High oil prices have led to a dip in global carbon emissions
This probably isn’t a peak that symbolizes heartening progress on climate change, though; the researchers think it’s a short-term dip driven by the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices.
Key points
- Famously, global warming did not end in 1998, as some claimed a couple of decades ago—we just had a run of La-Niña-dominated years after a very strong El Niño.
- Instead, it's high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that's driving the trend.
- Annual greenhouse gas emissions are much less variable, having increased fairly steadily, but many complicating factors can still muddy the picture.
Global carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action.
A new analysis led by Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia estimates that fossil fuel emissions have fallen about 0.4 percent from last year.
Additional details
- Evaluating the annual global temperatures each year requires context.
- There is a fair amount of natural variability from one year to the next, so it’s important to focus on the trend over time.
- Sometimes those factors conspire to throw a year off the trend.
- It looks like 2026 will be one of those years.
How this summary was made: extractive summary — built from the sources' own reporting. It is drawn only from the reporting of the sources listed below — read the originals for full detail. How we summarize →
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