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The cracks in venture are beginning to show, just as Anthropic gets ready to IPO

“Cracks are beginning to show in venture, including large amounts of AI-related debt and a likely slowdown in data center expansion given the recent election.” The reality is this: Valuations are soaring higher and more readily, but exits are still tough.

✦ Extractive summary — built from the sources' own reporting•From 1 source•1 min read•Updated November 12, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC
Key points
  • Zheng is clear that the IPO window—unless a company is in a very select group like SpaceX or Anthropic—remains shut.
  • Nevertheless, what happens next with Anthropic will be the harbinger of where venture and startups go from here.
  • Historical data also suggests the current venture vintage could be in trouble, according to PitchBook’s recent U.S.

I’ve been thinking about this irony for days: Anthropic is set to go public as soon as next week (everything I’m hearing says “Jensen Huang’s affair be damned, all systems go”), and while this is primed to be a banner moment for VC, venture seems to be structurally over its skis.

Additional details
  • VC Fundraising and Returns data: Past funds haven’t necessarily performed well during periods characterized by high interest rates (new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh already hiked rates once in 2026, and another hike’s on the table for December).
  • “Strong performance would validate AI’s enormous private valuations, spurring dealmaking and exit activity as real distributions are injected back into LP portfolios,” said Zheng via email.
  • “Higher valuations raise the bar to achieve profitable exits, and AI is expensive to run,” said Emily Zheng, PitchBook senior research analyst, via email.
  • Consider recent data from PitchBook: Hitting a $5 billion valuation takes 80% less time, but 74% more capital, according to the company’s latest U.S.
  • “Weak performance would bring into question whether AI companies are wildly overvalued.” That is, of course, the multi-trillion-dollar question.

How this summary was made: extractive summary — built from the sources' own reporting. It is drawn only from the reporting of the sources listed below — read the originals for full detail. How we summarize →

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Every article behind this summary — 1 article from 1 outlet

FortuneNovember 12, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC →

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