This is not academic for me; this is my life. I led then, and I will lead now.

Ask anyone who has ever worked with me โ€” or for me. I know what I don't know. My success as a leader โ€ฆ and I very much look forward to discussing our many successes at my previous organizations, Vets for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America. I'm incredibly proud of the work we did. My success as a leader โ€ฆ has always been setting a clear vision, hiring people smarter and more capable than me, empowering them to succeed, holding everyone accountable, and driving toward clear metrics. Build the plan. Work the plan. And then work harder than everyone around you.

The President has given me a clear vision, and I will execute. I've sworn an oath to the Constitution before, and โ€” if confirmed โ€” will proudly do it again. This time, for the most important deployment of my life.

I pledge to be a faithful partner to this committee. Taking input and respecting oversight. We share the same goals: a ready, lethal military; the health and well-being of our troops; and a strong and secure America.

Thank you for your time, and I look forward to your questions.

Scoop: Hegseth pledges to restore Pentagon "warrior ethos" in opening statement

14 January 2025 at 02:29

Pete Hegseth admits he's an unorthodox pick to lead the Pentagon โ€” but says it's "time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm," according to his opening statement, obtained by Axios, for his confirmation hearing Tuesday.

  • Hegseth, one of President-elect Trump's most controversial Cabinet choices, plans to tell the Senate Armed Services Committee that he'll "[r]estore the warrior ethos to the Pentagon," give "new defense companies" a better chance to win contracts, and rapidly deploy emerging technologies.

Why it matters: Hegseth, 44 โ€” a former Fox News host (where he made $2.3 million a year) who's a decorated Army combat veteran โ€” has faced a barrage of allegations since Trump announced the surprise selection. They include an accusation of sexual assault and allegations of excessive drinking. A seven-year-old email from his mom, which she quickly recanted, said he routinely mistreated women.

So Hegseth, who calls his selection for Defense secretary "the most important deployment of my life," can expect a grueling hearing: Republicans tell us they expect Democratic senators will try to embarrass him and Trump.

  • But GOP senators, some initially skeptical, indicate Hegseth is on track for confirmation.
  • The hearing room will be jammed with supporters from all phases of Hegseth's life.

The big picture: The opening statement doesn't directly address the allegations. Hegseth says in his testimony: "It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense secretaries of the last 30 years."

  • "But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly 'the right credentials' โ€” whether they are retired generals, academics or defense contractor executives โ€” and where has it gotten us?"
  • "He believes, and I humbly agree, that it's time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm. A change agent. Someone with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives."
  • Hegseth says his "only special interest is โ€” the warfighter."

The backstory: Hegseth is "not pretending to be a standard issue SECDEF and wears that as a badge of honor," a source familiar with his thinking tells Axios.

  • "The standard-issue SECDEFs have degraded our readiness, our lethality and our ability to win wars. There's never been a singular focus on the warfighter, and that's why we're losing wars and deterrence capabilities."

Zoom in: Hegseth, a fierce DEI opponent, bluntly opposed women serving in combat roles in the military. But he softened that view during meetings with senators, saying he supports "all women serving in our military today."

  • Hegseth also has suggested that Gen. Charles Q. Brown, the first Black chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be fired over the Pentagon's efforts to diversify its ranks.
  • Brown and outgoing Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a decorated four-star general who also is Black, have rebuked the notion that the Pentagon has undermined its combat readiness with its focus on diversity.

"[W]e are American warriors," Hegseth says in his opening statement. "Our standards will be high, and they will be equal (not equitable, that is a very different word)," he continues.

  • "We need to make sure every warrior is fully qualified on their assigned weapon system, every pilot is fully qualified and current on the aircraft they are flying, and every general or flag officer is selected for leadership based purely on performance, readiness and merit."

Zoom out: Hegseth strikes an uncharacteristically humble, bipartisan tone in his opener, saying he looks "forward to working with this committee โ€” senators from both parties โ€” to secure our nation."

  • Hegseth โ€” who became famous among conservatives as a "Fox & Friends Weekend" host, and is a bestselling author โ€” is an Army veteran of Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, and earned two Bronze Stars and a Combat Infantryman's Badge.

Between the lines: Hegseth, who's been married three times, portrays himself as a family man and devout Christian. He acknowledged in an interview with Megyn Kelly that he was a "serial cheater" before he found Christ.

  • "Thank you to my incredible wife Jennifer, who has changed my life and been with me throughout this entire process," his testimony says. "I love you, sweetheart, and I thank God for you. And as Jenny and I pray together each morning, all glory โ€” regardless of the outcome โ€” belongs to our Lord and savior Jesus Christ. His grace and mercy abound each day. May His will be done."
  • Naming his "seven wonderful kids, Hegseth adds: "Their future safety and security is in all our hands."

Hegseth emphasizes his popularity with many in uniform, saluting "all the troops and veterans watching, and in this room โ€” Navy SEALs, Green Berets, pilots, sailors, Marines, Gold Stars and more. Too many friends to name. Officers and enlisted. Black and white. Young and old. Men and women. All Americans. All warriors."

  • "This hearing is for you," he says. "Thank you for figuratively, and literally, having my back. I pledge to do the same for you. All of you."

Zoom in: Hegseth lists his three top missions as head of America's largest government agency.

  1. "Restore the warrior ethos to the Pentagon and throughout our fighting force; in doing so, we will reestablish trust in our military โ€” and address the recruiting, retention and readiness crisis in our ranks. The strength of our military is our unity โ€” our shared purpose โ€” not our differences."
  2. "Rebuild our military, always matching threats to capabilities; this includes reviving our defense industrial base, reforming the acquisition process (no more 'Valley of Death' for new defense companies), modernizing our nuclear triad ... and rapidly fielding emerging technologies."
  3. "Reestablish deterrence. First and foremost, we will defend our homeland ... Second, we will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the communist Chinese. Finally, we will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources โ€” and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on 'reputational deterrence' โ€” we need real deterrence."

In a dig at the Biden administration, Hegseth vows that the Defense Department under Trump "will achieve peace through strength" and "will remain patriotically apolitical and stridently constitutional. Unlike the current administration."

  • "Leaders โ€” at all levels โ€” will be held accountable. And warfighting and lethality โ€” and the readiness of the troops and their families โ€” will be our only focus."

"That has been my focus ever since I first put on the uniform as a young Army ROTC cadet at Princeton University in 2001," Hegseth adds. "I served with incredible Americans in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan and in the streets of Washington, D.C."

  • "This includes enlisted soldiers I helped become American citizens, and Muslim allies I helped immigrate from Iraq and Afghanistan. And when I took off the uniform, my mission never stopped."

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Trump picks historically young group of top aides, Cabinet officials

14 January 2025 at 02:24
Note: Compares President-elect Trump's selections for top Cabinet positions, which still have to go through a confirmation process, to seated Cabinet members for past presidents. Data: Axios research; Chart: Axios Visuals

Donald Trump is about to become the oldest person ever sworn in as president โ€” but he hopes to have the youngest group of top Cabinet officials and advisers of any president in more than three decades.

Why it matters: Even as he's sought to regain his grip on power, the once and future president has tried to build the next generation of his MAGA movement, as seen in his choice of JD Vance, 40, as his vice president.


Driving the news: The average age of Trump's picks for VP, chief of staff, attorney general and secretaries of State, Treasury and Defense is 54.1 โ€” the youngest since the start of George H.W. Bush's presidency in 1989, an Axios analysis found.

  • The elder Bush โ€” who was 64 when he took the oath of office โ€” had a top staff with an average age of 51.5, the youngest in nearly half a century.
  • Like Trump, Bush also picked a considerably younger VP: Dan Quayle, then 41.

Between the lines: The Cabinet Trump envisions is an average of five years younger than his Cabinet at the start of his first term in 2017.

  • Vance will be the third-youngest VP in U.S. history.
  • If confirmed, Pete Hegseth, 44, would be the youngest Defense secretary since Donald Rumsfeld during the Ford administration. Rumsfeld served at 43.
  • Outside of the core Cabinet positions, Trump chose Elise Stefanik, 40, and Tulsi Gabbard, 43, for top government roles.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy, 39, will also have a strong voice within the next administration as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency along with Elon Musk, 53.

Zoom in: Trump's chief of staff, Florida politics veteran Susie Wiles, is slightly older than most recent chiefs of staff at 67.

  • But Trump has filled other key White House positions with a crop of young advisers.
  • Stephen Miller, 39, will be deputy chief of staff for policy.
  • Karoline Leavitt, 27, is poised to be the youngest White House press secretary in history.

Zoom out: Age was a central theme of the 2024 campaign, with voters having deep concerns about President Biden's ability to start a four-year term at 82.

  • Biden's disastrous debate performance in June led to Vice President Harris, 60, replacing him at the top of the Democratic ticket.
  • In the campaign's aftermath, the Democratic Party has grappled with calls for generational change within its top ranks.

The bottom line: Trump has broken the mold with many of his top Cabinet picks, often elevating loyalists who don't have significant relevant experience for their new roles.

Go deeper: Trump's Cabinet disruptors soften key views as hearings loom

I quit my job to be a stay-at-home dad. Staying home with my sons is more important to me than money.

14 January 2025 at 02:05
a man holds his baby on a front carrier
Daniel Peebles and his older son.

Courtesy of Daniel and Courtney Peebles

  • Daniel Peebles left his film career to care for his two sons, one with special needs, full-time.
  • Peebles' wife, Courtney, started a toy business in 2023, which she runs full-time from their home.
  • The family business, Solobo, supports them now as Peebles embraces stay-at-home dad life.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Daniel Peebles, a 27-year-old stay-at-home dad in Arizona. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

While I was growing up with my dad in Virginia Beach, he would surf often. When I was eight, he asked me to start filming him surfing.

I learned to love telling stories, and as I got older, I picked up the camera again to make videos for my family and friends in our town for $100 each.

I grew that into a successful film career, but I quit to stay home and care for my two children, one with special needs, while my wife runs a company.

When I was 18, I started making real money with film projects

I decided not to go to college because I knew what I wanted to do for a career. At first, filming was just a hobby, but I started to get serious and charge more.

Through word of mouth, local businesses in our area contacted me to ask if I offered filming and editing services. I charged local companies between $1,000 and $3,000 per project.

I met the woman who would become my wife in 2017

a couple pose on a boat on their wedding day
Peebles and his wife, Courtney.

Courtesy of Daniel and Courtney Peebles

Courtney was working as a producer at a mega church. We worked together on film projects and hit it off. We married in 2018 and moved in together.

I realized that the film projects I was doing here and there would not be enough income for a family โ€” I needed a real job.

In 2018, I worked for six months at a mortgage company. Courtney was a multimedia specialist at the time. We were making good money but were miserable and wanted to spend more time together. We both quit at the end of that year.

I went back to freelancing for film projects in 2019

Our firstborn son was born in December. Courtney stayed home with our son, and I picked up freelance film work, but I lost all my film clients when the pandemic hit. Since opportunities were scarce, I networked and got a full-time job as a film director at Ironclad.

I was grateful for the work and the $80,000 salary. With bonuses, it was well into the six figures annually. Our second son was then born in May 2021.

My youngest son was diagnosed with cerebral palsy, which meant a lot of care

a man sits on the floor and plays with his son
Peebles and his younger son.

Courtesy of Daniel and Courtney Peebles

I traveled constantly. There were some weeks where I was gone three weeks out of the month. Every time I left home, I felt a ping because I didn't want my sons to grow up with a dad who wasn't around.

After my son's diagnosis, I started scaling back and moved into more post-production, which kept me at home.

My son requires supervision at all times and is on long-term care through our state. I'm the registered provider under the program. If I weren't registered, attendants would come to our home whenever needed.

Courtney became frustrated with our youngest son's toys

Courtney found that the toy industry lacks toys for neurodivergent kids. My youngest son had a lot of mobility issues with his hands. She couldn't find any toys to help him with those movements.

She started making things just out of cardboard, and then she kept having more ideas. Courtney started Solobo LLC, our family toy business, in March 2023. We invested $10,000 we had saved into prototypes.

At first, she worked on product creation, marketing, sales, and logistics for the business at night while I worked during the day.

We decided I would quit my job and let Courtney pursue her dream

As the business grew, I told Courtney how miserable I was being away from her and the boys, and we talked about her passion for the business. I hesitated about becoming a stay-at-home dad, but it seemed to be the right choice.

I was on my way to becoming the lead director of production when I quit my job at Ironclad in June 2023. I took the leap even though we had no savings at that point.

My dad traveled a lot for work while I was growing up, and I didn't get to see him as much as I wanted to. Staying home with my sons was more important to me than the money.

My day-to-day life as a stay-at-home dad is totally different

a man holds his son on his shoulders in a forest
Peebles and his older son.

Courtesy of Daniel and Courtney Peebles

One of my kids wakes me up โ€” they're my alarm. I get up and cook breakfast for the family. Courtney goes upstairs to work while I play with the boys.

We have activities a few times a week. I teach them practical things, like how to swim. The boys go to school a few times a week, too โ€” it's an inclusive learning space through play.

I help Courtney with fulfillment coordination, inventory, and logistics at night. We have a few regular subcontractors and a team of pediatric experts.

Money is tight at times, but the business pays our bills

Our relationship has become stronger. Courtney and I first met through work, so it's cool to be working with my best friend again. I get the privilege of spending more time with my boys than most dads, and it's beautiful.

I've had people approach me who are genuinely puzzled that Courtney and I don't get tired of always being around each other. We work, laugh, cry, and dream together, and I wouldn't have it any different.

How I grew up โ€” dads work, moms stay home โ€” I felt there was a stigma for stay-at-home dads, but I did it anyway. I can see how we're building a better future for our boys.

The toy business continues to grow

I love the stay-at-home dad life. The only reason I would consider returning to work depends on the level of care our son needs (as he gets older) and where our business is by then.

Everyone thought I was crazy when I quit my film industry job to become a stay-at-home dad, but it was the best decision for our family.

Read the original article on Business Insider

'Ghost job' ads are one reason finding a new role can be 'soul-crushing,' says Greenhouse exec

14 January 2025 at 02:01
A woman's reflection in an office window, overlooking a city landscape
The perfect job listing you see online might not actually exist.

FangXiaNuo/Getty Images

  • About a fifth of recruitment ads in 2024 were "ghost jobs," a Greenhouse report found.
  • Ghost jobs frustrate candidates and erode trust, but hiring managers continue to see the benefits.
  • Greenhouse and LinkedIn now offer verification features to help identify potential ghost jobs.

Everyone has a story about a role they thought they were perfect for, only to hear nothing back or be ghosted later on.

You may have even been love-bombed during an interview and told you were the ideal candidate, only for it to be crickets afterward.

Greenhouse may have an explanation. It found that between 18% and 22% of jobs listed with it in 2024 were appeals for new workers that never actually got filled.

The hiring platform surveyed 2,500 workers across the US, UK, and Germany, finding that three in five candidates suspected they had encountered a "ghost job."

In analyzing the data, Greenhouse found that about a fifth of the jobs posted on its platform could be classified this way โ€” jobs that go up on boards but don't actually exist.

"The data highlights a troubling reality โ€” the job market has become more soul-crushing than ever," Jon Stross, Greenhouse's president and cofounder, said in a statement.

Spotting a fake job ad

Ghost jobs are not a new phenomenon. Business Insider reported in 2022 on a survey of 1,000 hiring managers conducted by the lending firm Clarify Capital. Half of managers said they kept job postings live even when they weren't actively recruiting because they were "always open to new people."

A Resume Builder survey last May found that seven in 10 hiring managers also think it's "morally acceptable" to post ghost jobs, while three in 10 companies have posted fake listings.

Other reasons for putting up these ads include giving the impression of company growth, placating frustrated staff members, or holding out hope for the perfect "unicorn" candidate.

While hiring managers may see the benefit, in reality, ghost jobs frustrate candidates and erode trust in the process, BI's Tim Paradis reported last year.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in response to persisting ghost jobs, Greenhouse and LinkedIn now have a verification feature to help candidates weed out ads that may be a waste of time.

Some ways to identify a ghost job, BI previously reported, include it being up for 30 days or more, can no longer be found on the company's website, or a vague description of the role and its requirements.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Donald Trump launched his career with this hotel. Now as president, he could decide its future.

14 January 2025 at 02:00
Photo collage featuring Donald Trump in front of a photo of 42nd Street traffic and a view of Hyatt hotel, and circles with money pattern

Sarah Meyssonnier/AP Images; Lindsey Nicholson/Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI

  • Almost 50 years ago, a young Donald Trump had a career breakthrough redeveloping a NYC hotel.
  • Now, developers want to replace the property with the country's most expensive tower.
  • The project's builders need almost $5 billion of federal loans to do it.

Donald Trump was a young developer eager to make a name for himself in the Manhattan real estate industry when he struck a career-making deal to redevelop the Commodore Hotel next to Grand Central Terminal into a 1,300-room Grand Hyatt clad in dark glass.

Nearly half a century later, Trump may again have an opportunity to play a role in the site's destiny when he returns to the White House.

New York developers RXR and TF Cornerstone have proposed leveling the property and raising a 1,575-foot-tall office and hotel tower in its place that would cost as much as $6.5 billion to construct. It would be both the tallest skyscraper by roof height ever built in America as well as the most expensive.

Renderings of the mega-tower show how it will dwarf surrounding structures, including the neighboring landmark Chrysler Building and even a new headquarters tower being built nearby for JPMorgan Chase.

As part of the work, the pair have imagined making improvements to portions of the historic neighboring train terminal and the subway station below the site.

A rendering of a proposed skyscraper near the Chrysler Building in Midtown Manhattan.
175 Park, center, would tower over neighboring skyscrapers, including the Chrysler Building.

RXR

To help pay for the immense project โ€” called 175 Park Avenue โ€” the developers are taking an unusual approach at a moment when lenders have remained wary to finance such large-scale office development.

The property was recently included on a list of mostly transportation related projects that are seeking access to federal money earmarked for transit infrastructure development and upgrades.

RXR and TF Cornerstone are planning to apply for as much as $4.84 billion of federal loans to help pay for the tower, according to the document. The developers expect to spend as much as $6.5 billion on the project, a sum that includes about $550 million of accompanying transit improvements they will make as part of the project. The team is listed as having submitted a draft letter of interest in the federal money, a preliminary and non-binding step in applying for the funding.

The federal money is discretionary and administered by the US Department of Transportation, meaning that the incoming Trump administration โ€” and possibly even the president himself โ€” will have decision-making authority over which projects are ultimately awarded.

"I would expect he'd be supportive and excited about it, and obviously at the appropriate time we're going to be reaching out," Scott Rechler, the CEO and chairman of RXR, said, noting that he hadn't yet attempted to discuss the tower project with the president-elect or anyone in his circle. "He understands office buildings better than any president before."

A shortage of capital for office development

Rechler said the project team behind 175 Park Avenue is exploring the federal loans because of lingering dislocations in the lending market that have made it difficult to source financing from private sector lenders.

Banks, life insurance companies, debt funds, and other sources of mortgage debt have pulled away from office financing as a result of concerns about the stresses of higher interest rates on property values and vacancies created by the enduring popularity of hybrid and remote work.

Trey Morsbach, an executive managing director at JLL who co-leads the firm's real estate debt advisory practice, said that multi-billion-dollar office projects are tricky to finance even during favorable leasing and lending conditions, requiring collections of lenders to divide the loan and spread their risk.

One Vanderbilt, a roughly 1,400-foot-tall tower that opened in 2020 on the other side of Grand Central Terminal from 175 Park Avenue, for instance, received a $1.5 billion construction loan from a group of six banks in 2016 in order to proceed.

Morsbach said that lenders were still funding office construction today, in large part because there is a growing belief that newly built, high-end spaces will outperform the broader market. The pool of active financing groups has shrunk, however, challenging deals like 175 Park Avenue that rely on lending consortiums and benefit from market depth.

Lenders "are interested, but just aren't willing to commit the same scale," Morsbach said.

An unused pot of tens of billions of federal dollars

RXR and TF Cornerstone are aiming to tap lending programs called the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act and Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing. The programs, known by their acronyms Tifia and Rrif, respectively, offer projects access to low-cost financing and long payback periods stretching 35 years or more.

The cost benefits of sourcing a loan at the scale necessary to fund the construction of 175 Park Avenue from the federal government versus the private market would be "absolutely astronomical" for the developers, according to Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, the Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate at Columbia Business School.

Although the programs are aimed at transit upgrades, they were updated as part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 to allow funding for private development located "within a half mile walking distance of transit โ€” commuter and intercity passenger rail stations," according to a DOT spokeswoman.

Few builders, however, have tapped the money, even though the Rrif program holds about $30 billion of unused funds, in part, because of the tedious qualification process.

To receive the financing, the 175 Park Avenue project must receive an investment grade credit rating from a major ratings agency and pass through a federal environmental review.

"It's extremely cumbersome to access that money," Van Nieuwerburgh said.

Scott Rechler, center, in a group of men in hard hats and lime-green jackets and vests.
Scott Rechler, second from right

Mark Lennihan/AP

There has been optimism in the commercial real estate industry that the Trump administration will be more accommodative of business, including by stripping back regulation.

"Donald Trump comes in, his team cuts through the red tape, navigates through and unleashes a $6 billion project that's going to improve transit, create the biggest building in the Western hemisphere," Rechler said of 175 Park Avenue's potential appeal to the president-elect. "It speaks to a lot of his policies and the administration's approach to wanting to get things done."

Unflattering politics

Rechler, however, was for years closely aligned politically with former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo โ€” a Democrat and nemesis of Trump's during his first term in the White House.

Rechler, who noted he is a registered independent, is hoping that economic development will prevail over politics.

But a person who is in line to become a Trump administration official said that Rechler's past associations may not be lost on the new administration.

"I'm not speaking for Trump, but I would be in utter shock if the transportation department, which must oversee the railroads, if they signed off on that deal," the person said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

An employee told me he was quitting to join OpenAI in 2016. I said it was a bad idea. Now he's an AI billionaire.

14 January 2025 at 02:00
Jack Clark, cofounder of AI startup Anthropic
Jack Clark, cofounder of AI startup Anthropic

ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP via Getty Images

  • Jack Clark was a reporter at Bloomberg when I was an editor there.
  • He told me he was quitting to join OpenAI in 2016.
  • I told him that was a terrible idea. The rest is history.

In 2016, Jack Clark walked up to me in Bloomberg's San Francisco newsroom and asked if we could go for a walk. As an editor, it's often not good when one of your reporters makes a request like this.

Sure enough, as we sat on a bench looking over the Bay Bridge, Jack told me he was quitting to join a nonprofit called OpenAI.

I said this was a terrible idea. OpenAI was less than a year old at the time and was still a relatively obscure AI research group. Its major claim to fame was Elon Musk's (uneven) financial support.

I pressed my case. As a reporter on Bloomberg's Big Tech team, Jack had a pretty stable job. In contrast, OpenAI didn't seem to have much of a direction, and I couldn't see a path for it to become financially sustainable beyond asking Musk for more money. I selfishly also wanted Jack to stay at Bloomberg and keep covering Google and AI, which he was good at.

I thought I was pretty persuasive, but Jack ignored me and left.

"Just read the research papers"

Jack Clark Anthropic
Jack Clark

Stefani Reynolds/Getty Images

He went on to be an influential expert and advisor on AI safety and related topics, co-authoring several AI research papers. Jack also built one of the most popular AI email newsletters, called Import AI, which researchers widely follow in the field. He still writes this regularly.

He often told me to "just read the research papers" when I asked how to learn more about AI and get better stories about the technology. He was right. There's a lot of valuable information buried in these papers.

Jack stayed at OpenAI for over four years, doing strategy and communications before becoming a policy director. He may have gotten some equity in that startup, but I'm not sure.

Then, in 2020, he left OpenAI and I didn't hear from him for a while. He popped up a few months later as one of seven cofounders of Anthropic, which was started by a bunch of early OpenAI employees.

Cofounders reminisce

Anthropic is now challenging OpenAI at the forefront of generative AI and large language models. It's backed by Amazon and Google, along with several top venture capital firms.

The cofounders got together last month to talk about the start of Anthropic. Jack holds court with his colleagues, who reminisce about the early days.

"I met Dario in 2015 when I went to a conference you were at, and I tried to interview you, and Google PR said I would've read all of your research papers," Jack says to Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, who used to work at Google.

"I think I was writing 'Concrete problems in AI safety' when I was at Google," Amodei replies. "I think you wrote a story about that paper."

"I did," Jack says, with a cheeky smile.

Not his style

Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic was raising money at a $60 billion valuation. Then, Forbes reported that the seven cofounders, including Jack, are set to become billionaires.

I asked Jack about this last week and said I wanted to interview him for a story. 

"Haha, Ali, thanks, but really not my style," he replied.

It's true. Jack is among the gentlest, kindest, and most self-deprecating people I've ever met. He's not classic billionaire material. 

I'm still stunned and trying to process his new situation. What I do know is that Jack's decision to ignore me was a testament to his passion, single-mindedness, and vision.

Back in 2015, when very few people thought about AI, he was obsessed with it and was constantly pushing to write about the technology at Bloomberg. 

Jack knew that AI was important. When his chance came, he took a risk and went for it.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Mark Zuckerberg says he wants more 'masculine energy' at Meta. So, why don't more men use Facebook?

14 January 2025 at 01:59
Pumped up Facebook logo.
 

Facebook; Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI

  • Mark Zuckerberg wants more "masculine energy" at Meta. There's some disconnect with the user base.
  • In the US, 61% of men use Facebook โ€” while 78% of women do.
  • Academic studies suggest men and women view frequent posting to social media as a less masculine trait.

Mark Zuckerberg said he thinks Meta needs more "masculine energy" and that the company's culture has been "neutered" in the last few years.

There might be a disconnect between Zuckerberg's ambitions โ€” which he shared on Joe Rogan's podcast last week โ€” and the actual social platforms he runs. In the US, more women use Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp than men. (Global numbers aren't available.)

Facebook โ€” still the most popular social network โ€” is where the gender divide gets even more obvious. A 2024 Pew Research Center report on social media use showed that 61% of adult men in the US used Facebook "at all," while 78% of adult women did. That 17-point difference is greater than the divide between men's and women's use of any other social network except Pinterest.

If you look back at a similar 2013 Pew report, 66% of men and 72% of women used Facebook. However, the most current metric is slightly different, measuring internet-using adults, not all adults. But even a decade ago, there was still a noticeable gap between the genders โ€” and it's gotten bigger.

Quite simply, Facebook is in some way a women's platform โ€” or at least it leans that way.

Now, of course, it's an exaggeration to say that men "don't" use Facebook โ€” a majority of them say they use it or have an account.

But that doesn't tell us how they're using it, exactly โ€” if they're frequently posting or engaging or just checking in once a month. I don't have data about which gender actually uses Facebook more, but I have some ideas based on both research and my own anecdotal experience that suggest that women are driving the daily conversations on the platform.

It's important to note that these stats are for US users, which makes up only a fraction of the 3 billion-plus users. Globally, the gender breakdown may be quite different; Meta doesn't release its own statistics on gender and declined to comment for this story.

So why don't more men use Facebook?

Why do more women than men use Facebook? I have some theories, some of which are sweeping generalizations about gender โ€” like that some men don't find as much value or pleasure in keeping up with old acquaintances as women do.

You can see in the Pew study that other platforms like X (Twitter) and Reddit have more male users. This doesn't seem surprising at all, and you can probably come up with some easy theories in your mind right now as to why.

For our purposes, we're talking about traditional gender roles here. (I recognize the irony in talking about gender this way when Meta has just changed its content rules to allow for more hateful rhetoric about trans people). I am sure that there are many people out there โ€” perhaps even you, dear reader โ€” who don't use Facebook this way and can't relate to any of this. That's OK.

Frequent posting on social media is perceived as "feminine"

Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg celebrated his 40th birthday on May 14, 2024.

@zuck via Instagram

There is some interesting academic research that can help us try to make sense of this female energy. A study published last year looked into perceptions of masculinity and the use of social media. Participants were to rate the masculinity or femininity of a person who posts either frequently or infrequently. What they found was that consistently, people rated men who post frequently as being less masculine.

Andrew Edelblum, assistant professor of marketing at the University of Dayton, who authored the paper, and his coauthor tried different "bias-breakers" in their surveys: What if the man wasn't posting about himself but posting about other people? Or what if the man was posting not as a regular person but as a professional influencer who was doing it for work? They found that the perception remained the same โ€” frequent posting was viewed as feminine.

Perhaps men, sensing this perception, stop themselves from being active on Facebook.

"What we found is, and we're drawing on, what at this point is kind of a well-known phenomenon of 'precarious manhood,'" Edelblum told Business Insider. "It's essentially the idea that 'man card' credentials are really hard to gain but very easy to lose."

Anecdotally, I have noticed that Facebook seems to be predominantly used by women. My male friends rarely use Facebook, and as I poke around many corners of the platform, either for professional or personal reasons, I tend to see fewer men posting in groups or even listing things on Marketplace.

I'm incredibly active on Facebook โ€” I spend hours there a week, mainly in groups that are nearly all women โ€” groups for parenting, fans of "Vanderpump Rules," shopping, or decorating (now that I think about it, perhaps Facebook being a matriarchal society is why I have more unregretted user seconds spent on there than, say, X).

I also see some well-worn gendered division of household labor dynamics play out: For example, my kid's school has an active Facebook Group, but it's almost all moms. Same with a group for hiring local babysitters. Even a non-gendered general local town group or a Buy Nothing group seems to be mainly used by women.

My husband deactivated his own Facebook account in 2009 after deciding it was "uncool," but I recently whined to him that it was unfair that I had to be the sole Facebook admin for the family. (He made a new account with a fake name so he can browse Marketplace at least.)

So what does this mean?

Mark Zuckerberg's comment about wanting more "masculine energy" was about his company's internal culture and the need to be more aggressive instead of accommodating external critics.

This has seemed to play out in some ways that appear boorish, like removing the tampons in the men's bathrooms that were meant to accommodate a handful of trans or nonbinary employees and visitors.

I do wonder if part of Zuckberg's apparent personal King of the Bros rebrand is hoping to entice younger men back to Facebook, trying to demonstrate that you can be both masculine and a frequent Facebook poster.

It seems that his comments and his actions aren't really meant for the nosy housewives who are among the biggest users of his platforms. His peacocking, new politics, and Joe Rogan appearances are meant for Silicon Valley workers who work at or invest in his products โ€” and many of them seem to love it.

But somewhere, I do worry that people have forgotten something that seems clear to me: Facebook is powered by feminine energy.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Barbara Corcoran's luxury trailer burned down in the LA fires — and she donated $100,000 to neighbors who also lost their homes

14 January 2025 at 01:48
"Shark Tank" investor Barbara Corcoran.
Barbara Corcoran aims to raise $600,000 for residents of a mobile home park that burned down during the LA fires.

Christopher Willard via Getty Images

  • "Shark Tank" investor Barbara Corcoran is one of many celebrities to lose homes in the LA wildfires.
  • Her property was in a mobile home community in Pacific Palisades that's been razed to the ground.
  • She spent $150,000 renovating the trailer, which she called her "Taj Mahal."

The oceanfront mobile home that TV star and real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran spent hundreds of thousands renovating burned down during the Los Angeles fires.

The "Shark Tank" investor, 75, is among a growing list of celebrities and Hollywood A-listers to lose homes in the fires that continue to cause havoc in Los Angeles.

Corcoran's spokesperson confirmed to Business Insider that her two-and-a-half bedroom trailer, located within the Tahitian Terrace mobile home community in Pacific Palisades, was razed to the ground by the flames and that she has launched a GoFundMe page to raise funds for the residents.

Fire personnel respond to homes destroyed while a helicopter drops water as the Palisades Fire grows in Pacific Palisades, California on January 7, 2025.
Fires destroyed many homes in Pacific Palisades.

David Swanson / AFP

"I'm absolutely heartbroken about the mass devastation throughout Los Angeles," Corcoran said in a statement to BI. "Pacific Palisades and the Tahitian Terrace community in particular is a little slice of heaven."

Corcoran said she owned her home in the community for five years, during which she befriended many neighbors.

The park was originally built in 1963 and comprised 250 "manufactured homes," according to real estate group Compass.

"Many of the residents, most of them elderly, had built their lives here over many decades and planned to live out their retirement here," Corcoran added. "They've lost absolutely everything."

Composite image of Barbara Corcoran with a video screengrab depicting the exterior of her trailer home.
Barbara Corcoran and a screengrab of her trailer home before it was destroyed by wildfires.

Christopher Willard via Getty Images; Caleb Simpson

Corcoran's GoFundMe has raised more than $145,000 toward her goal of $600,000. She herself donated $100,000.

In 2023, a tour Corcoran gave of her mobile home, which has unobstructed views of the Pacific Ocean, went viral.

Shared by TikToker Caleb Simpson, who is known for posting videos of unique homes, the video included Corcoran joking that her trailer was her "Taj Mahal."

Corcoran said she bought the property for $800,000 and spent another $150,000 on renovations, including a pricey freestanding bathtub. "You're in a million-dollar home," she added.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Why LA wildfires forecasts alone couldn't stop the death toll

14 January 2025 at 02:00

The deadly Los Angeles area fires show what can go horribly wrong even when weather forecasts and warnings prove eerily prescient.

Why it matters: Weather forecasters are struggling with how to communicate the dangers of extreme weather events as those events increase in frequency and ferocity with human-caused climate change.


  • This involves a mix of meteorology and climate science, along with social science research into how people respond to warning language and official advice.

The big picture: It's unclear if the public fully grasps the meaning of the National Weather Service's fire weather warnings or the criteria behind its terms, Stephen Bieda, chief of the service's Severe, Fire, Public and Winter Weather Services Branch, told Axios.

  • "There is a larger-scale conversation going on" about better aligning NWS' products with input from communications and social science professionals, he said.

Zoom in: There are some eerie similarities between the firestorm that began to engulf portions of LA County on Jan. 7 and recent hurricanes โ€” such as Ian and Helene โ€” that were accurately forecast but still led to a large loss of life.

  • In the case of Ian, some late shifts in the storm's path occurred but it remained within the so-called "cone of uncertainty." Yet many were caught off guard when storm surge roared across Sanibel Island and into Fort Myers Beach, killing dozens.
  • The fires began during a period when the National Weather Service was practically screaming about the fire threat from a rare high wind event in ALL CAPS text.

The consensus was that any fire start could grow "explosively" and be nearly impossible to contain even with the pre-staging of fire crews.

  • Sadly, four such fires occurred around the same time, overwhelming responders, many of whom had been prepositioned to act quickly.

Context: Red flag warnings were initially created for emergency managers and land management agencies in the 1990s, Bieda said.

  • Similarly, "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag warnings were implemented about five years ago โ€” again primarily for the emergency management community to increase readiness rather than the public.
  • But, given the accessibility of information, those warnings are widely consumed, Bieda said.
  • He said their basic message is that forecasters have the highest-possible confidence that a worst-case combination of dry vegetation, or fuels, and strong winds will occur to produce a potentially devastating event.

Friction point: According to Amanda Stasiewicz, a researcher at the University of Oregon, and Stephanie Hoekstra, a wildfire social scientist at CIRA and NOAA, it's one thing to tell people to be prepared for potentially dire fire weather conditions.

  • But pinpointing fire ignitions isn't currently possible โ€” and they said that may limit forecasts' utility.
  • "You never know where the next fire is going to break out," Hoekstra told Axios. "Something that makes fires unique is that anywhere can be ground zero."

Both Stasiewicz and Hoekstra told Axios that so-called PDS Red Flag warnings are currently only used by some NWS forecast offices, including the LA office.

  • They're geared mainly to partners of the NWS such as emergency management agencies and elected officials at the state, regional and local levels.
  • Little research has been done on how they affect public preparation and response.

Between the lines: Social scientists who study responses to extreme weather watches and warnings โ€” as well as evacuation orders โ€” are limited by a lack of studies on wildfires, said Julie Demuth, who studies weather risks and decisions at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

  • "A major challenge we have with answering these questions is that we often don't have the social science 'observations' we need to answer these event-specific questions," she told Axios via email.
  • Even evidence gleaned from other fire-prone areas is relatively sparse, Demuth and other experts told Axios.

The intrigue: The NWS proactively anticipated the fire weather threat on Jan. 7, as well as the ongoing threat Tuesday through Wednesday.

  • The first briefing for emergency managers on the Jan. 7 fire danger took place on New Year's Day, a Weather Service spokesperson said.
  • The service's LA office began briefings the next day, but had first mentioned the threat in its forecast products as early as Dec. 30.
  • Watches and warnings were hoisted beginning four days in advance of the event, NOAA's timeline states.

What's next: Its potential shortcomings aside, the Weather Service's most dire fire weather warning, the PDS Red Flag Warning, is in effect for parts of LA and Ventura Counties through Wednesday at noon.

Go deeper:

Climate change plays key contributing role in LA fires

New, rare fire warning issued in Southern California

The psychological toll of California's catastrophic fires

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