• US special operators are shifting away from counterterrorism toward peer-adversary conflict.
• There are five areas the US special operations community can focus on to best do that, new research says.
• These areas harken back to the strengths of special ops in the Cold War and the War on Terror.

As the US shifts its priorities toward countering near-peer adversaries like Russia and China, its special operations forces are adapting to new challenges.

Best practices for that ongoing adaptation may lie in Cold War lessons, new research on how the US can best leverage the skills of the special operations community says.

An Atlantic Council's report on ways the US can use special operations forces in the next decade was released Tuesday and notes that "three realities" facing the Department of Defense lend themselves to leveraging American special operations forces "more in strategic competition."

US special operations forces offer critical flexibility amid stagnation in defense spending and force size and can counter aggressors elsewhere while the military prioritizes the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Special operators can also use irregular capabilities to prevent competition from turning into armed conflict.

The report's authors, Clementine Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend, argue that US special operations should return to their "roots" and Cold War practices.

"USSOF's unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide," they wrote.

"During that era, special operations became one of the US military's key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict," the authors added, noting they can do the same again now.

Keeping an eye on non-priority regions

Rivals and foes around the world are pulling the US military in different directions. It's facing threats from an aggressive Russia, a rising and often confrontational China, and joint challenges from increased cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Threats from non-state actors also remain.

So where do special operations come in?

"While traditional elements of the Joint Force are likely to focus on the Indo-Pacific region and Europe, the DoD can mitigate risks and extend its global reach by leveraging USSOF for persistent, low-footprint operations in under-addressed regions," the new Atlantic Council's report says.

These areas include the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Arctic as prime examples.

US adversaries like Russia and China look to extend their presence and influence in these areas, meaning the Pentagon could use special ops to protect US interests and preserve situational awareness.

Preventing full-blown conflict with unconventional, irregular warfare tactics

To deter conflict, the US military can use special ops to up activities in the cyberspace and information environment that expend adversary resources. Some of SOF's biggest strengths are in this area, including intelligence campaigns, warping information and communications spaces, unconventional tactics that target US adversaries and create narratives favorable to Washington, sabotage, and deception.

Two prime examples could include supporting Taiwan's resilience against a potential Chinese invasion or blockade and Eastern European resistance to Russia's hybrid warfare and disinformation tactics.

During the Cold War, special operations forces conducted similar operations against the Soviet Union, bolstering resistance groups in Europe and undermining Soviet campaigns.

Skills from the Global War on Terror can be applied as well. Over the past 20 years, the US has relied on special operations for unconventional and difficult missions, including running shadowy helicopter assaults to kill or capture enemy leaders. These activities advance national security objectives.

Building connections with key allies and partners

Christopher Maier, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, said earlier this week that the other strength of special ops comes with its widespread global footprint and cultural awareness, which helps build connections between the US and its allies and partners.

Special ops leaders have long recognized that language and cultural sensitivity are absolutely critical to the force's success, but a recent watchdog report raised concerns about those skills.

Between 2018 and 2022, most Army and Marine Corps Special Operations Forces didn't meet the necessary foreign language proficiency goals.

Such skills have been vital for US military cooperation with allies in the past. Us Army Special Forces, the Green Berets, have been training and advising foreign armies and guerrillas since the early 1960s.

Similarly, US special operations cooperation with foreign SOFs is critical, the Atlantic Council paper says, and vital to building resilient relationships with partners that can help deter and deny the influence of US adversaries.

Putting the "integration" in integrated deterrence

US government and military responses to crises and conflict often need to be integrated responses, something special operations forces can help provide, the report argues.

"USSOF operations often bridge the activities of interagency and intelligence community partners, allied and partner militaries, and the rest of the joint force," the paper says, adding that special operations could be the "connective tissue."

That special operations "tissue" could connect US government departments like State, Justice, and Treasury Departments, as well as the Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency.

Using SOF's technological prowess to US advantage

Future warfare is expected to span across all domains, including information and cyber. As technological capabilities, such as artificial intelligence, develop at breakneck speed, special operations can play a pivotal role as a "pathfinder for technological solutions that can be scaled across the Joint Force," the report says.

Such a "pathfinder" role could include facilitating data sharing across the military and government and identifying and fielding cutting-edge technologies, especially in unmanned systems.

SOF's procurement process and culture has given it the opportunity to quickly develop and deploy innovative technologies and systems before the larger joint force.

That also sets special ops up for focusing on what the demand of future warfare could be, which could "support DoD's information and decision advantage over its competitors," the Atlantic Council report adds.

• Corruption has been plaguing China's military, including senior leadership.
• The issues and purges raise questions about China's military readiness and its ambitions.
• China's military has long struggled with graft, but it's growth and modernization can't be overlooked.

Corruption investigations have led to significant high-level purges in the Chinese military. A US Department of Defense official said that these purges are "just the tip of the iceberg" and that the issues affecting the military could hinder its ambitions, including Taiwan.

The Defense Department released its annual report on China's military last month, assessing that the People's Liberation Army has "experienced a new wave of corruption-related investigations and removals of senior leaders that may have disrupted its progress towards stated 2027 modernization goals."

China's leadership has directed the PLA to be fully ready to execute a potential invasion or blockade of Taiwan as a professional fighting force should Beijing opt to pursue that path.

The PLA has long faced corruption scandals, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has spent the last decade cracking down as part of a wider campaign to root out corruption and ensure loyalty to the Communist Party. But the latest string of cases has left the Pentagon questioning China's military ambitions and their ability to achieve them in the Pacific.

At an event in mid-December with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Chase said the US has assessed "the anti-corruption campaign — the corruption challenges themselves — and how they could present real obstacles to accomplishing the goals that Xi has set for the PLA for 2027."

"Just the tip of the iceberg"

Over the past year and half, China has sacked at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives. A prominent example includes the dismissal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu. China also expelled Li and another defense minister from the ruling party over graft. The suspension of Adm. Miao Hua from his position as the Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission in November 2024, was also significant.

Leaders within the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force have also been removed.

PLARF's leadership has faced allegations of fraud in the construction of silos for ballistic missiles, and US intelligence has reported on missiles filled with water and intercontinental ballistic missile silos equipped with improperly functioning lids that could derail a missile launch.

At CSIS last month, Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner said a key takeaway from the corruption crackdown: corruption investigations such as this are typically highly secretive. Beijing has often publicly described the current wave of dismissals as "serious violations of discipline."

"We often don't hear about them until they're done," Ratner said of the Chinese corruption investigations. "And what that should lead us to believe is that what we are seeing now — which already has been substantial, right, 15 senior PLA officials already rounded up — is just the tip of the iceberg."

Chase added that there can be a spiral effect in these kinds of situations, where an investigation may reveal further corruption in a different branch or program. That's broadly been the case in the current wave of allegations.

China's military growth and Taiwan

The PLA has long suffered from corruption issues. Since he took office, Xi's anti-corruption campaign has been seen as a renewed effort to root out problems while also ensuring the PLA is both politically loyal to Chinese Communist Party leadership and prepared for any military directives Xi gives it.

China has pursued massive military buildup and growth over the past decade or so, with its eyes set on Taiwan and challenging the US as a peer adversary, but that's also driven corruption.

"The PLA is modernizing so quickly, and they're spending significant amounts of money to build up their forces," said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that widespread graft is, in many ways, also "a manifestation of the rapid pace of PLA modernization."

A concentration of the PLA purges being in equipment procurements and the defense industrial base supports the argument that the corruption could be tied to how quickly and aggressively the military is attempting to build up its forces and capabilities.

That raises questions of whether the PLA is on track to meet its mandated modernization goals — a concern that likely keeps Xi up at night, Hart said.

"Does that really undermine the PLA's ability to fight and win wars, especially when it comes to Taiwan?" he asked.

The Pentagon said in its recent report that an investigation announced in July 2023 related to weapons procurement programs dating back to 2017 pointed to "significant concerns with the PLA's modernization efforts more broadly."

What does corruption mean for China's military goals?

Despite the corruption, China's military has achieved tremendous military growth across its branches, from procuring advanced aircraft and bolstering its naval forces to doubling the number of missiles that can reach Guam.

Its military exercises in the Western Pacific, specifically around Taiwan, have grown in size and frequency, and it puts pressure on US allies. And there have been other demonstrations of might.

In September 2024, PLARF carried out an intercontinental ballistic missile test in the Pacific for the first time in 40 years, an apparent signal that despite its challenges with corruption, it maintains power and ambition.

Since the US election, China has been flexing its muscles, sending a clear message to the incoming Trump administration.

The ultimate goal, Hart explained, of Xi's anti-corruption campaign has been to ensure the PLA can modernize on the timeline he has implemented. Even with some issues along the way, China's military growth shows that effort has seen its successes.

Despite the Pentagon's observations, it remains unclear if the PLA's corruption problems will impact China's 2027 goals.

• China has been busy lately showcasing its military might and hybrid warfare tactics.
• The moves come ahead of Trump's return to the White House this month.
• Its activities highlight China's ambitions and intentions and the challenge it poses.

Since the 2024 US presidential election, China has been surprisingly busy with overt and covert displays of might that represent a challenge for the US, both the current and incoming administrations.

China, long identified as the Pentagon's "pacing challenge," has flexed new military capabilities, increased pressure on US allies and partners, and engaged in hybrid warfare in cyberspace.

Over the past couple of months, suspected next-generation Chinese combat aircraft have appeared, China's navy has launched new warships, the Chinese military simulated a naval blockade of Japan for the first time and carried out massive drills near Taiwan, the US has blamed Chinese hackers for major hacks of the Treasury Department and telecommunications firms, and concerns have been raised about China's involvement in damage to critical undersea infrastructure.

Some of Beijing's recent actions might be "part of a long-term strategy to shape a new (or returning) administration's approach to China and deter external support for Taiwan," Matthew Funaiole, a senior fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider.

China has been flexing its military muscles in a big way

China deployed around 90 of its navy and coast guard vessels around Taiwan, as well as southern Japanese islands, for a large-scale exercise, Taiwan said in December. Beijing didn't announce anything ahead of time and hasn't acknowledged it as a military drill.

Taiwan recorded over 60 incursions into its air defense identification zone and said Chinese forces were simulating attacks on foreign ships and disrupting the navigation of others.

The exercise was China's largest since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. It followed Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's visit to several Pacific partners, which Beijing condemned, and came ahead of Trump's return to the White House. China routinely ramps up demonstrations of military power at symbolically important times for both international and domestic audiences.

Giselle Donnelly, a senior fellow in defense and national security policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said that the timing of these exercises "is more than coincidence," not unlike Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts over the last few months to put pressure on Ukraine before Trump takes office and US aid to Kyiv faces an uncertain future.

Chinese leadership may see exercises like this as a way to "get an early read" on the incoming Trump administration's approach to US-Chinese politics, she added.

In December, China also held military exercises resembling a naval blockade in the Miyako Strait between Japan's main island and Miyako Island, Japanese officials told The Yomiuri Shimbun, which reported the news earlier this month.

And just before ringing in 2025, China announced its air and naval forces were conducting combat readiness patrols around the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed area in the South China Sea near the Philippines that was the site of heightened and repeated confrontations between Beijing and Manila last year. Chinese vessels were accused of harassing Philippine ships, in some cases ramming them and blasting crews with water.

China has unveiled new capabilities

In November, China unveiled advanced aircraft at its Zhuhai Airshow, including the J-35A land-based stealth fighter. The Chinese developer hailed the fifth-gen jet's stealth, informationization, and networking capabilities, calling it a "point guard" for Chinese airpower — similar to how the F-35 stealth fighter has been referred to as a "quarterback" by Lockheed Martin and the US military.

The next month, however, China surprised Chinese aviation watchers with what observers suspect are prototypes of next-generation aircraft. The Pentagon said in its latest Chinese military power report that Beijing is developing new medium- and long-range stealth bombers to strike regional and global targets." It's unclear if the aircraft, which were flown in broad daylight, are part of those efforts.

China also launched the warship CNS Sichuan, China's first Type 076, and the world's largest amphibious assault vessel — an upgrade from China's Type 075 warship. The large ship features an electromagnetic catapult system for launching and retrieving fixed-wing and unmanned aircraft.

For several years now, the US Department of Defense has noted China's growing navy, already the world's largest, and shipbuilding prowess, as the industrial juggernaut churns out new vessels.

China has been called out for dangerous cyber activity

Washington has accused Chinese actors of engaging in major hacks lately.

Just before the new year, the Treasury revealed that suspected Chinese state-sponsored hackers had breached its systems and were able to "access certain unclassified documents" from department workstations. The department said it was working "fully characterize the incident and determine its overall impact."

The hack followed the discovery of a yearslong breach by China of US telecommunications companies. Top targets of the hack included Trump, his pick for vice president, J.D. Vance, and current VP Kamala Harris. Washington linked this hack to an incident involving Microsoft last summer. Lawmakers have expressed concern that encrypted calls and texts may no longer be secure.

White House Deputy national security advisor Anne Neuberger said that data belonging to millions of Americans was likely compromised by the hack and noted the US doesn't believe these hackers have been "fully removed" from targeted systems. 

Chinese actors are also believed to have accessed the Justice Department's list of wiretapped phone numbers related to potential espionage crimes. There have long been concerns about China's hybrid warfare and its potential for systems destruction warfare in a crisis situation.

China has also been accused of sabotaging undersea cables near Taiwan and been linked to an incident in the Baltic Sea. Experts and officials have assessed the efforts are in line with the larger hybrid warfare tactics employed by Beijing.

Over the past two months, China has showcased capabilities and engaged in actions that represent potential challenges for the US and its allies and partners. These are issues the incoming Trump administration will continue to face.

And it isn't China alone. US and other Western officials have increasingly expressed alarm at cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all of which have been stepping up their efforts to confront the US-led world order.

• China could destroy or neutralize US and allied airpower in a war with fewer shots than the other way around, a new report argues.
• China has prioritized hardening and expanding its airfields in the region at a faster rate than the US and its allies.
• The report's authors argue the US needs to prioritize defense, hardening airbases, and evolving its force.

In a war, China could suppress or destroy critical American airpower in the Indo-Pacific region with far fewer shots than it would take the US and its allies to do the same to Beijing's air forces, a new research report argues.

The report's authors note that China has been working faster than the US to harden its airbases and diversify its combat aircraft in the region, creating an imbalance in China's favor. American airfields are vulnerable to attack in a conflict, such as a fight over Taiwan.

A new Hudson Institute analysis from researchers Thomas Shugart and Timothy Walton highlights the serious threat facing US installations in the Pacific and echoes Department of Defense concerns about growing China's arsenal of missiles and those of US lawmakers about inadequate defenses.

In the report, Shugart and Walton write that China "has made major investments to defend, expand, and fortify" its airfields and more than doubled its hardened aircraft shelters and unhardened individual aircraft shelters over the past decade. China has also added to its taxiways and ramp areas. All of these efforts effectively give the Chinese military more places to protect and launch combat aircraft in a potential fight.

US efforts have been modest by comparison. And its military airfield capacity, including that of allies in the region, is roughly one-third of China's; without South Korea, that drops to one-quarter, and without the Philippines, it falls to just 15 percent.

The Air Force has been looking at dispersion and atypical runways as part of its Agile Combat Employment efforts, but there is still a notable shortfall that could be exploited.

This imbalance means it would take China far fewer missiles or airstrikes to neutralize US and allied airfields than it would the other way around, Shugart and Walton write. A preemptive strike, surprise being important in Chinese military doctrine, could catch the US and its allies off guard and give China an edge in air operations.

"Strategically, this destabilizing asymmetry risks incentivizing the PRC to exercise a first-mover advantage," the report says. "China could initiate a conflict if it sees an opportunity to nullify adversary airpower on the ramp."

Shugart wrote in 2017 that this is a real possibility, "particularly if China perceives that its attempts at deterrence of a major US intervention — say in a cross-strait Taiwan crisis or in a brewing dispute over the Senkaku Islands — have failed."

China has not been shy about its investments in being able to pull off such a strike, either. Beijing has invested heavily in its rocket force, with the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power documenting staggering growth in the number of stockpiled missiles and launchers, including the weapons it would need to hit US installations in the region. Satellite images have also documented mock American military assets, such as aircraft carriers, widely seen as missile targets.

For the conflicts and airpower operations in the Middle East, the US military enjoyed the ability to deploy to forward airfields uncontested, but the threat environment is different in the Pacific. A war with China would be very different.

But despite the significant concerns both within the Pentagon and Washington about vulnerabilities in US airbases, "the US military has devoted relatively little attention to countering these threats compared to its focus on developing modern aircraft," Shugart and Walton write. Older and newer aircraft differ in the air but are equally vulnerable on the ground.

The Ukraine war and ongoing fights in the Middle East have demonstrated that airfields are high-priority targets.

In order to counter the threat China poses, the Hudson report argues the US should invest further in active defenses for its air operations, harden its airfields to maintain resilience, and accelerate its efforts to field aircraft and unmanned systems that can operate from short or damaged runways or don't require runaways altogether, efforts fitting with ACE operations.

"Executing an effective campaign to enhance the resilience of US airfield operations will require informed decisions to prioritize projects — and sustained funding," Shugart and Walton write. "What is clear, however, is that US airfields do face the threat of attack, and the current DoD approach of largely ignoring this fact invites PRC aggression and risks losing a war." 

• US special operations forces are shifting their focus after decades of counterterrorism.
• Competition with China and Russia is reshaping how SOF supports the joint force.
• A senior Pentagon official said that special operations is also returning to its "roots."

A senior Pentagon official said this week that the role of US special operations is changing as the US faces increasing competition and challenges from China and Russia.

With the threat of a conflict against a powerful and advanced adversary looming, special operations forces are returning to their "roots," Christopher Maier, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, said.

The direction of special operations forces (SOF) is adapting to the largest challenges facing the US — a rapidly growing Chinese military and Russian state set on expansion by force.

Maier said during a conversation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank on Tuesday that SOF is "still doing counterterrorism, crisis response, those have been the persistent missions," but the priority is shifting towards "increasingly where we can support other elements, largely in a support role, for those strategic competition elements."

That means playing a big role in solving challenges facing the joint force, like more modern adaptations to using artificial intelligence, as well as the traditional functions of SOF, such as "being that sensor out there and providing the necessary input to decision makers to better understand a situation," noted Maier, who previously led the Pentagon's Defeat-ISIS Task Force overseeing the campaign across Iraq and Syria that relied heavily on American special operators.

Special operators are the US military's most highly trained troops, the go-to teams for small raids and secretive missions, but they lack the numbers and firepower to go up against larger conventional forces for long.

Much of the US' special operations presence in over 80 countries around the world is focused on working closely with foreign militaries, law enforcement, and embassies to keep a finger on the pulse. For the past 20 years, the US has relied on these forces for some the most unconventional and difficult missions, like teaming with partner forces to fight enemies or running shadowy helicopter assaults to kill or capture key leaders.

Maier said he views it as both a continuation of the counterterrorism and crisis response that SOF has been doing for decades and also a step back to its origins.

"We're going back to the proverbial roots of supporting the joint force with some of the hardest problems against peer adversaries," Maier said.

With the so-called War on Terror, SOF has spent over 20 years operating in counterterrorism and unconventional warfare roles, fighting quietly in a variety of environments across the world and maintaining relationships that provide the US with information on tactics of specific groups and deeper understandings of regional and security issues.

That role is now changing, albeit just as important. In a 2023 article for the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, David Ucko, a professor and expert on irregular warfare, argues that leaders in Washington need to examine how to best use SOF for newer challenges against Russia and China. That includes irregular warfare, which is "highly relevant" to strategic competition with China.

But, Ucko notes, special operators fill a particular role in military operations and shouldn't be given missions that other US agencies or groups can also do.

One of the deepest challenges these secretive forces face is the widening surveillance by spy satellites and recon drones.

SOF missions often have multiple objectives like foreign internal defense and unconventional warfare; special operators can, for example, help boost a US ally's defense tactics against a foreign aggressor, such as Taiwan and China.

Allied special forces played critical roles in World War II, shaped by the need for specialization in unconventional missions and innovative tactics, such as sabotage behind enemy lines and disrupting German supply lines. In North Africa, British Special Air Services and Commonwealth Long Range Desert Group commandos aided in disrupting Axis troops deployments and airpower.

During the Cold War, special operators played a role in deterring the Soviet Union's influence, maintaining presence in and relationships with Western Europe and other areas.

All of that historical context is informing SOF's priorities today, as the US faces similar challenges against China and Russia and their activities across the world, Maier said.

"The differences, I think, here are some of the fundamental changes in adversaries' ability to access technology," he added, and their ability to "use different types of techniques than maybe we saw in the Cold War."

Both China and Russia are actively engaged in bolstering their irregular warfare tactics, including reconnaissance, disinformation, electronic warfare, cyberspace and space efforts, and psychological warfare.

In its report on China's military growth over the course of 2023, the Pentagon noted that China is expanding its capabilities towards a vision of future conflict it calls "intelligentized warfare" focused on AI, data, and controlling information spaces.

Other elements, such as China's campaigns in Taiwan to influence domestic politics and opinions on unification, are also notable.

• Drones have seen a variety of functions in the Ukraine war on both sides.
• Reconnaissance drones gather information, while one-way attack systems strike tanks and troops.
• The drone war in Ukraine has implications for the US and other militaries looking at the future of war.

In the Ukraine war, drones are causing all sorts of mayhem in the air, on the ground, and at sea.

The drones being used in this conflict gather intel, provide targeting data, cripple ships and tanks, and even engage in drone-on-drone combat, and there is much the US and other militaries can learn from this fight about what future warfare will look like.

In this war, an odd combination of World War I-style combat and modern technological innovations, drones have dramatically changed how soldiers fight and survey the battlefield. These systems have presented challenges for tanks, armored vehicles, and troops and, in many ways, upended more traditional ways of war.

Officials have said the technology is often developing at such a rapid pace that it's difficult to keep up.

Drones are fighting in all domains of modern warfare

Russian and Ukrainian uncrewed aerial systems are engaging in one-way attacks on troops, vehicles, and equipment. The models have ranged from off-the-shelf civilian models with crudely attached explosives to military-grade loitering munitions, and these have been used to target anything that moves.

Combat footage from the war has captured operators flying their drones into open hatches of tanks, dropping bombs on unsuspecting soldiers, and planting land mines to surprise and stop the enemy.

Facing a much larger force, Ukraine has made use of drones as an asymmetrical warfare tactic. Ukraine is using ground robots, airborne drones, and naval drones to engage the Russians across nearly every major warfighting domain, except space, cyber, and undersea.

Naval drones have hit the Black Sea Fleet hard, and first-person-view, or FPV, drones complicate maneuvers all along the front lines.

And both sides have used longer-range drones as supplements for precision-guided munitions. Russia has consistently barraged Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure with drones and missiles, and Ukraine has struck Russian airfields and ammo depots, eliminating aircraft and munitions.

Ukraine has relied on drones to fill the gap amid artillery ammunition shortages caused by delays in Western military assistance and as an alternative to the Western weapons it has but has largely been unable to use against Russian positions inside Russia.

Drone operators are skilled combatants. They attack moving targets, fixed positions like trenches, and even hunt other operators.

Drones are gathering intelligence and shaping perceptions of war

Drones play a critical role in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and the generation of firing solutions. Expanded Russian recon drone activity amid air defense strains on the Ukrainian side have, for instance, given Russia better deep-strike capability. Ukraine, on the other hand, has been increasingly adapting its drones for air-to-air kills.

The view of the battlefield provided by drones isn't just for the soldiers fighting though.

The world has been watching the Ukraine war largely through drone footage, which can twist the perception of who's winning the fight. The often first-person-view videos are spread widely across Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, showing drones flying across scarred battlefields, then locating targets and attempting to destroy them. 

Drones are also capturing artillery battles, rocket strikes, ground battles, armored vehicle fights, and more.

Ukraine, in particular, has relied on sharing such footage to demonstrate its fighting capabilities, but the videos can be "cherry-picked" as an element of propaganda for both sides, defense experts previously told BI. Both sides are struggling with a range of challenges as the war takes its toll.

The constant presence of drones makes hiding and moving difficult. With so many drones operating, even individual soldiers can be spotted and targeted. Reconnaissance drones have also filmed other drones attacking targets, ensuring that there's footage if a strike is successful. That said, the battlefield isn't totally transparent, and surprises are still possible, as Ukraine demonstrated with its invasion of Kursk.

Drones are fighting other drones

Using drones to counter other drones has become prominent in the war. Ukraine, for example, is developing an interceptor designed to counter Russian Shahed-136 loitering munitions. Ukraine also uses FPV drones to target higher-end Russian recon drones.

The benefits of using a drone to eliminate another drone are clear: it can keep soldiers out of harm's way and save on the more expensive ammunition and missiles that would typically used to counter them. It's often a cheaper and more practical way to defeat incoming drone attacks.   

Lessons in drone warfare

The US military has been closely watching the drone war unfolding in Ukraine, taking notes on what it could mean for future wars. It's been watching as the combatants make adaptations, such as Russia and Ukraine welding cages onto their tanks to protect from drone attacks and the use of electronic warfare to jam drones' connections to their operators.

There's a lot of emerging tech in this war. Russia, for example, began employing wired drones connected to their operator by a fiber-optic cable to ensure the connection remains stable. Such an adaptation isn't necessarily game-changing, but it does indicate how both sides are constantly working to solve problems that pop up. 

Ukraine has said AI-enabled drones are being rapidly developed, tested, and deployed, and a unit commander said in September that drones won't need operators in as little as six months.

For those types of drones, soldiers will only need to launch them. From there, the drone "will decide on its own where to go and how to hit the target," the commander said. That development, once it becomes a reality, will be a game changer.

A Ukrainian non-profit outfit has actually been training AI on combat drone footage, roughly 2 million hours of video.

For a future war, the US will likely need to lean on uncrewed systems to complete operations its troops can't. The Pentagon's Replicator Initiative, announced last year, has goals of fielding swarms of drones for a variety of functions in a potential conflict. The US is working on air, ground, and sea drones.

It also has its Replicator II initiative with a counter-UAS focus, and the Pentagon recently released its counter-drone strategy aimed at preparing it for a future fight.

• US Abrams tanks have seen combat in Ukraine, where Soviet-style tanks are by far the most prevalent.
• Soviet-style tanks are smaller and lighter than their American counterparts.
• Both designs have their strengths and weaknesses.

Russian Soviet-style tanks and the American-made Abrams are both at war in Ukraine, as well as in Russia's Kursk. From the design and combat capability perspectives, the two tank styles are very different.

The Soviet-style T-series tanks, like the popular T-72 tanks that both the Russians and Ukrainians use, are smaller and lighter than the Abrams and are operated by fewer crewmembers with less protection. They are less heavily armored but have a lower profile than the heavy Abrams tanks now being used by Ukrainian forces. The Russian tanks feature notoriously dangerous autoloaders but are also easier to mass produce.

Ukraine operates a small force of M1A1 Abrams that were built for a war with the Soviets and defeated Soviet-made armor in the Gulf War. The Iraqi tanks were downgraded T-72 models, similar to how Ukrainian Abrams are export models without the top upgrades. Still, Ukraine's soldiers have praised the Abrams.

"It's better than T-72, T-62, and even Russian T-90," a Ukrainian tank commander recently told Business Insider. Ukraine has operated both Soviet-style and Western-style tanks, giving them a clear picture of the differences between the two.

Like other tanks and armored vehicles in Ukraine, the Abrams is facing challenges with the constant threat of drones, landmines, and anti-tank missiles, forcing it into an atypical role, but the tank is still valuable. Along with the Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, they have strengthened the combat capability of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade.

"It's an infinitely superior system," Robert Greenway, a Heritage Foundation expert who was assigned to the Abrams for a time in the Army, told Business Insider when the Abrams were arriving. "The A1 may be old in the sense that it's been in our inventory for quite some time, but it's far superior to anything that the Russians have."

Russian tanks were built with quantity and mobility in mind

Soviet-style tanks are smaller targets that can be harder to hit and easier to hide. That smaller size means less material demand, allowing Russia to turn out more of them. The US took a different approach.

"We were never going to produce as many tanks as the Russians," Greenway explained to BI last fall. "We were just going to produce one that was able to take out multiple Russian tanks and survive the process." Tanks like the T-72 weigh roughly 20 tons less than the Abrams and are visibly shorter in height and length.

The Soviets wanted more for less with greater mobility, while the US, thinking about the need to make a stand against a Soviet armor onslaught, was more focused on firepower and survivability.

"A lot of this comes down to the philosophies, the general overarching military philosophies of each side. You have the Soviets that viewed quantity as a quality of its own and the American side, which had a technological advantage across most domains," Jeffrey Edmonds, a former US Army tanker and national security expert, told BI.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russia has relied on its T-72s, T-80s, and T-90 tanks, all of which share certain design features.

That Soviet-style design — smaller, lighter, and lower to the ground — makes the tanks somewhat harder to engage in certain environments and more mobile, but the tanks lack the kind of thick armor that shields Abrams crews. In the Abrams, ammunition is stored behind the turret and separated from the crew by blast doors in protected racks to increase crew survivability. The Soviet-style tanks store ammo in the turret, leading to catastrophic ends if ammo is ignited by a hit on the vehicle.

"All design considerations were guided by general principles of mass and mobility," Edmonds said of Soviet tanks.

Abrams are bulkier and more powerful 

The US originally planned to send the Ukrainians newer M1A2 tanks but decided to expedite the process by opting for the older M1A1 instead. Kyiv only received 31 Abrams, which are now in service with the 47th Mechanized Brigade. 

Although the M1A1 is older, it's still a capable asset.

The Abrams was built specifically to counter Soviet-style tanks in a land war in Europe, boasting stronger armor to take more hits and prioritize crew survivability. During the Gulf War, US Army assessments noted multiple examples where enemy fire bounced off of the tanks, which were able to survive multiple hits and continue dealing damage.

The lethality of the Abrams stems in part from its depleted-uranium penetrator rounds, which are highly effective at piercing enemy armor because the rod sharpens on impact and the metal fragments may also ignite, potentially leading to a catastrophic kill.  Some Russian tanks fire this ammunition, but most don't.

And its powerful gas-turbine engine, which is sometimes compared to a jet engine, can get the 60-ton A1 up to 45 miles an hour, offering the heavy tank sufficient agility.

Abrams, however, are complicated tanks to maintain. When Ukraine received its Abrams, experts said keeping a consistent supply chain of spare parts and materials to repair damaged A1s would be difficult, but US officials have said they've sent "a lot more spare parts" to keep the line going.

The limits of the tank

In Ukraine, both the Soviet-style and American-made tanks are struggling. Drones, a relatively new and now persistent threat, as well as anti-tank weapons and landmines, have proved particularly problematic.

Both Ukraine and Russia have been building increasingly complex cages on their tanks to defend against drones. These have hurt Soviet-designed tanks, eliminating their low profile, but tank battles are less common, potentially making that less of an issue.

The Abrams has played less of a role, and instead, US-provided Bradley infantry fighting vehicles are a significant asset. The US has sent over 300 Bradleys to Kyiv since early 2023.

Bradleys have been seen transporting troops and materials around the front lines and even duking it out with Russian T-90s, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has hailed as the best tank in the world. 

Ryan Pickrell contributed to this reporting.

• Militaries like the US, China, and Russia are building robot dogs to employ in security and combat operations.
• Some of these remote-controlled canines feature guns, rocket launchers, and flamethrowers
• These robotic dogs can fill a variety of jobs, from scouting to counter-drone roles.

Militaries, law enforcement, and more around the world are increasingly turning to robot dogs — which, if we're being honest, look like something straight out of a science-fiction nightmare — for a variety of missions ranging from security patrol to combat.

Robot dogs first really came on the scene in the early 2000s with Boston Dynamics' "BigDog" design. They are becoming increasingly prolific with improved designs, and they have been used in both military and security activities. In November, for instance, it was reported that robot dogs had been added to President-elect Donald Trump's security detail and were on patrol at his home in Mar-a-Lago.

Some of the remote-controlled canines are equipped with sensor systems, while others have been equipped with rifles and other weapons. One Ohio company made one with a flamethrower.

Some of these designs not only look eerily similar to real dogs but also act like them, which can be unsettling. Their emergence comes as uncrewed systems take on greater roles, from the civilian sector to the armed forces, and amid growing competition in this emerging technology space prompted by the great realization of what they could do in future wars.

Militaries have been incorporating robot dogs into operations for a few years now. They've performed scouting and security missions and explosive ordnance disposal, relying on sensing systems and advanced surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

By joining manned formations, the quadrupedal unmanned systems can assist their human companions and complete functions that may be too dangerous or impossible for them. But that doesn't mean some of these military robot dogs aren't a little disconcerting. It's kind of weird that they can jump, roll, and play like dogs.

In the US

Across the US military, the services are experimenting with robot dogs. The Marine Corps has tested its systems with remote assault rifles and anti-armor rocket launchers. In some cases, these robots are designed specifically for counter-drone operations — in other words, putting a drone up against another drone.

The Army has also conducted urban assault drills alongside robot dogs. In March, it deployed one of the systems in a training environment as part of Project Convergence, a series of exercises and experiments focused on future war-fighting, at Fort Irwin in California. The quadruped was there to "provide enhanced situational awareness and support for frontline soldiers, acting as their eyes and ears," the Army said.

Then, in August, the Army and its industry partners tested one armed with a service rifle as part of Fort Drum's "Operation Hard Kill," which tests counter-drone systems they're working on. The dog is remotely controlled, meaning an operator can remain a safe distance away from it while testing it.

The rifle was also enhanced with artificial intelligence, suggesting automated targeting. The Marine Corps, too, has been experimenting with AI-enabled weapons on its robot dogs.

US defense officials have long considered the development of weaponized robot dogs experimental, exploring what might be possible in future conflicts.

Efforts to adopt robot dogs really ramped up in 2020 when the Air Force began integrating robot dogs into an exercise securing an airfield against a simulated attack. Other Air Force efforts have seen robot dogs helping airmen respond to nuclear and chemical threats.

And at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, for example, autonomous canines have been assisting with base security, a first for the US military.

One video showed these drones sitting and rolling around like they were actual dogs. One of the biggest players in this space is Ghost Robotics, which develops Q-UGVs, quadrupedal unmanned ground vehicles, for the US military. Ghost Robotics describes one of its Q-UGVs, Vision 60, as "a mid-sized high-endurance, agile, and durable all-weather drone for use in a broad range of unstructured urban and natural environments for defense, homeland, and enterprise applications.

In China

The US isn't alone in its robot dog research endeavors; rivals are also interested in these unusual capabilities. China's advancements with robot dogs have often mirrored US efforts and raised some concerns in Washington.

Earlier this year, Chinese state-run media showed off one of Beijing's developments in this space — a robot dog running around a testing range and shooting an automatic rifle.

Footage of the system prompted US lawmakers to raise concerns with the Pentagon on "the threat of rifle-toting robot dogs used by China."

China has also shown off its robot dogs at military exercises, including a joint one with Cambodia and other militaries last year. And at a defense trade show, a Chinese defense company, Kestrel Defense, shared footage of one of the drone systems carrying guns and smoke grenades.

In Russia

Russia, too, has been working on integrating robot dogs into its military. Its most prominent exhibition came in 2022 during a Russian army trade show, when a robot dog wrapped in an odd black coverall and carrying an anti-tank weapon walked around the exhibit.

Video footage showed the dog even acting like a real dog — stomping and spinning around as if excited and lying down. Imagine something like that on the battlefield.

At the time of the reveal, observers said that the dog looked to be a commercially available one from Chinese company Unitree, or at least included some similar parts and functions. The Russian company responsible for the system, Machine Intellect, said it's useful for transporting supplies, attacking targets, and scouting.

In actual combat

In the Ukraine war, robot dogs have seen use on the battlefield, the first known combat deployment of these machines. Built by British company Robot Alliance, the systems aren't autonomous, instead being operated by remote control. They are capable of doing many of the things other drones in Ukraine have done, including reconnaissance and attacking unsuspecting troops.

The dogs have also been useful for scouting out the insides of buildings and trenches, particularly smaller areas where operators have trouble flying an aerial drone.

"Such a dog should be in every unit," Kurt, a commander in the 28th Mechanized Brigade, said, per a post from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

• China is making heavy investments in its stockpile of a missile described as a "carrier killer" and called the "Guam Express."
• The DF-26 is a versatile missile with a range capable of threatening US forces across the Western Pacific.
• The US has indicated a need to harden air bases and disperse its forces to defend against a Chinese missile strike.

China's been heavily investing in its missile stockpiles, including one nicknamed the "Guam Express" but also described as a "carrier killer" or "ship killer."

The versatile DF-26 boasts the range and numbers to hit a variety of targets, from island outposts to American aircraft carriers and warships.

Last fall, the US Department of Defense released its annual report on China's military growth and developments. It recorded massive growth in the People's Liberation Army's Rocket Force, the Chinese military's missile service, particularly its missile stockpiles.

According to the report, China increased the number of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the DF-26 from 300 in 2021 to 500 in 2022 and also increased the number of launchers for such missiles.

The Pentagon said that "the multi-role DF-26 is designed to rapidly swap conventional and nuclear warheads and is capable of conducting precision land-attack and anti-ship strikes in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the SCS [South China Sea] from mainland China," pointing to the various ways China could employ the missile in a conflict.

Such a capability could be a major problem for US forces.

What is the DF-26?

China's DF-26 IRBM is a two-stage missile capable of reaching targets out to roughly 4,000 km. The weapon entered service in 2016 after being officially unveiled during China's 2015 parade commemorating the end of World War II. It is China's first conventional ballistic missile capable of striking Guam.

It's a solid-fueled missile, meaning China can launch the DF-26 with little notice. The missile's most likely target has earned it the nickname "Guam Express."

The Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project suspects China conducted its first operational DF-27 test in early 2017 in the Bohai Sea.

The Chinese military tested four DF-26s in Inner Mongolia, where it regularly conducts missile tests, in July 2017 in a simulated strike against a US THAAD missile defense battery like the US has in South Korea and Guam.

And then in August 2020, China tested the missile in an anti-ship role. The US military said it tested it against a moving target. China has also done night exercises involving relocating the missile batteries in a simulated conflict scenario.

Last month, satellite imagery analysis from Chris Biggers, a GEOINT consultant with Janes, showed an expansion of DF-26 launchers in Beijing. "It remains unclear if new DF-26 launchers will be filling out existing brigades to full strength or if they could represent additional DF-21 replacements," he said on X.

What makes the DF-26 so dangerous?

"It's a potent threat," J. Michael Dahm, a senior resident fellow for Aerospace and China Studies at the Mitchell Institute, told Business Insider, adding, "It is an increase in the numbers of missiles that have this greater range." But, Dahm noted, the DF-26s are also replacing many older models of missiles that have the same mission.

Big concerns with the DF-26 is which US targets it can strike and the threat to American warships, including high-profile assets like aircraft carriers. China can also swap the payload from conventional to nuclear warheads.

After the Department of Defense released updated numbers for the DF-26 last fall, Tom Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander who's now an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, said the increase gives China the ability to pursue more than just top targets.

The notable increase in the size of the stockpile effectively makes the DF-26s not just "carrier killers" but, more broadly, "ship killers." He said on X in fall 2023 that "if each DF-26 launcher had just one reload, we could be facing 400+ missiles. Well, here we are…"

And there's evidence China has been practicing for such an engagement. In November 2021, satellite images showed apparent full-scale outlines of US Navy aircraft carriers in the Ruoqiang area of Xinjiang's Taklamakan desert in northwestern China. Satellite images have also spotted mock-ups of American destroyers and big-deck amphibious assault ships.

Naval power is a cornerstone of American military might, but the DF-26 threatens that, among various other targets.

How can the US counter the DF-26 threat?

US lawmakers have raised concerns with the Air Force and Navy secretaries about the vulnerability of American bases in the Pacific to Chinese missile barrages, and officials have indicated a need to significantly bolster American air defenses to counter a potential Chinese missile attack.

Experts have emphasized a need to harden air bases to survive such an attack, which could be unlike anything seen previously, and disperse forces to make it difficult to crush US airpower in a single blow. Chinese military doctrine emphasizes surprise, and some experts have said a strike could include ballistic and cruise missiles, possibly drones, in waves to overwhelm air defenses.

There's no guarantee China uses its DF-26s. Maybe it goes for a range of targets, or maybe it goes after a few specific targets. Maybe it holds them in reserve rather than using them in the opening salvos. There's a lot of unknowns.

"The threat from the PLA's large and growing arsenal of long-range precision strike weapons against air bases is serious, but not unsurmountable," Dahm wrote in a Mitchell Institute paper this past July. "There are practical, physical limits on the number of sophisticated weapons an adversary like the PLA may launch against dozens of established and dispersed air bases at any one time."

That said, growing missile stockpiles and increases in the number of launchers give the Chinese military greater flexibility, offering more options in a conflict.