The 2028 presidential race is already full of surprises, prediction markets say
Outside the Super Bowl, few things are as popular on prediction markets as a presidential race.
Key points
- While prediction markets have an excellent long-term record of accuracy, this far from an election, you can't expect surgical precision.
- The midterm ballots are barely counted, and a long list of would-be candidates is already elbowing for a lane in a campaign that, by Election Day, will feel like it started during the Truman administration.
- He leaves office in January, which frees him up for a full-time campaign and gives even more airtime to a man who has never been accused of camera shyness.
Two years before anyone casts a ballot, Kalshi's 2028 markets have already drawn nearly half a billion dollars in trading.
STU BURGUIERE: PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS: PREDICTION MARKETS WON THE MIDTERMS What the markets can show us is who's trading like a blue chip, who's stuck in the middle, and whose campaign feels like a penny stock that needs a miracle rally to be competitive.
Additional details
- The 2028 presidential election seems far away.
- NEW POLL COMPLICATES VANCE’S STATUS AS TRUMP’S LIKELY 2028 HEIR APPARENT On the Republican side, Vice President J.D.
- What if I told you the Democratic front-runner for 2028 is a man a third of Democrats have never heard of?
- AOC TAPS POWER PLAYER WHO HELPED BERNIE SANDERS DEFY THE ODDS AS MAJOR 2028 DECISION LOOMS Rep.
- So let's look ahead with a way-too-early presidential market report, starting at the top.
How this summary was made: extractive summary — built from the sources' own reporting. It is drawn only from the reporting of the sources listed below — read the originals for full detail. How we summarize →
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