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Trump is making some US allies question the F-35, creating a golden opportunity for European defense companies

Two F-35 Lightning II's of the Vermont Air National Guard fly over the Midwest Sept. 19, 2019.
Two F-35 Lightning II's of the Vermont Air National Guard fly over the Midwest.

U.S. Air Force photo/Master Sgt. Ben Mota

  • Trump's actions have caused some US allies to reconsider their commitment to buying F-35s.
  • It's a big opportunity for Europe, and one jet maker is already trying to seize the opportunity.
  • Trump's attitude to Europe, a rapidly growing defense market, has caused some to emphasize buying local.

President Donald Trump's treatment of US allies is causing some to question their commitment to the US-made F-35, presenting a golden opportunity for European defense companies.

One European jet maker is already trying to capitalize, publicly trying to get wavering countries to buy its jets instead.

Eric Trappier, CEO of France's Dassault Aviation, said on Sunday that his company was ready for US allies unsure about buying the American jet to adopt its Rafale fighter.

He told French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche that, as long as France's government approved the move, Dassault would be ready to provide its services.

If relationships between the US and its allies deteriorate further, European defense companies could be in a strong position to seize the opportunity.

Richard Aboulafia, an aviation expert and the managing director of US consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, told Business Insider that, amid this tension, "Obviously, the one player that wins big are the European firms that can make an argument to purchase on the basis of national sovereignty."

When it comes to European-made jets, "none of these planes are as good as the F-35," he said, but added that: "If you're Denmark and you're looking at a confrontation in Greenland and you say, 'Wow, the F-35 really does give us elaborate capabilities β€” unless we can't use it.'"

A Europe boost and US blow

Trump has thrown a wrench in long-standing relationships with European powers, by criticizing defense spending and the NATO alliance in general, while also threatening to annex a European territory and excluding European allies from peace talks over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Some nations are now questioning their commitment to the F-35 β€” a leading product for the US defense industry that, as a program, is expected to cost more than $2 trillion.

An F-35 during take-off.
A UK F-35B jet.

UK Ministry of Defense photo

Part of this is down to worries about the future of US weaponry, as countries that buy American weapons must rely on the US manufacturer for parts and services.

Allies turning away from the F-35 would be a big blow to the US defense industry: The F-35 is the West's most advanced jet and is a symbol of US defense strength.

But it's also run years late and billions over budget.

Losing international sales would exacerbate the program's difficulties. Around 35% of Lockheed Martin's F-35 deliveries last year were to the international market, and the company says the program contributes around $72 billion annually to the US economy, and supports 275,000 US jobs.

The US' loss is Europe's gain

This loss could give a major boost to European manufacturers.

European defense spending is growing at a faster rate than the US, with many countries needing to replace their arsenals as they give weaponry to Ukraine.

European defense stocks are also soaring, as countries increase their military spending.

French Dassault Rafale fighter jet
A French Dassault Rafale flying near Salon-de-Provence.

Toni Anne Barson/Getty Images

Even so, many have struggled with a shortage of manufacturing capability which has left them unable to produce enough weaponry and ammunition, even if they're willing to spend more.

Trump's approach could push Europe faster toward what many warfare experts and European leaders identify as a tipping point: countries placing large enough orders for the defense industry to feel confident enough to massively boost production.

For items as large and complex as fighter jets, this scaling up would still take years.

European leaders are urging the purchasing of European weapons. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said this month that "we must buy more European" weapons, and "that means creating an EU-wide market for defense equipment."

Seizing the opportunity

Trappier's comments about countries adopting the Rafale fighter jet came as many nations have publicly voiced their uncertainty over plans to move forward with the F-35.

Canada's defense minister said his country was reviewing its contract with Lockheed Martin for F-35s and looking at "other alternatives," while Rasmus Jarlov, chairman of Denmark's parliamentary defense committee, said he regrets choosing the F-35 for his country.

Among other things, Jarlov said he did not believe the Pentagon's denial of rumors the jets could have a "kill switch" allowing the US to remotely disable them.

Portugal's defense minister this month said his country was unsure about its plans to transition to the F-35s β€” a deal anticipated to be worth $6 billion β€” citing the US's posture toward NATO and its allies.

Trappier said he wanted to offer Portugal the jet, adding that the country hadn't contacted France yet but that a request could come in the next few weeks or months.

He also said that Dassault's Rafale production had increased from one jet a month in 2020 to more than two a month this year. Trappier said that would grow to three a month in 2026, and four from 2028-2029.

The company was looking at how to bring that up to five a month, he added, but he didn't give a timeline.

A US Air Force F-35 flies over Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania in March 2022.
A US Air Force F-35 flies over Siauliai Air Base in Lithuania.

US Air Force photo by Senior Airman John R. Wright

A major shortfall

Despite its growth, it's unclear how much the Rafale could make up for any shortfall left by countries canceling or deciding against F-35 orders.

Lockheed Martin produces more than 150 F-35s a year. Even if Dassault makes three a month that would still only be 36 jets.

Mark Cancian, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that the "production rate will be an issue" if allies want to heavily turn to Rafales.

There are similar issues with other European aircraft, like the Swedish-made Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon, manufactured by a consortium of Airbus Defense and Space, BAE Systems, and Leonardo.

Many countries still seem committed to their F-35s: A spokesperson for The Netherlands' defense ministry told BI that "there is no reason to assume that the good cooperation with the US in the F-35 program will change or stop" and described the F-35 as a joint effort, a jet "developed, deployed and maintained as a common platform based on a strong partnership with the US and other countries around the world."

Germany and the UK have also said they remain committed.

F-35s are considered among the world's most advanced jets, and changing jet type would create additional work that could delay readiness at a time when Europe is increasingly worried about threats from Russia.

Even so, there are signs that many countries are questioning their long-term dependency on US tech and weaponry.

The prime minister of Sweden, which doesn't operate F-35s, said this month that he doesn't view US weaponry as a security threat, but said Sweden and Europe "would do well from being a little less dependent on the US defense industry."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Canada joins Portugal in weighing alternatives to the US-made F-35 fighter jet

15 March 2025 at 05:51
A US F-35 in flight.
A US F-35 in flight.

US Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jack Rodgers

  • Canada is reviewing its contract with Lockheed Martin for F-35 fighter jets, the country's Defense Minister said.
  • The review comes amid rising tensions between Ottawa and Washington.
  • It comes after Portugal said it was also reconsidering purchasing the jet.

Canada is reviewing its contract with US defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin to purchase F-35 fighter jets, its defense minister said on Friday.

Speaking to CBC, Bill Blair said he had spoken with newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney and that they were now looking at "other alternatives" to the F-35.

"It was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives," Blair said.

"Whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35s or if there might be alternatives, the prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada," he added.

Canada finalized a contract in 2023 to purchase 88 F-35 jets for C$19 billion (around $13.2 billion), with the first aircraft expected to be delivered to the F-35 training center at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona in 2026. The jet is set to arrive in Canada in 2028.

Lockheed Martin beat out Sweden's Saab β€” maker of the Gripen E jet β€” and Boeing β€” which produces the F/A-18 Super Hornet β€” to secure the contract.

Blair's comments came just a day after Portugal announced that it was also reconsidering purchasing the F-35.

Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo told local outlet PΓΊblico on Thursday that he was wary of replacing older US-made F-16 fighter jets with F-35s in the wake of President Donald Trump's recent policy shifts.

Melo said Trump's unpredictability with regard to his stance on NATO meant Portugal had to weigh up other options, adding: "We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices."

Business Insider has contacted the Canadian Defense Ministry and Lockheed Martin for comment.

Blair's announcement comes amid heightened tensions between Ottawa and Washington over Trump's repeated tariff threats and comments about adopting Canada as the 51st US state.

Trump's moves have led to an outpouring of patriotism in Canada and seen some locals push back by abandoning US consumer brands in favor of Canadian alternatives.

Read the original article on Business Insider

See the US Air Force's 'Franken-bird' F-35 made from wrecked stealth fighters take its first flight

13 February 2025 at 01:05
A restored F-35A Lightning II takes flight from the runway.
An F-35A Lightning II painstakingly salvaged from two wrecked aircraft took flight in January.

US Air Force photo by Todd Cromar

  • A salvaged F-35 fighter made from two wrecked aircraft is set to return to the US Air Force's fleet.
  • The restoration began in 2023. The jet took its maiden flight in January less than two years later.
  • The "Franken-bird" cost about $6 million to repair, whereas a new F-35 costs over $80 million.

A one-of-a-kind F-35 stealth fighter built from two wrecked aircraft is set to make an unprecedented return to the US Air Force's operational fleet.

The so-called "Franken-bird" was restored through a collaboration between airmen from the 388th Fighter Wing at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, the F-35A Lightning II Joint Program Office, and Lockheed Martin.

The F-35 JPO first assessed the feasibility of the restoration project in January 2020, and work on a pieced-together stealth fighter began in late 2023 at the Ogden Air Logistics Complex.

"All of the aircraft sections can be de-mated and re-mated theoretically, but it's just never been done before," Scott Taylor, Lockheed Martin's lead mechanical engineer on the project, said in a press release announcing the project in 2023. "This is the first F-35 'Frankin-bird' to date. This is history."

Less than two years later, the "Franken-bird" jet made its maiden flight on January 16. Following the successful functional check flight, the salvaged F-35 is set to undergo final tests and work before returning to combat status.

Scrap to salvage
The back of an F-35A was damaged by an engine fire.
The rear end of an F-35A was damaged by an engine fire.

US Air Force

In 2014, an F-35, tail number AF-27, was severely damaged at the Eglin Air Force Base in Florida after an engine fire burned the rear two-thirds of the aircraft. The cost of damage was estimated to be over $50 million, according to the Air Education and Training Command. The airframe was recycled as a damage and repair trainer for maintenance crews

In 2020, a landing gear malfunction caused an F-35, tail number AF-211, to crash, severely damaging its nose. The damaged airframe and its engine were preserved at Hill Air Force Base in Utah since the landing gear collapse.

Dave Myers, the lead engineer at the F-35 Joint Program Office Lightning Support Team, told Air & Space Forces Magazine that there was "no degradation" to the airframes, so splicing them together into the "Franken-bird" wouldn't impact its capabilities.

The first 'Franken-bird'
Engineers move parts of the F-35 using specially designed fixtures and tools.
Engineers move parts of the F-35 using specially designed fixtures and tools.

US Air Force

Hangared in the 4th Fighter Generation Squadron, maintainers created unique tools and equipment to support and join the nose section of the AF-27 and the rear section of the AF-211 since it was the first attempt at the ambitious repair job.

"When we received the aircraft, it was pretty much a shell," Senior Airman Jaguar Arnold, the aircraft's crew chief from the 4th FGS, said in a statement released last month. "There were a lot of tasks to complete that we hadn't done before at the unit level."

The repair process also incorporated some technical updates and new components, including reinforcement structures on its outer shell. Technicians reinstalled the landing gear, rewired the avionics systems, and rebuilt the cockpit.

"The F-35 program is still young compared to all legacy airframes," Myers said. "We are doing this for the first time, and organizationally for the future, we are creating a process we can move forward with."

A $6 million refurbished aircraft
Airmen stand near the restored F-35 on the flight line.
Airmen stand near the restored F-35 on the flight line.

US Air Force photo by Todd Cromar

The resounding success of the F-35 restoration efforts provided valuable technical experience for maintainers to improve installation and inspection processes.

"When we took responsibility for this project, we were taking on something unprecedented at the field level, and it wasn't easy," 1st Lt. Ryan Bare, Sortie Generation Flight commander for the 4th FGS, said. "That can't be overstated."

"But we were also taking on an opportunity for our maintainers to gain proficiency in this type of work and build experience at the unit level," Bare added. "As a program, and as a unit, we've benefited greatly from this."

The "Franken-bird" also had the added benefit of growing the Air Force's operational fleet β€” at a fraction of the cost. The aircraft restoration project cost an estimated $6 million, whereas a new F-35 jet costs over $80 million.

While the F-35 is the Defense Department's most advanced and costliest weapon system, Congress has questioned whether the stealth fighter's capabilities justify its steep price tag, especially as the program continues to be plagued by cost overruns, production delays, and maintenance and performance issues.

The DoD extended the F-35's projected operational life from 2077 to 2088, prompting the total estimated cost of the program to exceed $2 trillion. The US military operates about 630 F-35 variants with plans to procure over 1,800 more jets for the Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy by the mid-2040s.

Return to the fleet
A F-35A restored from two damaged aircraft flies during its functional check flight.
An F-35A that was restored from two damaged aircraft flew in a clear sky during its functional check flight.

US Air Force photo by Todd Cromar

After the "Franken-bird" completed its functional check flights in January, the aircraft was transported to a Lockheed Martin facility in Fort Worth, Texas, where it will complete final certifications to restore its combat-ready status.

The section behind the jet's nose, which is only covered with anti-corrosion primer, will also be finished by applying low-observable materials.

The aircraft is set to return to combat status with the 4th Fighter Squadron around March, though it could be fully operational well before then, according to Dan Santos, the F-35 JPO heavy maintenance manager.

"Not only will this project return a combat asset back to the warfighter," Santos said in a 2023 statement, "but it opens the door for repairing future mishap aircraft using tooling, equipment, techniques, and knowledge that has been developed."

Read the original article on Business Insider

China's new stealth fighter spooks Wall Street about Lockheed Martin's F-35

28 January 2025 at 13:28
Wall Street analysts changed their ratings for Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-35 Lightning II, after photos emerged showing two Chinese stealth fighter prototypes.
Wall Street analysts changed their ratings for Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-35 Lightning II, after photos emerged showing two Chinese stealth fighter prototypes.

US Navy

  • Wall Street analysts changed their Lockheed ratings after photos emerged of new Chinese jets.
  • They worry that the US could buy fewer Lockheed F-35s in favor of future jets still being designed.
  • However, there is little evidence so far China's new aircraft could match the F-35's capabilities.

Glimpses of China's next-generation jet fighter don't just worry the Pentagon.

Wall Street worries that Lockheed Martin β€” maker of the three versions of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter, the most expensive weapon in history β€” could see its stock price tumble if the US military opts to buy fewer F-35s in favor of more advanced aircraft.

Deutsche Bank analyst Scott Deuschle had raised Lockheed's rating to Buy in July, as market analysts predicted that multiple wars and higher global defense spending would boost revenue for the giant defense firm. Lockheed stock took a tumble Tuesday after trading around $500 a share, versus around $400 just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has precipitated a frantic arms buildup in Europe and beyond.

But Deuschle downgraded Lockheed after China unveiled two stealth fighter prototypes in December. Little is known about the prototypes but some worry they could outmatch the F-35, a fifth-generation aircraft that first flew in 2006. Other investment banks also cut their ratings for Lockheed.

"We're downgrading Lockheed to Hold (from Buy) as we feel our prior thesis struggles to hold water and we have increased concern on the long-term support for F-35 in the face of China's combat aircraft modernization efforts," Deuschle recently told investors, according to the Barron's financial newspaper. His estimate for Lockheed's share price dropped from $611 to $523.

The crux of the issue is that the US military is buying lots of F-35s. The Air Force plans to acquire 1,763 F-35A models by 2049, the Navy 273 carrier-based F-35Cs, and the Marine Corps 67 F-35Cs and 353 jump-jet F-35Bs. And this comes amid the increasing clout of SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, a top Trump advisor who recently called manned fighter jets like the F-35 obsolete.

Yet at the same time, the military is developing sixth-generation fighters, including the Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance program (NGAD) and the Navy's F/A-XX, the replacement for its carrier-based fighters like the Super Hornet. The NGAD, which the Air Force hopes could fly by 2030, will have more advanced features than the F-35, including better engines, sensors and stealth capabilities, as well as the ability to team with robot fighters such as the Collaborative Combat Aircraft.

An F-35C Lightning II readies to launch from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the South China Sea.
An F-35C Lightning II readies to launch from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson in the South China Sea.

MC3 Nate Jordan/US Navy

If sixth-generation fighters are coming, analysts worry that the Pentagon could buy fewer F-35s and spend the money on more advanced aircraft. "The reveal of further advancements in combat aircraft capabilities by China as potentially undermining long-term [Department of Defense] demand for the F-35 aircraft," Deuschle wrote.

Deuschle's concern is real, however there's little public evidence to compare the new Chinese prototypes pound-for-pound with the F-35; even whether it is a fifth-generation aircraft is debated, with some airpower experts skeptical China has built the world's first six-generation aircraft.

pic.twitter.com/IZ9BlwjoOc

β€” Justin Bronk (@Justin_Br0nk) December 26, 2024

The F-35 has become the poster child for what critics denounce as wasteful government spending by the military-industrial complex. The program has been mired in controversy, delays and cost overruns since its inception in the 1990s.

The total price of the F-35, including acquisition and maintenance, has soared to more than $2 trillion, which is more than the annual GDP of most nations (US gross domestic product is $27.3 trillion). Even though more than 1,000 aircraft have already been delivered to the US and other nations, there are still concerns about bugs such as excessive maintenance demands, fragile stealth coatings, and a cannon that can't shoot straight.

Compounding the problem is that F-35 acquisition will stretch over decades. Only 110 were delivered in 2024, and the US Air Force won't receive the last jet until 2049. Given how rapidly technology evolves, a procurement program that stretches out more than 40 years is bound to struggle with obsolescence at some point.

Nonetheless, the fact that the F-35 has survived all the controversy is a warning not to underestimate its prospects. Put simply, the F-35 program may be too big to fail. The US military has invested enormous resources β€” and prestige β€” in the aircraft, while politicians may be reluctant to kill the golden goose. "More than 1,900 suppliers build and sustain the F-35 program in 48 US states and in more than 10 countries," boasts Lockheed Martin's F-35 website. Lockheed's net earnings fell in the fourth quarter to $527 million, down from $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, and contributed to the stock's slide to $457 per share.

Whatever the flaws of the F-35, what aircraft could realistically replace it right now? The US combat air fleet is aging: the average F-16, for example, is more than 30 years old. The Air Force has hedged its bets by buying some F-15EX fighters to supplement the F-35. But while the F-15 has proven highly capable, an upgraded 1980s design can only so far into the 21st Century.

That pretty much leaves the inchoate NGAD as the alternative. But this naturally raises another question: given the problems with the F-35 and other big Pentagon projects, what if America's sixth-generation fighter projects also suffer delays, cost overruns and teething problems? The Air Force has already paused the NGAD program amid estimates that the NGAD fighters will cost $250 million apiece, or about triple the price of an F-35.

Skeptics may also question the alarm over China's new aircraft. So far, all the world has seen is a few images of two new Chinese aircraft. Despite breathless warnings that China might field a sixth-generation fighter before America does, the capabilities β€” and limitations β€” of the Chinese designs have yet to be revealed.

During the Cold War, new Russian weapons would be unveiled that would spur American fears of falling behind in the arms race, such as the mythical "bomber gap" of the 1950s. Often these Russian wonder weapons turned out to be dismal on the battlefield. America and China are vying to develop sixth-generation aircraft and other technologies like hypersonic missiles. But the threat posed by new Chinese stealth aircraft could similarly prove illusory.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Read the original article on Business Insider

In an F-35 funding fight, Musk will need to win over a skeptical Congress and Trump

27 November 2024 at 01:00
A US F-35 in flight.
A US F-35 in flight.

US Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jack Rodgers

  • Elon Musk sharply criticized the F-35 stealth jet and its builder, Lockheed Martin.
  • Musk could target the expensive program as part of his efforts to cut federal spending under Trump.
  • Congress has historically valued the stealth fighter flown by three military branches despite its problems.

Just weeks after President-elect Donald Trump tasked Elon Musk with cutting government spending, the SpaceX CEO criticized the Pentagon's most expensive weapons program: the F-35.

Musk called the jet's design "shit" and derided the "idiots" making the fifth-generation stealth fighter, which is widely considered a cornerstone of US airpower. His comments suggest he could be eyeing the $2 trillion F-35 program, and possibly other fighter jets, for potential spending cuts.

To do so would be an uphill battle. He would likely need to first convince Trump, who has for years repeatedly celebrated the F-35 for its high-end stealth capabilities. Then he would need to gain support within the Pentagon and Congress, which controls its funding.

Elon Musk
Elon Musk has been tasked to find ways to cut federal spending.

ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images

DOGE could target defense spending and the extremely expensive F-35

Trump has tapped Musk to head the new Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, charged with targeting government waste. Defense spending is a big potential target for the initiative.

It is the largest discretionary spending category in the federal budget, with the Pentagon's fiscal year 2024 budget of $824.3 billion. And the Department of Defense recently failed its seventh audit in a row.

The F-35 has had many problems. It suffered setbacks in development, and it continues to face cost overruns and readiness issues, with availability declining even as the program costs rise. Earlier this year, a government watchdog report found that the program will cost over $2 trillion over its lifetime.

In posts on X this week, Musk sharply criticized both the stealth fighter jet and, indirectly, its manufacturer: US defense giant Lockheed Martin. He said drones can now replicate the effect of crewed aircraft on the battlefield.

He also wrote that the F-35 fighter's design "was broken at the requirements level because it was required to be too many things to too many people. This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes."

An F-35 Lightning II streaks across the sky while doing maneuvers to the Eglin Air Force Base runway.
The F-35 is the Pentagon's most expensive weapons program.

US Air Force photo/Samuel King Jr.

Some defense analysts say the combat-proven aircraft is still a vital capability in America's arsenal β€” one that can't just be replaced by drones.

The multirole fighter jet is flown by the Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, with three different versions for operating off traditional runways, big-deck amphibious assault ships, and aircraft carriers. It was designed to execute air combat, ground attack, and other missions. The plane first took flight nearly 20 years ago and is expected to serve until 2088.

In response to Musk's comments, a Lockheed Martin spokesperson said the F-35 is "the most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter aircraft in the world, a vital deterrent and the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations." They added that Lockheed looks forward "to a strong working relationship with President Trump, his team, and also with the new Congress to strengthen our national defense."

A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment on Musk's criticisms of the F-35 when asked about them at a Tuesday media briefing.

Photo of F-35
The F-35 is a combat-proven aircraft whose sophisticated design has come with challenges.

US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class August Clawson

Any proposed cuts to the F-35 program could face opposition in Congress from lawmakers who have historically supported it for the spending it brings to many districts in the form of factory jobs. In fact, the House's defense spending bill for the 2025 fiscal year called for more F-35s than what the Pentagon initially requested.

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for information on whether it plans to reduce or end the F-35 program.

How Musk could save money on the F-35 program

Michael Bohnert, a licensed engineer at the RAND Corporation, told BI the F-35 fighter is "cost-competitive" with global alternatives.

Bohnert said taking away the pilot wouldn't really change costs, and it would require multiple drones to begin to recreate the capabilities of an F-35. The ultimate costs of those platforms could end up being more expensive and, ultimately, still less capable.

A better way to save money, he said, would be to improve the cost efficiency of munitions and automate maintenance.

An F-35B is parked on the top deck of an aircraft carrier.
The F-35 delivers a range of capabilities that would be tough to replicate using uncrewed aircraft.

US Navy/Cmdr. Darin Russell

"Augmenting F-35s with unmanned systems would be valuable, but unmanned systems are no replacement," he said. Canceling the fighter altogether "would be one of the biggest gifts imaginable for America's enemies," he said.

Stacy Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, told BI that the US can't replace crewed aircraft with drones in the near term anyway. The technology isn't advanced enough yet.

She said that the Pentagon has not yet fielded fully lethal autonomous weapons "that are sophisticated and can make sense of their environments, decide what to do, and act fully on their own."

"Almost all of the drones that exist today are remotely piloted or at most semi-autonomous," she said. "Developing the autonomy responsibly and then deciding that we have trust in it to send it on extremely consequential missions that is the long pole in the tent."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Elon Musk said the F-35's makers are 'idiots' for still building manned jets as drone tech rises

25 November 2024 at 07:53
An F-35 flies in the sky and Elon Musk is dressed in a suit and tie in separate photos.
Elon Musk is criticizing the F-35, tweeting that it has a "shit design."

Joan Valls/Urbanandsport /NurPhoto via Getty Images and Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

  • Elon Musk criticized the F-35 program on Sunday.
  • Musk's comments come as he prepares to advise Trump on government efficiency in 2025.
  • The GAO expects the F-35 program to cost about $2 trillion over its entire lifespan.

Elon Musk, who's set to start advising President-elect Donald Trump on government efficiency in 2025, criticized the Pentagon's F-35 program in two social media posts on Sunday.

The billionaire reposted a video montage of coordinated drone swarms on X, writing: "Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35."

He added a "trash can" emoji to his post.

When another X user defended the F-35's capabilities, Musk responded that the prized jet is a "shit design."

Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35 πŸ—‘οΈ 🫠
pic.twitter.com/4JX27qcxz1

β€” Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 24, 2024

In another post, Musk said: "Crewed fighter jets are an inefficient way to extend the range of missiles or drop bombs. A reusable drone can do so without all the overhead of a human pilot."

"'Stealth' means nothing", he added, saying that it's "laughably easy" to shoot down fighter jets.

Musk has made similar arguments several times over the years.

Mauro Gilli, a senior researcher in military technology at the Center for Security Studies of the Swiss university ETH Zurich, told BI that Musk was echoing valid criticisms of the F-35 program.

But, he said, there were many problems with Musk's line of thinking.

Gilli acknowledged that the F-35 program has had well-documented cost and time overruns. But those problems are not primarily down to them being crewed aircraft, he told BI.

"The primary source of costs and problems was the electronics and, in particular, the software," he said.

And that would only get more expensive with a drone equivalent, he added.

"A drone operating within enemy airspace will not be remotely controlled," Gilli said. "It will need to have a very high level of autonomy."

This requires even more costly and complex electronics and software than even a piloted aircraft, he suggested.

According to Gilli, Musk's suggestion is to rely on something that has "so far been the primary source of cost and time delays. And so there is no reason to believe that these drones would be any cheaper."

Musk's emphasis on a "reusable" drone also means it would need all the same stealth capabilities as an F-35 in penetrating enemy airspace and evading air defenses, Gilli said, making his comments about stealth a moot point.

A target for DOGE?

It's unclear if Musk intends to use his new position to impact any plans or costs for the F-35, the Pentagon's most expensive fighter program to date.

But he mentioned Defense Department spending in a column in The Wall Street Journal that criticized federal government budgets.

"The Pentagon recently failed its seventh consecutive audit, suggesting that the agency's leadership has little idea how its annual budget of more than $800 billion is spent," Musk wrote in the column with Vivek Ramaswamy, who is to lead Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency with him.

Musk and Ramaswamy wrote that the intention of their department is to eliminate the "sheer magnitude of waste, fraud, and abuse that nearly all taxpayers wish to end."

As for the F-35, costs for the Lockheed Martin-developed stealth jet have hit about $485 billion, after a 10% bump this year due to what the Pentagon said was a need to improve its engine cooling.

Around 1,000 of the planes have been delivered to the US military and its allies, out of a total of over 3,000 aircraft planned for production over the F-35 program's lifetime.

The jet's operational lifespan is estimated to last until 2088, and the Government Accountability Office thus expects the F-35 program to cost over $2 trillion to produce and sustain.

Musk did not respond to requests for comment from Business Insider, but he's said before that the US should consider remote-piloted alternatives to manned jets, both to keep up with the rise in drone warfare and also to help Air Force procurement stay competitive.

In response to Musk's tweets, a Lockheed Martin spokesperson told BI that the F-35 is "the most advanced, survivable and connected fighter aircraft in the world, a vital deterrent and the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations."

"As we did in his first term, we look forward to a strong working relationship with President Trump, his team, and also with the new Congress to strengthen our national defense," they added.

Meanwhile, a Pentagon spokesperson told BI: "We have combat capable aircraft in operation today and they perform exceptionally well against the threat for which they were designed."

The spokesperson added: "Pilots continually emphasize that this is the fighter they want to take to war if called upon."

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