• US home sales remained low due to high mortgage rates and home prices in 2024.
• Southeast cities like Charlotte and Knoxville saw high demand despite affordability issues.
• Analysts predict a potential rise in home sales in 2025, driven by lower mortgage rates.

Another tough year in the US housing market was anything but boring for those in popular cities.

Home sales were soft for a third straight year, the National Association of Realtors recently noted. Mortgage rates and home prices are down from peak levels, but affordability remains a major issue and has sidelined millions of would-be buyers, who are instead renting.

But sellers in hot markets still won big as buyers battled for scarce spots in coveted cities.

10 places movers flocked to in 2024

To determine this year's most popular US real-estate markets, Business Insider compiled and analyzed data from six sources about moving patterns, rents, rental market competitiveness, search interest from homebuyers, and home price growth history and projections.

Although there were some mixed signals, there were also some clear conclusions about which regions, states, and cities drew the most interest from buyers and renters.

A brief look at migration data from Atlas Van Lines may yield more questions than answers. The moving firm found that the places with the most inbound movers relative to those leaving were Arkansas; Rhode Island; North Carolina; Washington, DC; and Idaho. Also on the list of states with inbound rates of at least 55% are Maine, Connecticut, Washington, Alaska, Alabama, and New Mexico, which essentially covers all four corners of the US.

But while that moving data gives a solid big-picture overview, it doesn't provide insight into which individual markets were most popular. That was instead determined by other measures of demand, like how much prices for homes and apartments rose, or how tough they were to land.

This process was more of an art than a science, but the 10 cities that best fit those criteria within states with substantial positive inflows of movers were all east of the Mississippi River. Even more notable is that the Southeast region was home to eight of those 10 popular markets, which were spread across just three states: North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

North Carolina was tied for second in the nation in mover inbound rate at 63%, due in part to four especially hot markets. Winston-Salem and nearby Greensboro saw their rents rise 6.7% and 5.3% this year, respectively, giving their rental market competitiveness scores a big boost. Meanwhile, two other major cities in the Tar Heel State — Charlotte and Durham — saw rents decline but were among the 20 most searched markets by homebuyers.

Those four North Carolina cities are set for high-single-digit or low-double-digit home price growth next year, per Realtor.com, and the NAR highlighted Charlotte as a top spot in 2025.

Neighboring Tennessee also had one of the nation's highest inbound rates at 62%. Knoxville was one of the more competitive smaller markets despite rent growth of just 1.5%, and it ranked 10th in the nation in homebuyers' searches. It's also on the NAR's list of standout markets next year. Meanwhile, Memphis saw 22.7% rent growth and is in line for 10.5% home price growth.

Kentucky's inbound rate of 56% was more modest. However, it had Lexington with 9.9% rent growth, a lofty rental market competitiveness score, and the eighth spot in buyers' searches, as well as Louisville, which Rent Cafe said was the top trending rental market of 2024.

Jonathan Miller, the cofounder of the real-estate firm Miller Samuel, told Business Insider that the Southeast market is popular because it's relatively warm and has ample housing inventory.

"It's a combination of the weather and housing affordability," Miller said in a recent interview.

The nation's capital represented the bordering Mid-Atlantic with a 63% mover inbound rate and a fifth-place ranking in homebuyers' searches, pushing prices up 10.2%. Washington, DC, was also one of the 30 most competitive rental markets, though supply kept price growth in check.

Rounding out the list was New Haven, Connecticut, which was arguably the hottest market. It was the fourth most competitive rental market this year, and its rent growth was easily the highest in the US in December at 35.7%. It also had 18.3% home price growth in November and is set for another 9.7% next year due to its Yale University ties and proximity to New York City.

What to expect in 2025

The US housing market has slowly thawed after it froze over as mortgage rates spiked. Some real-estate analysts expect sales to heat up in 2025, though others are more skeptical.

Optimists are calling for the biggest jump since the pandemic boom. The National Association of Realtors sees home sales rising 7% to 12% in 2025, including an 11% jump for new units, while eXp Realty's CEO is calling for 10% growth caused by sliding mortgage rates and rising supply.

But Realtor.com's sales forecast is more tempered at 1.5%, as is Miller's call for a 3% increase. The veteran real-estate analyst said mortgage rates will likely stay above 6%, weighing on demand, plus supply is also limited. Even still, he's expecting a 4% to 5% jump in home prices.

"If mortgage rates unexpectedly fall below 6%, we can have a housing boom," Miller said. "It just doesn't appear that that's in the cards, but there's a lot of upside potential in transaction volume, despite higher mortgage rates."

Miller said that against that backdrop, buyers will continue to seek out affordable markets, which are often correlated with abundant inventory. That's why the Sun Belt region was so hot in 2024.

This year's most popular markets will likely be among the winners next year, in Miller's view. He didn't predict the next boom town but said surges into Texas and Florida have run their course. Those states were red-hot in the early 2020s, though each had level moving flows this year.

"It's not that those markets are less attractive," Miller said. "There's less intensity from inbound migration as millions of new residents get situated. The rate of growth is no longer surging."

However, it appears as if the exodus from large states with highly populated cities isn't over, as three of the five states with the most outbound movers were California, Illinois, and New York. Each of those states has relatively high taxes, and Miller has a hunch that some movers might try to preemptively move before the potential expiration of state and local tax deductions slated for the end of 2025.

• The US housing market might be much more friendly to homebuyers in 2025.
• Home sales should rise significantly as inventory grows and prices inch higher.
• Here are 10 real-estate markets that could see a surge of activity next year.

Homebuyers should stock up on champagne — and not just for New Year's Eve.

Next year may present long-awaited opportunities for aspiring property owners to trade their apartments for homes, or for families to get the upgrades they've been pining for. There's a growing sense among real-estate analysts that an extended home sales contraction will snap in 2025 as housing inventory rises and mortgage rates fall.

"Homebuyers will have more success next year," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in a statement about the firm's 2025 outlook. "The worst of the affordability challenges are over as more inventory, stable mortgage rates, and continued job and income growth pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership."

Housing market transactions will soar 7% to 12% in the year ahead to 4.5 million units before an even larger 10% to 15% jump in 2026, according to the NAR. New home sales are expected to climb 11% next year and 8% the year after.

Earlier this month, real-estate brokerage titan eXp Realty's CEO told Business Insider that sales could advance 10% in 2025, though Realtor.com called for a comparatively modest 1.5% gain.

Home sales have tanked in the years after the post-pandemic boom, so those upbeat calls may sound like wishful thinking, especially coming from realtor trade associations and brokerages.

But a home sales boom seems plausible, based on what should be healthy supply and demand.

Property supply has risen significantly in recent months from startlingly low levels, and housing starts are also in a long-term uptrend following a post-housing-bubble construction bust.

That inventory uptick will keep property price growth in check at only 2% in each of the next two years, the NAR predicted, which would translate to a median existing-home price of $410,700. And buyers may also move off the sidelines as mortgage rates drift toward 6% from around 7%, the firm added.

"If rates stabilize around 6%, about 6.2 million households can once again be able to afford median-priced homes, compared to the current constraints with rates near 7%," the NAR noted.

Slower home-price growth and lower mortgage rates will go a long way toward easing the affordability crisis that has plagued the US since the pandemic. Just over a year ago, buyers suffered through the least affordable quarter since 1985. That may soon be a distant memory.

10 hot real-estate markets

Home sales should surge across the US next year, especially in a healthy economy with solid job gains. However, researchers at the NAR expect certain cities to be far busier than others.

Buyers will flock to 10 top housing markets in 2025 due to a combination of rising home supply, manageable mortgage rates, and healthy local economies, the firm said. Healthy demand should underpin further home-price appreciation for owners in those metropolitan areas.

These soon-to-be-hot markets share several similarities, including strong property price growth since the pandemic, a sizable supply of starter homes, positive net migration, and an outsized share of out-of-state movers who are buying homes. Other factors were a market's job growth, mortgage rates, how long most homeowners had been there, and the share of millennial renters who could buy. The NAR outlined its full methodology for this exercise in a press release.

Below are the 10 real-estate markets that the NAR is bullish on next year, along with select economic and demographic considerations.

Along with each metro area is its home price growth in the last five years, starter homes as a share of total inventory, the share of homeowners who've been in place for more than 16 years and therefore may be ready to sell, net migration ratio, the share of out-of-state movers purchasing homes, job growth since late 2019, and commentary from the NAR.

• YouTube TV will cost close to $83 a month after a just-announced price hike.
• That's a far cry from the $35 a month it was when it launched in 2017.
• However, YouTube TV is arguably still attractive relative to some other pay-TV offerings.

The price of YouTube TV is going up again — and cord-cutters around the internet are up in arms.

Google announced Thursday that the cost of its popular pay-TV service is now $82.99 a month for new users, up from $72.99. Existing users will see the price hike start on January 13, so some might not pay more until February.

The last time the service raised prices was in March 2023.

YouTube TV is now roughly in line with a typical pay-TV bundle and will cost exactly as much as rival service Hulu + Live TV, which includes ad-supported versions of Hulu, Disney+, and ESPN+.

YouTube TV's price has grown dramatically in the nearly eight years since it launched, though that's largely because the service was underpriced at first relative to its offering.

Before this hike, YouTube TV was generally cheaper than many rival streaming TV packages from competitors such as Hulu + Live TV, Fubo TV, Spectrum, and DirecTV. (Many pay-TV services have a variety of plans, so it can be difficult to truly compare apples to apples, however.)

YouTube TV also has a slick interface that appeals to many cord-cutters.

These factors helped YouTube TV grow to 8 million customers (as of earlier this year) and far outpace its digital rivals.

Although YouTube TV's price growth has been eye-popping, the price of pay-TV services — from cable to satellite to streamers — has generally outpaced inflation, per data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That includes the largest inflation surge in decades.

As the cable bundle became more expensive, millions of households cut the cord. TV networks make less money when pay-TV subscriptions fall, so to keep investors happy, they've increased the amount they charge TV providers, who then pass those costs on to customers.

In other words, when fewer people pay for TV, the remaining subscribers pay more. That has created a flywheel effect, with customers fleeing the bundle even faster in favor of streaming services, social media, or other forms of entertainment.

When asked for comment, a YouTube TV spokesperson issued a statement that acknowledged this dynamic: "To keep up with the rising cost of content and the investments we make in the quality of our service, we are increasing our Base Plan price for YouTube TV from $72.99/month to $82.99/month."

Google may also have raised YouTube TV prices to help cover its investment in NFL Sunday Ticket. The tech giant won the right to distribute the premium out-of-market package starting in 2023 and priced it at $379 per season for YouTube TV customers and $479 for others. Even at those prices, media analysts at Morgan Stanley don't think the service is profitable.

Still, despite the price increase, YouTube TV can often be one of the better deals in town for those who want a large bundle of channels. And it has another thing going for it: It's easy to cancel and resubscribe to.

"We give all members the flexibility to cancel their membership at any time," the YouTube TV spokesperson said in their statement.

• Despite what some analysts predicted, the sky hasn't fallen at Warner Bros. Discovery without the NBA.
• The company's new deal with the cable giant Comcast is better than some anticipated.
• Those at WBD are thrilled to have saved money on NBA rights while avoiding a carriage-fee disaster.

It looks like Warner Bros. Discovery didn't "have to have the NBA" after all.

A year and a half after WBD's CEO, David Zaslav, gave that quote, the NBA's broadcast partner of four decades was outbid by Disney's ESPN, Comcast's NBC, and Amazon for the league's next TV deal, valued at $76 billion over 11 years.

Zaslav was widely chastised for allowing NBA rights to slip through his fingers after appearing indifferent about their value at a time when live sports seemed like it could be the cable bundle's only hope. Some media analysts said WBD underestimated NBC's bid and that the value of its TV networks would take a major hit without the NBA.

But the worst didn't happen. The media conglomerate has managed to secure higher rates for most of its TV networks from Charter and Comcast, the two largest cable providers in the US, people familiar with the terms of the deals told Business Insider.

The Comcast deal is particularly notable, as some in the industry expected the cable giant to drive a hard bargain. Comcast and WBD surprised the industry on Monday when they announced they'd reached a carriage-renewal deal. The financial terms weren't disclosed, but people familiar with them told BI that Comcast's affiliate fees for TNT would remain flat and that it would pay slightly more for WBD's other networks. In return, Comcast customers in the US, the UK, and Ireland can get Max for free.

This new deal, especially TNT's fees remaining flat without the NBA, looks like a win for Zaslav that certainly wasn't guaranteed just a few months ago.

No NBA, no problem?

Before the Charter and Comcast deals were announced, the general feeling in the media world was that pay-TV providers could play hardball and demand lower affiliate fees for WBD's networks, especially an NBA-less TNT. Shrinking affiliate fees and weaker ad revenue from lower ratings could be disastrous for debt-riddled WBD.

Instead, in mid-September, WBD struck a deal with the cable giant Charter in which it secured a flat rate for TNT and higher rates for other channels like CNN, HGTV, and Discovery. However, doing so took a key concession: giving away its Max streaming service.

The Charter deal was heralded as a success, with Zaslav a "clear winner" in the eyes of the veteran media analyst Rich Greenfield of LightShed. Greenfield had said that if WBD could fend off a major decline in affiliate fees in its next deals, then "investor fears are misplaced."

Still, another major test was ahead: WBD's negotiations with Comcast. Some observers thought WBD got a sweetheart deal from Charter since the cable legend John Malone was on the board of both companies, but they expected Comcast would take no prisoners. LightShed's Brandon Ross predicted that Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would be aggressive in negotiations.

The terms WBD and Comcast agreed to are remarkably similar to WBD's deal with Charter, and each came together more than a year before key deadlines. "Most favored nation" clauses mean cable providers can get similar terms as their competitors, but some analysts thought Comcast would get a better deal that Charter could match in retrospect.

Company insiders seemed pleased with the deals, though the WBD side seemed especially thrilled. Some people within the company believed they'd been vindicated after taking heat for losing the NBA.

Those with knowledge of WBD's thinking said the company could actually be better off without the NBA now that it avoided carriage-fee cuts. Instead of paying up for the NBA, whose ratings are down so far this season, the company can invest in other sports or pay down debt.

Unlike Amazon or Comcast, which have other businesses that can help subsidize their NBA rights, WBD would have needed its NBA investment to pay for itself — mainly through carriage fees, advertising revenue, and subscriptions to Max, which airs the NBA on TNT. And the company wasn't sure that would be possible if it paid significantly more money for fewer games.

So while the WBD hoped to keep the NBA at the right price, it was prepared to walk away — hence Zaslav's surprisingly blunt quote. By opting for plan B, WBD sent the message that its priority was keeping costs in check and paying down debt.

WBD shares are up by 58% since mid-September, suggesting that the market is rewarding the company for passing on the NBA — even though doing so was controversial.

• The NBA Cup, formerly known as the In-Season Tournament, begins knockout-stage play on Tuesday.
• NBA ratings are down by 17% so far this season, but NBA Cup games have outperformed the trend.
• League executives say they aren't sweating lower ratings and are excited about the NBA Cup.

The NBA is battling an early-season ratings slump, but league executives told Business Insider they're confident the slide will be short-lived, as the knockout round of its second in-season tournament tips off on Tuesday night.

NBA ratings were down from last year by 17% for nationally televised games and by 8% for local games this season through December 6, according to Nielsen. A few months ago, the NBA locked up an 11-year, $76 billion TV contract with Disney's ESPN, Comcast's NBC, and Amazon.

Cord-cutting contributed to those declines, as pay-TV subscriptions fell by nearly 7% in the first half of 2024.

The NBA execs who spoke with BI said that besides cord-cutting, factors behind the viewership hit included a crowded sports calendar, the US elections, and injuries to All-Star-caliber players.

"We have had just some unfortunate luck early season," said Evan Wasch, the NBA's executive vice president of basketball strategy and analytics.

Despite early-season ratings declines, there's been a bright spot: Fans seem especially interested in the NBA Cup. Viewership for group-play games in that in-season tournament was 7% higher on national TV and 9% higher in local markets versus non-Cup games this season, though it's still off by 10% compared with last year's tournament matches.

"We were a little bit swimming upstream with some of those early-season challenges," Wasch said. "But we're definitely seeing some strength, especially when we have top matchups on — and certainly with the NBA Cup games."

The Cup runneth over

The NBA last year instituted an In-Season Tournament, now called the NBA Cup, to drum up interest early in the season, when it competes with the NFL and college football.

All 30 NBA teams compete in group-play games, which count toward regular-season records and tournament rankings. Then comes a single-elimination knockout round in Las Vegas.

While there was some confusion about the tournament in its first year, players and fans now appear to know what's going on.

"That education piece was still our upside opportunity," said Jenny Whitlock, the NBA's head of global fan marketing.

Analysts have said in the past two years that competition is more intense than usual in NBA Cup games — an encouraging sign for the league in a slower time of the season.

"The thing that resonated most with fans was the level of intensity and player buy-in in the first year, because that was a big unknown," Wasch said.

Las Vegas may get more than the NBA Cup

Among the contenders for this year's NBA Cup are veteran teams and up-and-comers, plus a mix of major markets like New York and Atlanta and smaller ones like Orlando and Milwaukee.

League executives hope that young stars will break out during the knockout round — like Tyrese Haliburton did for the Indiana Pacers last year — as household names like LeBron James age.

"We want to make sure that people come into these competitions knowing what's at stake, who's the standout, who are the names that they should know about," Whitlock said.

The NBA hopes that knockout-round games will draw stronger viewership than group-play games, as they did last year. But ratings may partly depend on whether popular big-market teams advance.

As for what's next for the NBA, its commissioner has hinted at expanding the league to 32 teams. Many analysts believe the leading cities for the next two NBA franchises are Seattle and Las Vegas, which is already home to the NBA Cup's knockout round.

Las Vegas has boomed in popularity as sports betting has become legal across the US. Sin City has added three — soon to be four — major sports teams since 2017, and it's the center of the NBA world this week. In the coming years, it could become a more permanent home for the league.

• Housing market activity should rebound in the year ahead as mortgage rates fall.
• Buyers have been waiting for more affordable rates, as have sellers.
• Here are 16 cities set for double-digit property price growth, as forecasted by Realtor.com.

Homeowners and buyers may finally start making more deals in 2025, which could lift prices in some markets to unprecedented heights.

A years-long slump in home sales could end soon as mortgage rates fall below 6% and home inventory grows, Leo Pareja, the CEO of real-estate brokerage giant eXp Realty, said in a recent interview.

Pareja, who described his year-ahead housing market outlook as "cautiously optimistic," thinks home sales will rise 10% in 2025. That's far above Realtor.com's recent call for 1.5% sales growth due to a slight slide in mortgage rates.

If more homes come on the market and housing demand also rises, sales would certainly follow suit, though it's less clear what would happen to home prices. Realtor.com is predicting nationwide home prices climb to 3.7% — in line with the rate they've risen since 2012.

Realtor.com forecasted price and sales growth for the 100 largest US real-estate markets. Florida is home to nine of the 25 places expected to see the most price appreciation in 2025.

Below are the 16 metropolitan areas that are set for double-digit home price growth next year, based on Realtor.com's projections. The Sunshine State dominates the list with five names and a near miss with Jacksonville, which is seen rising 9.8%. Sales growth estimates are also listed.

• Realtor.com forecasts that home prices will rise slightly in 2025.
• Researchers expect mortgage rates to come down next year but still remain above 6%.
• There's a silver lining: Increased inventory and new construction may offer buyers some relief.

The housing market in 2024 hasn't been kind to those looking for a home: The age of the typical first-time homebuyer increased by three years, mortgage rates stayed firmly above 6%, and some people felt it would be more affordable to keep renting than to buy.

Although Realtor.com's housing forecast predicts some of the same for 2025, there are a few encouraging signs.

Home affordability has improved modestly after reaching the lowest level in decades last year, and transactions have picked up after an eerily quiet 2023.

Danielle Hale, the chief economist at the real-estate listings and data site, said a "Trump bump" could affect the housing market.

"For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors," Hale said in the forecast. "The new administration's policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter."

Most consumers care about what will happen to home prices and mortgage rates, which directly affect their ability to buy a house.

With that in mind, here are five predictions for the housing market in 2025 from Realtor.com.

1. Home prices will drift higher

The median home sale price nationwide is up 32% since 2019, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. However, it was $420,400 in the third quarter of 2024, down a bit from $435,400 a year earlier.

Buyers are holding out for more relief, but it might not come in 2025.

Barring a serious shock, home prices should continue to climb modestly. Realtor.com predicts that home sale prices will increase by 3.7% in 2025, which would be about a $15,000 jump.

"Prices are going to keep rising because we're not going to have a recession," Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, said in an interview with Business Insider. "If you look at the times that home prices fall, it's typically only when there's a recession, and only when people are forced to sell."

Higher home prices may cause buyers to expand their house hunts to more affordable parts of their states or the country, like the Sunbelt. Twelve of the 16 cities that Realtor.com thinks will have double-digit price appreciation in 2025 are in the Southeast or Southwest.

2. Mortgage rates will stay above 6%

The average 30-year mortgage rate has dipped slightly, to 6.7% from a peak of 7.8% a year ago. Rates dropped to a historically low mark of 2.7% in 2021 and have mostly climbed since then. A pair of interest-rate cuts haven't significantly affected mortgage rates.

Next year's economy will be typified by lower interest rates and steady growth, Realtor.com predicted. The firm expects a rate cut in December and then a few more in early 2025.

That means Realtor.com researchers don't expect mortgage rates to drop dramatically next year, projecting that the 30-year will stay above the 6% threshold and be at 6.2% by the end of 2025.

3. Rents will be roughly the same

Rent growth may stall, as Realtor.com expects US apartment prices to fall 0.1%.

That's largely thanks to a major increase in rental unit inventory. Real-estate site Zumper found that the supply of new apartments in the US hit its highest level in five decades this summer.

"What we've seen over the past couple years is a large uptick in new multi-family construction, and they tend to be released all at once," McLaughlin said. "And so it can have very sharp and especially isolated impacts on rents — in particular — in urban areas where they are built."

Construction trends suggest the rental stock should increase in all parts of the country, but especially in the South, Realtor.com said. New homes and apartments could lead to lower rents in some cities and states.

Landlords may also struggle to raise rent substantially in a strong economy with lower mortgage rates, since renters could walk away from bidding wars and look at buying homes instead.

"When incomes grow enough in the rental segment, those renters tend to convert over to owners," McLaughlin said. "They typically won't use their incomes to bid up rents more — they'll just go and, if they can afford it, they'll go buy a house."

McLaughlin added: "Those that continue to stay renting, landlords don't have the ability necessarily to raise rents at the rates that price growth plays out in most markets."

Still, inventory increases may not translate to meaningful discounts on homes or rental units. Prices almost always rise over time along with the population size and money supply, so while apartments may be easier to find, those pining for pre-pandemic prices could be disappointed.

4. The market will be high on housing supply

Next year's housing market may be marked by sizable increases in home and apartment supply.

An 11.7% jump in existing home inventory and a 13.8% surge in single-family home starts will usher in the first "balanced" housing market in nine years, Realtor.com predicted. That would mean neither buyers nor sellers will have disproportionate leverage in 2025.

New single-family homes are expected to reach 1.1 million, the most since 2006. That should give prospective buyers more chances to score a home.

"While more inventory means buyers will likely have more time to make purchase decisions in 2025, in any market, a fast-acting buyer will have a higher likelihood of making the winning offer," Hale said in the report.

Homes have been in short supply for decades. Despite an uptick in construction, Freddie Mac estimated that the US needed 3.7 million more units to offset the shortage, as of last quarter.

Continued supply improvements mean there should be 4.1 months of homes available in 2025, up from 3.7 months now, Realtor.com said. The National Association of Realtors, a competing firm, reported last month that there was already 4.2 months' supply of existing homes available.

5. Home sales will surge

The housing boom during the pandemic devolved into a bust in 2022 and 2023 — a year in which home transactions reached their lowest levels in decades as housing affordability tanked.

Buyers and sellers are holding out for lower rates, and in the meantime, sales have stagnated.

"What I say to agents very often is, 'We're in a recession of transactions,' which is a different situation than the rest of the economy," Leo Pareja, the CEO of real-estate brokerage giant eXp Realty, said in a recent interview with Business Insider.

Many would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, while those hoping to move were reluctant to sacrifice their modest mortgages. In fact, about 84% of US mortgages are at rates below 5%, Pareja said. For that reason, many baby boomers have held onto their homes, giving younger buyers fewer options.

"If you're locked in at a 3.5% rate — even if you found your dream home, swapping that for a 6.8% rate is virtually impossible," Pareja said.

Lower mortgage rates and higher supply should spark a turnaround for home transactions. Pareja and his colleagues at eXp see sales activity rising 10% next year — far above Realtor.com's 1.5% forecast.

While the housing market overall may still favor sellers, more homes for sale can help buyers secure better deals and more concessions.

President-elect Donald Trump's policies may also be a tailwind for sales activity. Stock-market strategists mostly agree that tax cuts and deregulation will boost business confidence, and McLaughlin suspects that could rub off on homebuyers.

"If you're talking about the resale market, the existing-homes market, it's hard not to become optimistic about just the broader economy, because of things like tax cuts and other benefits to households that might put more money in their pocket at the end of the day," McLaughlin said.

He added, "That might encourage them to go out and either buy a home if they don't currently own one — or grade up to a house maybe they've been waiting to over the last few years."

• Realtor.com just unveiled its 2025 housing market outlook.
• Home values should rise slightly next year as property sales pick up due to lower mortgage rates.
• However, rent should stay in check due to a massive influx of apartment inventory.

Property owners, prospective buyers, renters, and landlords should expect more of the same in the new year — for the most part.

Home sales and the cost of buying or renting won't be much different in 2025, Realtor.com said in its housing forecast published on December 4. The firm's researchers see sales inching 1.5% higher while home prices climb 3.7% — in line with the rate they've risen since 2012 — and rent stays roughly flat at -0.1%. Mortgage rates should also slide slightly, though they'll stay north of 6%.

Those modestly positive projections are based on what Realtor.com expects to be a healthy economic backdrop typified by lower interest rates and steady growth. The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in December and then a few more times in the first half of the year, the firm said.

Even more vital is that no one, other than a few contrarians, is calling for an economic downturn. Barring a serious shock, home prices should stay elevated and continue to climb modestly, though they're well off their post-pandemic peak.

"Prices are going to keep rising because we're not going to have a recession," said Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, in an interview with Business Insider ahead of the report's release. "If you look at the times that home prices fall, it's typically only when there's a recession, and only when people are forced to sell."

In addition, it's unclear how President-elect Donald Trump's policies will affect the US housing market, though stock market strategists generally agree that tax cuts and deregulation will boost business confidence. McLaughlin thinks that may have a trickle-down effect for homebuyers.

"If you're talking about the resale market, the existing homes market, it's hard not to become optimistic about just the broader economy, because of things like tax cuts and other benefits to households that might put more money in their pocket at the end of the day," McLaughlin said. He added: "That might encourage them to go out and either buy a home, if they don't currently own one — or grade up to a house maybe they've been waiting to over the last few years."

High on supply

While that backdrop mostly represents business-as-usual, next year's housing market may be marked by a significant development: sizable increases in home and apartment supply.

A long-running home shortage is finally easing, as Realtor.com predicts that 2025 will be the first "balanced" housing market in nine years, meaning neither buyers nor sellers will have disproportionate leverage. That's thanks to an 11.7% jump in existing home inventory and a 13.8% surge in single-family home starts.

Home listings have been on the rise recently in most of the 50 largest US real-estate markets, which defies what Realtor.com had thought would be a big drop in inventory this year. However, there's still a shortfall of 3.7 million homes in the US, Freddie Mac estimates.

Continued supply improvements mean there should be 4.1 months of homes available in 2025, up from 3.7 months now, Realtor.com said. The National Association of Realtors, a competing firm, reported last month that there's already 4.2 months' supply of existing homes available.

Rental inventory is also on the rise, as real-estate site Zumper found that the supply of new apartments in the US hit its highest level in five decades this summer.

That dynamic should cause rent growth to stall, McLaughlin said. Home prices likely won't suffer a similar fate, in his view, because single-family supply will come online slower.

"What we've seen over the past couple years is a large uptick in new multi-family construction, and they tend to be released all at once," McLaughlin said. "And so it can have very sharp and especially isolated impacts on rents — in particular — in urban areas where they are built."

With more options, renters won't be forced to endure the abnormally large rent hikes that became more common during and after the pandemic.

Landlords might also struggle to raise rent substantially in a strong economy with lower mortgage rates since renters could walk away from bidding wars and look at houses instead.

"When incomes grow enough in the rental segment, those renters tend to convert over to owners," McLaughlin said. "They typically won't use their incomes to bid up rents more — they'll just go and, if they can afford it, they'll go buy a house."

McLaughlin continued: "So those that continue to stay renting, landlords don't have the ability necessarily to raise rents at the rates that price growth plays out in most markets."

Still, inventory increases likely won't translate to meaningful discounts on homes or rental units. Prices almost always rise over time along with the population size and money supply, so while apartments may be easier to find, those pining for pre-pandemic prices could be disappointed — even in an otherwise solid year.

• Apartment prices didn't move much in November, but they may slide in early 2025.
• Landlords tend to cut prices during the winter, and some are even giving unusual perks.
• Here are 12 cities where rent is affordable and on the decline.

Fewer people are moving during a seasonally slow stretch in the rental market, but those who are looking for a new apartment soon may be in luck.

Rent was flat or down across the US in November, a recent report from real-estate site Zumper found. The cost of one-bedroom apartments was little changed for a fourth straight month at $1,534, while two-bedroom setups were modestly cheaper, down 0.4% from October at $1,902.

These findings suggest that the long-standing stalemate on price between landlords and tenants is dragging on, though the path of least resistance may be lower later in the coming months.

"Most renters who were planning to move this year have already done so, and property owners tend to price down units to fill vacancies before the holidays," Zumper's team wrote in the report.

So, while softer demand and limited apartment supply have offset each other, property managers hoping to be fully booked may have to cut prices or get creative with concessions. One such perk — unusual as it may sound — is free groceries for a year, Zumper researchers noted.

"We anticipate that national rents will continue to see modest declines through the rest of this year and likely into the beginning of next year as well," Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades said in a statement for the report.

Even if renters score savings this winter, apartment prices remain 2.3% to 2.5% higher than they were a year ago, according to Zumper. However, that's still below the official inflation rate of 2.6% and well under the 4.9% jump in the shelter price index.

If price growth continues to fade next year, interest rates should tick down, and mortgage rates would follow suit. That would be a boon for homebuyers, though renters could also benefit since more people buying houses would likely mean less intense competition for apartments.

"Easing inflationary pressures could drive further declines to national rent prices and pave the way for additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve," Zumper researchers wrote.

12 cities with attractively priced apartments

Although the national rate for one-bedroom rent didn't budge this month, there are a dozen midsize or large US cities where apartments are reasonably priced and heading down.

Below are the 12 cities where rent was at least $250 cheaper than the national median price of $1,534 in November and less expensive than 12 months ago. Along with each market are its year-over-year and month-over-month rent changes and its median rent, the savings compared to the national median, and its rank among the 100 top US real-estate markets.

• Comcast is looking to separate from most of its cable networks.
• However, the media titan is keeping Bravo, which makes popular reality-TV shows.
• Here's why holding onto Bravo makes sense, even though the spinoff might not work.

Comcast wasn't bluffing about unloading its steadily declining cable TV networks.

The cable giant is officially planning to spin off most of its pay-TV channels, in a move that's the latest indictment of the sad state of the traditional TV business.

Notably, Comcast's NBCUniversal isn't biding all of its cable networks adieu, however. It's hanging onto Bravo, a purveyor of reality-TV shows like the "Real Housewives" series and "Vanderpump Rules."

The logic behind that decision is simple: Bravo's shows are inexpensive and popular, and they perform very well on Peacock, its budding streaming service.

In the deal, Comcast is holding onto Peacock, as well as its broadcast network, NBC. Those platforms are how Comcast distributes its all-important NFL rights, so they were never on the chopping block.

Though it may surprise some, Comcast has determined that Bravo is also too valuable to let go. Ten of the 50 most in-demand TV shows on Peacock this year are from Bravo, noted Brandon Katz, the senior entertainment industry strategist at data firm Parrot Analytics. Parrot's demand metric is based on third-party data, including search results, social-media content, and ratings sites.

"Bravo has a real brand identity that holds value to consumers as opposed to Syfy and USA Network, which have largely pulled back from scripted programming in recent years and are not as recognizable and resonant," Katz wrote, referencing two networks that Comcast is planning to spin off.

Bravo has also served as an anchor for Peacock's expansion into reality-TV originals, which has produced Bravo-style hits like "Love Island USA" and "The Traitors."

Ratings giant Nielsen found this summer that the sixth season of "Love Island USA" was the most-watched reality TV series among streaming originals, as it racked up over a billion minutes viewed and registered in the top-10 rankings for four straight weeks following its debut.

Without Bravo content, Peacock's reality-TV strategy would be left with a huge hole.

"Comcast likely views Bravo as an important piece of its Peacock strategy, with content that is too difficult to separate from the cable network without destroying any value the network might have," wrote Michael Hodel, a communication services analyst at Morningstar.

Why Comcast's spinoff might not pay off

The other reason why Bravo could have been a keeper is that it still generates cash that can help Comcast pay for the NBA broadcast rights it won over the summer.

"Given the cost-cutting that will likely be required to ameliorate the incoming expenses of NBCU's rich NBA deal, keeping that money-making asset in-house makes sense even if it's shrinking year-over-year," Katz wrote.

Still, Comcast's other cable channels likely turned a profit as well. That, plus the fact that those networks could be weaker on their own, has left some analysts stumped as to why this spinoff happened at all — other than to make investors happy.

Wall Street generally hates declining businesses, like the pay-TV networks that Comcast has been saddled with.

"Comcast will now have a cleaner and clearer growth story," analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson wrote to BI.

However, Moffett said that the spun-off networks likely make more sense with Comcast than on their own. Analyst Rich Greenfield of Lightshed Partners had made a similar point a few weeks ago.

"It will be challenging to separate NBC from the cable nets, especially for carriage negotiations," Moffett wrote.

Brian Wieser, a media and advertising analyst for Madison and Wall, struck a similar tone.

"Unless Comcast has a vision for what it would do with the capital to build up its remaining media business or how it will cause a merger of the business with another company's cable networks, the transaction would be dis-synergistic," Wieser wrote.

Whatever the fate of the spinoff, Comcast clearly sees the value of Bravo's scripted content, compared to the more challenged TV news business. Investors will ultimately judge whether the spinoff was worth it. As of midday Wednesday, they seemed unconvinced, as the company's shares were only up modestly hours after the news broke.