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Suspected sabotage of European undersea cables shows just how vulnerable these critical lines are to attack

Danish patrol vessel alongside a Chinese cargo ship in the open ocean.
Danish naval patrol vessels monitoring a Chinese bulk carrier suspected of involvement in damaging undersea cables.

MIKKEL BERG PEDERSEN/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

  • Undersea cables between Finland-Germany and Lithuania-Sweden were cut, potentially sabotaged.
  • The incident is one of a number of similar incidents in recent years, highlighting the vulnerability of these lines.
  • NATO is enhancing surveillance and coordination to protect critical underwater infrastructure.

Last month, an underwater data cable between Finland and Germany and another between Lithuania and Sweden were discovered cut within a day of each other. The damage to the cables, which European officials said appeared deliberate, highlights just how vulnerable these critical undersea lines are.

Yi Peng 3, a Chinese-flagged cargo ship that had departed from Russia's Ust-Luga port in the Gulf of Finland three days before and was tracked loitering near the two locations, is suspected in connection with the incident. It is said to have dragged an anchor over 100 miles, damaging the cables.

A Chinese cargo ship at sea.
China's Yi Peng 3 cargo ship.

Mikkel Berg Pedersen / Ritzau Scanpix / AFP

"No one believes that these cables were accidentally cut," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in November. "We have to assume it is sabotage," he added.

In a joint statement with his Finnish counterpart, Pistorius said the damage comes at a time when "our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors."

As Russia received added scrutiny, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russian involvement in the incident, saying that "it is quite absurd to continue to blame Russia for everything without any reason."

Critical but vulnerable

In recent years, a string of incidents involving damage to underwater infrastructure has occurred, many of them in the same region.

Last year, Newnew Polar Bear, another Chinese cargo ship, damaged a gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland. China's investigation concluded the damage was accidental; however, Estonia and Finland's investigation is still ongoing.

In 2022, a Norwegian underwater data cable was damaged, and there were indications of human involvement in that incident. In 2021, a 2.5-mile-long section of another data cable disappeared from waters north of Norway.

The incident that received the most attention, though, was the sabotage of the Nord Steam gas pipelines between Russia and Germany in September 2022. There have been indications that Ukrainian elements might have been behind the sabotage, but this has not been confirmed.

The disturbed water surface amid the Nord Stream pipeline leak
The Nord Stream pipeline leak.

Danish Defence Command

Underwater infrastructure is increasingly critical to modern life. The vast majority of internet traffic passes through underwater fiber-optics cables, and underwater energy pipelines are common in many regions. But protecting this infrastructure, which can stretch for hundreds or thousands of miles, is difficult.

"There's no way that we can have NATO presence alone all these thousands of kilometers of undersea, offshore infrastructure," then-NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg said in 2023. Yet, NATO can be better at collecting and sharing information and intelligence "and connecting the dots," he added.

Indeed, NATO and the European Union are trying to do that.

In May this year, NATO held its first Critical Undersea Infrastructure Network meeting and launched its Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure to better coordinate the capabilities of its members and increase collaboration between them.

Further, the EU is funding several initiatives to develop uncrewed surface and underwater systems to surveil critical areas and detect threats early.

But there are also legal difficulties to protecting underwater infrastructure, as it usually traverses the territorial waters of several countries and can also pass through international waters.

The usual suspects

Although it can often be difficult to establish a culprit whenever such infrastructure is damaged, officials have pointed out that Russian activity near underwater cables has intensified.

In 2017, the US admiral in charge of NATO's submarine forces said the alliance was "seeing Russian underwater activity in the vicinity of undersea cables that I don't believe we have ever seen."

The war in Ukraine has added another dimension to this matter.

"There are heightened concerns that Russia may target undersea cables and other critical infrastructure in an effort to disrupt Western life, to gain leverage against those nations that are providing security to Ukraine," David Cattler, NATO's intelligence chief, said last year.

A British warship sailing alongside a Russian spy ship.
British Royal Navy warship HMS Diamond shadowing the Russian spy ship Yantar.

LPhot Kyle Heller/UK MOD

Russia has developed a number of underwater capabilities and has a specialized unit, the Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, committed to the task.

GUGI, as the operation is also known, is an elite Russian unit that employs specialized surface and underwater vessels capable of underwater sabotage and surveillance. Yantar, one of GUGI's special-purpose spy vessels, which nominally acts as a survey vessel, has often been spotted near underwater cables.

Furthermore, a joint investigation released in 2023 by the public broadcasters of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland discovered that Russia, over the past decade, employed a fleet of 50 boats โ€” masking as research or commercial vessels โ€” to gather intelligence on allied underwater cables and wind farms in the Nordic region.

"When you look at the evidence of their activities now, the places they are doing surveys, overlaid with this critical undersea infrastructure โ€ฆ you can see that they are at least signaling that they have the intent and the capability to take action in this domain if they choose," Cattler said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

NATO air policing missions around Estonia see F-35 and Rafale jets intercept multiple Russian aircraft

An image released by the Dutch defense ministry of an F35 and a Russian aircraft.
An image released by the Dutch defense ministry of an F35 and a Russian aircraft.

Dutch Ministry of Defense

  • A series of NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen F-35 and Rafale jets called into action.
  • French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian IL-18 aircraft off Estonia's coast on Friday.
  • Dutch F-35s intercepted three Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

A series of recent NATO air policing missions around Estonia has seen Dutch and French fighter jets called into action to intercept Russian aircraft.

Two French Rafale jets intercepted a Russian Ilyushin Il-18 airliner off the coast of Estonia on Friday, the General Staff of the French Armed Forces said in a post on X.

NATO Air Command said the mission was the Rafale's first scramble since it began an air policing mission based out of ล iauliai, Lithuania.

It comes after Dutch F-35 fighter jets intercepted a number of Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea last week.

The Dutch defense ministry said two F-35s stationed in Estonia were scrambled after three Russian planes โ€” an Antonov An-72, a Su-24, and an Ilyushin Il-20 โ€” were identified in the region.

Dutch F-35s have been keeping a watch over NATO airspace on the alliance's eastern flank since the start of December, the ministry said.

It's not the first time such an incident has occurred in recent months.

Norwegian F-35s were called into action in November in response to Russian aircraft "not adhering to international norms" off the coast of Norway, NATO's Air Command said at the time.

Italy's air force also intercepted a Russian Coot-A plane flying over the Baltic Sea on the same day.

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Rafales scrambled yesterday to intercept a ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ IL-18 aircraft off the coast of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช, the first scramble since they began their #NATO Air Policing mission in ล iauliai ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Allies ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท and ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น are combining their efforts in ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น protecting the airspace in the region pic.twitter.com/K8XVY77knZ

โ€” NATO Air Command (@NATO_AIRCOM) December 14, 2024

The Rafale

The Dassault Rafale is a French twin-jet fighter aircraft that can operate from both an aircraft carrier and a land base.

It entered service with the French Navy in 2004 and with the French Air Force in 2006.

It is used to carry out a variety of missions, including air policing, deep strikes, and reconnaissance, according to the manufacturer.

The F-35

The F-35, which is billed as the "most advanced fighter jet in the world" by manufacturer Lockheed Martin, has faced criticism from Elon Musk.

The Tesla CEO said on X in late November that the jet's design "was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people."

"This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes," Musk wrote, adding: "And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed."

Some reports have suggested that Musk may be eyeing the F-35 program, and possibly other fighter jets, for potential spending cuts through his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.

Although he would likely face an uphill battle to do so, as Business Insider previously reported.

Read the original article on Business Insider

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte holds the closing press conference at the NATO headquarters on the second day of the NATO Foreign Affairs Ministers' meeting
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte holds the closing press conference at the NATO headquarters on the second day of the NATO Foreign Affairs Ministers' meeting

Omar Havana/Getty Images

  • NATO may raise defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, according to the FT.
  • Trump has threatened to leave NATO if it does not spend more on defense.
  • Mark Rutte, NATO's head, said that Europe understands it must do more on shared security.

NATO members may increase their defense spending to 3% of GDP, in part due to pressure by President-elect Donald Trump.

Three people involved in the preliminary talks told the Financial Times that NATO intends to make a short-term pledge to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, moving to 3% by 2030.

NATO countries are committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defense but several, including Italy and Spain, have fallen short.

This year, Poland has led the alliance on defense, spending 4.12% of GDP followed by Estonia at 3.43%, and the US at 3.38%, according to Reuters.

The talks are in the preliminary stages, according to people speaking to the FT, and will be formally agreed upon at the NATO summit in June.

The discussions to increase spending come in the wake of Trump's impending return to the White House.

Trump has long been skeptical of the alliance, and threatened to withdraw from NATO during his first term if members did not start spending more on defense.

Last month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Europe understands it must do more to ensure shared security. "That starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities," he said.

When asked about NATO's defense spending, Rutte told the FT earlier this month that he had a number in mind but did not clarify what it would be. "But clearly, when you look at the capability targets, [when] you look at the gaps still thereโ€‰โ€ฆโ€‰It is clear that, with 2%, you cannot get there," he said.

Rutte was appointed NATO head earlier this year and has gained a reputation as a "Trump whisperer" after successfully pacifying the President-elect's threat to leave the alliance in 2018.

NATO defense spending has accelerated in recent years, but experts told BI earlier this year that that has little to do with Trump.

"Pretty much all of the increases, I would say, since 2014 are a response to Russia," said Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former NATO official.

William Alberque, a former NATO arms control expert and now director of strategy, technology, and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BI's Mia Jankowicz early this year that some officials may be quietly pleased with the external pressure from Trump, allowing them to scapegoat him for their already-planned spending decisions.

Representatives for NATO did not immediately reply to a request by BI for comment.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump returns to Europe for the 1st time following election win for Notre Dame's reopening

President-elect Donald Trump will be in France this weekend to celebrate the reopening of the famed Notre Dame Cathedral alongside several world leaders, marking his first foreign trip following his election victory last month.

Trump announced his plan on Monday to attend the celebratory reopening on his social media app Truth Social, which comes five years after a fire devastated the cathedral in 2019. The 700-million-euro restoration project was funded by donations from 150 countries and involved the application of carpentry methods dating back to the 13th century. Sources familiar with the president-elect's plans told Fox News that Trump's attendance was at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Security will be tight for the invite-only festivities that are set to begin Saturday afternoon, Paris Police Chief Laurent Nuรฑez said in an interview published by French media outlet Le Parisien. He said many of the measures will mimic those deployed during the Paris Olympics.

FIRST LOOK AT NOTRE DAME CATHEDRAL'S RESTORED INTERIOR FIVE YEARS AFTER DEVASTATING FIRE

Nuรฑez also indicated that about 50 heads of state would be in attendance but did not specify whom or from which countries. President Biden, however, is not expected to attend, but first lady Jill Biden will be there.

Macron was the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump after his election win over Vice President Kamala Harris, CNN reported. The pair's relationship heading into Trump's second term will build on what the two established during Trump's first term.

While the two traded barbs during Trump's first term in the White House, Macron has shown a level of deference โ€“ at times โ€“ toward Trump that other NATO leaders have not. Reporters have described the pair's relationship as a "bromance," and in 2017, the two participated in a Bastille Day military parade in Paris aimed at highlighting the longstanding alliance between France and the U.S.ย 

AFTER TRUMP WIN, FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON ASKS IF EU IS โ€˜READY TO DEFENDโ€™ EUROPEAN INTERESTS

Trump's push to get other NATO countries to contribute more money to defense efforts โ€“ and his overall skepticism of the alliance โ€“ has been a point of contention between Trump and other NATO leaders. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for instance, clashed with Trump over his claims Germany was not contributing enough to NATO's defense efforts.ย 

During a NATO summit in 2019, a cohort of global leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, then-Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and France's Macron, were caught on a hot-mic seemingly making fun of Trump for engaging in long, rambling press conferences. The year prior, during a speech at the U.N., audible laughter could be heard after he said his administration had accomplished more in its first two years than any other administration in history.

However, heading into Trump's second term, world leaders seem to be aware of the importance of forging a good relationship with him. Just last week, Trudeau traveled to Trump's Florida resort after the president-elect threatened to slap tariffs on Canadian products over concerns about illegal immigration.ย 

TRUMP TRUMPS BIDEN AS PRESIDENT-ELECT OVERSHADOWS WHITE HOUSE INCUMBENT ON WORLD STAGE

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Earlier this week, new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed Britain's and the U.S.' "special relationship," before recalling when the president-elect "graciously hosted me for dinner in Trump Tower," during an annual banquet hosted by the Lord Mayor of London.ย 

Trump's arrival in the French capital coincides with Macron's strategic efforts to stabilize a government in turmoil. Following the ousting of his prime minister through a no-confidence vote, Macron now confronts increasing demands for his own resignation.ย 

NATO is planning a fleet of sea drones to protect critical underwater infrastructure

A Sea Baby drone moves through the water during a presentation by Ukraine's Security Service in the Kyiv region, Ukraine on March 5.
NATO is planning a fleet of sea drones meant to monitor threats to critical underwater infrastructure.

AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

  • NATO is planning to launch a fleet of uncrewed naval ships, a military commander said.
  • Pierre Vandier told Defense News they will monitor and protect critical underwater infrastructure.
  • Gas pipelines and undersea cables have been damaged in recent years, with some suspecting sabotage.

NATO is planning to roll out a fleet of uncrewed naval ships to protect critical underwater infrastructure.

Adm. Pierre Vandier, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, shared the development with Defense News on Tuesday.

He told the outlet his team was in the early stages of establishing the drone fleet, but aimed to launch it before a NATO summit next June.

Vandier compared the concept to police CCTV cameras that are mounted on streetlights in high-crime areas to capture evidence of criminal activity.

"The technology is there to make this streetlighting with USVs," he said, using the acronym for uncrewed surface vessels.

Vandier added that the goal was that "NATO can see and monitor its environment daily," especially across the Baltic and Mediterranean seas.

The development comes after several incidents of critical underwater infrastructure being damaged or severed over the last three years, with Russia sometimes suspected of being behind it.

In September 2022, a series of underwater explosions in the Baltic Sea rendered two Nord Stream gas pipelines, designed to transport gas from Russia to Germany, inoperable.

Danish, Swedish, and German authorities launched investigations and concluded that the incident was an act of sabotage. Denmark and Sweden closed their investigations due to a lack of evidence or jurisdiction, while Germany is continuing its probe and says it has identified two suspects.

Last month, two undersea fiber-optic communication cables were also damaged in the Baltic Sea, in a suspected act of sabotage.

The cables included a 135-mile internet link between Lithuania and Sweden's Gotland Island, and a 730-mile cable carrying data between Germany and Finland.

A NATO official toldย Business Insiderย in September that threats to subsea infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines and data cables, had increased since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

NATO has since taken steps to strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure and prepare for any disruptions.

It created a NATO-EUย task forceย on the resilience of critical infrastructure in January 2023, established an infrastructure coordinationย cellย in February 2023 to map vulnerabilities, and set up the Maritimeย Centerย for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure this May.

NATO is also "stepping up patrols," Commander Arlo Abrahamson, a spokesperson for NATO's Allied Maritime Command, told Reuters this month.

Regarding the drone fleet, Vandier didn't specify the types of USVs or their overall number, but said that the US is already using a similar concept.

The US Navy established Task Group 59.1 in January to test and deploy uncrewed systems to improve maritime security in the Middle East.

"So somehow it's not very risky," Vandier said, adding that "everything is known and sold, so it is much more a matter of adoption than technology."

NATO's Allied Command Transformation's Public Affairs Office didn't respond to a request for comment.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Zelenskyy said Ukraine could join NATO without Article 5 applying to its occupied territory

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gestures during a joint press conference in Kyiv.
Zelenskyy said Article 5 might not apply to all of Ukraine's territory if it joins NATO, to not drag other member states into war.

Viktor Kovalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushing this week for NATO to invite Ukraine to join its alliance.
  • He said on Sunday that NATO's self-defense pact wouldn't have to apply to Ukraine's occupied territory.
  • His proposals come amid anticipation that Trump's incoming team will stall Ukraine's NATO accession.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that his country could join NATO without the alliance's collective self-defense agreement applying to its territory occupied by Russia.

That suggestion means that Article 5, which states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, wouldn't automatically drag the rest of the alliance into war with Moscow if Ukraine joins.

Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said that any invitation for Ukraine to join NATO still has to recognize all of its territory as Ukrainian, including areas occupied by Russia.

He said his reason was that NATO/the alliance couldn't extend an invitation to only a "part of the territory of Ukraine," per Ukrainian media.

Zelenskyy added that Ukraine "would never accept" an accession plan that says otherwise.

"But we understand that Article 5, when you're a member of NATO, cannot apply to the entire territory of Ukraine during wartime, as countries are against the risks of being drawn into the war," he said.

Such a proposal could essentially split Ukraine into two regions as far as NATO is concerned. The region that includes all of Ukraine's current territory, like Kyiv and Kharkiv, would have to be defended. There would be no obligation for the rest, which is the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in the east.

Ukraine launched a campaign this week to pressure NATO into extending an invitation to Kyiv, a move the alliance already promised in 2008 would eventually happen. NATO has not provided a specific timeline for when that invitation might be extended.

On Friday, Zelenskyy told Sky News that he would be willing to freeze the front lines if whatever territory Ukraine still holds is placed under the "NATO umbrella."

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," he said at the time.

This indicates that Ukraine would cede its occupied land, at least temporarily, in exchange for a cease-fire with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

It's a concept that Zelenskyy has adamantly rejected before.

In April, he called a land swap for peace a "very primitive idea." Discussion of such a plan emerged that month because of reports that President-elect Donald Trump was thinking of championing it. He was still running for president at the time.

Now, the Ukrainian president is recalibrating his conditions for NATO membership. This reconsideration comes as US support for Ukraine sits on the cusp of extreme change. His renewed effort to join the alliance comes amid anticipation that Trump and his advisors would pressure Kyiv into negotiating a quick end to the fighting while withholding membership indefinitely.

There are, however, fears that Russia may renege on a cease-fire โ€” as Putin has done several times in the past โ€” or that such a deal could create a split of Ukraine reminiscent of Cold-War Germany.

Many who want an immediate resolution to the fighting in Ukraine hope that it will relieve the economic strain the war has brought to the globe.

Ukraine is a major supplier of corn and wheat, and while a US-led corridor has allowed it to start selling much of its accumulated stock, its exports are estimated to take several years to hit pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, European reliance on Russian energy has led to a complicated situation, where Ukraine is still allowing Russian gas to transit through its borders to Western customers despite the war.

That arrangement, agreed upon in 2019, is set to expire at the end of the year. Both Moscow and Kyiv have said they're not ready to renew the contract, though there is talk from Ukraine of extending it.

Several European countries, including Slovakia and Hungary, expressed concern that their energy markets could be skewered by a nonrenewal, though many are starting to replace their gas by buying from the US and Canada instead. Hungary, in particular, hopes a pipeline through Turkey will help to sustain its supply of Russian gas.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Zelenskyy suggests plan to end 'hot phase' of Ukraine war

Zelenskyy amended his proposal for Ukrainian accession to NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Global Images Ukraine/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested a way the "hot phase" of the war in Ukraine could end.
  • It would include unoccupied parts of Ukraine coming "under the NATO umbrella."
  • Zelenskyy has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that the "hot phase" of the Russia-Ukraine war could end if unoccupied parts of Ukraine came "under the NATO umbrella."

In an interview with Sky News' chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay published on Friday, Zelenskyy said: "If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we should take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control."

"That's what we need to do fast. And then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically," he said, adding that no such offer had been made.

But Zelenskyy stressed that NATO membership would need to be offered to Ukraine as a whole, within its internationally recognized borders.

"You can't give invitation to just one part of a country," he said. "Why? Because thus you would recognize that Ukraine is only that territory of Ukraine, and the other one is Russia."

He also said any cease-fire would need to guarantee that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not come back to try to take further Ukrainian land, which he said would happen if NATO did not "immediately" cover the parts of Ukraine that would remain under Kyiv's control in the proposed plan.

Zelenskyy has long rejected the idea of ceding land to end the war.

In October, he outlined a victory plan for the war that included a refusal to concede territory to Russia and an invitation to join NATO, which he called "the first and very important point."

Earlier in the year, Zelenskyy also dismissed Donald Trump's reported secret plan to end the war by ceding territory to Russia as "primitive."

"If the deal is that we just give up our territories, and that's the idea behind it, then it's a very primitive idea," Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axel Springer media outlets. "I think if he really has a formula and an approach on how to end the war quickly. I need very strong arguments. I don't need a fantastic idea. I need a real idea because people's lives are at stake."

Some reports have suggested that a "West German model" has been discussed as a means of offering NATO membership to Ukraine.

Such a plan could see NATO membership offered to a divided country.

No formal proposal has been made.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Russia's invasion is showing the West war isn't just about having the best weapons — it's also about having more

Ukrainian soldier aiming a machine gun with an ammo box nearby.
The war in Ukraine has shown that quantity has a quality of its own and that it isn't enough to invest in the most exquisite weapons.

Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine is teaching Western militaries a big lesson.
  • The West has, for decades, focused on super high quality gear over sheer volume.
  • But it needs to invest more in quantity if it wants to defend against Russia, warfare experts said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is showing the West the value of quantity over quality.

The West, over the past decades, has focused on the quality of military equipment over stockpiles, prioritizing high-tech and specialized gear over sheer volume. But as the saying goes, quantity has a quality of its own.

"We just have not been stockpiling weapons for this kind of long-duration conflict, which, to be frank, Russia and China have been," said former Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, a warfare strategist.

The result, he said, is the West is not prepared for a large-scale war.

The Western approach

The US reacted to the Soviet Union's huge mass of weapory last century with the mindset that since "we can't achieve the same level of mass. We're going to have to have more technologically sophisticated stuff," George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said. That thinking, for instance, is where the Abrams tank came from: a search for heavily armored firepower rather than mass-produced Soviet T-series tanks.

And in the aftermath of the Cold War, Western stockpiles of weaponry diminished and industry shrunk, leaving it less prepared to build large quantities of munitions and equipment. NATO defense spending has largely dropped while China and Russia spend increasingly more.

The West's approach proved successful in recent conflicts, but these weren't great power conflicts.

"The American military wants to go out and win fast, and our modern image of the preferred kind of war is sort of Operation Desert Storm," Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and the director of research in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, told BI.

In such wars, he said, "the whole point is you're not going to be slogging it out for months and years on end." Instead, you expect to be successful and fast, he said. "It's sort of like a football team planning to go out and score four touchdowns in the first half just to end the game."

The problem is that thinking like that leads to war planning around a framework that no longer prioritizes surge capacity and replenishment.

"We got lazy," Barros said. "Sure, you have better equipment, but it's horrifically expensive, and you therefore get less of it."

A lesson from Ukraine

Russia has shown in Ukraine that it is willing to continue a grinding, brutal fight even at significant cost, and it appears to have the capacity to keep going.

Russian tank Ukraine
Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces.

ANATOLII STEPANOV via Getty Images

In any sort of protracted war, like it could be with Russia, "your ability to sustain and protract the war actually becomes key," Barros said. In that situation, having systems that might not be as good but that you have a lot of, "that's actually what's going to make the difference."

The West, he said, can't rely solely on big-ticket items "unless you have a very decisive war immediately right out the gate." If a fight isn't won immediately, factors like who can sustain sufficient artillery fire come into play.

"Assuming that you don't decisively defeat the Russians in the opening phase of the war," Barros said, "you're going to burn through all your ATACMS and HIMARS missiles and artillery ammunition." NATO may fight differently than Ukraine, with more capability, but it is still critical to have mass.

Steps for the West

That doesn't mean scrapping the sophisticated tech like fifth-generation fighter jets and stealthy submarines, but investing more in ammunition and lower-value equipment can't be overlooked.

Three Ukrainian troops watch as a rocket is launched in front of them.
Ukrainian soldiers supervise as a M142 HIMARS launches a rocket.

Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

"You can't exclusively have a relatively small and limited number of highly specialized systems at the expense of not having, at mass, the regular workhorse stuff," Barros said.

To deter Russia and China, "we probably have to, at minimum, go back to Cold War levels of defense expenditure," he said.

O'Hanlon said the West needs to invest more in defense manufacturing while also preserving high-value assets: "Those things have not become unimportant just because we realized that other things are also important."

The good news is that prioritizing those other elements is not expensive. "That's why a country like Russia, with a pretty mediocre GDP, can actually be doing better than we are in some of these areas just because they've prioritized them," he said.

Slow progress

Russia's war in Ukraine and its tremendous demands on the defense industry have prompted a surge in weaponry manufacturing in the West, though one that warfare experts and many lawmakers describe as insufficient.

William Alberque, a warfare expert at the Stimson Center described Western production as "a critical concern that has not been addressed enough," though he said NATO allies were "shifting" in the right direction.

The West has severe backlogs and a lack of manufacturing capacity even when countries are willing to spend. And while it struggles to revive that capability, countries like Russia are boosting production and getting equipment from North Korea and Iran.

Russia has repeatedly threatened the West, and some European NATO members have warned that Russia could attack the continent in the next few years, especially if it wins in Ukraine.

How a Russian attack might look is unclear, and many warfare analysts and military officials speculate that Russia would not want an all-out war with NATO.

A still from a video shows a Russian serviceman wearing a face scarf and helmet turning towards the camera with his hands on his head with a fireball in the air behind him
In an image taken from a video distributed by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service in October, a Russian 120mm mortar crew fires toward a Ukrainian position.

Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

But the US and its allies are still closely watching Ukraine, eager to learn lessons for a possible fight, and a key lesson is quantity.

Alberque said the West fell into a "long-term myth" that "you can get away with fewer pieces of incredibly expensive, incredibly advanced equipment in a war with Russia or in a war with China."

Instead, "the number of vehicles you have actually really counts and the quality matters a lot less."

Ultimately, he said, "this idea of having a small number of very, very high technology super tanks or super ships or super planes is gradually falling away. And people are saying: 'Oh, shit. It really is about numbers.'"

Read the original article on Business Insider

A startup making spy drones being used in Ukraine got a funding injection from NATO

Catapult for the Tekever AR3 drone takeoff.
Catapult for the Tekever AR3 drone takeoff.

Tekever

  • A drone maker received $74 million in a funding round involving NATO.
  • Tekever's gear has been used in Ukraine, a vast proving ground for drone warfare.
  • Its drones are not weapons, focusing on surveillance and intelligence.

A dronemaking startup whose equipment is being used by the Ukrainian military got a cash injection from NATO.

Tekever, a Portuguese firm, raised $74 million from a group of investors, including NATO's Innovation Fund.

The company has said its equipment is being used in Ukraine though not which of its models were sent.

Though its equipment has military uses, Tekever doesn't produce weapons: the drones are for intelligence-gathering.

The war in Ukraine has become a proving ground for drone warfare. Drones are used for surveillance, to carry light supplies, for targeting assistance, and as weapons.

The battlefield features drones from around the world, spanning cheap consumer drones, high-end military hardware, and improvised systems.

The UK Ministry of Defence posted an image of Tekever's AR3 drone in March while announcing a support package for Ukraine โ€” perhaps giving a hint at what was sent.

A new ยฃ60 million package of military support from the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine will provide advanced new surveillance drones to support ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ's Armed Forces.

It will also include ยฃ20 million to provide air defence systems to help keep Ukraine's skies safe. pic.twitter.com/LyUCIdVYjZ

โ€” Ministry of Defence ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (@DefenceHQ) March 22, 2024

Tekever's CEO, Ricardo Mendes, said an interview with City A.M. in May that the firm "started working with Ukrainian forces some time ago, after the war started."

Long range, resistant to jamming

"All our products are very prepared to fly to long distances, to cover fast areas, and do surveillance," Mendes said. "And that's basically the primary mission that our drones are doing in Ukraine."

"They're very resilient," said Mendes of the systems. "So they are very autonomous. They can fly even in situations where you don't have a GPS signal, or you don't have comms, and so they're very resistant to fly in very denied environments where there's jamming and all those military types of environments."

Tekever advertises the AR3ย as launchable either from ships or on land. Ukraine doesn't have a conventional navy, so it would likely not be able to use the ship-borne functionality.

The company says it can fly for 16 hours, with a range of 62 miles. It weighs 55 pounds and has a wingspan of 11 feet.

Mothership

The company is working on its largest drone yet, the ARX, which can carry swarms of smaller drones to extend operational capabilities. Mendes calls this the "holy grail of surveillance," combining speed, payload capacity, and adaptability.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine since early 2022 has redefined drone warfare.

The key role of drones is fuelling a drone arms race between Russia and Ukraine, as well as their allies.

Business Insider reported in September that a command in Ukraine predicted that AI advances would lead to drone warfare becoming "truly unmanned" within months.

Tekever's drones have also been used by the British government to track migrant smugglers in the English Channel.

Tekever did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for an interview.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump taps former acting AG Matthew Whitaker as NATO ambassador

President-elect Trump on Wednesday tapped former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker to become U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in his new administration.ย 

Trump described Whitaker, who is from Iowa, as "a strong warrior and loyal Patriot, who will ensure the United States' interests are advanced and defended."

"Matt will strengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability - He will put AMERICA FIRST," Trump said in a statement. "I have full confidence in Mattโ€™s ability to represent the United States with Strength, Integrity, and unwavering Dedication. I look forward to working closely with him as we continue to promote PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, Freedom, and Prosperity around the World."

US ALLIES ACCUSE RUSSIA OF 'ESCALATING HYBRID ACTIVITIES' AGAINST NATO, EU NATIONS AFTER DATA CABLES SEVERED

"Matt is also the former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa, and is a graduate of the University of Iowa with a B.A., MBA and J.D., where he played football, and received the Big Ten Medal of Honor," Trump added.ย 

The appointment Wednesday comes at a significant juncture for the alliance.ย 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday formally lowered the threshold for the Kremlinโ€™s use of its nuclear weapons, a move that follows President Bidenโ€™s decision to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russian territory with American-supplied long-range missiles.

The new doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power.

US EMBASSY IN KYIV CLOSED AS 'POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AIR ATTACK' LOOMS

Russiaโ€™s Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles early Tuesday at a military facility in Russia's Bryansk region that borders Ukraine, adding that air defenses shot down five of them and damaged one more. Ukraine's military claimed the strike hit a Russian ammunition depot.

Putin first announced changes in the nuclear doctrine in September, when he chaired a meeting discussing the proposed revisions. He has previously warned the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory would mean that Russia and NATO are at war.

Whitaker served as Acting Attorney General from November 2018 to February 2019.

That was after Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigned at Trump's request amid Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into alleged Russian collusion by the Trump campaign. Whitaker was Sessions' chief of staff and was critical of the probe.ย 

Trump later nominated Bill Barr as the permanent replacement to head the Justice Department following Sessions' departure.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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