• Big Tech companies have been waiting for consumers to embrace face computers for years.
• It probably won't happen this year, analysts at IDC predict: They think the shipments for those devices will fall this year.
• But IDC, and Meta, are bullish about the near-term prospects for the company's Ray-Ban glasses.

You know how Big Tech companies keep coming out with new versions of face computers, even though consumers don't seem that interested in them?

So here's an interesting data point: An analyst report that predicts the market for goggles like Apple Vision Pro and Meta's Quest line will actually shrink this year.

International Data Corp. projects that shipments for augmented reality and virtual reality headsets will decline by 12% in 2025 — from 7.5 million units in 2024 to 6.6 million this year.

That's a striking decrease given that IDC and other prognosticators have been overly optimistic about the market for those goggles for years. But IDC says it's still optimistic about the market, and projects that it will roar back in 2026, with 87% growth and more than 11.2 million units shipped.

And if you really have a lot invested in the idea that wearing electronics on your face is something lots of people will do, consider this: IDC's forecast does not include Meta's line of computerized Ray-Ban glasses, which have become a surprising hit — or at minimum, they have sold more units than Meta expected. That's because IDC is only counting devices that have a display in them, IDC researcher Jitesh Ubrani tells me. A Meta rep declined to comment.

That also means a new line of Ray-Bans — ones that reportedly do have a display built into them, like this model Bloomberg thinks could be on sale by the end of the year, and cost between $1,000 and $1,400 — are counted in IDC's projections.

Ubrani isn't sold on the market for the more sophisticated Ray-Bans yet, in part because of the price. Meanwhile, he's pretty bullish about "regular" internet glasses like the Meta Ray-Bans, which can connect to the internet but don't have any display screen. He thinks the market for those devices will grow, from 2.7 million in 2024 to 5.5 million in 2025.

Mark Zuckerberg thinks this is a big year for Ray-Bans, too. The company has been talking them up more on earnings calls, and in January, the Meta CEO said 2025 could be a "defining year" for the tech — while acknowledging that the breakthrough may not happen this year, after all.

What does any of that mean? I'm going to take the easy way out and give you a shrug emoji here.

I've tried a bunch of the devices that are on the market now — like Apple's Vision Pro — and a demo of one that might come to market one day — Meta's Orion — and I've generally come away impressed with the tech. But I'm still waiting for someone to figure out how to make these things small enough and cheap enough that I'd be able to justify the purchase and feel OK wearing them for extended use. And then I'd have to figure out how I would use these in daily life, once the novelty wears off. My hunch is that I'm not the only one.

• Have you bought a virtual reality or augmented reality headset?
• If so, you're part of a small group of consumers — despite repeated predictions that the market will boom.
• Meta alone has lost $60 billion on this tech over five years. It's going to keep spending, says Mark Zuckerberg.

Mark Zuckerberg has spent tens of billions of dollars chasing it. Some of the biggest names in tech, including Apple, Microsoft, Google and Sony, have poured in billions more. For years.

But so far, no one has nailed it.

Maybe one day wearing computers on our heads will be something many of us do all the time, instead of a novelty we try a few times and then forget. We're not there yet.

It doesn't matter whether you're talking about super high-end devices like the Apple Vision Pro or low-priced novelties, like early editions of Snap's Spectacles. Or whether you're discussing virtual reality devices that create an entirely new world around the user or augmented reality headsets that let you see the outside world as well as digital images. All of these devices have yet to take off. Consumer demand isn't budging.

That hasn't stopped the tech industry from trying. Or deterred people around the tech world from predicting that one day, this will be a huge market.

You can see this spelled out in a new chart from analyst and investor Matthew Ball, as part of a new report he's released on the problems in the video gaming business. This one tracks the gap between projected headset sales, as estimated by International Data Corp., and actual sales.

As you can see, while IDC has been continually bullish about VR and AR headsets, consumer interest has lagged far behind. No matter what's on offer, at whatever price, these devices seem mired in the 10 million units a year or less range.

That's not to suggest that Zuckerberg — who has racked up more than $60 billion in losses on this tech over the past five years, filings show — is chasing after the market because of an IDC estimate. It just shows you that for close to a decade, the industry has been excited about this stuff, while many consumers remain unimpressed.

I talked to Jitesh Ubrani, the IDC researcher who works on this stuff, about the gap between his company's projections — which, to be fair, are projections — and reality.

He said his shop has become less optimistic over time about the market, which you can see reflected on the right side of the chart.

"Everyone is a bit more realistic about these expectations," he said, noting that the market for the tech has been "notably volatile" over the past few years, as big players like Microsoft and Google temper their interest in headsets. Meta PR declined to comment.

In his public comments, Zuckerberg has been telling investors that he'll continue chasing virtual and augmented reality tech, and that they should expect to see more losses in the future.

For him, the stakes seem quite clear: He wants people to use a new computing platform instead of, or in addition to, phones. And he wants to be able to interact with them on that platform without Google or Apple getting involved, as they do with their mobile platforms. And if all of that happens — meaning that Zuckerberg essentially creates the next iPhone — then burning tens of billions on R&D will seem like a good bet.

Meanwhile, Meta does seem to be making progress. The Orion glasses Zuckerberg showed off last fall — but isn't selling yet — are super-impressive. I've tried them, and I could definitely imagine using some version of them if they were way cheaper, and worked as advertised.

But those are big ifs, and it's possible Meta never figures out how to make these things at scale, and in a way that will sell hundreds of millions of units per year — like Apple does with its phones. But someone, somewhere, will keep insisting that the headset of the future is just around the corner.