The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begins at noon et on Friday. 

And the first order of business in the House is to elect the Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government: Speaker of the House.

Only the House votes for Speaker. And the House can’t do anything – I’ll repeat that, anything – until it chooses a Speaker. 

It can’t swear-in Members until the House taps a Speaker and he or she is sworn-in. The Speaker then swears-in the rest of the body, en masse. Then the House must adopt a rules package to govern daily operations. Only then can the House go about debating bills, voting and constructing committees for hearings. 

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If the House fails to elect a Speaker on the first ballot, it must proceed to a second ballot. 

And on and on.  

Consider for a moment that the House had never even taken a second vote for Speaker in a century before the donnybrook two years ago. It took four ballots to re-elect late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923. 

What is past is prologue for the House. Consider how the House consumed 15 rounds spread out over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January, 2023. The Speakership remained vacant – and thus, the House frozen – for 22 days after Republicans dumped McCarthy nine months later. House Republicans then tapped House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., for Speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before there was even a floor vote. House GOPers then tapped Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to become Speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes for Speaker on the House floor, bleeding support on each ballot. House Republicans then anointed House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker. Emmer withdrew hours later. 

House Republicans finally nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the job. The Louisiana Republican won on the floor. But some conservatives have been disappointed in Johnson ever since. They’ve flagged how he handled multiple, interim spending bills from last November on. They didn’t like that he allowed a bill on the floor to aid Ukraine. They opposed him doing yet another interim spending bill in September. They really didn’t like how he worked with Democrats on major, must-do pieces of legislation. And then there was the misstep of the staggering, 1,500-page interim spending package which Mr. Trump and Elon Musk pulverized from afar in December. Johnson then did President-elect Trump’s bidding with another spending package – which included a debt ceiling increase. But 38 House Republicans bolted on that bill. 

So Johnson’s tenure has been bumpy. And that’s why he’s on the hook come Friday afternoon during the vote for Speaker. Everyone on Capitol Hill is on tenterhooks when it comes to wrapping this up expeditiously. 

Here’s what will happen Friday at noon: 

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Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a Speaker. The first order of business is a "call of the House." That’s where the House establishes how many of its Members-elect are there, simply voting "present." The House should clock in at 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall – and said he did not "intend" to serve in the new Congress, despite having won reelection. 

Watch to see if there are absences in that call of the House. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health issues of late – including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will likely be there. But the Speaker’s election is about the math. How many lawmakers report to the House chamber will dictate margins in the Speaker’s vote.

Then it’s on to nominating speeches. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson for Speaker. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can then place someone’s name in nomination.

Then, the House calls the roll of Members-elect alphabetically. Each Member rises and verbally responds, calling out their choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, D-N.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names out of the block.

But lawmakers can vote for anyone they want. That includes persons who aren’t House Members. That’s why there have been votes cast over the years for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. 

This is what Johnson – or anyone else must do – to win the Speakership:

The winning candidate must secure an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name. 

So let’s say there are 434 members and all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets the votes of all 219 Republicans, he wins. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? No dice. Under those circumstances Johnson would have prospectively outpolled Jeffries, 217-215 – with two votes going to other candidates. But the "most votes" doesn’t win. 217 is not an outright majority of House Members voting for someone by name. The House must take ANOTHER ballot to elect a Speaker. 

Fox is told there are anywhere from 12 to 17 Republicans who could vote for someone besides Johnson. And some Republicans are being cagey about their votes. 

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Here’s something to watch: Members who vote "present."

Rather than voting for someone besides Johnson, some Republicans may protest by simply voting "present." A "present" vote does not count against Johnson. 

So let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Let’s say 434 Members cast ballots. Jeffries secures support from all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote "present." In other words, not voting for any candidate by name. Johnson scores 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 Members voted for someone by name. 216 is an outright majority of 431. 434 doesn’t matter under these circumstances. So Johnson becomes Speaker. 

But there is serious danger in too many Republicans voting "present." 

Consider this scenario: 

All 215 Democrats vote for Jeffries. But five Republicans vote "present." Johnson records 214 votes. 429 Members cast ballots for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who’s Speaker? Jeffries. He marshalled an outright majority of all Members voting for a candidate by name.

As they say in the movies, "You play a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond."

With such a thin margin in the House, Republicans are absolutely tinkering with fire if they get too cute by half. Yes. Some conservatives might not want to re-elect Johnson as Speaker. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries. 

So it’s hard to say what happens on Friday afternoon. If the House dithers too long, this could delay the certification of the Electoral College vote on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in a Joint Session of Congress on January 6 to certify the election results. No House Speaker? No Joint Session. 

But something else will likely unfold if this drags on. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans have had it with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other freelancers. Expect a full-on brawl between those two factions if Republicans struggle to elect a Speaker.

And as we wrote earlier, what is past is prologue. 

A protracted battle over the Speakership serves as prologue to the looming, internecine fights among Republicans when it comes to governing. That’s to say nothing of implementing a solitary plank of President-elect Trump’s agenda.

President-elect Donald Trump took aim at former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, describing the debt ceiling suspension approved in 2023 as "one of the dumbest political decisions made in years."

But while targeting the former top House GOP lawmaker, Trump tempered the criticism by describing McCarthy as a friend and a good person.

"The extension of the Debt Ceiling by a previous Speaker of the House, a good man and a friend of mine, from this past September of the Biden Administration, to June of the Trump Administration, will go down as one of the dumbest political decisions made in years. There was no reason to do it - NOTHING WAS GAINED, and we got nothing for it - A major reason why that Speakership was lost. It was Biden’s problem, not ours. Now it becomes ours," Trump declared in the post. 

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"I call it '1929' because the Democrats don’t care what our Country may be forced into. In fact, they would prefer ‘Depression’ as long as it hurt the Republican Party. The Democrats must be forced to take a vote on this treacherous issue NOW, during the Biden Administration, and not in June. They should be blamed for this potential disaster, not the Republicans!" he added.

A deal passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden last year suspended the debt limit through Jan. 1, 2025, but Trump has been calling for the ceiling to be increased before he takes office. 

"In June 2023, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 was enacted, suspending the debt limit through January 1, 2025.  On January 2, 2025, the new debt limit will be established at the amount of outstanding debt subject to the statutory limit at the end of the previous day," Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen wrote in a recent letter to congressional leaders. "Treasury currently expects to reach the new limit between January 14 and January 23, at which time it will be necessary for Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures. I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States."

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Earlier this month, Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance pressed for the limit to be raised as part of a stopgap government spending proposal.

"The most foolish and inept thing ever done by Congressional Republicans was allowing our country to hit the debt ceiling in 2025. It was a mistake and is now something that must be addressed," the two men said in a statement. "Increasing the debt ceiling is not great but we’d rather do it on Biden’s watch. If Democrats won’t cooperate on the debt ceiling now, what makes anyone think they would do it in June during our administration?"

But the measure that eventually passed did not raise the ceiling.

Responding to Trump's post about McCarthy, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, wrote in a post on X, "Sadly, this bad debt ceiling extension was opposed by only 71 House Republicans 18 months ago (notably opposed by virtually the entire @freedomcaucus)."

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"Democrats did vote on the recent debt ceiling increase proposal on 12/19: 197-2 against it (their price to support is very high - more spending/taxes)," Roy added. "Yes, we can & should address the debt ceiling - thru reconciliation in January with mostly GOP votes - but with real, meaningful spending cuts."