• Waymo One's robotaxis could threaten Uber and Lyft drivers' earnings if they get access to airports.
• Airport rides are among the most profitable trips for human drivers.
• Waymo One is offering airport trips in Phoenix and is awaiting approval in other markets.

If Waymo One's robotaxis continue expanding to airports, human ride-hailing drivers could see their incomes take a big hit.

Airport trips are "incredibly important" for ride-hailing drivers, particularly those who work near cities with major airports, said Lindsey Cameron, an assistant professor of management — whose research focuses on AI and gig work — at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She added that airport pickups can be especially profitable because those rides often have higher fares, which are driven by strong customer demand.

"Those are the most lucrative rides," she said. "You've got a captive audience who wants to go home, and so they're willing to pay."

Many Uber and Lyft drivers have told BI their gigs are already less profitable than they were a few years ago — due, in part, to an increase in competition from both human and robot drivers. The threat of robotaxis further chipping away at their business has put some of them on edge.

Nicole Moore, a part-time Lyft driver and the president of the driver advocacy group Rideshare Drivers United, said that in the last couple of weeks, she's seen a significant uptick in concern from LA-based drivers about the impacts of robotaxis on their earnings. In November, Waymo One began offering rides to anyone in Los Angeles after previously operating a limited service with a waitlist.

"You put more drivers on the street — whether they're robot drivers or people — everybody makes less money," she said, adding, "We're thankful they're not in the airport yet."

Waymo One, which is owned by Alphabet, is the only company operating autonomous vehicles at US airports, Waymo told BI. It's also the biggest autonomous taxi service in the US: In October, the company said it was providing more than 150,000 weekly paid rides in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix. Additionally, the company announced this fall it will offer rides to the public in the Atlanta and Austin markets early next year and in Miami in 2026.

While Waymo One airport trips are available in Phoenix —and the company has approval to begin pilot testing at the Austin airport — robotaxis are still restricted from airports in Los Angeles and San Francisco. In these cities, approval for airport rides would come from groups that oversee the airports' operations.

The experts BI spoke to said it's unclear if and when robotaxis will receive widespread approval for airport trips in the markets they're operating.

Spokespeople for Los Angeles World Airports and the Airport Commission for San Francisco International Airport told BI there is no estimated timeline for when Waymo One will receive approval, but the groups are monitoring the robotaxi's progress.

The LAWA spokesperson said the airport can experience significant curbside congestion and that for driverless taxis to gain airport approval, they would need to operate safely and efficiently and not impact the airport's current commercial and private vehicle operations. The Airport Commission spokesperson said driverless taxis would need to demonstrate the ability to operate on freeways and in communities near the airport and ensure they could safely meet the needs of customers.

Waymo is pushing for airport expansion in the US

Waymo told BI that it's providing thousands of trips each week to and from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, the most popular destination for its riders in the city. The company also said it's in active discussions with San Francisco International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport about expanding its fleet to these airports, but didn't give BI a timeline for when it expects to receive approvals.

The company added that it was granted approval to provide robotaxi trips on freeways in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, but that it hasn't begun offering those rides to the public yet: Access to these trips is currently limited to Waymo's employees in San Francisco and Phoenix.

A spokesperson for Austin-Bergstrom International Airport told BI that the airport would monitor Waymo One's pilot testing before deciding whether to approve airport pickups.

Uber did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment, and Lyft said that its drivers have generally earned more on airport trips than on non-airport trips.

It's not just drivers who are feeling the pinch from Waymo One's expansions. GM announced on December 11 that it was retreating from the robotaxi business "given the considerable time and resources that would be needed to scale the business, along with an increasingly competitive robotaxi market."

Meanwhile, on December 5, shares of Uber and Lyft traded lower after Waymo announced it was expanding to Miami.

To be sure, Waymo isn't the only company rolling out robotaxis: Tesla and the Amazon-owned Zoox are also developing their own versions of a robotaxi.

Airport trips are some drivers' 'bread and butter'

Moore said that airport trips aren't as profitable for drivers as they used to be, but that they remain important.

"They have been our bread and butter for many, many years," she said.

Jason D., a 50-year-old driver in Phoenix, told BI he does more airport trips than any other type of ride — in part because he drives an Uber XL vehicle that has the space for luggage and multiple passengers. He said competing with Waymo One at airports and elsewhere has hurt his earnings.

"Driverless taxis are flooding an already competitive Phoenix market and taking money from human drivers," Jason D, who drives full-time for Uber and asked that his last name not be included for fear of professional repercussions, previously told BI. He added that Waymo One's cars also contribute to significant congestion at the airport because they don't know how to follow traffic officers' hand and voice commands.

Sergio Avedian, a part-time Uber and Lyft driver based in the Los Angeles area and senior contributor to the gig-driver-advocacy blog and YouTube channel The Rideshare Guy, told BI that airport drop-offs tend to be quick, pay relatively well, and often come with a tip.

In comparison, doing airport pickups can require drivers at major airports to wait in designated lots until a passenger books a ride. Avedian said this process can be frustrating, but that airport pickups often pay better than drop-offs because the fares are higher — which is why some drivers think they're worth the wait.

"You have a chance of maybe catching a 'unicorn,'" he said, referring to the highest-paying trips. He added that many airport riders are business travelers who can expense their trips and are therefore less likely to balk at a high fare or not tip.

While robotaxis are already operating in the LA market, Avedian isn't overly concerned about robotaxis impact on drivers' earnings in the short term. But he knows the clock is ticking.

"Long-term, definitely it's going to be a threat, and that's why we suggest everybody not treat Uber and Lyft driving as a career," he previously told BI.

If more airports approve robotaxis, Moore said she hopes riders will value the customer service humans provide.

"Customers often expect you to put their luggage in the trunk — is the robotaxi going to do that?"

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Correction: December 13, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the number of weekly paid rides Waymo provided. It was more than 150,000, not 100,000.

• Uber and Lyft drivers in Phoenix and LA said that driverless taxis are hurting their earnings.
• They said Waymo One robotaxis are making their gigs even more competitive.
• Regulatory hurdles and safety concerns could slow the growth of the robotaxi industry.

Some Uber and Lyft drivers said the driverless taxis operating in their markets are driving down their earnings.

Jason D, a 50-year-old Uber driver based in Phoenix, told Business Insider it's become harder to make money in recent years due to increased competition with human drivers, lower fares, fewer tips from riders, and higher operating costs. Now, he said the rollout of Waymo One robotaxis has made this problem even worse.

"Driverless taxis are flooding an already competitive Phoenix market and taking money from human drivers," said Jason, who drives full-time and asked that his last name not be included for fear of professional repercussions.

Several companies are competing for a share of the US robotaxi market. However, Waymo One, Alphabet's autonomous taxi service, announced in August that it was providing more than 100,000 paid rides weekly in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix. Waymo One also plans to expand to Atlanta and Austin early next year and will be facilitated through the Uber app. While the robotaxi industry could be slowed by regulatory hurdles and safety concerns, ride-hailing experts previously told BI that growing adoption would likely hurt Uber and Lyft drivers' earnings in the years to come. Some drivers told BI this is already happening.

To be sure, it's unclear how much robotaxis like Waymo One's are currently impacting drivers' earnings. Carl Benedikt Frey, a professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute, previously told BI there's little evidence that robotaxis like Waymo One have had a significant impact on Uber and Lyft drivers' earnings so far. But as more robotaxis hit the road, and fare prices come down, he said he would expect drivers' income to take a hit.

"As the technology gets better and cheaper, drivers will feel it in their wallets," Frey said. "We've seen this movie before: When Uber first showed up, it reduced traditional taxi drivers' earnings by about 10%."

Waymo and Uber did not respond to BI's request for comment. In February, an Uber spokesperson told BI that the company hadn't seen any significant impacts on drivers' earnings in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the two cities where Uber had autonomous vehicle partnerships at the time.

A Lyft spokesperson did not respond to BI's question about the impacts driverless taxis could have on ride-hailing drivers but said the company's goal is to build a hybrid network of human drivers and autonomous vehicles. Additionally, Lyft partnered with Mobileye to roll out autonomous vehicles on the Lyft network.

Restrictions on robotaxis could help reduce competition

John, a 43-year-old Uber and Lyft driver based in Phoenix, said he said he thinks Waymo One's robotaxis have hurt his earnings. He sometimes asks his passengers about their experiences using driverless taxis to get a better understanding of his competition.

He said Waymo One autonomous vehicles compete with him for rides and are sometimes cheaper than Uber and Lyft trips, which he thinks could deter passengers from using traditional ride-hailing services. John's identity is known to BI but has been withheld for his fear of professional repercussions.

Comparing the costs of Waymo One against Uber or Lyft is difficult because prices vary by market, length of trip, promotional offers the passenger may have, and whether the client tips a human driver.

There is some relief for human drivers: Restrictions on where robotaxis can drive could help limit the impact on ride-hailing drivers.

Brad, a full-time Uber driver based in Los Angeles, said he doesn't feel too threatened by Waymo One robotaxis in the city because they primarily offer shorter rides that he doesn't consider to be very profitable.

"I stopped picking up local rides a long time ago," said Brad, whose identity is known to BI but has been withheld for his fear of professional repercussions.

He added the most profitable rides tend to be airport trips — specifically when he picks up passengers from their terminals — and robotaxis aren't allowed at the airport. Waymo One airport trips are still restricted in Los Angeles and San Francisco but are available in Phoenix.

Nicole Moore, a part-time Lyft driver and the president of the driver advocacy group Rideshare Drivers United, previously told BI that trips to and from airports are many drivers' "bread and butter." She said that competition from robotaxis for these rides would be a concerning development for drivers.

A key factor in the success of robotaxis could be whether riders feel comfortable without a human driver. In Phoenix, Jason said that robotaxis are sometimes a "hazard on the road."

"They often cut me off," he said. "I have seen them signal left and right before making a sudden turn across multiple lanes of traffic."

In June, Waymo One recalled 672 of its driverless taxis after one hit a utility pole in Phoenix — the company said there were no passengers in the vehicle.

Jason said some riders he speaks with are comfortable with driverless cars or even think they could be safer than those driven by humans. But he's firm in his stance.

"I am fundamentally opposed to driverless rideshare because I do believe my income is being impacted," he said.

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