• Some NATO countries are considering alternatives to the F-35 stealth fighter jet.
• The Trump administration's shifted stance towards Europe has allies concerned about reliability.
• Lockheed's business is feeling the trust erosion between the US and its allies, an analyst said.

The Trump administration is throwing some cold water on the once-hot market for Lockheed Martin's F-35 stealth fighter. And that's not the company's only headache.

At least two NATO militaries are weighing alternatives to the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter as the US signals in public statements and unintentionally leaked private chats that it is less committed to Europe's defense. Top Trump officials have characterized Europe as a "pathetic" freeloader.

Trump's trade wars and public spats with the leaders of countries buying F-35s pose risks for Lockheed, which makes the fifth-generation F-35 fighter for the US military and foreign customers, aviation experts said.

A reduction in F-35 purchases by foreign buyers would drive up the cost-per-unit of jets, including for the US because the fixed costs can be spread across fewer planes.

Many foreign military sales "are now endangered by these new concerns about US reliability," said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor on defense and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

To make matters worse for Lockheed, Trump last week selected its rival, Boeing, to build the next-generation F-47 stealth fighter. Lockheed's stock briefly dropped following the contract announcement, and Bank of America downgraded the defense giant, citing the F-47 contract upset.

A Lockheed spokesperson said that "foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions, so anything further will be best addressed by the US or respective customer governments." And on the F-47, the company has said it will continue to work with the Air Force on new capabilities.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment from BI on recent turbulence.

Growing anxiety

The Trump administration's warming position toward Russia and its criticism of NATO countries has triggered a shift in how some members of the alliance view their defense relationship with the US. NATO countries field a variety of US-made weapons, but the F-35 is a top product.

Earlier this month, Portugal's defense minister said that the country should re-consider replacing its arsenal of F-16s with the more advanced F-35s, citing the US stance on security issues as cause for concern.

Canada's defense minister then said the country would review alternatives to the F-35 amid rising tensions with the US over Trump-ordered tariffs and other trade threats.

A Canadian defense ministry spokesperson told BI that Canada is not canceling its planned F-35 fighter procurement, with deliveries set to begin next year. They said the ministry is "in the early stages" of reviewing the current F-35 process "in a way that is both efficient and thorough."

Last week, the chairman of Denmark's parliamentary defense committee said he regretted buying the F-35, citing concerns that the US State Department could abruptly block spare parts needed to maintain the aircraft. He said purchasing American weapons is now "a security risk."

The country's defense ministry told BI that "any limitations in the use of Danish F-35 aircraft are classified information, but Denmark is still open to buying additional F-35 aircraft in the future."

Denmark, like Canada, is an original F-35 program participant. The fifth-gen aircraft has also been sold to another dozen countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Since the first F-35 rolled off the factory floor nearly two decades ago, over 1,100 jets have been delivered to allied and partner militaries.

Three other F-35 program participants, specifically the UK, Australia, and the Netherlands, voiced their continued support for this program.

The Dutch defense ministry told BI that there's "no reason to assume that the good cooperation with the US in the F-35 program will change or stop," and a spokesperson for the Australian defense ministry said that it is "committed to continued investment" in the F-35.

Other allies, like Germany, have also reiterated their support for the program, even amid lingering uncertainty. A spokesperson for Poland's defense ministry told BI that its F-35 program "is being implemented according to schedule. Currently, there are no decisions on the possible termination of the agreements signed with the American side."

Questioning alliances

NATO allies have not yet made any firm decisions to pull the plug on more F-35 procurement, but unease has replaced a once certain confidence. Analysts and experts say that US allies may be justifiably concerned about the potential leverage the Trump administration could have over them.

There's no kill switch or anything like that for the jets, but the US provides critical additional support for its weapons that makes them effective. American-led maintenance and supply chains, as well as networks and planning support, are essential to the program. Without them, these jets could end up being display pieces costing in excess of $80 million.

As with other weapons systems, the State Department must approve potential F-35 sales to foreign buyers. Trump raised eyebrows last week when he said some US allies might only be able to buy a less-capable version of the coming F-47. The US has sold modified export models of weapons, but the reasoning here was notable.

When he announced that Boeing Co., a longtime leader in stealth aircraft production, will build the sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance, or NGAD, fighter, Trump said that allies could purchase a "toned-down" version of the aircraft "because, someday, maybe they're not our allies."

Richard Aboulafia, an aviation expert and the managing director of the US consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, said that reduced foreign exports could drive up US purchasing costs. That's not great for the F-35 program.

The jet has faced criticism, including from the cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency head Elon Musk, for design issues, program costs, and persistent sustainability challenges. There's a risk the plane could be targeted in future budget decisions, though that would be a bigger fight.

"There is a scenario where a bunch of export orders go away, and a bunch of domestic US orders go away," Aboulafia said, adding that this "would make this a much more expensive airplane and, therefore, more vulnerable to cuts."

Lockheed expects to deliver up to 190 F-35s to the US and its allies in 2025.

Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, who previously served as NATO's deputy assistant secretary-general for the alliance's defense-investment division, told BI that while it's possible a US administration could use F-35 support as leverage, "doing so would come at a high strategic cost and provoke resistance from Congress, allies, and industry," not just Lockheed.

Davis told BI there are a number of constraints on the administration after the aircraft has been sold, including contractual obligations, jeopardizing multinational defense cooperation, and driving away foreign interest in the F-35.

He said that allied countries vary in their vulnerability. "Countries without a domestic alternative and not involved in the F-35 component and parts production would be the most vulnerable to such a tactic," Davis said.

There are some European-made alternatives to the F-35, like the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter. However, no European jet matches the fifth-generation F-35, a low-observable networking platform capable of quarterbacking a range of combat capabilities.

• The grinding Ukraine war has seen a rise in hit-to-kill drone interceptions of other drones.
• Kyiv and Moscow are increasingly using drones to take out enemy systems above the battlefield.
• This new tactic is pushing Ukraine to develop drones specifically for interceptor roles.

In the contested skies above Ukraine, a new kind of warfare is rapidly emerging as drones are increasingly sent on new attack missions. Their targets aren't armored vehicles or fighting positions — they are other drones.

Combat footage from the war in Ukraine has repeatedly captured these hit-to-kill intercepts in which a cheap drone slams into another unmanned aircraft. This practice is a cost-effective air-defense option that both the Ukrainians and Russians are using and intently pursuing.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's minister for digital transformation, posted on Telegram in April that his country was on the hunt for interceptor drone solutions to shoot down Russian surveillance assets, the front-line eyes for strike drones and Russian artillery, "without wasting air defense assets."

Nataliia Kushnerska, a senior executive in Ukraine's defense industry, told Business Insider that using uncrewed systems in this way "marks the emergence of an entirely new segment of modern warfare — drone-on-drone combat."

A new tactic in the evolving drone war

Drones have dominated the battlefield throughout much of the Ukraine war, being used for land, sea, and air missions. Cheap first-person view (FPV) drones are frequently used to carry out pinpoint strikes on enemy armor and troop positions, while larger systems collect intelligence.

But as the war has dragged on, drones have increasingly been used in an air-defense role to take down enemy uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) carrying out reconnaissance and attack missions. These aerial engagements can, at times, resemble the fierce dogfights of the World Wars.

An outfit that makes combat FPV drones posted in August that its modified drones had taken out 100 Russian UAVs. The Wild Hornets, as the operation calls itself, shared footage of some of the interceptions.

Kushnerska, the chief operating officer of Brave1, a Ukrainian government platform that facilitates innovation within the country's defense industry, said interceptor drones have become "one of the innovations of this war."

The tactic, she said, makes it more difficult for Russia to operate its drones deep behind the front lines and collect data to facilitate missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian positions, which has been a real challenge for Ukraine as Russia pushes to expand its reconnaissance strike complex. This also awards Kyiv more flexibility to carry out its military operations and maneuvers.

Kushnerska said Ukraine was the first to use drones to intercept Russian reconnaissance UAVs, but Moscow has since adapted to the tactic and found ways to evade the interceptors. Now, efforts are underway to improve the systems so they remain effective.

It is the latest iteration of what a senior Ukrainian official previously described to BI as a cat-and-mouse game between Kyiv and Moscow, where each side is constantly attempting to one-up the other in developing drones and other war-related technology.

Samuel Bendett, an expert on drones and Russian defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, told BI Moscow is similarly using FPV drones to take out Ukrainian systems and that Russia has also equipped its drones with defenses against interceptor drones, such as electronic-warfare jamming systems.

Bendett said that the Ukrainians "have gotten very successful in fielding their FPV drones against Russian ISR assets, and the Russians have gotten successful, up to a point, with using their FPV drones to go after Ukrainian heavy quadcopter UAVs."

Interceptor drones are limited in range and altitude and often carry less explosive power than more traditional air defenses like missiles. Drones provide Ukraine and Russia with an alternative way to take down aerial threats, one in which the cost of the intercept is often less than that of the system being targeted.

Kushnerska said an interceptor drone typically costs between $2,000 and $4,000. An air-defense missile, on the other hand, could cost hundreds of thousands — or even millions — of dollars. Using drones reduces dependency on more expensive munitions and frees up Ukraine's air-defense units to focus on the bigger threats like Russian aircraft and more deadly cruise and ballistic missiles.

Pursuit of more interceptor drones

For the Ukrainian soldiers tasked with intercepting Russian drones, it's a dangerous mission.

One drone operator in the Ukrainian military told BI that he operates from trench shelters very close to the front lines. He said the pilots are priority targets for Russia, which will use "every single thing at its disposal" to take them out.

The Ukrainian operator said that drone-on-drone combat is increasing. He said he sometimes uses interceptor drones up to five times a week. But Ukraine needs more of them.

Kyiv has taken steps to procure more of these interceptor drones. Last month, for instance, a Ukrainian drone engineering company announced it had completed testing for a new FPV drone designed to take down Russian reconnaissance UAVs, like the Orlan, and was ready for military use.

But there's still more to be done. Valeriy Romanenko, a former air-defense officer who's now a researcher at Ukraine's State Aviation Museum, told BI that Kyiv's interceptor drones are good for slower reconnaissance UAVs at lower altitudes.

However, he said, Kyiv ultimately needs faster interceptor drones to take down Russia's deadly attack drones, like the notorious Shahed-136. In October alone, Moscow fired around 2,000 of these systems at Ukraine, according to Western intelligence.

The Wild Hornets have been working on a new "Sting" UAV to effectively combat the Shaheds, but it's a work in progress.

This hit-to-kill intercept tactic has implications well beyond Ukraine and could be used in future conflicts, too. Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and strategist, said the use of drones for interceptions will likely be a lasting element of military operations.

"This is a trend that's here to stay unless there is some fundamental breakthrough in very low-cost anti-drone systems, and we're not seeing that at this point," he told BI. "I think this is an enduring kind of capability that many militaries should be looking at."