Two days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a change in the country's policy for employing nuclear weapons in conflict. Then, on Thursday, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new type of ballistic missile capable of one day delivering multiple nuclear warheads to distant targets with little warning.
Putin says his ballistic missile attack on Ukraine is a warning to the West.
These events are just part of what has been a week of escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. In recent days, Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russian territory for the first time. This followed approval by President Joe Biden for Ukraine to use US-provided longer-range missiles against Russian targets. Previously, Ukraine was only permitted to use them on its own territory.
A Russian ICBM on display during a military parade in Moscow.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Vladimir Putin said Russia struck Ukraine with a new ballistic missile on Thursday.
His remarks come after Kyiv said Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the country.
The Pentagon said the weapon was an "experimental" intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow struck Ukraine with a new missile on Thursday after Kyiv said it had been hit by an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Putin said that his military fired a medium-range ballistic missile with a "non-nuclear hypersonic warhead" at Ukraine. He characterized the strike as a "test" and said that there is no way to counter this weapon, a claim he often makes with new systems.
He said that the attack with the new weapon, which he identified as the "Oreshnik," was executed in response to Ukraine's use of American and British missiles in strikes on Russian soil earlier in the week.
"The combat testing of the Oreshnik missile system is being conducted by us in response to NATO's aggressive actions against Russia," Putin said.
The Ukrainian military said earlier on Thursday that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the country. Had that been the case, it would have marked the first time an ICBM had ever been used in combat.
A still from a video, shared by the Ukrainian military, of ATACMS in use by Ukraine.
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Screengrab via X
The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia launched the ICBM at the centrally located city of Dnipro from its southeastern Astrakhan region, several hundred miles away. Kyiv's Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security said it's the "first time in history" that this weapon was fired in a war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the missile that struck Dnipro as "new," explaining that its speed and altitude matched those of an ICBM. He said the Kremlin is using Ukraine as "a testing ground."
An ICBM is a ballistic missile that is generally considered to have a range of over 3,400 miles. It is fired into space from silos or road-mobile transporter erector launchers. Some carry multiple independent re-entry vehicles with separate warheads for greater devastation. The weapon is primarily strategic and intended for the delivery of a nuclear payload.
Some Western officials pushed back on the claims, asserting that Russia had launched a ballistic missile but not an ICBM.
A Pentagon spokesperson told reporters later on Thursday that Russia had launched an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile based on the RS-26 design. That older missile is an ICBM in name but an IRBM in application. Initial speculation was that Ukraine had been hit by an RS-26.
Firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine on November 21.
Press Service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Dnipropetrovsk Region / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
An IRBM has lower range parameters than an ICBM, somewhere between 1,800 and 3,400 miles.
Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, said the US was notified briefly before the launch through nuclear risk reduction channels. She said that the IRBM is a "new type of lethal capability that was deployed on the battlefield" and called it a "concern" to the US.
Video footage said to be from the Dnipro attack shows multiple objects impacting the ground, though there do not appear to be any visible explosions. Some expert observers have said the warheads may have been inert, which would be consistent with testing.
From this video of last night’s Russian it seems HIGHLY LIKELY that Russia did in fact use an RS-26 ICBM without a nuclear payload to strike Dnipro.
The video shows what appear to be MIRV impacts that are too simultaneous to be multiple independent ballistic missiles. pic.twitter.com/DIwGVLQPlo
As Ukraine said that it had been hit by an ICBM, Western officials told multiple media outlets that Russia had launched a ballistic missile but not an ICBM. Some said it was likely a shorter-range IRBM instead.
Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, said in a social media thread amid the confusion that the "intercontinental" claims should be approached with skepticism and caution.
"Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost," he said. "But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal."
As for what that signal might be, Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, said that the fact that the missile appeared to carry a MIRVed payload "is much more significant for signaling purposes and is the reason Russia opted for it. This payload is exclusively associated with nuclear-capable missiles."
Those assessments were made prior to Putin's announcement about the weapons used.
Emergency workers in Dnipro after the Russian missile strike.
Press Service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Dnipropetrovsk Region / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
Thursday's missile attack marks a significant moment in the conflict, which just passed the 1,000-day mark and came amid a series of significant developments in the war.
The US last weekend loosened restrictions on Ukraine's use of longer-range Western missiles to strike targets inside Russia, and Kyiv has since used American-made ballistic missiles and British-made cruise missiles to strike across the border for the first time.
Putin said these attacks prompted Thursday's strike. Meanwhile, the Russian leader this week approved an update to the country's nuclear doctrine. The move seemed to directly respond to the Western missile policy reversal.
Update: November 21, 2024 — This article has been updated with new information provided by Russian leadership and the Pentagon.
'Today, our insane neighbor has once again revealed its true nature—its disdain for dignity, freedom, and human life itself. And, most of all, its fear.'
