• Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman predicts AGI is more than two years away.
• His timeline contrasts with Sam Altman, who suggests AGI is achievable "with current hardware."
• Definitions of AGI vary, with Suleyman emphasizing a broad human-level learning system.

Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft's AI CEO, indicated that the timeline of AI advancement will be much longer than Sam Altman has predicted.

During an interview on The Verge's Decoder, Suleyman gave his take on when artificial general intelligence — AI with human-level proficiency at tasks — will become achievable. In October, Altman, cofounder and CEO of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, said that AGI is "achievable with current hardware." He spoke during an ask-me-anything session on Reddit.

Altman didn't clarify exactly what he meant by "current hardware," though Decoder host Nilay Patel defined it as within one to two generations of tech.

Suleyman agreed with that timeline but with some hefty caveats. He told Patel that AGI would be more plausible in the next two to five generations.

"I don't want to say I think it's a high probability that it's two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years, since each generation takes 18 to 24 months now," Suleyman said.

He added that five generations of tech, like new versions of Nvidia's GB200 chips, could be up to a decade away.

"The uncertainty around this is so high that any categorical declarations just feel sort of ungrounded to me and over the top," Suley said.

Weeks after his declaration on Reddit, Altman spoke at The New York Times DealBook Summit in early December. He said AGI will come sooner than expected but "will matter much less."

Suleyman says people have different definitions of AGI. He defines it as "a general-purpose learning system that can perform well across all human-level training environments" — including physical labor.

Meantime, OpenAI's website defines AGI as "a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work."

"The challenge with AGI is that it's become so dramatized that we sort of end up not focusing on the specific capabilities of what the system can do," Suleyman said.

No matter how Altman defines AGI, OpenAI is reportedly working to remove a clause from its contract with Microsoft that's meant to prevent the misuse of AGI. Still, Suleyman says he's confident in Microsoft's multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI.

"Naturally, in any partnership, there are little tensions here and there, but fundamentally, we will win together," he told Patel.

• On Tuesday, Bill Gates published his annual list of his favorite books of the year.
• His top reads of 2024 include an autobiography and a book by the head of Microsoft AI.
• Here are his top books of the year — and his bonus recommendation for tennis fans.

Bill Gates has released his yearly roster of book recommendations as 2024 comes to a close.

The Microsoft cofounder published a list Tuesday of his favorite books of the year.

"All four are, in one way or another, about making sense of the world around you," he wrote in his blog post. "This wasn't an intentional theme, but I wasn't surprised to see it emerge: It's natural to try and wrap your head around things during times of rapid change, like we're living through now."

Here are his top book picks of the year:

"An Unfinished Love Story" by Doris Kearns Goodwin

This autobiography from historian Doris Kearns Goodwin centers on her life with her late husband, Richard N. Goodwin, who was an advisor and speechwriter to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson.

"Doris is such a talented writer that the chapters about her love story are just as engaging and enlightening as the chapters about the Kennedy assassination and the Vietnam War," Gates said of the book.

"The Anxious Generation" by Jonathan Haidt

Social psychologist Jonathan Haidt argues in his book that smartphones and social media are changing how children grow up and contributing to mental health issues in adolescents.

"It made me reflect on how much of my younger years—which were often spent running around outside without parental supervision, sometimes getting into trouble—helped shape who I am today," Gates said of the book. "Haidt explains how the shift from play-based childhoods to phone-based childhoods is transforming how kids develop and process emotions."

"Engineering in Plain Sight" by Grady Hillhouse

This book from civil engineer Grady Hillhouse offers an illustrated field guide to the modern constructed world.

"Hillhouse takes all of the mysterious structures we see every day, from cable boxes to transformers to cell phone towers, and explains what they are and how they work," Gates wrote in his blog post. "It's the kind of read that will reward your curiosity and answer questions you didn't even know you had."

"The Coming Wave" by Mustafa Suleyman

Suleyman cofounded AI firms Inflection AI and DeepMind, which was acquired by Google. He now heads Microsoft's AI division. His book focuses on future opportunities and risks posed by artificial intelligence as well as other scientific breakthroughs, including gene editing.

Gates said of the book: "If you want to understand the rise of AI, this is the best book to read."

"Federer" by Doris Henkel

Gates' bonus book pick is a visual biography of tennis player Roger Federer by sports writer Doris Henkel. It features never-before-published photos of the sports icon.

"I thought I knew pretty much everything about Roger's history with tennis, but I learned a ton, especially about his early years," Gates said.